Recent Items

Iran War: Negotiations Fail; US Provokes with Destroyer Entry into Strait, Perhaps Pointing to Next Kinetic Moves

Posted on by

[Today’s Iran war post launched before complete because stockpiling and trip prep. Please come back or refresh your browser at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]

The US/Iran talks failed, predictably but perhaps faster than expected. Recall that a pause misleadingly called a ceasefire was set for two week to allow for settlement of disagreements and an end to the conflict. The session ended with JD Vance claiming that the US had made its “final and best offer.” There was no indication from either the US or Iran side that further discussion was in the works.

The two sides had a ginormous chasm between their positions. Iran had not reason to either trust the US or make large concessions. The badly-enbubbled US leadership seems to believe one or both of two things. First, that the US has won and/or is winning, so (in a variant of “the Russians are running out of weapons”) if they can keep pressure on, Iran will soon fall into a heap. Second, that the continuation of the conflict will benefit key interest groups aligned with the Administration, such as fossil fuel players, defense contractors, and Silicon Valley. The latter view is as nutty as the first. As the wags say, the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. They eventually kill economic activity and lead to low oil prices. The futures market expects that, with longer-dated contracts trading more in line with old normal prices.1

We’ll turn first to the recaps and hot takes on what happened, and then look at why failure was predictable and what happens next.

The talks lasted 21 hours. Recall Iran had set a one-day limit. Iran in a show of seriousness sent a massive team, including technical, military, security and banking experts. This was likely intended to stand in contrast to the lightweights America dispatched.

JD Vance’s short remarks come at the top of this Aljazeera segment:

First, the US position is that Iran would not accept its terms, strongly implying that the US did not intend to negotiate. Vance depicts the main sticking points as Iran refusing to commit never to build a nuclear weapon. That is code for no enrichment, even for medical purposes, a position Iran has consistently rejected.

Second, you may have noticed that Vance by implication saying Iran had to negotiate from the US position amounted to a disagreement over process, or what in Vietnam War negotiations was called the shape of the table. Iran had repeatedly maintained that it had preconditions for negotiation, such as the return of all of its frozen assets, an end to hostilities on all Middle East fronts, and acceptance of its sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Vance framing indicates that the US puts its fingers in its ears and said, “Nyah nyah nyah” to Iran’s procedural requirements.

You’ll see in the Aljazeera segment a bizarre amount of cope about how the negotiations might restart later. IMHO this is impossible absent big and undeniable changes in facts on the ground, and/or regime change in Israel or the US.

Iran quickly made clear why the interaction went nowhere. The Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman cited an atmosphere of mistrust…

The Speaker of the Parliament, MB Ghalibaf, similarly said, “…the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations.””

It looks as if, true to form, the Trump Team was unable to contain its bad impulses. It engaged in a show of macho by sending two destroyers to the Strait of Hormuz while the talks were underway. More on this soon, but the US predictably tried making noise about the vessels getting through the Strait of Hormuz, when this was in fact a bad-faith action. Iran would not shoot as the ship as it normally would absent the pow-wow. Instead, parties in Iran contacted their negotiators. They informed the US side that if the destroyer did not exit in 30 minutes, it would be attacked. It beat a retreat.

In addition, some commentators said that Trump put a (further) chill on the talks via his threats while they were underway. I assume this was what they meant:

Assuming Trump believes what he wrote above, this statement provided yet more evidence of his cluelessness about the state of the conflict. As readers know well, Iran has many mechanisms for threatening vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and thus forcing them to comply with its terms for transit: fast surface boats (apparently well stored), surface drones, underwater drones, drones fired from well behind the cliffs (recall they have a range of 50 kilometers), and firing ordnance of Lord only knows what sort from the many caves in the cliffs overlooking the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, the threat to bar Iranian traffic would be certain to send Mr. Market into even more of a tizzy. Recall that the US unsanctioned Iranian tanker cargoes to get as much oil back on the market to temper price increases.

But no idea is too stupid for this Administration not to attempt it, so don’t rule it out.

And the arguable coup de grace on the mistrust front:

Larry Johnson provides additional intel in Trump Refuses Exit Ramp, War with Iran will Continue:

As I expected, the negotiation between the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement. Although JD Vance headed the US team, he was never in control… I have heard from someone who was directly involved with this circus in Islamabad that Israeli agents — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — made certain that JD Vance would not follow his instincts and accept the deal that Iran had laid on the table. Israel’s role in sabotaging the US delegation was evident in Vance’s statement announcing the failure of the negotiations, when he falsely accused Iran of refusing to give up its alleged quest for a nuclear weapon. This is just a rehashed piece of Zionist propaganda.

There were three Iranian conditions that the US refused to accept: Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to Israel’s attack on Lebanon and Hezbollah, unfreezing of Iran’s assets and retaining sovereignty over its supply of enriched uranium. I have said repeatedly this past week during various interviews on the subject that Iran’s position on these issues was non-negotiable.

Here is the statement just released by the Iranian government:

The American enemy, which is vile, wicked and dishonest — attempted to achieve on the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war.

Among these demands are handing over enriched uranium and opening the Strait of Hormuz without confirmed Iranian sovereignty over it.

Iran has decided to reject these terms and continue the sacred defense of its fatherland by any means necessary, military or diplomatic.’

Reports from the Iranian side suggest an additional layer of spin via the focus on the “nuclear weapsons” issue, that of the US refusal to pressure Israel to halt attacks on Lebanon was a big no-go for them (click through on the underlying tweet for the translation; it did appear for me in English when logged into Twitter):

Despite Iran making a gesture that the talks might not be dead:

…the Iranian media seems to speak with one voice in pinning the failure of the talks firmly on the US, and more important, indicating that Iran has no interest in further discussions until the US relents on its demands:

The Iranians are yet again trolling:

It was also clear, via the provocation as the talks were on of the US trying to send a destroyer through the Strait of Hormuz. The US propagandists make much of the claim that it “got through”. This sort of dick-wagging in fact reveals the weakness of the US position, that it is desperate to score what it can present as wins to hide its fundamental defeat.

Patrick Henningsen, in a discussion before the talks broke down, describes why he was confident they would fail.

There’s a lot of important insight here, so I urge you to listen to the entire segment. Henningsen says the Iranians did not seem to think an agreement was possible but nevertheless treated the process seriously to show they were a “normative power”. He describes Trump’s terrible track record as a negotiator and that he, Witkoff and Kushner seem unable to conduct themselves in a way that fosters productive long-term relationships. 2 And aside from the posture of the Trump Team, Israel stood ready to sabotage any deal. Henningsen aligns with Alastair Crooke in seeing the US and Israel as trying to stoke civil war in Lebanon.

Nima cites a CNN report that China has been arming Iran. Henningsen believes China like Russia has been preparing for the worst.

Max Blumenthal, in a discussion with Glenn Diesen, effectively dashes any hope of what Joe Kent described as the only hope for an early-ish end of the Iran war, that of the US cutting Israel loose. Blumenthal describes long form the deep ties between Trump and the Zionists, going back to his father Fred Trump. Blumenthal lists many figures in Trump’s inner circle, some of whom may not be familiar to readers, as well as his family’s investment in a network of Zionist influencers.

In another valuable exchange, Alastair Crooke tells Chris Hedges that the Iranians view the ceasefire as what they would call a hudna (which seems even more provisional) and offers some key high-level observations.

From a mildly cleaned-up machine transcript starting at 9:25:

Crooke: I mean in a nutshell the objectives of Iran are to blow blow up the existing paradigm. That is a revolutionary objective, to blow it up completely, in order that they can escape if you like from the cage in which they’ve been held for 48 years of surrounded by US military forces, besieged by tariffs, by restrictions, UN resolutions, political isolation, economic, cultural if you like boycott. So this is what they are trying to break out from break out. It’s not the same cage that the Hamas and the Palestinians are in in Gaza, which is a literal fence and drones and monitoring of it. But Iran is intent on breaking the paradigm and the key to breaking that paradigm of course is the Hormuz and their control over the Hormuz which is um the uh centerpiece of their strategic objectives.

And at 12:20:

Crooke: Iran doesn’t have air dominance but instead of which they have created missile dominance overthe airspace um of the whole region and including Israel Um the damage to their missile capabilities has been grossly overstated by the old tactic of just counting, this goes back to Vietnam, counting air strikes. And one of the things that has been most notable in this period is before the war, Iran bought from China a huge number of decoys, decoy planes, decoy missiles. And one of the things um not only are they very effective in their appearance, but I didn’t know until recently is they have a heat source in them. So they are hot. And so of course that shows up on the American sensors and the Israeli sensors as a real target, a real plane, a real missile um when it’s really only a decoy.

Crooke also describes how the underground missiles operate, the Iranian demand that GCC states expel major US corporations like Microsoft if they are to have a relationship with Iran, and Israel’s objectives in Lebanon.

On the economic front, those who depicted the latest strikes on Saudi pipelines as set to produce a marked cut in output for months look to have been wrong:

Stanislav Krapinvik did say in a recent interview on The Duran that damage to the pipes proper could be repaired quickly, but that the destruction of a pumping station would be more serious.

Now to the incursion of the US into the Strait of Hormuz. Recall that we pointed out yesterday that a New York Times story, based entirely on input from unnamed US officials, claimed that Iran had mined the Strait of Hormuz but had lost track of them and so could not clear them. So that article was pretextual.

There is some dispute about what went down:

Note that one thing that does seem to be agreed, that the US ships were destroyers, belies the pretense that this incursion was for mine clearing. The US mine sweepers are littoral combat ships, not destroyers.3

Sal Mercogliano has been calling repeatedly for the US to send in naval carriers to force the Strait of Hormuz open, as if Iran now is the Iran of the tanker wars of the 1980s. He is also very orthodox/MSM accepting in his views So his comments on a military matters, as opposed to commercial shipping, need to be taken with a fistful of salt:

But after his discussion of the destroyer posturing, Mercogliano describes how Iran has been trying to change navigation patterns, to have commercial ships stop using their old route through the center of the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran has been successful in its herding.

Keep in mind that per Tasnim in Hormuz Strait’s Key in Iran’s Possession: Velayati and other comments on Twitter, Iran maintains that it is still very much in control.

More evidence of the US trying to cover up how badly it is faring:

Stopping here for now. See you tomorrow!

_____

1 From Marketwatch at Friday’s close. This appears to anticipate that production and shipping will get back on their feet in perhaps three to six months but also a slowdown in activity. As we have reported, the price of actual barrels is much higher now than paper crude:

.2 In passing, Henningsen compares Trump conduct to that of Pol Pot…as has yours truly, regarding his war on elites.

From the Navy Times in March:

The U.S. Navy decommissioned half of its Avenger-class mine countermeasure ships last year and began replacing them with littoral combat ships that possess anti-mine capabilities.

Per Wikipedia:

A littoral combat ship (LCS) is a relatively small surface vessel designed for littoral warfare in near-shore operations. There are two LCS ship classes deployed by the United States Navy. The LCS was “envisioned to be a networked, agile, stealthy surface combatant capable of defeating anti-access and asymmetric threats in the littorals”, although their ability to perform these missions in practice has been called into question.

Littoral combat ships are comparable to corvettes found in other navies.[3][4] The Freedom class and the Independence class are the two LCS variants. Each is slightly smaller than the U.S. Navy’s earlier Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate but larger than Cyclone-class patrol ships. Each has the capabilities of a small assault transport, including a flight deck and hangar for housing two SH-60 or MH-60 Seahawk helicopters, a stern ramp for operating small boats, and the cargo volume and payload to deliver a small assault force with fighting vehicles to a roll-on/roll-off port facility. Standard armaments include Mk 110 57 mm guns and RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missiles. They are also equipped with autonomous air, surface, and underwater vehicles. Possessing lower air defense and surface warfare capabilities than destroyers, the LCS emphasizes speed, flexible mission modules, and a shallow draft.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Subscribe to Post Comments
430 comments

  1. ChrisFromGA

    Thanks for your continuing great coverage of the war. Thanks as well for making the point that weakness in crude future prices out six months and further could be due to the market pricing in an economic slowdown. That seems inevitable to me, despite the screechers on CNBC saying that everything is just peachy in the economy.

    I’ll go out on a limb and make a prediction: Taco’s alleged summit with Xi in mid-May will be canceled/postponed. No way he can leave with the war still raging, and Xi will probably not want to give him any credibility.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Trump’s plan was to meet Xi and show him how he had full control of Venezuela’s and Iran’s oil that use to go to China and use that as leverage for perhaps getting refined rare earths. This war leaves him now with nothing. I agree with you that that summit will now no longer be held for the reasons that you gave.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Xi should put a precondition that Taco has to come with his pants down, subject to mockery for his lack of, let’s just say, length on the golf course.

        1. The Rev Kev

          Xi could kindly point out to Trump that it is common for golfers like him to lose their balls in their old age, especially when they insist on playing in the rough.

          1. KLG

            Golfers (sic) like Trump also use mulligans to their heart’s content. Seems to me that the problem with the Current Occupant is that none of his “crap” up to this point in his charmed life has had lasting consequences. All he does is drop another golf ball and play on, whatever the game is. The Iranians, resolute as they are, don’t play games and are thus completely foreign to him.

            1. Wukchumni

              ‘Daddyshack’

              Bill Murray stars as a hacker who happens to be a President who resembles all grown up now Anthony Fremont-who regularly whisks people that upset him, into the scorned field.

              AI Rodney Dangerfield has a small cameo role.

                1. Wukchumni

                  Watched it the other day with a friend, and he kept comparing current events not just relating to Anthony Fremont, but all of the adults-who are terrified to do anything about him.

  2. The Rev Kev

    If there was one act that was guaranteed to spike these talks was Vance taking a call from Netanyahu in the middle of them. It was bad enough to have two bad faith Zionist “negotiators” in that meeting but taking that call from Bibi showed the Iranians who was really running the show with the US – and it was not the US. But this meeting was also going to fail. Saw a tweet mention an opinion piece in the US media where the guy was arguing that the entire Iranian negotiating team should be assassinated if they fail to take Trump’s deal. Real mafia stuff but it was published anyway.

    1. DJG, Reality Czar

      Rev Kev: Your point about wrecked U.S. sovereignty can’t be underlined enough. Taking a call from Netanyahu? The vice president of the United States has to have phone time with a genocidaire?

      It also makes one wonder why, during this epoch of social media when everything related to information is one big sieve, one (Vance) would do something that impolitic in public.

      Impeachable. [See below.]

      1. .Tom

        There is exactly one thing preventing the USA from negotiating an end to the war: Israel.

        So while the meeting in Islamabad were ongoing, Trump was blabbering incoherently on Truth Social while Vance was taking calls from Netanyahu.

        Seems to send a clear message on where direction is coming from. Calling that impolitic seems a bit like calling the Minab school massacre impolitic. Or 100 bombs in 10 minutes on Beiruit on Wednesday. These things are done to show who’s boss.

      3. Kouros

        Maybe Vance was afraid that if he’s not picking the call, the next one would come on his pager…?

    2. Ben Panga

      >Saw a tweet mention an opinion piece in the US media where the guy was arguing that the entire Iranian negotiating team should be assassinated if they fail to take Trump’s deal.

      It was this Marc Thiessen opinion piece in WaPo:

      Iran thinks it has leverage. Here’s how Trump can prove it wrong. (archived)

      Money quote:

      Fourth, carry out a final barrage of leadership strikes, eliminating the Iranian officials who had been spared for the purpose of negotiations. Iran’s leaders must be made to understand that their lives literally depend on reaching a negotiated settlement to Trump’s liking. If they refuse to do so, they will be killed.

      Par for the course zio-evil stuff for Thiessen.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Thanks for finding that, BP. Real evil stuff that. His Wikipedia entry has no real surprises here-

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Thiessen

        I am reminded here of how in the past if an emperor did not like the suggestions of a group of foreign negotiators, that he would send them back to their home country – in many pieces.

    3. Matthew

      What should worry everyone, as Trump fades (see the full-length version of his exchange with reporters before boarding a flight to watch a cage fighting match yesterday) and grows less certain of himself, he seems to be allying himself with the ZionistS, ceding more power to them. Not surprising that Vance–who Trump must be wary/jealous of, anyway–gets short-shrifted (is forced to take the Netanyuhu call, with Witkoff and the execrable Kushner really in charge?)

      But that makes for a real and growing vacuum at the top, with Netanyuhu calling the shots. (He may only really have to invoke Epstein every now and then to get Trump in line.)

      If there are legs to this Brazilian playboy story and Trump really DID intercede with ICE to get the man’s ex- thrown out of the country (should be an impeachable offense, if true, by itself). . . I think we just have to hope and pray for continuing failure on all fronts now. Hard to wish that on the US military, certainly, but–as with the oil prices–things look like they have to get worse before they get better.

      A severe shrinking of US hegemonic power. . . also likely to the rest of the world’s benefit.

      There will, of course, be a second act here, namely the attempt at a more severe clampdown, and reprisals, as the humiliation is absorbed and Trumpco, a reconfigured MAGA shorn of populist nuances and hysterical in its nationalism becomes the only thing they have left (see Steve Bannon yesterday).

      1. David in Friday Harbor

        Trump-crony Paolo Zampolli is no “Brazilian playboy” but another scion of inherited wealth who set himself up in the “modeling agency” racket, sex-trafficking young women to the Trump-Epstein clique in NYC. Zampolli was Melania’s H1-B sponsor and made her “introduction” to Trump. Zampolli has held various B.S. appointments in both Trump administrations, including the board of the Kennedy Center.

        Amanda Ungaro was brought to the U.S. at 16 from Brazil as a “model” on Epstein’s Lolita Express by Epstein and his procurer Jean-Luc Brunel, later another alleged prison suicide. Zampolli fathered a child out of wedlock with Ungaro he but finessed her immigration status by convincing the Prime Minister of Grenada to appoint her as a UN ambassador at the ripe age of 24. She was a “regular” at Mar-a-Lago and the White House into 2023.

        Ungaro eventually tired of the exploitive and abusive relationship and moved back to Brazil, where she married a plastic surgeon with a practice in Florida. She sued for custody of her son with Zampolli but couldn’t appear after Florida authorities arrested her last June on humbug medical practice charges and then released her to ICE, where she spent three months under their tender mercies in various sub-standard lock-ups.

        She tells her story to El Paìs today (not paywalled):

        https://english.elpais.com/usa/2026-04-12/amanda-ungaro-from-sharing-soirees-with-the-trumps-to-being-deported-by-ice.html

        1. Matthew

          Thanks for catching us up. Again, if Trumpco connived to get her deported because she was proving inconvenient. . . may they burn in hell for it now.

    4. Catrina

      The tweet you were referring to comes from an opinion piece in the Washington Post written by Marc Theissen, a speechwriter for George Bush Jr. Thiessen advocated for the use of waterboarding, claiming it wasn’t torture. (You just have to wonder why the Washington Post would print something so vile.) Here’s the excerpted part of his piece:

      Fourth, carry out a final barrage of leadership strikes, eliminating the Iranian officials who had been spared for the purpose of negotiations. Iran’s leaders must be made to understand that their lives literally depend on reaching a negotiated settlement to Trump’s liking. If they refuse to do so, they will be killed.

      1. chris

        That is so awful. I wonder how far that kind of thing goes… the US gives the Iranians the ultimatum, the Iranians decline and then are murdered. The US, victorious, leaves the room and then are murdered by Israeli agents. The Israeli agents, are then murdered by Pakistani forces. The Pakistanis are then challenged by the Chinese…

        I wonder if this group of elites would ever accept peace. Under any terms.

  3. Ignacio

    European airport managers are saying they will “run out of jet fuel if Hormuz does not reopen in 3 weeks” and that there are already problems in few airports. Kerosene distributors have started to play pricing games Tourism will be hit hard this summer. Article in Spanish.

    1. DJG, Reality Czar

      Ignacio: Here in Italy, Milano Linate, Bologna, Treviso (small), and Venice. I also read a report of problems at Brindisi.

      https://www.lasicilia.it/news/economia/3029699/carburante-aereo-razionato-in-4-aeroporti-italiani-cosa-sta-succedendo-e-cosa-rischiamo-se-finisce-il-jet-fuel.html

      Click on language changer to get la versione in inglese.

      Paragraph from the English that explains a little too much (that is, mismanagement of the economy, che sorpresa!):

      Why Italy is more exposed than it seems

      The continent has lost part of its refining capacity over the years and, in the case of aviation fuel, has become more dependent on imports. According to IATA data, Europe imports about 30% of the aviation fuel it consumes. As long as the global market functions, this dependence remains manageable. However, when one of the main global energy arteries gets clogged, the “just in time” model reveals all its vulnerabilities.

      “As long as the global market functions,” that’s some joke from the department of economics, eh?

      1. ambrit

        “As long as the global market functions,” that’s some joke from the department of economics, eh?
        It’s traditional Economics Thinking: “First, assume a strait opener…”

  6. Vidimi

    It’s hard to take Iran seriously when they clearly stated early on that they were done talking only for them to send huge delegations to meet with people clearly mocking them.

    Their goals of future security seem to have been downscaled to tolling Hormuz.

    1. OnceWere

      The Iranians are never going to be in a position to land an army on the American coast, march to Washington, and burn the White House to the ground. So refusing point-blank to talk under any circumstances is hardly a serious option. To a neutral observer it reflects far more poorly on the Americans that they bring a clown car to a serious negotiation than it does on the Iranians. And confronted with the clown car, the Iranians walked out. What more do you expect from them ?

      1. vidimi

        Israel is still pounding Lebanon and genociding the Palestinians. Still plenty of targets in Israel. Exacting costs on the warmakers should be one of the most obvious ways to prevent that such an attack ever happens again. I’ve mentioned 4- and 5-star hotels before and that’s an escalation they can afford. War financiers like the Adelsons should not have any assets left in Iranian missile range. Unless, of course, their stocks of missiles or launchers are degraded, in which case they may as well wave the white flag. Israel has good history with those anyway.

        2. OnceWere

          Only the US can prevent the Israelis from genociding the Palestinians or the Shi’a in Lebanon. The Iranians certainly can’t do that alone so long as the US supports Israel unreservedly. There’s no real reason to believe that a campaign of missile strikes against hotels would be any more effective at making Israel change course than the missile strikes that Iran has already hit Israel with. It’s the mirror image of the totally debunked theory that Russian billionaires would force Putin to leave Ukraine in order to recover their sanctioned Western assets.

    2. Carolinian

      Well they are dealing with two countries that possess nuclear weapons and have leaders (and in the Israeli case a public) that are anything but rational. Perhaps neither of those leaders would really use nukes and allegedly China and/or Russia have threatened Israel with the same should they ever go there.

      But those leaders and especially Netanyahu are threatening to nuke the world economy which is something that would also badly hurt Iran not to mention billions of innocent people.

      The Iranians have escalation dominance but it is an escalation that will hurt them as well as they seek to preserve their country’s existence.

        1. ambrit

          America put them there with decades of sanctions. Talk about unexpected outcomes.
          Now with Dear Leaders temper tantrum closing of the Strait of Hormuz from the other side, the World Economy is well and truly damaged.
          Time to go long on Localism.
          Stay safe.

          1. Yalt

            America put them there with decades of sanctions. Talk about unexpected outcomes.

            Hegel just added a chapter to “Phenomenology of Spirit” and this time it isn’t a parable.

      2. hereweare

        Iran survived the Iran-Iraq war, despite around 200,000 deaths. Of course they know standing up to the enemy will hurt them too, but I think they’ve more stomach for it, particularly the leadership and IRGC.

      3. Mikel

        “Perhaps neither of those leaders would really use nukes and allegedly China and/or Russia have threatened Israel with the same should they ever go there.”

        If that were remotely true, Israel would already have been moving with more caution in the region and less genocidal fervor.

    3. Yves Smith Post author

      Iran is bringing the world economy to its knees and has pretty much destroyed all US bases across the Middle East and you say they are not serious? Have you lost your mind? Have you NO sense of proportion?

      1. This is how grown up countries negotiate. Russia has also sent very large teams to negotiate with the US. If you read Japan is #1, Japan FAMOUSLY sent huge expert teams to negotiate with the US, and very successfully used that to run rings around the US. This is a a bare minimum a messaging move to the world ex the belligerents.

      2. This trip was a great big perk for everyone who went. They get out of Iran, which I have to think is not easy given Iran’s pariah statues, and get to stay in the best hotel in Ialamabad and get some very good grub.

      1. vidimi

        Sadly, these talks will have done nothing to stop the world’s economy from going belly up and the US and Israel should bear most of the responsibility for that, so when you say that Iran is bringing it to its knees, it shows the hopelessness of whatever messaging Iran wants to get out to the world that is about to feel the pain.

        If any country not previously aligned with Iran changes its stance after these negotiations, it would prove that I am very wrong about this but it seems to me that even domestically they come at a cost as the public was against it.

        I also think Russia is wasting its time. What have their negotiations achieved except for Putin lamenting Minsk or Alaska or Valdai? I would point at India’s recent realignment as evidence that whatever it was didn’t work.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          Iran is not out to save the world economy. Iran is out to save Iran. I don’t understand how you don’t perceive the stakes. Iran AT THE MARGIN loses nothing by comporting itself well, as much as for its sense of amour propre and self respect as for the peanut gallery.

          If the rest of the world cannot figure out what is in its best interest, too bad for them. This is Darwin Awards on a mass scale.

          1. vidimi

            Apologies for frustration. My confusion is earnest.

            Of course Iran should be trying to save itself, and I don’t understand how these talks, with no possible positive expectations, could have furthered those goals.

            I was under the impression that Iran was winning militarily. US assets in the region have been devastated and the US and Israel were running out of offensive and defensive weapons. On top of that, Israel caught itself in a quagmire in Lebanon. The thing to do in this situation would seem to me to be press the advantage, not cease fire.

            Trump’s threat to nuke Iran, if credible, was a death threat to the global economy, not to Iran, which allegedly had prepared for that. Was I misinformed and Iran was really getting pounded into submission militarily? Was it Iran, and not the US, which was running out of munitions?

            1. David in Friday Harbor

              Diplomacy is quite important to the Chinese, who are the Real-Party-in-Interest here.

              Before China can convince the world to turn their backs on the U.S. economy they must conclusively demonstrate American intransigence and perfidy.

              JD Vance stepping out to take a call from Nut-n’yahoo while Trump literally watched a UFC cage match might do the trick, while the Iranians demonstrated their seriousness.

            2. danpaco

              Iran is currently winning against the US in the region but is Iran winning against the other countries in the region and are they winning in vs Israel? To steal Mitzrahi’s thesis, Iran is fighting a three front war and the above is the 3 fronts.
              To beat Israel or at least beat back Israel, Iran needs to peel off Gulf and European allies of Isreal. Accepting a ceasefire currently helps in doing that by reminding them who really is the belligerent power in the middle east, who is destroying their economies and who is ethnic cleansing southern Lebanon. Look at what Spain has been openly saying lately about Israel, other Asian nations setting up embassies in Iran to set up their own agreements and other European countries now talking directly with Iran. I would say their strategy is working and accepting a ceasefire currently helps their third front in the war.

            3. jonboinAR

              As Yves and others said, Iran is showing publicly in this to be the adult, behaving with diplomatic propriety.

        2. Kouros

          As Putin said, and I paraphrase: “What is the point of a world without Iran in it, from an Iranian perspective…?!”

          1. hk

            Better that I betray the world than the world betray me….

            Spoken by a famous hero in chaotic times.

  7. bertl

    “Assuming Trump believes what he wrote above…”

    I find it hared to believe that Trumps believes anything he says, keys into his mobile, or any thought which may drift randomly through his head. If he does, he’s either the world’s biggest fool or he’s just bloody mad and needs a brain replacement from a gnat, or somesuch, help him cope a little better with a complex world.

    1. hereweare

      I think the question’s a bit beside the point. I watched a documentary, The Apprentice, about Trump being mentored by mafia-adjacent lawyer Roy Cohn, in which it was clear the main lesson was to attack, hard, above the belt and below. Beliefs didn’t come into it. At all.

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      The reason he might is the bit about the mines makes him look even more stoopid than usual. And as we pointed out yesterday, General Jack Keane has been blathering on in a similar vein.

      1. ChiGal

        regarding who believes what, MSM kept emphasizing that these were “direct” talks.

        did anyone see a picture of Vance and the Iranians together? I could only find each shown with the Pakistani prime minister separately, never together.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          Professor Marandi was part of the big team but doing media. so he has not been well briefed on what happened. I am sure he will have a LOT to say after he catches up with those who were in the room with the Americans

          1. vidimi

            I hope Marandi explains what Iran’s expectations of the talks was and why they went for my personal edification

            1. Mikel

              Iran’s not a dictatorship. Internally, they have competing views to negotiate and manage – just like the majority of the rest of the world.

              1. vidimi

                I have never heard of a state sending a negotiating delegation with competing views. It would be good for them to negotiate with themselves first.

    3. Samuel Conner

      My interpretation is that DJT’s utterances, verbal and text, are simply whatever he thinks will be rhetorically useful to himself in the moment, as he faces the circumstances of the moment. So they change as circumstances change, and they change as his state of mind changes.

      Per Michael Wolff, it is pointless to try to discern any coherent or consistent policy.

    4. Lefty Godot

      Are we sure there aren’t other people keying in some of those spewings? It feels like there have been some inconsistencies in the style and grammar. Or maybe he just has Multiple Personality Disorder at this point, along with his other mental illnesses.

      1. Jonathan King

        Wasn’t it here that someone pointed out how the “Praise Be to Allah” email resembled Trump’s style much less than it did that of his CommsDir, the loathsome Steven Cheung? I bought that straightaway.

    1. The Rev Kev

      At $2.5 billion per destroyer, that is a pretty lousy Return On Investment when a mine only costs a coupla thousand. This is a job for – wait for it – the Little Crappy Ships. But last I heard they were still in Singapore or somewhere like that.

    2. ChrisFromGA

      Yes, Taco is clearly lying, yet again. You need minesweepers, or this becomes a mythbusters episode (hey, what happens when I shoot one of those mines with an M-50?)

    3. John k

      Why not? I’m not the first to say this, but us targets are doing a bang-up job of destroying those pesky Iranian drones and missiles. Maybe Saudi pumping stations will wipe out a few more

    4. Who Cares

      They didn’t send in the Burkes for minesweeping. They sent them in for mine detection, as the Burke class is equipped with a specialized forward looking sonar, about 1 mile range, for mine and other small object detection.
      Basically the destroyers were sent in to see if Iran was bluffing. And while people might disapprove of the timing it was executed at the correct moment. As long as the ships wouldn’t attack Iran they aren’t violating the declared ceasefire. As long as they stay in the Omani territorial waters they aren’t invading Iran, which is useful since the area that Iran suggested ships stay out of encompasses part of Omani territorial waters. Doing it during the negotiations further reduces the likelihood that Iran attacks the destroyers since that would allow the USA delegation to claim Iran wasn’t serious and walk out stating Iran was using the negotiations to backstab USA (every accusation being a confession).

      Doing it so publicly and deliberately during the start of the negotiations have been a slap in the face of the Iranian delegation but it you don’t think negotiations are going to get you anywhere you might as well use them to gather information. And use it as a distraction from the clown show sent by your side.
      Do note that whoever had this stroke of genius did not consider that Iran can just add mines.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        First, the waters in the Strait of Hormuz are so murky and have so much clutter that Larry Wilkerson, who is an expert in the region, says subs could be 200 meters apart and not detect each other. So I doubt this forward looking sonar is adequate to the task.

        Iran has released the audio exchange:

        Also see:

        And Iran and Oman apparently have an understanding. Oman may have delegated authority to Iran.

        1. Polar Socialist

          The system Who Cares is talking about is a Kingfisher Small Object Avoidance System, which basically turns the vessel’s ASW sonar into a high resolution, forward-looking sonar that in good noise conditions can detect some types of mines. And naturally the vessel can’t detect submarines or much anything else while the Kingfisher is engaged.

          It’s better than nothing, but I’m thinking US Navy either must have been pretty sure there are no Iranian mines to send a $2.5 billion ship to “test the waters”. Or the destroyers did not actually reach the area assumed to be mined, they just ventured far enough to enable US to claim they were there.

          It’s 104 miles long waterway, and if Iranians mined any of it, the minefield is likely to be only a 10 or so miles deep in the narrowest point. Hugging the coast of Oman one can go 20-30 miles deep into the Straits and yet not be in any danger.

        2. Who Cares

          And Iran and Oman apparently have an understanding. Oman may have delegated authority to Iran.

          They have, Oman as a signatory to the UNCLOS treaty cannot ask a toll or block passage for non hostile ships due to the free transit passage regime embedded in the treaty. Granted it is also considered part of customary international law (the unwritten rules) but I doubt that Iran at the moment is willing to follow those.
          Iran is the enforcer and it wouldn’t surprise me that Oman would get not a single dime of the tolls but reparations for the fact that Iran is violating their borders or something like that. Distinction without a difference and everyone knows it but as long as it fulfills the legalities people will pretend since it is cheaper then the alternative.

          1. Ben Joseph

            Maybe I’m missing something, but why would one mine a strait that one plans on tolling for the safe passage of non-belligerents?

            1. Yalt

              For the same reason they put barriers on the turnpike to force the cars to go through the tollbooths. (OK, admittedly they don’t use exploding barriers.) The announcement of the mines was coupled with the distribution of a map of a new safe route through the Strait close to the Iranian shore.

              1. Ben Joseph

                So like Mario cart? Maybe I am overestimating the standard width of a bidirectional shipping channel, but it seems plenty narrow without exploding speed bumps on the edges.

  9. The Rev Kev

    Trump suggesting a naval blockade of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz? He can’t fool me. I know exactly what he is up to. Those US Navy ships will intercept those tanker alright but then they will charge those ships a Trump Toll in order to continue their voyage. Payment only in US dollars. He is still riled that Iran is getting their own toll and him getting no cut of the profits.

    1. IEL

      When piracy by the American Navy is not only plausible but perhaps the least bad escape from our current situation, you know things are bad.

    2. hereweare

      See this trocial:
      https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116391830634836370ee
      Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. … I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.

      1. Ben Panga

        I thought this would be coming.

        So basically ships going to China, and India and a few more. And Trump is gonna hijack them. Which will fix his problem that no oil is getting out of the Gulf somehow. And it will somehow lower oil prices.

        I’m sure this will work out well /s

        2. hereweare

          It fixes the problem of ships using the Strait being restricted to those permitted by Iran. Does Trump think further than that?

        3. Yves Smith Post author

          So now the US proposes to blow up tankers and cargo ships.

          This means NO traffic through the Strait at all and just reinforces Iran’s control, even if Iran doesn’t get to monetize it again for a while.

          Mr. Market will lose his mind. I think Trump will have to TACO on this one in two weeks at the very outside.

          I think Xi also cancels the summit.

          1. ambrit

            Now would also be the perfect time for Russia to mount a Spring Offensive in the Ukraine. Nothing showy but speed up the tempo a bit. Start with a massive missile barrage on public buildings and infrastructure in Kiev and Lvov. Then on to Odessa. Russia should know now that Kiev will never fully capitulate. Remove the import and export capabilities of the Port of Odessa from the Ukraine economy and the goal of a neutered Ukraine is halfway done.

          2. InquiringMind

            Yes – will the US interdict and impound a China-flagged tanker? What if that tanker has a Chinese naval escort?

            We already know that the Russians have a free pass through US naval blockades (of Cuba)

            It has to be blindingly obvious that Trump is all bluff and no high cards.

            1. bob

              They’re going to stop a ship full of Chinese energy? And China isn’t going to have an issue with that…

            2. jsn

              IIRC, the Chinese have been showing off some tricked out cargo containers full of anti-ship missiles. The look like ordinary cargo containers.

  10. hereweare

    Boris Johnson: Trump has made a big mistake in Iran – Unherd
    Boris Johnson has claimed that Donald Trump “has made a big mistake in Iran”. Speaking to Italian newspaper la Repubblica, the former British prime minister said, “I don’t think it was sensible to attack Iran in the way that Israel and America did,” adding: “There’s no doubt that this is a mess, right? I don’t understand how the Pentagon thought they could do this.”

    Nonetheless, he goes on:

    Despite his criticism of the strikes on Iran which began on 28 February and killed senior regime figures including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Johnson stressed that the UK and other European countries should “help America get out of the mess”. He said to la Repubblica that “our team captain, Trump, has made a big mistake, right? And what does the team do? Does the team tell the team captain, ‘go to hell, we have nothing to do with you’? Or does it try to help solve the problem?”

    1. The Rev Kev

      The way that I think of it is like this. A somewhat friend goes to a bar in a bad end of town and picks a fight with a coupla bikers. After getting his face punched in, he then comes to you demands you and all his other ‘friends’ go back to that bar to help him out. Yeah, nah!

      Would you believe that we have an Oz ex-Prime Minister that is demanding that we go all in and send everything that we have to Trump to help him out in Iran. But he always was a neocon war monger-

      https://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/tony-abbott-urges-australia-to-join-us-forces-in-destroying-iranian-war-machine/news-story/c31a96f718ab562715729779c4c3806d

      1. Huey

        “After getting his face punched in, he then comes to you demands you and all his other ‘friends’ go back to that bar to help him out.”

        Worse than that, while demanding this, he insists your ‘help’ was never worthwhile to begin with. Then, before you can agree to help him, he suddenly says he doesn’t need you, because the chinese friend he isolated you from is going to be on his side. Keep in mind, all of this is from the same friend that convinced you to sign up for a ponzi scheme and regularly insults you publicly.

              1. ambrit

                Since The Epstein Files are in play, for some definition of ‘play,’ tonight’s menu will include, Nasty Chicken Surprise, courtesy of the “boys” on the street corner.

    2. Psalamanazar

      Evidently the team seeks to help solve the problem by asking him to step aside in favour of someone who doesn’t keep making unsporting remarks. Please don’t mistake Johnson for someone who is at all at home with what is and isn’t cricket.

  11. Louis Fyne

    >>>Nima cites a CNN report that China has been arming Iran. Henningsen believes China like Russia has been preparing for the worst.

    That CNN report relied on three ***anonymous sources*** and smells more like anti-China astroturfed disinformation (according to the anonymous birds chirping in the backyard).

    If anyone is going to arm Iran, it’s Russia. Russia is already sanctioned; shares a border with Iran (Caspian Sea); and has a direct interest in not allowing a failed state on its border. and there has been a massive influx of Russian cargo ships transiting the Caspian after the pause started (presumably foodstuffs/commercial widgets, but you never know what else)

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Alastair Crooke at least sort of confirmed that. He said Iran purchased an enormous number of decoys of all sorts from China. So this is not a fabrication.]

      And China is believed to have been sending Iran defensive kit:

      1. The Rev Kev

        I was listening to an interview with Stanislav Krapivnik today and he mentioned that China also sold them decoys that came with their own heaters. To an attacker, they would look real as they are giving off their own heat signatures. How cunning is that.

        Just now saw in the updated Iran post that this has been mentioned elsewhere.

        1. XXYY

          At what point does the decoy cost the same or more than the real thing?

          I’ve never really understood the point of missile decoys. It seems like there isn’t much difference from a real missile except the presence or absence of the explosive warhead. Might as well just launch an additional real missile and if it gets through so much the better.

          I suppose there might be cases where the number of real missiles is limited by treaty or by technological limitations.

          1. turtle

            I doubt that the decoys cost anywhere near the same amount as real weaponry. To use your example, even if missile decoys had their bodies made out of the same material as the real thing (which I doubt), they could skip not only the warhead but also the engine and fuel. Basically an empty hunk of metal. However, I doubt that they’re even made of metal. Check out this video that purportedly (who knows with AI these days) shows the current(?) Chinese decoys – they’re inflatable plastic pieces. In other words, a bouncy castle in the shape of whatever weapons system you want:

            https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3BhVAaG_igs

            I also saw a photo of the use of decoys going back as far as WWI? It showed 4 soldiers lifting a “tank” a couple feet off the ground, without struggling.

        2. vao

          Rumour has it that Serbs used a wide range of decoys, some “enhanced” with consumer-grade microwave-ovens rigged to be turned on with an open door. The signals thus emitted were picked up by NATO planes, which dutifully proceeded to bomb the mockups — sometimes repeatedly.

    2. Rui

      There are 2 million Russian speaking people in Israel and Putin is a zionist, as said so repeatedly. I find it very hard to belief the same Russia will help Iran destroy Israel.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        Iran is on the Caspian Sea,

        Having Iran as a failed state is a MUCH bigger problem to Russia than the Russians in Israel (some of whom I suspect have left, I am told the land border into Egypt is very very backed up due to Israelis trying to leave and Israel blocking that out of Ben Gurion).

      2. Sibiriak

        Rui: “Putin is a zionist, as said so repeatedly”
        ———————————————————————————
        [Expunged because AI]

        1. vidimi

          if you define zionist as simply believing that a Jewish state should exist, then I would imagine Putin would call himself one.
          But I harbour no illusions that Putin won’t back Iran over Israel in this existential deathmatch.

        2. Huey

          Did you have to use AI? A cursory, normal web search and/or a request for Rui’s source would have sufficed, no?

          Reading an AI summary is totally useless. Not only is it biased but it makes stuff up. It’s like reading Barak Ravid, only at least his lies serve an obvious purpose.

        3. bertl

          Putin has called Israel a “special state” for Russia, largely because it is home to approximately 1.5 million Russian-speaking citizens. In 2011, he famously described Israel as “practically a Russian-speaking country” and part of the “Russian world.”

          Which is how Russia saw the people of the Donbass under attack after the US and UK backed coup in February 2014, and why the Russians have fought so long and hard to secure the freedom of Eastern Ukraine and to incorporate it into the Russian Federation after the Western powers failed in their obligations to ensure the terms of the Minsk agreements were respected by the Ukrainian regime. In the light of this, the fact that he has made the comparison between Gaza and the German siege and Finnish blockade of Leningrad indicates a significant shift in his government’s stance towards Israel – and, presumably, it’s enablers.

    1. Huey

      Thank you so much, as always, Yves. Your consistently high-quality work (from these new, daily posts to your stewardship of this site) can’t be applauded enough.

      Being in a somewhat better financial position at the moment, I am very much looking forward to the next fundraiser and the opportunity to enjoy and support NC for many moons to come.

  13. steelyman

    Re the X post about Saudi Arabia saying “it needs no more strait of Hormuz”.

    Well, apart from the pumping station vulnerability mentioned by Stanislav Krapivnik, how does the Saudi leadership imagine those several million barrels per day reach their final destinations after being loaded onto large tankers at the two major tanker terminals located in the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

    Correct me if I’m wrong but wouldn’t all those tankers now be subject to attack by the Ansarallah missile forces who control the southern Red Sea choke point aka Bab El-Mandeb Strait? What’s to stop Ansarallah following the IRGC play book and imposing a $2 Million toll there as well?

    1. Rui

      As someone said in the comments, does that pipe line also transport fertilizers, helium, LNG, and even half of Saudi Arabia previous oil output?
      I think the point is that it wasn’t out for long after the attack but it has been pointed on this site often how that oil duct only manages a small part of Saudi Arabia previous output.

      1. vao

        “As someone said in the comments, does that pipe line also transport fertilizers, helium, LNG, and even half of Saudi Arabia previous oil output?”

        No fertilizers, helium, sulphur, or other by- and derived products. Those are entirely shut off.

        However, that pipeline has a capacity of 7m bpd, which corresponds pretty exactly to the throughput for the entirey of oil exports of Saudi Arabia.

        The big issue is that the port at which the pipeline ends only has the capacity to load about 2.5m bpd onto tankers. Since storage capacity is inevitably limited as well, this means Saudi Arabia can (if the Red Sea remains quiet) divert a substantial part (about 36%) of its exports through that outlet — but cannot use it to replace the infrastructure on the Persian Gulf.

            1. Who Cares

              The Houthis can only stop ships that want to go to Asia or the east coast of Africa via the direct route, unless they go after the terminal, pumping stations, or pipelines.

              For some reason everyone seems to forget there is a canal that can handle Suez max tankers (~1 million barrels max) and a pipeline with a ~2 million barrels per day capacity if you need to partially/completely unload a U/VLCC so it can cross the canal.

          2. Revenant

            But a substantial proportion of the Red Sea pipeline crude is tied up in domestic refining requirements so if they have increased throughout to 5m exported barrels per day, they probably cannot push it any higher without starving domestic needs (denying crude to refiners and/or exporting refined products).

  14. sfglossolalia

    I do love that Trump dumped the problem in Vance’s lap – allegedly one of the few voices in the administration cautioning against the war in the first place – while he (Trump) attended a UFC fight.

  15. DJG, Reality Czar

    Observations:

    —It is impossible to take the U S of A seriously because Vance walked after twenty-four hours. Yes, the Iranians set a condition. Yet any fruitful talks would have to go on for weeks. Everyone knows this, given the disastrous relations that the U S A has had with Iran for more than seventy years.
    —So instead of Vance traipsing off, a serious negotiating team should have been left behind by him to continue to come to an agreement to continue.
    —Pace vidimi, above: The Iranians don’t come out of this dustup compromised. As Yves Smith points out repeatedly regarding the Russians, the Iranians have to maintain and to continue to maintain credibility with the “Global South.” Going to talks does so.
    —The destroyer in the Straits of Hormuz, which almost surely had no ability to disable a mine, was an attempt to provoke. As ever, the U S of A comes off as a lame-ass bully. Here’s a hint: After watching some video clips of Italian commentators this a.m., I will report that you may be shocked, shocked, I tell you, to find out that U.S. lame-assery is the subject of much talk in Italy. And not complimentary.
    —As many others have pointed out, a number of governments, in particular, U.S., U.K., and Germany have only war as a policy. When war is the only policy provision, there will be wars outside and inside the country. Yes, inside, too.
    —I am reading people who want to impeach Trump. Impeachment is political and is basically the indictment. Someone better be putting together a better case than the whispers of aggrieved Ukie nationalist Vindman and the disappearing Eric Ciaramella. It is removal — the trial, conviction, and removal — that matters.
    —More figures in the U.S. government than Trump have to go. Time for a special prosecutor. Will the Democratic Party come out in favor of a special prosecutor? Come on, applying the tattered remnants of the law may consequences…

    1. Jen

      Re impeachment:
      Get rid of Trump, you get Vance
      Get rid of Vance you get speaker of the house Mike Johnson
      At least until November or rather January of 2027…maybe

      1. ChrisFromGA

        “Milk Carton” Mike could be the first US President who couldn’t be identified in a police lineup.

        1. Wukchumni

          Sure, I can see it, mild mannered Clark Kent tries to slip into a phonebooth to change into character, but this is the 21st century and there aren’t any.

      2. Oregon Lawhobbit

        Well….depends on how quickly Vance names his own Veep.

        And if he names Trump as his Veep, would you really want to get rid of Vance…? ;-)

      3. .Tom

        2/3 vote in the Senate needed to convict.

        Even with an obviously raving lunatic doing enormous harm to American people, businesses and national interest there’s no chance.

        We will never get a president more evidently deserving of impeachment and conviction but it won’t happen. That’s where our politics is.

        1. ISL

          $10 gasoline and only on odd days and I think congress will get off its keister (so not yet). We are at $5.30-6.00 a gallon in California (diesel is close to $8), and gas stations seem much emptier than normal these days. And there is the backup of a well-armed, hungry population as farmers skip this season’s planting. Given the Trumpian philosophy, they will skip on meals/pay for the troops to maintain stability.

          1. Wukchumni

            A nationwide price per gallon of $7.77 on the gas slot machines would hit the ‘jackpot’, i’m thinking.

            1. The Rev Kev

              $6.66 would be more Satanic I reckon. Maybe Trump could get the price of gas up to $17.76 just in time for Independence day.

                    2. wilroncanada

                      Wuk
                      That’s a Canadian candy. Sure you don’t mean M&M’s, mmmm? Like taking candy from a Bibi.

            2. Wukchumni

              p.s.

              Maybe it isn’t so much the price, but availability.

              It almost seems like a given that a new and improved gas shortage is looming at the pumps, but thanks to our extensive public transport systems in every major city, that will pick up the slack for those running on empty.

              1. ISL

                perhaps the rickshaw will make a return in lieue of mass transit? Hey Uber – brilliant idea for you!

                1. tegnost

                  Theres an extremely irritating amazon commercial I keep seeing, garys guitars did a good segment on it here…
                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30mNE1lYS-0

                  At the end as an expression of all the extra money you’ll supposedly make maybe you get some horses?
                  I’d say these days make sure you get a male and a female because hoses might come back into vogue real soon…

              2. The Rev Kev

                Seems to me that there are two sorts of shortages. The first one is where what you want to get is hard to get and expensive as hell when you do find it. The second type is where you cannot find something no matter the price nor how much you are willing to pay. It is simply not there.

          3. ClarkT

            In Nashville, 87 octane has held at $3.999 all week, diesel at $5.499. There is resistance at the (unrounded) 4-handle but obviously it’s not going to last. [I don’t know what the convention is when reporting gas prices–do you round up for the 9/10ths of a penny, so I should say gas is $4.00?]

            One oddity is that the prices in the ‘rich’ parts of town always were 10-to-20-cents higher, but this differential has mostly disappeared. I have no explanation for this other than maybe even Lexus drivers are willing to travel an extra mile or two for cheaper gas.

            It’s a beautiful albeit too warm early spring day here, 70s, breezy. I expected a lot of traffic at my local car wash, but most bays were empty. It’s usually hopping when it’s sunny out. Are people skimping on the $2.50-4.00 it costs to spray the pollen off their vehicles?

            I am somewhat enbubbled, but I don’t see any evidence of panic yet. People do not understand what is coming.

            1. ambrit

              It’s the same here down by the Gulf Coast. People are sleepwalking into disaster.
              I also do not see any preparations being made at the City or State levels yet. Forget about the Federal level. I think that the Feds might be preparing to “manage” the civil disruptions ahead. Is ICE hiring?

    2. vidimi

      setting preconditions for talks and going anyway when none of those preconditions are met is not an exercise in credibility. Lebanon under constant attack. Assets still frozen. US claiming it sent ships through Hormuz. The list of humiliations is long and I am forgetting many. Market manipulation was an obvious reason why the US wanted to go through with this charade, but why Iran?

      Besides, the nations of the world were almost unanimous in condemning Iran at the UN a month ago without mentioning their attackers.

      I no longer buy this argument that Iran and Russia need to save face with the global south by continuing negotiations with their assassins. It makes them look weak, not reasonable, and I don’t understand whom and why they would want to convince of this.

      1. expr

        I recall seeing somewhere (most likely here) that China pushed Iran to do this since tha alternative was Trump trying to obliterate Iran and Iran obliterating everything around the Persian Gulf, which would have seriously impacted China for a long time.

        1. vidimi

          but isn’t Trump still going to try to obliterate Iran or do you think he has changed his mind, now that an agreement has definitely not been reached?

          I don’t think China are hopeless naifs but maybe they are.

          1. ilsm

            Trump, Hegseth, dragged out of retirement Air Guard 3star Caine consider “obliterate” as the pinnacle of national strategy.

            Pray for peace.

        1. vidimi

          You will have to explain to me as if I’m 5 how Iran comes away with an enhanced status from this. Maybe Pakistan, who just sent fighters to Saudi, will now take Iran’s side when Iran launches retaliatory attacks against Saudi infrastructure.

          it would have been ironic if Israel had targeted the negotiating team upon them arriving back in Iran.

          1. paul

            They acted as a nation should, sent a serious delegation in contrast to the counterparty. They retired from the negotiations with no concessions.
            They neither gained or lost anything but certainly displayed a certain courage and dignity in attending.

            Pakistan has to stay pals with Iran too.

            Ironic is not a word I would use to describe the scenario you described.

          2. OnceWere

            I think we might be simply talking from incompatible frames of reference, because I’m tempted to ask you to explain to me as if I’m 5 how Iran comes away with reduced status from this. I always feel like a blind man trying to understand colour when I encounter the viewpoint that anything less than, speaking figuratively, publicly spitting in the face of your enemy at every possible opportunity, is an inexcusable demonstration of weakness.

            1. vidimi

              credibility comes from doing what you said you would do, so when Iran says they would not negotiate but do anyway – with no changes from the enemy to warrant it – it is a loss of credibility and a signaling of serious war fatigue.

              1. ChiGal

                or a sign of strength – able to afford a gesture to help Trump save face which he was sure to eff up.

                again, there were no pictures of Vance and the Iranians together. does anyone think they actually met face to face? I won’t until I see them together in a photo op. also, Iran stuck to their negotiating point as well as the amount of time they were willing to give this: one day.

              2. Christopher Mann

                First things first: stop strawmanning. Iran didn’t say they would never, ever, ever speak to the US ever again for all of eternity. They said at the time, ” we do not intend to negotiate”.

                They didn’t negotiate anything. They laid out their preconditions and the US failed to meet them. Did you see the photographs and personal belongings of the schoolgirls murdered by America that the Iranians brought with them? Do these people look like they lack credibility?

                These talks also provide an opportunity for the US to make mistakes in an arena that the Iranians are masters off. They destroyed the US with the optics. They turned up with heavy diplomatic hitters and made the US look like unserious amateurs. Third parties will see Iran as a serious country that they can do business with, while all the time the US kept stepping on rakes.

                I could go on but fear you may not be acting in good faith and I’m just wasting my time.

              3. Will

                If Iran agreeing to meet is a sign of weakness and “serious war fatigue“, then we’ll know soon enough from real world actions whether you are correct. When is your prediction for Iran’s surrender?

                1. vidimi

                  Iran won’t surrender.

                  But I predict that Trumpland will see it as weakness and will now seriously escalate. Trumpland doesn’t understand diplomacy only power. The war’s dimensions will be increased instead of contained.

              4. Kouros

                Sorry mate, but it was the US that asked for unconditional surrender, threatened to civilisational obliteration, etc. to just go for negotiations in less than 12 hours. And it is obvious by now for everyone that the US lies. The postring with the two ships transiting it was such a childlish display, just to retreat with their tails between their legs…

              5. Jeff W

                “with no changes from the enemy to warrant it”

                Didn’t President Trump at the eleventh hour of his “civilization-dying” deadline say that Iran’s 10-point plan was “a workable basis to negotiate”? I’m sure the Iranians did not give that much credence but that, to me, would be a sufficient change to warrant seeing, by means of talks in Islamabad, if there was anything to negotiate about.

          3. Polar Socialist

            Or, and this is just a WAG, Iran send so heavy a team to Pakistan to negotiate with the Pakistanis and meeting with US delegation was a mere sideshow predetermined to fail anyway.

            Maybe, just maybe, Pakistanis are now in Saudi-Arabia to ensure that when the hostilities eventually reignite, Saudi-Arabia stays neutral and the US bases there will stay unoccupied.

            Maybe, just maybe, what is going on in the back rooms is the new security arrangement for the Persian Gulf region, guaranteed by the only Muslim nuclear power.

      3. pjay

        – “setting preconditions for talks and going anyway when none of those preconditions are met is not an exercise in credibility.”

        I would think hanging around when the preconditions were rejected would be worse for one’s credibility.

        I agree that it is frustrating to watch the US playing these games. Sending destroyers through Hormuz or (even worse) having Netanyahu call during the negotiations is an insult, to be sure. But I disagree that Iran lost much by going through the motions here. However dishonest, the US would have used its “refusal to negotiate” as a propaganda talking point. But more importantly, if there was even a slim chance to avoid mutually assured destruction, it was rational to consider it. Despite Iran’s current strategic advantages in this conflict the US still has the capability to carry out massive destruction, and it is apparently willing to do so even at the expense of the global economy. It’s not like Iran can defeat the US militarily. Its hope lies in maintaining resistance until the US loses its will to fight. Given the potential costs of continued conflict, if Iran stuck to its guns about its “preconditions,” then I think this was the right decision.

        Now we see what happens next.

        1. Tom Stone

          Vance taking Bibi’s call in the midst of negotiations was clarifying, this was a Trumpian display of Dominance by Netanyahu and there will be consequences.
          One will Trump going further overboard trying to prove who is boss, another will be domestically.
          The odds of impeachment just went up significantly.

          2. John Wright

            But Israel is the USA’s “tool” in the Middle East per some commentators.

            Maybe the USA never fully read/understood the tool’s operating manual until now.

      4. ISL

        I cannot disagree with your arguments. However, I note that the only real weapon Iran has that can damage the US motherland is the Strait’s closure impact on the world economy. Does Trump (or even Netanyahoo) care about the destruction of military assets and West Asian economic assets? For Trump, it’s just a further chance to “build back better” with new, federally-subsidized versions – The Trump Destroyer, and so on (na gonna happen without rare earths, advanced steel, transformers, etc., but supply chain logistics are beyond the beltway’s capacity to understand – Fed go print Ytterbium!!).

        Although the US has unlimited escalation potential with its nuclear arsenal and B-52 carpet bombing at high (20%?) attrition rates (which Scott Ritter frequently argues to Iran against crossing the nuclear threshold – with which I disagree), but that will not save the global economy, the $10 trillion of US debt to roll-over this election year, and notably the hit on billionaires – little people matter not a whit to the Western elite. This is where Ritter’s analysis fails – he generally (not always) neglects the Clausewitzian view that the military and political are inseparable.

        And so, Iran continues to apply its major weapon – the Straits. The real pain hits as buffers deplete in the next few weeks.

        And then there is the grift – when you are making billions on the empire’s demolition, why stop? Answer: A great depression.

      5. Cardiac

        It is important to bear in mind that the Islamabad talks were announced shortly prior to what most have taken to be a nuclear war deadline. I worry too that Iran’s up-to-now-shrewd attempts to minimize civilian casualties (both at home and in the region) will leave them exposed against adversaries with no moral qualms whatsoever, but 1) true faith requires moral actions and 2) it did successfully de-escalate from the threat of nuclear annihilation while making no concessions on the ground. I cannot imagine an alternative which would have achieved the same outcome in the timeframe they had. Even if they had anticipated a Taco, there is always calm, rational Israel to contend with.

      6. 5 y 10

        A southern lebanese living in Beirut at the moment:

        “Non-stop attacks on south Lebanon, despite the Iranian claim to ensure they won’t meet the Americans before Lebanon ceasefire is implemented.

        Disgraceful unfortunately and a show of weakness that will affect Iran’s stance and posture more than it will affect Lebanon which will continue to resist and sacrifice”

        Via: https://t.me/LebUpdate/59793

    3. Carolinian

      I saw an article yesterday that said there is now a majority in the House who could vote to impeach were there a House leadership that would allow that. Of course for the Dems alone voting to impeach Trump has always been as easy as falling off a log.

      The two thirds to remove would be a steeper climb but given the growing disaster and Trump’s dubious physical and mental health he could likely be persuaded to resign.

      Trump’s rush to do terrible things–to the govt bureaucracy, to the Middle East, even to the White House itself–no doubt shows that he gets this if he has any rational thoughts at all. The clock is ticking.

      1. JohnH

        Democrats would be totally comfortable following Pelosi’s script after the 2006 election gave her a mandate to end the war in Iraq–do nothing. Let Trump twist slowly in the wind, which would help Democrats chances of winning in the next election. In addition, it wouldn’t upset the Zionist lobby and the merchants of death.

        I mean, who cares if the global economy goes to hell in a hand basket as long as Democrats take care of their puppet masters and don’t get the blame?

        1. tegnost

          All the while cashing in on the insider trading, what’s a grifter not to like about that”

        2. David J.

          I got some boilerplate from the DNCC today that pretty much made me want to gag. It’s politics as usual–they need my money–but they don’t really stand for a thing. Except to beat Republicans.

          Same old story from the late 80s onward. Talk about being impotent.

    4. Lee

      “More figures in the U.S. government than Trump have to go.”

      Mearsheimer would find it fitting to take things a bit further. The following is from a transcript of one of his recent talks linked below.

      “What is truly remarkable to me
      um as someone who is a realist who has operated in a very liberal academic and
      intellectual environment in the United States for all of my life is the extent
      to which liberals, dedicated liberals who professed to
      believe in human rights said virtually nothing
      when this genocide [in Gaza] was taking place. And it’s not only because the Israelis were
      committing a genocide that I’m shocked and people didn’t say anything in a
      fundamental way. What shocked me even more was that the United States is
      complicit in the genocide. There’s just no question about this. If we had
      Nuremberg trials, we’re not going to have them. But if we had Nurembergl like trials,
      Joe Biden and his principal lieutenants and Donald Trump and his principal
      lieutenants would be hanged. There’s no question in my mind about this. We’re talking about a genocide. We know what
      happened to all those people who executed a genocide between 1941 and 1945 in Europe. They were hanged.       (Emphasis added)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXQLRDDmU6Q

  16. Jose Oliveira

    Meanwhile all the European leaders remain terribly silent like rats in their holes and watch peacefully their continent and the rest of the world catch fire, and what a big fire. What could be worse?

      1. vao

        “Toute nation a le gouvernement qu’elle mérite” — “Every nation has the government it deserves”.

        Joseph de Maistre.

          1. vao

            Joseph de Maistre was a reactionary — in the original, historical sense of the word. With gnashing teeth I have come to recognize that in this case he may well have a point.

        3. CarlH

          This phrase always struck me as punching down. The vast majority of people have absolutely no say in what their governments get up to.

          1. Ben Joseph

            Every time I vote for Jill Stein et al, people ask why- ‘they don’t have a chance ‘ and my response is ‘that’s not my fault.’

  17. dingusansich

    This sort of dick-wagging

    Indeed, and as so often happens upon a dip in cold water, the destroyers shrank back right quick.

  18. Curious

    I’m with John Dolan (aka the WarNerd) with his quote from a Navy officer:

    “There are two types of ships in the navy, submarines and targets”

    If the US keeps pushing its Navy closer we’ll find out how true it is in practice.

  19. The Rev Kev

    ‘World Affairs
    @World_Affairs11
    BREAKING:
    🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia fully restores East-West oil pipeline, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and pumping 7,000,000 barrels per day.
    Saudi Arabia says it needs no more strait of Hormuz.’

    Yemen enters the Chat. And is playing the part of Chekov’s gun.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Pipelines are fixed targets. They can be repaired fairy quickly, but also hit again quickly.

      1. The Rev Kev

        You hit the pumping stations and that is another matter altogether – and not so easily repaired. And where are spare parts for pumping stations even made?

        1. Wukchumni

          Was watching a World At War episode, and a minuscule amount of bombs unleashed from British bombers actually hit their targets, versus now where a minuscule amount of drones and missiles miss their targets.

          It’s a whole new ballgame, and the Mudville Nine are mired in last place.

          1. Kouros

            “After Nazi armies won a string of victories across Europe in 1940, overrunning Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium and France, air power was the only option left to an isolated Britain. Strategic thinking at Bomber Command evolved rapidly from plans for attacks on Germany’s military assets to targeting her industrial capacity, which in practice meant industrial workers. Winning the war by sapping the morale of the German population through bombing became the new idée fixe, a crude attempt at social engineering on a vast scale. As Mike Davis recalls, initial discussions of singling out the mansions of the Nazi political and industrial elite were vetoed by Lord Cherwell, Churchill’s chief scientific advisor, who worried that this might prompt the Luftwaffe to hit back at the country houses of the British ruling class.

            ‘The bombing must be directed essentially against working-class houses,’ he urged, reaching for the justification that the houses of the wealthy ‘have too much space around them, and so are bound to waste bombs.’ (3) The stated aim was ‘to dehouse the German industrial worker.’ Less explicit was the belief that, when the Germans retaliated against British cities, it would cause resentment and build resolve on the Home Front for the long struggle ahead. (No-one, it seems, spotted the contradiction.) British bombers attacked Munich; in return, the Germans bombed Coventry. And so on. By 1942, Directive 22 to Bomber Command emphasized that ‘the aiming points [were] to be built-up areas, not, for instance, the dockyards or aircraft factories.’ Arthur Harris was appointed Commander in Chief of Bomber Command. In the House of Commons, Richard Stokes, an independent-minded Labour MP, asked whether the air force was being instructed to participate in ‘area bombing’ rather than precision bombing of military and essential industrial targets. He was given the brush-off. (4) Harris was later to complain about being diverted from his task by pettifogging strategic considerations, like requests to bomb vital bridges or even the rail lines to Auschwitz; in his memoirs he claimed that he would have won the war on his own if only he had been allowed to focus on bombing residential areas.

            Thousand-bomber raids were launched against Cologne and Hamburg. But Harris was fixated on destroying Berlin’s working-class neighbourhoods – ironically, the Red districts that had been most hostile to the Nazis. Frustrated by their continuing inability to create a satisfactory firestorm in Berlin, the British eventually sought a breakthrough solution in the inventive power of American industry. Under the supervision of German-Jewish architect Eric Mendelsohn, and using the combined resources of Standard Oil and the set designers of Hollywood, a replica of the slum districts of Berlin was built in the Utah desert, reproducing details right down to the typical furniture and linens favoured by the German proletariat.

            To ensure that the complex was completed on time, conscript labour was brought in from the Utah state prisons. Between May and September 1943, German Village (as it was known) was firebombed and reconstructed at least three times, demonstrating clearly the superiority of the new munition called napalm. It was, for Mike Davis, ‘like bombing Brecht.’ (5) Churchill pledged to FDR that RAF raids on Germany could deliver 900,000 dead, a million injured, and 25 million homeless. The Americans were initially leery of their British cousins’ exterminism, but Roosevelt eventually came around”

            https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/bombs-away-air-power-as-panacea/

            1. Alan Sutton

              That is a lot of profound information Mr Kouros and I have shared it widely.

              Thank you. I assume that is fine.

        3. TJBuff

          Pumps that large are not off-the-shelf items. Hit them enough times and they will run out of spares. Otherwise cut the pipeline in a dozen places with drones. When they repair, repeat.

    1. ISL

      So far, MBS (whom Trump claimed was kissing his ass in public) has not entered the war. I do not think he will, since it would then be easy for Iran to end the kingdom by actually targeting its oil fields, which would take decades if ever (damage to reservoirs) – and there is nothing Pakistan can do to prevent that – even the US could not. And Pakistan faces the same troubles the US does with ground forces.

      I imagine those aircraft are more to prevent Israeli false flag strikes.

      1. TimH

        I imagine those aircraft are more to prevent Israeli false flag strikes.

        Very interesting point. And I hope that this is the reason. It would be very helpful if Pakistan, as a third party, was able to show Isr doing this.

      2. Kouros

        But they did, providing cover to all those air tankers, radars, fighter jets, etc.? That is full participation according to UN. It is the deeds that are to be counted, not the words…

        1. ISL

          sure – but they are in a different level of soon-to-come hell as UAE. Moreover, a number of commentators are arguing that MBS is backpedaling (maybe due to the way the wind is blowing and that there is no way in hell the straits are opening for their oil without a rapprochement with Iran), or maybe because it is a great insult to brag to the world how MBS is kissing Trumps (trumpian-sized) ass.

      3. vidimi

        If Iran strikes those planes it will be at war against Pakistan, too.

        ie against 3 nuclear powers

        i really want Iran to succeed and build the foundations of a fairer world, but there’s too much copium going around.

    2. danpaco

      My optimistic take on this move is to give space for Saudi Arabia to deny its airspace to Israeli planes. Forcing their attack corridors back into Iraq.
      Dare to dream…..

      1. Will

        Ambassador Freeman on Dialogue Works said Pakistan was authorized to play mediator after consultation with Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, a grouping he says has a lot of potential. Now after negotiations fail, Pakistan moves troops into Saudi. Egypt has had 30k in the Sinai for a while. And Ann shared a link below in which Erdogan said publicly Turkey may have to take military action to save the people of Lebanon and Gaza from Israeli barbarism.

        Probably I’m seeing things that are not there, but it would be very nice if facts on the ground could be changed to put an end to this stupidity. So, uh, if we’re gonna dream, let’s dream big!

          1. ISL

            As there is no functioning refinery in Haifa – cutting Azeri oil to Israel is moot (or am I missing a refinery that Iran didnt missile?).

    3. Revenant

      Or to help Saudi take control of Bahrain / keep control of its oilfields if there is a general Shia uprising.

    4. hk

      This might have been a part of Pakistan’s pressure on Iran: a reminder that they have treaty obligations with Saudis, too, if things go sideways. But, in face of this, what Iran did was probably the best counter: demonstrate the problem, the only problem practically (let’s not talk whether this is actually true) is Israel. Places the Saudis and other Gulfies (and their Lebanese Sunni allies) in bad light and makes it improbable that Pakistanis enter the conflict as Israel’s de facto allies.

      The alliances (especially when countries outside the region–India, Pakistan, even China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea–are considered, with complex interests and obligations that straddle both sides.) are complicated. All the more reason, I suspect, that Iran partook in this clown show.

  21. Tom Stone

    I see two issues here, one is that Trump is completely unhinged, he is bonkers.
    The second is that the USG as constituted is less agreement capable than a syphilitic weasel in rut.
    It is an institutional characteristic, separate from Trump’s insanity.

  22. hereweare

    A recent trocial:
    So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition. The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! President DONALD J. TRUMP

    1. Wukchumni

      So it boils down to a game of Battleship, except the other side knows the exact location of all of your men o’ war…

      China et al have warned Israel that if they nuke Iran, the same will happen to them, but they’ve been quiet as church mice regarding the USA using one for a third time against another country.

    2. Samuel Conner

      So … the solution to the problem that ships can only transit the Strait with Iranian consent is … to intercept all ships that transit the Strait with Iranian consent?

      I suppose that will solve high oil prices, but only via the means that Yves mentioned.

      1. hereweare

        You have to admit there’s a certain logic to it, even if the consequences might seem less than desirable all round.

        1. DGE

          The logic being, I assume, to prevent Iran from profiting from the blockage of the Strait. If you don’t pay a toll, you can’t use the Strait. If you do pay a toll, the US will seize your ship and its cargo and you’ll lose everything. Iran gains nothing from the blockage, and the world loses.

          The logical Iranian reaction would be to destroy Ras Tanura and the E-W Saudi pipeline by bombing all the pumping stations and call MbS’s bluff that they don’t need Hormuz. Then again, if the Houthis close off the Red Sea, that will have the same effect. At least, it seems the attack on Yanbu wasn’t enough to convince the Saudis to behave.

          The US doesn’t seem to get that Iran’s used to sanctions and hardship. They can afford to make the world’s economy scream. The US cannot. Does Trump think the world will side with the US and form a war coalition to close the Straits? That’s not even magical thinking any more.

          1. vao

            What if some countries (e.g. China) start escorting convoys of their tankers? Let the tankers go through the strait, load oil, return and just after exiting the strait there are their nation’s warship waiting for them for the continuing the journey. A bit like the Russians did recently for ships going through the Baltic sea, North Sea, and English Channel.

            1. DGE

              It’s about 135 ships per day in normal times, no? I wonder how many ships can be protected by a single warship.

              The weirdest part of this harebrained scheme, though, is the threat to “seize ships that pay a toll”. Iran has some friendly countries exempted from paying (I suspect Spain might become an important middleman in reselling Iranian oil to Europe, by the way). There’s no reason for Iran to do the US a favour and tell them whether allies like Japan and South Korea have cut toll deals. The US may find out anyway through espionage, but how can they use that to make a public accusation. How is the US gonna be able to tell which ship paid a toll if the payments get cleared using cryptocurrency?

              And assuming they seize a ship, then what? Are they gonna commandeer a Korean or Indian vessel, to say nothing of a Chinese one? Are they gonna resell the oil to the original buyer, thus driving the prices even higher because of the double charge?

              Also, this is open sea piracy. What if countries begin equipping their SLCCs with those container-launched missiles China was thinking of adopting?

              1. Objective Ace

                Isn’t safe to say any ship leaving the straight paid a toll? Either explicitly or de-facto through being friendly and otherwise supporting the regime through some other means that violates US sanctions?

                1. hereweare

                  The ducking stool principle updated for our modern and enlightened times. If you’re not at the bottom of the Strait, you’re guilty.

              2. vao

                Then we are back to WWII-like convoys, with several warships around the tankers and a submarine or two screening for hostile vessels. After all, aren’t all those navies supposed to protect their sea lanes?

                Of course, if you are some smallish hapless African or Asian country without a reasonable naval force, you are out of luck. So would be India, not because of the lack of military resources, but because its government would never dare offending the USA.

          2. Tom Denman

            Evidently Mr. Trump has never heard Dennis “Healey’s first law of politics: when you’re in a hole, stop digging.”

        2. Kouros

          The logic here is the perpetuation of the myth that the US protects the freedom of navigation everywhere (hello Cuba, hello NK) and that the US will be in control of the seas – and this is why they never venture in the Arctic, around the NE Passage, because they will have to hire Russian icebreakers and pilots…

    3. pjay

      This would certainly be a safer strategy in terms of losing military hardware or personnel. It would be a way to “do something” without the losses of a ground invasion of Iran. But given the economic costs to almost everyone, including “allies” in the Gulf and Asia and US consumers here, would the Trump administration actually consider such a move?

      I realize this is a Trump tweet and therefore has no relationship to the real world. But what, in fact, would be the next move by the US?

      1. Samuel Conner

        It has been suggested that DJT seems to need to dominate, or to appear to be dominating.

        This seems a plausible account of instances of what looks like “projection” (example – asserting that Iran wants a cease-fire when evidence suggests that it is actually US that wants one) and the reverse, such as this, in which DJT asserts control of the Strait of Hormuz as a rhetorical response to Iran’s de facto control.

        Will US actually prevent tolled oil shipments from exiting the Strait? That seems self-defeating, economically and politically.

        —–

        One hopes that at some point it will get through to US leadership that US has more to lose from continuing this stand-off than Iran does.

    4. The Rev Kev

      ‘Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade.’

      Is he talking about the Argentinian naval ships that Milie promised to send?

    5. ISL

      If this is serious and implemented, then Trump’s gonna play chicken with China again.

      We already know China has the cards (AI chips are useless absent helium and so many other things), so expect a quick Trump TACO (likely before the Monday market open – more grift), maybe losing a few ships in the process (not saying by whom).

          1. Antagonist

            I’m surprised nobody has suggested the pink taco yet. The Pink Taco is also the name of a bar and restaurant in the Hard Rock casino in Las Vegas. When I visited, I did order an actual pink taco, and I concluded that next time[1] I should avoid the artificial food dye that gives the pink color to the tortilla.

            [1]: There won’t be a next time because I dislike Las Vegas, and the only reason why I am familiar with the city is from working at the Consumer Electronics Show trade show.

          1. Wukchumni

            You can’t think of everything, but me likey.

            Trump Obviously Retreats Toward Infantile Laura Loomer Again

              1. vao

                The recipe looks comparatively like a lot of surgery-like work for not that much meat — even if “tarantulas make for a tasty and texturally satisfying meal”. Where I live, supermarkets do not carry frozen spiders — whether from Chile or Texas — in their product mix anyway.

  23. Victor Sciamarelli

    I think Iran deserves enormous credit, as well as having large cojones for its attacks on US military basis. From Truthout 3/26/26, “According to military officials cited by the outlet, many of the U.S.’s 13 bases near Iran have now been rendered “all but uninhabitable” due to Iran’s retaliatory strikes.” https://truthout.org/articles/report-many-middle-east-us-bases-all-but-uninhabitable-due-to-iran-strikes/
    The US bases in Europe might well have provided support for Ukraine but, regardless, it’s unimaginable that Russia would target and destroy these bases. Moreover, the hundreds of US overseas military bases are constantly cited as the foundation of the US empire.
    According to Responsible Statecraft from Mar 18, 2026, “The post-Cold War logic of maintaining Washington’s overseas bases relied on two premises. The first was that hosting these bases would be a source of security, shielding allies and partners from foreign attack through U.S. deterrence. The second was that, by investing in such a shared and long-term military infrastructure, the bond between host countries and Washington would be deepened and strengthened. In just a few days, the hollowness of both premises has been put on full display.” https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-gulf-bases/
    Iran’s military retaliation might well reach beyond West Asia. How can Japan, South Korea, or Europe, Article 5 or whatever, believe the US bases in their countries will guarantee their security when Iran, with a meagre ~$25b military budget is winning the war?

    1. PapaPoe

      The response to Russian “aggression” always ends in a nuclear exchange.

      Iran does not have nukes. This is a conventional war and the US is using it’s only dominant power left…blue sea navy to control Iran and demolish the global economy.

  24. funemployed

    Trump just posted that the US will be blockading Hormuz and interdicting any ships on the open seas that paid an “illegal” toll to Iran. Also that the US Navy will be entering the strait on a totally peaceful mission to look for mines and Iran better not shoot at them.

    1. NN Cassandra

      So the US is publicly taking the lead in blocking Hormuz just in time for the real world consequences in the west to really kick in. Clever.

      1. The Rev Kev

        He’ll walk it back before the markets open Monday. But not before a lot of his buddies make bank betting on the price of oil going sky high.

        2. funemployed

          I was thinking he might let the markets tank on Monday and then announce that the “blockade is lifted” on taco tuesday.

        3. JohnH

          It could be interesting if Iran actually let US warships into the Persian Gulf. What could they do there? Commercial ships could still be denied passage. If the US were to initiate hostile action, Iran could just sink all those warships…like shooting fish in a barrel. It would just be a sequel to rendering those 13 US military bases rendered uninhabitable.

    2. Goodtimes

      We should blow up our own bases and attack Israel while we’re at it. It’s the last thing the Iranians will expect.

      2. Ben Panga

        👀

        @ripplebrain
        58m
        We should start blowing up our own bases and attacking Israel while we’re at it. It’s the last thing the Iranians will expect

    3. vidimi

      A bold escalation, and like mines in the Hormuz, the mere threat of this could be enough to keep various players from paying the toll to Iran. It will be incumbent on countries like China to keep sending their ships through to show that the US threat is empty, but if the US does stop a Chinese ship, the escalation could be consequential.

  25. Aurelien

    Well, that went pretty much as expected. And as expected, Vance was getting his instructions from Tel Aviv: if Johnson is to be believed, he was called directly by Netanyahu. So let’s have no more assertions that the US can bring Israel into line: the reverse is observably the case.

    This leaves the US in a disastrous situation: one small, sensitive round object firmly gripped by Iran, the other by Israel. Satisfying one automatically means antagonising the other.

    As has been evident for a while, the two sides had different understandings of what these “negotiations” were about. The US seems to have assumed they could dictate terms, or at least present non-negotiable demands. The Iranians are partly playing mind-games, forcing the US to continue holding meetings with a regime they have wanted to destroy for half a century, and sowing discord in Washington and between the US and Israel. But it’s also an opportunity to repeat their negotiating goals. The preconditions they set out are not for agreeing to be present at talks, I think, but more to do with what the content of the talks might be. The Iranians are skilful and wily negotiators, and they obviously realise that lifting sanctions requires the agreement of nations and organisations around the world, and that this will take months at a minimum. So I interpret these statements as Iranian demands for what the content of the negotiations should be, ie the US should agree now to talk about Hormuz, sanctions and Lebanon, with the intention of reaching a positive outcome on all of them. They can also theoretically do some practical things–eg on Lebanon–to speed negotiations along. The Iranians can afford to wait for any substantive negotiations, and if there aren’t any, they probably won’t be too distressed. But if the US even agreed to negotiate about one of these topics in a specialised group, without prejudice to the others, this would tie them down in endless negotiating sessions, making it very difficult to walk away from, let alone start attacking again. Neither of those actions by the US is impossible, of course, but the Iranians are making it more difficult and raising the price. Advantage Iran.

    1. Socal Rhino

      I think it remains to be seen if the US can’t or won’t discipline Israel. I suspect there is a level of financial pain that would change that.

      It is likely that Trump’s economic team is buying into the notion that the energy crisis will be a benefit to the US economy, discounting the potential for a global depression. Or they may be adherents of the theory advanced by some oil analysts that says the global depression is the plan.

      I’ll wait and see.

      1. The Rev Kev

        If there was a global depression, then the calculation might be that the billionaire class would not be effected by it but would be able to go around the US and the world snapping up assets and whole industries on the cheap. After the decade or more of total misery, they would be still at the top and more powerful than ever. Think Russia in the 90s.

        1. Wukchumni

          The moneyed class in the USA has always preferred exclusivity over everything else, and it isn’t as if we don’t know where they live, as per the story on Bezo’s main squeeze near Miami.

          See Me-Dig Me is so last century when comeuppance see me.

        3. JP

          What you describe is a new age of feudalism and the new aristocracy. However buying up assets begs the question of what will pass for money on the global market if the dollar’s value is greatly diminished. Maybe oil but who will control that. Another problem with that privatization of the market will be lack of liquidity and balkanization of markets. There will be no global economy.

          The global economy is too supply chain tight and dependent. A global depression at this time will result in a global order that will most likely look far different than current prognostications. It may well be a world of smaller power centers without global resources. The power won’t be billionaires. It will be militaries.

          It seems silly, at this unstable point in time, to try an predict what the future will look like in 10 years. One can only hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The same goes for billionaires. They will be exposed and best be fast on their feet.

    2. NN Cassandra

      There are two things: the first is US having power over Israel by virtue of Israel being entirely dependent on US for its survival in current form. The second is US not using this power due to its government being captive to Zionists in general and Netanyahu in particular. In other words it’s very much “physically” possible for US to restrain Israel, the issue for Iran (and the world) is to break US free from the Zionist madmen. I mean, why would Netanyahu even bother to command Vance via phone if US doesn’t have say in what Israel does in ME anyway?

      1. pjay

        Yes. I know most NC readers make this distinction, but it is important to keep repeating it to clarify the real issues here. *Could* the US bring Israel to heel? Of course it could! *Will* it do so? No. Why not?

        It’s the last question on which there is room for debate between the “dog wagging tail” advocates vs. the “tail wagging dog” supporters. The truth, as the best commentators keep pointing out, is that it is both. The Blumenthal interview with Glen Diesen posted above is very useful here in describing how Trump’s administration has been completely dominated by the Israel lobby. There are other interests besides rabid Zionists that support Israel for various economic or geopolitical reasons. Most of the Blob has long seen Iran as an enemy, but there is disagreement on the best strategy for bringing it down. Israel and its neocon supporters have long favored open war, destruction and balkanization. They control Trump’s policy here, as Max points out.

        1. JonnyJames

          Well put. “There are other interests besides rabid Zionists that support Israel” (and US foreign policy in general)

          Also, the larger context of legalized political bribery and institutional corruption is often ignored. BigOil, BigFinance, BigTech, the MICIMATT, have convergent interests here. They benefit from subsidies, tax breaks, no -bid contracts etc. which can be rolled over to bribe Congress. It’s a wonderful self-financing mass corruption scheme. The Israel Lobby is not the only ones who have Congress bought and paid for.

          Some folks ignore the role of WASP elites, white Catholic elites (in addition to the Christo-Zioniists) who support Israel policy and US foreign policy. The bad old “Jews” are to blame while the poor, helpless white Christians have no power. Of course the situation is more complex

        2. hk

          I’ll be going in a different direction from most here, but, at least over the long term, the hostility between Israel and Iran was hardly a foregone conclusion in 1980s. The fact is that Iran is far from Israel or its immediate interests. Its hostility to Iraq, who did send troops to fight Israel in previous wars, made it at least an enemy’s enemy. The Ayatollahs did not renounce all aspects of the royalist regime and many previously good relationships (eg with Japan and South Korea) were maintained. Indeed, there were Israeli leaders making this argument in 1980s and Israelis eagerly helped smuggle arms into Iran at the time.

          Indeed, I think a good argument can be made that it was the US that caused Israeli stance towards Iran to change, not the other way around. This is not to say that Israel was dragged into this stance “unwillingly.” Rather, it required Israel to pursue a grand strategy that was too big for its own resources. To make this work, the “megalomaniac” factions in Israel had to be brought to power and that could only work with large US aid, military and otherwise. I think this underlay some of the conflict within Israeli right back then–perhaps even now?: I distinctly remember Ariel Sharon arguing against becoming too dependent on US and how Israel needed to pull back–albeit on its own terms. If so, Israeli megalomania and US “imperialism” coevolved: the latter supported the rise of former to enable Israel to be used against US’s enemies (Iran) and less against US allies (the Gulfies). But, after a while, one’d figure that they became so co-dependent that who was controlling whom no longer became relevant. Or in other words, Netanyahu was, in a sense, “our man in Tel Aviv” (for CIA and others who had never forgiven Iran for 1979) who has now grown too big for his own good now.

          1. JonnyJames

            Good points. As George Galloway said years ago. “The British had no right to give away land that did not belong to them”. The British empire created Israel after all, and the Balfour Declaration was 1917, well before the Holocaust.

            Many in the Arab world and Iran see Israel as a neo-Crusader state headed by Ashkenazi Jews from Europe. Like the old Crusader states, Israel is an artificial military stronghold that will not last for much longer. This makes some sense when looking at long-term historical context.

            1. vao

              “Like the old Crusader states, Israel is an artificial military stronghold that will not last for much longer. This makes some sense when looking at long-term historical context.”

              The Kingdom of Jerusalem lasted for 192 years, the Principality of Antioch 170, the County of Tripoli 187; the County of Edessa was comparatively short-lived at 52 years.

              As the famous saying goes: in the long term, we are all dead.

    3. vidimi

      I don’t think the US went in thinking Iran would accept anything it offered. We’ll probably see the real reason for it in a few days as I think it was to buy time for something and also to calm the markets. But if these negotiations will follow the patterns of Trump’s negotiations with Russia, then there might not be any other logic to it.

    4. .Tom

      > So let’s have no more assertions that the US can bring Israel into line: the reverse is observably the case.

      The point made yesterday by several people that I agree with is that the USA has the power to control Israel. It certainly does. Politically it chooses instead to do what Israel wants. I (and I guess some others) don’t quit asserting this because it is a moral argument.

      1. Socal Rhino

        Wilkerson and others think the US lost its sovereignty when Kennedy was assassinated. Others (like the late Pat Lang) think ISR is a powerful influence in the US generally and especially within the Trump family, but they are not the only powerful faction.

        One possible outcome of a US failed war in Iran is changing the relative power among factions. I’ve long thought political structures won’t change in the US short of a decisive military defeat.

        1. .Tom

          Thanks, Socal Rhino. Views about the significance of Kennedy are mixed. There’s the Sy Hersh version, which Norman Finkelstein seems to accord with, and there’s the Oliver Stone version, which Larry Wilkerson seems to accord with. I really don’t know how significant that is.

          I’ve said before, there’s nothing so bipartisan as support for Israel and hatred for Iran.

          I’ve also said before: We are Israel and Israel is us. We don’t get to blame Israel for anything until we start acting independently and show that we want different things and have different values.

          Btw, abbreviation ISR more commonly is used here to mean Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance.

            1. Socal Rhino

              Also, for any that don’t know, “ISR” is the ISO alpha3 designation for that entity.

              1. .Tom

                Sure. But read this sentence from yesterday by JohnnyGL.

                They’re entire ISR is supplied by American satellites and analyzed with American targeting software, all funded by American subsidies and American taxpayers.

                Took me a while to figure that out.

                Alternatively we could use the ISO 3166-1 alpha-2: IL
                or the ccTLD: .il
                or just spell it out, which on a phone it’s probably easier and on a US keyboard is only two more keystrokes.

        2. Bazarov

          The US doesn’t have “sovereignty” like a normal country because it is an empire. The continental United States is an important part of that empire–no doubt–but its interests are merely one element in a world-spanning system that must be maintained.

          In the Roman Empire, Italy was important of course, but its interests (agriculturally, for instance–Italian farmers were destroyed by cheap subsidized grain from the Nile Delta and Sicily) were often sacrificed to the wider imperial system’s interests. Same was true of the Spanish Empire, whose homeland was ultimately devastated by its imperial entanglement.

          America will regain its “sovereignty” when it becomes a normal country. Be careful what you wish for. For every bane the empire wreaks upon the American-core, there’s a boon (the US has its own modern versions of the Rome’s grain dole). Nostalgia for empire manifested in the UK for a reason. It’s good to be king. To live like a commoner again? The once haughty Americas will weep and gnash their teeth!

    5. thoughtfulperson

      “This leaves the US in a disastrous situation: one small, sensitive round object firmly gripped by Iran, the other by Israel. Satisfying one automatically means antagonising the other. ”

      Great metaphor. To slightly expand on it, collaborating with Iran to shut the straight means collapsing the world economy. This will cause a lot of pain amongst many funders of the current US regime. Even if they are notified ahead of time (of course) and may make some gains “buying low”, the costs of destroying the empire will likely far surpass whatever profits. Pain is likely to be widely shared

  26. Jonathan Birks

    Crooke’s discussion with Hedges is particularly illuminating. There is zero chance of Iran surrendering control of the Strait because a) it has no reason to and b) it has the means to maintain control indefinitely. Trump has insulated himself to this reality by purging realists from the military and marginalizing intelligence officials like Tulsi. And incredible situtation but here we are.

  27. The Rev Kev

    ‘Ryan Grim
    @ryangrim
    15 Aug 2025
    Israel says it’s worried China is re-supplying Iran’s missile defenses.
    I’ve been told supplying defensive weapons is always good. Odd.’

    Boy, there are sure a lot of triggered people in the comments to this tweet-

    https://xcancel.com/ryangrim/status/1956183382351598005

    An exception are two that say that ‘Iran has a right to defend itself.’ Don’t know why Israel is complaining. If the US sends it any more bombs and military equipment, the whole country would be in danger of sinking into the Mediterranean.

    1. chris

      I guess we can’t know how many of those people are paid to respond or are just bot accounts. If they are real people, we will be in for a hard time. That kind of commitment to insanity isn’t easily managed. I’m forced to accept that Trump really is their president and that he is legitimately representing the interests of these people in addition to whatever else he is prioritizing from his chosen allies. Continued polling and reporting from Israel supports a majority of their populace thinking the current conflict is worth it. Perhaps because those who disagreed have already left.

      Were there people with buckets trying to put out the fires while Rome burned and Nero fiddled? Did they give up trying when they saw nothing they did would matter? Will our citizens, addled by poisoned bread and crazed from a never ending circus, finally accept that their world is gone when they can’t maintain any standard of living? Will they realize this was a mistake when our children start dying from lack of medicine?

      Pass the grapa, I think I need a drink…

  28. arihalli

    Totally befoggled here. If the Shadow State is , as presupposed, been so powerful — then how the heck can they allow USA prosecution of this catastrophe?

    Why hasn’t the military long since ended this fiasco? We are told there are 13 dead soldiers, which may turn out to be 1300 for all we know. Don’t they have any loyalty to these men and women?

    As re: Israel, have they no insight into the fact they are the biggest purveyor of anti-semitism?

    First Russia defeats NATO in Ukraine conflict, now Iran forcing the USA to capitulate?

    I can understand the sheep here, having very little critical ability to interpret events given the MSM ability to run the narrative, but are they only going to bleat when a can of 6.5oz tuna fish costs $42.27? or when they are conscripted into this mideast nonsense? Seems to be so little here with a moral interest…. this is so sad.

    1. paul

      A strong possibility is that they just don’t care.

      There’s always plenty more humans, an oligarch’s omelette always takes a lot of broken eggs.

    2. Socal Rhino

      One view is: because they are that stupid.

      An open question this war may answer is: are there more competent people pulling strings from the shadows or is this level of incompetence all there is?

    3. Objective Ace

      Don’t they have any loyalty to these men and women?

      Trump just cut 40,000 staff from the VA to cheers and applause from most of his base. No, they dont care about these men and women at all

      1. Jabura Basadai

        know about the cuts, which were cumulative – but never read anything about red-hat base cheering, which seems odd since there are/were vets part of that base – but yeah, they don’t care unless it makes their wallets fatter –

        1. Objective Ace

          Theyre cheering about the government slashing jobs. While Some segment of the population may just be too ignorant to realize what theyre cheering for, they are doing it.

          Ignorance applies here too. If they somehow believe the soldiers here died for a noble cause the deaths wont bother them as much

  29. johnnyme

    The latest advisory from the UKMTO Operations Centre. 54NM SW of Hudaydah looks like it is roughly in the middle of the Red Sea.

    UKMTO WARNING 034-26 – SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY UKMTO has received a report of an incident 54NM southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. A sailing vessel was approached by a skiff with approximately 10-12 people on board, 4-5 of whom were armed with automatic weapons. The crew requested that the sailing vessel stopped and when the Master refused they attempted to pull the skiff alongside the sailing vessel to board. The Master deployed a flare and the skiff turned away and departed to the southeast. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO

  30. Ann

    South Korea’s president hits back at Israel in row over ‘disturbing’ video

    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3349733/south-koreas-president-hits-back-israel-row-over-disturbing-video

    Five arrested as Syria says it foiled Hezbollah-linked plot to kill Damascus rabbi

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/five-arrested-as-syria-says-it-foiled-hezbollah-linked-plot-to-kill-damascus-rabbi/

    Fuel protests in Ireland continue as pumps run dry, prices rise amid war in Middle East

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ireland-fuel-protests-9.7160759

    Iran must not charge tolls in Strait of Hormuz, UN maritime chief says | Shipping News

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/12/iran-must-not-be-allowed-charge-tolls-in-strait-of-hormuz-un-watchdog-says

    Abu Dhabi Crown Prince to begin China visit to boost ties, cooperation

    https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/abu-dhabi-crown-prince-official-visit-china

    Pakistan sends fighter jets to Saudi Arabia under mutual defence pact

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-says-pakistan-sends-fighter-jets-kingdom-under-defence-pact-2026-04-11/

    Trump threatens China with ‘big problems’ if they arm Iranian regime

    https://www.arabnews.com/node/2639594/world

    Pakistan deploys 13,000 troops and fighter jets to Saudi Arabia

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-deploys-13000-troops-and-fighter-jets-to-saudi-arabia/article70853223.ece

    Why reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t be enough to solve shipping woes and high oil prices

    https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/12/business/strait-hormuz-oil-exports

    Tribal gas stations offer a reprieve from high prices during Iran war

    https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-gasoline-prices-native-american-reservation-7f272163a63b12eec15f23463ae3907b

    1. The Rev Kev

      ‘South Korea’s president hits back at Israel in row over ‘disturbing’ video’

      I don’t think that Israel is happy that the South Koreans are re-opening their Embassy in Iran again.

  31. johnnyme

    Pope says he is ‘closer than ever’ to Lebanese people

    Vatican City: Pope Leo XIV expressed his closeness to the people of Lebanon on Sunday, saying there was a “moral obligation” to protect them while calling on warring parties to seek peace.

    “I am closer than ever, in these days of sorrow, fear, and unconquerable hope in God, to the beloved Lebanese people,” the pope told the crowd at St Peter’s Square following his Regina Coeli prayer.

  32. AG

    30 sec. comment by Hillary Clinton from 2008 promising war on Iran if she were President, on French TV
    https://x.com/Malcolm_Pal9/status/2041179256739463551

    Eventually one way or the other the wars which are regarded as structurally of US interest will be conducted by any administration – until the means are exhausted. Which would make it also very unlikely that China does not support Iran.

    1. Wukchumni

      One way, or another, I’m gonna find ya
      I’m gonna get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya
      One way, or another, I’m gonna win ya
      I’m gonna get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya
      One way, or another, I’m gonna see ya
      I’m gonna meet ya, beat ya, meet ya, beat ya
      One day, maybe next week
      I’m gonna meet ya, I’m gonna beat ya, I’ll beat ya

      I will cruise past Hormuz
      And if the radars are all down
      I’ll see who’s around

      One way, or another, I’m gonna find ya
      I’m gonna get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya
      One way, or another, I’m gonna win ya, I’ll get ya, I’ll get ya
      One way, or another, I’m gonna see ya
      I’m gonna meet ya, beat ya, meet ya, beat ya
      One day, maybe next week, I’m gonna beat ya
      I’ll beat ya

      And if the radars are all out
      I’ll follow your strait up bound
      See who’s hanging out

      One way, or another, I’m gonna lose ya
      I’m gonna give you the slip
      A slip of the lip or another, I’m gonna lose ya
      I’m gonna trick ya, I’ll trick ya
      One way, or another, I’m gonna lose ya
      I’m wanna trick ya, trick ya, trick ya, trick ya
      One way, or another, I’m gonna lose ya
      I’m gonna give you the slip

      I’ll walk down my threat, stand over a parapet
      Where I can see it all, find out who you call TACO
      Lead you to the chicken takeout
      Some specials on fowl food, get you in the mood

      One way, or another, I wanna get ya
      I’ll get ya, I’ll get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya (where I can see it all, find out who ya call boss)
      One way, or another, I wanna get ya
      I’ll get ya, I’ll get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya (where I can see it all, find out who ya call boss)
      One way, or another, I wanna get ya
      I’ll get ya, I’ll get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya (where I can see it all, find out who ya call boss)

      One Way or Another, performed by Blondie

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zBwRDEFMRY&list=RD_zBwRDEFMRY

  34. Es s Ce Tera

    I think it speaks volumes that this US administration was willing to sacrifice an Arleigh Burke with 370 crew for a mission with a 100% probability of failure.

    It also speaks volumes that Iran, despite its position of greater advantage, did not destroy it, instead gave a warning which was correctly heeded.

    Clearly one side is compassionate and merciful even toward its enemy, the other side does not even care for its own.

    And those sailors are now grateful.

    How must it feel to be sent on sacrificial missions by this administration in particular

    1. TimH

      If any US servicepeople have raised objections to illegal orders, the lid has been kept very well clamped shut on it.

    2. Samuel Conner

      > How must it feel to be sent on sacrificial missions

      A recent Events in Ukraine post, on sacrifice of infantry for transient PR “wins” (linked at today’s NC news links page), seems relevant.

      It’s very depressing to think that perception management is such a high priority in both US and Ukraine national governance.

      Where is the concern about concrete material realities?

  35. Howard L

    I know nothing of military tactics but my Sunday coffee is kicking in and it is giving me courage to speculate a bit. Is it possible that the two US naval ships dropped off some underwater drones (Manta Ray?) in anticipation of a military operation in the SOH?

      1. vidimi

        that’s an interesting suggestion. I speculated about underwater drones in yesterday’s thread, but it didn’t occur to me that they may seed some mines themselves. Of course, casus belli is redundant since they’re already at war with no real casus, but it would play into the US propaganda war.

    2. ISL

      Sure they could have – but said drones could also have been dropped from aircraft at any time without risking the sailors and reputation of the US navy further (than the shit show already did).

  36. raspberry jam

    Crooke also describes… the Iranian demand that GCC states expel major US corporations like Microsoft if they are to have a relationship with Iran

    I think this is a fascinating development in the progression of our new global wars as it moves beyond sanctions and into things like permissible software/tech blocs and agreements that emphasize things other than what the companies want. I have always thought that the big multinational tech/software companies function like parallel governing structures and limit state sovereignty. Even countries in the EU are disengaging themselves (which is also good for their own domestic software and tech industries).

    Regarding the “negotiations”, I just think about how long the diplomatic muscle has been atrophied in the US. The Iranians are going to have to teach Vance et al how to behave like adults and that is going to take many iterations. I think flight restrictions are temporarily lifted in Israel right now btw – official explanation is “end of war restrictions” but I think it is to allow as many out as possible before Israel takes another pounding from Iran.

    Another thing – I’m surprised to see so many people huffing and puffing that the Iranians should not have even had the meeting because it degrades their negotiating position. First, talking is always better than not talking! Even if the negotiating position has no overlap, the more you talk, the more likely you are to continue talking and lower the escalation.

    Second, there is a true cultural mismatch here that I think a lot of westerners are missing. Every Israeli I’ve talked to about the Iranians has said some variation of they like to bluster even the ones for whom English is their native language. Well in American English there is another phrase more common (“they talk a lot of shit“) they never say, the distinction is subtle but important: the latter phrase implies they lie about capabilities, while the former is more that boasting is part of the threat broadcast. The Americans don’t care about this shit, they think they’re the top of the heap, they just want the high level, they hear they talk a lot of shit and think playing stupid juvenile military freedom of navigation games while talking to the delegation is actually a viable response.

    So I don’t expect any real major changes until regime change in the US and Israel, however that ultimately comes about. Israeli election no later than October of this year. I had kind of got the impression that this trip was Vance’s big coming out moment to see if he could resolve the crisis his boss started and I am not sure he passed the test. I am also getting the impression that Trump and his true believer faction are sort of aware of these factional manipulations and wondered if they were the ones ordering the military to do the reckless Hormuz incursion during the talks (to raise the likelihood of them and Vance failing).

    1. tegnost

      To this one of your many points…
      I have always thought that the big multinational tech/software companies function like parallel governing structures and limit state sovereignty.

      With efforts like the tpp attempting to provide them supragovernmental powers.
      With (corporate)Citizens United the mnc’s have trampled the will of America’s once citizens, now consumers and is busying itself enmeshing the ROW in it’s nefarious ai web. Were I Iran that threat would need to be eradicated, and they’re pretty easy targets (data centers) Remember Snowden and all the info that is/has been collected on the captive population of the USA. Immiseration r us.I would counsel ROW to resist.

    2. hk

      Could you elaborate a bit more about the “bluster” vs “talking shit” distinction a bit more? This is a fascinating distinction: on a poker table, some people always bluff–so their talking “shit” conveys no information. Some people mix strategies depending partly on what cards they might be holding–that is, if they are not bluffing, they don’t hold anything good, but if they are talking tough, they might have good cards–the latter adds more credibility to the threat and makes it more effective. Am I thinking along the same intuition?

      1. raspberry jam

        Not exactly. I think of every culture as having a particular “boiling point”, a sort of tendency to argue or yell when provoked. And every culture has a different boiling point with different ramifications, for example if a Canadian is yelling at me in a dispute I am getting a restraining order and if an Israeli is yelling at me in a dispute I am waiting my turn to speak. Israelis are simply aggressive, both interpersonally and physically. It’s not personal, it’s tactical to establish a particular posture.

        So far the Israeli public can more-or-less continue the delusion that the Iron Dome and other intercept capability has kept them safe from Iran’s capabilities. And they do live in fear of Iran, they’ve been cultivated for decades to believe they’re constantly under existential threat from Iran, that their lives and the lives of their children and parents and friends are also under threat, that if they fall then their gay children will be hanged by the Islamicists and they’ll be driven from their homes and shot in the streets. 4-5x a day or more they’re sent to the shelter for missile attacks that so far have been majority intercepted. It’s stressful and boring. Day in and day out they hear things like Ben Gurion has been hit and then people are still coming and going from the airport like nothing has changed.

        So with this context, this viewpoint, they hear the daily statements by IRGC or Ghalibaf and try to compare to their own experience. It’s not shit talking – something clearly is happening – but it’s not what they say is happening. There’s an impact, the impact is real – but it’s not what they say it is. I think a native American English speaker would use “talking shit” to mean something less substantial than it actually is, in order to provoke a reaction (talk shit -> get hit). This is the opposite: there is a suspicion, a fear, that it’s more substantial than it has been so far, and the conditions that have protected them (Iron Dome etc) will fail. They can’t say that directly though (not censorship, psychological protection) so it surfaces by pointing out the Iranian threat display as “all talk”, eg if they’re so good why haven’t they hit desal/Tamar/Dimona/Knesset building etc.

        1. Kouros

          “if they’re so good why haven’t they hit desal/Tamar/Dimona/Knesset building etc.” as we would have done many times overby now, eh?! No looking in that secret painting in the attic to see their real portraits for them, eh?!

        2. hk

          So, in a way, Israelis say (amd justify) that Iran is “talking shit” because they fear that Iran has more cards than shown but they can’t openly admit that for psychological reasons?

  37. Expat2uruguay

    I predict that we are seeing the emergence of a global anti-imperialism movement on the internet utilizing AI slop videos of mockery:

    https://youtu.be/QmVqDxLmSbA

    Social media accelerates social movements. How big can this get? I think a new player is entering the game, better pay attention Mr market!

    Oops there goes the narrative!?

  38. Wukchumni

    I realize it is frowned upon talking in regards to investments, but I went long on oil the other day filling up the Taco, 18 gallons worth.

    1. Bugs

      For the 1st time in my life, I hit the diesel jackpot and paid over €200 to fill up my Toyota 4×4. 87 liters @€2.30/lt. There’s a price we all must pay for Eretz Israel, I guess.

      1. Wukchumni

        Its better than winning the Vin Diesel jackpot where you are forced to watch all of his films in one sitting, but only just.

            1. ambrit

              Ten lashes with a wet noodle for ambrit. Phyl reminds me that the aforementioned failure will be of Collectivized Doomsday Securities, CDO. I don’t know how I’ll square it, but I’ll try extra hard.

    2. ambrit

      Urea gonna like this next one. We invested in several sacks of Triple 8 fertilizer, which was still available at our local Bigg Boxx Store. We figured that since 8 is the big Lucky Number for the Far East crowd, we’d curry favour with the possessors of the Mandate of Heaven and throw the dice and plant the seeds.
      Stay safe and spruce up your garden at altitude. Oh, and perhaps Marmot stew?

        1. JonnyJames

          Ok but I’ll need to “get pissed” first.

          Or should we all just “take the piss”?

          1. ambrit

            I just hope that this doesn’t turn into another iteration of the Trickle Down Theory. (This is an economics blog after all.)

        2. ambrit

          That would be the “Sweet Smell of Success” would it not?
          Then, we could rationalize that Golden Showers were our patriotic duty. Sign me up for the Stonewall Brigade today!

  39. Wukchumni

    UFC* 86

    Scrappy America versus Iran-the Plan

    A newish empire and an aged empire go into the octagon, and both come out saying nothing doing.

    PPV HD: $23,495,456,381.82 and counting

    *Ultimate Failure (of) Communications

    1. tegnost

      Recalls a bumper sticker from the 70’s

      “Nuke em til they boil, then go and take the oil”

      Not as popular as “Tourists go home! but leave your daughters” interestingly or not both have a tinge of the masculine…so we were not woke, then we woke up, then we went back to sleep again I guess…

      1. JonnyJames

        lol. I also recall seeing bumper stickers like “Kick their Ass, and take their gas” in the 1990s.

        The tendency for Stockholm Syndrome in the US is very high. Millions of US denizens enjoy getting ripped off, price gouged and played for suckers, apparently. As if stealing oil brings prices down.

        The emperor-god will “take their oil” and make gas cheap for the plebs. Yah, sure, you betcha

  41. chuck roast

    Yves, thank you for your summary of most of the videos. I get a message from YouTube to “Sign in to confirm you’re not a bot” when I click on them. Since I prefer to maintain my tattered anonymity, I won’t be signing into YouTube now or ever. We members of the “huddled masses” in this marginal community are fortunate to have you.

    1. .Tom

      That ban is annoying. It’s on your public IP address for a period of time. Idk what triggers it. All devices and apps sharing that address affected. Use a VPN or different network (eg phone hotspot) to get around it.

      1. chuck roast

        Many thanks. I downloaded a free Proton VPN, and as they say in Maine, so fah so good.

        1. Hepativore

          Use either Invidious instances and if you are on mobile Android, download and install PipePipe, an app that can leech videos from YouTube without the spying and ads.

  42. Ann

    Turkey threatens military action against Israel, MK calls Recep Tayyip Erdogan ‘pathetic’

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-892720

    Tehran says US ‘failed to gain the trust’ of Iran negotiators in Pakistan

    https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-us-failed-negotiations-nuclear-weapons/

    IDF finds Hezbollah weapons cache stored in Bint Jbail hospital, kills dozens of terrorists

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-892722

    Ukrainian forces operating in Libya have attacked a Russian tanker, officials say

    https://apnews.com/article/4b9ec378ea1bf064d13cfe4ea026d2d4

    2. ISL

      Not the first time Israel claimed to find weapons in hospitals which then was debunked. It makes zero military sense and zero political sense, but then if you have a nation of brainwashed zombie genocidal maniacs – why not spew garbage 24/7. I recall how they argued that Hamas had rifles in the MRI room (with the magnets). Well, Israelis really think the world is super stupid. The reality is the IDF is a GENOCIDAL force of evil.

  43. ambrit

    Since Fearless Leader has now officially called for Privateering to return as American policy, I guess we’ll have to start up a new Links Department: The Steal Dossier.

    1. Wukchumni

      Utilizing ‘speak like a pirate’ online, i’ve translated Cap’n’s last missive…

      Arrr, Iran, that scurvy dog, swore they’d keep the Strait o’ Hormuz open, but they knowingly let the gates slam shut! Shiver me timbers, that caused a heap o’ worry, chaos, and heartache for many a soul and nation across the seven seas! They bluster about plantin’ mines in the brine, even though their whole fleet and most o’ their mine-droppin’ scallywags have been blown to smithereens! They might have, aye, but what brave shipmaster would risk their vessel and crew on such a gamble? ‘Tis a grave dishonor and a permanent stain on the good name o’ Iran, and what’s left o’ their so-called “Leaders,”Arrr, Iran, that scurvy dog, swore they’d keep the Strait o’ Hormuz open, but they knowingly let the gates slam shut! Shiver me timbers, that caused a heap o’ worry, chaos, and heartache for many a soul and nation across the seven seas! They bluster about plantin’ mines in the brine, even though their whole fleet and most o’ their mine-droppin’ scallywags have been blown to smithereens! They might have, aye, but what brave shipmaster would risk their vessel and crew on such a gamble? ‘Tis a grave dishonor and a permanent stain on the good name o’ Iran, and what’s left o’ their so-called “Leaders”.

      1. ambrit

        Zounds! Is the Steele Dossier right and Donald really is Cap’n Piss Gums?
        It makes me think that we are living in an Acid Etched Edition of Zap Comix.

        1. Wukchumni

          I apologize for the computer repeating Trump’s latest, in my translation, I guess its just used to bombast and repetitiveness.

          1. ambrit

            No problemo. I thought it might have been in the original posting as an example of the Big Lie method. Repeat a lie often enough and soon people will begin to believe it as being true.

    2. Mikel

      There are those around and who have the ear of the administration willing to squeeze whatever gain they can for themselves from the Hormuz drama for as long as they can.

  44. JonnyJames

    “… Blumenthal describes long form the deep ties between Trump and the Zionists, going back to his father Fred Trump…”

    Mafia lawyer Roy Cohn, was one of DT’s mentors

    His daughter converted to Judaism and married Jared Kushner
    Kushner family close to Nethanyahu
    https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/when-netanyahu-slept-at-the-kushners-and-other-media-tales-of-trumps-jewish-confidantes-481486

    Dear Leader seemed to agree that he is the first “Jewish president”
    https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-hanukkah-reception/

    Adelson, Ellison, Singer and other Jewish Zionists have reportedly donated (bribed) the emperor to the tune of 100s of billions

    Appearing in the Knesset, the emperor boasted about selling US policy to Zionist oligarchs (Adelson)

    And we can only speculate what dirt Israel/Mossad has on the emperor. Not a very good look.

    Is the prez engaged in a form of treason? Since most of Congress is bribed by the Lobby, are they also acting against the interests of the US?

    2. Doggo

      Since we’re speculating on Trump’s motivations and what’s driving him, I saw a very interesting Tucker Carlson clip last night. Tucker showed video footage from last year’s Trump inauguration when he was getting sworn into office.

      The decorum is, the president’s wife holds up the bible and the president places his left hand on the bible and raises his right hand while reciting the oath. However, this time he clearly does NOT place his left hand on the bible. It’s just dangling by his side.

      Why would he do that? Famous atheists like the Clintons (and probably most of DC swamp creatures as well) do not believe in Jeebus or God or anything else, but they have no problem putting their hand on the bible. They have no reason not do it, since it’s expected of them and the pleb rubes think they should do it. So if Trump is an actual Christian with Christian beliefs, he would’ve put his hand on the bible. Or if he’s just a lipservice Christian but in reality an atheist (which is what I and the people on alt-media believe), he would’ve put his hand on the bible anyways because why not? Every other DC politician does it even though they don’t believe in Jeebus or the afterlife.

      Tucker was articulating the above argument, and it deeply disturbed him that the only explanation is that Trump really believes in this stuff, but the inverse. So he’s flinching from putting his hand on the bible because he is repulsed by it, having become a servant of the anti-God. Like the cabalistic something (I forget the name) religious cult that some Jews participate in, seems like Trump became a disciple of it.

      1. vidimi

        some years ago there was another scandal dubbed Wienergate, when the contents of Anthony Wiener’s computer got leaked. Allegedly, there was a file on there in a folder named Life Insurance called frazzled.rip that showed Mrs Clinton engaged in the same kind of religious ritual.

      2. JonnyJames

        I don’t know what sort of twisted beliefs he and his buddy Netanyahu have, they are reportedly atheists. They both cynically exploit religion for political purposes, and that sort of thing is as old as politics.

        I’m no theologian but I don’t think that Jesus told his followers to mass murder the little children, mass murder the Samaritans and steal their stuff, and praise the money changers. I don’t think he said blessed are the warmongers, but Crusader Pete the Secretary of War Crimes apparently does.

        The Pontifex Maximus (Pope) should have publicly ex-communicated Joe Biden, JD Vance as well as a whole lot more but money and politics is more important and religious hypocrisy is probably even older than politics.

  45. Mikel

    Just another interesting note that House Of Saud site keeps inserting into nearly every article.

    “The April 22 ceasfire expiration coincides with the opening of Hajj arrival and the sealing of the Umrah cordon around Mecca — meaning the ceasefire’s collapse would occur just as hundreds of thousands of pilgrims, including 119,000 from Pakistan (the ceasefire’s primary mediator) and 221,000 from Indonesia, are arriving in or transiting through Saudi Arabia.”

      1. ambrit

        Looks like we are going to need new Mediniators.
        That will be a serious issue when the House of Saud is deposed. Who will be the guardians of the Islamic Holy Sites? Make Mecca an International City? Jerusalem as well?
        I cannot but wonder if a part of the Samson Option is destroying Mecca and Medina with nukes.
        Stay safe.

  46. Mikel

    BREAKING: 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia fully restores East-West oil pipeline, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and pumping 7,000,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia says it needs no more strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/qnIYu3pURG — World Affairs (@World_Affairs11) April 12, 2026

    Giving a detailed breakdown of all the issues still remaining:
    https://houseofsaud.com/saudi-pipeline-blockade-osp/

    1. Doggo

      This is informative more about how the Saudi govt is thinking, rather than any change in the physical flow of oil. As far as the oil flow goes, the pipeline might be capable of max 7mil barrels but the oil loading terminals can only handle 2.5m. So the rest of 4.5m capacity is useless until they build more terminals or refineries (which will take years).

      Another thing is that a couple of cheap little Iranian drones damaged and shut down their pipeline for days. What’s to prevent Iran from sending more drones a couple of times a week, indefinitely? Nothing. And we haven’t even gotten to the Houthis who can big cause problems in the Red Sea as well.

      Saudis announcing that they don’t need Hormuz anymore when they clearly do, to me is indicative of them deciding to cast their lot with USA and go all-in rather than seek rapproachment with Iran.

  47. XXYY

    Israel’s role in sabotaging the US delegation was evident in Vance’s statement announcing the failure of the negotiations, when he falsely accused Iran of refusing to give up its alleged quest for a nuclear weapon. This is just a rehashed piece of Zionist propaganda. Trump Refuses Exit Ramp, War with Iran will Continue–Larry Johnson

    IMO Israel should add an 11th point to their list of demands: “Israel must dismantle it’s nuclear weapons and uranium enrichment program and ensure that they will never seek a nuclear weapon in the future.”

    We have a great opportunity to shine a light on the complete hypocrisy of Israel’s (and the world’s) nuclear weapons stance, and perhaps take this ridiculous issue off the negotiating table for the immediate future. At the very least, this would give Iran a powerful reply whenever the issue of their enrichment program comes up.

    Not holding my breath, however.

    1. Timmy

      Responsibility for any break of the ceasefire will be assiduously avoided by all parties hence (IMO) there is an increase in the probability of a false flag in order to cast blame, justify escalation. In this context, is interdiction on the high seas an act of aggression? A blockade is also considered, I believe, as an act of war. I have not yet seen Iran respond to the threat of a blockade

  49. boshko

    Scott ritter made the claim that Iran destroyed the main runway, fuel depot and partial terminal building at Tel aviv’s Ben Gurion airport, thus severing the main air link to Israel and the its western military suppliers (and its escape route, if only psychological):


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RKEjfIDEys

    I cannot find any mention elsewhere. Not Al jazeera, not al mayadeen, not reuters, nothing. Is this AI?? seems major if so, but given media censorship blackout on any strikes in israel, may take time to trickle out?

    From the ben gurion flight board, it appears some flights landed 4/12, but after it’s all ambiguous:

    https://www.iaa.gov.il/en/airports/ben-gurion/flight-board/?flightType=arrivals

      1. boshko

        thanks for confirming.

        i know Richard Wolff has been notifying viewers/listeners that his shows are being duplicated/manipulated with AI to spread false narratives.

        seems this is becoming standard to attack anyone challenging MSM narratives using this method.

        1. ambrit

          Yes. It looks like a very sneaky new version of Hasbara. Now, with AI “help,” make your adversary appear to be incompetent, delusional, mendacious, and dull. A form of projection unless I am misinformed.

    2. johnnyme

      Al Mayadeen had a post about this a week or so ago:

      Iran strikes control tower, radar installations in Ben Gurion Airport

      And they posted an update today on the status of Ben Gurion:

      Ben Gurion airport stands nearly empty as Israelis fear travel: Report

      Despite a declared ceasefire, Ben Gurion Airport remains largely deserted, with Israelis still hesitant to travel amid ongoing uncertainty, the Israeli channel i24 Arabic reported.

      The report added that the airport is currently closed to regular air traffic, echoing its full shutdown during the previous 12-day war with Iran. While that earlier closure marked an unprecedented disruption at the time, the current situation appears even more prolonged, with operations only partially restored for a limited number of Israeli carriers transporting small groups of passengers.

  50. Bill B

    Israel and Iran on the Edge: Is a Nuclear Scenario Possible — Krapivnik & Postol
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4Z2DvBEYEE

    Warning: first 20 minutes is denial of significant impacts of anthropogenic climate change, and other disinformation/misinformation re climate change. Postol seemingly believes he understands climate science as well as he does his own specialty.

    1. hereweare

      Their drivel about climate change makes me less inclined to think they know what they’re talking about generally.

      1. JonnyJames

        Krapivnik (like Col. MacGregor) believes there is some sort of plot to eliminate or replace whites with non-whites in western europe. I don’t think that is an adequate explanation of immigration policy at all, but they are good in their fields. Immigration policy and climate science is not their specialty.

        1. AG

          I like to call it the Martyanov syndrome. But still invaluable in their genuine fields. People who might be more progressive on “soft” issues but are illiterate in the other stuff are less helpful. I find. Either you know military affairs and rocket science or you don´t. We have way too little expertise there compared to the progressives favourites “race”, “gender” and “climate”. With the former two at least, it´s easy to get through just by repeating the correct views.

          1. JonnyJames

            I totally agree, plus I enjoy Andrei’s humor and can get animated at times. Krapivnik has a friendly personality and also lighten things up with humor. With subject matter so dark, humor is always welcome.

          2. Huey

            Why the quotations around “climate”? Neoliberals have dragged the Social Sciences through the mud, yeah, but are you saying that a layman can claim authority as a climate scientist, but not as a rocket scientist?

            1. AG

              In “my” Western environment, yes.
              At least if you repeat widely shared views.
              The larger problem however is altogether an almost complete lack of expertise in military affairs among the same circles.
              That means eventually: It´s much more likely that even as a layman you can be correct on climate issues but not on miltary issues if you base your assessment on establishment knowledge.

      2. Samuel Conner

        It certainly suggests “lack of self-awareness of own limitations.”

        More worryingly, perhaps many of the experts to whom we look for insight are suffering from some degree of anasognosia; they are impaired but unaware of that. This might become increasingly common as a neurological sequela of repeated CV infection.

        I wonder how this may affect our rulers’ responses to the coming crises.

        1. SES

          FWIF, wasn’t Israel the first country to go all-in on mass vaccination and the “vax and relax” strategy? That would suggest that their leaders, and populations, might be ahead of others by a couple of infections. If you can trust Wikipedia, Iran relied on whole inactivated virus vaccines (domestic, joint Indian-domestic, and Chinese) and one domestic subunit vaccine, whereas Israel relied on Pfizer.

    2. Quintian and Lucius

      It’s an aside but I always appreciate when a commentator says in the face of a question that they simply don’t know enough about the issue and pivot to something they actually do understand. The podcast industrial complex seems to encourage yapping through your own ignorance unfortunately.

  51. n

    As most of us expected the whole negotiation storyline was just a ploy to distract the markets while the US continues re-arming and sending troops to do continue escalating.

    Blockading a blockade is a novel military tactic though and I cant wait to see how that one plays out!

    1. Will

      > Blockading a blockade

      Gives whole new meaning to “doubling down”. Also, why not simply re-impose the sanctions on Iran they lifted when this all kicked off? Afraid countries will ignore them and build workarounds? In which case, the double blockade seems like an admission of weakness.

  52. AnthonyMartin

    Trump continues to bash in his head with the fashionable Club Hormuz: higher interest rates, higher gasoline pump prices, demise of the petro dollar, demise of US prestige, demise of Trumps’s aura of power, demise of US missile stockpile, continual reliance of Netanyahu for stupid decision making, probable escalation by Yemen and Hezbollah (with Iranian munitions) against Israel, & probable arms and info trade between Iran and Russia and China. No comfort from Melania.

    Next Trump will visit China to chastize & threaten Xi for not providing the US with rare earth materials ,magnets, and tariff concessions.

    1. DGE

      Well, not like it wasn’t obvious since the beginning that Israel would pull whatever they could to end any hope of a settlement, especially one that is sure to be disadvantageous to them.

      Once again, the West will be silent on Israel crimes. But it’s a wonder that the GCC quislings, Jordan and Egypt can remain stable when their populations witness Israel attack their neighbours and co-religionists with reckless abandon.

  54. nyleta

    Iranian Navy just said any naval vessel approaching the Straight will be treated as violation of the ceasefire. The UK has stated that they will not take part in a naval blockade of Iran. US Sealift Command is at 60 per cent readiness and already feeling the pinch of present operations without 5th fleet headquarters.

    Chinese navy is short fleet oilers as well for convoy operations that far away, although I believe the US would try to catch China shipments around the Malacca Straight to spread the pain a little. China really needs Simon’s town.

    Orban is gone and China will cease sulphuric acid exports in May, there goes the Australian mining industry.
    The RBA better be putting a lot of physical cash out there because the undersea cables are next.

    1. Will

      > The RBA better be putting a lot of physical cash out there

      Aussie cash is made of plastic, no?

  56. Jason Boxman

    Is this for reals. This timeline is lit

    TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation.
    The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
    Additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade. All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.

    https://x.com/centcom/status/2043432050921718194?s=46

    1. Acacia

      So this means the US Navy is going to move much closer to Iran than 1000 km ? Because otherwise, there’s more ocean than they’ve got ships.

      I wonder how long before the next “laundry room fire”.

      More seriously… let’s say a Chinese ship is passing through. US Navy says “Stop! There’s a blockade. We’ll shoot!” Chinese ship ignores them and just keeps going.

      Next move?

    2. The Rev Kev

      And with that goes the world’s economy. Looks like Trump was stupid enough to take Jack Keane’s advice after all.

        1. hereweare

          Earth to be renamed Trumpworld.
          The sun: That Nasty Cheap and Unreliable Alternative to Fossil Fuels.
          The moon: Mine.

    4. axoimz

      “WELL, WE’RE GONNA BLOCKADE IT EVEN HARDER.”

      Amazing. Genius. Five-year-olds running are US policy.

      I’d think that mr market will have something to say about this approach?

  58. ThirtyOne

    From the era that brought us Iran-Contra, some things never change.

    I’ve been waiting for something to happen
    For a week or a month or a year
    With the blood in the ink of the headlines
    And the sound of the crowd in my ear
    You might ask what it takes to remember
    When you know that you’ve seen it before
    Where a government lies to a people
    And a country is drifting to war

    And there’s a shadow on the faces
    Of the men who send the guns
    To the wars that are fought in places
    Where their business interest runs

    On the radio talk shows and the TV
    You hear one thing again and again
    How the USA stands for freedom
    And we come to the aid of a friend
    But who are the ones that we call our friends—
    These governments killing their own?
    Or the people who finally can’t take any more
    And they pick up a gun or a brick or a stone

    And there are lives in the balance (There are)
    There are people under fire (There are)
    There are children at the cannons (There are)
    And there is blood on the wire

    There’s a shadow on the faces
    Of the men who fan the flames
    Of the wars that are fought in places
    Where we can’t even say the names

    They sell us the President the same way
    They sell us our clothes and our cars
    They sell us everything from youth to religion
    The same time they sell us our wars
    I wanna know who the men in the shadows are
    I wanna hear somebody asking them why
    They can be counted on to tell us who our enemies are
    But they’re never the ones to fight or to die

    And there are lives in the balance (There are)
    There are people under fire (There are)
    There are children at the cannons (There are)
    And there is blood on the wire

    Lives in the Balance
    Jackson Browne
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3YcZ233MIs

  61. Ann

    Donald Trump considers resumption of limited operation against Iran

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892772

    A Hezbollah commander describes battling Israel in Lebanon

    https://www.npr.org/2026/04/12/g-s1-117045/hezbollah-commander-lebanon-israel

    Trump Hits Out At Starmer As UK Confirms It Won’t Join His Strait Of Hormuz Blockade

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/trump-hits-out-at-starmer-as-uk-confirms-it-wont-join-his-strait-of-hormuz-blockade_uk_69dbd0fee4b048dba44da9cd/

    1. John k

      Looks like we’re getting pushed out of Asia to a regional power… only easy to invade oily locals are luckily really close to hand, Canada and Mexico; and unlike Venezuela,their oil industry is in pretty good shape.

  63. Ben Panga

    What really happened in Islamabad — and what Trump is trying now (Ignatius the Conduit in WaPo)

    Extract:

    Vice President JD Vance and Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf put down their markers, the knowledgeable sources said. But after long hours of discussion, Ghalibaf had impressed the American team as a refined and professional bargainer — and potential leader of a new Iran. Officials believe other officials from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are opening their own channels because they want to be part of the future as well.

    Trump is said to have recognized that a ground attack or other military escalation might lead the U.S. into a quagmire. It has dawned on the White House, as critics have been warning, that wars in the Middle East are easy to start but hard to stop.

    Trump administration officials see three possible scenarios as the U.S. tightens its economic grip: First, the regime could be overthrown, an outcome they think is more likely to occur once the bombing has stopped than before; second, Ghalibaf or some other new leader could decide to cross what the Trump team has pitched as a “golden bridge” into a new future; or, third, hard-liners in the IRGC could try to break the blockade or launch other strikes to force more U.S. concessions.

    Idiots

    1. Yalt

      That level of cognitive dissonance can’t be easy to maintain.

      And from the looks of Trump’s Truth Social account tonight it looks like someone’s having trouble coping with the stress. So far we have a lengthy screed insulting the Pope, a picture of Trump Tower on the moon, and a picture of Trump Himself as Jesus raising the dead. A sort of plea for 25th Amendment help if you ask me.

      1. Ben Panga

        Lordy! You undersold it if anything Yalt!

        1 I copied in full. 2 & 3 direct link to the images.

        1. The anti-pope screed:

        Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy. He talks about “fear” of the Trump Administration, but doesn’t mention the FEAR that the Catholic Church, and all other Christian Organizations, had during COVID when they were arresting priests, ministers, and everybody else, for holding Church Services, even when going outside, and being ten and even twenty feet apart. I like his brother Louis much better than I like him, because Louis is all MAGA. He gets it, and Leo doesn’t! I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the United States and, even worse, emptying their prisons, including murderers, drug dealers, and killers, into our Country. And I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States because I’m doing exactly what I was elected, IN A LANDSLIDE, to do, setting Record Low Numbers in Crime, and creating the Greatest Stock Market in History. Leo should be thankful because, as everyone knows, he was a shocking surprise. He wasn’t on any list to be Pope, and was only put there by the Church because he was an American, and they thought that would be the best way to deal with President Donald J. Trump. If I wasn’t in the White House, Leo wouldn’t be in the Vatican. Unfortunately, Leo’s Weak on Crime, Weak on Nuclear Weapons, does not sit well with me, nor does the fact that he meets with Obama Sympathizers like David Axelrod, a LOSER from the Left, who is one of those who wanted churchgoers and clerics to be arrested. Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician. It’s hurting him very badly and, more importantly, it’s hurting the Catholic Church! President DONALD J. TRUMP

        2. Trump as Jesus, healing some white people

        Who are the angels in the sky? Soldiers? Apocalyptic figures?

        So many questions.

        I can’t imagine many Christians will like this

        2. The very “phallic for the insecure man” Lunar Trump Tower

        —-

        As you say 25th amendment stuff.

        Straitjacket time?

        2. bertl

          Trump should be Sectioned for this attack on Pope Leo (or whatever the US equivalent is) and heaved off to the local Bedlam kicking and screaming in his straight jacket.

          It certainly provides JD Vance with increased room for political manoeuvre.

          As Stalin said, “And how many Divisions does the Pope have?” The USSR is long gone and the Catholic church has continues to grow throught the Global South and throughout the American continent, and while some of its teachings are, for some of the laity, often less practiced than preached, the Papacy – and especially under Francis and Leo – has begun the task of re-building and strengthening its moral core and it has more hearts and minds than the Empire can even begin to imagine, and this will help ensure that Trump is brought down just in time to save and re-build the Republicans for the 2008 election.

    2. hereweare

      “Trump administration officials see three possible scenarios”

      There’s a fourth: Iran sits tight and waits for Trump to reverse course.

  64. Ann

    ‘Everything is gone’: Israel destroys entire villages in Lebanon

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/12/how-israeli-offensive-destroyed-entire-villages-in-lebanon

    Oil Tankers Steer Clear of Hormuz Ahead of US Blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-tankers-steer-clear-hormuz-ahead-us-blockade-2026-04-13/

    Ireland cuts tax on motor fuel as protests grip the country

    https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-dublin-cut-tax-motor-fuel-bid-to-quell-protests

    Trump says US will block ships crossing Strait of Hormuz, is ready to ‘end’ Iran

    https://www.9news.com.au/world/us-israel-iran-war-donald-trump-says-us-will-block-ships-crossing-strait-of-hormuz/2d285cc7-18a9-4061-971e-d0cc6a681169

  65. johnnyme

    Trump lambasts Pope Leo XIV, extending feud over Iran war with first American pontiff

    WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump delivered an extraordinary broadside against Pope Leo XIV on Sunday night, saying he didn’t think the U.S.-born global leader of the Catholic Church is “doing a very good job” and that “he’s a very liberal person,” after suggesting that the pontiff should “stop catering to the Radical Left.”

    Trump’s comments came after Leo suggested over the weekend that a “delusion of omnipotence” is fueling the U.S.-Israel war in Iran. While it’s not unusual for popes and presidents to be at cross purposes, it’s exceedingly rare for the pope to directly criticize a U.S. leader — and Trump’s stinging response is equally unusual.

    “Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy,” the president wrote in his post, adding, “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon.”

    Leo — who is scheduled to leave Monday for an 11-day trip to Africa — has previously said that God “does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them.” He’s also referenced an Old Testament passage from Isaiah, saying that “even though you make many prayers, I will not listen — your hands are full of blood.”

Comments are closed.