This story, which describes the in extremis sale of $4 billion of bonds by a Bear Stearns hedge fund, “Bear’s Fund Is Facing Mortgage Losses,” is currently the lead story on the Wall Street Journal’s website, so it is likely to get page one coverage in the print edition. The fund, the High-Grade Structured Credit […]
Read more...Bill Gross, storied bond investor and head of PIMCO, a fund manager with nearly $700 billion under management, made an important observation in a Financial Times comment, namely, that interest rate policy is having a very different impact on businesses and consumers. While the two groups were (most of the time) similarly affected, now interest […]
Read more...Martin Wolf, in a Financial Times comment, “Villains and victims of global capital flows,” looks at the two competing theories of the causes of global imbalances. One is the savings glut story, in which parsimonious Chinese and Japanese force the US to consume to keep the world from falling into recession. This view is favored […]
Read more...We have been muttering on this blog for some time that the powers that be should take more interest in money supply, and it appears that European central bankers are coming around to our point of view. David Altig in “Putting The Money Back In Monetary Policy” at Macroblog has a very useful, detailed without […]
Read more...Even though the US Treasury market has taken a nasty downward move through an important level that many participants see as the beginning of a bear market in bonds (which will inevitably lead to a bear market in equities), actors in other sectors of the financial markets seem remarkably sanguine, at least so far. Is […]
Read more...We have been saying for some time that a housing recovery was quite a way off, and official opinion has finally caught up with our views (or more accurately, has decided to acknowledge obvious but unpleasant reality). The Weekend Wall Street Journal reports in a page one story, “Economists See Housing Slump Enduring Longer.” The […]
Read more...We observed that the sharp fall in the bond markets Thursday, which was triggered not by news, but by a collective recognition that credit was too cheap, seemed to many to be an inflection point, an end of a long cycle of falling interest rates. This development is important not just for fixed income investors, […]
Read more...For quite some time, we have written about indifference to risk, unjustifiable asset prices in many markets, and high levels of liquidity all as different aspects of what John Authers called “overvalued credit” meaning overly bullish (more accurately speculative) conditions in debt markets which fuelled overheated conditions in asset classes that could be financed (and […]
Read more...This story by Tim Bond in Thursday’s Financial Times, provides an excellent explanation of how a change in the universe of bond investors has produced new outcomes, like a difficult-to-explain negative yield curve. It also looks prescient in light of the plummet in long-dated Treasuries that day. Bond’s article says that “long term bonds are […]
Read more...The blog Long or Short Capital is amusing and often astute (and we all need comic relief sometimes). From “I’m Calling the Top today, my ten signs“: 1. Shares of Odyssey Marine Corporation (NYSE: OMR) recently doubled when they announced they found sunken treasure. 2. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (supposedly smart people) paid 38x EBITDA for […]
Read more...Readers may notice today that we are a bit heavy on Financial Times stories. In part, that’s because the FT has a healthy respect for the fixed income markets. Political consultant and pretty scary guy James Carville once remarked, “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President […]
Read more...Edward Charles Ponzi Jr. occasionally comments at Angry Bear, and a recent submission became a post of its own. Ponzi makes several observations: what we have counted as growth (as in GDP growth) may be largely inflation (that statement is more accurate than you might think after you back out hedonic adjustments); that a lot […]
Read more...We are late to this excellent post by Barry Ritholtz (which also reminds us of the consistency of Business Week covers as a counterindicator; this example is from February 2007). And I’ve wanted to say something about rates creeping up, but I got beaten to the punch (although we have made the currency-realted observations, #5 […]
Read more...Mark Thoma quotes a Washington Post op-ed piece by Daniel Gross that gets worried about the current and prospective level of foreign ownership of US businesses: …In countries that are resource-rich or export powerhouses, governments and government-controlled entities have amassed huge pools of capital. A report issued last month by Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Jen […]
Read more...The government that told us that there were WMD in Iraq has also told us that payrolls increased by 157,000 in May. We’ve pointed out before that the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s monthly job report has a well established history of being unreliable and overstated. The Business Employment Dynamics report, which is far more detailed […]
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