2:00PM Water Cooler 1/3/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Patient readers, I think I’m going to have to do the Water Cooler improvements incrementally, instead of in one fell swoop. Today, I think I improved the section on contacting me (because I know there’s mail from you I just miss in the avalanche of mail that I get). –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Laughing Dove, Unnamed Road, Pappankulam, Tamil Nadu, IN (8.454, 77.716), Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, India. I wonder if the name of the road is in fact “Unnamed.”

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

Lawyering:

“Section Three’s Chilling Effect on Free Speech” [Justin Burnworth, SSRN]. From the Abtract: “This article sets forth the potential clashes between free speech principles and Section Three. It argues that the principles cannot simply “give away” for every Section Three claim of disqualification. First, the proper way to understand the First Amendment and Section Three is that the former limits the scope of latter. The passage of Section Three did not strip away the free speech principles enshrined in the First Amendment. Second, individual rights guaranteed in the Constitution must take a preferred position to governmental powers when the two clash. If an individual right can be indirectly usurped by a later governmental power, it renders the entire process of protecting rights superfluous…. [A] Section Three claim that an elected official ‘engaged’ in insurrection—through their speech—must first adhere to the Brandenburg standard to determine whether the inflammatory speech was likely to incite imminent lawless action and is therefore not protected under the First Amendment….” And from the text: “While the [two Colorado] cases had different outcomes, they shared one glaring similarity—an incorrect application of Brandenburg v. Ohio. Neither court directly adopted the Baude and Paulsen argument that Section Three should supersede the First Amendment. However, indirectly they subverted the free speech principles protected in Brandenburg by focusing on Trump’s history with extremists and political violence to determine the context of his speech. By utilizing this backward-looking approach, the courts extended and changed the rule in Brandenburg because the Supreme Court has never made such an inquiry in any incitement case.” • Incitement being, forward-looking.

“I Oppose Trump—and Any Efforts to Ban Him From the Ballot” [Bill Barr, The Free Press]. “Obviously, there has to be a fair fact-finding procedure before someone can be branded an insurrectionist. But what should that process be? The Fourteenth Amendment is silent on this. The terms “insurrection” and “engaging” are mushy. When does a public disturbance become an insurrection and when does an individual’s level of involvement amount to “engagement”? What is the standard of proof required? Is it evidence beyond a reasonable doubt, which is what would be required to convict someone for the crime of insurrection, or mere preponderance of the evidence? Does the accused have the right to cross-examine witnesses and to compel witnesses to testify? Does the accused have the right to a jury? Or can a single judge or election official make the final ruling? The key issue is who gets to set these procedural and definitional rules [“ascertainment“]. Is each state free to make up its own rules? Or is it Congress’s job to set up a uniform enforcement mechanism? …. In fact, Congress did decide. It did so the year after Justice Chase’s decision when Congress enacted the Enforcement Act of 1870. That law contained two provisions for the expressed purpose of enforcing Section Three. One provision set up a mechanism by which federal attorneys could bring a civil action to remove from office a person alleged to be disqualified for engaging in insurrection or rebellion. (This provision was repealed in 1948.) The second provision authorized criminal prosecution of someone for knowingly accepting or holding office in violation of Section Three. This provision has evolved [how] into Section 2383 in the current criminal code, which makes it a crime to engage in rebellion or insurrection against the United States and disqualifies anyone who does from holding federal office. ” • Here is Section 2383. (I’ve been muttering about it for some time. Why, one might ask, was Trump not charged under 2383? It’s not like Trump is best buds with Merrick Garland. The most parsimonious explanation is that Trump was not charged with insurrection under Section 2383 because no prosector thought they could win the case. Hence, Democrats started jurisdiction-shopping, got a friendly court to treat hearings as factual evidence, lowered the standards of evidence from “beyond a reasonably doubt,” and make the definition of insurrection ever more capacious. I know I’m strange bedfellows with Bill Barr, but that’s where we are. And if Barr is right, I am wrong in this post to say that Congress never implemented Section Three. In my own defense, no authority I consulted said they did either, so fifty lashes with a wet noodle for lambert.) And here is the Enforcement Act of 1870. Barr refers to Sections Fourteen (“it shall be the duty of the district attorney of the United States for the district in which person shall hold office, as aforesaid, to proceed against such person, by writ of quo warranto”) and Fifteen (“deemed guilty of a misdemeanor”).

UPDATE Baude and Paulsen do in fact mention The Enforcement Act of 1870 on page 102:

Shortly after this—and shortly after Chief Justice Chase’s unsound and unfortunate decision in Griffin’s Case had held that Section Three required congressional legislation in order to be put into operation – Congress enacted federal procedures to directly enforce Section Three in federal court. The 1870 Enforcement Act, also known as the First Ku Klux Klan Act, authorized district attorneys of the United States to bring quo warranto actions to remove officials holding office “contrary to the provisions of the third section of the fourteenth article of amendment of the Constitution” and to bring criminal prosecutions against person who “shall hereafter knowingly accept or hold” office in violation of Section Three.

So, if I have this right, Baude and Paulsen are simultaneously arguing that Section Three is self-executing (hence Section Five is a hood ornament, and Chase, in Griffin, was wrong) and that Section Three was implemented by Congress (as Section Five empowers Congress to do, making it not a hood ornament, and Chase might was well have been right). But if Section Three is was in fact self-executing, why the need for the Enforcement Act of 1870? And why wasn’t Debs prosecuted under it in 1920? Isn’t it both more parsimonious and more respectful of precedent to argue that Chase decided Griffin correctly, that Section Five was functional, and not merely decorative, and that the Enforcement Act of 1870 was the called-for Congressional implementation?

“Trump sues over Maine ballot disqualification” [Courthouse News]. “The former president claims he met all of the requirements necessary to appear on Maine’s primary ballot, per the state’s presidential primary candidate consent form, which was attached to his filing. The form lists three ‘qualifications’ for U.S. president: that they be a natural born citizen, that they be at least 35 years old and that they have been residing in the U.S. for at least 14 years. Those are the only three requirements stated, Trump argues. He claims that since not one qualification ‘identifies, involves, or refers to Section Three of the 14th Amendment,’ Bellows cannot legally remove him from the ballot. Doing so, Trump adds, was above Bellows’ authority anyway. He claims that the 14th Amendment has ‘no role for state officials to play in its enforcement.’ ‘The secretary had no statutory authority to consider any challenge to President Trump’s qualifications,’ Trump says in his petition.” • This might offer the Supreme Court a back door for a national standard?

* * *

Punditry:

“The Trumpian Lost Cause could win the Presidency again and come back into power unless we use the terror of our laws to prevent it”:

“Terror of our laws”: 14th Amendment expert Professor @davidwblight1 on the purpose of the post-Civil War amendment that has been used to bar Trump from a second state’s primary ballot.#LastWord pic.twitter.com/3aB6ZaxwQG

— The Last Word (@TheLastWord) December 29, 2023

Yale’s Professor Blight taught “The Civil War and Reconstruction Era, 1845-1877” at Yale (here as a podcast, well worth a listen.) I understand what Blight is saying. I think he’s blind to the centripetal, anti-Union pull on the Democrat side, unfortunately.

“‘A Sad Day’: How the Colorado Disqualification Case is Bringing Back Bad Memories for the Supreme Court” [Jonathan Turley]. “Now, the Supreme Court is being pulled into another election vortex [like Bush v. Gore] by the Colorado decision and, potentially, by some of the cases in at least 15 other states. (Appeals of ballot decisions are pending in Arizona; ballot challenges are in process in Alaska, Maine, New York, New Jersey, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming. A Wisconsin challenge has been denied twice.)… The Court is not an institution eager for this role. The ruling in Bush v. Gore produced one of the greatest institutional crises in the Court’s history, and the impact reverberated for decades. …. [T]he case raises the same institutional challenges as Bush v. Gore. Back in 2000, the Court fractured and left a bitter legacy for both the justices and the public. Faced with another controversial 4-3 decision by a state supreme court during a presidential election, Roberts will need to seek more than just a final decision. He will likely push hard for a unanimous decision, to have the Court speak in one voice to avoid the bitter fracturing of 2000.” • Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Barrett all did legal work for the Republican side in Florida 2000, after which the Court selected Bush as Presdient in Bush v. Gore, where Thomas was in the majority (the only justice remaining from that time).

“Should Trump be banned from ballot in North Carolina? State courts could soon decide” [WRAL]. “Friday’s appeal argues that it’s unfair to GOP voters in North Carolina to allow Trump to take part in the primary. Specifically, it says, Trump supporters will have been deprived of their right to back a different candidate who’s actually eligible to serve as president. ‘The voters in the Republican primary on March 5, 2024, have a right to choose from constitutionally eligible candidates,’ the legal filing says. ‘If one were to vote for Donald Trump, and he is not eligible to hold the office of president, their vote will not count. Their vote will be a wasted vote, will not play a part in the selection of the next president, and such a result in constitutionally unacceptable.’… [The appea was] filed by Brian Martin, a Stokes County retiree who previously served as a top lawyer in the administrations of Republican presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush…. Martin told WRAL in an interview following the Board of Elections decision earlier this month that he believed it’s nonsensical for the state’s top elections officials to claim it they have no power to stop a political party from nominating anyone for president, regardless of whether they’re legally qualified. ‘I thought it was remarkable that they determined the Republican Party can list any candidate for president of the United States, and the board has no authority to determine if they’re qualified for office,’ he said at the time. ‘So essentially a party could nominate a 21-year-old, or a foreign national, and there’s nothing they can do?'” •

“It’s Time to Start Taking the 14th Amendment Very Seriously” [Charles Piece, Esquire]. Quoting Timothy Snyder: “[W]e have to recall how constitutional regimes have been defeated in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. How does the rule of law become something else? First comes the acceptance that one person is not subject to the rule of law, for whatever bad reason — that he was in office; that he has violent supporters; that he is charismatic; that we are cowards. Once that move is made, once that hole is opened, the person so sanctified as a Leader has been empowered to change the regime itself, and will predictably try to do so.” • A lot of projection going on here, it seems to me. As far as “changing the regime,” this is an interesting example I should look into–

“After Section 3 Comes Section 2” [The American Prospect]. “About a year ago, I reported in the Prospect on a pending lawsuit filed on behalf of a citizens group by former Department of Justice lawyer Jared Pettinato. The suit asks that the Census Bureau be required to enforce Section 2 of the 14th Amendment, enacted in 1868 to strip congressional representation from states that disfranchise voters. The text applies to general methods states adopt that keep people from voting and is not limited to racial discrimination. The proportional loss of congressional representation would also reduce the votes that states would get in the Electoral College.” Well, that’s interesting. More: “It’s amazing that, given the central role courts construing constitutional texts play in our public life, the terms of operationalizing the 135 words of Section 2 have never been settled in over 150 years.” • It’s not amazing at all. Section Three wasn’t operationalized either. Oddly, the Prospect doesn’t cite the case. Readers?

2024

Less than a year to go!

* * *

“Republican 2024 Field Down to Just Trump, Haley, and DeSantis” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “Barring some totally unprecedented development, Trump is going to win the Iowa caucuses on January 15 (his lead in the RCP averages there is currently 32.7 percent). The big question is whether DeSantis can keep his campaign temporarily alive by finishing second after focusing all his resources on Iowa or if he will instead give way to Haley, who has a remote but distinct path to viability in New Hampshire and then in her home state of South Carolina. That makes the head-to-head debate between these two survivors on January 10 at Drake University in Des Moines a genuinely interesting and significant encounter. It will offer DeSantis one final chance to deploy his more-conservative-than-anyone message in hopes of peeling off Trump loyalists while depicting Haley as too RINO-ish for a GOP defined by the MAGA movement, even as Haley seeks to consolidate anti-Trump voters and advertise her allegedly superior electability to Republicans starved for power. Trump, of course, will skip the debate and, in fact, hold a town-hall event in Des Moines sponsored by Fox News on the same evening.” • Say what you will about Trump, he has stature. Neither Haley nor DeSantis do.

“Trump, who lives for drama, has created the dullest of nomination fights” [Politico]. Thank heavens something is dull. “Trump, who has skipped four GOP debates and largely forgone barnstorming early nominating states, hasn’t taken the primary lightly. His team has worked for endorsements, leaned on state parties and put in place a more sophisticated delegate operation…. ‘He’s run a much more disciplined and focused campaign than the other two times, and though it’s a low bar, quite honestly, who the hell cares?’ said Dave Carney, the veteran New Hampshire-based GOP strategist. ‘He has a great organization that’s finally getting noticed. Sometimes, it’s not playing prevent defense, but being smart with your candidates’ resources. I don’t think anybody on New Year’s weekend in Iowa cared much about anything other than Michigan losing [in the College Football Playoffs]. He doesn’t need to do that. He’s not behind.'” • If Trump’s legal team were half as good as his political team, he wouldn’t be in trouble at all. OTOH, maybe he wants to head for the Supreme Court (that being his team, or at least the team he put together). I dunno. Anyhow, it’s this sort of article that ought to put to rest the notion that Trump is a madman or a fool. But that never happens. I suppose “disciplined and focused” campaigners don’t appear in people’s dreams…

* * *

“Who would lend millions to Hunter Biden? Meet the Hollywood lawyer who has” [Los Angeles Times]. Hey, who wouldn’t? Kevin Morris did. A couple of odd details. Morris was in the SUV that took Hunter to the Capitol steps when he recently defied that House subpoena for his testimony. At the same event: “Nestled among the news reporters was another camera crew. But it had a different mission. For years, it had been following Biden and filming his travails for a documentary that Morris has backed. The strategy isn’t a novel one. A documentary would allow Biden the person — a father, husband and spouse — to be presented without a middleman: painting, selling his art, raising his son and navigating everyday life as a sober adult with ongoing criminal investigations and in the crosshairs of Trump and his supporters. With a documentary, Biden, and to some extent Morris, could possibly get the last word.” • Makes you wonder if the House committee would like to talk to Morris. And get a look at his film.

* * *

“RFK Jr. Qualifies for His First Ballot in Utah” [The Messenger]. “Presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot in Utah, election officials said, marking the first state ballot he will appear. The longshot independent presidential candidate collected over 1,000 signatures in the state to appear on the ballot. The update comes after Republican Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson agreed to extend the state’s signature deadline from Jan. 8 to March 5. Kennedy’s campaign had previously sued the state, arguing that its deadline was unconstitutionally restrictive.” • Can’t find any word on Cornel West, who also hopes to appear on the Utah ballot.

“Robert F. Kennedy Fundraiser to Be Headlined by Italian Opera Singer Andrea Bocelli, Mike Tyson” [The Messenger]. Great headline. “[RFK Jr. SuperPAC] American Values confirmed the Bocelli performance, first reported by the Daily Mail. Other celebrity names like Martin Sheen, Mike Tyson, and Dionne Warwick will also be in attendance at the Jan. 22 event, which doubles as a 70th birthday celebration for Kennedy Jr.”

* * *

IL: “Deep-pocketed, self-funding candidates and dark money mar Illinois politics” [Chicago Sun-Times]. “Pritzker’s $24 million contribution to the Democratic Governors’ Association led to a hefty ad buy that painted Republican primary candidate Darren Bailey as “too conservative for Illinois” — a crafty strategy aimed at actually fortifying Bailey’s standing among conservative Republicans. It ultimately boosted Bailey’s candidacy over former Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, a moderate whose candidacy was backed by millions from billionaire Ken Griffin. The strategy worked. The more “extreme” a candidate is, the easier to defeat, Pritzker’s camp correctly predicted. But with the millions spent to boost Bailey, the Democratic governor — who has staunchly spoken out about the dangers former President Donald Trump posed to democracy — elevated a MAGA candidate who has repeatedly pushed a narrative that election fraud is rampant. The tactic was used successfully by Democrats in eight of 15 Republican primaries last year, according to a Washington Post analysis. And it’s certainly not new.” • Eight of 15. So, the “Pied Piper” strategy, much beloved by Democrats — especially after they elected Trump using it — works a little bit better than a coin toss?

IL: “Penny Pritzker, senior fellow of Harvard Corporation, faces scrutiny after Claudine Gay’s resignation as president” [Boston Globe]. The deck: “Harvard alum led the committee that selected Claudine Gay as the university’s president.” More: “Penny Pritzker, 64, is a former US commerce secretary and philanthropist from Chicago and an heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune. Her brother, J.B. Pritzker, is the governor of Illinois. Pritzker graduated from Harvard in 1981 with a bachelor of arts degree in economics and has worked in real estate, hospitality, and financial services. She was an early and prominent financial backer of Barack Obama’s candidacy for president and later served as US commerce secretary in his administration from 2013 to 2017.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Patient readers, it seems that people are actually reading the back-dated post! But I have not updated it, and there are many updates. So I will have to do that. –lambert

I have moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Party (“the Democrat Party is a rotting corpse that can’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I will periodically add material, summarizing the addition here in a “live” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It turns out that defining the Democrat Party is, in fact, a hard problem. I do think the paragraph that follows is on point all the way back to 2016, if not before:

d>. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” of course.) Second, all the working parts of the Party reinforce each other. Leave aside characterizing the relationships between elements of the Party (ka-ching, but not entirely) those elements comprise a network — a Flex Net? An iron octagon? — of funders, vendors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with assets in the press and the intelligence community.

Note, of course, that the class power of the PMC both expresses and is limited by other classes; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial model’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to mind. Suck up, kick down.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Large numbers of Americans want a strong, rough, anti-democratic leader” [The Conversation]. “As scholars interested in how committed citizens are to democracy, we wanted to measure whether regular Americans want someone who will abide by democratic traditions and practices or dispense with them. Using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 respondents, we found that a large proportion of Americans are willing to support leaders who would violate democratic principles.” • Handy chart:

I dunno. Tough in the same ways? Cracking down on the same deviants?

“Public Christian schools? Leonard Leo’s allies advance a new cause” [Politico]. “Groups aligned with the conservative legal movement and its financial architect, Leonard Leo, are working to promote a publicly funded Christian school in Oklahoma, hoping to create a test case to change the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the First Amendment’s separation of church and state. At issue is the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Oklahoma’s push to create the St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School, which would be the nation’s first religious school entirely funded by taxpayers. The school received preliminary approval from the state’s charter school board in June. If it survives legal challenges, it would open the door for state legislatures across the country to direct taxpayer funding to the creation of Christian or other sectarian schools.” • Ugh.

#COVID19

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

Chris Cuomo has Long Covid. Perhaps that is turning the tide in the media?

When even CBS morning news is recommending N95/KN95 masks over surgical masks and #hicpac @CDCgov say “your choice” we have a serious issue with who is running infection control in the U.S. @WHO #covid #longcovid #measles #tb #nipah #flu https://t.co/L3n0ss6kBo

— Martha Young- JD, MBA, N95- clean the air: (@mryoung151) January 3, 2024

Stop living in fear:

Why do bomb experts dress up in all this ridiculous safety gear? Grow a pair. https://t.co/j1unNKzVfY

— The Power To Control (@Power2Control) January 2, 2024

“Relative Efficacy of Masks and Respirators as Source Control for Viral Aerosol Shedding from People Infected with SARS-CoV-2: A Human Controlled Trial” [The Lancet]. From the Abstract”: “We compared efficacy of masks (cloth and surgical) and respirators (KN95 and N95) as source control for SARS-CoV-2 viral load in exhaled breath of volunteers with COVID-19. Volunteers provided paired unmasked and masked breath samples allowing computation of source-control factors. Findings: All masks and respirators significantly reduced exhaled viral load, without fit tests or training. A duckbill N95 reduced exhaled viral load by 98% (95% CI: 97% to 99%), and significantly outperformed a KN95 (p<0·001) as well as cloth and surgical masks. Cloth masks outperformed a surgical mask (p=0·012) and the tested KN95 (p=0·028). Interpretation: These results suggest that N95 respirators could be the standard of care in nursing homes and healthcare settings when respiratory viral infections are prevalent in the community and healthcare-associated transmission risk is elevated." • I can't believe these guys think CDC "community" levels are appropriate. They lag! The standrard of care should be N95s continuously and universally.

Censorship and Propaganda

This really demands a lawsuit:

We tried to get a #billboard up in #timesquare tonight for #NYE to raise awareness about #longcovid but it was declined 3x and the 4th attempt has been left on “pending review” for days with other ads across country declined as well. We were hoping for a last minute miracle as it…

— COVID-19 Longhauler Advocacy Project (@C19LH_Advocacy) January 1, 2024

Denial and Cope

‘Tis a mystery!

"I'm at my wits end. I feel guilty going out or wanting to set a play date up for him, but with no end in sight is it fair to just keep him home?
Anyone else going through it this year? 😭"

2/2

Is it just me or do they seem more concerned about s social life than kids' health? pic.twitter.com/ifZk8mDwNC

— OldFashionedAnne (@oldfshndanne) January 2, 2024

Mom’s groups exert a lot of power of their members. Are they all like this? Readers?

This is wildly speculative, but we desperately need an account of what seems to be society-wide destructive behavior, both to self and others, following Covid infection (as shown by, sigh, anecdote, but there are rather a lot of them. We have, I believe, filed such under “loss of executive function”). We need to start somewhere, and it might as well be here. I hope the type isn’t too small; here is the entire thread.

(NT = neurotypical; ND = neurodivergent.) Pragmatically, a “host manipulation” narrative (not science, narrative) might be a conscience-salving/blame-removal persuasion technique, perhaps more appropriate than moralizing (which I freely admit I engage in, since people recklessly infecting others seems to me to be completely beyond the pale. But not everybody thinks that way. So my moralizing hasn’t been much use, has it?)

Prevention

“Inhibitory Effect of Ophthalmic Solutions against SARS-CoV-2: A Preventive Action to Block the Viral Transmission?” (PDF) [Microorganisms]. 2021, still germane. From the Abstract: “It has also been demonstrated that the ocular surface can constitute a transmission route, especially in hospital settings, where health care workers can become a dangerous source of infection. In order to increase prevention and reduce the spread of the virus on the ocular surface, the antiviral activity of already-marketed eye drops against SARS-CoV-2 was evaluated. Iodim, Ozodrop, Septavis, and Dropsept were tested against SARS-CoV-2 in plaque-assay experiments at different stimulation times. Furthermore, the expression levels of early and late genes were evaluated through molecular assays. Results indicated that three of the four ophthalmic solutions showed a considerable dose-dependent inhibition of viral replication, highlighting their use as potential antiviral drugs against SARS-CoV-2 and preventing other ocular infections.” • No reason not to add another layer of defense. Not sure this is the best study, but it’s the one I found (and I worry a bit that promising lines of search in 2020 – 2021 were cut off).

“Something Awful”

Lambert here: I’m getting the feeling that the “Something Awful” might be a sawtooth pattern — variant after variant — that averages out to a permanently high plateau. Lots of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we might add brain damage, including personality changes therefrom.

* * *

Origins Debate

“Italian study finds SARS-CoV-2 in clinical samples collected before December 2019” [News Medical Life Sciences]. From 2022, still germane. “Several studies suggest that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in many nations prior to its official detection. In fact, SARS-CoV-2 ribonucleic acid (RNA) has been detected in wastewater samples obtained in Brazil and Northern Italy in 2019…. Of the 11 pre-pandemic samples that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, nine were collected in 2019. The earliest SARS-CoV-2-positive urine sample was collected on September 12, 2019, from an eight-month-old child who also had detectable serum levels of SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM. None of the SARS-CoV-2-positive samples were positive when the Real-Time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic protocol was used. This indicates that all samples exhibited low viral loads that were less than the detection threshold level.” • Interesting. The article also mentions a contemporaneous uptick in measles/rubella.

Elite Maleficence

This whole conversation is worth clicking into the images for:

I have been saying for years that many people's insurance plan is making sure no one else is able to protect themselves from Covid, so if they're wrong about it being nbd, we'll all be in the same boat. Most people wouldn't admit this thought process out loud. But some do: pic.twitter.com/giZmlgrAZy

— lizwhatsherface (@RealGayArbys) January 1, 2024

“The change should come from our leaders.”

Another leadership failure:

1) Covid is predominantly airborne spread.
2) >50% of transmission is from asymptomatic people
3) LongCOVID is real, and impacts a substantial number of people.
We've NEVER EVER EVER had these three things told to us by the system. Not once. Not by our leaders. 7/ pic.twitter.com/QasFxR3E0l

— 𝙹𝚘𝚎 𝚅𝚒𝚙𝚘𝚗𝚍 joseph.vipond@ucalgary.ca (@jvipondmd) January 3, 2024

A failure that must be recognized and rejected with great force:

Adding one more little nuance.
Taking the leap to wearing a respirator all the time, at work, means accepting that those in power, appointed to protect you, literally haven't been doing their job, placing you at risk.
That's a lot to absorb. Not everyone can do it. pic.twitter.com/gS2v4JmtmC

— 𝙹𝚘𝚎 𝚅𝚒𝚙𝚘𝚗𝚍 joseph.vipond@ucalgary.ca (@jvipondmd) January 3, 2024

* * *

Case Data

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater data, December 23:

Lambert here: Still going up. As a totally “gut feel” tapewatcher, I would expect this peak to meet or exceed the two previous Biden peaks; after all, we haven’t really begun the next bout of holiday travel, or the next rounds of superspreading events celebrations. Plus students haven’t come from from school, and then returned. So a higher peak seems pretty much “baked in.” And that’s before we get to new variants, like JN.1. The real thing to watch is the slope of the curve. If it starts to go vertical, and if it keeps on doing so, then hold onto your hats.

Regional data:

Regional split continues.

• FFS:

Happy New Year 🎆 There is no data update for this week because our team took some well-deserved rest over the holidays. We will return to our regular schedule next week!

— Biobot Analytics (@BiobotAnalytics) January 2, 2024

Verily and CDC are also not updated. So here we are in the midst of a peak, and no data. What a public health debacle.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, December 23:

Lambert here: JN.1 now dominates. That was fast.

From CDC, December 9:

Lambert here: I sure hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart depends, don’t all move on the green fields and pastures new (or have their access to facilities cut by administrators of ill intent).

CDC: “As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 30:

Lambert: Return to upward movement. Only a week’s lag, so this may be our best current nationwide, current indicator.

NOTE “Charts and data provided by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the past year, using a rolling 52-week period.” So not the entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message here being that Covid is “just like the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week period” is appropriate for both_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these people so much}. Notice also that this chart shows, at least for its time period, that Covid is not seasonal, even though CDC is trying to get us to believe that it is, presumably so they can piggyback on the existing institutional apparatus for injections. And of course, we’re not even getting into the quality of the wastewater sites that we have as a proxy for Covid infection overall.

Hospitalization

NOT UPDATED Bellwether New York City, data as of December 29:

Lambert here: I still don’t like the slope of that curve, and notice we’re approaching previous peak levels (granted, not 2020 or 2022, but respectable).

NOT UPDATED Here’s a different CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, but with a date, at least. December 23:

Moving ahead briskly!

Lambert here: “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So where the heck is the update, CDC?

Positivity

Lambert here: Notice that for both Walgreens and the Cleveland Clinic, that although the percentage of positives is stable, the absolute numbers have greatly increased; Walgreen’s doubled. This speaks well of people; they’re getting tested before the holidays (and in face of a shit*tstorm barrage of propaganda and peer pressure to minimize, too).

From Walgreens, January 2:

1.1%. Up. (It would be interesting to survey this population generally; these are people who, despite a tsunami of official propaganda and enormous peer pressure, went and got tested anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, December 30:

Lambert here: Percentage plateaued. Absolute numbers steadily increasing.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s data, December 11:

Turning down.

Down, albeit in the rear view mirror. And here are the variants for travelers, December 4:

BA.2.86 back up, totally dominant. This would be a great early warning system, if the warning were in fact early, instead of weeks late, good job, CDC.

Deaths

Here is the New York Times, based on CDC data, December 23:

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US improved slightly to 47.4 in December 2023 from 46.7 in November, and better than market forecasts of 47.1. Still, the reading pointed to the 14th month of contraction in factory activity, prolonging the most extended period of declining activity since 2000-2001.”

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 75 Extreme Greed (previous close: 75 Extreme Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 76 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jan 3 at 1:24:16 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

“REVIEW: The Need to Be Whole” [Current Affairs]. Wendell Berry: “We need a new respect for propriety of scale and the law of return, both of which are essential, and they are closely related. Sir Albert Howard understood what he called ‘The Law of Return’ as one of nature’s fundamental laws. It requires that whatever nutrients and organic materials are taken from the land must be returned. This probably is the fundamental law of sustainability, and it depends on getting the scale right, which usually means fairly small scale.'” • I learned the slogan “Let no organic matter leave the property” from permaculture, but had not idea it was parallel to (or derived from) Berry.

L’Affaire Joffrey Epstein

“Who Are the Newly Revealed Jeffrey Epstein Associates?” [New York Magazine]. “Below, a look at the new names contained in the various reports and how they have been linked to Epstein, as well as additional developments in the mysterious saga.” • The usual suspects. Useful because it integrates these revelations with all the previous ones. The interesting question, to me, is how anyone at the elite level — say, anyone with staff — could possibly meet with Epstein without knowing who and what he was. Unless what Epstein was is unremarkable among the lizard people in elite circles.

Class Warfare

“Starbucks union fight is grinding down the company — and workers at local cafes” [Boston Globe]. “Three months ago, baristas at a Starbucks in Beverly narrowly voted to unionize, hoping for better wages, working conditions, and benefits. Now only four of the 14 employees who cast votes in that election remain at the cafe, said barista Rob Stevens — a high turnover rate that threatens the union’s momentum as Starbucks pushes back. Many baristas left, after what Stevens said were petty retaliations by managers, such as dinging them over dress clothes prohibitions, or scheduling them for either too few or too many hours. (Starbucks denies those allegations.) He intends to hang on, but it’s getting lonely. ‘I’ll be a thorn in their side until I die,’ he said. ‘But I’m just scared that it’ll be left to me.’ His is a fairly common sentiment among veteran baristas at newly unionized Starbucks locations across the region, as the fight to organize the Seattle coffee giant enters its third year. Starbucks remains one of the biggest-name battlegrounds in the wave of union activity that has swept the country since the COVID pandemic, with an estimated 9,000 workers at nearly 380 stores nationwide, and around 20 in New England, voting to join Starbucks Workers United. But only a few of these locals have sat down with the company to even begin negotiations. (Starbucks has around 15,000 retail locations in the United States.) In a high-turnover industry, such delays can quickly sap enthusiasm, threatening to bring the union campaign that came to define the resurgence of American labor to a standstill.”

“Paying workers like it’s 2009” [Popular Information]. “Even in 2009, $7.25 was not a lot of money. But in 2024, paying someone $7.25 for an hour of labor is deeply exploitative. A full-time employee working 52 weeks per year will earn just $15,080, well below the poverty line for a family of any size. The real value of the minimum wage is 40% lower than it was in 1970. This is the longest period without an increase since the federal minimum wage was established in 1938. If the minimum wage had kept pace with worker productivity gains since 1968 — when the value of the minimum wage peaked — it would have reached $23 per hour by 2021.

News of the Wired

“Are Humans Still Evolving? ‘Maybe More Rapidly Than Ever,’ Says Scientist” [Newsweek]. “‘It is my belief that cultural variation with respect to things like preference for large families or small families will drive much of the evolution of humans in the near future. Lots of the evolution we see on a species-wide scale will be driven by demographic differences among populations that happen to correlate with differences in gene frequencies among those populations [uh, classes]. Genes that are common in populations [erm, classes] that are expanding will increase in frequency, and genes that are common in populations that are contracting will decrease in frequency,’ [Jason Hodgson, an anthropologist and evolutionary geneticist at Anglia Ruskin University in the United Kingdom] said.” • So, portions of the population highly adapted to capitalism, for good or ill? Not sure how, or if, that would collide with the Jackpot. My guess is that capitalist adaptation will ultimately prove maladaptive.

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From TH:

TH writes: “Is any part of this flower in focus? I think not, but like it anyway.” I don’t think so either, but it’s a lovely composition!

• Kind readers, I still am not comfortable that I have enough plants in the queue. Snow-covered trees! Icy flowers! The fall harvest! Autumn leaves! Last year’s wildflowers! Also, of course, honorary plants like fungi and lichen! Algae!

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Contact information for lambert: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com. To help me sort the avalanche of mail and to make sure I don’t miss any of your communications, please put (where relevant) one of the following as the first word of your subject line (of course you can write other words, following the first):

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