Recent Items

Iran War: Waiting Is the Hardest Part, Back to Pakistan, USraeli Attack Incoming?

Posted on by

All of the ominous signs that have preceded previous “suprise attacks” on Iran are here: the markets are closed for the weekend, Kushner and Witkoff are headed to Pakistan for negotiations, and US forces are assembling across West Asia.

Can This Ceasefire Survive Negotiations?

First clue was this tweet from Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi accouncing that he was headed to Islamabad, Pakistan.

Later Friday evening, it was announced that POTUS Trump’s personal envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were headed back to Pakistan for more negotiations.

The BBC reported on the confusion:

It’s currently the middle of the night in Islamabad, where Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived just a few hours ago.

The Pakistani capital has been preparing to host a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran, with road closures in place for the past six days.

The White House said earlier this evening that it was sending US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to the city on Sunday because the Iranians wanted to talk “in person”.

However, Iranian state media is reporting that there are no negotiations with the US planned for Abbas Araghchi’s visit. He will instead focus on reviewing “bilateral matters” between Iran and Pakistan, according to the Iranian embassy.

Given the track record of previous negotiations in the Ramadan War, this takes on an ominous cast, especially given the absence of Vice-President J.D. Vance.

Signs of Military Buildup

Social media gave us plenty of unconfirmed and unverified reasons to worry this was another kayfabe that would lead to renewed attacks on Iran.

Iran says they’re ready to respond:

Also pay no mind to reports that Trump tweeted and deleted something about US planes using Armenian airstrips to attack Iran. That is fake news but it is interesting to speculate who put it out there and why.

Bessent’s Economic Fury

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X early Friday:

Discussions with countries, including our Gulf and Asian allies, about U.S. dollar swap lines are part of ongoing, routine conversations that USTreasury has been having with our partners over a number of years. They are a testament to the U.S. dollar’s primacy and the strength of America’s economic shield.

Additional swap lines can benefit our nation by reinforcing dollar usage and liquidity internationally, maintaining smooth functioning in dollar funding markets, promoting trade and investment with the United States, and, in hypothetical stress scenarios, preventing disorderly sales of U.S. assets as well as disruptions to U.S. markets, businesses, and households.

Many of these countries have pristine sovereign balance sheets and large dollar holdings – larger than many major economies with whom we maintain permanent swap facilities. I applaud our allies’ foresight and watchful risk management by exploring additional financial buffers during periods of market quiescence.

Extending permanent swap lines can be a major first step in creating new U.S. dollar funding centers in the Gulf and Asia.

Dollar dominance and reserve currency status are strengthened by constant long-term initiatives, including countering the growth of problematic, alternative payment systems.

Under @POTUS, this is American Economic Leadership at work.

Iranian Parliamentary Speaker MB Ghalibaf responded:

I guess I should quote a little from the Wednesday NYT story that Speaker Ghalibaf linked to:

“Swap lines, whether it’s from the Federal Reserve or the Treasury, are to maintain order in the dollar funding markets and to prevent the sale of the U.S. assets in a disorderly way,” Mr. Bessent said. “The swap line would both benefit the U.A.E. and the U.S.”

A currency swap would entail the United States purchasing the Emirates’s currency, the dirham, so that it has more dollars for handling its oil sales transactions.

Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, questioned the idea of providing economic support for the Emirates and pointed out that President Trump and his family have personal financial ties to the nation. The Trump administration has been facing criticism over the cost of the conflict in Iran, which many view as unnecessary.

If Trump & co. think the Lords of Shale are going to save them, they might have another think coming, per FT.com (archived):

US shale bosses polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said they did not expect to significantly increase production over the next two years as a result of the “chaos” caused by the Iran war.

According to the anonymous survey of more than 100 oil and gas companies, 43 per cent of executives said they do not expect daily production to increase by more than 250,000 barrels per day in 2026.

For 2027, 32 per cent of the executives said in the quarterly poll released on Thursday that they expected production to rise more than 250,000 b/d but not more than 500,000 b/d.

Who’s winning the standoff? One former White House energy advisor says it’s Iran:

He repeats numerous pieces of dubious Western conventional wisdom about “Iran’s fractured leadership” and estimates that a military campaign to take the Straits of Hormuz would “last about four week”, so yea, salt according to taste.

Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies instructor Esfandyar Batmanghelidj has some thoughts:

Greasy Pete Had a Heckuva Presser

Pentagon advisor Elbridge Colby also sent a very interesting email regarding NATO “partner” Spain:

An internal Pentagon email outlines options for the United States to punish NATO allies it believes failed to support U.S. operations in the war with Iran, including suspending Spain from the alliance and reviewing the U.S. position on Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands, a U.S. official said.

The policy options are detailed in a note prepared by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s top policy adviser, who expressed frustration at some allies’ perceived reluctance or refusal to grant the United States access, basing and overflight rights — known as ABO — for the ​Iran war, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the email.

Hazbollah, the Economist, Prostate Cancer Vexing Netanyahu

Hezbollah is still posting strong from Southern Lebanon:

The Economist, perhaps the zionist mouthpiece with the longest standing chided Netanyahu for his “open-ended” wars (archive):

Mr Trump has tired of the open-endedness of Israel’s wars and the disruption they have caused. Arguably, the American president recognises what Israel—both its government and many of its citizens—refuses to accept: that Israel’s current wars are failures. “They dragged on without a clear diplomatic purpose or outcome,” says Jeremy Issacharoff, a former Israeli ambassador who has also been in charge of strategic affairs at the foreign ministry. “The ceasefires are a positive development, but having them dictated to us by America harms Israel’s deterrence and makes it a client state.”

Inspired by Ben-Gurion, Israel’s national-security doctrine was formulated around three Hebrew watchwords: harta’a (deterrence); hatra’a (early warning); and hachra’a (decisive action). The doctrine’s essence was that a tiny country with a small population in a hostile region could not afford to wage long wars frequently. It needed to wield overwhelming military power to deter its enemies, to be capable of detecting when they were planning an attack and to be able to act quickly, ideally pre-emptively, to secure victory in its enemies’ territory. And, importantly, Israel could not rely on its army alone, wrote Ben-Gurion: “a foreign-policy of peace” was, he wrote, a “fundamental component of security”. Israel needed alliances and international legitimacy to secure its future.

Israel’s current leaders have abandoned many of those principles. Hundreds of thousands of reservists have spent many months fighting in Gaza and Lebanon and enforcing Israel’s increasingly brutal occupation of the West Bank. The devastation of Gaza, where Israel has killed over 70,000 people and where the population has been brought close to starvation, has greatly eroded Israel’s international legitimacy and support, even among its allies.

This is more of the “don’t blame Israel, blame that bad Bibi” hasbara we’ve seen so much of, also note they’re understating the deaths in Gaza by up to a factor of ten, but it’s interesting because of the influence the UK rag has in international zionist circles.

But that’s not the worst of Netanyahu’s worries.

Bibi fesses up to prostate cancer diagnosis, via The Washinton Post (archive):

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday that he had been diagnosed with and treated for early-stage prostate cancer but delayed revealing his condition for two months to avoid it being used against Israel amid the war with Iran.

In a statement posted on X, Netanyahu said he requested publication of his annual health report be delayed so it would not be released “at the height of the war, to prevent the Iranian terror regime from spreading further false propaganda against Israel.”

The prime minister’s annual health report released on Friday detailed how Netanyahu underwent surgery on Dec. 29, 2024, for an enlarged prostate. The surgery had been reported publicly at the time.

A few months ago during a routine follow-up, doctors discovered early-stage prostate cancer, Aron Popovtzer, director of the oncology department at Hadassah Medical Center in Jerusalem, said in a video statement about Netanyahu’s condition. The prime minister was presented the option of active surveillance or radiation therapy, and he chose to have targeted radiation therapy at Hadassah two and a half months ago.

Accounting for Amazon’s Blasted Data Centers

Forbes reported:

In early March, drone strikes damaged Amazon Web Services data centers in Bahrain and the UAE causing a significant and costly disruption in services. More than a month later, AWS dashboards still showed that services remain “disrupted” from the affected region (though some are now resolved); Amazon refunded March credits for those using them, The Register reported, setting the company back an estimated $150 million. Data centers usually have extensive insurance policies, but almost all of them exclude damage from military conflict, says Tom Harper, data center leader at insurance broker Gallagher. “Typically a policy excludes war. So if it’s an active war, it’s not gonna be covered.”
…
In early April, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard published a target list that included facilities belonging to Microsoft, Oracle and Amazon—and appeared to threaten Stargate UAE, a $30 billion-plus joint venture between major players including OpenAI, Oracle, SoftBank and Gulf-based investment firm G42 that Trump helped unveil at the White House last year.

Kurdish Corruption Facing Consequences?

I wonder if this is related to the failed attempt to lure Kurdish militias into attacking Iran earlier this year, via The Amargi:

The U.S. Justice Department has filed a civil forfeiture complaint seeking to seize a Beverly Hills mansion allegedly purchased with proceeds from a scheme to defraud the U.S. military and bribe Mansour Barzani, a senior Peshmerga official in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and brother of current Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and son of former Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani.

According to the complaint, a Virginia-based defense contractor and others obtained more than $700 million from the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency between 2016 and 2020 through fuel delivery contracts linked to Operation Inherent Resolve, the U.S.-led campaign against ISIS.

The Justice Department alleges that the contractor’s officers agreed to pay General Mansour Barzani, a senior Peshmerga official, a bribe of $0.25 per liter in exchange for exclusive access to deliver jet fuel through Erbil International Airport. Competing contractors were allegedly blocked from accessing the airport, while the company received noncompetitive contracts at inflated prices.

Prosecutors say around $30 million from the scheme was transferred to a trust established for Barzani’s private benefit and later used to buy and renovate the Beverly Hills property between 2018 and 2022.

Talking Heads

For our video roundup today, let’s call on Alon Mizrahi and Katie Halper & Aaron Mate of Useful Idiots:

Day 57: expecting great violence by Alon Mizrahi

The delays, trickery, deceit and preparations are done. The next phase is a renewal of hostilities on a much more intense and destructive level

Read on Substack

This week we’re looking at the latest in Trump’s regime-change war on Iran and how it’s spilled over into Lebanon, where Israel has just killed another journalist, Amal Khalil.

Khalil was assassinated in a “double tap” strike while she was reporting in South Lebanon: the Israelis first hit her car, and then the house she fled to in an attempt to seek refuge. Israeli soldiers then blocked rescue workers from reaching her and she died under the rubble.

She is the latest in the hundreds of journalists who have been targeted and killed by Israel since October 7th.

To discuss Amal Khalil, the broader regime-change war in Iran, and why Israel is “afraid” of invading Lebanon, we speak with Mohamad Hasan Sweidan, researcher and academic based in Beirut.

Useful Idiots: What explains Hezbollah’s resilience? They lost their leader, they suffered very big setbacks with the pager attacks, and lost their land bridge in Syria, through which they could receive arms from Iran.

But yet on the ground in Lebanon, they’re still able to fight toe-to-toe with Israel and impose serious costs, to the point where now Israel is afraid of invading and engaging in another land war.

So what explains how Hezbollah, which many people thought was on its last legs, has been able to persevere and still be effective militarily?

Mohamad Hasan Sweidan: There are three main reasons.

Number one is ideology. Hezbollah has a very strong religious ideology that doesn’t believe in backing off. It believes it should continue fighting the oppressor until the end.

Number two is that Hezbollah doesn’t have a choice. If they don’t rebuild themselves and if they don’t return to the fight, then all of Hezbollah will be destroyed. It’s a battle of no choice. And when you are in a battle of no choice, you continue till the end.

Number three: Hezbollah represents a huge amount of the people inside of the country. There are Lebanese people who believe in resistance. So if Hezbollah decides to disarm, then you have other Lebanese people who will hold the weapons and go defend the land. Because history proved that the only way to defend the land is when you become a resistance.

Bonus: Jeffrey Sachs on Tucker Carlson.

We’ll let Explosive Media (the pre-eminent “Iranian Lego video” maker) have the last word:

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Subscribe to Post Comments
131 comments

  2. The Rev Kev

    Now things are getting even weirder. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announces that he is going for talks with Pakistan, Oman and the Russian Federation. Hearing this, Trump sends Kushner and Witkoff to Pakistan and says that the Iranians asked for a meeting and will give him everything that he wants. Vance is ready to go to Pakistan as well. Araghchi then says he has no idea what Trump is talking about as no meetings are planned as in at all. The only thing that makes sense is that Trump will announce that the Iranians refused to meet with his “peace” delegation and have broken off contact. You know, like Vance did at the last negotiations when he left early. And this Trump will then use as a casus belli to restart the war and try to take out Iranian positions along the Strait of Hormuz. And as you have all those aerial tankers at Ben Gurion airport, that means that they will refuel Israeli planes for an attack on Iran.

    2. Jeff W

      I was trying to make sense of it all, too.

      The only thing that makes sense is that Trump will announce that the Iranians refused to meet with his “peace” delegation and have broken off contact.

      Well, it makes sense only in the warped, delusional mind of President Trump—which is not to say that isn’t what’s going on. Tehran has made it crystal clear that there are no negotiations going on and so the whole world will view that announcement as just another statement divorced from reality. It’s all completely nuts, if that’s what’s happening but, then again, nothing from the US side so far has been all that rational.

      1. Samuel Conner

        I think that “divorced from reality” is too strong. There may be sense to DJT’s remarks, but the sense is obscure to us because he is doing different things in different utterances, such as “calming markets”, “hoping to deceive adversaries”, “bluffing to intimidate adversaries”, “projecting his own wishes or situation onto the adversary, or vice versa.” I think the only common factor here is “not literally true”.

        Following Michael Wolff (who I think has a better read of DJT than most), which sense is intended in any given utterance is based on how DJT is feeling and what he is thinking at the moment of the utterance. There isn’t a plan or a policy that can be inferred from the utterances themselves. So from the outside it does look incoherent.

        Ignore the rhetoric and focus on concrete actions. On that basis, I think one can guess that DJT intends to escalate, though the concrete actions themselves could be a bluff.

        —-

        Compare with the Russians and the Iranians, who by comparison are highly forthright and consistent in their diplomatic communications, and who do what they say they will do.

        Hopefully Iranian promises of a “largest ever in history” retaliatory missile strike will focus the minds of DJT’s military advisors and key chain-of-command actors.

        The report that JCS chair Caine has refused an illegal request from DJT is hopeful. I hope that it is true.

        1. dearieme

          “I think one can guess that DJT intends to escalate” You reckon? I suspect that the forces he has accumulated in the region are far too weak for that. We shall see.

          1. natureboy

            Agreed. Sending K&W Real Estate to Islamabad for optical purposes can just as easily be taken is a sign that Trump has no stomach for escalation — that’s a lot of valuable market closure time that could have been used to deliver the promised coup de grace — which he knows will have extremely uncomfortable results for our Gulf “allies” and the very large US (and Trump family) interests there.

        2. jonboinAR

          Yep, ignore Trump’s rhetoric, as much as possible. Trump basically BS’s all the time, manipulating perceptions, saying, “Hey, look over there!” Saying that, it looks to me that he’s in way over his head, but I can’t be sure.

      2. thoughtfulperson

        The US regime is just continuing to attempt to keep the price of oil down and keep the u s stock market steady. Thus the constant stream of lies about what Iran is doing from the u.s.. Occasionally the regime may also be creating opportunities for insiders to make huge profits on insider trades.

        I find better sources about what a country is doing start with sources inside the state, certainly not the leaders of a nation at war with a state, and even worse the instigator of an agressive illegal war.

        1. Mar-a-Loco

          Could Kushner and Witkoff possibly be using the ruse of peace talks as a cover to negotiate a joint venture luxury resort/casino in Karachi or Gwadar with possibly a Trump-branded golf course?

    3. Dingleberry

      Is Iran going to sit there get sucker punched a second time? 😵
      Fool me once and all that… 🫠

      1. hereweare

        If Naked Capitalism is aware of buildups of enemy aircraft in Israel and the UAE, it’s a safe bet Iran already has precise coordinates of the planes’ most vulnerable parts. From an X post above, just under “Iran says they’re ready to respond”:
        A source close to Ghalibaf says Iran has prepared for “the largest missile launch in history” targeting Israel and US-allied Arab states, ready to fire “upon observing any signs of any strike” this weekend.

        1. dearieme

          If I were Iran I’d attack those planes while they are sitting exposed on the ground. But I suppose that would depend on just what the leadership(s?) hopes to achieve.

          They are revolutionaries so many of them will have enriched themselves. Will they put preserving their wealth high on their lists of desirable outcomes? How many of them? How high? All is obscure.

          The war is so foolish that I can see why people wonder whether it can be true that Netanyahu threatened Trump with assassination. I doubt it but I can see why people clutch at straws in search of an explanation.

          1. Lefty Godot

            The refueling planes sitting on runways would seem to be a prime target. If a significant number of those start to go airborne the Iranians had better act fast.

            I wonder also whether the carriers and their destroyer escorts are far enough out to stay unscathed in a really big attack. Not in danger of being sunk, which is probably a totally impractical goal, but maybe having their radio towers and radar dishes blown up. Could a drone swarm make it 1000 km. to do that kind of damage?

            1. John k

              Planes on the ground in Uae make no sense to me, either attack or refueling ones. The bombers hardly need refueling to cross the gulf. In fact, I would guess they have been firing their standoff missiles well on the other side of the gulf, right? Ben gutrion, maybe, they’d have enough time to get off the ground if stuff incoming. Something seems off… painted on the tarmac? Mirage?

              1. TimH

                Could possibly be barely-operational planes from the boneyard as a feint, but the movements would surely be spotted.

          2. Christopher Mann

            “They are revolutionaries so many of them will have enriched themselves. Will they put preserving their wealth high on their lists of desirable outcomes? ”

            Where is your evidence for this? I believe many of the murdered Iranian leadership did not even own their own homes and lived extremely modestly. It seems to be impossible for Westoids to accept that ‘owning stuff’ is not the most important thing in life for people in other cultures. “Possessions are a disease with them” springs to mind.

            1. frank

              They made bank because they have Persian rugs?
              It is a revolutionary society with moral standing.

        2. Matthew

          Part of the Hamlet-like dithering may involve cold sweats and shouting matches in the WH. Blinded by hubris though they may be, they must know that the next big move may spell real catastrophe. All it will take is one big hit in Israel or amidships of some aircraft carrier–some deaths in the 100s instead of 1s and 2s–and the dogs may turn for good on Trump and the Rs. The bigger the onslaught the bigger the risk(s), and they can’t control for a lot of them; they just can’t.*

          As for a casus belli,they don’t need one; they have barely troubled about pretexts up to now. And let’s be honest, the MSM was ready to play along/playing along until things went so far south that they looked stupid denying it. That includes outlets like the NYTimes, where even mild scrutiny show that they were setting the table for weeks before we started bombing, Dems like Hillary Clinton who spoke openly about being behind the first week of bombings in June last year. (So much of the ugly is taken for granted; they have us trained to accept insanity in so many domains.) What was the casus belli last June? Degrading a projected future Iranian nuclear project is all they’ve had for years. . .

          I’m not even sure that the US hasa lot of good hard targets? Absent nukes or mass murder, which I don’t think Trump or the Rs, at this stage, can sustain, internationally or domestically. The only thing remotely convincing that I’ve seen is the idea of bombing all of the installations that the Iranians have dotted around Hormuz, thereby assuring safe passage. But would that assure it? With rocket launchers hidden in caves, in tranches, I’ll bet military analysts would have 100s of doubts. Would love to see some analysis here at NC of that idea.

    4. Carolinian

      Yours is also Larry Johnson’s prediction.

      Re Netanyahu–Alastair Crooke revealed months ago that he has a heart condition also and predicted (incorrectly) that this would play a role in his ouster. But it could be that this perverse individual who has done so much harm to Israel and the region is losing his health even as our president is losing his mind. History is not an algorithm even if human nature keeps rhyming.

      And re Ben Gurion there are some who say Greater Israel was always his goal and certainly the once dominant Labor seemed as eager to establish settlements and “facts on the ground” as the now dominant rightwing zealots. It’s a colonialist mentality similar to South Africa and when America liberals–who once opposed colonialism–support its continuation (as they did in Vietnam) they too are being hypocrites.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Not hard to work out what Trump is up to. For him, it is all about narratives and made up facts like those eight women that were due to be hanged in Iran – who didn’t actually exist. Kushner and Witkoff are liable to arrive in Pakistan just as Araghchi’s plane is taking off. So why bother flying half way around the planet? Trump afterwards will just make up his own facts and use them for a justification for whatever he is about to do. Whatever he does, you can bet that it will be violent and stupid.

        1. hereweare

          BBC radio said, around an hour ago, that Kushner and Witkoff are still in the USA. CNN reorted, around twenty minutes ago:
          US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to depart for Pakistan today,

            1. TimH

              Time to be very wary about assassination attempts by USA pretending it were Bibi wot dunnit, honest, guv.

            2. Jeff W

              According to the AP here, regarding the calling off of the dispatch of the “envoys,” “Trump said on social media: ‘If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!’”—which is why the bit about the Iranians wanting to talk “in person” sounded absurd, even not taking into account that the Iranians are not the ones wanting to talk and certainly the last people they’d want to talk to are Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

              As for why any of this occurred, I don’t even care to speculate, given the myriad of reasons mentioned by Samuel Conner above why Trump might say anything. At least Trump isn’t turning the whole thing into another excuse to escalate (as far as I know).

        2. Tom Stone

          Witkoff had reservations at a GREAT Chinese restaurant in Islamabad and didn’t want to cancel because the waiting list is so long.

          1. hereweare

            Charlie’s due in the Fatherland soon. Perhaps Witkoff thinks the chance of grovelling before a real king beats kowtowing to a wannabe one, so Islamabad can wait.

        3. jonboinAR

          All Trump says is BS, often meant to advance some less than tactical goal, like immediate perception. I mean (as far as I can tell), all of it.

      2. dearieme

        “when America liberals–who once opposed colonialism–” Ho, ho. Then they’d return their real estate to the Red Indians, wouldn’t they? Hypocrites!

    5. Cocomaan

      They’re all liars, and the Iranian regime is taking chaos messaging lessons from Trump. I do not take any diplomatic chatter at this point at face value because it’s clear that Iran isn’t unified – what large country is? – and the US can’t tell the truth to save its life.

      1. natureboy

        This idea of a fracturing opposition appears to come from the aging trope that all opposition to the US Empire of Freedom and Democracy is run by brutal dictators who enforce iron discipline on their enslaved minions and always act with unified purpose — the phalanx of evil, marching in perfect order against the fresh morning breeze of western civilization’s inevitable advance. Any sign of nuance or discussion within the enemy “regime” is proof that the onslaught of righteousness is taking its toll.

  3. HH

    It would appear that Vance and Rubio are trying to distance themselves from this fiasco as much as possible. The best Trump can hope for is a declared victory and major concessions to Iran. The Zionist neocons confused political power with military power, and now they are learning the difference. The declining U.S. military establishment, hollowed out by corruption and incompetence, can’t enforce Trump’s imperial dictates.

      1. ISL

        Egads. I had to stop every few seconds to look at the scenes. Wow! SO many hard-hitting details. It’s almost like Iranian propaganda is aimed at regime change in DC. Well one can dream.

  5. GlassHammer

    For those most directly exposed to the energy crisis and its downstream effects, you really should treat it like a “multi-month” if not “years long” natural disaster.

    Your going to collapse you standard of living in a way your not ready for and you won’t be able to counter that collapse in any meaningful way. (Just looking at diesel prices alone and knowing how much it determines the entire logistics network of a region, I do not know hoe some people are going to adapt to this.)

    I just hope some are getting ready in whatever manner they can because from what I see it only gets harder from here.

            1. Wukchumni

              I read Tainter’s book around the turn of the century and it seemed so far out back then, the worldwide collapse now looming.

              The thing about past collapses is most all of them were strictly regional, the Mayans had no idea the Roman Empire existed, nor did the Anasazi have any inkling that Europeans were so well off when Chaco Canyon was abandoned, that they could have 8 or 9 spendy Crusades.

          3. Henry Moon Pie

            A more recent take on collapse is Aussie Luke Kemp’s Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse. Since Kemp views most governments as gangs extorting money and goods from the populace with their monopoly on force, it’s not surprising that he argues that collapse often represents an improvement in living for the oppressed classes.

            Kemp talks about Goliath with Nate Hagens.

            1. Oregon Lawhobbit

              As I understand it, when the Roman Empire was collapsing, the fringes often welcomed the “barbarian” invaders, since they demanded less in the way of resources from the inhabitants than the Empire itself did.

  6. JohnH

    So if the Gulf states have frantically been selling assets to the point that they’ve only got illiquid assets left, and Treasury is being forced to extend SWAP lines to provide them with cash, why hasn’t Mr. Market been affected?

    I suspect that the Plunge Protection Team has been burning the midnight oil…US government market manipulation on steroids.

    1. ilsm

      They need to liquidate US Treasuries, the more, the more Bessent folds and swaps!

      Inconsiderate given Bessent has to raise huge cash this year.

  7. Wukchumni

    The parallels of the Shah and Bibi going through life ending health issues as things are coming a cropper, isn’t lost on me.

    1. The Rev Kev

      But would Bibi go to the US for medical treatment? The Shah did and it didn’t end well for him.

    2. Ben Panga

      I don’t think prostate cancer in someone of Bibi’s age is likely to be life ending. It’s pretty common in old men and rarely what kills them.

        1. Ann

          Except when the patient has been taking testosterone. Then the cancer moves quickly and kills them. Most male leaders these days take it and some females take it. My father took it and prostate cancer killed him quickly after it was diagnosed.

          And it makes you very aggressive.

        2. Trees&Trunks

          I would prescribe him chemo-therapy malkng sure he would feel nausea and vomit every day thinking that maybe death is better

          1. Henry Moon Pie

            Been there, done that, but for rectal cancer, not prostate. Prostate cancer is fueled by testosterone, so the common treatment is “ADT” (Androgen Deprivation Therapy), a combination of injections and pills that shut down testosterone production. In most cases, the prostate cancer shuts down too, and the PSA becomes undetectable. That may be what the Bibi press releases mean about “no sign of cancer.”

            The prostate cancer eventually learns to grow without testosterone, plus the ADT therapy causes all the ill effects of menopause: hot flashes and bone loss being among them. I went off ADT 5 months ago after 2 years of treatment. I’m checked every 3 months with a PSA test. That’s expected to rise as testosterone returns, but if it continues to rise beyond the normal range, it’s time to go back through PET scans, radiation, maybe more ADT.

            It’s playing whack-a-mole until you can’t.

            So if Bibi is on ADT, maybe we’ll see a kinder, gentler Bibi.

      2. Karen

        I just read a local obit that stated the deceased lasted only 37 days after his prostrate cancer diagnosis. If only the same prognosis applied for Nut-n-Yahoo.

        My husband knew another guy who was diagnosed with “Stage 10” (as his doctor described it) prostrate cancer. He never had any enlargement, no warning other than a high PSA level. Dead in less than a year. While not common it can kill fast.

        1. Huey

          Prostate cancer doesn’t really kill you by its size though. The ideal with cancers is to catch them early, when they’re still small, since by the time they’re big enough to notice (like for most cancers) there’s a good chance that they’ll have spread, making total eradication very hard/impossible.

          Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia is a common cause of enlarged prostates, but that’s a different disease process from cancer.

      3. Revenant

        Yes, it’s usually the missiles.

        Bibi still hasn’t made a physical public appearance since March….

  8. dingusansich

    Speaker of the Iranian parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf:

    Their frontline is the yield curve.

    That’s a keeper.

  9. ambrit

    One thing I have been encountering recently is TACO fatigue. People are getting worn out by the constant whip sawing that Trump is subjecting the world public to. This can develop into disinterest. I won’t credit this Administration with the level of Machiavellian machinations needed to induce such an effect, but it is growing none the less.
    Stay safe.

    1. Carolinian

      Yes this movie has a bad plot. Nihilism is boring.

      Of course in the H’wood “Golden Age” plots were formulaic with neat moral resolutions, but at least that represented some sort of ethical stability in a country with so many contradictions. Precarity is bad for the digestion.

  10. Danco

    Thank you for everything you are doing.
    I’m reading various reports from reasonably trustworthy sources about the weather in Iran and surrounding areas. After droughts lasting many years the region is experiencing rain and cooling weather. Dams are full to overflowing and agriculture is thriving after years of marginal cropping. Some are claiming this is related to the destruction of American radar and other high tech facilities. I’m agnostic on these claims currently, but wondered if anyone with a better understanding of the tech involved might chip in?

    1. Samuel Conner

      I think that the energy requirements to radically modify weather over a region as large as Iran would be challenging for current technology. It certainly is far greater than the power ratings of regional radar installations.

      The question to ask is “what else is going on at the current time in the global weather system?” Something that immediately comes to mind is “what is going on in terms of the Pacific oscillation El Nino vs La Nina?”

      Google search (AI mode, admittedly, so possibly an hallucination) asserts that El Nino correlates with wetter weather in Iran.

      Here’s a human result (with more nuance than the AI result):

      https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy…51.2897A/abstract

      money quote from the abstract: “In spite of the seasonality of the ENSO signal and its interevent variability, annually all regions of Iran are anomalously wet during the EP [Eastern Pacific] El Niño, and dry during La Niña events. The CP [Central Pacific] El Niño events result in anomalously wet conditions over northwestern, northern, northeastern and western Iran, but dry conditions over central, eastern, southwestern, southern and southeastern Iran. However, the impact of the CP El Niño on the annual precipitation of Iran is not statistically significant, in contrast to the statistically significant impact of both La Niña and the EP El Niño.”

      Eastern Pacific is currently believed to be transitioning into El Nino conditions. (One might even interpret the correlation in a predictive way, that the wet conditions in Iran suggest that there will be EP El Nino this year.)

      I think this is probably the explanation, including of the prior dry conditions.

  11. johnnyme

    60 former UK ambassadors warn of Israel’s West Bank annexation steps

    A group of former British diplomats has called on the UK and its allies to take stronger action against Israeli settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, warning that current policies risk enabling annexation and undermining international law.

    In a letter published in the Financial Times on Friday, more than 80 former diplomats – including 60 ambassadors, high commissioners and senior officials – said Israel’s expansionist activity and policies in the occupied Palestinian territories amounted to “accelerating annexation.”

    The signatories called for the EU to suspend its association agreement with Israel, ban trade with settlements, halt arms transfers and restrict Israel’s participation in EU programs. They also urged the UK to ban all trade with settlements and review its agreements with Israel.

    Original Financial Times article is paywalled.

  12. Wukchumni

    Time is on my side, yes it is
    Time is on my side, yes it is

    Now you always say
    That you want to be free of a nuclear Iran possibility
    But you’ll come running back (I said you would Bibi)
    You’ll come running back (I said so many times before)
    You’ll come running back to me

    Oh, time is on my side, yes it is
    Time is on my side, yes it is

    You’re searching for end times
    But just wait and see
    You’ll come running back (I won’t have to worry no more)
    You’ll come running back (spend the rest of my life with you, Bibi)
    You’ll come running back to me

    Go ahead, go ahead and light up Tehran
    And Bibi do everything your heart desires
    Remember, I’ll always be around
    And I know, I know like I told you so many times before
    You’re gonna come back, Bibi
    ‘Cause I know
    You’re gonna come back knocking
    Yeah, knocking right on my door
    Yes, yes!

    Well, time is on my side, yes it is
    Time is on my side, yes it is

    ‘Cause I got the real Zionist love
    The kind that you need
    You’ll come running back (I said you would, Bibi)
    You’ll come running back (I don’t always said you would)
    You’ll come running back to me (I won’t have to worry no more)

    Yes time, time, time is on my side, yes it is
    Time, time, time is on my side, yes it is
    Oh, time, time, time is on my side, yes it is
    I said, time, time, time is on my side, yes it is
    Oh, time, time, time is on my side
    Yeah, time, time, time is on my side

    Time is on my Side, by the Rolling Stones

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEj8lUx0gwY&list=RDsEj8lUx0gwY

    1. Martin Oline

      I always thought it was a Stones song too, but I later learned the great Irma Thomas recorded a version before them. Looking for an answer I find that “Time Is on My Side” is a song written by Jerry Ragovoy (using the pseudonym “Norman Meade”). First recorded by jazz trombonist Kai Winding and his orchestra in 1963, it was covered (with additional lyrics by Jimmy Norman) by both soul singer Irma Thomas and later the Rolling Stones in 1964.
      More useless information for the commentariat. Here is a link to Irma Thomas’ version of Time Is On My Side.

      1. Henry Moon Pie

        When I was a Yute, we had a “teen hangout” place in our tiny town sponsored by the local Methodist pastor. A local garage band made up of local high school kids played their pretty limited repertoire, and the “slow song” they knew was “Time Is On My Side.” They played it over and over and…

        Whenever there was a party with a record player, it was “My Girl” that got repeated.

      2. Nat Wilson Turner Post author

        Thanks for saving me the effort of assigning correct credt, Martin Oline!

      3. Martin Oline

        I used to regularly go to Mark Naftalin’s Blue Monday Party at The Sleeping Lady when I lived in Fairfax, Ca. He was the piano player for the Paul Butterfield Blues Band. It was about the only venue in town where you could take children. Irma Thomas played the Marin County fair sometime around 1980 – 1. This is about a 25 minute show from 1983 and it appears to be audio only, recorded at Uncle Charlies instead of the Sleeping Lady Cafe. If you want to hear some of her work here is a small sample. Mark Naftalin’s Blue Monday Party at Uncle Charlies in Corte Madera, Ca. (This link does not start at the beginning)

    1. catchymango

      important context on the India Chabahar exit, the US had given the project a sanctions waiver in the fall that expires tomorrow. So transferring ownership to an Iranian entity is a maneuver to avoid reimposition of secondary sanctions on India Ports Global, as the US does not appear to be willing to issue an extension.

      So this isn’t necessarily an indication of any change in India’s policy, at least according to this article which notes the agreement anticipates the Indian firm returning to the project once sanctions are lifted (or some other workaround is found).

      https://www.islamtimes.com/en/news/1276698/india-weighs-transfer-of-chabahar-port-operations-to-iranian-firm

  14. ilsm

    Context for bombing Iran.

    These 40 days’ bombing was a tiny fraction of US bombing in Hanoi/Haiphong known as Linebacker II.

    Despite precision you must consider tonnage, a precise 500 pounds is not that much! Schools and hospital are not tactical targets!

    While Iran has dozens of cities bigger than Haiphong!

    Trump can bomb away, it is minimal.

    Iran probably has the GCC, and Israeli desalination plants assigned to missiles……

      1. ilsm

        I am truly sorry!

        US and IDF are cruelly inattentive to “collateral damage”. So much so as it may be a tactic, same as Bomber Harris and Curtis Lemay!

        I meant Trump’s and most of the IDF bombing has minimum strategy effect!

        I am a continuing penitent from my time in SAC. I will strive to be less callous!

    2. Revenant

      The US has bombed nothing. It cannot send B52’s etc into active Iranian air defences.

      Everything has been hit with standoff weapons – air-launched and sea-launched missiles – and they are running out of those.

  15. DJG, Reality Czar

    Elbridge Colby of the Francisco Franco wing of the Catholic Church is now threatening Spain (where they know something about the effects of Francisco Franco) and the U.K. (which is now all upset over its remaining scraps of empire).

    National Catholic Reporter published an interview with him on 3 September 2024: “I wouldn’t presume to say I’m a good Catholic or a bad Catholic,” said Colby, who cites Pope Benedict XVI as an inspiration for being a great Catholic who is also attuned to the importance of rationality.

    This is when Papa Francesco was still alive and talking about “a piecemeal third world war” (una terza guerra mondiale a pezzi).

    Colby is just one more blowhard. He would be one more embarrassing Foghorn Leghorn in a political class of Foghorn Leghorns and Foghorn Galline, except that real people are being really killed.

    Pope Ratzi the Quitter, ora pro nobis. Sheesh.

    1. Nat Wilson Turner Post author

      Thanks for the insight on the intra-catholic politics. Benedict XVI — ghoul’s ghoul! No wonder that’s where Colby is coming from.

  16. The Rev Kev

    ‘An internal Pentagon email outlines options for the United States to punish NATO allies it believes failed to support U.S. operations in the war with Iran, including suspending Spain from the alliance’

    I am given to understand that there is no mechanism in the NATO charter for suspending a member but that won’t stop Trump. Of course if “daddy” managed to convince Rutte to do this, Spain can simply say that as this is so, then the US can evacuate all their personal from that major air base in Seville as well as the naval port at Cádiz until they are full members again. In addition, they will halt all payments for NATO membership as well. Considering that Spain is at the far west of Europe, who is going to attack them? Russia? But the Pentagon will never let Trump endanger those two US bases in Spain. They are too strategic.

  17. thoughtfulperson

    Just reading an update at aljazeera:

    “Israel continues its attacks on southern Lebanon, killing at least four people in the town of Yahmor al-Shaqif. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu says his forces have “full freedom of action” in Lebanon, despite a three-week extension of the ceasefire with Hezbollah.”

    So I guess the “cease fire” refers to *North* of the Litani River”.

      1. JonnyJames

        Headline should read “Hezbollah retaliates against Israeli violations of ceasefire” But victims must always be blamed.

        1. ISL

          Headline should read “Hezbollah retaliates against Israeli violations of ceasefire (See and fire).” But victims must always be blamed.

          Yup, Israel is the victim – it has to suffer with a guilty conscience for those it kills in perpetrating the worst crime there is, “Genocide.” Except its religion says the souls of those they kill do not count, so no guilt (for its secular leaders). This needs a lego video to amplify global anger.

    2. ilsm

      All I know of the Lebanon cease fire extension is from radio news.

      Seems to be between the IDF and the Israeli friendly government in Beirut, which has no real army.

      Trump sees aiding Lebanon to oust Hizbolah as an object not to be slowed by cease fire.

      Hizbolah knows and acts/reacts.

      Whom Netanyahu calls terrorist are perpetual targets, including the women and children who could someday be real…..

    3. Don

      Right, south of the Litani is evidently no longer Lebanon; it’s the north of Israel — again.

  18. Pearl Rangefinder

    Some more Iran war lubricant industry developments/supply apocalypse stuff for you all:

    The Lyden Oil Company, a lubricant retailer based in Ohio, has a brief but detailed market update for April for their customers detailing the supply disruptions and cost increases to come in the lubricants business: (April 20 2026) Understanding the Disconnect Between Oil Market Headlines and Lubricant Costs

    Key points:

    U.S. Premium Base Oil Now Offline or Stranded: 35–40%

    World’s Largest Premium Base Oil Plant — Minimum Downtime: 1 Year+
    The Pearl GTL facility in Qatar was damaged following Iranian missile strikes March 18th. Repairs cannot begin until bombing stops. The U.S. was Qatar’s single largest export customer.

    Earliest New Domestic Replacement Capacity Available: 2027
    New U.S. base oil production under development will not come online until 2027. There is no near-term domestic fix for what has been lost.

    Physical Facility Damage
    Three major base oil facilities that together supply roughly 27% of global and 40% of U.S. premium base oil are now offline, under force majeure, or severely curtailed. These are structural losses that diplomatic progress cannot reverse. Repairs cannot begin until active conflict fully stops. Industry experts place minimum downtime at one year or more.

    The Diesel Effect
    Refineries that were not damaged are still producing less base oil. When diesel prices surge, refineries redirect their processing capacity toward diesel production because it is more profitable in that moment. This is happening now at fully operational facilities worldwide, adding supply pressure on top of the physical destruction already occurring in the Gulf.

    Global Ripple Effects
    Roughly 30% of U.S. premium base oil imports come from South Korea, a country not involved in the conflict. South Korean refineries depend heavily on Persian Gulf crude. As that crude becomes scarce or rerouted, Korean base oil output drops. This supply pressure affects what distributors pay, entirely independent of what financial headlines report.

    Additionally, the website JobbersWorld is a newsletter that tracks lubricant industry developments, and has been tracking all the Iran war related price increases in base oil stocks (ie: the raw ingredients that makes up all lubricants), latest notifications to hit for April 23rd here: (April 23 2026) More Price Increase Notifications

    What things are looking like for US customers right now (‘customers’ being blenders and folks like Lyden Oil mentioned above, who buy base oils in the millions of gallons):

    Smitty’s Supply, in an April 22, 2026 notice, announced cumulative increases—inclusive of a prior action—effective April 27 for wholesale accounts and May 4 for local delivery accounts, to be applied to pre–April 10 pricing:

    Economy Grade Lubricants: $3.50 per gallon
    Synthetic Lubricants: $5.00 per gallon
    All Other Lubricating Oils & Fluids: $4.00 per gallon
    Grease Products: $0.54 per pound
    Smitty’s Supply notes that these adjustments represent the total cumulative increase, inclusive of its prior pricing action.

    Highline Warren, in an April 15, 2026 notice, announced additional increases following prior March actions, effective April 20, 2026:

    Group II Lubricants: up to $2.74 per gallon
    Group III Lubricants: up to $3.00 per gallon
    Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF): up to $0.21 per gallon
    RV Antifreeze (-50): Ethanol up to $0.54 per gallon; Propylene Glycol up to $2.61 per gallon
    Washer Fluid: up to $0.22 per gallon
    National Branded Petroleum-Based Products: up to 30%

    Highline Warren notes that due to the continued pace and scale of cost escalation, an additional pricing action is necessary on top of the previously consolidated March 16 and March 30 increases.

    So, pretty much across the board prices increases, with more to come. For us consumer plebeians and motorhead aficionados, I’d suggest if you need motor oil, transmission fluid, grease, etc within the next year or so, to buy yourself enough to cover your needs for the next year, because the industry’s exposure to this mess is looking fairly severe and getting worse by the day.

    2. ambrit

      News I can use. Thanks.
      Also, tangentially, DEF, used in diesel fuel for trucks is “32.5% high-purity urea and 67.5% deionized water.”
      Urea is industrially made from petroleum using the Haber-Bosch process. See:
      “The large-scale production of urea relies on the industrial synthesis of ammonia and carbon dioxide. This method is often integrated with ammonia production plants because carbon dioxide is a byproduct of that process. This commercial method is carried out under demanding conditions of high temperature and pressure to drive the necessary chemical reactions. The overall process is typically broken down into two main, sequential reaction stages that occur within a specialized reactor.
      The initial stage involves the fast, exothermic reaction of liquid ammonia (NH3) and gaseous carbon dioxide (CO2) to create an intermediate compound called ammonium carbamate (NH2-COONH4). This reaction happens rapidly when the raw materials are combined at a high pressure, often around 240 bar, and moderate temperature. The formation of ammonium carbamate is an equilibrium-driven reaction that is heavily favored by the high pressure.
      The second stage is the conversion of the newly formed ammonium carbamate into urea (NH2-CONH2) and water (H2O). This dehydration reaction is much slower and absorbs heat from the system, meaning it is an endothermic process. To maximize the conversion rate, which typically reaches about 78% in the first reactor, the system is maintained at elevated temperatures, often between 130C and 150C. The final step involves purifying the urea solution by reducing pressure and applying heat to decompose unreacted ammonium carbamate back into ammonia and carbon dioxide. These components are then recycled back into the process to improve efficiency.”
      This adds another layer of “difficulty” to the long-distance trucking process. A shortage of DEF, absent a relaxing of regulations, will slow down the trucking industry.
      We don’t know what trouble is yet.
      Stay safe. Prepare for impact.

  19. Ann

    NBC News Drops Bombshell Report on War Battle Damage: ‘Far Worse’ Than previously Said.

    https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/nbc-news-drops-bombshell-report-on-trump-war-battle-damage-far-worse-than-trump-team-said/

    Palantir employees are talking about company’s “descent into fascism”

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/04/palantir-employees-are-talking-about-companys-descent-into-fascism/

    Trump’s Own Voters Turn on Him in Shock New Impeachment Poll – The new numbers put Trump at the same approval as the “peak of the Watergate scandal,” the pollster said.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-own-maga-voters-turn-on-him-in-wild-new-impeachment-poll/

    1. Nat Wilson Turner Post author

      good stuff as always, Ann! Kind of relieved your links list is shorter today!

    2. The Rev Kev

      ‘NBC News Drops Bombshell Report on War Battle Damage: ‘Far Worse’ Than previously Said.’

      They are saying that it will cost billions of dollars to repair those bases. That is assuming that they will ever be rebuilt at all.

  20. AG

    Dimitri Lascaris Inside Iran

    He produced 4 films about his stay in Iran

    April 24, 2026

    Dimitri Lascaris spent 11 days in Iran last month and was the first Westerner to show there was no military base near the school the U.S. struck, killing 168 schoolchildren. Here are four of his films from Iran.

    each film between 20 and 30 minutes
    https://consortiumnews.com/2026/04/24/watch-inside-iran/

  21. XXYY

    Satellite imagery from April 20 also shows 7 U.S. Air Force aerial refueling aircraft, along with a C-17A strategic transport aircraft.

    Maybe it seems obvious, but shouldn’t Iran be targeting this air base with missiles right now before the US attacks?

    The hallmark of the age of missiles and satellite overviews is that you can’t gather anything of any size in one spot lest the other side blow it to hell. I don’t like to think that Iranian military specialists haven’t learned this lesson.

    1. .Tom

      I imagine those are somewhere on Iran’s target list. And I expect Iran is able to start firing at its targets at a moment’s notice. But it seems plain to me that Iran is going out of its way to show the world how aggressive, unreasonable and duplicitous the USA and Israel are while Iran is reasonable, predictable and uses its military capability only in defense and retaliation. In other words Iran has a political strategy that leads to a military doctrine of not shooting first.

    2. Curious

      It’s easy to say from afar. It makes sense removed from the fighting zone. The ceasefire that the Iranians agreed to is over. Trump extending it unilaterally should mean nothing to Iran. The planes seem to be sitting ducks.

      However, it means Iran will get bombed again, and that’s not something I’d want to invite on myself if I were Iran.

      Their main weapon (Strait closure) is still firing. Why not avoid taking hits yourself for as long as you can. Always time to hit Israel and planes after you are struck first.

    3. ilsm

      If US is planning on landing that C-17 somewhere in Iran, I hope they have surveyed the runway so the C-17 don’t sink into the runway like those 2 MC 130’s in Isafhan!

    4. NotThePilot

      I don’t know the exact point the Iranians would hit “go” on striking bases again. It’s probably a function of wanting the US to commit more equipment for destruction as much as the diplomatic question of “is Trump bluffing?” Another factor is that if their intel is good enough and the missile flight time is short enough, they can wait for pretty late signals that the US is attacking.

      One thing I don’t see others mentioning though is that the US is now probably on a jet fuel budget, even if it doesn’t act like it yet. And large USAF cargo & refueler planes will burn through stocks like nothing. It probably won’t constrain the USAF directly, but only if the government diverts barrels from civilian aviation.

      So in a weird way, Iran is maybe using fuel as the USAF’s Achilles’ heel to establish the same sort of economic asymmetry with manned aircraft as the shahed drone does for air-defenses. The longer the US ignores that, the more economic damage the US accumulates.

    5. Felix_47

      Agree about the refueling tankers. That was the US strategy against the Nazi U-boats. We wiped out the refueling subs and the rest were crippled. In addition even a near miss by a ballistic missile could take out an aircraft carrier. I suspect the Iranians are being careful to not appear too “terroristic” and the PR advantage is what they are counting on. Don’t forget if there ever was a most commonly hated nation in the world over the last 80 years Iran has to be at the top of the list.

  22. .Tom

    Thanks for including Alon Mizrahi, Nat. I only listened to the free part but he makes a couple of important points that I’d like to reinforce.

    1. “We (the USA) are Israel and Israel is us.” is a slogan I’ve been using for a while. Mizrahi adds to the foundation: Both the USA and Israel are best characterized by their overwhelming need to domineer.

    That’s the simple way to understand so much. Why did Ukraine have to fight Russia to its own ruin? Why 7 countries in 5 years? Why the Gaza rampage? It’s not about the oil, the MIC, the kompromat, etc. It’s simply the overwhelming need to domineer.

    2. Mizrahi talked about an inability for Westerners to think from observations to moral conclusions, e.g. from observing that Israel is exterminating Palestinians and that’s bad to Israel must be stopped and I/we must stop them.

    [It reminded me in passing of Adam Curtis – Oh Dearism, which is on YT but age restricted so I won’t link it.]

    Mizrahi describes it as an intellectual impediment but I think its actually a direct consequence of Important Point 1. We all know what will happen to us when we overtly and politically resist the overwhelming need to domineer. Only the very, very brave will accept the consequences given the likely impact of our resistance.

    1. .Tom

      Michael Hudson is in very strong form and a fighting mood with Glenn Diesen today, echoing what Alon Mizrahi said:

      … the US … I guess it doesn’t want the international economic system to completely melt down but it doesn’t want to give up its dominance either so where do you see this going is It would rather crash the whole economy, the world economy and itself than give up its dominance. It’s willing to crash everything.

      Yup.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPvP9ojKmpY

      1. JonnyJames

        Thanks for the references .Tom. I recall watching Adam Curtis’ The Power of Nightmares when it was new over 20 years ago. I think it aired on BBC TV as a four-part series if I recall (When I lived in UK) Curtis has produced some great documentaries and as you point out, YT requires signing in to verify age as the videos apparently contain material that may be “inappropriate” for some

        The mighty Michael Hudson still sharp as a razor and kickin ass at age 87.

        The US is acting like a spoiled child throwing a tantrum. But these children have nuclear weapons.

      2. bwilli123

        Or they may have decided that after 25 years they’ve finally run the asset inflation horse in to the ground & are readying themselves for a dismount. In the meantime circle the vassal wagons. After the old nag’s last breath they will be about ready for a bailout, then to pick up the distressed assets and re-start the West from a lower cost basis against a slowed down China.

  24. Frank

    Just saw this on Tasnim news:
    TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Intelligence Organization has dismantled several teams linked to anti-revolutionary groups in western provinces of Iran, saying the were preparing the ground for enemy military action with backing from the US and Israel.
    The IRGC Intelligence Organization announced that, through a series of operations in the provinces of Kurdistan and Kermanshah, multiple teams affiliated with anti-revolutionary groups were identified and neutralized.

    It said the groups, supported by the United States and the Zionist regime, were seeking to pave the way for enemy military attacks from Iran’s western borders. …
    https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/04/25/3574485/irgc-busts-saboteur-cells-in-western-iran

  26. hereweare

    I just cancelled the trip of my representatives going is Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their “leadership.” Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116466283877725023

    2. The Rev Kev

      For a change he forgot to mention that their navy is destroyed, their air force is destroyed, their missiles have been wiped out, their leadership has been killed, etc., etc., etc.

  27. Wukchumni

    In the interview with Tucker Carlson, Jeffrey Sachs brings up a great point in that during the 1973-74 gas crisis, El Nino played a big role, as it will with our upcoming gas crisis.

  30. Tom Stone

    Morale among US Forces must be in the shitter (If it still flushes).
    Crappy, inadequate food, no Mail(!!!), and a War Cry of “Israel Uber Alles” along with the cheerleading of Pete Hegseth…”Jesus Is Coming!”.
    No Mail.
    I sit in awed silence, no Mail.
    More unneeded evidence that Human Stupidity is infinite.

    I suspect that “Remember Minab” might be a better motivator..

    1. The Rev Kev

      Yeah, no mail. Not because they can’t deliver it but because they literally can’t can’t be bothered. That is unforgivable that.

  31. hereweare

    I don’t recall seeing this on Naked Capitalism. My apologies for this post if I missed it before!
    Crypto scam lures ships into Strait of Hormuz, falsely promising safe passage – ArsTechnica
    Crypto scammers are targeting the thousands of ships stranded near the Strait of Hormuz—and at least one ship that faced Iranian gunfire may have been tricked into believing it had paid Iran for safe passage.

    The first warning of such a crypto scam came from the Greek maritime risk management company MARISKS on April 20, according to Reuters. The company alerted shipowners that scammers posing as Iranian authorities had sent messages to shipping companies asking for “transit fee” payments in bitcoin or tether.
    …

    MARISKS identified one ship as having potentially fallen victim to crypto scams after it attempted to pass through the strait on April 18, although Reuters was unable to confirm that information. The incident supposedly occurred during a brief window when Iran claimed it was allowing ships to undergo inspection to pass through, but the ship in question turned back after Iranian military forces fired upon it. There are about 2,000 ships and 20,000 mariners still stranded near the strait.

    That ship may not be alone in falling for a crypto scam while seeking safe passage. On April 22, the Liberia-flagged cargo ship Epaminondas, owned by the Greek company Technomar shipping and operated by the global shipping company MSC, was fired upon after it had reportedly received permission to pass through the strait, and authorities are checking whether the message purporting to grant safe passage “may have been fraudulent,” according to Ekathimerini.

    1. hk

      That’s gotta be new to a lot of people: when was the last time US troops were bombed by hostile planes? (I think there was a time when PAVN MiG 17s dropped some bombs on blockading US destroyers to show that they could, in 1971 or something…)

  33. johnnyme

    Trump administration pitching US companies to rebuild Gulf infrastructure hit by Iran

    The Trump administration has told several Gulf states that they should use American companies to rebuild their infrastructure damaged by Iran’s retaliatory strikes amid the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic, US and Arab officials familiar with the discussions told Middle East Eye.

    But an Arab official told MEE that the push appeared “a little tone-deaf”, as the Gulf is still wary of a return to fighting and on edge over the US’s commitments to regional security.

    The Trump administration’s push is not merely symbolic. Rystad Energy estimates the repair costs for energy-linked infrastructure in the Gulf alone could reach as high as $39bn, excluding the damage in Iran.

  34. Ann

    GOP Secretly Schemes to Erase Trump From Campaigns

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/gop-secretly-schemes-to-erase-trump-from-campaigns-for-2026-midterm-elections/

    Trump Stumbled Into a Global Economic War. Xi Jinping Was Ready

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-04-24/iran-war-trump-to-meet-xi-as-balance-of-power-shifts-to-beijing

    Trump Wants to Double Production of New Nuclear Weapon Cores | The new proposed budget slashes money for environmental cleanup and calls to double the production of cores for nuclear weapons

    https://www.404media.co/trump-2027-budget-nuclear-weapons/

    Trump fires the entire National Science Board

    https://www.theverge.com/science/918769/trump-fires-the-entire-national-science-board

    Trump Is Going After Birth Control. Here’s Why.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/04/25/birth-control-maha-abortion-trump-00889738

    Trump bought at least $51 million in bonds in March, disclosure shows

    https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-bought-least-51-million-bonds-march-disclosure-shows-2026-04-25/

    Iranian tankers bypass US blockade

    https://www.ft.com/content/21dff2c7-1e27-4f74-81d8-31dcdbe9188e

    India’s imports of Russian oil doubled, likely to remain high

    https://unn.ua/en/news/indias-imports-of-russian-oil-doubled-likely-to-remain-high-media

    1. Huey

      First they came for the condoms…

      Seriously though, what is this? Discourage vaccinations and impoverish the country while making it hard to access birth control. Fire the scientists too, and screw over plastic production, because why not. This way, when all the malnourished, unvaccinated kids, like preterm firstborns from teens who already couldn’t pay for college, show up in the ER, it’ll be a toss up between whether they die from a lack of IV equipment, or just from a lack of meds.

      Who am I kidding, more than likely, the self-driving taxi they’ll have to take will crash before they can get there. At least the fertilizer shortage won’t be an issue when they decide to make Soylent Green.

  35. Anthony Martin

    Iran requested next time that Trump should consider sending a credible and rational negotiator, like Obama. Hah! Hah!

  36. Ann

    U.S. Asked IDF to Curb Gaza Strikes; Source: Israel Agreed, but Failed to Comply

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-04-24/ty-article/.premium/source-israel-agreed-but-did-not-comply-with-u-s-request-to-curb-gaza-strikes/0000019d-c0b9-df03-a7bf-fefbeb4a0000

    Trump, Iran’s Newest Hostage

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/25/opinion/trump-iran-war-israel.html

    What Makes Bullies Like Trump Cave?

    https://newrepublic.com/article/208867/trump-midterm-elections-bullies-cave

    Trump probe finds no evidence of election-rigging claims

    https://www.staradvertiser.com/2026/04/24/breaking-news/trump-probe-finds-no-evidence-of-election-rigging-claims/

    Trump bashes Supreme Court’s ‘Republican’ justices, says they’ve ‘gone weak, stupid, and bad’

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5843013-trump-supreme-court-conservative-justices/

    Israel India operation to relocate lost tribe Bnei Menashe community

    https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/israel-india-operation-northeast-manipur-bnei-menashe-tribe-2900845-2026-04-24#amp_tf

    The Republican Who Outsmarted Trump

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/04/can-thomas-massie-survive-trump-barrage/686916/

    One of the World’s Most Critical Oil Routes Could Trigger a Global Demand Crash

    https://www.financership.com/hormuz-oil-shock-global-demand-crash/

    IDF launches probe into soldiers destroying solar panels in Lebanese village | The Jerusalem Post

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-894118

  38. ChrisRUEcon

    #ThoseWhoDoNotLearnFromHistory

    Those pics of aircraft just sitting at Ben Gurion and UAE shows how foolish USR43L war-mongers are. I guess they didn’t learn from Iranian missiles/drones taking out parked aircraft before. Part of me believes it’s a priced-in sacrifice to just keep the war and MIC-funding going.

    #FromTheSportsDesk

    Curious things are happening in Formula1, where an unexpected month long break between races is happening because of the Bahrain and Saudi races being cancelled. The Turkish Grand Prix has just been re-added to the schedule for next year through 2031. That is a very potent statement of intent. Seems to me that people at the FIA and Liberty Media have come to the conclusion that the situation in the GCC is likely to remain uneasy for some time. If either or both of those races need to get pulled, Turkïye’s Grand Prix makes it easier to absorb such a blow. Worse news is they’re not out of the woods yet. The elongated 24 race season is schedule to culminate with two races hosted in GCC states: Qatar and Abu Dhabi. I think by the time Iran is done, the GCC will have lost its lustre as some sort of chic, exotic destination and likely a lot of foreign business as well.

Comments are closed.