A western media distracted by Saturday night’s alleged attack on Trump is letting the Iran War narrative dissolve into several related streams as the ceasefire continues, except in Lebanon and the high seas.
Trump’s Lie Du Jour
I’m not going to waste a lot of time on his latest nonsense.
🚨 President Trump has issued a new ultimatum on Iran, telling Fox News Iran has just 3 days before its oil pipelines naturally “explode from within.”
He claimed the backup of oil created as a result of the U.S. naval blockade will cause catastrophic mechanical stress that will… https://t.co/kzDZ4wFSFN
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) April 26, 2026
This should be self-refuting but Trump deadenders and Mr Market will follow him anywhere (well, Mr Market might change his mind when earnings reports start dropping).
Axios Always Down to Pump the Markets for Trump
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 27, 2026
This tells me that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s desperate efforts to manipulate markets at all cost to keep oil futures below $100/barrel (bbl) have failed.
Therefore topline should go to this pathetic attempt to fluff Mr Market going into Monday morning via Axois:
This story produced a red screaming headline on Bloomberg.
*IRAN OFFERS US NEW PROPOSAL TO REOPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ: AXIOS
The markets excitedly pumped on the headline.
The problem is that this story was public 11 hours earlier.https://t.co/mWPmy30BNX
Effectively, this is a… https://t.co/hiBpDlpugt
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) April 27, 2026
Bianco points out that this tweet had already been out for hours debunking the claims of negotiation from the Trump admin:
Tasnim reports Iran is using the Islamabad channel to pass its terms for ending the war via Pakistan as mediator, not to discuss the nuclear file.
– According to the report these include: a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz, compensation, guarantees against renewed…
— Babak Vahdad (@BabakVahdad) April 26, 2026
Axios repackaged Iran's refusal to discuss nuclear as a "new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz." Iran didn't propose anything. It told mediators nuclear is off the table entirely. Futures pumped on the headline.
Ravid's last "exclusive" was that Iran's Supreme Leader gave…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) April 27, 2026
Feeble. The big problem with a completely overvalued market bending is it may break violently should the collective delusions of Mr Market shatter.
And now with the kino.
Lebanon Can’t Catch a Break
Bibi Netanyahu tells the Times of Israel that it’s all Hezbollah’s fault:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Hezbollah’s actions are threatening the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, as he pledges to “vigorously” target the Iran-backed terror group.
“It must be understood that Hezbollah’s violations are, in practice, dismantling the ceasefire,” Netanyahu says during the weekly cabinet meeting.
“We are acting vigorously in accordance with arrangements agreed with the United States and, incidentally, also with Lebanon,” Netanyahu says.
“This means freedom of action not only to respond to attacks, which is obvious, but also to preempt immediate threats and even emerging threats.”
And when Bibi talks, the Israeli military attacks, via Arab News:
Lebanon’s National News Agency reported on Sunday an airstrike hit the town of Kfar Tebnit in southern Lebanon, following a warning from the Israeli army to evacuate it along with six other villages, in what it said was a response to Hezbollah’s violation of an ongoing ceasefire agreement.
The health ministry in a statement said 14 people had been killed in the attacks, and that the dead included two women and two children, adding that 37 other people were wounded.
Earlier, the National News Agency reported that “Israeli warplanes launched a raid on the roundabout of the town of Kfar Tebnit,” resulting in “injuries.”
Israel’s military ordered residents to leave seven towns that lie beyond the “buffer zone” it occupied before a ceasefire that has failed to bring a full halt to hostilities.
A spokesperson for the Israeli military said in a statement on X that Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was violating the ceasefire and that Israel would act against it, telling people to head north and west away from the towns.
The towns are north of the Litani River and the zone in southern Lebanon occupied by Israeli troops, who have continued military operations despite the ceasefire.
Hezbollah put out a statement in response, at Al Mayadeen:
Today, the criminal “israeli” enemy prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, claimed that “Hezbollah is the one undermining the ceasefire”, and that the enemy has the right to “freedom of action” in Lebanon “according to the agreement with the United States of America and Lebanon”. Hezbollah condemns Netanyahu’s statements and warns strongly of their extreme danger, as they attempt to implicate the Lebanese authorities in a bilateral agreement that occurred only between him and Washington, in which Lebanon had no say or position, and therefore did not approve. From here, Hezbollah emphasizes the following:
The Resistance’s continued targeting of “israeli” enemy gatherings on our land which it occupies, and its shelling of enemy settlements in northern occupied Palestine, is a legitimate response to its continuous violations of the ceasefire since the first day the temporary truce was announced. These violations have exceeded 500 on land, at sea, and in the air, including shelling, demolition, and destruction of homes, leading to the fall of dozens of martyrs and wounded from our steadfast people.
Hezbollah’s statement goes on for several more paragraphs and can be read in full at Al Mayadeen.
Hezbollah also took kinetic steps per Geopolitiq:
Hezbollah responded to Israeli attacks with 4 military operations today, as reported by MES (see also Al Mayadeen):
- Targeting a gathering of Israeli soldiers in Al-Tayybeh with an FPV drone, inflicting confirmed casualties (see also RNN Mirror).
- Targeting a second IDF force that came to evacuate the previously wounded soldiers, also in the town of Al-Tayybeh, with an FPV drone and inflicting confirmed casualties (see also RNN Mirror).
- Targeting an Israeli artillery emplacement in the town of Al-Bayadeh with a swarm of suicide drones (see also RNN Mirror).
- Targeting an Israeli ‘Merkava’ tank in the town square of Al-Tayybeh with two FPV drones, scoring direct hits (see also RNN Mirror).
The first two military operations resulted in the wounding of 6 Israeli soldiers and the killing of Sergeant Idan Fooks, 19 years old, from Petah Tikva, a fighter in the 77th Battalion, ‘Sa’ar Megolan’(7th) Brigade, as reported by Al Mayadeen and MES (1 and 2), citing the Israeli Army Radio, according to which “an Israeli tank belonging to the Golani Brigade broke down in the town of Al-Tayybeh, and Hezbollah launched an FPV drone at it, killing 1 of the engineers and wounding six others. A rescue force with a helicopter then came to evacuate the wounded force, and one additional Hezbollah FPV drone impacted just meters away from the helicopter, while another drone was shot down just before impact”. Here is Hezbollah’s footage of its drone attack targeting the IDF rescue force with an FPV drone in Al-Tayybeh (from MES):
مشهد أقرب وأوضح لاستهداف قوات الإخلاء الإسرائيلية في بلدة #الطيبة اليوم جنوب لبنان. pic.twitter.com/n22bISKo9d
— حسن الدّر (@HasanDorr) April 26, 2026
Amit Segal of Israeli Channel 12 makes some telling claims about the help Syria’s new regime is providing as they attack Hezbollah:
…to fully strangle the organization, Israel needs—and has received—the help of another pair of hands: those belonging to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
In the eighteen months since his ascent to power, al-Sharaa has been guided by one instinct: survival. In the “New Syria,” that survival is defined by three pillars: centralization of power, international legitimacy and a desperate need for financial rehabilitation. These interests have converged into a singular, pragmatic mission: the expulsion of Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, from Syrian soil. In a recent visit to the Chatham House research institute in London, al-Sharaa stated that Syria “paid a heavy price for Hezbollah’s involvement” and that his duty now is to “cut the lifeline” of the organization passing through his territory.
And let’s not forget Gaza, where the murder machine funded and armed by American tax payers never sleeps, via Drop Site News:
Israeli forces killed at least seven Palestinians Sunday in a series of strikes across Gaza, according to Palestine Online, citing Civil Defense and local sources.
3 were killed near Kuwait Roundabout and the Al-Saqa Mosque in the town of Al-Mughraqa, south of Gaza City — identified as Mohammad Ziad Al-Ashqar, Mohammad Riyad Al-Ashqar, and Mahmoud Saleh Jaber.
Two others were killed by an Israeli drone strike targeting a civilian gathering south of Gaza City.
A displaced woman, Huda Al-Attar, 40, was shot and killed by Israeli forces south of Khan Younis.
A seventh, Rami Ramzi Ghabn, died of wounds sustained in a Saturday strike on the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood north of Gaza City.
Israeli forces also carried out bulldozing and demolition operations targeting civilian structures and educational facilities in southern Khan Younis, alongside naval and aerial strikes on western and eastern Gaza. An Israeli helicopter opened heavy fire on the Bureij refugee camp, and artillery shelled its northeastern edge before dawn.
Next we’ll look at the other front where some action is happening, the oceans vast.
We’re Blockading You, No, We’re Blockading You
Centcom bragged about bagging some ships Saturday:
Yesterday, M/V Sevan was among 19 “shadow fleet” vessels sanctioned by the U.S. Department of Treasury for activities related to transporting billions of dollars worth of Iranian energy, oil and gas products, including propane and butane, to foreign markets.
Earlier today, Sevan… pic.twitter.com/7HdJ5iHNF7
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 25, 2026
Tanker Trackers had details that undercut Centcom’s narrative:
BREAKING: IRAN LOADS 4.6 MILLION BARRELS AT CRUDE OIL TERMINALS
ADDITIONAL FOUR MILLION BARRELS APPEAR TO HAVE EXFILTRATED US BLOCKADE LINE
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 26, 2026
BREAKING: SATELLITE IMAGERY SIGHTINGS CONFIRM ARRIVALS OF $1.05 BILLION WORTH OF CRUDE OIL BACK TO IRAN FOLLOWING RAPID INTERDICTIONS BY US NAVY
US COAST GUARD HAS SEIZED AN ESTIMATED $380 MILLION WORTH OF IRANIAN CRUDE OIL IN INDIAN OCEAN; APPEAR TO BE HEADING TOWARDS USA
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 26, 2026
Sal Mercogliano has some analysis.
Sal Mercogliano: The US is boarding and seizing stateless tankers much as they did with the Venezuelan tankers.
Yes, they have boarded one Iranian ship, but that seems to have been the example. The rest of them are being turned and herded around toward anchorages. They don’t want to seem to attack, board, and get into a direct confrontation with the Iranians.
Instead, it is much easier and legal, by the way, to board stateless vessels and take them.
…
US forces continue to enforce US sanctions fully implement the blockade against ships or entering or departing Iranian ports. 37 vessels have been redirected since the start of the blockade.
…
We have ships loading at Kharg Island, 6 million barrels of three tankers there.The Iranians are moving a dead tanker up to that area to provide storage.
However, what we’re seeing is Iranian tankers turned around and herded back into the port of Chahar.
A series of tankers that were turned around and put back in there by the United States. This is imagery posted by tanker trackers on April 23rd.
They identified nine Iranian tankers in Chapahar. There were five on April 21st.
Now let’s talk about those elusive negotiations and how they’re seen in western corporate media.
MSM Beginning to Catch On
Now that the Iran War is no longer THE ONE BIG STORY that the MSM is obsessed with, a little bit of honesty is leaking into the narrative.
Iran "won't come to the table until the blockade is lifted"
US media now reporting correct state of play — after widespread false reports (based on US-Pakistan leaks) that Iran wanted talks
"Until you can get them to the table, I don't think we're going to make much progress" https://t.co/7RYXQ5Rp1D pic.twitter.com/ABskjbs216
— Erik Sperling (@ErikSperling) April 26, 2026
Richard Haass, veteran American diplomat and longtime president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says the clock is ticking harder and louder for the U.S. than Iran amid the blockade and closure of Hormuz, and in a larger “strategic sense,” the U.S. is “losing the war.”… pic.twitter.com/b31Hd9Qgd5
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) April 26, 2026
And while that’s going on in the west, in the rest of the world diplomats are negotiating, just without Kushner and Witkoff.
Negotiations Are Being Conducted, Just Without the US
The Iranian Foreign Minister seemingly trolled POTUS Trump by dropping back by Islamabad, via CNBC:
Abbas Araghchi had left Pakistan’s capital late the previous day, creating confusion around an expected second round of talks there, but he returned before continuing on to Moscow on Sunday, Iranian state media said. He had been in Oman, which previously mediated talks and is on the other side of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The White House last week said it would dispatch envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad to follow up on historic face-to-face talks earlier this month. But shortly after Araghchi’s departure Saturday, Trump said he had called off the mission because of a lack of progress with Iran.
“If they want, we can talk but we’re not sending people,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He said earlier on social media: “All they have to do is call!!!”
Janta Ka described Araghchi’s antics as:
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi today returned to Pakistan from Muscat after learning about Trump’s decision to not send (Kushner and Witkoff) for diplomatic talks.
The Iranians are really aware. They really know how to play around with Trump. Araghchi left for Muscat, Oman, when Trump announced his plans to send his delegation to Pakistan.
And as soon as Trump cancelled or was forced to cancel his plans following the snubbing by Iran, Araghchi returned back to Islamabad.
This is like a classic case of a decent person avoiding a jilted stalker.
Pakistani journalist Kamran Yousaf on X offered a more optimistic analysis about what Araghchi is up to with his global galavanting:
SOME KEY DEVELPMENTS
As things stand, slowly but quietly, a “mega deal,” not just involving the principal parties (Iran & the US), but several regional players and beyond, is in the making.
The likely deal between Iran and the US will not only reflect their concerns and demands, but also those of other stakeholders.
A flurry of diplomatic activities over the past 48 hours suggests a serious push to end the Iran-US war permanently.
Besides Pakistan, several other countries, including Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, to name a few, are working in tandem to thrash out a deal acceptable to everyone.
The Iranian Foreign Minister spoke to his Saudi counterpart on his way back from Oman to Islamabad.
While most are focused on Trump’s bluster, the real work is being done quietly and efficiently.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor “Lil” Marco Rubio made an usual diplomatic call today to the UAE, unusual in that Rubio appears to have no diplomatic role in the Trump administration despite his nominal portfolio:
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed discusses, during a phone call with His Excellency Marco Rubio, the United States Secretary of State, the growing strategic relations between 🇺🇸-🇦🇪, and the overall current regional developments. His Highness also commended the efforts of U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at achieving peace and consolidating sustainable security and stability at both the regional and international levels, and similarly commended the efforts of the U.S. President and Marco Rubio in bringing about peace between Lebanon and Israel.
The UAE or their Israeli pals also gave the faithful lapdogs at Axios a “scoop”:
Israel sent the United Arab Emirates an Iron Dome air defense system with troops to operate it early in the war with Iran, two Israeli officials and one U.S. official tell Axios.
The military, security and intelligence cooperation between Israel and the UAE has reached new heights during the war. The unprecedented deployment of the Iron Dome system during the war was not previously made public.
Now let’s turn our attention to some internal Israeli dynamics.
New Anti-Netanyahu Coalition Forms
The centrist leader of Israel’s opposition, Yair Lapid, and a right-wing former prime minister, Naftali Bennett, announced on Sunday that they would combine forces in elections later this year. The merger is an apparent bid to reconstitute a partnership that temporarily unseated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu five years ago.
Mr. Bennett and Mr. Lapid said their two parties, Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid, would unite into a party to be called Yachad, Hebrew for “together,” under Mr. Bennett’s leadership.
…
Support for Mr. Lapid, who is broadly viewed as weak on national security, has been flagging. Mr. Bennett, who sat out the last election and is not currently a member of Parliament, has been broadcasting a message of national unity and pragmatism. Together, they hope to appeal to the broadest possible range of the Israeli electorate, from the liberal center-left to moderate right-wingers.In a nod to the right, Mr. Bennett said on Sunday that a government he led would “not hand over a centimeter” of territory “to the enemy.” In their opening statements, both men avoided other contentious issues, such as the surge of settler violence in the occupied West Bank and the future of Gaza.
By joining forces, the pair increase their prospects of overtaking Likud in the election, which is slated to take place in October at the latest.
About that Petrodollar
Brendan Greeley wrote “There’s no such thing as the petrodollar” for the Financial Times (archived):
Currencies aren’t just vibes, powerful in some general sense because countries are. The global market for eurodollars works in specific ways that we can understand. Most significantly, the Federal Reserve has made clear that it will protect eurodollars in a crisis. The Fed maintains swap lines with a few trusted central banks. It swaps dollars on its own balance sheet, temporarily, for euros or yen on theirs. In turn, those central banks can lend dollars to their own commercial banks if their own eurodollars start to look questionable. The Fed does this because a global banking collapse would be bad for Americans, too, but it’s not hard to see why the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank appreciate the favour.
…
The global dollar system was not set in motion by a single diplomatic coup — oil for dollars. It was invented quietly by private actors, then endorsed and protected by the US. America didn’t just push its dollar out into the world. It found dollars in London, then decided to protect them. If there’s any threat to the global dollar system, this is where it will show up, in America’s willingness to support dollars created abroad that it doesn’t otherwise regulate.As the Trump administration continues to haggle and embargo and improvise in the Strait of Hormuz, the US may be losing power as an empire. But a currency is not the same thing as a country. America extends a financial security umbrella to dollars created abroad. Should it ever become clear that the Fed is not willing to extend the diplomatic generosity of its swap lines — that’s when it would be time to worry.
Some Military Analysis
Couple of pieces worth the attention of those analyzing the kino:
- Missile Issues Limit Iran, Yet It Still Holds the Cards Global 21/Patricia Marins
- The US War Machine Underwhelms – part 2 by Hua Bin
Around the YouTubes
Eurodollar University’s Jeff Snider and guest Steve Van Metre tells how:
back in April 2020, oil prices went negative after the futures market underestimated just how much demand had collapsed, causing chaos as market participants scrambled to unload their oil.
Here in April 2026, the oil futures market is in danger of something similar but in the opposite direction. Certain market participants just may be underestimating how much supply has collapsed.
Worrying that might be the case, the Dallas Fed surveyed oil industry companies about what they’re seeing and where they think the Hormuz blockage is leading the energy marketplace. You’re not going to like it.
I’m sharing this one because Johnson, the sole source of claims that Trump had tried to access the nuclear codes and been denied by his generals a week or so ago is making more claims about military resistance to Trump’s orders.
Johnson, a retired CIA analyst, has many sources in the military, but one should take these kind of claims with sufficient salt — leaks and rumors coming from ex-intel operatives are interesting but the signal to noise ratio varies.
Nonetheless, popular X.com poster Furkan Gözükara shared a clip from the show with his quarter of a million followers and described it as such:
Massive bombshell. Former CIA Officer Larry Johnson confirms top US military commanders are actively refusing orders from the Trump administration to attack Iran. The Pentagon brass knows it will create a massive disaster. A full military revolt is brewing in Washington.
On a more substantive tip, Dimitri Lascaris speaks to the Yemeni Foreign Minister, Abdulwahid Abu Ras.
Abu Ras talks some serious (and well-earned) smack when asked why he thought the USS George W. Bush had avoided the Red Sea and instead sailed around the Cape of Good Hope to reach the Indian Ocean instead.
Abdulwahid Abu Ras: “When this aggression began (against Iran), Yemen declared that the Red Sea would not be used for aggression against Iran. Therefore the American side avoided the Red Sea.
They know from previous rounds. There were periods of engagement. Yemen engaged in solo combat against American aircraft carriers and more than one aircraft carrier left this region as a result of these clashes.
The Yemeni armed forces showed they had the preparation and the will. Consequently, the American side tried to avoid this engagement at this specific stage especially as it still suffers from an inability to confront Iranian missiles and drones.
Let’s close with some yuks.
LMAO this is too much trolling 😭😂🤣 pic.twitter.com/3Czds3SMTL
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) April 25, 2026
Get straight out of Hormuz,
Little orange man!Our New Lego-style music video is here! pic.twitter.com/hngAs6nx1G
— Explosive Media (@ExplosiveMediaa) April 27, 2026
Yves will be back tomorrow, thanks for indulging me while I attempted to fill her mighty waders.
Stay safe, y’all.
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Many thanks Nat for all your hard work in filling in for Yves while she has been away. Crazy times needs sane people to shine the light on what is going on.
Thank you Nat! Great coverage of a very diverse conflict.
Yeah, gr8 job with the war covfefe, Nat!
That FT article “There’s no such thing as the petrodollar” is very good. I had to read the whole thing to understand the excerpts you quoted but it was well worth it. Now I think I understand something. I do hope Yves doesn’t now sweep in with a comment explaining how it’s all wrong.
Me too! All that petrodollar crap is over my pay grade but I saw that headline and figured she’d agree given her previous writings on the topic. Lol! Fingers crossed.
And thanks for all the kind words y’all. Blogging for this community is a real honor.
Thank you Nat! You have a different style than Yves, but you filled her boot admirably! It is also good to know that someone can fill in if something unexpected happens.
You’ve done a great job on your shift! Read every one of them.
Yes. Lucky to have you, Nat..Thanks for stepping up
“The global dollar system was not set in motion by a single diplomatic coup — oil for dollars.” Well, that may be true. But it was certainly not hurt by the US agreement with Saudi Arabia to sell its oil in dollars in 1973 and buy US Treasuries in return.
“Against a backdrop of great economic and political uncertainty, as the Watergate hearings pushed toward their close, the Nixon administration embarked on a diplomatic mission that would cement an economic partnership with Saudi Arabia that has been central to the global energy trade. To encourage Riyadh’s use of the dollar as the medium of exchange for its oil sales,(and thereby funnel those dollars back into Treasury bond markets to help finance US fiscal deficits), Washington promised to supply military equipment to Saudi Arabia and protect its national security. Despite the tumult and instability in the United States at that time, the deal showed that it retained the power to set the international agenda. In addition to keeping demand for the dollar stable, the agreement promoted its use in oil and commodities trading, while creating a steady source of demand for US Treasuries. This helped to strengthen the dollar’s position as the world’s key reserve, financing and transactional currency.”
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/is-the-end-of-the-petrodollar-near/
The Saudis reportedly killed the deal two years ago.
https://fortune.com/2026/04/07/what-is-petrodollar-petroyuan-saudi-china-dollar-strength/
Nonetheless, the US still controls the proceeds of oil sales of Iraq: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-us-controls-iraqs-oil-revenues-2026-01-23/
Though many countries voluntary tolerate and accept dollars in return for purchase of US imports, we don’t know what portion of dollar demand is involuntary…by secret agreement.
See Michael Hudson’s Super Imperialism: The Origin and Fundamentals of U.S. World Dominance for details
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/316328.Super_Imperialism
Appreciate your voice here, Nat. Great job covering for Yves. Hope all her stuff is sorted. Looking forward to your next Coffee Break.
Thanks for your work and, today, in particular, for the Rubio mention.
Is there any speculation about the reason for his apparent absence from the action? Can his disappearance be read politically in any way? Where the heck is he hiding these days?
John Helmer is the sort of analyst that I would expect would throw some light into this mystery, but I haven’t listened to him in days. Anyone has any clues?
‘Sidelining Rubio’, could be Freudian slip of the unsaid “we don’t talk to terrorists”. Rubio can talk to the monarch of the faux country UAE!
US’ lists have no overlap with the terror regime in Tehran……
The Iran “issue” will be resolved kinetically.
My sources tell me the Rubio is currently working on setting up some new drug trafficking routes in Mexico and Central America. Once the Cuban teetotalers are gone, it’s party time for Uncle Sugar!
Rubio is a secret secular hedonist…
https://genius.com/Gee-lee-coke-and-rum-lyrics
If the man don’t dance, he’s done
Nice job Nat, Thanks
I should have included this as well…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGxL2uNr7bk
A splash of lime….. Cuba libre.
IIRC.
Thanks for the great job filling in for Yves!!!
re Larry Johnson on Trump and nukes–I think he was quoting another web source on an FWIW basis and it somehow it became an “according to Larry Johnson.” However here’s suggesting that the broader point of military pushback is correct, and that while the Trump wanting codes angle might not be true (he has said he wouldn’t use nukes) the leak itself shows how Trump’s military opponents will discredit him.
Which isn’t hard of course as he is doing it to himself every day. The Trump/Dangerfield “I just want some respect” boat is sinking as even would be house media CBS asks him on 60 Minutes about the weekend shooter’s manifesto that claims he is a “rapist and pedophile.”
It’s my understanding the reaction of General Caine and L. Johnson’s leak of the event is what caused the reporter to ask Trump the nuclear weapon question. Before that Trump had always said all options were on the table. This was the first time he ruled them as out of bounds.
Although, it’s Trump so that could change at any time…
I think one can argue that what Trump says in any situation is dictated not by the truth of the matter, but by the exigencies of the situation. He says whatever he believes is most rhetorically useful in that situation. On this hypothesis, the pledge to not use nuclear weapons was rhetorically useful in that interview, regardless of the truth content of the rhetoric.
What the actual policy is (assuming that there actually is a policy) is anyone’s guess.
I prefer to guess that in this instance he was telling the truth. Please let it be the truth.
Yes. That’s clearly the case with Trump. Pretty much all of his pronouncements are rhetoric designed to affect immediate exigencies.
Larry Johnson, recently indicated that Barnes heard the same from a different source.
More importantly, there is a LEGO video confirming – I have seen more truth in the LEGO videos than the clips of the MSM that Judge Nap shows (I have an allergy to the MSM and can only tolerate very short doses, otherwise my blood pressure rises worryingly and I have an urge to vomit and to take a shower).
https://old.bitchute.com/video/KwfYN5L4XDX4/
The right-wing media is continuing to show absolute message discipline by blaming “leftist Democrat messaging” for “radicalizing” the assassin. Those “leftist Democrats” are to blame for everything! It will be interesting to see what happens when the radical opposition is coming at them from everywhere and the Democrats have faded into well-deserved vestigial irrelevancy. Those darn Emmanuel Goldstein Democrats!
I like Johnson but he is loose with sources a lot. And quotes a lot of unreliable ones. I was already in double check mode with him when he began spreading the Haaretz reporting 90 percent of Israel defenses degraded. This was widely spread. Problem is it came from a southeast Asian defense magazine quoting Haaretz and it was entirely made up. Haaretz never reported it. There have been other instances as well.
This. Larry is great, and I love to hear his insights, but he’s not someone I am comfortable citing as a source for the most part.
‘Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸 Kash during the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting
I wouldn’t like to be in his shoes right now’
Little chicken****. He could have cemented his position in the White House in pretending concern by running up to where Trump was seated and shouting for the SS to protect Trump’s life and get him to shelter. Make himself look all heroic which would have all been on video. Trump is impressed with gestures like that and may have believed Patel’s performance. Instead be blew it and made like a 1950s Duck and Cover nuclear drill.
I wouldn’t say Kash is king, but the last 3 cabinet members to get the ax were all females with names ending in ‘i’, with Kristi, Bondi and Lori going bye-bye.
Tulsi on the other hand, ought to be worried~
Tulsi? Who’s she?
She’s the ‘under the covers’ agent.
This fits quite well with his AI character in ‘Kosher Rangers.’
Thanks to Nat for posting that, by the way. I also LMAO – and laughs like that are hard to come by these days. I hope there are more episodes on the way.
On 9 Apr Hizballah blatantly violated the Trump declared truce, aka ceasefire by failing to evacuate Bint Jbiel in south Lebanon. IDF attacked and claims to surround the town, reportedly killing terrorists on 24 Apr.
Hizballah remains in Bint Jbiel in violation of Netanyahu’s tactical use of the ceasefire to grab land in Lebanon!
The US/Israeli paradigm that “you cannot negotiate” with terrorists is at work. Terrorists being anyone Trump or Netanyahu name.
Why Trump sends his son in law!
Thank you Nat for filing in while Yves was away!
Recently, I argued that Hezbollah was modernizing its deployment of drones and was already at approximately the 2023-level of drone warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian war (from explosive charges dropped vertically to suicide attack drones manoeuvering to smash on a weak point of the enemy).
The aforementioned reference to the skirmish where a first Israeli force and then the helicopter sent to evacuate the wounded were engaged in succession indicates that Hezbollah is using a new method: attacks with multiple drones.
Furthermore, Hezbollah deployed drones controlled by optical fibre to perform the attack.
With wolfpacks of fibre-guided drones, Hezbollah is trialling tactics that had become standard in Ukraine over a year ago — although it still has to achieve proficiency with them.
The Israelis are of course quite worried that Hezbollah has been studying and learning about drone warfare from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
I continue to wonder why the Israeli military is still basically sticking to obsolete 2022 practices:
1) most vehicles have no drone protection whatsoever; those tanks that have one are limited to the “metallic grid atop turret” kind;
2) the videos of the reported attack show much confusion amongst the troops, in contrast to the “every man shooting at drones” that has been the normal reaction amongst Ukrainians and Russians for years;
3) there are none of those drone interceptors used by the Russians and Ukrainians — where is the vaunted Israeli technological leadership?
The only explanations I have are:
a) The Israeli troops deployed in Lebanon are not the ones that fought in Gaza, and therefore have no experience even with the primitive drone warfare waged by Hamas in 2023.
b) The Israeli command failed to transfer know-how from the Gaza operations to troops that would be engaged in Lebanon, despite the fact that the latter had a 15 months lull to acquire those best practices.
c) Somehow the Israelis do not conceive that Hezbollah could learn, and learn fast, from experience reports on other conflicts.
Inertia in military organizations is significant, but at this level it is still incredible when in a supposedly existential fight. Perhaps the fundamental issue is that Israelis are gripped by the typical colonialist arrogance towards “primitive” natives.
This is a duplicate. Carers of the site may want to delete it.
Well, Israeli soldiers seem unable to learn not to congregate, and not to stand in front of windows. I think it is hubris – even though it keeps getting htem killed. Electronic Intifada has been showing these Hamas and now Hezbollah operations for years (!) and the Israeli’s seem to have an incapacity to learn.
I would argue that it’s largely because they are not effectively a military force and haven’t been for decades, they are functionally prison guards and have been for such a long time that they really don’t have service personal who actually were soldiers for the younger members to learn from.
Because of this they act and react largely like prison guards, which is that they are used to being the only ones with the ability to use overwhelming force, and that the primary strategy is to use tactics that maximize creating fear in order to control a numerically superior, but largely unarmed, untrained, population.
This of course is not a basis for a military that is capable of actually fighting a war against an actual determined and armed opponent, and so you see a confused response where the IDF is largely unable to cope with anything that resemble a force that is able to fight back.
Thanks Nat ! Always nice to read you.
I was interested today’s lead-in snetences- happy to see someone else looking at the Kabuki on Saturday night as ‘alleged’.
It certainly was bizarre! How a gunman was not shot innumerable times by 2026-era trigger-happy cops is beyond me, if not implausible.
And, as I was hoping to watch Fareed Zakaria’s, initial showing of ” Imperial Presidency” on Sunday night, the alleged attack did appear to successfully preempt scheduled programming— said program may have been less-than-flattering. And this week’s news and actions could prove to be Historic.
The Magician is flashing his very distracting shiny golden balls, that is for sure. I can’t unsee them!
This looks a bit weird. Some half-naked man (Cole Tomas Allen) with a shotgun runs down a hotel hallway, past a US Secret Service checkpoint and no officer reacts until he is passed.
He is still alive and does not seem to be wounded.
I wonder who shot the agent? Did Allen even fire a gun?
Brendan Greely (FT wrote, above): “The global dollar system was not set in motion by a single diplomatic coup — oil for dollars. It was invented quietly by private actors, then endorsed and protected by the US. America didn’t just push its dollar out into the world.”
That may be part of the story, but –:”Against a backdrop of great economic and political uncertainty, as the Watergate hearings pushed toward their close, the Nixon administration embarked on a diplomatic mission that would cement an economic partnership with Saudi Arabia that has been central to the global energy trade. To encourage Riyadh’s use of the dollar as the medium of exchange for its oil sales,(and thereby funnel those dollars back into Treasury bond markets to help finance US fiscal deficits), Washington promised to supply military equipment to Saudi Arabia and protect its national security. Despite the tumult and instability in the United States at that time, the deal showed that it retained the power to set the international agenda. In addition to keeping demand for the dollar stable, the agreement promoted its use in oil and commodities trading, while creating a steady source of demand for US Treasuries. This helped to strengthen the dollar’s position as the world’s key reserve, financing and transactional currency.”
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/is-the-end-of-the-petrodollar-near/
“2 years ago, Saudi Arabia quietly canceled the ‘petrodollar’ deal with America that wired the world economy for 50 years. ”
https://fortune.com/2026/04/07/what-is-petrodollar-petroyuan-saudi-china-dollar-strength/
Even so, not all dollar purchases are voluntary: “The United States, since its 2003 invasion of Iraq, has held effective control over the country’s oil revenue dollars, giving Washington extraordinary leverage over Baghdad’s affairs”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-us-controls-iraqs-oil-revenues-2026-01-23/
It is not clear what portion of dollar purchases are involuntary.
I suspect that many of the IMF’s “Washington consensus” agreement contained some provision requiring transactions in dollars. I also expect that it is at least an unmentioned factor in negotiations with Venezuela and Iran.
Watching that video of wounded IDF soldiers being medevaced out, they seem to like bunching themselves up. Not only the ones going to the chopper but also the ones still on the ground. With drones in the area, is that wise?
I’m amazed that Trump hasn’t reacted publicly to the AI trolling. I refuse to believe he doesn’t know about them. This is catnip to him and responding is the stuff he lives for. Especially given how much he likes his own AI slop, he’s been suspiciously silent on these.
I feel that South Park is similar and he acts as if it doesn’t exist, while the cretin we all know and loathe should be suing them on a regular basis for say $10 billion, for starters.
Hmm…you make a point that has me thinking. He must still be cogent enough to only go after someone weaker who will fold (or genuflect in some way), as per his normal MO. I’m pretty sure South Park would be able to claim parody (and would make much hay of any legal proceedings) and who would he sue over the lego videos? Still, you just know these videos have to be burning him up.
Yes, here’s a brand new one. I love the twangy oud sounds as well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt4OdeNX0KY&list=RDdt4OdeNX0KY&start_radio=1
Too true. It’s been a long while since someone actually tried to go after Matt and Trey, Streisand specifically. They responded with their ‘horrorvision’ episode with her ugly mug in the four corners of the screen
According to Barnes and other credible sources, Trump gets fed very limited information. So it’s really possible that he is not aware of the Iranian LEGO videos.
Basically Trump just watches Fox News for the most of info gathering, and scans the headlines of WSJ and NYT (he doesn’t read the articles, just scans the headlines and the blurb).
Of course he also gets briefed by his advisors and he Pentagon, but these are highly filtered. They only feed him stuff that they want him to see.
Germany’s Friedrich says US ‘humiliated,’ lacks strategy in Iran conflict
https://www.dw.com/en/merz-says-us-humiliated-lacks-strategy-in-iran-conflict/a-76952959
Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US lifts its blockade and the war ends, officials say
https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-hormuz-april-27-2026-374d81d1aac6d8f19c21e1d1e10ab103
Iran’s Foreign Minister is in Russia for high-level talks with President Putin.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/irans-araghchi-in-russia-for-putin-talks-cites-us-excessive-demands-for-stalled-negotiations/videoshow/130548347.cms
Kuwait deprives 1,266 including footballer, MP, of citizenship
https://www.newarab.com/news/kuwait-deprives-1266-including-footballer-mp-citizenship
End Of War, Hormuz, Nukes: Iran’s 3-Stage Proposal For Talks With US
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-us-war-end-of-war-hormuz-nuclear-issue-tehrans-3-stage-proposal-for-talks-11413511/amp/1
Iran wants Hormuz reopened first, nuclear talks later in fresh proposal, US yet to respond
https://www.firstpost.com/world/iran-wants-hormuz-reopened-first-nuclear-talks-later-in-fresh-proposal-us-yet-to-respond-14004739.html
GOP senators losing confidence in Hegseth amid Pentagon turmoil
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5848160-senate-republicans-doubt-hegseth-leadership/
MAGA’s Strange Quiet After the Shooting
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/whcd-shooter-trump-ballroom-maga-reaction/686956/
Trump Administration Says Immigrants Can Be Denied Green Cards for Expressing Political Opinions, Including Posting About Israel: Report
https://people.com/trump-administration-immigrants-can-be-denied-green-cards-expressing-political-opinions-11959002
By Week’s End, Trump’s War Will Be Plainly Illegal
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/opinion/trump-iran-war-powers.html
‘STAGED’: Conspiracy Theories Are Everywhere Following White House Correspondents’ Dinner Shooting
https://www.wired.com/story/staged-conspiracy-theories-are-everywhere-following-white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting/
Justice Department urges group to drop Trump ballroom lawsuit after WHCA dinner shooting
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5850391-whca-shooting-trump-ballroom/
Justice Department urges group to drop Trump ballroom lawsuit after WHCA dinner shooting
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5850391-whca-shooting-trump-ballroom/
‘By Week’s End, Trump’s War Will Be Plainly Illegal’
Not so. They will simply ignore that 60 day limit like they did for Obama when he did it.
Recently, I argued that Hezbollah was modernizing its deployment of drones and was already at approximately the 2023-level of drone warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian war (from explosive charges dropped vertically to suicide attack drones manoeuvering to smash on a weak point of the enemy).
The aforementioned reference to the skirmish where a first Israeli force and then the helicopter sent to evacuate the wounded were engaged in succession indicates that Hezbollah is using a new method: attacks with multiple drones.
Furthermore, Hezbollah deployed drones controlled by optical fibre to perform the attack.
With wolfpacks of fibre-guided drones, Hezbollah is trialling tactics that had become standard in Ukraine over a year ago — although it still has to achieve proficiency with them.
The Israelis are of course quite worried that Hezbollah has been studying and learning about drone warfare from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
I continue to wonder why the Israeli military is still basically sticking to obsolete 2022 practices:
1) most vehicles have no drone protection whatsoever; those tanks that have one are limited to the “metallic grid atop turret” kind;
2) the videos of the reported attack show much confusion amongst the troops, in contrast to the “every man shooting at drones” that has been the normal reaction amongst Ukrainians and Russians for years;
3) there are none of those drone interceptors used by the Russians and Ukrainians — where is the vaunted Israeli technological leadership?
The only explanations I have are:
a) The Israeli troops deployed in Lebanon are not the ones that fought in Gaza, and therefore have no experience even with the primitive drone warfare waged by Hamas in 2023.
b) The Israeli command failed to transfer know-how from the Gaza operations to troops that would be engaged in Lebanon, despite the fact that the latter had a 15 months lull to acquire those best practices.
c) Somehow the Israelis do not conceive that Hezbollah could learn, and learn fast, from experience reports on other conflicts.
Inertia in military organizations is significant, but at this level it is still incredible when in a supposedly existential fight. Perhaps the fundamental issue is that Israelis are gripped by the typical colonialist arrogance towards so-called “primitive” natives.
Hubris is a helluva drug!
Why didn’t the Wehrmacht have winter jackets for Operation Barbarossa? Even crazier, they made the same mistake again the falling year during Fall Blau (Stalingrad). They refused to acknowledge reality – that Russia cannot be conquered by sheer willpower alone just because you have some magical beliefs about your people’s speciallness. Blut und Boden or Eretz Israel, reality doesn’t care about your supremacist ideology.
Operation Bibirossa started out so promising…
Hubris and Perv’itin for the crack troops on the front lines! That’ll blitzkrieg ’em good eh
More of a schvitzkrieg, no?
They are not the only ones. If you look at what the US is still rolling out in all the various countries it’s invading, they do have that same 1980s feel. Terrific if the enemy soldiers are wearing sandals (although perhaps not, c.f. Yemen), but a disaster if opponents are in more of a first-world stance.
I also think the recent changes in the information environment do not get enough credit for what’s happening. With every soldier carrying a video camera, and having access to a global video distribution system, it’s hard to overstate how quickly military forces can learn from each other, esp. grunt-to-grunt, without new knowledge having to wait until the next war to disseminate to far away militaries.
XXYY: With every soldier carrying a video camera, and having access to a global video distribution system, it’s hard to overstate how quickly military forces can learn from each other
Quite.
I’ve heard (maybe here?) speculation that the lack of drone cages on the turrets is that it would be an admission that their own Trophy system is not performing well. it may not even be as sophisticated as not trying to show it’s not working but that they’re dealing with support issues from the manufacturer on how to deal with the threat appropriately (software updates, config etc)
“they’re dealing with support issues from the manufacturer on how to deal with the threat appropriately (software updates, config etc)”
The Israeli military was confronted with drones launched by Hamas right from the beginning of the “Al Aqsa flood” in October 2023.
If 2.5 years later the Trophy short-range protection system could still not be upgraded to deal with that threat, then I would expect hard-nosed commanders to have gone for an expedient workaround by ordering grid skirts and “cope cages” to be welded on every armored vehicle dispatched to the front.
Since it was not done, this highlights something odd in the attitude of the Israeli military.
From the link I shared:
The date is from October 2025. So it’s been upgraded but it does not appear it is dealing with the threat as of today.
An interesting article on Trophy and active protection systems in general:
https://militarymachine.com/active-protection-systems-trophy-aps
—
Danger to nearby infantry. Hard-kill APS fires explosive countermeasures outward from the vehicle. The blast and fragmentation from these countermeasures can injure or kill friendly infantry operating near the tank. This creates a significant tactical problem in combined arms operations where infantry and armor must work closely together. Some armies have established minimum standoff distances between APS-equipped tanks and dismounted troops, which complicates urban operations and close-quarters tactics.
Taps?
Someone has a fine sense of Irony.
Statement today by Hezbollah that they are activating their close quarter squads again like the ones that chased Israel out of Lebanon out in the 1980 s action. Must be thinking that Israeli troops lack the appetite for hand to hand combat. Someone once said something about the Wehrmacht becoming tank followers was the beginning of the end.
Many posts, incl. here on Naked Capitalism, claim that Obama negotiated the JCPOA. (Obama, Great, etc.) Yes this accord was signed ‘under’ Obama, he championed it.
On the ground, the preliminary, and then leading to a signed ‘Deal’ was negotiated by two main figures, John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov, with an Iranian delegation, in 2015, in Lausanne, Switz. (Many others participated.)
Recall, the JCPOA was guaranteed by the 5+1, that is, the 5 UN Veto wielding powers, plus Germany.
Lavrov and Kerry were reportedly cool in Lausanne, they both speak fluent French, and have habits that get them out in the open air / out of closed meeting doors. Both were considered ‘generous’ and ‘likeable’ by the lowly staff, Lavrov would order piles of pizzas for the stressed waiting-it-out journos. Kerry broke a leg while biking, ouch. (From me, Switz.)
The sanctions relief in the ‘deal’ never happened.
It was signed in 2016, and the US withdrew in 2018 (Trump.) In short, its existence was ephemeral.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Iran_nuclear_deal
In short, its existence was ephemeral.
In an oblique way it’s kind of like nordstream…
Don’t tell anyone, but one pipeline of the four is still intact and ready to provide authoritarian, anti-democratic energy the second Mr. Merz feels like doing something for Germany.
He can’t. He’s too busy blaming his fellow Germans for all his problems.
Stanislav Krapivnik was good on Nima’s show yesterday. Iran vs US: The MASSIVE Buildup That Could Lead to DEVASTATING Fragility (YouTube)
He explains why Trump’s ridiculous claim about Iranian pipes exploding is stupid among many other things.
Stas, as Russian and a veteran of the US military with decades of experience in the petroleum industry has some valuable insights IMO.
Thanks Nat, Stas is always a pleasure to watch. In addition to his expertise, he has an up-beat down-home friendly personality and explains things well for general audiences. He has a sense of humor as well. I’m not sure where he grew up, but his accent sounds Chicago or mid-west.
It’s Russian! He grew up in Russia and emigrated to the States as a young man.
My ear could be wrong, but he speaks US English like a native speaker. I don’t detect any significant Russian accent. (compare with Andrei Martyanov, who has a very strong Russian accent)
I think he said he was born in Lugansk, grew up in the US and now is back in Donbass.
I could have sworn that I heard him say he grew up in the South (I think it was in one of Daniel Davis’ podcasts, maybe Krapivnik’s first appearance?) I do remember him saying he did ROTC at either UNC or NC State so I’d guess North Carolina.
OK, I listened Trumps exploding pipeline clip and to Krapivik’s explanation. I realized what Trump was referring to and it had nothing to do with Krapivnik’s interpretation. What Trump was referring to was hydraulic hammer in an oil pipeline. It had nothing to do with well hydraulics.
If a pipe carrying liquid at some velocity is suddenly plugged, like by a valve slamming shut, that velocity becomes pressure. Enough pressure and the pipe will fail. I can’t imagine who put this in Trump’s head but it is bunk in terms of a petroleum pipeline. All the valving is built to move slowly to prevent just such an indecent unless some sabotage was being proposed to cause a valve to slam shut. This could conceivably be accomplished by some Mossad agent sabotaging a valve actuator. Maybe motor mouth Trump let the cat out of the bag again.
Interesting interpretation. Could well be right. Shudder to think what Mossad has leaked to that sieve.
The Explosion: A Sabotage Unveiled
In June 1982, the pipeline’s grand debut was marred by a catastrophic event. A huge explosion ripped through the Trans-Siberian Gas Pipeline, reducing it to rubble. This unexpected disaster not only rocked the Siberian landscape but also sent shockwaves through the Soviet Union, both politically and psychologically.
The roots of the explosion traced back to a covert operation by the KGB. In order to secure a much-needed control system for the pipeline, the KGB turned to its elite “X Line” spy network, tasked with acquiring advanced Western technology. Their target was a Canadian company’s SCADA system, crucial for managing the pipeline’s operations.
The KGB operatives managed to infiltrate Canada and, after months of effort, succeeded in stealing the software. However, unbeknownst to them, the CIA had anticipated this move and had tampered with the software. They planted a “logic bomb” in the code, a hidden destructive program that would activate when the system was put into operation.
When the Soviet engineers installed the stolen software and powered up the pipeline, the “logic bomb” went off. The control system malfunctioned, causing catastrophic pressure buildup that ruptured the pipeline. The resulting explosion lit up the Siberian sky and sent shockwaves across the political landscape of the Cold War.
https://ancientwarhistory.com/the-explosive-history-of-the-trans-siberian-gas-pipeline-a-cold-war-tale-of-strategy-and-sabotage/
But:
Another point of criticism of the sabotage allegations is that, according to Prof. V. D. Zakhmatov, an explosion safety expert who has overseen the safety measures on many of the Soviet oil and gas pipelines built in the 1980s,[5] at the described timeframe Soviet Union simply didn’t practice digital control of its pipeline system. Most of the control was manual, and whatever automation was used utilized the analog control systems, most of which worked through pneumatics.[5]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_the_Abyss#Trans-Siberian_gas_pipeline_sabotage_allegation
There was an episode of The Americans where the plot was to steal advanced naval technology, and upon installation, a similar mishap took place in the Soviet Navy.
I always loved these stories – but I don´t believe a single word by now.
Americans telling me how dumb – again – KGB is coz backward in technology and all? – sigh.
Why is it that in 99% of all this cloak and dagger we are being fed since 1945 it´s the same pattern.
But then when you look into actual technological history – with cracking Enigma it´s even before that – you have countless cases of the East doing very well at the R&D front.
Not to speak about the advantage the Western colonialist powers were enjoying with centuries of stealing resources.
On the consumer side it may look different. But even there you couldn´t compare FRG and the US with say Italy or England. Rightfully former GDR politicians often pointed at the fact that GDR was compared exclusively to the FRG. Never with standard of living in England, Belgium or Spain.
Of course nobody gave a shit. We was celebrating the big victory over Communism.
p.s. Which doesn´t mean the above story couldn’t be true. But it´s all too much “Chernobyl-paradigm” for my taste.
A version of the story shows up in how Russians copied the B29, although within a conrext.
A much repeated story is how Russians were so dumb that they even copied bullet holes in the B29s they got their hands on, but in the following article, the author points out that this was actually a power move by Andrei Tupolev, put in charge of the project. Despite Stalin’s insistence that everything had to be copied exactly, it literally could not be done: USSR had different standards for electrical wires, aluminum plates, nuts and bolts and so on. Copying everything was impossible, but if they didn’t copy exactly but tried to make a naive approximate copy using what they had, the product was going to be inefficient, unsafe, or both. In other words, they had to make a lot of changes using what they were familiar with. The “copy,” in other words, had to look like a genuine copy to those who didn’t know the tech–like Stalin or his agents–but had to use a lot more Russian tech than it appeared, if only because it needed to be manufactured, operated, and maintained in Russia and had to perform properly. Those “bullet holes” were needed for the first goal–we are copying even such ridiculous things!–so that they can put in their own stuff under the surface.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/made-in-the-ussr-38442437/
That happens when product is flowing through valves and such when a gas is introduced too. The gas (air or anything else) flows through the valve or orifice very quickly, the liquid phase fluid then hits the same surfaces and flows through more slowly. That sets up the hammer effect. Temperatures can affect this phenomenon because you’re looking at how a compression wave will transmit through the medium (directly related to the speed of sound though the material).
Of course, you could also just launch a pig with an explosive charge into the product stream and blow the pipeline up. Much simpler that way.
In order for a pressure spike to result from a gas pocket there has to be a pretty complete bubble. That is not going to happen in a 36 in pipe. Any free gas will just be extending along the top of the liquid. The fluid would also have to have sufficient velocity. If there is an orifice or other throttling device the fluid would already be slowed. ASME standards call for a 4:1 safety factor for pressure lines to handle pressure spikes and other mechanical stresses. API, American Petroleum institute is a little looser at 3:1. Fluid velocity in those conduits runs typically 15 to 30 feet per sec. depending on viscosity. Large pipelines typically run less then 8 feet per sec un-throttled.
I spent some time analyzing this on a generating penstock failure, which is why I recognized what Trump was hinting at. That said I can also think of a lot of different ways to take out a pipeline.
All correct, and of course I agree. Just wanted to add that to the conversation. Also…
WHICH IS NOT SUGGESTING ANYONE DAMAGE ANY INFRASTRUCTURE!
For the NSA agents currently reading this thread.
“All the valving is built to move slowly to prevent just such an indecent unless some sabotage was being proposed to cause a valve to slam shut. ”
This is exactly how I interpreted it, but OK, and then what? More oil gets taken off the market, Iran retaliates by hitting another country’s oil infrastructure to remove even more oil off the market, and/or Iran charges an even higher amount to transport oil through Hormuz?
The same logic applies to the idea that “Iran will have to shut down its oil production if the US blockade continues.
I mean, let’s say the US waves a magic wand at this point and literally just makes all of the oil and gas within Iran’s border disappear. How does this in any way help the US, Israel, or any country in the world?
Israeli Defense Minister Katz’s comments on today’s Judge Nap’s programs need to be seen to be believed. I suggest the conversation with Alistaire Crooke beginning at @26. Crooke asserts that Israel has become a messianic state with goals in no way compatible with U.S. interests. Mr. Katz’s frightening comments need to be widely viewed.
What did Katz say?
Not able to search videos at the moment.
Fairly reprehensible stuff, the “standard” Israeli talking point with regards to Iran. This should give you an idea: We will send Iran back to the age of stone and darkness (slightly paraphrased).
I guess everyone has a different idea of what constitutes a “disaster.”
Hard to imagine a bigger disaster than the one Trump began a couple of months ago. I read an estimate yesterday that it is believed this war of choice will eventually cost the world economy a trillion dollars or more, not to mention starvation, poverty, businesses and industries destroyed, and civilians and soldiers killed and wounded. We may even see whole countries and regions depopulated if more of the energy grid is destroyed if water and air conditioning become unavailable in the increasingly furnace-like Middle East.
But apparently US military officers refusing to do more of the same is the real disaster!
Wow!
I’ll supply a nom doubloon for it…
‘Junta del Este’
Is this a brand new mondegreen?
Hard to imagine a bigger disaster than the one Trump began a couple of months ago.
I would submit that a Trump-initiated nuclear exchange could easily be a bigger disaster than the current trillion dollars of damage to vital infrastructure.
Or all oil and gas infrastructure in the region destroyed.
If you actually read Trump’s remarks over time, I think he has been very consistently uncomfortable with the idea of using nukes (and even war, interestingly).
I think the nukes stories are just made up/deliberate misinformation to posture for something or other
Having said that, if it is believed true, I find it astonishing that Congress doesn’t even care enough to look into the matter, and the press doesn’t even care enough to press him on it.
Gracias, Mr. Nat; yes, welcome, Yves, back. I find your prose engaging, the flow and such. Follow your here, there, all about. Be Well ❤️🐈⬛
Richard Wolff: Petrodollar Decline Unravels the U.S. Empire
50 min.
https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/richard-wolff-petrodollar-decline
re: arguing swaps
So the GCC couldn´t pay back their debt with no more income, would thus sell US assets and drive up interest rates in the US?
I haven’t listened to the interview yet, but yes, that’s my understanding based on what I’ve been reading here over the last week or so. The UAE is short on dollars with oil sales and tourism on the downswing, but it still has dollar obligations. It also has US$ reserves, but it doesn’t want to use those yet since selling Treasuries to get US$ would cause rates to rise (a US problem), and ample reserves are good to have and they don’t want them to fall short (a UAE problem). So they made the request to the US to swap UAE currency for US$ so they don’t need to draw down reserves. But they also made a thinly veiled threat to do a swap with China instead if the US gets cold feet. That part I’m a little fuzzier on – I think that arrangement would swap UAE currency for yuan, thereby denominating oil sales in Chinese currency. The US really doesn’t want that.
Swapping UAD for RMB for require the Emirates to sell the RMB for USD, putting pressure on RMB.
My guess is borrowing some of the trillions of Chinese US Treasury holdings (USD-denominated) in exchange for taking on RMB obligations. UAE would become a debtor to China in RMB – which would place long term pressure on it to sell oil for RMB….
Thanks Nat, I much appreciate your great work.
Welcome back Yves.
Maybe the gang of 4 Sunnis plus Iran can put enough pressure on the us to get the us to withdraw, hopefully without much more war? If so, they have sufficient reason to continue working together given israel will remain. But that is the sticking point – will israel/aipac/powerful donors allow the us to withdraw? Imo not until a market crash gets under way.
Has anybody given thought to (or read somebody who has given thought to) whether collecting a toll from Straits of Hormuz would fundamentally distort Iran’s economy (basically Dutch Disease type economy) to the point that it would be detrimental?
If so, how would Iran avoid this?
My immediate reaction is that this is avoidable in principle because the toll + oil will not completely dominate Iran’s economy (at least not initially),but I don’t have very well defined thoughts about this over time…
Controlling Hormuz is not merely an opportunity to extract rent. It is a massive diplomatic and political incentive to play nice with Iran. Just by Iran exerting control on the strait, nations that once took advantage of its weakness vis-a-vis trade and investment will suddenly discover their generosity of heart and provide Iran with much improved terms.
In every dealing, Iran’s position will be augmented by the unspoken power of the strait to punish at will anyone who angers them and to reward their friends’ loyalty. I expect Iran’s economy to develop and diversify rapidly after the war.
Iran will be born again. It’ll be like the Islamic Republic coming in from the cold.
Thanks for the reply.
I completely agree regarding the diplomatic and economic importance of controlling Hormuz. And it’s not just on terms–it is very difficult to sanction a country when you are paying them for every barrel you transport through. Also, creating “instability” in Iran may now have massive repercussions, thus aligning interests somewhat.
I am wondering if there is a way to escape the “trap” of Hormuz rents as a cash cow, though. Or is this even a trap at all–maybe there are nothing but positive second-order effects? I am just thinking that given that Iran is already oil-rich, this is a very pro-cyclical revenue source. (Then again, I am not an economist–the entire issue may be nonsensical)
___
As an aside, would Iran really charge a fixed rate by the barrel (or by volume, since not everything that passes through is oil), or rather a percentage of overall cost per barrel? That might get messy due to different grades of oil, etc.
For that matter, are there institutional ways to enforce/prevent this from happening, even over time?
Ukraine summons Israeli ambassador over vessel with ‘stolen grain’ in Haifa
Trump knocked out by Iranian!
Hossein Vafei beat the president’s namesake (and genuine world no 1) at this year’s world snooker championship.
I Get Why People Call the White House Correspondents’ Dinner Shooting Staged. I Was There
https://www.thedailybeast.com/i-get-why-people-call-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting-staged-i-was-there/
Ukraine Threatens Israel With Diplomatic Fallout Over Suspected Stolen Grain Shipment
https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraine-threatens-israel-with-diplomatic-fallout-over-suspected-stolen-grain-shipment-18261
Trump ballroom lawsuit plaintiff rejects DOJ demand to drop case after ‘assassination attempt’
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/27/trump-ballroom-whcd-doj-lawsuit.html
As expected, Supreme Court officially greenlights Texas’ gerrymandered congressional map for midterms
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/as-expected-supreme-court-officially-greenlights-texas-gerrymandered-congressional-map/
Terrifying Details Exposed on Who Built Epstein’s New Mexico Ranch: Why the Hell was a Military Contractor Involved in Building Jeffrey Epstein’s El Zorro Ranch?
https://newrepublic.com/post/209552/military-contractor-build-epstein-new-mexico-ranch-nuclear
Top Trump Goon Sued for Failing to Release the Epstein Files
https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-trump-goon-sued-for-failing-to-release-the-epstein-files/
Trump Held Up Secret Service During WHCD Shooting for Dumbest Reason
https://newrepublic.com/post/209524/donald-trump-secret-service-white-house-correspondents-dinner-shooting
No, Trump Doesn’t Need a New Ballroom to Protect Himself
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-demands-support-ballroom-corresondents-dinner-attack-1235554167/
Analyst says he was perplexed at security for White House Correspondents’ Dinner, says ID “not checked at any point”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-correspondents-dinner-national-security-expert-id-not-checked/
WHCD shooting exposed MAGA media’s secret social media operation
https://www.salon.com/2026/04/27/whcd-shooting-exposed-maga-medias-secret-social-media-operation/
Iran suspends exports of certain steel products for over 1 month
This article is chock-a-block full of stats (too many to blockquote). Here are just a few:
The oil, gas and arms companies profiting from the war on Iran
Canada mulls observer role in fighter jet program with Italy, U.K., Japan: McGuinty
Israel withholds Palestinian clearance funds again, deducts $200 million
Vance Doubts the Pentagon’s Depiction of the Iran War | The vice president is worried that the U.S. is running low on weapons
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/iran-war-vance-hegseth-trump/686905/
The Trump Administration Is Dismantling FOIA
https://www.notus.org/trump-white-house/trump-administration-dismantling-foia
Trump Judge Says Some Women Are Just a “Warm, Wet Hole”
https://newrepublic.com/post/209562/donald-trump-immigration-judge-women-warm-wet-hole
‘Wait A Minute’: Trump Reveals Why JD Vance Was Led Offstage More Quickly Than He Was
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-secret-service-move-vance-faster_n_69ef660fe4b0d1d8ce9548c5
We Will Be Paying for the Iran War for a Very Long Time
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/opinion/iran-cost-united-states-iraq-ukraine.html
Trump Can’t Stop Lying About the Attempts on His Life
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/trump-whcd-shooting-assassination-attempt/?nc=1
Trump says he’s won the war. No one has told the Iranians
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-says-he-s-won-the-war-no-one-has-told-the-iranians-20260427-p5zr90.html
Donald Trump’s Lose-Lose Negotiations with Iran
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/donald-trumps-lose-lose-negotiations-with-iran
Trump discussed new Iran proposal with national security aides on Monday, White House says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-discussed-new-iran-proposal-with-national-security-aides-monday-white-2026-04-27/
Analysis: Will President Donald Trump’s criticism of Pope Leo XIV have electoral implications?
Potential consequence of TDS: it’s all Trump’s fault, so we need to learn nothing? It doesn’t need to be just Trump–Trump himself practiced this a lot by putting the blame on Niden and/or Obama for all sorts. The real problem is that Ukraine and now Iran poimt to the big ways the world is changing and there is much to learn if we are to adapt, yet some derangement or another provide justification for piggish refusal to learn anything from the failures.
https://xcancel.com/policytensor/status/2048836470522229133#m
Yes. My friends and family are already peppering my feed with meme posts. The posts claim that if Biden/Harris had been elected, Ukraine would have won, there would have been no shutdown, the economy would be doing better, and the Iranian war would never have started. This is “they have learned nothing and forgotten nothing” on steroids.
Thank you, Nat.
I’m a little perplexed by the multiple narratives w.r.t. Lebanon.
I thought(?) Iran said that an end to attacks against Southern Lebanon were a condition of the cease-fire, but of course the Zionists just ignore that and keep bombing.
No reaction from Iran?
Meanwhile, UKOIL just continues its upward trend:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/LidzNsl4/
Ex-Mossad chief: Settler violence an existential threat, but curbing it could spark civil war
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ex-mossad-chief-brands-settler-violence-an-existential-threat-but-says-curbing-it-could-spark-civil-war/