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US, ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN, START REGIONAL WAR; IRAN RETALIATES AGAINST ISRAEL, US BASES IN BAHRAIN, SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR. UPDATE: ISRAEL TV REPORTS IRAN BLOCKS STRAIT OF HORMUZ

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The US and Israel made unprovoked air striked against Iran. Iran has retaliated quickly by launching missiles and drones not just at Israel but also at bases across the region. I am relying considerably upon Twitter for updates but will also hoist from mainstream live blogs. I will keep updating this post through 9 AM EST; after that, I will provide any additional links and tweets in comments to keep the post from becoming too long to be useful.

Note as we cover soon as best we can, Iran has quickly retaliated. Al Jazeera reports (along with others) missile interceptions in Qatar and explosions in Abu Dabai, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Thomas Keith on X (a credible source) reports a mass casualty event on a US base in Saudi Arabia.

A big open question is if and when Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. As about 6:15 AM EST, Bloomberg reported it was still open:

Forgive me for giving you not much filtered information. First from Bloomberg, Trump Starts Massive Strikes, Urging Iranians to Seize Power:

  • President Donald Trump says the US has begun major combat operations against Iran
  • Airstrikes against Iran have been carried out by Israel and the US, with multiple provinces hit
  • Israel reported missile launches from Iran. Tehran also targeted a US base in Bahrain with explosions heard in Kuwait and Qatar downing an Iranian missile
  • Comes after weeks of talks failed to produce a fresh agreement on Iran’s nuclear program
  • OPEC+ will consider the option of a larger supply increase when key members meet on Sunday

From the Wall Street Journal:

The U.S. and Israel said they launched an attack on Iran, which retaliated with strikes on Israel and targeted U.S. bases. President Trump confirmed major combat operations against the regime, and urged Iranians to “take over your government” as the strikes continued.

“I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump said in a video posted on Truth Social. He said the military operation would strike Iran’s missile and nuclear programs as well as its navy. The focus of the strikes, he said, was to ensure Americans “will never be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran.”

The U.S. and Israel plan to carry out several days of intensive attacks, people familiar with the matter said.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said they had launched missile and drone attacks toward Israel.

Tehran is unleashing its stockpile of missiles against all but one of the U.S. bases in the Gulf.

A civilian was killed in the United Arab Emirates by falling debris from intercepted missiles.

Tankers diverted from the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices have been rising over fears of conflict.

And an update at the Journal from around 6:30 AM EST:

Iran has fired dozens of missiles at Israel since the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran began, according to an Israeli military official. The missiles have prompted repeated blaring sirens across the country instructing Israelis to enter safe spaces. Emergency services in Israel haven’t reported any serious injuries so far.

Israel has a sophisticated multi-layered air-defense system, much of which it developed alongside the U.S. Defense systems include the Iron Dome, which is designed to shoot down short-range rockets, and the Arrow 3, which is for the interception of long-range ballistic missiles that leave the Earth’s atmosphere during flight.

From the Financial Times:

Donald Trump called on Iranians to overthrow their government as the US and Israel launched air strikes in what the president described as a “massive and ongoing operation” against the Islamic regime on Saturday morning.

Trump’s address from his Mar-a-Lago resort came as huge explosions rocked Tehran, with smoke rising on Pasteur Street, where the Iranian president’s office is located.

The attack prompted swift retaliation from Iran, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard launching what it said was a “first wave of a massive missile and drone strike” against Israel.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which both host US military bases, said they had thwarted retaliatory missile attacks, while Jordan said it has intercepted two ballistic missiles targeting the country…..

The military operation appears to be the US and Israel’s most significant attempt to overthrow the Islamic regime since it swept to power in 1979, in a revolution that redrew the political map of the Middle East and transformed Iran into one of America’s biggest adversaries.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the strikes would “create the conditions for the courageous Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands”.

Analysts said that the assault, which the Pentagon has dubbed Operation Epic Fury, risked pushing up oil prices when trading reopens on Monday,

Note that these interceptions do not even begin to say that the US or its regional allies are out of the woods. In the 12 Day War, Iran sent slower and older missiles and drones in the opening days to deplete Israeli’s air defenses, then launches more potent weapons that had much higher penetration rates both due them being faster on average and the Israeli Iron Dome becoming threadbare.

This bit from the pink paper is cringe-making:

Donald Trump urged Iran’s armed forces to lay down their weapons or “face certain death”, and called on the Iranian people to take down their government.

Trump said in a video on social media on Saturday:

“To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or in the alternative, face certain death. So lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death.”

From the BBC in US and Israel carry out joint attack on Iran as Tehran launches retaliatory strikes:

US and Israel launch an attack on Iran, as President Donald Trump confirms “major combat operations” are under way and calls for a regime change

The Israel Defense Forces says retaliatory strikes have been launched by Iran towards the country – and explosions have been heard in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait…

Following US and Israel’s strikes on Iran – and Tehran’s retaliation – we’ve been hearing from world leaders:

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reminds us that the European bloc has adopted “extensive sanctions” in response to Iran’s “murderous regime”. “We call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint, to protect civilians, and to fully respect international law.”

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s office expresses solidarity with Iran’s civilian population, saying it continues to demand respect for civil and political rights. The office adds that Meloni will consult allies and regional leaders to support efforts to ease tensions.

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says his country “stands with the brave people of Iran in their struggle against oppression” and supports the US in efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, Russia’s foreign ministry describes the US and Israel’s actions as “reckless”, saying they violate international law. Russia calls for a return to political and diplomatic solutions.

Earlier, a UK government spokesperson said the country does “not want to see further escalation into a wider regional conflict”, adding, “we stand ready to protect our interests”.

From the Guardian, which already has a lot of images from Iran posted:

Videos and images filtering out of Iran on public Telegram channels appear to record extensive strikes across the country; with smoke hovering over buildings, the noise of car horns honking, conversation, and occasional cheering, and fires and jets tearing across the sky.

These videos, many of which appear to be from Iranian civilians, suggest there have so far been strikes in Kermanshah, near the border with Iraq, in the city of Minab, Homorzgan province, on the IRGC brigade there, in the city of Bushhehr, on the Persian Gulf, and on Iranian army bases near Chabahar, near the border with Pakistan.

They also appear to indicate extensive strikes on Tehran.

More videos suggest that the military complex in Parchin, which allegedly produces chemical weapons, has been struck. So has a site in Kahrizak, where thousands of protestors were massacred earlier this month, as well as an IRGC base near Mount Damarvand. One more video appears to indicate that the house of former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been struck, in downtown Tehran; in the video, crowds of people wander about, filming the low flames.

The Guardian also reports, not surprisingly, that flights across the region have been cancelled.

The Times reports that the strikes hit Khamenei’s secure compound in Tehran and that the UAE claimed to have hit by defense missile debris.

If you have the stomach, The Times of Israel has a live blog. The Jerusalem Post reports Senior IRGC, regime officials killed in Israel-US strikes on Iran, source says.

Now to tweets:

Republic News is excitable but also on top of developments:

And some initial commentary:

UPDATE 7:20 AM: From Aljazeera:

‘This is not your war’: Omani foreign minister urges US ‘not to get sucked in further’

We have the first public reaction by Badr Albusaidi, the foreign minister of Oman, who had been mediating the recent rounds of indirect talks between the US and Iran.

In a social media post, Albusaidi said he was “dismayed” by today’s attacks.

“Active and serious negotiations have yet again been undermined. Neither the interests of the United States nor the cause of global peace are well served by this. And I pray for the innocents who will suffer,” he added.

“I urge the United States not to get sucked in further. This is not your war.”

UPDATE 8:45 AM EST. From BBC:

Iranian official says girls’ school death toll rises to 53 – report

The death toll after a strike on a girls’ school has risen to 53, according to Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), which cites a spokesperson for the country’s ministry of education.

Ali Farhadi tells the agency the school was “targeted by three missile attacks” today. He also says that an additional 63 people were also injured in the attacks.

The spokesman added that the school is being cleared of debris to search for other possible victims.

The BBC has not been able to independently verify this – international news organisations are often refused visas to Iran which severely limits their ability to gather information about what’s going on inside the country.

From Al Mayadeen:

Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles toward “Israel” on Saturday in what Tehran described as a direct response to aggression against its territory, according to Iranian media.

Nournews confirmed the launch of dozens of missiles, while Iranian missiles reportedly targeted Haifa as well as areas in northern occupied Palestine. Additionally, the Israeli military said it had detected a barrage of missiles launched from Iran toward “Israel” and in Tel Aviv. Israeli media also reported the detection of missile launches toward Tel Aviv.

In parallel, Iranian state television announced that Tehran is preparing a crushing retaliation against the Zionist entity, affirming that attacks on Iranian sovereignty will not go unanswered.

According to Nournews, a third wave of Iranian missile attacks was detected in occupied Palestine.

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) had told the Russian news agency RIA Novosti that Iran’s response to the aggression would take place within the next few hours, indicating that further developments may follow as the confrontation escalates.

And PressTV:

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has carried out a string of simultaneous and massive missile strikes against US military bases across West Asia in retaliation for airstrikes targeting several cities in Iran, including the capital Tehran.

Arabic-language media outlets reported that the Iranian missiles struck US military installations in Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Local media reported that a series of the projectiles slammed into a base where US marines are based in Jafir region of Bahrain

Bahraini authorities state that the service center of the Fifth Fleet of the US Navy has been hit as a result.

The Qatar-based Al Jazeera news network also reported that a number of loud explosions were heard in Kuwait City. Sirens warning of incoming missiles were triggered.

There are reports that Ali Al-Salem airbase west of the Kuwaiti capital was targeted.

Moreover, al-Udeid airbase in the Qatari capital of Doha has been pounded as well.

The US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on Saturday morning.

Thick smoke was seen rising in the sky following blasts in Tehran. There were also explosions in Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, Tabriz and Kermanshah.

Should have posted this sooner (there are key bits in some of the items above). Better late than never:

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407 comments

  1. Louis Fyne

    Twitter is full of videos of reasonably credible videos impacts/fires. At the bare minimumk, looks like diesel storage was hit at the 5th Fleet HQ base.

    Even in 1953 or 1973 (Vietnam)`or 1945, the rear HQ was never in jeopardy.

    this will be more like 1973’s Yom Kippur War…..a worldwide, history-rippling event. last summmer’s exchange is a hiccup in comparison.

    fill up your car if you wanna save a few bucks, lmao.

        1. Pensions Guy

          Over 50 years ago, I worked in radar maintenance. I have been predicting to my friends that among the first targets would be the radar sites in Middle Eastern countries, without which the Patriot and THAAD systems become much less effective. This was not rocket science and should have been high on the briefing lists for our decision-makers.

          1. David

            Radar and communication systems have always been prime targets when america has launched it’s shock and awe attacks on countries. So I’m sure the planners would know. But then arrogance can make people very blind.

          2. Piotr Berman

            Technically, as rockets and radars work in tandem, and in turn, may be destroyed by rockets, this is a part of rocket science.

      2. JohnnyGL

        Damn, that’s a very ordinary drone very clearly knocking out that radar installation. If that’s the kind of thing happening on day 1, then this is going completely pear-shaped in a hurry!

        The US is going to be flying blind in a matter of days.

      1. tegnost

        Larry and Ray were at it pretty good yesterday, and like Larry I hoped Ray was right, but looks like Larry called it.

      1. ambrit

        Yes, just like the fuel oil facilities at Pearl Harbour. Genda is supposed to have demanded a third flight off of the Kido Butai to hit those tank farms at Hawaii. Admiral Nagumo said no and the war was basically America’s to lose from then on.
        Cat Burglar has a point. Even though those fuel supplies are in the middle of a world class oil source, that oil has to be refined first.

        1. hk

          Tbf, it would have been next to impossible for the technology of the time to do serious damage to the main fuel storage at Pearl Harbor. They were well protected, with plenty of precautions against damage. No WW2 era bomb available on a carrier could have seriously damaged them, as I understand it. Things may be different now, though.

  2. Wukchumni

    Analysts said that the assault, which the Pentagon has dubbed Operation Epic Fury, risked pushing up oil prices when trading reopens on Monday,
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Operation Urgent Fury was 43 years ago, and maybe even more of a dubious war, if that’s possible.

      1. ambrit

        Not to mention the so called Precious Metals, “my preciosssss,” markets. The flight to “safe” assets will begin on Sunday evening. How the Chinese markets respond to this will set the tone for the rest of the world. The degree to which gold and silver “gap up” Sunday evening, Eastern Standard Time, will also be a useful indicator of world sentiment concerning this ‘event.’
        Stay safe, triple check the stack.

        1. LawnDart

          Do you think they’re they gonna flee to US Treasuries this time, like in times past? (Just kidding!)

          Yeah, that stack will at least buy some time (YMMV): between that and the dog, I should be able to eat for a couple of weeks.

    2. lyman alpha blob

      Remember when they called the Iraq invasion “Operation Iraqi Liberation” at first go? Then they had to change it because the OIL acronym kinda proved that the “No blood for oil” people had a valid point, and “Operation Iraqi Freedom” it was from then on.

      Here’s hoping the use of Epic turns out to be similarly misguided, and Epic Fury turns rapidly to Epic Fail.

      1. ambrit

        US bases are already being hit, which makes it a “fail” par excellance. American personnel coming home in body bags was a key ‘driver’ of opposition to the Indochina War.
        The degree to which the “News Outlets” cover American casualties will be a main factor in public reaction to this latest American Adventure. We are about to discover just how “captured” the American media really are. For instance, will YouTube censor ‘reporting’ on this “little war?”
        The Myth of American exceptionalism is being dealt a fatal blow.

        1. Wukchumni

          First pictures of American war dead don’t appear until 1943 in Life magazine, give it a couple years~

          1. earthling

            The world now has 7 billion smartphones in use, so things will be different this time. Photographers may have to make an end run around the corporate media, but images will be seen. The military can work hard to hide coffins and body bags, but eventually the coffins come home and images ‘go viral’ whether FoxCBS likes it or not.

          2. The Rev Kev

            I think that the photo was dead troops at a beach in Guadalcanal. Roosevelt himself had to authorize the release of that photo to make Americans aware of the price being paid.

            1. rowlf

              In the Forrest Pogue taped interviews in the mid 1950s with former General Of The Army George Marshall, Marshall said he always brought a chart of US military causalities when he met with FDR.

  3. Louis Fyne

    the reasonable assumption is that the oldest missiles get sent first, to drain US-Israeli air defense magazines. and even in the opening round, it looks bad.

    this was the amuse bouche. tonight/(this afternoon USA time) will be the start of the real show.

    and the Shia in Yemen and Iraq and Lebanon have yet to enter chat

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Yes, I neglected to mention probable Shia responses across the region.

      A contact pointed out that they man the oil fields in Saudi Arabia. No need to bomb them if Iran declares a fatwa…..

      1. DGE

        It doesn’t even need to be Iran. Al-Sistani is the marja al-mutlaq by most sources. If he issues a fatwa from Najaf, all bets are off.

        1. jo6pac

          True, I read the other day that Sunni had joined Iran to help on Iran’s borders. I can’t find it know so it could be false.

    2. Mark Gisleson

      I’m already bracing myself for 9/11 part two: ALL LOYAL AMERICANS MUST SUPPORT OUR TROOPS!

      I do support our troops and consequently wish we’d bring them all home.

        1. ambrit

          The degree to which junior officers and non-commissioned officers “follow orders” will be crucial.
          Hopefully, the officers “in the field” will try to avoid conflicts with “locals” at all costs.
          What if “The Arab Street” rises? This could also be the end for some of the autocracies in the region. As the Late Lamented Lambert was wont to say, it is an “overly complex situation.”
          Note: I typed “Lambert Strether” into Google, to try and find the exact wording of the Lambert quote, and the first mention was for Naked Capitalism.
          Huzzah!

          2. deplorado

            “Late” Lambert??
            Has he passed away? I hope you only mean “late” as a former contributor…

            1. ambrit

              I really do not know, but I am working on the assumption, (I know, I know,) that he has embraced the Eightfold Path and has left the cares of the world, of politics at least, behind.
              I am not prone to Irony deficiency.
              Stay safe.

      2. Lefty Godot

        The President he’s got his war
        Folks don’t know just what it’s for
        Nobody gives us a rhyme or reason
        Have one doubt they call it treason
        – Compared to What (Gene McDaniels)

        That was a hit in 1969, but it would have been appropriate so many times since then…

    3. hk

      Bahrain is majority Shia, in addition to hosting US Naval base. If the Bahrainis seek to overthrow their very dictatorial monarchy, will US military be forced to prop up the regime themselves? An uprising in Bahrain probably won’t need all that much outside help.

  4. The Rev Kev

    For those who can stand it, here is Trump’s speech justifying why he has committed the US to go to war with Iran-

    https://xcancel.com/unusual_whales/status/2027649142399635531 (8:07 mins)

    Iran let the US & Israel get the first blows in so that the international community would have no doubt who started it. But by the sounds of it, the Iranians have gone with their own version of “Shock & Awe” and it is not so much a matter of hitting all those US bases and Israeli targets but to shake Trump up and make him realize that this will not be a cake walk but that this is a real war and much more intense than the 12 day war. Trump will realize than none of his plans will work out and that this could last for weeks – or until the US & Israel runs out of anti-air missiles. You can bet that the Israelis are bitching how all those anti-air missiles defending US bases should be immediately be sent to Israel instead. Now that Trump has started it, how does he stop it? Will the Iranians let him? Gunna say now that as far as the rest of his Presidency is concerned, he is a dead man walking.

    1. TimH

      And yet again the negotiations were a delaying action and not in good faith, so how exactly is Iran going accept a reasonable exit? The collective West’s rhetoric is Trump-sucking too.

      1. David

        I can’t decide to laugh or cry at european leaders who said iran needs to offer a diplomatic way out for peace. Was that not what they have been doing?

    3. TomDority

      Trump says US has launched a regime change war….
      And he has done this without congressional approval !!
      …again

  5. .Tom

    Fwiw, Ritter told Diesen on YT that the initial decapitation strike has failed.

    It seems likely that Trump was hoping for a popular revolution following decapitation. What else would he have been hoping for as a best possible outcome?

    Operation Epic Fury (sound like Peter Brian “Roid Rage” Hegseth chose that one) against Operation True Promise 4.

      1. Jabura Basadai

        listening to this the first thought that came is, what about the nuclear weapons that both the US and Israel have to use…..especially Israel? – only listened to 10 minutes of Ritter but isn’t nuclear capability a concern as well if Iran becomes capable of winning?

        1. Who Cares

          Israel will only use nukes when it is a choice between not firing them and ceasing to be a state or firing them an ceasing to be a state. That said the number of nukes Israel has is enough to cause massive amounts of death and destruction but not destroy Iran.
          The US is a different problem. Trump is capable of ordering a nuclear strike during a temper tantrum and only the military ignoring that order would prevent it from happening.

  6. Louis Fyne

    dunno enough about internal Iranian politics, but apparently given the war, Iran has a separate war cabinet that is now in charge…(?)

    https://x.com/S_Mahendrarajah/status/2027711928043258028

    Iran’s Defense Council
    Fun fact: now that an existential war has been imposed on Iran, national security decisions are no longer the purview of Supreme National Security Council (SNSC)—led by Ali Larijani. The Defense Council (Shura-yi difʿa) led by Ali Shamkani, will run the show.

    Unlike SNSC, there are no politicians, Reformists, and “let’s make a deal types.” Shura is 100% military and intel professionals.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Next time somebody tells you that it was only a pre-emptive attack, ask them the following question-

      ‘You mean like the Japanese pre-emptive attack on Pearl Harbour back in 1941?’

      See if the penny drops.

      1. hk

        The funny thing was that, before Pearl Harbor, surprise attacks against countries not officially at war with you was considered glorious among Anglo Saxons: “Copenhagening” (term inspired by British surprise attack on Denmark which might ally with Napoleon) was a positive term.

        1. David

          I’m sure I read about that being the inspiration for the Japanese surprise attack on Russia at Port Arthur.

      1. LawnDart

        Yes, I do need to budget for a VPN, and for.a number of reasons aside from this one.

        I’ve tried Brave, Yandex, and even Tor, but throughout most of the day I just get a blank page.

  8. Safety First

    For those who want to track how Iranian media is covering this, including a bunch of videos, here is a link to the Russian-language Telegram channel of Pars Today. You do NOT have to register (though without registration some videos will not function), and the link will work from any browser. Any auto-translator (e.g. the one built into Firefox) should convert the text into English – and the text snippets are short, so the translation quality should be ok-ish.

    https://t.me/s/parstodayrussian

    Also, I encourage everyone, however you feel about this conflict, to stay calm and not jump at any individual news item until it can be verified.

  9. HH

    The wide range of U.S. targets struck is effectively a probe to see where the interceptors are concentrated. Once the weak points are found, the targeting will be adjusted. I don’t think Iran will stop until it has inflicted serious damage on U.S. forces. Otherwise, they are inviting repeated attacks. Dispersal of U.S. aircraft will be a major operational challenge. If they are moved to secondary airfields, it will be difficult to reposition air defense assets to those backup locations. This will be an elaborate chess game of shifting aircraft positioning. If the Iranians are getting timely satellite intelligence, they are going to take a toll on U.S. aircraft, which need to land for fueling, armament, and repair.

    1. ex-PFC Chuck

      In a recent conversation with Glenn Diesen, Col. Danny Davis emphasized that the air refueling tankers will be critical targets for Iran. If the Persians can take out significant numbers of them it will squelch the The USAians’ and and Israelis’ ability to continue the air campaign.

      1. hk

        If enough tankers are permanently lost, I’d imagine that would seriously damage US’s ability to project power in general for years to come, beyond this conflict…

        3. David

          The US currently has a big issue with tankers. The new KC-46 has had delays in manufscture, a lack of spare parts leading to poor availability and some of the design features don’t even work.

          1. Fazal Majid

            That’s what happens when you pick Boeing over Airbus for political reasons. My uncle worked on the C-17 project and told me hair-raising tales about the level of corruption at McDonnell-Douglas.

            1. Ben Joseph

              Eugene Jarecki in ‘Why We Fight’ pointed out that the dissemination of F35 parts manufacture across congressional districts was useful for funding, but not for mechanical integrity. No boondoggle MIC failures surprise me.

              1. David

                The Germans had a similar issue with one of their u-boats towards the end of the war. They decided the limitation on dockyards could be worked around by using a modular design and building sections in different inland factories. They would asemble them in a dockyard. Thr problem was they really struggled with connecting the modules and not having leak issues.

  10. Irrational

    According to Telegram channel Geopolitics Prime, a US radar in Qatar has been destroyed and Muwaffaq Saiti air base in Jordan has been targeted.

    1. redleg

      Based on video, it got smoked by what looks like a shahed drone. This begs a question: how did that get through the air defenses to hit such a significant target? There isn’t even any flak. A shahed should be relatively easily intercepted or jammed, and that billion dollar radar should be heavily defended.

      1. David

        Most western countries moved away from anti aircraft guns in the missile age. But fast firing guns are a great drone defence. The Germans were mocked for providing Gepard SPAA to the Ukranians. Yet the Ukrainians have said on many occasions that they are the most important armoured vehicles they have been provided as they are such good drone killers.

  11. lyman alpha blob

    Well so much for getting any Congresspeople on record before starting a war. I will assume any who haven’t publicly opposed an illegal invasion already are all in on their support for the Zionist entity and Trump. That would be the vast majority of them.

    I wonder what polymarket says the chances of impeachment over an illegal Zionist-friendly war are? My guess is zero.

  12. junkelly

    The english al mayadeen site seems like a reliable source. There is a scrolling ‘breaking’ news section across the top that has information that hasn’t been truned into articles yet. For example: “IRGC Public Relations: The American radar FPS132 with a range of 5,000 kilometers stationed in Qatar, equipped with unique equipment used for tracking ballistic missiles, was completely destroyed.”

    3. lyman alpha blob

      Thank you. I notice that Al Mayadeen consistently refers to the Zionist entity as “Israel” – scare quotes are theirs. One hopes that “Israel” as a nation state ceases to exist soon and the maps again simply say Palestine with Muslims, Christians and Jews of the non-fanatical varieties living in peace again like they did before 1948.

      1. LifelongLib

        As “Aurelien” points out, prior to 1948 “Palestine” was under the control of various distant empires and communities there didn’t have power over each other. Whatever peace there was resulted from that, not from people then being more enlightened than they are now. No idea how to replicate that situation today.

        2. lyman alpha blob

          I’m not saying everything was peace, love and understanding. I was thinking of a video interview I saw recently of a Jewish academic who described growing up as a Jew in Iran pre-1948. After Israel was imposed ion the region, Iran allowed Jews to emigrate to Israel freely if they wanted, but few decided to leave at first. Then in the early 50s bombings started in Jewish neighborhoods in Iran and his family did flee to Israel then. According to his research, those bombings were perpetrated by Israelis pour encourager les autres to get to Israel.

          The more you learn about the history of Israel, it becomes apparent that the country was founded by bloodthirsty fanatics and is still run by them.

          1. vao

            “Then in the early 50s bombings started in Jewish neighborhoods in Iran and his family did flee to Israel then. According to his research, those bombings were perpetrated by Israelis pour encourager les autres to get to Israel.”

            The Lavon affair revealed that this had been standard operating procedure of the zionists in the 1950s in order to motivate Arab Jews to emigrate to Israel. False-flags attacks had been organized in Iraq and Egypt. I did not know they had also been a thing in Iran.

            1. lyman alpha blob

              Thank you Jim and Vao. I’d forgotten his name, but that’s who I was thinking of, and his family is from Iraq, not Iran. I still can’t out my finger on the video, but he made the point that life for Jews was pretty good in Iraq in his early childhood.

  13. Retaj

    Glenn Diesen Talks with Scott Ritter (YouTube)

    – US is limited by munitions. A 5 week war cannot be sustained.
    – Iran regime goal is to survive. Failure of the US and Israel will induce reverse regime change.
    – This is a war for domestic political consumption to save Trump’s presidency. Ritter foresees failure.
    – Iran demonstrated that their missile tactics are very successful vs missile defense.
    – Israel attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon and they may join due to an existential threat to their support in the regime,
    – Russia and China will encourage keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. But attacking energy infrastructure would expand the scope to an economic war implying the closure of the strait.

    (This video was also mentioned above)

    2. XXYY

      This interview is extremely good. Ritter is taking on the quality of a knowledgeable elder statesman at this point in his career and he is fulfilling it well.

      Strangely reassuring to see a figure like this in the howling information desert that we are usually confronting.

  14. Acacia

    Via Pars Today:

    Urgent | Press Service Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: the fall of US and Israel missiles

    Some of the U.S. and Israeli missiles fell in the desert and urban areas of Iraq and the Persian Gulf countries after it failed to achieve their goals.

    As a result of missile strikes on American bases, at least 200 servicemen have been killed and wounded so far.

  15. flora

    Thanks for this post.
    At the same time Isr/US attacked Iran, Pakistan declares it is in open war against Afghanistan. From AP:

    Pakistan is in ‘open war’ with Afghanistan after latest strikes, defense minister says

    https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-pakistan-airstrikes-open-war-98927b79ee9ef5741bf0804956d3c2e6

    After last year’s strike on Iran, Pakistan came out in support of Iran and called on all Muslim countries to unite against ‘the aggressor.’

    ————————-

    Imo, after US Amb. to Isr Mike Huckabee’s statement that it would be fine if Isr “takes it all”, this thing is going to blow up into something much wider than a regional war.

    The timing is interesting,too. Yesterday, the Clinton’s testified before the Epstein Files Congressional Committee. The attack on Iran early this morning pushed their testimony out of today’s headlines. I doubt the Sunday morning news shows will mention the Clinton testimony. War on Iran is the big story now. (The Epstein Class protecting itself? It’s impossible to be too cynical about that class of global financial actors.)

    1. flora

      adding: this squeezes Pakistan between Afghanistan to the west and India to the east, both either at war or near war with Pakistan.

      (Anyone remember the Parker Brothers old board game called RISK?)

      1. ambrit

        I think we still have an old copy of it up in the attic. Our board game preferences nowadays run more to Scrabble. (It has been years since I could get up a crew to run a large scale tabletop wargame. I used to have a subscription to Strategy and Tactics magazine, which sent out a new tabletop paper game every two months or so. Fun times when war was an exercise in mental gymnastics.)
        Stay safe.

    1. Acacia

      Missiles already dropping into residential areas and blowing up. Gee, all those USian bases everywhere in the Middle East sure provided excellent “security” didn’t they?

  17. Louis Fyne

    looking at the videos trickling out….

    holy F, it looks like the US/Israel started this war in the most retarded way possible…100% missiles (cruise missiles) using intel of dubious quality. No B-2, no test of the F-35 to truly get a decapitation.

    like the proverbial: if you shoot for the King, you better not miss

  18. Tom Stone

    Trump has started a War starting with a 70% disapproval rate, a losing War.
    IMO this guarantees no mid terms and almost certainly guarantees Martial Law, Trump’s announcement that he will seek a third term is gasoline on the fire.
    It is going to get real messy, real quick.

    1. Ben Panga

      I think he’ll definitely try. But he is making a lot of enemies in the US military with this, and the Thielites were not in board either. We’ll see if the US Zionists come out of this with the same power they went into it; Trump has anyway served his purpose to them.

      Who will stand with Trump on the day after? You can’t coup a coup without substantial support from military/capital stakeholders.

      I believe we will see President Vance soon.

      1. John Wright

        A few days ago a young woman was interviewed and said she voted for Trump “before he got stupid”.

        There will be many more former Trump supporters.

        Trump may be now viewed as the USA’s Nero, playing golf as the USA declines in the world stage.

        Bone spurs won’t save him from this conflict this time.

  19. Trees&Trunks

    A view from Russia:

    “The first thing that catches the eye is the geography of the strikes. They hit Tehran, targets that had already been attacked in the summer. But Tehran is in northern Iran. If the strikes weren’t carried out from the Persian Gulf (which would have been convenient), then they must have come from somewhere in the north. Where exactly? From Iraqi Kurdistan? Turkey? Or post-Soviet Azerbaijan?” asks political scientist and orientalist Karine Gevorgyan.

    https://m-vz-ru.translate.goog/news/2026/2/28/1398257.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    1. The Rev Kev

      Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron insists that Iran must ‘understand that it now has no other option but to engage in good faith in negotiations to end its nuclear and ballistic programs.’ He must have missed the bit where once again the US attacked Iran in the middle of negotiations.

      1. pjay

        … and the part where the US threw out the existing verifiable nuclear agreement so that Israel and the neocons could use this nuclear “threat” as an excuse to destroy the last resisting country standing.

        Macron, Carney, and all the other lackeys are such disgusting bootlickers.

        1. David

          I was in Azerbaijan until yesterday. Flew home today thankfully. I didn’t see any of the signs I’ve seen in the past when they have had security issues with Armenia and which I’d suspect them to implement if they knew something was coming with Iran.

    3. Don

      The Canadian political leadership’s principals have been no better than, say, the Democrats in the US or Labour in Britain for a very long time, and that’s a low bar — The Conservative/Liberal/NewDemocrat array is our version of the Uniparty. The glue affixing the fig/maple leaf is beginning to fail. Fortunately, this is no longer a serious country, because it hasn’t been a principled one for a very long time.

      During WWII, Canada’s army was the sixth largest in the world — If that was still the case, we would probably have a lot of blood on our hands. We are perilously close to the point where we can no longer comfort ourselves by saying “At least we’re not the USA.”

      1. vao

        “During WWII, Canada’s army was the sixth largest in the world”

        Where did you get that figure?

        Even if we eliminate France, Poland (both out after 1940), and India (adding its military personnel to the UK), this leaves Canada on rank 9 — behind Romania (an often forgotten Axis ally which played a not insignificant role on the Eastern front).

    1. NevilShute

      This slaughter courtesy of the “exceptional” nation. We can only hope this doesn’t escalate into a nuclear WW III.

      1. Jabura Basadai

        my fear exactly – if it becomes clear that capability doesn’t match desired outcome will Israel turn to nukes – and with a lot of the old guard command forced out of the US armed forces will they have newbies willing to give it a try –

  22. Acacia

    Some on X are now referring to the belligerents as “The Epstein Regime coalition” lol.

    And Al mayadeen always refers to “Israel” using quotation marks.

    1. LawnDart

      Quotes are used because the proper name for these lands (in the opinion of many) is Palestine. “Israel” became into vogue around 1936 among certain nationalists that were supported in part by British interests, and we all have at least some familiarity with what happened from there.

  23. johnnyme

    Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is live on NBC news right now. He said all high ranking officials are still alive and they may have lost a few commanders.

      1. Yeti

        Thanks, just watched Ritter with the judge blasting the higher ups for blowing up two girls schools. He got very emotional remembering his failure in Iraq….this won’t end well

        1. .Tom

          Yes, it was remarkable to see that. Ritter has personal history with one of the worst US military targeting failures in living memory. In the Gulf War he helped pick the impact points and choose munitions for the Amiriyah bomb shelter. 408 women and children dead. I urge you all to watch him tell the story. Then he talks about the bombing of a school near Tehran this morning and his fury is … epic. Starts about 28 min in.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDVrnJhsSlU

          1. Peter Steckel

            Thank you for that reference – you can see and hear and feel how hurt and angered Scott Ritter is in his response. There is no doubt that Scott Ritter is incredibly saddened and troubled by the US war in Iran. My nobler side considers there are no war crimes, war is the crime. My darker side reflects:
            “It makes no difference what men think of war, said the judge. War endures. As well ask men what they think of stone. War was always here. Before man was, war waited for him. The ultimate trade awaiting its ultimate practitioner. That is the way it was and will be. That way and not some other way.”

            1. pjay

              Whatever flaws he might have, I will always remember and respect his monumental, practically one man effort, to get the truth out about the WMD bullshit before the second Iraq invasion. For a while he was appearing on network tv and sounding quite convincing – so he was blackballed and smeared. Later, rather than be recognized as a lone truth teller he was rewarded by being set up in a kiddie porn sting. Yet he is still trying.

              I see him as a man who feels betrayed by the country he served.

            2. lyman alpha blob

              Thanks for that quote. I’d like to think Cormac isn’t correct, but he made a compelling case with that book.

  25. Trees&Trunks

    Israel plunges Iran into darkness with largest cyberattack in history during attack against Iran

    Attack meant to prevent IRGC coordination

    Western intelligence sources said the damage to the IRGC’s communications infrastructure was meant to prevent coordination of counterattacks and disrupt the ability to launch drones and ballistic missiles by Iranian cyber and electronic units.

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-888271

    DDgeopolitics on Telegram comments: drones and missiles are not launched online. The attack is stop Iran from publishing counter-information to the child-murdering Zionist regime.

      1. ambrit

        That’s why Iranian strikes on Dimona will be important. I’m not too up on the physics of it all but a few oreshnik style strikes on Dimona could release a big radiation “event” in Southern Israel.

        1. Who Cares

          Israel has nukes on submarines to prevent the poke Dimona to stop Israel from launching nukes scenario.
          Israel has about 90 plutonium based nukes, that means implosion type devices There is a reason why implosion devices are preferred, they don’t initiate when damaged. So no big radiation events. Especially if you somehow managed to convince the Russians to drop an Oreshnik or three seeing that almost everything would be contained underground. If an initiation event would occur then you’d get the result of Operation Plumbbob not a ground burst.

        1. MicaT

          Definitely not true.
          You can’t fool the seismic graphs as bombs have a completely different signature than a natural earthquake.
          Plus bombs are not at 7 miles deep

    2. wol

      Three days ago I finished a dark painting. Titles rarely come to me instantaneously but ‘Jericho’ hit hard, the code name for Israel’s ‘doomsday’ nuclear missile option.

    3. LawnDart

      Yes, I agree, and wonder if this is the reason Pakistan was drawn into war a few days ago– recall that there were rumors/speculation that Pakistan would provide Tehran the bomb if Israel attacked.

    4. Yves Smith Post author

      The Chinese spy ship that can see subs may be an important impediment.

      A contact says Israel keeps nukes significantly on subs

      That spy ship may make it hard to get the subs into good launch positions

      1. David

        It can keep track of them. But unless there were Chinese warships in the area and rhey were willing to at least bluff they would attack the subs. Then they can’t do anything.

      2. Ben Panga

        Would/could Israel take out the spy ship?

        If they’re nuts enough to be going nuclear, pissing off (to put it mildly) the Chinese seems possible.

        It’s very hard trying to game anything out when half the actors are borderline insane.

        1. David

          Well they sunk an American spy ship and that’s their biggest ally.

          But one thing to remember is that China is a major trade partner of Israel. Frankly China could have stopped Gaza in it’s tracks but cutting off trade to Israel. They don’t sell military kit but yoy can guarantee that stuff they do sell will end up in military production.

          1. hk

            Attack on USS Liberty, supposedly, caused an entire strike package from being assembled and launched from USS America (the nearest 6th fleet carrier at the time.) It took a personal intervention from LBJ to turn the planes back because the admiral in charge refused to obey if it were just McNamara telling him to stand down. I don’t think Xi would personally intervene to cover for the Israelis.

            1. David

              I have no idea if he would or wouldn’t. He certainly didn’t make any noice over Gaza though.

              But thr problem becomes practical. The Chinese have massively expanded their navy. But it is not yet a fully expeditionary navy. I’m assuming the spy ship is in the Mediterranean. If so the chinese csn do nothing to protect it. Any Chinese warships in the Mediterranean would be cut off from supplies, reinforcements and a line of retreat. They would be a flaotinf coffin in waiting. And they have no ability to operate air assets in region. Even if this were to happen in the Red Sea they would not be much better off.

              There is a reason China did nothing over Venezuela and a reason why they will be unlinkely to do anything for Iran. By fighting to supprt these counteies they would be giving up all their strengths and incewasing their weaknesses.

    1. Acacia

      The “Trump demands ceasefire via Italy” being reported via Russian Telegram too.

      Most of the responses are 😁 and 🤣

  29. Acacia

    IRGC press service: the U.S. MST combat support ship was hit by powerful IRGC Navy missiles.

    Other naval forces of the U.S. Navy will be targeted by missiles and drones of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the future.

    14 American military bases in the region have so far been hit by Iranian missiles and drones.

  30. The Rev Kev

    The Saudis are still sucking up to Trump-

    ‘RIYADH – The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a sharp condemnation on Saturday, denouncing what it described as “brutal Iranian aggression” and a “flagrant violation” of the sovereignty of several neighbouring and regional states.

    The statement explicitly named the United Arab Emirates, Kingdom of Bahrain, State of Qatar, State of Kuwait, and Jordan as targets of Iranian missile and drone strikes, which Riyadh labeled as heinous acts threatening regional security and stability.’

    https://middle-east-online.com/en/saudi-arabia-strongly-condemns-iran%E2%80%99s-attacks-uae-bahrain-qatar-kuwait-and-jordan

    I think that the Iranians would have told them that if those countries are hosting US bases that are used to attack Iran with, then they are fair game.

    1. ArvidMartensen

      I always thought that the news that Saudi wouldn’t support US attacks from Saudi airfields was psyops.

  32. ocypode

    It’s looking pretty ogre for the US and Israel. Looks like Iran is holding no punches, and that the response won’t be short. I wonder how the news of dead US army-men will pan out.

  35. Yves Smith Post author

    1. elkern

      Smart move. Sink a carrier – with 5,000 sailors – and Americans line up to push the button. Sink a “support vessel”, and Americans shrug (“whuts that?”) but the Admirals all rush to change pants, because they know about Logistics.

      1. redleg

        Exactly. US vessels can’t re-load missiles at sea but can refuel and re-provision. How much food, fuel, soap, potable water, and TP is aboard the combat ships? That’s what the support ships carry.

        1. David

          Technically they can reload the VLS missiles at sea. But it takes a long time to load each missile, has to be done in good sea states and they can’t pull away quickly if they come under attack.

          1. Revenant

            My understanding is that this was phased out (support ships to do it decommissioned and or missile launching ship redesigned so not possible ship to ship) and reloading can now only be done in dock.

            1. David

              I think they still have the same supply ships. But they did stop doing it though I guess in theory they could. But crews may not be trained for it.

              For a period they had a small crain on the warships by the VLS launchers. They’d lift the missles off the supply ship onto the warship quite quickly and then the warships small crane could load the missiles into the launchers. But it mever achieved the speed it was designed to. So the cranes were removed in favour of a few extra launchers.

              This left going to ports woth deducated facilities. The newest adapation is using supply ships but doing it at a suitable size of port. But it at least means it doesn’t need to have the facilities at the port.

              It should be said every major navy has moved from traditional launchers to vls systems. They allow far more flexibility in load outs and firing order, and can also get all the missiles in the air far quicker. But with the downside of the long time to reload. But it would appear nost navies have decided that id an acceptable trade off.

          1. David

            I’ve been hearing rumours that the toilet issues on the Ford are due to sabotage by the crew. The Ford is heading towards the longest operational tour for a carrier since Vietnam. And apparently a lot of the crew are not liking that. If this really is caused by a significsnt level of sabotage by the crew that is an even bigger issue than a faulty ship.

  37. Tom Stone

    This is a desperate move by both Israel and Trump and to me it answers the question of whether the Israeli’s had Kompromat on Trump.
    Perhaps the allegation that Trump raped a 13 year old has a basis in fact…and can be substantiated.
    Both the Zionists and Trump domestically have apparently decided that it is now or never, Trump to formally become King and Israel to dominate the Mid East.
    I do not believe that they will succeed in their aims, but there will be a huge amount of damage done, mostly to the innocent, as usual.
    These are not the actions of rational actors, something to keep in mind because it is going to get much uglier and much crazier.
    Fill your gas tank, keep extra cash on hand if you can and let your representatives know your feelings, loudly.

  38. Yves Smith Post author

    1. hemeantwell

      Shahed-136 drones are hitting Tel Aviv at this early stage of the war? IIRC during the 12 Day War the early interception rate, at least as claimed by the Israelis, was quite high. Impact videos were almost always of Iran’s more sophisticated missiles. Failure to contain Shaheds will push Israel up the escalation ladder more rapidly.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        If true, that means Israel was not very successful in reconstituting its air defenses. Many thought that was likely.

        Iran would be sending cheaper stuff otherwise.

        1. David

          Unless Iran used up a lot of their chepaer stuff the last time and their factories have concentrated on the newer kit.

          1. Yves Smith Post author

            Reports are that the slow Shaheed drones are getting through rather a lot for this stage in the war. I have a comment late in the current thread with 4 tweets, some of which suggest that.

      2. vao

        Let us try an alternative explanation: during the 12-days war, Iran first sent the cheap, older missiles and drones (to exhaust the defence as well as to detect its locations) before striking with the “real stuff”. The Israelis, assuming Iran is resorting to the same trick, are now avoiding the utilization of their best AA defence, reserving it for the later, more dangerous incoming blows.

        Which actually leads to the same conclusion as Yves: Israel did not manage to refill its arsenals with enough AA missiles.

        Either Israel wants to shoot down everything right from the start — but does not succeed, even against the slow, low-tech stuff, because there are not enough AA ammunition in its inventory;

        or Israel is resignated to endure devastation now by the slow, low-tech stuff — because it is desperately trying to spare whatever AA ammunition is in its inventory for even worse attacks later on.

        1. .Tom

          I had the same thought. It could be a tactical choice to let the drones through and reserve their limited AD for the more threatening missiles expected later.

        2. DGE

          But if Israel does that, what’s to stop the low-tech drones and missiles to hit the things they were hoping to protect in later waves?

          1. vao

            My guess is that they think they can sacrifice some vulnerable above ground facilities to the low-tech drones in the hope of protecting crucial assets below ground from heavier, faster, penetrating advanced Iranian balistic missiles with much higher kinetic energy.

            For instance, I remember something about the Israeli military having installed its central command in a bunker below a hospital during the 12-days war.

    2. Mark Gisleson

      I just watched video of the Foreign Minister responding to the strikes and his body language was extremely relaxed and casual. Without saying so, he almost seemed pleased that we had struck the first blow.

        1. debug

          ROFL! Guffaw! You win the internet today!

          Thanks for the coverage. MSM is pitiful today, even more than usual, if you can believe it.

        2. ambrit

          Ouch! Were Wirkoff and Kushner the sort of real estate agents showcased in David Mamet’s “Glen Garry Glen Ross?”
          “Here’s a list of ‘prospects’ for our new sales project, Rio Gaza.”
          “Oh s–t! Not the Patels!”
          Stay safe, in four easy payments.

  41. Judith

    From Thomas Fazi’s substack.

    “Why the US and Israel are attacking Iran
    Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi explains the real reason the US and Israel are targeting Iran: “This is a doctrine of domination… It is the enforcement of permanent inequality”

    If you want to understand why the US and Israel are attacking and attempting to subjugate Iran, you must read this historic speech by Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, delivered earlier this month at the 16th Al Jazeera Forum held in Doha:”

    https://www.thomasfazi.com/p/why-the-us-and-israel-are-attacking

  42. Yves Smith Post author

    Oh, if true, the really big gun came out:

    3. Acacia

      Multiple sources now reporting this, albeit still “unconfirmed” e.g.:

      Iran’s revolutionary guards tell ships passage through Strait of Hormuz ‘not allowed’, EU naval mission official says
      https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-tell-ships-passage-through-strait-hormuz-not-allowed-2026-02-28/

      Feb 28 (Reuters) – An official from the European Union’s naval mission Aspides said on Saturday that vessels have been receiving VHF transmission from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards saying “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz”.
      The strait is the world’s most vital oil export route, which connects the biggest Gulf oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
      The official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Iran had not formally confirmed any such order. Tehran has for years threatened to block the narrow waterway in retaliation for any attack on the Islamic Republic.

      Come Monday, Mr. Market could really have a sad.

            1. Yves Smith Post author

              Well I was anticipating this war for so long that it’s not like the return will be boast-worthy. But this was coming and so at least a hedge of sorts.

          2. amfortas

            aye. for the first time in i dont know how many years, i actually filled up the gas tank on the truck…as well as filled 20 gallons worth of gascans.
            told the boys to do the same…and for youngest, currently in lubbock at texas tech, to spend the money to buy a gas can, then fill the damned thing…so he can get home if worst comes to worst.

            1. Wukchumni

              I’m going to go out on the limb, and state that nobody on here has any more gas than what’s in the tanks of their vehicles, oh a few might have an extra 5 or 10 gallons, but who has several hundred gallons?

              It’s our one glaring weakness as individuals, the inability to store a most important thing in our lives.

              First gas lines in the USA happened in response to the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

              3. Screwball

                1973. I remember it well. As a junior in high school working in a gas station and rationing of gas was not on my bingo card.

                We had lines down the street. Once we pumped X amount of gas we had to close. How do you tell the next guy sorry, no gas for you?

                Just checking to make sure my memory was right (old and stupid) I found this little tidbit;

                Oil prices jumped significantly, with the average price of imported oil in the U.S. more than doubling to $6.92 per barrel by January 1974.

                $6.92 a barrel. Wow! Some places might see that for a gallon next week if this goes long and the wrong way.

                More reason to not like these people.

              4. David

                Petrol starys going bad after 3 to 6 months. After 13 it’s not advisable to use it. Should work in the engine but you’ll start causing damage to it. Not to mention storing several hundred gallons of a highly flammable liquid at home is not the best idea.

                1. Yves Smith Post author

                  Yes, this is a key point made during the big price surge in 2008, that oil actually does not store very well save keeping it in the ground.

                  But this detail is very helpful.

                  1. David

                    It’s not so much that oil doesn’t keep well but that the refined products don’t. And largley from the various additives that are included that help engines run smoother. It’s one of these things that if yoy were desperate you’d do it. But you are going to get a big mechanics bill soon.

                    1. amfortas

                      theres a product called ‘stabil’ that you add to yer gascans that are gonna be stored…like over winter.
                      my local mechanic buddies say its legit, so i use it.
                      a lil dab’ll do ya.
                      diesel keeps better, frm what i can tell…and kerosene, aside from being hydrophilic, keeps really well. just keep the latter 2 airtight in shade…and for kerosene, you can pour the fuel into another can and leave the water(or maybe its the other way around,lol)…and the watery kerosene mixture is still just fine for starting a fire.

                2. Wukchumni

                  Oh, its got so many things going against it, for an average person to store a few hundred gallons of gas at home, so nobody does it.

                  That means we all have the shortest leash on life, liberty and the pursuit of driving, should things get stupider than imaginable.

                3. Buzz Meeks

                  Extend life of fuel by using fuel conditioner/ stabilizer. Don’t know if I can recommend by name the brand I use, which is also an ethanol neutralizer. Marine Green. Have gone up to a year plus with no problems in either vehicle or power equipment.

                4. Peter Steckel

                  One can add chemicals, such as “Stabil”, to the gas to extend its useable life by about 6 months. I’ve run 1.5 year old non-ethanol gas (secured with Stabil) through 2 cycle engines (think weed whackers and blowers) and it was “useable” but that is straining the definition. The engine would sputter and cough intermittently but it operated. I would not recommend it for a car.

                  Besides, who has a 500 gallon tank on their land? Who has 100 gallon tanks to load in to a pick up truck to get filled up? At best, folks are pissing in the wind. . .

                  1. David

                    One other aspect is theft. I live out in thr countryside and their are lots of houses with heating oil tanks and LPG tanks. Talking to a guy i know following the invasion of Ukraine and the massive increases in fuel oil costs led to a lot of theft incidents.

                    The worst of it was people would drill a hole in the tank, fill up whatever container they had with them and then leave the rest if the tank to leak out.

              5. Retired Carpenter

                Wuk,
                Storing everal hundred gallons of gas? IMO the average suburbanite would burn down their house/shed/barn if they had more than one jerrycan of gasoline. Storing large volumes of gasoline safely requires special tanks, a proper dispenser and a bunch of stabilizers, especially for storing the crap with 10% ethanol.
                Nah, we will just drive less and pay the premium for having this bunch of “leaders”.

      2. Jason Boxman

        As long as someone is left alive with a sharp stick in Iran, I’m not sure how Trump forcibly reopens the strait. And then you need private actors to play ball and transit the strait. Who’s gonna pay for the insurance risks?

        1. GF

          To put icing on the cake, Egypt should close the Suez Canal due to ongoing military operations in the region. The Yemen should close the south end of the Red Sea. That might get Trump’s attention.

          2. The Rev Kev

            Yemen has already come out with a statement that they are shutting down ship transit through the Red Sea. It’s on like Donkey Kong.

  43. MHE

    One observation: the day Russia launched the SMO, Reddit was overrun by pro-Ukraine posts, accross many subreddits. So far today, reddit is pretty muted regarding the Iran strikes.

    Not sure what it means.

      1. mrsyk

        Agreed. And we got the headline “Board of Peace Launches First War”, for which I will forever be grateful for. I wish I could credit the originator.

  45. matt

    makes me wonder if the trump admins moves 2 secure venezuelan oil earlier this year were an attempt 2 protect themselves from the strait of hormuz being blocked and causing an oil shortage. i just dont know if that would even work, considering venezuelan oil has pretty high sulpur content and higher molecular weight hydrocarbons, requiring specific refining equipment that would take time to design and build.
    i have been hoping for a spike in oil prices for quite some time tho, as i feel it is one of the few things that would force people to lower carbon emissions. (just as the 1973 spike caused people to develop more efficient heat exchanger systems etc.) will be interesting to see how dramatic the change is, and how much it pisses off the average american consumer if the increase in gas prices affects their lives greatly.

    1. Louis Fyne

      if that was the case (which is a reasonable assertion), then DC are full of retards (no surprise), even an infinite supply of Venezuelan crude is no good if there is no excess refinery capacity or tanker capacity in the western hemisphere

    2. Jabura Basadai

      IIRC from comments a while back, there are 3 refiners in the Gulf states that are capable of refining Venezuelan oil –

  47. Pat

    I can only hope that the stupidity and ill considered nature of this choice becomes evident very quickly. The propagandistic nature of our media is clear already. And the lesser known war mongers of Congress are already trying to make a public case for Congress to rubber stamp this illegal and terrorist act.
    Between the Zionist donors and outright rulers of so much of that “August” body, I fully expect most to rubber stamp whatever Johnson and company have already prepared. That is unless this is clearly a bloody disaster. If the public begins to recognize what they are losing in blood and money for an attack that was unprovoked, there may be greater consequences for supporting this than expected. But it has to be before the propaganda truly takes hold and the country gets into America right or wrong mode.

  49. Jokerstein

    Just so everyone understands the reporting you’ll see from the MSM, here is a snippet from “The Life and Death of Colonel Blimp:

    – Message from HQ. War starts at midnight. You have your orders. Tell the men.
    – Tell them to make it like the real thing.
    – What do you mean by the real thing?
    – Divide our losses by 10 and multiply the enemy’s by 20.

  51. ChrisFromGA

    Thanks, Yves, for providing this thread with curated information.

    I promised myself I would stay away from X/Twitter/Telegram. Too many AI fakes, bots, propaganda spreaders, etc. Better to stick here and maybe MoA until the dust settles.

    Now that Paramount is the winner of the Warner Brothers sweepstakes, we can look forward to the same jingoist propaganda delivered by vacuous blondes with Mar-a-lago face on CNN as Fox. I guess though we have a few months before the deal goes through. Maybe CNN is a semi-acceptable source for a little while longer.

    1. Al

      The Intel republic and Intel slava groups on telegram aren’t bad. Seem pretty good about banning bots and filtering out AI posts. Otherwise yeah I stick to MoA, NC and Sonar21.

    2. LawnDart

      Yes, I too expect the full-onslaught of AI-fakery to hit shortly… gotta stick to trusted primary sources from here out.

      Good luck, mods.

    3. Carolinian

      I think CNN was the main reason I dropped cable TV. Leaving aside the content there’s a commercial every five minutes even as we are paying to get it.

      And just back from the store. The hard core GOPpers already have their American flags out. After 9/11 everyone had a US flag out (not me). Therefore the upcoming “flag poll” should be interesting. Has Trump now provoked a civil war, not in Iran, but in this country? My region is Repub but my neighborhood has lots of college professors and Trump haters (while being Ukraine lovers). I try to stay out of it.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        I can definitely see things going pear-shaped here in the US, especially if they can’t keep a lid on the US casualties. I already saw one comment on MoA that a US base in Kuwait was hit and there were fatalities. Taco will try to cover that up, I predict.

        I’m on some group chats with some evangs and they’re all rah-rah let’s bring on the rapture.

      2. amfortas

        yeah. i went to town around 9am central.
        expected lines at the gas pumps, etc…but nothing,lol.
        town was pretty dead, too.
        i did bank…drive thru only on saturday, til noon. 2 pretties behind the glass were all smiles and sunshine.
        feed store…busy(thats why i dont go on saturday), but my eavesdropping only revealed mundane conversations.
        then fave mom and pop gas station/beer store…filled up 20 gal in cans, and the truck…nobody in there at all,lol.
        felt like dawn on sunday morning.
        and yeah, i only offer my opinion on such world events when asked directly, anymores…
        too much stupidity and ignorance…and when disaster happens, righteous indignation and flag waving.
        as i learned after 911, it can get dangerous at such times to be 1. right(lol) and 2. a dissenting voice. they’d rather wallow blissfully in their arrogant jingoism.

        1. mrsyk

          If I’m remembering correctly we had the same ho-hum response at the onset of the twelve day war. I don’t really know what to make of it.

      3. Amateur Socialist

        I’m already thinking back to the 60’s and Vietnam and trying to figure out how to make myself a black armband.

        1. vao

          I associate wearing a black armband to expressing mourning for a relative. What is this as a symbol in relation with the Vietnam war?

          1. lcm

            “Tinker v. Des Moines is a historic Supreme Court ruling from 1969 that cemented students’ rights to free speech in public schools.

            “Mary Beth Tinker was a 13-year-old junior high school student in December 1965 when she and a group of students decided to wear black armbands to school to protest the war in Vietnam. The school board got wind of the protest and passed a preemptive ban. When Mary Beth arrived at school on Dec. 16, she was asked to remove the armband and was then suspended.
            Four other students were suspended as well, including her brother John Tinker and Chris Eckhardt. The students were told they could not return to school until they agreed to remove their armbands. The students returned after the Christmas break without armbands, but in protest, they wore black clothing for the remainder of the school year — and filed a First Amendment lawsuit.“

            https://www.aclu.org/documents/tinker-v-des-moines-landmark-supreme-court-ruling-behalf-student-expression

      4. Robert Gray

        Carolinian
        > … I dropped cable TV. Leaving aside the content there’s a commercial every five minutes
        > even as we are paying to get it [emphasis added].

        Thank you, Carolinian. This was a big puzzlement to me when cable first arrived and one of the main factors causing me to not subscribe. It’s like a tax on a tax. :-(

        1. Fazal Majid

          That’s what people who say “if you’re not paying, you’re the product” don’t get. Corporations love to double-dip and even if you pay, you are still the product/

    4. Jason Boxman

      Yeah, I was glad to see this post; I looked in the middle of the night and was aghast to find it was go time. I mindlessly scrolled Twitter for a hour, but it’s worse than it was during the last attack, X, that is. Without knowing who to follow, it’s just slop and trash.

  53. Al

    I underestimated Iranian resolve. They aren’t holding back their punches this time. And this is only the first day. The Shia lion roars and has unleashed its claws.

  54. voislav

    Ro Khanna is continuing to position himself as the leader of the progressive wing for 2028. He’s been an early mover to oppose Gaza, ICE and now Iran. AOC really dropped the ball with her politicking, I think that she not only missed the moment but completely dropped the ball, I don’t think she’ll ever be a strong presidential candidate.

    2. Michael Fiorillo

      She was never going to be serious candidate, and her continuing tone deafness and deference to the War State insures that.

  55. Yves Smith Post author

    About to turn in. Further sightings from Twitterverse:

    Click through on underlying Lord Bebo post:

    4. AG

      re: Shivan Mahendrarajah´s above post with the 2 images of Qatar radar

      a comment from top of the thread https://t.me/s/Middle_East_Spectator claimed:

      “I regret to inform you that this image, which was uploaded by Israel’s largest outlet Yedioth Ahronoth, is AI.
      Although Iran DID destroy the radar.”

      But that doesn´t make much sense if it was indeed destroyed, or does it?
      By now it won´t matter anyway, I guess.

      2. Dr. Nod

        It’s an obvious fake. Look at the buildings above and below the radar. They are not the same. By uploading an obvious fake, the poster hoped to destroy the credibility of the reports that the radar site was destroyed.

        1. AG

          It is so obviously two different buildings. So I don´t get it either way.

          (But since I have learned that 99% of Ukraine military PR is created by kids in essence – of course who else has time to spare for such BS – no level of incompetence surprises me any more. The so highly educated Western public believes everything as long as it fits its views anyway.)

      1. FlyoverBoy

        Yes, Yves. Thank you. There are so few dependable sources of information on this or pretty much anything else of importance to the regime. Just as in the early days of the pandemic and other crises, you are performing an indispensable service.

  56. Wukchumni

    A friend was in the US army in Germany when the 1973 Yom Kippur War happened, and related that about half of the tanks on hand had been shipped to Israel, in quite a hurry.

    What does Ukraine miss out on, that we’ll be sending to Israel, toot suite?

  57. LawnDart

    Oh crap:

    Israeli minister invokes genocidal ‘Amalek’ call amid war on Iran

    Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir invoked biblical language widely considered as genocidal in comments posted on X about the war on Iran.

    “Blot out the memory of Amalek from under heaven; you shall not forget!” said Ben Gvir, using the same biblical reference Israeli politicians cited at the outset of the Gaza genocide.

    The biblical account of Amalek is often described as genocidal because it calls for the annihilation of an entire people, including men, women and children.

    Now I’m worried.

    2. Cat Burglar

      Things must be getting bad in Tel Aviv if they are back to Amalek — they have to shift blame for something off the political leadership.

      But you search in vain for any reporting on damage to Israel from the war — the Western MSM is conforming to Israeli censorship, without mentioning it is doing so. A Guardian purported military analysis of the war gave a dire outlook for Iran, but entirely avoided mentioning Israel. So there is a big black hole in the reporting.

    1. Carolinian

      The tempo of making things up? There’s no reason to believe anything the Israeli military says.

      Or Iran either. Apparently the report of the bombed school came from them. But bombing schools is more Israel’s style.

      1. mrsyk

        Maybe the opening with a war crime thing is aimed at keeping your partners cooperative throughout the operation.

      2. Acacia

        There’s no reason to believe anything the Israeli military says.

        Indeed. Remember how we were told during the previous attack that the IDF was flying sorties over Iran… except that later we found out they weren’t?

  59. bertl

    Isn’t spitting in the faces of the Constitution and the Congress by deliberately ignoring Amendment 22 simply an act of treason?

    1. chris

      Bold of you to assume that the President needs to ask anyone to do anything they want to do…

      Yeah, I don’t understand it either. How is this happening? Why isn’t Congress having a complete fit right now? Where is the Senate? Why is no one in our government even pretending to argue against this war? With the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, this action has now materially harmed our interests and global trade. How is Mr. Trump allowed to continue on this path without congressional approval?

      1. IEL

        My take has been that Republican congress critters fear MAGA assassins. Stochastic terrorism and all that. “Who will rid me of this troublesome Rep Massie.”

  60. Jason Boxman

    From Aurelien earlier this week, on Western leaders’ lack of understanding of attritional war, but certainly applicable here as well to Trump’s international blunder.

    The examples of western defeats I mentioned earlier (we can add Afghanistan and perhaps Iraq) are also important because they also bring in the dimension of time. The West wants, and expects, quick and clear victories. Its theorists draw what in my opinion is a dangerous distinction between “winning the war” and “winning the peace,” as though these were wholly independent activities. Clausewitz shakes his head irritably at this point, and reminds us that the purpose of a military campaign is always political, and that the campaign is not over until the political objectives are attained or abandoned. And if you have no idea how to attain the political objectives once the major fighting is over, well then maybe you shouldn’t have started the campaign in the first place.

    (bold mine)

    And here there’s clearly no cogent plan for post-regime-change Iran. We just gonna drop some bombs and… win.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Orangutan-man’s maximalist demands (regime change, Iran gives up all ballistic missiles) pretty much guarantee failure here.

      As you said, plan A is “bomb ’em and have them surrender in time for the Sunday night futures to open on Wall Street.”

      When that fails, there is no plan B.

    2. hazelbee

      and now I have an image in my head…

      its like some dumb teenager poking at a hornets nest.

      adult. “so what are you going to do?”

      T “m gonna poke at the nest with my stick”

      adult “and then what ?”

      T: “gonna keep pokin until its just a broken mess. smash. hrrr hrrrr.”.

      a: “you really haven’t thought this through have you? What then?”

    3. NN Cassandra

      Technically, destroying Iranian government without replacing it with something else, therefore destroying Iran as a state, is THE goal. So they do have clear political objectives.

      1. converger

        If turning a modern nation that is half the size of Russia into another Somalia constitutes a clear political objective, we have a bigger problem.

  61. Jason Boxman

    CENTCOM claims no U.S. casualties yet (NY Times; live blog)

    There have been no reports of U.S. casualties or combat related deaths in the twelve hours since the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on a swathe of targets in Iran, U.S. Central Command said in a statement.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      I am highly skeptical. MoA had a comment that a base in Kuwait took a direct hit. Could be fake, but who knows.

      1. David

        A direct hit on a base could be the runway being hit. Not likely to be many standing in the middle of the runway. And it depends on what air raid defences they have for their troops. The troops may be pretty safe while buildings are hit.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Those are good points, but it appears now with the benefit of hindsight that CENTCOM was simply lying. The three US servicemen killed were in Kuwait, so it sounds like they just lied.

    2. elkern

      I wouldn’t be surprised if Iran is intentionally minimizing US casualties, targeting infrastructure rather than troops. In the short run, body bags are likely to increase Americans’ support for more attacks. We get off on revenge, with a vengeance.

      It took years of slowly increasing KIA before US families decided they didn’t really want to see their sons take a one-way ticket to Vietnam.

      1. Expat2uruguay

        I agree with you Elkhern that the Iranians may want to minimize US military casualties to reduce blowback and nuclear risk. I evenwonder if the Iranians will give warning so that US bases can be abandoned before they are destroyed.

        I also hope that when the US and Israel parlay for peace one of Iran’s requirements will be that Israel has to give up it’s nuclear weapons. That would make this the best war ever!!

        1. hk

          I expect the three terms that Iran would demand would be:

          1) denuclearize Israel.
          2) Complete halt to US support of proxies and terrorist organizations–Israel, Jordan, ISIS, etc.
          3) closure of US bases in the ME and withdrawal of US forces and military/intel assets.

          Note that they are mirror image of US demands. There is no way that they will be accepted, but they would serve to set the parameters for the “negotiations” in the long term–the conflict will go on for a long time, with additional missiles and drones flowing to Iran from China and Russia if Iran runs low on their domestic production, with at least “unofficial negotiations” taking place the whole time.

          1. Yalt

            Surely the precise mirror image of US demands would be to demand the denuclearization of the US itself?

            As well as the termination of its ballistic missile capability.

  62. Ben Panga

    Lt Col Karen Kwiatkowski on Mario Nawful’s channel. Interview is frustrating but Kwiatkowski is really good as usual

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGiA6HQbzw4

    A point she makes:

    Trump & Israel do not share the same goals.

    Israel is not aiming for regime change; it’s aiming for “chaos, political angst and political destruction” in Iran.

    BP: Trump has been sold: if you attack, the regime will crumble and you can have a great quick victory. Send missiles/bombs for a few days and then the people will rise up. A quick win.

    Trump’s speech earlier had words roughly saying “stay in your homes, it’ll be dangerous, then come out and seize your country.” I think he believed it would happen this way. Bibi whispering in his ear after Venezuela l…

    I assume the Israelis have good intel showing that few Persians would rise up. I also assume they told Trump the opposite.

    I assume there’s been a lot of CIA/Mossad preparation with the various non-Persian separatist groups, and the plan was that after, say, 72 hours of missiles, the separatists will activate. These could be supported by further American military actions.

    I cannot imagine how that leads to a quick win, but I can imagine a long civil war(ish) outcome.

    A huge mess ensuing from that, leading to instability, balkanisation and chaos would suit Israel but not Trump.

    Who the heck knows what the CIA wants. They seem to like the seeding chaos and balkanisation model.

    ——

    Completely separately is it possible the Supreme Leader was killed? Rumours (aka “reports”) of that came from Israeli channel 12; he was supposed to be “speaking soon” some hours ago but hasn’t afaik; when asked to confirm/deny the Iranian FM spokesman dodged the question, and earlier FM in NBC said he was ok “as far as I know”. Lot of other interpretations I guess: deliberate ambiguity from Iran; he’s in a very secret place and they genuinely don’t know etc

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I can’t sleep….so…I agree on Mario Nawful. I saw him interview Glenn Diesen earlier and his questions had a lot of assumptions embedded in them that were either wrong or a bit skewed, which made it hard for Diesen to answer them in a straightforward manner.

    2. Ben Panga

      Adding: Netanyahu just gave a televised address.

      Per Guardian

      Netanyahu says airstrikes have destroyed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound and adds that “all indications show this tyrant is no longer with us”.

      BP: Doesn’t make it true of course

      (I’m in the same time zone as Yves and also can’t sleep. Surrendered to it and made coffee)

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        Araghchi said otherwise.

        And in any event, Khamenei is not running the war and said he was prepared to die. But killing him is likely to lead to the declaration of a fatwa, and even more outrage and determination to pummel Israel

        1. Ben Panga

          Nitpicking: Araghi said “as far as I know” I think. Agree with your second part very much. Zionists love decapitation strikes but do not grasp that other societies may be less dependent on particular individuals.

          Fwiw Reuters live blog now reporting the Israelis being definitive about it.

          “Khamenei is dead and his body has been found, senior Israeli official tells Reuters”

          1. AG

            Now Iranian TV allegedly confirmed death.
            Of course this could offer Trump an exit.
            But I fear the Iranians not gonna let go even if he wanted to.
            As the Guard´s Commander said, Iran decides how this will go on. Maybe it´s the trap that now snapped.

      2. Polar Socialist

        Even if Israel managed to get everyone they so eagerly claim they got, it doesn’t seem to make much of a difference – according to ITGC Iran has already launched 1200 drones and missiles toward Israel and US targets. That’s almost as many as they launched during the 12 day war (1550).

        1. amfortas

          yeah, they have a deep back bench, by design…as does hamas, hezbollah, and houthi.
          this a strategic thing that they have all been taught by the west’s belligerence.
          take out one, another is ready to step in…and anyways, ive been reading that the ayatollah isnt even in command…ie;not commander in chief like we supposedly do.
          instead, theres a war council…reminds one of the war chief concept in native american and other historical tribal societies.
          (including the frelling iliad,lol)

    3. lyman alpha blob

      This one from earlier today has Zionist media claiming Khamenei was killed – https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/breaking-israel-reportedly-believes-iran-143414156.html

      Al Mayadeen reports Iranian FM said the opposite – https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/araghchi–sayyed-khamenei–president-pezeshkian-are-safe

      Quick glance at CNN shows them quoting the Iranian FM too. Fox News says maybe, claiming his residence was hit but it was unclear if he was there at the time.

      1. Ben Panga

        TimesofIsrael (just now)

        Channel 12 news reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was shown an image of the body of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, after it was recovered by Iranian authorities from his compound in Tehran.

        Israel carried out a massive strike on Khamenei’s compound in the opening salvo of attacks on Iran this morning.

        Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter has updated American officials that Israel had succeeded in killing Khamenei, a source familiar with the matter tells The Times of Israel, confirming reporting in the Axios news site.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Only a person as stupid as Trump or Netanyahu would think that killing an 87 yo man who is the spiritual leader, not the military or political one, would make a damn bit of difference. Other than possibly riling up the people of Iran to launch a ground war on Saudi Arabia or Israel.

    4. matt

      I’m a bit too uneducated to give a good answer about khameni’s death, but i do think it’ll be interesting to see the war of information play out! Like i wonder if the israelis will accuse any khameni videos of being deepfakes etc. george orwell spoke of this in homage to catalonia.

  63. Tom Stone

    Neither Trump or the Zionists are rational actors, not a comforting thought.
    Do let any Evangelists in your circles know that they should sign up with “Rapture Pet Rescue” before it is too late!

  65. Wukchumni

    Wars used to be pretty simple, get the other guy’s land & infrastructure, his wealth, farm animals, and subjugate them to be under new ownership.

    What do you get out of a war where each adversary is blowing up the other side’s infrastructure on a piecemeal basis from oh so far away?

    1. David

      War has never been simple. Not ever. And oretty much all wars have resulted in the opponents infrastructure (including crops and farm animals) being destroyed and being no use to the conqueror.

      1. restive

        According to Barbara Tuchman in A Distant Mirror, the real reason for the Crusades was a plan hatched by the pope and the French king to get the knights out of the country. Absent a foreign enemy the knights pillaged and plundered their fellow citizens. Farmers and shopkeepers complained that before they could establish a business or harvest a crop the knights rampaged through and torched their efforts. The Crusades were a way, at least for the French, to inflict their own homicidal lunatics on unsuspecting foreigners to give their domestic economy a chance to survive.
        .

    2. vao

      In the The History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides, the description of military operations time and again ends with a sentence stating that the city walls of the enemy were levelled and the trees in its orchards cut down — plus a makeshift monument erected in situ to commemorate the military feat.

      1. David

        Exactly. The Romans salted the fuelds of carthage after victory. The English launced chevauchée during the hundred years war to destroy the economic basis for french resistance (destroying farms, burning down villages).

  66. LawnDart

    Might the US experience cyber-attacks shortly?

    Personally, I’ve gone to DEFCON 3‐- just in case grids are affected.

  67. dougie

    Imma FAFO what 18k-ish hockey fans think about an old man who refuses to stand for the pre-game national anthem in Raleigh, NC tonight.

  68. Yves Smith Post author

    Since I am having trouble sleeping, you get a fresh dose of info-porn from Twitter:

    Click through for detail”

    Again please click through:

    2. JohnnyGL

      Keep in mind, with regard to the straits of Hormuz, Iran isn’t out of cards to play. They haven’t hit Qatari or Saudi oil infrastructure. If they want to really choke the life out of the world economy, they can escalate further.

  69. Yves Smith Post author

    Additional info-porn:

    Please click through:

    1. Jason Boxman

      CNN now also reporting he’s dead, per Israel

      Iran’s supreme leader killed in strikes, Israeli sources say (CNN)

      Israel has confirmed that Iran’s supreme leader was killed in strikes on Saturday, according to two Israeli sources familiar with the matter.

      One of the sources said Israel had obtained a photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s dead body. The second source said an official announcement is being prepared.

      Earlier in the evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there are many signs that Khamenei is “no longer with us.”

      Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that Iran’s president and Supreme Leader are “safe and sound.” But Khamenei has not been seen in public or in videos since the strikes began.

      1. XXYY

        I assume this is horseshit. In any event, Israel better hope it’s horseshit, since if it isn’t, the result is going to be a much more determined Iranian and allied population, much the same as if Iran had assassinated the US president and the Pope on the same day. Recall the change in attitude in the US when a foreign power just (!) knocked down a couple of buildings in 2001.

        I don’t think pissing off the enemy population is a good wartime tactic, neither do I take assassinating foreign leaders does anything productive for the post-war environment. Ensuring that the enemy population hates and distrusts you beyond measure is not going to lead anywhere good.

      2. hk

        Israelis (and, apparently, we, the new Romans) didn’t learn anything from what happened with that Jesus person, it seems.

      3. TimhH

        “Israel had obtained a photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s dead body”.

        That does not sound credible.

  70. Wukchumni

    Peace experts were already dubious of Benedict Donald winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Medal, based on him bombing Nigeria on Christmas Day last year, and it was initially thought that it wouldn’t hinder his chances in this year’s awards, but shit happens.

  71. chuck roast

    I just tuned in to MOA. Lots of shrill from Mr. & Mrs. Medulla Oblongata. I’ll tune back in here after Yves has her nap. Cheers!

  72. Robert Gray

    I’ve watched Scott Ritter a couple of times today — with Prof. Diesen and with Mario Nawfal (where he Ritter got a bit agitated :-) — and he stressed the point that since the US has now committed to regime change in Iran, anything short of that is a loss and a humiliation. He said that, for Iran, as long as they don’t lose, they win.

    Looking back at the 12-day war last summer, I believe that, whatever the MSM propaganda might have been. reading between the lines it was clearly the case that Israel ran out of defenses and called upon Big Daddy [USA] to ‘make it stop’. For their own reasons, the Iranians agreed and … it stopped. Now, however, it appears that this time Iran is much better prepared and equipped for a longer battle.

    I’m wondering … what happens if, after 12 days or whatever, the Israelis are again beaten and want to sue for peace BUT the Iranians are riding high? If, after enduring so much aggression, the Iranians feel themselves ahead in the contest, what could the Americans and Israelis offer them to agree to a cease fire? In other words, if the Iranians win this, what do they get out of it?

    1. XXYY

      Ritter actually talked about this at some length on one of his interviews. His point was that since this has become an existential war for Iran, they need to take things as far as they can possibly do it, to the point where Israel and the US are not going to resume the war in the future. Anything less than that outcome will just be giving the US and Israel time to rearm and get ready for the next war.

      I have been trying to think about what this actually means. Easier for Israel, where basically means destroying Netanyahu’s government and making it possible to elect a government that is not going to get Israel into the same mess in the future. So it’s “regime change” of a small, weak country within missile range of Iran, one which has no particular strategic need to attack Iran or anywhere else outside its borders.

      What does it mean for the US? Easy enough to and Trump’s presidency, that’s probably already done. But historically, the US has been very intent on control of the Middle East regardless of who is in the White House. However, I’m thinking maybe that generation of neocons is dying out in the US, and the strategic role of oil is changing and perhaps fading, hopefully meaning that the US will be less monomaniacal when it comes to the Middle East. Recent US military adventures have turned out uniformly bad, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere, so getting the US to the point where it won’t try to invade Iran again seems like at least a possible outcome of this war, especially if there are a lot of US casualties and the writing is clearly on the wall about future military action (cf Vietnam). China and Russia may also be helpful in deterring future US invasions.

      So Ritter’s take, I think, is it there is no percentage in Iran stopping the war at the behest of the US or Israel now that it is fully underway, and they are now going to see it through to the bitter end, much as Russia is doing in Ukraine.

    2. amfortas

      the samson directive.
      unless iran has taken out wherever the nukes are.
      apparently a news blockade by israel.

      otherwise, were i iran…and given the long history of iran vs usaisrael…id settle for nothing less than the eradication of the zionist entity….and, if i could get er done, the removal of usa military infrastructure from the entire region.
      this seems strategically obvious, to me.

      oh…and if iran has them, they should release the vids of trump raping children, just for good measure.

      because fuck all this.
      i hate my country…because i am a patriot. and my country’s behavior…lo, these last 80+ years…is atrocious.
      past time we were knocked down and sent into the corner to contemplate our crimes.

      4. Patience is its own reward? Sod that.

        > past time we [USA] were knocked down and sent into the corner
        > to contemplate our crimes.

        I am as anti-zionist as anyone and anti-US neocon neoimperialism, etc., etc. I am an old man and I have been waiting a lifetime for the Americans to get their comeuppance. My cynicism is thick but despite myself every once in a while a bit of hope rises to the surface; and every time it is dashed.

        Naturally, unsurprisingly, the Iranians are saying a lot of angry things. They vow revenge and retribution. They promise extreme measures against Israel and the USA. But can we who support their cause (albeit from afar) dare to hope or will we just suffer yet another bitter disappointment if we do? We recall all too well that Saddam Hussein also talked a big game — and look what it got him.

  73. Rabbit

    Arab leaders who support the US or Israel might have a price to pay for that. Their own people are on the side of Iran.

  74. Acacia

    The Atlantic:

    War With Iran Has Begun. Where Does It End?
    https://archive.md/AXq5w (depaywalled)

    How long war lasts—and where it leads Iran—is not up to just Trump or Israel. The fate of a war Trump sees as shaping his legacy is now in the hands of both the regime and the people inside Iran.

    “I feel lucky”

  75. LawnDart

    Re; dana on X

    Why does the summary in that post read/sound so much like ChatGPT?

    Seriously, I read it twice before concluding that there is no way a human wrote this– I mean, no human writes like that!

    I’m not trying to be a crank, and I don’t doubt the general truthfulness of the post, but the analysis feels mushy.

  76. LawnDart

    Air India is cancelling flights to the US and major European cities:

    “As part of our continuing assessment of the evolving situation in the Middle East, in the interest of the safety and security of our guests and staff, Air India has cancelled the following flights scheduled on 01 March 2026:

    https://x.com/airindia/status/2027787231964917996

  77. Jason Boxman

    Trump is now mentioning possible “off ramps”.

    Iran operation can ‘go long’ or end ‘in two or three days’ – Trump (BBC)

    There are several options for “off ramps” to de-escalation after the US’ military operation in Iran, Donald Trump says.

    “I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians: ‘See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding [your nuclear programme],'” he tells Axios.

    It’s the first time the US president has commented on the operation since announcing the strikes on Saturday morning.

    He says he finally took the decision to green-light the strikes due to the lack of progress over nuclear negotiations this week.

    “The Iranians got close and then pulled back — close and then pulled back. I understood from that that they don’t really want a deal,” he says, according to the US outlet, which says they spoke to Trump for five minutes over the phone.

    1. Glen

      Unfortunately I think this will go long, and Trump will have little control over it. This will not end like the 12 day war.

      Even a dumb a$$ like me listened to what Iran kept saying over, and over, and over. What did Trump think Iran was going to do? He must be getting horrible advice, and he’s just never been the sharpest tool in the Epstein class shed.

      I’ll calm down at some point, but gotta blow off some steam right now (really NSFW):

      F*** Everyone Who Made This War Possible
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iO2DqS8tfR8

    1. begob

      Cheers. Not going to clog the thread with links, so just quoting this statement featured on that account:

      Statement No. 4 of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

      – In the fifth wave of the “Tru Promise 4” operation, the MSP ship, which was tasked with transporting ammunition to American ships in Jebel Ali port, was hit by four drones and completely disabled due to the resulting damage and explosions.

      – We targeted the American naval base in the Abdullah Al Mubarak area of Kuwait with four ballistic missiles and 12 drones, which led to the destruction of its main infrastructure and caused a number of deaths and injuries among American forces.

      – An MST-class combat support ship, which was tasked with supplying American ships with fuel in the Indian Ocean region, was hit by Iranian “Quds 380” missiles.

      So 2 logistics ships … maybe.

      1. nyleta

        Isn’t the MST a mobile ship target ? They are missile training and correction ships capable of full remote control about 230 ft long, there are only two but would have been correcting missile fire here ln combat support mode without putting people at risk.

    2. begob

      Just been going through Thomas Keith’s posts via nitter (@iwasnevrhere_) – plenty of vids of Iran delivering big hits (you can watch them by right-clicking to open in new tab). They don’t seem artificial.

      The sky over Tel Aviv sounds like hell thunder. Very big explosion in Bahrain. And something burning hard in Jebel Ali port.

        1. lyman alpha blob

          Some crazy stuff in those posts. This is supposedly from Kit Klarenberg –

          “Unconfirmed reports of Khameini being dead are to distract from Satanyahoo having fled the entity for Cyprus, getting rejected, and having to resort to seeking refuge in Berlin. This is a complete (and wholly predictable) disaster for the pigdogs.”

          That doesn’t sound like the way Klarenberg normally writes, but maybe he’s a little looser on social media than in his articles. But if the videos he posts are accurate, Iran is doing some serious damage to the Zionist entity.

  79. ChrisFromGA

    Not so fast (cross-posted from MoA)

    The Chinese news agency Xinhua, citing the Iranian Foreign Ministry, reported that Ayatollah Khamenei is alive and safe. A little earlier, the Iranian Foreign Ministry also said on TV that Ayatollah Khamenei is alive, and the fake news about his death is part of the information and psychological war. A spokesman for Khamenei’s office also said that the leader of Iran continues to lead the country and reports of his death are lies.

    1. marcel

      If he dies, he becomes a “martyr”, and his passing would be announced & confirmed by the Iranian government, as they did for all others.
      So, not true until confirmed by Iran.
      And without any impact on the war.

      1. ocypode

        It’s obviously symbolic, but I don’t get why people are fixating so much on Khamenei. He does not run the country. He’s an old man whom killing would make a sacred martyr. Even if he is dead, what difference does it make besides the possibility of the declaration of holy war? The missiles and drones sure don’t seem to care either way. Have people got their brain addled from too many movies where taking out the “bad guy” ends the war?

        2. cfraenkel

          I’d say it’s more the western leadership and press have been talking that line for so long they’ve started to believe it.

          (a couple of years ago, I’d have said that they’ve been talking that line for so long they think they need to fool their audience to maintain credibility. Now, I think they’re just that deluded.)

        3. Sibiriak

          “Even if he is dead, what difference does it make… ? ”

          Helps Trump build a pretext for halting the war: ” I’ve killed one of the most evil people in History…”.

          1. urdsama

            And give Iran a huge cause for continuing it.

            I think at this point one should realize Trump is not in charge…

        4. Fazal Majid

          Iran is the only country in the world where the judicial branch outweighs the executive and legislative, and that’s what Khamenei is, the supreme judge and one-man supreme court of Shia Islamic law, which is the same as civil law. There are plenty of others in Qom, and a successor might rescind his fatwa declaring nuclear weapons haram, forbidden.

          1. ocypode

            So a realistic scenario is that Khamenei gets replaced with a much more stringent hardliner and thus the war is self-defeating in its official purpose. Not much strategy, it seems.

    1. Alan Sutton

      I was wondering how long it would take for the desalination plants to be destroyed.

      Seems like the most certain and quickest way of making Israel completely unsustainable.

      I’m sad to admit that that news, if true, has cheered me up greatly.

      Oh and by the way, thank you very much Yves for your superb efforts. I went straight past the ABC and BBC and came straight here where I knew the news would be most reliable.

  81. Jason Boxman

    Larry Johnson on Judge suggests Trump will be impeached for an illegal war; mentioned this war is likely to go on for a month. I guess we’ll see the domestic political repercussions for this. Johnson says this is the end of Trump’s presidency. One can only hope.

  82. ex-PFC Chuck

    Apparently, Netanyahu decided not to wait. The strike on Iran was carried out before the Americans had completed the mobilization and preparations.

    Trump is now lashing out. He was drawn into the war before he was ready. It’s not turning out to be a pretty picture, and there’s no going back now.

    Sprinter Press

    1. ChrisRUEcon

      HUGE if true … but not that unsurprising. Whether it’s Epstein kompromat, or the reality of Trump’s ability to act with impunity, Bibi knew he didn’t have to wait, because (short term) there would be no political penalty for acting unilaterally.

      Wot. A. Familyblog. Sh**. Show

    1. Old Jake

      Indeed, this would have been high on my list too, along with any Zionist nuclear facilities. Though perhaps some softening up would precede

    1. Jason Boxman

      Trump is now claiming that he is dead per BBC.

      “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead,” US President Donald Trump writes on Truth Social.

      We’ll see if assassinating religious leaders has the intended effect they expect it to.

      1. erstwhile

        Chutzpah is all trump got. He stands front and center in the front row of the epstein class picture, a sick malevolent grin on his orange hide of a face. IMHO, the worst public figure in all of american history, and that’s saying a lot.

      2. hk

        “According to the traditions of the Greek Orthodox Church, our prelates are hanged and not shot. Please respect our traditions!” (Greek Archbishop Damaskinos to the Nazis)

        I wonder if the Shia have something similar about their prelates, given their own history of persecution.

  87. Ex-PFC Chuck

    “BREAKING: U.S. Navy says it can’t protect all merchant ships in Persian Gulf after Iran strikes. Oil majors just suspended shipments through Hormuz, 21M barrels/day at risk.”

    gCaptain

  91. Kouros

    My two cents delivered to PM Carney and his Foreign Affairs Minister this afternoon:

    Prime Minister Carney,

    You delivered a speech in Davos just six weeks ago that I am certain your communications team is enormously proud of. You invoked Václav Havel. You spoke of the courage required to “take the sign out of the window.” You lectured the world about “living within a lie” and the moral bankruptcy of performing compliance with a system one privately knows to be false.
    Today, from the comfortable distance of Mumbai, while U.S. and Israeli forces bomb a sovereign nation, you put the sign straight back in the window. The ink on your Davos speech was barely dry.
    Let us be specific about what you have endorsed. The United States and Israel have launched an unprovoked military attack on a sovereign state — an act of aggression that is illegal under the UN Charter, which Canada claims as a cornerstone of its “principled” foreign policy. You were, by your own admission, forewarned. You said you had “discussions over recent weeks” with Trump officials about the possibility of these strikes. You did not alert Parliament. You did not consult Canadians. You simply endorsed it, from halfway around the world, as a done deal. Is this what “living the truth” looks like?
    Now, to the substance of your justifications — because they deserve to be examined rather than simply absorbed, which is apparently what you expect of Canadians.
    You call Iran “the principal source of instability and terror throughout the Middle East.” This is a talking point, not an analysis. The United States’ own intelligence and security agencies have, for years running, identified Sunni extremist organizations — not Iran, not Shia militias — as responsible for the overwhelming preponderance of global terrorist attacks, consistently accounting for over 90% of casualties from international terrorism. If you are genuinely committed to ending “state-sponsored terrorism,” one wonders why you have nothing to say about the documented support Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies — with whom Canada maintains warm, commercially lucrative relationships — have historically provided to those very Sunni extremist networks. But of course, those governments buy Canadian weapons. So the sign stays in the window for them.
    You insist Iran must never be permitted to enrich uranium. What you omit is that uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes is a sovereign right explicitly enshrined in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty — a treaty Iran has signed and remained within, and whose inspections regime it has operated under in ways that, according to IAEA reporting, do not confirm weaponization. Canada, incidentally, maintains its own civilian nuclear program and enriches nuclear materials. So does virtually every nation with a functioning nuclear energy sector. The objection, then, is not to enrichment per se. The objection is to Iranian sovereignty. Call it what it is.
    You speak of Iran’s “authoritarian and theocratic” governance as disqualifying it from the protections of international law — a position that is legally incoherent and, frankly, embarrassing in its selectivity. Israel’s Nation-State Basic Law formally establishes that the right of national self-determination in Israel “is unique to the Jewish people” — making it, by any plain reading, an ethno-religious state enshrined in law. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Gallant. The ICJ has found a plausible case of genocide and has issued provisional measures orders that Israel has been found to be non-compliant with. Canada has said and done essentially nothing meaningful in response, and has continued to provide political cover to a government that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians, systematically dismantled civilian infrastructure in Gaza, expanded illegal settlements in the West Bank at an accelerating pace throughout this period, and done so with impunity precisely because governments like yours refuse to apply the standards you claim to uphold.
    You reaffirm Israel’s “right to defend itself” — a phrase so emptied of meaning through selective application that it has become a ritual incantation rather than a legal principle. The right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter applies to armed attacks from other states, not to the use of nuclear-capable military force against a sovereign nation’s civilian infrastructure and leadership. What is happening today is not self-defence. It is a military offensive, co-launched with the United States, against a country that has not attacked either of them in the conventional sense your legal justification would require.
    And the Arab monarchies — the Gulf states whose authoritarian, gender-apartheid systems you have never once criticized with the same vigour you reserve for Iran — are not mentioned in your statement. Women in Saudi Arabia were only recently permitted to drive. Migrant workers in Qatar, where Canada recently signed a “strategic partnership,” die building infrastructure under conditions that multiple human rights bodies have described as forced labour. But these governments are transactionally useful. So again — the sign stays in the window.
    Canada has had no diplomatic relations with Iran since the Harper government severed them in 2012, a decision driven substantially by a Foreign Affairs Committee whose chair was a member of the Canadian Friends of Israel — a fact that was apparently unremarkable to anyone in official Ottawa at the time. The Iranian government’s properties in Canada were seized. Sanctions were imposed. And through all of it, Canadian public broadcasting provided its audiences with a remarkably uniform, uncontested narrative about Iran — one that virtually never included the voices of Iranian scholars, legal experts, or anyone who might offer context that complicates the story. That is not journalism. That is state-adjacent information management.
    You told the World Economic Forum that “the power of the less powerful starts with honesty.” You said Canada would stop exempting allies from the scrutiny it applies to rivals. You said Canada would apply “the same standards to allies and rivals.”
    Mr. Carney, you have not done that. Not today, not in your statement, and not in any meaningful act of Canadian foreign policy in living memory on this file.
    Canadians are not, in fact, asked their views on foreign policy. There was no debate. There was no parliamentary vote. There was no public consultation. There was a press statement issued from Mumbai endorsing an act of war, and an instruction to Canadians in the region to shelter in place — a logistical afterthought to a decision that was apparently made for us.
    You quoted Havel. Let me offer you one in return. The Czech dissident also wrote that “the tragedy of modern man is not that he knows less and less about the meaning of his own life, but that it bothers him less and less.”
    I hope this matters to you. The evidence of today suggests it does not.

    A Canadian citizen who is not a sheep

  92. Ex-PFC Chuck

    “I am a diplomatic aide in the Sultanate of Oman’s I am a diplomatic aide in the Sultanate of Oman’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. . . Since January, Oman has been mediating indirect talks between the United States and Iran on Iran’s nuclear program. The talks were held in Muscat and in Geneva. The Americans would sit in one room. The Iranians would sit in another room. I would walk between them. My Fitbit says I averaged fourteen thousand steps on negotiation days. . .

    A must-read insider report on how close the negotiations came to agreement and who blew them up at the very end.

    1. MicaT

      If true then the I see two possible reasons. One is the Iranians actually thought it was a way out. Don’t believe it for a second or two, they knew the war was coming and so they have a great true story that says they agreed to zero enrichment and the US bombed them anyway. It proves it was never about zero enrichment but about a government change.
      Re listen to Trump at the state of the union. He lays it all out.

    1. skippy

      Enjoyed this – China pulse 🇨🇳
      @Eng_china5
      Fairmont Palm Jumeirah hotel in Dubai received a one-star review from guests for failing to intercept an Iranian missile attack.

      On that note … I ponder the fallout of consumers[tm] that are exposed to this Westren aligned military adventurism e.g. bites their lifestyles/business expectations. I really cant see any positives for the US/Israel side in a prolonged conflict of attrition. Nor does it seem its opening salvo has caused the splashy critical damage used for click bait and chest thumping. Just the opposite, Iran has hit multiple critical targets over a multinational area at the same time. Mixed up its deployment of ballistics [no confirmation of any hypersonics] vs its 12 day war method – sent in ballistics first this time and then drones.

      I also wonder how things have changed/evolved since the 12 day war with the assistance of Russia/China. I mean Russia has been impressive in its evolution from battlefield experience and then upgrading equip/kill chains, especially in data time, observation and then response both on the battlefield/Mfg/software updates. Seems some of these ballistic missiles are giving the air defenses a hard time compared to previous performance. Not to mention the absence of US/Israeli Air Force anywhere near Iran’s boarders with a side of the fleet backing off after its initial attack.

      Otherwise the one thing I have not seen that was a huge point in previous conflicts, since the first ME war is its ROI. How those funds could be better spent at home for socially productive use – not one peep now. I mean all Iran needs is a stalemate and the West/Israel still loses ….

    2. ThirtyOne

      A maneuvering ballistic missile perhaps?
      lifted from reddit comments on the video:
      “Goddammit Lockheed you had ONE JOB.”

      1. skippy

        “A maneuvering ballistic missile perhaps?”

        It seems plausible, especially with assistance from Russia/China. EW and software upgrades as well.

        As of yet it seems no hypersonics have been deployed.

      2. skippy

        Sorry … I forgot that decoys are being used more and more during the terminal phase. Something that would not be visible in the quality of video clips on offer for introspection. So you can have up to 3 layers of response to anti missile systems … EW/Maneuver/Decoys. In that you can have say X amount of ballistics coming down which then is multiplied how many times just before impact on radar and software trying to determine what is the real threat.

  99. Huey

    Not sure if it’s been commented already and not up yet, but as per firstpost:

    “Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed in coordinated US and Israeli strikes, Iran’s state television confirmed.”

  100. Jason Boxman

    Death confirmed by Iran

    An announcer appearing on Iranian television to deliver the news of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei broke down in tears as he read the statement.

    Iran confirmed the death of its leader early Sunday local time, a day after US and Israeli strikes on the country began.

    Iran has announced 40 days of mourning following Khamenei’s death.

    Per CNN.

    What’s kind of amazing to me is that Israel continues to do this very successfully; it isn’t a surprise that they target senior leadership. I’d be curious to learn how this was accomplished. Was Khamenei not trying to avoid being killed, or did Israeli intelligence bring home the goods?

    1. johnnyme

      Probably a combination of the two. The Associated Press is reporting that he was killed in his compound in Tehran:

      State media reported that the 86-year-old was killed in an airstrike targeting his compound in downtown Tehran. Satellite photos from Airbus showed that the site was heavily bombed.

      His death at his office “showed that he consistently stood among the people and at the forefront of his responsibilities, confronting what officials call global arrogance,” state TV said.

    2. Safety First

      The Iranian media is presenting as if Khamenei knew of the danger, but decided to continue working in his residence as normal. Which, if true (and there have been some fake news bandied about thus far, hence the qualifier), would mean that the 87-year old senior cleric in a religion (Shia Islam) that places a significant emphasis on martyrdom decided to…accept martyrdom. Probably gambling that this would solidify Shia will to resist in the face of whatever the US throws at them.

      Notably the important civil authorities – Pezeshkian, Laridzhani, Arakchi, for example – they’re all still reported as alive. So it’s not as if the Iranians were asleep at the wheel here, it seems.

      1. Jason Boxman

        Dying for what he believed in; Not what you’d expect from Trump, or Graham, for example, or Shapiro.

  102. David in Friday Harbor

    Iranian state media have now apparently confirmed that Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed.

    The significance of martyrdom in Shi’a Islam is poorly understood by people in the west. The Ayatollah was even named “Ali” — something of profound importance that is lost on these ignorant people. As an American my only consolation is that this is Israel’s war and likely it is Israelis who will reap the whirlwind…

    2. hk

      How people with names like Peter, Paul, Lawrence, Stephen, or Christopher cannot think of the significance of martyrdom is beyond me, but the concept is distinctly lacking among the Protestants and Protestant-adjacents (ie a large chunk of Western “Catholics.”)

  103. The Rev Kev

    Nothing like killing the religious leader of a region to calm things down. They should try that with the Pope. There are reports already that there are celebrations in places like LA over this news by the Iranian diaspora which will go down well in Tehran. I imagine that Israel imagines that the country will buckle over this news but much more likely they will come together and dig in.

    1. Safety First

      Based on how Iranian media is covering this, I suspect (but cannot prove as of yet) that Khamenei might have decided to expose himself to potential martyrdom so as to boost the Shias’ will to resist.

      Also, too, I half-suspect that the reaction to a hypothetical “removal by missile” of the Pope would depend on the Pope in question. I doubt Ratzinger was hugely popular, for example…

    3. John Wright

      See https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-02-28/day-of-history-joy-anxiety-in-tehrangeles-after-airstrikes-in-iran

      I hope the former Iranian people in the Los Angeles celebrations of the USA /Israel military actions against their former country will be joining the USA military next week to show their support.

      It would be only fair they put themselves at risk as the other USA military people, without Iranian connections, are now at risk as a result of Trump’s actions.

  104. Balakirev

    Ritter literally goes to pieces over the girls killed at two girls’ schools were bombed. I don’t blame him. How could I, and call myself a human being?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDVrnJhsSlU

    Starts around the 30 minute mark, and continues for 5 minutes, until the end of the program. He also gets in a fine call-out to Trump. The Judge seems dry-eyed, but he has to keep things moving. I wonder how many members of our meek Congress who won’t challenge the Donald on this war of his will actually care more about what’s happening in Iran, vs. how to preserve their power bases.

    1. skippy

      Madeleine Albright is infamously remembered for her 1996 comment regarding the death of half a million Iraqi children due to UN sanctions, stating to Lesley Stahl on 60 Minutes: “I think this is a very hard choice, but the price—we think the price is worth it”….

      It should be remembered these are the so called pro life sorts … and what was old is defiantly not new … Trump considers himself the religious leader of the U.S.A. e.g. all are led by his moral world view …

    2. Safety First

      I keep monitoring two different Iranian media channels. I would estimate that roughly 50% of the coverage from morning to noon Eastern Time was dedicated to this one girls’ school in Minab (near Bandar Abbas). They were barely covering any other strikes inside Iran at that point; the rest of the coverage was the first couple of waves of drones and missiles against American and Israeli targets. Really, really cranking up the emotional part of it (“father holds murdered daughter’s bloody backpack” is a representative video clip posted).

      And I do not blame them, not in the slightest. The pictures broadcast from the side were bloody awful. I’m just trying to make the point that they really seem to be really, really leaning into the “look at what these murderers did to our children” angle to mobilize the population. As well they probably should be.

      And then later in the day the next strike waves went in, and coverage switched to those. But based on what had happened last year, when the 500 or so dead civilians from the 12-day war continued to be memorialized in Iranian news for days and weeks afterwards (up to and including AI-image video tributes), I’m guessing that even without any further atrocities (fat chance, that) this will have a long, long runway in Iran itself. And probably Russian media as well, the reaction in state-adjacent channels there since this morning has been…controlled fury at the US.

    3. Victor Sciamarelli

      I hope the Iranians can put the school bombing and death of Khamenei behind them and stay focused; eye on the prize mentality.
      The fact that the school was one of the first things bombed on the first day tells me it was no accident and a target for psychologically destabilising as many Iranians as possible.
      They need to constantly remind themselves that Israel is determined to destroy their country.

  106. Acacia

    Good summary of what to expect when markets open tomorrow:

    https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2027936080541131106

    Twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.

    Today the number may be zero.

    Not because Iran mined the water. Not because a tanker was hit. Because Lloyd’s of London picked up the phone.

    War risk underwriters began canceling policies for strait transits hours after Operation Epic Fury launched. The Financial Times confirmed premiums surging 50 percent. Baseline war risk sits at 0.25 percent of hull value. For a hundred million dollar tanker that is 250,000 dollars per voyage. At peak escalation rates, one million per transit. Vessels linked to American or Israeli interests are becoming uninsurable entirely. No price. No policy. No passage.

    More follows in the tweet.

  107. Balakirev

    CBS has created a slightly-less-than-2-minutes piece entitled “Khamenei’s killing brings celebration to Iran’s streets”:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J859qPfYgtY

    Lead calls Iran a “brutal theocracy” and refers to Khamenei as someone who “crushed dissent.” (As opposed to USia, where we have a brutal oligarchy that crushes dissent.) Worth watching if you’re halfway to drunk thanks to this attack and want something to help push you over. Does anybody think there are large crowds out in Iran who currently celebrate Khamenei’s death, while Israel and the US rain death on them…?

  108. Ben Panga

    Couple of YT shows I thought were informative

    1. Daniel Davis w/Larry Johnson (recorded shortly after Trump “announced” Khatemi’s death).

    2. Drop Site News, Scahill and Grim w/ Iranian-American analyst Hooman Majd and Ali Abunimah of Electronic Intifada. (Recorded at a similar time)

    The two DSN guests were really good. One thing I noticed is that they are far more willing than Johnson etc to acknowledge that there is a significant percentage in Iran who are against the government.

    My ignorant AF 2c is that the possibility of extended civil chaos in Iran is being underestimated by a lot of the anti-war alt-media. The protests in January were not solely US/Mossad-paid provocateurs.

    Johnson also keeps making a slightly false equivalence with how Americans united after 9/11. There’s a difference between two sides of a democratic system (US in 2001) and unevictable state power v those that want the system itself to change (Iran now)

  112. hoki_haya

    interesting if not unexpected to see many comments conclude with equivalents of ‘store up gasoline, keep cash on hand’. is that the sacrifice the situation requires?

    the concern is manifold, ongoing, what can be said. first to ensure iranian defense measures work in tandem where possible with assistance from allies of varying voices of resistance. second to negotiate, which is chaos when there is no clear position from DC. third is to contemplate outcomes, what this will mean in the likely event that after a few sustained waves of bombing from western taxdollars, paid-off brownshirts (largely minorities) inside iran will be activated, in an attempt to plunge the ancient nation into non-nation status, as is the norm for western military endeavors. massive impact on the region. azeris/turks will come out ahead, or israel gets defanged.

    this is the sort of conflict where deeper acts of conscience must be undertaken, and it’s good to see any evidence of when and where they are.

    after this last wave of boomers has passed, america must decouple from israel. it’s fairly clear the majority of americans and the world populace are in favor of that. a hope for basic, systemic reprioritization as to what constitutes this gift of human life.

    1. Wukchumni

      interesting if not unexpected to see many comments conclude with equivalents of ‘store up gasoline, keep cash on hand’. is that the sacrifice the situation requires?

      No other country in the world had fistfights over toilet paper procurement when Covid came calling… we’re wired to close in on the kill, saving maybe $10 by filling up before the price increase, on a strictly 1-time-deal.

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