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Iran War: Lull Before Expected Big Strikes or Is Trump Stuck?

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[This Iran war post for once launched when done but I do have to run out. So if anything dramatic happens, I could provide an update when I return. That could happen as late as 9:00 AM EDT. I would flag that in comments and perhaps the headline too]

This will be a short post because for once, not much new seems to be happening, or rather it so far seems to be at the skirmish level. The US and Iran, as always, are impossibly far apart in their bargaining positions, even with the US having abandoned some demands such as that Iran abandon its regional allies, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Ansar Allah.1 There were attacks overnight on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and Tehran, but they were comparatively small and may have been the doing of the UAE (although Aljazeera now attributes them to the US), which Iran has been pounding fiercely in the last couple of days. As we will see soon, Iran may also have implemented a new strategy to block traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

The big picture is that not only is the US undeniably losing the Iran war, but also that Trump’s preferred tactics, of making radical seeming short-term moves and pronouncements with the aim of increasing his option and pressure opponents, are working against him. Iran so has the upper hand and willing to take pain that it is immune to pressure and likely recognizes much of Trump’s flailing about as proof of weakness. And normally, Trump’s punching out at available objects at least buys him time.

Here, as we have repeatedly said, time is not on Trump’s side. Every week of delay makes ground operations in the theater more difficult, and pretty much impossible as of June due to high heat and humidity. Even continuing the conflict at a low level further deplete the limited stocks of US weapson, and keeping a lot of men in theater is very costly. The damage to the real economy is compounding and that is likely to start to show up in ways that can’t be swept under the rug by the end of May, such as jet fuel shortages seriously monkey-wrenching air travel over the summer, and the real risk of average gas prices in the US rising to over $5.

Trump does seem to recognize the risk and is trying to sell that $8 at the pump is a worthwhile sacrifice. I doubt the great unwashed majority of already budget-stressed consumers will agree:

Note that Twitter, soon confirmed by Professor Mohammed Marandi on a Daniel Davis talk, confirmed that the Saudis are again letting the US use its facilities and air space. So the halt in use after Trump launched Project Freedumb without conferring with them may have been a slap on the wrist as opposed to a real break.

But this is a more recent sighting. Are the Saudis effectively saying, and kinda loudly, that they have a vote in the use of their airspace and no more US blank check?

More on the kinetic front, fresh from Aljazeera:

Bloomberg, which has a propensity to under-report clashes, is on the same page at Aljazeera. Its current banner:

From the Aljazeera live blog:

  • Iran’s military said United States forces targeted an Iranian oil tanker in coastal waters and a second vessel near the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah port, while US air strikes hit civilian areas in Bandar Khamir, Sirik and Qeshm Island in southern Iran. Iranian air defences were also active over western Tehran.
  • The US military said its naval forces came under Iranian missile, drone and fast-boat attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and responded by eliminating “inbound threats” and targeting “Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking US forces”.

Some finer points on who did what to whom:

A useful assessment:

“Infiltrated the blockade” is cute:

The key part is late in the tweet:

The empire’s destroyers were driven out of the Strait of Hormuz under sustained Iranian missile fire that exhausted layered defense and forced terminal-range CIWS engagement. The strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm were the empire’s cover fire for the withdrawal

We have been remiss in not showcasing tweets that showed a very big oil slick to the west and a bit south of Kharg Island, since no one seemed to have a good idea of its cause or significance. But there is now some kinetic action and surface fires in the Strait of Hormuz proper:

Additional informed speculation:

Iran is scolding the US in addition to retaliating. From Almayadeen:

Iran announced that the United States violated the ceasefire agreement by targeting Iranian oil tankers and civilian areas near the Strait of Hormuz, warning that Tehran would respond “forcefully” to any further attacks.

A spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said US forces attacked an Iranian oil tanker moving from Iranian coastal waters near the city of Jask toward the Strait of Hormuz.

The spokesperson added that another vessel entering the Strait of Hormuz near the Emirati port of al-Fujairah was also targeted. According to the Iranian military spokesperson, simultaneous US air attacks struck civilian areas along the coasts of Bandar Khamir, Sirik, and Qeshm Island, “in cooperation with regional states.”

The Aljazeera feed also includes:

WATCH: Trump says ceasefire still in effect, but Iran ‘better sign agreement fast’

US President Donald Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is still in effect, despite American and Iranian forces trading fire in the Strait of Hormuz last night.Trump threatened pain for Tehran unless it quickly signs a truce.

That segment included a short video with Trump making threats very much like the one in this post:

It also reports that three Japanese ship transited the Gulf without paying fees to Iran and the owner, Mitsui OSK Lines, declared it does not intend to pay any fees in the future. Mistui does operate tankers, and my impression of the evolving Iran policy on fees was that it would charge only oil tankers and cargoes of unfriendlies, if and when it finally does decide to allow them to pass.

Larry Johnson’s post today is consistent with what we have said from the very outset of this conflict: there will be no negotiated agreement due to the lack of overlap in positions. From The Gulf Separating the US and Iran is Too Wide to Bridge:

The US position rests on a number of false assumptions. First, Iran is not the leading sponsor of terrorism and has not been engaged in plots to destabilize it Gulf Arab neighbors. Second, there is no rift between the political leaders of Iran and the IRGC… the President, the Foreign Minister, the Head of the Iranian legislature and the Ayatollah all fought and served with the IRGC during the war with Iraq. Third, Iran’s economy is beginning to revive thanks to support from Russia, China and Pakistan and from the high price of oil. Fourth, notwithstanding Trump’s claims to the contrary, the Iranian navy, air force and ballistic missile, cruise missile and drones are intact and able to continue exchanging blows with the US and Israel.

Donald Trump faces several dilemmas… The US economy is beginning to falter with growing public anger over the surging price of gasoline. There are no viable military options to effect a regime change in Iran or to compel Iran to agree to US demands. The US supplies of critical weapons systems will be further depleted if the US renews its aerial and missile attacks on Iran, and Iranian retaliation on US and Israeli targets will inflict significant damage. As long as the US continues to attack Iran, its relations with Russia and China will deteriorate.

The real threat to the US is not military, it is economic. The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran confronts the world with an unprecedented economic threat. US attempts to block this will only worsen what will become a global economic catastrophe.

Aljazeera provides confirmation with an update on the negotiation theater:

‘Huge gap’ between Iran and US as ceasefire deal under review despite recent attacks

Neither side has yet announced the collapse of the ceasefire. The Americans say the ceasefire is still in place, while the Iranians are accusing the Israelis and Americans of violating it.

The spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry said his side is still reviewing the US proposal. There were reports that the response to the proposal was expected to be sent to Pakistani mediators yesterday.

This has not been confirmed, but Iranian officials are saying they’re still reviewing it. So despite this back-and-forth and these military confrontations, the diplomatic and mediation efforts seem to be still under way, and both sides are still interested in diplomatically engaging with each other.

Now, after Iran’s response, the picture is going to get pretty clear. So far, despite some optimism, Iranian officials are saying that several US demands are unreasonable, unrealistic and maximalist. There’s a huge gap between the positions of the two parties.

Nevertheless, Richard Pape warns that the US is still poised to escalate:

I am sure Pape will have more to say on today’s YouTubes (IIRC he has a regular Friday slot on Breaking Points).

We had said early on that another way, besides Mr. Market applying the choke chain, was for Gulf states to come to terms in some way with Iran or really become neutral. The US is trying to exercise residual influence in Iraq but it is largely in the Iran camp. Oman is trying to sit quietly on the side, as does (less convincingly) Qatar.

Pape was hopeful that the Gulf states, or at least the Saudi, were meaningfully going to check Trump, which would mean “game coming to an end soon”. We’ll give some of Pape’s observations from his post yesterday, with the huge caveat that the extent of Saudi limits on US support is not yet clear. From Pape:

The shift began when Iran struck energy-linked infrastructure near the UAE pipeline system connected to Fujairah — the last major bypass allowing Gulf oil exports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. That route can move roughly 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels per day outside waters Iran can directly threaten. (See my previous post to Escalation Trap).

The message was unmistakable: There is no longer a safe alternative to Hormuz.

Once that became clear, Gulf states faced a new calculation. Supporting expanded U.S. military operations no longer simply risked angering Iran. It risked placing their own economies, infrastructure, and regime stability directly inside the escalation zone.

Under those conditions, survival logic begins to overpower alliance logic. Put differently, states will abandon balancing strategies when these increase the danger to their survival…

If regional partners believed the United States could quickly restore control, they would be facilitating escalation….

Once allies begin hedging, the strategic costs compound rapidly. Military operations become harder. Credibility weakens. Rivals gain leverage. Neutral states reposition themselves. And every future escalation decision becomes more politically expensive than the last.

That does not mean the United States is weak. [Your humble blogger begs to differ! The US is weak as least compared to its outsized ambitions]

It means conventional military superiority alone is no longer producing reliable political control.

There is a difference. And wars become dangerous when great powers discover that difference in real time.

The next question is whether this becomes temporary hedging—or the beginning of a broader Gulf realignment away from Washington.

And the question after that is whether the US accepts declining power.

This may explain why the Saudis may be acting to get the Strait of Hormuz de facto closure resolved:

Trump may actually and finally be stymied. Putin gave a very strong warning. If John Helmer’s reading is correct, not only is the Xi meeting not officially on from the China side but it will not happen unless the US is both not engaged in kinetic operations and pretty actively involved in negotiations. Trump is obsesses with face so the meeting with Xi is more important to him than it ought to be.

But as Pape has also pointed out, great or ambitious powers often prefer to gamble on escalation, even if the odds of success are remote, than accept certain defeat and loss of stature via a retreat.

More on the economic front. Demand destruction is underway!

And:

We have been fixated on Iran and the Gulf environs. Some sightings to make up for our comparative neglect of Israel’s continued war crimes in Gaza and Southern Lebanon:

Astonishingly, official US rouses itself enough to make a handwave. From Aljazeera in Senators press US military on Israel’s displacement campaign in Lebanon:

Democrats in the United States Senate have raised questions about the US military’s potential role in establishing vast “evacuation zones” in Lebanon, Gaza and Iran.

In a letter addressed to Brad Cooper, head of the US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM), 12 legislators said mass displacement orders “likely contravene international laws the United States has helped develop around humane warfare”.

The letter – sent on Monday and made public on Thursday – largely focused on Israel’s conduct in Lebanon, where the Israeli military is systematically turning border towns that it has depopulated into rubble.

“The declaration of military evacuation zones has been used to permanently displace people and destroy homes and towns – acts that are in violation of international law,” the legislators wrote.

“Furthermore, no declaration of evacuation zones or ‘kill zones’ absolves Israeli and US forces from the absolute legal responsibility to determine that each individual person or civilian facility targeted by drones, jets, and gunfire is, in fact, a military target.”

And a BWAHAHA from the Times of Israel in With ceasefires on three fronts, hoped-for war gains suspended in dangerous limbo:

After being at war with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, Israel is now in a ceasefire against all three enemies.

The Israel Defense Forces has certainly caused significant damage to its adversaries on all those fronts, but by no means has the threat dissipated.

It acts as if, against evidence, that all these ceasefire are real, but then whinges at length about how Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRCG may be bloodied but are very much not bowed.

Towards the end, the article shows that Israelis are worried about Trump’s commitment:

Trump really, really does not want to go back to war

The US president might issue bombastic threats against Iran every day — Iran will be “blown off the face of the earth” if it strikes US vessels; he will bomb “at a much higher level and intensity” if Tehran refuses a deal — but it’s plain that he is desperate to avoid a return to war.

Last month, he indicated clearly that he wouldn’t extend the original two-week ceasefire. “I don’t want to do that. We don’t have that much time,” he said. “I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with.”

Then, hours before the truce was about to expire, he unilaterally extended it indefinitely, saying it was a Pakistani request. In the meantime, Iran is maintaining its effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Even Iran’s repeated bombing of the United Arab Emirates, a close ally of both the US and Iran, didn’t move Trump. Instead of making good on his bombast, he made excuses for Iran, insisting that it had not violated the ceasefire.

“[It was] not heavy firing,” Trump said. “They were shot down for the most part.”

Trump seems desperate for a deal, pushing back red lines, ignoring violations, and giving optimistic forecasts that Iranians reject.

One can hope, but Trump’s only way out is to throw up his hands and depart. I think it will take weeks more of bad economic news and other big embarrassing setbacks for that to happen. And as Pape keeps warning, escalation can always seem less bad.

Done for today! See you tomorrow!

_____

1 The US has not exactly given up on its requirement that Iran give up its long and medium range missiles, or at least have their number tightly capped. The latest US one-pager, per the Wall Street Journal, maintains that Iran must submit to having all military sites inspected. First, that would give the US an amazing information advantage. Second, it would set up the US creating the pretext that the missiles were somehow part of a stealth nuclear program and needed to go.

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124 comments

  1. vao

    Typo, but curiously it appears in the original article of the Times of Israel:

    “Even Iran’s repeated bombing of the United Arab Emirates, a close ally of both the US and Iran, didn’t move Trump.”

    I think what is meant is “Even Iran’s repeated bombing of the United Arab Emirates, a close ally of both the US and Israel, didn’t move Trump.”

  2. John Merryman

    Apparently Trump has never driven off-road. Stepping on the accelerator when you are already stuck only digs the wheels in deeper.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Just to add. I note that Trump said that $8 at the pump is a worthwhile sacrifice. So when was the last time Trump had to fill up his car at a pump? This decade? This century?

      1. .Tom

        Just speaking for myself, I’d say $8/gal for gasoline will have been a worthwhile sacrifice if it gets us to a significantly more anti-imperial domestic politics.

      2. JohnH

        Maybe Trump will start touting his $8/gallon gas as his secret, long planned solution to climate change…

        Personally I call it the Zionist tax on consumers.

        1. Dr. John Carpentet

          First Trump would have to acknowledge climate change. Then he’d have to care about it.

  3. .Tom

    I like Donald J. Gorbachev’s use of the word “the seminary” for, i guess, the MSM and government press offices.

  4. Samuel Conner

    > One can hope, but Trump’s only way out is to throw up his hands and depart.

    Without a formal peace agreement (which on present trends would seem to amount to US capitulation to Iranian terms), or at least a formal process leading to one (though, per Alexander Mercouris, perhaps US is “negotiations incapable”) will normal levels of traffic resume through the Strait?

    As US-demanded terms shrink to a core concern about nuclear enrichment, I hope that a solution can be found that saves DJT face while satisfying Iranian sovereignty.

    Would the Senate “consent” (2/3 majority vote) to a peace treaty before the mid-terms? The Ds might prefer the economic pain to continue for the sake of electoral advantage, and to torment DJT. Constituent welfare is, I think, a minor concern for them (as for the Rs). Perhaps US Senate is “consent incapable” with respect to peace with Iran.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Normal traffic through the Strait is unlikely to resume ever.

      1. Iran will not allow US and Israel traffic through ex a capitulation or a regime change in those countries. That is not a lot but not zero.

      2. Gulf state traffic not will go through until they come to terms with Iran. With Iraq, that is there. With Oman and Qatar, not hard. No idea re the Saudis, Kuwait, and Bahrain. UAE will hold out.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Maybe that is why the Iranians are selectively pounding the UAE. And it is not like that countries like Saudi Arabia will shed a tear for them. Speaking of the UAE. It is not only Israel and Pakistan that are sending men and equipment to that country but Egypt has sent Dassault Rafale fighter jets from the Egyptian Air Force along with at least 13 pilots. Now why would they want to do that?

      2. Jonathan Pitts

        Given your argument that a durable normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic is probably unlikely without some broader Gulf-Iran accommodation, I’m curious what your timeline would be for even a partial recovery in shipping traffic.

        Based on the dynamics you describe here — Gulf state hedging, Iran’s deterrence posture, insurance repricing, and the apparent difficulty the US is having re-establishing secure passage — how long do you think it would realistically take before traffic averages around ~60 ships per day?

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          I have absolutely no ability to make a forecast. And no one credibly can. There are way too many variables at play, so that (in decision theory terms) the outcomes are too bushy with no basis for assigning sound probabilities to any. If some forecaster is proven to have gotten it right, it would have been a lucky guess.

      3. n

        A few days ago Bahrain declared a state of emergency and publicly begged Iran not to attack it so it seems they are awfully desperate already!

    2. NotThePilot

      My take is that none of the “constitutional” branches of the US government have the will & psycho-social means to really change towards Iran or even credibly negotiate. And the Iranians know this.

      This war only ends when the more “functional” branches of the US gov (military, intel, bureaucracies, federal reserve, etc.) negotiate a separate peace somehow. The irony of all the talk about how Iran was ripe for “regime change” is that it wasn’t merely wrong, it was always projection.

      1. flora

        The US govt gives Billions of dollars to Isr. Isr recycles a lot of that money back into the AIPAC lobby and its campaign contributions to US pols. The US pols know what they’re doing: they’re keeping their campaign donation financial train running…. via Isr. It’s not exactly money laundering, so I guess that makes it OK?

        The US isn’t the only Western govt with this kind of arrangement with Isr.

        1. Henry Moon Pie

          I don’t know if it’s the money flow of the fear of AIPAC designating you as an enemy. They spend a lot of money on negative ads against people like Thomas Massie.

      2. Offtrail

        Iran really needs to be speaking to the global community. There needs to be hard commitment – legal changes – from important nations for Iran ever to be safe from sanctions. Nations have to commit not to roll over because Congress has passed a law. Otherwise Iran has no clear hope of ever being free from that threat.

      3. John k

        Same with Russia, which drove us policy/nato expansion. We don’t do much ‘know your enemy’ or ‘know yourself’. Imo not likely to change when we retreat to the americas. But drones are in, carriers not.

    3. ilsm

      Per Prof Marindi Iran demands end to abuse of the resistance in the Mid East.

      Lebanon and Gaza in any agreement!

    5. curlydan

      Right now, it seems like we are miles (galaxies?) away from a peace treaty. First, the U.S. is not agreement capable. Second, the negotiators we have in place (Kushner and Witless) have no idea how to even make a treaty. Third, Trump is a Press Release president and probably doesn’t have the patience to create a treaty or the will to submit to a treaty’s legal obligations. This is a guy who doesn’t even want to pay the contractors on his construction projects. Fourth, can you imagine 67 senators, especially xenophobic Republicans, agreeing to a treaty that removes sanctions and treats Iran with the respect that a regional power deserves? Fifth, the Israeli lobby. I don’t see how this war is resolved with anything but a press release with each side declaring victory then waiting and gearing up for the next time to attack each other (or WWIII is one other possibility).

      1. The Rev Kev

        I disagree with your characterization of Trump as ‘a Press Release president.’ In fact, he is a Social Media President – his own. Everything else that you wrote I agree with.The fact that Trump reputedly smells like unwashed a** is besides the point.

  5. The Rev Kev

    flounder
    verb
    UK /ˈflaʊn.dər/
    US /ˈflaʊn.dɚ/

    to experience great difficulties or be completely unable to decide what to do or say next:

    e.g.
    -‘He lost the next page of his speech and floundered around/about for a few seconds.’
    -‘Although his business was a success, his marriage was floundering’.
    -‘Donald J. Trump in 2026.’

    At this point Trump is just left with trying any stupid idea that people like Jack Keane or maybe even Laura Loomer suggests to him. He’s stuck and those Midterms just get closer and closer. He could call it quits like he did in Yemen but he can’t – his ego won’t let him.

    1. Samuel Conner

      DJT may not be able to “quit”, in the sense of “reducing the economic damage”, without the help of US Senate (ratification of a formal peace treaty ending the state of conflict in the region, which may be needed for shipping to return to normal levels). And, between the zionists and neocons who don’t want to accede to Iranian conditions, and the Ds who may want the political pain to continue, it may not be possible to find a 2/3 majority to ratify any treaty acceptable to Iran.

      Perhaps DJT could start formal peace negotiations to calm markets and, via Executive Order and scraping lint out of the corners of the budget, cover the shortfall in private insurance coverage for commercial shipping in the region. Perhaps something resembling logistical normality could be cobbled together in advance of a formal peace treaty.

    2. ChrisFromGA

      “Flounder” was also the nickname of a character in the movie “Animal House” with John Belushi:

      You effed up, you trusted us!

      That clip pretty much summarizes why you don’t negotiate with the non-negotiation-capable entity.

      1. The Joker

        “Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.”

        Dean Wormer to Flounder

        1. ChrisFromGA

          But it does seem to qualify you for a cabinet-level position in Taco’s administration.

        1. TonyJ

          As English TV chef Rick Stein used to say:

          “If it smells like fish, it’s not fresh.”

        2. Michael Fiorillo

          An old Newfoundlander trick for reviving less-than-the-freshest seafood: soak it in milk in the fridge for a couple of hours, then rinse before cooking. It will help sweeten it up.

      2. amfortas

        yes.both eyes on one side of head, so’s they can lay in the mud on the bottom and watch for prey.
        i caught a million of em in east matagorda bay…half the time with a cast net while going for baitfish.
        they like shallow water.
        pretty good stuffed with boudin and spinach, with butter and lemon slices on top, and “baked” in foil on a pit with the fire offset.
        flash em at the end with a dark rum or dry vermouth

        1. ilsm

          Thanks, I let my Youtube mix run a while. A lot of the anti Vietnam war songs came up.

        3. Alice X

          I’ve been all over the map as a musician. Though that piece was never on my turntable back in the day, I could have related. One that was on my deck even well before was this by Polish composer Krzysztof Penderecki, composed in 1960. It might be a jump for some mindsets as it is orchestral music from the 23rd century, (in the ’70s he revamped to 21st century stylings). I hold it to be one of the great works of the 20th century.

          Threnody for the Victims of Hiroshima

          I weep every time I listen to it.

          1. Alice X

            I cannot hear it but, for some years before a complete second hearing.

            Remembrance of a great crime.

      2. Henry Moon Pie

        Can’t forget Dylan: “Masters of War.”

        Let me ask you one question:
        Is your money that good?
        Will it buy you forgiveness?
        Do you think that it could?
        I think you will find,
        When your death takes its toll,
        All the money you made
        Will never buy back your soul.

        And I hope that you die,
        And your death will come soon.
        I’ll follow your casket,
        By the pale afternoon,
        And I’ll watch while you’re lowered
        Down to your deathbed.
        And I’ll stand over your grave
        ‘Til I’m sure that you’re dead.

        1. JonnyJames

          Probably since I’m from a rough working-class background, my fave is War Pigs by Black Sabbath. The sonic landscape and lyrics closely represents the horror, dread and destruction.

          These scum are not war hawks, they are War Pigs at the bloody trough – negcrophagist parasites, The band members were quite young, and also from working-class backgrounds, I think Ozzy was barely 20 years old at the time, and Geezer only a bit older – they was just kids

          “in the fields, the bodies burning
          as the War Machine keeps turning…

        2. Laughingsong

          This is not America . . . . Sha-La-La-La-La . . .

          Snowman melting from the inside
          Falcon spirals to the ground
          (This could be the biggest sky)
          So bloody red, tomorrow’s clouds

          A little piece of you
          The little peace in me
          Will die (This could be a miracle)
          For this is not America

          I so miss Bowie

    2. lyman alpha blob

      One for the metalheads – Motorhead with Brotherhood of Man*

      * I can’t speak for the video, and those may be some very bad biker gangs making an appearance, as opposed to your friendly neighborhood ones who rescue kittens from trees. But the lyrics are righteous, and Lemmy was as anti-war as it gets.

      1. JonnyJames

        Yes! Even for those who are not fans, Lemmy was the real deal, and his gravelly voice was unmistakable and unique. Very fitting for the subject matter.

      1. Michael Fiorillo

        “Machine Gun” by Jimi Hendrix… the live video of the New Years, 1970 concert is powerful stuff.

        And in a different genre: “Uhuru Sasa” by Gary Bartz (Harlem Bush Music version, with Andy Bey and Ron Carter): “Dam Nam, Ain’t Going to Vietnam)” by Leon Thomas: and the classic “Compared to What?” By Les McCann.

      2. Polar Socialist

        Can’t mention Metallica without also mentioning Megadeth’s “Peace sells… but who’s buying?”.

        When I did a lot of gym and cycling, I also listened a lot of Machine Head*, with plenty of anti-war and anti-violence songs like “Clenching the fist of dissent” or “A farewell to arms”.

        * one of the most under-appreciated trash metal bands.

  7. ilsm

    I listened to Professor Mirandi with LCol Davis last night.

    Mirandi points out that the US will incite worldwide recession if not depression to keep the genocide/economic tragedy going in Iran, Lebanon and Gaza. He also said Iran is inured to what the world will suffer by the past 47 years of blockades and sanctions.

    Mirandi puts it as Iran and US will drag the rest of the world into the same abyss US/Israel has imposed on the resistance for decades.

    It is US’ war for Israel’s brand of genocide.

    One of these incursions some serious casualties in US forces will be too hard to hide.

  8. Socal Rhino

    Chad Freeman this morning on the limited attacks in the gulf: We have a ceasefire with Israeli characteristics.

      1. Ex-PFC Chuck

        A number of days ago on a podcast with Nima he repeatedly referred to Baghdad Pete as the “Secretary of War Crimes.”

    2. JonnyJames

      Yes, that’s not only fitting, but funny at the same time. Freeman nailed it.

    1. flora

      An aside: now that I think about it, didn’t the US and western EU go to war in Ukr, the most corrupt country in Europe, in part to keep the grift there going? Who can forget B’s financial threat to Ukr if the Ukr govt investigated financial improprieties?

      1. Doggo

        Yeah you’re right. Dems are going to do nothing about Trump and his minions making a fortune on insider trading because… Dems are also guilty of it. Trump is just doing the same thing that everybody inside the DC beltway was doing already, he’s just doing more of it with more gusto.

  10. The Rev Kev

    Find it hard to believe that Trump authorized three guided-missile destroyers – the USS Truxtun, the USS Rafael Peralta and the USS Mason – to go into harm’s way and putting the lives of nearly 1,000 service people at risk. And for what exactly? To prove that the US Navy can go wherever it wants? To put pressure on the Iranians? To get the Neocons off his back? Perhaps the calculation was that the combined firepower of those three ships would be enough to fend off Iranian attacks but if they were reduced to depending on their CIWS systems, then it was a near run thing. Maybe next time they won’t be so lucky and Trump will have his justification for starting the war up again. Tough luck if you are a swabbie aboard one of those ships.

    1. Samuel Conner

      I wonder whether the Iranians may have “pulled punches” by calibrating their strikes to deplete the layered defense and force withdrawal without sinking the ships. It seems to me that if they had been determined to damage or destroy the ships, they could have done so by launching further or larger strikes.

      Sinking of a major US surface vessel may be an escalation they prefer to avoid; US is on back foot now — best to not motivate a major national mobilization.

    2. Ignacio

      IMO it was a test. Let us see if the Iranians have the nerve and capacity to attack our destroyers and blah, blah, blah. The US navy might have been still believing the Iranians wouldn’t dare. No longer i guess. It takes time to deal with the superiority complex.

        1. Wukchumni

          It isn’t as if the citizenry here is at all involved in any capacity towards the war aside from being gouged at the gas pumps-but not on consumer goods and food yet.

          Sure we can garner a few million peeps nationwide for a No Kings see me-dig me March, but good luck getting a mass protest against the ongoing debacle ala Vietnam War protests, the only skin in the game being dead Presidents~

          1. Ignacio

            Oh yeah! I see that and I don’t blame US citizenry, not even for having Trump elected. Mobilizations worldwide against this craziness would be more than necessary but you are right. Too many years of neoliberalism have killed our ability to organize mass protests.

            1. Wukchumni

              Even martyrs such as Renee Good and Alex Pretti have a limited shelf-life in the news cycle, forgotten except when they deign to inform us that the ICE man who shot Renee got a cushy new job, not a reprimand.

              KafkAmerica

              1. JonnyJames

                I think that dude also got something like a million dollars in a gofundme drive. They some sick f-ers out there. The US is a lawless rogue empire, not a constitutional republic.

                https://www.unilad.com/news/us-news/jonathan-ross-gofundme-ice-agent-millionaire-351477-20260116

                https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/billionaire-bill-william-ackman-donates-10k-to-ice-agent-jonathan-ross-gofundme-in-deadly-minneapolis-minnesota-shooting-immigration-renee-nicole-good-vance-trump-walz-frey

            2. Oh

              The (un)Patriot Act, mass surveillance, the goons from ICE, etc make protests harder. Need a new method (e.g. massive take down of govt sites and cooperation from local authorities to go against these killers,

          2. SlayThe Smaugs

            1. The mass mobilization against the Iraq war was ignored.
            2. The Vietnam anti-war movement is not a model because we don’t have a draft this time.
            3. The fascist totalitarian backlash against Gaza protesters is a deterrent.

    3. raspberry jam

      I can’t handle Fox News (my forced daily current events reading time goes to the Hebrew media just because I have to keep an eye on it for other reasons) but this was on the Times of Israel live blog yesterday and has a link to the source tweet:

      The US strikes on an Iranian port city and an island in the Strait of Hormuz came following anger from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia over Iranian attacks on the UAE, which US officials had downplayed, according to a Fox News reporter.

      and from the source tweet:

      A senior US official confirms to me the
      @wsj_com
      reporting from today that the Saudis and Kuwaitis abruptly halted permission for the US to use its bases and air space for Project Freedom, a decision that this official said has been reversed. Saudi officials reportedly were angry at the Pentagon downplaying the Iranian strikes on Monday.

      From here: US strikes on Iran came after anger from Gulf states over Tehran’s attacks — Fox News

  11. Tom Stone

    If Trump was not a stable genius, chosen by Divine Providence to Make America Great Again!!! I would be deeply concerned.
    And the Zionists should not worry about Trump throwing Israel under the bus, he has made his position clear and they should not worry about relying on his promises.
    After all, if you can’t trust Donald Trump, who CAN you trust?
    I almost forgot, JESUS IS COMING any day now and he will fix everything.
    There’s nothing but blue skies and good times ahead as $8 gas fuels America’s unstoppable growth!

    1. Samuel Conner

      There may be a large number of deeply disappointed Dispensationalists, as they find they they are not Raptured out of the tribulations coming on US.

      1. Wukchumni

        Its pretty creepy the whole Book of Revelations ‘thousand year reich’ like gig, where you hang out with the big cheese upstairs.

        When my mom passed away at 98 it was time for her to go, as much as we wanted her to make it to 100, which 1 out of 5,000 Americans accomplish. and 1 out of 1,000 hundred years olds make it to 110.

        Can you imagine being 347 years old, with 653 more years on your sentence, with no chance for an early release.

        That sounds more along the lines of hell.

        1. Henry Moon Pie

          When you put it that way, it’s almost like that whole “death” thing is part of the natural order of things, unlike Christianity that considers it an enemy and a punishment.

          The Millennium as a place with No Exit.

  12. Wukchumni

    $7.77 go-juice per gallon on average in these not so united states would be a game wrecker and sure-fire Jackpot. So many people have 15-20 miles per gallon SUV’s and RV’s that get a lot less. My Taco with 242k miles on the odometer struggles to get 15 mpg and a trip down to San Diego and back was $300 in gas, last week!

    You could buy used RV’s for about nothing, when the lines of ’79 reared their ugly snaking body as much as 1/2 mile. I was only 17-but remember pondering how much gas I was using inching along to the pumps?

    1. Henry Moon Pie

      “a trip down to San Diego and back was $300 in gas, last week”

      Well then, wouldn’t it be better to fly? Oh wait.

        1. ambrit

          If you know any Techbros, hitch a ride on one of their commercial airships.
          If the mineral in Mineral King is lithium, then there should be a thriving air transport service from there to the factories in SoCal.
          For in flight entertainment, try the Techbros Parachutes and Jacob’s Ladders game.

    2. ChrisFromGA

      Paid $4.19 in Andalusia, Alabama. Back in North Georgia, go-juice took the big jump-eroo while I was gone, now over $4.00 in my whereabouts.

      The Summer of Rage ™ is coming!

      1. Carolinian

        Everybody at $4 or more here. My car with its “Atkinson cycle” engine gets excellent freeway mileage in the forties but only 27 or so around town. Still that last is about what the Volkswagen that I once owned got on the highway. The current car is almost twice as heavy.

        What really matters is that a 5 mile distance gets you across my small town whereas for my friend in AZ that’s how far to almost anywhere. Phoenix is extremely spread out.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Atlanta is similar to Phoenix. To get anywhere other than the local Publix, you have to drive a long way. Next month, the World Cup is coming here. Forget about traffic. It will be a total mess. Hence my “Summer of Rage” prediction.

      2. n

        somehow the folks in indiana and ohio ended up with $4.99 gas. Although the local station is down to a measly $4.76 this morning.

        Normally in the rust belt we get everything 10 to 20 years after everyone else but looks like the $5 gas landed here first.

        1. Doggo

          Los Angeles area here. $6.10 a gallon for regular (not even supreme).

          I always go to the cheapest ARCO and pay in cash, which gets you a 10 cents per gallon discount over credit. Today was the very first time in my life where I handed them a $100 bill and I was not able to completely fill up my SUV. Today was the first time where I didn’t have to go back to the cashier for change.

  13. Carolinian

    Re the big picture

    But as Pape has also pointed out, great or ambitious powers often prefer to gamble on escalation

    But of course it is not the great and ambitious USA that is doing the gambling but only Trump who is making all these decisions. Or, if one prefers, the Israelis pulling the strings of their puppet are doing it. And that tiny country is not even close to being a great power although they certainly are ambitious.

    It’s the March of Folly that Barbara Tuchman talked about. Human nature doesn’t always have a plan.

  14. Ann

    Good morning, all. The British Columbia Wildfire Service knocked down three of the four fires in this area yesterday, including the one that was 20 km from our house with nothing but forest between there and here. The fourth is being held. It’s been 25-28 degrees C for the past week and not counting the sprinkle that came with the thunderstorms night before last, we have not had any rain in two months. Everything is powdery dry. We have the RV serviced and ready for the summer, but this is the earliest beginning to fire season that we have seen in our 22 years here. It’s going to be a long and hot summer.

    The year before we arrived here, 2003, there was a fire to the north that caused an evacuation of this small gathering of acreages and ranches. The RCMP blocked the road in from the south (the road out to the north was closed by fire. One of our neighbors was in town when the blockade was set up and was stopped from coming home. She turned around and parked back down the road and hiked through the forest and down by the river to get home to her cattle and sheep. She stayed there until the evacuation order was lifted.

    About the year 2012 we were sitting on the porch watching a thunderstorm when lightning hit close by. There was a bicyclist on the road going south and he stopped dead in his tracks. My husband went down to get him and his bicycle in the pickup and brought him back up to the house. He said, “I saw it hit the tree! The road is covered with debris! There’s fire everywhere!” so I put him in the car (no room for his bike) and drove north to the ferry across the river. My husband left the guy’s bike in the truck, added a shovel and a pulaski and went off to fight the fire with our neighbours (one woman in shorts and flip-flops).

    Turned out the guy was a surgeon who had recently moved to town and was out on his $5k bike wearing his colorful spandex to see the sights. I took him back into town on the highway on the other side of the river and got his phone number and address. Then I got some food and headed back up the road on our side of the river to the blockage. There was no way around, but someone had notified the indigenous band to the north of us who maintain a volunteer fire brigade and they were on scene. One rancher had opened all his gates and traffic was going around the road that was still blocked with the remains of Douglas Fir trees and power poles. I got home but we had no power for three days even though they cleared the road after one day and put out the fire while it was still small. We returned the cyclist’s bike a few days later.

    So yesterday’s events were familiar and will be the norm for this summer. Las summer we had nothing around here, but many fires in other parts of the province. I just hope that BC Wildfire Service can secure enough fuel to keep the vehicles and aircraft running and keep the fires from running into populated areas.

    British Columbia is the size of California, Oregon and Washington combined. Every year we have hundreds of fires burning all season, with some that over-winter and start up the next year. BC works with indigenous fire-guardians to do prescribed burns and keep the risk as low as possible, but it’s getting more difficult every year with bigger and hotter fires burning in record-breaking temperatures and droughts.

    Fire will be our end here, it’s inevitable. But we’ll fight until we lose. That’s just the way it is.

    I’ll keep posting as long as my health permits. I feel the need to keep up with events and I might as well put these things up here for other people to see. Onward and upward, friends.

    1. mrsyk

      Wow. Good to see your handle here this morning. Your post yesterday…
      It’s cold and wet here in the southern Greens of Vermont. I wish I could send you some.

    2. Henry Moon Pie

      “Fire will be our end here, it’s inevitable. But we’ll fight until we lose. That’s just the way it is.”

      We built an adobe house at the edge of a pine-oak forest in New Mexico back in the early 80s. While it turns out that things were warming and the pine bark beetle was moving north, at the time, fire was not much of a risk. There were burns, but the area was so sparsely settled that few were affected. Fast forward to four summers ago, long after we had sold the place and moved away, and a fire swept up that valley. They managed to keep it from burning the side where the house we built still is, but the view is now of a huge burn scar.

      Your saying quoted above reminded me of what I say about prostate cancer in old men. You play whack-a-mole until you can’t.

    3. alrhundi

      Stay safe and healthy over there Ann. I’m a British Columbia newbie and still getting used to the fires and summer smoke. We didn’t get much in Ontario until the bad fires a couple years back. I’ve done some recent research on wildfire trends in BC and Canada and I can’t believe how much more area is burning every year.

    6. Laughingsong

      I am in Oregon, and we have had a couple of small fires already. Presently there’s one out in Deschutes (gesundheit! 😁) County that is over 2000 acres, and was a prescribed burn that got away from them (a prescribed burn in May after the driest winter and spring in decades? Mkay 🙄)

      I use a great app called Watch Duty to track the US fires. They unfortunately don’t cover Canada but maybe there’s a similar one for it?

      1. Ann

        Thanks, folks. ChristFromGa, I remember that song! A goodie, for sure. We’ll try our best to keep this place going.

        Laughingsong, this is the BC Wildfire Service website:

        https://wildfiresituation.nrs.gov.bc.ca/map

        As you can see on the Dashboard, there are 22 fires burning in BC right now. 5 are out of control. 2 are being held, and 15 are under control. There are no evacuation alerts and no evacuation orders. The entire southern half of the province is under a burn ban because it’s so dry. Even so, idiots go out and start campfires in the bush and leave without putting them out. This puts so many folks in danger, it’s a crime. Literally, a crime.

    7. Wukchumni

      It’s inevitable that fire will take out the forest for the trees in the Sierra, but I soldier on in my neck of the woods, creating interlocking zones where nothing can burn aside from dead branches 25 feet up in an oak tree.

      If we had any brains we would have spent $72 Billion on firefighting instead of firefighting in Iran

  15. Ann

    North Korea ‘will fire nuclear weapon’ if Kim is killed

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/05/08/north-korean-nuclear-retaliation-if-kim-jong-un-killed/

    AI data center bans are rapidly multiplying across the US — 69 jurisdictions block new builds, with four moves noted as permanent

    https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/ai-data-center-bans-are-rapidly-multiplying-across-the-us-69-jurisdictions-block-new-builds-with-four-moves-noted-as-permanent

    “This Is Not Covid, Nor Influenza. It Spreads Very Differently”: WHO On Hantavirus Outbreak

    https://www.ndtv.com/health/this-is-not-covid-nor-influenza-it-spreads-very-differently-who-on-hantavirus-outbreak-11465085/amp/1

    1. ilsm

      DPRK nuclear capacity is immensely more dangerous to U.S. military establishment maintained since WW II, than Iranian nuclear weapons.

      So why is U.S. ignoring the threat to everything from South Korea to Guam.

      Aside from AIPAC, using Trump.

      1. Yalt

        Because the concern isn’t the threat, it’s the deterrent. Once you have one the game is over and they stop caring.

      2. Tom Stone

        If Trump wavers the Zionists could promise him naming rights on the Third Temple.

  16. Obryzum

    I would love to see the Iranians issue a press release or a tweet assuring the world that we are close to a final peace agreement, that the Americans have agreed to withdraw troops from the Middle East, that the Americans agree and acknowledge that the strait falls in Iran’s and Oman’s territorial waters, that the Americans have agreed to pay full reparations, that the Americans agree that Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear program, that the Americans will provide security guarantees to Iran and have invited the Russians and Chinese to do the same, that DJT has personally agreed to all these terms, and that the final version of the peace agreement has been prepared and we are only awaiting his final signature.

    But of course we will never see this because the Iranians tell the truth — and are not as cynical as I am.

    1. JonnyJames

      I would welcome that too, but as you say, the Iranians are far more truthful. The Iranians tell the truth, but the so-called left media outlets like Democracy Now take every opportunity to discredit Iran. I routinely hear things like “brutal regime”, “terrible human rights record”, they kill peaceful protesters, execute democracy-loving artists and all that. This sort of thing is exactly what prof. Marandi has been pointing out.

      In contrast they never call the GCC vassal-dictatorships, “regime” and of course the KSA has one of the worst human rights records in the world. Decapitation in public with a sword for non-violent offences is not exactly advancing human rights, but few will mention that in context.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Saudi_Arabia

        1. JonnyJames

          Yes and the US has the largest number of incarcerated, followed by China with over double the population. Land of private prisons, pawn shops and military bases.

      2. Doggo

        I agree with you, but I’d make one small correction and say there is no left media or right media, there is only Evil Empire govt-controlled media.

        The so-called left media lies just as much as the rightwing media. Hard to believe, I know, but look at how many brainwashed lefties still think Russia is bad because Putin paid for hookers to pee on Trump and that’s why Trump is a Russian agent.

        I mean, they could’ve simply told the truth and that would’ve completely discredited Trump without having to lie. They could’ve said Trump is owned by Israel and is an Israeli asset, and that Mossad really does have pictures and video of Trump getting it on with Epstein’s girls. But of course they can’t say that since the Dems are also owned by Israel and no one in the US govt is allowed to criticize Israel, so they had to invent thiis Russia thing.

        1. JonnyJames

          I agree, that’s why I wrote “so-called” in front of “left”. There is only one MiniTrue mass media and there is only one Party, representing oligarchy, posing as a so-called democracy

  17. Cocomaan

    Saw a 2000 or 3000 series pickup for sale on the side of the road today. Didnt get the make because of sun glare, but interesting timing.

  18. Ann

    Trump Explodes At Female Reporter After She Asks An Uncomfortable Question

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-rachel-scott-abc-news-rant_n_69fd8282e4b0cb033e5107bd

    MAGA Rep Accused of Brutally Beating GOP Senator’s Daughter

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/maga-rep-max-miller-accused-of-brutally-beating-maga-senator-bernie-morenos-daughter-emily/

    Trump Tariffs Ruled Illegal—Again—as Data Shows Promised Manufacturing Boom Is Nonexistent

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-tariffs-ruled-illegal

    Leaked CIA Analysis Shows Trump and Hegseth ‘Lied Through Their Teeth’ About Iran War, Says Murphy

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/cia-iran

    US intel community agreed before war ‘Iran wasn’t developing a nuclear weapon’: ex-counterterrorism chief

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-intel-community-agreed-before-war-iran-wasnt-developing-nuclear-weapon-ex-counterterrorism-chief

    China confirms it helped Pakistan’s air force during last year’s war with India

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3352863/china-confirms-it-helped-pakistans-air-force-during-last-years-war-india

  19. Lefty Godot

    “The US position rests on a number of false assumptions. First, Iran is not the leading sponsor of terrorism…” It’s not a false assumption, it’s a willfully mendacious propaganda claim, where terrorism is redefined as “not doing what the Empire wants and fighting back when violently attacked instead of rolling over and playing dead”. The Saudis and Israel share the laurels for “leading sponsor of terrorism” from at least 9/11, with the CIA also heavily involved. ISIS had nothing to do with Iran, and recall that “Al Qaeda in Syria is on our side” per Jake Sullivan.

  20. Anthony Martin

     
    Ttump is opening up a new front between with class warfare in the US. Will Iran exploit it? Who
    benefits from this dirty little war?

    Social/Economic Classes of the US
    (a)  .01%                 31% 0f wealth                31% of Wealth         3,300,000   Oligarchs
           (b) 90%-99% –         39% of wealth                    70% of wealth           29,700,000       Wealthy Upper
    Class
           (c) 80%-90%           15% of wealth                    85%  of wealth          33,000,000       Bourgeois ‘Middle
    Class
           (d) 50% -80%          12% of wealth                    97%  of wealth           99,000,000      Aspiring  Middle
    Class
           (e) 40%-50%              2%of wealth                    99% of wealth           33,000,000       Working Class   
           (f) 0-40%                    1% of wealth                  100% of wealth         132,000,000       & Peon Class
                                                                                                                      330,000,000

  21. ChrisFromGA

    Remember when you were young?
    You shone like the sun
    Whine on, you crazy Taco

    Now there’s a look in your eyes
    Like bad polls in the sky
    Whine on, you crazy Taco

    You were caught in the crossfire
    Of MAGA and neo-cons
    Blown on the steal breeze
    Come on, you target for faraway laughter
    Come on, you stranger
    You rage-posting legend, you grifter, and whine

    You reached for the keyboard too soon
    You cried like a loon

    Whine on, you crazy Taco

    Threatened by Epstein at night
    And exposed in the light

    Whine on, you crazy Taco!

    Well, you wore out your welcome, with MAGA derision,
    Blown on the steal breeze
    Come on, you raver, you seer of visions
    Come on, you painter
    You piper, you prisoner, and whine

    “Shine on you, Crazy Diamond” by Pink Floyd (Parts I – IX)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFnd1_zfrJc

  22. Spikeyboy

    Elina Xenophontos makes some importnt points against Richard Medbury’s theory of a US energy domination play. She begins with

    In my opinion, although I deeply respect Richard, the flaws in his theory lay in his inapprehension of capitalist economics, which in turn causes him to overestimate the United States position. He also falls in the trap of oversimplification and generalisations of complex processes, that further weaken his theory.

    On oil, she notes

    He ignores the fact that 80% of US oil exports and production are in light sweet crude, which fails to meet the needs of the global market that heavily relies on medium – heavy crude (75%). He also fails to mention how it is for this reason that the US itself is a major importer of medium – heavy crude, given as 70% of its own refineries are specifically designed to process heavier crudes.

    On LNG:

    The United States LNG terminals are already running at maximum capacity.

    To increase export capacity requires new terminals to be built and this takes a minimum of 7 years. Additionally more terminals would have to be built by countries on the receiving end of the LNG — which also take years to construct. Beyond the physical limitations of building said terminals, there are also legal obstacles to the establishments of new LNG ports and terminals due to environmental concerns. Therefore this idea that the US will become a major supply of LNG for the world is materially impossible for the next decade — at the very least.

    The GCC states are not competitors. Rather they are integral to the US financial capitalist economy as vital investors. Obstructing their revenues and causing their economies to contract by an estimated 14%, as per Goldman Sachs, will limit their ability to recycle said revenue into US capital assets — which is a vital lifeline to the US economy — especially in the tech industry.

    And on China

    China produces an average of 500 GW of new energy per year, which is more than half of the entire US electricity grid,. This is in addition to discovering 225 large and medium-sized crude oil and natural gas fields; including 13 oil fields with reserves exceeding 100 million tons and 26 gas fields with reserves exceeding 100 billion cubic meters — China shall become an energy power of it own.

    https://substack.com/@elinaxenophontos/note/c-254752625?r=b9n9c

    1. n

      Just because it sounds like a terrible plan doesnt mean our fearless leaders dont think its a great idea!

  23. Ann

    Indonesia, Malaysia politicians considering imposing toll on Strait of Malacca

    https://www.9news.com.au/world/strait-of-malacca-toll-indonesia-malaysia-strait-of-hormuz-singapore-world-news/62ef665e-5fa0-42e9-8b7a-c496e55dcee9

    ….at the request of the US, I’m sure…

    Alarmed ASEAN leaders adopt crisis plan to mitigate backlash from Middle East war

    https://apnews.com/article/asean-philippines-middle-east-war-50aa18310ef0f2476161880469d645bb

    Secret document reveals Russia’s plans to aid Iran

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/05/07/secret-document-reveals-russias-plans-to-aid-iran

    115 people sickened in norovirus outbreak on cruise ship: CDC

    https://abcnews.com/amp/International/115-people-sickened-norovirus-outbreak-cruise-ship-cdc/story

    The companies making billions from the Iran war

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8pyyz5e0ro

    Trump administration claiming a ‘win’ against Iran

    https://theconversation.com/trump-administration-claiming-a-win-against-iran-heres-a-report-card-282294

    Saudis feared Trump’s Project Freedom would spur Iran to attack, officials say

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/saudis-feared-trumps-project-freedom-spur-iran-attack-officials-say-rcna344124

    Republicans Don’t Need to Win Elections Anymore. They Just Need Their Judges. | The Virginia Supreme Court nullifies three million votes, boosting Trump’s effort to rig the midterms.

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/05/republicans-dont-need-to-win-elections-anymore-they-just-need-their-judges/

    Judge rules DOGE used ChatGPT in a way that was both dumb and illegal / The ruling restores federal grants that were shut down for ‘DEI’ prejudice.

    https://www.theverge.com/policy/927071/doge-chatgpt-grants-canceled

    MAGA Congressman Accused of Beating and Burning His Ex-Wife

    https://newrepublic.com/post/210178/maga-congressman-miller-accused-beat-ex-wife

    Ted Cruz Admits Trump Accounts Are Designed to Privatize Social Security Over Time

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/ted-cruz-privatize-social-security

  24. raspberry jam

    a glimmer of hope?

    Poll: 42% of Likud voters considering or have decided to back different party in fall

    The numbers for the Kahanist parties are a reason for hope, this confirms they will not be leading the next government and are unlikely to be kingmakers again any time soon:

    The poll finds that 10% of previous Likud voters will vote for former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s center-right Together party; 6% will vote for former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party; 4% will vote for Avigdor Liberman’s secular right-wing Yisrael Beytenu party; 3% will vote for far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party; 2% will vote for Yoaz Hendel’s right-wing Reservists party; 1% will vote for Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party; and 1% will vote for Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism party.

    The reasons are interesting too, especially the significant bloc of Likud voters who are refusing to vote for Netanyahu again because of the orthodox military exemptions (remember Netanyahu had to get re-elected and re-form a government multiple times before the current governing coalition held) but a little less hopeful that the Israeli bloodthirst will abate under a Bennett presidency even if he withdraws from the majority of the fronts:

    Among Likud voters who are either considering or have decided not to vote for Netanyahu’s party once again, 37% said it’s because of the failure to prevent Hamas’s October 7 attack; 23% said it’s because of the legislation that the government is trying to pass granting blanket exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students; 14% said because of Netanyahu’s personal conduct; 13% said it’s because of divisions in Israeli society; and 13% said they’re unsure.

    1. raspberry jam

      forgot the funny part:

      Asked whether Netanyahu’s far-right, firebrand son Yair should be on Likud’s list for elections, 67% of Likud voters said no and 17% said yes.

        1. raspberry jam

          depends if he’s a citizen of the US or not as the PM is required to be a member of the Knesset. See section 16A

          it’s more important because it means there isn’t going to be a “Netanyahu dynasty” and there’s no way for Netanyahu pere to continue to hold power through his son.

          1. The Rev Kev

            Israel would be better off with the Duck Dynasty than a Netanyahu Dynasty in charge.

    1. The Rev Kev

      A key to success. Find a parade forming up, jump in front of it and pretend that you are leading it. Hopefully Putin will reciprocate by allowing America’s semiquincentennial ceremonies to go ahead this July.

  26. Ann

    Iran accuses US of ‘reckless military adventure’

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c99lpn9ze8ro?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

    Hamas operatives are being trained in Turkey to fight against Israel

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895545

    First case of hantavirus diagnosed in Israel after patient’s visit to Eastern Europe
    However, unlike the outbreak of the South American Andes strain currently drawing attention aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, the Israeli was infected with a European strain of the virus.

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-895478

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