“Russia is not going to leave the Western Hemisphere, no matter what they say in Washington.”
Last Thursday (April 9), Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov paid an official visit to Cuba where he met with the Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel. The visit came ten days after the Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodki broke the United States’ de facto oil blockade of Cuba, providing the island with 100,000 tons — roughly two weeks’ worth — of much needed crude oil.
“It is the first and only fuel we have received in four months, and that has huge importance for us,” Diaz-Canel said. In response, Ryabkov, quoted by TASS, pledged that Moscow’s help for Cuba would go beyond the large shipload of oil it had already sent to the island.
I am certain that the events of recent weeks in our relations will have us moving forward to find solutions to the toughest problems … emerging from the illegal and absolutely unacceptable blockade of the island by the US.
Almost immediately after the arrival of the Kolodki on March 30, Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev said Moscow was already preparing a second shipment of fuel for its long-standing Caribbean ally. The ship tracking site Tanker Trackers reported on Friday that a ship carrying 40 million litres of diesel, equivalent to 251,000 barrels, appears to be heading Cuba’s way.
The question is whether or not the Trump administration will be willing to let a one-off shipment of Russian oil to Cuba turn into a regular stream of Russian oil and gas for the energy-starved island that almost seven decades’ worth of US governments have been trying to regime change? And if not, what is it prepared to do to stop it?
No doubt Marco Rubio will have something to say on the matter. A few months ago, he said on Meet the Press, specifically in reference to US control of Venezuelan oil: “we’re not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors and rivals of the United States.”
SEC RUBIO: 🇺🇸🇻🇪🇨🇳 We don't need Venezuela's oil. We have plenty of oil in the United States.
What we're not going to allow is for the oil industry in Venezuela to be controlled by adversaries of the United States.
You have to understand, why does China need their oil? Why… pic.twitter.com/BEZ1LsN0Am
— Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial (@TruthTrumpPost) April 13, 2026
That, howeer, was before the Trump administration decided to bog US forces down in an “epic” quagmire of its own making — with a little helping hand from Tel Aviv, of course — in West Asia. Meanwhile, Russia-Cuban relations appear to be going from strength to strength.
“Russia is not going to leave the Western Hemisphere; no matter what they say in Washington, they are obsessed with the idea of ousting Russia, as well as China, from this region,” Ryabkov said. He also noted that Russia’s relations with Cuba are of a “special nature.”
“Both politically and emotionally, Cuba means a lot to the people of Russia. For us, Cubans are brothers,” the diplomat stressed. “And we cannot just betray Cuba, this is completely out of the question, we cannot leave it to the mercy of fate”.
“That would be fundamentally contrary to what is at the heart of our brotherhood and our friendship,” he said.
Ryabkov discussed this friendship in depth in an interview with TASS prior to his departure: “the solidarity that Cuba shows towards our compatriots is unprecedented, since there is no measure that can quantify the value of those who organised and supported for decades a large-scale rehabilitation program for the victims of the Chernobyl disaster.”
All this, despite all the difficulties that Cuba suffered with the collapse of the USSR, Ryabkov said. Now, Cuba is going through arguably even harder times, with a declining US hegemon determined to strangle it into submission. But it is apparently not alone.
According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Russian and Cuban delegates “engaged in a thorough exchange on pressing bilateral, regional, and international matters during the contacts conducted in the spirit of Russian-Cuban allied relations and strategic partnership.”
One of the main outcomes from these negotiations was a deal struck that will seemingly grant Russian companies significant influence over industrial operations in Cuba. From Caracas-based TeleSur’s article, “Cuba and Russia Strengthen Economic Cooperation” (machine translated):
As part of the Cuban strategy to boost the economy, Russian companies were authorized to manage industrial facilities on the island, a measure aimed at mitigating the effects of the internal crisis.
The decision was made at the XXIII Russian-Cuban Intergovernmental Commission, held on April 1 in St. Petersburg, where it was agreed to promote joint projects that strengthen Cuba’s productive capacity.
The Russian Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Roman Chekushev, stressed that this initiative seeks to increase Cuba’s attractiveness as an investment destination, opening new opportunities for business cooperation.
In other words, the Trump administration’s energy strangulation of Cuba may finally be achieving one of its main goals: the opening up of Cuba to overseas private businesses… from Russia!
Unfortunately, I have not been able to find much in the way of information about this new arrangement besides a couple of articles on a recent interview Chekushev gave to RIA Novosti (machine translation). The first is a Russian-language article by RBC Radio, a prominent Russia business radio station (machine translation):
“Not so long ago, at an intergovernmental commission, we talked with Cuban partners that Russian companies would be allowed to manage industrial production in the republic,” [Chekushev] said.
Chekushov pointed out that this agreement will be of interest to Russian business in considering Cuba as a “point of application” for its investments.
In early April, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia would continue to provide assistance to Cuba, which is considered by Moscow as its closest partner in the Caribbean.
He noted that against the backdrop of an acute energy crisis and the consequences of the American blockade, the support provided by Russia is now especially in demand.
The Moscow Times also covered the same interview, adding a few additional titbits:
Cuba will allow Russian companies to manage industrial production on the Communist island as its energy crisis continues under a U.S. embargo, a senior Russian official said Friday.
“We discussed with our Cuban partners that Russian companies would be granted access to the management of industrial enterprises in the republic,” Deputy Industry Minister Roman Chekushov told the state-run RIA Novosti news agency.
The Cuban state company Tecnomatica had expressed interest in Russian LTE communication systems, the ministry was reported to have announced last fall.
The assembly of Russian vehicles in Cuba was suspended last month — just a year after launching — due to power outages, is also expected to resume once energy supplies normalize, Chekushov said Thursday…
“At the present moment, Russia is 100% in solidarity with Cuba; despite the complexity the country is going through, we are by your side, said the deputy foreign minister,” the Cuban president’s office wrote on X on Thursday.
The agreement, unsurprisingly, appears to be the result of months of negotiations between senior Russian and Cuban government officials that preceded the Trump administration’s de facto energy blockade of Cuba. An article by TASS in late November hints at the intended scale of collaboration between the two parties (again, machine translated):
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Roman Chekushov, as part of a working trip to Cuba, held a number of bilateral meetings, at which promising areas of cooperation between the two countries in the civil aircraft and automotive industry, pharmaceuticals and heavy engineering were discussed.
Chekushov held meetings with Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment of Cuba Oscar Perez-Oliva Fraga and Minister of Industry of Cuba Eloy Alvarez.
“Within the framework of Roman Chekushov’s meetings with Oscar Perez-Oliva and Eloy Alvarez, promising areas of industrial and trade cooperation were touched upon. Among them are heavy engineering, automotive, civil aircraft construction, and the pharmaceutical industry. We are talking not only about the supply of finished products, but also about comprehensive cooperation, which provides for the creation of assembly plants, personnel training, service, building long-term logistics chains,” the report says.
Russian competencies are also in demand in power engineering, digital technologies, and artificial intelligence. Following the talks, the parties agreed to accelerate work on the project for the modernization of the Antillana de Acero metallurgical plant for its completion by the end of 2026, as well as on regular contacts at the ministerial level.
Despite the US’ de facto energy blockade of Cuba and its ongoing regime change operation against the island’s communist government, Russia is still apparently committed to these cooperation plans. Cuba’s economy, meanwhile, slides closer to the abyss as the US’ energy embargo and broader sanctions continue to bite, and needs all the help it can get.
As we noted in a February 24 post, Cuba, unlike Venezuela, is a BRICS associate partner (Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva didn’t dare block its membership application, like he did Venezuela’s). This fact has more than symbolic import. As the Cuban commentator El Necio noted, if Cuba was hung out to dry, the message to the Global South would be that BRICS membership counts for little, if anything, in the face of an increasingly assertive US empire.
We also noted that Moscow could spare a tanker or two, though it would risk inflaming tensions with the US just as the two countries are locked in negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict. Those negotiations, however, appear to be going nowhere fast.
Plus, Moscow is already on the receiving end of just about every US, EU and UK sanction imaginable — though the Trump administration has suspended many sanctions on Russian oil and gas in a desperate attempt to keep the oil and gas flowing. So, why worry about the threat of a few additional US tariffs, because for the moment that is the entire basis of the US’ de facto oil embargo on Cuba?
China has also proven itself to be strongly resistant to US sanctions, mainly because it is able to inflict as much, if not more, economic harm on the US, such as by stopping all sales of rare earth minerals. Like Russia and Mexico, Beijing has lent Cuba a helping help in recent months by, among other things, offering equipment and financing for renewable energy projects.
In January, Chinese leader Xi Jinping approved an emergency aid package for Cuba that included a donation of 60,000 tonnes of rice and $80 million to purchase electrical equipment. China’s dominance and expertise in renewable energy, along with offers of equipment and financing, could be crucial for rebuilding Cuba’s creaking power grid, but all of this depends on the
“China is willing to work with the international community to firmly support Cuba in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security, and opposing external interference,” foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday. “The US government should listen to the voices of justice and immediately cease its blockade, sanctions and any form of coercion and pressure against Cuba.”
That, as Yves would say, na gonna happen. Indeed, it’s worth recalling that a Chinese delegation was in Venezuela the very night US forces launched their attack on Caracas and abducted Maduro.
Cuba, meanwhile, needs all the help it can get. The tourism sector, one of the most important sources of foreign exchange in recent times, was already decimated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Now it has all but collapsed as international airlines have suspended their routes to Havana due to the island’s fuel shortages.
The one other major revenue stream — Cuba’s international medical missions — is also the target of escalating US sanctions. As Helen Yaffe notes in a recent article for The Conversation, “attacking that revenue looks to be a key component of the US push for regime change in Cuba by the end of the year”:
It is a policy of carrots and sticks. Countries kicking out Cuban medics are offered US support for “infrastructure modernisation” – things like telemedicine and virtual training. A year earlier, Rubio had announced visa restrictions for current and former officials and their families from anywhere in the world who took part in Cuban programmes.
By mid-March this year, neighbouring governments fell into line. Guatemala, Paraguay, the Bahamas, Guyana and Jamaica terminated Cuban medical missions, ending decades of cooperation. In Guatemala, more than 400 Cuban healthcare professionals, most of them doctors, are serving indigenous communities under a three decades-long partnership. The last doctors will leave by the end of the year…
With money and energy running dry, Cuba faces an existential choice: either allow the US to overhaul or at least “tweak” its Communist regime, which many analysts see as the most likely outcome; or throw in its lot with Russia and China, and adjust its policies accordingly.
The former scenario presupposes that Cuba’s Communist regime will accept direct US control of Cuba’s economy while the latter presupposes that Cuba will be able to continue to resist the energy blockade and that the US will not respond with a regime toppling military attack.
The latter scenario will also mean shifting government priorities away from the easy money provided by Western tourism and towards the higher hanging fruit available in science, technology and industry. In its favour, Cuba has already developed a universal educational system as well as a world-class biotech sector under extraordinary constraints, both of which are now suffering the effects of Trump’s energy blockade.
But as Alexander Mecouris explained in a recent episode of the Duran, Russia has repeatedly offered to help Cuba develop its energy and industrial infrastructure. But Havana instead prioritised its quid pro quo relationship with its biggest energy provider, Venezuela, which is now kaput, as well as the quick dollars provided by Western tourism:
It’s not a question here of what do the Russians intend. Or even what do the Americans intend. The immediate, more pressing question is: what do the Cubans themselves intend?
Are they simply going to take this oil and this gas that the Russians are giving them for free as a humanitarian gesture simply in order to buy themselves time in order to negotiate a better deal with the Americans or will they actually rethink their entire political strategy of the last 20 years and adjust their policies.
I think they’re going to use this to buy themselves a little more time thinking that it gives them a little bit more leverage and try and continue to negotiate in the way they have done with the Americans. And the result is that the Russian oil deliveries will stop because the Russians have no interest in sending oil for free to Cuba if all Cuba is going to do is agree a deal with the Americans.
The fact that the government in Havana now appears to be willing to grant Russian companies management of parts of Cuba’s industrial production suggests that it is indeed willing to adjust its political strategy and policies. But is it already too late?
It’s impossible to know how far Russia and China will be willing to go to keep Cuba afloat, or indeed how far the US will be willing to go to stop that from happening. We don’t even know to what extent, if any, the Trump administration signed off on Russia’s initial shipment(s) of oil to Cuba.
One thing is clear, however, as the New York Times notes: Cuba’s leadership is currently digging in while US forces bog down in West Asia. Diaz-Canal himself told Meet the Press: “In Cuba, those who occupy leadership positions are not chosen by the U.S. government.” That may have been true for the past 67 years. Whether it’s true for much longer, time will soon tell.


I am going to visit the monument of Fidel Castro in Moscow in an act of solidarity!
Neither Russia nor China can alter the fact that Cuba is located right on America’s doorstep. In other words, no matter how hard Cuba tries, its survival depends on American goodwill. The question is not if, but when, Cuba will yield to the United States.
Yes, it’s a shame because improved industrial capacity, supported universal education (with actual teachers!!), and expanded bio-tech sector would be better deals than data f’in centers, casinos, and hotels.
There is no American goodwill, it’s nonexistent. So why yield? What would one be yielding to, other than something worse.
I guess “goodwill” is a euphemism for illegal siege warfare and starvation of the civilian population. I’ll have to update my dictionary.
Cuba has been in this situation since the 1950s.
That logic puts the cart before the horse.
Cuba is the American “Taiwan” (except being an actual UN recognised country). It says a lot that an island the American founders themselves have spilt ink pining for, that American jackboots like T Roosevelt have fought in, in the coming 250th year of America’s founding is presently still getting to continually poke the great sole superpower (or “hyperpower”) in the eye with an openly (from the American perspective) antithetical government.
The greatest unspoken neurosis that the American psyche has is their fear of getting punched where they live. Fortress America has the great “moats” of the Pacific and Atlantic. No matter the mess they stir up in the Old World or the Global South, after a long day’s imperial work, they can count on going home, sitting at the table with Mom and Pop and eating their favourite homemade spaghetti. That’s why American historical canon can count on just one hand the times the “homeland” was attacked: Pearl Harbor and 9/11 (excluding the WW2 Japanese balloon and German U-Boat scares).
Cuba is no military match for the US. But the Cuban government and military, if given a clear indication that they have nothing left to lose, could always pull a Samson and lob whatever ballistic weaponry they have at Florida. Only a fraction might get through, but like Dubai, all that puffery of Miami would disappear.
The Cuban problem is and has always been the Chinese and Russian problem. Rather, the problem of their resolve and commitment. Adrian Hearn wrote a book called “Diaspora and Distrust: Cuba, Mexico and the Rise of China” back in 2010 where he noted that while the Sino-Cuban relationship is still more “special” than the average bilateral, the last Chinese leader to support Cuba bon homie was Jiang Zemin who wanted to “save Cuba’s socialist project.” Since then, Hearn documented the ruthless actuarial pragmatism of that relationship, where everything needs to be a quid pro quo cost-benefit calculus. Of course, his book ends in 2010, but the dire straits of Cuba today show that whatever China has done isn’t enough. Russia abandoned all its foreign relationships under Yeltsin and the awkward neoliberal nature of the Russian state today means any closeness needs to be bridged with ambiguous phraseology like “brothers”, as Ryabkov says.
While the Mexican quote of “so far from heaven and so close to the United States” holds doubly true for Cuba, it is precisely Cuba’s distance to the US that gives it geostrategic value. If a Yemen could ever manifest in the Caribbean, it would be America’s worst nightmare, worse than the Russians entering Paris or the Chinese taking Hawaii. Which goes to show that Cuba could continue to be the thorn to America’s underbelly at an asymmetrical price value, as states like America are at the most terrified when their unthinkable, unspeakable veil of safety is pierced, as we see happening right now to the GCC in the middle of their painstaking rebranding, well beyond America’s 250th birthday. But it needs more support that it’s presently getting from the likes of China and Russia. To be blunt, yes as with all relationships, there are reservations from both parties but the issue here has always been the willingness and resolve of the latter.
The Soviets had it briefly during the Missile Crisis, which bought Cuba decades of residual deterrent value. Never was its like seen again and Cuba’s survival will depend on how much of that spirit remains in the present generation of Sino-Russian leadership.
American goodwill? There is no such thing. Cuba’s survival depends on its own resolve and the support it receives from its friends around the world. The U.S. must be deterred everywhere, every time. by whomever is able to deter it. It is a death cult.
After 60-plus years of not yielding to the United States, I’m inclined to call bullshit.
Goodwill of epsteinian psychopaths is an oxymoron. What makes this saga truly odious is the repugnant arrogance.
…” The question is not if, but when” did authentic Cubans decide to live and die standing and not live and die on their knees….
On the topic of “[A]gain, recycling FDR’s “Good Neighbor Policy” within the hemispheric neighborhood of the Americas, seems would have a better shot at “Making Americas Great”.
I can’t help but see in my minds-eye the meme of Putin smirking with a bowl of Popcorn.
“This? oh, it’s just Dessert…”
I should have realized the Donroe doctrine would of course includes Pal Putin.
Maybe Trumps end-move is just ratf*cking the US into a 2nd-tier nation state so peace might have a chance.
There will be some pain, kids only get one chinese plastic doll instead of 30, but hey…
My head and heart continue to hurt.
As a person with skin in the game, I’m very glad to see Russia and China showing signs of not letting the US have free reign in South America. (Fortunately I’m not on the “doorstep” as Mr Negative, aka ciroc, emphasizes! /s)
Here’s a trusted resource for following the progress of the new Donroe doctrine that I just came across today:
US escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America – Live Updates
https://cepr.net/publications/americas-live-updates/
@NICK CORBISHLEY
Gracias, Expat. A very handy resource.
“Both politically and emotionally, Cuba means a lot to the people of Russia. For us, Cubans are brothers”
I’m sure this is not an important consideration for the actual deal, but it’s true – there is a lot of sentimental attachment to Cuba among people who grew up in the USSR, at least, and not just from the communists (though not from outright anti-communists, as a rule). People from my city – then Sverdlovsk, and closed to most foreigners – still fondly remember Castro’s visit in the 1960s (he broke a leg and my great-grandmother, a doctor, helped fix it, or so the plausible family legend goes). Adventurous tourists travel to Cuba frequently enough, though coming away with mixed impressions, coloured by their political prejudices (everyone agrees that it is horribly poor and run-down, but who is to blame and whether Cubans are brave or merely trapped are separate matters).
Recently, I’ve come across an article in Kommersant, a system (i.e. loyalist) liberal newspaper, about Cuba’s then-current desperate situation (I think before our ship got there, but indeed it is only a temporary relief by itself). Interestingly, the author blamed that situation on both mismanagement and sanctions, but IIRC the mismanagement consisted mainly of failing to secure an alternative fuel supply, which he admitted was made much harder if not impossible by Americans. And he insisted that despite all that, most Cubans, even if critical of the government, are not willing to surrender to the US.
I can’t find that exact article right now, but this seems to be the newspaper’s overall line on Cuba now. Perhaps Kommersant is just being more “system” than “liberal” on this one. Still, it’s a striking position for a generally anti-communist outlet to take.
100 tons –> 100,000 tons
Fixed. Thanks, Paul.
Adventurous tourists travel to Cuba frequently enough
I sometimes think I am the only Canadian who has not visited Cuba. The aviation fuel problem has probably upset a lot of Canadians holiday plans.