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Iran War: Momentary Quiet as Iran Withholds Answer on US Proposal; Iran Asserts Control Over Persian Gulf Cables; Debate Over US Destruction of Iran Tankers, Iran Destroyer Attacks

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Today’s Iran war post is for once actually a bit thin due to the appearance of quiet. That does not relieve the considerable pressures still growing on the economic front and nor remedy the US’ and Israel’s already-limited ability to keep hitting Iran hard. Even if they could, keep in mind that escalation expert Robert Pape and others have pointed out that punishment campaigns do not work, and the US clearly lacks the means to contest Iran’s source of advantage, control over the Strait of Hormuz.

If there are any late-breaking developments, I will update this post between 7:00 AM EDT and 8:00 AM EDT and flag that in the headline.

Iran is still silent on the US demands proposal. I have not seen anything that supersedes this report:

If I were Iran, my reply would be to go back to its former position, no response to the substance until the blockade is lifted.

Oddly, neither the Western press nor officials have yet deigned to take notice of Iran’s inclusion of cables under the Persian Gulf as subject to its control. Will Iran tax them in return for leaving them unharmed?

Reader Ann identified a report at Pakistan Observer, Iran moves to place Internet Cables in Hormuz under State Control:

Iranian authorities have reportedly taken major and highly sensitive step involving Hormuz, moving to place undersea internet infrastructure and key maritime traffic under tighter state control.

The state regime started considering undersea internet cables passing through Strait of Hormuz as strategic national asset. These cables, which carry vast volumes of global internet traffic and critical financial data, could soon come under Iranian regulatory authority.

Reports suggest that a newly created authority in the Strait of Hormuz will be responsible for overseeing and managing international submarine communication cables in the region. Under this proposed framework, all such cables would fall under Iranian laws and oversight.

Tehran is reportedly working to grant domestic companies greater technical control over the maintenance and management of these undersea cable systems, further strengthening its influence over digital infrastructure in the region….

This is a fresh Google search on “Iran cables”. Keep in mind that Google very much favors mainstream outlets in its results. The ones shown are the only ones since Iran made its announcement:

Some additional comments:

Bloomberg’s current lead story focuses on the deteriorating oil situation:

From its text:

  • The world has burned through oil inventories at a record speed due to the Iran war, eating into the buffer that protects against supply shocks.
  • The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean the risk of extreme price spikes and shortages is getting closer, leaving governments and industries with fewer options to cushion the impact.
  • Global visible oil stocks are already close to their lowest since 2018, with some signs that the drawdown may have slowed slightly in recent days, but the market remains vulnerable to future disruptions.

One has to marvel at the tacit assumption in this summary that oil supplies are a manageable problem ex getting something approaching old normal energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In a talk we included in yesterday’s post, commodities expert Jeff Currie said that two years after the Ansar Allah attacks on Red Sea shipping, traffic was only at 75% of prior levels. Currie made clear even if the war were to end soon, it would be a very long time before many shippers were confident that transit through the Strait of Hormuz was safe. Currie’s assessment is consistent with what ship owners and industry expert said to Lloyd’s List and Bloomberg soon after Iran asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz.

From the body of the article:

Morgan Stanley estimates global oil stockpiles dropped by about 4.8 million barrels a day between March 1 and April 25 — far exceeding the previous peak for a quarterly drawdown in data compiled by the International Energy Agency. Crude accounts for almost 60% of the decline, and refined fuels the rest.

Crucially, the system also requires a minimum level of oil, which means that the “operational minimum” is reached long before the inventories actually hit zero, said Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of global commodities research…..

JPMorgan’s Kaneva warns that inventories in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development could reach “operational stress levels” early next month, if the strait doesn’t reopen, and then “operational minimum” floors by September. That’s the point when the world hits the bare minimum amounts of oil needed for pipelines, storage tanks and export terminals to function properly.

Economist and former adviser to the UAE Steve Hanke, in a talk with Lena Petrova, stresses that energy markets are set to hit a cliff as various buffers are depleted, and a big price spike by the end of July if not sooner.

This Aljazeera update gives prominent play to levitating food and energy costs:

If you listen closely, the segment also says, in effect, that the US is hopeful Iran will reply to its proposal. The formulation suggests that Aljazeera is not seeing an Iranian response as a given.

Forbes focuses on the looming jet fuel crunch, in Jet Fuel Shortage In ‘Crisis Mode’—More Flight Cuts And Higher Airfares:

• “It’s not going to be a short-term issue, because it can’t be easily solved,” Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, the energy data and analytics platform, told Forbes, having likened the jet fuel shortage to a “slow-motion car crash.”

* “We’re going to be in crisis mode,” John Gradek, who teaches aviation risk management at McGill University, told Forbes, noting “the industry has never seen this before, where the actual supply of the product needed to support aviation, that pipeline, is drying up.”

* Europe’s jet fuel inventories are expected to dip below the International Energy Agency’s critical 23-day shortage threshold sometime in June, according to a recent Goldman Sachs research note to investors.

Even local US newscasts are reporting on the damage to local commerce. For those outside the US, the Central Valley is the big growing area in California:

This segment gives an update on the latest Strait of Hormuz to-ing and fro-ing. Iran barks loudly after the latest dust-ups Trump makes the empty threat of restarting Project Freedumb even thought it has widely been reported that the Saudis and Kuwaits put their feet down, denying the US use of airspace and bases (this restriction was apparently limited to this operation; there are Twitter reports that the US is again using these resources).

Note that this segment, toward the end, discusses the UK’s chikenshit capitulation to Trump demands for help with the Strait of Hormuz. It will send the destroyer HMS Dragon to hang out nearby, in case a multinational operation miraculously comes together.

Stasislav Krapivnik talks with Danny Haiphong mainly about the Iran war but also the Victory Day commemoration:

Stas stresses that the US blockade is hopeless, echoing the point Larry Johnson and others have made, that there are far too few ships committed to the task. But the US hitting enough carriers may still succeed in keeping ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, although Iranian carriers seem most willing to take their chances.

However, there is still a great deal of debate in the Twitterverse over the significance of the recent exchange of fires in the Gulf and destruction of Iranian tankers. Note it took place in area that Iran had defined as within its zone of control:

The US had made new strikes:

Marins and others argue that the US is trying to provoke Iran into sinking a destroyer. Professor Marandi (on Nima) said in the last 24 hours that the Iran shots at the US ships were intended to scare them off.

But what does Iran do now? Is the IRCG debating whether to retaliate directly or indirectly, say by leaning on Ansar Allah to shut down Bab el-Mandib transits? Tell Trump no talks if this crap continues? Is it studying if and how it can simply disable a destroyer by hitting its rudder and/or propellers? The lack of a muscular response is not a great look but the Iranians are patient and skilled at playing multi-layered games.

Keep in mind Iran has even more ways to get oil out via water:

Some still contend the one of US destroyer that fought off Iran was set on fire, at least on its deck:

The way to infer whether there was real damage, as opposed to no or superficial harm, is if a destroyer decamps to Diego Garcia. Admittedly, it could still be for weapons restocking. But the absence of any destroyer going there would confirm CENTCOM’s positon that Iran did no real damage.

The US incursion and attacks may have been intended to deter vessel transit, particularly ones complying with the new Iran transit system. That may not have worked:

Other information tidbits. Israel barbarity continues:

Iranians abroad come home to help:

MTG takes up a question our readers have sometimes asked:

Scott Horton gives a master class in Piers Morgan takedowns:

In addition: I do not want to seem as if I have gone soft in the head. The latest Trump escalation with China, of sanctioning Chinese satellite companies alleged to have supplied Middle East data to Iran, would seem to kill a summit with Xi. This is just too provocative for China to swallow without loss of face.

If a meeting does still happen, it may be for Xi assist Trump in providing cover for Trump’s retreat from Iran conflict. I see this as very low odds but not impossible.

Off topic but I still thought made for a good final note:

All for now! See you tomorrow!

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110 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    ‘Today’s Iran war post is for once actually a bit thin due to the appearance of quiet.’

    “It’s Quiet…Too Quiet”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIZX2ebgtCQ (3:40 mins)

    The way that Trump keeps on sending naval excursions in, hitting Iranian tankers, bombing sites in Iran, etc., does make me wonder. Is this part of a campaign to normalize such things with the Iranians so that it becomes a sort of permanent ‘mowing of the grass?’ I can’t see the Iranians putting up with that for long so they will make some sort of measured responses – while the world’s economy comes off the track. Time is on their side as they have the 3 Ms on their side – munitions, markets, and midterms. Sophisticated munitions are in short supply, the markets are going sideways and the midterms are getting closer and closer.

    1. nyleta

      Iran said today that further attacks on their tankers and infrastructure would get instant retaliation on foreign bases and proxies in the region.

      Talking to a logistics person in one of Australia’s two large retailers today, starting Monday they have been told to stuff forward their supply channels to get room in the 3 week warehouses.

        1. Daveb

          I think it means moving supplies onto the floors/shelves to allow stockpiling in the warehouses (designed to hold 3 weeks of routine volumes).
          I’m trying to pickup/buy things now (bring my purchases forward) as I suspect when the economy seizes from lack of oil its going to be hard to get lots of things.

    2. Ignacio

      Yeah no news is good news but as you write the attacks on Iranian tankers is a thing to note, not to forget. Being these civil vessels, these attacks only help to sink even more the reputation of the US-Pirates of the Caribbean-Navy. These are coward actions (attacking undefended civil ships) and do not really help to achieve any strategic objective because those attacks will not push Iran an inch to open the Strait of Hormuz. Double failure of an administration unable to find an exit and only digging deeper mistake after mistake. A show of impotence. Viagra needed?

      1. skippy

        This admin is driven by bad history, rank ideology, and a huge case of path dependency.

    3. Samuel Conner

      Inspired your list of “three bad things”, I’ll call attention to the story in the 21st chapter of the Old Testament book 1 Chronicles, in which David, king of Israel, as punishment for the transgression of taking a census of the nation’s military strength, was given the choice between three calamities: famine, military setback, or epidemic.

      At least David was forced to pick only one; Donald seems likely to face all three.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Perhaps we can add a fourth calamity, mental decline.

        Munitions, midterms, markets, and mental decline – the four horsemen of the Donald apocalypse.

    4. ilsm

      Anchors aweigh!

      Winning strategy: US Navy sorties destroyers covered by USAF and Apaches, they take a few pot shots at anchored tankers, draw fire and skedaddle!

      Not being sunk is winning!

      1. Oregon Lawhobbit

        Not being sunk is winning!

        And since Iran’s ship of state is not being sunk… ;-)

        Now in regard to the American pirate ships … I mean, “commerce raiders”* … they are sortakinda winning. At the moment. The musing above that this is “a new normal” is not unreasonable. Though the lack of product coming out of the Strait is eventually going to have its say in the matter.

        *we can bold and italicize and link and quote. why can’t we strikethrough? or is that a code I don’t know?

          1. Oregon Lawhobbit

            D’OH! Severe facepalm and all that…

            It’s one I forgot should have thought of.

            Thanks, Martin!

            But now I want a button, because I’m lazy greedy like that… ;-)

    5. esop

      Original 3Ms were Money, Message, and Momentum. Mainstream media’s why of crowding out.

  2. skippy

    Data cables … think the issues with petroleum are bad …. lmmao …

    Financial H Nuke ….

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      He paints with extremely bright colors and has said some affirmatively incorrect things about insurance. So take him with some salt.

      1. Hickory

        The text also shows many signs of being AI-generated. Unclear whether it’s just the writing style and based on his research, or how much research the AI also did. But I’ve found some errors in his writings that I only find more off-putting when written in that highly-dramatic, highly-confident AI style.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          I am not keen at all about accusations re AI text. It is ad hom and a violation of site Policies.

          Your reading is also bogus.

          I hate to pull rank, but I am not only a professional writer and editor, but even in college, did close and exacting readings of text, so I am VERY experienced in stylistic analysis.

          His writing is strident, and full idiosyncrasies. It is a country mile away from AI text, which is corproate-y (as in stylistically bland).

          I will rip out or overwrtite ANY accusations against established authors of their text being AI generated without real evidence as opposed to mere amateur belief. I already banned one reader over this issue, so I am dead serious

          1. Hickory

            That’s fair, and in the future I will offer evidence.

            I just went back to his past essays I’ve read to look for the evidence of repeated strange logical or factual inaccuracies in highly dramatic text I noticed in the past few months and match it with various professional writers’ descriptions of common AI patterns to make my case. However, Perera now has almost all his posts behind a paywall (not all his ‘activity’ but his posts), whereas a few months ago I’m positive I was reading full posts of his without subscribing, so I cannot find examples from his writings now.

            1. Yves Smith Post author

              This is grounds-shifting, which is a bad faith form of argumentation and a violation of our written site Policies

              You first accused him of his text being AI generated. I debunked that as did another commenter. Writing tics are produced by humans, not AI.

              Now you make a different charge, which is independent of your earlier one, that he used AI for investigation and did not verify what he got back and instead regurgitated bad information. Factual inaccuracies do not prove AI. I make mistakes, FFS. And overhasty drafting can lead to mangled explanations.

        2. Bugs

          I’ve been involuntarily forced to use AI chatbots as part of my job and there’s no way anyone can get a chatbot to put out a text like this, with the staccato rhythm and repetition of phrase structure and affect. Especially when the subject is an analysis and synthesis of recent geopolitical events and economics. The “prompt” itself would be longer than the output.

        3. hazelbee

          I’d agree there are signs in there of AI use, rather than entire AI generation.

          impossible to say whether from research leading up to it or during the writing, or drafting . or whether he is just targeting engagement and that leads to a particular style. Or there is research showing that people’s own writing gets influenced by AI style if you work with AI long enough.

          I’d be astonished if he is not using AI at least in part. Looking on linkedin and he writes on AI, and blockchain as well as society matters. He will be using it somewhere to be informed enough to write about it.

          This impression is not helped by the very first sentence being the most common AI trope. i.e. “its not X, its Y” . in this case “not a trade summit, a temporal summit”. aka negative parallelism.

          this is a good site with common AI writing tropes: tropes.fyi
          you can even get a “skill” to get AI to sound less like AI – it encapsulates the learning in that tropes site.

  4. Victor Sciamarelli

    I think it’s worth recalling that prior to Feb 28 Trump was, and remains, personally invested in the Gulf states, especially the UAE and SA, to what amounts to $billions. Thus, I think it’s fair to question whether Trump’s recent behavior, like threatening to obliterate Iran, is motivated by his desire to protect his fortune.
    Trump is addicted to money and, for him, everything is about business. Thus, can anyone really trust his judgement as commander in chief if his personal interests conflict with the nation’s interest?
    There are numerous sources on Trump’s GCC business. From Fortune in 2025, “The United Arab Emirates…has become a hub for the Trump Organization’s international expansion. With first sons Don Jr. and Eric serving as emissaries, the president and his family have entered into at least nine agreements with ties to the gulf nation—some involving government entities in the country, many stemming from business relationships developed there.”
    As president, Trump remains CEO of the Trump organization as he placed his assets in a family-run trust rather than, like other presidents, an independent blind trust. World Liberty Financial, eg., a cryptocurrency firm founded by sons of Steve Witkoff, Alex and Zach, together with Jared Kushner two months before the 2024 election, boomed once Trump was elected.
    From the NYT, “Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has contributed $2 billion to an investment fund run by Jared Kushner” “In September, Mr. Kushner’s firm and the Saudi sovereign fund teamed up with another investor in an agreement to take the video game publisher Electronic Arts private. That deal is valued at around $55 billion. If completed, it would be the largest leveraged buyout ever.” https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/18/world/middleeast/trump-family-business-saudi-arabia.html
    From El Pais English, “The Persian Gulf, a booming business for the Trump family”
    From CNN 2/2/26, “An investment firm tied to the United Arab Emirates acquired nearly half of the Trump family’s cryptocurrency company, a $500 million stake, four days before President Donald Trump’s second inauguration…”
    There are damning questions as well. According to CAP 5/8/2026, “the administration rescinded Biden-era AI export rules…” “This reversal has authorized the sale of millions of AI chips to the UAE—including the NVIDIA H200 and AMD Instinct MI325X, which were previously restricted—and created a direct pathway for the Emiratis to import NVIDIA’s even more powerful, highly advanced Blackwell-class AI chips.” “Their imposition [the AI restrictions] was originally based in part on documented ties between UAE state-linked entities and the Chinese military industry.” https://www.americanprogress.org/article/how-trumps-500-million-uae-crypto-deal-trades-u-s-national-security-for-family-profit/

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Not just the Trump family, but Witkoff has personal wealth at stake. Supposedly, the Qataris bailed him out by buying a hotel he owned to save him from defaulting on a debt payment.

      These clowns are walking conflicts of interest. They are putting their personal financial interests above those of the US. This is why we should never allow private individuals the sort of access and power that these two grifters (Kush and Witless) have. A line was crossed here that should never have been crossed.

  5. DJG, Reality Czar

    If today is indeed “quiet,” and it is drizzly this morning here in drizzly Piemonte, I’m going to put out a couple of ideas.

    Idea 1: Civilian control of the military.

    –“Stas [Krapivnik] stresses that the US blockade is hopeless, echoing the point Larry Johnson and others have made, that there are far too few ships committed to the task.” In almost every one of the daily reports, Yves Smith has had to comment on the shortcomings of provisions — as well as an incapacity of the US of A to muster enough troops and weapons.
    –“Civilian control of the military” is a characteristic of the modern state. In contrast, one of the reasons for the success of the wily Savoy family was a fusion of the Savoys, the nobility, and the military. This fusion no longer exists, fortunately, because countries like the U S of A (and Italy) have constitutions that subordinate the military to the civilian branches of government.
    –But: The civilian branch of the U.S. government, for a number of years, hasn’t seemed in control of the military. We have Biden and his various adventures. We see Trump and the mess in Iran and the genocide in Gaza. It isn’t only that Biden, Blinken, Hegseth, Trump, and various others were compromised and unschooled in the use of the military. Something else is going wrong, because the civilian branch doesn’t seem capable of managing the military.
    –I’d bring forward the whole problem of U.S. contractors. The military function has been privatized. Consequently, it is no longer efficient. The military function has to be exclusively military, down to peeling potatoes for the commissary. No Taco Bells in Baghdad. I’m thinking about how the quality of education at West Point was once very high, and I recall when the Army Corps of Engineers was important. Privatization of the military has done for the military what privatization of health care in the US of A has done for the general health of USanians.
    –And:
    The egregiously stupefied Madeleine Albright didn’t understand that the purpose of a fine military is not to use the military, not to waste the military, and not to sacrifice soldiers to the fantasies of the bourgeoisie. The U S of A has now devolved into all-privatized, all-the-time, pointless military exercises.

    Idea 2: Trump’s health.

    –Yves Smith has pointed out physical and mental decline.
    –Recently, Fatto Quotidiano published a photo of Trump at his desk in D.C. to accompany an article on the Donald and Pete’s Excellent Iran Misadventure. Trump seems to be reduced to a pasty-faced pile of flesh with malevolent eyes. Déjà vu: Just like Biden before the donor-induced defenestration.
    –Trump’s height is a mystery, hovering around 6 ft 2 in.
    –His weight as supposedly a mystery, but I’d peg him at 300 pounds.
    –The diaper smell is reminiscent of Biden’s diaper mishap.
    –Cultural issue: Sure, Biden and Trump are “figureheads,” in the sense of being leaders of coalitions of economic interest groups. But that still doesn’t explain how USAnians elected two presidents in a row who are non compos mentis and pooping their pantaloons.

    Please advise.

    1. Carolinian

      TINA. Birds of prey only have two wings so no anatomical chance for a third party to arise.

      Or you might say it’s all about Trump himself since Biden’s only excuse for getting the nomination in 2000 was that he alone could supposedly beat Trump.

      And Trump only became president because his opponent was Hillary. We may have elite overproduction but apparently the elite factory isn’t producing any that know what they are doing–at least none that have any chance of becoming president.

      1. Tom Doak

        And Trump only became President the second time because his opponent was Kamala.

        Having zero appealing Presidential candidates is a feature, not a bug.

        1. tet vet

          I’ve often wondered if Trump would have ever been elected had he been opposed by any one of the first 500 male names in any large city phone book.

      2. Samuel Conner

        Perhaps the elites do know what they are doing — they are manipulating the financial system to their advantage. The problem is that the financial system is no longer (borrowing language from Keynes) merely froth on the surface of a real economy (that real economy being managed by a subset of the elites who care [doubtless for mostly self-serving reasons] about material realities [engineers, for example the kind that used to rise to the top at Boeing]). The financial system dominates the economy and will go down as the material economy sickens.

        Parasites can thrive on a host that is not too sick, but will die when the host expires.

        1. dave -- just dave

          Lewis Carroll’s 1889 novel Sylvie and Bruno earned its obscurity, but there is a gem in it – “The Mad Gardener’s Song”. In one verse Carroll foresaw the metastasis of the financial sector from its proper role, as a facilitator of business activity, to its current position in which it is eating everyone’s lunch:

          He thought he saw a Banker’s Clerk
          Descending from the bus:
          He looked again, and found it was
          A Hippopotamus:
          ‘If this should stay to dine,’ he said,
          ‘There won’t be much for us!’

          Allegorically speaking, we can also consider the Hippopotamus to stand for the ecological overshoot involved in what Nate Hagens calls the Superorganism, the hungry hungry modern technoindustrial system.

      3. ThirtyOne

        “A bird has a left wing and a right wing, but they’re just for flapping. The bird brain is in the middle.”

        Don Joyce

    2. Christopher Mann

      The US has always had an anti-government culture. That combined with a mania for “freedom” (whatever that is) and the highest value being to amass “stuff” means there is a very weak sense of a civic state. The purpose of life is the Pursuit of Happiness and everything else is just an impediment. Even military service is a just a means to an end.

      The US worked as long as most people had the opportunity to better their position. It started as a massive free real estate venture where all you had to do was kill the res-skinned occupant and, he presto, free real estate. Then came industrialisation and the semblance of a modern country. getting rich was petty easy for the WASPs and gradually the golden circle got widened to allow more snouts reach the trough as the lower down pigs started squealling louder. The business of America was business and the religion of America was America. Get rich or die trying. Most didn’t but they were comfortably numb enough to feel like winners.

      And here we are. When everything is a grift you end up with Trump and Co. in power and a hollowed-out state. The next stage is going to look something like Brazil or Russia in the 90s but there will be no way to rebuild like Russia could because of a long tradition of a strong state.

      The decline is baked into the cake and the only question is how bad, how quickly will it get.

      1. ISL

        I would take your argument further that a strong state tradition is required to prevent a nation from fragmenting when an empire collapses.

        Given that US culture is to be at war, a fragmented nation into statelets that are almost certain to ignite multiple internecine wars until a balance of power (as in the Peace of Westphalia) arises after decades of bloodshed (which will be fed weapons by the very same major powers that the US has been trying to fragment by funding terrorist groups, also known as Karma.

        1. Christopher Mann

          That is a pertinent observation and one also made by the cultural historian Morris Berman who argues that America has a “negative identity” defined by what it is not and being in continuous conflict with enemies. There must always be an enemy because the country has no real identity of its own, according to Berman. It looks like his prediction is coming true:

          Why America Failed: The Roots of Imperial Decline

          That book was written 15 years ago and seems eerily prescient.

          1. eg

            “America has a “negative identity” defined by what it is not and being in continuous conflict with enemies”

            Likewise small-l liberalism

    3. upstater

      DJG: “The civilian branch of the U.S. government, for a number of years, hasn’t seemed in control of the military.”

      The only major instance of lack of control/insubordination I recall was the military’s refusal to depart Afghanistan at the end of Trump 1. The many major interventions have been planned and designed by civilian incompetents and dutifully put into action by flag officers. Surely there is grifting, cronyism and corruption on an epic scale by the military and civilians in the DoD, but that is nothing new and is expected behavior. The inability to audit the DoD is a lack of executive management control, but that’s been around for decades and is a feature, not a bug.

      What we don’t see or have confirmation is the military launching major operations on its own authority and ignoring civilian control. Or for that matter see many resignations, publicly refusing orders, whether kinetic, DEI dismantling or principled stands on upholding the constitution or rules of war. They are all apparently doing what they’re told by civilians Biden, Trump and their underlings. Just like the IDF.

    4. Oregon Lawhobbit

      Ideas about ideas:

      1. Stas [Krapivnik] stresses that the US blockade is hopeless. Hopless, yes. Pointless, no. The US has for a long time thrived on “looks over substance” and Trump is an epitome of that idea. Having something called a blockade that takes occasional trophies is presentable to the groundlings (and to himself) as Doing Something Painful and, as such, is a marketing win from Trump’s – and Trump adjacent minions – point of view.

      2. Something else is going wrong, because the civilian branch doesn’t seem capable of managing the military. It can. It just mostly chooses not to. Much like I’m capable of losing weight, but choose not to because I like my num-nums too much. The civilians in the DoD don’t do much because they’re, directly selected by the President to do his bidding, or else their jobs depend on doing the bidding of the person selected to do the bidding. So no help there. As far as Congress, they know which side of the bread needs to stay off the carpet – if a military adventure goes well, they can bask in the credit. If it goes Tango Uniform, then they can point their collective fingers at the Emperor and disclaim responsibility. Finally, while they may be legitimately concerned, the voters generally have something else higher on their concern list and will vote that interest with their legislator, rather than the war. Ask most gun owners how that particular bit works.

      3. Military privatization. What most non-military folk don’t realize, and even many military ones, is that pretty much the entire military structure, including down to the gun bunnies, is essentially “private.” Long ago and far away the military was considered a last ditch refuge for the otherwise unemployable (setting aside the draft), with minimal pay and benefits. Now GIs need to be attracted to service with bonuses, benefits, pay, and acceptable lifestyles. If the military is going to be “all-volunteer,” then We The People need to be given decent reasons to volunteer. As it is now simply another dotgov career choice, the “military” generally does poorly at its arguable mission and is simply a place for the grunts to work and the “CEOs” – the stars and birds – to party hearty on the taxpayer dime. All while grifters swarm around like, well, grifters in order to get their cut of the ginormous pie.

      4. Pooping presidents. See Ideas about Ideas #1. Americans don’t vote on substance, they vote on appearances. That means that incumbents generally get the nod (“If he has the job, he must have earned it, let him keep it, regardless of actual record”). The American educational “system” and society in general are also not ones that encourage heavy thinking on issues and good advertising and optics is usually sufficient to convince. As a third and final point, the system is highly rigged against non-approved alternatives. Those in power prefer to stay in power, whether they’re the elected frontmen, the bureaucratic support structure, or the financiers who use dollars to skew the system the way they want.

      Electors get the government they deserve. It’s unfortunate that I get the same government.

      PS: Mencken was right. ;-)

    5. Richard

      Compare Trump in the photo with Xi from farmboy’s comment above (which I believe is from the first term) with any recent photo. It is obvious that Trump has seriously deteriorated since the picture with Xi was taken, whenever it was taken

      https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GtV1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8db52aed-ed81-4cb8-b9b9-769f998cda0d_1999x1333.webp

  6. vao

    “the US’ and Israel’s already-limited ability to keep hitting Iran hard.”

    Israel has not been sitting idly and is pulling all the stops to increase its ability to strike Iran.

    As a recent article shows, Israelis went as far as establishing a temporary airfield in the middle of Iraq to resupply and support their planes without depending exclusively on the limited number of vulnerable aerial tankers.

    Kurdish and Azeri authorities deny their involvement in supporting Israel operationally, but if Israel goes as far as using the territory of a third country against its will, then why would it not have applied some friendly persuasion on Kurdistan and Azerbaijan to take advantage of their existing infrastructure?

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I don’t like being tart, but please, you know better.

      It has been WIDELY reported that the US and Israel are running low on nearly all categories of missiles. Establishing an airfield does not create more planes or munitions. Israel is running out of defensive and offensive missiles.

      And there’s no evidence that this temporary airfield was put to productive use.

      Will and wiliness alone do not win wars. This has often been the fallacy of Brit and now neocon think, that mere purity and persistence of intention will ever and always deliver. They need to be backed by materiel.

      That is not to say that Israel (assuming it survives) will not persist in terrorism. But that is well short of capturing territory or toppling opposed governments.

      1. ilsm

        Logistics. The support/resources needed to refuel and rearm strike aircraft is significant! Fuel is heavy, voluminous, requires storage and pipes/pumps, armaments heavier and support assets to “turn aircraft” are significant! People; bunks and beans!

        Many C-17 loads, if the C-17 (fighters) don’t crush into the lakebed!

      2. Paradox of Unrealized Power

        “It has been WIDELY reported that the US and Israel are running low on nearly all categories of missiles.”

        Just to clarify, they are running low on virtually all standoff munitions and ABMs. So far (and so far as I can see) this is all that matters, but it is worth noting that they have plenty of gravity (and glide) bombs, and that these are worth keeping in mind if circumstances change

        As for Az–>if it joins in, it may really hurt Iran, but Az may end up partitioned by Iran and Russia long term. If Az does nothing, it may end up in the indefinitely uncomfortable position of being between two larger powers.

        I do not know what path it will take or what its best options are, but I guess not joining in gives it the most long-term maneuvering

      3. hk

        Will and wiliness are how Imperial Japan lost World War II. I’m constantly reminded of ArmchairWarlord’s observation how US in 21st century is doing a fine job cosplaying WW2 era Japan.

    2. Cat Burglar

      Note that the Israeli base inside Iran was established in early March, but no longer appears to exist. The article you linked to is the most detailed report yet; the early reports in links at NC only noted that Iraqi forces stumbled onto the base, and, thinking it was Americans, went over to check it out and took fire. Then they discovered it was the Israelis.

      It seems to have been public knowledge in Iraq only a couple days after the discovery (parliamentarians were sounding off about it) and we can assume that Iranian missile targeters had the location by at least that time. So, a significant, but not recent and novel turn.

  7. HH

    It’s just a matter of time before the U.S. plutocracy removes the Trump administration. If Israel is perceived to be a bigger liability than asset, it will be discarded, Zionist billionaires notwithstanding. The prime directive of the U.S. establishment is the preservation of wealth and power, and Trump is damaging both. Like Colonel Kurtz, in “Apocalypse Now,” his methods have become unsound.

    1. The Rev Kev

      America has already experienced a civil war back in the 1860s. I wonder what a civil war between billionaires would look like? Because you have all sorts of billionaires.

      2. LilD

        Wolves are not inclined to fight other wolves, but what do they do when there are no more sheep?

        1. dave -- just dave

          Homo homini lupus est, according to a Roman proverb – man is a wolf to man. And also, wolves are wolves to other wolves – loyal, supportive and affectionate to members of their own pack, and willing to take lethal measures against members of other packs.

          Flags are one way people have of saying what pack they consider themselves a part of. One developed during my adult life that might be an emblem for a hypothetical American civil war is the “thin blue line” flag. The specific design of the black-and-white American flag with the blue stripe was created in 2014 by Andrew Jacob, a college student at the time. He founded the company Thin Blue Line USA to market and distribute the flag.

      3. John k

        Seriously, i’m still waiting for the kind that actively/financially supports socialists. There are lots on billionaires these days, not just the narcisstic big boys like bezos/musk/gates. Where are those that think we need honest pols? What, if you war against your class you don’t get invited to the big galas? So what? I’m obviously waiting for a unicorn, or maybe Godot.

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      I read a report from the Milken Conference. The attendees were remarkably unconcerned about the harm the row over control of the Strait of Hormuz was doing and was expected to do to the economy

      The insulation of the super rich from bad outcomes could blunt any reaction.

      And Mossad has deeply penetrated the administration (and has also done a ton of our wetwork, so if you think the Epstein files contain kompormat, you ain’t seen nuthin; yet), so I am not sure how this removal you posit happens on an operational level.

    3. Dr. Rob Guernsey

      You’re applying yesterday’s logic to today’s situation. It doesn’t work. Until such point where the oligarchy at the top feels pain, nothing will fundamentally change. You say Trump is damaging wealth and power but it seems to me the gap between the 1% and the rest is continuing to widen and their power is as entrenched as it ever was. These people don’t care about $5 plus gas or a losing war as long as their piece of the pie gets bigger. And, for them, Trump delivers.

      1. Cat Burglar

        I am not clear that oligarchs are going to feel pain, not matter how bad it gets for most people, but splits between differing interests and factions within a ruling class have happened. Sometimes they are generated by greed or a need of increased power, two things we know routinely motivate oligarch behavior.

        When Charles I began bilking the creditor class represented by Parliament, a ruling class split happened, and the Parliamentary side called on popular support during the Civil War. That created a pretty big opening for the unwashed classes to put their political interests forward (read up on the Putney Debates and the Diggers). So it is well to keep an eye out for conflicts among our rulers, because you never know when an opening will come, and you want to take early advantage. Our rulers won’t change things for us, but they might give us an opening.

    4. Giovanni Barca

      Based on what? Even your prime directive contradicts this. Wealth= Zionist billionaires (who are a significant percentage of the total especially if the adjective includes the Palantir posse and the loathly messers Bezos and Musk). Power=Israel, showing the way in surveillance depression and massacre.

  8. Steve H.

    > the Iran shots at the US ships were intended to scare them off.

    Based on conversations with Heinrich about the Phalanx system (decades ago), if CIWS fails the consequences hit within seconds. One step up from reactive armor. If the shots did not do damage, the attack should not be regarded as a failure, rather a finely-tuned message and assessment exercise. Singeing the eyebrows. Flicking the nose with the tip of the sword.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I was SUPER DUPER remiss in not including the claim that the CIWS were deployed not due to everything else being gone but as best for purpose among the weapons available for shooting drones at pretty short ranges.

    2. The Rev Kev

      I wonder if those CIWS systems have ammo counters. A memory was tugging at me about these weapons when I finally remembered what it was-

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQDy-5IQvuU (1:48 mins)

      It would be interesting to know if there actually is an ammo counter and if it is displayed in the Combat Information Center. But once that ammo runs short those ships would have no choice but to bug out but pronto. But it seems that at least one ship had some sort of hit on it as seen by an Iranian image of some flames on the horizon of a night time.

    3. HH

      I think the three destroyers were testing the Iranian anti-ship defenses. They would not have withdrawn if the Iranian response was weak. The destroyer commanders were acutely aware of the arithmetic of incoming threat numbers vs. their ship’s defensive magazine depth. The decision to depart was the result of this calculation. The Iranians simply have more anti-ship missiles, drones, and attack craft than the USN has defensive ammunition aboard ships in the region. Nothing short of a ground invasion will alter this disparity.

    1. ilsm

      Blockade may be reasoning behind no answer to trump’s surrender demand.

      That and faux ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon.

      All require US withdrawal.

      End of day neither US nor Israel will stop shooting.

      Betting market on opening Hormuz should put ’27 after July.

      1. Samuel Conner

        I have no special insight, but I think that major economic problems in US would be a very bad “look” for DJT at the Independence Day celebrations. Inflation biting worse than during Biden’s tenure, Summer travel badly disrupted, perhaps even visible shortages in the grocery shops.

        I think DJT will need to back down before July, to save face domestically.

  10. Jeff W

    “Iran is still silent on the US demands proposal”

    Apparently, Iran has now responded to the US proposal, according to Reuters and others:

    “According to Iran’s proposal, ⁠the current phase of negotiations will focus exclusively on the cessation of hostilities in the region, a source familiar with the matter told IRNA [the Islamic Republic News Agency].”

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Sounds like a tacit rejection. No discussion of the nuclear “dust” (as the orange dolt refers to it) until the blockade is shut down and attacks on tankers stop.

      1. MicaT

        Irans previous demands have specifically stated that all hostilities stop in Lebanon and Gaza.
        Unlikely to happen therefore the war continues

        1. .Tom

          Israel will stop when
          – it chooses, unlikely with current Israel politics, or
          – it is exhausted, Idk when that comes, or
          – the Empire forces it to stop, unlikely with current USA politics.
          So yes, I expect the war will continue.

          1. ChrisPacific

            I just don’t see how Iran and the US maintaining separate and competing blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, and tankers and now cargo ships getting hit by both sides and sometimes by unknown parties that could be black ops from other side or nations like UAE or even non-state actors taking advantage, translates to “it will all be over soon and things will go back to normal”. This is the line being advanced, without evidence, by incumbent politicians here.

            Frankly I don’t see how it ever ends. I’ve seen cases in the past where apparently irreconcilable positions suddenly coalesced into an agreement, but you need proper negotiators operating for that to happen, not Trump’s one-page napkin doodles and competing media claims. At best I could see a kind of de facto status quo equilibrium based on shared interests, as happened with the Korean War – it appears to suit both sides to hold off on the large scale missile attacks for now, for example. But I don’t see any way in which that is compatible with the Strait of Hormuz opening to anything like the degree it was before the war.

            Even if this becomes existential for Trump (and $8 gasoline would seem likely to produce that state) I’m not sure he has the tools he needs to fix it. He can’t magic up a proper negotiating team, after purging the executive branch of all but diehard loyalists at the expense of competence. He can’t suddenly become a trustworthy counterparty, after everything he’s said and done this term and earlier. He can’t wave a wand and make Israel go away. If he is removed from power somehow, his successor will face the same problems, and there’s no realistic candidate from either side who isn’t nearly as rabidly anti-Iran as he is, sometimes even more so.

            1. .Tom

              There is no end to the Mideast conflict without complete decolonization. This means total defeat of Israel and driving the US out of the region. Iran is in the process of doing the second part but it may take years of global economic crisis. I’m not sure when Israel will be defeated but I have the sense it does not have a long term future as an ethno-supremacist state. At the latest, as falls US empire, so falls Israel, which will be slow. But who knows what Iran, Hezbollah and Ansar Allah may accomplish over the next few years.

              1. ChrisPacific

                That’s not going to be pretty either, if it happens. I think Israelis have lived in the region long enough now (multiple generations) that they have rights that can’t just be erased as well. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a determined effort to try if the pendulum swings back the other way, especially given all the atrocities they’ve visited upon the region over the years. Israel for their part would be fools not to have anticipated the possibility, and doubtless have all kinds of unspeakable Samson-style plans in reserve in case of extremis.

                I think the only long term option that doesn’t involve ethnic cleansing or genocide in some form is the two sides learning how to coexist. The direction of travel over the last 80+ years has been firmly in the opposite direction, with only brief flashes of hope in the Rabin era. Enough parties on both sides are radicalised now to the point where it would require a major shift in national culture and identity. That’s likely not going to happen without a massive external shock of some kind, akin to Germany losing WW2.

        2. islm

          Hostilities in Palestine and Lebanon continue until Israel is demilitarized and all US military and naval assets removed from West Asia, all the Mediterranean and Indian ocean. Including Diego Garcia.

          47% Hormuz open by 30 June 2027

      2. Jackman

        Well, it’s Sunday here in America, gearing up for the next session of Market Monopoly so by tonight it will certainly be framed here by the administration as “only inches away” from peace. In that sense I’m a little surprised the Iranians didn’t accompany the response with some sort of broad public characterization. The Iranians are certainly hip to how Trump will frame a piece of paper that only Trump can see.

  11. Ann

    Iran sends response to US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan, reports state media

    https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/May/10/iran-sends-response-to-us-ceasefire-proposal-via-pakistan-reports-state-media

    Eight weeks to empty shelves. Sixty days to famine.

    https://markashryock.substack.com/p/eight-weeks-to-empty-shelves-sixty

    Putin Warns Armenia It Could Face “Ukraine Scenario” Over EU Ambitions

    https://united24media.com/world/putin-warns-armenia-it-could-face-ukraine-scenario-over-eu-ambitions-18637

    Iran war ceasefire tested as cargo ship catches fire and Kuwait and UAE repel drone attacks

    https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-attack-may-10-2026-f8812db41837336d816efaea7bc1c44a

    Aramco CEO warns 1 billion barrels lost will slow oil market recovery

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/aramco-ceo-warns-1-billion-barrels-lost-will-slow-oil-market-recovery-2026-05-10/

    India-Russia pact allows troops and warships on each other’s soil

    https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/defense/india-russia-pact-allows-troops-and-warships-on-each-other-s-soil

    Middle East oil producers eye S. Korean reserve bases amid Hormuz crisis

    https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/75636

  12. The Rev Kev

    ‘Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸
    @FmrRepMTG
    Where are the two pilots that crashed and were rescued in Iran?
    Are they ok?
    Why don’t we know anything about them?’

    https://xcancel.com/FmrRepMTG/status/2052872852840321527

    A lot of those replies to her tweet are pretty savage. You almost get the impression that a whole group of MAGA groupies just sit there waiting for a tweet from MTG so that they can attack her.

    1. Alice X

      Then there are the replies in the Scott Horton vid. Yikes! What was the aphorism about remaining silent and being thought a fool? (Or maybe wise) Or opening one’s mouth and leaving no doubt. If doing a fact check is too much, a dummy could at least try a spelling and grammar check. I may want a stiff drink soon, foolish no doubt.

      1. Lefty Godot

        I think a lot of these commenters are paid per word and using multiple IDs. Not all, but some are too repetitive and persistent.

      2. lampoon

        When encountering ignorance or stupidity, both of which are evident in abundance in many comments to social media posts (thankfully not here), I try to keep in mind Wittgenstein’s Ruler. As explained by N.N. Taleb in Fooled by Randomness, unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use that ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler. For example, Bill James, who virtually invented baseball analytics, once said that if your evaluative formula leads you to conclude that Johnny Bench was a poor baseball player, this says very little about Johnny Bench, but a great deal about the person who devised the formula. Similarly, if a commenter asserts that Scott Horton is (within Scott’s arena of expertise) ignorant, incompetent, insincere, dimwitted, or mendacious, that says very little about Scott Horton, but it says a great deal about the commenter.

        1. Alice X

          Well, did Johnny catch the ball or didn’t he, did Alice play the right note on her violin or didn’t she.

          There are observable facts, and then there is Ad hominem.

          Which so many there were engaged in.

          I did add some points about Horton and commies below.

          I never mean to kick down, there’s not much down from where I’m at. :-/

  13. Ann

    Trump says, ‘I love S. Korea,’ after Seoul, Washington sign MOU on shipbuilding cooperation

    https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260509001100315

    Qatari LNG tanker sailing towards Hormuz Strait, shipping data shows

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/qatari-lng-tanker-sailing-towards-hormuz-strait-shipping-data-shows-2026-05-09/

    Russian frigate spotted in UK waters as Putin brazenly steps up his ‘grey war’

    https://inews.co.uk/news/russian-frigate-spotted-uk-waters-putin-grey-war-4409627

    UAE intercepts two drones from Iran, Qatari PM warns Iran against using Hormuz as ‘pressure tool’

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895692

    Trump has a better understanding of the Bible than Pope Leo, says conservative Christian pastor

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-robert-jeffress-bible-pope-b2973812.html

    A major watchdog says data centers are wreaking havoc on North America’s power grid

    https://www.businessinsider.com/nerc-issues-alert-on-data-centers-threatening-grid-stability-2026-5

    1. Ignacio

      Russian frigate spotted in UK waters as Putin brazenly steps up his ‘grey war’
      https://inews.co.uk/news/russian-frigate-spotted-uk-waters-putin-grey-war-4409627

      The vessel was spotted 30 miles away from UK shores. I regret to say this are not UK waters which exist but only reach 12 miles from coastal baselines. These are possibly waters in which the UK has exclusive rights to exploit fisheries and resources below the sea bed but these are not UK waters in legal terms. Bad reporting here and I am certain there are many in the UK who know perfectly well how the sea areas are defined by the UN Convention for the Law of Sea.

  14. ISL

    What will the IRGC do? I agree that the status quo is unacceptable to Iran and Iran has promised a response to the next, inevitable, US provocation (Dan Davis shows that Trump’s fantabulous social media feed shows he believes he is in control*).

    Shutting Bab al Mandar is unlikely to spook the markets given the inevitable manipulation. So that means kinetic. What would I do if I were Iran? Probably hit one of the US military vessels that are in port by submarine, which will be denied by Centcom or claimed a laundry fire again (as a test of MSM loyalty). But the message will be received by the Pentagon.

    *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wlrt_nd9RE8

      1. Oregon Lawhobbit

        But would someone who knew Axios was going to print such a story be able to use that knowledge, before publication, to tickle the market a bit?

        “Oh what a tangled web” and all that…

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Perhaps the Iranians could get in on the grift, too. Buy some oil futures right beforehand …

    1. Alice X

      The Kurds in Syria are said to be Anarchists, a ways away from Communists (the two haven’t gotten along forever, but they could imho), so various commentators do get their slurs mixed up, Scott Horton and Sabby Sabs included.

        1. Alice X

          I long had the idea that humanity could advance to where we would treat each other as equals. Something along anarchist lines. But increasingly I see that we have been split and maybe an iron, albeit benign if that could be, fist must push asunder the individualist self aggrandizer. Alas.

  16. XXYY

    Around 680,000 Iranians living abroad have returned to Iran during the war, mainly via the Turkish land border.

    Quite remarkable, and something that speaks well of Iran’s national identity and patriotism, in the actual sense of the word. Israelis, on the other hand, have been fleeing Israel during this war, as I understand it.

    Did Americans return to the US en masse at the start of World War II? That’s the last time in American history that a “patriotic war” was being fought and I’m wondering if it’s a common human reaction in times of great national emergency.

    1. Samuel Conner

      I have read that at the beginning of the Bar Kochba rebellion, 132AD, something like a quarter million diaspora Jews returned to Judea to help in the independence fight, more than could be armed.

      That fight did not end well, with the Romans conducting mass deportations and renaming of geographical regions to erase the memory of the prior place.

      The present rumored net emigration from Israel suggests a somewhat different ethos.

  17. Alice X

    The Persians have a strong basis for a national identity. They’ve been there for over 2,500 years. If one looks at the historical maps it has always centered on present day Iran, it is geography. On the other hand, the Izzies missed two thousand in the middle and the USians missed almost all of it. I don’t know where humanity will go without a increasing sense of commonality.

  18. Ann

    Iran demands guarantees for World Cup participation

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgpxg03v57o

    If Iran goes to the world cup, Israel will assassinate the entire team.

    Social Security Can Change Into Personal Accounts Under Trump Plan—Ted Cruz

    https://www.newsweek.com/social-security-can-change-into-personal-accounts-under-trump-plan-ted-cruz-11930756

    Iran’s Supreme Leader briefs military chief on ‘new guiding measures’, Fars agency says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-briefs-military-chief-new-guiding-measures-fars-agency-says-2026-05-10/

    Trump thinks he’s flying to Beijing with leverage. China spent 6 years making sure he doesn’t have any

    https://fortune.com/2026/05/10/steve-hanke-trump-beijing-summit-china-leverage-rare-earths-hormuz/

    Netanyahu: Iran war ‘not over’ until enriched uranium is removed

    https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hycu17a0bl

    Trump’s bromance with Putin is turning sour

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/trumps-bromance-with-putin-turning-sour-4394235

  19. lampoon

    Stanislav Krapivnik was on the Duran this morning, and he said drone warfare is about to fundamentally change because the Chinese have developed an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that fries the drone’s chip circuitry. It is deployed through a dish antenna that can be mounted on a vehicle, has a 180 x -5 (?) degree scope, and has a range of 5 kilometers. This allows an area defense – disabling entire drone swarms at once (as opposed to a “point defense” i.e. shooting down drones one at a time, which is obviously not so effective against swarms). He said the Russians are testing it now. If it is effective, this will take away the one thing that Ukraine still had available to slow the Russian advance despite Ukraine’s manpower shortages.

    1. hk

      That sounds too sci fi to be believed. If you can fry electronics across a decent area up to 3 plus miles by basically shooting a beam, that’d be a lot bigger deal than just drone defense, though.

    2. Paradox of Unrealized Power

      Not saying this is impossible, but:

      1. How do you use this and not fry all of your own electronics? (I assume you will say highly directive, but that will not work with a 180 degree scope).
      2. Power decreases as a function of the square of the distance. 1-2km is possible, but still somewhat difficult. but 2km distance is 4x harder than 1km, and 5km is 25X more difficult (obscurants such as sand, rain, fog, etc. make it even more difficult) . Again, maybe not impossible, but stretches credulity without proof.
      3. The immediate counter is to harden the electronics. A bit more expensive, but not overly difficult; it is much more difficult to produce the anti-drone weapon for now than to improve the drone’s resistance

      Just some very off-the-cuff thoughts.

      Also curious why the Chinese would develop this instead of the Russians, who have absolutely first-class scientists and an immediate pressing need forthis tech.

      1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

        Incidentally, I am too lazy too run the calculations, but I think that if such a device actually works and a person actually hand-operated it, the energies may be enough to boil them alive.

        But who knows–maybe there are clever workarounds.

      2. nyleta

        I think they are talking about the Hurricane 3000 HPM weapon, an area denial microwave weapon. The also have the naval LY-1 solid state laser canon ( 150 kWh ) in a container now. Wonder what the power plant is, a shot every 8 seconds apparently.

  20. Ann

    “Much smaller shots”: Trump thinks vaccines are too “big” for babies

    https://www.salon.com/2026/05/10/much-smaller-shots-trump-thinks-vaccines-are-too-big-for-babies/

    Netanyahu: War with Iran ‘accomplished a great deal, but it’s not over’

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/10/netanyahu-war-with-iran-accomplished-a-great-deal-but-its-not-over-00913622

    In rare push, US lawmakers demand transparency on Israel nuclear capability

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/6/in-rare-push-us-lawmakers-demand-transparency-on-israel-nuclear-capability

    Netanyahu says Trump told him ‘I want to go in’ and take Iran’s uranium

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign-policy/4562222/netanyahu-trump-iran-uranium-operation/

    Oil slick near Kharg Island? Iran’s crude industry at breaking point amid US blockade – The Times of India

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/oil-slick-near-kharg-island-irans-crude-industry-at-breaking-point-amid-us-blockade/articleshow/130992375.cms

    US intelligence-gathering flights are surging off Cuba

    https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/10/americas/us-spy-flights-cuba-latam-intl

  23. Ann

    Kelly on Iran war: ‘What are the American people getting out of this?’

    https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5871765-us-iran-conflict-costs-rise/

    Trump ‘terribly weakened’ ahead of China visit: Top Armed Services Democrat

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5871630-reed-trump-china-iran

    Trump’s Energy Secretary: “I Can’t Predict the Price of Energy”

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/05/chris-wright-gas-prices/

    Trump wants to check on the gold in Fort Knox because ‘they steal a lot’

    https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-fort-knox-gold-steal-b2973930.html

    Tehran responds to U.S. proposal; Trump: ‘Iran will be laughing no longer’

    https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/2026-05-10/ty-article/.premium/irans-response-to-u-s-proposal-to-end-war-sent-via-pakistan-state-media-says/0000019e-120e-db97-adbf-366fef190000

    Iran responds to US ceasefire proposal as drones target Gulf nations

    https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-attack-may-10-2026-f8812db41837336d816efaea7bc1c44a

    IDF chief warns lawmakers that army ‘will fall apart’ without additional soldiers

    https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rjre64rrwx

    Trump’s visit to China will focus on Iran issue, demand more pressure on Tehran, US officials say

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-895738

    Past top Israeli, US officials reveal new vision for ties rooted in tech partnership

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/past-top-israeli-us-officials-reveal-new-vision-for-ties-rooted-in-tech-partnership/

  25. Jason Boxman

    We’re governed by functionally stupid people

    The United States and Iran have been discussing a 30-day extension to their cease-fire and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

    NY Times. No one is discussing reopening anything. I hate this timeline. Welcome to week ten.

    1. ChrisFromGA

      Just remember: they’re lying liars, who lie, lie, lie. It’s who they are.

      Accept that truth. They never get the benefit of the doubt, they being the media.

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