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Iran War: More Speculation that US Will Restart War, Along with Possible UAE Operation Against Key Iran Island, Big Explosion at Israel Weapons Factory; Yet More on Imminent Real Economy Damage

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[Today’s Iran war post launched before finished due to personal maintenance. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]

Now that Trump is back from China and can keep the fake media afterglow going only so long, the Iran war and its rapidly escalating economic cost will again move to the forefront. As we will soon show, Twitterverse chatter as well as the assessment of greybeards with expertise (see the discussion with Larry Wilkerson below) is that Trump is still set to launch a big attack on Iran. The Twitter wags claim he is to make a decision within 24 hours:

And a sign of movement of assets into possible combat position:

A possible indirect sign that new strikes against Iran are likely is a surge of propaganda trying to depict the nation as on its last legs:

We pointed out that Iran has revised its military doctrine to allow for pre-emptive strikes if an attack is imminent. Might Iran finally do that? Iran has also kept hinting that it has new super duper weapons it has yet to unleash. A spooky contact who has been generally accurate says one is a hypersonic missile with a 3000km range (note Iran’s current missile limit is 2000km, despite disinfo otherwise, apparently intended to scare Europe). Importantly, it can also be directed in its terminal phase. Would Iran use this weapon, in a show of its sophistication, to punch a hole in the airstrip of an aircraft carrier? The ideal move for Iran with respect to the Navy is to cripple a ship without sinking it.

I have to confess to having gaslighted too many times by Trump to be as alarmed as seems warranted. How many times have we seen Hair Furore make threats that he will Do Something Big and then do something small and stupid, like Project Freedumb, or try to depict negotiations as back on (when not) to soothe Mr. Market’s rattled nerves?

The apparent timing is all wrong unless Trump gives the green light for a later launch date. Restarting conflict early in business week would maximize negative investor reactions.

However, the long Memorial Day weekend starts next weekend, and for most desk jockeys, the Friday before is de facto part of that holiday. The stock market is open all day that day but the bond markets grind to a halt in the early PM EDT. So is that Trump’s action window?

Nevertheless, the timing of these rumors appearing over the weekend is consistent with yet another market pump operation. Financial asset prices fell and oil rallied Friday when investors realized that China had made no commitment to do anything with respect to Iran. Investors need to get through their thick heads that China is fine with the new Iran scheme to regularize operations and collect tolls:

And investors will be chewing their knuckles as (see more below) bad real economy news accumulates. So expect Trump to try to pretend that China will push Iran to the negotiating table to keep Mr. Market anaesthetized.
A reminder:

A new set of stories, on the US pushing the UAE to seize some nearby islands seized by the Iran under the Shah, with those claims contested by the UAE, is another proof of US weakness. The key issue is the US is trying to get the UAE to saddle up for some military misadventurism.1 The caper is “take Kargh Island 2.0” but with the UAE tasked to this suicide mission, of taking Lavan Island, which is near Kargh Island. A map tells you how nutty this idea is. The objective is easily within reach of all sorts of Iran fire:

However, it has strategic value in that is it just to the west of the Strait of Hormuz (so pray tell how to get there?!?!) and is a backup to Kargh Island for oil exports.

More detail from the Telegraph, which broke the story in Trump’s officials tell UAE to seize crucial Iranian island (hat tip Kevin W). Mind you, this seems to be a single-sourced story, so handle with care :

Trump administration officials are encouraging the United Arab Emirates to get more heavily involved in the Iran war and seize one of Tehran’s Gulf islands…

Some in Donald Trump’s circle have suggested the UAE should take Lavan Island, which was reportedly bombed in secret military strikes by the Emiratis in early April, a former senior Trump security official told The Telegraph.

“Go take ’em!” the official said. “It would be UAE boots on the ground instead of US.”…

No joke, there is nothing more of substance about this scheme in the report, just a lot of backstory of the UAE hitching its wagon even more firmly to the US.

Overnight, there were big explosions at a major Israeli weapons-maker. The government implausibly tried to depict it as a controlled detonation (Larry Johnson debunks that long form at the top of a talk with Mario Nawfal). No one has taken credit but Iran struck that facility in March and thus seems likely to have done so again:

Click through for more on the operations at the site. I doubt that there was any nuclear release; a big enough conventional explosion will also produce a mushroom cloud. But if Iran did hit close to a nuclear weapons cache, what does Israel do? Risk moving them, which could be detected?

This tweet presents key image:

This Hindustan Times has more visuals as well as additional detail on Israeli explanations:

In a bridge of sorts between the kinetic and economic fronts, Larry Wilkerson had a deceptively informative talk with Stanislav Krapivnik, in that Stas likes to be very informal but that does not impede the overall bitrate transmission of information. It included several important discussions. One early on was on distress in the farm belt (starting at 12:00), in that farmers are simply not planting due to lack of fertilizer and high diesel costs. Second was off topic for this post but worth a listen as general intel, on the actions of the Cuban community in the US and some interesting inconsistencies in what Marco Rubio says about his background and what others have reported (starting at 42:50). Third is that Wilkerson (at 1:09:40) no indication this is based on specific intel, just his reading of events) that Trump will resume the war but it will be strictly an Air Force affair, with no ground troops and no use of “naval air”. If Wilkerson is correct, that means all the Special Forces moved to theater have become mere threat display and camouflage for the main event. It also means the US does not face the time constraint I had discussed, of the high temperatures in the Persian Gulf as of very soon making ground operations untenably difficult.

Importantly, Wilkerson said (and this is based on reports from contacts) the Saudis have protested to the US and told them to leave the bases. But he is not sure if they will follow up by sending armed personnel as a demonstration of seriousness (IMHO all they nee to do is tell the US they are cutting off power and water supplies as of a specified time). Wilkerson in an earlier talk which I did not post mentioned (with Larry Johnson and Nima) in passing said that even back in his days with Colin Powell, the Saudis were known for playing both sides, so he was not surprised at the Saudis pushing the US for more war while trying to reach an accommodation with Iran. This reminds me of the behavior of New York City developers, who will regularly back both candidates for offices important to them, and then in the home stretch, if one looks like a sure winner, give generously to their campaign.

Despite storied Saudi duplicity, if the Saudis take the Iran threat to wreck their energy infrastructure seriously, as they appeared to when they pulled Trump’s choke chain over Project Freedumb, they will act to get the US out for self preservation reasons. If the Kuwaits and Qataris follow suit, this raised the possibility that the US will hit Iran but the Iranian massive retaliation will be limited to Israel and the UAE and any other Gulf States too dumb not to make it convincingly clear that they had no role in these strikes and took actives steps to try to prevent them.

On the economic side, as we and others have been screaming from the rooftops, the energy crunch will become critical sooner than investors and most nominal experts have assumed:

Soon-to-arrive motor oil shortages in the US will be severe:

Craig Tindale, in a new post, The Global Reagent Squeeze: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities in Critical Mineral Processing, continues to describe the multifaceted shortages now coming into play. His piece is well documented and argued, so rather than attempt to summarize it, let me hoist a few parts to entice you to read it in full:

The central paradox of our age is now impossible to ignore.

The global transition to electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and advanced defence technologies was intended to free humanity from dependence on fossil fuels.

Yet the chemical reagents that make this transition possible are not new green inventions; they are direct by-products of the fossil-fuel economy itself. And today these same reagents have become the arena for an unforgiving contest between two of civilisation’s most basic imperatives: feeding eight billion people and powering the electrified world.

The molecule at the heart of the conflict is sulphuric acid. It is the single most important chemical input for almost every major hydrometallurgical process in modern mining…

At the same time, sulphuric acid is the primary feedstock used to convert phosphate rock into phosphate fertilisers, the nutrients that sustain global agriculture. More than half of all sulphuric acid produced on Earth (55–60 %) is consumed by the fertiliser industry. Mining, even at the peak intensity required by the energy transition, accounts for only a fraction of total demand.

This creates a direct, molecule-for-molecule competition. Every extra tonne of copper cathode, nickel mixed hydroxide precipitate, or uranium yellowcake produced through acid-intensive methods consumes acid that could otherwise have been used to make fertiliser.

The dual shocks of 2026, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to elemental sulphur shipments and China’s comprehensive ban on sulphuric acid exports have turned this latent competition into an immediate, zero-sum geopolitical triage….

Together, these events have orchestrated a dual supply shock that is about to choke the operations of base metal, precious metal, and battery material producers in their most critical chemical inputs.

The crisis is redefining the cost curves of global mining, triggering production downgrades, and proving conclusively that resource security cannot be achieved without integrated chemical supply chain resilience.

This tidbit may partly explain Mr. Market’s continued levitation: more cash coming in via a rise in borrowings. But seasoned investors know leverage cuts both ways:

And finally, some signs of Zionist karma coming home to roost:

Done for today! See you tomorrow!

____

1 Mind you, there are some islands that the US could take that would have trophy if not much practical value.

We highlighted early on that Chas Freeman had mentioned capturing them as one of the few not crazy things the US could do with the Special Forces the US was moving into theater. Freeman say this objective as achievable and not unduly risky and would make the UAE happy. I am not at all knowledgeable about these islands, but readers depicted them as a Snake Island level target. Recall that Russia took Snake Island, which was in a strategically useful spot in the Black Sea, but barren except for a couple of small barracks that IIRC dated to the Soviet era.

Ukraine succeeded in running the Russians off. But my dim recollection is that Russia has also prevented Ukraine from establishing a presence there.

The point is that some or perhaps all of these islands may be too wanting in buildings and other infrastructure to secure.

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109 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    ‘Philip Pilkington
    @philippilk
    Rabobank ran a model of oil inventories in Europe and found that inventories fall to almost nothing by September on current trajectory. Supply disruptions should kick in much sooner than that though.’

    Not that the EU will ever do so but now would be a great time to start a rationing & restrictions system to make that oil last a bit longer. But does this take into account tank bottoms? How as you draw down the oil in those huge storage tanks, that you cannot use the crud at the bottom?

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    1. paul

      That will be something ‘techies’ (trans:normally skilled working class) to work out.

      That’s what we are paying them as little as possible for.

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    2. BlueMoose

      It especially does not help that here in Poland they have implemented a price cap scheme and reduced taxes on fuel at the gas stations. They are supposed to re-evaluate at the end of May to see if it needs to be extended. I am guessing they will as vacation season will be starting up. By the time it gets serious, there will be nothing to ration.

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      1. ISL

        Given that refineries require blends for their products, the likelihood is that well before the “bottom of the barrel,” of the reserves, refineries will lose the ability to make certain products (like motor oil) due to a component NOT being available to them (even if it is in the strategic reserve of another country), and the crisis will hit way earlier than July.

        The problem is the ignorance that oil is oil. I have no idea how to find out which crudes are in the US strategic reserves, but since a significant portion of the releases are reported as being exported – it’s probably NOT what US refineries use as feedstock and the supply snafu will be much worse than expected (see Covid19 – US rated best prepared for a pandemic in 2018!).

        meant to respond to Rev Kev…..

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        1. vao

          The situation is even less tractable when adding the further constraint that refineries cannot adjust their operations to the amount of available crude in an entirely linear fashion: there is a minimum load below which plants simply cannot operate.

          While this level varies from a refinery to another because of differences in technology, the quality of oil being processed, etc, a typical value is 50%. Thus, if a refinery gets oil corresponding to only 45% of its processing capacity, this does not mean it will output gasoline, diesel, bitumen, etc, at a 45% rate; instead, it will not be able to produce anything at all.

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    4. DD GE

      Seen from Western Europe, it is REALLY starting to look as if our rulers are prepping us for maximum damage when the ship will hit the sand.
      As Pete Hegseth would say, we are “maximally postured”, and not in a good way.
      There is, in France AFAICT, no anticipation for when those onshore commercial oil inventories reach critical levels.
      Party on, and all that.

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      1. Who Cares

        Netherlands at least has put the country on alert by activating their oil crisis plan.
        Don’t read to much into it though, it is only the first step/stage which means drawing up plans and putting the population on notice that restrictions can be applied in the future.

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        1. Kouros

          When COVID hit in my neck of the woods and people opened the binders with the plans for such situations, immediately threw them away because those plans were truly useless… Criminal negligence… Oh, we’ll do it better next time.

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    5. John k

      Imo tanks are normally drained from the bottom, so it can be pretty much emptied and little sludge is left. But pipelines are another matter… if you do manage to fully drain it during shortage it means it must be fully filled when supply is again available before any oil comes out the other end.
      Refineries I think require a minimum amount of filling before they can function, meaning they can’t be fully drained.
      If the gulf infra is significantly damaged full flow will not be restored for some time. In that case it would be hard to build up reserves (fill tanks/pipelines etc) unless significant demand destruction has occurred, meaning price must remain high enough for the said destruction to continue.
      Uae plus Kuwait exported a combined 4mmb/d in 2025, they might be hit hard if the war hots up.

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  2. raspberry jam

    Regarding kinetics resuming in Israel… I am hosting a conference for colleagues starting tomorrow here on Malta and one of the attendees is coming from Israel. He had to book the travel through an approved government travel agency in case air restrictions go back in. He booked this beginning of last week. Even in the week prior he was concerned about Iran and he paid out of pocket to stay through the week and following weekend on Malta. He will probably get an alert directly from the gov travel agency before it is public if the travel restrictions go back in before the holiday weekend.

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  4. Alan Sutton

    I like that video of Blinken being confronted and worrying about the children.

    Out in public with no security guards. Must feel pretty unsafe now.

    Good! Hats off to the woman asking the questions.

    Even if you have righteousness on your side it always takes guts to upset and confront people like that.

    Nice one.

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    1. JohnnyGL

      Absolutely agree. There are serial killers who walk among us. We can’t act like they didn’t do their crimes. They shouldn’t be permitted to act like they belong with the rest of us.

      Reply ↓
    2. JohnH

      Blinken was wearing a suit at what looks to be an outdoor fair…more evidence the he’s an Israeli droid, not a human. He certainly talks like one: “rules based order…rules based order,,,rules based order…rules based order…no genocide in Gaza…no genocide in Gaza…no genocide in Gaza.” Or maybe he’s just an early, failed version of an AI robot.

      Reply ↓
  5. DJG, Reality Czar

    “Go take ’em!” the official said. “It would be UAE boots on the ground instead of US.”…

    This pretty much is the U.S. ethos now. Use catspaws like Ukraine against Russian to then dismantle the Russian Federation and sack the remaining defenseless mini-states like Mordovia (that plan didn’t work out…). Arm ICE to the teeth, mask them, and let them abuse and kill citizens and noncitizens. Pretend that the UAE is going to conquer Iran. Use Israeli forces to engage in a genocide to keep the Middle East riled up.

    Meanwhile, all these brave men and women believe that sanctions are some noble way of persuading others to come to their senses. Recall the sainted Madeleine Albright, who when asked by Leslie Stahl about the 500 000 dead Iraqi children, lives shortened by sanctions, pretty much said, As if I give a shit.

    Trump wants to bomb Iran back to the neolithic and paleolithic stone ages. Hillary Clinton merely wanted to “obliterate” Iran.

    But by remote control, so as not to hurt their own extraordinarily delicate feelings.

    And with an ethos that is nothing but cowardice, quivering, and soiling one’s bloomers, these brave men and women can’t even govern. Or won’t even govern.

    PS: I have read the articles in the run-up to the attacks on Iran. I have read each daily update during the current Empire Fury. I cannot understand what the role of the UAE is and why the government decided to be the Akrotiri and Israel of the Persian Gulf. Did any of the emirs even look at a map? Someone please explain the suicidal impulses of the UAE, where only about 12 percent of the population of 10,000,000 even can claim citizenship. ‘Tis a mystery, brethren and sistren.

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    1. Expat2uruguay

      Regarding why leaders of the UAE are cooperating with the US and Israel: could the answer be Blackmail?

      Why do people resist giving this serious consideration? I don’t get it.

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    2. TRM

      “Someone please explain the suicidal impulses of the UAE”

      In part (perhaps big part) it is the Sunni vs Shia similar in hatred to Protestant vs Catholic in Europe 200+ years ago. Pathological hatred of the Shia would be my guess. Aside from that I can’t think of any sane reason. Maybe others will post with their ideas LOL.

      Reply ↓
      1. Victor Sciamarelli

        You don’t have to go so far back in time. Take Irish Catholics and Protestants. I would say most religious conflicts are not about religion but about political control, land ownership, wealth distribution, etc.
        In the case of the Irish, the Protestants wanted to remain part of the UK and the Catholics favored a united Ireland. I imagine, if you look deeper, the Sunni and Shia arguments involve political control and wealth, less so about religion.

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    3. JohnH

      So now the US is going to fight Iran to the last Emirati? That shouldn’t take long! What a Mensch Trump is! [not]

      Reply ↓
    4. Giovanni Barca

      Those Iraqi lives weren’t just shortened by sanctions. They were shortened by repeated bombings of water treatment plants. Active and passive murder bundled for one low low price that we think it was worth it.

      Reply ↓
    5. Grebo

      The UAE is run by absolute monarchs (ie. gangsters). They are apparently behind the genocidal chaos in Sudan. They were enthusiastic drivers of the war against Yemen’s Houthies. They supported ISIS in Syria and are up to something in Somalia and its breakaways. They are very chummy with Israel, not just the US.

      So the UAE has some very murky ambitions.

      Reply ↓
  7. Anon

    Eventually one accepts that most of the people who do terrible things in this world are going to get away with it and often even be rewarded. I’ll accept that the only justice we can expect is some public humiliation. Thanks for posting that Blinken video.

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    1. Yves Smith Post author

      One of the most destructive effects of neoliberalism is the deliberate weakening of the power of community opinion.

      In my youth, local shunning was a meaningful curb on bad behavior. Men who cheated at cards or worse would be shunned at their clubs and would not be invited to serve on boards of important organizations.

      That stopped having much effect some time ago due to neoliberalism effects:

      Weakening community ties.. Those who work to survive, including members of the C-suite and professionals at large national or regional firms as well as lower-level workers, have been successfully conditioned to see themselves at atomized individuals operating in markets. They are expected to be mobile. Even if they manage to stay more or less in the same major metro area, they very rarely stay with the same employer, so even their bonds with co-workers are weak. Many are subject to “on call” demands, which also undermines community involvement, be it playing in a after-work sports team or getting meaningfully involved in a charity.

      Maggie Thatcher made clear that outcome was an explicit goal: “There is no such thing as society.”

      Hollowing out of smaller cities. Cities like Dayton, Ohio, which once hosted many decent-sized companies (NCR, Stouffer, Delco, Mead, for instance), had them all acquired by bigger players and their headquarters staff and execs folded into a bigger entity (typically they did not last long; the buyer always sees the staff of the purchased business as no good even when that it regularly bogus). The executives of these companies were local notables and felt they had reputations to uphold.

      Greed is good. Neoliberalism represents the amorality of economics on steroids.

      The huge wealth accumulation of 1980s takeover artists, who regularly violated SEC and banking and insurance rules and engaged in other shady behavior by the standards of those days (Connie Bruck’s The Predators’ Ball provided details) ushered in the finance version of “Might makes right”. In the old days, it would have been impossible for someone like Mike Milken to acquire some legitimacy via his Milken Conference. By contrast that great American socialist Richard Nixon, who established the EPA, instituted revenue sharing, tried to implement a national basic income, and went to China, who fell from grace a bit more than a decade before Milken, remained in the wilderness despite efforts to crawl back a bit (he was able publish a few good articles)

      Reply ↓
      1. Arthur Bryant

        Thank you for mentioning all these happenings. For more I highly recommend Nisbet, “The Quest for Community,” (1953). They have been a long time coming.

        Reply ↓
        1. Giovanni Barca

          Yeah but Nisbet took his money from the same people who pushed neoliberalism. I love fairly near the ghost of Russell Kirk in the Mitten, another “conservative mind’ who hitched his wagon to the GOP and Reaganism. The trad wing of the fusionist triad was always the vote getter and always the wing that merely fed the militarism and Friedmanism.

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        1. flora

          For anyone who watched the multipart “The Mayfair Set” this reference will be familiar.

          James Goldsmith was a member of that set; a set of early UK private equity business takeovers and hollow-out-for-personal-gain financiers.

          Here he is on Charlie Rose warning of the dangers to a country of going down the road the UK neoliberal economics had taken. Trying to clear his conscience? This interview was broadcast in 1994 when “left” party leaders C and Blair were cheerfully following the neoliberal economic playbook. utube.

          Charlie Rose: Sir James Goldsmith Interview – 15.11.94

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwmOkaKh3-s

          Goldsmith was right. The warning came too late. Neoliberalism, the economics of the WEF and Davos had already captured the imaginations of the rising young politicians, both left and right in the US and the UK. C and Blair were the intellectual heirs of Reagan and Thatcher and Milton Friedman et al. / imo.

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  8. Tom Stone

    And the media is once again exaggerating, what happened at Beit Shemesh is no more than a mattress fire, probably cause by a dropped cigarrette.
    It’s contained…

    Reply ↓
      1. Wukchumni

        Bet Shemesh sounds like an online gambling site…

        Wager 5 Shekels on your first bet and somehow win 50 Shekels.

        Reply ↓
          3. hereweare

            “It is misspelled, correct spelling is Beit Shemesh”
            Out of interest, who decides on these matters, and how? Is there an official guide to transliterating from Hebrew to English? Or do Hebrew place names get assigned official English equivalents?

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              1. hereweare

                I think it’s Hebrew. I don’t think there is a standardised or official way of rendering Arabic in the Roman alphabet.

                Reply ↓
            2. gk

              There is an official guide. Unfortunately, it postdates the first assignment of Hebrew names to English (or rather, Latin) names. So Cesarea, via a “mistransliteration” into Hebrew, has become the ridiculous Kesariya in English.

              Reply ↓
    3. Glen

      This looks like an accident to me.

      Accidents around ordnance at munitions depots or factories can get bad, very bad. Here’s a rather famous one from the Cold War:

      Severomorsk Disaster
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severomorsk_Disaster

      Munitions had reportedly detonated after a fire started on May 13, which thus caused a massive chain of explosions on May 17, and resulted in the deaths of at least 200–300 people, and the destruction of at least 900 of the Northern Fleet’s missiles and torpedoes.[

      Reply ↓
  9. mrsyk

    The oncoming shortages will not be evenly divided.
    Has there been even one comment from the US government on how we’re going to manage it?
    We are all on our own.

    Reply ↓
    1. TJBuff

      Well, we pretty much did diddly with Covid and I expect we’ll do even less now. Except probably make it worse faster by diverting critical resources to military use.

      Reply ↓
    2. doug

      T proposed doing away with Fed gas tax as a way to ‘manage’ it. So, their suggestions might not be warranted, or even 180 degrees out of phase with what is needed.

      Reply ↓
      1. flora

        Doing away with the Fed gas tax won’t create fuel.

        Per wiki:
        “The federal gasoline tax is 18.4 cents per gallon, and it primarily funds the Highway Trust Fund, which supports road construction and maintenance across the United States. This tax has not been increased since 1993, leading to concerns about the fund’s ability to meet infrastructure needs.”

        So, eliminating the fed gas tax with hasten the erosion of the federal highway system infrastructure. Hey, maybe it could be sold off to billionaire buyers, public-private partnership. Think any of T’s crony’s would be interested in having a choke-hold on major US highways? Just a thought. (what? too cynical? ) / ;)

        Reply ↓
        1. JonnyJames

          I fully agree, since the kleptocratic oligarchy has been asset-stripping the US for a long time now, the next step would be to privatize and impose tolls on highways and transportation infrastructure. This is consistent with the established trends. It’s already happening in the SF Bay Area toll lanes.

          One can never be too cynical in viewing some of the most cynical and criminal ruling elites in history. We are talking about an oligarchy that uses public resources to commit genocide and other atrocities while they make profits and gain more power.

          Reply ↓
          1. tegnost

            Same in Seattle where every major road project turns into a toll rd. I’d posit the “capitalist” (truly they are coddled socialists too daft to know that or much of anything else other than stacking coins in their lair) goal is to privatize everything and the .gov purpose is to collect tithe. And shouldn’t one have to pay citizen rent? Like when you’re born your parents have to start paying a fee, managed by jp morgan chase, of course…they won’t do it for nothing…

            Reply ↓
            1. JonnyJames

              I agree, except that the “coddled socialists” are really just coddled, corrupt kleptocrats working on behalf of their bribe-masters

              Reply ↓
  11. The Rev Kev

    ‘Iran has revised its military doctrine to allow for pre-emptive strikes if an attack is imminent.’

    Anybody else wondering about those explosions in Israel? Usually it is Israel doing all those pre-emptive strikes but it must be a bummer to be on the end of one. Bit sus how those emergency response vehicles were blocked from going to those fires. Was it because everything there is top secret or was it a case of the site being radioactive?

    Reply ↓
  12. farmboy

    “One early on was on distress in the farm belt (starting at 12:00), in that farmers are simply not planting due to lack of fertilizer and high diesel costs” it’ll be worth watching corn planting progress for sure

    Reply ↓
    1. ISL

      …and will there be diesel at a price the customer can pay to harvest? And will there be diesel at a price manufacturers are willing to pay to process and unload the harvest? And will there be plastic packaging at the manufacturer for shipping the food? And will there be diesel to transport it from manufacturers to warehouses? And will there be propane to load and unload the trucks? And will there be diesel at a price customers are willing to pay to ship it to stores? And will the customer have gas to get to the stores that actually have each food item on their shelves?

      For want of a nail….

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        And how will any industrial machinery, much less vehicles, operate without lubricants? To do so without would damage any machinery so there goes manufacturing.

        Reply ↓
  15. Retaj

    I picked up some oil at my Walmart enough for two oil changes. Shelves still looked stocked and the rollback was on. I have been using synthetic which extends the time between changes.

    Reply ↓
    1. Wukchumni

      Sauntered into Home Depot for some bar chain oil, which is under lock and key these days, so i’d purposely brought a metal cup to run against the steel cage to make my point that, yes, I’d like something…

      An associate heard my plea and asked what the commotion was all about, and I calmly stated, 3 containers of chainsaw bar oil, kind sir, and he dutifully picked them out of confinement, but wouldn’t let me take them away on my own recognizance, and had to escort me to the cashier with my gotten gains.

      Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        After he gave you the first container, did he make you say ‘Please, sir. I’d like some more.’

        Reply ↓
        1. Carolinian

          LOL. I bought oil at Walmart without pleading, Here I think there is plenty in the pipeline but, as with Covid time, the hoarding will start once word gets out.

          Reply ↓
          1. ambrit

            The hoarding has already started here in the Rancid Underbelly of the North American Deep South. The motor oil shelves were noticeably thinner than usual, (compared to the past two or three years, by age addled memory.) The “Price Rollbacks” were still in effect though. Auto oil filters, and air filters, though were almost non-existent. The “bankruptcy” of Fram parent company First Brands has had a major impact on WalMart automobile item stock.
            First Brands bankruptcy: https://www.hemmings.com/stories/the-collapse-of-an-empire-how-the-first-brands-group-bankruptcy-is-reshaping-the-auto-industry/

            Reply ↓
      2. JonnyJames

        I stocked up on 0-20 synthetic motor oil for about 5 oil changes, bought at Costco in Ukiah, CA. No shortages as of a couple weeks ago, but Ukiah is not exactly a big city. It’s in a county with only 80k population

        Some say if you store synthetic motor oil in a cool dark place it will last indefinitely. Mobil says 5 years unopened. https://www.mobil.com/en/lubricants/for-personal-vehicles/auto-care/all-about-oil/ask-our-auto-experts/shelf-life-of-unopened-mobil-1-quarts

        Reply ↓
  17. Socal Rhino

    The Tinsdale piece was excellent. Gulf conflict aside, good insights into how mineral extraction is changing as the best deposits are depleted.

    Reply ↓
  18. Ann

    Not Just a Moral Crisis, Israel Is Now a Political Liability for the Democratic Party Democrats appear unable to grasp how dramatically public consciousness around Israel has shifted.

    https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/israel-democratic-party

    US aircraft carrier returns home after record deployment that included Iran war, Maduro capture

    https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/16/politics/ford-iran-war-venezuela-maduro-record

    Taiwan won’t be sacrificed, US arms sales a commitment, president responds to Trump

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-independence-means-we-dont-belong-beijing-president-says-2026-05-17/

    Israel to establish defence offices in former UNRWA East Jerusalem compound

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-establish-defence-offices-former-unrwa-east-jerusalem-compound-2026-05-17/

    Reply ↓
    1. EY Oakland

      Thank you Ann for all of your links. Re ‘Not Just a Moral Crisis’ – the dems want to be able to grasp as much AIPAC and big donor money as possible – that’s their dilemma and what is influencing their votes.

      Reply ↓
  19. Lefty Godot

    If Wilkerson is correct, that means all the Special Forces moved to theater have become mere threat display and camouflage for the main event.

    Would “stationary targets” be another term for them? Are they sitting in Kuwait and Jordan trying to look fearsome now? The only thing allowing any of the Empire’s assets to feel comfortable at this point is that Iran has to hold back on the One Bad Thing they can threaten to do if proportionate retaliation fails to dissuade their enemies. But killing assembled US troops does not qualify for being that (probably not even sinking US ships–destroying Saudi and other regional oil infrastructure is a lot closer to being It).

    Reply ↓
  20. Shom

    Recall those news items from right after the ceasefire was declared re Pakistani forces to the tune of ~50K being moved to Saudi Arabia; it seems the Kingdom was planning on “playing both sides” from back then and needed more muscle. Who better to call on to help “play both sides” than the Pakistani Army, who are intimately familiar with the concept when it comes to US/China/USSR forces?

    Also, UAE might pettily decide to attack SA if Iran is too formidable and SA is standing back. Gotta keep them in line too.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post author

      The UAE had a dustup with the Saudis over Yemen. Didn’t work out well for them:

      Friction escalated openly by late 2025, culminating in Saudi airstrikes on December 30, 2025, against the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces at the Port of Mukalla. These strikes halted the STC’s rapid territorial advances in southern and eastern Yemen, leading to its official dissolution on January 9, 2026. While these setbacks are notable for the UAE, Abu Dhabi does not view them as conclusive. This suggests that Yemen will remain a contested theater in the emerging Saudi-Emirati “cold war,” which will significantly influence regional dynamics, despite the U.S.-Israel-Iran war taking attention away from this rivalry for the time being.

      https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/saudi-arabia-uae-yemen/

      Reply ↓
  21. Jason Boxman

    Maybe it’s because I live nowhere (I still consider western NC in the southeast though), but I was just at AutoZone the day before that thing hit Twitter; The manager thought I was talking about the tariffs when I asked about shortages and costs. He wasn’t aware of what’s going on with lubricants.

    Make of that what you will. I have no doubt we’ll have an uneven rollout of shortages throughout the economy as this progresses. But it wasn’t in evidence at AZ here this week past.

    Reply ↓
  22. Mikel

    “A massive explosion struck Beit Shemesh, Israel, at a facility operated by Tomer, the state-owned defense company that develops and manufactures rocket propulsion systems for several Israeli missiles and rockets, including the Arrow long-range missile defense interceptor.” pic.twitter.com/71bDHdLOXt — Egypt’s Intel Observer

    Until there’s more info…
    This could be an attack by deregulation (or ignoring regulations). Just as likely they’re cutting corners and trying to speed up production with safety going by the wayside.

    Reply ↓
  23. Anthony Martin

    Primary topic of chatter at the coffee shop and the pub: the cost of gas. Wonder what would be the results if reporters got off their twitter feeds and if they interviewed shoppers at Costco. e.g. what do you think about the cost of chees and hamburger?

    Reply ↓
    1. JohnH

      When the talking heads start talking about the price of gas we’ll know that Trump is in trouble. My impression is that so far it’s not much of a concern among the chattering classes or among pollsters. It would not be the first time that people pretending to discuss public concerns reveal themselves to be totally out of touch.

      Reply ↓
    2. Paradox of Unrealized Power

      I spend my time in cafes instead of pubs; instead of cost of gas, I hear complaints about rent and food (and, of course, coffee, but that is selection bias). However, these are short-term complaints. At the rate we are going (and I think it is irreversible at this point), the real shock over the next 24 months will be just how astonishing the drop in living standards will be.

      And given my age, I’ll just throw in this cheap shot: Now that the boomers are finally leaving the work force and showing the bare minimum decency to finally start dying after f!@#ing up our entire society beyond repair, it is nice to know that they somehow manage to leave one last parting gift of ensuring that succeeding generations have absolutely no hope of even living as well as their grandparents. Thank God they managed to screw up the medical system to at least guarantee they don’t stick around another couple of decades.

      But I digress…

      Reply ↓
      2. EY Oakland

        The problem is not just with boomers. Humans are mainly moved by their beliefs and we’ve all (wherever we are, whatever country we live in) been taken in, mostly, by whatever is the accepted “narrative” – in essence ‘trained’ in how to see the world – and so our beliefs, whatever they are, have been shaped. Now being of a certain age, I’m able to note, that mostly we humans can only really ‘see’ what’s in the rear view mirror. That is a major problem for our species.

        Reply ↓
        1. JonnyJames

          I don’t find superficial Identity Politics helpful in any serious analysis of politics, it’s a distraction. The media love to push this garbage “boomers, genxers millenial genz blah blah” is part of that: divide and rule tactics. Blame the boomers, not the oligarchy. Blame the lazy GenZ or whatever, ignore the institutional corruption and criminality, lack of meaningful careers etc.

          Reply ↓
          1. skippy

            Generational labels started as a – marketing tool – which pigeonholes decadel cohorts across vast spans of time and space. It then got used to label various ideological or other political views along with consumer tendencies aka a post marketing study in behavioral[tm] economics i.e. how good is the indoctrination working.

            At the end of the day is all about incentives [.] Its there that humans are shaped, so who is shaping and why.

            Reply ↓
  24. ciroc

    Yesterday, I watched a video interview with a former Revolutionary Guard commander. He was furious about the news that the U.S. and China had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran should make the decision, adding that the country has no intention of accepting interference from any foreign power, including China.

    Reply ↓
  25. Doggo

    Thank you for posting the Anthony Blinken video. This needs to be spread far and wide, because there are still too many brainwashed lefties clinging to their tribal thinking that Drumpf is bad, but surely Democrats are good.

    I’m seeing a lot of this type of memeing lately. It goes like, Netanyahu and Israel have been lobbying USA to attack Iran for the last 40 years, and they finally found a president dumb enough to do their bidding… Drumpf! Um, I hate to break it to you lefties, but previous administrations were also fully bought and paid for by Israel. Including Democrats. Blinken’s nickname was “Netanyahu’s Lawyer” for crying out loud, and this nickname was given to him while he was secretary of state. Israel told USA to attack Iraq and it did (confirmed by Larry Wilkerson who was Colin Powell’s chief of staff). Israel told USA to attack Syria and it did. And on and on.

    Of course I don’t wanna single out lefties for being brainwashed, because in many ways the right wingers watching Fox News are even MORE brainwashed. Just keep in mind Ron Paul’s sage observation: “Americans are the most brainwashed and propagandized people on the planet”.

    Reply ↓
    1. JonnyJames

      Speaking of “lefties”, back in the olden days, the left were radical, pro labor types who were willing to arm themselves at the picket lines and take fire. Not to glorify violence but people were killed on both sides during labor unrest back in the 19th and 20th centuries. The left used to be closely associated with the anti-war movements as well. Back then, the “radical” left advocated social revolution and the overthrow of the bourgeois, capitalist government.

      Nowadays, so called radical lefties (aka “compatible left”) don’t care about traditional labor- left issues, they have become another faction of warmongers who perpetuate the illusion of choice, perpetuate the myth of US democratic choice. They also play a key role in the divide-and-rule tactics of now-ubiquitous Identity Politics: your race, gender, sexual preferences, and generation are the focus of political discourse and used as an emotional distraction from hardcore socioeconomic issues.

      There is no such thing as the “left” in US politics anymore, with only a few very rare exceptions,

      Reply ↓
      1. JohnH

        When I came back from Venezuela 10 years ago, I discovered that the “left” in the US has totally forgotten leftist language and can’t frame its arguments in leftist terms.

        Reply ↓
      2. A Little Bird

        This was an intentional shift. The CIA and later the NED spent a LOT of money on a breathtaking array of projects to move the needle from class based broad movements with power to individualistic grievances. One of my favourite examples is the huge amount of money they poured into abstract art, because they saw it as weaponizing western ideas against the “Soviet” style propaganda. Not only did they buy a lot of the works, or encouraged the right people to buy them, they founded journals and kept critics on their payroll.

        You can also see what the company called “free” trade unions. Union organizers at the time were mystified by where their less radical rivals were getting all their money, now we can see that pretty much every trade union in North America at least is completely captured by industry.

        You could go on and on and on with this but my point is if you were useful to this project of undermining collective organizing, you got the money. If you undermined *their project what you receive is humiliation, defeat, harassment, maybe someone chucks you out of a window…. Etc.

        There is a good series that came out in the eighties I think you can watch on YouTube called “inside the company” a lot of which is based on Phillip Agees book of the same name, in which he is heavily featured.

        In the hopes I will not be denounced as a tinfoil hat I’ll also add the spooks were just one front of this. Many different levers of society had to be pulled for this to be achieved. Corporations have an outsize role that isn’t necessarily appreciated. Americas gilded class has had their thumb on the scale for a very long time; it was primarily corporate lawyers and business insiders who created the cia to begin with.

        Reply ↓
        1. JohnH

          I imagine that college professors helped lead the charge against truly liberal language and talking about distribution of wealth and income. Economics students can’t get tenure without being published, but the top five journals serve as guardians of orthodoxy. Undesirable leftists need not apply.

          The same is true about discussion of the real impact of monetary policy during the 2010s…the “wealth effect” got downplayed while the benefits to workers got hyped. The real impact was that bankers and Corporate America restored their profits within a few years after the Great Recession. Asset prices soared, benefiting mostly the Top 10%. Meanwhile workers; real wages got restored to pre-recession levels only after most of a decade. Yet among liberal macroeconomists the narrative centered around benefits to workers! How disingenuous!

          I got banned from an economics blog hosted by a member of NBER for pointing out that his university Economics and Public Policy web pages and curricula barely mentioned inequality. It was almost as if inequality was not an important public policy issue! He was offended and claimed to be proud of his record on inequality, though he couldn’t cite almost anything as recent examples!

          Reply ↓
          1. A Little Bird

            I imagine that college professors helped lead the charge against truly liberal language and talking about distribution of wealth and income. Economics students can’t get tenure without being published, but the top five journals serve as guardians of orthodoxy. Undesirable leftists need not apply.

            Exactly, universities are a whole other discussion but very much a part of the same project. Dr. Aaron Good has talked a lot about how difficult his educational path was because of his interest in the deep state, but I don’t think you need to take such a granular view. Just look at how Reagan killed off the free colleges in California to prevent a “dangerous educated proletariat”; that was GOV Reagan, the fix has been in for a long time.

            Reply ↓
      1. ambrit

        News Flash.
        Persons inside the Administration, speaking anonymously due to not being qualified to speak publicly on the subject, have revealed that the Department of Defense has opened talks with representatives of the Prince of Darkness to gain access to the Infernal Realm’s limitless supplies of Brimstone, from which sulfuric acid can be extracted.
        Infernal Functionaries have intimated that proprietary Hellmouth Portals can be established anywhere within or without reason to supply limitless amounts of Brimstone for “surface dwellers’ sulfur needs.”
        Infernal Realms Spokescreature J J Angleton stated: “Trump and his Coven are perfect ‘partners’ from the viewpoint of the Infernal Realm. They possess all of the low qualities required for successful Devil’s Deal making. We look forward to an eternal and fruitless association.”
        Some business expert observers have cautioned though that this deal carries some “downside risks.” Eternal da—-ion comes to mind.
        We are all so neoliberalized. Couple this with the shortage of lube developing and a “rough trade” in commodities is to be anticipated.
        Now that I think about it, weren’t Sodom and Gomorrah also involved in the Brimstone trade way back when? How did that work out? I wonder if the investors ‘made bank’ on that trade.

        Reply ↓
  27. curlydan

    In more nuke news, this time from the UAE:
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/drone-strike-causes-fire-outside-103419723.html

    “The UAE Defense Ministry said three drones came over its western border with Saudi Arabia, with the other two intercepted. It was investigating who launched them. Iran and Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq have launched drone attacks targeting Gulf Arab states in the war.

    The $20 billion Barakah nuclear power plant was built by the UAE with the help of South Korea and went online in 2020. It is the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world and can provide a quarter of the energy needs in the UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms that is home to Dubai.”

    Reply ↓
    1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

      What makes either country believe that Iran will be willing to stop or cease fire this time around?
      More to the point, what does either country hope to achieve from a “renewal” of this war? Do they really think that Iran will accede to maximalist demands at this point? Or even minimal demands??

      Reply ↓
  29. Ignacio

    Today i see in the Zionist El Pais not one but two main “anti-Irani regime” articles. Is this coincidence or pre-attack rationale planting? Just in case, nobody knows with which leg the orange furore will get up tomorrow.

    Reply ↓
  30. nyleta

    Caspian Sea cargo turnover is up 84% March to March, it can only have increased since then. Capacity probably depends a fair bit on Volga River flows. The whole Volga system of natural and industrial waterways is increasingly important in defence terms with sanctions.

    Reply ↓
  32. Ann

    In Iraqi Desert, Two Israeli Outposts Were Kept Secret for Months

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/world/europe/israel-iraq-iran-bases.html

    Trump advisers fear China may target Taiwan in next 5 years

    https://www.axios.com/2026/05/17/trump-xi-summit-china-taiwan-invasion

    Marjorie Taylor Greene describes a “reign of terror” against those seeking full transparency on the Epstein files.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/one-time-maga-queen-says-trump-is-picking-off-enemies-one-by-one/

    Massie’s primary is the most expensive in history. Pro-Israel groups have played a huge part.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/17/massie-aipac-record-spending-israel-maga-trump-primary-00925375

    Reply ↓

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