David Crowe of the National Association of Home Builders said he was quite negative in his housing and economic outlook last year, but not negative enough….
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell 25.3 percent from March 2006 to October 2008.
Crowe said he expects prices to fall another 29 percent this year and new home sales to decline 14 percent.
The article does not make clear whether it interpolated Case Shiller, or whether Crowe was using that as his reference point (OFHEO’s Home Price Index shows a less dramatic decline).
But putting it together…… .747 (100% -25.3%) x .71 (10%- 29%) = .530. That means housing price will fall to 53% of their peak level, so the decline through this year will be 47%.
And we skipped over the last two months of 2008 in this estimate.