Links 6/22/2025

Yves here. Haig assembles his links Saturday evening, which means he can be a bit behind the state of play with breaking news. I added some Iran links and also have a post up. So please do not criticize but instead help us all find the signal in the considerable noise. This looks like the GFC: too much action on weekends.

Is Mathematics Mostly Chaos or Mostly Order? Quanta Magazine

The Criminal Justice System Was Found Guilty in the Karen Read Trial Reason

World’s Smallest Self-Powered Bipedal Robot Sets New Speed Record SciTech Daily

COVID-19/Pandemics

New COVID-19 variant causes ‘razor blade throat’ The Hill

Excessive drinking​ linked to jump in high blood pressure deaths during COVID pandemic, CDC report says CBS News

Climate/Environment

Climate Change Will Bankrupt the Country The American Prospect

Here’s what your ChatGPT queries are costing the environment Prestige Online

China?

China’s reusable rocket Zhuque-3 completes major engine cluster test CGTN

Chinese researchers invent silicon photonic multiplexer chip that uses light instead of electricity for communication Tom’s Hardware

China’s J-35 Naval Stealth Fighter Seen Like Never Before The War Zone

China has millions of single men – could dating camp help them find love? BBC

South of the Border

Mexico’s judicial reform is a warning for democracies everywhere The Michigan Daily

Argentines reel from health care cutbacks as President Milei’s state overhaul mirrors Trump’s AP

‘Survive, nothing more’: Cuba’s elderly live hand to mouth AFP

European Disunion

IMF chief: European lifestyle is at risk if productivity isn’t boosted Euro News

European Commission outlines immediate plans for €210bn in frozen Russian assets Ukrainska Pravda

Old Blighty

Furious locals in UK city of culture claim their title is a joke as council allows fly-tippers to dump with impunity turning their homes into vermin breeding grounds Daily Mail

UK Parliament approves assisted dying bill: How would it work? Al Jazeera

Israel v. Gaza/Yemen/Syria/Iran

This is pretty wimpy. Is Iran temporizing while it assesses what happened? But not fully, see below, it immediately launched new strikes. But the question of moving up the escalation ladder is still in play. Iran’s atomic body condemns American assault on nuclear sites, vows legal action PressTV. But see also from the day prior: Interceptor missile stockpiles in crosshairs, Iran warns Israeli regime, US

Iran Calls for Emergency UNSC Meeting following US Aggression on Nuclear Sites Tasnim News

Trump warns Iran against retaliation, says ‘tragedy’ will follow if counter-attacks launched Anadolu Agency

UN watchdog says no increase in radiation off sites that the US hit Arab News

Israel-Iran war live: Trump says key nuclear facilities ‘obliterated’ by US; missiles hit Israel after Iran launches retaliatory strikes Guardian

Israeli experts say Tel Aviv’s goal of overthrowing Iranian government unlikely to succeed Andolu Agency

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Poised for More Power WSJ

Israel says it hit Iran nuclear research facility, killed top commanders as both trade strikes The Hill

Israeli forces push deeper into Syria as strikes with Iran enter second week Middle East Eye

Israel Turns Gaza Aid Distribution Sites Into Open Killing Fields Drop Site

New Not-So-Cold War

Ukraine: Life in a partially destroyed building in Kyiv France 24

Use of nuclear weapons against Russia would be Kyiv’s ‘last mistake,’ Putin warns Andolu Agency

Vladimir Putin tells Russia ‘all of Ukraine is ours’ The Independent

How 3 years of war have ravaged Ukraine’s forests, and the people who depend on them Kyiv Independent

Big Brother Is Watching You Watch

Smart TV OS owners face “constant conflict” between privacy, advertiser demands Ars Technica

Federal Court Strikes Down HIPAA Reproductive Health Care Privacy Rule National law Review

Imperial Collapse Watch

Santa Clara County finds record number of homeless residents in latest count The Mercury News

Trump 2.0

US moving B-2 bombers as Trump weighs Iran response: Reports The Hill

Scoop: Trump’s backchannel to Iran failed after supreme leader went dark Axios

Trump Calls For Special Prosecutor To Investigate Rigged 2020 Election The Federalist

Second War Breaks Out in Trump’s Dysfunctional Administration The Daily Beast

Musk Matters

How much of a future does Elon Musk really have in US politics? SCMP

Elon Musk’s stunning three-word reaction to SpaceX Starship exploding in fireball The Independent

Musk’s ‘fail fast’ ethos has faltered in Washington Washington Examiner

Democrat Death Watch

Former Clinton campaign chief on Democrats: ‘We’re leaderless, we’re messageless, we’re agendaless’ The Hill

Former Clinton campaign manager laments ‘leaderless’ state of Dems as Biden remains ‘off the radar’ Fox News

Immigration

Many Americans are witnessing immigration arrests for the first time and reacting AP

Gardeners reportedly taken by ICE agents while mowing outside California home The Hill

Mahmoud Khalil released from ICE custody in Louisiana ABC News

Our No Longer Free Press

SPJ joins coalition expressing alarm over detention of journalist Mario Guevara Editor and Publisher

Justice Department says it will resume practice of obtaining reporters’ records in leak inquiries AP

Mr. Market Is Moody

Dollar-Free Future Accelerates as Putin and BRICS Bank Chief Discuss Digital Payment Platform Bitcoin.com News

In The Eye of the Bond Market Hurricane? Financial Sense

Why a top market strategist says his base case is still a 25% stock drop and a recession in 2025 Business Insider

AI

AI doesn’t have to reason to take your job Vox.com

Intel to outsource marketing to Accenture and AI, resulting in more layoffs Tom’s Hardware

Using AI bots like ChatGPT could be causing cognitive decline, new study shows Euro News

The Bezzle

Think your bank account is protected from fraud? Here’s what the FDIC actually covers—and what it doesn’t WBRC News

Scam Alert: Local officials warn of new bank card scheme CW39 Houston

Guillotine Watch


(Cost: $3,600 – $4,800 per person per night)

Antidote du jour (via)

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here

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129 comments

  1. Terry Flynn

    Of course I’d weigh in on the maths article. Thanks very much for this. The notion of infinity is one that impinged upon my work for pretty much my whole career. Health economics patted themselves on the back before year 2000 with their work on “cost-effectiveness ratios” to help countries such as UK, Australia, Canada, NZ, and much of western Europe prioritise in a “fair” way. They got a nasty surprise when someone pointed out that if you divide a normally distributed cost by a normally distributed variable representing effectiveness in some way, the resulting ratio has a mean but the 2nd moment (the variance) is undefined – “infinite” really.

    Thus health economists found themselves in a really difficult bind. If there were as many humans in a health econometric study as atoms in the universe, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be no more precisely estimated than a simple study done at one university/hospital. Oops.

    One minor criticism of the researchers: I wish they wouldn’t use standard mathematical terms (like cardinal) to mean something else. It introduces opportunities for talking at cross-purposes. Plus the title (IMO) is one of those, whilst not clickbait, ones that is definitely written for the “news cycle” ;-) But it’s a welcome piece in getting people talking about infinity since it underpins (even if practitioners don’t realise it) so many applied study results.

    Reply
    1. vao

      “If there were as many humans in a health econometric study as atoms in the universe, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be no more precisely estimated than a simple study done at one university/hospital.”

      Doesn’t the Cauchy distribution exhibit similar characteristics? I vaguely remember the fun-fact “here is a bell-shaped probability density curve that has a mean but whose variance cannot be computed” from the statistics course at the University.

      Reply
      1. Terry Flynn

        Yep. My memory for certain “special cases” etc isn’t what is was, but IIRC certain patterns of normal divided by normal do in fact give the Cauchy, but I’m happy to be corrected on that since it might just be that we used the Cauchy to “get a handle” on wtf was going on wrt the cost-effectiveness ratios.

        This kind of thing is just one reason why black swan events can be far more “white” than people expect. It is also why I, in my later choice models, wherever possible obtained enough preference information from respondents to construct the EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EACH INDIVIDUAL’s PREFERENCES. Interestingly, this was done most successfully by me in a study of end-of-life care preferences so I have pretty strong views on the assisted dying stuff referred to elsewhere in the links.

        I was bored and not too tired yesterday and tried another AI to see what was spit out about Best-Worst Scaling. Surprise surprise, a certain researcher published a review piece last year that was absolutely terrible and so blatantly biased I found it funny rather than annoying. He’s probably in line for Trump funding cuts, however, so what goes around comes around.

        Reply
      2. hk

        Cauchy is the distribution of normally distributed indep rv’s with zero means (zero means part is important). I can’t remember the particulars (other than it can’t be calculated directly), but estimating variance for ratios of more generic RV’s, even indep normally distributed ones, is messy and can only be approximated.

        Reply
    2. Socal Rhino

      One of my favorite topics in undergrad calculus (now a vague memory) was the analysis of infinities of different sizes.

      Reply
      1. scott s.

        In my comp sci we did number theory and set/language theory. At the time there was a book I found very intriguing: “Gödel, Escher, Bach: an Eternal Golden Braid” by Douglas Hofstadter.

        Reply
    3. ChrisPacific

      There wasn’t really enough detail in the article to follow the arguments. I think Cantor’s proof of a hierarchy of infinities proves that they are partially ordered, but doesn’t prove a strict ordering. I don’t see any particular reason to believe that the infinity hierarchy should be isomorphic to the whole numbers, although I guess the axiom of choice does kind of point in that direction.

      Here we are talking about something called ‘hereditarily ordinal definable’ which seems to just mean a strict order? If it does, I wish they’d just use that term. If it doesn’t, what’s the difference? And the idea that adding a smaller infinity to a larger one and producing something that’s bigger than both is a pretty dramatic result, but what kind of ‘adding’ are we talking about here? Surely not set union, as I think I could disprove that pretty easily if it was.

      Taking a quick look at the paper, it seems like there are a lot of technical details and definitions that are being omitted to give this simplified account. I’m all for that generally, but I feel like it’s gone too far in this case, and all the useful information has been flattened out.

      Reply
  2. The Rev Kev

    “Scoop: Trump’s back channel to Iran failed after supreme leader went dark”

    I read that based on past events, the Iranians were suspicious that maybe Trump was trying to lure him out into the open so that he could be murdered by the Israelis and that is why he went dark. Ugh. Trump talk with forked tongue. For the next three and a half years no country’s leaders are going to believe a word that he says. Same too with his MAGA base too from what I have read. It’s still only June and maybe Trump has already incinerated his Presidency.

    Reply
    1. Randall Flagg

      >For the next three and a half years no country’s leaders are going to believe a word that he says. Same too with his MAGA base too from what I have read. It’s still only June and maybe Trump has already incinerated his Presidency.

      Based on this and the last three and a half decades of Presidents (likely longer), I would argue it’ll be three and a half centuries before anyone in the Middle East believes anything a “Leader” in the US says. Those Countries have been around much longer than we have.

      Reply
    2. Nikkikat

      I think Trump has become somewhat of a joke to even his followers. Who thinks people are going to go along with 7.00 dollar a gallon gas because he renamed the Gulf of Mexico.? I have had to admit that I didn’t think he would be this bad, but there doesn’t seem to be anything that was planned or thought through. Just irrational nonsense. Considering the clowns who have been elected in the past, he seems to be one of the biggest!

      Reply
      1. Samuel Conner

        > Just irrational nonsense.

        The level of failure to foresee probable consequences seems worse than in past.

        I wonder how many CV infections these people have had.

        Perhaps we’re seeing widespread “impaired executive function” within the Executive Branch.

        Reply
      2. mahna

        His cunning plan for the gas price was renaming Persian Gulf to Arabian Gulf, so that the Persians could not control it any more.

        Reply
        1. OIFVet

          It would still require keeping the Strait of Melania open to all comers carrying precious petroleum fluids and other valuable tributes.

          Reply
      3. LawnDart

        Iranian parliament moves to close Strait of Hormuz after US aggression: Lawmaker

        In a decisive response to the US aggression against Iran’s peaceful nuclear facilities, the Iranian parliament has voted to close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

        Speaking to Press TV last week, strategic experts said the direct American military intervention will prove costly for the US and the Donald Trump administration, especially if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

        Most multi-national corporations around the world would shut down within days as energy supplies necessary to keep them running would run out, they warned.

        According to some forecasts, oil prices are likely to jump 80 percent in the very first week if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, as alternative routes would incur heavy costs.

        https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/06/22/750031/iranian-parliament-moves-close-strait-hormuz-after-us-aggression-lawmaker

        Reply
        1. Yves Smith

          The claim that most multinationals would shut down is a bit much.

          And still needs to be decided by the Supreme National Security Council.

          But I hope this happens. It’s the fastest path to knocking some sense into the US.

          Reply
          1. t

            One would hope…but where are the sane people who can orchestrate a reasonable response?

            Many of the mega-donor class are old and may be nihilistic.

            Reply
          1. IM Doc

            Is it just me or does it always seem to be that the consumer gas price goes straight up when the price of oil suddenly goes up – but takes weeks/months to go down when the price of oil goes straight down……

            There really does seem to be a racket going on.

            Reply
            1. Glen

              America is an oil exporter too:

              From Ban To Boom: U.S. Set New Oil Export Record In 2023
              https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2024/03/19/from-ban-to-boom-us-set-new-oil-export-record-in-2023/

              So the America government pretty much lets the oil companies set a US price based on events that will not impact American production at all. (You would think America First could do something about this, but no.)

              America does try to regulate oil prices in other places (with sanctions):

              Russia’s Fuel Oil Exports to India and Turkey Jump as Prices Drop
              https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Fuel-Oil-Exports-to-India-and-Turkey-Jump-as-Prices-Drop.html

              And unlisted there, but be sure China gets great oil prices too.

              Just don’t expect the American government to do anything to make your gas prices better. Only America’s “enemies” get special treatment. Strange hm?

              Reply
        2. Jokerstein

          As I posted in Yves’ Iran thread earlier, Marine Traffic is showing almost all tankers (red) anchored (dots) outside the Strait of Hormuz. Many (most?) are off Fujairah in the UAE, but still plenty midstream. I don’t know what the normal traffic pattern looks like, but there appear to be only three or so headed through the strait (arrow shows direction of travel – hover/click for more details) to the Persian Gulf.

          Reply
      4. scott s.

        <"I think Trump has become somewhat of a joke to even his followers."

        Not seeing it. A sample of what I read differs:

        "He’s just doing the right thing and he’s doing it quickly so he can dispatch with it and get on with MAGA."

        "I trust Trump… the rest of ’em is a totally different story…"

        "I’m not outright, categorically condemning this, but sure looks like he’s being manipulated into this course of action. "

        "PDJT would never allow himself to be a Neville Chamberlain."

        "Deflection, sleight of hand, drawing the curtain; Trump doesn’t fall for their tactics, he sets up his own counter measures."

        "God has answered many prayers. If you doubt this, remind this: two separate assassination attempts, two failed impeachment efforts, numerous almost 100 criminal charges by commie rat bastards, and this man, OUR CHAMPION, remains true to his promise"

        IMO it's going to take a lot more to create a real break in his base.

        Reply
    3. steppenwolf fetchit

      Trump’s Presidency is based in part of destroying American government down to Project 2025-recommended levels. His Presidency will remain alive and well and advancing that mission as long as he is in office.

      The “movement” part of the MAGA base will forgive him for this attack because they support the rest of what the TrumpAdmin is doing. The Cult part of the MAGA base will worship their Divine God-Emperor the same as before. The National Christianists will support Trump as their tool for establishing their Gilead Republic. The Rapture-Armageddon community will support Trump as their ladder of chaos leading to their end goal of global thermonuclear war to sterilize and sanctify the Earth in preparation for the Return of Their Lord and Savior Jesus Christ to rule for a Thousand Years of Righteousness.

      So . . . no. Trump has not incinerated his Presidency. He is just getting his Presidency started.

      Reply
  3. leaf

    >the embedded tweet from that vividprowess account
    I feel like I’ve seen a few community notes under his posts showing that he is actually an Indian larping as an Israeli
    Why, I have no idea but I always have a small chuckle every time I see those community notes under his posts
    Incredible that even hasbara posting has been outsourced to India

    Reply
    1. Terry Flynn

      >I feel like I’ve seen a few community notes under his posts showing that he is actually an Indian larping as an Israeli

      I’m not surprised. Occasionally when bored when something kicks off in either country I’ll hold my nose and look what’s happening on Twitter. There’s a lot of variation among Zionists in Israel about “Indian support”. Some welcome having a big country supporting them, other than the USA. However there are a LOT of hardline comments that I can’t possibly repeat that, let’s just say tap into every trope about Indians that you could imagine or have seen.

      Larping as an Israeli might be a way to avoid all the abuse from certain Zionists. Just a thought based on the cesspit of comments you see on Twitter on the entire subject of Israeli-Indian mutual support.

      Reply
  4. Terry Flynn

    The NIMBUS Covid variant is most definitely spreading in UK. One of my best friends (in NW England) has had it. Yep, the razor-blade sore throat thing tipped him off. Took him 2 weeks to get back to something approximating normal, hence why I’m being doubly careful masking etc.

    I really can’t afford to get this one. I was very impressed at my opthalmologist a few days ago. He’s the UK East Midlands Regional specialist for a bunch of eye conditions and keeps up with the literature. *HE* certainly knew COVID was fully airborne. As soon as he realised I was his next patient and was fully masked he apologised that the necessary checks on micro-vascular stuff the GP wanted would require me to take the mask off, to enable me to properly get my chin on the machine etc but he immediately said he’d mask up.

    For a moment my heart sank when I saw him get a blue baggy surgical mask. However, then he proceeded to use heavy duty surgical tape to eliminate/vastly reduce the air-gaps and create a seal to his face and I spotted the updated a/c system in the ceiling, running on full. Good stuff. We talked shop after he told me what was going on with my vision and he had plenty of horror stories about patients in their 20s who were fit athletic people who ended up in ICU and now live their life on mobility scooters with O2 tanks etc. Very very sad.

    Reply
    1. Carla

      Hi, Terry — Curious to me that your opthalmologist isn’t concerned enough about getting the NIMBUS variant himself that he would routinely mask all day in his office and his examining room. But apparently not…

      Reply
      1. Terry Flynn

        Indeed. That was the first consultation in 30 years where he said some stuff that suggested he’d entered “don’t care anymore” territory. He had NEVER before said anything about the international monopoly on spectacle frames, how the reason why he and others were so desperate to sell them was because the UK govt vastly under reimburses him for his detailed eye examinations so he is forced to cross subsidise.

        His wife is no longer listed as active on staff list. I didn’t wanna ask why. He himself had major health event years ago. Wondering if he is in “don’t give a family blog anymore” mode.

        Reply
  5. vao

    The article Israeli forces push deeper into Syria as strikes with Iran enter second week contains information that makes me wonder about the mentality of the zionists:

    “they destroyed at least 15 homes and vast areas of forest and agricultural land.”

    “Israeli forces began excavating forests in the Jubata al-Khashab Nature Reserve and land in adjacent areas, reportedly with the aim of establishing Israeli military bases and observation points.”

    “Israeli forces deliberately attacked water pipelines and critical infrastructure when they stormed al-Hamidiyah and the village of Juba in Quneitra”

    Israelis have flattened Gaza, razed many villages and parts of Beirut to the ground, and are now are levelling Syria. They are the ultimate nihilists — they do not even try to take advantage of what exists, they just want to destroy everything that belongs and was built by supposedly existential enemies. I fear that at some point they will have incensed so many, that there will be no magnanimity whatsoever left for Jews. Once they weaken, the ultimate revenge — annihilation — may well be exacted upon them.

    Reply
    1. bertl

      That’s the thing which should terrify us: that we allow people to confuse Jews with Zionists – who are the most revolting anti-semites known to man or beast. And that confusion has long been a strategic objective of Zionism and we should always call it out when we come across it. I assume the nearest thing Zionist have to a belief system is a combination of worldly nihilism and, spiritually, the most evil of Satanic cults.

      Reply
  6. Antifaxer

    Trump Calls For Special Prosecutor To Investigate Rigged 2020 Election The Federalist

    1) What a title, no room for nuance there…

    2) The main gripe seems to be rich people donating money?! Didn’t musk just sink a cool $100m into our last election for trump?

    3) This is definitely leading us down the path of never having elections again, or sham elections (where the dear leader gets 90% of the vote)

    I really wonder how the history books are going to portray the downfall of America

    Reply
    1. mrsyk

      I really wonder how the history books are going to portray the downfall of America
      The final chapter begins with the 2000 election leading to 9/11.
      A couple of points. 2000 election makes cheating the national ok. 2004, remember Ohio? 2008, Dick Cheney certainly remembers Ohio this time around.
      2020. There is ample evidence of “rigging”. Back in the day, I dug into Georgia’s results, and they smell off. VoterGA, a non partisan state election watchdog, has exhaustive and convincing documentation demonstrating that extensive fraud occurred and influenced the result.
      So riddle me this. Where would we be today if Trump had won 2020? Obviously I don’t know the specific answer to this, but I have to wonder if we would still have our scientific institutions, and our federal agencies that protect us from corporate and elite interests.

      Reply
      1. Terry Flynn

        I do not disagree. I’d add the 2016 Iowa Caucus to the list of “dodgy stuff” where HRC beat Sanders and arguably got the momentum going for her nomination.

        Now, in retrospect, lots of people better steeped in US politics than I have pointed out how and where Sanders has knuckled under to “Democrat central control” subsequently so in hindsight maybe we shouldn’t look at him with rose-coloured spectacles.

        However, it is really funny (in a not funny haha way at all) that had Iowa been a primary, not caucus, and seen the initial percentages, any of the three candidates could have “won”, depending on whether Iowa had followed some other states in considering alternatives to First-Past-The-Post (in common with a couple of other states). It could’ve made things VERY interesting……

        Reply
      2. .human

        …if we would still have our scientific institutions, and our federal agencies that protect us from corporate and elite interests

        Did you forget your /sarc tag?

        Reply
      3. GramSci

        What institutions and federal agencies that protected us from corporate and elite interests? The CFPB?? The EPA?? The CDC?? ‘Our representatives’ in Congress??

        Pretty weak tea. I would say our last chance was the Democratic Natonal Convention of 1944.

        Reply
        1. mrsyk

          I realized from the start that this “thrust” is subject to predating. My view on institutions is restore them to some level of independence, not raze them to the ground. What of the Administrative Procedure Act which generally requires agencies to engage in a “notice and comment” process, soliciting public comment?

          Weak tea is for those living on strict rations, lol, next stop?

          Reply
        1. mrsyk

          There is that possibility. But Jan 6 would not have happened. Neither would have the political prosecutions. In my mind, those two actions have greatly influenced Trump’s actions.

          Reply
    2. Neutrino

      Looking forward to pending DOJ and other revelations about the 2020 election.
      Who did what where and why?

      Reply
    1. Terry Flynn

      Haha guessed it’d be that clip. Wouldn’t surprise me if the UK Parliament is horribly uninformed. I’d guess that the majority of people round here are in favour of the general thrust of the Bill, but our MP was probably just voting for it because Sir Keir did *shrug*

      I’m firmly in favour of the principle. My last project in academia that generated peer-reviewed publications (and a chapter in book) was on end-of-life care. Worked with very distinguished clinician in the field from VIC, Australia. He put me right on the “real” stats regarding all those very nasty interventions commonly used in intensive care. The problem is that a large majority of people get their information from watching “Casualty” on BBC on Saturday nights or whatever is the current favourite hospital drama in USA. In truth the proportion of people who undergo the gamut of ICU interventions and return to the same health state they were in is often less than 5%. One of the reasons why so many clinicians have end-of-life care plans in place with DNR font size 72 and a whole host of subsidiary instructions which amount to “let me go with dignity”.

      Interestingly, in our study, though there is no single question or combination of simple questions that enables a clinician to predict whether the unconscious patient “wants the plug pulled”, there is one extremely good predictor of an “unplug me” view: if the patient has observed a loved one go through the end-of-life care pathway (with all the ICU bells and whistles) then they are almost certain to reject this for themselves. One of the most perfect predictors of “segment membership” I EVER saw in 25 years. Food for thought.

      Reply
  7. DJG, Reality Czar

    Ahhh, Memsahib shows up at the Jogi Lodge at the supposed non-profit entity. After weeks of furiously laying off textile workers in the Federated States of Micronesia, she has to have a rest.

    She’s also working on her potential bestseller: “Eat Pray Love a Smiling Slave.”

    Where is this coming from?

    Today’s NYTimes gives a clue: “A White Nationalist Wrote a Law School Paper Promoting Racist Views. It Won Him an Award.
    The University of Florida student won an academic honor after he argued in a paper that the Constitution applies only to white people. From there, the situation spiraled.”

    In 2025, University of Florida law school, and the bottom-feeding Damsky, haven’t heard of “no religious tests for office,” the letter to the Touro Synagogue by George Washington, women voting in New Jersey in the early Republic, and free blacks.

    How convenient. At what point does the U S of A emerge from the nightmare of its past? Is it even possible?

    Also, I ran across this intriguing letter from George Washington to the sultan of Morocco. Curious, that Washington would be writing cordial letters to “non-whites.”

    http://www.rvbeypublications.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/sultan1.pub.pdf

    Reply
  8. The Rev Kev

    “Israeli experts say Tel Aviv’s goal of overthrowing Iranian government unlikely to succeed”

    Well to be fair, Trump did promise to be a unifying President years ago. He just forgot to mention that the country that he was going to unify was Iran. Heckuva job that.

    Reply
    1. chris

      And then there’s this summary just posted by the Guardian:

      Vance said the US wants to pursue a diplomatic process in Iran. He said the United States had successfully set back Iran’s nuclear weapons program, adding that President Donald Trump now hopes to pursue a diplomatic solution.

      “We do not want to protract this or build this out any more than it’s already been built out. We want to end their nuclear program,” Vance said, speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press with Kristen Welker, Reuters reports.

      “We want to talk to the Iranians about a long-term settlement here,” he added.

      He also told NBC he did not believe the conflict with Iran would become a protracted war, said the US had no interest in sending further US troops to the Middle East, and added the US did not want to see regime change in Iran.

      That all seems quite a bit different from what Israel has asked for.

      Reply
      1. The Rev Kev

        What makes you think that this was just not Vance lying his face off? Who believes anything that comes out of the Trump regime?

        Reply
        1. chris

          Entirely possible. But what Vance and Hegseth are saying is contra both our neocons and Israel’s preferences, so it makes me think it might be real. I have no idea what that means in this context. The current situation has evolved as if there was never an option otherwise. What does it matter if the CIC and those in his government disagree with bombing a foreign country? “We” have a schedule to keep!

          Reply
      2. Haig Hovaness Post author

        Vance is watching his political future go up in Mideast bombing smoke. Trump’s blundering unconditional support for Netanyahu can only end in U.S. KIAs, and that will sink Trump in the midterms as he loses his America First base, and Vance in the next presidential election. This is like watching a car crash in slow motion. It is sickeningly predictable.

        Reply
        1. Wukchumni

          In the movies every time a car leaves the road bed it has to explode, despite there being no good reason for it to happen, frankly who wants to see a vehicle just tumble into the abyss without flames and whatnot?

          America feels similar to that Hollywood car~

          Reply
        2. Anonted

          Add to that the Dem responses… certainly the Ayatollah will accept “It was the Republicans!” and call it a day.

          Reply
  9. Lina

    GM all –
    I don’t post here often but do read the links occasionally.

    I’ve been on a bit of a news break the past several months dealing with health issues in my family. I did see the news about US at war with Iran and was hoping someone here can help me understand 2 things that came to mind when I read this (speak to me in Kindergarten terms please LOL):
    1. Didn’t Trump run on MAGA, which (in my mind at least) means – stay out of other people’s business and focus on the US? If so, why did he get us involved in this?
    2. Why is it ok for Israel to have nuclear weapons but not Iran?

    If my questions are too elementary, my apologies. But these are my immediate reactions to this situation…

    Reply
    1. mrsyk

      Good morning. A break from the news sounds like a good idea, but I appear to be addicted.
      Alex Skopic at Current Affairs has the same question.

      Wait, Why Is Israel Allowed To Have Nukes?

      No idea on Question #1. I have read reports that Vance is outside the loop. He does not look happy in last night’s 10:00 pm address.

      Reply
      1. Alice X

        Thank you! I’ve followed Nathan J.R. but don’t check in often enough (? here found).

        Alex Skopic’s piece brings many reinforceable issues to fore.

        Further writings of our world’s miserable continuance will flower, I can hope.

        Reply
    2. Samuel Conner

      > If so, why did he get us involved in this?

      It’s impossible to know, but there are plausible hypotheses — basically, there is a bipartisan consensus that overthrow of the government of Iran would be good for US, and this view is represented among DJT’s advisors and subordinates. DJT may have been tricked into supporting/”greenlighting” the Israeli war on Iran by being told that US would not need to intervene; Israel would do the hard work and US would benefit at little cost to itself (sort of like Biden/Ukraine/Russia).

      If this is approximately correct, one can discern a large mistake in the failure, on DJT’s part, to maintain ambiguity about the US posture toward the war prior to its launch. After the initial apparent success, DJT made some (arguably really inadvisable) public remarks and tweets (“I know everything”) that affirmed his awareness of and approval of the war. After that, everything that has followed has been political necessity and/or face-saving.

      It’s best to keep one’s mouth firmly shut.

      Reply
      1. Randall Flagg

        As been said many times through history:
        “It’s best to remain quiet and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt.”

        Reply
    3. mega

      1. Didn’t Trump run on MAGA, which (in my mind at least) means – stay out of other people’s business and focus on the US? If so, why did he get us involved in this?

      He lied in order to get elected, just like everyone else. Those that believed him failed IQ test, again.

      Reply
      1. GramSci

        IMHO, Trump felt he had to run to get out from under the Dems lawfare attack. Although I voted Green, most Americans agreed with me that the Dems were more ‘unAmerican’ than Trump.

        But like the dog that caught the bus, he and his Republican Congress now feel they have to repay Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson. Of course I don’t think Elon, Miriam, and company will ever be satisfied, so here we are.

        Reply
    4. chris

      Oh, you might just want to keep on your news holiday. Diving deep into what is going on lately could help you be informed but it is guaranteed to challenge your peace of mind.

      To your questions, based on my reading, analysis, and a lot of excellent articles posted on this site by our hosts:

      1.) Yes. Yes, he did. But “We” are not allowed to deviate from the plan it seems, such that even though Trump ran on being the candidate of peace and not following in Sleepy Joe’s shuffling gait, he decided go do exactly that. Our neocons think they can pick up middle eastern nations like Pokémon. They’ll catch them all, put them in nice little boxes for storage, and then everything will be fine. I have no idea why Trump decided that he needed to do exactly what he said he wouldn’t do. I have no idea why anyone on “Our Side” thinks regime change or even seriously damaging Iran is something that will benefit the US. I have no idea why Trump decided to back down so severely after sending Witkoff to chastise Bibi early on this year. On the plus side, you can just remember all the articles that have been discussed over the past four years and recycle them in your mind. The reasons for attacking Iran haven’t improved. The risks the US faces after attacking Iran have not decreased.

      2.) Oh, that’s not the question. What you should ask to rattle the cage of anyone who approves of this latest lunacy is why the US is OK with Pakistan having nuclear weapons, but not Iran. Iran is more stable, has shown itself to be more rigorous, and more careful with nuclear material than Pakistan. So why are we OK with a Muslim country suffering from coups (several of which we’ve supported) having nuclear weapons, but not Iran?

      To sum up both your questions and any answers I could give, the leaders in the US and Europe are following a plan developed to satisfy the desires of madmen. Nothing they’re doing now, or will do in the future, will make any sense unless you reconcile it with the plan for people in the northern hemisphere, and the west in general, to control most of the resources this planet has to offer, despite having an increasingly small percentage of the people living on the planet as their citizens. This doesn’t apply to individual nations. This is all intended to assist some kind of supranational elite who come from Western nations. Im sure they have a mountain hollowed out somewhere so they and an approved population of attractive breeding stock can reside while the world burns for several generations. Also, among those pushing this agenda, now and forever more, the people at the very tippy top have to live like kings. Once you accept these premises, everything they’re doing makes sense. It’s still insane. But it makes sense.

      “Yes, this is what a person who does not value human life and does not ever want to accept the consequences for their mistakes would do. Also, I can see how the US and its vassals controlling all of the oil and critical material inputs for modern technology makes sense. In that case, why should they have to reconcile the costs of their supply? Let the Chinese poison their on ground water to get rare earths. We need new condos in Yellowstone…”

      Reply
    5. Yves Smith

      On 1. Trump lied. He immediately stocked his cabinet with neocons.

      On 2, Iran when it was our puppet (the Shah was nominally in charged) signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel has not.

      Reply
    6. Bill B

      You might want to check out this video posted today by Brian at the New Atlas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tVIgtOAs18&t=2003s. It presents evidence based on a Rand Corp paper (2009) laying it all out. It’s about Russia and China, and U.S. hegemony. This has been in the works for a long time. A lot of people naively thought Trump was different but he’s just a better liar.

      Here’s a link to the paper: https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG781.html

      Reply
    7. jsn

      In the United States politicians at the federal level gain access to the ballot by saying the things the doctrinaire party base wants.

      Once elected, they pursue the policies they were paid to pursue by the people who paid for the research to establish electable messaging for the base.

      Historically (last 60 years), the WSJ and NYT editorial pages functioned as narrative management for Rs and Ds respectively to maintain at least narrative coherence between base interests and actual policies pursued.

      This broke down when HopeyChangy guy skipped out on both hope and change. Since then there’s been an escalating reliance on thought policing, intimidation and censorship causing both official narratives to drift beyond any visible relationship to reality.

      Short version: they say what they’re told to say or discover works to get elected; once elected they do what they’re paid or expect to get paid to do.

      Reply
    8. Alice X

      Dear Lina (not Lena, thank you) (first sought to post hours ago, but it didn’t show)

      1. Didn’t Trump run on MAGA, which (in my mind at least) means – stay out of other people’s business and focus on the US? If so, why did he get us involved in this?

      M(ake) A(merica) G(reat) A(gain) plays on many disaffected people who have seen their life conditions deteriorating over the last fifty years. Since the late seventies these conditions have not been relieved by either political party. Trump played on this in 2016, but he was and is not the relief to the basic drive that the rich take more, and everyone else gets less, and less.

      It’s a con. The Democrats have no answer since they’re in on the con.

      2. Why is it ok for Israel to have nuclear weapons but not Iran?

      JFK wanted nuclear inspections for Israel (the French gave them nuclear technology), RFK wanted AIPAC to register as a foreign agent. That is history.

      Trump is beholden to the Israel lobby (and his donors), as is our captured congress.

      That is as simple as I can make it. It doesn’t answer everything, which of course, is beyond my capacity.

      One answer, maybe the only one, is a nuclear free middle east.

      Reply
  10. The Rev Kev

    “Elon Musk’s stunning three-word reaction to SpaceX Starship exploding in fireball”

    He nearly nailed it with that ‘Just a scratch’ comment but came up short and should have gone with ‘Tis But A Scratch’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs (2:55 mins)

    But I’m sure that it will buff right out.

    Reply
  11. tegnost

    The dems are not leaderless, their leaders are people no one wants to follow, their message is one no one (except k st. wall st) wants to hear, and their agenda is one that a normal person would be embarrassed to elucidate (open borders and socialism for corporations)

    and re the gardeners, ice should have just waited around until el jefe showed up and arrested him instead.

    Reply
    1. jhallc

      I read that and my first thought was, too bad she didn’t have her “Come to Jesus” moment when she was campaign manager for Hillary.

      Reply
  12. The Rev Kev

    ‘U R B A N S E C R E T S 🤫
    @stiwari1510
    At first glance, many thought this was Gaz. But no, it’s inside Israel. Welcome to Haifa. Reality doesn’t need filters.’

    The only difference is that the people in those buildings had time to get out and go to bomb shelters and not have those building fall on top of them. Just realized. So where are the satellite images showing us the damage in Israel? They must exist. Has Israel leaned on the world media not to show them? What about countries like China and Russia that must be taking their own images?

    Reply
    1. cfraenkel

      The images exist, obviously. That they’re not available even when you go looking for them is one of the interesting outcomes of this latest round of crazy. It shows the reach of the manufacturing consent apparatus has been extended to cover all the new sources of imagery. Impressive, really. Keeping a lid on overhead sensors isn’t surprising, just unwelcome. But there’s a lot of cell phone cameras.

      Reply
      1. Balan Aroxdale

        It is not real. The footage is from Gaza.

        You can tell from the unpaved roads, lack of cars, lack of vegitation, the construction of the builds and their lack of decor. Also from the seafront view. Haifa is on a hill.

        This is a recent view from Haifa.
        https://x.com/mog_russEN/status/1936678309108351169#m. It is very much resembles a wealthy mediterrainian city, which it is.

        Reply
  13. Robert W Hahl

    Re: The empty mall in Cincinnati.

    I assume that this condition was not caused just by online shopping and big box stores like Wal Mart, Target, and Home Depot. Is Cincinnati depopulated now, like Detroit? Or does it mean that people just don’t have any disposable income anymore?

    Reply
      1. herman_sampson

        Deindustrialization, leading to more low wage jobs and the higher wage labor being off-shored and white flight and the GFC killed the malls in Indianapolis. The PMC mall that is technically in Indy but easily reached from a PMC suburb seems to be doing well. Any biggish box retailers moved to suburbs, surrounded by new plastic pop-up housing. Home Depot and Lowes are now probably the biggest retailers physically in the city.
        As usual, the “failure to plan is planning for failure” and state and local government failed.

        Reply
      2. griffen

        Abandoned malls and abandoned strip shopping centers…..for $1,000 please Mr. Jennings. What happened to Montgomery Ward then it happened to Sears and to KMart, among many other less than national brands, and today based on recent CNBC reporting even the Kohls shopping and retail centers are just not performing too well.

        I worked as a teenager for one of those lesser known regional NC based retail department stores. The Roses brand of stores got clobbered when Walmart arrived in the eastern NC region, and by 1995 the chain was firmly into bankruptcy.

        Nice work by the Walton family ( among others of course ), and then came the Amazon approach to double down on skirting and flat shirking on tax rules. Rules ? \sarc

        Reply
      3. Clwydshire

        The rest of the video, after the guy who made the Northgate Mall video signs off, but continues the tour, has the most amazing, space distorted and hollow, dirge like mall music that I’ve heard. Something for the end of America.

        Reply
    1. NotThePilot

      I actually know the Cinci area pretty well (and Northgate lol), and it’s definitely not a rust-belt town. It’s pretty robust & diverse economically (GE Aviation, P&G, 5/3rd Bank, Kroger, lots of regional branches for other companies, and a surprising amount of niche manufacturers). I think it’s relatively stable population-wise too

      In a lot of ways, I’ve started thinking of Cincinnati as St. Louis’ slightly more Northern twin. Also, like St. Louis, I think Cincinnati’s big problem is there’s a borderline hatred between the city & the suburbs (with a racial undercurrent). That scales up to the Repub state gov actively sabotaging the city in a lot of ways (though the Dem city gov does some really stupid & corrupt stuff too) Or as a lot of people put it, “Cincinnati’s actually pretty great; the problem is it’s in Ohio”

      TL/DR: Cincinnati is a shining example of how suburbia, as a lifestyle & an ideology, is killing America as a civilization

      Reply
      1. Acacia

        On my first visit to corporate HQ in Cincinnati, I was in a taxi from the airport in Kentucky, and tried to chat up the driver (angry looking white guy) about the city. I mentioned it was my first visit, and asked where he would suggest sightseeing, e.g., any good neighborhoods for restaurants. It was the usual attempt at amiable chat with a taxi driver.

        In response, he glowered at me in the rear view mirror, and only said: “just stay where it’s lit up.”

        Reply
  14. Terry Flynn

    re British fly-tipping. This is definitely getting worse. It is important, though, to recognise the underlying cause – neoliberalism. British local councils have, over a 40 year period, become increasingly reliant on the “central government funding” part of their balance sheet and successive governments (accelerated under the Tories/Lib Dem from 2010) cut funding in real terms massively.

    The result has been that local governments can only exercise control over their income via business rates (becoming less due to massive insolvencies and more and more commercial premises being things like charity shops that get exemptions/reductions) and council tax (the main tax on local people). Result? All the “load” falls on households and they understandably get mad at councils. Ironically I’m guessing that the Tories first thought of this starving of local councils of govt money as a way to punish Labour councils but now we’ve got Tory “shire” councils going bankrupt too, enabling Reform.

    Finally, an anecdote. Our house is one of 5 (the maximum permitted under local bye-laws) that sits on a main road but due to the difficulties of access, is accessed via a “track” parallel to that road and you turn into from a side road. Unfortunately we have a “recessed part” from the footpath which is technically our responsibility but which in Autumn last year, when the leaves dropped, encouraged loads of drunks walking home to drop empties into the leaves. One day I cleared it: 17 half bottles of cheapest brand vodka, loads of those cans of revolting energy/vodka drinks etc. When it was cleared the problem stopped as dropping stuff would be more obvious but on my walk earlier I saw cans dropped in the last week *Sigh*. There’s a bloody BIN on other side of main road. OK you’re not meant to put recyclables into it but the council will take it all and it’s less disreputable than current practices.

    Reply
    1. Terry Flynn

      Those packs unfortunately immediately remind me of ST: Voyager and I shudder.

      A show that SHOULD have been serialised (like ST writer Ron D Moore wanted) but, like the proverbial square peg shoved into the round hole, was made episodic, to ensure UPN could survive via any new viewers being able to “dip in” at any point.

      Ron D Moore has been alleged to say that this critical flaw in Voyager was one of the reasons he was determined to do the re-booted BSG and do it properly, showing the gradual deterioration in a serialised format. If so, good on him! /randomscifi

      Reply
  15. Socal Rhino

    With MAGA republicans dividing into the TACOs and a remnant that oppose foreign wars of choice (including a few that still think the constitution requires congress to initiate war) I think Vance should start thinking about resuming his hedge fund work.

    Reply
  16. ACPAL

    Censorship, a brief observation:

    I usually watch the commentary videos on YouTube on my TV (via ROKU) about the US excursions into war and mayhem. This morning there were noticeably fewer compared to days past. On my computer (YouTube direct) I found the usual suspects talking away. It looks to me like ROKU has begun censoring what it makes available.

    Reply
  17. griffen

    Guillotine watch entry, above tweeted image or video on the super special school for the super special elite and wealthy. Hey why not drop a cool $ US 1 million on little junior to get the best of education that’s available to the select few? He will or she will run the country or this mega company once Daddy is out of the picture, or increasingly I would include the Mommy executive too. That is unless they are actually 3rd, 4th or so generation so dynastic wealth is at disposal once the proper age requirement is achieved.

    Vomit inducing may commence shortly…Or instead is it preposterous that say, “Billy Madison” wasn’t so far out maybe as a predictor of future generation behavior? \sarc

    Reply
  18. Ben Panga

    NYT live blog : This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows damage at the Fordo enrichment facility in Iran after U.S. strikes, on Sunday.

    BP: at this rate they will need thousands of bunker busters (or they would if this was more than Trumpy theater).

    Reply
    1. ChrisFromGA

      Largely useless – satellite images show only surface damage. There is no way to determine the situation hundreds of meters below the surface without a direct inspection, and the entrance may be blocked, requiring weeks to clear with earth-moving or tunneling equipment.

      Reply
  19. Bsn

    Regarding the “Gardeners reportedly taken by ICE agents while mowing outside California home” article this is what I think. Americans have lost any sense of principles. The principle that it’s not OK to force someone to work for very low wages (next step, slavery) is tossed out the window so we can all maintain cheap food, nice 401K plans and pretty front yards. If your principles are “I will not treat anyone unfairly, AKA give them a decent fee for services” then you should not approve of cheap, usurious labor being the norm. People should be paid a living wage regardless of their task. Americans have to realize there is no “cheap foreign labor lunch” and prepare to pay a decent wage to American workers as opposed to undocumented, human trafficked labor. The ICE raids are heavy handed but the principle is spot on. Leave jobs to Americans and get ready to pay more for it.

    Reply
    1. Laughingsong

      This assumes that the person hiring the gardener paid them poorly. Maybe but I do know people that pay well and treat them well. Without knowing for sure, it’s best not to assume.

      Reply
      1. kareninca

        It would have to be an extremely high wage to make up for the person having no Social Security, no disability insurance, no health insurance; they would have to purchase those things (or the equivalent) on their own with the higher wage. I have real doubts that the wages they are paid are that high. And what happens when they get injured on the job? Also, the employer may well think they are paying a generous wage but in fact they aren’t at all (I’ve seen that).

        Reply
    2. rowlf

      Isn’t the US based on slave labor, coolies, and undocumented workers that have no labor rights or representation?

      Reply
  20. Wukchumni

    Re: Japanese log riding

    The most heavily logged Giant Sequoia Grove was the Converse Basin, and they utilized a log flume to transport the Brobdingnagians down to the Central Valley, and riding a log down was the height of adventure, circa 1902.

    Reply
    1. Michael Fiorillo

      Yesler Way in Seattle had wooden skids for sending logs down to the mills and port; legend has it’s where the term “hit the skids” originated…

      Reply
      1. Wukchumni

        I read of a 12 year old that spent the summer of 1908 @ Atwell Mill in Mineral King making pencils out of Giant Sequoias for export to France.

        The wood shattered internally upon impact after falling, and the most common use was grape stakes and fence posts.

        Reply
  21. Ken Murphy

    I am so thoroughly conflicted on so many things right now. I might be called deluded by some, but I am becoming increasingly entrenched in the idea that basically the entirety of our leadership is beholden to actors “unknown” to the populace at large. By controlling the corridors of power, these actors ensure that only those beholden to them are granted access to power through our current political process. If a politician can’t be controlled by these interests, they are denied.
    The data that points me in this direction are the actions themselves undertaken by our government. The best example I can think of to explain what I mean is back when Obama was a Senator but with visions of the Presidency. He was initially against the FISA bill, which position pleased this libertarian. Then, all of a sudden, he rolled over and threw his vote into the ring in support of it. That’s when I knew that he’d been taken into a back room and enlightened as to what exactly he was going to do and whom exactly he would be taking instruction from if he was going to be President (and “they” -could- make it happen). You can always tell when they get that talk because their hair starts turning quickly gray thereafter. Q.v. Bush the Younger.
    In my delusion, what I would like to see is our political class facing up to their “sins” whose hiding from shame makes them vulnerable to control by others. I think they’d find that the American electorate can be quick to forgive many transgressions if that openness means the politician has the weight of blackmail lifted from their shoulders and their conscience.
    Dropped acid in college? So what. Had an affair? Not the first by any stretch of the imagination. Diddled a kid? Okay, yeah, that’s a problem, and if the politician is selling out U.S. interests in an attempt to cover it up, then that is a problem we don’t need in our government. Bounced some checks and got thrown in the lockup in your youth? Yeah, yutes can make some really boneheaded decisions.
    I guess I’m just tired of my country being led around like a bull by the nose ring by folks that aren’t answerable to my vote. Why is it that as I get older I become increasingly enamored by the Monroe Doctrine?

    Reply
    1. GramSci

      It’s more likely presidential aspirants are politely advised their loved ones could suffer terrible deaths (“six ways to Sunday” — Sen Chuckles Schumer) if the aspirant isn’t obedient.

      BTW, I believe Mr Monroe was enamoured of the Monroe Doctrine because it asserted his right to import as many N-word slaves as his heart desired. I can’t explain why a twenty-first century human would be enamoured of it.

      Reply
      1. Ken Murphy

        The concept of “you tend to your garden and we’ll tend to ours” is certainly not unappealing. Involvement in overseas adventures hasn’t generally worked well for us in the bigger picture. I’m convinced we brought back a lot of bad knowledge back from WW II, and it has been festering and postulating like a cancerous gangrene in our body politic.
        Not sure how you got to N-word slavery from my comment, but I’ll see if I can figure out a better shorthand for the conveyance of Voltaire’s maxim as considered at the national scale. If you’re trying to subtly imply that I am in favor of slavery you must have missed my self-applied use of the word libertarian. Slavery is pretty inconsistent with libertarian philosophy, but then again so is unnecessary war.

        Reply
        1. Lefty Godot

          Slavery and genocide of native Americans are supposed to render all possible good aspects of the American Revolution and ideals inspiring or inspired by it null and void. In the same way we can’t read “problematic” authors now, no matter their excellence in prose or eloquence in disquisition. We can’t take anything good from the past if there is anything bad mixed in with it. That makes it all bad. Only we in the present can bring about the perfect future society, after thinking right thoughts and beating our breast and flagellating ourselves for our evil ancestors’ sins enough times. Or so I’m told.

          Reply
  22. Wisker

    Iran is deep into a game of provocation and deterrence (aka risk-reward). I assume Iran wants to maximally deter Israel while minimally provoking significant war escalation from the US or Israel.

    Provocation assumes that it’s not too risky to reply in kind to what Israel has already done. A bit more complicated when it comes to provoking the US…

    Something along these lines:

    Close Hormuz
    -Deterrent: Low
    -Provocation: Medium

    Assassinate Israeli leaders
    -Deterrent: High
    -Provocation: Low
    -Caveat: probably no intel or ability to do this

    Attack Israeli Power Infrastructure
    -Deterrent: High
    -Provocation: Medium

    Attack US Bases
    -Deterrent: Low
    -Provocation: High (specifically to the US)

    Attack Dimona
    -Deterrent: Low?
    -Provocation: Medium?

    Keep up current attacks:
    -Deterrent: Low
    -Provocation: Low

    Reply
    1. NotThePilot

      I hear a lot of people saying this, but I think people are still reinterpreting everything around the belief that 1. Iran is scared of where this is going and 2. the US/West/Israel is in control.

      I obviously don’t know for sure, but I suspect Iran isn’t wasting its time trying to calibrate the US response. The Iranians are maybe the last people on earth that would make plans that depend on an opponent reacting how they prefer.

      Only one other thing I’ll mention again: however much they accomplish with their missiles, I don’t think Iran views them as decisive. They’re for deterrence, escalation management, & shaping the battle space. I don’t remember who mentioned it (Armchair Warlord?) but I agree 100% that Khamenei elevating Artesh (conventional army) officers is a sign of what’s to come

      Reply
  23. Tom Stone

    I was certain that Tulsi Gabbard had called Trump the “Peace” president earlier this year.
    After listening to that clip several times it became clear that her accent fooled me, she was calling him the “Piss” president.

    Reply
    1. Samuel Conner

      I was struck by the language, in DJT’s brief “victory” address, of Iran as “bully of the Middle East.” While I have little sympathy for the Iranian government, this struck me as “a bit rich.”

      The leader of the would-be global hegemon and patron of the would-be regional hegemon criticizes the most powerful nation of that region, and the natural regional hegemon, for “bullying”.

      It has the qualities of an article in The Onion.

      Reply
  24. AG

    re: Iran / West

    Craig Murray new post:

    You Cannot Negotiate with the Zionist West
    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2025/06/you-cannot-negotiate-with-the-zionist-west/

    ending with putting forward the idea to protest on Cyprus:

    “(…)
    I therefore put forward this idea with no apology that I am not the man to organise it. The British sovereign base at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus is fundamental to the logistics of the attacks on Iran for the UK, USA and Israel. A gathering of thousands of activists in Cyprus to close down the base appears to me the most viable and useful option to cause real problems for the neoliberal genociders.

    The Akrotiri base has a very large perimeter and far too few RAF Regiment troops to guard it against thousands of determined activists. The government of Cyprus is unlikely to defend the British sovereign base from peaceful activists. Cyprus is a very easy place to reach.

    As our panicked rulers seek to ban Palestine Action as a “terrorist group” – despite the fact they have never injured anybody – it seems to me essential we continue and indeed increase the resistance. The very notion of “terrorism” has been debased to include journalism and peaceful protest. We must not be terrified into allowing fascism to prevail.
    (…)”

    Reply
  25. Sydney

    Many esteemed and great thanks to Yves for this source of quality information and a curated, refined and cohesive commentariat.
    I will support you financially as soon as I’m able, as regularly as I am able.

    I’ll provide context for the comment to follow by touching on the political scene in Australia.
    Recently, the Opposition, who are the equivalent of the Tories here, got their asses handed to them in the Federal Election. Most devestating loss in history. They responded by replacing their leader with their first female and turning the party harder to a conservative, fundie Right than it was before.

    This Opposition party came out on Sunday in support of the US bombing off Iran. No surprise really.

    What is really hard to swallow is the incumbent Labor party taking a strong stand the following day in favour of the US bombing of Iran.
    Both the Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and the PM Albanese, independently made statements saying ‘ the whole world is against Iran having nuclear weapons, so we support the US action, but we call for diplomacy and peace..etc’

    I am so overwhelming disgusted by this, my emotional response is unlike any I’ve ever had to politicians before.
    I am so profoundly offended by this
    The government of my country exists for me – no longer. There is no government for me to support or acknowledge. I turn my back.

    Reply
    1. Yves Smith

      Thanks for this. I was in Sydney from 2002 to 2004, and participated in the protest against the expected US attack on Iraq. 250,000 came, when Sydney then had a total metropolitan population of ~4 million. Opposition to the war was 94%, a level of unanimity that simply does not exist in public polls. Nevertheless, the Government (Liberals under John Howard) dutifully joined the infamous Coalition of the Willing. So Australia has been here before.

      I felt gut punched too even though I am not Australian.

      Reply
  26. Expat2uruguay

    Focus on Africa: In Kenya protests against police brutality continue to escalate towards anarchy ahead of the GENZ one-year anniversary protest on June 25th.

    On June 17 the Nairobi Central Business District erupted into chaos as protesters demanding justice for Albert Ojwang faced stick-wielding goons on motorbikes who were promised payment to break up the peaceful protests. Widely shared videos show these groups praising President William Ruto and clashing with demonstrators, beating bystanders, and robbing non-protesters. Shockingly, police vehicles were seen alongside the goons, raising questions about state involvement. And as if that wasn’t enough, at the same rally an AP photographer caught the moment when a policemen shot a face-mask vendor in the head at point blank range.
    https://youtu.be/SCBJKULuu20

    Same story in print:
    https://www.dw.com/en/what-you-need-to-know-about-kenyan-protesters-shooting/a-72959858

    As background, the peaceful protesters were in Nairobi last week to protest the torture and murder in police custody of Albert Ojwang, a teacher and blogger who criticized a police chief on social media. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79epzj703eo

    As a side note, protests in Africa don’t usually get a lot of mainstream media coverage, but Kenya has become a special case for another reason:
    “US Dumps Puppet President Ruto for Allying with China. Now He’s Paying the Price”
    https://youtu.be/XV-ARp3TQIM

    To bring things back to the present, tomorrow will be the one-year anniversary of the 2025 GENZ protests wherein Parliament was stormed and 60 protesters were killed. Despite that violence, last year’s incident was described by The Nonviolence Project thusly: “Young people were able to mobilize thousands to the streets, reach over 750 million via social media, and force President Ruto into withdrawing the bill in just a short period of time in June 2024.” https://thenonviolenceproject.wisc.edu/2025/04/29/kenya-finance-bill-protests/

    saludos

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