[This Iran war post is even lighter than usual at launch because Links. I hope to have it done by 8:00 AM EDT, at worst 8:30 AM EDT]
The sort-of-good news for the day is that Trump still seems to be stuck on his current rung of the escalation ladder in the Iran war. He has doubled down on whinging about how none of America’s putative (ex-Israel) allies are willing to bail him out of the mess he created, by sending naval assets on a suicidal mission to try to open the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. However, it is not as if that means he is interested in or able to retreat. Israel, in the face of more strikes by Iran, just claimed it has killed the Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. As we have seen (witness Hezbollah) and experts have confirmed, decapitation strikes do not stop anything other than trivial actors in a conflict. And Iran is not that.
Mind you, Israel vowed to continue assassinations of Iranian top officials, including the Supreme Leader, so I do not see the latest attacks as escalation, as opposed to intensification. Others differ. The current Bloomberg banner headline:
The rejection of Trump’s pleas for help confirm US isolation as its unprovoked, illegal war against Iran is already set to impose massive costs on the world, even if it were to stop now.
But the Administration is successfully exploiting normalcy bias in its messaging, with investors and it appears a lot of public in the US and non-Asian advanced economies unduly complacent about how bad the downside could be. We’ll give some examples below of this syndrome.
Even if Trump were to seek a way out (many have seen his recent confused messaging as proof that he is trying to find an off ramp), it’s not clear how he can. He and Pete Hegseth have been larding the armed services, who normally can and do check misguided civilian leader, which armageddon-loving Christian Zionist zealots. Hawks like Jack Keane and Lindsay Graham, who keep selling the line that Iran is on the verge of falling apart, still get plenty of air time on Fox. And Zionist billionaires are likely stiffening Trump’s spine in private. So the costs of the war, both economically and in further loss of what is left of the appearance of US primacy, will have to mount much higher before they could conceivably weaken the sway of these centrally-placed forces.
Even though the Europeans have politely (or on the case of Germany, not so politely) failed to take up Trump’s request for support with forcing open the Strait of Hormuz, don’t expect them to do much in the way of applying any leverage to get Trump to climb down. Stanislav Krapivnik, in a new interview with former UK diplomat Ian Proud, explains how European weapons systems depend critically on US provided components. Given that the EU is committed to remilitarizing to defend itself against the marauding Russian bear, it can’t break with the US on anything as consequential as the Iran war, as opposed to engaging in mere passivity.
Nevertheless, a surprisingly blunt subject line in the Politico EU morning newsletter: “EU to Trump: You’re on your own”
Trump has also put off his summit with Xi. As much as one can make a case that it makes him look weak, it would be inappropriate to make such a trip in the middle of a big war even if it was going well. However, the flip side is that this cancellation shows Trump is not interested in finding a way out. China could conceivably broker an understanding (except for the wee problem that the US is totally untrustworthy and cannot deliver Israel either). Nevertheless, an official take from Bloomberg Trump Says He Asked China to Delay Xi Summit Due to Iran War:
- President Donald Trump said he had requested China delay a summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for about a month, citing the need to oversee the Iran war.
- Trump stated that he wants to be in Washington due to the war and has requested a delay of a month or so, adding that he has a very good relationship with China.
- The decision to delay the summit may not be a major disappointment for Beijing, as China had previously proposed a later date to allow more time for preparations.
Iran is working over the Gulf States mightily to destroy US bases and deter them from letting them be rebuilt later. Krapivnik reported yesterday that Saudi Arabia has told the US that it is on its own that they won’t even assist the US with evacuation when it comes to that. But that again is far short of standing up to the US. The UAE is being hit particularly hard. In the last 24 hours, Iran bombed Fujairah, the UAE’s big oil port. From the BBC:
The attack on the Fujairah is a big deal. It appears to be in retaliation for the strike on oil facilities in Tehran, a de facto chemical weapons strike, that was launched from the UAE> From CNBC in UAE’s Fujairah oil trading hub targeted by a drone attack, causing large fire:
A drone attack at the United Arab Emirates’ key oil trading hub of Fujairah triggered a large fire, authorities said on Monday, with no injuries reported….
Oil loading operations at the major oil bunkering hub had been suspended as a result of the drone attack…
Fujairah, one of the world’s top hubs for storing crude and fuels, is located on the eastern seaboard of the UAE and serves as a key shipping hub for the wider region.
Note that Iran has attacked the Dubai airport three times since the war began, each time with drone (at least one was only with a single drone; the latest flight halt was due to a “drone-related incident” that resulted in a fire near the airport). This is more than enough to rattle passengers and flight crews.
As Iran is (perhaps only in retaliation) hitting Gulf oil assets, it is offering a carrot in allowing friendly countries to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
It is already in discussions with Iran. From Reuters in Iraq in talks with Iran to allow oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz
Iraq’s oil minister says Baghdad is in contact with Iran to allow some oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the state news agency reports.
Iraq is also working to resume exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey as it seeks to offset disruptions to shipments caused by the Hormuz crisis, after some vessels were attacked off the Iraqi coast during transfers.
As you can see, Iran has let a few more ships though, including a Pakistani tanker, This image is a screenshot from Mercoglino March 16 presentation of Joint Maritime Information Center report; I was unable to find underlying document viaa short search:
Similarly:
Some ships are starting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz because Iran appears to be allowing limited, pre-approved voyages.
A few non-Iranian tankers, including ships carrying fuel to India, have made it through after negotiations, but overall traffic remains far below… pic.twitter.com/pV3P2R65N4
— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 17, 2026
And from Defense News: Two India carriers secure safe passage through Strait of Hormuz.
This comes as the toll on Gulf States escalates rapidly. For instance, from a new Economist article, America’s war on Iran may bring Bahrain to its knees. Key sections:
Even before the war began, Bahrain was on course to run a budget deficit of more than 10% of GDP this year, owing to the (previously) low oil price and rising debt-servicing costs. At 146% of GDP, its public debts are among the heaviest in the world. Almost a third of government revenue goes on interest payments.
Bahrain used to host a thriving banking industry which, along with fairly modest revenue from oil and gas, sustained a comfortable prosperity. But those days are gone….
The oil and aluminium industries account for more than two-thirds of government revenue and around a quarter of GDP. Both have been hit. BAPCO, the national oil company, has halted some shipments from its Sitra refinery. Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA), which operates the biggest aluminium smelter outside China, has suspended exports…
The main problem is not Iran’s bombardment, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That leaves no way to export oil or aluminium…
There is a long-standing assumption in the Gulf that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will always bail Bahrain out, as they did, along with Kuwait, in 2018. That could well happen again this time. “But you can only bail somebody out if you have the cash yourself—and these countries are suffering, too,” says Khalid Janahi, a former banker.
Bahrain has a further vulnerability that keeps its rulers up at night. With the airport closed, its only connection to the outside world is a 25km causeway to Saudi Arabia. More than 80% of tourists—mostly thirsty Saudis, visiting the closest spot where alcohol is legal—arrive this way. An Iranian attack on the causeway would be a “doomsday scenario”, says a businessman, which would shatter whatever confidence remains.
Weirdly, that story omitted the oft-mentioned elephant in the room: that the substantial Shia population could overthrow the Sunni monarchy. YouTube already has shorts of pretty nasty-looking protests.
Dubai also has a glass jow. From the New York Times in Could This Be the End of Dubai?:
Dubai is on edge. Big banks asked employees to stay away from their office towers. People sheltered in underground parking garages or wherever they could find cover….
Those with means, many of whom had come to Dubai to work in financial firms, hedge funds, family offices, law firms and consultancies, scrambled for commercial flights and private jets out of the Gulf….
The attacks struck at the fundamental premise of Dubai’s model as a new type of global metropolis…less a rooted place with people and history than a blank slate for the exchange of capital. Its success has even spawned a term, “Dubaification” — the spread of the same malls and towers, restaurants, airport lounges and luxury brands that make places feel secure and, despite its proximity to Iran and the now blockaded Strait of Hormuz, out of harm’s way. What could ever go wrong when there are a Nobu and a Louis Vuitton boutique nearby?
I first came to the Emirates about a decade ago to teach a course at New York University’s satellite campus in Abu Dhabi called The Global City, which met every day and used Dubai and Abu Dhabi as our classroom…. N.Y.U. Abu Dhabi has more than 2,000 undergraduates from over 115 countries who speak more than 75 languages — a campus that felt like a sped-up version of the city itself. The students were remarkable, and they were determined to show me a Dubai and an Abu Dhabi beyond the malls and the towers. They took me to the traditional markets, the old souks, the South Asian neighborhoods — the culture that had been there before the building boom and was now, in places, being overrun or erased. They were fascinated by that tension and wanted me to see it too. They pushed back when they felt Westerners judged the place without understanding how people actually lived there…..
Nearly nine in 10 Dubai residents are non-nationals — by far the highest percentage of any major city in the world….Many are from the United Kingdom and the United States, but many more are guest workers who do the service jobs on which the city depends…Even a traffic violation can trigger deportation….
And the Dubai model is spreading. Other cities, including Riyadh, Istanbul, Miami and Doha, are all attempting to adopt some variation on the same basic formula to compete for the same class.
But that duplication also means these cities can be replaceable. If one falters, another steps up to take its place. The elites can flit between them, because any real attachment they feel lies elsewhere.
Economic Times provides a supporting data point via Emirates flying near-empty jets to Dubai as locals depart.
One very remote possibility for a way out of the war sooner rather than later is for the Gulf States together to demand that the US and Israel stop. I do not see that as at all likely given that Bahrain sponsored what Russia and China correctly depicted as an unbalanced UN resolution that criticized only Iran and made no mention that Iran was the victim of an illegal war of choice. OilPrice nevertheless explains that the Gulf States do have the leverage. From What Happens If Gulf Producers Deploy ‘Nuclear Option’ To End Middle East War?:
- The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded about 15 million barrels/day of Gulf oil exports, giving Gulf Cooperation Council producers major leverage in the Middle East conflict.
- Gulf states could deploy an energy “nuclear option” by halting exports entirely, removing up to 20% of global oil supply.
- Doing so, they could potentially force the United States and Israel to reconsider military operations against Iran.
However, the Gulf States could be enlisted to help Trump save face, in making an orchestrated demand that would force Trump into a kabuki capitulation.
Turning to the broader economic front, Yanis Varoufakis had an informative talk with Chris Hedges on how bad things might get. I differ with Varoufakis on parts of his commentary ex this war, such as what caused the 1970s stagflation (the big factor was LBJ refusing to raise taxes and running deficits when at full employment because a tax hike would have been seen as funding an already unpopular war). But his description of the extend of hopium and how second-order economic effects of the war will hurt the US are informative:
I am also not confident of his prognosis that central banks will be able to stop hyperinflation, which results when there is a big loss of productive capacity. Volcker did not take his super high interest rate regime as far as he wanted to because it was starting to break the banking system. Central banks do not have unlimited freedom of action here.
Brent is back over $100 and price pain at the pump in the US gets worse. From Bloomberg in US Diesel Tops $5 a Gallon as War Disrupts Supply Chains:
US diesel rose above $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022, the latest sign of surging fuel price pressures menacing the global economy as the war in Iran continues to disrupt energy supplies.
The nationwide average retail price reached $5.044 a gallon on Monday, according to the American Automobile Association. It has gained sharply since the conflict began….
The jump in US retail diesel prices is the latest surge among fuels that are key to the day-to-day functioning of the global economy. Jet fuel has soared above $200 a barrel and fuel oil — usually a product that trades lower than crude futures, but one that keeps shipping moving — is now close to $140 a barrel.
Diesel is more important than most fuels. Across the world, it powers freight, agriculture, and construction industries. Any spike at the retail level will ripple through the broader economy. Prices have surged faster than most other petroleum-based products because Persian Gulf refineries are major suppliers.
More on economic effects. From Oil Price in Jet Fuel Prices Soar as War in Iran Ripples Through Global Aviation:
As the war in Iran spills over into other parts of the Middle East, energy experts expect the price of several oil and gas products to soar over the coming months, driven by shortages. This will likely affect flight prices, with several airlines warning of anticipated price hikes.
Bye bye tourism, which is important to many countries and part of the US. And expect a hit to vacation home prices.
And Insurance Business describes another vector of damage to shipping companies in Gulf conflict strands 20,000 seafarers – and tests marine insurance limits:
If seafarers refuse to sail into, or continue operating within, the Gulf, owners could face claims linked to unsafe work environments. Where casualties occur, liability for death and personal injury will fall under P&I cover, but any gaps created by war exclusions or sanctions restrictions could complicate recovery and settlement.
South Korea is in three-fire-alarm mode. From Korea Herald Lee calls for measures to handle worst-case scenarios over prolonged Mideast crisis:
President Lee Jae Myung said Tuesday the government should prepare measures to mitigate the potential economic fallout under the worst-case scenario where the Middle East crisis becomes prolonged….
“From now on, we must prepare measures with even the worst-case scenario in mind on the premise that the Middle East situation may be prolonged,” Lee said during a Cabinet meeting held in the administrative city of Sejong.
It is a bit unfair to use Scott Ritter this way, since he is not an economist or a finance expert. But even with his keen appreciation of the complete absence of US military option for victory over Iran (absent some sort of wildly out-of-character Iran own goal), consider this section from a fresh talk with Daniel Davis:
This war can’t go on much longer, Colonel. The American economy won’t…gas was $3.11 last week. It’s $3.75 now and I don’t know what it’s going to be in a week, but I don’t think it’s going down. The price of oil is going up. It was $95 this morning. It’s up to what a $105, $106, maybe even higher at this point in time.
You know, the president can’t let this thing go on forever. All this talk about the war can continue until September. No, it can’t. The war will will continue I think another couple weeks and then Trump will be working with the Chinese and the Russians to to find a way that he could declare victory and get that diplomatic offramp.
This is normalcy bias in action. Ritter cannot conceive how much harm the US economy will suffer if the war goes on, ergo he tells himself it has to stop for the convenience of the US, which started this mess. John Mearsheimer maintains that Iran has concluded that this war will be settled on the battlefield, and not diplomatically, as Ritter posits. And even with Trump recognizing that he is in way over his head, Israel is telling its citizens to expect the war with Iran to continue for another three weeks and potentially months
In keeping, see DropSite in Iranian Officials Say They Have Been Ignoring Witkoff’s Private Requests to Talk:
Behind the scenes, it is the Trump administration that has been asking for talks. Two Iranian officials told Drop Site that Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff personally sent messages to officials in Tehran, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, last week exploring possibilities for resuming negotiations. Iran has not replied to Witkoff. The Iranian officials told Drop Site that Iran has also received messages from the White House via third countries.
Some kinetic war updates. Forgive the producers for calling Hezbollah a proxy as opposed to an ally:
And:
🇮🇷🇮🇱 Apocalypse Tel Aviv (Rishon LeZion)
That orange hellscape you’re watching is Rishon LeZion Israel’s fourth largest city, 270,000 people, sitting ten kilometres from the heart of Tel Aviv.
An Iranian ballistic missile just turned part of it into a wall of fire visible… https://t.co/M7B4IsmEG8 pic.twitter.com/fHzIj7MiE4
— THE ISLANDER (@IslanderWORLD) March 16, 2026
Hindustan Times is mighty keen to showcase how Israel is in a world of hurt:
This is a further bad look in terms of US military prowess. Recall that it was the same Gerald R Ford that suffered from clogged toilets, which some speculated was the result of sabotage:
A laundry fire that takes thirty hours to extinguish on a $13 billion carrier with the most advanced damage control systems in any navy on earth. That displaces 600 crew from their berths. On a ship designed to take battle damage and keep fighting. And the explanation is the…
— Donald J. Gorbachev (@donaldgorbachev) March 17, 2026
We have to stop here. See you tomorrow!
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Let’s speculate a bit.
If Iran does not relent, and the Wall Street crowd, after having oil at $150+ for weeks or months, presents Trump with the incontestable fact that he fucked up and needs to get the country and the world out of the mess ahorita ya, what would Trump’s position become at that moment? Could it be that the US will have to TACO eventually? And would Trump survive that? Is there a possibility that he would resign rather than make such a face-losing decision? Could it be that he won’t make it to the mid-terms?
Iran seems such an unmovable object at the moment, that the possibility of Trump himself breaking into pieces when clashing against it seems real to me.
But JD Vance would be subject to the same evangelical, Zionist and nutter hawk pressures. IMHO things will have to get very bad before their hands are removed from the wheel of power.
Palentir tech billionalre Peter Thiel was Vance’s mentor and largest financial backer – a record breaking donation – during Vance’s Senate campaign. Thiel is to Vance like Miriam is to T, imo.
Peter Thiel, the antichrist in the flesh, is scheduled to give a series of lectures in the Vatican concerning the antichrist. Apparently the lectures were initiated and promoted by various groups of Francoist catholics, and will be similar to the lectures that he gave recently in San Francisco. Just a guess, but I’m figuring that he will finger as the antichrist anybody who denies both The Ascension and Holy spirit of the zeros and ones.
I have often repeated a theory that Vance has a powerful deep-state faction behind him (whoever Palantir (and the part of the CIA they are tight with) has turned, a load of post-neocon Mearsheimerish realists, and non Israel-first fascists from military/Spookdom).
I think the long-term game is to break from the old model and go full America first (and ideally fascist). The Thielites do love Israel, but don’t seem bought/compromised. Also their brand of religious nuttery seems different.
Also, the more the current US military is proven incompetent, the more impetus for the change Palantir/Anduril/saner generals want (meaning end to cost-plus & exquisite white elephants).
Who knows how big this faction is, but I don’t think it’s small. I think this is a long term project since the early War-On-Terror days.
It would take a deal with the dual-citizens, but maybe events on the ground make that more possible.
I guess they don’t need to rush though. They can let the neocons destroy themselves and the Big 5s mil-tech reputation further.
Those are the ones who give me pause too – the Palantir/techbro faction. Trump is doing a lot of damage, but he is largely stomping around and breaking things, throwing a tantrum. The Thielites have a plan, and they’ve already told us what it is – they very much like the Gulf state model with a small group of rulers calling the shots in their own city state, with lots of wealth for the rulers and the hangers on, and the rest of the support population essentially expendable and powerless slaves.
If the rumors are true, the techbro faction is trying to get Trump to back off. My guess is they don’t much like having their data centers targeted by Iranian missiles. Not only does it damage their investment, it also shatters their illusions of becoming ruling despots themselves.
>If the rumors are true, the techbro faction is trying to get Trump to back off
David Sacks has openly called for a TACO
Trump’s AI czar calls for U.S. to ‘get out’ of war and warns Iran has a ‘dead man’s switch’ that could render Gulf states almost uninhabitable (Fortune)
I’d put Dan Caine in the faction also.
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For reasons that I cannot articulate/provide sources for right now, I think they may be strong in the army and navy, and hate the air force.
—–
I need a better name than “Thielite”. It suggests it revolves around Thiel and the techbros and completely misses the mil/spook/gov part. I think Thiel is important, but I think there’s a largely unseen mil-gov part.
Always remember that Palantir was a Thiel-Lonsdale joint enterprise with the CIA. And they have spent decades persuading people inside the military one-by-one.
“Sons of Poindexter”?
“Post neocon realists?”
Shrug… those ideas suck as well :(
I do like Sons of Poindexter but it probably wouldn’t get much traction among the non-news junkies.
How about the Aights, pronounced as two syllables? Or Ai-ghts. Play on the urban slang. Except these AI kids are definitely not alright.
The problem is that Israel can’t get out, and the US can’t get out without abandoning Israel, and the US went in because it wanted to show support for Israel, so creating a big mess and then frustrating your fundamental objective for creating the mess, well, that compounds failure on failure. Plus, there is every reason to believe that Israel must have something incriminating on Trump. The US would need to cave on ME basing and sanctions, Israel would need to re-structure itself and abandon “Greater Israel,” and the Gulf States would have to fork up some reparations money. Although accepting a strategic defeat early probably results in better terms than if things continue and escalate, but its hard to see how US elites can cognitively accept such an outcome given the level of imperial hubris. Not to mention the narcissist in chief having a big L on his forehead.
something with ref to antichrist, perhaps.
or just the terminator people/skynet.
DARPAholics?
> For reasons that I cannot articulate/provide sources for right now, I think they may be strong in the army and navy, and hate the air force.
I don’t know if this is a factor, but I’ll throw out that the home of the Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, is also host to a staggering number of politically-minded Protestant evangelical organizations, including those founded by James Dobson and Charles Colson. ‘Jesus and John Wayne’, Kristen Du Mez is where I picked this up.
I wonder whether this is another version of the Catholic-Protestant divide?
Green Berets also based in Colorado Springs, out of Ft. Carson; including Matthew Livelsberger, the Cybertruck attacker, remember him ?
IIRC, he got memory-holed by the LA fires. 2025 was a busy year.
“the Borg” ?
You will be assimilated. / ;)
“— it’s been intentionally made very difficult for even long-term foreign residents or their children to become Emirati, even after decades of living and working there. The system is designed to rely on migrants while keeping them permanently temporary. That makes it extremely hard to be rooted, to belong, to be attached…”
Doesn’t really even compare to feudal serfs?
The last paragraph of the Dubai article is the clincher:
“…The war is a reminder that no city, no matter how go-go and glamorous, can buy its way out of the forces of history and geography. Any serious disruption — a hurricane, a wildfire, a pandemic, a terrorist attack, a popular uprising, a sudden change in tax law — can send the mobile and the unattached off seeking a new safe haven. That is the defining contradiction of this new kind of ephemeral metropolis. For many, it’s not a real home. And so when the going gets rough, why would they stick around?”
– “Also their brand of religious nuttery seems different.”
I also think that there are “post-neocon realists” (I don’t know if I’d call them “Mearsheimerish”) among the war hawks who would abandon the current nutters in office and back a less suicidal regime – perhaps trading Christian Zionist end-timers for a (pseudo) Catholic elite. After all, a right-wing Catholicism would fit the techno-feudal elitism people like Thiel seem to advocate.
I’ve always viewed Thiel’s “Catholicism” as that of the Grand Inquisitor. Like the Straussian neocons he believes in the Big Lie, but his is tweaked a bit. He does discuss the Anti-Christ, but perhaps he wants to avoid Armageddon and see us into the New Feudal utopia. I bet seeing the threat to a “model city” like Dubai is shaking him up some.
There is something to it: we (well, Catholics of any stripe) don’t believe in literal end times–to paraphrase Colonel Lang, we spent a long time waiting on hilltops for things to end 1000+ years ago and that never happened.
There are badically two types of modern Catholicism in US, afaict: Francisco Franco and Doris Day. The mainstream, fwiw, has gone for the latter. I’m constantly reminded that many elites are Falangist to their core, though…
I think you mean, Dorothy Day of the Catholic Workers. Wonderful people. May she be acknowledged as a saint.
Yeah. That was a weird slip up…..
No kidding — I was about to look up Doris Day on Wikipedia, maybe look for early clues in her playing opposite Rock Hudson in Pillow Talk.
Que sera sera.
The so-called Catholics in our political class do not espouse anything that I (a 64-year-old cradle Catholic) recognize as Catholicism.
. . . the long-term game is to break from the old model and go full America first (and ideally fascist). . . the more the current US military is proven incompetent, the more impetus for the change Palantir/Anduril/saner generals want (meaning end to cost-plus & exquisite white elephants). . .
Not “ideally fascist”–necessarily fascist or at least authoritarian as AIPAC and the Defense lobby control Congress and there is no easy path to removing these powerful lobbies That being said, I am doubtful there is any real appetite in DC to get rid of Congress, or within the upper reaches of the military or the deep state, remember, they all dream of private sector sinecures when they retire. At the end of the day, you have a self-serving oligarchy which prioritizes short-term profit over everything else, which is happy to pay some useful idiots to dress up in black shirts but is never going to willingly cede power to an entity the oligarchy doesn’t believe it can control.
I think the way this plays out is America gets a good, old-fashioned ass-kicking a few times and emerges as a paper tiger/world clown, and then there is a gradual shift based on the perceived need for survival. Plus, its hard to see how Israel survives long-term having kicked over so many hornets’ nests, so that would solve the AIPAC issue. But. . . this assumes things don’t go full nuclear, which is a big assumption.
It also assumes there’s no serious disorder/collapse/jackpot scenario allowing a very different system to emerge.
True, but I am considering the prospects for an inside job, not an outside job. But the current systems seems pretty cleverly rigged to coopt outsiders if they gain any influence/power.
I had a look at the guy who calls himself Professor Jiang. Originally I thought he was nuts. But maybe not, looking at what is unfolding in this war that the US started for no logical purpose it can articulate.
Israel survives the war because of the fuel of religious zealotry and they have US religious fundamentalists supporting them who put Israel’s interests above those of the US. (such people used to be shot at dawn but now they’re protected above patriotic US and western citizens). Israel expands their territory to include Lebanon and Syria, and now are talking about taking Turkiye too. Israel becomes a theocracy.
Iran survives because they are fuelled by martyrdoms and the US & Israel keep martyring their leaders. Plus they have obvious strategic and military smarts, and help from Russia and China. Iran stays a theocracy.
The US is weakened and withdraws from the Middle East because they are shown to be militarily a spent force when confronted with a worthy enemy (newest carrier taken out by a ‘laundry fire’, seriously?).
When the shooting ends Palantir, Google and other zionist adjacent companies high tail it to Israel to create their utopia, a fully surveilled world, making lots of money to boot. Israel rules the world via its technology and via its diaspora in the west (already happening).
Iran extracts rents on all ships passing through Hormuz, so becomes rich and rebuilds their country, thereby becoming prosperous and even better defended. The GCC countries fold altogether.
The US takes South America including Brazil (for the oil and minerals in abundance), because the logistics are far easier. And none of the South American countries are anywhere as strong as Iran.
So we might end up with China, Russia, Iran vs Israel, the diminished US empire (US + South America) plus the rump of the west. BRICS gone. India vacillates between the two as it has done for a while. Saudi Arabia may survive in some form but not certain.
Anyway, my two bits.
Vance seems much tougher, more clear thinking, more knowledgeable, more curious, more questioning than Trump and, unlike Trump, he converted to Catholicism which indicates that he is less likely to respond positively to the blandishments of the evangelical, Zionist and nutter hawk pressures than Trump.
As a practical politician he can best achieve electoral rewards by ignoring the evangelicals, framing the Democrats as the party of the Zionists, and stripping out the nutter and mildly nutter hawks from government, placing whoever necessary on trial for war crimes, and by making his own American University speech and running a rational campaign persuading Americans to recognise that the world is changing and it can only change for the better, economically, socially and politically, if government puts the interests of the American people first by co-operating to help other countries do the same and he is the man to do it.
Wall Street is whistling past the graveyard. Since the war started, the S&P 500 is down 2.6% and the Nasdaq 100 is down 1.2%. Yawn.
Your nick name seems to mean “long live bread! long live wine! from Catalonian. Funny!
as a Frenchman, I approve of this philosophy. Bona tarda!
Visca el pa, visca el vi, visca la mare que em va parir!
Here’s to bread, here’s to wine, here’s to the mother that gave birth to me!
Expression that could be described as a shouted proclamation that kicks off a ritualised display of boozy bravado—typically culminating in a bottoms-up and a wobbly circuit of the table to clink glasses with everyone present, toddlers included.
Handle that I adopted before I had to give up alcohol for health reasons 😔
50 or so years ago I got to ride as a passenger on a Bultaco motorcycle as an early teen into a tavern in Burgos. Good times.
My Italian friends had a racier version: aqua fresca, vino puro …
Iran isn’t going to be allowed to relent though, is it?
Imagine the US saying “OK, let’s call a halt and have a peace conference”, as soon as any group of Iranian leaders got together Israel would kill them all.
Israel is driven by pure islamophobia and the eschatological premises of Eretz Israel HashLema, and the US is just a massive military tool to be driven by hasbara for the goyim…
End-times, baby – just wait for that nuclear-tipped Jericho III to slam into Tehran/Fordow
Actually, Trump has got a way out without losing face. My bold.
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-war-security-official-israel-pakistan-kabul-afghanistan-cuba-blackout-trump-lebanon-gaza
If the administration makes sure this goes through, then they don’t “lose the war”.
Of course Israel will continue, and Iran will ensure that the Gulf US bases never operate again (although the MSM will never report that).
Israel will step up its false flag stuff, probably in sneaky ways, perhaps to bring oil tanker owning countries into the war.
Not sure how that could work without Iran agreeing.
The US can claim to not be in a war but if drones and missiles keep hitting our bases and nearby ships they will look pretty silly.
Trump is stuck in this war.
To further that speculation, I’ve been wondering if there might have been at least some semblance of a rope-a-dope plan in place between Venezuela, Iran, Russia and China. Once the US navy showed up off Venezuela, perhaps Venezuela was encouraged to allow Maduro’s capture to avoid the country being trashed, knowing they couldn’t fight back much to begin with. If the US became emboldened and continued against Iran, then Iran would fight back since they do have the capability and a lot of valuable Western targets to hit. Backed by Russia and China, they become the unmovable object. I speculated yesterday that the US seemed scared of something if they were allowing Iran-allied ships to pass through the strait without trying to commandeer them later, and another commenter speculated it was China that the US was scared of.
I’m wondering if oil piracy isn’t the Marines mission, what with helicopters and Ospreys.
I wonder if the Chinese oil fleet has odd containers on the foredecks…
Zero chance he resigns. It’s not in his DNA. He creates his own reality, so when the time comes he will announce the war won and all goals achieved. News censorship and pressure on social media companies to tweak the algorithm to reflect that reality will convince a sizable amount of the population that that is true.
Been thinking about a way that he could extricate himself and still “win”. Let there be (another?) war vote and set it up so the majority of dems vote to end funding, then enough reps vote so it passes. Trump reluctantly has to pull back and blames dems. Dems are reviled in the midterms for “forcing” him to retreat. Too crazy? Israeli interests wouldn’t let it happen?
That doesnt stop Iranian drones and missiles from hitting US assets though.
I guess Trump could just say “We were going to get rid of that old thing anyways, we are going to replace it with better stuff” everyday when someone asked him in a press conference about the latest asset that just got blown up?
He is still the best for the job of coming up with public BS every day. Remember Baghdad Bob?
A good friend of mine always buys his gas at his semi-local Costco. When he purchased gas on Sunday they were raising the prices as he pumped. He spoke to the attendant who said they now raise them twice a day. Yikes, as it’s still early.
Costco, and your local rando gas station, have no choice in the matter.
if the local distributor changes prices twice a day, they have to as well.
That’s pure greed, as the cost to the station is what they paid for the fuel already in the below-ground tank. The fuel cost for the station doesn’t change until the fuel truck arrives with product and an invoice.
Yup. I worked at a station in the 80s.the first duty of my job was to drive to the nearest stations a see what they were charging and then price accordingly. At the time, we had fuel deliveries around every 2-3 days. Pricing was never solely based on what the cost of the delivery was.
The reasoning I remember from the 1970s is that the station needs to price the gas according to replacement cost, i.e. what they are going to have to pay to replace what they sold. Otherwise they won’t have enough cash to pay for the replacement.
An “inventory profit” is an easy way to make money when available, although IIRC the margin on gasoline is relatively small most of the time.
That’s why gas stations have bodegas – big markup on salty snacks, high fructose corn syrup beverages, weenies under a sunlamp, cigarettes, lotto, etc.
Pet peeve is when I fill up gas tank and pump reports, “Clerk has receipt.” A way to get you in the door where you’re bombarded with impulse purchase options.
My understanding is that it’s not pure greed. Margins on gas are extremely low at your average gas station from what I understand, which is why you never see stand alone pumps. There’s always a convenience store attached and the margins on colored sugar water, etc., are quite a bit higher.
If the price jumps and the station owner sells what’s currently in the storage tank based on the earlier purchase price, they may not generate enough cash to pay for a refill at the higher price. So they raise prices before the tanks are refilled. They also do the reverse when prices fall to stay competitive with other stations in the area.
When I managed a small gas station the owners got a flat percentage of fuel sales, and whatever they sold in the store was their profit. I’m sure that arrangement hasn’t changed all that much.
Ok, so I have always wondered about that.
The stations aren’t getting petrol from the distributor via an underground pipeline, they get it from trucks who drive up and pump the delivery into their tanks.
How can they raise prices unless at that exact moment the truck is dispensing into the ground as you’re filling your tank?
They paid $xx for what you are buying now and they will pay $xxx for what you buy next week, after the refill by the distro. Right?
‘ unprovoked, illegal war against Iran’ you forgot to include ‘full scale’, was that deliberate as there isn’t any ground invasion yet? Or maybe only Russia does war at full scale, I’ve never heard of Germanys full scale attack on Russia otherwise known as Barbarossa for example.
No, this is only an air campaign. Calling it full-scale treats it as more of a fundamental threat to Iran than it is
I think that Jeff A was getting at something else. On the TV news station that I watch, it is not possible to mention the Ukraine war without appending the phrase ‘full scale invasion’ on Russia’s actions. You can count on it like clockwork and you hear it night after night after night. it’s like a bad joke.
I feel like I remember seeing the term “environmentally unsound” around 2022 to early 2023 but it didn’t appear to have much staying power. I guess “illegal, unprovoked, full-scale” was already long enough for the news bites but it would have been funny to see them adding more and more descriptors to it
Adjective Journalism.
Don’t forget “brutal,” as in “Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine” — NPR loves to alternate it with “full-scale.” I guess you don’t get the same pay without an adjective.
After Russia invaded in 2022 many western propagandists decided to wipe the Ukrainian civil war away. According to the new narrative there never was a civil war – Russia sent guys in who started fighting Ukraine. They will quote some Russian who says he came in and got it going (which still wouldn’t make it a Russian invasion). So post 2022 invasion the civil war became a “non full scale” Russian invasion. So then they had to call the 2022 invasion “full scale” since they were now claiming Russia had been in the country fighting for 8 years already.
Of aggression.
I was hoping you might feature Jeffrey Sacks’s peace proposal at Common Dreams. Perhaps in the finished version?
*Collective security could be achieved in five interconnected measures. First, the US and Israel would immediately end their armed aggression across the entire region and withdraw their forces. Second, Iran would stop its retaliatory strikes across the GCC and resubmit to monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency under a revised Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which President Trump recklessly abandoned in 2018. Third, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen with mutual agreement of Iran and the GCC. Fourth, the two-state solution would be immediately implemented by admitting Palestine as a full member state of the UN. Israel would be required to end its occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem and to withdraw its forces from Lebanon and Syria. Fifth, the UN recognition of the State of Palestine would form the basis for a comprehensive regional disarmament of all non-state actors, verified under international monitoring. The end result would be a return to international law and the UN Charter.*
This is important imo because it’s the type of deal Iran might accept.
One thing is missing. Israel will have to forgo its nukes if Iran has to.
I don’t mean to sound harsh but no, I am not featuring it because Sachs is selling unadulterated hopium. There will be no negotiated outcome. Both the US and Israel have demonstrated that their word means nothing.
Realist John Mearsheimer has said that Iran has, like Russia, concluded that this war will be settled on the battlefield.
And contrary to widely touted misinformation, many wars end without an agreement.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/peace-ceasefire-or-stalemate-how-wars-end-and-road-ahead-ukraine
Iran has no reason to negotiate. It is winning and the belligerents are not even negotiation-capable, let alone agreement-capable.
More generally, as someone who has worked on a lot of deals (and recall that per Trump’s fixation with “deals”, they are normally transactions and do not entail the complexities of ongoing relationships), even deals do not happen if there is no overlap in bargaining positions. It has been a source of ENORMOUS personal frustration with Ukraine and now Iran that people who should know better blather on about negotiations when there is no possibility of ones that will lead to a settlement (the one for Ukraine died when we kicked over the table in the Istanbul talks).
Your comments show the essential dilemma, which is not unique to this situation. The conventional establishment isn’t really paying a price and has no reason to leave its cozy bubble.
There is a fundamental misbalance here. For, Iran’s regime (add Cuba, Vietnam, Germany in WWII, etc.) it was about existence. For the US it is about what exactly from long range. For so many reasons Iran can keep playing this as they are, it certainly can’t get worse for them. And, they have seen the wreckage the US has left throughout the region.
So, assuming they know what they want, to paraphrase the Stones “time is on their side.”
I think Iran would accept US surrender on Iran’s terms if we reach that point.
That is not a negotiated deal. That is capitulation :-)
Exactly!
Also, Iran is negotiating just not with their enemies. They are discussing conditions for allowing passage through the straight, and advising the gulf monarchies to stop all cooperation with us. In some cases, particularly the Saudis, diplomacy may continue to have a kinetic aspect (MBS reportedly is urging Trump to fight and is still allowing overflights and base use).
If Iran prevails, I’d expect post-war negotiations to focus on regional security cooperation, including keeping the US out and Russia and China involved but somewhat removed.
Once the US is out, Israel is gaza-fied, and the gulfies’ militaries destroyed (they are useless without the US) Iran can easily build with reparations 20-30 bases in the region to keep an eye on everything.
I would imagine an Iranian / Hezbollah base in Gasa and in the West bank. Northern Israel will return to Lebanon. The Houthi’s will keep the Red Sea under resistance control.
If it wasn’t for Hormuz I might agree.
On trust I’d say that much of the agreement could be done before the straits are reopened. US could withdraw, Israel could withdraw, Israeli nukes could be put under the control of the IAEA, the UN could welcome Palestine as a full member. All this could be done in a month if necessary.
Iran could always reclose or resume hostilities if betrayed.
I’d like to hear what winning on the battlefield really looks like. Iran can’t actually defeat the US but it can keep the straits closed for the foreseeable future. The US could conceivably defeat Iran but the cost in lives would be unacceptable and it would take far too long. Also I don’t believe China and Russia would allow it to happen.
Hormuz must be opened as soon as possible if we are to believe what we read regularly here at NC.
Iran has every reason to negotiate if the results could be to its liking. They may be winning but peace would be better.
Finally, who would be against such an outcome? Only the US and Israel and they are losing. The rest of the world would be delighted.
HUH? I hate to come down on you but this is more deluded thinking.
Israel is in the region, FFS! It can’t and won’t withdraw. It LOVES terrorism, witness Stuxnet, the pager stunt, the successful conversion of peaceful protests into violent ones.
You REALLY do not get it.
Israel’s strategy is a more kinetic version of the “mowing the lawn” it has practiced with Palestinians. It intends to keep attacking Iran to weaken it. It will resume as soon as it can.
Why should Iran put itself in the position of being still subject to attack?
And Israel is NEVER giving up its nukes. Our Kevin Kirk wrote a long piece on how Israel has regarded them since its birth as a state as essential to its security: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/armageddon-now-israels-nuclear.html
This is Making Shit Up. I do not have time to debunk comments that misinform readers to this degree.
Correct. Israel would never give up its nukes. But how can there be peace while it still has them? Iran may have to develop or acquire enough nukes that allow it reach a MAD arrangement with the Israelis. But how long could a MAD arrangement be maintained with an Israel always eager to push the envelope(s) wherever it sees a possible war it might win. Even if Israel ever attained its current Greater Israel dream, what are the chances that dream wouldn’t be replaced by a still-greater-Israel dream. As long as the US and and Europe tolerate and support Israel, it’s hard to see how there will ever be peace.
I’m wondering if using a nuke in this war has the same value as it did/does in great power conflicts. Given the size of Israel, why couldn’t there be a well-advertised “dead hand” stipulation by Iran that the use of a nuke by Israel would cause the automatic launch of dozens of very lethal ballistic missiles which would cause an equivalent devastation? Using nuke(s) against a country of Iran’s size would kill many millions, but would it prevent the survivors from extracting equal vengeance on Israel?
All this armchair theorizing is aside from the idea that a country that uses a nuke will have to deal with the disgust and hatred of upwards of 90% of the world population. In such a situation, I would not want to be an Israeli citizen visiting or living in another country, (nor a national leader trying to excuse such an event).
Nor would I want to be a Jew, living no matter where in the world.
When that day comes, as surely it will, there will be no escape from a retribution richly deserved inasmuch as the organised Jewish community has offered full throated, unequivocal and enthusiastic support for the genocidal atrocities committed by the criminal enterprise that is the State of Israel.
I say this sadly, speaking as a Jew myself.
USrael also will not allow a two-state solution, nor an immediate ceding of purloined west bank and settlement lands. Deluded hopium?
The f’ugly realities of human-‘kinds’ worst attributes circling to roost.
I really appreciate all of the incredible linking and reporting here. Thank you!
Ok….It’s making me very nervous disagreeing with you so if you’ll permit one last reply I’ll shut up.
I don’t think I’m informing or misinforming anyone. I’m just giving my opinion.
Of course I’m not suggesting Israel withdraws from the area, just Syria, Lebanon and the OPT.
It seems you are saying that what Israel doesn’t want can’t happen.
Is a prolonged closure of the straits not really a worldwide economic disaster?
Is Israel not really running out of defensive and offensive weapons?
Is Israel not really getting nervous and starting to regret? See Alistair Crooke’s Conflict Forum.
Is Iran not capable of inflicting existential damage to Israel? Eg via desalination plants.
It seems to me that Israel could soon have to choose between Greater Israel and no Israel at all.
I don’t want to waste your time (your coverage is literally the best and I am very grateful) so I’m happy for others to pile on on your behalf if you don’t want to.
With all due respect, first it does not matter what Israel does, or what Israel wants. Iran will determine when this war end, not Israel or the US.
Isreal is dedicated to the destruction of Iron, both out of its desire to be the regional hegemon and paranoia. Israel will come back and attack Iran again as soon as it is able. It wants it to be either balkanized or a failed state, like Syria.
John Mearsheimer points out in fresh Judge Napolitano that Israel sees Iran as a Nazi equivalent, committed to its destruction. Mearsheimer says he regards that as nuts but that is what Israelis think. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pVG88TilV8
This pathology is long-standing. I had a very very good friend 20 years ago who had 30 cousins in Israel. She was an open one-issue voter, as in for Israel. AFter 9/11, she took to ranting regularly about Iran, even though none other than George Friedman at Stratfor was often writing about how helpful Iran had been. My stony silence on that topic led to the end of our friendship
Alexander Mercouris, from the top of his Monday broadcast reported, citing a Financial Times report (forgiven me for being too time pressed to run that down) that Israel’s leadership to a person was taking an even more hawkish position and was unhappy that Netanyahu was not being more aggressive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpjDePIselg
Mearsheimer in the same talk said he did not think Israel would nuke Iran unless it thought Iran was working on a nuclear weapon, as in for real, as opposed to for Israel’s ritual scaremongering. Chas Freeman has repeatedly said that given this war, it would be entirely expected for Iran to get a nuclear weapon.
So Iran either needs to destroy Israel or effect regime change there. You can see they worked that out long ago:
Thanks for allowing my reply and for yours to me. I know I said I’d shut up but now it seems we’re almost 😅in agreement. (Sorry about that emoji. I don’t know where it came from and I can’t seem to get rid of it. )
**Iran will determine when this war end, not Israel or the US.**
**So Iran either needs to destroy Israel or effect regime change there. **
Yes. I agree completely. The time may well come when Iran has to decide whether to eliminate Israel or allow it to survive within its borders. The time may well come when Israel sees the writing on the wall and realises that survival within its borders is better than not surviving at all. This is when a formula like Sacks’s could apply.
Finally (again) I want to thank you for four years of reading and learning at NC. I consider it my degree in geopolitics. Propornot was the beginning of my education when I adopted Consortium, Grayzone and others but not somehow NC. I curse those wasted years.
The longer Israelis spend in shelters, I wonder if public opinion starts turning towards use of nukes regardless of whether Iran has or is making any. Is a population primed to fear Iran going to differentiate between an unceasing barrage of missiles or supposed soon to be manufactured nukes? Either way, it could spell the destruction of Israel. And if popular opinion converges with elite opinion on escalation?
Seems unthinkable that there could be public support for use of nuclear weapons. But a solid majority of Israelis support the genocide in Gaza with a noticeable minority wanting stronger actions. Then there are the Zionists, etc in America doing everything they can to support the genocide.
I fear there are not enough rational actors in this war and maybe none among the people with nukes.
aye. i see no long term solution to this other than no israel…or at best, a much smaller israel allowed shovels and such(ie:kibbutzim only. let them grow food). stick un headquarters in jersusalem/al quds.
and likely, it is in iran’s…and the region and world’s…interest for the usa to be forced to give up our goddam empire. how that happens, idk…but i reckon a greater depression plus row embargoing us might do the trick.
in my study of history, beginning as a boy, its become increasingly clear that it aint ussr, north korea or whatever other baddie of the week we yell about…but us that has been the main problem preventing a better world.
almost as soon as the ink was dry on the un charter, we broke it shamelessly, after all.
and i say all this as a self described american patriot.
basta.
It’s probably a war crime but it is a lesser one than nuking another country, which is otherwise the end game of the escalation ladder for one side or another: Iran needs to destroys Israel’s water supply.
If nobody died and everybody can survive if they just move away, can Israel really justify nuking Iran in return? Because nobody might let them in and give them a drink of water.
It would be an epic refugee crisis, of millions of people. Egypt would be very wary of accepting Israelis and Palestinians, for fear of them not leaving. The Israelis might have to go and stay with their new friends, the Syrians….
Ripplebrain keeps pointing out that the Jewish Autonomous Oblast still exists in southeastern Siberia if the Mediterranean thing doesn’t work out.
I guess I’m having trouble keeping up. I had no idea before watching the linked video that Iran is still shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz. That rather important fact has never showed up in my MSM news feed.
I too have less than fond memories of having to bite my tongue at work, where Zionists were thick on the ground, when the topic of Israel came up. Thanks for all you do.
I don’t think it would take any paranoia about “they will nuke us” for Israel to use a nuclear bombs on Iran. Gaza is some evidence for that. The Palestinians are no threat to the existence of Israel and yet they starve and slaughter them. The only reason any Palestinians are alive it because that just might be a bridge too far for the world. Their treatment is so horrific that they don’t allow the Israel-sympathetic western press into Gaza. And they torture and murder Palestinian prisoners (and storm the jails to demand the release of anyone arrested for torturing Palestinian prisoners).. And in the West Bank their slow takeover includes constant harassment and murder. Israel is like the USA only in a regional sense: they only accept subservience from other countries and are unhesitatingly willing to kill in order to get it. Unlike the USA, they don’t even need to manufacture consent. And that includes no hesitation to kill civilians or destroy all their structures.
“It seems to me that Israel could soon have to choose between Greater Israel and no Israel at all.”
— Now, you’re really starting to grapple with the issues! All signs point to Greater Israel-or-bust as a policy. They don’t want a small state that needs the US, they want a BIG state that answers to NO ONE!!!
For the Iranians, they’ve pulled off a well-executed plan to grab a TEMPORARY edge against a strategically superior adversary. They HAVE to press this advantage as far as they can, because the adversary is going to come right back at them again in a year (once they’ve rebuilt their temporarily depleted arsenals). They can’t assume the military flaws the US-Israel is exhibiting will last for very long. The Iranians MUST carve out as much physical space between themselves and the murderous adversary as they can in order to grab onto some kind of long-term security.
How exactly will will USrael re-arm itself while continuing to deplete stocks in Ukraine?
“Strategically superior” assumes facts not in evidence.
Even if some entity were able to seize power in the US with the intent to rebuild and rearm for purpose rather than for profit, it would be a generational challenge to rebuild all the capabilities offshored to China.
“Strategically superior” to Iran isn’t really up for debate.
Ukraine should be done, soon. The Iranians probably know this, too.
Regarding Israel’s ambitions…Bibi (or AI Bibi) calls Israel a superpower several times in this video. Sounds like they want ‘living space’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99ZyuVb2efU
My point was that strategic capability is wasted when strategic institutions are commanded by someone who doesn’t even know what strategy is.
With the kinds of catabolic processes the Gulf closure will impose on the US distributed supply chain, compounding the deliberate, tactical dismemberment of US R&D, I could see the US losses of capability being more enduring. But that’s just me.
Why isn’t it up for debate? I may be the incarnation of Chester Nimitz, but that doesn’t make me strategically superior to someone who has a functional military. (I have some old nerf guns that may not be functional). The US is larger, richer and spends more money on boom booms than Iran. But those boom booms cost too much and we run out of them. Disarmed is not a position of strategic superiority. They have a choke point. We Just choke. Advantage: Iran. With our Roaring Giant Economy we can make more, build back better, even. Uh…stock buybacks, cost plus, lobbyists, junkets, election in November, election in November. So we don’t. Intellectual property is sacrosanct so can’t spread out production. But wait we don’t have enough factories period. I don’t think strategic superiority is at all clear. Maybe it is fogged by the smoke from the fire in the laundry room on the billion dollar love boat.
Thanks Yves.
I have sometimes regarded your rebukes to genuine questions in comments as a little harsh but you’re spot on!
Iran can’t actually defeat the US but it can keep the straits closed for the foreseeable future.
Iran can Gaza the zionist colony.
And how is keeping the Strait closed NOT a US defeat?
The US though its sanctions turned Iran into an autarky despite it not being natively as well suited to being one as Russia
It is self sufficient in food and fuel.
It has Russia as an ally
It can survive the destruction of the world economy. The US cannot.
im also seeing a lot more talk than is historically usual about petrodollar recycling, which i think i remember is a peeve of yours,lol.
i also realise, as you point out all the time, that the dollar as reserve is pretty much baked in for forseeable future…and that brics/china doesnt want the job.
but what about a bancor-like thing?
idk…just woke from nap, and havent slept for shit for weeks…and all i want for xmas is to live in a republic…even a 20 acre one…rather than an empire.
From reading things here, I’ve understood that most countries would view the rules to make a bancor-like mechanism work as an unacceptable violation of their sovereignty, making it a non-starter. Please correct me if I have misunderstood.
That sounds right, and while China is talking about trade in its currency, and might even encourage Hong Kong to take a run at London for insurance, commodities trading and hedges, it’ll never open a global casino like Wall Street, which is central to dollar durability, floating the world’s oligarchs.
Thank you, jsn.
China certainly seems to have a far better grip on its oligarchs than the US.
Yes, I think the US has no way out of this mess
Quoth our hostess: And contrary to widely touted misinformation, many wars end without an agreement.
This. Essentially both sides just get tired and stop (though you could argue that there’s an “agreement” to stop). I suppose you could say that “one of the sides gets what it wants,” which is what we’re looking at here.
Though the jury’s still out on Korea. The VFW considers me to be a “Korean War Vet” and eligible for membership despite having served there in the early ’80s and the only shots I heard in anger were ones fired during a murderous rampage at a local training range.
Are there good reasons to not kill Netanyahu and his Naz… Zionist-leadership (say top 5 layers) yet/at all? Are they running Israel into the ground just like the cocaine-clown and his Zio… Nazi-gang in Kiev are doing? Are there more competent leaders behind Netanyahu and his Naz… Zionist-gang that would be a stronger and more destructive force in the region?
It hard not to think that, ex escalation to nuclear strikes, prolongation of the war serves Iran’s interests in damaging the State of Israel. If that’s right, leaving in place BN, who presumably has personal reasons for prolonging the state of exception that is delaying his court cases, is the simplest path toward Iran’s goals.
Hard to be certain given the news embargo but there is a growing list of leadership in ISR that hasn’t appeared in public in a while. And the war continues.
Iran’s goal is the extirpation of Israeli military power and the permanent removal of US from the region. Israel cannot survive in its current zionist, racist, genocidal form without its military power and the US. So, whoever is in control of Israel, how can they surrender as it is a total, unconditional surrender? In that case, other than morale (a good reason), assassination changes nothing on the battlefield.
As to strategy – attacking Lebanon shows the current lunatic Israeli religious fanatics are NOT strategic heavyweights. Israeli strategy is perfidy and assassination and genocidal punishment of populations (all war crimes) – you do not need a Napoleon for that – just someone with no morality – followed by hiding behind the US when it doesn’t work (again and again and again).
Yes. Ignoring the moral issue, it encourages the US/Isr strategy of assassination as a policy.
You honestly believe not assassinating him will put that toothpaste back in the tube? The don’t need any encouragement.
Pretty much only US/Isr go around killing whoever they don’t like, and bragging about it.
Iran doing it too would help normalise the practise.
Given that we are witnessing the destruction of expensive U.S. weapons by Iran’s inexpensive drones and missiles in real time, are EU leaders really so naive as to still want access to American weapons?
Correct. Fifty years of gas-lighting by the defense industry has led to the deployment of exactly the wrong weapons which have all failed in the very first days of combat. The result of this incredibly expensive failure may even lead to Congress getting tough with the DI (hopium, I know) but we’ll see when the real casualty numbers are known and the blame game starts.
Not sure about “all failed in the first few days of combat” If dead Ayatollahs could speak, they would probably disagree with you.
Boy do you have this wrong.
Khamenei was handicapped, and 86 and wanted to die a martyr.
His assassination during Ramadan was like killing the Pope on Good Friday.
It not only united Iranians, but created great outrage and sympathy across the Muslim world, even among Sunnis.
So this was worse than a failure. It was a backfire.
Yes but the weapons worked. the strategy was ass.
This is a key fact but it is never talked about in US media.
We have General Betray-Us talking about how Israelis had this great intel and murdered 40 top leaders in a bunker but the reality was they killed the guy in his living room. He knew if he stayed hiding in a bunker it would provide propaganda for the US/Israel so he decided to sit at home and dare them to walk into his trap.
I think the next figurative bombs to drop on American dominance will be evidence that most of the Western world’s leadership has known for awhile that America and American weapons manufacturers have been selling expensive garbage that doesn’t do half of what they claim. But keeping the 800 lb gorilla (apologies to gorillas) with the emotional development of a spoiled toddler happy was worth wasting significant portions of their budget, Even if there was little real reason for these weapons except as shows of dominance.
The Pentagon does not plan for the wars that might be, it plans for the wars it wants (also, it generally plans for the LAST war) and does very little looking around to see a) who actual opponents might be and b) what’s currently working as strategy, tactics, and logistics for dealing with “kinetic politics with extreme prejudice.”
With a side order of always letting themselves be sold on the latest wunderwaffe, purchase of which is essential to securing after-military employ by various birds and stars.
Lots of full rice bowls to be had in the MICC for the “right people” – nobody’s going to let “actual war” get in the way of those profits. It’s not like the legislators, birds-and-stars, or contractors are going to be fighting and dying, after all.
Yes our naval defeat by the Houthis was swept under the rug. Not to worry though, our corrupt MIC is funding lots of expensive drone companies here in the US. Rumors are the Trump piglets are invested in a few.
From Breaking Points, utube, ~24+ minutes.
Missile HITS Israel As Interceptors RUN LOW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKA7AvxvoTI
Just reading the account of how two Indian and a Pakistani ship were allowed safe passage out to sea, a point occurred to me. We know how many ships are bottled up right now but I have never read anything about the actual destinations of any of those ships. Would Iran be able to set up a system so that ships heading to Global Majority nations and others such as China would be allowed free passage and nobody else? It would serve to get Iran support from all those countries and underline the point that ships from unfriendly countries would be there for the duration.
I’ve also been thinking about this.
Would it be practicable?
And would the US just go pirate-mode on the open seas?
Also not just based on destination but also origin. So Iraq is getting in. UAE very much isn’t. Others still to be seen.
One of the YouTube channels – I forget which – yesterday pointed that exact idea out. The Marines headed for the Gulf would be horrible at actually trying to seize and hold coast or Kharg Island, but they’d be perfect for pirating “shadow” tankers and cargo ships.
I’ve seen Matt Hoh (often a guest on the usual YTs) offer this theory.
they have. GPS tracks show the “approved’ ships using a specific, winding corridor that hugs the Iranian coastline.
presumably to double check ships and avoid any collateral damage for friendly ships. one circle of Twitter cites that route as ” proof” that Iran mined the strait
“Drafting gates” work as well for herding tankers as they do for cattle. Except for captains sitting on 800,000 barrels of flammable liquid you can just tell to “imagine a gate here” and they will comply, mines or no mines.
I gather Pakistan’s navy is not escorting their tankers from the Gulf of Oman to Zulfigarabad terminal because they’re afraid of Iran targeting them on their way…
I think I understand the Iranian position on passage on the straight is, if you are an Iranian ally, and don’t have US bases in your territory then you may be allowed passage. For example as few tankers of Chinese origin have passed.
It could be this may provide a mechanism for increasing traffic through the Strait. It will be difficult for countries such as Taiwan, Japan or S.Korea to jetison US bases and/or alliances however. On the other hand more demands from the usa to join impossibly foolish schemes (current scheme: joining the armada to sale through the Strait without permission! ), in an attempt to bailout failed usa policies in the Persian Gulf, may convince some that dramatic change is needed. A global depression (6 to 12 months away?) will likely convince more.
On the other hand, the usa may launch ww3 a few years earlier than planned (military buildup not yet complete and current systems designed for ww2). This may result in the collapse of the usaian empire.
Some time yesterday, the Iranian media stated that one of Iran’s conditions for ship passage through the Strait is that any resultant oil sales are settled in Yuan rather than USD.
This means that it a purely Iranian matter; China would have to be involved on the financial side of things, not just facilitating the transaction but providing Iran with banking records (“purchaser A opened a letter of credit in bank B for cargo in tanker C” or some such), including once the final sale is made to make sure no “smuggling” occurs.
I have no idea to what extent the Chinese want to take on this financial responsibility and become one of the de-facto gatekeepers on the Strait of Hormuz, but surely the Iranians would not be speaking of the concept in public if Beijing were dead set against it. So we shall see.
marinetraffic.com has, afaik, reliable data on tracking, including ship origins/destinations/flag and cargo type. of course, there’s all the signal jamming and other things way beyond my knowledge, but still very good and great UX.
see this chinese LPG ship that appears to be let through as of march 17, noon est:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:752730/zoom:10
I believe Iran would also have to be monitoring any ships they allow to pass all the way to their destination and setup ways to deal with anyone that permits a cargo vessel to be diverted to an unfriendly country (similar to what happened last year with LNG shipments being diverted to Europe while en route) after they have exited the strait:
LNG tankers change course to Europe as gas storage levels drop
Kinda short sighted isn’t it? The only punitive measure the Iranians have to take is to then close the straits completely. Then the cheater has spoiled it for everybody.
>>> displaces 600 crew from their berths. (this was not some lint catching fire)
1. this is face-value honest as the PR says: a laundry accident. ok, the Captain needs to be relieved for incompetence/negligence….unless it was a equipment malfunction
2. this is a self-inflicted equipment “fragging” that got out of control.
3. this is combat-related, the IRGC didn’t lie
I dunno what to think. Alex Jones, you were right all along, lmao
We know that US has inventories of certain kinds of consumables (artillery rounds, precision munitions and upgrade kits, etc.) that are insufficient for prolonged high-intensity warfare.
I wonder if this is pattern that extends to other types of “consumables”, such as spare parts required for maintenance.
If that’s right, prolonged continuation of high-intensity conflict could lead to lower-than-normal states of readiness across significant swathes of US military.
Supply support for US systems in the war likely running out faster than precision weapons.
Short answer spares and consumables, classes of supply items are indeed laid in for war. A separate budget than the provisioning of supplies for peace time training.
The war quantities are based upon classified assumptions as to the usage of parts during early war, usually for XX days combat and at XX days industrial mobilization* hoped to kick in.
*Concept from my time which ended about 10 years ago, deindustrialization and technology advance make industry mobilization difficult.
The global supply chain which many of the US/IS militaries spare parts depend upon is in danger of a serious melt down. 6 months or less? Rare earths already constrained of course.
I hope that supply chain includes fresh skivvies for the boys and girls on that boat.
I think the US manages to keep 3 out of 11 carriers sailing by extensive cannibalization. I have read that many military system parts were made by machinists who retired/ passed away, and there are no longer plans or SOPs or knowledge of how to fabricate – the majority of the US military hardware is very old (and irrelevant for modern warfare – except ppt presentations).
Just try and get tech support on anything 40 years old – I occasionally try with equipment – for example, a rotameter I inherited. The manufacturer was sold, and no one in the new company knew anything, had any documentation, or even knew where to find documentation. Raytheon and LM are not comprehensive one-shop fabricators; they depend on a vast network of suppliers who depend on a vaster network of machinists and small electronic shops, etc. – shops that tend not to outlast the life of the owner (great for auctions). And no one in the MICC cares because that is not the business model. In fact, replacing a dependable F16 with a dysfunctional F35 makes MUCHO money.
Show me the incentives and I will tell you the outcome.
I read the other day that the aged USS Nimitz is being kept in commission, simply so that the Navy complies with the law that there will be a minimum of 11 carriers on duty.
correct. but electric laundry dryers are idiot-proof, low maintenance. unless lowest-bidder government cotracting strikes again! lol.
and yes. the enitre “kill chain” will fall apartbefore Iran does
Laundry fire is nearly an apt metaphor for the entirity of the US government. Tire- or dumpster- would be more accurate.
Look for awards of a Navy Cross or some Silver Stars to the Ford’s crew. If that happens it is combat damage as those are exclusively combat awards. Local media (as that still exists nowadays) will nearly always run a feature on the person receiving the award because getting a Silver Star or Navy Cross usually involves an exceptional story even if details are classified, or called a laundry fire.
Perhaps the cause of the fire was a sewer gas explosion? /s
“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the sailor knew
Someone had blundered
Theirs not to make reply
Theirs not to reason why
Theirs but to do and find another berth
Into the valley of dearth
Rode the six hundred
Were they washing Bibi’s skivvies?
“Near universal refusal”. That video had some bits which were, wow! In particular the reporter talking about next Thursday EU meeting, in Brussels I believe, Council or Europe, on the matter of Iran. The reporter says that “National leaders are going to be eager, to look for levers to be pulled to at least look like they are doing something about it“. The editors of France 24HR in English are reading Aurelien’s posts hahaha!
I think i wouldn’t ever watch that kind of commentary in a Spanish TV MSM news outlet. I find France 24HR quite interesting at least on the Iran issue.
an aside: I wonder what next year’s WEF meeting at Davos will be like.
Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick…
“Oh Nettie!”
At least we know it will still be evil.
Relocated to the Alborz mountains. :-)
Yes, the dispatches from Tel Aviv have been surprising in their candor. I have been mostly mourning for Iranian people under the bombs/breathing the fumes, but the growing rage about being in and out of shelters in Tel Avi, sometimes several times a night, being told to go to work to keep the economy afloat while kids–with schools closed–are left untended. . . You wonder what the breaking point is for Israelis with Netanyahu, for both wider agitation and electoral rejection. A world that is already staring down the barrel with catastrophic climate events will be feeling the repercussions from this into the 40s, when climate events really start to snowballd. . .
Meantime, I ‘m eager for more speculation about how this rearranges the global chess board (Iran’s pushing the renmibi?) down the line–I know that Iraqi leadership is wary of too much Iranian influence, but this seems to betoken a US weakened all around this vital region where it is waging a war to achieve some utterly unachievable dominance.
I appreciate the information and analysis from both Yves (et al) and the commenters. Something I’ve been thinking about (which you all may have sorted or posted upon previously, if so my apologies) is whether the Trump administration’s regime change “gambits” (wars of aggression) in Venezuela and Iran are part of some Cold War proxy against China? Is Trump et al making a play to control oil for leverage in rare earth negotiations with China? I really have no idea and this may just be my own reckless misinformed speculation. Appreciate your insights.
That idea has been debunked since among other reasons the China hawks would not want to risk more weapons depletion in the Middle East. They have been agitating to shut down Ukraine from the virtual start of Trump’s administration to preserve firepower for China
Sorry for getting done late. New material has gone in many sections of this post, so if you arrived before the time of this comment, please refresh this page and re-skim.
The Kurds. And this development (which I read about in the Italian newspaper this morning):
Iraq is also working to resume exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey as it seeks to offset disruptions to shipments caused by the Hormuz crisis, after some vessels were attacked off the Iraqi coast during transfers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk%E2%80%93Ceyhan_Oil_Pipeline#/media/File:Kirkuk%E2%80%93Ceyhan_oil_pipeline.svg
Note the geography. It’s like a long drive through Kurdistan.
I also note that the reason for “resuming exports” is that the original pipeline has been sabotaged. The new pipeline was put in by the government of the Kurdish Region of Iraq.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/27/iraq-resumes-kurdish-oil-exports-to-turkiye-after-two-and-a-half-year-halt
So: The Iranian Kurds don’t want to be sold out. The Iraqi Kurds are playing the middleman. The Turkish and Syrian Kurds are squeezed between the Arab world and Turkiye.
At least the Kurds are making some money. Because it looks as if the status quo is stagnant, which may be all the Kurds get attain for now.
Thinking about Gulf states’ sticking with the US/Israel to date, despite Iran’s overtures and clear upper hand, I wonder whether Israel/US has kompromat on Gulf state leaders; what’s in the unreleased Epstein docs?
It’s not kompromat. As Professor Marandi is wont to say, they are family dictatorships. Arab Spring showed how vulnerable they are to overthrow. The US bases (in their mind) offer backup muscle if the lower orders got ugly.
So the Gulf states would rather risk the Iran War causing major damage and fueling popular overthrow at home rather than ally with Iran as their enforcer of their family dictatorships?
I’m not disagreeing, but it seems as delusional as market bulls right now.
Look at Zelensky…and he has a much shorter history of being a national leader and is not royal either.
“Royal butthead” doesn’t count? ;-)
fwiw: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/world/middleeast/iran-war-gulf-saudi-arabia-qatar-emirates.html
> Behind the scenes, it is the Trump administration that has been asking for talks. Two Iranian officials told Drop Site that Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff personally sent messages to officials in Tehran, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, last week exploring possibilities for resuming negotiations. Iran has not replied to Witkoff. The Iranian officials told Drop Site that Iran has also received messages from the White House via third countries.
In the popular anime Sousou no Frieren / Frieren: Beyond Journey’s End, there is a species of monsters that is able to use human speech but it is pointless for humans to talk with them; they are implacably hostile and only use speech for the purpose of deception. The only options are to flee or fight.
Hmmmm, sounds like little hats to me….
One thing that’s worth adding is that, in a certain way, the demons in Frieren (I think that’s the official translation) are not entirely unsympathetic–at least they are not “wilfully” evil, which in fact makes things worse. They are incapable of human empathy, so even when they are trying to be “nice” to humans, they do evil things, like murder and other mayhem…precisely because they are trying to be “nice.”
Quick point of clown-world procedure:
Thanks to greasy, fake AI, It is now possible to plausibly claim any public figure is dead, by releasing AI fakes of them with six fingers, or two left shoes on.
It’s a form of psy-op. The hordes have been trained to spot AI fakery, so why not weaponize that?
I have heard of some people having a fake sixth figure added to their hand so that if they are arrested, can point at any images taken of them and claim that it was AI due to a sixth finger. Sort of like giving AI the finger.
That’s pretty clever!
The larger point, I suppose, is that this dystopian technology has more negative use cases than positive ones.
Sixth Finger was a thing LONG before AI….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElVzs0lEULs&t=4s
;-)
Yes indeed… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deLiVU9DKHM
Maybe they would prefer exile and living off investments in the West to a Shia-friendly Iranian order that elevates their working class?
Here in Sonoma County regular was $5.49 per gallon at the cheap station and Diesel was $6.99.
As far as negotiating an end to this War, there’s a little problem…as Yves has repeatedly pointed out the USA is not agreement capable.
Who are the Iranians supposed to negotiate with, Twitkof?
A solemn promise from Trump has less value than used toilet paper, you can compost the used toilet paper and get something useful, a promise from Trump?
I have dealt with Middle Easterners from time to time, not all of them were honest and perhaps not all of them were Honorable Men, however all of them understood the concept of Honor and respected those who were Honorable.
Trump has no conception of Honor, or integrity, he is a hollow Man.
You have to admit that Trump bleating that nobody will volunteer for his naval suicide squad is kinda funny. Fourteen months ago he came to power and he has done nothing but mock and humiliate his so-called allies. He has demanded that they up their defence budget to 5% of GDP, no matter how much it would damage their economies, and wants them to buy American weaponry with all that money. He hits them with tariffs made up on a whim and demands that they give him hundreds of billions of dollars to be invested in the US at his own personal whim. He also mocks their contribution to NATO accusing them of hanging back and ignoring all the soldiers that died aiding the US in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. And to top it all off, he attacks Iran with Israel and probably did not tell them that he was going to do so. Now he is stuck in his own personal quagmire and can’t work out how to get out. And it is only now that he is demanding that all those allies/vassals come help bail him out when it is not possible. Idjut.
Bullshitt*er in a China Shop? You break it, you buy it!
All unattended children will be sold into slavery. (on the wall in a local used book store)
From Turkiye Today:
Iran may allow Hormuz oil shipments if traded in yuan: Report
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/iran-may-allow-hormuz-oil-shipments-if-traded-in-yuan-report-3216209
We reported on that two days ago and commented then:
I am wondering how Iran could technically assure that any ships passing through the strait would only have oil paid for in yuan.
Inspections would be time-consuming and slow down traffic, manifests can be faked, not to mention that the US or Israel would probably put commandos onboard to kill the inspectors.
Perhaps a system could be devised with special transponders that would send an encrypted message with a secret that only a few specialists within Iran and China would know. If the secret isn’t verified on the other end, the ship gets the Wile E. Coyote treatment.
Such a system seems technically very do-able, but it would be subject to the usual hacking and such. And the more people who know the secret, the more likely it gets compromised.
It would certainly be good for a chuckle, as it would send the neocons into fits of apoplectic rage.
Cash paid before loading at the export terminal?
Lordie, I did all sorts of work on letters of credit. No one would do it this way. Famous scams with people buying tankers of IIRC salad oil with only a thin layer of crude on top.
And how do you get the cash there in the first place?
I don’t think Iran is worried about slowing down traffic on the Strait, LOL!
:-)
Verification is straightforward. Have the Chinese or Russians or Omanis verify that the cargo was unloaded with the buyer. No verification, no second laissez-passer for the Straits….
In his interview with Nima, Alistair Crooke indicates that Israel has no clue about the reformulated Hezbollah – apparently, what they were doing for the last 8 months, plus rearming and adding capabilities. Hezbollah is a massive force multiplier – they are local, FPVs work and the new 100 km fiber drones will be able to hunt airplanes at Israeli airbases. Hezbollah is attriting the Israeli army (in June they were starting to use 1960s personnel carriers that modern rifles can penetrate due to attrition), which, without the IOF air force (Iranian attrition), will be unable to stand against a Hezbollah counteroffensive – it’s a military of baby killers that the evidence shows they lose when they get into it with Hamas.
There’s a terrible temptation for diplomats and those who write abut conflicts and conflict resolution to believe that all problems have a negotiated solution if only you try hard enough. But that’s often not true, and it isn’t true in this case. Irrespective of whether you think the US and Israel can be trusted or not, the fact remains that the three actors agree on virtually nothing, and if you consider the dynamics of negotiations as a kind of Venn diagram, then the three circles just don’t overlap: ie there is no potential common area for negotiations to take place in. And I’m not sure, in practice, even how much common ground there is between the US and Israel.
So the best thing for outside actors to do is nothing. This may sound heartless, but in practice outside actors can have little if any influence on any of the three actors, and could even make things worse. In particular, the Europeans should leave the US to lie in the bed it has so arrogantly made. This conflict will be settled not just on the battlefield but also in the much wider context of the world economy and political system, and together with Ukraine will completely upend the table of the post-1990 world. That is a process that has to be allowed to work itself out, accepting that it will be a long, messy, and probably violent one, whose end we can’t at the moment foresee. But trying to artificially stop a war where the three main actors have irreconcilable views and none yet thinks it has achieved its objectives is an exercise in futility.
Sounds right although some might wonder why Israel–a country of 9 million officially designated citizens in a world of billions–gets to be part of the triangle. The fact that Trump seems to see himself as an unofficial Israeli doesn’t mean the rest of his country agrees.
So it’s not just the leaders of these three countries that have to agree but arguably America’s own dysfunctional democracy that is a major driver of the crisis. In this war it seems like the Iranians see the US as the problem and the primary enemy.
The only real solution is an end the failed experiment called israel.
As Spock said, “The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few…or the one.”
But trying to artificially stop a war where the three main actors have irreconcilable views and none yet thinks it has achieved its objectives is an exercise in futility. Not just futility. Worse than that, it demonstrates the bad faith of the negotiators. In effect the negotiator is attempting to coopt one or several parties. Not a good idea in any event. Has been documented in a labour relations case: “Though the complainant alleges that the mediator called her a “hog” for refusing to settle her human rights complaint through mediation, the Court finds that in the absence of a continuing relationship of unequal power between the complainant and those acting on behalf of the PSSRB, a single incident of offensive conduct, or a single decision of an adjudicator does not constitute harassment on a prohibited ground in this case.”Slattery c. Canada (Canadian Human Rights Commission) (No. 2), 1994 CanLII 18475 (FC – Canada -1994-07-06) Slattery refused to settle. Personal knowledge: complainant did not settle and brought this treatment before the courts, only to lose. Did demonstrate bad faith on the part of mediator. Mediator was known for “harsh” words to get a settlement. Tarnished the reputation of the third party – mediator and the Public Service Relations Board. However twisting arms is not uncommon in Canadian federal collective bargaining system— time immerial.
Re Varoufakis
——————–
“You know, the mid-war period, what was fascism? It was what happens to capitalism when it can’t deal with the crisis of its own making. When the capitalist class loses control, they pull the levers and they don’t work anymore.
Like hapless pilots who are in the cockpit and suddenly the levers don’t respond to their pulling and pushing, fascism is the go-to ideology and the go-to practices which allow them to remain in power. The fascists have always been particularly useful to the ruling class every time the ruling class made a mess of it and could not contain the crisis of its own making.”
————————–
He says it’s all ultimately a class war–rich versus poor–and here’s suggesting that is right and the alternate version being peddled by the PMC and many Dems is completely wrong. It’s the billionaires who are coming for us and not all those lower class with their churches and guns. Hitler worked for the Krupps before they worked for him.
Remember those days? A bunch of long in the tooth regimes and wanna-be long in the tooth regimes taking their populations to war?
‘Stanislav Krapivnik, in a new interview with former UK diplomat Ian Proud’
This interview is very much worth listening to as Stanislav drops his customary truth bombs. At one point he talks about how artificial those Gulf States are and are only modern constructs. He mentioned being in Dubai I think that is was and being interested in history, started asking around where he could find old Dubai so that he could explore it. Turns out that old Dubai was just a port and a mud brick fort and that was it. I notice too that the title of that video has been toned down as well as it is not the same as it was a few hours ago.
I’d constider those places as artificial as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. Most were made of existing political entities, overlay some empire (Ottoman, British), and if they weren’t supercharged by fossil fuels, they’d be a type of sultanate (Oman), emirate, or now a constitutional monarchy or republic.
The part that makes it feel artificial is that the majority of the population, especially the working class, are second class. They are guest workers, indentured servants or worse. And our oligarchs/kleptocrats/kakistocrats want to emulate that with the US H-2 visa.
Interesting.
I’ll admit, it has been a while, but Indonesia, Malaysia and yes, even Singapore (a couple of decades ago), if you poke around in the very old, “sorry, no english” parts, are amongst the realist, grittiest places I have spent time in — not even remotely like the Dubai, built-in-the-dessert a few years ago, Disneyland-for-adults construct.
This morning on Dialogue Works John Helmer suggested: 1) Bibi may be dead or perhaps there has been a military coup/putsch; 2) putsch possibly takes nukes then off the table. 3) Trump has a 2 week oil window to settle things and get out; Crooke: Hebrew press is in a weird state: some voices saying it is time to settle things or rather stop the war now and at the other extreme they are filled with items inane – topics as if the war is taken out of the context. and not real.
Lots of parsing of dual track messaging (not only referring to that podcast episode). It’s a bit like what’s happened with Russia/Ukraine and negotiations over the past 4 years.
Looking at actions, especially those announced today, those appear to slow walk people into yet more war that goes on for a longer period.
Re the Larijani rumour
It could be that the reason Netanyahu is so invisible lately is that he is hiding or maybe even hanging out in Miami. The Iranians have explicitly said that he is a target and have also said they will be targeting other Israeli politicians and even Israeli pilots whose names they know.
So is that country that thinks it is droll to say “shoot and cry” really about shoot and hide? Life in the bomb shelter must be getting old.
Alastair Crooke was on a new Nima and made clear he did not know but thought it was entirely possible that Larijani was dead.
But if Larijani is unhurt or not critically injured, it might behoove Iran to remain silent or even pretend he is dead…but I don’t think culturally that they roll that way.
Crooke also said that Hezbollah has gone “dark” after the decapitation that took place with pagers, etc. I see no reason given the Israeli M.O. of killing anyone and everyone of importance that “resistance” movements will not go “dark. which is not new, but a return to past practice of guerrilla warfare and of natinal liberation movements. Tried and true is still good practice.
Larijani death confirmed by Iran says Al Jazeera.
Could it be that Iran already has nukes, just undisclosed? I read somewhere that Iran might have received nukes from North Korea. The Supreme Leader issued a fatwa against them, but that could also mean that they are simply not deployed.
Anyway, if Iran still has this 420 kg of 60% enriched uranium, it could easily enrich that to 90%, and make a crude nuclear bomb at short notice (gun type, like Hiroshima bomb is then easy to make). They have already done the hard part.
I’m saying this because I cannot see a negotiated settlement, but I can see a cease fire happening once it is recognised that Iran can totally destroy the large Israeli cities. We might end up with a MAD doctrine which effectively stops the fighting at some point.
And the US will be pushed out of the Gulf, now that it has clearly shown they will prioritise Israel’s defence and leave the Gulf monarchies exposed, despite them having paid a lot of money, which is now effectively spent on defending Israel and not them. Hosting US troops has has become a massive liability.
Another thing I’m wondering is at what point other Muslim countries will turn against the US and Israel. I know that for example the Egyptian government doesn’t want to, but “the man in the street” absolutely loathes Israel and what it is doing in Gaza and the West Bank. At what point will the population force them to choose sides? Especially if Iran appears to be winning.
It is quite something that a Muslim country stands up against US and Israel and actually wins. That should be very inspiring and perhaps enough to also bridge the Sunny – Shi’ite divide, at least temporarily. If the general population senses a “Muslim victory”, that could really change things in the larger Islamic world. US/Israel may have knocked over the first domino without realising this.
1. I don’t think the Iranians, up to this point, would have brought a foreign nuke into the country. Recall how last year Pakistan stated that they would launch their nukes at Israel in response to a nuclear attack on Iran. As long as Pakistani ballistic missiles can reach that far, and I believe they just can (around 3 thousand kilometer range), there is no need to go through the trouble of moving the thing to Iran, especially as it would still have to be under Pakistani control (i.e. with a Pakistani military contingent operating it).
To wit, the only reason (I think) that Russia moved some of its nukes physically into Belarus is to deter a ground invasion from Poland or Ukraine. Iran is not, so far as I know, under a serious threat of any ground invasion, unless Trump decides to massacre a few hundred marines out of desperation…
Now, in theory it is plausible that the Iranians could get a non-armed version to study the technology and components engineering. But that’s obviously a different issue.
Also, will they build a nuke in the future – that’s a question. The new Supreme Leader needs to weigh in on this matter at some point, e.g. supporting his father’s fatwa or some such.
2. I seriously doubt the Arab countries will “ever” stand up to the US – until and unless the US itself withdraws, and then they’ll cheerfully adopt the “we were always with you in spirit” stance viz. Iran.
They have decades of experience of coercing an unwilling populace, whether through repression or bribes. Things like the Arab Spring were basically economic protests that mushroomed (e.g. bread prices in Egypt), and look at the results – most governments didn’t even budge.
To be sure, at some theoretical point conditions in the Gulf States will become bad enough that riots and coups might start to happen. Kind of like the Era of Revolutions in Europe after World War I. But I think there are a lot of levers that will get pulled between here and there, and by the way, only one of those post-WWI revolutions was not ultimately suppressed…
3. I think we need to start considering the possibility of a stalemate – where the conflict does not end. Instead you might have:
– The US de-facto evacuating its Gulf basis, but formally giving them up, expecting to return after the hostilities have ended.
– The Strait remaining closed to non-Iran-friendly traffic – but an increasing number of tankers becoming “Iran-friendly”, e.g. with cargoes to Pakistan, China and India, or even actively reflagging themselves as Chinese. So 20-30 ships a day ultimately vs. 150 ships a day before.
– Global supply and logistics chains reconfiguring themselves – and yes, this will involve a fair bit of economic destruction – to account for a “permanent” loss of some chunk of exported oil, gas and other products.
All this assumes, of course, that a) Trump doesn’t try to do something so desperate that the Pentagon will soft-coup him; and b) Congress and the two political parties continue to sit on their collective hands, even in the face of massive summer-driving-season discontent. We’ll see.
Is it possible that Pakistan very nearly did nuke Israel? And recall the very interesting timing of Afghanistan and Pakistan suddenly engaging in hostilities in the days around and before Feb 28th, when Israel and the US, unprovoked and without reason, attacked Iran at the same time Afghanistan was attacking Pakistan. Could Pakistan have seen the two simultaneous events as plausibly linked or coordinated?
And could this be why Netanyahu, Trump, Bessent, etc., look rather pale and shaken these days? Are we going to learn long after the fact that the world only just barely dodged the big one in these initial moments?
I don’t think Pakistan publicly made the threat that it would nuke Israel (if Israel nuked Iran). I think Iran said that Pakistan had communicated that position to them. So it’s sort of hearsay that has been accepted as gospel by the alt media, but whether it would bear out if things got heavy is uncertain. And North Korea might have nukes all ready to ship to Iran, but I bet every other nuclear state will be watching for that with intent to interrupt the transfer. I still think the best hope for de-escalating this mess is to get Russia to be the guarantor of a multi-party stand-down. After another week or two, maybe. Get the Russians in, the Americans out, and Israel down but not obliterated completely. Putin mostly keeps his word and is known to have some kind of soft spot for Israel while also having an arms-length alliance with Iran (and a not wholly adversarial relationship with Turkey). America is just plain untrustworthy, breaks its word, and really should be pushed out of the region permanently. Including Lebanon if possible.
No nukes, in Iran that is.
The late Khamenei did accept that as long as you didn’t assemble the nuke you could build the casing and such. Was/Is considered a negotiating technique to put pressure on US/EU.
Rumors going around that Iran paid North Korea to build nukes for them. If true they can’t import them until the fatwa against nukes is nullified. That won’t happen before the 40 day mourning period is over. After that the magic-8 ball doesn’t give clear answers. Could be that Iran waits to nullify the fatwa until after the war simmers down, could be they don’t do it at all, could be they do it on day 41 to pressure US/Israel (IMO: not likely since that could push Israel into a pre-emptive strike).
With regards to the 60% -> 90%+ enrichment.
Yes it is relatively easy, a few weeks but. You need to have a centrifuge chain at the location where the are hiding the material or figure out a way to sneak it into the existing complexes without the US/Israel/World noticing.
More wise comment from here.
https://indi.ca/the-ramadan-war-comes-home-to-sri-lanka/
Very good, thanks.
Oil prices jump as Iran warns Strait of Hormuz ‘cannot be the same’
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/17/business/oil-prices-strait-iran-attacks-intl
Trump and the Zionists are losing the right wing nutters – https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/top-counterterrorism-official-kent-resigns-134907898.html
“Kent said on social media that Iran “posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.” “
Maybe “nutter” was too harsh. I based it on his CIA work and 11 tours as a Green Beret noted in the article, but I was not familiar with him previously. I also just finished Seth Harp’s book The Fort Bragg Cartel. which is an extremely disturbing read and has instilled a massive distrust in anything to do with US special forces.
Daniel Davis, currently live, says he met Kent and found him to be a decent sort – BREAKING: CounterTerrorism Official RESIGNS OVER IRAN WAR He calls for Tulsi to follow suit. Definitely worth a listen.
Yes. I think “nutters” is a relative term. In our current political reality, a former CIA and special forces vet who is securely embedded within the National Security apparatus and has been reportedly linked to “right-wing extremists” can be a “realist”: one who supports our usual imperial adventures abroad and “counter-terrorism” at home but has enough sense to realize how suicidal our Israel-first policies have been.
This phenomena of such “realists” rebelling from within the Deep State is discussed by others in another thread above. I think it is one of two factors that are important if we are to avoid complete disaster. The other is the continued erosion of the MAGA base from the Zionist cause – which is why Tucker Carlson has become such a thorn in the Trump/Zionist side.
I sometimes forget that critics like “the Colonels” or Larry Johnson are not “leftists” like me, though they share criticisms of our current insanity with people like Max Blumenthal. So the fact that Davis would see Kent to be a decent sort is not surprising.
Tulsi has designs on another presidential run for sure. She will make the decision that is best for her 2028 chances. She burned bridges with the dem establishment; so, is her best chance with the Trump cult or independents (largest voting block now)? That calculus will determine whether she stays or goes.
I suspect its too late for another Gabbard rebranding.
#Concur
She needed to pick the #AmericaFirst side of the MAGA Schism in order to “stay on brand”, as it were; but she miscalculated Trump’s potential for chaos. Now #MTG and #Massie will complete the forking of MAGA, and Tulsi will have nowhere to run. She was just another opportunist whose brand was a façade. All over X/Twitter, she’s being mocked for going back on her “No War With Iran” stance.
Who knows? Maybe JD will pick her as his veep.
Here is a link to his resignation letter:
Read the scathing resignation letter from Trump’s now former counterterrorism chief: ‘We cannot make this mistake again’
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-kent-resignation-latter-full-b2940346.html
Given his position he had access to all of the intelligence. I’ll have to say that I have a ton of respect for what he just did, and I don’t doubt for a NY minute that the Trump admin is going to do everything in it’s power to destroy him. You may look at where he’s been and what he’s done with dismay, but to have been thru all that and decide it was wrong and we cannot do it again is a powerful statement made at a time when it really matters.
I always figure they’re just monsters jockeying for position. Some play long odds, and sometimes they win.
We always lose.
But yeah – nice letter.
File under AAAASHADAP
After carefully reviewing all the information before him, President Trump concluded that the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran posed an imminent threat and he took action based on that conclusion.
https://x.com/DNIGabbard/status/2033989780116033948
Choosing her words very carefully there. She does pin the conclusion very clearly on Trump, and does not say anything about what the information contained (and notably, whether there were any recommendations).
This could mean anything from “Trump took our advice” to “Trump read our advice and decided to do the exact opposite”.
>This could mean anything from “Trump took our advice” to “Trump read our advice and decided to do the exact opposite”.
Very clearly the latter.
“I am professional and respect the lmits of my institutional role so will not say it outright, but…”
Yep.
Recall that Kent was Tulsi’s Chief of Staff the first months of her post as DNI.
Kent also a recipient of Thiel-funds, defeated twice in WA by the candidate purchased by AIPAC.
Appreciate your prescience, Mr Panga.
Oh yes, certainly it means the latter, but it COULD mean the former, in theory, and Trump would probably read it that way.
On the news about SK’s government having emergency meetings to prepare for the incoming crisis. I can add that next Friday the same will happen in Spain with a special government meeting to deal with the same problem. My guess is that any government retaining some organizational capacity would be doing the same. On the other hand we have Mr. Trump saying that because the US is the largest oil producer of the world (which is true) no problemo, and the US is going to run unaffected economically by the upcoming global crisis which increasingly looks like an economic tsunami in front of us. So, one can guess that the current administration (remember, after-DOGE administration) probably doesn’t feel there is any need to be prepared and it might well result that with such lack of preparations the US could result being one of the economies most affected by the war. Speculating here.
I have put a lot of time into trying to understand this, but it appears to me that there are three simultaneously occurring crises which reinforce eachother
1) The first and most obvious is the war in Iran, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the roster of supply shocks which are basically guaranteed now even if by some miracle the war ended today (it won’t). Oil, but also urea/other fertilizer precursors, LNG, sulfuric acid for copper, etc These crisis will be painfully and massively inflationary which will torpedo central banks ability to address a crisis in the economy through monetary policy.
2) I have had real difficulty in tracking down specifics, but GCC countries have big sovereign wealth funds invest heavily in US treasuries, bonds, and equities. More specifically, I hear chatter that they are major players in AI investment and purchasers of magnificent 7 shares. The GCC countries are going to get beat up pretty bad in this war, which means that spigot of investment capital will be turned off. There is a significant chance that this finally pops the AI bubble
3) Private credit looks to be in trouble. To me, it was always a way to circumvent the more stringent requirements on lending that banks have, making them the equivalent of subprime loans for real estate except for business. A decent analogy would be SPACs are to equities as private credit is to debt. Anyhow, if inflation gets worse (and I don’t see to many scenarios where it won’t) it means interest rates will increase and exacerbate this already existing crisis which would have been plenty bad on its own.
What a dumpster fire we have here. This bull market has gone on for so long I think a lot of people are in deep denial. A lot of younger people don’t even remember 2008, except from when they were in middle school. For them the number always goes up. A bad moon is rising.
For your #2, higher energy costs also kill AI. Politically unacceptable to have it drive up energy costs when households are hurting.
Yep! Not just for regular operating power, but also for backup power (via comfonomics.com). Every high grade DC (tier III and IV) typicall requires backup High Speed Diesel generators can can come online very quickly (seconds) to maintain uninterrupted power in case of grid failure.
“A lot of younger people don’t even remember 2008, except from when they were in middle school. For them the number always goes up.”
And think about what they witnessed during the early days of Covid. The global economy went into a supply chain mess and, after a limited panic, the “number went up”. Many of the rich got richer.
They haven’t had a chance to digest the differences between events and some biases my be lingering.
It is wider than private credit, the whole NBFI complex is in trouble here. Tim Morgan says his figures show two thirds of the credit extended since 2007 is by the NBFI and the other third banks. They have been funding the discretionary economy which is coming to a halt.
They offer five to seven year funds with quarterly distributions, they are cross collaterised to repo markets against 80 percent gov. bonds. A repeat of the 2019 repo emergency that Mr Trump precipitated then would roll a lot of them up and a lot of people as time goes by don’t want to be collaterised against short term T Bills.
‘GCC countries have big sovereign wealth funds invest heavily in US treasuries, bonds, and equities.’
Those GCC countries are probably going to have to pull their money out of the US to repair all the damage that they have incurred. Trump won’t be happy about seeing all that money go back home.
He’s probably shameless enough to use Kashoggi’s dismemberment and women’s lack of civil rights in GCC countries as an excuse to seize their money just out of spite.
NOT that I’d shed a tear for those repugnant autocrats.
The scaling up of climate related disasters deserves a mention a la negative effects on the FIRE sector.
Iran warns of ‘false flag attacks’ by US, Israel
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/iran-warns-false-flag-attacks-151441769.html
If history is any guide, I expect that Democrats will always manage to fall 3 votes short of being able to do something meaningful…
Kabuki withdrawal:
(If I’m reading the link correctly)
Dems (in house)? tried to pass bill to stop the war. After that failed, on Feb 28, reps drew up a bill to give trump 30 days to stop war, march 30, thinking that’s how much time he’d said he needed to finish the job. If trump wanted a way out reps could pass that, trump could say his hands are tied.
I assume israel/zionist billionaires/aipac would try to stop passage, but maybe they fail.
https://capitalandempire.com/p/aipac-democrats-iran-war-trap
Trump says NATO’s refusal to help on Iran is “very foolish mistake”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/nato-countries-dont-want-get-involved-iran-operation-trump-says-2026-03-17/
This is on the way to becoming his new “The election was rigged”….
A few points from Professor Marandi today on Dialogue Works:
* The straight is not important. Iran closed the straight because that can be reversed and normality can be restored relatively quickly.
* If Iran really wanted to destroy the global economy they would sink the tankers in the gulf and destroy the oil capabilities in the monarchies. That could be done quickly. The option remains. It may be used if an attempt is made to force the straight open.
* The fact that the US and ISR are discussing nukes shows how depraved they are. If they are attacked with nukes they will change their nuclear posture, and more importantly, every country will rush to get that capability. This is not a difficult task for anyone these days.
* The gulf monarchies are supporting the US efforts and have a long history of aiding the US against Iran. They funded Iraq’s war against Iran. They have funded ISIS and the terrorists in Syria.
* Hezbollah has activated, but Yemen has not yet. Allies in Iraq have done a few things but also have not yet activated. Iran has not yet even touched the vast majority of its missile bases or its naval forces.
‘WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE’: Trump rages after allies ignore his pleas for help in Iran
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/17/trump-iran-nato-allies-assistance-00831355
A green tie?
If it’s from today, maybe in honor of St. Patrick’s?
Yeah, he probably doesn’t want to get pinched.
St. Patrick’s Day, and the Irish prime minister is visiting.
Trump’s War on Iran Could Cost Trillions
“My kids’ kids, and probably their kids, are going to be paying for this,” said one official briefed on the U.S war on Iran.
https://theintercept.com/2026/03/17/trump-iran-war-cost/
no, we’ll all pay for this….as inflation will be used to “pay” for the war and Social Security. (SS via a CPI that (purposefully or ignorantly) won’t capture inflation 1:1)
We’re going to go full-MMT—but it won’t be called that.
Might be helpful to call it a system, not a theory.
Modern Monetary System.
The British Empire racked up a national debt of over 200% of GDP in the early 1800’s fighting the Napoleonic Wars. Might as well call the 19th C gold standard system MMT, too, if running up massive debt to pay for wars is your only definition because that still happened repeatedly back then.
China is not going to bail Trump out
https://www.ft.com/content/18106ca2-7ba1-4b10-ad71-9247c42da1df
The Financial Times
They can’t even if they wanted to. iran has far more agency than Ukraine does and look how Ukraine has thwarted US peace efforts.
The US is so arrogant, it thinks great powers can bring everyone else to heel.
Amusing, considering they can’t even bring a small settler state to heel.
BWAHAHA
Rocket and drone attacks resume on US embassy and diplomatic facility in Baghdad, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/rocket-drone-attacks-resume-us-embassy-diplomatic-facility-baghdad-sources-say-2026-03-17/
Israel urges Iranians to revolt but privately assesses they’ll be ‘slaughtered’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/17/israel-iran-cable-revolt-slaughtered/
someone geo-located the drone strikes on the embassy—reasonably looks like the compound’s powerplant was hit.
Drones have allowed the Iraqi insurgents to be more intelligent w/their targeting. Presumably purposefully going after infrastructure as a priority. Iraqi summers are unbearable (for Americans) without A/C, lol
https://x.com/Mitch_Ulrich/status/2033722397388353587/photo/1
Trump Can’t Spin His Way Out of This War
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/opinion/trump-iran-war-strategy.html
Shorter NYT: Trump is almost as bad as Iran itself. The Times can’t spin its way out of being a shill for Israel.
The Times’ long ago Iraq war booster John Burns just died. Some of us remember him predicting a joyful Iraqi welcome on the now also discredited Charlie Rose. Karma does catch up.
Has anyone else noticed that the US flag lapel pins are getting larger and larger?
Watch for ‘Mel Brooks style’ lapel pins in the near future, measuring 12 inches wide by 9 inches high.
“Patriot harder, Mister!”
I Predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis. What Is Coming May Be Worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/opinion/financial-crisis-private-credit-ai-iran-taiwan.html
Ground Invasion of Iran Could Be “Suicide Mission” for U.S.: Ex-Army Intelligence Analyst
https://www.democracynow.org/2026/3/17/harrison_mann
Oh, I cited Bookstaber regularly in the runup to the crisis….
Archive link for NYT article: https://archive.ph/nczxk
He doesn’t mention record margin debt or a drop in confidence if Iran war goes badly. A witches brew.
Trump Says He’s “Not Afraid” of Iran War Ending Up Like Vietnam
Donald Trump continues to be unbothered about potentially dragging the U.S. into a new forever war.
https://newrepublic.com/post/207863/donald-trump-not-afraid-iran-vietnam-war
Iran Ups Attacks on Oil-Rich Saudi Arabia as War Rages On
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-17/iran-escalates-attacks-on-oil-rich-saudi-arabia-as-war-rages-on
Translation: He’s very afraid.
Iran targets UAE energy infrastructure as gas field set ablaze, tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/iran-war-uae-energy-gas-field-oil-fujairah-strait-of-hormuz.html
Commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij force killed, Iranian state media says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/commander-irans-paramilitary-basij-force-killed-iranian-state-media-says-2026-03-17/
Iran has confirmed the death of Larijani as well.
While the Israelis do have a tendency towards deceit, in general when they claim that they have assassinated someone it seems they can be taken at their word.
Trita Parsi, who has an interesting interview on Judge Nap, says that by killing Larijani the Israelis make it harder for Trump to find an exit ramp since the deceased was somewhat moderate.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ali-larijani-iran/
Parsi thinks that a long war favors Israel by weakening Iran but he also tells the Judge that the entire Israeli hostility to Iran–which didn’t exist in the 1980s–stems from fear of losing their relevance with the demise of the Soviets. New boogie man needed to keep the US taxpayer subsidies flowing.
Seems to me this view ignores the real danger which is that US voters will turn against Israel altogether and US Jews will as well. Israel’s secret weapon was always concealment rather than chutzpah. Getting the US too involved in their dubious plans risks a huge backlash and Israel without the USA may very well wither as the Iranians want.
According to Pew Research, 60% of USians already had an unfavorable view of the Israeli government last October.
I wonder how those polls look right now, with Operation Epstein Fury going pear shaped in real time?
As War With Iran Hurts Oil Prices, U.S. Turns to Iranian Boats for Help
Iranian-linked ships carrying Russian oil were among those that received temporary exemptions from sanctions, a sign of how dire the energy crisis is becoming.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/business/iran-war-boats-russian-oil.html
Iran media outlet warns Milei has crossed ‘red line’ over hostile remarks
Tehran-linked English-language outlet, widely seen as reflecting regime thinking, accuses Argentina’s President of aligning with US and Israel.
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/iran-media-outlet-warns-milei-has-crossed-red-line-over-hostile-remarks.phtml
With their economies on the line, Gulf states press US to neutralize Iran for good
After initially opposing the US-Israeli war, Washington’s allies now realize that stopping too soon could allow Tehran to keep holding the region to ransom
https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-their-economies-on-the-line-gulf-states-press-us-to-neutralize-iran-for-good/
Trump says the world should be thankful that he ‘stopped’ an Iranian ‘nuclear holocaust’ twice
https://www.the-independent.com/tv/news/trump-iran-nuclear-strikes-micheal-martin-video-b2940426.html
> Trump says the world should be thankful that he ‘stopped’ an Iranian ‘nuclear holocaust’ twice
What will he do when Iran finally decides that it needs a nuclear deterrent capability? And justifies this by reference to the events of 2025 and 2026?
Trump lies are more outrageous with each passing day. The only other person in the world which might trust Trump must be Milei who should be sending warships to the strait of Hormuz.
If he does they should all be christened The Belgrano
I’d be thankful to read an unredacted copy of the epstein files and see just what the hell trump’s war is all about. And oh, Bye, Bye, bibi, bibi, Bye, Bye.
And thanks, Ann, for all the updates. Very much appreciated.
You’re very welcome, erstwhile.
I wonder if Miss South Carolina is mentioned.
He’s the one girl in town I’d marry.
The head of counter terrorism for Trump resigned today, in a letter that said the war was started despite Iran not being an imminent threat to the US, because Bibi misled him. His letter is public. Prior to this he was a Ranger for 11 years, mostly in Iraq, and then joined the CIA. His wife was killed by an IED in 2012. He was firmly MAGA.
Trump said he’s glad he’s gone. There is a bit of a firestorm on X as certain influencers attempt to smear him, accusing him of the usual. One retired general predicted a lot of military resignations will follow as many are fed up with unnecessary wars. Tulsi Gabbard posted in what appears to be support of Trump and many are calling her out for betrayal, posting her prior statements against war in Iran.
I expect people like Larry Johnson will have a lot to add on this.
Daniel Davis had a video about that this morning which I thought was pretty good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tut6dmaiojs
The only good thing about Tulsi Gabbard being in place is that it prevents Trump from replacing her with someone far worse – such as Laura Loomer.
It might be true that the US has the greatest (i.e. largest) military in the world. Unfortunately it’s the wrong one for war with Iran, a large country that has been essentially on a war footing since 1953 (the American-backed installation of the Shah), the revolution of 1979, the war with Iraq in the ’80s, and the perennial existential threat of Israel. Its people and government have literally been fighting for their country for seventy years. They are battle-hardened and determined to resist—to the death if necessary—foreign interference.
This resistance is something the US military seems to have underestimated or not even thought of. Probably because it hasn’t fought a REAL war since Vietnam. Fifty years. Consequently it has fallen into the lazy habit of conducting “smash-and-dash” operations on small defenceless countries, often with CIA connivance. I can’t name them all from memory but: Libya? Somalia? Nicaragua? Grenada? Panama? Venezuela?
Now it’s facing a genuine opponent and its cracks are showing. In its smugness, the brass seems to have done no planning whatsoever. Because Iran was going to be a cakewalk, just like all those other sh*thole countries.
Oops. Big mistake. The Iranians are resolute and will fight to the death for nothing more than their country. American sailors on the USS Gerald Ford, meanwhile, fight only for a paycheque and just want to go home after their unexpected ten-month deployment, made more trying by mal-functioning toilets. As they say, war is hell.
Got to go. I think I’ve got a laundry fire. ;)
Anecdotal reports are that they are ringing around the reservists to try to get them to sign back up, especially are they interested in artillery types. Some sort of limited ground force is forming. I would say they intend to line the Saudi side of the straight and interdict the Iranian and Iranian approved sailings with Himar fire, Probably need the ones from Ukraine and Taiwan back
The size of the supplementary budget he asks for should tell us something, Mr Vance will be tasked in his new position with cutting off pensions and benefits from those who openly oppose the war. Could easily degenerate into something like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
Russians are already moving a lot more than they have been and it will only accelerate if drones are diverted from Ukraine, that is their main weapon now.
Paraphrasing Ho Chi Minh, I can scarcely believe the Saudis could be that stupid.
They were already playing with fire for dissembling about forbidding the US from using their airspace while goading Trump behind closed doors. Now this. What’s to stop Iran from destroying Ras Tanura and their pipeline to Yanbu if they allow a US expeditionary force on their soil?
Does MBS think he can pull the wool over the Iranians’ eyes when the whole world knows Saudi Arabia is betting on the USraeli horse to deal with their chief adversary? He’ll be lucky to end up in a luxury exile somewhere if he keeps at this.
They are allowing refueling over Saudi, while claiming not to be involved. Seems somewhat ambivalent, so who knows what MBS thinks?
Do you seriously think the Saudis could stop that? Trump bragged that he could use the Spanish airbase over their objections. The Spanish claim is bogus; Spain could cut off water and/or electricity to that base. But are the Saudis really going to send up their fighter jets to make the tankers go somewhere else?
> Anecdotal reports are that they are ringing around the reservists to try to get them to sign back up …
Actually, ‘they’ have two rather stronger options, both of which were employed during the height of the Iraq hostilities. (1) ‘Stop-loss’, by which active duty status can be involuntarily extended beyond a servicemember’s contracted release date if they are somehow deemed essential to the war effort. (2) Recalling the IRR, the ‘individual ready reserve’; by law, all (able-bodied) veterans are subject to recall until eight years from the date of their initial enlistment, whether they are members of an organised reserve unit or not.
I really don’t see how US could pull off any sort of ground invasion of Iran outside of maybe some small unit special forces stuff. Any large buildup of troops and equipment is going to attract Iranian drones and missiles.
Sanger in the NYT, which has been pushing for an op to get “Iran’s nuclear material” (McGuffin) with detailed agitprop reporting for the past weeks. What is wrong with these people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear-fuel.html
Re: USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
USS Gerald R. Ford Headed to Souda Bay for Repairs After Fire
https://news.usni.org/2026/03/17/uss-gerald-r-ford-headed-to-souda-bay-for-repairs-after-fire
Also:
It’s starting to sound like the incident was more than just underpants on fire in the aft laundry.
The fire should not have burned for 30 hours. Something is wrong with its fire suppression systems, fire-fighting systems (and/or design). Or maybe no one tried hard to fight the fire (moral).
Hassett says consumer pain over Iran war ‘the last of our concerns right now’
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5787473-kevin-hassett-iran-war-consumer-pain/
I expect that will get a LOT of replay by Democrats.
“I was unable to find underlying document viaa short search”
The underlying document can be found by
• going to this page (it’s actually the very first link labeled UKMTO JMIC Advisory in the video description)
• clicking the ▶ under 2026 16 Reports
• clicking March (17)
• looking for Update 016 – JMIC Advisory Note 16_MAR_2026_Final (it’s the second one listed) and viewing or downloading it.
(If I try to link to the PDF directly, I get an error message, hence the steps.)
The chart appears on the third page of the PDF.
The Western media blackout on Israel and US force damage continues with almost prefect discipline. However the coverage ban is being managed, it will someday be a case study of effectiveness.
The big US tracking radars are out, but that was last week. We know about the KC-135 tankers on the ground being hit, but they can’t be the only things being hammered, because multiple Iranian strikes have been reported, though without detail. Some observers have said US bases are being abandoned, but no source for that has been provided. There must be operational consequences, but those are hard to guess — are the B-1 bombers based in the UK taking over for the bases in the Gulf countries and Jordan?
The condition and location of the Abraham Lincoln is not clear. We have the report here that it is now returning to the US, but I have not found confirmation. Another report had it off Salalah Oman, not too far offshore, where it’s aircraft could launch attacks on Iran with the help of mid-air refueling over Saudi. The Gerald Ford might be taking up some slack as well.
The US is taking suspiciously few casualties.
In Israel we have a better explanation — reporters go to prison if they report. Lots of missiles coming down, but only a few tight shots of blast sites. As has been noted, we have better war reporting from the putative Iranian dictatorship than from celebrated democratic Israel.
I remember John Mearsheimer used historical artillery casualty rates to infer Russian and Ukrainian losses from (I think) the number of guns on each side. I wonder if we can hit on a method to do that for this war.
So Iran in retaliaion launched 100 missiles (1-2 tons at Israel – lets call it 1.5 average, or 150 tons or 30,000 pounds of explosives. A 500-pound bomb has about 300 pounds of payload (keeping numbers easy) – so imagine 100 500-pound bombs in one. day – not a few in Gaza daily.
Fortunately, only two elderly, a car and a few cute kittens were injured, but the kittens are doing better.
I have not attempted to correct for the non-linearity of damage with ordinance size, but it is very significant. A 2000 pound destroys and kills (non-hardened structures) to 1 km, if I remember Ted Postol’s talk correctly.
I seem to recall that a lot of highly educated Israeli’s emigrated after the “12 Day War”, assuming that Israel still exists when things calm down I wonder how many Israeli’s will want to head for greener and safer pastures.
It will be interesting to see who the State of Israel does not allow to leave and what the economic and civil consequences of a policy that essentially makes people who thought they were Citizens prisoners will be.
In a tangential note, I can imagine reasons why Iran hasn’t targeted desalination plants or Dimona. But I’m really curious whether they’ve targeted the infrastructure connected to Israel’s high-tech economy. I seem to recall they hit the Weizmann Institute during the 12-Day War, not sure if that was confirmed or how serious the damage was.
But what about the Technion, the Tel Aviv University and the startup and research park connected to it, Ben Gurion? I can scarcely believe they’re heavily protected (especially now that Israel is said to be critically low in interceptors) and it would be a mighty incentive for the double-passport elite professionals to leave for good.
Or maybe they have, but news about it have been effectively suppressed?
I’m far from expert, but I recently read somewhere that Shia war rules forbid well poisoning. Destroying desalinization plant will have the same effect.
Unfortunately I cannot find the link.
Asian Guy reported yesterday significant damage to Ben Gurion and destruction of 79, mostly commercial but also some military, airplanes. The MSM reports Ben Gurion was hit (but everything is sunshine and kittens). Given the media control, who knows?
I assess Asian guy as largely reliable at a general level, partially reliable on the implications moderate reliability on the details, moderate reliability on the implications. However, Asian Guy seems to have sources – perhaps Chinese or Russian intel? Truth is in their interest but not in the US interest. Who knows?
[Reuters] US encourages Syrian action against Hezbollah, Damascus is hesitant, sources say
The United States has encouraged Syria to consider sending forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah, but Damascus is reluctant to embark on such a mission for fear of being sucked into the war in the Middle East and inflaming sectarian tensions, five people briefed on the matter said.
LOL!!!
New Trump Screed:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116245182325726375
The United States has been informed by most of our NATO “Allies” that they don’t want to get involved with our Military Operation against the Terrorist Regime of Iran, in the Middle East, this, despite the fact that almost every Country strongly agreed with what we are doing, and that Iran cannot, in any way, shape, or form, be allowed to have a Nuclear Weapon. I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need. Fortunately, we have decimated Iran’s Military — Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti-Aircraft and Radar is gone and perhaps, most importantly, their Leaders, at virtually every level, are gone, never to threaten us, our Middle Eastern Allies, or the World, again! Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
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“I never liked her anyway”
Trump says Hormuz Strait help ‘on the way’ as allies reject military action (Al Jazeera)
United States President Trump has said “numerous countries” have told him “they’re on their way” following his appeal for an international naval coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israel war on Iran.
Trump made the statement on Monday after calling on a handful of countries to join the coalition. However, he did not identify any of the countries in question
When subsequently asked which countries had pledged to join, Trump responded “I’d rather not say yet”
“They’ve already started to –it takes a little while to get there,” Trump said. “In some cases, you have to travel an ocean. So doesn’t go that fast, but it’ll go fast”
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“You wouldn’t know her; she goes to a different school.”
The Little River Band agrees with Trump-
https://genius.com/Little-river-band-help-is-on-its-way-lyrics
I actually think the song of the same name (but not a cover) by Rise Against is a good match for showing the reality of what is happening…
https://genius.com/Rise-against-help-is-on-the-way-lyrics
The FAKE NEWS MEDIA has been reporting that I have a huge Bowl of MASH Potato on my Head, BUT this is more LIES from Radical Leftists who HATE America! IN FACT, many people are saying I have the Least Amount of mash potato on ANY head in history. Unlike Gavin NEWSCUM who Everybody knows is Mr Potato. Also, JOE KENT IS Iranian AI!!! Remember, I AM MAGA, THE LEAST POTATOEY MOVEMENT EVER and we will continue to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. Thank you for your attention, Donald J Trump
[This one is satire and not real]
Pro tip: he’s a liar.
Welp, that kind of settles it.
No need for any putative allies to join Trump’s “naval suicide squad” as the Rev Kev aptly described it.
In Japan, at least, this statement has been duly noted not only by many on X, but even NHK has highlighted it. In effect, this will put some pressure on PM Takaichi to refuse any requests by Trump made in private, as the public has registered his statement that no help is actually needed.
Just a tantrum throwing little brat.
Pretty obvious his emotional growth flatlined at about 7 years old.
Which, of course, explains his popularity among so many in the U.S.A.
Judge Nap w: Ambassador Chad Freeman:
Will China dump Trump?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uwz0eR4THnc&pp=0gcJCZoBo7VqN5tD
the ideal endgame, imho :-
Israel to be beaten into submission & subjected to a revised Morgenthau Plan
.No Armed Forces, PERIOD
.ELECTRICITY : enough for Residential needs & Agriculture
.INDUSTRY : No Heavy Industry, let them repair their tractors & farm equipment & desal. plant, No More
.WATER : Enough for Residential, and for . . .
.AGRICULTURE : let them grow oranges, grapefruit & Lemons for the EU : make of Israel one vast Latifundia, No More
.HIGHER EDUCATION : Agricultural College & Mechanic’s School & Community Medicine School, No More
Israel needs to be Broken, metaphorically speaking : whatever loathsome ideology they may harbour in the dark recesses of their Collective Unconscious, they can’t threaten neighbours while legless & confined to a wheelchair, tethered to a colostomy bag and a dialysis machine, metaphorically speaking.
I’m feeling angry & bitter today for some reason.
agreed.
it would also be nice if lobbying could be reigned in, ‘Citizens United’ undone, tho at this point that would involve a revolution of the entire political system. it would be great if it were as simple as to vote against anyone AIPAC funded, except that the overwhelming majority of candidates allowed through as alternatives are Thiel-funded or born of similar diabolisms.
i’d like ‘israel’ to be placed back in the spacious Jewish Autonomous Oblast in Siberia (it ain’t bad) and AI as a profit-driven obsessive objective for humanity to be similarly contained and restrained. to try to fit these genies back in their bottles would likely devastate the ‘progressive global economy’, which is probably what has been needed for quite some time.
i want to read some edward estlin, note the change of seasons by migration of birds, and listen to families laugh as they go about their daily labors. such few places do still exist, thank god. we’ve ruined most of them, but not all.
At the moment, Brent futures remain at 103.16, i.e., not appreciably moving.
Given all the well-documented downstream effects of Iran taking control of Hormuz (as reported in detail here at NC and elsewhere), I’m a bit baffled by this market complacency.
I can only conclude it is some mix of denial on the part of traders and success of Trump’s messaging. Iran’s own announcement that the strait is open may be getting spun by the media to minimize the conditions now imposed on ships seeking transit.
Brent futures. Does that mean paper sales of oil or real sales of oil? I understand that sale of real oil is at least $140 a barrel-
https://kdwalmsley.substack.com/p/140-and-going-higher-thats-the-real
Paper prices. Correct. Monthly contract.
And thanks for the link to that article, Rev, the analysis is pretty good. Executive summary:
P.S. Polymarket not asleep on this:
https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-march
the world has plenty of “generic” oil, especially with the reserves releases, then add demand destruction. the problem is the alignment of the varieties of oil versus the refineries’ bespoke needs.
which is one reason spot oil for Oman delivery is $$$$ while Texas oil is relativly calm. No conspiracy of Bessent pushing sell-buttons needed.
People are listening to dolts on Twitter who don’t understand the sometimes counter-intuitive world of petroleum chemistry,
there is a big potential problem looming, but the can has been kicked for 45 days.
Big if true
https://x.com/alon_mizrahi/status/2034051574365098140?s=46
This is very big and somewhat auspicious (for anyone who wants the end of the Zionist entity) if true, indeed. But there’s always the Samson Option to fear, I suppose.
Now I’m wondering how sturdy railways are. I’m honest here, I don’t know. If the actual rail tracks are preserved, can they just remove the rubble and get the trains moving? Do they need something like a physical crater completely cutting the lines for the logistics to be disrupted? I’m thinking in terms of moving troops, not passenger trains.
Video has emerged on X (link below) and Telegram channels.
Looks like the damage to Tel Aviv Savidor Station was not to the tracks, and this X post reports that service has resumed. Not an expert here, but from the beginning of this clip it looks like the overhead HV lines for one track are now just a tangled mess of cable hanging down.
https://x.com/BoGossPrebackup/status/2034175005685157973
There are several tracks so that even if one were out of service per above, the others could still be used for at least partial service. Overall, this doesn’t appear to have been a direct hit from a missile.
A good label for much of today’s arguments- on practically any topic. Thanks for pointing it out.
Sri Lanka declared Wednesdays are a holiday to conserve fuel.
Hindustan Times
Just watched this from Lavrov. Not sure who he was answering or where he was but he is always worth listening to.
A Foreign Minister of the old school, as is Araghchi. Compare both of these two to Rubio!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZuofolnRbw&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D
Some good details on tanker attacks and others.
It seems that US/Israel have attacked Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant:
https://apnews.com/article/iran-bushehr-nuclear-power-plant-war-us-israel-38ad4e7ae4c934a499cae9c0b16f8fd2
Telegram reporting some additional deets:
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/197921
Open season on the Negev Nuclear Complex, then?