Dear patient readers,
This news broke just as Links went live. Yours truly has limits on how much I can do, so please forgive this being a quasi open thread. Below are some initial sightings; I hope readers will add more in comments as information comes in.
Stas Krapivnik said on a recent show that many in Russia were disappointed that Trump essentially forced Ukraine to pretend to agree to the ceasefire Putin announced for the Victory Day celebration and therefore not execute his much promised massive attack on the ceremonies in Red Square. Putin had promised a ferocious retaliatory attack on central Kiev and had warned civilians and all diplomatic personnel to leave. Per Stas, large swathes of the public wanted the Moscow strikes to occur so that Russia would deliver what many saw a a long-overdue crippling blow, hopefully fatal, to the Kiev regime.
These strikes presumably used weapons planned for deployment for the Victory Day attacks, with only some marginal changes in targeting.
Ex hitting oil storage in Moscow (recall refineries are very robust, so drone hits to them may produce photogenic fires but are usually not terribly consequential), the damage so far does not appear severe, but reports are still coming in:
Ukraine carried out the biggest drone attack on Moscow in years, hitting a refinery, a fuel depot and industrial facilities. Drone debris was burning on the tarmac of the Sheremetyevo airport. Authorities say 3 people were killed, more than a dozen injured. Ukraine struck after… pic.twitter.com/r9StAhCw6T
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) May 17, 2026
Photos shared by Moscow regional Governor Andrei Vorobyov show the aftermath of overnight drone attacks in the Moscow region. Authorities say at least four people were killed and 12 injured, with strikes reported near a Moscow oil refinery entrance.#Russia #Ukraine #Moscow… pic.twitter.com/1NDFCE22Bs
— APT News (@APT__News) May 17, 2026
From DD Geopolitics:
And from the comments:
Naw just be sneaky little shits like intel agencies always are and go for good old “plausible deniability” LOL. The old Chuck Berry song “It wasn’t me” comes to mind.
Just like the munitions factory in Israel or the refineries in the USA … It was just an accident :)
Or to quote Bart Simpson “It wasn’t me. Nobody saw it. Can’t prove a thing”.
Not so much a Ukrainian attack as a western attack. Those drones may have been launched from the Ukraine but the drones themselves were probably mostly built in the west. And it would be the US helping with intel and navigational aids. At some point Russia is going to have to say enough and start launching attacks against decision-making centers in the Ukraine, including their parliament. And then they will announce how they will now target Zelensky himself personally as he – nominally – launched these attacks. That would terrify Zelensky as up to now the Russians have promised not to go after him and before they did, he was hiding in a bunker. If they do not do something like this, then the west will only increase these types of attacks as they think that they have impunity.
As Merz and Macron have said, in their old fashioned way, salvation requires the destruction of russia,china and europe.
The only route to peace and slavery is to appease the most illegitimate and violent member of the UN, who just turns out to be the beard of the the US elite.
Yes, in my haste to get this post up and return to finishing the daily Iran war post, I neglected to include that even though technically Ukraine sent these drones on their merry way, it is a near certainty that the targeting depended on US intel, as in active support and involvement. That suggests that Zelensky and Trump negotiated that Ukraine’s consolation prize for not attacking Moscow during the Victory Day parade was that he could go ahead shortly thereafter.
But the flip side is the fact of the threat of a Victory Day attack = Ukraine could target on its own (does it have enough drones it can send with GPS + visual targeting? Did Zelensky’s operatives cleverly get the US targeting support largely done with an earlier go live time?). Alternatively, Scott Ritter has said a CIA unit long tasked to Russia (“Russia House”) is a rogue operation within the CIA and even bloody Gina Haspel, who was tasked to get it under control, failed.
A final question is whether the attack was also timed to try to mess up Putin’s meeting with Xi, which was just announced as for May 19-20, or to try to force the Kremlin to stay its hand briefly in its retaliation (Putin would want to be in Russia to oversee an attack if it were intended to obliterate Ukraine decision centers).
I wonder about this issue UKR vs. NATO territory as drone attacks are concerned.
(I tried to briefly address that below in my messy post.)
So far it seems to still matter to RU official response if drones go from UKR, or through UKR originating in NATO territory or – of course – coming directly from NATO like Finland where drones were sent across lakes/sea to hit St. Petersburg military district, I believe.
The recent ones have not been launched from Finland, and Finland is making a decent amount of noise about them officially, pointing out Ukraine as the culprit. Though people are mockingly calling them “safe drones” as one official said that being Ukrainian the drones are not dangerous…
Now, the one (single engine small aircraft turned to UAV) that was shot down near Murmansk last year, was quite likely launched from Finland, Sweden or Norway, as otherwise it flew way out of it’s range and trough multiple nation’s air defense zones without being discovered.
Then it was the one particular incursion from the Baltic states? Where drones were repelled by RU EW and hit the countries of origin?
Martyanov had that map up but I didn´t bookmark his video then.
Sorry if am mixing things up.
Iran rolled over all the focus then…
Ultimately all drones (over 95%, plus many parts for the rest) come from China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHCLhHhlp-E (was just listening to it when I stumbled on your comment). They’re selling for a few thousand while the West can’t produce for under $15,000.
There are the small FPV drones. What Ukraine uses to attack Moscow are the long range drones of Ukrainian, Swiss, German, UK and Turkiyet manufacture. The piston engines are usually from China, this is true.
Absolute majority have a relatively small payload (10-25 kg [modern Gran 2 has 90 kg]) to be able to reach Moscow. Some of the converted ultra-lights have had a 100 kg aerial bomb attached to them.
At the IMF, China is still voting in favor of loans to Ukraine.
China is always acting like Shilock in the Merchant of Venice.
I am letting this through to let you know this comment got you banned for being cleverly-packaged anti-Semitism.
As if the US didn’t behave just the same way in its more powerful days and still tries to? Superpowers are not nice.
Your dig applies much more to Chinese businessmen, who are famous for cut-throat practices.
I came across a very informative article on the subject of small drones this morning, one that reinforces your statement that no one can beat China’s price on drones and drone components:
Cheap Chinese drones are wrecking modern militaries. That could be a good thing.
US pols and war-planners intend for us to compete in this space… or so they say. It’s not that we shouldn’t make attempts, but as the article makes clear, we’re shooting ourselves in the foot at the starting-line, if not blowing our feet clean-off.
Thanks. This piece makes all the sense in the world.
The US military is arguably more screwed and incapable of getting itself unscrewed than the French knights at Agincourt,
I think that just says mission accomplished.
Russia will tear itself apart and start speaking european/united states.
Everything will be normalised,capitalised and oligarchilised.
DJT jr will oversee the new world order and deface mount rushmore in gold leaf.
The richest man in the world will deliver abundance for all.
I only have confidence in the third point.
Wouldn’t want to be in Kiev over the next few days and nights …
Sorry if this may appear jumpy – a few items packed into one post:
Daniel Davis with Dmitri Poljanski, RU envoy to the OSCE
YESTERDAY
20 min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYOxyv46-6k
He warns that RUs consider some steps more seriously than they did before. Steps which would “hurt” the Europeans a lot. The scale of this change remains unclear to me however.
He reminds that there are different views in Russia but is highlighting rather those which he calls extreme or radical, like Karaganov or Medvedev. It´s a diplomat´s way of warning.
In relation to this I do have this military inquiry:
Why are the current drone incursions from the EU described by the (limited) Russian public sources we/I have as a threat so much bigger than the 4 years of massive land war by NATO and UKR against RU during the SMO?
While millions of men and thousands of vehicles were killed and destroyed, RU never really considered attacking NATO the way they – apparently – do now.
Instead the story usually was about SMO disarming NATO. A complete success story.
So these drones are apparently more dangerous than NATO´s forces.
At least according to e.g. Ritter, Martyanov, Krapivnik or Poljanski.
Although I would regard Poljanski as the only genuine source him being the only official member of a RU government institution.
I would want to hear what senior members of the Armed Forces and internal analysts have to say. People however who will not spak out in public, naturally.
re: the RU warnings against the EU – is this new attack from UKR also possibly a return to the old pattern to cover up EU pulling the strings as a reaction to RU?
p.s. For those who missed it, Scott Ritter criticizing Karaganov´s nuke scenario and suggesting instead attacks on EU with Oreshnik (ie conventional). I think both are erroneous conclusions and would benefit the US who would manage to pit EU against Russia once more and abuse a RU attack to complete the detruction of intern. law with new insane operations.
Scott Ritter on Karaganov
10 min.
May 14th
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8Kih4d1y40
p.p.s. I assume there is a difference between drone attacks from UKR territory and EU territory. Former has been practiced for some time without RUs warning the EU as they do now.
p.p.p.s. I hadn´t really followed the resignation of the Latvian government due to some drone story:
GUARDIAN
Latvian prime minister resigns amid row over drone incursions
Evika Siliņa stands down after coalition collapses following sacking of defence minister
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/14/evika-silina-latvian-prime-minister-resigns-drone-incursions
I have two thoughts right now… 1, it is only a matter of time before those in the US wake up to scenes of similar devastation in the Homeland. The more we support and normalize this BS the sooner it will be turned on US territory. I can imagine the Mexican cartels or other interests being encouraged to attack. I can also imagine the next Team Blue official who gets installed being forced to respond. Another example of “I campaign promise not to start a war or prolong a conflict” met with “whoops! Looks like we’re in another war that all of these rich people are excited about…”
2, is this a way to give Trump and others a way to back out of Iran? Let’s distract everyone with a “success” against the other Hitler so no one sees how screwed we are in the MENA theater?
If the cartels / others attack US refineries, there will be a massive force multiplier, especially once Mr. Market notices (has its nose shoved in it) – especially if they attack critical components (not storage tanks) with long lead times.
It would be a manifestation of karma.
It would be very dangerous but an Oreshnik in the Russian Far East is in range of much of the US North West.
I think the cartels are more closely aligned with the CIA than any other entity so I don’t see that happening except as a false flag
Exactly, I agree 100%
If any doubt that, they should start with reading The CIA as Orgnaized Crime by Douglas Valentine
Ukraine drones kill four in Russia, Moscow faces biggest attack in over a year
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/least-three-died-ukraine-drone-attack-moscow-region-governor-says-2026-05-17/
Large-scale Ukrainian drone attack kills three in Moscow region, says Russia
https://bbc.com/news/articles/c5ye480kxpmo
Zelenskyy Confirms Ukraine Was Behind Massive Moscow Drone Strike
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/zelenskyy-confirms-ukraine-was-behind-massive-moscow-drone-strike-18887
At least 3 killed, numerous residential buildings hit in mass drone attack on Moscow region
https://kyivindependent.com/over-70-drones-reportedly-downed-near-moscow-russian-officials-claim/
The Russian military had ample opportunity to shoot down the drones before they reached Moscow. This was clearly an attack launched by Zelenskyy—who is under investigation for corruption—in an attempt to “save face.” If Putin understands this, there should be no escalation.
I suspect (strongly) that you are incorrect on this point. Russians are getting pretty pissed off over this, and although Putin has an enormous amount of latitude and credibility to tell his populace “Trust me!”, his reservoirs of goodwill are not infinite.
The Europeans are going to really regret this, I think, and whether now or next time, I doubt the Russians will even bother with plausible deniability.
But I am not a fortune teller, so let’s see how this plays out…
I think it’s less about the damage done by these drones and more about the increasingly militaristic posturing in Germany. If the last act of WW2 is to be fought, let it be on German land not Russian.
I recall that the goal of the SMO was to reestablish Russian security and remove the NATO threat from its borders. With the fighting in Ukraine seemingly nearing an end point, Europe should be working with Russia to establish an architecture for a lasting peace. Instead, Germany is calling for building the largest army in Europe to take the fight to Russia. If they want to fight Russia says fine, we’re ready now. Lavrov used almost those exact words.
I seem to remember that Margaret Thatcher, in one of her less mystical moments, was fairly queasy about the re-unification of East Germany and West Germany aware that, sooner or later, a united Germany would flex it’s muscles and feel the temptation to re-arm and go to war once again.
Gorbachev, lacking any common sense whatsoever, and who cared more about personal acceptance by the West than about the welfare of the peoples of the USSR, offered East Germany to the West as a gift on a handshake rather than besmirch himself with the grubby time-consuming activities involved in negotiating sensible security arrangements with each member of NATO, and legitimising the resulting arrangements in series of formal treaties with appropriate penallties if any of the Western states breached the terms.
Sad, but true.
‘Justified response’ – Zelensky releases footage of Ukrainian strikes on Russian aircraft, other targets deep behind enemy lines
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-releases-footage-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russian-aircraft-other-targets-deep-behind-enemy-lines/
John Helmer 2 days ago on IMF aid to UKR.
He ends this long piece with a quote by Lavrov who mentions Anchorage:
“I just want to reiterate,” Lavrov added on May 15: “this never meant that we would publish the Anchorage decisions and everything would be settled overnight. The basic principles were agreed there. But there remain many issues that require more detailed consideration. Such consideration will become possible as soon as we confirm the Alaska agreements. I hope this happens sooner rather than later. As Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated, we will achieve the goals of the special military operation under any circumstances. Preferably through diplomatic means, but if not, we will continue to do so within the framework of the special military operation.”
https://johnhelmer.org/imf-aid-to-ukraine-russia-votes-against-india-abstains-china-votes-in-favour-and-other-secrets-lavrov-has-just-exposed/#more-72455
No mention of threats to EU etc.
Maybe simply because it´s not his job any more. EU is too insignificant by now. And he lets OSCE envoys do that job.
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia kill 4 and wound 12 others, while debris lands on a Moscow airport
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-drones-moscow-strike-attack-killed-3164d723ca8331e5780ec7942245a2e6
Historically, this is a civilian hope that is rarely if ever granted. Drones can’t deliver anything like the quantity of explosives needed to do any damage to a city or regime.
Note that the Shaheds – the most common ones – tap out at 50kg of explosive whereas the smallest bombs on planes start at 125kg going up to 10 tonnes. And planes can’t deliver enough to knock out cities either.
The history of knock-out blows by bombing goes back to Gen. Douhet of Italy in the 1930s. Luckily for mankind and sadly for him, there are almost zero cases where bombing has resulted in such a knock out blow. Or, I can’t think of any.
As far as Kiev is concerned, no chance. Even the Oreshniks are a point weapon delivering something 4kt in kinetic energy – they will destroy the building or bunker they hit, but there are far too many buildings and far too few Oreshniks.
Or, look at Gaza. Destroyed in the most bombing ever. 100kg per person but most of the people are still there.
Short story – bombing to knock out an enemy is a myth. The drone attacks are for public consumption only.
“Luckily for mankind and sadly for him, there are almost zero cases where bombing has resulted in such a knock out blow. Or, I can’t think of any.”
Maybe not for glide bombs, but I think Iran’s current missile/drone success will be deemed a sufficient knockout blow to its adversaries in the region.
There is no knockout blow to Iran’s adversaries; on the one hand, the damage that is widely reported is hyped and overstated, and on the other, it seems that Iran has simply not gone for the jugular.
What has been sufficiently hurt is not the infrastructure but the narrative.
I.e., Israel lived on a narrative that it was untouchable due to its air defence system. This has been punctured, twice now and the ramifications of that shock are still rolling. In the same sense, Gulf countries lived under the narrative that US protected them and they were safe. Those premises are now exposed, and the consequences will likely be a distancing from US (e.g., base closures), a gathering or alliance amongst like (Arab) countries and reproachment with Iran.
By itself, Bombing is not enough to cause a surrender of the enemy leadership or its people… BUT… bombing and destroying the critical infrastructure related to water or power, will cause massive problems, and perhaps mass death, for civillians and industry… this might cause a surrender, even as it permanently poisons relations with other countries, and gives license for other countries to do the same.
Not recommended…
I have to agree that these pin-pricks are nothing more than a propaganda exercise (although the loved ones of the three killed may disagree).
This morning RT is reporting that there were 586 “Ukrainian” drones destroyed last night in regions spanning much of the country and that these drone attacks have been launched deep into Russia on a daily basis since mid-March, doing little lasting damage.
This all demonstrates the futility of these American-instigated wars of choice. Attempts at ethnic cleansing in Libya, Syria, “Ukraine,” Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran haven’t increased anyone’s security except that of the private equity war profiteers who call the shots in Washington DC.
If Russia does wipe out Kiev, or, possibly, “Berlin,” (by which I actually mean drone production sites in EUland that have already been noted.) I expect that it’ll be quite quick in coming–the necessary preparations would have been done before the publuc threats were made. As Yves notes, the only constraint, likely, is the schedule for the meeting in Beijing, but even then, the attack does provide a highly defensible justification, especially since the warnings have already been issued publicly.
We have seen discussions and arguments for many months with Stas Krapivnik., S. Ritter, Col. MacGregor, Helmer, Doctorow, and others speculating on why Russia has been so timid in retaliation to repeated attacks. As has already been noted many times, the UK/US and EU vassals are behind these attacks.
I’m not sure what to think, especially after the Russian pres. praised Iran for it’s courage and skill in facing down the US/Israel simultaneously. The US has depleted it’s magazines, so why is Russia still so restrained? If Iran can stare down the empire alone, why the restraint?
One would think that this is the time for massive retaliation.
Here are a few scattered thoughts:
1. Because once Russia truly escalates, there is no easy way to set the dominoes back up–if you are going to do this, you need to be absolutely certain that you understand the *short term and long term* consequences and are willing to accept them. Moreover, remember that France and the UK are nuclear states (UK just barely). The US used to understand this (see the period between Vietnam and Desert Storm). The bizarre, cavalier attitude it now holds about just bombing anywhere for fun and profit is an exception, not the rule, to how sane countries evaluate warfare (similarly, look at China vis-a-vis Taiwan)
2. Because Putin knows that he will be able to get most/all of what he wants if he just patiently waits anyway
3. Because Putin knows that none of these heads of state are going to be around much longer.
4. Because once you start a war, you actually don’t really know where things are going to end up. If you can win in a largely predictable way, you are better off doing things that way
5. Because Russia’s current strategy is enormously effective–it has essentially drained all western arms, and did it while attaining a 30:1 casualty rate in its favor. Much has been made of Iran’s (absolutely brilliant) war strategy, but one of the reasons Iran is emerging relatively unscathed and in such a strong position is that the West has already blown its wad in Russia.
Given all this, if you were Putin, why not just try to drag this out for another 12 months and further cement your advantages?
Having said all that, I think Russia will have to retaliate hard sooner rather than later–it’s citizens will more or less demand it, I think. And I think that Western historians will really ask themselves in hindsight what the hell the Europeans were thinking when they decided to push Russia to this point.
JMO
Thanks for the reply, I think that pretty much sums it up. We have seen this before, where analysts have speculated that a truly devastating retaliation would be forthcoming from Russia, but that never materialized. The “Oreshnik Moment” has not yet arrived, but we’ll have to stay tuned til the next episode to find out.
I’d say it doesn’t have to be an “Oreshnik Moment”. Well, at least not directly. I find it more believable for example to assume a rather strongly worded note diplomatique to the Baltic states making it clear that if they can’t defend their airspace from the Ukrainian drones, the Russian Army will do it for them.
That would likely stir NATO enough to shake it apart, while Russia still has the actual escalation dominance in case NATO finally comes out in the open and takes steps to protect the Baltic Drone Alley for Ukraine.
The best worse case scenario for Russia is that all capable NATO troops would locate to the Baltics – a tiny geographical area totally within the range of the conventional Russian firepower. And of course, roughly 25% of the population speaking Russian and being mistreated…
If at that point a volley of Oreshniks takes out the airfields, marshalling yards and ports of the Baltics (just few of each, anyway) in 5 minutes, NATO may finally be willing to negotiate.
The only pressure on Putin is domestic patience running low which translates into declining popularity for the president. The expectation is growing that he do something and not repeatedly turn the other cheek.
In Russian state-adjacent media, the prevailing explanation is: when Iran responds by hitting US assets in Arab countries, they risk a regional war; if Russia were to respond by hitting drone factories in NATO countries, they would risk a world war (the term can also mean “nuclear war” in some context).
To be sure, every successive wave of “Ukrainian” drones – manufactured in Europe, guided by the Americans – strengthens the hawks in the government. As does Iran’s successful stand vs. the US. But, one, the hawks are not the only faction in and around government – e.g. there still, per Lavrov, exists a “pro-western” group that wants to just kiss and make up and go back to pre-2014. [I am guessing it’s the Finance ministry and the central bank, but who knows.] Two, simply flattening Ukrainian cities or whatnot changes nothing – you can launch these drones from an open field, and again, they are manufactured and targeted by entities outside Ukraine. Meanwhile, flattening a drone factory in Estonia, while potentially gratifying, completely shuts down further negotiations with the Americans (which major BRICS states would not like), and puts the world into Article 5 territory, possibly (not probably, but still possibly) on the path to nuclear war. I do not see Putin risking an internal rift or an international crisis like these, not when he seems to believe (based on his public statements) that the matter will eventually be settled on the battlefield anyway.
Now. I know what I personally would do, and that is completely obliterate Ukraine’s rail-sea-air logistics. More than what the Russians have been doing to date, much more. Those hundreds of small airplane sized drones per day still have to be shipped to Ukraine somehow, and trucks are the least efficient mode of bulk transport. But Putin is clearly not willing to go even that far, at least not yet, I am guessing internal or BRICS-related reasons. [E.g. erasing all Ukrainian ports from existence means no grain shipments to…wherever.]
Maybe your last suggestion is exactly what RU will do next.
I have been argueing along the same line that RU doesn´t seriously consider attacking EU.
Even though I have suggested people to listen to the RU OSCE envoy who has warned of just that.
In regard of actual military expertise and command authority a Karaganov (since almost only his name pops up which is a hint of fallacy by Western media already as it focuses on only one person) is no serious reference.
His macro style of looking at things is not how such grave decisions are made. Politicians and think tankers argue this way in public. Not generals who give the actual order for such operations.
Besides everything else which needs to be kept in mind, these warnings by Karaganov, Medvedev, Martyanov, Ritter or Doctorow are welcome food for the Western scaremongering machine. Whether or not that same machine claims “weakness” by RU.
Which is frankly idiotic. And I don´t believe for a second that the actual commanders and inside advisors who ultimately are in charge share that notion.
NATO commanders might have been incompetent but only as far as it didn´t involve NATO itself materially. They could simply afford sacrificing 80k in Kursk. Or 2M AFU.
Well … well …
From day one, I’ve done two things:
• I’ve given credit to the Russian Government and Vladimir Putin for showing tremendous restraint.
• I’ve also said a this whole thing could be ended with a week of “shock and awe” sorties.
I think the time for the latter has now come. What we are seeing with the West is that their governments, from Brussels to London to Washington DC, are making it clear that there is no good faith negotiation; there is no coming to the table as equal, even when the opponent is a nuclear armed or a member of the G7. There is no rules based order. There is only the one rule that all knees must bend to Western violence and hegemony.
It’s about time. Send in the Orthodox priests to bless the pilots. C Dnem Pobedi!
Upon reading this, I contacted my family in Moscow (as I’m in Tuscany these days) to see what was going on. It took 3-4 hours to get all the responses (our family chat is on Telegram, which like WhatsApp is being throttled by RU authorities, and of course they’re all too busy to answer silly paranoid Papa Max promptly), but here we go:
Offspring no.1: I didn’t see anything. People were enjoying themselves outside, typical day. GPS didn’t work at all, though.
Offspring no.2: I was at a friend’s birthday yesterday evening southeast of Moscow. We heard a drone explode a few km away, but that’s about it.
Offspring no.3: Nothing out of the ordinary.
She who must be obeyed: Everything is normal, rain and storms. (She complained that she was indoors all day cleaning the house, especially the cat fur off the carpets, no time to watch the news).
Not to downplay things too much: my Yandex news feed admits that over 1000 UKR drones have been shot into RU over the past 24 hours, which IIRC is the first time that UKR has cracked four decimals on the daily drone front. So yes, it’s unprecedented.
Still…..these drones pack a light payload (not exactly B25s or B52s), and Moscow plus surrounding region are slightly bigger than the Netherlands. And most of them get shot down en route. So despite all the Sturm und Drang, we’re looking at pinprick nuisance attacks (obviously not perceived as such to the poor souls who have suffered).
Things are not looking good for Mr.Z. The corruption scandal is metastasizing with extensive media coverage to boot. USA is tied down in West Asia. EU is starting to wake up to the possibility of serious unrest as a result of the new reality of Hormuz; yes it would like to keep Project UKR afloat, however the spirit is willing but the flesh is weak. Time is running out on Mr.Z, so he felt a need to launch the drones that had been pre-planned for 9 May. I expect that (as usual) VVP’s response will be measured, as he believes that time is on the Kremlin’s side. No sense in shedding blood and treasure for something that can be acquired free and clear later on at the negotiation table.
For those interested in the gory details of UKR/RU corruption (yes, they are hopelessly interlinked), I recommend a daily visit to the Events in Ukraine blog over at Substack. Lots going on. Wild stuff.
Thanks Max. Good stuff. Context, like what you shared, is important. Like most, I’m gripping my chair wanting RU to respond in spades to these non-ending drone sorties. I think the west continues to set the narrative and even though I never read the content, I’m still exposed to the headlines in one form or another. There is also what I perceive to be a weakness of opposing news content–the fact that alt-sources more often than not seemingly only respond to the hysteria as a starting point and do little to show that, indeed, these attacks are miniscule especially when waged egainst the largest country on earth; and that life for everyday Russians for the most part continues on normally and is probably less stressful than my existance in the ‘States.
I was at dacha, but my wife says she heard explosions at night, which I guess was antiaircraft fire going off. We live not far from Khimki,
I guess that it was antiaircraft fire going off, since we heard it all the time and it kept me up at night when we were in Feodosiya, Crmea, and that has the whoosh-whoosh of rockets that sound like explosions.
“The Russian Ministry of Defence said local air defences intercepted 556 Ukrainian drones across the country from Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with a further 30 shot down later on Sunday.”
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/05/17/largest-ukrainian-drone-attack-since-invasion-kills-3-in-moscow-area-russia-says#:~:text=The%20Russian%20Ministry%20of%20Defence%20
“”(The drones flying to the Moscow region) are flying from Ukraine. (The Ukrainian Armed Forces) are constantly upgrading them. There’s a metal component that’s being replaced with a cheaper composite material, half the weight of its metal counterpart. A more powerful engine has been introduced. They’re constantly upgrading. They’re using a jerky flight system, meaning they fly with the engine running, glide, then fly again with the engine running, then glide again. They’re constantly coming up with new things to increase their range.”
the expert said in a conversation with a News.ru correspondent.
Knutov noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may be switching to more modern explosives. While having comparable power, these materials are lighter, allowing for a smaller payload and potentially improving the performance of drones.”
https://voennoedelo.com/posts/id85594-otkuda-byli-zapuscheny-atakovavshie-moskvu-drony-mnenie-eksperta#:~:text=%22(The%20drones%20flying,performance%20of%20drones.
“According to Ostorozhno Novosti, residents of Khimki, Mytishchi, and Lobnya reported problems. They said residents received no text messages the night of the drone attack, and sirens in the cities were also not working.
Some residents reported that they were unable to reach emergency services on 112 during the attack. The line was busy.”
https://sotavision.world/zhiteli-podmoskovya-pozhalovalis-chto-vo-vremya-ataki-bespilotnikov-ne-rabotali-sirena-i-sms-opoveshheniya/#:~:text=According%20to%20Ostorozhno,line%20was%20busy.
Guys i think war is coming to Europe. Russia have shown too much restraint that allow Europe to think war against them will be same as in Ukraine. I cant really blame Europe to think that. If Putin dint lift Russia from 90s economy crash I would have call him a traitor, at least the central bank is. The way Russia grow the army and how slowly they move Siberia 2 pipeline deal, even selling to this day sell oil to Europe that is not a country who is getting ready to fight back against Europe, more like ready to sellout , the sad reality is Europe is going to force Putin hand
Cuba buys more than 300 drones from Russia and Iran
https://www.dw.com/en/cuba-buys-more-than-300-drones-from-russia-and-iran-report/a-77191599
The Conversation says that those attacks are a “morale buster” for Ukraine while European media hails these attacks as show of Russian vulnerabilities and an embarrassment. Are these the strategic aims of such attacks? If so, IMO this is telling on how little can Ukraine do with European military aid and it is almost certainly a failure except for those who want to believe that Russia is always on the brink of regime change.
These attacks, If I am correct, involve a couple of hundred drones at a time which may translate into more that a thousand in 48 hrs which shows Ukrainian limitations compared with Russian when the latter can combine and coordinate in short time more that one thousand drones plus dozens of missiles. The Russians are on this one order of magnitude above Ukraine’s capacity and this, IMO, is show of Western impotence. From few videos I have seen, among those drones that impact something, targets aren’t of any tactical importance and damage is small. Much smaller that damage caused by Russian aerial attacks.
We are all over again in PR stunts territory with no tactical, nor strategical aims really to be accomplished but these is going to result in additional hardening of war aims in both sides. Problem here is that Russia has much more room for that than Ukraine.
Our media always says Moscow for Moscow region, and let’s it’s audience assume it’s the city proper, though next to nothing reaches the city.