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Iran War: Contested Reports About US Blockade Failure in First 24 Hours as Saudi Arabia Protests and Experts Warn of Difficulty and High Risk; Markets Still Buying Trump Howlers About Iran Begging for Deal Despite Intelligence-Insulting Lie About His Jesus Tweet

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[This Iran war update launched before complete because too much information. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]

It appears that Donald Trump’s much-ballyhooed blockade of ships from Iran’s ports is already going pear shaped. Keep in mind that this comes despite the clarification that the blockade was to apply only to vessels departing from Iran ports, as opposed also to ones departing other ports but who complied with Iran passage procedures and thus may have paid tolls to Iran.

In addition, as we will soon discuss, China swiftly issued broad new rules opposing interference with commercial operations and private property outside China. The write-up in Global Times, China rolls out ‘defensive’ new rules against unlawful extraterritorial jurisdiction; move expands toolbox amid changing intl situations: expert, read as more of a statement of principles than a plan. But it seemed intended to be comprehensive and allow China to take official action, such as naval escorts of Chinese cargoes exiting Iran ports. So China has muscular options it might employ and reportedly also has naval assets in the Indian Ocean.

However, there are already bogus claims about aggressive Chinese responses circulating (see full debunking here):

It makes sense that China would not yet have decided on what concrete measures, if any, to take. But the Saudis are already throwing their weight against it. The most prominent headline on the Wall Street Journal landing page as of 7:00 AM EDT:

From the article:

Saudi Arabia is pressing the U.S. to drop its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and return to the negotiating table, fearing President Trump’s move to close it off could lead Iran to escalate and disrupt other important shipping routes, Arab officials said.

The blockade is aimed at raising the pressure on Iran’s already crippled economy. But the officials said Saudi Arabia has warned Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandeb—a Red Sea chokepoint crucial for the kingdom’s remaining oil exports.

As to the physical state of play: Some reports out of Indian media are re-reporting Iran media sources that cite CNN (Hindustan Times and India News UP/UK), when I can find nothing of the kind on CNN. However, both Aljazeera and multiple Twitterati that follow services that use maritime transponder data report successful transits by Iranian ships after the blockade took effect:

But later:

And note, as we will see soon via commentary from formal Navy officer Malcolm Nance, who operated blockades (the US of Iraqi vessels) that even “stoppage” does not mean success, in terms of the apparent US aim of heisting cargoes and vessels as it did with Venezuela. And Iran has the option of acting that it has (apparently not yet) exercised.

Note that despite both Aljazeera and Bloomberg reporting that Richard Parry exited the Strait, it has apparently not yet reached the point either in Omani waters or the Arabian Sea where the US plans to lay in wait.

However, there are already reports that it is being allowed to pass:

But that may be because the US deems that it is outside the blockade:

So at this point a serious fog of information is afoot. But it is also clear that Iran and Chinese-operated or contracted vessels intend to challenge the blockade, even before any party ex Iran could have measures in place to defend these ship movements. Thus even if the US can claim its blockade is working as intended, it has not been seriously tested. But the US has been messaging confidently that it can beat those bad Iranians, per an explainer at the Wall Street Journal (no archived version yet):

Well it is nice that the US feels it is so capable, even though Trump has repeatedly whinged about the failure of allies to help clean up an unimaginably bad mess that he created.

Confirmed by Channel News Asia NATO allies refuse to join Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade:

NATO allies said on Monday (Apr 13) they would not get involved in United States President Donald Trump’s plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, proposing instead to intervene only once fighting ends, in a move likely to anger Trump and increase strains in the alliance.

Trump said the US military would work with other countries to block all maritime traffic in the waterway, after weekend talks failed to reach an agreement to end the six-week conflict with Iran…

But NATO allies, including Britain and France, said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, saying instead they were working on an initiative to open the waterway, where a fifth of global oil supplies normally passes.

Let’s look at two views of how well this is likely to work in practice. The first view is from Sal Mercogliano, who is a commercial shipping expert, and not a military man.

Mercogliano describes, consistent with the Wall Street Journal recap, that the interdiction is set to take place to the east of the Strait of Hormuz, in either Oman waters or the Arabian sea.1 Mercogliano seems extremely confident that this operation can succeed, although he does warn of risk of conflict if other nations decide to protect their cargoes. He seems completely unaware of Iranian options, such as missiles, small boats (which the Millennium 2002 war games showed even in very old tech form were very effective), unmanned surface vessels, underwater drones, and even midget-subs. On India Today, Douglas Macgregor warned that destroyers are pretty easy to destroy:

Hercogliano posits that captured ships could be escorted into a nearby port. He also repeats the fabrication that this measure is to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, when Professor Marandi, who was in Islamabad, has been all over YouTube explaining that it was the US that suddenly halted the talks and decamped.2 The US broke the talks, not Iran

Now from Malcolm Nance, who has hands-on experience in running blockages. In case your browser does not let you play the presentation locally, the headline at Trump Report is Trump’s Iran blockade: ‘Which moron came up with this idea?’:

Key observations from Nance:

Now Trump is talking specifically aboutIranian ports. He’s talking about thosetwo. So oil cannot be rerouted internally and vessels go in there and get it. But the three countries that are taking up all of the oil shipments that are coming out of Iran are in this order, China, India and Pakistan. India is desperate for oil. I mean they are desperate not just for the oil but because of the chemical byproducts in the refining process. Makes petrol, makes benzene, makes butane, makes you know other chemicals. You can even extract urea you know and and hydrogen. This is critical for the function of these countries. You’re talking in India’s case a billion people that are going to be without the same energy supply that they had just 8 weeks ago. So if any strife, hardship famine, you know, political turmoil comes out of this, it’s on Donald Trump, right?

But on the other hand, it’s doubly on Trump if he stops these vessels, right?

Later:

Well, there are three things that can happen here. Okay. Uh none of which is good geopolitically for Donald Trump. The first thing is that we will we can just warn them on channel 16 right the international bridge-to-bridge channel that you know in standard verbology this is US Navy warship we have imposed a blockade you are coming from a blockaded port uh reverse your course or take this course uh and follow our vessel or our boat right. Well, what usually happens is sanction breakers and you know blockade runners just ignore you. They just continue in a straight line and they will continue on.

Then you have to have one of two options, right? Well, three options technically uh you know of of escalating. The first one is you just log their name down and you remind them that they’re sanction breakers and you leave it to the lawyers.

The second one is we could do what’s called VBSS, visit board search and seizure. There are specific Coast Guard teams that are very well trained in these … But in the the second component is if we land on that ship, they may not choose to let us on the bridge. They could chain themselves in. Chinese ships have done this. Other ships have done this. They could lock us out of the engineering room, right? And you cannot steer the vessel. The vessel will not comply with you. And at that point, you’ll have to determine whether you go over the side or get back on your helicopter.

The worst and the third option is is that we fire a warning shot at these vessels. They don’t heed the warning shot and some hothead idiot in the White House like Steven Miller or Pete Hegsth wants to sink one of these vessels or damage one of these vessels which are not the property of Iran. Okay? They’re the property of another nation or whichever flag they’re flying under and could damage or destroy one of them to make a point and this could be a disaster ecologically and geopolitically….

Blockading is an act of war.But the question is who are we doing the act of war against? The real story you want to ask here. Forget Iran….You seize you seize a Chinese vessel or you board it and the Chinese master on that ship has orders to chain the door shut… When we used to go after Iraqi blockade runners, they would chain the doors. In some instances, they’d put all the food in there and they’d weld them shut for a short period of time to stop the US VBSS teams from taking over…

Now, a Chinese master may get orders, do not comply under any circumstance unless you are captured and forced. And that right there I is where we could have trouble.The Chinese have vessels in the Indian Ocean that are taking part in operations of counter piracy operations off of Somalia….and do what the Pakistanis have beendoing for the last two months. Escort
00:15:19 them out of Iranian waters.

What are you going to do when the Pakistani frigate and that support ship go up to the Iranian waters at Chabahar and escort their Pakistani oil out? We’re going to have ,we just were negotiating in Islamabad. You’re going to shoot at them? You’re going to fire rounds across their bow?. What if they put a VBSS team on their ship for security? This could go out of control.

Namce is asked to react to CENTCOM directives, per Reuters: “The blockade will not impede neutral transit passage through the Straight of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations.”

But if you use the wording of Central Command, they did not originate through an Iranian port. Therefore, Iran can collect the $2 million toll, still maintain the multipass lane, right? You know, collecting its its money and vessels can transit out of there. If that happens, let’s say there’s a run, okay, of ships that are not originating from Iranian ports, their the their insurance companies say, “Yeah, this is almost a guarantee by the United States that you can go out. All you got to dois go through the Iranian toll booth.” Iran’s not going to have a problem with this. IRAN’S GOING TO BE MAKING BANK. I MEAN, THERE”S GOING TO BE, you know, a conga line of ATM withdrawals.

Some kinetic war updates:

From Hindustan Times:

It focuses on how Israel is targeting humanitarian workers in Lebanon, but weirdly does not acknowledge that these negotiations are not with Hezbollah but the anti-Hezbollah Lebanon government.

On other aspects of the wrangling, if you see any of Professor Marandi’s fresh talks (see footnote 2 for an example), he stresses that the Iranian side had negotiating authority but Vance appeared not to, in that he regularly had to call home for guidance.

We need to clear this up. It means the Iranian team had clearly set parameters and apparently had well anticipated what the US might do, so there was no need to seek guidance. The Vance scrambling may just as well have reflected lack of any serious US preparation. It may also mean the intent was not to negotiate at all (consistent with Vance declaring at the end that Iran had refused to accept US demand) but to play negotiate to try to determine Iranian eagerness or desperation.

Alon Mizrahi confirms our beliefs in his latest talk and goes further:

But just remember that the most lethal weapon the U.S. has is the lie. They always lie. They always lie. And this is the big lie now. Now, as expected, the negotiations in Islamabad didn’t bring about the end of this war. Because they couldn’t have. And they weren’t supposed to. The US and Israel are just killing time….

Now, why did they stop the war now? …

This is very easy to get. Israel is running out of interceptors. They need to renew their supplies. The U.S. is running out of cruise missiles and sophisticated munitions for its airplanes. That’s reason number two. But there’s three and four at least, which are new and they may change the picture.

They create a different picture of this war, potentially a lot bigger and more devastating. Because number three is Pakistan is moving forces into Saudi Arabia. A large number of forces. This is not symbolic. tens of thousands of soldiers. Because Pakistan signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia, mutual defense, yada yada, basically Saudi Arabia pays and Pakistan sends soldiers.

And I think that Israel and the US are waiting for the next phase of this war. They want to make sure that Saudi Arabia doesn’t fall. Because it’s very unstable. These fake regimes are very unstable. It takes a week or two of serious military pressure to break them, topple them. They are not Iran.

They are not even Israel. So they are waiting for Pakistani forces to move into Saudi Arabia and guarantee Saudi Arabia’s survival and safety. This is number three. And number four, which is very interesting. We just saw today that Indonesia signed a defense agreement with the U.S. And what is the meaning of this in this timing?

And I’m taking this to mean this is not certain, but this is possible and maybe plausible. that they want to use Indonesian soldiers for a land invasion of Iran as part of this Iran war. Because they are promising Pakistan $5, $10, $20, I don’t know how much. And this serves the bigger, the bigger

objective of causing a rift in the Islamic world that will break it and make the Islamic world cease to be a challenge for the Judeo-Christian so-called civilization and domination of much of this planet. They’ll take on Russia and China later. So they need to resupply. They need to find new ways to attack Iran.

They are waiting for Pakistani forces to establish themselves in Saudi Arabia to make sure that it survives. And it includes infantry, but also airplanes and potentially air defense batteries. This is a serious military effort on the part of Pakistan

Professor John Mearsheimer mentioned in passing that the failure of the talks would strengthen the hand of the hardliners in Iran. Shanaka Anslem Perera, who admittedly likes to paint in bright colors, goes further than that and argues that the structure that Iran has adopted to protect itself from US attacks could impossible to reach a settlement:

From the end of his tweet:

The Mosaic Doctrine saved the regime. It may also have made the regime incapable of making peace. Decentralized command structures are designed to survive attacks. They are not designed to produce coherent diplomatic commitments. The same architecture that prevented collapse after Khamenei’s death now prevents any single Iranian official from delivering what the United States demands. The 31 provincial commands can fight independently. They cannot negotiate collectively. And no ceasefire, no peace deal, no “affirmative commitment” can be binding when the institution that would have to honor it publicly accuses the man who would sign it of shaking hands with murderers.

Mind you, many commentators, such as Mearsheimer to Chas Freeman, have said Iran knows the war will be settled on the battlefield, and so the Mosaic structure impeding negotiations means what looks like a bug is indeed a feature.

Now to the economic front. A wee wake-up call from the Wall Street Journal, Iran War’s Economic Shock Wave Is Expected to Get Even Bigger Gee, ya think?

President Trump’s naval blockade of Iran risks further upending a global economy already battered by weeks of war, escalating a regional clash into a worldwide financial shock that could prove more devastating than the fighting itself.

The U.S. blockade on ships entering or exiting Iranian ports is set to drain more oil from a tight market, prolong the squeeze on other key commodities flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and inject significant uncertainty into the global economy.

Oil prices jumped on Monday. Aluminum prices surged to a four-year high amid fears of prolonged supply squeeze from a region producing nearly a 10th of the world’s supply of the key industrial metal.

The oil shock is already rippling through Asia, forcing some factories to slash production and a small but growing number of gas stations to ration fuel. Airports across the region are starved for jet fuel with no quick fix in sight, and some airlines are already paring back flights.

NO1 points out:

Physical oil prices at record highs despite suppressed futures. Physical crude cargoes for prompt delivery to Europe hit a record near $150/barrel per Reuters/LSEG. North Sea Crude spot hit a new all-time high at ~$149 per @JustDario. Meanwhile, WTI/Brent futures remain pinned around $99-104. The $50 paper-physical disconnect is being called manipulation by multiple sources

I cannot prove it but I imagine a reason, aside from misleading the Confidence Fairy, is that prices at the pump tend to move in relation to futures prices. I watched this during Covid: any rise in futures price would lead in a day or two to increases at retailers, which curious would not be unwound as rapidly when futures prices fell. Recall that this is not the result of actual cost changes; it takes a while for price shifts to work their way through supply chains.

But Trump last night blathered on about how the Iranians were calling him, desperate for a deal. That produced lead story headlines in Bloomberg and the Financial Times Aljazeera kinda-sorta took this up but then had to ‘fess up that this was only the intermediaries like Pakistan trying to get talks rebooted.

And investors seem desperate to goose asset prices based on any dim inkling of hopeful news…even from the obvious fabulist Trump. A major story in the Nikkei:

And while we are on the topic of Trump’s credibility:

At 8:15, when warmonger Hillary Clinton is comparatively sane, you know it’s bad.

_____

1Mercognliano read the Notice to Mariners on his video but in case you prefer to read it:

2 For instance:

Pascal Lottaz elicits some details from Marandi I did not hear elsewhere about the steps the Iranian side took to prevent assassination, like flying back in a different plane than the one they used to go to the talks (which I assume also flew back), which then made an abrupt landing right inside Iran and discharged its passengers, who then returned to Iran on train. They also turned over all their cell phones and electronic devices, which traveled separately.

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257 comments

  1. KD

    The blockade is a typical Trump gambit, an aggressive sound-bite doomed to crash and burn on the rocks of reality. First, there is no UN security counsel resolution or anything else internationally which gives the US the right to unilaterally blockade commercial vessels leaving the Straights of Hormuz. Neither the US nor Iran have ratified UNCLOS. Nor is it comparable to Iran. Internationally, countries are granted 12 miles of coastal waters, so between Oman and Iran, all commercial vessels passing through the Straights are in coastal waters of Oman and Iran, not international waters. Contra the US, which is just messing with the “freedom of navigation” they talk about.

    Pushing this blockade will end up in taking acts of war against China. No one knows what China will do, but that is why the blockade is dangerous, foolish, and will probably end in a TACO when it becomes clear that China is at high-rsk of becoming a direct belligerent.

    Obviously, the likelihood that the Houthi’s close the Red Sea, and this Blockade if implemented will cause untold damage in oil markets and beyond. This war with Iran is on borrowed time before horrible economic consequences followed by humanitarian consequences roil the world.

    1. Christopher Mann

      …doomed to crash and burn on the rocks of reality.

      This is the crux of the matter. The USA blindly refuses to accept the facts on the ground. Donny Boy has gotten himself into a position than he cannot extricate himself from. Iran cannot be defeated conventionally. Operation Barbarossa comes to mind.

      The rest of the world, except Israel, hates America. The town bully has been given a few slaps by a much smaller but tougher assailant who weathered the bully’s flurry of blows. A few younger guys have been training hard and watching the bully’s moves. They reckon they can take him. The only thing holding them back is the fear that the bully or his sidekick might do a murder-suicide in a narcissistic rage at being beaten in a stand-up fight.

      The world will never be the same again. This is not a Suez moment. It is something much bigger, where the world order for the next century or two is being laid down. America needs to decide whether it wants to be an adult or remain a permanent emotionally retarded teenager.

      1. tegnost

        I’d say the awareness of us decline all started with the lackluster performance of us weapons in ukraine.

      2. KD

        In light of the Trump-Jesus post and last week’s civilization destruction, it strikes me that if little Marco and J.D. the ersatz-Bubba Vance could grow a set, they would Article XXV Trump’s @$$, have Witless and Kushner arrested on charges of treason and corruption, and get the US out of this war. Even better, find a way to have Bibi get a vacation to the Hague, that would probably get the Israeli’s on script for awhile. Otherwise, J.D. Bubba and lil’ Marco are politically finished, and no one will even buy their books.

        1. Bugs

          I think we’d all like it but the sunk cost fallacy is completely ignored by this particular cohort. There’s a cultish aspect to it, even at the top. I don’t think they can imagine taking down Papa Don.

          1. southern appalachian

            Seems similar to how the Dems treated Biden. As if the next generation has no capacity.

            I know Yves has had several posts circling around elite failure and the decline of operational capacity – ie,
            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04/devolution-and-the-decline-in-operational-capacity-and-elite-managerial-competence.html

            All seems to be accurate. Unfortunate timing, with the hegemonic collapse and ecosystem collapse sort of hitting at the same time.. Thinking I should look up some of Lambert’s posts on sheet mulch.

      3. ChrisPacific

        America needs to decide whether it wants to be an adult or remain a permanent emotionally retarded teenager.

        The former would require the US to admit fault. If there is one bedrock principle of American culture through the ages, it’s never, ever to do that. For example, they maintain to this day that the use of nuclear weapons against Japan was justified.

    2. Revenant

      Irregular verbs in Farsi

      Lesson One: Hormuz

      I am policing my national waters
      You are blockading an international passage
      He is a pirate on the High Seas

      (Caith do focain bally gach aon lá!)

      1. KD

        If we believe the CIA/Wikipedia:

        Conflicts have occurred when a coastal nation claims an entire gulf as its territorial waters while other nations only recognize the more restrictive definitions of the UNCLOS. Claims that draw the baseline at more than 24 nautical miles (two 12 nm limits) are judged excessive by the US.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea

        I think Hormuz is 21 nm at the narrow, so well within what the US doesn’t judge to be “excessive” if these decisions were rooted in principle not politics, as far as Iranian territorial waters. Certainly, the part that you can take a supertanker through is in the middle, so there is a reasonable claim to the part of the Straights that matters.

  3. TJBuff

    Is Mr Market doing the “I better get while the gettings good” thing ? Or have they gone full Cheney “We create our own reality” ?

    1. Bob from Kansas

      I see on CNBC this morning they are now showing May and June US Oil Prices, and June Oil prices are $5 lower than May. They are saying this is because they are expecting “demand Destruction”. Or in other words a recession. So, IMHO, the big boys ion the market will stay in and pump the market until the get the word, then it is every private 401k out fro them selves. The best way to time the market is to be early rather than late.

      I think I am ready to cash in what is remaining in my 401K.

  4. bertl

    On the basis of past experience of US military piracy, any attempt to block an oceangoing vessel by the US after it leaves the Straits of Hormuz can be regarded as a potential act of piracy and a war crime and would justify armed retaliation by that vessel or any vessel engaged to protect it from such an eventuality. One can only hope that the surviving Americans are not subjected to the US tactic of being shot, bombed, burnt to death, or left to drown in the sea.

  5. Bob from Kansas

    I have been keeping up with Gas and Oil prices since I have to drive to Washington state soon, a 2000 mile drive in a truck that gets 22 MPG (Adding about $140 to my costs since pricing last month). Suffice to say all this have me very confused if I should leave earlier to save on gas money. Can someone make an educated guess for me? Why are gas and oil prices going down right now? It makes no sense. I saw on CNBC that this could be from “demand destruction”, or is it the markets now just think everything will always turn out fine?

    It just seems like the market is not acting normally…bitcoin and gold way up this morning? BITCON????!!!??

    1. GC54

      If Iran’s notion of tolls being paid in Bitcoin holds then Trump family big holders would make bank. More insider pre-positioning to tap this lucrative flow?

    2. earthling

      The markets are wacky. I am starting to see amateur traders throw up their hands in frustration at what is looking increasingly like a game rigged by and for Trump insiders.

      I am not an oil analyst but am traveling the US right now and it’s no worse than it was a few years ago when there was a supply crisis. Keep in mind 80% of the world’s oil does not go through Hormuz, and right now the USA has its own supplies moving along okay. Later when we can’t get the right amount of distillates etc. we are headed for problems, but right now it is Asia which is suffering as the 20% which does go through Hormuz is stopped.

    3. Valiant Johnson

      I am glad to drive electric vehicles in a place with relatively cheap power. Even without solar charging it costs about 8 cents per mile for energy to run my truck Ford F-150 Lighting. The equivalent gas engine F-150 costs 33 cents per mile. This is in CA where gas is expensive.
      I think old Elon is smacking his lips.
      Electric cars are about to become very popular.

    4. jefemt

      I believe vehicle fuel is the prime example of an inelastic demand commodity?
      Just look at any ‘Murican city on a recent Sunday afternoon or Friday evening. One driver, per car, and traffic backed to each light and cross street. No bicycles to be seen other than a few obviously dispossessed street peeps. Demand destruction my ass. The demand destruction will be for prompt payments on debt, and ‘frivolities’ (pick yer poison). Oil and gas will be the last to lose their place in line.

      Rent a Corolla or other hyper-miler. Cut costs in 1/2.
      Look at Craigslist for ride-share, share costs and driving.
      Rent return vehicle if you are moving crap.
      Sell the crap in WA, remote. Skip the trip.

      Wait til late June– there is no prettier time to be in the Pac NW than 2nd 1/2 June through August…. prices be damned.

      I doubt Trump and Miller will institute rationing, because Freedumb, but rationing and emergency powers are looming. So waiting might make NO sense at all….

      Solicited alternative ideas…

      1. jobs

        I wonder if we’ll see riots before November. I gather those could be used as an excuse to declare martial law and cancel the midterm elections.

  8. ScotsBloke

    I have been thinking about the current situation in terms of game theory. (I am a retired financial economist, so I know a bit about this.)

    The obvious game here is called “Chicken”, and I am sure people who take part here are familiar with this game. There are four possibilities in the game:
    1. “A Swerve / B Swerve” 2. A Swerve / B Straight” 3. “A Straight / B Swerve” 4. “A Stay / B Stay”

    In 2 and 3, the swerver loses. In 4, both lose. Option 1 is the avoidance of the negative outcome by both parties and can only be achieved through coordination/cooperation. In Nash Equilibrium terms, the two equilibria (2 and 3) are asymmetric in that either A or B is the loser. Both want to avoid the catastrophic outcome 4.

    The best strategy in the game is to do the opposite of what the opponent does. However, IMHO this best strategy does not entirely fit in with what has happened since 28 February, so perhaps the game is somewhat modified, or it could be a different one. (Prisoners’ Dilemma, anyone?)

    But assuming the game is a reasonable description of the conflict, it predicates that one or the other party will adopt the opposite approach to the other.

    Given what has been said today, it is clear that Iran has gone against the blockade by keeping their toolbooth open.

    What the game mechanism shows is that without 1, which requires negotiation, the likely way forward is outcomes 2 and 3, which are the Nash equilibria.

    When the game does include signalling–and it seems a very important omission in the base case–it changes the nature of the game. This signalling can take the form of “commitment”, which in the game involves breaking the wheel and hence not swerving or building a reputation for being irrational or tough, thus prompting the other side to swerve.

    One possibility–and we see this in Trump–is to signal “crazy” in that the player values the win so highly that they are irrational in that they don’t care about outcome 4.

    Note the Bayesian Nash equilibrium is for the player to signal they are sticking to going straight, thus persuading their opponent to swerve.

    While this is quite stylised, in my view, it does capture the essence of what is going on.

    Just my 1/2p’s worth.

    1. Adam1

      “One possibility–and we see this in Trump–is to signal “crazy” in that the player values the win so highly that they are irrational in that they don’t care about outcome 4.”

      I’d agree and assume Trump doesn’t believe outcome 4 would ever actually happen so he continues “straight”. On the Iranian side this is an existential crisis for them so option 4 is still a valid outcome even if not desired; and they don’t trust the US to give much weight to actually achieving option 1.

    2. flora

      Thanks for the explanation. What happens to the theory if one of the participants is demented, incapable of assessing the situation realistically ?

      1. ScotsBloke

        The theory assumes rationality in the players. The “crazy” behaviour is a game move, not the psychological behaviour of a deranged individual or system.

        Of course, if people/countries act irrationally, then any theory or model will fail to be applicable by default.

        1. hereweare

          Does it matter if the irrationality is actual or faked when one side “values the win so highly that they are irrational in that they don’t care about outcome 4”?

        2. Steve H.

          Howard Becker:
          > Here’s the [Machine] trick: Design the machine that will produce the result your analysis indicates occurs routinely in the situation you have studied. Make sure you have included all the parts – all the social gears, cranks, belts, buttons, and other widgets – and all the specifications of materials and their qualities necessary to get the desired result.

          The 2×2 matrix is incomplete. Irrationality is a perception in a mirror box. The current administration doesn’t even operate on quarterly reports per Wall Street, it operates on Friday/Monday long/shorts. The inflation charts in todays Linked The mystery variable that explains stubbornly low consumer sentiment G. Elliott Morris are might clarifying about how the previous administration led to this administration. There are players who believe they’re ‘gonna make lots of money’ off Stay/Stay, and they’re probably right.

      1. ScotsBloke

        Yes, that was my alternative (I do mention the Prisoners’ Dilemma in my original post. Tit-for-tat relates to an iterated version of the Prisoners’ Dilemma game where the players can punish each other. So, this also works and has some advantages compared to the chicken game. I choose the latter because of where we are in the Ramadan War.
        But you are right.

  9. Carolinian

    I’ve never quite understood the “futures market=gas station pricing” thing or how gas station prices are justified against charges of collusion and manipulation. I know there are designated price “zones” and parts of my town where the stations are consistently cheaper than other parts. We the mere public are confused.

    But the above being true I guess I should be grateful that the futures market is at least temporarily keeping my gas price below the $5/gallon level. Out west they are already paying that.

    It’s Wall Street’s world. We just live in it.

    1. Wukchumni

      I’ve never bought a barrel of oil and nobody I know has ever purchased one…

      Kinda shocking now, but a 1964 or prior silver Dime will buy you a gallon of gas in Cali now, in metal value.

      1. Kouros

        So as long as the prices increases they make more money, always blaming the replacement price of their inventory, eh?! Also when the price goes done present similar opportunities, in reverse.

    3. motorslug

      I know you’ve got lots of CircleK in the Carolinas. Hopefully you’re a member of their club and do the easy pay. They frequently have .20-.40 discounted days and earned deals.
      Cumberland Farms does similar but I don’t recall seeing those in the mid-SE areas.

      1. Carolinian

        The Circle K near me charges the same as the typically lowest price Walmart/Murphy.

        The gas price is not a crisis for me since my car can get 45 mpg highway and my town is small. Those suburbanites in big cities are up against it.

        1. Wukchumni

          Over the course of growing up in El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles del Río de Porciúncula, it became fashionable to live out in BFE and commute to work, and what a life-at least a few hours in the saddle 5 days a week.

          Those are the ones that’ll feel the pain if go-juice goes up quite a bit or got forbid!, it gets rationed ala 1979.

          Expect a thriving market in late model license plates in odd and even numbers on eBay.

        2. SVBoy

          you are very mistaken if you think that suburbanites are the only people effected by this. It is the farmers, transporters, energy producers whose increased costs will be transmitted holistically to the entire country and globe. what an incompetent in chief and his band of incompetent ghouls

    4. JonnyJames

      Yup, almost 6 bucks/gal. or more for cheap grade gasoline and just under 8 bucks or more for Diesel in “Cali”
      https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=CA

      And the highest electricity prices in the country. (Pacific Gas and Electric) with the possible exception of Hawaii

  10. MicaT

    I’m wondering why if the talks were bad and no stated plans for more why is the ceasefire still in effect? Why isnt Israel bombing Lebanon and Iran again? Why isn’t the US? Or if they are I’ve read nothing about it.
    Sure a few weeks of break allows some
    Weapons transfer, but enough to make any difference?

    2. ISL

      There are reports about an Islamabad 2 on Thursday (from No. 1 from three sources).

      Meanwhile, if the shooting restarts, the resupplies become more problematic (Israel interceptors, Rusia and China to Iran), and Trump had gotten himself into a corner where his only escalation was nuclear – I presume Trump has some fantastical plan for a ground invasion with a handful of troops – but even that takes time after the Eagle Claw 2 fiasco in west Iran (More bigly than the Carter fiasco!).

      1. tegnost

        This was ritters take yesterday on the deep dive, that usa cut off negotiations in order to do some posturing with the blockade only to restart negotiations and say it was the blockade that made iran blink and donald claims to be the peacemaker again, stocks soar. Personally I think us elites/politicos are far more diabolical and have internalized their merit as a result of their force of will and their aspiration is global control of resource allocation and the accompanied control over said orb. See Palantir, AWS, Google and all the rest of the AI grift. They are disruptors and they won’t quit. By some definition they must go too far otherwise they will not know if they went as far as they could have.

    3. motorslug

      Wasn’t there just a bit, comment or link not sure, yesterday about non-stop C-17 flights, mainly from UK and DE to West Asia?
      Scavenging all the supplies of weapons from EU/Ukr to protect the little hats I’m guessing.

    4. nippersdad

      Kind of a tangent, but I saw something yesterday on the YT Times of India that said dozens of tankers were seen lined up at Ben Gurion airport. It is at the approximately 4:30 mark.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_pcofcfB7M&t=333s

      And I was thinking that would have posed a perfect opportunity to pull a Trump on Trump. While it might look bad for Iran to break the pause, one can only imagine how many people may die because of all of that jet fuel that a preemptive strike would prevent. Just a couple of their merved missiles and Ben Gurion, with all of that gas, would be taken off of the board.

    5. ilsm

      “Transfer” of ordnance to CENTOM West aka IDF and US magazine in Mediterranean area is the correct term.

      All US resupply is shift from one of two major war reserve pools. Those being EUCOM, and PACCOM. US is procuring ordnance at snails pace.

      It will be a decade before US delivers new manufactured ordnance at any appropriate scale.

      Hegseth may fire anyone who points out: “soon we will have no ordnance in west PAC”.

      IDF will keep burning ordnance they won’t fight in the Pacific.

  11. Yves Smith Post author

    All done! If you arrived before the time of this comment, please reload this page and re-skim. Be sure not to miss the last addition, from Alon Mizrahi.

    1. ISL

      While I do think Mercogliano is doing a Herculean effort to inform the greater world about the world of shipping (from retirement?)…..

      “Hercogliano posits that captured ships could be escorted into a nearby port.”

      Always thankful the fog of war is (at least) partially lifted at the Naked Capitalism home port (to overuse shipping metaphors).

  12. GC54

    As of 12:24 UTC Rich Starry’s track on the shipping link given has reversed back toward Iran.

    1. Adam1

      Interesting. I wonder if they are appearing to comply until other Chinese naval assets are in a better position to escort cargo ships.

  13. ciroc

    The Mosaic Doctrine saved the regime. It may also have made the regime incapable of making peace. Decentralized command structures are designed to survive attacks. They are not designed to produce coherent diplomatic commitments. The same architecture that prevented collapse after Khamenei’s death now prevents any single Iranian official from delivering what the United States demands. The 31 provincial commands can fight independently. They cannot negotiate collectively. And no ceasefire, no peace deal, no “affirmative commitment” can be binding when the institution that would have to honor it publicly accuses the man who would sign it of shaking hands with murderers.

    In order to avoid making the same mistake again, Iran stripped itself of the right to surrender.

    1. Mikel

      And it should also be considered that decapitation strike after decapitation strike helped to set the stage for difficulty to reach any negotiated agreements.

  14. Samuel Conner

    > It is impossible to overstate the degree to which US armaments inventories and airlift / aerial refueling capabilities are being incrementally exhausted by the ongoing war with Iran.

    This provides an alternative interpretation of Mark Rutte’s remarks about the degrading of military capabilities that is taking place in the Gulf conflict having the effect of making the world safer.

    —

    I’m glad that I was not drinking coffee when I encountered this in John Helmer’s latest piece:

    “However, when the talks reached the level of the principals [ … ] the US side added new deal-breaking conditions, according to the account of Mohammed Marandi, one of the Iranian delegation’s official spokesmen. The first of these was [ … ]; the second was a US half-share in the Hormuz Strait regime tolls. ” (emphasis added)

  15. Timmy

    Bloomberg reporting that Iran Weighs Pausing Hormuz Shipping to Avoid Derailing Talks

    “Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks, according to a person familiar with Tehran’s deliberations.

    The potential pause reflects a desire to avoid immediate escalation at a sensitive diplomatic juncture as Washington and Tehran sort logistics for another face-to-face meeting, the person said, asking not to be identified as the deliberations are private.”

    I wonder if Iran is slow-walking this to let macro pressure build. I find it strange that the issue Bloomberg and Trump have repeatedly mentioned in the last 24 hours is enrichment and Iran’s control of the strait is left out of the negotiation conversation. Would they trade an open strait for some ability to enrich? I hadn’t thought so..

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I do not trust any Western outlet that cites a single anonymous source on Iran. This is not credible. And not even one they depict as official or even in Iran.

      But this is in Bloomberg and so looks intended to keep the markets jacked up.

      Several ships just left ports, FFS. China is making loud but so far general noises that it is not at all on board with the US blockade but even if it wanted to Do Something besides whinge, it might take as long as a week to get things sorted.

  16. david lamy

    DeadXers have been having a field day mocking this article’s Iran Exclusive tweet. They have full confidence in the standoff torpedoes (Boeing product) carried by the P3 Orion ability to wipe out that fleet of submarines. If those torpedoes don’t work then a destroyer will surely get the submarine. Sure.
    This is where our media’s refusal to cover accurately all the damage inflicted on our western Asia bases is so damaging to our county. Too the media’s lack of respect for Iranian culture and their high educational standards particularly in engineering is keeping our dumb-dumb polity dumb.
    In these mocking tweets there is not one thought about where the Orion planes take off from. How they get refueled. And how they dodge AA missiles.
    And these subs are just one component of Iran’s Persian Gulf defense. Drones, artillery and missiles make for a Naval suicide mission in operating in the Gulf or waters proximate. The Houthi lesson did not take.
    I suspect that the Persian Gulf is an edge case for these particular standoff weapons. Our systems smoldering in Ukraine and in the GCC has not been duly noted by yet by those who should have noted.
    One lost warship is a disaster. The potential for lost warships is far higher than one.

    1. JonnyJames

      Lack of respect for Iran, history and culture. and profound ignorance. It’s classic hubris, mixed with a western mass media that is little more than sycophant-stenographers, and a deep-seated ethnocentric, Orientalist attitude toward Iran. https://www.britannica.com/science/Orientalism-cultural-field-of-study

      I even hear people like Chris Hedges, Yanis Varoufakis and others who should know better label the Iranian government as the “regime”.

      1. LifelongLib

        Well, it’s the same with Russia. Everything is Putin’s this, that, or the other. No hint that Russia is an actual country with a, like, foreign policy.

        1. JonnyJames

          Yes, Russia is part of the Slavic Orthodox East, backward, barbaric and autocratic blah blah blah. They are part of the “orient” as well and Sam Huntington’s Clash of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

  17. Samuel Conner

    Regarding the Alon Mizrahi discussion of the concept of deployment of ground forces from populous Muslim-majority nations to Saudi Arabia, is it realistic to think of these as cannon fodder for a ground invasion? The logistical problem of supporting a ground force large enough to credibly threaten Iran seems (to my admittedly inexpert eyes) formidable. Perhaps more plausibly, a smaller force could provide a backstop to Kuwait if it were threatened with ground invasion by Iraq or Iran.

    1. Steve H.

      Recall the twin towers were hit by Saudis; that bin Laden was kept in a spectacularly militarized area of Pakistan; and that the Pakistanis probably sold him out, when the time came. Shifty. Is Pakistan’s chief rival still India? How does this affect the Modi government? Can we assume anything about Pakistan?

    2. Quintian and Lucius

      It’s madness to me that Indonesia/Indonesians would be interested in Mizrahi’s hypothetical scheme, I see no upside whatever except that apparently these mercenaries would be paid a comparatively impressive quantity of USD? I admit to not knowing much about Indonesia but I just didn’t think they were poor enough that sending nationals to die in a war of aggression on behalf of the deranged semihegemon would be a sane value proposition.

      1. ISL

        If there is no good scenario for a ground invasion by US forces, it is non-sense to see a good scenario for Indonesian forces.

        put forward by Mizhrahi as “possible” or “plausible” are sheer speculation (click bait-ish)

    3. Shom

      I think the Pak troops are primarily there to stabilize the house of Saud, as Alon says. That includes any misadventures from Western troops who might want to force Sauds back in line for not being sufficiently belligerent against Iran.

      That reading makes more sense than Pakistan and SA going from negotiating partners/facilitators to antagonists in a week.

    4. Revenant

      If the US and Indonesia have any overlapping interests, it is not in Indoniesua becoming cannon fodder for wars with its neighbours (China, Iran, maybe India or Myanmar etc).

      It is in the US tying down Indonesian loyalty in its control of the Strait of Malacca.

      Expect Malaysia, the other meaningful littoral country of the strait, to be under US pressure to pledge allegiance.

      Of course, both countries follow idiosyncratic, non-Wahhabi traditions of Islam and have struggled with Saudi-sponsored Wahhabi terror preachers so their allegiance with the GCC over Iran is not clear-cut.

      Also Indonesia is a country rich in minerals and petrochemicals. The US may be hoping for rare earths and helium to show up there, although ironically in China’s backyard….

        1. dommage

          The Prabowo government may be working both sides of the street, what they call non-alignment, but you can be sure they are looking over their shoulder at a popular consensus about U.S./Israel. Last week there was a massive demonstration at the U.S. embassy in Jakarta protesting an Israeli attack that killed three Indonesian UN Peacekeepers in Lebanon.

    5. vidimi

      I don’t see the point of Pakistan sending troops to Saudi for a ground invasion of Iran if they could do that from….Pakistan

    6. Who Cares

      Regarding the Alon Mizrahi discussion of the concept of deployment of ground forces from populous Muslim-majority nations to Saudi Arabia, is it realistic to think of these as cannon fodder for a ground invasion?

      No amphibious capacity to traverse the Gulf from Saudi Arabia to Iran. No shared land border between Saudi Arabia and Iran. No supply capacity that can support marching an army through Iraq let alone into Iran.

      Pakistan is already fighting a war with Afghanistan. Preparing to start a second war with an enemy they share a border with by sending away troops and materiel is Trump level idiocy. Speaking of borders, the separatists in Balochistan, the Pakistani province bordering Iran, would have a field day disrupting the supply lines. Do note that Pakistan accuses India of providing support at all levels for the separatists.
      The idea of Indonesia fighting Iran, even if it is from bases in Saudi Arabia, would have had me guffawing half a year ago. These days I shrug at the idea since the world has gone so insane with regards to the Middle East that there is an actual chance leaders are crazy enough to do so.

      That means any forces from these two countries moved to Saudi Arabia are there for defenses purposes, do note that this can include the defense of the ruling family against their own population, and at most as you wrote capable of short range force projection at the level of putting Kuwait under a protective umbrella.

    7. Kouros

      How you transport and stage all these people, tens of thousands? And where you attack from? Cross into Kuwait and Iraq to reach Iran? Via boats across the Persian Gulf? This beggars belief…

      1. hk

        I think this is the most likely, but is not mutually exclusive eith protecting the monarchy: the Hajj did provide occasion in the past for violent “troublemakers” to gather in Mecca: I think there were a few incidents (involving Iranians, incidentally) back in 80s, but it seems that there had been political violence associated with the event going back practically to the beginning.

  18. HH

    There is some evidence that the old KC-135 tankers are falling apart because of heavy use in the Iran war. I have seen two reports of retired KC-135s pulled out of boneyard storage. This war looks to be the last big U.S. expeditionary campaign as the aging and obsolescent U.S. arsenal depletes and disintegrates.

  20. Quintian and Lucius

    Regarding commentary on the IRGC’s mosaic command – I think critical to this question of coordinated decision making is whether or not Mojtaba Khameini is alive, well, and actually understood to be in command. The statement from Vahidi is the first time I’ve more than casually considered that he may not in fact be around, let alone in control – although it might not be as drastic a disagreement as say your intelligence services and defense department enabling opposite sides of the same conflict like has occurred in some schizophrenic empires I know, it’s still a concerning potential impediment to any off-ramp.

    1. Socal Rhino

      I’ve seen media attempting to describe the mosaic structure as Iran being run by 31 warlords. I think it’s just a delegation of tactical decision making during war to avoid a single point of failure paralyzing responses. Strategic decisions are still centralized. What has been seen is delays in central decisions being received by all commanders since Iran is not using electronic communications.

      During talks in Pakistan it was the US, not Iran, that appeared hobbled by an unclear delegation of authority.

      1. Quintian and Lucius

        Of course by the standards of the diplomacy-deficient and agreement-incapable imperial center, Iran looks well-coordinated – the standard is comically low here – but doing better than the US does not mean all is well. 31 warlords is obviously absurd, but it could well be the case that the late Khamenei was more effective at holding together factions (which exist at all times in all organizations of any complexity) that are now fraying apart.

  21. Shom

    Alon’s conjecture about Pakistani troops in Saudi Arabia being there to stabilize the house of Saud in the turbulent times ahead seems on the money. Sunni majority countries like Pakistan, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia still do have sympathy for their Shia brethren and do not look to be poised to go to war against them on the empty promises of the West.

    Indeed one of the destabilizing factors operational in SA are the thousands of Western troops that are temporarily ‘working remotely’ from various hotels and apartments in SA, Bahrain and UAE. They may attempt to enforce western belligerent orthodoxy on the Sauds if they seem to be too conciliatory towards Iran in trying to preserve their rule. The Pak troops will help calm things down.

    1. JohnH

      Pakistani troops could serve a couple useful functions besides just protecting the royal family or deterring Iranian attacks. One would be to reduce/eliminate US “protection,” which has been shown to mostly to protect Israel. The other would be to forestall s Shia uprising, Shia being a significant portion of the population in the Eastern (Oil) Province.

      The other interesting aspect is that both China and the US have a lot of influence with the Pakistani military, and Pakistan is well known to play them off against each other to their own advantage.

    3. upstater

      I thought the quick transfer of thousands of ISIS Jihadis detained In Syria and moved to Iraq were going to be deployed by the CIA to liberate Iran from the Shiite.

  22. Michael Fiorillo

    Uber Russiagate grifter Malcolm Nance was touted as an intelligence expert during that protracted bit of #McResistance delirium and magical thinking, and had himself filmed cavorting in uniform with Azov types in Ukraine; now he’s an expert on blockades, too?

    Anything the man says transacts at an extremely high discount, and doesn’t deserve inclusion here.

    1. Revenant

      He’s a cowardly preening fraud and fantasist, judging by his reports from the Ukraine.

      At least prefix his name with “Azovite clown, Malcolm Nance” to give otherwise unsuspecting readers a red flag! :-)

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      This is ad hominem and a violation of our written site Policies.

      It’s also lame and lazy. We also pointed to a section in the Janta Ka clip where Hillary trashed the Trump negotiation by comparing it to the JCPOA process, in which she was involved, and which included telling Netanyahu to fuck off. So we are also to dismiss Hillary’s observations because Hillary even though others who know those talks have made similar points?

      He’s actually worked on implementing a blockade and boarded hostile ships. Have you?

      Please give me a logically valid basis for disputing what he said.

      1. Michael Fiorillo

        For what it’s worth, his Wikipedia page says nothing about him being involved in naval blockades, listing his training in cryptology, counter-terrorism and the like.

        I stand by my assertions of his opportunism and untrustworthiness.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          Sorry, that proves nothing, My Wikipedia page is shite.

          He speaks Arabic and his bio at Congress says he was involved in combat operations. Language competence will get you assigned to a lot of projects. He probably did do quite a few things at a superficial level, which = a lot of war stories.

          1. JoSixPack

            Apologies, but Malcom Nance was never in combat.

            “Now we are at his “not honorable” comment. Ironically it was noticed that Nance was wearing a Combat Action Ribbon (CAR) on his lapel. In full disclosure, yes, the authorization to wear the ribbon was placed into his service record after he left NSGA Rota, yet as a matter of honor; he had failed to be honest and explain that he was never in combat. The Fleet Navy has its own standard for that award. In Nance’s case he was either on or near a ship that fired missiles, or was close to a SCUD splash down. When this happens, the award goes to all members of the ship(s). As a matter of honor, his personal awards do not show direct action, or even influence in these matters. Certainly, no valor or Combat “V” to be noted.”

            https://sofrep.com/news/a-matter-of-honor-the-fiction-of-malcolm-nance/

            As well as has a history of telling lies.

            https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2023/03/26/msnbc-pundit-goes-to-fight-in-ukraine-acts-like-a-disruptive-troll-and-leaves/

            https://theintercept.com/2018/07/08/msnbc-does-not-merely-permit-fabrications-against-democratic-party-critics-it-encourages-and-rewards-them/

            1. Yves Smith Post author

              I hate to tell you but this is ad hominem and has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with whether Nance, in his time with the Navy, learned about efforts of blockade running ships to resist boarding and capture of their vessels. He could have heard that if he had merely been mopping a deck on a ship that carried out operations like that, or being in the room when someone discussed an actual incident.

              A quick gander on the Internet does suggest that resisting boarding by trying to prevent access to the cabin is not unheard of. So this is not a fabrication.

          2. Michael Fiorillo

            So, the man was running point for one of the biggest political psy-ops of our time, which went a huge way towards discrediting opposition to Trump, but now because he’s speaking out against Trump and Netanyahu’s war, we should believe what he says?

            So what if he speaks Arabic (and, given his record, I’ll believe that when I see it, and assume he speaks Arabic like Buttigieg speaks Norwegian) and so what if he just happens to be right in any particular video? He has a long record of dishonesty and has never been held to account for it. Why should it be any different now?

            Certainly NC can do better than him.

  23. simpleton

    Probably a non-concensus view here but I think this all blows over in the next couple weeks.

    I wouldn’t say capitulation but it looks like Iran has given up its opportunity at economic pressure. Why agree to a ceasefire when you hold all the cards? I know the Strait is still effectively blocked but this all feels like pageantry on their part.

    As stupid as the US looks now I still think Iran could have played this better and kept pushing… I love your coverage Yves but I’m not convinced by your analysis. We will get an inflation burp from the month of interrupted oil supply but I can’t imagine the Iranians want to crash the world economy after China was whispering in their ear.

    1. Samuel Conner

      Even if the conflict ends soon (which is earnestly to be hoped for), I think that there will still be significant economic dislocations as the weeks of interruption of commodities shipments through the Strait propagates through supply chains. Perhaps of greatest concern is the interruption of fertilizer shipments, which I think must have the effect of depressing agricultural output later this year, even if the Strait were to be re-opened immediately.

      1. simpleton

        I think the economic dislocations will be largely limited to southeast asia and the like. Probably also some “3rd world” countries in Africa and elsewhere. It’ll be painful and annoying but assuming shipping resumes the USA won’t be terribly hurt by this. Europe less so but still not on the scale of doom that’s been written about here.

          1. JonnyJames

            Yes, the white well-to-do in the west are making a killing. “Im alright Jack, keep your hands off my stack” The rest can “go die”

            Meanwhile, even in wealthy California, I see more people who are homeless, mentally ill, acts of despair, and a nihilistic attitude of social collapse. Last week I was at the petrol/gas station and saw a woman’s vehicle had a bumper sticker that read “F*%K your feelings” with a crude stick figures. For a split second, my inner child felt like yelling at her “F you too, you fkn cow” but I realized that this woman is miserable and likely has very low quality of life, like many. In a second I went from angry knee-jerk response to feeling sorry for her.

            I see more reckless, dangerous drivers, crumbling roadways, antiquated electrical infrastructure etc. At the same time I see vulgar displays of obscene wealth from those with coastal 2nd and 3rd homes, driving expensive cars etc. The class divide is not only on paper, it is hidden in plain sight. If I just hung out in Los Altos, Palo Alto or Marin County I would never know that the plebs are having a tough time, unless I talked to one of the servants.

            And it’s only getting worse…

        3. Will

          > assuming shipping resumes

          Mercogliano in one of his videos said it’ll take at least a week to recover for each day Hormuz is closed. We’re at over 40 days, so almost a year before we can expect shipping to get back to normal. And even if it did, will all the damaged and destroyed refining, processing and other capacity have been repaired or rebuilt in time to feed waiting tankers and cargo ships?

          But even if we assume a world in which only “Southeast Asia and the like…and ‘3rd world’ countries” are affected how does that not affect the U.S.? Cuz they don’t trade with the U.S.?

    2. ISL

      and Netanhayoo (owner of the secret trump files or whatever hold he has) sings Kumbaya and heads off to jail for the rest of his life for corruption in Israel?

      Would love to believe you are right, but the story you tell neglects Israel and as there would be NO WAR without Israel, so please tell us a plausible story that includes Israel (channeling my inner Mearsheimer).

      1. jefemt

        I would say Iran is open to swerve, and also 4.
        Israel, with Nutting-yahoo at the helm, abetted by some very scary hardliners– on the other hand, is Option 4.
        Israel Iran have different, deeper issues than what the 250 year old experiment can adequately understand. Y M M V

      2. simpleton

        I think crashing the global economy is not in their interest either. They can always resume attacks years down the line. It’s up to Iran to determine whether they can deal with that eventuality when it arrives.

        Everyone seems to forget that at the end of the day people just want to get paid…

        2. ISL

          So you see Netanyahoo being deposed? Assassinated? I would celebrate! But that is predicting a black swan. Vance “reported” (“as they do everyday” – Judge Nap and J Mearsheimer”) to Netanyahu during the failed “peace” talks, where the US reversed its position (true – typical Trump, but raises the question – who is in the driver seat).

          Both the US and Israeli leadership are acting as dictators, acknowledging no balance of power or limits on their powers. Trump just envisioned himself as Jesus, so not even acknowledging physics constraints him.

          1. simpleton

            Look I loathe Netanyahu like everyone else, but you seem preoccupied with the topic.

            I think Netanyahu’s chances at staying in power during a global recession are worse than accepting Iranian demands but turning around and propagandizing to the Israelis all sorts of hogwash to keep up the state of emergency.

          2. Matthew

            Yes, the reply to Yves’ speculation about Vance is that he was not the ranking member of the delegation, and that they were all answering to Netanyuhu–or that Trump had instructed them to answer to N.

            This dovetails w speculation that Netanyuhu has only to cast Trump the ‘Epstein glance’ to get him in line–Hillary in the above video talks about refusing N’s demands for ‘an open-ended war’ many times (this is good hard news, true that it’s nuts to be welcoming HER thoughts!). She also ridicules the make-up of the negotiating team,’ with no hard or soft skills to carry out such negotiations in the first place, and the idea that Trump ‘didn´t know’ that the Iranians might block the Strait. . . this is a lot of flunkies deferring to a VERY disengaged idiot. . . who is apparently held very literally by the short and curlies by a tiny rogue state.

            What I don’t get is why Vance bothered? Is he so anxious for ANY attention that he would blunder into such a botch just to come back with nothing? (He’s currently the least popular veep EVER, according to some polls!) Why aren’t people like he and Vance and Tulsi–who used to round on Trump when he was running–speaking up now? Despite Jaime Dimon trying to calm the markets this morning with objective tomfoolery, they are–quite beyond mere phony tribal red-blue considerations–risking the world on this stoopidy. Maybe there’s a reason that pride is the greatest biblical sin and the risk of backing out and looking foolish overcomes all other considerations for public figures because. . . their actions at this stage begin to defy simplest sense.

            1. Copeland

              “Epstein glance”

              More & more, I think T may be more afraid of “the kiss of death” from Netanyahu.

        3. nippersmom

          Everyone seems to forget that at the end of the day people just want to get paid…

          That is a very broad assumption. Not everyone’s primary motivation is financial.

          1. JonnyJames

            And empty “get paid” can mean doing a hard day’s work to build something, or pushing a button to mass murder children. The lame excuse I hear some people also say is “don’t hate the playah, hate the game” as a convenient excuse for criminality and immorality.

            Or getting paid can mean not understanding something when the paycheck depends on not understanding. (variation of Upton Sinclair) Our mass media sycophant-stenographers do understand that bit

          2. simpleton

            If the US and Iran come to a deal and one of those is the release of assets and removal of sanctions then it’s safe to say everyone cares about getting paid, yes.

        4. John k

          Israel has tried for decades to get us to attack Iran, finally found a us president stupid enough to do it. Us assets are here now, us won’t stop if Israel doesn’t stop. Plus imo substantial flow won’t resume thru strait without war stopped and Iran collecting tolls… even if Iran loses there are independent bits of their military that would be able to launch at least occasional ships and/ot gulf infra, so it will remain a war zone even if Tehran is nuked. Hard to see us/isr giving up until us into deepening recession, say at least another 6 weeks.
          As for Iran showing weakness by agreeing to pause, imo it was on account of Chinese pressure… and I wonder if china now regrets it, just seems to be prolonging the conflict. Certainly seems predictable us would use pause to re-arm, confirming putin’s logic in refusing to allow same in Ukraine.

    3. SupplyGuy

      I work in supply chains and have seen events like this. One of the things that’s going to be coming soon is a hoarding effect for these resources. Once the air bubble hits and there is no more supply for certain people, they are going to place orders to get larger inventory buffers to try to mitigate any risk when this happens across the market generally, the demand for oil is going to be even higher Than the base case further causing Price pressure.

      The street has only been closed for a month and a half, if this continues for four months, the lost oil production from shut ins, will equal the entirety of global reserves (1.2 billion barrels) of which 400 million have already been announced as released.

      To your point if it were to stop today, maybe the capitalist class across the world I’ll try to play it down not reveal how close it came to oblivion

      1. simpleton

        My point is that it won’t make it another month being closed.

        Nobody in power benefits from nuking the global economy.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          I am not sure. For Trump, destruction is a demonstration of his power. And he is a sadist.

          And he has a lot of apocalypse-seeking Evangelicals in his circle.

          1. Wukchumni

            Conventional weaponry isn’t gonna bring on the evangs much desired end-times, and they’ve gotten rid of any high up heathens in the military, for Pete’s sake.

          2. vidimi

            People focus on the evangelicals but ignore the chabadniks. The former believe the messiah will do the killing; the latter that they have to do the killing for the messiah to come

        2. Curious

          It’s going to make it another month before insurance companies are going to feel great about things flowing through.

          Also, the consequences don’t hit for several more months. Once the US tries to stop it at that point, there will be too much baked in.

        3. Curious

          Let’s not forget, the leader of Iran has been marked for death. He lost his father, mother, wife and son in the strikes.

          You have to factor how the rest of the leadership feels about their safety. Did you see the 9 jet escort on the plane ride home from negotiations for them?

          That factors into their decision if they open the strait. As this isn’t a weapon that works unless time passes. So you have to keep it going for it to be effective. So they probably don’t have a chance to ever use it again in this same capacity in the future and have to take advantage of the opportunity if they ever use it.

      2. ChrisFromGA

        Exhibit A – China built up a huge strategic reserve of petroleum. Hoarding on a grand scale, and who can blame them?

        There is a point of no return past which all the hoarding and price games can’t hide the great basket of consequences; we don’t know whether it is today, tomorrow, or four months from now.

        And we have to look at helium, critical minerals, and plastics, not just the dino juice.

    4. Cocomaan

      It’s definitely possible it blows over. Like you say, China whispering in the ear is a major part of it. Will be interesting if sectarianism wins out – does Iran abandon Hezballah to Israel? That seems to be a major sticking point.

      1. simpleton

        Yeah the Lebanon/Hezbollah point is interesting to me. In the media you would think the stinking point are the tolls and uranium enrichment, but I’m skeptical Israel will give up its Lebanon ambitions.

        Maybe it’s cynical but I could see Iran abandoning them despite the rhetoric to the contrary. It’s that or global economic destruction. I know which outcome China prefers.

        1. nippersdad

          I think you may be assuming too much on the part of China. They, along with Russia and their other BRICS members, which include Iran, form an almost perfect autarky. The “burp” you mention may affect them, but they plan decades in advance. They have at least a years’ worth of food and energy stocked up already, and the payoff of getting the US off their back permanently is well in sight.

          They are not in the same position as the ME during the Arab Spring, so I would not expect them to act as if this could derail their plans. Iran is important to China, so, by extension, so is Hezbollah. If another Arab Spring is coming, they are going to need Hezbollah and all of the other Iranian allies to protect their interests in the ME.

          1. simpleton

            Russia may be more insulated but China’s economy depends entirely on exports. Sure they could turtle up and become autarkic if necessary, but their trading partners will all go tits up. That sudden crisis and instability is bad for everyone, even if you can weather it out.

        2. Curious

          Not even nukes from the US could open the strait being closed if Iran doesn’t want to open. “China whispers” aren’t going to have any more effect.

          If Irans leadership views this as existential (which I think they do) that Strait ain’t opening.

          What’s the counter evidence? Because it hasn’t opened yet. They talk about it being open, but it hasn’t in reality opened

    5. NN Cassandra

      The strait is still (double-)closed, so Iran in fact did not “give up its opportunity at economic pressure”.

      1. simpleton

        You’re right, but they also did. Perhaps coming to negotiations is a strategic way to slow-roll the economic damage, but I’m skeptical.

        If you were in such an advantageous position, wouldn’t you want to keep up the pressure for longer until your opponent could actually feel the consequences? As has been covered here, that hasn’t reached the US yet. Gas prices went up a bit but that’s it. The real people hurting are those in Asia, which is probably why China is urging them to cut it out.

        1. jsn

          Or would you want to stop the bombing of your cultural infrastructure while the ratchet slowly wound global commodity markets to the breaking point?

          The 2023-24 Ansar Allah Red Sea closure hasn’t fully resolved through the insurance markets yet and even if everyone quit posturing it would take weeks to clear the Straight and maybe a year for Arab oil infrastructure to get back online.

          Maybe the IRGC caved, maybe when the 2 weeks is up they’ll make a retaliatory unload on Israel for what remains ongoing in Lebanon.

          On the Alon Mizrahi speculation about implications of US Indonesian deal, Indonesia has a military of about 400K active and 400k reserves, nowhere near what’s necessary to do what Mizrahi proposes. Muslim split at alliance level, maybe, at practical level I don’t see operational possibilities, but I’m no expert.

          1. simpleton

            I agree but only up to a point.

            Their leverage requires them walk the fine line of not nuking the global economy while demonstrating strength. I think they could have kept going but it looks like they’re gonna make a deal. Damn shame imo.

            1. Curious

              Iran also has to walk the fine line of not getting literally nuked, and agreeing to negotiations helps then you do that.

    6. tegnost

      We’ve been subjected to the very same “I don’t understand why they don’t just finish them off, they must be losing” yadda yadda re russia in ukraine for years now. The western mindset is all shock and awe but that is not the only way to go about it. Attrition. The pressure is still on, hormuz is closed. Bab al mandeb may soon be closed. I don’t see a comparable escalation path for the usa.
      I do see a us elite that will immiserate any and everyone for a buck and they’ve never faced any consequences for it and don’t expect there will be any consequences.

      1. simpleton

        I think you’re off base with this. The situations are completely different. Nowhere did I say anything about finishing anything off, either.

        All I’m saying is that they appear to be de-escalating just at the peak of their ability to exert pressure. I’m just a simpleton so maybe that’s 5D Iranian chess, but it just strikes me as off.

        The Strait may well remain closed another month and my handwringing will look dumb in retrospect, but I just don’t understand their motivations to negotiate with the US when they admit that they don’t trust US. Why would you believe you could exact lasting concessions from the biggest liars in the history of the world? Especially when you were in such a winning position?

          1. simpleton

            Signaling you want to negotiate is de-escalation. They have been clear that they want peace instead of war.

            We may even get a 2nd meeting b/t US and Iran in a few days if you believe headlines.

            The Strait is their leverage, it’s already been “escalated.” You can’t go further with it than they have, and they appear to be folding now instead of keeping up the pressure.

            1. Curious

              My view is there is strategy and tactics. The Strategy of Iran is to drive wedges in the enemy’s collation through kinetic actions (view gcc and America) (Israel and America) (America and the EU) (America and East Asian countries) etc.

              The strikes are a means to this end.

              The flip of that, is building and strengthening you own coalition. So if China and or Pakistan requests you put good faith efforts in negotiations then you do it, even though it might hurt the prospects of driving your enemies coalition apart.

              The strait is still closed, so your main weapon is still firing, even if you “look weak” to the Americans, I think China and others in your camp will appreciate you tried.

            2. Revenant

              Lol, the USA strung Iran along in negotiations and then attacked unilaterally and perfidiously during them! Was the USA de-escalating?

              There’s jaw-jaw and there’s war-war. Iran may be de-escalating for real or merely performatively by negotiating; it may be using the ceasefire as reculer pour mieux sauter . We don’t know.

              We do know that the Strait is closed by Iran and the USA, hardly economic de-escalation there, and the USA is concentrating assets (I.e. targets!) on the ground within missile range. And the GCC energy infrastructure cannot hide. Perhaps Iran is not interrupting an enemy while he makes a mistake?

              You seem weirdly obsessed that we should all agree that Iran is chickening out when the evidence is open to interpretation.

        2. 4paul

          I see what you’re saying, and I agree, I don’t understand Iran doing essentially nothing.

          Chess was invented in Persia, Persia has had civilization for five thousand years, they have been invaded many times, they have survived this long, but:

          in chess there is the principle that you have to play the position;
          if the position demands you attack because you have the stronger position, then you must attack !!

          Chess analysis if full of explanations for
          “how did I lose?? I had the stronger position!”,
          and the coach says “you should have attacked” –
          “but I am not good at attacking I didn’t feel like attacking”
          … “Then that is why you lost. The position demanded you attack, you did not, therefore, you lost.”

          Life is not fair. The human world does not make sense. But sometimes, there are patterns.

          The Terrorists always win.

          I hope Iran has not made a fatal mistake.

          1. Yves Smith Post author

            IRAN IS NOT DOING NOTHING!

            The Strait is closed. Time is on their side.

            If the patient develops gangrene due to the failure to remove the tourniquet, that’s their doing.

            2. simpleton

              Time is on their side but they are clearly aware, probably thanks to Chinese whispers, that they can’t keep up the pressure as much as they wanted.

              If this affair triggers a global recession like you’ve been writing about, time is no longer on their side. They lose their leverage.

              1. urdsama

                How do they lose their leverage? If the US persists a global recession turns into a global depression.

                Iran is used to strife and sacrifice.

                Is the US?

              2. Curious

                I think China wanted a face saving out before all the infrastructure was blown up which hurts them long term. I doubt they are as worried about the strait being closed to teach the US a lesson if the infrastructure stays intact.

        4. tet vet

          The Paris Peace Talks took 5 years (began 1968 after Tet Offensive and concluded in 1973). Most people believe tht North Viet Nam ended up being the winner. I think the Iranians may have “read the book”.

          1. motorslug

            They took 5 years for one reason alone – Kissinger sabotaged them for political purposes. They ended up signing nearly identical terms after millions of Vietnamese and 50k US soldiers died. (read or see The Trials of Henry Kissinger by Christopher Hitchens)
            Not to mention the CIA’s prolific heroin trading business.

    7. JonnyJames

      No problem, a little inflation. No problem with helium, sulfuric acid, urea fertilizer supplies etc. Steve Keen, Yves Smith, Michael Hudson, Alastair Crooke and many others must not really know much.

      Judging from S&P being up today, and oil prices down, nothing to worry about buy the dip and all that eh

    8. ChrisFromGA

      I’m sensitive to the “anti-hypothesis” here, with the experience of last year’s tariffs perhaps as a cautionary tale.

      Last April I was convinced that Taco’s tariffs were going to lead to shortages by summer 2025. I envisioned angry hordes of shoppers at the Best Buy, fighting over the last flat screen like it was Black Friday circa 2017.

      Of course we know that Taco did chicken out, which mitigated the whole thing to a certain extent. However, I think that I also underestimated the ability of the economy to adjust to the tariffs that did go into effect, and there were a lot.

      Fast forward, we have now had the strait effectively closed for 45 days … every analyst I respect has said that this will lead to actual shortages, not in the US, but in SE Asia, Europe, and maybe Africa. We have an article from Spain saying 3 weeks to no jet fuel in Europe. That came out over the weekend, so let’s all set an alarm on our phones for May 1. It really doesn’t look like we’re gonna get any significant relief until a peace deal is signed, so if our phones go off on May 1 and we don’t read stories about angry Europeans missing canceled flights, then maybe that means it did blow over.

      I am skeptical because the situation is different than the tariffs. With tariffs, goods still flow albeit at higher end prices to consumers. Unless all these oil analysts are wrong, we’re looking at physical shortages for the have-nots (Europe, Africa. SE Asia.) Maybe Yves and Ben Penga or others in those regions can speak to how bad it is right now. There were protests in Ireland over fuel shortages this weekend that are now spilling over into politics:

      https://www.npr.org/2026/04/14/g-s1-117383/fuel-protests-have-irelands-government-facing-possible-no-confidence-vote

      Known unknown – there is a certain amount of physical supply deficit, but Russian oil could be making up some of the difference and the lying liars who lie, lie, lie won’t advertise that because reasons.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Here is another good piece from NPR on the effects in Vietnam and the Philippines:

        https://www.npr.org/2026/03/26/nx-s1-5760763/southeast-asia-is-being-hit-hard-by-irans-cutoff-of-oil-and-gas

        Note that we’re already at or soon to be at the time when reserves are exhausted.

        “Vietnam has 30 to 45 days of reserves, Thailand has about 61 days and Singapore has 20 to 50 days,” says professor Indra Overland, who follows Southeast Asia as head of energy research at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.

        Also note that tourism is already getting hit:

        In Vietnam, the shortage of jet fuel is already being felt, since the country normally sources much of it from China and Thailand—both of which are cutting back on exports to serve their own markets. Vietnam Airlines has announced it’s cancelling dozens of domestic flights beginning in April because of the shortage of fuel. And the country’s tourism industry is already reeling as a result of the war.

        So, no this isn’t going to just “blow over” but these smaller countries with fragile supply chains and/or island nations are going to take the brunt, for now. They can try subsidizing fuel prices but if it goes unobtainium that’s pointless.

      2. Yves Smith Post author

        I never thought or said the tariffs would lead to shortages.

        The near-universal predictions were that they would lead to inflation. They also produced some small business failures.

        The reason they didn’t produce more inflation IMHO was due to the fact that groaf was so concentrated in so few sectors, as in we had a stealth recession in a lot of areas masked by AI related cap ex.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          You’re wiser than me. I really thought last summer was gonna get feral in the US, especially since we have such an emotionally challenged cohort.

          It makes sense to me that the inflation was somewhat mitigated by small business failures and other areas of the economy (housing, REITs) taking the big dirt nap. See my comment on zero visible cranes driving in downtown Atlanta, perhaps with one or two exceptions for condo projects launched pre-2023.

        2. JonnyJames

          And that alone would be the subject of a whole other discussion. How “groaf” and inflation is calculated has been covered before, but many either forgot or don’t know. (for example, Michael Hudson has written and talked about the serious flaws in the NIPA and calculating GDP and all that for years)

          Also, the chaotic flip-flopping and on/off tariffs every five minutes made it unclear as to which tariffs were in place and for how long.

          I don’t see the use in comparing tariffs with the current war situation either

      3. Ben Panga

        Honestly it’s completely normal here beyond higher gas prices. Still chock full of tourists. The domestic flights they cancelled aren’t the main routes.

        Thus far, international flights are a little more expensive but not much. Some flights have been cancelled that route through the middle east.

        Construction still happening like crazy all over the city. All the gas stations are open as normal. Haven’t noticed any shortages in the stores.

        I have no idea about industry or agriculture inputs etc, which one would expect to get shafted soon.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          I should note that “45 days” of reserves doesn’t run out in 45 days unless the entire country is embargoed, with every import of fuel cut off. I doubt that happens, except in maybe some African nation, and even there, high enough prices can encourage some entrepreneur to reroute supplies.

          Construction will be the last thing to stop. Zombie office tower projects with zero economic viability were still going on here in Atlanta until recently. Now the only cranes are for condos or data centers. In fact driving back from the airport today I didn’t see a single crane, which hasn’t happened here since 2009.

        2. Yves Smith Post author

          Hospitals limiting # of drugs given on an Rx

          Fishermen not fishing at all due to diesel costs

          Hotel occupancy here at 20% v. 70% to 80% norm for this time of year.

          But that is not obvious on the street.

          1. simpleton

            Yes but Yves you are in Thailand right? My point is the USA is not feeling the heat, and they are in the driver’s seat.

            Either Iran keeps up the pressure until the US does feel pain, or backs down now just before the whole world economy goes off a cliff.

            In all my comments what I have been trying to say is that it looks increasingly likely the latter is our path forward.

            I actually hope to be proven wrong. We’ll see in a few weeks.

            1. ChrisFromGA

              You can’t just rely on “the rest of the world gets in, right in the kisser, while the US sits pretty and sips lattes.” Multinational corporations generate a lot of revenue from international sales. Riots and protests in Europe kill tourism. Western-friendly Governments get overthrown, and turn to Russia/China.

              I used to think that way, too, but that’s the sort of linear thinking that misleads.

            2. JonnyJames

              From the ivory tower view, that would appear to be the case, however the masses apparently don’t see it quite the same way. It’s getting worse, it’s just a matter of how fast, at least for the vast majority of ‘merkans.

              https://www.axios.com/2026/04/13/american-consumers-economy-polling

              https://www.umass.edu/news/article/bleak-and-worsening-less-1-4-americans-hold-positive-views-us-economy-direction

              https://www.reuters.com/world/us/americans-give-record-low-marks-economy-ominous-sign-republicans-2026-04-10/

          2. Revenant

            Notes from travelling from French Alps to London:

            – Geneva-Paris TGV was full in semi-flexible business class
            – Paris was eye-wateringly expensive. Hotel was dear (3*, in the Marais, no breakfast, €220pn); fresh orange juice in local café was €7 (and not even on the terrace!), an orangina was €5, an ice cream cone on the Champs-Elysées was €7. Taxis seemed cheaper than London, wine still much cheaper – several decent wines by the glass for €6-€8.
            – Paris-London Eurostar was full in semi-flex business class

            In summary, global elite destinations unaffected, film at ten….

            It’s all very August 1914.

    9. Socal Rhino

      Iran holds two major cards, one played and one in reserve. They have shut down transit in the strait, which at this point is likely guaranteed to cause a deep global recession and possibly starvation in some places. The unplayed card is destruction of all oil infrastructure in the gulf as well as desalination plants.

      Oil analysts are saying the global market is down 1 Billion barrels of oil, and getting back to status quo will take 900 days from the time flows again. That was as of the weekend. Every day that hole gets deeper.

      Iran can look at Libya and Syria to see what fate awaits them if they lose. They will fight to the death, literally. Will the US? Judging by Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior I don’t the administration thinks so.

      I don’t think Iran is playing 5D chess but they have planned for this war for decades.

      1. Doggo

        They have a third card between your two, and that is shutting down the Red Sea. It’s still in reserve.

  24. Curious

    It seems to me that now would be the right time for Iran to let all of the stranded 800 ships go through the Strait.

    Either they all get to their destinations in the US is shown to be a paper tiger that can’t stop them. Or the US does stop them and all the problems from than ensue.

    If Iran makes the announcement, I’m sure the markets will react favorably and then the US will have to be the ones to respond with two fairly bad options.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      In theory that sounds like a very good tactic. In practice, I imagine you might have 800 ship captains telling each other “You go first.”

  25. John Merryman

    At what point does it truly go Nova and who gets thrown under the bus first?
    Israel or the rest of the planet.
    It does seem Zionism has placed itself beyond the pale of civil discourse, as it cannot be questioned and therefore debated, but assigns itself the right to take whatever it wants and kill whomever it pleases. Greater Israel and kill all the Amaleks.
    After several thousand years of back and forth, it seems the final dual between tribalism and civilization is occuring.
    Safe to say, Jesus will go down in history as the one true Jewish Messiah.
    The Zionists have their Old Testament Messiah and his name is Bibi Netanyahu and his message is kill all the Amaleks.

  26. Cocomaan

    Was listening to the recent Odd Lots podcast with Ziad Daoud. He said that in his opinion, as a Gulf resident and academic, that the region has been at war since Israel retaliated against the Hamas attacks. It’s been one conflict after another.

    The Pakistan and Indonesian stuff worries me. At a certain point, this becomes a world war. I haven’t looked up the definition but expansion of the conflict is getting us there.

  27. Wukchumni

    Movie Tip:

    Especially under the auspices of yesterday’s divine influence on the President…

    Gabriel Over the White House is a 1933 American pre-Code political fantasy film starring Walter Huston as a genial but politically corrupt U.S. President who has a near-fatal automobile accident and comes under divine influence—specifically that of the archangel Gabriel. Eventually, he takes control of the government, solves the problems of the nation, from unemployment to racketeering, and arranges for worldwide peace, before the angel leaves him, and he dies.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_Over_the_White_House

      1. Daniil Adamov

        He was a big fan of that movie, IIRC. Not sure how much can be extrapolated from that, though I would guess he saw himself as a similar figure to post-accident Hammond.

        1. hk

          Fairly or unfairly, I read a lot of proto-fascist element in both post accident Hammond and in FDR’s conduct, esp during the war. Not someone I’d want to come across in a dark alley, either one.

          1. Daniil Adamov

            I learned about that movie and FDR’s interest in it via a Russian-language history blog many years ago, though I can’t remember what it was now. I do recall the take there was similar to yours: that FDR was aiming for some kind of dictatorship, for the greater good of America and the world of course, and had no compunctions whatsoever about crushing anyone in the way of that. The blogger seemed to sympathise more with Huey Long, whose death (also fairly or unfairly) he blamed at least partly on FDR, who refused to grant his supporter-turned-critic protection despite obvious danger to his life.

  28. Will

    Was that a Baldrick “cunning plan” reference in the Ed Davis speech (@11:34) included in the Janta Ka video? LOL! If Trump is Baldrick then Bibi is Blackadder?

  29. hereweare

    As Iran War Dragged On, Israel Downed Fewer Missiles – and Cluster Missiles Wreaked Havoc – Haaretz – archived
    One in every four Iranian missiles fired at Israel in the last week of the 40-day war penetrated Israel’s air-defense systems, reflecting a trend: As the war progressed, the number of missiles that got through and caused damage rose, a Haaretz analysis shows.
    The vast majority of the missiles that penetrated were the cluster variant, for which Israel failed to find a solution, even though air defense had encountered them in the 12-day war last June.
    …
    Military sources say that, of the 650 or so missiles fired in the recent campaign, dozens fell in open areas and did not need to be shot down. The sources deny that Israel suffered a shortage of interceptors; as they put it, due to the duration of the war, the army had to manage impact risks against maintaining the interceptor stockpile.

  30. jefemt

    I continue to be amazed out any thinking that first doesn’t start with Israel. It’s a big blind spot to leave them out of any speculative calculus.

    Can’t recall which one of the EXCELLNT tid bits it was in here— thank you, NC- Yves, just watching MSM I want to scream at their lack of rigor or their outright lack of candor- Fourth Estate my ass… but I digress…

    Anyway, one of the tibits prompted me to the posiible goal of USrael being a broader Iran-Iraq like bloodfest.. “… I can almost hear Miller and Nuttingyahoo saying, “…let the muzzie spill their own Sectarian blood. ”

    My oh my but what an eff’d up animal is the Human. Starting with me…

  31. Tom Stone

    Hoo boy, nice explanation of game theory.
    Psychology has a great deal to do with the choice made, when dealing with a grandiose narcissist experiencing cognitive decline, which is often expressed as what seems an existential need to dominate, the most likely outcome is a catastrophe.
    It’s gonna be lit, as Mr Boxman puts it.

    1. ScotsBloke

      I don’t claim that game theory is the answer. I just see it as another lens to try to understand where this conflict might go and how it might be resolved.
      You are entirely correct that psychology and the behavioural side is important. One of the branches of finance I was involved in was behavioural finance and all the biases, heuristics, and so forth involved in decision-making.
      One of the things that still amazes me about the Usrael side is the apparent lack of critical thinking and careful consideration of their actions. It suggests, as per much commentary, emotion rules.

      1. Wukchumni

        In the Marandi video, during ‘negotiations’ in Pakistan, our side kept fielding phone calls, as to what to do?

        Not really confidence building, that.

  32. ScotsBloke

    Yes, that was my alternative (I do mention the Prisoners’ Dilemma in my original post. Tit-for-tat relates to an iterated version of the Prisoners’ Dilemma game where the players can punish each other. So, this also works and has some advantages compared to the chicken game. I choose the latter because of where we are in the Ramadan War.
    But you are right.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Per Timmy above, Bloomberg is flogging based on a SINGLE source that who supposedly has the inside skinny inTehran (as in a hotel clerk?) that talks might be on.

      As if

      1. That is actually going to happen

      2. That they might lead to a deal (not!!)

      3. That any deal would get done before the wheels come off the global economy.

      But I have to tell you, a simply astonishing number of people believe the war has to end soon because the consequences to them would be too terrible and they can’t even imagine say losing all their savings and home. My maternal grandparents has their money in three banks before the Depression. In the end, they got back three cents on the dollar and lost their home

      And they were way better off than most. Only one child, so few mouths to feed. Husband worked as the manager of an amusement park (he knew how to maintain the equipment0 and amusement parks did well then as cheap entertainment, so he has steady employment.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Clown world continues until it doesn’t. Most have gotten comfortable with the clownery.

      2. motorslug

        The revolution in the US will happen when TikTok, FB, IG, Snapchat and Twitter go dark.
        USians will tolerate anything except interference in their addictions.

      3. Lefty Godot

        Yves, what do you think of the David Rogers Webb thesis “The Great Taking” that says there will be a controlled collapse of the economy that allows the top people to seize everyone’s bank deposits and stocks using laws that have been stealthily put in place over the last couple of decades? Curiously no mention of it on Wikipedia. I can’t quite make out how realistic the idea is. Obviously even worse than just killing Social Security and ending Medicare/Medicaid, which is what I was always assuming would happen, likely sooner than later, due to an engineered “budget crisis” or “national debt” or other excuse.

    2. NotTimothyGeithner

      The question is what economic activity will get curtailed if there was a prolonged, immediate shortage of 5% from the global market, so many operations are going to sit out until things are more settled. 20% runs through Hormuz. Anyone who might have waited it out is probably “canceling” orders or waiting until the last second, so a good deal of oil is likely not selling the way it would have for a smaller disruption.

  34. Ann

    Xi Says World Order ‘Crumbling Into Disarray’ as War Takes Toll

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-14/china-s-xi-urges-closer-spain-ties-to-counter-global-disarray

    IMF downgrades global growth outlook due to Iran war

    https://www.reuters.com/world/imf-world-bank-meetings-global-growth-downgrade-expected-iran-war-hits-prices-2026-04-14/

    Syringe reuse at Pakistan hospital infects 331 children with HIV

    https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/syringe-reuse-at-pakistan-hospital-infects-331-children-with-hiv-probe-reveals-1.500506424

    Efforts underway for second round of US-Iran talks as ships reported transiting Strait of Hormuz

    https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-lebanon-israel-talks-hormuz-14-april-2026-24655d40b2d968c39949e5ec2e01535b

    No discussions between Qatar and Iran over payment of funds to stop Iranian attacks, Qatari official says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/no-discussions-between-qatar-iran-over-payment-funds-stop-iranian-attacks-qatari-2026-04-14/

    Iran tries to cosy up to Europe to increase pressure on US

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/14/iran-cosy-up-europe-increase-pressure-us

    US military seeks Philippines site to store millions of gallons of fuel

    https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2026-04-13/american-fuel-depot-philippines-21359984.html

    Vance accuses Iran of ‘economic terrorism’ and says ‘two can play at that game’

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-04-14/vance-accuses-iran-of-economic-terrorism-and-says-two-can-play-at-that-game

    1. nippersmom

      The US accusing anyone else of “economic terrorism” is pretty rich, especially someone from the Trump “I never met a tariff I didn’t like” Administration.

      1. TheMog

        … and after Bessent mentioned that the Fed attempted (and IIRC succeeded) in tanking Iran’s currency.

        At least if my memory doesn’t fail me.

  35. Mikel

    “The Mosaic Doctrine saved the regime. It may also have made the regime incapable of making peace. Decentralized command structures are designed to survive attacks. They are not designed to produce coherent diplomatic commitments. The same architecture that prevented collapse after Khamenei’s death now prevents any single Iranian official from delivering what the United States demands. The 31 provincial commands can fight independently. They cannot negotiate collectively. And no ceasefire, no peace deal, no “affirmative commitment” can be binding when the institution that would have to honor it publicly accuses the man who would sign it of shaking hands with murderers.”

    This point is also made over and over again in many House of Saud articles.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Ah, regime change … funny how that was Taco’s self-stated “number one goal” of the war as in the regime was finished, finito, stick a fork in ’em … until it wasn’t.

      1. Samuel Conner

        Haha, … regime change. We may have changed the regime, alright, ,,, into something that is even less cooperative than it previously was.

    2. Socal Rhino

      I disagree. The delegation is tactical not strategic.

      More accurate to point out that Trump can’t make peace because Bibi and Adelson get votes.

      The “no one is in charge” is US propaganda in my opinion. It is repeated a lot in the media. We can’t understand their government structure they say, although Wikipedia has a pretty clear description. If the US believed that they would not have placed such an emphasis on killing the sitting supreme leader.

  36. vidimi

    Interesting that Pr Marandi explained the decision to talk with the US as a PR necessity to counter US propaganda. That’s a war Iran can never hope to win.
    Alon Mizrahi’s take is not far from my own that the ceasefire was akin to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Pakistan sending troops to Saudi is a game changer. We may end up seeing the entire Sunni world turn against the Shia.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      That is a straw man. You need to stop these biased readings.

      If Iran cared about PR they would not be bombing the shit out of neighbors or keeping the chokehold of the Strait on

      You are also implying that merely meeting someone is a concession. Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues you should always and ever take meetings.

      1. vidimi

        It’s what Pr Marandi explains starting at around 9 minutes in the embedded talk with Lottaz and gets more into it at 10 minutes

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          You absolutely straw manned Marandi and that section proves your bias in interpretation.

          He said there was very little optimism on the Iran side but maybe there could have been a extension of the ceasefire.

          He THEN SAYS, “with the benefit of hindsight”

          There is also a big difference between looking as if you are continuing to fight out of cussedness or vindictiveness versus acting in a responsible manner. I do not agree at all with your attempts to smear Iran as naive. Iran is part of an international community even if nearly everyone in it ex Syria, North Korea, Libya, and now more recently Russia and China, have treated it badly. They are aware that their defensive action in this US/Israel instigated war could well produce a global depression. Marandi said that would be the result in 2024! They feel a duty to show that they are exercising this tremendous power responsibly. Your calling this PR is a cheap denigration.

          Honestly, the more you write, the more I see your reading as rank bigotry or what is more politely called Orientalism. You seem determined to depict the Iranians as chumps when they are winning a war against the world’s #1 military power close to singlehandedly. You apply outrageous standards to Iran, that anything short of your idea of perfection is a fail.

          In a bit of synchronicity, Jeffrey Sachs on a new Glenn Diesen talk, discuses a related issue: that the Iranians are polite, and the US (and it appears you as well) mistake this for weakness. He points out if they were going to accede to US demands, they would have done so already.

          1. vidimi

            I’m very sorry about sounding bigoted and orientalist as that is absolutely not my intent. I put Iran under greater scrutiny for the same reason a football fan puts his team under greater scrutiny. I am emotionally invested in the resistance winning and I saw the talks as an error: Iran had battlefield momentum, which they relinquished to allow their bad faith enemy to regroup.

            I didn’t think I was strawmanning Marandi so apologies for that as well

            1. Yves Smith Post author

              OK, now I understand how I misread your doggedness. I apologize.

              We had an otherwise very very smart and well informed reader who had an extreme black and white view on the Ukraine war, that Putin not immediately marching to the Poland border and firing missiles on Germany and even lobbing nuclear missiles meant Putin was a traitor. I kid you not.

              But in war, it is more appealing to seek or hope for hard line position and actions. Strategic patience and having to deal with complex internal and external constituencies produces a need to make tradeoffs, even if the party involved is deeply committed to battlefield operations.

              I understand Iran’s past resistance to ceasefires. However, they just scored a huge win in destroying the most air assets the US has ever lost in one encounter since the war in Vietnam in the failed raid near Isfahan.

              I have to imagine that they saw the same list that we publicized of acute weapons depletion of US and Israel, not just defensive weapons but offensive. US naval craft are so low on them that they have been husbanding their firing. The arms makers are not producing remotely fast enough to change the depletion picture in less than many years. So reloading will at most create a false (but Trump-pleasing) illusion of potency. Similarly, taking a lot of Viagra does not turn old men into Italian stallions.

              In addition, a delay greatly intensifies the underlying economic pressure. Team Trump really seems to believe as long as they can keep investors in the pool for another week or two, that’s a win. It’s the reverse. The crisis will be worse when it hits.

              Iran also presumably prefers not to destroy the oil infrastructure in the Gulf states and produce a permanent reduction in living standards across the globe. Again, delay harms them via a mechanism other than bombs.

              1. vidimi

                Thank you for your patience. I can be quite testing, but unlike the US, it’s in good faith.

                I have my quibbles with the Russian prosecution of the war in Ukraine, but it has more to do with meat-grindind Ukraine’s men, many of whom were kidnapped unwillingly from the streets. I don’t know what Russia could do to end the war quickly – I suspect marching on Poland could do it – but the outcome wouldn’t be something Russia would want.

    2. ilsm

      Pakistan forces in KSA do bolster the monarchy, put spine in KSA army and are deployable across the causeway to Bahrain where the restive Shi’a majority may need trampling.

      I doubt they are there to cross the gulf.

  37. Yves Smith Post author

    Iran is not saying the talk about new negotiations is false but fresh official statements are mighty hostile:

    If you take a normal interpersonal view, there is no reason to return given the US high handed posture until something starts to break on the US side. Unless they hew to the Putin view, that playing along is a cost-free exercise since you won’t give anything up at the negotiating table (ex here, assassination risk, so that does change considerations a bit). Or see other geopolitical issues, like needing to placate China.

    I assume there is some dark matter here, as in they are not saying no officially but arguing with China (and maybe Pakistan). There is no point until there is a US attitude change, as in some daylight between them and Isreal

    1. JohnH

      The Iranians have surely been watching the Russian experience with Trump. If I recall correctly Trump agreed to return diplomatic properties to Russia and restore a flight or two to Moscow. Never happened. Trump couldn’t even make good o,n the simplest of confidence building measures, let alone sincerely try to negotiate an agreement, except with friends of USA.

      What Russia did was to appear to be ready to negotiate, which at most results in a few positive PR points globally. Nothing ventured, nothing gained (as long as too much time and effort are invested in the extremely unlikely.)

      1. nyleta

        The trouble is if Iran sits quiet here for any appreciable amount of time Lebanon is gone. All the countries anxious for a quiet life are lining up in support of the faux negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. The only thing that can save Hezbollah is Iranian missiles on the back of the Israeli army.

        US started putting resource into Lebanon as soon as Mr Trump was elected this time and the fix is in. Even the brave hearts at Hezbollah will wilt if Iran does nothing for a couple of months. April 21 is the end of the ceasefire and it will be interesting to see if the Abraham Lincoln moves back from where it is now just 200 km off the straight. At the moment it is daring Iran to sink it and if it is let stay there after the 21 st it means something.

        1. hamstak

          Add to the Lincoln the G.H.W. Bush which is currently in the vicinity of the southern tip of Africa. It left Norfolk two weeks ago and it appears like it will be in the wrestling arena in about a week — which puts us at April 21.

        2. ArvidMartensen

          Having Lebanon as a long term US stronghold has been the US plan for at least a decade.

          To construct a building of this magnitude has taken a lot of planning – funding, designing, contractor hire, materials sourcing, fitting out, technology fitout etc)
          https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/12/middleeast/massive-us-embassy-middle-east-mime-intl

          That is a building that Iran should be concerned with. It must have state of the art everything

          Although to us it looks like random and not well-thought out US decisions in the Middle East, I think the US has a chess game going, but we just can’t see the board.

          For example, a recent piece that I can’t reference now talks about how a lot of US LNG export infrastructure is coming on line soon. And wouldn’t you know it, just as access to Middle East LNG disappears. What a coincidence.

    2. Alan Sutton

      RE: Placating China

      I suppose we all know that China is helping Iran with supplies, buying its oil, maybe sending missiles, air defence systems? I don’t know. Probably satellite info as well.

      But for us to infer that Iran has to “placate” China seems excessive if they are helping them already.

      If China is concerned enough to pressure Iran to negotiate surely they might feel it is time to escort their tankers with their own navy instead?

      I don’t know how feasible this would be, I am not an expert. And it would certainly raise the temperature. But elsewhere here someone said the Chinese Navy is already exercising in the Indian Ocean.

      That can’t just be for “exercise” surely?

  38. XXYY

    …the steps the Iranian side took to prevent assassination [like turning] over all their cell phones and electronic devices, which traveled separately.

    As surveillance becomes more and more based on electronic detection and tracking of personal electronics, I’m hopeful that the targets of such surveillance are making this work in their favor. I imagine that surveillance agencies are increasingly relying on simple remote tracking through the phone system network, which you can do sitting at your desk and drinking coffee, rather than the old school techniques of actually putting a team together to follow the subject in the field through rain, snow, and heat, which is probably becoming a lost art.

    Leaving your personal electronics at home, or putting them on a bus to Las Vegas, makes it simple to establish a false trail and/or an alibi if needed.

    Hopefully, people are starting to use the fact that we are all carrying around Orwellian remote tracking devices to work in their favor.

    1. vidimi

      in this case, Iranian planes would also have to have flown with their transponders off but even then the Israelis might have been able to track their movement.

  39. MarkinSF

    Pakistan sending forces to Saudi Arabia; Indonesia troops signing up for a ground invasion? If true these sound like potentially game changing developments. And the biggest development revealed in this post. Am I missing anything?

    1. jsn

      Indonesia has 400K active, 400K reserves and just signed up for joint exercises with US.

      This is very, very far from what Mizrahi implies.

      Some dissension between Sunni & Shiite, yes, ground force in Iran, exceptionally unlikely. SA is more likely to need the Pakistanis to protect it from Israel and its own population.

    2. alrhundi

      It seems like the Indonesian deal is more about a blanket approval for US military overflight?

    3. Lefty Godot

      Wouldn’t it be easier for Indonesia to just invade Australia if they were in the mood to go on an invasion spree?

  40. KD

    so the Mosaic structure impeding negotiations means what looks like a bug is indeed a feature.

    Perhaps, or perhaps it was intended as a deterrent so that no one with a brain would be stupid enough to try to kill off Iran’s leadership as the result wouldn’t be a decapitation, it would be killing the only off switch for the violent response which would follow. Iran just wasn’t prepared for USreal’s 4-dementia chess game.

    1. Jonathan Holland Becnel

      HAH

      PUNY IRANIANS WILL NEVER BEAT THE AMERICANS AND ISRAELIS AT 5-DEMENTIA CHESS ♟️

      LOSERS

      😏

    1. Safety First

      Technically, yes, ships are leaving Iranian ports and passing the Strait. The problem is that once they pass the Strait and get to somewhere about parallel to the eastern coastline of the UAE, that’s where the US blockade stops them and tells them to turn back. Specifically, CENTCOM has mentioned they’d turned back six ships in 24 hours (without boarding or firing on any), including the Elpis mentioned in the PressTV article you linked to.

      Basically we are waiting for someone, preferably under a Chinese flag, to try and actually run past this point, due south-south-east of the exit of the Strait, to see if the blockade is a thing or not.

  42. Socal Rhino

    Doug Macgregor suggesting to keep an eye on Ireland to get an early read on European supply chain breakdown, due to their small size. He and Danny Davis just reviewed a report of imminent private sector fuel rationing.

    He sees the world moving from abundance to scarcity.

      1. Socal Rhino

        I see France is discussing price caps. Would be kicking demand destruction down the road and hastening shortages, if situation isn’t resolved soon.

  43. Wukchumni

    Just about a year ago
    I set out on the 12-day-war road
    Seekin’ to spread a little of the Adelson fortune
    Lookin’ to bomb nuclear facilities, be bold
    Things got bad and things got worse
    I guess you will know the tune
    Oh Lord, stuck in Iran again

    Rode in on the assassinations
    I’ll be crawling’ out if I go
    I was just passin’ through
    Might take seven months or more
    Ran out of time and armaments
    Looks like nobody cares about me, my friends
    Oh Lord, I’m stuck in Iran again

    The man from the Holy Land
    Said I was on my way
    Somewhere I lost connections
    I ran out of delays to play
    I came into Torah! Torah! Torah!, to make my schvitzkrieg stand
    Looks like my plans fell through
    Oh Lord, stuck in Iran again

    If I only had a dollar
    For ev’ry lie I’ve said
    Ev’ry time I’ve had to play like I prayed
    While I sat there power drunk
    You know, I’d catch the next train of thought
    Back to where I live
    Oh Lord, I’m stuck in Iran again
    Oh Lord, I’m stuck in Iran again

    Lodi, by CCR

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpozyJk-ttc&list=RDYpozyJk-ttc

  44. Ann

    Trump’s Extreme Use of Military Is Stirring a Crisis of Conscience Among Troops

    https://truthout.org/articles/trumps-extreme-use-of-military-is-stirring-a-crisis-of-conscience-among-troops/

    Benjamin Netanyahu presented Iran attack plan to former presidents, John Kerry claims

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892647

    Trump turns against ‘unacceptable’ Meloni – U.S. president says he was “wrong” about the Italian leader after she defended the pope

    https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-turns-against-unacceptable-meloni-says-he-was-wrong-about-her/

    Trump’s son Eric to join father’s state visit to China

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-son-eric-join-fathers-state-visit-china-2026-04-14/

    ‘A Constitutional Emergency’: Psychiatric Experts Say Congress Must Confront Mentally Unstable Trump; “We recognize the gravity of what we are asking. We ask it because the gravity of the situation demands it.”

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/psychiatrists-donald-trump

    “Someone should probably tell the rich that workers banding together to present formal address of grievances is the alternative we worked out a long time ago to breaking down the factory owner’s front door and beating him to death in front of his family. I feel like they forgot.”

    Anonymous Redditor

    Trump criticizes UK for refusing to open North Sea oil production

    https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/trump-criticizes-uk-for-refusing-to-open-north-sea-oil-production-93CH-4613266

    Russia’s Rosatom says only 20 staff remain at Iran’s Bushehr plant

    https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604148569

    1. chris

      Wow. That Jerusalem Post article… I can believe that Bibi has been selling this concept since 9/11/2001. I have a hard time believing that list of Presidents was capable of resisting its allure.

  45. Kouros

    In one of his last interviews John Helmer stated that he expects for 100 to 200 years worth of future wars. Lavrov, in the past was looking at 20-30 years of instability and turbulence.

    And Israel wants to be the hegemon in West Asia. The trump card they have (no pun intended) in my opinion is the stupidity and cowardice of Arab and Sunni leadership in the area. The sheiks definitely have as their first goal the destruction of any republican polity around (military leadership a la mameluke Egypt or Pakistan is acceptable, especially since they are stressed economically and easily bribable).
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/13/benjamin-netanyahu-middle-east-greater-israel Article by Daniel Levy

    This article is interesting and the ideas have been presented before. I find as a major gap in all such articles the blindness in adressing the absence of adequate skilled force in the US, the reduction of the industrial base to do the proposed things, and the lack of desire in the business comunity in the US to invest to recreate a large and strong labour force, as in the 60s and 70s, capable to channel political power in the end to more effectively oppose the business class:

    https://ctindale.substack.com/p/the-return-of-matter-western-democracies

    How to Read China’s Real Stance on Iran, A Primer
    https://thechinaacademy.org/voices-inside-china%EF%BC%9A-a-summary-of-official-stances-and-other-perspectives-on-the-iran-war/

    But there seems to be a blindness here:

    “Geopolitically, Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance are engaged in a struggle for dominance over the Middle East order. Iran is a Middle Eastern power with strong national pride and self-esteem. Its foreign policy strongly opposes U.S. hegemony in the Middle East and Israeli aggression against the Islamic world. To counter the U.S. and Israel, Iran has actively built a sphere of influence using political issues and religious identity, forming a ‘Shiite Crescent’ under its leadership—stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean—composed primarily of regional anti-U.S. and anti-Israel organizations, challenging U.S. and Israeli hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East.”

    I don’t think that for Iran or its allies the issue is “dominance”. More like they want to be left be and live their lives, normally. It is the US/Israel that want to dominate.

    China never presents its development as wanting to dominate everyone around, it is just trying to improve and make safe the life of its citizens. Same as Iran. As Alistair Crooke started saying for some days now. Iran wants to break out of the cage the US put it in 1979. That is not looking for dominance.

  46. johnnyme

    Power Crisis Deepens: Govt imposes daily peak-hour outages to avert massive tariff surge

    ISLAMABAD: Facing mounting fuel constraints, the government on Tuesday announced over two hours of daily power outages during peak evening hours in a bid to prevent a steep rise in electricity tariffs.

    According to a statement issued by the Power Division, electricity supply will be suspended for approximately 2.25 hours each day between 5:00pm and 1:00am. The move, officials said, is designed to curb reliance on costly fuel sources and shield consumers from significant price hikes.

    The decision follows the disruption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies after Qatar—Pakistan’s primary LNG provider—declared force majeure amid attacks on its gas infrastructure linked to the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran. Pakistan imports up to 1,000 mmcfd of LNG under long-term agreements with Qatar.

  47. Anthony Martin

    Is the Vatican next in line for conquest? At this point in time, Trump’s only strategy is to’dodge, deflect, delay, & distract’ in the hopes that Iran will makes a ‘blunder’. Any escalation means higher inflation and higher gas prices which constitute he only ‘moral’ compass’ which the US population possesses. In the meanwhile, Israel will be the ‘hot spot’. Sooner or later, all those Marines in the Arabian Sea will be sick of their sea voyage, then what?

  48. Glen

    Bunker fuel shortages:

    Ocean carriers impose emergency fuel surcharges as bunker costs surge
    https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/031026-ocean-carriers-impose-emergency-fuel-surcharges-as-bunker-costs-surge

    Jet fuel shortages:

    Ticking Clock: Airlines Warn Jet Fuel Could Run Dry Within Weeks
    https://simpleflying.com/airline-jet-fuel-shortage-running-dry-warning-weeks/

    Diesel fuel shortages:

    Diesel Crisis Threatens To Push Up Prices For Just About Everything
    https://www.investopedia.com/diesel-prices-could-stoke-prices-for-just-about-everything-11928409

    Trumpflation is making everything more expensive.

    1. ThirtyOne

      Trumpflation is making everything more expensive

      I’m thinking about some “Zionism did this” stickers for the gas pumps…

      1. Acacia

        Sticker of Netanyahu and Trump pointing at each other, smirking.

        Both in unison: “I did this.”

  51. johnnyme

    Iranian media claims U.S.-made network equipment stopped working during attack

    TEHRAN, April 14 (Xinhua) — Fars News Agency reported Tuesday that during a U.S. attack on Iran’s central Isfahan Province, a “significant” amount of U.S.-made communications equipment in the country suddenly stopped working.

    Citing field observations, the report said the equipment included products made by Cisco, Juniper Networks and Fortinet. It said the devices failed at the same time as the attack.

    The report described the timing as “suspicious” and said Iran had no international internet access at the time, with global gateways blocked or unreachable.

    Fars said the simultaneous failures showed signs of “deep-seated sabotage” embedded in the equipment. It quoted cybersecurity sources as saying Iran’s cyber laboratories would soon release technical details and evidence of “coordination” between the manufacturers and U.S. and Israeli “enemies.”

    2. ChrisRUEcon

      TBH I’m surprised the vendor in question is not embargo’d from selling to Iran. This could mean that it’s older equipment with known and ostensibly unpatched vulnerabilities.

  52. Jason Boxman

    We huffing so much glue

    Oil extends declines as possible U.S.-Iran talks raise hopes for Mideast peace deal (CNBC)

    The renewed push for talks comes after earlier reports that talks aimed at resolving the Middle East conflict could resume ahead of the expiry of a fragile two-week ceasefire.

    “Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy,” the IEA said in a report published Tuesday.

    1. chris

      Yes, the Prophet of Al Mari Lagi, who suspiciously looks like Trump when Trump looks in a mirror, has decided that the talks aren’t necessary even though Iran is begging for them and we would like them to continue too, but don’t need them to, so that things are going great! Everyone pass go and pay 200 $ for a tank of gas…

      1. bob

        He is truly one of the worst people in a group of very bad people. The ways he and his are minting money out of fraud and insider trading are changing the wealth distributions for decades.

  54. Ann

    I took the afternoon off and went into town and bought a Nissan Leaf EV. I won’t get it for 8 weeks because all EVs in town are being snapped up at a never-before-seen rate. 50,000 CAD with two rebates, one for 7,000 and one for 5,000. I count myself lucky. Red. Bright red with a black roof.

    US destroyer interdicts two oil tankers attempting to leave Iran, official says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-destroyer-interdicts-two-oil-tankers-attempting-leave-iran-official-says-2026-04-14/

    Sanctioned tanker turns back to Strait of Hormuz, day after Gulf exit

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sanctioned-tanker-turns-back-strait-hormuz-day-after-gulf-exit-2026-04-15/

    CNN: China to Supply Iran With Man-Portable Air Defense Systems

    https://militarnyi.com/en/news/cnn-china-to-supply-iran-with-manpads/

    China says it will resume some ties with Taiwan after visit by opposition leader

    https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-policies-cheng-liwun-visit-xi-c72dd46ae64ee8e55c9df14cd56d5971

    In parliament, Polish MP calls Israel ‘new Third Reich,’ waves Israeli flag with swastika

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-parliament-polish-mp-calls-israel-new-third-reich-waves-israeli-flag-with-swastika/

    In call with Trump, PM Modi stresses on keeping Strait of Hormuz ‘open and secure’

    https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/in-call-with-trump-pm-modi-stresses-on-keeping-strait-of-hormuz-open-and-secure-1.500506850

    Ukraine to produce drones in Norway, Oslo says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-produce-drones-norway-oslo-says-2026-04-14/

    House Dems unveil bill to examine removing Trump using 25th Amendment

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-dems-unveil-bill-examine-removing-trump-using-25th-amendment

    Trump administration threatens to take over 3 public golf courses in D.C.

    https://www.npr.org/2026/04/13/nx-s1-5759661/trump-administration-threatens-to-take-over-3-public-golf-courses-in-dc

  55. Acacia

    Re: Supply chain shutdowns in Japan

    The largest suppliers for residential construction and renovation — e.g. LIXIL, TOTO, Panasonic — will no longer provide delivery dates.

    This is no longer just an issue with a few manufacturers;
    the impact is spreading across the entire residential equipment sector.

    https://x.com/Yamamoto__M/status/2043894586951774717

Comments are closed.