[Today’s Iran war post is launching before final because I felt a bit poorly earlier but am fine now. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or reload this page then for a final version]
The Iran war front seems quiet, particularly as the Trump-Xi summit continues to dominate the news. We won’t dignify the Trump claim that Xi offered essentially a blank check in support of the US effort to open the Strait of Hormuz:
BREAKING: China has explicitly informed the US that it recognizes Iran's "exercise of sovereignty" over the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting the White House readout of the Trump-Xi summit that claimed Xi opposed Iranian "militarization" of the Strait and any "toll" for its use,…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 15, 2026
I have not seem other reports like this but it makes complete sense. Top Chinese officials met with Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi right before the Trump-Xi summit. China had already been providing military and intel support, albeit arguably defensive. Why should China abandon Iran, which is doing a marvelous job of weakening the US?
But tectonic plates are moving, particularly on the market and economic front. Will they produce a big earthquake and tsunamis, as we have feared, or minor tremblors that relieve pressure and make new types of motion possible? Or from a global power perspective, be seen as doing a favor for the US, which has continued to implement belligerent measures against China?
Trump is actively making his bad situation worse. The best of his lousy options is to take the loss and exit. But Trump has a pattern, when faced with choices he does not like, of punching in many directions in the hope that that will cow opponents and open up new space and new opportunities. But even when that process might work (when it has not and won’t with Iran), it takes time. Delay here operates very much in Iran’s favor and very much to Trump’s disadvantage. Economic pressure from restricted use of the Strait of Hormuz will hurt the global economy harder and fastest than any trade restrictions or new sanctions on Iran. And Iranians have and will continue to accept far higher levels of pain than the pampered US can.
Supporting that reading Chas Freeman, once the US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, remarks in a fresh talk with Pascal Lottaz that he sees sign of Gulf States ex the UAE working towards a modus vivendi with Iran:
Recall we had said early on that one way for this war to end sooner rather than later was for at least some Gulf States to come to terms with Iran in order to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That would require adopting a neutral stance, as in ending US support.
Note that Freeman has argued that the Gulf States and Iran will need to reach some sort of arrangement. It is no news that these countries have already suffered from Iran’s retaliatory attacks. The Conversation takes a stab at an assessment in How severe has the economic impact of the Iran war been for the Gulf states?. Key parts:
Since the war began in February, the World Bank has downgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for the region from 4.4% to just 1.3%. Some thinktanks, including Oxford Economics, even predict that some GCC economies will enter recession in the second half of the year.
However, the effects of the war have differed across the region….
Countries like Qatar and Kuwait have seen their oil and gas exports seriously disrupted by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have access to bypass infrastructure, have been partly able to circumvent this limitation….
Disruption to energy exports is one part of the story. The war has also caused substantial physical damage to energy infrastructure across the region. …
It will take months – and in some cases years – to repair the damage (which stands at an estimated US$58 billion) once the war ends…
The GCC states have adopted strategies to diversify their economies away from a dependency on hydrocarbons. Tourism and aviation are two central pillars of this…
But these industries, too, have been damaged by the war. Financial analysis firm, Moody’s, suggested recently that hotel occupancy in Dubai is set to plummet to 10% in the second quarter of 2026 from 80% before the war….
The Iran war has also placed Gulf airlines such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways under increasing financial pressure. More than 30,000 flights to the Middle East were cancelled in the first month of the war and jet fuel prices – the biggest variable cost to airlines – are up 90% on the annual average.
The logistics sector is another area of Gulf diversification. It has grown rapidly since the early 2000s thanks to the region’s strategic position between east-west trade routes. The UAE’s Jebel Ali Port, for instance, is now one of the world’s largest container ports and the base of Dubai’s multinational logistics firm, DP World.
However, Jebel Ali has seen a 40% drop in vessels due to the war, with container carriers rerouting to alternatives such as Salalah in Oman and Colombo in Sri Lanka. And while DP World has opened emergency land corridors to ports outside the Gulf to keep cargo moving, these routes are costly and have limited capacity.
The UAE and Qatar also both serve as major air freight hubs, acting as bridges for cargo travelling between Asia and Europe. But this has been affected by the war too. Freight rates have increased following attacks on both Dubai and Doha that led to grounded flights and air space closures.
On the kinetic front, temperatures in the region are rising to seasonally high heat and humidity levels, which will make any ground operation impossibly difficult.
Now perhaps on Sunday he will launch the very much anticipated massive US/Israeli air strike campaign, likely in combination with a showy Special Forces operation and NO1’s sources see this as still in the works:
Iran diplomacy dead — second US military operation imminent. Trump trashed Iran’s proposal “after reading the first sentence”. Operation Epic Fury declared concluded, next phase targeting Hormuz reopening. Multiple reports of US military buildup with B-2s, F-35s moving into position. Iran says fingers on buttons, Houthis on standby.
But the fact that the Saudis, Kuwaits and Qataris kiboshed Trump’s Project Freedumb by denying use of their airspace makes it logical to assume they would would throw an even bigger spanner as far as a US renewed bombing campaign on Iran is concerned. Can the US mount these attacks on the desired scale if most Gulf states refused to let their airspace and what is left of their airbases be used? These countries have every reason to try to prevent this type of escalation, since Iran has vowed to destroy their energy production in the event of an attack.
On top of that, US military leaders (and certainly the next tier) are very cognizant of the high risks and limited upside of a renewed campaign against Iran. If key Gulf States are are refusing to let the US exploit them to advance a futile show of force that could depopulate their countries via the destruction of desalination plants, that throws a monkey wrench in US plans. One can see escalation-opposed officers emulating Penelope in the Odyssey, of winding ways to make the revisions and approvals take a lot of time, thus delaying any action and letting the economic and political forces undermining Trump grow in power.
A big source of economic pressure, not just in the US but also the wider world, is that interest rates are rising due to investors coming to grips with how serious and lasting inflation increases are likely to be. The stock market often takes a different view than bond buyers, but the paradigmatic relationship is that when bond prices fall, stocks should too, because higher interest rates crimp commercial activity and also hurt the valuations of risky assets like stocks because future cash flows should be discounted at a higher price (as in profits later are worth less than before the interest rate rise).
This Bloomberg segment has a less than cheery take on the outlook for stocks and bonds:
Countries that had hoped to gain from China saying it would relax a refined-products exports ban have not seen more product come on the market. Note the article is pretty fuzzy as to where official China stands on this matter. From the Financial Times in China’s fuel exports fail to rebound after Beijing signals easing of ban:
Data suggests shipments of refined fuels are not picking up in blow to Asian economies starved of supplies by Iran war
Chinese exports of jet fuel, gasoline and diesel are languishing far below their levels before the Iran war despite Beijing signalling it would relax a ban, dashing the hopes of other Asian countries desperate for supplies to combat shortages as a result of the conflict…
But China exported just 417,000 barrels per day of refined products in the first two weeks of the month, much lower than its usual exports before the war, according to data compiled by oil research group Kpler. In January and February China exported about 750,000 barrels per day of refined fuel….
Rising inventories might spur China to facilitate exports and some at state-owned oil companies said they were already selling more to international buyers, while others said they have not yet received permits to export oil products, which are controlled by the government.
While the oil companies would like to sell refined products to whichever buyers could pay the most, the government was focused on preserving the country’s energy security, according to Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
On the topic of China, Jeff Snider’s latest talk is very informative, if you look past his wildly-off base attempt to use the Xi-Trump summit as a hook. A general issue with Snider is that he does an impressive job of putting together data, but some of his interpretations are off base.
Here, his lower-level readings, on the persistence of weakness of internal demand in China and that its traditional remedies are in “pushing on a string” terrain. That means China’s best alternative is foreign demand, as in exports….which do not look like a good outlet given the increasingly dire state of the global economy, and in particular its biggest export markets, Southeast Asia and Europe:
On the shortages front, from Autoblog in Toyota is About to Run Out of Motor Oil:
It’s no secret that the war in Iran has put a strain on the world’s oil supply. Fuel prices have shot up, but now it appears a motor oil shortage is on the way, at least according to a post on X about a Toyota bulletin issued to North American service managers.
And:
Nissan joins Toyota in warning of looming motor oil shortage
Nissan confirmed the authenticity of a draft bulletin warning U.S. dealers about a 45% year-over-year cut in motor oil supply, https://t.co/a1xo8PHNLA
— 🔻Rio Slade 🔻 (@RioSlade) May 15, 2026
More evidence of retailer motor oil supplies being cleaned out in anticipation of shortages:
Went to Walmart to investigate the oil shortage, here's what I found:
1. Walmart clearly hasn't gotten the message to end their discounts as most of their oil is on rollback/clearance, including Shell Rotella
2. The employees stated that they're experiencing delays on… https://t.co/6uep11xuAe pic.twitter.com/2s0PPEYebe
— George Roush (@GeorgeRoush) May 13, 2026
We warned that El Nino would amplify food shortages. This presentation describes how it will do serious harm separate and apart from fuel and fertilizer scarcity:
On the latest @theallinpod, @friedberg talks about a potential food shortage that could come as a result of "El Nino"
It could lead to commodity prices to spiking as crops fail, creating a global calorie deficit and economic impacts. pic.twitter.com/S7IRYZRSzf
— Finn (@finnjclancy) May 16, 2026
The futures market predicts potato prices will spike. From RT (hat tip Kevin W):
Potatoes have emerged as the latest casualty as futures prices have surged in recent weeks amid mounting warnings over food security and supply chain strain.
Potato-linked financial contracts have spiked more than 700% over the past month and are up over 34% year-on-year as of mid-May, according to Trading Economics data.
We have noted that Iran has taken an awfully long time to regularize what it is doing with Strait of Hormuz vessel processing. It has yet to fully settle on how to do that. From Aljazeera:
Exclusive: Iran plans to charge fees for Strait of Hormuz passage under new system, lawmaker says
Iran has prepared a mechanism to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz along a designated route and will announce the plan shortly, a senior Iranian lawmaker said.Ebrahim Azizi, who heads parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, said only commercial ships and countries that cooperate with Tehran would be eligible to use the arrangement. He added that Iran would collect fees for specialized services provided under the mechanism.
Axios reports on an issue we highlighted early in the war: that it would increase financial stress on farmers, which would lead to some going out of business, which in turn would further reduce food supplies. From Farmers growing desperate amid rising energy and fertilizer prices:
Farmers across the Midwest are entering planting season under mounting financial pressure, as the Iran conflict drives up diesel and fertilizer prices — deepening an agricultural downturn that some say is the worst since the crisis of the 1980s.
Why it matters: Rising fuel and fertilizer costs threaten to push more family farms out of business, drive up food prices and further strain rural economies already battered by trade disruptions, inflation and extreme weather.
Back to snippets from the Middle East:
The effort to depict a pause in tanker-loading out of some Kargh Island slots as a big deal looked overdone and has proven to be:
Earlier this morning, Windward posted satellite imagery showing a vessel loading oil at Kharg Island. This is significant because it shows Iran still retains loading ability, and this will greatly extend the timeline Iran has until they run out of remaining storage options.… https://t.co/iAag24nfl2
— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) May 14, 2026
The fake Lebanon-Israel ceasefire will continue:
⚡️ 🌟Journalist Khalil Nasrallah:
Extension of the ceasefire – continuation of the fire – in Lebanon for 45 days.
A fourth round has been set, and a "security" track launched with Lebanese-Israeli military presence at the Pentagon.
What the US State Department announced confirms…— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) May 15, 2026
Done for now. See you tomorrow!
People talking about how Iran will fold under sanctions ignore the fact that Americans couldn’t even wear masks to the supermarket without whinging like babies. The economic pain will be felt much worse on American shores
Or maybe they’re projecting an accurate perception of US internal fragility onto Iran.
Re: the unwillingness to undertake public-spirited health-protection measures, I really really hope that the hantavirus outbreak is contained. I don’t see USians tolerating multi-week incubation quarantines. I suppose that DJT would provide entertaining commentary.
Stephen Petty on why masks can’t work:
https://rumble.com/v1fcord-industrial-hygienist-and-ppe-expert-stephen-petty-the-truth-about-cloth-mas.html
It is NOT “public spirited”. It is falling for a con. Masks can not and will not work.
Are you new here.
Ahh come on. Really?!? anecdata: I have worn a N95 mask since Feb 2020. Still do. Inside, any place with people. Haven’t been sick, sick as in Flu, Hana, Common cold or Covid in six and half years.
I agree with you. It’s a virtue signal, not some magic shield. I see people still wearing them in the red state I live in. I think they wear them to signal that they’re liberal.
Tell that to the surgeon and staff operating on you, your family and your friends. Insist they ditch the masks. Or inform the workers working around rodent infested areas in Patagonia and US Southwest
That is why I suggest if you or a loved one needs surgery, you demand the surgeon NOT wear masks because, you know, you read something on the internet. Since I do not have reason to wish you ill, I would ask the surgeon not to listen to you once you (or your loved one) are unconscious.
“Masks” is a very general and ambiguous term TRM, e.g. so non specific that anyone can use it rhetorically to support any logical fallacy reverse engendered to arrive at the desired result/outcome. Yes some masks are not suited to specific environmental concerns, per se a wet bandana over nose and face during a fire/sand storm is better than nothing but, you still breath in toxins.
Question is what environment and what toxin/contaminate is one working in/with vs what kind of mask one needs to wear. Not only that but, one needs to be educated in wearing it properly, maintenance, need to replace it or its filters. Hence to say – Masks don’t work – is absurd because so many people wear them in so many jobs. I’ve been using masks since the military for NBC training, decades of working with protective coatings and preparation of substrates. I have different masks for different jobs due to environment and particulate/VOC’s.
Albeit I agree that inappropriate and ill fitting masks both don’t do the job and worst [like during Covid height] give people a false sense of security which then leads to high risk behavior for said individuals and society at large.
It seems you really don’t have any personal knowage or experience on the topic and relying on one other persons opinion, you don’t have any means to evaluate for yourself.
How right they were to whinge. Surgical masks achieve nothing, a fact that was well established long before Covid came along. How anyone can believe that the identity of a virus borne in aerosol drops could change the fluid dynamics of the dispersion of the drops is hard to credit – witchdoctory of a high order.
These modern quasi-religions are even more bonkers than the Abrahamic religions.
Id don’t think the modifier “surgical” was mentioned.
In replacing religion with science, they have destroyed the very essence of science, i.e., questioning everything.
Yes, monster straw man and flat out wrong.
Covid is nearly entirely transmitted via aerosols. Surgical masks would be very beneficial it was spread via droplets.
I sport this mask sometimes:
That is my mask of choice. Given my age and various susceptibilities such that my next serious respiratory infection could well be my last, I never leave home without it. As a result, I’ve never had Covid, nor the flu over these last six years.
After much experimentation, I have concluded that Envomasks are the best available n95 respirators. They fit beautifully, have easily replaceable filters, you can talk to someone while wearing one with no problems, and they are designed so you can slip them off to hang around your neck easily, which is fantastic in environments where you are putting your mask on and taking it off a lot.
Now they are available on Amazon, I see, so they are about half the price they used to be when getting them direct from the manufacturer.
FWIW.
I would add that early in on the pandemic, there were effectiveness charts – included, I believe, some quoted on this very blog – between different mask types. Sure, even properly worn surgical masks never reached the >95% effectiveness of N95s and the like, especially against aerosols, but some level of protection – even, say, 50% or 70% – is still better than zero.
Of course, wearing the mask down below the nose, which I never could understand conceptually – do people not get the whole point of wearing a mask in the first place? – but which many continue to do even today, kind of destroys the whole concept.
And I must say I personally know of individuals who, when Omicron came around, got infected despite wearing surgical masks in public places. [While pointing and laughing at my duck-billed N95…]
Because that is not why people were urged to wear masks. Seeing that I can use a hat I’m going to take that straw you brought.
The reason to wear a mask is to reduce the distance that droplets travel, reduced distance means less area covered which means less chance of others inhaling them. Which means that surgical masks work, just not (as well) for the person wearing them as for the people in their surroundings.
Stephen Petty on why masks can’t work:
https://rumble.com/v1fcord-industrial-hygienist-and-ppe-expert-stephen-petty-the-truth-about-cloth-mas.html
Repeating a fallacy no matter how many times will never make it truthful.
If you haven’t noticed, you really picked the wrong site to push that garbage.
Rando: “Why do you wear a mask?”
A: Because I took middle school science. And passed.
During the pandemic, were masks politicized in any other country?
One anecdata – I wasn’t there during the pandemic, but during normal cold and flu season you’d see masks in Korea all the time, with no issues. Can’t imagine there being one during COVID season, other than a large uptick in use.
I did a tour in Korea in ’62/’63. Half the population sported them in the winter.
I live in Korea now, but I lived in China during the pandemic.
People around East Asia wear masks all the time. It’s common courtesy if you’ve got a cold. It was no issue for people here to wear masks during COVID, just seen as the usual thing to do.
For all the people relitigating mask effectiveness, you’re missing the point entirely: it was a VERY SMALL inconvenience asked of the American public. The downstream “inconveniences” of Hormuz have the potential to cause major unrest
A bit in France but nothing like in the USA. The far right sovereignist types see them as a globalist conspiracy, bien entendu.
I see people with masks occasionally these days and it’s very reassuring. At the airport, there are lots of people with them and mostly the FFP2. The message that the surgical masks are much less effective has not really penetrated because the government didn’t make it clear but danced around the issue, I think for fear of people rebelling against taking any personal protection measures (cost was a big issue).
Any pharmacist (we have good ones) will tell you to wear the respirators.
I don’t get down on people wearing the surgical masks because at least it’s doing something and shows some concern for others. And sometimes it is just a cold.
Someone wearing a surgical mask is not projecting an exhalation plume. So they are much less likely to infect others.
It just doesn’t protect the wearer much.
This. Covid was especially reliant on small numbers of superspreaders. If a superspreader wears a crappy mask that reduces their output by even 50% it makes a big difference in the overall numbers.
What I found extra humorous was the idea that Fox had The Masked Singer on the telly, as their various vocal cords on the news staff were making fun of ‘chin diapers’.
Problem with the Junited States is that the govt there has done evil things, it hides them from the public, and anyone who tries shed light on it or talk about it are labeled “CONSPIRACY THEORISTS” and “KOOKS” and instantly discredited. So there is a signficant portion of the population that distrusts the government automatically. There is a knee-jerk reaction to lash out against any government mandates, even if the govt mandates are not actually evil or bad.
Of course we are talking about a government that blew JFK’s head off with a rifle because he threatened to do the right thing (pull out of Vietnam, classify the Israel lobby as a foreign agent, break up the CIA into a thousand pieces and scatter them into the wind).
We are talking about a government that put holes in the back of Seth Rich’s head because he leaked some illegal shiet that the Democrat party apparatus was doing.
We are talking about a government that engages in deadly virus research – “Gain of Function” – that would make the WW2-era Japanese and German governments proud. For example, Lyme disease was created by the US govt in the 60’s with the intention of spreading it in Cuba, and accidentally released to the Junited States public in the 70’s. SARS-CoV2 was also created under a US Govt research program, and it would’ve been created inside the Junited States itself except for some strange reason Obama decided that research programs for making viruses more deadly to humans maybe wasn’t a good idea, and he forbade the govt from doing gain of function research inside the Junited States. Of course the deep state actors kept doing it anyways (they must really think having deadly viruses gives them great power and leverage) — they simply outsourced the research to US-funded labs outside the Junited States (Wuhan, China in this case). There are dozens, maybe hundreds, of these biolabs in Georgia and Ukraine and God knows where else, that Junited States funds to do virus research. Some of the research might be legitimate — I’m not saying every and all research they do is evil. Just like some of the activity done by NED might be legitimate, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that NED was created by the CIA as an instrument of regime change and whatever “pro-democracy” activity NED does is just a cover.
Now back to masks. Obviously a disease that spreads through the air by aerosol particles (which COVID is by the way) can be stopped from infecting you by simply preventing these particles from entering your mouth and your nostrils. This is just really, really obvious and I’m surprised at how so many people cannot grasp this simple concept. But it should also be obvious that the “masks” people wear, made of bandana fabric or whatever, and with giant 2-inch air gaps between their nose bridge and their cheeks, will do absolutely nothing to prevent you from breathing in whatever is in the air in your environment.
Junited States govt flunkies going on TV and telling people to wear these pantyhose and bandana on your face with the giant air gaps, and saying that will prevent the disease, and oh by the way this is mandatory and forced upon you, was maybe not the best idea.
How about simply telling people the truth? Yes filtering out these aerosol particles before you breathe it in will prevent disease. But to do that you need a minimum N95, and preferably P100 filter material and no air gaps in your mask setup. How to make sure you have no air gap? You do a pressure check. You need a rigid mask, like the one auto body painters use (I have one, it’s P100 with a chemical filter). You cover the air inlet holes with your hands, press tightly, and breath in. You will feel great pressure as the mask gets sucked into your face from the negative pressure building up inside the space between your face and the mask. This is how you know there is no air gap. This is actually a very simple processs. Cover the air inlet holes, breath in, feel the resistance against your lungs and feel the mask get sucked into your face. If there was an air gap, you will feel and hear the outside air coming in. It’s really simple.
Of course the Junited States govt has a pathological aversion to telling the truth, so it lies even when it doesn’t have to. That’s the problem when you have so many sins. Also it doesn’t help that the idiots working in the govt are actual idiots with no life experience or intelligence or competence in anything, other than the ability to take donation money from the donor class and lie for in front of a camera. You know, be a good “politician” by speaking smoothly and saying all the right things in campaign speechs. They are selected for this. There is great selective pressure in the Junited States political machinery to promote these kind of people. And there is great selective pressure to weed out people who have a moral compass and reluctance to lie.
Woah!
This reminds me of the Dan Aykroyd character in the Robert Redford film Sneakers.
No thanks.
In my opinion, the term j_____ States crosses a line that the term USrael does not. The former seems clearly racist and the latter concerns the merger of two governments of supposedly independent nations. Whatever else you may have gotten right or wrong (some of both, I think) is severely tainted.
The term “j_____ States” is completely unacceptable bigotry, full stop.
Agreed.
Thank you Sibiriak and Don.
Mindful that I am NOT making an assignment, just a heartfelt plea, to admins to add this word to the ban list.
This isn’t the first time I’ve seen it in a comment in the past week or so and in my opinion it is beneath the dignity of this exceptional site.
Indeed. A poor choice of a word, whether mindless or as can be suggested: mindful; which is worse and what manipultion? There is a sameness in the misconception of life on earth, and humanities place in it.
Thank you Alice X.
The last time I saw the word here, IIRC it was also accompanied by or closely followed with a different more subtle racial slur against a different set of human beings.
I’m just making notes along the way, for the record, that not every reader of this wonderful site agrees with the usage of such language or other allusions to racial stereotypes. In fact I believe that every regular poster or commenter here disagrees with such language and sentiments.
Caught this late.
Agreed and he has been blacklisted.
Yes. Germany. See: C.J. Hopkins.
I suspect that Iran is targeting Americans at home in different ways. For the wealthy, stocks and bonds are being hit and wealthy people do not like that one bit. They were suppose to make bucket loads of money on this war. For ordinary Americans, they are hitting gas and food prices. You can’t tell me that the Iranians did not game this out years ago. So which group will force Trump to end this war quicker?
Iran is not “targeting Americans,” FFS. It is hurting India, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Australia, and Southeast Asia far worse than the US. It has only a very blunt instrument at its disposal.
All of that is quite true. But it is the US and only the US that can end this war. The other countries would be considered collateral damage though Iran may not be so sympathetic as most cooperated in the US sanctions regime. And many of them voted against Iran at the UN several weeks ago to boot.
I disagree. Only Israel and Iran can end this war. The USA is the big dog, but it has a collar and a leash. If Israel and Iran could reach a modus vivendi, the war would be over.
The operating manual for Israel doesn’t seem to refer to a modus vivendi setting.
Maybe Israel could go back to selling arms to Iran?
If enough Gulf countries deny the use of their airspace, could not the operational realities prevent any serious resumption of kinetic activity by the United States? If everyone else comes to some kind of arrangement, Trump can continue his petulant blockade, but the rest of the world can perhaps move on. Trump can’t intercept every vessel.
Yes, military resources on Carriers 1000 Km away, or stationed at Diego Garcia, are not effective interceptors.
I think that is the easiest way to stop the war.
But, when Yves was discussing the same thing above I did have the disagreeable niggling thought that all those billions of dollars belonging to Saudi Arabia that are sitting in New York are very vulnerable.
The gulf states are stuck between weighing up two very unpleasant choices. Losing their country or losing all their money.
Maybe? Pretty sure they have been reminded about that already.
Maybe you didn’t notice the S&P making new highs. Those highs are due to the AI mania not war profits. Wealthy people do not buy bonds for profit. They buy bonds for income, Speculators buy bonds for profit. When yields go up bonds become attractive for their income. When a recession is eminent money comes out of stocks and into bonds. Anyone holding energy stocks are doing fine but high energy prices usually end in a recession. Try to remember that for every sell there has to be a buy. Speculators are selling to investors who will pocket the higher interest. When the recession hits the FED will lower rates, which will increase the price of bonds. Then money will come out of bonds and into a discounted stock market.
Smart money is not political.
The ultra-wealthy may also invest in corporate bonds, and higher yields mean that the price of those bonds falls. And sometimes, if we get lucky, we get a bankruptcy, and those bonds end up paying out pennies on the dollar. See, Spirit Airlines, Sears, etc.
Pull up a chart of the “JNK” ETF during 2008-2009.
Agree, buy long-term treasuries.
Treasury yields have been slowly rising, prices falling on account of inflation. IMO this is different from Dotcom and GR in the size of the inflation spike that’s just started.
Eventually yields will reverse if we get recession, but that’s not yet the market bet.
Regarding American stocks & bonds…
…why be limited to just 1 currency in your investment scheme?
As Yves says, we’ve got the cleanest dirty shirt. China looks good, but they’re the big exporter and their exports will likely take the biggest hit if world goes into recession. Eu/Japan/s Korea maybe making bad decisions. Russia looks to come out of this the big winner. Iran rial might be a great spec. Other than these, who? And I have no idea how to invest in them.
Depends on your time frame. It all comes out in the wash. Foreign equities have much lower PE’s then the US. Every market has its day.
All done! Please refresh the page if you arrived before the time of this comment.
Thanks for the hard work. One tiny proofreading note for you:
“That means China’s best alternative is foreign demand, as in exports….which do not look like a good outlet given the increasingly dire state of the global economy, and in particular its biggest esport markets, Southeast Asia and Europe”
Fixing, thanks!
What a reasoned voice of thinking Chas Freeman is, after a lifetime of achievements in a myriad of fields.
He was an old school ambassador in the same mold as Joseph Grew, not a flunky such as current ones who simply have the right financial or political connections, and little else to offer in their resumes.
Am I wrong in thinking that the trip to China was perhaps a last gasp for Teetotalitarian Leader?
…summer is coming
Are you sure that it is not a case of Winter is Coming?
Game of Drones?
It’s all fun and games until the Iranians shout “Dracarys!”
Summer is coming
Because that’s our big drive and playtime here in the US
And all things Iran inflation are really going to bite
Summer is coming is very good. it increasingly becoming the most difficult season in many places.
‘But tectonic plates are moving, particularly on the market and economic front. Will they produce a big earthquake and tsunamis, as we have feared, or minor tremblors that relieve pressure and make new types of motion possible?’
This put me in mind of what John Michael Greer once said. He was talking about collapse and was saying that it won’t be like a gradual down slope nor will it be like a sudden collapse. Instead, it will be like going down the side of a ziggurat pyramid where you drop down one level, go along for a bit, then go down another level on your way down.
In a book we have discussed, Ubiquity, the authors looked at earthquakes as well as physical models for what happens when complex systems build up too much pressure or are otherwise in a critically unstable state and something needs to give.
They found that large chaotic changes are far from given, that a small shift or succession of small changes can put the system back into a more stable state.
Not sayin’ we are likely to get such a break, but Greer has strong priors. But Joseph Tainter (who explicitly rejected that the caliber of leadership could make a difference) had to admit that the Roman Empire pulled itself out of its collapse trajectory several times before its terminal decline.
While trying to find out who he was and if I needed to read his works, I noticed from googling the name that the references I could find to “Jacques” Tainter were from NC, with you mentioning him in another thread. Do you actually mean Joseph Tainter?
Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988) argues that civilizations collapse when the cost of maintaining their complexity exceeds the benefits, leading to diminishing returns on investment in problem-solving. The book analyzes numerous historical collapses (like Rome, Maya, Chaco) and proposes that societies become unsustainable as they invest more resources into complexity, eventually reaching a point where the costs of maintaining infrastructure, bureaucracy, and solutions become unproductive, leading to a rapid simplification or collapse.
Other mention of “Jacques” https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/04/more-on-devolution-and-the-walmartization-of-our-economy.html
I do this all the time. I have serious name dyslexia. Will correct in the original comment.
You had mentioned the name dyslexia before. ;-)
I just wanted to make sure I wasn’t missing out on some good reading!
This period reminds me of Minsky and also Hopf: Hard men create good times. Good times create soft men. Soft men create hard times.
Collapse vs. contraction vs. “great simplification” – these similar terms produce different reactions in the listener, especially relatively naive listeners – does it make a difference, really? I wonder. As Mark Twain may have said, truth is strong medicine – people can only take small doses.
Depends on the listener/speaker?
How does that go, “If my neighbor is out of work, that’s a recession. If I’m out of work, it’s a depression?”
The speculation that Iran will suffer enormously if it runs out of storage space for oil, which is possibly true, ignores the fact that Gulf states like Kuwait have had to cease pumping for months now. Where are reports of damage there? How will it impact future production and longer term oil prices?
This is just more evidence of the Mighty Wurlitzer at work–hyping damage to the enemy, covering it up for allies.
It was borne in a crossfire missile hurricane
And I howled at Donald of the driving pain
But it ain’t alright now, in fact, it’s a morass
But it ain’t alright, the jumpin’ price of gas
It’s a gasp, gasp, gasp
It was raised by a Torah Torah Torah attack
I was schooled with a strap right across my back
But it ain’t alright now, in fact, it’s a morass
But it ain’t alright, the jumpin’ price of gas
It’s a gasp, gasp, gasp
A jet was downed, the pilot wasn’t left for dead
I fell for the rescue story they said, yeah yeah
I frowned at the crumbs of a crust of misled, yeah yeah yeah
I was crowned with a spike right through my head, messed with my head
But it ain’t alright now, in fact, it’s a morass
But it ain’t alright, the jumpin’ price of gas
It’s a gasp, gasp, gasp
Jumpin’ price of gas, it’s a gasp
Jumpin’ price of gas, it’s a gasp
Jumpin’ price of gas, it’s a gasp
Jumpin’ price of gas, it’s a gasp
Jumpin’ price of gas, it’s a gasp
Jumpin’ price of gas, it’s a gasp
Jumpin’ Jack Flash, by the Rolling Stones
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXUJMaYzh6U&list=RDKXUJMaYzh6U
Keef would approve.
Meanwhile, in these parts, the state gas tax holiday expires on Wednesday, just in time to deliver a punishing upper-cut to local wallets. Planning to drive for Memorial Day trips? Get ready!
“Pampered USA”?
That may be true of the 10% who make up 50% of consumption, however the long lines at the food banks, the beggars on street corners and the people sleeping under bridges indicate that the bottom 50% are not pampered.
60% of American Households could not afford a sudden $400 expense before the Ramadan War as Elon Muskk looks to become America’s first Trillionaire.
“Land of the Fee and Home of the Grave” is what Po’ Folks have to look forward to.
“pampered”…when we’re not dodging bullets or being incarcerated at rates unlike other countirea.
“countries”….coffee in hand now…
Yeah. The wealthy will never acknowledge that a radically unequal society is sicker, more dangerous, and not as good, for everyone. Even if you make a lot of money.
The top 10% will put on bullet proof vests to make their Starbucks runs before they grasp the concept that we need different arrangement for society. Really just spending less on war and not supporting other things. Not supporting the kind of consumption we take for granted so we could get on the degrowth track would be good too.
And the USA still has its way of getting their version of slave labor thru that prison system.
I am sure one can get Armani style bulletprood suits in Latin America. Bulletproof vests are so passe.
Good point. The tent city in my town is growing, as are the numbers of people standing at corners hoping for some cash. These are persons who don’t matter to those in the white house. To the 10% that both make up 50% of consumption and own most of the stocks, they are just now starting to realize that those dark clouds on the horizon could affect them! As we’ve seen Trump does care about stock indexes.
Go hang out with women from Myanmar, who are sold as slaves and raped pretty much daily. Or slum-dwellers in Thailand who have no running water. Or poor Indians who make a living trying to harvest garbage dumps.
Americans are papered. Things we take for granted like clean tap water and power are luxuries for the lower classes in poor countries.
Flint and other places come to mind.
“Clean” tap water is a luxury and I don’t think the government is too worried about the comfort of most. No telling what happens with the AI data center craze which may be hyped, but could do more damage.
Some around the govt want rnigrant and immigration policies that give fewer rights and more temp status. That would be ripe for massive abuses of people.
I guess we’re cracking on an establishment that is already working on making sure there’s less pampering.
People started to think that clean tap water should not be a luxury, but an important part of public health at least a century and a half ago and much of the fall in mortality in late 19th/early 20th centuries was attributed to it becoming widespread, iirc, even more than advances in medicine. It’s sad if we think we can do away with it without paying a big price…
Gaza is one of many warnings.
Or that huge Filipino garbage city. Literally. There are places where the water we flush is cleaner than what they have for drinking.
As the saying rightly goes, “All over the world there are people who’d give anything to have your life and your ‘problems.’ Appreciate what you have and stop your kvetching about the barista using oat milk instead of soy.”
As you and others have said, people in the US, even our poor, have benefits that put them among the global 1% compared to the lower classes in many other countries.
But pur poor and middle class are not complaining about barristas. They’re complaining about the everything they were told they can’t have for reasons no one will explain clearly.
“And Iranians have and will continue to accept far higher levels of pain than the pampered US can.”
The rentierism is a slow torture and kill…for a while now.
Re: Bond markets
My social media timeline has been swamped with posts about “the most dangerous bond market in history”.
Is there an off-ramp to this? Will Japan start selling off large quantities of USTs to try and strengthen JPY?
The algorithm that determines your feed is set to maximize your engagement. Therefore, the headlines and magnitude of calamity is a reflection of your greatest concern. It is not necessarily a true reporting of the state of the world.
However, I, in my poorly informed opinion, do think that yields will be rising to a new norm. There are many contributors.
Japan holds about $1.4T of UST as of mid April. If they sell before maturity, who will buy?
I don’t think it’s selling before term that matters but how many show up at the auction.
Summary: situation for bonds is concerning, particularly if your business requires continued low yield. No one’s dumping at loss, yet.
Regarding the potential loss of the GCC (or some of it at least) as “neutral” toward Iran, I’m struggling to see how this would be a bad thing for regular Americans, and what the impacts would be.
We lose bases there, but these bases are a drain on American finances and support.
Gasoline might be a little more expensive than it was, but presumably lower than it has spiked to, once Iran’s toll regime through the Strait is in place and tankers are moving again.
I suppose we lose the investment $$$ from places like UAE, and such, but was that really benefiting average Americans? I’m curious. It seemed like most of their investments I’d read about were dumb and gratuitous, as in helping to keep the AI/tech balloon inflated. Or just open bribery, like the Trump plane; but I’m not super dialed into the money flows, and so am curious what we were getting out of the bargain
During the first Iraq War, an anonymous Japanese was quoted suggesting “we don’t care who owns the oil, just that they sell it to us.”.
The average American may be of a similar mindset, but they don’t count.
The USA has many people whose livelihood depends on trouble being stirred up around the world.
Peace is not good for their family fortunes as their “conflict is good” biases are projected onto the American population.
Observe all the war advocates in media, think tanks, lobbyists and academia.
The drain on American finances of USA militaristic behavior flows to someone, who will fiercely justify their continuation.
Didn’t the Gilens-Page 2014 study find that average Americans have little influence on USA policy?
I’m not familiar with that study, (will check it out), but I think it’s practically self-evident at this point that average Americans have little influence on US policy. I would say like 99% of Americans have no influence on US policy if the public opinion surveys on Iran are accurate. My hope is that if the bullies that run our country get run out of the places they’ve been bullying for the last several decades, the world will be a better place.
But I guess my fear is that they’ll just come home and take it out on us.
I’m trying to think of historic examples of a population ending up better off when the militaristic brutes governing them get run out, or at least contained, and can’t really think of one. Maybe Japan after WWII, but the entire society had to bear a terrible cost to get there.
Perhaps some evidence of the bias toward military action is the ratio of the USA’s Peace Corps budget to the USA’s military budget.
2026 Peace Corps budget is 410 million.
The USA military budget is around 1 trillion.
As a percentage the Peace Corps budget is 4.1E8/1E12 × 100 or about 0.041% of the USA military budget
This does not include the CIA spending which one may suggest is not a force for peace.
In my view, this is some strong, indirect, evidence of a bias for military action over peace for many in the USA.
A lot of USA incomes depend the status quo continuing.
This is the study:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/abs/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B
I talked about it in a speech I gave the other day:
“The professors compared public opinion, as defined by nearly 1800 public opinion surveys over 20 years, to the policies that ended up becoming law.
Each survey asked a clean support/oppose question about a policy. Each had income data associated with its answers, so the professors could figure out, for each survey, what the people at the 10th, 50th, and 90th income percentiles thought on a topic—proxies for poor, middle income, and rich persons’ opinions. Those opinions were compared to policy outcomes.
In addition to the survey data, the professors looked at the positions on the survey issues taken by lobby groups, both mass-membership based (think AARP) and business- or industry-based.
They used a list of 35 powerful lobby groups and for each issue, they added up the groups on the list that were for the policy and subtracted the ones opposed to it. They did three net numbers; one for all 35 interest groups, one for just the business and industry interest groups, and one for just the mass-movement groups. The net numbers on a given issue were compared to the policy outcomes.
By “policy outcomes”, the professors meant whether and how the policy changed in the four years following the asking of the survey question. In fact, if the policy changed, it usually changed within two years.
Their sophisticated analysis proved what your common sense tells you: Congress enacts what business lobbyists and major campaign contributors want in total disregard of individual public opinion.
Or in their academic prose: “Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.”
Here’s the really important bit: the study was published 2014, and the data is even older–from 1981 to 2002. That data set long predates Citizens United; we must do more than simply reverse that decision. “
Good question, and I don’t claim to have an answer except the form of another question, as follows.
The petro-capital system seems to have been: US militarily protects Saudi and other Gulf states (local bases came later), and the Gulf states recycle profits from their oil sales into U.S. Treasury bonds — that is, into financing the U.S. Federal deficit.
That arguably made sense when Saudi cut the deal with Nixon: not long after he took the USD off “the” gold standard, and when the U.S. increasingly relied on net imports of oil.
{ Superfluous detail omitted }
So a next question in the sequence of questions can be: who captures benefits from the Federal deficit?
“who captures benefits from the Federal deficit?”
The bond holders — they’re the ones on the other side of the ledger.
We, the US, lose the ability to project direct, physical force around the globe. The threat of such force has kept the world dancing to our tune.
Sure, the wealthy and connected made out like bandits, but we plebs also got cheap consumer goods and a measure of affluence unparalleled compared to the vast non-western majority.
If Iran is able to effect a permanent US retreat from GCC bases then the veil is removed, the US will no longer be unbeatable, global hegemony has been successfully challenged.
For decades we’ve carefully kept the veil in place. The rest of the world has not deemed it worth the effort to challenge. Until this administration.
Going forward, the rest of the world may well burn, we will be singed, but, above all, we will not escape degradation.
Richard Medhurst wrote about “How the US Pulled off an Armed Robbery of the World’s Energy Supply and Created the Petrogas-Dollar” https://substack.com/home/post/p-196141950
My reaction was that that plan, while possible, assumes an astounding amount of planning by the US, still requires a lot to go right for the US and probably underestimates the resilience of the rest of the world.
Jaimie Galbraith proposes an alternative: a quick, devious plan to raise oil prices and profiteer short term from West Texas oil, something that seems more in line with Trump and his cronies: https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentP/4/567467/Opinion/The-Iran-standoff-and-the-future-of-oil.aspx
While making a fast buck now, it’s not clear how long Trump and his cronies can out…
Here’s an alternative source for the same thing:
https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-armed-robbery-world-energy-supply-petrogas-dollar/5924769
Until I read that, I thought tRUMP’s B.S. was keeping the US dollar high.
And Iranians have and will continue to accept far higher levels of pain than the pampered US can.
I see this a lot, in different places, but have to wonder, “So what?” Are the whines and cries and pleas of the groundlings going to make a whit of difference to Trump and his oligarchs? Will there be a mass replacement of legislators with intentions and abilities of Actual Change, or will the System* simply make sure that duh voters just put in the Other Wing Of The Same Bird and it makes sure we meet the new boss, same as the old boss?
*sorry. reading a lot of isekai literature lately and it just slipped in. ;-)
“Are the whines and cries and pleas of the groundlings going to make a whit of difference to Trump and his oligarchs?”
OLH,
Perhaps not much will happen in the short term but, over time, earning the hatred of the unwashed has not turned out well for the rulers. Anecdata: most folks in my union were Trump supporters. Quite a few are now very puzzled with what they see. The problem is, all hate kamala-democrats even more. These are strong people who make things, know how to plan projects, and can be pushed only so far. How far is the key question, but they are grumbling.
…earning the hatred of the unwashed has not turned out well for the rulers.
Agreed! But so long as the unwashed have cake to eat…. ;-)
Seriously, though, bread and circuses as means of keeping the groundlings less disgruntled have been around for literally thousands of years. Today’s circuses are beyond the wildest dreams of Rome, but the oligarchs are kinda slipping up on the “bread” part. How does that go, “a population is only three meals away from revolution?”
“Today’s circuses are beyond the wildest dreams of Rome”
Are they? They had blood sports.
I ride the bus every day through East Cleveland, OH, formerly the home of John Rockefeller among other millionaires during his heyday. There are numerous streets right off the main street that runs down the center where every house is abandoned and falling down and they just put concrete barriers at the ends to prevent people from driving. At this point I would say there are about 3 times as many abandoned buildings and vacant lots as occupied homes and businesses. The former mayor was just convicted of numerous counts of fraud and the police are renowned for the level of corruption. The gas stations across the street from the high school are known prostitute hangouts at all hours of the day and night. Most residents know not to drink the tap water due to the lead amounts and because of all of the overgrown trees downed power lines are a frequent hazard. Seeing homeless people pushing carts full of junk they hope to sell for scrap is a daily sight. As a whole yes America is better off but there are plenty of areas here that are as shockingly impoverished as any poor country and not at all equipped to handle anything like what is on the horizon for us economically. If 9 missed meals is all it takes to start a revolution then there is a pretty significant swath of Americans on the edge. I just wish people were more deliberate in identifying which Americans are pampered because it certainly isnt my demographic.
If 9 missed meals is all it takes to start a revolution…
—————————————————————————–
Revolutions are rare, and in any case, as Barrington Moore astutely observed,
Can the US mount these attacks on the desired scale if most Gulf states refused to let their airspace and what is left of their airbases be used?
Sure. It’s not like the US is going to respect any alleged denial – and what are the Gulf states going to do, launch interceptors and missiles against American B52s flying overhead?
Also, is the refusal just for public consumption? Public refusal with a wink and a nod to the US?
Reports say a large deployment of KC 135 in Saudi Arabia. Also some AWACS. There is plenty of jet fuel since the restricted commercial flying.
Uncle Sam pays well, and Saudi can claim the refueling is done over the gulf…..
Or the Saudi edge to less reliance on U.S.
“Reliance on the US” of late has done them a shit ton of damage.
I wonder if Iran sees those reports . . .
China and Russia are surely relaying info.
Could be hard for those KC-135s to land on destroyed runways upon return to base.
“Reliance on the US” of late has done them a shit ton of damage.
Truedat! Though I suspect that the oligarchs of the region are also making sure that their GTFOuttaDodge beds are well feathered and that the US and its vassals won’t have any reason to take umbrage at their service in the war.
Trump posts image on social media warning of ‘calm before the storm’
‘Rio Slade 🔻
@RioSlade
Nissan joins Toyota in warning of looming motor oil shortage
Nissan confirmed the authenticity of a draft bulletin warning U.S. dealers about a 45% year-over-year cut in motor oil supply’
Would this not effect car production? They can hardly push out cars that have no motor oil in them, can they?
Trying to think ahead, what I think this means is that people will do less frequent oil changes, which will lead to more engine wear and shorter engine life, and at some point a large demand for engine parts and costly engine refurb work.
One could hope that an adaptation will be “less discretionary driving” to eke more time out of the engine wear.
Sounds like we will be going back 80 years into the past with the re-appearance of the WW2 slogan-
“Is this trip really necessary?”
https://x.com/RickSchindler/status/1237126245655216130
It was about this time in 1942, when licensed drivers in the USA were limited to 5 gallons of go-juice a week~
Of course that was in an era when you did not have much suburban spread.
My memory was a bit faulty, average Joes got 3 gallons a week, later reduced to 2 gallons a week in 1944.
Well, those Joes working for Uncle Sam in exotic locales generally had their transportation on the house. The Janes in the factories and cities didn’t necessarily need a private car to get to work either.
It seems to me that there will be new business opportunities for recycling oils. Cleaning and purifying them for reuse. Someone talked about this before and I don’t remember the details.
There are always opportunities to recycle and reuse if primary resupply becomes challenged
I think that a certain amount of “re-refining” may be needed. I have the impression that viscosity progressively declines as oil ages in an engine. Perhaps cleaned oil could be re-graded to lower viscosity rather than refractionating it.
US has for so long been accustomed to discarding things rather than restoring them. Hopefully there are sufficient competencies to adapt at scale to shortages.
Mechanical shearing from moving through pump and engines parts reduces viscosity.
The old STP brand oil treatment added might extend oil life.
I do not know if one could extend oil life.
If you do the oil filter may become sludged.
there was a link about diy filtering and/or refining used motor oil the other day…perhaps from Ann.
i commented that the filtering is relatively easy…just run it through a buncha filters of whatever kind you can get, until its relatively clear.
likely end up with a lower viscosity than the original.
refining…rather, distilling…is more complex…and the article didnt have near enough detail to attempt it with any degree of safety….but in a major crunch, i can see having such a set-up already built and ready would be a boon to someone like me, way out here. if nothing else, for lamp oil.
like i said then, anyone who’s made likker could likely get her done.
and i prolly have all the materials required to rig such a system up on hand.
ethanol, soap, methanol(for biodeisel), and brandy would be easier for me, since i already understand the chemistry/physics of those.
bleach is pretty easy, too…salt and water in a clear jug, left in sun…just let it cool before opening it,lol.
like i said then, anyone who’s made likker could likely get her done.
Hopefully not using the same pot…. :-)
:-)
— When I makes tea I makes tea, as old mother Grogan said. And when I makes water I makes water.
— Begob, ma’am, says Mrs Cahill. God send you don’t make them in the one pot.
(I trust that this allusion is obvious for some / many here.)
Like how “vodka” is the diminutive for water (“voda”)?
Teapot and chamber pot for those struggling with the joke …
Using a thicker oil would last longer, especially when refining later. My 2006 Toyota diesel is spec’ed for 10W-30 but I use heavy equipment 10W-40. Only difference is longer time to reach operating temp – not a problem here in Qld Oz. Bear Grylls first doco, before he was well known, centered on the fight between locals and owners of the PNG OK Tedi mine. In it the locals scavenged abandoned trucks and ran them on their own home brewed coconut oil, of which they got 3 grades including weapons grade. Think you would enjoy the resourcefulness of the locals in scavenging equipment off the mine site and repurpose it e.g. pig motors used for hydro electric generation etc.
From the fuel side of things the big drama is reaching a high enough flash point. Recently Oz has lowered the flash point requirements of diesel to allow more supply. Draw back is its not as efficient and burns a bit dirtier, emissions/harder on engine in the long run. Older engines handle it better than the higher tolerance new engines. On that note my grandfather from Iowa told me long ago about how they swapped out transmission oil in bitter cold with kerosene oil.
Anyway … its going to be interesting to watch how demand destruction works out, just like with Covid. Substitutes, new supply chains, and if long enough things will not go back to ***Normal***.
Actually, STP was largely a scam. They were successfully sued on two occasions by the FTC for false advertising. But in those days, who knew? Every race car in America had an STP label…it was the cat’s meow, right?
The oil is forever, the additives are not.
I would expect it to show up even more in synthetic components like tires, hoses, wiring insulation, etc. Hell, most car body parts are made out of plastic these days. Might take a little longer to work its way through the system because the multiple steps involved in refining and manufacturing.
Had I a car I would get new tires pronto. Actually my e bike could use a retread as well…I have a vague recollection that wire insulation is a soy product…
Trump’s best option is to cut a deal with Vancee: Resignation in trade for a blanket pardon. With a Republican Congress he could even nominate his son as Veep to replace Vance. Otherwise 10 yr bonds are 4.6% which is probably less than the ‘actual’ rate of inflation people are experieincing.
White House Reveals Secret New Hospital for Trump, 79
https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-reveals-secret-new-hospital-for-donald-trump-79/
Trump says ISIS second-in-command killed in Africa
The president said Abu-Bilal al-Minuki was killed in a joint U.S.-Nigerian operation.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-says-isis-second-command-killed-africa-rcna345430
Iran parliament working on bill that proposes €50m reward for killing Trump
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605148010?source=share-link
BRICS members agree on ‘independent’ State of Palestine with East Jerusalem as capital
https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/brics-members-agree-on-independent-state-of-palestine-with-east-jerusalem-as-capital/article70984541.ece
Iran state TV says European countries in talks with Tehran for Hormuz transit
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/iran-state-tv-says-european-countries-in-talks-with-tehran-for-hormuz-transit/amp_articleshow/131137243.cms
Scientists Discovered a Brazilian Tree With an Unexpected Superpower
https://www.vice.com/en/article/scientists-discovered-a-brazilian-tree-with-an-unexpected-superpower/
France ready to develop ballistic missile defense with Ukraine, says Zelensky, calling it ‘important step’
https://kyivindependent.com/france-ready-to-develop-ballistic-missile-defense-with-ukraine-zelensky-calls-it-important-step/
China signals tariff cuts, advances in farm market access after Trump-Xi summit
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-signals-tariff-cuts-advances-farm-market-access-after-trump-xi-summit-2026-05-16/
Romania unveils AI-powered cruise missile that’s dramatically cheaper than rivals
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/romania-unveils-ai-powered-cruise-missile-1778926486.html
Taiwan responds to Trump’s independence warning
https://www.euronews.com/2026/05/16/trumps-independence-warning-prompts-response-from-taiwan
Deadly attack on Pakistan outpost puts Afghanistan ceasefire at risk
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/15/deadly-attack-on-pakistan-outpost-puts-afghanistan-ceasefire-at-risk
UAE to store 30 million barrels crude oil in India’s strategic petroleum reserve
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/uae-to-store-up-to-30-million-barrels-in-indias-oil-reserves-after-pm-modis-visit-2912567-2026-05-16
Turkish Parliament rejects proposal on Kurdish language rights
https://stockholmcf.org/turkish-parliament-rejects-proposal-on-kurdish-language-rights/
Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi warns Islamic Republic regime collaborators of future prosecution
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605155654
Iran Is Smuggling Millions Of Liters Of Fuel To Pakistan Every Day
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-pakistan-smuggling-fuel/33757626.html
Trump noncommittal to continued Taiwan arms sales after meeting with Xi
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/15/trump-taiwan-arm-sales-00923280
South Korea eyes nuclear-powered SMR ships
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/04/29/small-modular-reactor-powered-ships/4311777518288/
Are we near a ‘Taiwanschluss’?
US lets Russia oil waiver expire after disruption caused by war on Iran
Every Rocket Fired in Iran Is Money Stolen From the American People
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/iran-war-eisenhower-schools/
Trump has been fooled – but Maga haven’t even noticed yet
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/trump-xi-maga-iran-strait-of-hormuz-4419727
Donald Trump Deals New Blow to US Farmers on China Trip
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-deals-new-blow-to-us-farmers-on-china-trip-11957997
FAA cuts target for air traffic control staffing
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/faa-cuts-target-for-air-traffic-control-staffing.html
As AIPAC Spends Millions to Oust Him, Massie Unveils Bill Requiring Pro-Israel Lobby to Register as Foreign Agent
https://www.commondreams.org/news/thomas-massie-aipac-foreign-agents
UAE building pipeline to double oil exports that can bypass Hormuz
Accord to observers at the state banquet in China Mr Trump and others from the US ate no local food and were served by SS people. Before boarding AirForce 1 everything received in China was confiscated and disposed of.
This will have been noted by the Chinese and the appropriate judgements made.
It’s a world of slaughter
A world of tears
It’s a world of hopes
And a world of fears
There’s so much that they’d rather not share
That it’s time we’re aware
It’s a small country after all
It’s a small country after all
It’s a small country after all
It’s a small country after all
It’s a small, small country
There is just one chosen people who loom
They need more living room
And a Merkava means
Foreclosure to ev’ryone
Though the dogma divide
And to think they could live by the tide
Instead of side by side
It’s a small country after all
It’s a small country after all
It’s a small country after all
It’s a small country after all
It’s a small, small country
US orders travelers on Air Force One to throw away gifts, pins, and burner phones after China trip
https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/15/us-orders-travelers-on-air-force-one-to-throw-away-gifts-pins-and-burner-phones-after-china-trip/
MAGA is Reeling as Trump Welcomes Chinese Students to the U.S.
https://newrepublic.com/post/210539/maga-reeling-trump-welcomes-chinese-students-us-farms-xi
Trump’s description of Taiwan as a ‘good negotiating chip’ with China raises anxieties
https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-trump-arms-68eaac52b871e556aa6bd0509b101a90
The Damage of ‘Trump Math’ Is Adding Up
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/opinion/trump-data-war-on-numbers.html
Trump pushes to attach his SAVE act to must-pass bipartisan bills
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/16/trump-save-act-fisa-housing-bills-00925332
Venezuela says it deported close ally of Maduro to face judicial proceedings in US
https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-maduro-ally-057c22fe6e9b7022388eaeea2f1ecb52
Despite Repeated Bombings, CENTCOM Head Denies US Targeted Schools in Iran
https://truthout.org/articles/despite-repeated-bombings-centcom-head-denies-us-targeted-schools-in-iran/
Rising diesel costs from Iran war strain US school budgets
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rising-diesel-costs-iran-war-strain-us-school-budgets-2026-05-16/
How China is making the most of the US’ faltering global leadership
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3353687/how-china-making-most-us-faltering-global-leadership
Donald Trump defends China purchasing US farmland
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-defends-china-buying-us-farmland-11954094
How Do We Know the China Summit Was a Failure? Because Trump Did It. Everything he does on the world stage is disastrous, and the U.S. is reviled globally. How much longer will some idiots believe this “Art of the Deal” garbage?
https://newrepublic.com/post/210522/china-summit-failure-iran-jinping
asked by some random twitter person:”whats trump actually done for the world?”
me:”in process of:
1 inadvertently ending american empire/hegemony.
2. encouraging whole world to transition away from fossil fuels to green energy.
3.accidentally encouraging rest of world to figger out how to get out of dollar dominance.”
he’s maybe, accidentally, the catalyst for an actual real change in things
Brian Berletic said this will happen from memory.
If the USA’s modus operandi holds true they will hand off operations to a local power like Israel or/and the United Arab Emirates with their horde of takfiri head-chopping mercenaries who suddenly seem to be disengaging in Yemen and Libya for some reason and those local proxies will continue against Iran.
They don’t care about the stock markets, Trump does but he’s just their face-man. Trump’s job is to sell the operations the factions that put him in power run and he can grift as much money as he can in the process but he has to own their failures. This is exactly the way mafioso run their operations and the US geopolitical factions resemble mafioso on all levels.
These US factions don’t have much time and they have been moving quickly. They have pruned away allies of China which has stood by and done nothing. Russia is caught in Ukraine. Venezuela is gone. Iran is contained. Everyone else is under the US strategy of ‘maximum pressure’ and is too busy putting out social, economic or covert action fires out.
Trump is the ideal point man for this. Entirely without qualms, ready to own any action and so busy stealing the silverware that he’ll say anything to stay where he is. But his health is rapidly failing (too everyone’s glee) and the pressure seems to be killing him. A succession crisis might interfere with operations and Chine’s position is solidifying too fast to risk spending much further time in preparations
Normally the USA would switch to creating rebellions and wars on China’s periphery while fomenting unrest in its interior and waging economic warfare but they don’t see the time. China’s military now has parity in nearly every metric except nukes and subs and the Chinese are closing those gaps.
While the USA move to a kinetic phase against China soon?
I don’t know. There’s probably other factors and vectors of resistance we can’t be aware of. But I do know that when the USA no longer cares about the impacts to stocks (or thus unimportant people at home but they don’t really factor in, they’re so politically riven they cancel each other out) then that means the USA is preparing for a big push.