The 30 year Treasury bond has fallen from roughly 140 to its current level of 125-ish, so absent an intensification of deflation worries, one might surmise that at least some of the air has come out of the Treasury bond bubble. One might also take the view that the Chinese played this one astutely (or […]
Read more...Playing fast and loose seems to be the theme of the evening. First we have the credulity-stretching China fourth quarter GDP release, and now we have the eleventh hour stealing of the silver by Merrill’s top executives as one of the firm’s final acts. Let us remember the fact set: Merrill managed to get Bank […]
Read more...If you believe the China fourth quarter GDP release, I have a bridge I’d like to sell you. Some analysts see power consumption as a more accurate proxy of economic activity than GDP releases. Consider then the following report from Bloomberg on January 12: Power consumption fell 4 percent in October from a year earlier, […]
Read more...Edible technology relays medical data from inside the body The Standard It’s Not Just Consumers Who Are Making Adjustments Michael Panzner Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion Bloomberg Ben Stein: Please eat your hat Andrew Leonard Salon Gun Nuts Exposed at Distorting Data and Results EconoSpeak Mortgage-Securities Defaults Rise Wall Street Journal Why […]
Read more...Willem Buiter, who had a ringside seat at the Iceland meltdown, warned that the UK could follow back in November: With the pound sterling dropping like a stone against most other currencies and credit default swap rates on long-term UK sovereign debt beginning to edge up, this is a good time to revisit a suggestion […]
Read more...At some point in 2009, the government may get past managing the crisis du jour and turn to those nasty, seemingly intractable problems we nevertheless have to address. such as greenhouse gas emissions. One idea that had been bandied about is the idea of cap and trade, which would allow big bad carbon emitters to […]
Read more...Just do the math. From the Las Vegas Review-Journal (via Calculated Risk and reader Dwight): David Crowe of the National Association of Home Builders said he was quite negative in his housing and economic outlook last year, but not negative enough…. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 25.3 percent from March 2006 to October 2008. […]
Read more...Color me suspicious (as if that would be news to readers). Fiat and Chrysler have been talking about a deal that by all appearance might get the US automaker off government life support. That is probably a good idea, because if push were to come to shove, Chrysler would be the number one candidate to […]
Read more...When the Federal Reserve went “all in” as wags liked to put it on December 17, with its declaration that it would use “all available tools” to fight looming deflation. The bond and currency markets both took note, with the dollar falling sharply before rebounding and mortgage interest rates falling (nicely done, to get much […]
Read more...Further confirmation of deteriorating economic conditions in China come via its latest employment release. Note that China’s unemployment rate is its “urban” rate, which does not include migrant workers, so real unemployment is certain to be higher. In addition, the level officially projected for 2009 would put it at a 30 year high. That means […]
Read more...Ancient Persians ‘gassed Romans’ BBC No More Pardons? Hilzoy. I think it important to give departing President Bush the little credit he is due. He is to be commended for not engaging in a rash of last-minute pardons. Cheney Injures Back While Moving New York Times. A small bit of justice. Treasury Demands Banks With […]
Read more...The New York Times reports tonight on how banks are clamping down on credit to small homebuilders, with the result that many will go out of business. There were several things I found surprising about the piece: 1. That banks are getting stringent now. The housing market has been on a rapid decline since the […]
Read more...Perhaps I am unduly cynical, but I find it pretty odd that the general counsel at the New York Fed. Thomas Baxter, is making statements about the Lehman collapse now. For those who are familiar with US jurisprudence, anything said to an attorney in confidence is privileged information (yes, there have been some attacks on […]
Read more...Russia’s prime minister is not betting on a rebound in oil prices this year. From Moscow Times (hat tip reader Nivethan): Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered changes to this year’s federal budget to take into account the sharp drop in global oil prices, a decision that could pave the way for further spending […]
Read more...Growing stocks of unsold cars around the world Guardian (hat tip reader doc holiday). Government Regulators Aided IndyMac Cover-Up, Maybe Others ABC (hat tip reader CrocodileChuck) Investors turn their backs on mega-funds Financial Times. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch. Aggregate Supply-Driven Deflation and Its Implications for Macroeconomic Stability David Beckworth. Argues that deflation caused […]
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