A lot of people are still feeling very bruised by last Friday’s market actions (Felix Salmon went as far as ordering all retail investors to get out of the pool). A message from a reader with ample trading desk experience: BTW, hope you didn’t have any sell-stops yesterday, WTF was that?!?!? I covered my SPY […]
Read more...By Glenn Stehle, an engineer who began working in the oil industry in 1974. After a two-year stint with Cities Service Oil Company, he worked for two years for Henry Engineering, a petroleum engineering consulting firm. Upon leaving Henry Engineering he worked as an independent engineering consultant in all facets of the oil and gas […]
Read more...By Richard Smith, a London-based capital markets IT specialist Here’s someone with his head screwed on, back in April 2007, who proves singlehandedly that “hoocoodanode” was no defense for failing to anticipate the implosion of the shadow banking system (more on this prescient analyst in due course): For several years now, we have marvelled at […]
Read more...The defenders of the economic orthodoxy have gotten much more shrill of late. In a perverse way, this is probably a positive sign: they might be feeling a tad worried that they are starting to lose their hold over consensus reality. But given how quick various media outlets are to pick up and amplify their […]
Read more...By Buzz Potamkin, former studio executive and producer, in the biz for 40+ years, now a consultant Every investment in film is gambling. Schuyler Moore, April 22, 2010, testimony before the House Agriculture Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities Futures are a hedge against some event yet to come, representing the desire by a participant to […]
Read more...By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. The recent financial crisis has shown that the legal and regulatory steps that have been taken to provide information […]
Read more...But opacity, leverage, and moral hazard are not accidental byproducts of otherwise salutary innovations; they are the direct intent of the innovations. No one at the major capital markets firms was celebrated for creating markets to connect borrowers and savers transparently and with low risk. After all, efficient markets produce minimal profits. They were instead […]
Read more...Bubbles are important for the country because there is nothing more dangerous and damaging to an economy than a great asset bubble that breaks. And this is something the Fed never seems to get. … We looked back as far as we could, [of the 34 bubbles we found over the years], 32 have moved […]
Read more...By Andrew Dittmer, a mathematician with hedge fund experience, and Richard Smith, a UK based capital markets IT consultant Readers of this blog are by now familiar with the incredible story of how a single hedge fund (Magnetar) managed to play a shockingly extensive role in inflating the housing bubble in 2006-2007. The story was […]
Read more...By Gonzalo Lira, a novelist and filmmaker (and economist) currently living in Chile Traditionally, the way that the Wall Street-Hollywood relationship works is, Wall Street arrives in Hollywood with much pomp and circumstance, carrying boatloads of cash to invest in movies. Hollywood—delighted with this new money—steers Wall Street towards some “premiere” and “prestige” projects. Wall […]
Read more...By Marshall Auerback, a fund manager and investment strategist who writes for New Deal 2.0. Over the last thirty years, we have steadily moved from a bank lending credit system, to one in which capital markets have become the primary form of credit intermediation. Unfortunately, our regulatory apparatus has not kept up. The result has […]
Read more...Former Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince made what could be considered the most infamous statement of this credit crisis when he said: "as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing." –Citi Chief on Buyouts: ‘We’re Still Dancing’, DealBook, July 2007 This statement was correctly interpreted as a […]
Read more...By Tom Adams, an attorney and former monoline executive Felix Salmon at Reuters and Steve Gandel at Curious Capitalist used some of the analysis in Michael Lewis’s The Big Short as an opportunity to attempt to exonerate Goldman Sachs for the charge of deliberately constructing CDOs to go bad for their own profit. In particular, […]
Read more...Economists are often in the “it works in practice, but does it work in theory?” mode, but here we see a case where some are grappling with why some of their prized notions pre-crisis came a cropper. A clever post at VoxEU discusses why financial innovation isn’t what it is cracked up to be, and […]
Read more...A reader wrote to tell me his firm had been shown transactions at the end of 2007 from an investment bank (not Lehman) that he was confident were to tart up its balance sheet. This confirms the hardly shocking idea that window dressing was not limited to Lehman: Around Dec 2007 bank I work for […]
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