By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Here is latest iteration of my “Table 1” for the 2018 primaries. The structure is the same as the last iteration (‘Worksheet for the 2018 Midterms (How Big Does “The Wave” Have to Be?)’. As usual, the horserace information is the latest available from the Inside Elections tipsheet (last updated June 14). All the districts even remotely in play are listed. There are 82, and surely, if the Democrats are to win the 23 seats they need to win to take control of the House, those 23 are in that 82.
I have added two columns: “PVI” and “HRC +/-.” PVI (data from Cook Political Report), or “Partisan Voter Index,” is “a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party.” Concretely:
A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. If a district performed within half a point of the national average in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN.
(Here is Howie Klein using PVI to evaluate past DCCC chair Steve Israel’s performance.) HRC +/- is 2008 Democrat candidate Hillary Rodman Clinton’s margin of victory or defeat (data compiled by Daily Kos). For many districts, I have added the “winner” to status, and added challengers and bios who “withdrew” (needed to make sense of California, where some withdrawals were forced). A few were “disqualified,” so I added that category to the Hoser. I have also added the category “Safe-D,” for those horse races that the Cook Political Report removed from its ratings after they moved from “Likely-D.” I also added a new backer, Great Slate.
I have updated challenger data for many more districts, but sadly could not update them all. (NY-24, OH-01, OH-12, PA-10, TX-21, TX-32, VA-02, VA-05, VA-07, WA_05, and WV-03 remain to do.) I have not updated backer data. As always, if alert and kind readers with time on their hands find error, I’ll gratefully correct them. It’s a work in progress!
Herewith the table, which gives us important results, different and more nuanced than in the past.
Table 1: Worksheet on House Races, Election 2018 (06-26).
|District||Date||Party||Status||Incumbent||Horserace||Horserace (Previous)||PVI||HRC +/-||Challengers|
|AR-02||05‑22||R||—||Hill||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+17||-10.70||Gwen Combs (Women’s March; more.) [m, e, w], Jonathan Dunkley (more) [e][M], Paul Spencer (Rural broadbamd.) [e][M], Clarke Tucker (More.) [DCCC, DP][fM]|
|AZ-01||08‑28||D||—||O’Halleran||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+02||-1.10||Miguel Olivas [DP; ]|
|AZ-02||08‑28||R||Open||McSally||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+01||4.90||William Foster, Matt Heinz [DP; h], Ann Kirkpatrick (more, more; but see here; more.) [EL, DCCC, DP; ][fM], Billy Kovacs, Mary Matiella (more) [JD; m][M], Barbara Sherry (more), Bruce Wheeler (more) [DP; ][M], Yahya Yuksel [DP; ][M]|
|AZ-08||08‑28||R||Special||VACANT||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+13||-21.10||Judith McHale (McHale dropped out of the race prior to the filing deadline), Bob Musselwhite (More.) [DP; e], Bob Olsen [m, l], Hiral Tipirneni (More; more.) [IN; h][fM], Brianna Westbrook (More; more.) [JD, OR][M]|
|CA-04||06‑05||R||—||McClintock||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+10||-14.70||Regina Bateson. (More.) [o], Roza Calderon (More. Also DSA-endorsed.) [BN, JD, OR; s][M], Robert Lawton (More.) [M], Richard Martin (More), Jessica Morse (More; more.) [m][fM], Rochelle Wilcox (More.) [l]|
|CA-10||06‑05||R||—||Denham||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||EVEN||3.00||Mike Barkley [DP; m][M], Lisa Battista, Mateo Morelos Bedolla (More.) [DP][M], Michael Eggman, Josh Harder [e][M], Virginia Madueno [EL][fM], Dotty Nygard, Dotty Nygard [M], Seth Vaughn, Sue Zwahlen [DP]|
|CA-21||06‑05||R||—||Valadao||Likely-R||Likely-R||D+05||15.50||TJ Cox (More.) [DCCC], Emilio Huerta (More.)|
|CA-25||06‑05||R||—||Knight||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||EVEN||6.70||Bryan Caforio [JD, OR][M], Kelan Farrell-Smith (More.), Daniel Fleming, Diedra Greenaway (More.) [DP], Katie Hill [EL][fM], Michael Masterman-Smith (More.) [h], Scott McVarish (More.), Mary Pallant (more) [DP], Jess Phoenix [OR]|
|CA-39||06‑05||R||Open||Royce||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||EVEN||8.60||Jay Chen (More.) [m, in, s, e][M], Gil Cisneros (more; more) [DCCC; m], Sam Jammal (more) [DP; ][M], Phil Janowicz (More.) [e], Suzi Park Leggett [DP; ], Ted Rusk, Cybil Steed (more) [e], Andy Thorburn (more) [OR; e][M], Mai Khanh Tran (more, more) [EL; h]|
|CA-45||06‑05||R||—||Walters||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+03||5.40||Brian Forde, Brian Forde [DP; s], John Graham, Kia Hamadanchy [DP][M], Dave Min (CAP.) [DP], Katie Porter [EL][M], Greg Ramsay, Eric Rywalski, Ron Varasteh|
|CA-48||06‑05||R||—||Rohrabacher||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+04||1.70||Hans Keirstead [h][fM], Michael Kotick, Laura Oatman, Rachel Payne (Googler; more) [EL; s], Harley Rouda [IN, DCCC], Deanie Schaarsmith, Omar Siddiqui [in][fM], Tony Zarkades [m][M]|
|CA-49||06‑05||R||Open||Issa||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+01||7.50||Douglas Applegate [JD; m][M], Sara Jacobs (more) [EL, DP; ][M], Paul Kerr (more ) [m][M], Mike Levin (more) [DP; ][M]|
|CA-50||06‑05||R||—||Hunter||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+11||-15.00||Pierre Beauregard (More.) [DP], Josh Butner [m], Ammar Campa-Najjar. (More; more; more.) [IN, JD, OR, DP][M], Gloria Chadwick (More.) [h, w], Glenn Jensen (More), Patrick Malloy (More; more) [M], Alex Spilger (more)|
|CO-06||06‑26||R||—||Coffman||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||D+02||8.90||Jason Crow [DCCC, DP; m], Erik Stanger, Erik Stanger [M], Levi Tillemann [OR, DP][M]|
|FL-07||08‑28||D||—||Murphy||Lean-D||Lean-D||EVEN||7.30||Chardo Richardson [BN, JD; m][M]|
|FL-26||08‑28||R||—||Curbelo||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||D+06||16.30||Demetries Grimes [m], Ricky Junquera (more), Steven Machat [DP][M], Debbie Mucarsel-Powell [EL, DCCC], Steve Smith [m]|
|FL-27||08‑28||R||Open||Ros-Lehtinen||Lean-D||Lean-D||D+05||19.60||Mary Barzee Flores [EL; ], Kristen Rosen Gonzalez (more) [DP; e], Matt Haggman, Michael Hepburn (more) [BN, JD; e], Mark Anthony Person, David Richardson (more, more) [DP; ][M], Jose Javier Rodriguez (more) [DP; ], Ken Russell [DP; ], Donna Shalala (more; more) [EL, DP; ]|
|GA-06||05‑22||R||—||Handel||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+08||-1.50||Kevin Abel (Runoff, July 24. Abel.), Steven Knight Griffin [h][fM], Bobby Kaple (More; more. ), Lucy McBath (Runoff, July 24. More; more.) [EL]|
|GA-07||05‑22||R||—||Woodall||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+09||-6.30||Kathleen Allen (More) [h][M], Carolyn Bourdeaux (Run-off July 24. More; more.) [EL, DP; e], Melissa Davis (More.), David Kim (Run-off July 24. More. ) [e], Ethan Pham [fM], Steve Reilly|
|IA-01||06‑05||R||—||Blum||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||D+01||-3.50||Abby Finkenauer [EL, DCCC, DP], Thomas Heckroth [DP], George Ramsey [m, l], Courtney Rowe [JD; m][M]|
|IA-03||06‑05||R||—||Young||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+01||15.30||Cindy Axne (More.) [EL][fM], Pete D’Alessandro (More; more.) [JD, OR; s][M], Eddie Mauro|
|IL-06||03‑20||R||—||Roskam||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+02||7.00||Becky Anderson (Becky Anderson), Sean Casten (more) [DCCC][fM], Carole Cheney [DP], Grace Haaf (More), Amanda Howland [DP; e], Ryan Huffman [DP][M], Kelly Mazeski (“A Medicare-for-all public option.”) [fM], Geoffrey Petzel (More), Austin Songer, Becky Anderson Wilkins (more), Jennifer Zordani|
|IL-12||03‑20||R||—||Bost||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+05||-14.80||David Bequette [m], Brendan Kelly (more) [DCCC; m, in, l]|
|IL-13||03‑20||R||—||R. Davis||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+03||-5.50||Jonathan Ebel (More.) [m, in], David Gill (More; more.) [h][M], Erik Jones (More; more.) [DP; l][fM], Betsy Londrigan (More.) [EL, DCCC, DP; w][fM], Angel Sides (More) [M], Benjamin Webb (More.) [e], Mark Wicklund (More.)|
|IN-02||05‑08||R||—||Walorski||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+11||-23.20||Aaron Bush, Douglas Carpenter (More) [h][fM], Pat Hackett (More) [fM], Mel Hall (More.) [OR, DP; h], Yatish Joshi (More) [DP][fM], Roland Leech, John Petroff (More)|
|KS-02||08‑07||R||Open||Jenkins||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+10||-18.40||Paul Davis [DCCC, DP], Nathan Schmidt (more) [DP]|
|KS-03||08‑07||R||—||Yoder||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+04||1.30||Sharice Davids (More; more) [EL], Chris Haulmark (More), Reggie Marselus, Mike McCamon (“Create a single-payer Option”) [s], Tom Niermann [e], Andrea Ramsey (More.) [EL], Jay Sidie, Brent Welder [BN, JD, OR, DP][M], Sylvia Williams|
|KY-06||05‑22||R||—||Barr||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+09||-15.30||Jim Gray (more) [DP], Theodore Green, Daniel Kemph, Amy McGrath [DCCC, DP; m], Reggie Thomas [DP; e], Geoff Young (perennial candidate)|
|ME-02||06‑12||R||—||Poliquin||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+02||-17.60||Phil Cleaves (Dexter rural mail carrier), Jonathan Fulford (more; withdrawal.) [DP][fM], Jared Golden (more; ) [GS, DP; m][M], Craig Olson (More.) [DP][fM], Tim Rich (More.), Lucas St. Clair (More; more; more; more) [M]|
|MI-06||08‑27||R||—||Upton||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+04||-8.40||David Benac (More) [DP; e][M], Paul Clements (More) [e][M], Rich Eichholz [s][fM], George Franklin (More) [DP], Eponine Garrod (More; more.) [s], Aida Gray [m], Matt Longjohn (More) [h]|
|MI-07||08‑07||R||—||Walberg||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+07||-17.00||Gretchen Driskell (More.) [DCCC, DP], Steven Friday (More; more.) [m, s][M]|
|MI-08||08‑27||R||—||Bishop||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+04||-6.70||Elissa Slotkin (Money race; “the real deal”; Biden endorses.) [EL, DCCC, DP; m, in][fM], Chris Smith|
|MI-11||08‑27||R||Open||Trott||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+04||-4.40||Tim Greimel (Site not responsive.) [DP], Suneel Gupta, Dan Haberman [fM], Fayrouz Saad [JD, DP][M], Haley Stevens [DP]|
|MN-01||08‑14||D||Open||Walz||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+05||-14.90||Johnny Akzam [M], Dan Feehan (more, more, more) [DCCC, DP; m], Vicki Jensen [DP; ], Bob Ries (more) [m], Joe Sullivan, Rich Wright (more) [DP; m, l][M]|
|MN-02||08‑14||R||—||Lewis||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+02||-1.20||Angie Craig (more) [EL, DCCC; ], Jeff Erdmann (more) [e][M]|
|MN-03||08‑14||R||—||Paulsen||Lean-R||Lean-R||D+01||9.40||Brian Santa Maria [M], Adam Jennings (more) [m], Dean Phillips [DCCC]|
|MN-08||08‑14||D||Open||Nolan||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+04||-15.60||Kirsten Hagen Kennedy (more) [DP; ], Michelle Lee [M], Jason Metsa (more) [DP; ], Leah Phifer (more) [in][M], Joe Radinovich [DP; ]|
|MT-01||06‑05||R||—||Gianforte||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+11||-20.60||John Heenan (More; more; more.) [s][M], Grant Kier (More; more.) [DP], John Meyer, Lynda Moss (More.) [DP], Jared Pettinato (More; ) [DP; l], Kathleen Williams (More; more; more.) [DP], Tom Woods (More. ) [DP; e]|
|NC-09||05‑08||R||—||Pittenger||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+08||-11.60||Christian Cano (More; more.) [fM], Dan McCready (More; more.) [DCCC; m], Maria Warren (More.) [e]|
|NC-13||05‑08||R||—||Budd||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+06||-9.40||Adam Coker (More.) [DP], Kathy Manning (More; ; more; more.) [EL, DCCC], Beniah McMiller|
|NM-02||06‑05||R||Open||Pearce||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+06||-10.20||David Alcon (More.), David Baake (More.), Ronald Fitzherbert, Madeleine Hildebrandt [GS; m, e], Tony Martinez (More; more.) [m], Angel Pena (More; more.), Xochitl Torres Small (More; more; more.) [EL, DCCC, DP], Adolf Zubia (More.)|
|NE-02||05‑15||R||—||Bacon||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+04||-2.20||Brad Ashford [DCCC, DP], Kara Eastman (On her conversion to #MedicareForAll; more.) [JD; e][M]|
|NH-01||09‑11||D||Open||Shea-Porter||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+02||-1.60||Mark S. Mackenzie (more, more) [DP; ], Deaglan McEachern (more) [DP; ], Mindi Messmer (more) [BN; s][M], Terence O’Rourke [m, l][M], Chris Pappas (more) [DP; ], Levi Sanders (more; more) [M], Lincoln Soldati [l], Maura Sullivan (more) [EL, DP; m]|
|NJ-02||06‑05||R||Open||LoBiondo||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+01||-4.60||Will Cunningham (more) [DP; ], Sean Thom (more) [e][M], Jeff Van Drew (more) [DCCC, DP; ], Tanzie Youngblood (more) [e]|
|NJ-03||06‑05||R||—||MacArthur||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+02||-6.20||Rich Dennison (More.) [DP], Katherine Hartman (More.), Andrew Kim (More; more.) [DCCC; m, in], Frederick John Lavergne (More) [DP]|
|NJ-05||06‑05||D||—||Gottheimer||Safe-D||Lean-D||R+03||-1.10||[No challenger] (Now safe D.)|
|NJ-07||06‑05||R||—||Lance||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+03||1.10||Peter Jacob (On the Justice Democrats; Congressional candidate plans ‘Medicare-for-all’ town hall in Bedminster) [BN, JD, OR][M], Goutam Jois, Tom Malinowski [DCCC, DP]|
|NJ-11||06‑05||R||Open||Frelinghuysen||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+03||-1.00||Mitchell Cobert [l], Jack Gebbia (more) [m], Tamara Harris (more), Alison Heslin, Mikie Sherrill (more) [EL, DCCC; m, l][M], Mark Washburne [e][M]|
|NV-03||06‑12||D||Open||Rosen||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+02||-1.00||Richard Hart, Susie Lee (more; more)) [EL, DCCC; e], Jack Love [M], Guy Pinjuv (more) [s], Steve Schiffman, Eric Stoltz, Michael Weiss (more) [M]|
|NV-04||06‑12||D||Open||Kihuen||Likely-D||Likely-D||D+03||4.90||John Anzalone (more) [e], Steven Horsford (more) [DCCC, DP; ], Patricia Spearman (more) [DP; m][M], Allison Stephens (more) [DP; e], Amy Vilela (more) [BN, IN, JD; ][M], Sid Zeller [m, in]|
|NY-11||06‑26||R||—||Donovan||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+03||-9.80||Michael DeVito, Jr. (More.) [m, e][M], Zach Emig (Bond trader; more.) [M], Radhakrishna Mohan (More), Max Rose (More; more; more.) [DCCC; m, l][fM], Paul Sperling (More), Omar Vaid (More) [fM]|
|NY-19||06‑26||R||—||Faso||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+02||-6.80||Jeff Beals [JD; in, e][M], David Clegg [M], Erin Collier (more) [EL, DP], Antonio Delgado [fM], Brian Flynn [M], Gareth Rhodes [DP], Pat Ryan [m, in]|
|NY-22||06‑26||R||—||Tenney||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+06||-15.50||Anthony Brindisi [DCCC, DP][fM]|
|NY-24||06‑26||R||—||Katko||Likely-R||Likely-R||D+03||3.60||Dana Balter [IN], Juanita Perez Williams [DCCC]|
|OH-01||05‑08||R||—||Chabot||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+05||-6.60||Robert Barr, Aftab Pureval [DCCC], Laura Ann Weaver|
|OH-12||05‑08||R||Special||VACANT||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+07||-11.30||Ed Albertson, Danny O’Connor, Jackie Patton, John Peters, John Russell, Zach Scott, Doug Wilson|
|OH-14||05‑08||R||—||Joyce||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+05||-11.50||Betsy Rader [EL]|
|PA-01||05‑15||R||—||Fitzpatrick||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||D+31||61.30||Steve Bacher [DP; e][M], Rachel Reddick [EL; m], Scott Wallace (more) [DP]|
|PA-05||05‑15||R||Open||Meehan||Likely-D||Likely-D||R+13||-28.80||Larry Arata [e], George Badey (more) [DP; ], Shelly Chauncey (more) [in][fM], Margo Davidson [DP; ], Thaddeus Kirkland [DP; ], Richard Lazer (more) [DP; ][M], Lindy Li (more), Ashley Lunkenheimer (more) [l], Dan Muroff (more; more) [DP; ], Mary Gay Scanlon, Molly Sheehan (more) [s][M], Greg Vitali (more) [DP; ], David Wertime, Theresa Wright|
|PA-06||05‑15||R||—||Costello||Likely-D||Likely-D||R+02||0.60||Chrissy Houlahan (more; more) [EL, DCCC; m]|
|PA-07||05‑15||R||Open||Dent||Tilt-D||Tilt-D||R+01||2.30||David Clark, Rick Daugherty [DP; ], Greg Edwards [JD; ][M], John Morganelli [DP; l], Roger Ruggles (more) [e], Susan Wild (more; more) [EL; l]|
|PA-10||05‑15||R||—||Perry||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+16||-35.90||Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson, Eric Ding, Alan Howe, George Scott|
|PA-17||05‑15||R||—||Rothfus||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+01||-10.10||Conor Lamb [m, l], Ray Linsenmayer (Dropped out (oddly). More; more; more.)|
|TX-07||03‑06||R||—||Culberson||Tilt-R||Tilt-R||R+07||1.40||Joshua Butler [h, e], James Cargas [DP; ], Lizzie Pannill Fletcher [EL, DCCC], Laura Moser (more) [JD, DP], Ivan Sanchez [DP][fM], Alex Triantaphyllis, Jason Westin (background; reflections on his loss) [h]|
|TX-21||03‑06||R||Open||Smith||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+10||-10.00||Derrick Crowe, Joseph Kopser, Elliott McFadden, Mary Wilson|
|TX-23||03‑06||R||—||Hurd||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||R+01||3.40||Gina Ortiz Jones [EL, DCCC, DP; m, l][M], Rick Trevino [JD, OR, DP; ][M]|
|TX-32||03‑06||R||—||Sessions||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+05||1.90||Colin Allred (more) [DCCC, DP; ][fM], Ron Marshall, Todd Maternowski, Ed Meier, George Rodriguez, Lillian Salerno, Brett Shipp|
|UT-04||06‑26||R||—||Love||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+13||-6.70||Sheldon Kirkham (more), Ben McAdams [DCCC, DP], Darlene McDonald [JD; s][M], Morgan Shepherd, Tom Taylor [s][M]|
|VA-02||06‑12||R||—||Taylor||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+03||-3.40||Elaine Luria [EL, DCCC], Karen Mallard|
|VA-05||06‑12||R||—||Garrett||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+06||-11.10||Leslie Cockburn [EL], Roger Dean Huffstetler, Andrew Sneathern|
|VA-07||06‑12||R||—||Brat||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+06||-6.50||Abigail Spanberger [EL], Dan Ward|
|VA-10||06‑12||R||—||Comstock||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||D+01||10.00||Shadi Ayyas [DP; h], Julia Biggins (more) [s], Alison Kiehl Friedman (more) [DP; in], Daniel Helmer (more) [m][fM], Julien Modica, Paul Pelletier (more) [l], Michael Pomerleano (more), Lindsey Davis Stover (more) [DP; ], Jennifer Wexton (more) [DP; l]|
|WA-05||08‑07||R||—||McMorris Rodgers||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+08||-20.10||Lisa Brown [EL, DCCC], Matt Sutherland|
|WA-08||08‑07||R||Open||Reichert||Toss-Up||Toss-Up||EVEN||3.00||Poga Ahn, Thomas Cramer [M], Shannon Hader (more) [h], Robert Hunziker (more) [M], Brian Kostenko [M], Jason Rittereiser (more; more.) [IN; l][M], Kim Schrier (more) [EL, IN; h]|
|WI-01||08‑14||R||Open||Ryan||Lean-R||Lean-R||R+19||-10.30||Randy Bryce (more) [JD, DCCC][fM], Cathy Myers (more) [e][M]|
|WV-03||05‑08||R||Open||Jenkins||Likely-R||Likely-R||R+23||-49.20||Paul Davis [DCCC], Janice Hagerman, Shirley Love, Richard Ojeda|
- Bio keys are m, i, l, and o) for Military, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Other (except I didn’t find any Others this time). A candidate who worked for the CIA is keyed i. A candidate who worked in Law enforcement and the military is keyed “lm.” “Law Enforcement” is conceived broadly, including not only police but district attorneys.
- Backer keys are BN, EL, GS, IN, JD, OR, and DCCC, Brand New Congress, Emily’s List, Great Slate, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, and (of course) the DCCC. In addition, there is a DP key, for members of the Democrat Party network, elected and otherwise, and S, for challengers inspired by Sanders.
- Policy keys are M, fM, for Medicare for All, and any of the various bait-and-switch alternatives proposed by think tanks like CAP, or centrists like Merkeley. Some judgement is involved, based on the verbiage. “Single payer” always merits an “M,” for example.
First, let’s look at those safe Democrat districts. Here they are:
Figure 1: Newly Safe Democrat Districts
These are, as it were, pieces off the board. This is consistent with a slow erosion of Republican strength, as from “Likely-R” to “Tilt-R,” as seen in the previous two worksheets.
Now let’s look at something much more interesting, and take our new PVI and HRC columns out for a spin. The first query returns districts — not all, remember, but the “battleground districts” we are tracking — where Clinton’s margin was between zero and ten:
Figure 2: Republican Districts Likely to be Targeted (by HRC)
You will immediately recall that the Democrats need to flip 23 seats, and when you look at the figure, you will see that of the 22 districts listed, 19 are Republican. It makes sense, pragmatically, for Democrats to try to flip Republicans seats that Clinton won, as we have been told. For example:
Democrats will surely look first to flip the 25 districts where Mrs. Clinton outperformed Mr. Trump.
I continue to insist that these Democrats will have a lot of trouble getting this done, because the dominant factions in the party are so awful in every way (Shattered; Chasing Hillary; Listen, Liberal!). The Republicans won’t be passive, either. But you can see why the professionals are less skeptical of Democrat victory than I am. (For me, the outcome of the election is either gridlock — assuming that Pelosi sticks to her promise not to impeach Trump, which would tear the country apart — or Götterdämmerung for today’s liberal Democrat establishment. So I’m sitting in the catbird seat: All the outcomes are good!)
Now let’s sort the same query by district.
Figure 3: Republican Districts Likely to be Targeted (by District)
Figure 4: Republican Districts Likely to be Targeted (Mapped)
Time presses, and I haven’t added a demographic column to Table I (and at some point I’m going to run out of horizontal space). So I will speculate, though I think with reason (see below), that the Latinx composition of the urban districts mapped is high, and that the prospect of Latinx votes in these key, flippable districts accounts for the Democrat Party’s drastic and sudden shift from “Russia! Russia! Russia!” to what Nicholas Nassim Taleb labels pedophrasty. (That’s not to say that immigration policy is not a serious issue — it is — but to say that the liberal Democrats approach to it shows little evidence of good faith.)
Now let’s add an additional overlay to the map in Figure 4: California ports.
Figure 5: Republican Districts Likely to be Targeted (Supply Chain)
A new picture emerges, doesn’t it? Here are some statistics for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach complex:
The port’s container volume was 9.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in calendar year 2017, a 5.5% increase over 2016’s record-breaking year of 8.8 million TEU. It’s the most cargo moved annually by a Western Hemisphere port. The port is the busiest port in the United States by container volume, the 19th-busiest container port in the world, and the 10th-busiest worldwide when combined with the neighboring Port of Long Beach. The port is also .
In terms of market share, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach combined are twice as large as the next ranked port, New York. (In other words, these ports are the most important choke point for the entire supply chain of the United States, incoming and outgoing.)
Now let’s ask ourselves a question that Democrats do not ask, at least in public: What is the nature of the working class that makes these ports run? By a happy coincidence, I have been working through Kim Moody’s excellent On New Terrain (recommended at NC by Steven Parfitt here), and Moody provides the answer to this question. From Chapter 5, “Logistics: Capital’s Supply Chain Gang,” pages 59 et seq.:
Even as capital in the United States was consolidating in industry after industry, the ties that bind the production of goods and services together, whether locally or across space, were tightening in new and important ways…. One of the most important changes in the reorganization of supply chains is their geography, the concentration of workers in key “nodes” or “clusters” [see Figure 5] along with their technological drivers and linkages…
Because the turnover times of sunk capital that characterize logistics clusters and their internal infrastructure are long, and profits sloe in coming, there is enormous pressure on both owners and users of this infrastructure to seek out relatively compared to that employed in the movable aspects of logistics: trucks, trains, planes, ships, and the like.
All the metropolitan sites of major logistic clusters are also homes to large “ghettos” and “barrios” housing large numbers of unemployed and underemployed working-class people…. They are the quintessential reserve army of labor….
So you can see what the Democrat Party is doing here. As we show in Figure 5, three of the districts in California that Democrats must flip — must flip, if one takes their protestations in good faith, to remove a psychotic President from office, and prevent Fascism — are centered on the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; they are logistics clusters, hence have (at least for the Latinx portions of the reserve army of labor) exactly the same demographics that Democrats are — as seems obvious to me — trying to manipulate with their “Babies! Babies! Babies!” moral panic. Yet will they attempt, as a party, to address the, er, “economic anxiety” of this portion of the working class? Will they support a $15-dollar-an-hour wage? (That would buy some babies better formula!) How about card checkMR SUBLIMINAL lol no so that these “ghetto and barrio” workers can form unions? (That might get some babies health insurance through collective bargaining!) Call me crazy, but how about #MedicareForAll? (That should help some babies grow up with two healthy parents!) Will they even combine their serial moral panics with an economics appeal? Of course not.
On the one hand, liberal Democrats would kill Baby Hitler in his or her cradle; on the other, they’d rather die as a party — as they may well do — than make a class-based appeal in districts that cry out for it! Every logistics cluster is a ginormous [family blogging] cage with hundreds of thousands of inmates, including babies, and liberal Democrats seem firmly determined to keep the working class confined behind the chain link fences and bars. Well played, all.
 That is, before the migrant moral panic began, and so not including its effects, if any. My guess, and we’ll see in two weeks whether I’m right, is that the effect will be “not very much,” assuming that the memory of Obama’s own deportations, for-profit detention centers, and family separations remains vivid in the minds of those targeted, and that liberal Democrat apparatchik
virtue signaling posturing, preening, and historical erasure fail to gain traction except among those already sold. In a close election, of course, “not very much” could translate to “just enough.”
 Remember that the purpose of this series is not following the horse race — although who can look away from it? — but to come to an understanding of the Democrat party as an institution. Frankly, I don’t feel that I’m very far along. The closest I have come, so far, is that the Democrats are a gang that control the ballot line instead of a street corner, but that analogy does not provide an account of entities like Brock’s million-dollar trolls, tame “journalists,” or Democrat-aligned factions in the intelligence community. It also doesn’t provide an account of changes in the Democrat base, as described by Thomas Frank.
 Speaking against this account would be that the current episode concerns Central American migrants, and I neither know the exact Latinx composition of these districts nor wish to assume that all Latinx voters have identical values and interests.
 Here I pause to pat myself on the back for making shipping and supply chain issues central-to-mission for Water Cooler.
 Bernie should hold a town hall or two in some logistics centers.