Category Archives: Dubious statistics

Gaius Publius: IPCC’s “Carbon Budget” Gives One-in-Three Chance of Failure

All of the talk in the lead-up to this year’s meeting in Paris of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be about how much “burnable carbon” we can still emit. In other words, what’s our remaining “carbon budget”? Or more to the point, how much more money can Exxon make and still be one of the good guys?

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Peak Optimism, or Peak Propaganda?

Yves here. Ilargi is mighty vexed by the unseemly display of optimism in the media over today’s jobs reports, since the continuing cheerleading is every more at odds with the outlook for most consumers and businesses. It’s easy to view this chipper barrage as a mainstay of the financial media, but as Ilargi implies, this looks like an effort to redefine collective expectations downward, so that ordinary citizens are conditioned to see the “new normal” of a tepid recovery as the best they can expect.

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Why Did GDP Fall So Dramatically Last Quarter?

Robert Pollin, professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, gives a good high-level discussion of why the GDP results for last quarter were such a train wreck. Remember that analysts and economists were blindsided; no one expected to see GDP fall at that rate. As we wrote, the tendency among pundits has been to treat the results as of not much concern, since that period is past and some of plunge can be attributed to one-off factors, most importantly, abnormally cold weather. Pollin explains why this explanation is insufficient.

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GDP Hits Air Pocket: Recession Warning or False Alarm?

In case you managed to miss it, the GDP revision yesterday morning was stunningly bad.

But after getting rattled, Mr. Market shrugged off the report. So what if we opened Schrodinger’s box and found out the cat was dead? That was first quarter’s cat. That cat might as well be dead for all we care now. Plus the weather was bad, so we’ll make all that up, and anyway, the Fed has our back, so if there really is something to worry about here, they’ll fix it, as least as far as security-owners are concerned. Right?

In addition to looking at the main elements of the GDP report, we’ve asked readers to report on what they see in their economy.

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Bill Black: The EU Center-Right and Ultra-Right’s Continuing War on the People of the EU

The New York Times has provided us with an invaluable column about the interactions of the EU’s rightist and ultra-rightest parties. It is invaluable because it is (unintentionally) so revealing about the EU’s right and ultra-right parties and the NYT’s inability to understand either the EU economic or political crises. The NYT article illustrates its points by presenting a tale entitled “A German Voice, Hans-Olaf Henkel, Calls for Euro’s Abolition.” It treats Henkel, an open racist and austerian, as a reputable figure, apparently because he is wealthy.

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The Federal Reserve Versus Hyman Minsky (and Deflation)

How the Fed has gotten itself caught in its own underwear by ignoring Hyman Minsky and in persisting in the clearly failed strategy of super lax monetary policy rather than calling for more government spending.

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The BLS Jobs Report Covering April 2014: A Tale of Two Contradictory Reports And Deeply Mixed Messages

By Hugh, who is a long-time commenter at Naked Capitalism. Originally published at Corrente. A complete archive of Hugh’s reports can be found here The Jobs Report in Brief This is a very schizophrenic jobs report. In the seasonally adjusted “official” data, the unemployment rate dropped an amazing four-tenths of a percent to 6.3% but […]

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