US Explores Its Options for Destabilization in Georgia 

While the U.S. and friends may have successfully weaseled their way into the Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan sandwich along Iran’s northern border, there’s still one hold out in the Caucasus in the crosshairs. And Georgia is on their mind.

The U.S. Helsinki Commission held a hearing last week titled “From Partner to Problem: Georgia’s Anti-American Turn.”

Witnesses included spooky Georgian “President” and 2025 Kissinger Fellow at the D.C.-based McCain Institute Salome Zourabichvili. She tried to lead a color revolution following elections in Georgia last year, and despite being removed from office herself, continues to insist she is still the legitimate president.

Meanwhile the Georgian Dream party continues to rule the country. It was previously an ally of the US-led West, but made the mistake of pursuing friendly ties with its big neighbor to the north, as well as seeking Chinese investment. And to take this sovereign path, it passed a foreign agents law in the spring of last year. That law requires NGOs and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as such with the government. The EU recently gave the Georgian government until August 31 to roll back its rules on NGOs or lose visa-free travel privileges. Georgian Dream responded by  freezing the bank accounts of prominent, pro-EU NGOs. While the government might remain unphased by the threats, they continue to have an effect on the streets:

“Protect visa free” – large crowds marched today in Tbilisi as Georgian Dream’s anti-democratic policies threaten losing visa-free travel that Georgians have enjoyed with EU since 2017. Day 290 of #GeorgiaProtests
🎥 Nini Gabritchidze/Civil.ge pic.twitter.com/beZXcQXso3

— Civil.ge (@CivilGe) September 13, 2025

And so Georgian Dream, despite its desire for strong ties with both East and West, finds itself atop the enemy list in Washington, which operates under the with-us-or-against-us credo. The Helsinki Commission broadcast that message loud and clear with just its stated reason for holding its most recent hearings:

Georgia was once a core U.S. partner and a beacon of freedom in the Caucasus. Today, the ruling Georgian Dream party is dragging the country back into Russia’s orbit and deepening their relationship with China and other U.S. adversaries. Over the past few years, Georgian Dream has crippled Georgia’s institutions and further undermined Georgia’s sovereignty by courting Chinese investment while blocking U.S. businesses from Middle Corridor trade and access to Central Asian rare earth minerals…This hearing will examine the global consequences of Georgia’s slide into authoritarianism. Witnesses will also explore U.S. policy options.

It’s fairly obvious by this point, but still needs pointing out that freedom is not, in reality, defined by obedience to Washington, nor is authoritarianism with disobedience. The truth is Georgian Dream won elections that the West refuses to accept, and the party, while largely neoliberal and supportive of Zionism, is trying to regain some semblance of sovereignty by reining in the western NGOs, which have played a huge role in Georgia since the 1990s, often filling the space that state capacity would, and allowing them to effectively govern the country.  It also doesn’t want to get sucked into another conflict with Russia as it claims NATO has pressured Georgia to open a “second front.”

But back to the Helsinki hearings and their key mission: what are the US policy options?

According to the witnesses on hand, and stop me if you’ve heard this one before, the answer is sanctions.

Specifically, they want the US to pass the Mobilizing and Enhancing Georgia’s Options for Building Accountability, Resilience, and Independence (MEGOBARI) Act, which would require US President Donald Trump to expand sanctions against “certain foreign persons, including Georgian government officials, who are undermining Georgia’s security or stability.”

Put another way:

This bill is a declaration of war against Georgia. https://t.co/7WeT6OkObd

— Sopo Japaridze (@sopjap) May 25, 2024

The MEGOBARI Act passed the House in a 349-42 vote in May, but it is being held up in the Senate due to steadfast opposition from Markwayne Mullin from Oklahoma. He used to be a vocal critic of the government of Georgia over the treatment of Frontera Resources, a Texas-based oil and gas company, in the country.

But as Frontera’s relationship with Tbilisi has improved, Mullin’s criticism has softened, and he has successfully worked to remove the MEGOBARI Act from larger legislative packages. Here’s Mullin talking to The Hill:

“It doesn’t make any difference what company it is…If we’re going to have investments there, they need to make sure their investments, meaning U.S. investments, that investments need to be protected and have confidence that they’re going to be able to see the project through without being threatened to be taken over.”

While Mullin might only be opposed due to his coziness with Frontera, he has a point, as it’s unclear what sanctions would accomplish aside from pushing Georgia closer to Russia and China. Indeed, as Western investment in the country has declined, China has already quickly filled the void.

The one case to be made for sanctions—from a Washington neocon perspective—is that they would increase divisions in the country and potentially create openings for further destabilization. The country is already seeing street violence between Georgian Dream supporters and anti-government protestors, as rolling protests have taken place for the better part of a year now, and there are allegations of much more serious plans in the works.

A Job for Ukraine, Inc.?

Not discussed at the Helsinki hearing were more “discreet” options. These clandestine activities  are likely already underway and involve Washington’s favorite new terrorism training and export hub in Ukraine. Already helping US-aligned takfiri destabilization forces in Syria, Africa, and elsewhere. And there are increasing signs of it popping up in Georgia.

Last year, Tbilisi began to crack down on returning members of the Georgian Legion — a group of anti-Russian mercenaries fighting in Ukraine — who it says are plotting attempts to overthrow the government in Tbilisi.

But if recent details from an investigation into explosives brought into Georgia are any indication, the government has its work cut out for it. The Georgian state security services recently arrested two Ukrainian citizens on charges of illegally acquiring, storing, and transporting explosives. During inspection, authorities discovered 2.4 kilograms of Hexogen hidden in specially concealed compartments of the vehicle. According to investigators, the drivers were given the explosive material on Ukrainian territory by employees of the Security Service of Ukraine, and the final destination for the explosives was Tbilisi, and speculation is that something could be planned to coincide with Georgia’s October 4 local elections as the approaching date has reinvigorated protests that have have become part of daily life.

Why Does Georgia Matter?

Tina Khidasheli, Georgia’s former defence minister (2015–16) provided a useful explanation at the Helsinki hearings:

Georgia matters to the US, to Europe and to the international community for three main reasons:

• its geographic position

• its strategic connectivity

• its example of democracy

If we discount the third point for obvious reasons, we have the first two. Here’s more from Khidasheli:

Georgia lies at the heart of the Middle Corridor – the modern Silk Road linking East and West, North and South, bypassing Russia and Iran.

We are a small country, but our greatest advantage is that we are a gateway and a bridge, connecting the markets of Central Asia and Europe through pipelines, railways and ports.

This is not just a trade route – it is a corridor of freedom. It is a path along which goods, energy, data and people can move without the political pressure or blackmail so typical of the northern route or Iranian influence from the south.

The Middle Corridor is not an alternative – it is the only viable path. It is both practical and politically sound for the United States and its allies…Without Georgia, the Freedom Corridor cannot exist – the route will be closed, and the door will open to Russia, Iran and China.”

Khidasheli might be partially right. It depends on what one thinks the true US intentions are in the Caucasus. Are they really there to build and control logistical corridors? Are they really going to somehow magically displace Russia, China, and Iran as security and economic powers in the region?

Khidasheli’s argument is a far cry from what other opposition members in Georgia were saying after the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) was announced last month. That argument was that Georgia would become irrelevant to the West now that it was in on a corridor linking Azerbaijan and Turkey—and potentially beyond— through Armenia. If only that were the case.

While Washington might have increased its presence in the Southern Caucasus and fanned the regional flames with TRIPP, it doesn’t change the geographic or economic reality.

Russia remains dominant economically and militarily in the region. Iran isn’t far behind. China’s growing dominance in global supply chains makes it indispensable. And it is actually interested in building things like the Black Sea port in Georgia that the West is so up in arms about.

Georgia’s trade with Russia, China, and regional partners dwarfs the economic ties with the EU and US. Here are imports by country:

And exports:

 

At the same time, the war in Ukraine makes Georgia a more attractive transit country. China is  upping its investment in Georgia as part of its effort to increase trade route options should others fall victim to destabilization campaigns.

I’m not sure even those in Washington are so delusional to believe they can offer a more attractive alternative for the populations of the Caucasus. They’ve already lost that battle, and there’s no reason to expect the dynamics to change, but what the US can offer instead is destabilization and destruction. Set fires in your rivals’ back yards and hope the house catches too.

As we wrote recently, TRIPP is a step in that direction in the South Caucasus, but it’s less consequential with a sovereign and stable Georgia as TRIPP could simply be avoided. So what we’re seeing in Georgia is that work continues in the northern part of the region as well.