Funds Hold Most Cash Since GFC
Fund manager cash holdings are at crisis-bottom levels, typically a sound bullish indicator. But will history predict the future this time?
Read more...Category Archives: Investment outlook
US Oil Futures Plunge by Nearly 7%, to $26.55 a Barrel; Stocks Swoon
Oil has ratcheted down again and stocks are getting hammered.
Read more...Investment Manager GMO Debunks Mythology of “Sound Finance,” or Deficit Hawkery
Yves here. Sometimes it is best to let things speak for themselves. In that spirit, I am embedding a very important paper by the well-respected investment management firm GMO which debunks the tenets of “sound finance,” meaning the claim that governments need to balance their budgets. I expect to be referring to it regularly, particularly […]
Read more...Edward Lambert: Forecasting the Stock Market thru Effective Demand
Dave here. The markets have taken a beating in 2016, and while the fallacy of thinking the market=the economy seems like an oversimplification, this post provides a competing viewpoint that, without taking a position in affirmation or dissent, I thought I would offer up for discussion. For some background, you can read Edward’s other posts […]
Read more...Marshall Auerback: What US Treasury Yields Might Be Signalling
Bond yields warn of deflation. How real is this worry?
Read more...Wolf Richter: Welcome to 2016! With Just a Touch of Mayhem for Stocks
Stocks took a beating around the globe on the first day back in 2016. Hopes of a better year start out inauspiciously.
Read more...Wolf Richter: “Distress” in US Corporate Debt Spikes to 2009 Level
Experts expected bankruptcies of highly levered borrowers in 2013-2014, but cheap refis under ZIRP bailed them out. We are again at peak leverage, but this time, there’s no prospect of lower rates to provide a rescue.
Read more...Wolf Richter: Debt Fueled Stock Buybacks Now Eating into Earnings
Companies with investment-grade credit ratings – the cream-of-the-crop “high-grade” corporate borrowers – have gorged on borrowed money. Interest on that mountain of debt, which grew another 4% in the second quarter, is now eating their earnings like never before.
Read more...Harvard Business Review Ranks Amazon’s Jeff Bezos as Most Predatory CEO
A new Harvard Business Review ranking shows Amazon’s Jeff Bezos as being the top predator among CEOs.
Read more...Frances Coppola: The Great Yield Divergence
Puzzling over the Great Divergence of real and nominal yields. Ever since the Great Depression, nominal yields have been persistently above real yields Yet in the previous 200 years, despite periods of fiat currency and high inflation, real and nominal yields didn’t diverge. Why do they now?
Read more...Wolf Richter: This is When Bonds Go Kaboom!
It’s getting tougher out there for our QE and ZIRP-coddled corporate junk-bond heroes.
Read more...Wolf Richter: Bankers Threaten Fed with Layoffs if it Doesn’t Raise Rates
Yes, banks really do want the Fed to raise interest rates.
Read more...Low Unemployment with Falling Capacity Utilization… Not a Good Sign for Fed Liftoff
Why the Fed should delay its long-anticipated “liftoff”.
Read more...Nomi Prins: Mexico, Federal Reserve Policy and Danger Ahead for Emerging Markets
Mexico’s problems could again ripple through Latin America where eroding confidence, volatility, and US dollar strength are already hurting economies and markets.
Read more...Wolf Richter: Corporate Revenue Recession Spreads past Dollar, Energy
Now that 495 of the S&P 500 companies have reported second quarter earnings, something has become abundantly clear: 2015 is going to be a nasty year for corporate revenues.
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