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Links 12/21/2025

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James Webb Space Telescope confirms 1st ‘runaway’ supermassive black hole rocketing through home galaxy at 2.2 million mph: ‘It boggles the mind!’ Space.com

Targeting bacterial ‘decision-making’ could help outsmart antibiotic resistance Phys.org

From Roombas to e-bikes, why are hardware startups going bankrupt?  TechCrunch

Good morning, sunshine. The seemingly unstoppable growth of renewable energy is Science’s 2025 Breakthrough of the Year Science.org

COVID-19/Pandemics

Calling the Shots: Tracking RFK Jr. on Vaccines U.S. News

The global diabetes pandemic: Why cases could reach 900 million by 2050 and what we must do now The Times of India

Climate/Environment

‘Borrowed time’: crop pests and food losses supercharged by climate crisis The Guardian

After Ruining a Treasured Water Resource, Iran Is Drying Up Yale Environment 360

South of the Border

Trump’s blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil raises new questions about legality PBS

Explainer: Venezuela’s billions in distressed debt: who is in line to collect Reuters

Chile’s far-right president taps into support for Pinochet that never went away The Guardian

Big Pharma Is Making Mexico Sick. Medicine and Supply Shortages Are Rampant. Scheerpost

China?


China housing market crisis deepens as house prices fall sharply Andolu Agency

China’s Population Crisis—Xi’s Greatest Test in 2026 Newsweek

Report warns China drug innovation fast gaining ground on US biotech FirstWord Pharma

China’s national planning process is unique: former UN under-secretary-general Erik Solheim at Global Times Annual Conference Global Times

India

India will surpass Germany to become third-largest economy by 2027: Scindia The Economic Times

The cost of India’s anti-conversion laws The Hill

India’s telecom sector surges in 2025! 5G rollout reaches 85% of population The Times of India

Africa

Poor rainy seasons deepen drought risks across Horn of Africa: UN agency Andolu Agency

Africa in Washington’s Lens: Myopia, Transactionalism & Aggressive Disinterest Stimson.org

Africa’s industrial future depends on ties that work CGTN

European Disunion

Finnish finance minister calls EU’s loan deal for Ukraine ‘major failure’ Andolu Agency

Stellantis CEO says investments at risk in Europe after EU auto package Global Banking and Finance

EU Council backs digital euro with both online and offline functionality Reuters

Old Blighty

Labour warned over future of UK’s ‘crown jewels’ as Rolls-Royce threatens to build engines abroad Daily Mail

Christmas ads put on a diet as UK ban on TV junk food advertising bites The Guardian

Israel v. Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iran


MSF urges Israel to let critical aid into Gaza as children freeze to death Al Jazeera

Israel Is Preparing for a Permanent Presence in Gaza, Satellite Images Reveal Drop Site News

In 2025, The Israeli Army Was The ‘Worst Enemy Of Journalists’ Scheerpost

Israel’s Deliberate Destruction of Palestinian Academia Jacobin

New Not-So-Cold War

Ukraine strikes Russian shadow fleet tanker in Mediterranean sea France 24

Ukraine Receives Last of 80 Promised Abrams Tanks: How Many Are Left and How Well Can They Be Sustained? Military Watch

The bleakest winter: Ukrainians face exhaustion and uncertainty as Trump demands concessions The Guardian

Russia strikes Ukrainian port with ballistic missiles, killing 8 and wounding dozens CBS News

Big Brother Is Watching You Watch

Meta, California agree to settle Facebook privacy lawsuit The San Francisco Standard

Flock Safety cameras helped crack the MIT and Brown case — but at what cost to privacy? Boston.com

Imperial Collapse Watch

Utah’s Trumpian homeless ‘campus’ — lifeline or detention camp? The Times

Half of wealthy Americans have lied about a Venmo glitch to avoid paying the bill. Why even 6-figure earners are ‘stretched, struggling or drowning’ Moneywise

Trump 2.0

Trump Drags Out His Epstein Files Cover-Up Zeteo

Trump’s ‘A+++++’ economy collides with reality in a Pennsylvania city critical to the midterms AP

‘An Absolute Joke’: Trump DOJ Partially Releases Epstein Files, Many Heavily Redacted Scheerpost

Is the Trump administration just a reality TV show? Vox

Musk Matters

Elon Musk’s net worth hits staggering $648B, making him more than twice as wealthy as runner-up NY Post

Elon Musk makes another Mars prediction: Mars will be … The Times of India

SpaceX Is Buying Up an Unfathomable Number of Cybertrucks Futurism

Democrat Death Watch

DNC under fire for hiding autopsy report on 2024 election Axios

Democratic despotism: The left moves from censored to compelled speech The Hill

Immigration

Trump Seizes on Brown, MIT Shooting to Suspend More Legal Immigration Mother Jones

Supreme Court rebuffs Trump in immigration judges’ free-speech case

Our No Longer Free Press

Tucker Carlson and the freedom of speech The Mining Journal

SecureDrop: Looking back at 2025 Freedom of the Press Foundation

Mr. Market Is Moody

‘Nothing Stops This Train’—2026 Fed U.S. Dollar ‘Destruction’ Warning, Predicted To Trigger $4 Trillion Bitcoin Price Boom Forbes

High-net-worth investors are pulling out of the stock market. Here’s where they’re funneling their cash instead Moneywise

Next Fed chair faces ‘no-win’ test as White House pushes rate cuts The Street

AI

New York Governor Kathy Hochul signs RAISE Act to regulate AI safety TechCrunch

AI-made listing pics may mislead American home buyers, regulators caution Cryptopolitan

They graduated from Stanford. Due to AI, they can’t find a job Los Angeles Times

Six (or seven) predictions for AI 2026 from a Generative AI realist Gary Marcus substack

Neuralink’s Blindsight AI Breakthrough: Restoring Vision for the Blind with BrainTech Implants Blockchain News

The Bezzle

Scammers in China Are Using AI-Generated Images to Get Refunds Wired

Scammers target pet owners, posing as officials from sheriff’s department NBC Los Angeles

Guillotine Watch

 

Antidote du jour (via)

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here

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65 comments

  2. The Rev Kev

    “Finnish finance minister calls EU’s loan deal for Ukraine ‘major failure'”

    Gee, she is pretty sour about the EU only giving Zelensky €90 billion instead of those frozen/stolen Russian assets. I got an idea. Maybe Finnish Finance Minister Riikka Purra could tell the EU that Finland will step up to the plate and give Zelensky €120 billion from their coffers to make up the €210 billion that he was expecting. Hope that President Alexander Stubb is not reading this as he would regard that as a great idea.

    Reply ↓
    1. chris

      I feel like there are some matters of the conflict with respect to engineering or logistics I can speak to and understand. But the continued push to throw more and more money into the corrupt pit that is Ukraine baffles me.

      I can’t even ask NC’s favorite question, “cui bono?” I have no idea who could possibly benefit from this death and destruction. Especially since we have now proven our NATO weapons platforms don’t work and showing more people how badly they don’t work as the conflict continues can’t be good for business. Also, it appears from polling results that EUcrats aligned with the Ukraine project continue to do poorly and are now facing a resurgent right wing in their countries. So why is everyone in Europe so damn committed to death by 10000 cuts here?

      There is no plan for winning in the sense that the West have defined victory. Russia has been very clear that they’re not going to freeze the conflict or grant a ceasefire so Ukraine can lick its wounds and rre-arm. So what are Finland, Germany, France, the UK, etc. doing here? Are there any analysts who seem to have a clue?

      Reply ↓
      1. Judith

        Thomas Fazi, on his Substack, makes an interesting argument:

        “ I intend to argue that the current NATO-Russia confrontation is simply the latest chapter in a century-long Western campaign to weaken, isolate and contain Russia. This antagonism long predates the Soviet Union and is rooted in both geopolitical and civilisational motives: Western powers have historically viewed Russia as too large, too independent and too culturally distinct to integrate into a Western-led order”

        https://www.thomasfazi.com/p/the-wests-century-long-war-against

        (Sorry if this has already been a link)

        Reply ↓
      2. JBird4049

        >>>So what are Finland, Germany, France, the UK, etc. doing here?

        Have you ever seen deer trapped in a car’s headlights? I think that see the oncoming wreck, but have no idea what to do except more of the same.

        Reply ↓
  3. Valiant Johnson

    Immigration/Police state
    Please see:
    https://jennbudd.substack.com/p/the-real-purpose-of-ice-raids
    This may be the reason that all of the border relief workers that I work with speak of seeing less BP and way more active military along the wall.
    People doing water drops are now regularly approached by bored military personnel wondering what’s going on.
    I have heard that BP agents who “go on safari” get significant bonus and Per Diem money.
    And since it is really boring patrolling out here, going off to tackle some guys in a Home Depot parking lot may look like fun

    Reply ↓
    1. JBird4049

      While President Trump and the people he works with probably believe that they can suppress voters using the same methods as the Southern elites did after they overthrew Reconstruction, using goon squads (and let’s be serious here, death squads as both the police and the KKK were by the elites and not only in the South) would likely go very badly for them. If nothing else, I am not sure that the local police and the national guard would acquiesce, nor would the locals themselves.

      The Border Patrol would probably win in the first election, but once people got over their suprise, and after the ruling party lost its Mandate of Heaven, the loss of acceptance, and therefore authority and power would be extreme.

      The United States is still a quasi democracy and the government depends on the people’s acceptance of at least semi fair elections; it has been this way since almost two centuries before there was an United States.

      It is more of a cultural reflex or instinct than conscious thought.

      Reply ↓
  4. The Rev Kev

    “India will surpass Germany to become third-largest economy by 2027: Scindia”

    I don’t mean to rain on India’s parade but it should be remembered that German is being rapidly deindustrialized as well as taking on colossal amounts of debt so it may not be so much a case of India rising here as Germany sinking. Here are the guys at The Duran talking about Merz and the German economy-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWCUgu_hzM4 (20:41 mins)

    Reply ↓
    1. Polar Socialist

      I think part of the German decline is because they are paying dearly to India as a middle-man for Russian energy. The final phase of the decolonization of Europe – the idea being that a colonial system consist of the colonized and the colonizers, not really dipping into the idea that EU has been a colony of/exploited by US (that’s another discussion).

      Reply ↓
      1. Norton

        Germany’s pains are largely self-inflicted.
        Their abrupt energy policy change some years ago resulted in loss of base load generating capacity. Most utility planners would call that stupid, inviting outages and soaring prices as alternatives were desperately sought.
        There are more orderly ways to transition over decent realistic intervals that don’t require such risks.
        Add in their so-called political class and that spelled trouble.

        Reply ↓
  5. Louis Fyne

    >>>>Americans have lied about a Venmo glitch to avoid paying the bill.

    Not saying that is neccessarily wrong….but all these “polling” stories, irrespective of “conclusion”, need to be taken with an **extreme** grain of salt unless conducted by a reputable pollster.

    There is a cottage industy of lazy market research and polling—-relying on paid, online respondents. (garbage in, garbage out)

    naturally since it’s paid, the respondent pool skews to self-identifying as wealthy—as few paid polls involving research the non-comfortable.

    see amy survey, especially touted by a non-authoritative or tabloid outlet (NY Post)….be skeptical!

    Reply ↓
  6. The Rev Kev

    “James Webb Space Telescope confirms 1st ‘runaway’ supermassive black hole rocketing through home galaxy at 2.2 million mph: ‘It boggles the mind!”

    Imagine a planet with an emerging sapient species. They go from discovering agricultural to being an industrial society in only 4,000 year. Eventually they put more and more resources into astronomy because one part of the sky looks weird. And eventually they work out that it is because a supermassive black hole is heading directly for them and there is not a damn thing to be done. What sort of effect would that have on an intelligent species? And for all we know, this could be happening right now.

    Reply ↓
    1. amfortas

      there was a story arc in Stargate Universe about just that…nd im too scatterbrained, atm…but i do recall a couple of Star Trek episodes and at least one Arthur C Clarke story regarding this scenario.

      Reply ↓
    2. Louis Fyne

      lol, prob. thinking of the Star Trek Voy episode where the Voyager is an anomaly in a time-accelerated planet….and Voyager causes a scientific explosion on said planet. (The Doctor also fathers a kid, random unexplored plot point)

      That episode is based on a short story….and in classic literary style, there is a debate of the Voyager story is an homage, or an outright rip-of

      And that is all I can remember without resorting to the internet.

      and IIRC, this type of plot point is almost commo enough to be labeled a sci-fi trope?

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        Know the episode that you mean as it was one of their finest in story telling. It was called “Blink of an Eye”-

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blink_of_an_Eye_(Star_Trek:_Voyager)

        I liked how in each era they were at the same place that starts off a hill with a shrine to the gods until it is eventually overlooking an advanced city. You guys might enjoy the following Netflix video which is kinda along the same lines-

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQGEUv6CCPM (3:46 mins)

        Reply ↓
    3. .Tom

      It really does boggle the mind. I got stuck with acute boggling twice just in the first sentence.

      First, this black hole is “10 million times larger than the sun”. I guess that means they estimate the diameter of its event horizon at about 10^7 x the diameter of the sun. That’s about 10^5 astronomucal units (AU), i.e. 100,000 times the distance of the Earth from the sun. For comparison, the orbit of Neptune is about 60 AU. This black hole is about the size of the Oort cloud is theorized to be.

      Second, “rocketing through space at a staggering 2.2 million miles per hour”. What does that mean? In first year physics at Edinburgh we got an introduction to Special Relativity class and since then I have never been comfortable with the notion of astronomical speed or velocity. I can deal with quantifying the relative movent of two things but I don’t understand the speed of one thing in space. Is space itself a thing we can measure the speed of something else against?

      And that speed they said, 1000 km/s. For comparison, the speed of light is only 300 times that.

      But yeah, whatever that means, if you think human violence is bad, or even measured against what some imagine god might do to punish us, the scale and power of this speedy SMBH boggles.

      Reply ↓
      1. Keith in Modesto

        “First, this black hole is “10 million times larger than the sun”. I guess that means they estimate the diameter of its event horizon at about 10^7 x the diameter of the sun.”

        OTOH, they could mean that the *mass* of that black hole is 10 million times the mass of our sun. Which I think is more likely, but I haven’t read the article.

        Reply ↓
        1. .Tom

          I considered that but then I think they should have used a word other than “larger”. However, assuming you’re right, the Schwarzschild radius for 10 million solar masses, according to Wolfram Alpha, is 295.3 10^8, only 42 times larger than the sun, or about 0.1974 AU, which fits inside the orbit of Mercury.

          *only*

          Reply ↓
      2. Yeti

        “its event horizon at about 10^7 x the diameter of the sun”
        The mass of this black hole is about 10 million times the sun not 10 million times larger.

        https://astronomyexplained.com/how-big-are-black-holes/#google_vignette

        “The supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy Messier 87 (M87) gained significant attention in 2019. In 2019, the Event Horizon Telescope took the first image of its shadow. With a mass estimated to be 6.5 billion times that of the Sun, this supermassive black hole has a size comparable to the solar system.”
        So comparing physical size of the sun to a black hole has to take in the difference in density.
        Think of a lead ball compared to a styrofoam ball.

        Reply ↓
  7. Geo

    Venezuela tanker: “But the vessel boarded on Saturday, called the Centuries, is not on a list of entities under U.S. sanctions that is publicly maintained by the Treasury Department. The people inside Venezuela’s oil industry said the cargo belongs to an established China-based oil trader with a history of taking Venezuelan crude oil to Chinese refineries.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/20/us/politics/us-coast-guard-venezuela-oil-tanker.html

    Pirating Chinese oil seems like something that could have some sort of international fallout but who knows anymore. There never seem to be any consequences for US actions internationally.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      You should read the Homeland Security tweet-

      ‘Homeland Security
      @DHSgov
      PREPARE TO BE BOARDED.
      This morning @USCG
      in coordination with the @DeptofWar
      executed a lightning strike operation to seize the Motor Tanker Centuries, which is suspected of carrying oil subject to U.S. sanctions.
      The iron fist of America’s joint military and federal law enforcement rules the waves.’

      https://xcancel.com/DHSgov/status/2002493812976095249

      Arrgghhhh, me maties. Good thing that they did not drag China into all this as they won’t sit down and take it. Oh wait…

      Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        It’s all so very Ragnar DanneskjĂśld, this piracy on the high seize…

        Does everything have to follow the plot in
        Atlas Shrugged        ?

        Reply ↓
      2. Geo

        Reads like some teen bragging about his videogame wins. Surprised they didn’t spell it “Rulz the waves”.

        Also, I’m no history expert but wasn’t “iron fist” what Stalinist Russia was labelled?

        Reply ↓
      3. mrsyk

        Say China (or Russia), sinks a third of the u.s. navy in one fell swoop. I’m wondering if Americans would “rally around the flag” or condemn the current administration for negligence.

        Reply ↓
        1. Kilgore Trout

          In that event, to hide our shame and embarrassment at having been defeated by the commie Chinese horde of lesser humans, we’d resort to our own “Samson option”. Because if no one is around to write about a defeat, then it didn’t happen.

          Reply ↓
        2. Polar Socialist

          I’d expect Russia and China to arrange a “freedom of navigation” exercise in Caribbean Sea in the very near future. And I doubt it will escalate beyond that.

          Reply ↓
      4. RookieEMT

        “The iron fist of America’s joint military and federal law enforcement rules the waves.”

        The messages continue to shock and scare me despite preceding insanity.

        Reply ↓
    2. Polar Socialist

      There never seem to be any consequences for US actions internationally.

      Well, not necessarily immediate consequences, but if we entertain the Mahanian idea of the USA being a Sea Power (as in dependent of secure sea lines), deteriorating the the trade security in the proximity of the North American continent may have certain long term repercussions.

      If naval conflicts replace the “Pax Americana” in places the Multipolar Stability (between agreement capable nations) can’t reach, US may learn about autarky at an accelerated pace.

      Reply ↓
    3. Glen

      There never seem to be any immediate consequences for US actions internationally.

      Fixed it for ya!

      I would say BRICS and the rise of a multipolar world is a consequence of America’s actions. A world responding to decades of senseless wars.

      The more immediate problem is the neocons are very likely to get the war they so desperately desire despite the fact that the neocon wars America has conducted over the last couple of decades have done a huge number on the US military. Sometimes I cannot help but feel that the whole neocon bit for the last forty years has been a plot to wreck America, mostly because it seems to have worked.

      Reply ↓
  8. Wukchumni

    High-net-worth investors are pulling out of the stock market. Here’s where they’re funneling their cash instead Moneywise
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Big fan of the fourth turning, and we are at 81 years since Bretton Woods, which set the table for our fiat economic existence~

    …shift happens

    Reply ↓
  9. The Rev Kev

    “‘An Absolute Joke’: Trump DOJ Partially Releases Epstein Files, Many Heavily Redacted ”

    Barbra Streisand to the white courtesy phone, please. Frankly wasting the ink to produce 113 pages of big black blocks is the Trump regime mocking people. At least the entire Epstein saga is finished and closed and nobody will ever talk of it again, especially during the midterms.

    Reply ↓
    2. urdsama

      Disagree on the Epstein saga being over. Trump is still falling, and as the fall picks up speed the Epstein matter will come back. It’s too radioactive to die anytime soon.

      For either party.

      Reply ↓
      1. Norton

        Based on knowns, the fallout will be felt far more among the Dems. Bubba is front and center, and doesn’t have the benefit of Epstein’s own attorney and many witnesses attesting to lack of scandalous involvement for Trump.
        Bubba likely will be joined by a lot of celebrities in the hot seat. Also count on many from both sides of the aisle and from academia and media.
        The full scope of the espionage and blackmail may never be known, but more spotlights on DC, Cambridge and elsewhere are welcome.
        Now, pray for the children victimized as their experiences will haunt them for the rest of their lives.

        Reply ↓
  10. Carolinian

    Re the Iran/water story–talk about burying the lead. This is the final para.

    Politically, the country’s ambition for food security through self-reliance needs to be rethought, hydrologists say. There is simply not enough water to achieve it in the long run. Madani and others call for farmers to switch from growing thirsty staple crops such as rice to higher-value, less water-intensive crops that can be sold internationally in exchange for staples. But that requires Iran to lose its current political status as an international pariah and rejoin the global trading community.

    Given the heavy Israeli thumb on all of Iran’s international relations clearly the implied path for sanctions removal would be to bring back the reign of the Shahs who, as the article admits, also had more than a little to do with aquifer pumping and other environmental mistakes. One might also point out that the Cadillac Desert problem is prominent in our own Southwest with politically powerful agricultural incumbents being a factor.

    Reply ↓
    1. Polar Socialist

      …rejoin the global trading community.

      Does the writer know that Iran joined BRICS+ two years ago? It’s 36% of the global community by GDP PPP and 46% by population. 3 of the world top food producing countries are members, too.

      So maybe, just maybe, Iran is a enough of a member of the global trading community?

      Reply ↓
  13. jefemt

    Space X buying cybertrucks. Seems like an Elroy S L I C C */ Madoff Ponzi?

    Does Polymarket have book on:
    1. When Elroy demands another several bazillion in pay;
    2. The date of the Demand by Elroy for MOAR money MOAR Money because he’s Elroy & he’s Fabulous?

    * SL I C C – Self-licking Ice Cream Cone

    Reply ↓
    1. vao

      A complete idiot? He is the richest person on earth. He must really know what he is doing (and saying).

      That he got his wealth by hook and crook, and whether he believes in his own drivel is irrelevant; the governments that subsidize his endeavours, the public buying shares in them, the consumers acquiring the junk his firms produce, the press and other pundits transported into states of ectasy at his pronouncements — these are the true imbeciles.

      Reply ↓
      1. Geo

        Agreed. If he’s an idiot (and he seemingly is) what does that say about everyone else? Same could be said about Trump. He’s clearly a dullard but apparently a slick salesman can climb their way to the top. We are truly a society of marks.

        I often think back to the NFT/Metaverse craze a few years ago. Was at SXSW in 2022 and it was like being at a massive cult rally as the KoolAid was being passed around. The bottom was already dropping out but everyone was spewing buzzwords, minting coins, and speaking abstractly about the new frontier they were pioneering. I thought, just maybe, in all the talks about presentations I’d garner a hint at some sort of tangible application for any of it but walked away from that experience certain of nothing but how empty it all was. Just hype and faith.

        But, one thing that seems to draw in legions of diehard acolytes is confident hype. People swoon to that like moths to a flame. I’ll never understand it. Anyone that speaks to me with unbridled confidence repels me like a used car salesman. But it works on the vast majority of humanity it seems. I don’t claim to be smarter than others, I just don’t like salesmen/preacher types. I prefer people who see the complexity of the world and doubt their own grasp of it.

        Reply ↓
      2. urdsama

        Yes an idiot.

        Being born wealthy and then being at the right time, right place takes no intelligence. And the real reason for his wealth, achieving TechBro cult status, he fell into. None of that was planned, and he just believes his own BS.

        Reply ↓
  15. Wukchumni

    If you’re in a Waymo in San Francisco
    Be sure to wear some walking shoes there
    If you’re in a Waymo in San Francisco
    You’re gonna have to hoof it on foot there

    For those who come to San Francisco
    Christmastime will be a black-out there
    In the streets of San Francisco
    Gentle people with no electricity in their lair

    All across the city on an electricity vacation
    Such a strange vibration
    People in motion

    There’s no electricity generation
    With no explanation
    People in motion
    People in motion

    For those who come to San Francisco
    Be sure to wear some walking shoes there
    If you come to San Francisco
    Christmastime will be a black-out there

    If you come to San Francisco
    Christmastime will be a black-out there

    Reply ↓
  16. Jason Boxman

    So Kagi came out with a game to help kids detect AI slop.

    There’s a sneaky group called the Slop Syndicate that’s trying to trick everyone! They use computers to make fake stories, pictures, and sounds that look real but aren’t.

    This is the state of the world in late 2025.

    We need a tool like this for kids to understand econo-priest speak as well, so that they can see through market worship.

    Reply ↓
  18. Keith in Modesto

    I really enjoyed watching the video embedded at the top of the links showing a traditional egg decorating technique. Thanks for sharing that.

    Reply ↓

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