The bad numbers get bigger all the time. This eyepopping $534 billion figure for the amount of debt that Standard and Poor’s plans to either downgrade or put on negative watch was released a couple of hours ago after the exchanges were closed (sorry, I saw it but was unable to post till now). The markets already gave up their quick spell of cheer from the Fed’s 50 basis point cut due to further bad news on the bond insurer front. The continuing drumbeat of grim developments on the credit front is a reminder that the underlying problem is one of solvency, and in the vast majority of cases, lower interest rates will not turn bad debts into good ones.
S&P was also so kind as to estimate that these moves could increase bank losses, now at roughly $130 billion, to $265 billion. That may test the patience and/or confidence of our friendly junkies, um, sovereign wealth fund rescuers.
Needless to say, expect a rough ride in the markets tomorrow. The Fed is running out of firepower.
Standard & Poor’s said it cut or may reduce ratings on $534 billion of subprime-mortgage securities and collateralized debt obligations, the most sweeping action in response to rising since home-loan defaults.
The downgrades may extend bank losses to more than $265 billion and have a “ripple impact” on the broader financial markets, S&P said in a statement today. The securities represent $270.1 billion, or 47 percent, of subprime mortgage bonds rated between January 2006 and June 2007. The New York-based ratings company also said it may cut 572 CDOs valued at $263.9 billion.
The reductions may increase losses at European, Asian and U.S. regional banks, credit unions and government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks, S&P said. Many of those institutions haven’t written down their subprime holdings to reflect a drop in market values and these downgrades may force them to recognize losses, S&P said.
“It is difficult to predict the magnitude of any such effect, but we believe it will have implications for trading revenues, general business activity, and liquidity for the banks,” S&P said. The ratings company will start reviewing its rankings for some banks, especially those that “are thinly capitalized,” it said.
S&P downgraded $50.1 billion of subprime-mortgage securities, none rated higher than A+. More than 69 percent of the AAA rated subprime securities from 2006 and 46 percent from the first half of 2007 were placed on review.
“This one, I didn’t see coming,” said Mark Adelson a consultant at Adelson & Jacob Consulting LLC in New York, and a former asset-backed bond analyst at Nomura Securities.
Some of the largest global banks have already taken “significant” losses and they aren’t likely to have more writedowns, S&P said. CDOs repackage assets into new securities with varying degrees of risk, from AAA grade to unrated classes. Subprime loans are made to people with poor credit.
Under accounting rules, many smaller banks haven’t been required to write down their holdings until the credit ratings fell, enabling them to avoid the losses at bigger competitors including Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG. The world’s largest banks have reported losses exceeding $133 billion related to mortgages, CDOs and high-yield, high-risk loans, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“If you’re holding a AAA piece and it’s now downgraded to AA, you might have to write it down, even if you’re holding it for an investment,” Gary Gordon, a bank stock analyst at Portales Partners LLC in New York, said. “The longer it goes on and the higher the credit rating of the instrument downgraded, the wider the pain.”
1/2 a trillion and getting closer to reality and the impact on GDP of $13 Trillion; this is not just another week on wallstreet with a few Fed cuts, this is a meaningful, material and friggn very real and the derivative market should be shut down before more chaos expands out of total control! We need to put a stop to synthetic non-reality and put these lobby creeps in jail and restructure government from top to bottom layers and defend America from this stealth destruction!
Amazing but this story is not getting much press on the web or TV this evening. I only wish I shorted more financial and SRS before the close.
Anon of 11:01 AM,
Bizarrely, you may still have a chance. Asian markets are up. The fact that the story isn’t getting play means that investors still seem to be sitting pat (at least as of this hour).
Anybody get this?
TABLE-U.S. M-2 money supply down $16.9 bln Jan 14 week
Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:30pm EST
NEW YORK, Jan 24 (Reuters) – U.S. M-2 money supply fell by
$16.9 billion in the January 14 week to $7,440.8 billion, the
Federal Reserve said on Thursday.
Incredible! Now the Feds are aiding and abetting bank fraud and cover-up of bank losses.
Excerpts from Jan 30 Bloomberg article by Jonathan Weil.
“Just when it seemed as if the mortgage mess had hit a new low, now comes this: The Securities and Exchange Commission’s staff has granted the subprime-lending industry a huge exemption from the normal rules for off-balance- sheet accounting.
In effect, the move will let home lenders keep their balance sheets looking much smaller and less leveraged, even while the off-the-books loans they made get a makeover.”
This is a must read article, but please, lay down and take your blood pressure medication before reading the article. Your blood will boil.
Yves, that story is completely absent in wires around asia and hasn’t made it to the FT (last looked at an hour ago). What’s funnier is whilst the BOE is praised for the King reappointment , Darling is all for “covert” (as quoted from the FT) bank rescues, limited as they be, limited by what? investor interest?
It would be a bit late for the FT, although I’ve seen them put up stores between midnight and 2:00 AM their time upon occasion. The Journal has it but the headline is a tad innocuous: “S&P Ramps Up Mortgage Downgrades“