[This Iran war post yet again launched before complete, today due to Links. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT for the finished version]
Despite the furor in the US over the shock resignation of MAGA diehard Joe Kent, #2 at the Department of National Intelligence, and sticking the knife in Trump and twisting by saying that Iran posed no threat to the US and we went to war because Israel, this event is a highly-visible mark-to-market of falling support for the conflict in the US, as opposed to something that will change its trajectory.1
Despite efforts at intensification, both sides in the Iran war for the moment are staying on the same level in the escalation ladder, in an attritional slugfest. The Israeli assassination of military chief Ali Larijani is a continuation of its futile efforts to bring Iran into leadership disarray via decapitation strikes. But commentators also pointed out that Larijani, like Ali Khamenei, was moderate, and Larijani could conceivably have supported de-escalation once Iran felt it had made its point. Thus many experts contend that Israel martyred Larijani to make the possibility of some sort of settlement even more remote. For instance:
Why did Israel target Ali Larijani, and what are the implications if it is confirmed that he was killed?
I see three potential motivations behind the assassination attempt:
1. Israel is trying to literally kill off Trump’s off ramps: Larijani was not only a key figure within…
— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) March 17, 2026
And from Bloomberg in Will Larijani Killing Weaken Chance of US Exit Strategy for Iran War?:
- Israel’s killing of Ali Larijani leaves Iran’s wartime leadership largely in the hands of hardliners who may be less likely to seek a diplomatic pathway out of the war.
- Larijani’s death could block potential diplomatic efforts to end the war quickly, as he was seen as a figure who could potentially act as a conduit to talks.
- The killing of Larijani may accelerate the empowerment of hardline and security elements within the Islamic Republic of Iran, with his death potentially leading to further hardline consolidation at the top.
On top of that, in response, Iran has simply and publicly doubled down on it planning for assassinations:
Similarly, the US show of force by sending in 5,000 pound bombs to hit what it claims were missile sites on the Strait of Hormuz may excite the hawks but is ineffective in reopening the Strait. Iran has among other things underwater drones that can sink ships. Former US army officer Stanislav Krapivnik has colorfully described how easy it would be to drive an old truck to the cliffs overlooking the Strait of Hormuz with drones operated by young men who’d just lost family members in the war, and have them take out vessels in the Strait.
Having said that, and I will return to this incident later in the past (or in comments), since the report broke as I was still composing this article, there may have been a failed attempt to move up the escalation ladder, in the form of a strike on the grounds of the Bushear nuclear plant. This may be, like the attack on Kharg Island, which did not target the critical oil infrastructure, intended as threat display. From Associated Press:
Iran and Russia both allege a projectile struck the grounds of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the Islamic Republic, raising the specter of a radiological incident as Tehran’s war with Israel and the United States rages.
Neither Iran nor Russia say there was any release of nuclear material in the incident on Tuesday evening, but it again underlines a longtime worry of Iran’s neighbors — that the power plant on the shores of the Persian Gulf could be hit by either an attack or an earthquake…
Russia’s state-run Tass news agency quoted Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev late Tuesday as claiming “a strike hit the area adjacent to the metrology service building located at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant site, in close proximity to the operating power unit.” Russian technicians from Rosatom operate the plant, using Russian-made, low-enriched uranium.
“There were no casualties among Rosatom State Corporation personnel,” Likhachev said. “The radiation situation at the site is normal.”…
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran later issued a statement saying “no financial, technical, or human damage occurred and no part of the plant was harmed.” Iran blamed the incident on the United States and Israel, Tass later reported.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, which has had its inspections of Iran restricted over years of tensions over Tehran’s program after Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, issued a carefully worded statement early Wednesday.
“The IAEA has been informed by Iran that a projectile hit the premises of the Bushehr NPP on Tuesday evening,” the United Nations agency said, using an acronym for nuclear power plant. “No damage to the plant or injuries to staff reported.”
This dangerous provocation seems set to produce even more harsh Iranian strikes, even after it upped the ferocity of its pounding of Israel and Gulf states after Larijani was killed.
Even so, despite the kinetic action, what will prove to be dispositive is the tsunami of economic effects about to overwhelm and even potentially sweep away significant parts of the global. Many are in the phase where the water recedes far far further out than normal, and do not recognize what that portends, that they need to flee for higher ground if they can. Admittedly, that retreat is also providing a bit of a spectacle in revealing who has been swimming naked.
But (to mix images) as William Gibson observed, “The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.” Some economies and sectors are already experiencing serious dislocations due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and can infer the trajectory if things don’t change very soon.
But unlike a real-world tsunami, the continuation of the closure has effects as if the ocean retreated even further from land accumulating even more weight of water before it turns and smashes into the shore.
Yet denialism and lack of comprehension, even among otherwise well-informed commentators reigns even as the destructive forces become more powerful. The Trump Administration’s version of the Friedman unit is its patter that the war might take another three, at worst six weeks, as if a closure of the Strait for that long would not be devastating. Israel is also talking in terms of a few weeks, although apparently also occasionally messages that the war in Lebanon might take as long as a year,
By contrast, Professor Mohammed Marandi has said that Iran is prepared to fight past the midterms and into 2027.
Iran had also warned before the conflict began that if it was attacked, it would close the Strait of Hormuz for at least two to three months.
Three months of closure, given how long it would take to get oil and gas production back to their old normal and unsnarl shipping, translates into at best a very deep recession. Six months would mean a global economic collapse.
If you did not view this short clip in comments yesterday, please watch it now. Even though Iran has offered some variants on themes for its demands for ending the war, as you can see below, it has two essential requirements, the end of US military bases in the Middle East, and regime change in Israel:
2024 IRAN WAR PREDICTION WAS INSANELY ACCURATE
Listening to Iran's Seyed Mohammad Marandi in 2024 predicting EXACTLY what would happen if Israel/U.S. started war with Iran.
Man, that was not a bluff. pic.twitter.com/dI0LWXE6cU
— Radar 𝘸 Archie🚨 (@RadarHits) March 14, 2026
Astonishingly, even Foreign Affairs, the premier US foreign policy magazine, is warning the US cannot win, in a piece larded with Iran-hate. From How America’s War on Iran Backfired; Tehran Will Now Set the Terms for Peace Foreign Affairs. Please take the time to read it in full.
Trump likely wants to declare victory soon. The Iranian military has been severely degraded. Israel may be running low on missile interceptors, and keeping global markets stable will require reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has declared closed to its enemies. But he cannot force surrender on a government that refuses it. Even after the heavy damage to Iran’s military, the regime that Khamenei put in place has powerful incentives to pursue continued conflict, and it retains a variety of tools to sustain a war of attrition.
Larry Wilkerson has had several terrific talks in the past 24 hours. Even though his second one, with Glenn Diesen, is in some ways more consequential, in the first with Nima he discusses how Netanyahu is committed to the war even if it results in the destruction of Israel. He also discusses at length how the US depends on NATO allies for key specialty functions like minesweeping, what convoy operations look like, how tabletop exercise for forcing open the Strait of Hormuz showed it would be a bloodbath, and dynamics in the region.
Wilkerson also discusses what he sees as progressing dementia in Trump, including that he has been told that those who get near Trump say he smells putrid.
Wilkerson’s later chat with Glenn Diesen looks more at the geopolitical consequences. He also discusses at some length the operational as well as political impossibility of reinstituting the draft on any useful timetable:
And another cheery sighing on how the war is going from Hindustan Times:
Briefly, some additional kinetic war sightings before turning to Joe Kent and the increasing potential for very dire economic outcomes.
On the US deploying bunker busters along the Strait of Hormuz. From the BBC’s live blog:
US hits Iranian missile sites near Strait of Hormuz
The US military says it has struck Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz with powerful bombs that are capable of penetrating bunkers.
In a post on X, the US Central Command said US forces had “successfully employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites” along Iran’s coastline of the strait.
“The Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles in these sites posed a risk to international shipping in the strait,” the US military says.
Iran’s effective closure of the waterway – through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil shipments move – has sharply disrupted maritime traffic and contributed to rising global oil prices.The huge bombs are likely to be similar to the “bunker busters” that the US used when it attacked three underground nuclear sites in Iran last year.
Unlike conventional bombs, bunker busters are not designed to explode in the air, on the ground or surface of a target. They are encased in heavy, hardened steel and are made to penetrate deep into the ground before detonating.
And:
BREAKING 🚨
🇺🇸 🇮🇷 U.S. forces struck underground Iranian missile sites along the Hormuz coastline using 5,000-lb GBU-72 bunker-buster bombs, per CENTCOM.
Targets included hardened anti-ship positions threatening commercial shipping.
🎥 Representative video shows the strike… pic.twitter.com/jXw5cvOH5a
— FalconUpdatesHQ (@FalconUpdatesHQ) March 18, 2026
On Iran’s retaliation for the Larijani murder:
More:
Iran launched 100 missiles on Israel, carrying between one and two tons of explosives, in retaliation to the target assassination of Ali Larijani.
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) March 18, 2026
Iran is continuing to pound the Gulf States, in particular the UAE. You’ll notices a bizarre whistling-past-the-graveyard posture in this segment, of “Of course we will rebuild.” I am told Kuwait never recovered from its early 1990s invasion by Iraq.
Note also that the segment above stresses the success in interceptions. Pray tell, how long can that continue?
On background developments, from VT Foreign Policy in Russia’s $900M Missile System Just Landed in Iran — America Has No Defense Against It:
Russia just delivered a $900 million integrated weapons package to Iran.
• 4 S-400 battalions with 384 missiles
• 24 Iskander-M launchers threatening every US base in the Gulf
• 8 Bastion-P coastal systems with 64 anti-ship missiles
• Nebo-M radar that can detect stealth aircraft at 600km .
The Pentagon has privately admitted: “Assume all offensive operations are now contested.”
Russia just delivered a weapons package to Iran that makes everything America has built in the Middle East over the last 40 years strategically obsolete.
Not a single missile system, not a symbolic transfer, not the kind of arms deal that shifts balance marginally and gives both sides time to adjust. Russia delivered an integrated $900 million combined strike and defense architecture that the Pentagon has privately admitted it cannot defeat.
Last but not least on the kinetic war front:
JUST IN: The US Navy is investigating whether sailors aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford deliberately set fire to their own ship to end the deployment.
That is the sentence. Read it again.
The $13 billion carrier, the most expensive warship ever built, is now diverting to Souda… https://t.co/LOop7FJIYG pic.twitter.com/VBGKPtZ4QY
— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 17, 2026
On Joe Kent, perhaps I am unduly cynical, I see this event as more a confirmation of of political deterioration of Trump’s position, already reflected in his falling polling numbers, than likely to produce more fractures on its own. Recall that some compared the Kent resignation to Charlie Kirk deciding he had to abandon his support for Israel, which became public despite him being assassinated. Gabbard disgracefully and quickly fell in line (see for instance Gabbard: Trump concluded Iran posed an imminent threat from The Hill). Larry Johnson excoriates her in Joe Kent Hero… Tulsi Gabbard, a Contemptible, Craven Zero.
His resignation letter is embedded in this tweet:
After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today.
I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this… pic.twitter.com/prtu86DpEr
— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) March 17, 2026
Many commentators, as Wilkerson did in both his talks above, stressed that Kent was the epitome of MAGA, and a pretty close contact of Trump’s, which makes his claim that that he didn’t know much about Kent characteristically disgraceful.
The New York Times (see Joe Kent, a Top U.S. Counterterrorism Official, Resigns Over the Iran War ) and The Hill, among many others, were fast out with coverage, with The Hill also reporting on speedy pushback (Johnson refutes Joe Kent on Iran: ‘There was clearly an imminent threat’ in The Hill, for instance).
However, Kent is also a from-central-casting epitome of the current US fantasy of a warrior, sure to widely interviewed.
I expect Kent to get the John Kirakou treatment, of the Administration finding a pretext to prosecute him.
Now to the economic front. The Financial Times has a fine piece on the way real world oil prices are becoming disconnected from “paper oil.” From Oil in Oman soars above $150 as buyers rush to replace Gulf barrels :
Oil buyers are scrambling to replace supplies from the Gulf, causing price leaps for grades around the world from Norway to Kazakhstan and driving crude traded in Oman to a record of more than $150 a barrel.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East has severed about a fifth of the world’s oil production from global markets, boosting demand for grades of crude with similar characteristics to those produced in the Gulf.
The growing disruption to supplies has driven a number of regional price benchmarks to all-time highs, even as global marker Brent has fallen back to just above $100 a barrel after jumping to nearly $120 in the early stages of the Iran war.
“It’s sheer physical scarcity driving prices,” David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media.
The price of a barrel of oil in Oman — which exports from ports outside the Strait of Hormuz — soared to nearly $154 on Tuesday, driven by intense competition for the small volumes still leaving the Middle East….
Buyers seeking alternatives to Gulf crude have also had to pay far more than usual to transport cargoes because of increased demand for tankers, longer routes and soaring shipping fuel prices.
Even when a comparable oil grade is available, some refineries might not want to use it because they were unsure how the switch would affect their output, said Philip Jones-Lux, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities. Older refineries in Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and some in Singapore might fall into this category, he said.
The cost of crude for Asian refineries had “roughly doubled” since before the war, Jones-Lux said.
As the war progresses, the difference between prices quoted on widely used oil benchmarks Brent and US WTI and prices paid for physical deliveries has become more stark.
Those benchmarks have not risen as much in part because they reflect prices for light crude with low sulphur levels, whereas the trapped oil in the Gulf is typically heavier and with more sulphur content.
“The Hormuz crisis mostly impacts medium-sour crude flows to Asia and there are very limited options to offset flows,” Ivan Mathews, head of APAC analysis at energy data company Vortexa.
Brent and WTI futures also reflect prices for oil delivered in May, by which time some traders hope that flows through Hormuz will have at least partially resumed, whereas physical purchases need to arrive much sooner.
“Right now it feels like the paper and the physical market has dislocated,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “[This is] the biggest disruption since the 1970s and Brent can barely hold above $100.”
This is a much weaker manifestation of the result foretold in The Naphtha Heart Attack article we discussed last week, which argued that the very light crude of WTI would not just fall in price but even violently invert. So this article could prove to be correct, but seems more likely to have overstated its case of what happens as heavier crudes are even more fiercely bid up and go into shortage as now-much-less-desired light crude is in comparative oversupply.
You do not have to look hard to find signs of worry and rising distress in Asia. A few sightings:
From a Nikkei e-mail: South Asia Watch: Gas and Goldilocks:
India’s restaurants have emerged as the highest-profile victims of the country’s current liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shortages stemming from the Iran war, although the hit to energy supplies has affected the ceramics industry and others, too… its LPG imports through the strait.
Panic gripped India last week as LPG supplies to restaurants were stopped and rerouted to homes, with news reports of the hoarding and trading of LPG cylinders on the black market…
“Brent crude oil settling at [$100 per barrel] may eventually necessitate the raising of retail fuel prices, which will directly feed into CPI (consumer price index) inflation,” economists at Barclays said in a note to clients last week.
“We estimate a direct impact of about 0.5 percentage points from a 10% increase in petrol and diesel prices,” the note added. India has yet to pass on a significant portion of the oil price rise to consumers….
Although wins like temporary passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz help, they only serve as Band-Aids over a gaping wound. For India, which needs to keep up growth rates to employ its young population and raise income levels, an end to the war is the only solution.
Every Wednesday a public holiday: Sri Lanka announces measure to conserve fuel Hindustan Times (hat tip retaj)
Diesel crisis hits services, everyday life Bangkok Post
OilPrice has an informative article on the considerable knock-on effects of the seize-up of oil flows and oil payments. I vastly prefer its “petrocapital” concept to the very misleading invocation of “petrodollar”. It puts the focus squarely on what State Department now-declassified archives (including meeting notes from negotiations with Saudi officials) show that Kissinger and other top officials worried about during the oil shock: how the Saudi massive capital surpluses would be recycled. The US priority was that a large portion not go into the accumulation of investments that would give the oil producing states political leverage, like equities, factories, farmland, but bonds, which produce income but not ownership rights.
From How the Iran War Could Trigger a Global Credit Crunch:
- The Iran war is disrupting the petrocapital cycle—the flow of oil revenues from Gulf producers into global financial markets—raising the risk of a global credit crunch.
- Ongoing attacks, the Strait of Hormuz closure, and financial center instability (e.g., Dubai) are weakening Gulf economies and limiting their ability to recycle capital into global markets.
- With financial systems already under strain, reduced petrocapital flows could amplify market volatility, tighten credit, and trigger broader economic shocks beyond energy…
Petrocapital in the 70s and 80s was best understood as a regular flow of invested profits from oil exporters. As globalization set in and Persian Gulf leaders sought to diversify their economies away from oil, a growing stream of Middle Eastern capital originating from financial hubs like Dubai and Kuwait has since emerged. Countries like the United Arab Emirates have further encouraged these trends by courting investment in real estate and offering sanctuary for tax exiles, promises which were premised on the assumption that the Persian Gulf would remain stable, peaceful, and a safe place to invest or relocate. Increasing diversification has only encouraged these trends, and the Persian Gulf, before the war, was hailed as a major center for investment and financial capital, as attested by the estimated $1.4 trillion of assets held by the United Arab Emirates’ financial sector as of November 2025….
This disruption to both capital flows and regular operations comes just as global credit markets are already facing growing signs of turbulence. Global stock markets have posted steady declines as rising tensions in the region have fueled fears of a global energy crisis. This comes as debt markets show growing stresses, with one OECD official stating inflationary pressures, like those driven by the present energy crisis, would be a “big stress test”. Private credit markets are also increasingly running low on lucrative contracts and have been forced into tight competition over less and less desirable bids. Bond markets, as recently as the end of February, were also showing signs of high demand in the face of growing economic uncertainty, suggesting there already was a lot of money chasing a dwindling pool of safe assets before the war began.
Done for today. Back tomorrow!
____
1 The analogy is the Nixon Administration Saturday Night massacre. But that triggered Nixon’s impeachment, when nothing of the sort will happen to Trump soon, if at all.
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The killing of Larijani does not speak well of Iranian competence. They can talk of assassinating Israeli leaders in retaliation but haven’t been able to do it yet.
Iran is beating Trump because Iran is sitting on top of the Strait of Hormuz and oil tankers are easy targets , so Iran can bring the world economy to its knees. Of the three countries involved, the U.S. is the least competent because it never occurred to our brilliant leaders that Iran can hold a knife to the throat of the world economy because it is sitting on top of the Strait and does not have to be a military powerhouse to do it. Israel is the best at what it does— smashing things, assassinating top leaders, committing genocide and creating chaos. It is their go- to option and they are used to getting away with it.
To me this looks like a war of blunderers, with the likely winner determined by geography.
There has not been any definitive proof of life for Barnea, Ben Gvir or Netanyahu since March 2
Ben Gvir was actually ALIVE, was he?
I thought he was a “rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouch(ing) towards Bethlehem to be born?”
That Yeats, eh? He really saw it second-coming…
Indeed. israelis are the best at assassinations precisely because they have no ability to fight against a real military. They are the world’s biggest pussies, always hiding behind their ‘big brother’ who also pays all the bills and bails them out.
Ethics and Morals?! That, if i recall correctly, is part of USraels Core Values , and a part of their mission statement…
I don’t think I need to cite anything here, beyond the fact that he was murdered and now the Iranians have apparently lost their intelligence chief.
Yves says below that this is or might be a cultural thing, and that could be, but if competent leaders are being killed it is a cultural value that doesn’t seem very useful in war. In WW2 Pacific island campaigns, the Japanese military would sometimes stage suicidal charges–this was obviously a cultural thing, but they could have killed more Americans if they had stayed in their foxholes and forced Americans to come to them.
And I am not praising the Israelis–I think the society is racist and genocidal. I visit a liberal-left blog and the other day some of the commenters were talking as though it was just Netanyahu and Likud that is the problem there. I wish that were the case, but from everything I have read, the majority of Israeli Jewish society supported the barbarism of their Gaza war. But they are better so far at smashing buildings and killing people, civilians most of all.
Are they good man-to-man? If they fought on equal terms with Hezbollah, infantry vs infantry, how would they do? I have no idea. Maybe beating up and shooting civilians and trashing homes in Gaza are not the best training. But that is what they have 2000 lb bombs for, so they don’t have to find out.
Please see Julian Macfarlane, who explains long form why you have this all wrong and your view reveals Western (big man!) cultural prejudice, erm, assumptions. Unlike Christian or Jews, Iranians do not run or even flinch when they are gathered in public and hear bombardments. They chant “Allah is great!”
Read it in its entirety. A key section:
Martyrdom is a powerful force that can change the world
Remember that humble carpenter named Jesus?
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/murder-most-foul-fc1
Who was Larijani?
I read it. He might be right. I am not wedded to my view here.
And Iran aside, the link was worth reading just for the video of the family with the dogs and rabbit. We need to see things like that in depressing times like these.
Larijani was not an intelligence chief, he was the Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council. His task was to implement what the 13 members of the SNSC decided regarding the “the protection and support of national interests and Islamic revolution and territorial integrity and national sovereignty of the country”. Many of his predecessors and deputies are alive and well, so the “institutional knowledge” remains.
Iran has 16 separate intelligence organizations (which may explain what can perceived as inefficiency). In principle they are controlled by the Intelligence Coordinating Council consisting of all the agency heads. The main dog is the Ministry of Intelligence, even if the minister of intelligence position has been vacant since Mohammad Reyshahri died in 2022 (MoI was largely his creation).
‘Iran has 16 separate intelligence organizations (which may explain what can perceived as inefficiency).’
Wait a minute. Last I heard, the US has 17 intelligence organizations.
The IRGC was placed in control. Its equivalent to killing Hegseth when the joint command is running the war. Irrelevant (but as below a mistake). If you see IRGC commanders dying, then its a problem.
Secondly, the reality is that everyone will die one day. Sorry to have to mention this uncontrovertible reality. And for older people, that day is much nearer. Sorry again to have to share this shocking news. Given a choice between dying in bed of old age or as a martyr, then that is the will of Allah and to be avenged. Watch any of the videos of marches with missiles hitting a nearby building, and you will see Iran is NOT the West.
I have been struck by how emphatic Dr. Marandi has been, over the years, that the West will be punished and that revenge will be delivered. It’s the bees’ evolutionary strategy: birds leave them alone because they know the price is deadly, and there are always more bees.
“The killing of Larijani does not speak well of Iranian competence.”
That could be true and maybe likely is but another way to look at it is that possibly unlike Israeli and Western leadership, the Iranian leaders choose not to hide. At least not to the point where staying alive becomes the primary goal. Maybe the point they are making is that their lives are no more valuable than anyone else’s and they have accepted that they will be targets. It’s pretty obvious at this point, as you say, what Israel does. Also, not unlike Ukraine, when losing – they look for the big headline.
They do not believe in hiding in bunkers on an ongoing basis. So this is not a matter of competence but cultural values.
Larijani, Pezeshkian and other top leaders made a point of being in public on the recent Quds Day. So you could just as easily argue that Israel not having taken out many others is a sign that Israeli competence is not all that it is cracked up to be, given their assassination fixation.
This is exactly the point. Larijani, according to Iranian media, was killed while visiting his daughter’s house, which presumably is a known location.
In similar vein – I’ll post below something the Iranian press had published BEFORE Larijani’s death, purported to be the last conversation between Larijani and Khamenei. Leaving aside the question of “whether” this conversation transpired in exactly the way described, what’s important is the message being sent to the Iranian public. Which is especially important as in Shia Islam Khamenei was not just a titular leader, but a sort of a “role model” for the faithful, if that’s the correct term.
Maybe one thing the repeated assassinations of elderly Iranian leaders do is inject a a large dose of testosterone into the leadership. On balance, younger men should be less risk averse.
it looks like the rats are deserting the sinking ship. kent, and gabbard distancing herself from responsibility for the war. trumpy increasingly comes across as a latter day king lear, ranting and raving, all sound and fury signifying nothing, increasingly ignored by everybody around him. a sort of white idi amin. it is unlikely he will be on the scene much longer. perhaps the you-know-whos will off him, like charlie kirk.
1. Isn’t that Macbeth?
2. Killing the guy you can apparently blackmail doesn’t seem strategic.
Does anyone have a different source regarding that arms delivery mentioned above from VT Foreign Policy? I can’t find info on that anywhere.
Fair point, does it matter? If Iran’s intention is to, and here I will quote the official looking tweet that Ben Panga posted below at the 12:31 mark,
Spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters:
Fuel, energy, and gas infrastructure at the source of aggression will be burned and reduced to ashes at the earliest opportunity. This is a direct warning following the attack on Iran’s southern energy facilities.
I believe that Iran can cary out this threat with or without the Russian delivery, essentially forcing team z back to the escalation ladder.
Seems that delivery of the Iskanders has been a rumor at least since January, e.g.:
Iranian Media Claims Russia Has Delivered Iskander Ballistic Missiles to Tehran
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iranian-media-claims-russia-delivers-iskander-ballistic-missiles-iran/
But Iran has had the S-400 since last July:
Iran Flexes Missile Shield Near Nuclear Hub in First-Ever Russian S-400 Test
Jul 28, 2025
https://united24media.com/latest-news/iran-flexes-missile-shield-near-nuclear-hub-in-first-ever-russian-s-400-test-10206
Not finding any other sources on Bastion-P anti-ship missile system delivery to Iran.
Just did a search on Yandex and came up with this video from 9 days ago saying Russia delivered the full package. I’m not familiar with the source, and haven’t listened to the whole thing yet, so not sure what his source is either.
I only did a couple fairly unsophisticated searches and that video was the most recent and only thing that came up. Everything else was from 2024 or 2025 about earlier weapons deliveries. The other recent one that came up was about Russia mass producing upgraded Shahed drones and shipping those to Iran. Again, can’t vouch for the source.
I did finish the video in the first link above and it’s done by a clanker, no sources were given, and others from that channel look pretty sketchy. Sorry for posting that one.
Really? I think the Iranian strategy has been utterly brilliant. Waiting for Israel and the US to attack first – so they will be the ones blamed for starting the war when the economic blowback sinks in and everyone is looking for a side to blame. Attacking all the US bases and more importantly attacking the radar and spy networks right away. Giving Israel the beat down it has so long deserved – every anti-zionist was cheering for that one. The tit or tat approach to warfare – making it clear to the world that it is Israel and the US that are escalating. Showing the Gulf States that they are being attacked as a result of US/Israeli actions, which the ordinary citizens of those countries are taking on board. Leaders that are showing fearlessness and a willingness to sacrifice for the greater good of Iran’s future. And best of all – controlling which countries have access to Persian Gulf oil through the Strait – and insisting all transactions be made in Chinese Yuan – a real middle finger to the petrodollar. Of course, the Iranians are taking advantage of their geography and their obvious opportunity to control the Strait – what country in their position wouldn’t? As for Larijani, all the Iranian leaders are pretty much out in the open with their people. I assume all of them expect to be killed and have prepared their families. He wasn’t a rat hiding away like Netanyahu was, flying around the world in a first class jet while the people of Israel hid in bunkers while their cities were destroyed. This is anything but a war of blunderers – unless you are speaking of the US and Israel – with all their “intelligence” completely underestimating Iran, the Iranian leadership and the Iranian people.
Wilkerson also discusses what he sees as progressing dementia in Trump, including that he has been told that those who get near Trump say he smells putrid.
Yeah, my father and stepmother, dementia struck both hard at pretty much the same time… oh god… the smell… My father was suffering from (then) undiagnosed Frontotemporal dementia and my stepmother from dementia likely caused by an untreated Vitamin B deficency. Personaly hygiene was one the first things to go– they simply were unaware of it, probably due to anosognosia, damage to part of the brain that gives us self-awareness.
As persons who work with or are in frequent contact with animal know, an ungroomed animal is a sick animal: we are no different.
I know imdoc weighed-in on Trump’s condition, but if Team Trump is found to be pulling a Team Biden, that certainly opens up the question, “who is actually running this country?”
“who is actually running this country?”
Stephen Miller, Jared Kushner, Bibi, Rubio
God list, I’d personally fiddle with the order.
Going to be quite a Pirate Ship when the old guy goes away.
I think chief of staff Wiles is more likely running most of things, if dementia is the case. Miller is a deputy to her. If its meglomania, that I think would be more difficult to manage.
I don’t think so. Even with many changes in the White House over the last few decades overall policies have changed little. Also, if Miller, et.al., were removed I doubt little would change.
IMHO the real puppet masters remain mostly hidden but have billiions of dollars with which to bribe and personal portfolios with which to blackmail. This translates to a plutocracy but probably is closer to Mafia-style rule.
Aaron Good has an excellent treatment of a
in American Exception. Highly recommended. Great podcast too.
In the midst of all this: where the heck is Rubio? Have we had any news about him in the last few days? Any AI videos? Or is it that his follies don’t reach headline level these days? Focusing on Cuba?
As eager for his decline as the next relatively sane person, but I watched him take questions on board a plane the other day and while he was as often unfiltered, amused by himself and his power, he also seemed pretty, relatively, coherent. Also–just in the interests of keeping it real–he has been far more accessible than recent presidents. That’s because he does his own PR, loves to hear himself talk. Some decline, clearly, and some serious lapses (as befit his age, the stress.) But I think we may know when he really falters bc his appearances will fall of dramatically or stop? He’s been so public; somewhere somebody is worrying about what happens when he does go. . .
Agreed. I’m twenty years his younger, and I find it amazing how well he is able to rattle off facts, tie them together, and make arguments (or lies) that bolster his position and are designed to pull the wool over the eyes of his supporters. I see no indication a cognitive decline, OTHER THAN two things: 1) he is drunk with power and believes himself to be invincible (.e., he will never face a consequence for telling a lie, committing a crime, taking a bribe, or exacting revenge), and 2) he has surrounded himself with sycophantic yes men who cower in his presence. I also see no evidence that his physical health is declining beyond typical age-related maladies. He seems to have boundless energy. I would be exhausted from all of the information overload, the meeting with people, and the travel. He seems a little worse for wear, but he is otherwise thriving. He had less energy his first term and seemed almost depressed, and that was because he was bored. This term he is energized by crisis upon crisis, all caused by his own making, but it gives him problems to solve and people to save.
You must not be paying attention:
I found that in less than one minute. Plenty more like that.
I have seen at least one demented person up close, my own mother, who could start a conversation in a composed and rational manner. But after a while, lose the thread and go off into a jumble of disconnected words. There are many forms of dementia. Trump’s behavior seems to fit in part or in whole at least two descriptions. Both mentioned by well respected commenters.
Go on. Pull the other one. It’s got bells on.
LawnDart:
The first thought that crossed my mind was flop sweat.
Trump may be manifesting physically his fear.
I also am thinking of his diet of bad ground beef and bad cheese, which sooner or later gets exuded. So he now smells like a short-order grill at the end of night shift plus aroma of old man.
The Japanese, natch, have a word for it. From a blog called Land of the Rising Sun (by an Anglophone in Japan): ‘When butter and meat eating foreigners first arrived in Japan in the mid 1500s, their body order was so powerful, and so unpleasant to the Japanese that prolonged exposure to it made them ill. So from the beginning, foreigners in Japan were known by their distinctive smell.
‘Soon thereafter anything that the Japanese recognizes foreign, including attitudes, manners and products, was labelled bata kusai, or “stinking of butter”, or gaijin kusai.’
Most important is your last paragraph:
Biden was Brezhnev, and Trump is Yeltsin. Neither was compos mentis. It occurs to me that the U S of A may be on “auto-pilot” — just a whole bunch of bad habits hurtling along that haven’t yet hit an immovable object.
Meanwhile, are the passengers in the fuselage starting to get just a tad suspicious?
Biden was Chernenko
Foreign enemies of United States.
Can you imagine what it must be like when those reporters get close up and personal when Trump gives one of his interviews aboard Air Force One? That is a pretty enclosed space that. The reporters in DC would all know but you can bet that they would never mention it in any of their stories.
“Buncha pussies! ” *** Trump answered a press person,
No, I am not afraid of that. I am not afraid of anything?
How about jail , prison? I believe that Trump is terrified of that….
***quoting youtube sensation viet nam vet Gunny
Plus it always looks like he takes questions having just walked out of the bathroom.
One wonders if the reliance on “targeted” airstrikes focused on specific individuals reflects the talents of the current corporate behemoths expertise. Decades of tech development and analytic frameworks devoted to multi device entity resolution and tracking for advertising is the offering of the current American industrial giants.
As opposed to say, the 6.000.000 sq ft Ford city plant on the south side of Chicago – built in less than a year in 1942 that eventually produced over 18,000 B-29 engines over the next 24 months. Contrast the status of China’s production potential to the current use of Ford City as a dying shopping mall.
At least they still use some of the old plant to make Tootsie Rolls.
Mashallah
The values of US/Western foreign policy elite structures reflect this. Hormuz is a huge issue, and it’s like everyone went, “huh?”
The only rationale conclusion is we’ve allowed our elites to believe they matter instead of being replaceable. They don’t keep calendars like ancient priests.
And it begins. Martin Wolfe in the FT —
in the case of this Iran war, . . . there is near-universal agreement, that it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz”. At the moment Iran does. So long as this is true, it is winning.
Trump has broken it. Now he owns it
https://archive.ph/JSM7p
The bombshell in the Kent resignation letter is admitting that the Israelis were not only behind getting us into this ongoing debacle, but also the 2003 Iraq War.
Ever seen the latter admitted to by somebody in the highest channels?
Never. But I do remember Bibi telling Congress that if the US invaded Iraq, that it would lead to a more stable, peaceful Middle East.
Wukchumni: The whole letter is rhetorically red hot. Bringing in his wife raises the stakes.
And that signoff. Here’s the cross-reference:
Trump: “You’re playing cards. You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III.”
Zelenskyy: “What are you speaking about?”
Hill is throwing Trump’s words back at him, even though the whole letter has a reek of sycophancy.
I don’t mind it if it continues to erode mindless support of Israel, but that is too simplistic. At best I might buy that invading Iraq was an Israeli compromise, with them going along so America would get to their desired endgame, Iran, there were too many people who wanted American control of Iraq with an Iraqi oil bonus. And they had to be placated before anything else was going to happen. Call it the Cheney faction, but even Afghanistan only happened because unfortunately the attack they used to justify an incursion into the Middle East was too clearly based there not Iraq. They used American fear and anger to fake the excuse to make the invasion they had been planning since before the election. Hell less than a month after the Inauguration, Cheney took a tour of Europe and the Gulf States (February of 2017) trying to get a coalition to go after Iraq only to be told they weren’t a problem by everyone.
Afghanistan was where the CIA saw their dark money supply for the next 20 years – in the poppy fields.
Yeah, minor silver lining for the delay, even if it majorly sucked for the Afghan people. (You know the Warlords are awful if they make the Taliban look good.) But you also have to remember that in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, they really did try to blame Iraq. It annoyed the heck out of them when they had to pivot and table the Iraq invasion plans Rumsfeld had already mapped out and ready to go.
Full disclosure, I strongly believe in LIHOP and have actively collected bits and pieces about the Bush administration’s actions before and after 9/11. I also know that any and all possibility of winning hearts and minds in the Middle East in the aftermath was not just lost but outright rejected as it was more important to get Afghanistan out of the way so they could go to Iraq. I am not kidding about those poppy fields being an unintended but happy side benefit of our almost two decades long campaign to destabilize the region and enrich a selected group following the removal of Hussein.
That’s not exactly a big secret and Osama himself said that 9/11 was also about Israel and America’s support for it. Young people recently sharing this claim on TikTok were apparently one reason they had to get control of TikTok.
In the Parsi/Napolitano vid the former delves into decades old history that was kicked off when Kissinger transformed our arms length support of Israel by claiming it was a Cold War bastion against the Soviets who then backed Egypt. If one wants to expand this view it would have to include the pre Cold War desire of the British for a settler/colonial outpost in the oil rich, Suez adjacent Middle East.
So the Great Gamers then and now have their own reasons for making this tiny country so important but they aren’t good motives or about the incessantly claimed humanitarian impulses. The shooting is real. The crying consists of crocodile tears.
There was an interview on NPR this morning with Marty Skovlund, Kent’s co-author of a book about Kent’s wife and her death in the war (Send Me: The True Story of a Mother at War).
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/18/nx-s1-5750522/joe-kents-co-author-talks-about-the-counterterrorism-officials-resignation
NPR’s Steve Inskeep pushed back on that particular part of Kent’s resignation letter, calling it an “antisemitic trope”. To Skovlund’s credit, he said that there was nothing antisemitic in the letter and moreover nothing antisemitic in criticizing a country that led the US into wars – and that Kent never said anything against a religion.
Rubio: “we did it because of Israel”
Kent: “we did it because of Israel, and Iraq too”
Dems: “anti-semitism!”
Well, he was a very low-level infantry soldier hardly old enough to shave at the time, so it won’t be based on personal knowledge. Certainly, in all the speculation in European capitals at the time, I never heard this put forward as a theory. On the other hand, given the way Iraq turned out, there will have been various myths floating around Washington for decades to deflect the blame onto others, and, in the present context this explanation is a politically-satisfying one.
What he was at the time is irrelevant. Through his position as the #2 person in the DNI office, he had all the unredacted information until yesterday.
I wouldn’t write off decapitation strikes as futile. When Trump took out Soleimani, he was replaced by the traitor Qaani, who Israel and the US to the murders of many prominent resistance leaders, including Nasrallah, Ismail Haniyeh, and now Ayatolla Khameini Sr. He may have even provided Soleimani’s coordinates for that original assassination that elevated him.
The more leaders they take out, the likelier it gets that they get replaced with someone compromised.
or they murder someone who is compromised. As Trump admitted already.
History shows that older, more conservative leaders are replaced by younger, more radical and aggressive (and stronger) leaders. A natural succession (old die, young replace) that often doesn’t happen in a timely manner in peacetime. Look at the drug cartels – killing or arresting the leader has not won the war on drugs in what 50 years since Nixon declared it? And the new cartel leaders are much more willing to use civilians as pawns.
The problem is that assassinations of leaders create a situation where warfare becomes total – no off-ramps. That is why Europe generally avoided it during its millennia of continuous warfare – if there is no off-ramp, there is no rebalancing of geostrategic power at the end of the war, and then you got wars that dragged on for decades in which everyone loses. This is what Glenn Diesen talks about in depth in his works on the Peace of Westphalia.
This gets compounded since old leaders tend to be skilled politicians, who know a thing or two about political bargaining. In case of Hizb’ullah, I think taking out Nasrallah et Al worked to Israel’s advantage since that eroded Hizb’ullah’s ability to keep up Lebanese public support or at least tolerance for its military activities. In case of Iran, it subverts Iran’s ability to reach a diplomatic conclusion to the conflict. Now, others have pointed out that this might be the intention at all…but if so, it’s absurd and suicidally insane that the Middle Eastern Paraguay, or, perhaps its North American patron, too, can survive the kind of war it’s stoking.
They may also think young and inexperienced. Mistakes to take advantage of.
But, sadly, I think the idea behind the killings are worse than that.
“History shows that older, more conservative leaders are replaced by younger, more radical and aggressive (and stronger) leaders.”
Think of how that’s been used before…
In terms of political consequences for Trump for his catastrophic rule, most intensely this war, the present problem is gerrymandering.
Most Congressional seats are “safe”, meaning November voters always pick the candidate of one of the parties, regardless of who that person is. That reality means primaries–which generally occur June through August depending on the state–determine the November outcome. Trump is currently viewed as able to dictate outcomes in Republican primaries. For so long as that is true, most Rs in Congress will not buck him. If they don’t buck him, there cannot be political consequences before November’s election.
I am hoping that as primary season plays out, Trump’s endorsement is proved ineffective; in that case, consequences will start flowing quickly. If Trump’s power holds, November is likely the soonest Congress will do anything to hold him accountable.
Meanwhile, as the economic damage builds, I think the risks that Trump is assassinated rise, as does the currently infinitesimal possibility that people in the administration start trying to have him removed for incapacity. That chance may never grow beyond infinitesimal, but the Epstein class may decide Trump must go, and they have only so many ways to make it so. Not all members of that class are rabid Zionists.
It seems then that the Massie primary will be a big deal. If Massie is able to hold on and defeat the Trumpenstooge, that might signal the end for Trump’s endorsements having much weight.
Anyone from Kentucky able to shed light on the polls?
Fingers crossed, but I don’t see Massie losing. He’s as righteous as the ‘right’ can be, and that’s coming from a hardcore socialist. Shades of Ron Paul and makes Rand look like a trumper.
He remains the most popular politician in Kentucky.
He’s strongly on the right side when it comes to wars in Ukraine and for Israel, and at least opportunistically on the right side when it comes to big data centers. Remember he started as a judge executive, and the counties are the only real site of resistance to hyperscalers in KY.
A friend attended the Trump visit to KY last week to stump for Ed Gallrein, but we haven’t had coffee yet so I don’t know his read on it.
He was polling poorly last summer (2025) but seems to be doing a bit better now. Anecdotal, but reputable, I think.
Ahead of Trump visit, ‘liberty warriors’ say they’re for Massie March 10, 2026
KY politics insider: Massie’s endorsement theory & Barr’s ‘not a sin to be white’ ad Last month.
As a lefty Kentuckian living in a district represented by milquetoast/Trump sycophant Andy Barr, my respect for Massie on this war and the Epstein is much more substantial, even if I disagree with him on economics and a few other things. You’ll know where you stand with him and that’s no small matter. I suspect that northern Kentuckians who are conservative will be reevaluating their MAGAness and some (enough?) will support Massie.
>>>On background developments, from VT Foreign
Sorry to be “that guy”…that article needs to be taken with a healthy dose of salt and/or verified with actual primary sources, ie from the Russian media. the Twitter-sphere projects a lot onto this idea of a platonic ideal of a RU-IR-CN grand team and conflates thinly sourced, anonymous reporting with fact.
historically, Russian sales of missile systems to Iran have been mired in semantics eg, agreeing to not reverse engineering Russian tech, etc. (maybe this changed recently)
Just being honest, and if there really is a S-400 battery waiting in Iran, the Iranians sure are taking their sweet time using it.
I suggest you stop being derisive, particularly when you show your knowledge is limited.
Or to be more blunt, use a search engine rather than Making Shit Up in the form of a knee-jerk, unsubstantiated rejection
First, only Russia has effective air defenses and even then shit gets through. You need a multi-layered system and satellites. S-400s are not a wonder weapon in isolation. Look at how Israel, which is as big as a postage stamp, is integrated into US satellies and was widely seen as having the world’s best air defense system, came up badly short in the 12 Day War
Second Iran already has S-400s but got them only recently:
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/why-iran-didnt-russian-s400-repel-us-israeli
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2H4n3emIjck
Specifically, it started testing late last summer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2C1d-zbnsRY
Experts have said it would take months to a year to fully integrate them
Third, Iran is HUGE. Even with S-400s, Iran would have to pick and choose what to protect.
The one S-400 battery that exists in Iran was deployed to protect its nuclear sites. So it is not being used for Tehran where the assasination strikes took place.
It takes years to train a competent ADS crew. The Iranians only got the S-400 last year, so they haven’t had much time to train their people on it.
Also, Putin himself said a few months ago (after the 12-day war but before this current war) that the Iranian government has never asked Russia for military assistance. He was answering a reporter’s question to him asking why Russia hasn’t done more to help Iran against the Israelis. The Iranians are apparently a very proud people who don’t like asking outsiders for help.
Krapivnik has addressed this, saying that it does take a year to train, but in the meantime he believes Russians are manning the S400 batteries. If you have people on site doing the training, the only thing preventing them from operating is a policy decision. Protecting the Bushehr reactor makes sense, since even if you think of Russians firing effective AD at US and Israeli planes would be an escalation, it would certainly be proportionate to the attack itself. Knocking down planes attempting assassinations, which could be any plane, might be another example.
I agree. If Russia were providing air defense systems to Iran, it would be major news. Therefore, it’s inconceivable that the mainstream media hasn’t covered this story. Moreover, considering Russia’s own shortage of air defense systems, it’s highly unlikely that it would supply Iran with its valuable S-400s.
Russia has multiple generations of S-400s.
Russia HAS ALREADY SENT S-400s, FFS.
Russia signed a defense pact with Iran.
Russia cannot let Iran lose this war. Iran is on the Caspian Sea as Russia is. Russia would be next on the menu
I suggest you rethink your assumptions
C’mon. Russia has a real lot to gain vis a vis Ukraine, by aiding Iran and keeping USrael busy.
And, they probably, in Steven Miller world-think, are plotting an exchange of treasure: US gets Cuba, Russia gets kraine
?
Who da heck knows. The unknown unknowns- Donald Rumsfled, who attended Princeton,
like Petey Boy Hegseth.
I have recurring hopes (fantasies?) that Russia has supplied Iran with several hundred Oreshniks and Iran is holding back until the Knesset meets while boycotted by Arab members.
And at the same time, wipe out Dimona, Haifa and all of their military bases.
don’t forget desalination plants
Thats pretty sad. I still fantasize (even at my old age) about women.
Having said that, it would be nice to see the Knesset be buried alive.
Code Yikes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Today
Recently (4th February) the CIA announced it was shuttering its World Factbook. And it occurred to me this might be a reasonable cost saving exercise now that wikipedia is available to do much the same job. But even in that frame of mind, the above linked wiki write-up is hella yikes.
John Kirakou mentioned that when it happened and what a loss it was.
i don’t say this with any pleasure, but from an iranian point of view, russia has proven to be a very unreliable and untrustworthy partner over many years. russia supported genocidal us sanctions against iran. iranian children died as a result. simple statement of fact. iran contracted with russia to purchase s300 missiles. russia refused to deliver these – for many years. iran developed the bavar system as a substitute. russia refused to complete work at bushehr it was contracted to carry out. russia did all these things in return for worthless us promises (never kept) not to put missile bases on russia’s borders. russia has a very bad record of doing sordid and very ill advised deals with its enemies which involve selling out its friends. putin often talks in gushing terms of israel and its right to “defend itself.” sometimes it sounds like lindsey graham talking. putin seems to have an unhealthy relationship with jewish oligarchs. going further back in time, russia was the main arms supplier to saddam hussein in the iran-iraq war (half a million iranian dead?) or how russia invaded iran in 1941. for all these reasons, i take reports of concrete russian assistance to iran with a very healthy dose of salt. or maybe the annual output of a siberian salt mine. sorry, but sticking your head in the sand ostrich-like is just self delusion. on numerous occasions, russia has shown itself to be a bit of a snake that cannot be trusted.
Putin is probably the most remarkable politician of our generation. He saved Russia from oligarch rule after the most valuable pieces had been carved out for them by Western interference, and the West will never forgive him for that. The job he started is not yet finished, but at least the oligarchs no longer dictate terms in Russia.
Lavrov was the one who devised the snapback in the JCPOA. I forget exactly what, but some part of it was really not nice to Iran.
“[…] or how russia invaded iran in 1941.”
It was a double operation, since the UK also cooperated with the USSR to invade and occupy Iran.
Russia also cooperated with the UK to intervene militarily and overthrow the constitutional order that the Iranians had fought for during their Constitutional Revolution (1905-1911), subsequently reinstating the previous autocratic monarchical regime. They did that not just once, but twice: in 1908 and 1911.
The Iranians have every reason to be suspect of Russia, that’s for sure, especially over the Putin years.
To expand your point on the S300 system, the Iranian’s paid for them in 2007 and only started getting delivery of the systems they had paid for in 2015(!), with a lawsuit or two thrown in for good measure.
Armscontrol.org: (December 2016) Russia Completes S-300 Delivery to Iran
New Trump Truth Social – [TACO curious? Bloviating? Ramblings of a fool?]
I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called “Straight?” That would get some of our non-responsive “Allies” in gear, and fast!!! President DJT
There’s a follow up fwiw
Remember, for all of those absolute “fools” out there, Iran is considered, by everyone, to be the NUMBER ONE STATE SPONSOR OF TERROR. We are rapidly putting them out of business!
Typically projecting Trump, everyone considers US and/or isreal as the number one state sponsor of terrorism.
As far as state sponsors of terror go, I’m pretty sure the USA can justifiably claim to have held the number one spot for decades now.
When he was just rambling on about sharks, it was funny. This, not so much.
After Biden greenlit the genocide, the writing was on the wall that he would lose the presidency. They could have wound it down and forced the Zionist entity to stop rather than leaving it in Trump’s hands. But they did not. Which means the entire US establishment is OK with all of this.
New weird Bibi vid also.This one combines the world’s worst comedy double act (Mike Huckabee as the straight man) with a sociopath vibing secret kill list.
https://x.com/netanyahu/status/2033938254831956091
His hair looks weird but I’m thinking it’s just AI image polishing.
Dude is more unnerving when he fakes geniality than when he’s in standard aggressive sociopath mode.
Is it too early to start normalizing the term ‘AI Bibi’ yet?
Re India’s restaurants that were mentioned in this post. I heard that they are no longer deep frying food anymore in them as it uses too much LPG gas which they do not have enough of. Never saw that coming.
This one has been making the rounds yesterday. See Bibi’s left hand @ 0:12.
Yeah, really sketchy.
Also, although cuckabee looks typically ‘human’ (pale, age spots, dandruff, etc), Aibibi looks nearly Simpson-esque and totally unblemished skin. Jaundiced, maybe?
And does he always wear velcro sneakers with a business suit?
On Russia’s $900 M weapons package: Big if true.. but is it? Anyone have any corroborating sources?
Even if approved, shipping them deploying them, and manning them will take a long time, unless Iran lets a large number of Russians into their country to do their thing…in which case things will get complicated for all sides.
Got done a bit late. Please refresh your browsers and re-skim. Some material was added up top as well as later on
You are continuing with the great posts Yves. I learn so much here. Thank you!
Yves.came across this this morning, looked innerestin, and have been reading through all day on my breaks.
much above my paygrade, but it seems rather important…as well as up yer alley, as it were.
https://www.thetechbubble.info/p/how-much-a-dollar-cost
tl;dr: trump just killed AI,lol.
Israeli reports of air strikes on Iranian hydrocarbon infrastructure today.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-890393
Oh that was stupid if true. Or are they trying to deke Iran into a response that gives Israel a pretext for going nuclear?
Even if so, Wilkerson discusses that even nukes won’t be terribly effective against Iran given its size. I think that was in the Diesen video
> Even if so, Wilkerson discusses that even nukes won’t be terribly effective against Iran given its size. I think that was in the Diesen video
It was. He also talked about w/Nima repeating the “they’d need to fire more than a dozen) but in less detail.
Now being picked up by FT and other sources, but with the spin that “Iran says..”
Yes, and Perera has now posted that “Iran just published satellite photographs of four Gulf petrochemical facilities with identical Arabic warnings overlaid in red: evacuate immediately, military strikes within hours.” The Middle East is the largest polyethylene exporter, which is used extensively in food packaging and transport. Another escalation in the economic war.
Link: https://substack.com/@shanakaanslemperera/note/c-229601851
The nuclear aspect of the conflict is quite concerning. Wilkerson said about 20 bombs would be the likely number IIRC. One would do little. That 20 might be enough, in addition to incinerating millions of civilians, to be sufficient to cause a nuclear winter phenomenon to occur. If you are worried about these straight being closed, that would be worse – mass global starvation for starters…
That said a megalomaniac might do it.
On the other hand, I read here at some point in recent weeks, that possibly Iran had purchased a nuclear missile or warhead(s?) from NKorea, IIRC in or around 2010, stored in NKorea. Perhaps just a rumor, someone said strategic ambiguity. Today there is a completed train line from China to Iran. Perhaps, with assassinations of the former Iranian leadership, new leaders are ok with a nuclear deterrent?
And it’s been mentioned maybe Pakistan (perhaps a rogue General’s statement but?) could retaliate. Russia also has a defense pact with Iran.
One hopes that possibly, Bibi would think twice – or perhaps his order would not be carried out, as the response could mean the vaporization of most of his country. Though he may care far more for himself than for his country, those Israelis executing the nuclear bombing might not comply.
“…Wilkerson discusses that even nukes won’t be terribly effective against Iran given its size.” Really? What does ‘effective’ mean? Say in the normative sense. In the words of that good old boy Bruce King, “That would be like opening a box of Pandoras.” Way too many ex-military brass yakking away these days. Maybe that’s why Platner, a regular grunt, is such a breath of fresh air.
I suggest you listen to his argument. This is his bailiwick, not yours.
Respectfully, My US Army MOS was 436, Nuclear Weapons Technician. So, despite my lowly rank, it actually was my bailiwick for three years.
He was speaking
1. In terms the damage 20 nukes would do to Iran
2. Strategic effects.
You have not made a counterargument, just tried argument from expertise when his is still much greater than yours, and I guarantee in knowledge of the region too.
YS: ..from expertise when his is still much greater than yours
I listened to Wilkerson’s argument last night.
[1] Re. strategic effects, Wilkerson would arguably be correct if the strategy was to try and destroy Iranian C&C centers, based on the depths of Cold War era US centers NORAD at Cheyenne Mountain — approx 600 meters of granite overhead, maybe equal to 2,000 ft of regular rock cover and Raven Rock, which was built into a mountain with hundreds of feet of rock cover i.e. at such depths, humans might very well survive and Iranian physicists are certainly good enough to have figured out how deep Iranian C&C centers need to be to survive nuclear blasts.
[2] BUT I was surprised to hear Wilkerson say — I may have misheard him — that airburst nuclear detonations are necessarily worse than ground blasts, because Chernobyl. (Huh?)
Not so. Ground blasts produce more — vastly more — radioactive particulate matter and fallout spread than airbursts. See forex —
Nukes: Surface Blast vs Air Blast
http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2019/ph241/abbate2/
https://www.atomicarchive.com/resources/documents/effects/glasstone-dolan/chapter3.html
Or Chapter 3 from The Effects of Nuclear Weapons
by Glasstone & Dolan, 1977, the DOD bible on this stuff
https://www.deepspace.ucsb.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Effects-of-Nuclear-Weapons-1977-3rd-edition-complete.pdf
As was mentioned in comments a few days ago.
The MEU being sent from Okinawa does not seem to be being reinforced by other ground troops.To my knowledge rumors of the 82nd Airborne being alerted have not been substantiated.
IMHO the only practical use for the MEU by itself is for a Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO). They may be getting ready to pull out civilians in mass.
Pulling civilians out would fit with the end of interceptors.
Russia’s $900M Missile System Just Landed in Iran — America Has No Defense Against It
Wow. It’s a new day, and it appears that we’ve entered a new phase of the war. The author states.
Every aircraft, every fuel depot, every command center, every ammunition storage facility at every American installation in the Gulf can now be hit by a weapon that no American defensive system has ever successfully intercepted. And,
Centcom has issued what officials describe as operational pause directives for all non-essential missions within S400 range.
Wow.
Remember how US/NATO sent all those weapons to Ukraine? Payback is a bitch.
[Reuters] US encourages Syrian action against Hezbollah, Damascus is hesitant, sources say
The United States has encouraged Syria to consider sending forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah, but Damascus is reluctant to embark on such a mission for fear of being sucked into the war in the Middle East and inflaming sectarian tensions, five people briefed on the matter said.
— Re-posted from yesterday’s Iran war update. This sounds like a case of “let’s you and him fight”. Have Syria and Hezbollah beat up on each other, deflecting the latter as least to some extent away from Israel, softening up the situation for a supposed 450,000 reserve (5% of the Israeli population?!? I don’t think so) invasion, and after that is all said and done Israel maintains and perhaps even extends the territory it has captured in Syria for eventual annexation. My suspicion is that the Syrian government will continue to respond with a polite “no thank you”.
CNN Headline:
Iran’s chokehold on Hormuz threatens India’s beloved samosas and chai.
Does this count as a rung up on the escalation ladder?
It comes off jokey but India moves because of its roadside dhabas. They feed hundreds of millions every single day, especially truck and rickshaw drivers. It will severely mess up logistics because these rather poor workers will need to get food elsewhere. Access to cheap LP gas bottles is a constant worry across the subcontinent – not just for restaurants and chai wallas. I imagine that people will substitute firewood for home cooking, if we get to a complete breakdown in supply, which is another big problem.
Temple Beth CNN
The fate of Ben Gurion airport will be an indicator of the outcome of this war. If Iran’s missile arsenal is not depleted by U.S. and Israeli strikes, then Iran will be able to destroy the airport, a vital commercial and military asset. If the airport continues to function, then we will know that Iran’s offensive potential has been neutralized.
Maybe not. Iran has been warning people to leave that country.
Also there were reports yesterday that Iran had started destroying ISR train stations. There is one rail line that moves people North-South. It is also used for troop movements.
This seems wrong. Iran positively wants Israelis with second passports to flee the country forever.
The airport and rail transit and port infrastructure should be prime targets if the aim is to degrade Israeli logistics and resupply. And obviously jets in their hangars or on the runway at military bases. How hard is it to do that such that repair is not an easy proposition? Russia has been trying that approach in Ukraine, but with mixed success (for instance, they seem to have to keep bombing the Starokostantinov air base repeatedly to keep it from being used). Israel’s biggest advantage right now seems to be the number of traitors and spies still operating in Iran that allow precise targeting of the Iranian leaders. Iran seemingly has no ability to do the same thing (as far as we know…Netanyahu, Katz, Smotrich, and Ben Gvir have not been acknowledged as dead by the regime, so we have to presume for now that they are still alive and hiding like rats somewhere safe).
Israel Railway will be a pushover:-
.Ukraine (large) has 23,000 km of rail
.Israel (small) has 1,138 km (707 miles) of rail, essentially along one (1) line
btw :-
.a cyber attack on Israel Railway circa 5 days ago caused authorities to deem all train stations unsafe for use as air raid shelters (source: mil. blogger on X, i forget who)
.Israel Railway HQ is located at Lod Station, presenting Iran with a 2 for 1 target opportunity
Jonestown redux, Stockholm syndrom, or really good hash? Looking for plausable explainations here…
‘A deluxe war’: Why Israeli support for the battle with Iran has stayed so high
Surveys by the Institute for National Security Studies likewise show overall support holding firm. Its first poll, released on March 3, found that 81% of Israelis backed the operation. In a second poll released on Tuesday, the number was 78.5%.
…
The latest IDI survey found that 79% of Jews feel somewhat or very protected from Iran’s attacks. Among Arabs, the number was 15%.
If US public support for the war continues to erode, likely because of consumer rebellion, US politicians will seriously be put into a bind between their constituents concerns and those of their AIPAC paymasters.
Of course, martial law could help to allieviate this dillema…
The Institute for National Security Studies is located on the campus of Tel Aviv university with which it is affiliated In a country where taking even one picture of the carnage brings at least five years in in prison, one would anticipate considerable bias toward answering ” support the operations.” As regards the percentage of Arabs, the question is not regarding support but protection. There has been considerable controversy over Arabs and guest workers using the shelters, notably not inclusive of non Jewish. While the law allows, they are simply blocked or discouraged. Also, there are none in areas heavily populated by Palestinians.
Way, way better than hash, man.
It’s called religion-based superiority and delusions of grandeur.
The west has let them think they can get away with everything for almost 80 years.
They are just trying to get rid of Amalek and find a Red Heifer. Nothing religious/cultish about that.
There was a time when secular American liberals supported Israel as a modern socialist bastion surrounded by Islamic religious fanatics. But the suicide bombings stopped even as the Israelis turned to ever more Biblical explanations for their behavior. The never very true liberal myth has been boiled like a frog over the past decades since Likud took over. Everything is opportunistic and transactional–just like our president.
i recall a couple or three documentaries i watched long ago(as in pre-internet) about the kibbutzim…and came away inspired.
i count that as relatively foundational to what i have been doing out here.
but then i learned about all the zionazi chosen people bullshit.
lol.
also, michener’s ‘the source’, which i first read when i moved out here, to a place with similar landforms and climate…made me want to grow olives(i was the first out here to even contemplate it, but didnt have the resources)
the rub, is i find a lot to admire about the jews…(israel’=’wrestling with god’)…but want the zionists to go into perdition.
all of this, since the gaza genocide, is gonna haunt non-zionist jews for a long, long while.
There are reports of an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure, including on CNBC. Professor Marandi commented on X: Iran is ready for total war and will have a firm response.
Based on prior warnings from Iran, their response is likely to be an attack on infrastructure in the monarchies.
If that tit-for-tat spirals up, the straight will be a non-issue. There would be no gulf oil for years, worst case.
DD Geopolitcs on Twitter (7min ago)
🇮🇷🇸🇦🇦🇪🇶🇦 Iranian media linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued an urgent warning to civilians near the following sites:
🔸️SAMREF Refinery – Saudi Arabia
🔸️Al Hosn Gas Field – UAE
🔸️Jubail Petrochemical Complex – Saudi Arabia
🔸️Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex & Mesaieed Holding (Chevron-affiliated) – Qatar
🔸️Ras Laffan Refinery (Phases 1 & 2) – Qatar
The statement says these locations are now considered legitimate targets due to ongoing regional escalation. Civilians and personnel in the vicinity are instructed to evacuate immediately and move to safe distances to protect their lives.
It also reiterates that Iran previously warned regional authorities against aligning with external pressure and entering a path of escalation. The statement holds those governments fully responsible for the consequences of their decisions
Team z looks cornered with the only choices being escalate or admit defeat.
I get an uneasy feeling when I think about the USS Gerald R. Ford. It looks like bait.
Gerald R. Ford is heading to Souda Bay naval base at Crete for a week of repair — which, by the way, is within range of Iranian hypersonic missiles.
What if Iran waited until the Ford was ready to pull out, and then hit it with a couple of missiles?
Better to hit near that carrier which would be much more demoralizing as sinking that carrier would enrage Americans who would then suddenly support this war.
Better to take out the Souda Bay base after an evacuation warning. A lot if leftist Greeks would applaud and the Ford would gave to retreat to Italy or Spain….
The Cretans I’ve spoken with would definitely celebrate if the US were driven out. And there were many “Zionists not welcome here” signs and others to that effect in Crete last year along the major east/west highway. They don’t like the Israeli tourists, and they don’t appreciate the Israeli colonization of their island much either. A friend told me his town might turn into “little Israel” by the time I go back for another visit.
Take it out just before the ship berths, ideally under tug, so the crew are demoralised further.
why should Iran care about upsetting Americans? Aragchi said in an interview that, if the US wanted to send troops in, let them come.
Iran isn’t worried about upsetting Americans, but the bigger worry would be the deranged psychopaths in DC (plural because Orangeman isn’t the only one) could very well launch nukes in response to a US carrier blowing up.
If I were in charge of Iran, if the morons send naval convoy through the strait, I would target the smaller ships (frigates destroyers etc) rather than go for a carrier.
im 80 someide years behind on such things…but what are the ‘escape pods’ like on a carrier?
is there even any consideration of such?
surely they still have lifeboats and those floaty ring things?
and how many thousands of people on one of those things?
and, too, would sinking a belligerent carrier really rally the american people, at this point?…i hafta admit that it would out where i live. i already abjure in speaking in the feedstore, etc…unless i am asked, directly.
Could be that the crews of the carriers will prove sufficient to render the carriers irrelevant to the war. God bless em, every one.
And it’s not like there’s no historical precedent for that sort of thing.
Russian battleship Potemkin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_battleship_Potemkin#Mutiny
Axios / Barak Ravid (the Mossadiest of journalists)
@BarakRavid
29m
🚨A U.S. defense official confirmed the Israeli strike on the gas facility in Iran was coordinated with the Trump administration
—-
I don’t trust Ravid at all. And I wonder if it was with Trump himself or other figures.
Ravid is “ex” Israeli intelligence. Why anyone would think he is non biased is beyond me
Good enough for Axios.
Allegedly “ex.” Probably still on active duty, unofficially.
Are those plants around the Persian gulf or outside? I would think destroying palnts around the gulf would reduce the value of controlling Hormuz
On the news tonight they talked about 100 Ukrainians being stationed in the various Gulf states due to their anti-drone expertise. Then you add in the fact that the US has made a whole bunch of drones which are a carbon copy of the Iranian Shahed drones. That strikes me a good combination to launch false flag attacks and the like on various targets with the fact that it was Ukrainians doing this providing good deniability for the US & Israel.
Does that free Russia to strike “Ukrainian” targets in various parts of Middle East, especially if they are done by Russian “voluteers” in Iranian uniform?
Iran’s South Pars gas field is hit, sending energy prices soaring. (NY Times)
This isn’t going to end well, I don’t think.
It’s a weird situation where I guess MAD doesn’t apply; The Israeli’s are going to test whether Iran is going to actually do what it says it’ll do.
MAD depends upon rational actors, though. That is not Israel.
This is the second time NC has remarked on Trump’s body odor, for NC to do this indicates that the allegation is well sourced if anonymous..
And that is very bad news indeed, because it indicates that Trump is rotting while still alive…
Literally rotting while “running” USG.
Vance is no bargain, however he is not overtly insane, someone whose body and mind are literally rotting away seems to me to be a greater danger to the World.
“Putrid” odor, Uh oh.
‘
This is the first time I have posted on this.
Wilkerson said that in his Nima video, and I doubt he would have done so if he did not have more than one contact reporting that.
Admittedly, it could have been one original source getting to Wilkerson through 2+ channels, leading Wilkerson to think it was >1 as opposed to 1 sighting
But he would not say that if it was not from someone credible, as in someone who would get in proximity to Trump.
Trump: only the “little people” take showers.
Perhaps it doesn’t matter whether it is true as the mental deterioration is ever more obvious. A more important question might be what is going on with Netanyahu who is being as elusive as Trump is ubiquitous. Many say this only ends when the Israelis cry uncle.
On the VT piece of Russian hardware transfer to Iran, the writing is exactly the same style as the AI China guy’s YouTube videos (ever-changing channels). Where I have cross-checked, they have been seemingly accurate – for example, Asian guy reported on heavy damage at Ben Gurion airport – I checked, and MSM reported Ben Gurion was hit ({snark} but the MSM then sang happy songs of no real damage thanks to the effort of all the puppies and kittens – so cute {/snark}). Asian Guy also reported of underwater launch tunnels, which Alistaire Crooke confirmed a few days later (so not scraping his transcripts).
OTH, Asian guy has multiple times asserted that US controls Iranian airspace (which is patently false – where are the videos of jets over Tehran or the sound of jets during explosions caught on video/ Alistaire Crooke) – but then went on to explain that airspace control is not a determining war factor – airpower has never caused regime change.
This story is consistent with Larry Wilkerson reporting, to I think Rachel Blevins, that the US Navy is moving another 300 km further away. Stanislav has sussed that the latest Russian hardware (planes and S-400) are almost certainly being run by members of the Russian military (as happened in the Vietnam war – Soviets flew planes – or most recently with sheep-dipped NATO running the Patriots in Ukraine). This likely greatly shortens the time to get running. Then they wait for the B2s to enter Iranian airspace.
Transfer of Iskanders to Iran, if true, is a game-changer. The range of the earliest Iskanders is 500 km, the latest variant is 1000-1500 km.
I still can’t find another new source that confirms all the info in the VT foreign affairs release. There’s some AI stuff though. Can anybody confirm that the story is true?
‘Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
@shanaka86
JUST IN: The US Navy is investigating whether sailors aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford deliberately set fire to their own ship to end the deployment.’
Understandable if true. I think that they were supposed to be out for only six months but it keeps on getting extended again and again. By the time they get back to the US they would have been gone for nearly a year and you miss a lot of family events in that amount of time. Maybe the Navy brass do not want to blame their brand new carrier and certainly they won’t want to blame themselves for agreeing to all the extensions so it is easier to just try to blame a bunch of swabbies and be done with it. If morale is so low on this carrier, what is it like on the other navy ships in this region?
They had to go to the bathroom and couldn’t hold it any longer.
To be fair, installing a vacuum sewage system in a combat vessel is incredibly bad design even if it worked.
Taco Tuesday blowback?
Perhaps the sailors are contemplating a pardon for any subversive actions will be forthcoming.
It would be consistent with the ship’s namesake, who is famous for the Nixon pardon, as Nixon had suffered enough and the pardon would help heal the nation.
If some sailors are found guilty of sabotage, they may have easily qualified for pardons under the “has suffered enough” justification used by Gerald R. Ford himself in 1974.
Perhaps few of the sailors know that their carrier is named after someone LBJ characterized as “played too much football without a helmet”.
Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure and storage facilities, part of the South Pars gas field. South Pars accounts for about 75% of Iran’s natural gas production about 80% of the country’s power grid runs on natural gas.
This is a massive escalation in the conflict.
Striking civilian infrastructure marks the beginning of a new phase of the war, from limited clashes to full-scale economic warfare, giving Iran every right to respond in kind to any attack.
Some updates
Bloomberg shows Brent up to $109 from $100 earlier in the day, banner headline:
Iran’s Threats to Gulf Facilities Push Up Energy Prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-18/iran-latest-strait-of-hormuz-news-oil-prices
And per reader sighting above:
Iran Warns Gulf Nations of Major Response After Gas Field Strike
From the live feed:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-18/iran-warns-gulf-nations-of-major-response-after-gas-field-strike
Things are moving fast – I note that Tasnim says the retaliation will be “in the coming hours”..
From Bloomberg:
“These centers have become direct and legitimate targets and will be targeted in the coming hours,” Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reports.
Listed facilities include:
Qatar: Ras Laffan refinery phase 1 and 2, Mesaieed Petrochemical
Saudi Arabia: Samref refinery, Jubail petrochemical complex
UAE: Al Hosn gas field
This is very interesting.
According to Wikipedia, Samref is in Yanbu. So instead of going for Ras Tanura, presumably Saudi Aramco’s crown jewel, the message here is, “trying to circumvent Hormuz by channelling production through Yanbu in the Red Sea is not going to work”. Besides, Samref will really hurt, at 64,000 m³/d, it’s not that much smaller than Ras Tanura at 87,000 m³/d.
And if you add Jubail… Sasref and Satorp combined outsize Ras Tanura at 112,500 m³/d. If Iran incapacitates the three targets for good, that’s an oil shock baked in, no?
They’ve issued a similar warning for Haifa as well now.
This is crazypants. Iran is not going to lay down and take this but will strike back. As an example, Qatar shut down its LPG installations and we heard that it will take several weeks to bring it back online. But if it is turned to ash, then it will take years for this to happen. Just because you can attack a target does not mean that you should. I’ve said a coupla times that we are headed for a world-wide recession but if Trump & Israel keep this sort of crap up, we may end up with a world depression. If by attacking this facility the intent was to cripple the Iranian power grid, perhaps the Iranians should return the complement to Israel
This is crazypants.
Haven’t we been saying this about western leadership, both political and business, for years?
Their abusive game is disruption and decomposition, followed by a reconstruction that removes any barrier to total control. Hasn’t it been posited that palantir is the metastasis of TIA. And here we are being asked to sacrifice for these lords of chaos while they build surveillance and robots to protect their ill gotten gains.Remember larry ellison thinks once you are under complete surveillance you will behave. Has anybody noticed they’re all white guys? Them and all the psycho religious nutcases marching into the al aqsa mosque with their palm fronds.There’s more than a whiff of boilerplate white supremacy going on here. As everything old is new again, we’re back at the stage where there’s a dragon at the mouth of a cave filled to overflowing with filfthy lucre. The whole operation has never made any sense from any perspective other than move fast and break things under the assumption that their native superiority will prevail because of course it will and as to pain and suffering well sh!t happens, learn to [fill in the blank].
@Rev hopefully Iran will only destroy/strike one or two of the targets, but hold back on the others so that they can be used as leverage in negotiations.
Which would be a win for the rest of the world.
DD Geopolitics
@DD_Geopolitics
45m
🇮🇷 Spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters:
Fuel, energy, and gas infrastructure at the source of aggression will be burned and reduced to ashes at the earliest opportunity. This is a direct warning following the attack on Iran’s southern energy facilities.
Holy shit.
This whole SNAFU to FUBAR situation reminds me of the fights / brawls I witnessed (and occasionally participated in) while a young metal head in high school and college. Groups of young men, generally inebriated and getting more, often with someone’s screeching girl friend or partner egging them on, would take a small disagreement and work it up in to a frenzy that ended with everyone fighting (and occasionally someone getting the crap kicked out of them or seriously hospitalized, there are some real wolves among the sheep, so to speak). This war between Israel and the US elite and Iran (with Russia and presumably China in the corner) is rapidly spinning out of control – or moving to Netanyahu’s presumptive plan to actually send a nuke or seven to Iran.
At this point it is getting down right scary.
One factor that no one seems to be considering is how the Chinese will react to all of this. I lived for many years in China – though my Mandarin is incredibly rusty – and a couple of factors that many in the West are oblivious to are (a) the Chinese are still INCREDIBLY angry about their so called Century of Humiliation under the British, Japanese, and Americans and will only consider the matter resolved when all three are in the dust [literally!] and (b) the Chinese generally consider the Israelis as leading the US for decades. I’ve seen countless tweets and news opinion pieces that refer to Jerusalem as the capital of the US. I believe they’d let the US destroy itself in the Middle East.
While the Americans are obsessed with the idea that the PRC would invade Taiwan, I believe the PRC would prefer to let it just fall in to its lap in a generation or two. That said, if it gets ugly I believe they would blockade the island if the US is distracted and belligerent enough.
I believe the PRC would prefer to let it just fall in to its lap in a generation or two.
Yes. Unfortunately, the US has been playing serious games in the last three months, involving sending heavy-duty weapons system to Taiwan to weaponize it against the mainland China much as Ukraine was weaponized against Russia, which have not been adequately reported.
Beijing has thus been signaling back that it’s prepared to preempt that if it must. I believe Xi’s purge of the generals was about that.
This escalation is gravely critical!!!
May everyone here stay cautious, please keep your eyes open and take extra care of your loved ones.
It has begun. On Thomas Keith I’m seeing videos of what is described as strikes on Saudi gas reserves. The fireballs are enormous.
You must not have got the memo: Iran are done negotiating.
First: If that field is a joint operation by Iran and Qatar, does that put them closer as allies? What are the chances Qatar pulls out of the mediation/US lackey sphere and into Iran’s?
Second: This gives Iran the excuse they need to wipe out israeli power grids and desalinization plants. Why don’t they?
it would be a death sentence for the Palestinians
I guess I thought israel had already cut off power/water/food to Gaza. If true such strikes would mostly affect Israelis.
as to the first point, the gas field being a joint operation means that the field stretches from Iran to Qatari territory and each is exploiting it from its own side, so if the Iranian side is destroyed, Qatar can continue to deplete it from its side. This makes them competitors, so Iran is pretty much forced to destroy Qatar’s ability to exploit it so it not lose out.
I guess Trump thinks that US being oil/gas exporter, setting the Gulf on fire will benefit him? But for this to work, he would need to establish two tier pricing of fossil fuels – one for the US and the other for exported to foreigners. I wonder how easy it will be to do this.
Unless the U.S. and Israel are looking for an excuse to bring on the marines or escalate to nuclear (Terrorist fanatics are blowing up energy infrastructure! We have no choice!), this is going full Tropic Thunder. A typewriting monkey has a better chance of keying Hamlet than these characters have of coming up with something other than “Yeah? I double-dare you!”
Then again, we can’t rule out spite. This could be DJT’s way of sticking it to allies who Bartleby’d his SOS to open the Strait of Hormuz but need energy from the Gulf more than the U.S. does. A rule of thumb for today may be to come up with the lowest, dumbest, meanest, craziest motive, then ratchet it down a notch or two. That will be the likeliest one.
I enjoyed your post in today’s links
Thanks, tegnost, pleased to hear it.
I love your phallokantian handle. And your Melvile-inspired neologism, I could elaborate but of course I prefer not to. ;) But I need to know, can we know the dingus in itself?
[Claps delightedly] Thank you for preferring to comment, Giovanni Barca.
As for your query, if you look through my Substack you may find an illustration of Kant in the act of contemplating that very question.
Haarertz is blocked in my location so I cannot verify this is a story/something on their live blog.
Account will be known to many here.
Megatron
@Megatron_ron
1h
BREAKING:
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 Israeli Haaretz reports that Trump has decided to go to the end in his war with the regime in Iran until it falls
He no longer listens to the advice of his advisors, and difficult days are coming for the world
I don’t see it on Haarertz as of 15.07 ET
Oh my! But you know, there are ways to stop him if (and when) needed.
Which regeime?
I’m not joking.
Tulsi Gabbard currently giving testimony at Senate Intelligence Hearing. Contradicting Trump’s pretext for war directly.
Per Guardian live blog;
“As a result of Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was obliterated. There has been no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability,” Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, said in prepared testimony to the Senate.
—-
Daniel Davis is streaming the hearing
I see a lot of indignant calls for Gabbard to resign out in the Twitterverse, but I think she should take a cue from corporate America and “quiet quit.” If she resigns, Trump will just nominate someone truly evil to replace her. (Maybe John Bolton is still seeking employment?)
She should stick around, do the bare minimum, and drop the occasional truth bomb. Here is another one – “Russia has the upper hand in Ukraine”. I bet that made Lindsey Graham grind his teeth.
Nuclear site or ‘empty hall’? Mystery of Iran’s new enrichment facility at Isfahan
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi says inspectors have ‘many questions’ about underground site
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/03/18/iran-has-new-underground-nuclear-site-iaea-reveals/
World Health Organization Prepares for Nuclear Scenario, Including Weapons Use, in Iran
https://united24media.com/latest-news/world-health-organization-prepares-for-nuclear-scenario-including-weapons-use-in-iran-16995
Europe could offer to help Trump on Iran — if he backs Ukraine, Finland’s Stubb suggests
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-help-donald-trump-iran-war-ukraine-finland-alexander-stubb/
Ukraine faces missile shortage due to Middle East war, says Zelensky
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8r813x66jo
I’m sure Russia can send him some, overnight.
No returns though!
More than a dozen $16M Reaper drones have been destroyed in Iran operations, US officials say
https://abcnews.com/Politics/dozen-16m-reaper-drones-destroyed-iran-operations-us/story?id=131163787
I love the smell of my tax dollars burning in the morning.
The dollar costs are thrown around a lot, but it’s the material losses that matter in the immediate term; America really can just magic money into existence, as the currency issuer, and even nationalize key industries and stop producing consumer goods, but without sufficient industrial capacity and know how, we still cannot so easily replace these toys. And that assumes we have all the inputs, and for example with rare earths, we do not.
Agreed! It’s perplexing how the analysts we follow, like Wilkerson and Johnson, will shift between, ahem, exchange value and use/material value. Sometimes, as when toting up the millions involved in taking out a $50,000 Shahed drone, it has some critical weight. But, as you’re saying, it quickly loses track of the vital point of material limits on warmaking, which is so important in understanding strategic limits and escalation pressures. Pretty relevant to the US and Israel raising the stakes today as their interceptor inventories dwindle.
I think two Iranian economist recently started doubting this $50,000 for Shahed, as it’s a Western estimate and sounds a tad too high. So they compiled a list of Iranian products of similar complexity/resource consumption with known production costs, and came up with a “more realistic” range of $4000 – $7000 for one Shahed.
When you start to think about it, it’s basically made of a $500 moped engine, $150 worth of carbon fiber, $200 mini computer, bunch of $20 GPS antennas and half a dozen $15 servo or step motors. Double the price for “mil-grade” and you still have a few thousand left for the propeller, paint, payload, booster and all the labor.
They’ll have to pull assets from other theaters to the Ramadan War.
The Eye of Sauron will loose focus on the rest of Middle Earth.
Retired general: Trump ‘completely mismanaged’ Iran war
https://thehill.com/national-security/5788438-retired-general-slams-trump-iran/
Russia Says It “Supports Iran,” Rejecting Neutrality in Middle East War
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russia-says-it-supports-iran-rejecting-neutrality-in-middle-east-war-16622
With respect to the general blaming Trump, sounds like a lot of copium for the MIlitary Industry Complex being exposed as a fraud and not living up to all the hype our taxpayer dollars were supposedly paying for.
JD Vance Played Key Part in Anti-War Bombshell Resignation Plot
Top intelligence official Joe Kent met with the vice president before his very public resignation.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/jd-vance-played-key-part-in-anti-war-bombshell-resignation-plot-joe-kent-and-tulsi-gabbard/
Bolton says he briefed Trump on Iran scenarios: ‘Hard to believe that he forgot’
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5789541-iran-war-donald-trump-john-bolton-retaliation/
What $5 diesel fuel means for the U.S. economy
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/17/diesel-gas-prices-economy
In CA diesel has only been under $5 for a short period and this was in the last 2 months. Of course it is higher now. I bought an older Dodge/Sprinter recently so I keep my eye on the fuel price. Now that we are headed for the end days of capitalism it is going to be living in a “van down by the river” for me sooner than I anticipated.
Updates / thoughts:
– US / Israel attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure is the thick end of the wedge. It is also a huge step towards nuclear exchange because either Iran overreacts to recover the initiative or it will keep being pushed into tit for tat, always a step behind.
– Iran can attack the GCC energy complex but the only purpose in this is demonstrative, to threaten then into splitting from America, to have them tap out and side with Iran on Israel, Gaza and decolonisation of the Gulf. Otherwise Iran is just burning down its neighbours’ houses.
– Iran’s best escalation is to take out Israel’s water plants. It only takes six missiles. Israel’s neighbours would take the Palestinian refugees (in border camps). Israelis may not find a welcome.
– the speculation on Realist War Twitter is that Kent has resigned as a warning to the USA of a false flag event. Conspiracy theory territory – why not be more direct? – but it cannot be discounted. Larijani gave a warning just before his death, that Iran has no attack planned against the USA itself and any attack is an (Israeli?) false flag.
– Realist War Twitter also thinks Putin is tacitly Zionist – the “evidence” is a comment Pytin once made about their being a second Russian nation in Israel – and sold out Lebanon and Syria multiple times to Israel and this is why Iran has chosen to rely on its own military technology etc.
Regarding your last point, I don’t know if it’s correct to label him a secret Zionist, but it does speak to the fact that as head of state, he has many factions to contend with and there is most definitely a Zionist one in Russia, backed by a lot of rubles. Then of course there is Zelensky’s Jewish heritage and the likely involvement of the Israelis in assisting Ukraine. Given the Zionist entity’s proclivity for assassinations, I imagine he needs to walk a fine line if he wants to continue fogging a mirror himself.
Trump’s DOGE Cuts Slashed Staff That Handled Middle Eastern Oil and Gas Crises
Six months before going to war in Iran, the U.S. government cut staff that would have been central to the current situation.
https://newrepublic.com/post/207857/doge-oil-gas-experts-fired-state-department-iran-war
https://www.notus.org/trump-white-house/trump-doge-cuts-middle-eastern-oil-gas-crises
‘We Sincerely Thank India’: Iran Thanks India For 1st Medical Aid Shipment To Iran As Conflict Continues
https://www.oneindia.com/india/we-sincerely-thank-india-iran-thanks-india-for-sending-first-medical-aid-shipment-to-iran-as-conf-8030547.html
U.S. intelligence says Iran’s regime is consolidating power
Despite withering airstrikes, officials see a weakened but more hard-line government in Tehran, backed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps security forces.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/16/iran-regime-intelligence-irgc-war/
France ready to help U.S. secure Strait of Hormuz — but not while drones and missiles are flying
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/france-strait-of-hormuz-ships-attacks-trump-allies-insurance-drones.html
[yesterday] France will never take part in operations to unblock Hormuz Strait amid hostilities, says Macron
https://www.reuters.com/world/france-will-never-take-part-operations-unblock-hormuz-strait-amid-hostilities-2026-03-17/
Gulf Oil Behemoths Deepen Output Cuts as Hormuz Stays Blocked
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-16/uae-oil-production-is-down-by-almost-half-amid-hormuz-closure
About 90 ships cross the Strait of Hormuz as Iran exports millions of barrels of oil despite the war
https://apnews.com/article/ships-iran-oil-china-us-trump-hormuz-82a9acb473837f1bf7a821d0c3f95205
Japan sees Russian oil as ‘extremely important’ for energy security: Akazawa
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/lng/031526-japan-sees-russian-oil-as-extremely-important-for-energy-security-akazawa
The era of US dominance in economic warfare is over
https://www.ft.com/content/ae458591-5941-45f1-bf7b-7110bc35eb88
Russia Responds After Trump Says He Plans to ‘Take’ Cuba
The Russian Foreign Ministry said it would continue to support Cuba amid Trump’s threats of a takeover, Reuters reported.
“Russia reaffirms its unwavering solidarity with the government and fraternal people of Cuba,” the ministry said. “We strongly condemn attempts of gross interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state, intimidation, and the use of illegal unilateral restrictive measures.”
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-responds-after-trump-says-he-plans-to-take-cuba-11691483
Maritime News has been providing daily updates of the number of vessels that have transited the strait as well as the number of vessels that have come under attack (currently at 17):
Strait of Hormuz daily maritime risk and transit monitor – March 18
Interestingly, of the 89 vessels that have transited the strait this month, 29 of them occurred on the 1st and there were no transits at all yesterday. Their graph leaves something to be desired but it looks like maybe 10 of them are “shadow” vessels and 30 of them are “sanctioned”.
Thailand offers Iran food for plastic pellets, fertiliser
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3218603/thailand-offers-iran-food-for-plastic-pellets-fertiliser.
Cuba partially restores power as President Díaz-Canel vows ‘unyielding resistance’ to U.S. oil blockade
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/cuba-crisis-trump-energy-power-blackout-fuel-havana.html
Iran seizes hundreds of Starlink devices
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry said it has confiscated hundreds of Starlink satellite internet systems, alleging they were smuggled into the country by the United States and Israel.
https://news.az/news/iran-seizes-hundreds-of-starlink-devices
When the petrol lights come on: How NZ’s fuel escalation levels work
The fuel escalation process in the plan includes four levels. The plan says an emergency may progress from one level to the next – due to something like a damaged pipeline that is taking longer than expected to repair – or move straight to a high level, in the case of a “sudden, major infrastructure disruption expected to last longer than a few days”.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/top/589831/when-the-petrol-lights-come-on-how-nz-s-fuel-escalation-levels-work
Iran says nuclear doctrine unlikely to change, Hormuz Strait needs new protocol
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-doctrine-not-likely-change-foreign-minister-says-2026-03-18/
I wonder how high this ranks among the stupidest Wars started by empires ?
It’s definitely in the top three and may well become the most stupid, ever.
This War is stupid to the point of insanity, the Iranians were crystal clear about what they would do if attacked and everyone who looked at the data knew that they could do what they had promised to do.
No upside for the USA and we are beginning to see how bad the downside will be.
Also, prosecuting Joe Kent would be a very risky move, he’s not Kiriakou and going after him is going to have serious consequences.
Look for the Tucker Carlson interview soonest.
More updates:
Are we seeing the beginning of Article 25 induced by none other than VP JD?
LWT, coincidentally, just broadcast this past week a brief history:
John Oliver discusses J.D. Vance, what he really believes, who he is without Donald Trump, and – most importantly – what he looks like without a beard.
https://youtu.be/NtRPLCso0Sw?si=M4cEB_zlzDQ8x0UD
I had the same thought. Are Trump’s days numbered?
Regime change, oh the irony.
Robert Barnes says the 25th amendment is unlikely to succeed as long as Trump is lucid enough to defend himself in Congress.
Danny Haiphong and Alastair Crooke this morning. utube.~1hr, 7+ minutes.
Alastair Crooke: Iran’s Missiles AVENGE Larijani, Tel Aviv BURNS as Trump Panics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFG3CFRyOeA
Sweden says Iran has executed a Swedish citizen
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-citizen-executed-iran-swedens-foreign-minister-says-2026-03-18/
The gas station nearest to me up .20 overnight to 3.60. That’s about a dollar over the pre war price three weeks ago and doubtless, as the WS guys say, “number go up” for the immediate future.
Good thing my small city is only about 8 miles across.
Our local cheap gas indie station has raised the price of ‘regular’ gas $1.10 a gallon this past week. From $2.29 to $3.39 per gallon, that works out to just under a 50% rise.
N. Los Angeles County diesel yesterday: $6.50/gal.
In Berkeley CA diesel is now $6.80, up from $6.50 last week.
To make you feel better about that, premium diesel in the UK just went from £1.65 to £1.85. Per litre!
Roughly £7.40/ US gallon or $10/gallon….
Ordinary diesel has jumped proportionately more, from £1.35 to £1.65.
Here in Southern NSW, Australia diesel has gone from $1.68 to $2.85 a litre in just over a week.
Thank you Yves and everyone else for the rolling updates in these dark and very crazy times.
If, like me, you are in occasional need of light relief, and satire does the trick, read on.
New Zealand Considers US Request To Send Air Force’s Cessna 206 With Rob, Nick And Sam To Operate It
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/new-zealand-considers-us-request-to-send-air-forces-cessna-206-with-rob-nick-and-sam-to-operate-it/
That would probably be 20% of our operational air force – a significant commitment!
So this was published in Iranian media – either IRNA or Pars Today, I think – yesterday some hours BEFORE Larijani’s death. It is purported to be the transcript of the last conversation between Larijani and Khamenei before the latter’s death.
The point isn’t whether this is factual or not – this is the “image” of Khamenei’s death and ethos that is being painted for the Iranian people in their native media space. And to a significant extent it also speaks to Larijani’s own (and those of other Iranian leaders) attitudes insofar as personal safety.
Of course, some may point out that Khamenei II (Mojtada) is yet to make a public appearance. I am guessing, however, this is more due to his wounds from the attack; it is difficult for me to imagine that he does not understand what his appearance at, say, next Friday’s prayers, would do for the nation’s morale.
Double-translation (Farsi-Russian-English), so may feel a little clunky. Supposedly the original is quite poetic.
—–
Dialogue between Ali Larijani and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei before the latter’s martyrdom:
Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, came to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with a cold report – but not with a cold heart.
After a long pause, he said:
“My leader…This time the threat is not a passing trifle about more pressure. The decision has been made. The enemy wishes to kill you, even if the sky is lit up with missiles. We have prepared a fortified place, a place carefully guarded and concealed from all eyes – a place that bombs cannot easily reach, and that aircraft cannot strike. This is not hiding, my leader…a temporary disappearance, until the storm has passed.”
The leader remaind silent for a time, then slowly rose, as if history itself rose with him. He approached, and asked calmly:
“When you came to me…what answer did you expect?”
Larijani wavered, but replied:
“I expected that you will refuse. But my leader, the nation needs you, and the battle needs its commander.”
The leader smiled – a smile of both sadness and wisdom.
“You are right in the language of states and security. But let us talk in a language older than politics. How can I ask a soldier to meet his death if his commander has disappeared? How can I ask the people to hold firm…if I am the first who leaves the field of danger?”
He paused, as if the door to Karballah opened in his chest.
“We are the sons of a man by the name of Hussein Ibn Ali – the imam who knew his fate, and nevertheless went towards it, as to a promise by Allah. He did not hide, just because his army was small – because he possessed a much larger army in the heavens.”
Larijani replied:
“But my leader, history is not a single page. We have the Hidden Imam, whose disappearance taught us that sometimes, hiding is a choice of wisdom, not fear.”
The leader responded with a sigh:
“The difference, master Larijani, is that when the Imam disappeared, he had no army, nor a nation that could defend the Truth. But we…How can I disappear when I have a nation that fights? How can I disappear while my soldiers are under fire? When a leader is alone, hiding may be wisdom. When an entire nation is behind him, his disappearance weigh heavily on history’s conscience.”
Larijani remained silent, unable to reply.
The leader shook his hand, thanking him for his concern. After Larijani left, he gathered his family and told him about the proposal – a safe place where they could remain until the war ends.
They looked upon him as children regarding the meaning of dignity, and said simply:
“We are where you are.”
And so, the man remained where he was – not because he did not know of the danger, but because he knew something much deeper: some leaders, when they pass unto death, may also pass from the memory of their nation. But however important it may be how we live, it is equally important how we die.
Noble words which I’d like think are real. Certainly more distinguished than anything coming from Western leadership in a long while.
Shorter version here.
Certainly, both men are aptly naned! Stuff reminiscent of what I used to read about lives of saints and martyrs. We are truly the modern day Rome, complete with our own King Hetod. (It would delicious if we also got to be Vespasian, but we are stuck at the Nero stage for now…)
Group that helped plan January 6 event awarded $13 million in no-bid contracts from Trump team: report
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-event-firm-jan-6-no-bid-contracts-b2941027.html
UAE pledges to supply crude oil to S. Korea with top priority: presidential aide
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260318005600315
Trump ally warns US economy not strong enough to cope with Iran war
https://www.ft.com/content/51ad00f4-1c70-45df-9eb1-fe8038af1fd7?syn-25a6b1a6=1
How ignorance, misunderstanding and obfuscation ended Iran nuclear talks
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/ignorance-misunderstanding-obfuscation-iran-nuclear-talks-trump
Trump Aides Predict Major Split With Netanyahu Over Iran War
https://www.thedailybeast.com/president-donald-trumps-aides-predict-major-split-with-israeli-pm-benjamin-netanyahu-over-iran-war/
Vance says rising gas prices a ‘temporary blip’
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5790032-vance-high-gas-prices/
Echoes of Bernanke’s March 2007 “subprime is contained.”
Yes, and what was the lesson that was not learned then by today’s markets? Or the Thai baht crisis ( LTCM blow up) in 1997?
It is the OBS derivative market that is the true Sword of Damocles which hangs over global markets.
I was trading back in 1997 – were you?
Countries propose safe corridor to free 20,000 seafarers stranded in Gulf Reuters
“The purpose of this framework would be to facilitate the safe evacuation of merchant ships,” it said. “This measure aims to protect the lives of seafarers.”
How many ships sat in the Suez Canal after it closed from the 1967 war until 1975? I recall pictures of rusted hulks. 1974 Suez Canal Clearance Operation
Hormuz could be shut for a very long time.
Famously one British crew had to remain on the canal for months, possibly years, because the ship owner was playing chicken over their salary. If they left against orders, they would lose their pay for the voyage (and I don’t think they were entitled for pay while in port). I think it had to become a scandal for the situation to be resolved.
Iran executes man accused of spying for Israel, Mizan reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-executes-man-accused-spying-israel-mizan-reports-2026-03-18/
Airline SAS to cancel 1,000 flights in April due to high fuel prices, DI reports
https://www.reuters.com/business/airline-sas-cancel-1000-flights-april-due-high-fuel-prices-di-reports-2026-03-17/
I quit Trump’s White House. This is what really could bring him down
Miles Taylor: “I know something about how this President handles inconvenient truths. I served in the first Trump administration as his chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security, and I resigned in protest because of what I saw. On matters of life and death, I encountered a president whose national security decision-making was ad hoc, impulsive and often recklessly indifferent to facts that complicated his preferred course of action.
Trump didn’t weigh options. He made decisions and then demanded justifications after the fact, including when policies were foreseeably unlawful. What I’m watching now, with Kent’s resignation and the administration’s furious scramble to discredit him, looks disturbingly familiar. I’ve lived it. And I suspect I know what happens next.
Kent’s protest resignation is a crack in what is beginning to look like a fracturing dam.”
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/quit-trumps-white-house-what-bring-down-4301659
Strait of Hormuz closure hits ethylene supplies in Japan
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260317/p2g/00m/0na/008000c
Brazilian truckers weigh strike as diesel prices jump amid Middle East conflict
https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/brazilian-truckers-weigh-strike-diesel-prices-jump-amid-middle-east-conflict-2026-03-17/
Former Trump appointee: MAGA movement is ‘dead’
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5788194-maga-movement-carrie-boller/
Breaking: Trump waives U.S. shipping law [Jones Act] for 60 days to steady oil market
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/18/trump-jones-act-oil-iran-war.html
US eases Venezuela oil sanctions as Trump seeks to boost world oil supply during Iran war
https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-war-venezuela-oil-supplies-prices-3a3ca446459b3ab0127c08ad0808cc15
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-march-18-2026
Iranians weren’t joking. Links have video. Think 2nd and 3rd link are same strike. Big fire!
@FaytuksNetwork
20m
Fire at Ras Laffan refinery in northern Qatar following an Iranian strike
—
@stellarman22
1h
BREAKING: According to preliminary geo-location and local reports, Iran has successfully struck the Riyadh Saudi Aramco Refinery Facility
—
@ME_Observer_
1h
⚡️🚨Saudi Arabia: Bombing of an oil facility that the Revolutionary Guard had asked to be evacuated in Riyadh
Wow. Bloomberg is behind….so much for keeping investors well informed.
Qatar Energy confirms the Ras Laffan bit on twitter.
@qatarenergy
58m
QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City
QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks.
Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused. All personnel have been accounted for and no casualties have been reported at this time.
QatarEnergy will continue to communicate the latest available
—-
And a bit more kaboom-porn of the Saudi bit. Two missiles. Look like big impacts to my ignorant eye.
——
@MenchOsint is a good and reliable follow for this
Brent futures at nearly 111$ right now
Russia Sends Oil and Gas Tankers to Crisis-Hit Cuba, Defying U.S. Blockade
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/18/russia-sends-oil-and-gas-tankers-to-crisis-hit-cuba-defying-us-blockade-ft-a92264
@Ann at 2:55 pm
Thanks for these articles Ann. Much appreciated.
Re Cuba: 725k barrels of oil – that’s a lot of oil for Cuba. I wonder if the US will try to stop it. Not a good idea. It could cause the Russians to provide direct military support to Iran in response. Perhaps establish missile defence against potential Israeli nukes…
Stanislov Krapivnik on Neutrality Studies yesterday said Putin is coming under pressure to be more aggressive in Ukraine as a result of the war in Iran. The Iranians are pounding US assets and there is no response beyond what would have happened anyway. Maybe Cuba assistance is part of a more aggressive stance.
I thought that’s already happening?
See the VT Foreign Policy article that Yves cited, above.
@Acacia at 5:21 pm
Yes, but there are reports of Russian equipment supplied and then there are Russian anti-air missiles actually flying and hitting targets. Don’t think we’ve seen those yet although Larry Johnson says the refueling plane was shot down. Looks like we may find out soon.
Ordinary Russians can see how the Iranians are slapping around the US in the Middle east and are probably asking why they don’t do the same. Such as shooting down those US drones that give targeting info to the Ukrainians.
Hong Kong flag on the Sea Horse. The US has already stopped two HK flagged tankers. This will be interesting.
Good on them. 👍
Israeli attack on Iranian gas field was threat from Trump to open Hormuz – report (Times of Israel)
Israel’s attack earlier today on Iran’s South Pars gas field — the largest in the world — was fully coordinated with the US, reports Channel 12, and was meant to be a message from US President Donald Trump that he is losing his patience with Iran over its threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the report, further strikes were threatened on Iranian energy facilities.
“Israel assisted operationally in order to send an American message,” a senior Israeli official tells Channel 12. “Either the Strait of Hormuz will be opened and the mines will be removed by the Iranians, or the entire [natural gas] facility will be destroyed, as will other energy facilities.”
—-
Israel channel 12 is far from trustworthy but if true has big implications:
1. Trump dealt directly with the Israelis to get this done and bypassed his own military (?)
2. The man has gone full Scarface-on-the-stairs and is gonna get the whole middle east oil infrastructure destroyed.
4. It’s time for Trump to be removed.
So tired of having to listen to or read anything from this asshat. Where’s Joseph Welch when you need him? 72 years later and he may not be a household name, but his words still reverberate and are familiar to most, even if the context is forgotten.
Trump is despised by everyone who is not a full on nutter, yet the best he ever gets in person is polite disagreement. Is there not one reporter who can speak up to his face when he insults them directly and speak out against his gross immorality? Not a single UN delegate who will stand up and announce to the world that the UN is morally bankrupt after condemning a country who was attacked for having the temerity to fight back? Not a single Congressperson who will put forth articles of impeachment when they are actually deserved? Not one person to even throw a shoe? Just silence in the face of abject depravity.
Ironic that you mention Welch: his antagonist was McCarthy’s creature, Roy Cohn. Trump’s mentor.
But my suspicion is that nobody will ever call Trump out in public, simply because Trump is too slimy to ever allow himself to be that exposed in public. Who’d even get close enough? The WH press correspondents are a joke ever since Helen Thomas was expelled by Obama.
Thanks for mentioning her. She’d be ripping them up right now if she were still alive. One of the best.
Trump might take a bad fall any time soon.
Stay away from…windows? Yup. No windows for the immediate now…❤️🐈⬛
I love the word defenestrate, as it is based on historical events of that nature. Back when windows were far more conducive for that.
Thanks again for Yves and commentariat. So much links to read (sung with the melody of So Much Things To Say by Bob Marley).
Just removed? Quoting Peter, ‘For me, to be with the Lord is gain.’
CNN analyst Barak Ravid confirms:
“Could be an escalation”…? Duh, this IS an escalation.
IRGC Press:
Just the hors d’oeuvre. then.
US warship believed to be carrying additional Marines to Middle East tracked off Singapore
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/17/middleeast/uss-tripoli-marines-middle-east-iran-intl
Per TG Lebanese News channel, Oman crude now $173/bbl.
Also 30+ Iranian speed boats along with support boats active on the Oman side of straight.
Sorry no link
U.S. Intelligence Saw No Change in Iran’s Missile Capabilities Before War
On Wednesday, the director of national intelligence and C.I.A. director contradicted one of the justifications the Trump administration had given for its attacks on Iran.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/world/middleeast/tulsi-gabbard-senate-testimony-iran-war.html
Trump May Not Be Able to End This War
The Islamic Republic is designed to endure crises and fight asymmetric conflicts.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/why-iran-regime-wont-surrender/686422/
Thank you, Ann.
I’m glad to see some oil and gas tankers are coming to Cuba and I am not surprised they are from Russia.
That will buy Russia a lot of good will across the Southern hemisphere, more evidence that Russia understands human beings much better than Western “Leadership”.
A reputation for keeping your deals and not abandoning old allies when they are in need has more than a little value.
It takes humans to understand human beings, you know.
Someone mentioned the anime series Frieren the other day. The antagonists in that series are demons who are, well, not quite malevolently evil, so to speak, but are inherently incapable of empathy and other “human” feelings. So many of them indulge in doing evil just because. Some try to understand and even try to reach out to humans, but still wind up doing evil because they don’t understand humans. We are being ruled by Frieren demons.
Reports indicate a missile strike on an LNG refinery in Bahrain, a key U.S.-linked energy asset, with ongoing impacts at the site and secondary damage extending to the causeway connecting Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, which is reported to be destroyed or heavily damaged following the blast.
https://nitter.poast.org/iwasnevrhere_/status/2034358039889756561#m
Isn’t that causeway the only way out of Bahrain?
Geez, Scott Ritter says Iran needs to bring the pain and take out the entire Gulf Energy Infrastructure. Bringing down all the Gulf Monarchies.
It’s gonna get a whole lot worse for everyone. ugh…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=483Mn6Jl4nQ
Desalination Plants are the next step in the escalation ladder.
IRGC has now threatened to do exactly that: take out the entire Gulf Energy Infrastructure (see link to their statement in my post, above).
Iran is promising that if their own energy infrastructure us hit again, they will make good on this threat.
I assume the Zionists will most likely do it, and Trump will go along with their initiative.
The situation is about to get very ugly.
Dow tumbles more than 750 points to new closing low for 2026, fueled by inflation woes; Fed holds steady on rates
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
QatarEnergy reports ‘extensive damage’ after missile attacks on Ras Laffan industrial city
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/qatarenergy-reports-extensive-damage-after-missile-attacks-ras-laffan-industrial-2026-03-18/
How is Iran able to strike Saudi Arabia without triggering the mutual defense treaty between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan?
We’d have to check the details of the treaty. I think the drafters would be remiss not to include clauses like “if any of the signatories suffers retaliation for attacks on a third party, launched from said signatory’s own territory, and regardless of the identity of the perpetrator, mutual defence clauses shall not be invoked”.
If the whole world knows MBS has been Trump-whispering to get Iran attacked, Pakistan knows too.
Details on the build up of European navies around Cyprus from a journalist who lives there – Strait of Hormuz: US Overreach, EU Ambiguity, and the Unsustainable War Machine, by Elina Xenophontos:
It’s very close to the Bosporus too – so I guess the Russians are … ‘monitoring the situation’.
#Iran
Tulsi
prevaricatingrecalibrating?US intel chief Gabbard says Iran was not rebuilding enrichment prior to war (via Al Jazeera English)
Here is a short damning video of her.
Not answering the question was Iran an immediate threat. Specifically in regards to nuclear threat.
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/z3CK1VGnty4
OMFG … damning indeed.
She had the family-blogging gall to state “it is not the intelligence community’s responsibility to determine what is or is not an imminent threat” … ¡Javier Fernando Cristobal!
No need for the strike-through in my original comment … #LiesLiesLies
An interesting read about what the MEU might be up to:
The operational response to this constraint is the MEU. By inserting a self-contained amphibious force into the landscape, CENTCOM gains the capacity to — at minimum — contest Iranian control of the small islands at the mouth of the Strait, which currently serve as forward staging points for mine-laying and fast-boat interdiction operations.
https://www.faf.ae/home/2026/3/18/how-2500-marines-and-the-uss-tripoli-are-reshaping-the-arc-of-the-iran-war
I wonder how they’ll even get there, though. Where will they be approaching from? Is the boat where they are already the assault ship? I ask because I kinda doubt there’ll be any nearby base for them to depart from by the time the ship arrives. And of course, Russia and China will be telling Iran exactly where the ship is at every moment.
What Makes USS Tripoli Different
The USS Tripoli is not simply a troop transport. It is designed to serve as a flexible platform for crisis response, combining aviation capacity with the ability to support Marine operations from the sea.
The ship can operate F-35B fighter jets and MV-22 Osprey aircraft, giving it a mix of strike, transport and rapid mobility capabilities. That makes it relevant in a range of scenarios, from deterrence and evacuation to contingency planning in a deteriorating security environment. The Journal’s description of a Marine expeditionary unit underscores why the platform matters: an MEU combines ground, aviation, logistics and command elements into one deployable force.
https://indiandefencereview.com/uss-tripoli-deploy-marines-middle-east/
I’ve no idea of how such an assault mission would unfold, but I would expect both sides have gamed this out.
It’s basically a helicopter carrier, with a battalion of troops. In a way, the perfect ship to enforce a blockade with, flying marine contingents to whichever ship they want to stop (in context of how the detachment might be used as explained on several YT channels).
“both sides gamed this out”
I am sure that they did. Many many times over
.
The difference is that the US uses outdated models while Russia, China, and Iran are using current and cutting edge models. A fact that many of the armchair quarterbacks are ignorant of.
It always amazes me to read criticism of the geopolitical and military decisions made by Russia in particular.
PS This is not directed at you.
As War With Iran Hurts Oil Prices, U.S. Turns to Iranian Boats for Help
Iranian-linked ships carrying Russian oil were among those that received temporary exemptions from sanctions, a sign of how dire the energy crisis is becoming.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/business/iran-war-boats-russian-oil.html
South Africa rejects US pressure to distance itself from Iran
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-rejects-us-pressure-distance-itself-iran-2026-03-16/
Trump hasn’t made up his mind on sending Americans into Iran to seize nuclear material, sources say
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-americans-iran-nuclear-material/
Israel’s main airport in flames – At least three planes Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport have caught fire after Iranian missiles strikes. (video)
https://x.com/ashoswai/status/2034372027964936617
That tweet seems to have gone MIA. Blowing up Ben Gurion airport may not matter for ordinary Israelis as the government is letting few Israelis leave via there. But the symbolism is something else.
X post is gone, but Reuters mentions it, although they downplay it quite a bit – the old “hit by debris from intercepted missile” routine. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/three-private-planes-israels-ben-gurion-airport-damaged-by-iran-missile-debris-2026-03-18/
Wonder if anyone was in those private planes when they were hit?
Curious how serious damages to Israel are. The hits on rail infrastructure and the airport seem potentially big, but between the hubbub over GCC energy hits and Israeli censorship, I guess we don’t hear the whole story…but yhe intended audience assuredly is aware, y’d think.
Yes, one tweet scrubbed (censored?), but there are copies:
https://x.com/mehmetiletisim/status/2034437821126103310
https://x.com/huichol19/status/2034437252722364698
https://x.com/BricxNews/status/2034435392557215795
Some private jets were the target — I wonder whose?
Holy crap.
Thanks for this post.
I don’t know about T’s reported increasing dementia or reported odor. That could be partisan name calling. I do think he’s starting to act and respond the way a young teenage boy would respond when he’s in a stressful question/answer situation.
e.g. “I don’t need anybodies help!” Usually, an adult might think that but would have filters in place to stop him from actually saying it out loud in public, imo.
He’s been that way forever. Meanwhile Asian countries are doing things, rationing. While NZ political clowns do nothing.
Meanwhile politicians in Oz are doing their very best Corporal Jones imitation of ‘Don’t panic!’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg (1:45 mins)
Economists are ‘loath’ to call a recession, but the odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist
https://fortune.com/2026/03/18/economic-recession-odds-increasing-iran-oil-prices-moody/
UAE condemns targeting of South Pars gas field, after Iran blames US, Israel
The UAE condemned the targeting on Wednesday of Iranian facilities in a gas field shared with Qatar, calling the attack attributed by Iran to the US and Israel a “dangerous escalation.”
“The United Arab Emirates affirmed that targeting energy facilities linked to the South Pars gas field in the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is an extension of the North Field in the sisterly State of Qatar, constitutes a dangerous escalation,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/03/18/uae-condemns-targeting-of-south-pars-gas-field-after-iran-blames-us-israel
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c24d410m3g4t?post=asset%3Aa150d6ee-30fd-4471-be29-21baf0cd213e#post
I’ll believe he means it if there are US airstrikes on IDF airfields to stop them. (Like what should have happened after USS Liberty)
Good cop tells bad cop: “enough”.
North Korea fuel prices spike 25% amid Iran war before stabilizing
Diesel and gasoline prices remain elevated across North Korea despite partial recovery from early-March peak
https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korea-fuel-prices-spike-25-amid-iran-war-before-stabilizing/
US national debt surges past $39 trillion just weeks into war in Iran
https://apnews.com/article/us-national-deficit-hits-39-million-6ff73495bae701b5c009d3da5515ca3a
Good thing for the North Koreans that they share a border with a country that has lots of diesel and fuel and is full of people named Ivan-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea%E2%80%93Russia_border
It’s extremely difficutl to assess the conflict in West Asia because both sides keep score differently and information is suppressed or skewed by everyone. In the event, there are differences between tactical and strategic successes. The otcome will be decided by mathamatics, strategy, and morale. Sor far it seems, the US is relying on a flawed ,if non existant strategy , & it also lacks the component of morale (public support. Iran seems to have a coherent strategy and, so far, exhibits, popular support. In short, this brings mathematics into the picture as each side pursues targets to effectively weaken the other. Unless the US/Israel can destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles & drones, Iran will systematically and sucessfully attrit Israel, US bases, and, also, threaten each Gulf State with economic disaster.
Today, a friend who is an economist with expertise in the oil industry, asked me: Does Trump, have an off ramp. I suggested: No. I, in turn, asked: What would be the price of gas in May in the US.? He said: Higher than today. We left the conversation hanging with the unknown tolerance of the US citizen to pay at the pump for Trump’s fun excusion into the Gulf (on behalf on Israel). Predicting outcomes was undoable becaause there are two many variables that could occur as a result of an ‘escalation’ game. In parting, I mentioned to keep any eye on Saudi Arabia. The annual Haij is in June ( 1.5 + million visitors were anticipated). In addition , SA has a pipeline to the Red Sea. And IMO, the Houthis are standing by in ‘reserve’.
As an after thought, I got to wondering if Yemen and Iran would stir emotions of a shared spiritual faith, of an anti colonial sentiment, and of a sense of identity among the masses of West Asia (Egypt to Pakistan) that would put Trump, the Great Destroyer, hopelessly adrift in a Sea of Islam, i.e guns and money are not the only things that motivate people.
it seems a bit to me that the US wants to destroy everything and declare itself the winner by virtue of taking the least damage. Everything except for the Americas, that is, and the US expects to rule those.
Fed Reserve Chair Says Trump’s Policies Mostly to Blame for Inflation
Jerome Powell says there’s a clear reason inflation isn’t slowing down.
https://newrepublic.com/post/207951/federal-reserve-chair-powell-trump-policies-inflation
Oil extends gains to rise 5.6% after Iran attacks Gulf energy facilities
NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) – Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday and climbed further in extended trade after Iran attacked several energy facilities across the Middle Eastfollowing a strike on its South Pars gas field, a major escalation in its war with the U.S. and Israel.
Brent futures were up 5.6% in post-settlement trading, extending gains after settling up 3.8% at $107.38. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude extended gains to 4% after closing up 11 cents, or 0.1%, at $96.32.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-drop-us-crude-inventories-show-an-increase-2026-03-18/
On your first link, it sounds like Chairman Powell upped his trolling game.
Pentagon seeks more than $200 billion in budget request for Iran war, Washington Post reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/pentagon-seeks-more-than-200-billion-budget-request-iran-war-washington-post-2026-03-18/
Greenpeace targets PM’s office over possible NZ minerals deal with US
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/590051/greenpeace-targets-pm-s-office-over-possible-nz-minerals-deal-with-us
Saudi analyst says kingdom will activate defence pact with Pakistan if it joins Iran war
Analyst says Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is on the table for Saudi Arabia if it joins war
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-analyst-says-kingdom-will-activate-defence-pact-pakistan-if-it-joins-war-iran
The Saudis may be bluffing. Actually, I’m confident they’re bluffing.
I tried to find the text of the defence pact, at least in Arabic so I could run it through a machine translator, but no dice. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Mutual_Defence_Agreement
The full text wasn’t published. The parties did issue a communiqué stating that “aggression against one is aggression against the other”, but the opacity around the pact seems deliberate, if you ask me.
Pakistan and Iran seem to be in most cordial terms these days, exchanging pleasantries while the Middle East burns. Pakistan has said it would nuke anyone who nuked another muslim country (or something along these lines, quoting from memory) and Iran thanked it for its support.
Pakistan has zero incentive to get into this mess right now. Especially because it knows the Saudis are goading USrael against Iran and just pretending to forbid use their airspace to attack Iran. Why would Pakistan rush to aid SA if the latter is an enabler of this mess?
Besides, we discussed this a few days ago… if Pakistan nukes Iran, they’re downwind of the fallout.
That doesn’t mean Pakistan isn’t acting behind the scenes to dissuade Iran from pummelling SA too hard, but I very much doubt they’ll intervene militarily on the side of SA anytime soon, even less so because there’s a low-burn war going on with Afghanistan right now.
SA does have a US-provided modern air force and could add to the damage imposed by USrael on Iran. But that would probably result in their entire oil infrastructure being destroyed, and then the days of the House of Saud would be counted. Which they may be anyway.
I’d throw in that Pakistan has troubles of its own. Theres the low burn dust up with Afghanistan, and more urgent is the ongoing thing with India over the Indus. This latter subject strikes me as another ticking bomb in the region.
Exclusive: US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-weighs-military-reinforcements-iran-war-enters-possible-new-phase-2026-03-18/
Trump leaves a big smelly pile, then walks away.
Meanwhile, in Iran:
To the last!
LOL. Unfortunately Khan lost to Kirk if I remember correctly. William Shatner for President!!
Seyed Marandi with Glenn Diesen
Seyed M. Marandi: U.S. Attacked World’s Largest Gas Field & Iran Declares Economic War
50 min.
4 hours ago
https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/seyed-m-marandi-us-attacked-worlds
Yuge fireball at Qatar’s Pearl GTL, world’s largest LNG plant
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/198069
Yowsers:
QatarEnergy’s Pearl GTL Complex Hit in Iranian Strike: Fires Rage at Ras Laffan – Critical Air Separation Units Likely Destroyed, Multi-Year Outage Expected
Berlin will be happy to hear this news.
They’re not going to fix that with a box wrench, a couple of hose clamps and a soda can…
Fox: Joe Kent reportedly under FBI investigation for allegedly leaking classified information
https://x.com/WellsJorda89710/status/2034441720054587458
As predicted in the post. It was the FBI that investigated John Kirakou.
Exclusive / FBI investigates intelligence aide who resigned over war
https://www.semafor.com/article/03/18/2026/fbi-investigates-national-security-aide-who-resigned-over-war
Japan mulls permissible SDF role in Hormuz amid constraints
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16427120
Most of the vassals are smart enough to sit this one out — but not Takaichi. She is an über hawk and REALLY REALLY wants to send Japanese ships on a mission there, no matter how much legal parsing is required.
She will likely begin saying the Hormuz situation is why Article 9 of the Constitution needs to be sh*tcanned.
From the bottom of my whiskey glass, the GC royalty will be lining up to bend the knee and right quick at that.
“Military. base for sale. Fixer-upper.”
There’s a huge disconnect between what I’m seeing in MSM (Guardian, Telegraph, Al Jazeera etc) and what’s obviously true from reliable accounts and using ones brain.
MSM: acknowledging Qatar damage and fire (which Qatar itself has acknowledged). If even mentioning, going with respective government line that “all missiles intercepted” in Saudi, Bahrain, UAE. Some mention gov reports of “minor damage from debris after intercepts.
AJ is reporting angry reactions from govs, expelling diplomat’s. Saudis indicating they will join war.
Twitter: video clearly shows Saudi strikes, Fars reports also hitting Yanbu. Nothing from UAE or Bahrain which have very strict censorship laws in place. Also ships off UAE on fire.
My brain: I do not believe the 100% interception claims for a second. Look at the video of Riyadh strikes and the speed of that missile and tell me that gets intercepted anywhere.
My take: Iran will have damaged fairly extensively all the energy targets it announced. It will now stop.
If US again strikes Iranian energy, Iran will launch another round.
I also do not understand how WTI is only $111.6 as I write this.
—-
Please forgive the lack of links/citations, this is a flyby comment as I’m gonna try to turn off the news today and get some actual work done.
We shall see
Powell says the global oil crisis may have only temporary economic effects (CNN)
Interesting analysis and discussion of environmental fallout from Pars field attack, https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-south-pars-pulse-why-the-energy/comments
Syria unveils plan to eliminate Assad’s chemical weapons
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/syria-unveils-plan-eliminate-assads-chemical-weapons-2026-03-18/
Saudi Arabia hosts Arab, Islamic foreign ministers for emergency talks on regional security
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2636764/saudi-arabia
The Kent warning: When truth escapes the war machine
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/18/the-kent-warning-when-truth-escapes-the-war-machine
The U.S. attacked Iran to show its power but the war is already lost. Epic Fury looks like an Epic Fail
https://fortune.com/2026/03/18/us-iran-war-lost-strategic-miscalculation-trump/
Gov. JB Pritzker criticizes AIPAC after pro-Israel group spent heavily in Illinois primary
https://apnews.com/article/illinois-election-primary-aipac-money-5eaac433bc1d0854fb5ad5a35ca707a0
Ex-counterterrorism official says he wasn’t allowed to share concerns about Iran war with Trump
https://apnews.com/article/iran-joe-kent-counterterrorism-trump-5d8c700f4460f9c202ef1a003cea4ba1
Joe Kent says he was told ‘you need to stop’ investigating Charlie Kirk assassination
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/justice/4496957/joe-kent-charlie-kirk-assassination-investigation/
As we head for day 20 of this war/kinetic action/excursion, it seems to me that the longer Iran stays in the fight, the worse it will get for Team Epstein.
Russia and China should be doubling down on sending weapons to Tehran. Maybe even send some politicians on a tour, much like Starmer and Macron doing the Kyiv shuffle.
Can Lavrov play a mean guitar in a Tehran cafe?
$200 Oil No Longer Crazy Idea as Middle East Supply Collapses
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/200-Oil-No-Longer-Crazy-Idea-as-Middle-East-Supply-Collapses.html
OilPrice finally sees the light…
A month ago, any analyst suggesting international oil prices could soar all the way to $200 per barrel would have been laughed out of the studio. Now, some are beginning to acknowledge that this is a real possibility, and with good reason…
Now if they had been reading Naked Capitalism, they would have recognized this possibility a month ago.
Update to an earlier comment:
There’s no other confirmation on the Yanbu attack and it may be a false claim. It wasn’t on the list the Iranians released beforehand.
—
Also Trump going off. Notice his version is “we didn’t know” which is different from what Axios/Israelis are saying. Hard to parse.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar – In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
This is at least better than some of the versions up-thread. He’s leaving an off ramp, although if you believe “NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL” I have a bridge I’d like to sell you.
Re: confirmation on the Yanbu attack
Sabereen News:
Looks kinda hazy to me, but the resolution is not very high.
Iran War Will Lower Energy Prices (WSJ)
And the huffing glue award goes to
Peter Navarro
I took a quick detour through it. Boy, you aren’t kidding about the larding! There’s a fine line between my country, right or wrong, and being clinically insane. Foreign Affairs has crossed it. They really can’t see the tsunami hitting the world (FYI, here in Sri Lanka, we already have gasoline rationing in place, complete with scan cards, companies registered for the amount of gasoline they can get, and the government declaring a 4 day work week to ease the problem – like to see the US or UK respond so quickly or as well. /snark).
But back to the FA piece.They appear to be too cowardly to say that the war is in the hands of the Iranians. Neither Trump, nor Bibi, can end the shooting or open the Straits. It’s up to the Iranians. How can anyone supposedly an expert in the field offer so much incorrect argument and shallow assumptions? Have we forgotten that honesty, courage, and strength of character that are the bedrock of being an expert?
“No tanks for You”
The president of Tajikistan posted a video of a very large truck convoy heading into Iran called “humanitarian aid”. I wonder what all could be on those trucks.
https://x.com/EmomaliRahmonTJ/status/2034184224287215852?s=20
https://gcaptain.com/the-hormuz-hypothesis-what-if-the-u-s-navy-isnt-in-a-hurry-to-reopen-the-strait/
This is beyond silly. If you meant this seriously, it does not speak well of your critical thinking skills.
https://t.me/two_majors/71401
Seriously wild news if this is true. Have not seen it posted anywhere except on the Two Majors Telegram channel. Will see if I can verify.
I believe this is true but the fact it was kept a secret tells us that Russia, China, and Iran wanted the US and Israel to start this war because they felt that their moment has finally come. Had they publicised it, maybe it would have deterred the war, but the US was bound to keep destroying the world. This is a global regime change. Eurasia and Africa are being transferred into Russo-Chinese hands, so the US wants to destroy as much of it as they can, and retreat into its sphere of influence in the Americas.
Muddying the water, attempting to adjust the narrative I guess:
Guardian appears to reverse tit for tat sequence, says iran attacked gas facility first, and leaves out by whom actually attacked Iran
On the Guardian website: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/middle-east-war-why-attacks-gasfield-south-pars-are-a-major-escalation
“On Tuesday a successful Iranian drone attack resulted in operations at the Shah gasfield in Abu Dhabi being suspended. The site can produce 1.28bn standard cubic feet of gas a day and supplies about 20% of the UAE’s gas supply and 5% of the world’s granulated sulphur used in phosphate fertilisers.
On Wednesday an Iranian production facility for the South Pars gasfield, which it shares with Qatar across the Gulf, was struck. The field is the largest in the world and is the biggest source of domestic energy in Iran, which sometimes struggles to produce enough electricity.
The strike, which prompted a threat from Tehran of further retaliation against energy infrastructure, was widely reported in Israeli media to have been carried out by Israel with US consent, though neither country immediately confirmed responsibility.
The US and Israel had previously held back from targeting Iran’s energy production facilities in the Gulf in an attempt to avoid Iranian retaliation against the oil and gas industries of its neighbours….”