[This Iran war post launched before complete yet again. Please come back at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
The latest Trump move to try to keep himself at the top of news reports1 was to double down on his rejection of the Iran response to the latest US demands. As you likely know well, Iran told the US to pound sand via a mild rewrite of its existing position. We’ll turn in due course to increasingly signs of opposition to the war as economic and military costs escalate, critically from elite sources: the Financial Times in a long and well-documented lead story, and top neocon Robert Kagan (co-author of Project for the New American Century) via his article, Checkmate in Iran in The Atlantic. To whet your appetite, his subhead:
Trump is yet again threatening kinetic escalation, but his signaling is predictably misleading He is acting as if what Chas Freeman has called a ceasefire with Israeli characteristics is the real deal and preparing to scupper that:
President Trump said Monday that the ceasefire with Iran is on "life support" after the "garbage" response Iran sent the U.S.
"It's unbelievably weak, I would say," the president told reporters during an event in the Oval Office when asked if the ceasefire remains in place. "I… pic.twitter.com/AuVl0Xj60x
— CBS News (@CBSNews) May 11, 2026
On the ceasefire, Bloomberg is in Schrodinger’s cat mode, that if the lid has not yet been opened, the cat might be alive. That is a conveniently investor-soothing view to take:
NO1’s news summary reports otherwise:
Iran-US ceasefire collapse: Trump called Iran’s counter-proposal “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” and a “piece of garbage”, put ceasefire “on life support”, met with generals Monday, and is considering reactivating Project Freedom (military escorts through Hormuz). Iran’s Parliament Speaker responded: “Our armed forces are ready… they will be surprised”. US Navy deployed nuclear-armed submarine USS Alaska through Gibraltar. Iran deployed combat-ready mini subs in Hormuz.
However, pretty much every competent Iran war commentator agrees Trump is not likely to do anything before he returns from his summit with Xi, so Bloomberg’s cheery posture given the givens is likely true for the near term. It is remotely possible Trump could launch over the weekend, but it seems more likely he would wait another week. The delay would harm the ability to engage in any sustained ground operation, such as trying to seize and hold….something. But the US looks to be readying an massive air attack, throwing everything but the kitchen sink into the fray.1
However, if you look to the entry on the lower left, Bloomberg the notion that there could be a “peace deal.” We and many others have said there will not be one. Chas Freeman and Robert Pape, in two fresh updates, say the talks are dead. Both discussions are worth your attention since they come from very different vantage points.
Freeman gives a fine one-stop overview of where US-Iran (and related China) matters stand now. He stresses a key point that the mainstream media refuse to acknowledge, that negotiation are not happening. Smoke signals at a distance are not negotiations.
Freeman puts a stake in the ground as to where this is going. From a mildly-cleaned-up machine transcript:
I think we can see as I said where this is all going to end.
First of all, it will end with some sort of reconciliation between the Gulf Arabs and Iran, which involves the removal of the American military presence from the Gulf. The United States has proven unable and unwilling to defend the Gulf Arabs against Iran.
The bases on their territory have become targets rather than uh defense assets for them. And so that is clearly unfolding.Second, I believe Iran will remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz. That is in development because it contradicts 263 years of Anglo-American maritime supremacy and the rules established under that, including those in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea which declare that straits meaning bodies of water, narrow bodies of water, that connect the international waters, in this case the Persian Gulf inside it and the Arabian Sea outside to the Gulf of Oman. These cannot be obstructed according to the UN convention. Now they are obstructed. That rule was established by first by British sea power after the defeat of France in the Seven Years War in 1763.
The baton passed of maritime hegemony passed of the United States in World War II in March of 1943 with the Battle of the Bismark Sea. And this is over now.
Land-based missiles, artillery if you will, can now strike at huge distances.
Um the history here is interesting because it began with the range of cannons in the 18th century which was 3 miles. So a ship that came within 3 milesi of the shore was in danger of being struck. That limit was overtaken by events and of course now we have the ability to strike ships at a distance of 2,000 km or 1500 miles or at least with drones within a 300 km or 200 mile limit. So we’ve seen we’re we’re watching the decay the fall of um a fundamental element of global order as of this war. So that’s another result.
The third result will be that while Iran uh will tighten its repression of its citizens in response to their suffering from continuing sanctions, those sanctions are becoming ever less effective. I think they will continue, but the world will be less and less respectful of them and American power to impose unilateral sanctions which are illegal under the UN charter but nevertheless have become a common place will decline. So American power in the financial sector, since this is all based on the control of financial transactions will have a way.
But finally and perhaps most consequentially a war that is now justified as aimed at ending Iran’s nuclear program has galvanized its nuclear program. Iran is almost certain to develop nuclear weapons and the delivery. the means to deliver them first to Israel and ultimately to the United States. It will follow the path in other words of North Korea in response to the maximum pressure to which it has been subjected.
So we end up with a a a world in which Iran is still sanctioned. It still controls the Strait of Hormuz. The American military presence in the Gulf is gone. Israel is chastised but not defeated and Iran has a nuclear weapon. This is not what those who started the war wanted to see come from it, but it is where we are headed.
Robert Pape, by contrast, contends that the negotiations ended last weekend. He depicts US at a very dangerous escalation inflection point.
Pape makes a key points: that the dispute between the US/Israel and Iran is over sovereignity. First, these are zero-sum matters. Second, if Iran concedes on any, that sets up further concessions, since Iran will be weakened by its preceding retreats. Pape does not say so directly, but this makes Iran’s “maximalist” positions entirely rational. Third, Iran has come to regard these matters as existential (having another state openly seek regime change and bomb the shit out of you when it failed would tend to do that).
Now to the increasingly visible opposition with the ruling classes to Trump continuing the war. First from the Financial Times, in a a lead story.3
Please take the time to read this long and well-substantiated indictment in full. Key sections:
Donald Trump’s Iran war is ripping across the US economy at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars in lost output, as soaring fuel prices, rising borrowing costs and supply chain snags erode Americans’ prosperity….
The Pentagon has burned through years’ worth of costly missiles and air defence interceptors during the conflict, which it says has been the primary driver of its $25bn estimate for the cost of the war….
While defence boosts output, economists say the money would be better spent on education and infrastructure, which have higher so-called “multiplier effects” and a greater impact on Americans’ prosperity.
…The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supply flowed prior to the war, has pushed up US petrol prices by more than half to $4.55 a gallon, marking the most severe fuel shock of any G7 economy.
Diesel — a vital input for America’s industrial economy — has risen by a similar margin to $5.66, just shy of its all-time record of $5.82.
As of Friday, American consumers had paid an extra $35bn in petrol and diesel costs since the war began, according to Brown University’s Watson School of Public Affairs. That equates to about $268 per household or about the cost of a week’s groceries….
Jet fuel, meanwhile, has risen by more than 70 per cent, driving up the cost of airfares and placing huge strain on the airline industry….
In late February, before the conflict began, investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut US borrowing costs by a quarter-point twice this year….
Wolfers estimates the Fed’s inability to cut interest rates by half a percentage point will have a substantial hit. “That one channel alone adds up to about $200bn worth of lost output,” he said.
Higher rates are also costing would-be American homeowners dearly. The average 30-year mortgage rate — the industry standard — is now 6.37 per cent, up from 5.98 per cent before the conflict began….
Shortages in some raw materials are beginning to emerge, while the costs of shipping metal containers around the world at short notice have jumped.
“Even the Transatlantic from North Europe to US East Coast — which does not call at Asia transshipment hubs or Middle East ports — short-term freight rates have surged 56 per cent from end-February,” said Peter Sand, of shipping data specialists Xeneta. “The crisis is still very much present — it has simply migrated from the regional to the global level.”
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said this week that, despite the shocks of the Covid era, many manufacturers in his industry-heavy district were still heavily reliant on “just-in-time” delivery…
Economists expect a roughly six-month lag until the higher costs of diesel translate into a noticeable rise in grocery prices, with perishable goods such as fruit, vegetables, meat and seafood, which rely on refrigeration and rapid distribution, likely to lead the way….
The hit from diesel is set to be compounded as farmers shell out on higher fertiliser costs. The price of nitrogen fertiliser, much of which is produced in the Middle East, has risen more than 30 per cent since the war began, which could curb crop harvests over the coming year as farmers cut back on fertiliser, shrinking food supply and driving up costs.
The impact of the Iran war on food prices is expected to be less than what followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a critical agricultural supplier to the world. Grocery price inflation surged to more than 13 per cent in August 2022.
Still, economists warn it is the latest blow to a sector that has been rocked by Covid, the Russia-Ukraine war, tariffs and the impact of immigration policies on labour supply, each fuelling inflation for US consumers. Food costs have risen about 30 per cent in the past six years.
Another waring on the economic front in from Saudi Aramco’s CEO from Sputnik (hat tip Robin K):
The global oil market will not return to normal until next year unless shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz resumes within a month, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said.
“The longer the supply disruptions continue, even for another few more weeks, it is going to take a much longer time for the oil market to rebalance and stabilize,” he said during a video conference to discuss Aramco’s first-quarter results.
The crisis could last until 2027 if the impasse in the Strait continues until mid-June, he added.
According to the head of the world’s largest energy company, the market, which has lost a billion barrels of oil due to a lack of production or transportation, will continue to lose approximately 100 million barrels of oil each week as long as the strait remains closed.
More on oil shortages:
BREAKING: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve released last week >1.22 million barrels a day (~8.6 million for the week).
That's the largest ever weekly release, surpassing the peak rate seen in 2022 when President Biden tapped the SPR after Russia invaded Ukraine.
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 11, 2026
And oil shortage knock-on effects. From Business Insider Oil shortages are even hitting colored snack bags
Now, even potato chips aren’t safe from the global petrochemical squeeze.
In Japan, snack giant Calbee — known for its popular potato chips — is switching some colored snack packaging to black and white after oil shortages linked to the Iran war squeezed global ink supplies, local media reported.
The culprit is naphtha, an oil-derived chemical used to make solvents and resins for printing ink. Naphtha is also a key ingredient in plastics, packaging material, and adhesives. Prices for the material have surged amid the conflict in Iran.
In recent weeks, companies including toilet maker Toto and Panasonic have warned of delivery disruptions and price hikes tied to naphtha-based materials.
We can’t say often enough how much production and distribution will suffer if the plastics shortage becomes acute in parts of much of the world. Japan looks to be the canary in this coal mine.
Another confirmation of pain at the US consumer level from Breaking Points. Eurodollar University was all over signs of budget stress revealed by the actions of food companies and fast food chains before the war and more so after:
We had also warned that the West Coast was more exposed to the oil crunch than other parts of the US. That issue is getting more traction:
To another sign of rising opposition among the power to the Trump Team Iran train wreck: due to the archiving sites being down now, we can only directly quote the opener of the Kagan article. But that alone is a doozy:
It’s hard to think of a time when the United States suffered a total defeat in a conflict, a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored. The calamitous losses suffered at Pearl Harbor, the Philippines, and throughout the Western Pacific in the first months of World War II were eventually reversed. The defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America’s overall position in the world, because they were far from the main theaters of global competition. The initial failure in Iraq was mitigated by a shift in strategy that ultimately left Iraq relatively stable and unthreatening to its neighbors and kept the United States dominant in the region.
Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was. With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world. The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished. Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started. That is going to set off a chain reaction around the world as friends and foes adjust to America’s failure.
More from the article proper via Simplicius:
At least Kagan has the right historiography on Trump’s panicked brakes on the Iran bombing:
The turning point came on March 18, when Israel bombed Iran’s South Pars gas field and Iran retaliated by attacking Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest natural-gas-export plant, causing damage to production capacity that will take years to repair. Trump responded by declaring a moratorium on further strikes against Iran’s energy facilities and then declaring a cease-fire, despite Iran’s not having made a single concession.
Kagan goes on to rightly identify Trump’s no-win position—even if he tried to go out “guns ablaze” in an effort to save face for the prestige-blown US military, it would lead to nothing more than disaster:
Even if Trump wanted to bomb Iran as part of an exit strategy—looking tough as a way of masking his retreat—he can’t do that without risking this catastrophe.
If this isn’t checkmate, it’s close.
Kagan then spells out what US’s defeat will look like in practice, worthily noting that Iran no longer has any incentive to let go of the strait even after the war’s conclusion:
Defeat for the United States, therefore, is not only possible but likely. Here is what defeat looks like.
Iran remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz. The common assumption that, one way or another, the strait will reopen when the crisis ends is unfounded. Iran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante. People talk of a split between hard-liners and moderates in Tehran, but even moderates must understand that Iran cannot afford to let the strait go, no matter how good a deal it thought it could get. For one thing, how reliable is any deal with Trump? He all but boasted of replicating the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by approving the killing of Iran’s leadership amid negotiations. The Iranians cannot be sure that Trump won’t decide to attack again within a few months of striking a deal. They also know that the Israelis may attack again, as they never feel constrained from acting when they perceive their interests to be threatened.
He correctly notes that Iran will now collect tolls from the strait in perpetuity, and most countries will be forced to play to Iran’s hand one way or another, because they witnessed first hand the US Navy being exposed as incapable of shifting the calculus in any way.
The power to close or control the flow of ships through the strait is greater and more immediate than the theoretical power of Iran’s nuclear program. This leverage will allow the leaders in Tehran to force nations to lift sanctions and normalize relations or face penalties. Israel will find itself more isolated than ever, as Iran grows richer, rearms, and preserves its options to go nuclear in the future. It may even find itself unable to go after Iran’s proxies: In a world where Iran wields influence over the energy supply of so many nations, Israel could face enormous international pressure not to provoke Tehran in Lebanon, Gaza, or anywhere else.
The point above is rich: he cries that Israel will be unfairly—it is implied—“pressured” to not continue illegally genociding Lebanon and Gaza because Iran will have grown too powerful.
Mind you, I do not to suggest that Kagan can move the needle, but that his piece demonstrates that an important faction of the neocons is speaking out openly about the Trump clusterfuck. Articles like this accelerate the de-legitimation of Trump and the war.
Robert Kagan’s Atlantic article, admitting the US having been defeated by Iran, while symbolically significant, is not a game changer.
For reasons I won't speculate on, Kagan has had a major change in his declared worldviews. He just recently said that US/Israeli alliance is to…
— Majid Hosseini (@m4h007) May 11, 2026
I hate to relegate two fine talks to so late in this post, since they cover a lot more than just their immediate relevance, which is the contrasting view of what Kagan was trying to achieve. Each is worth a listen if you have time.
Wilkerson in this segment is the source of the factoid provided at the top, that US is moving pretty much its entire air force into theater to bomb Iran. On Kagan, he argues that he wrote the Atlantic piece to outrage the Iran hawks and provoke a redoubling of US/Israel effort.
This is a very good double header, with Professor Mohammed Marandi followed by Max Blumenthal. Marandi reaffirms that the Iranians are not budging and calls out misinformation as generated by the Trump Team. Blumethal is particularly strong on the bad state of play in Lebanon and the significance of the Kagan article calling out the US loss in Iran. Blumenthal argues that Kagan has long been a Trump opponent, so his Atlantic article is not as much of a surprise as it might seem. Blumenthal argues that Kagan is of an older (perhaps one might say realist?) neocon school, which I take to mean the US should stay strictly focused on its big power rivals, as in Russia and China
Finally, some topical levity:
We are not bullies; we are anti-bullies. pic.twitter.com/P9fcVIlf6V
— Iran Embassy in Zimbabwe (@IRANinZIMBABWE) May 11, 2026
Done for today. See you tomorrow!
____
1 Trump failed. See the landing page for the BBC international edition. No Iran war at all above the fold:
2 Donald Gorbachev points out that a second 7700 call from a F-35 in mere days was from the same aircraft. He explains why this is seriously Not Good, as in it represents a maintenance failure. Recall that F-35s are fragile and fussy and require a ton of servicing between flights. Gorbachev argues that this is a sign of the US overtaxing its weapons. This already looks to be happening with AWACS which the US is now critically dependent upon to back-fill for the loss of radars at the tender hand of Iran.
Do click through for the details:
§ VI. SAME AIRFRAME TWICE IN TWENTY-FOUR HOURS
Tail 13-5067 squawked 7700 in this AOR on Day 72. Tail 13-5067 squawked 7700 in this AOR again on Day 73. Same airframe. Twenty-four hours apart. Both on the public tape. Both landed. The maintenance cycle between Day 72 emergency… pic.twitter.com/e65jyMZ8VH— Donald J. Gorbachev (@donaldgorbachev) May 11, 2026
3 I regard the Financial Times weighing in, which is what this story amounts to, as more consequential than it might seem. The US edition of the Financial Times is the pink paper’s biggest profit center, which means the US editor, Gillian Tett, has a lot of clout. The Financial Times has managed to displace the New York Times in being able to secure exclusive interviews with world leaders and have them run opinion pieces in its Comments section. This may at least be in part due to the Financial Times being perceived to have a particularly influential readership and also running somewhat wonkier pieces than the Gray Lady.
I know Tett personally. She was an absolutely top notch reporter as capital markets editor in the runup to the 2008 crisis. I had been disappointed to see her occasional pieces now that she is US editor (which does not afford her anywhere near as much time to be on top of bona fide information) as much more political, as in being just a hair ahead of what I call leading edge conventional wisdom. But her demonstration of a finely-tuned sense for power dynamics strongly suggests that Tett herself thought it was important for the paper to take a stand against the war in this way.
175 comments
Comments are closed.
WTI crude is now over $101. Brent back above $107. The entire Axios move got unwound in less than a week.
I wonder what these evil men think they’re accomplishing by lying? Sure, there are the short-term ill-gotten gains for friends and family. But out in the real world, it did not even move the needle. Gas prices stayed high, the Midwest set a record for diesel yesterday. Now, Taco is trapped.
Link to energy prices:
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Also, I was remiss in not thanking our host once again for another fine update. I appreciate the FT.com embed. For some reason, archive.is and .ph are down for me right now. I tried to archive a link and it just sits and spins (sort of like Karoline Leavitt.)
The fact that the FT takes a stand against the war because it is bad in economic terms, and not because of it being an illegal war of agression waged by two genocidal countries just shows the moral degradation of the West. Why can no editor clearly call it what is is? I saw an interview by Glenn Diesen of Sergei Karaganov who is strongly recommending that Russia send Mr Oreschnik to visit Western elites and I was in absolute agreement with him. The Western elites and their lackeys need to be extirpated:
How Russia will Win the New World War
While I can understand your frustration, this was a reported story, not opinion, and at a financial newspaper!. Your demand is not reasonable for a reported story. Of course it is going to focus on economic consequences.
This video today, in Links, Why Are Americans So Bloody Stupid? discussed how critical thinking has collapsed in the US:
The reaction of one of my correspondents to it:
You are unwittingly exhibiting that behavior.
Now there were legitimate beefs in terms of framing and priorities. I was appalled that it covered interest rate costs before it turned to higher food costs and shortages. Investors clearly count for more than the public at large.
another source for oil prices –
https://oilprice.com/
A rephrase: “Why no FT editor can clearly call it what it is just shows the moral degradation of the West.” The bloody stupidity includes the monstrosity of confining analysis of death mongering to today’s declining profits. Does the FT not anticipate the financial pain of war because that would be offensive to profiteers?
The adults you wish in charge are bloody stupid also.
It most assuredly discussed financial pain. See the part about interest rates.
The NY Times allowed Wolfers to squeak, “War is hell. And hell comes with a hefty price tag.” War is crime. Is there a credible reason that a financial newspaper cannot confirm this war is an “illegal war of aggression?” Is it not a tell that FT does not?
This is straw manning, which is a violation of our written site Policies.
1. Wolfers did not say ANYTHING AT ALL like “illegal war of aggression”. He just said war is costly. That is consistent with the picture painted by the Financial Times, albeit in a catchier and more pointed manner.
Get it through your biased head that this was a neutral position on the belligerents and in NO WAY a legal or moral condemnation.
2. I am confident that New York Times has similarly not called the Iran war an “illegal war of aggression” in any reported story.
speaking of editorialising, the pink paper(why is it called that?) made sure to follow the style guide regarding ‘russia’s full scale invasion”…but had no flashy triggering adjectives for trumps idiotic attack on iran.
the former was an act of malevolence, i guess…while the latter just sort of happened.
It’s called ‘the pink paper’ because it’s printed on… pink paper. The website kind-of simulates it.
It’s funny, if you do a search for ‘the pink paper’ (I’ve never heard that about FT before) the main results are for:
The Pink Paper was a UK publication covering gay and lesbian issues published by Millivres Prowler Limited in paper form from 1987 to 2009 and online from 2009 to 2012 when it ceased publication.
I am obviously not calling out this story in particular for not decrying the US/Israeli illegal war of aggression on Iran. I do know the difference between a news item and an editorial.
The Financial Times has printed editorials on the war on iran. I did a search for “war of agression” and the closest match I got was this pathetically weak The second world war fixation gets the US into trouble again
The FT even has an LGTB+ section and a Life & Arts section that appears prminently in their header so I am not being unreasonable to expect them to cover the Iran war from a social interest point of view and for them to be able to take a clear stand on the morality of this war.
This is ground-shifting, which is bad faith argumentation and a violation of our written site Policies. This site’s stated mission is to promote critical thinking and so we expect readers to adhere to principles of valid argumentation.
Your original comment was most assuredly a complaint that a REPORTED article did not take an editorial view you liked. Finding that the editorial page does not advocate positions in no way rescues the fact that your original comment held the article to a bogus standard.
Fair point, I’ll do better and apologies for wasting your time.
Thanks!
And to be fair, what major news outlet in the west has presented the Iran war in an objective light? It aint just FT. As prof. Marandi would say, the Epstein Class-owned media are all in on demonizing Iran (as well as the other “enemies” of the US govt). Demonize Russia, China, Cuba etc. The BB Bloody C as well.
Even “progressive” or “left” media outlets are pushing falsehoods and bias about the “Iranian regime” (See DemocracyNow for example, and the Guardian is even more warmongering). The brutal Iranian regime massacred peaceful protesters, jail human rights advocates (eg. Narges Mohammadi) and brutally repress women’s rights etc. The Guardian has an article about Mohammadi even today. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/may/12/nobel-laureates-call-iran-release-gravely-ill-activist-human-rights-activist-narges-mohammadi
Meanwhile, they all refer to the “Gulf states” (not family dictatorships), and US vassals) as if they are independent, democratic, neutral actors who have great human rights records. They forgot about the KSA horrific humans rights. Decapitation with a sword and sometimes crucifixion are still used as capital punishment. Brutal regime indeed
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_Saudi_Arabia
Watching that Al Jazeera video on California’s dependency on heavy crude emanating from Hormuz, its as if a shortage is baked in and i’m looking to make bank off of long lines of drivers going nowhere fast, by announcing the on line launch of Gasrobics & Petrolyoga. (not a Russian woman’s name, btw)
‘Give me 10 more, now 9 more, now 8 more energy molecules, feel the burn!’
Oil price predicted to remain above $100 for rest of year
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgp4ev4yg4o
Diesel at a station in central coastal CA in the last week was $7.89 and the lowest I saw was $7.49. That hurts.
Should make it easier to get a good campsite reservation this summer. That is, assuming people do the polite thing and cancel their existing reservations.
a fella with a pallet of water, an ice chest and a dolly or something to lug it around with could prolly make bank in those lines….or breakfast tacos, etc
I’m thinking about the vendors who used to – maybe still do – troll the waiting lines at the Customs And Immigration
BottleneckBorder Station north of Bellingham….Re:
Seems like they’re just buying the dip after each Axios move. Family and friends slapping each others’ backs.
They don’t give a toss about “out in the real world”.
A great chart would be Trump pronouncements/Axios regurgitation laid over oil futures. The half life of jawboning is getting shorter and shorter.
Israeli regime change watch:
From https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ultra-orthodox-faction-said-pushing-to-dissolve-knesset-over-haredi-draft-law/
Israel is in its way at least as ridiculouy dysfunctional as the US, despite its ruthlessness.
I post these updates on the Israeli election and coalition status because regime change in Israel especially if it’s a coalition without Likud and the Kahanist parties as seems increasingly likely, combined with the open admittance by Netanyahu this week about no more us military aid long term, means we are getting close to a state change (no pun intended) on the Israeli fronts of the war which may significantly impact the gulf front
I count maybe 40-50/120 seats in a possible left-secular-center coalition. I asked an Israeli friend and he was just despondent and had no opinion. I don’t see the needle moving much but you have a better feel for the situation. Until just checking now, I didn’t realize how dead Labor is.
Posted a comment in yesterday’s thread that Ra’am (Arab/Islamic party) is willing to join coalition with non-likud, non-kahanist parties which may be enough given the number of people polled who voted for Likud last election who are unwilling this time . The orthodox party bringing down the government over conscription is significant for any Israeli -led war on any front at this moment because electioneering will halt any real operational escalation until a new government is formed. Remember it took 5 tries to hold a coalition last time and now the Kahanist bloc simply does not have the backing to reprop a similar coalition in the current mood
I stopped trying to follow the evolution of the party landscape in Israel years ago. Too many parties, some created for an election and disappearing at the following one, some splitting from other parties, other merging; even the minority Arab parties constitute their own mosaic.
Because of that fragmented political environment, I do not manage to figure out what are their fundamental, genuine ideological differences — especially since all (Jewish) parties abhor Palestinians, loudly cheer operations against all possible enemies (in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, Syria…), and have no qualms with the genocidal policies of Netanyahu’s government.
Just an aside on political systems:
The US, with one (two-faced) party ends up with the worst governance in the history of government.
While Israel, with a myriad of parties, new, coalition governments formed after each election, also has the worst governance in the history of government.
Do I have that right?
More detail- they are starting the process on Wednesday:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/haredi-factions-back-dissolving-knesset-increasing-chance-for-early-elections/
And
If Netanyahu has to spend the next three months keeping the Knesset from being dissolved and electioneering, just how much major escalation on any front can be done? In the current climate there is zero guarantee that a resumption of missiles from Iran would result in rallying around Netanyahu as leader. He can’t force through the haredi exemption to keep the coalition together without risking another coalition member dropping (Gideon Sa’ar’s party maybe) or major issues with the IDF (I said a while back that a military coup or removal was possible if not likely if the defeat was too bad and Netanyahu refused to step down without a pardon).
All done! Early arrivals, please refresh the page and re-skim.
The United States is not agreement capable, this will be true even if Vance replaces Trump because it is a structural problem.
Regular at $6.70 per gallon at a Chevron Station in Santa Rosa yesterday.
Even if the Epstein War ended tomorrow Sonoma County is going to be in big trouble economically for years.
The lines at Costco must be causing gridlock at this point. No?
The lines at Sam’s Club don’t seem longer, and may even be shorter. I assume this is the start of the demand destruction we’ve heard so much about.
Costco not always the cheapest in a region – here in Michigan it appears that cheapest gas is in a small town in the middle of the mitt and the UP which i don’t understand why – and Detroit 20 cents cheaper than Ann Arbor –
c’est la vie
https://www.gasbuddy.com/
Those lines are already causing gridlock with 2¢ savings!
Got gas at COSTCO Sunday. They had employees in parking lot directing traffic! Never seen anything like it,
If you can manage it, I’ve found the best time to get Costco gas is on weekday mornings after rush hour but before the main store opens.
I live on the Mendo coast, you are practically a neighbor Tom. If you ever drive up 101 toward Ukiah, the Coyote Valley casino has a gas station where it’s the cheapest anywhere: 5.59 for reg. Whenever I drive inland from coast, I fill up there. I guess the Indian reservations pay less fuel tax and pass on the lower price. (I don’t gamble, but you can gamble while you fuel up)
“Regular at $6.70 per gallon at a Chevron Station” – Same price here in Berkeley.
What is also impacting us here are the cuts to Fed grants at UC Berk and the police desire to have FLOCK cameras everywhere. We got a delay in more cameras for a year, but I expect the police are anticipating “student unrest”. In general the city is less radical because of gentrification. Time will tell how it goes.
Something stirred a memory reading about the looming gas, diesel and jet fuel shortages so a hat tip to Robert Heinlein’s short story “The Roads Must Roll” here. As supply really starts to fall apart, at what point does the government pass a law saying that the government has first priority over diesel and jet fuel? Left to its own devices the markets would burn everything down so cannot be trusted. But diesel fuel is a critical necessity as it is used by trucks delivering food to supermarkets as well as tractors needed to grow actual food. Since you cannot print diesel, some sort of rationing system will become necessary sooner or later so that the delivery of things like food and medicines can be kept up. Otherwise you will be left with the distinct possibility of food riots.
There’s always the possibility of the descent into a Mad Max situation…
I think it was Professor Hudson who said that Herman Kahn (the inspiration for Dr. Strangelove) thought a nuclear war would be survivable, but it would not be a world he would want to live in afterwards so he hoped to be right under the first bomb if such a war broke out. This fuel crisis will hopefully not be as destructive as all that…
The living will envy the dead were Kahn’s precise words.
I thought they were Krushchev’s.
I lived and worked on a Strategic Air Command base, a few years around 1980. Less than 2 miles to alert facility.
We said the same thing!
Think Tank Memories: But Herman said he wanted to be right under the atom bomb. He didn’t want to live in that kind of society, but he said at least you could have a survival.
Thanks! I found the other passage I had half remembered from Dr. Hudson’s site:
“He wrote a book on thermonuclear war, saying that even if there were to be a war, somebody would be left to survive. That made him one of the models for Dr. Strangelove in the movies. I would sit and hear Herman talk about military strategy, and was awed by how he thought it all through. He was a brilliant military tactician. He would bring me and sit down with generals, and they would explain things. I don’t have a good military sense, or any military training at all. He wrote that, personally, he wanted to be right under the first hydrogen bomb. He didn’t want to live in the post-nuclear world. But there would be some survivors somewhere. That made him notorious. ”
https://michael-hudson.com/2022/06/economic-rent-and-exploitation/
Diesel is also vital in maintaining the roads upon which trucks and etc. must travel to deliver whatever.
Keeping roads maintained and usable includes snow and ice removal as well as grading and smoothing unpaved roads, keeping gullies cleared, fallen trees removed. Repair crews when power outages occur and on and on.
In short, if we’re gonna live the way the system has designed for us we gotta have diesel.
A shortage of diesel will greatly hamper wildfire fighting efforts. Expect massive out of control forest fires exacerbated by a super el-nino this summer.
Aiee, correct.
I mentioned on here a day before the LA Infernos broke out last year that something wickedly hot this way comes was gonna go down in SoCal, as all the conditions were there for a disaster, no rain since May, bone dry conditions and Santa Ana winds only in search of a spark…
We have the same scenario-but different about to unfold in the west, probably along the lines of the Big Burn of 1910, but much more widespread.
p.s.
Much firefighting is now done via airborne assault, Av gas shortages could also be a factor~
Worse. Most firefighting aircraft are “jets” (turboprop if fixed wing, turboshaft if helicopter.) I think jet fuel has more issues than aviation grade gasoline…
More Think Tank Memories: The drought was seen as doubling or quadrupling grain prices. In essence, the idea was for America to pay for higher priced oil with higher priced grain. This would support the balance of payments enough to finance U.S. military power throughout the world. In the process, of course, it would starve as much as a quarter of the population of Africa and Latin America.
A sane government that exerts at least some authority over the economic elite would have enacted a number of measures already. For example, capping or banning certain exports, forcing refiners to sell internally at fixed prices, demand management (either via prices or outright rationing), etc. As I recall, the Chinese and the Russians both did some version of this at least a few weeks ago.
The US, with a government that has been completely hollowed out by >40 years of aggressive neoliberalism, even ex-Trump and his coterie of (largely) incompetent idiots, is not going to do any such thing. The concept of – squeeze the oil industry to save the other 95% of the economy – simply does not compute. Similarly, the concept of – maybe we should not set our internal product prices off international oil markets rather than internal supply-demand. “Because-markets-go-die,” in all its glory.
What I would expect is that AFTER actual shortages materialize, there will be noise in the sense that “someone” should do “something”, some tepid action at the state-local level, and possible knee-jerk spasms from the White House in place of a coherent response to try and keep the lid on things. Though at the same time, I highly doubt “food riots” will really be a thing, at least, at the lower pain levels.
A sane government would have initiated massive hemp production (like they did during WWII) but instead of clothes and rope, it would have been oil, plastic and paper.
(With apologies to Nietzsche, but with the same sentiment): the Government is dead; we killed Him.
Honestly, there is something interesting here: rationalism and secularization also led to Liberalism and its neoliberal offspring. Enlightenment did in Government as it did God and we are left adrift and confused (without actually realizing we are adrift and confused in a way).
What may well happen in the case of vehicle fuel scarcity are wood gas generators.
The New Zealand Govt. has announced a staged response to potential fuel shortages, (we have to import 100% of the stuff) with a last-ditched Stage 4 in which petrol (gas in the US) and diesel will be restricted to emergency services, agriculture and food distribution.
However the relevant Minister said she was confident Stage 4 would never arrive as New Zealand was ‘a rich country’, the implication being (I presume) that New Zealand was rich enough to buy a comfortable seat in one of the Titanic’s lifeboats.
Trump as an emanation of U.S. culture. You recall that I was skeptical of USAnians diagnosing Trump as a narcissist, for the simple reason that narcissism is so common in the U S of A.
Now I’m seeing a side of the negotiations that is all too familiar. Negotiating to negotiate to negotiate …
This: “It’s unbelievably weak, I would say,” the president told reporters during an event in the Oval Office when asked if the ceasefire remains in place. “I would call it the weakest, right now, after reading that piece of garbage they sent us.” Then Trump claims he couldn’t even finish reading the document.
This is a syndrome in the U S of A. A friend of mine from Amsterdam and I were talking about USAnians in restaurants. And laughing as she described a U.S. friend and her behavior.
Restaurant scene. The not-so-simulated dialogue goes like this:
Waiter: Our special today is the bacon cheddarburger on a rye bun with sweet-potato fries.
Going around the table:
#1: Could I have that with a gluten-free pork shop instead of the bacon?
#2. Can I get non-dairy scalloped potatoes instead of the fries?
#3. I’m going on TripAdvisor right now about this waiter’s attitude…
#4. Someone at the next table is wearing perfume. Can you tell her to leave? I’m allergic to scent.
And so it goes: It is no accident that Trump is surrounded by a bunch of yes-men and yes-women. They also share certain “cultural values.” Which are not translating well across the world, noting the Bloody Stupid Americans vid that Yves Smith posts in Links. (There is a whole genre that the Rev Kev introduced me to of “The Day I Knew the U S of A Fecked Me Up” vids posted by expats — dozens of videos.)
Trump is no accident. The combined wars against Russia, against Iran, and the destruction of the Palestinian people are not chance events. What is to be done?
Re: “The Day I Knew the U S of A Fecked Me Up” vids
If somebody doesn’t mind posting a link to get started on these, I for one would happily watch a few.
Can do. Here is Part 1 of the series ‘First Time You Realized America Really Messed You Up’-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1yT8swtVvg (9:42 mins)
Not sure if it’s on that video, but I find the ones about sick days particularly poignant.
*New American Employee “So I get paid sick leave?”
*European HR “Yes, you do.”
*New American Employee “How many sick days do I get?”
*European HR “If you’re sick, don’t come to work.”
*New American Employee “Yes, but how many times?”
*European HR (baffled) “Every time. Don’t come to work if you are sick.”
*New American Employee (frustrated) “I understand that, but I need to know how many sick days I’m allowed.”
I can so attest to this. I moved to Ireland in October of 2000 via inter company transfer. I asked that same series of questions. That Christmas, 2 months later, I was told that the company closed down for Christmas week. Having no family, and having not made friends yet, I thought it would be a great time to work on the test lab. I told my boss of my plan, but after a back-and-forth with him that became increasingly insistent (both of us), he finally just had to look me straight in the eye and insist “you’re NOT coming in.”
Then there was the whole concept of “Irish Time. . . “
Depending on the country and the social security system it implements, there may be very good reasons to prevent employees from coming to work on holidays.
Generally, an employee gets an insurance covering accidents occurring when at work, on work trips, and trips to / from work. Such an insurance may exclude coverage for the days where one is formally not supposed to work, i.e. official holidays, except when explicitly commandeered by the organization. By prohibiting you from coming to work on Christmas / year-end holidays, your superior was possibly also trying to avoid trouble in case something happened to you at a place and time you were not supposed to be.
Disclaimer: all this depends very much on the country, social security (and the distinction it makes between professional and non-professional accidents), and even type of work contract. If you are in a line management position and have an employee asking to work at odd days / times, first check with HR before granting an authorization
Fair point, one I didn’t think of at the time. I’m no longer in Ireland but I seem to recall that only the 25th (Christmas), the 26th (St. Stephen’s Day . . . With a rose, natch 😁), and New Year’s Eve and Day were official Holidays. But my boss forbade it. Could have been other HR-esque reasons too.
But as an American worker, the whole environment required much adjustment on my part. It took me 4 years to stop eating lunch at my desk, another year to go to breakfast with everyone else, and almost 7 years to finally take the tea break.
It took only 1 year to notice how annoyingly loud Americans talked in restaurants!
After noticing how loud American tourists are, when I was living in UK some 45 years ago, i determined their twist on Descartes was “I am loud, therefore I am”
A young US couple whom I socialised with explained to me that if you weren’t loud you were ignored.
Here anybody working for any part of certain protected holidays (like Christmas Day) is legally entitled to double pay for the full day plus an extra day’s holiday in lieu.
The (presumably intended) effect is that companies are careful to ensure nobody works on that day unless they have an extremely good reason.
I work at a major public univ in US (West coast) and we too are banned from working over Christmas week–and we have to use vacation days to cover the days that aren’t official holidays.
Waiter: Our special today is the bacon cheddarburger on a rye bun with sweet-potato fries.
Now I’m hungry….
It’s not just in restaurants, either, nor is it a recent phenomenon (though some of the specifics have changed – what the familyblog are “non-dairy scalloped potatoes???”). I used to wander around Itaewon just people-watching and it was easy to spot Americans by how they’d act and treat shop owners.* The Russians, over in Tongdaemun, were far more polite.
*bought a small chess set I didn’t really need from a lady who’d just suffered through an absolutely miserable time with an American. Chatted with her a bit during the sale, got her to smile. Not sure I repaired the damage, but at least made it seem less bad.
I believe you! We were really sending some of our worst people to the Yongsan base. In my experience, it was a lot of alcoholic 19yo guys with their first paychecks.
FYI, they closed Yongsan recently and relocated everyone to Pyeongtaek. Itaewon just ain’t the same… But at least the kimchi pots remain in Haebangchon
Yongsan? YONGSAN? That was Eighth Army, where all the Big Brass hung out, and was relatively nice and relaxed compared to the Wild West that was Camp Casey and Tongduchon! (I know, apparently it’s supposed to be Dongduchon, but I’m too lazy to look up the Hangul and TDC was what we thought of it as).
It was nice to see Yongsan go back to the Koreans, though – that was some of the nicest real estate in town!
The funniest part, though, was having been stationed there in 1981, going BACK in 1997 and seeing what a difference 16 years made.* It had apparently, among other things, been turned into an accompanied tour so that GIs could bring their families into artillery range of the hostile North Korean Army boys.
Gone were most of the GI Town features and it seemed … weird. Even at night.
*did an editorial for the Korea Times on the difference and got 50 bucks from Mr. Kim for my efforts… :-)
I stopped traveling anywhere because of medical problems, but 10-15 years ago I did some traveling in Asia and Holland. Let me share some anecdotes about traveling and American military personnel.
In Asia, I have been asked on three separate occasions if I was affiliated with American military. Three times seems like an unusually high number. I have zero experience with American armed forces, and I stated as such each time, not giving much thought to the questions. Much later, I thought, “Wait a minute. Is that question a complimentary or derisive question? Or just a coincidence? Do I exude American aura and stereotypes? I sure hope that these are indirect compliments for being in good shape.” The American military is a symbol of tyranny and oppression (and likely more so today than decade or two before), and I would be upset if I caused anybody any discomfort just by being there. The question near Tokyo was understandable because there is at least one military base outside the metropolitan area. Similarly, a hotel clerk in Hong Kong asked me if I was US military. I did visit the American embassy in Hong Kong, but how would she know that? Besides the embassy, does the US have a military presence or spies in Hong Kong?
In Holland, I was visiting various Dutch tourist traps (windmills, canals) on a mostly empty Wednesday morning. While I was pondering all the Dutch culture I was absorbing, a large number of US army reserves from a nearby American military base in Germany suddenly joined my canal tour, shattering the tranquility of the canal and my thoughts. Those soldiers were obnoxious! All they did was gossip about sex, alcohol, and innuendoes over Dutch coffee shops. Unsurprisingly, they used a lot of obscenities and never talked about military affairs. The Dutch probably spoke better English than these soldiers.
My thought when my partner negotiates changes to menu: “let’s go home, and you can cook for us”.
We’ve been together over 20 years and does it all the time.
What is to be done?
Iran is doing it! Not much is being said about Iran’s demands to release occupied Palestine and Lebanon from IDF perpetual terror.
Going to be a deep depression if U.S. continues to fund IDF genocide.
Trump has no clue how deep Iran can depress economies.
Imagine they want US to suffer like Gaza.
Trump needs to go home and cook his own Big Mac.
The assassinated Ayotollah’s son ain’t a waiter.
And that scene likely unfolded in the midst of the ongoing Pandemic.
I hate this timeline.
Well, defeat in a world war had an effect in Germany and Japan.
“However, pretty much every competent Iran war commentator agrees Trump is not likely to do anything before he returns from his summit with Xi”
All competent Iran war commentators need to take a stroll down memory lane to the 1st trump Xi meeting. Not saying it would happen but it is a similar situation
“This already looks to be happening with ACAWS, which the US is now critically dependent upon…”. I believe you meant AWACS.
Yes, fixed, thanks!
Obviously Iran is going to have to rebuild relations with the Gulf states in the coming years. After all, they are all near neighbours. But there is one possibility that might happen. So what happens if Iran rebuilds relations with all the Gulf states – except for the UAE? I can see the Saudis quite happy about that prospect, especially since the UAE is an Israeli outpost as well as a competitor. The same might be true of the other Gulf states as well. It might get awkward for the UAE to be outside an informal pact of Gulf state countries and even more so when you think that Iran is one as well.
This is essentially what Larry Johnson was saying yesterday: reapproachment with KSA and Quatar, then some small fry–but NOT UAE.
Iran Sues US at The Hague over Nuclear Facility Attacks, Sanctions, Threats
I just saw this on Tasnim news.
The URL is just below but I have off and on trouble getting through so I pasted the article below
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/05/12/3589169/iran-sues-us-at-the-hague-over-nuclear-facility-attacks-sanctions-threats
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iran has filed a lawsuit against the US at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for attacks on nuclear facilities, imposition of sanctions and threats of use of force.
The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran filed the lawsuit at The Hague over the United States’ “military aggression against Iran’s nuclear facilities”, “imposition of economic sanctions” and “threat of use of force”.
This lawsuit was filed in the Iran-United States Arbitration Court, based on the provisions of the 1981 Algiers Declaration and due to the US violation of its international obligations in the 12-day war against Iran in June last year.
In its petition, which has been registered with the Court of Arbitration under the title of Case A-34, the Islamic Republic of Iran, citing the first paragraph of the Algerian Declaration, while explaining and describing the instances of the US’s violation of its commitment during the imposed 12-day war, as well as the imposition of economic sanctions and the threat of resort to force, has requested the Court to condemn the United States of America for violating the first paragraph of the Declaration and to require that government to immediately end its direct and indirect interference in Iran’s internal affairs; and to provide a guarantee that the aforementioned violations will not be repeated, and to fully compensate Iran for the damages caused.
Based on the first paragraph of the Algerian Declaration, the US government has committed not to interfere directly or indirectly, politically or militarily, in Iran’s internal affairs.
Kagan on DEFEAT: I smell a book. Could be a Francis Fukuyama, Daniel Bell moment. The Empire trounced…all over the lefty inter-tubes. The reactionaries must be shocked and awed. Will there be op-eds in the NYT and the WaPo? Will the Neocons double down? Stay tuned as the elephants clash.
Don’t be surprised if there is a demand by those very same people for a $2 trillion war budget to Make America’s Military Great Again (MAMGA). As everybody knows, if you throw enough money at a problem, then it will go away.
I doubt Kagan needs to sell books. I would hazard that his rate to give speeches is at least $100,000.
But if you are suggesting that he would like more media attention, yes he can clearly get a big publisher to buy a book and commit to a book tours, which assures a lot of TV too.
I was invited to one of his speeches 20 years ago, I can’t remember the fee charged. My boss said we would not have to pay the fee, but I declined anyway on matter of principle. I guess I’m not professionally mature enough to stomach listening to him, or his wife.
At this point it seems insanely negligent that the Trump administration hasn’t at least called for voluntary efforts by businesses to make more of their work force remote work from home as per the pandemic. While it doesn’t solve all of the problems with closing of the strait, but it would help with the oil shock and help preserve the oil reserve which wont last long (less than a year at the current draw down rate).
When your administration is stuffed to the gills with real estate developers, mortgage shysters, and land barons, everything becomes an opportunity to grift. Let’s keep packing ’em into shiny towers downtown – who cares about the consequences!
Howard Lutnick got caught in a monster of a lie last week, in testifying before the House, he disclosed that 1 Gold Card had been sold, not the 1,000 he had claimed prior.
Is that a benchmark for the administration in that they are .999 fine in terms of precious mettle content?
I thought that the bigger lie was told by Trump to all those people who paid a $100 deposit to get one of those golden mobiles of his. Looks like not only will there be no delivery of those golden mobiles but Trump is keeping their deposits as well. They should have remembered – all that glitters is not gold.
Benedict Donald certainly has the Midas Touch, albeit in reverse.
True that. Everything that he touches turns to s***.
A new application for the term “enshitification”
I’d say it all depends on which side of the finger you’re on. His “failures” continue to stuff his pockets.
Ah yes, enshitification for us, massive looting for him and his cronies. The abuse of power, corruption and kleptocracy are so flagrant, yet few notice.
Whatever happened to the “emoluments” clauses in the constitution? Oh silly me, the constitution is “just a goddamned piece of paper”
Oh, come on! Those high prices are temporary and will be lower by year end. He even said they would “drop like a rock” once the war was over on May 11: https://www.wral.com/consumer/trump-gas-tax-suspend-prices-may-2026/
That proposal to suspend the gas tax is a great example of how the only move they have is to steal from the future, to keep the present from being a little less awful.
Wee little problem – the revenue from the federal gas tax is used to fund the highway fund. So no gas tax, and lots of projects will come to a screeching halt. No repaving, road repairs, bridges, etc.
Unclear at this time whether the Donkeys will play along, but even if they do, it sets us up for a summer of rage.
more deterioration of the USDOT highway system…also under this agency in 2026 severe cuts to the long-standing Federal Recreational Trails program, …which is funded by estimated fuel tax receipts from recreational users of federal lands/parks…(estimated at $1.3T in 2024).
USDOT freezing billion’s/$ of allocated grants for trails/walking/bike path’s….as they were “inconsistent with the priority of moving motor vehicles”…
“What do they need roads for, the people never go anywhere anyway….”
Quoting from Zorro, the Gay Blade.
Wilkinson is right. Kagans piece has thrown the gauntlet down. Trump has no choice but to escalate. It will mean big losses but could create circumstances in which Trump could declare a full-scale war and cancel the mid-terms. We need people on the streets.
“declare…war and cancel the mid-terms” – have read this many times as a possibility but even during WWII elections were not suspended – where is the precedent?
There is no precedent because, as been pointed out many times here and in other places, elections are state-run and Trump cannot “cancel” them.
Now some nationwide calamity requiring the declaration of martial law … but that would essentially be a coup, and that’s a different can of worms entirely.
question was rhetorical – there is no precedent, of course – and there was an election during WWII that reelected FDR – and declaring martial law without cause would be a coup, imho –
There was also a famous election in the middle of the US Civil War. It was the votes of the Union soldiers to continue the war that gave Lincoln victory.
Robert Kagan!!
What a despicable, hypocritical Washington creature. Seeing the likes of Kagan – or John Bolton or Bill Kristol or other anti-Trump neocon warmongers – give us their “analyses” of why Trump lost to Iran is about as disgusting as it gets. That it appears in The Atlantic only enhances the sickening effect.
I stumbled upon an excellent reaction to Kagan’s article by Arnaud Bertrand. First, he shows how each of Kagan’s key points as to why the Iran conflict represents such a catastrophic historical defeat for the US was raised earlier by Bertrand himself (and other critics), often using nearly identical language. This leads Bertrand to conclude: “So, yup, Bob Kagan and I agree on nearly everything. I need a shower.”
But then he goes on to note that there are still some fundamental differences in their respective views on the subject:
“First of all, arguably the most important one, the moral aspect. In typical neocon fashion, his article contains not a word about the human cost of this war – not the 165 schoolgirls, not the devastation inflicted on Iranians during 37 days of bombing, not the toll this war is taking on the entire world through its devastating economic consequences (the economic devastation on ordinary people worldwide is referenced only as a political problem for Trump). For him, this is purely a strategic chess problem, morality and people don’t figure in his mental map…”
“Secondly, there is not an instant of reflection in the article on how we got there. Which is unsurprising because he personally, alongside his wife, his brother, and every co-signatory of every PNAC letter, spent a generation pushing for exactly this kind of confrontation. The man spend 30 years advocating for military dominance in the Middle East and hostility towards Iran, thereby forging them as an adversary and facilitating this very war that he now says has “checkmated” America…”
“Last but not least, we differ on what should be done. This is the funniest part of Kagan’s article – showing that the man is decidedly beyond salvation. On one hand he calls this a “checkmate” by Iran, and a U.S. defeat that can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” yet an the other hand his solution for it is… surprise, surprise… a bigger war still! … He writes that what’s to be done is “engage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold.”
“The arsonist’s solution to the fire is a bigger fire.”
Perhaps this is Kagan’s motivation, as Max Blumenthal suggests. Whatever he (and the Atlantic) hope to accomplish, they are both decidedly beyond salvation.
https://arnaudbertrand.substack.com/p/americas-chief-warmonger-says-the
Good start on the tip of an iceberg.
The Kagan article seems very significant. Looking back over America’s elective wars, it seems like everyone comes around on the endless war not having been a great idea, but years after the fact. This war is barely 60 days old, and Kagan isn’t some alt-media guy speaking out. Also, if you consider the Ukraine boosterism and hype which has been relentless and univocal from the Establishment for 4 years, Kagan’s comments seem pretty significant. This war is pretty stupid, and the longer it goes, the worse the outcome for the US and the world, but respectable people in the foreign policy establishment aren’t supposed to admit it. This seems like the floodgates may be opening, and despite the efforts of the lobby.
As far as the massive ground war, good luck with that politically. You need 3x what was required for Iraq at a minimum and they don’t exist. Sounds like chapter one in the story of the birth of the Second American Republic.
Here’s a link to Andrew Bacevich on Robert Kagan.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/02/26/robert-kagan-wars-failed-because-americans-lacked-commitment/
The article features Kagan stating that Afghanistan/Iraq were “low cost”.
The photo of Kagan in the article could serve as a metaphor for the USA military, bloated and self assured.
Per Kagan, his advice is not wrong, Americans lack commitment.
Why is his advice still sought?
A sports team coach with his track record would be long gone.
I have not had a chance to watch the videos yet (got court this morning, so busy will happen), so I’m guilty of violating whatever NCR* covers “read the whole article first before commenting,” and I realize that pre-admitting guilt does not absolve one from the guilt, but I think I can phrase it politely…
I can’t wait to find out if any of today’s material – particularly the Chas Freeman video – covers, or at least touches on, what’s likely to happen to Israel after the US finally surrenders.
{popcorn}
*Naked Capitalism Rules. Like Oregon Revised Statutes (“ORS”) but with much stricter enforcement. ;-)
Xi Is Poised to Press Trump on Arms Sales to Taiwan
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/world/asia/xi-trump-china-taiwan-arms-sales.html
Hezbollah leader vows to never surrender, calls for Lebanon to withdraw from negotiations
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895900
Pakistan Let Iran Park Jets At Nur Khan Airbase To Shield From US Strike: Report
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-us-war-news-pakistan-let-iran-park-jets-at-nur-khan-airbase-to-shield-from-us-strikes-report-11481687
US in closely-guarded talks to open new bases in Greenland
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx21669452lo
US issues new sanctions over Iran’s oil shipments to China
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-issues-new-sanctions-over-irans-oil-shipments-china-2026-05-11/
A Russian ship sank in mysterious circumstances. It may have been carrying submarine nuclear reactors to North Korea
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/12/world/a-russian-ship-sank-in-mysterious-circumstances-it-may-have-been-carrying-nuclear-reactors-to-north-korea
‘It’s here’: Google issues dire warning after catching hackers using AI to break into computers
https://fortune.com/2026/05/11/google-catches-hackers-cybersecurity-warning-ai-anthropic-mythos/
To Kagan’s second quoted paragraph, i disagree, it was the Ukraine war that showed the US to be a paper tiger. This emboldened US antagonists, the current conflict is a continuation of that trend.
Assuming Freeman’s suggestion that no sherpa work has been done in advance of the Trump-Xi “summit” is correct–and I’ve seen nothing to suggest the contrary–then the visit is likely to be worse than useless and produce less than nothing. I don’t know what Trump thinks he’s going to achieve, but if the idea is somehow to put “pressure” on the Chinese over Iran, he will not only get nowhere, but he’ll actually wind up worse than where he started. You don’t invite someone to your country so that they can lecture you, and the visit is likely to make relations between the two countries worse. I assume that the Chinese will do what they can to give some structure to the visit to stop it degenerating into an embarrassing shambles, but it remains to see what they can do in the time available. One way to judge the outcome will be through the immediate output: a joint press conference would be best, then single press conferences, then a joint communiqué, after which you know it’s all gone to rats.
Yes, can people stop talking about “negotiations?” I know I’m repeating myself, but the strongest word I would use is “talks,” because there is nothing to negotiate about. If I wanted to buy your car but you sold it to someone else, then if we meet in the street we might “talk” but we are not negotiating. And I would also discourage the use of “escalation”: any attack Trump decides to make will be weaker and less successful than last time, by definition. It’s turning the volume down, because he has no choice.
There’s some business talent coming along with the Idiot, so the sherpa work and agenda might be theirs. I’m sure some commercial agreements will be concluded. Boeing needs to sell jets. China wants to lobby for eventual FAA approval of the Comac airliner. Also Tim Cook’s good bye thank you for the great technical engineering and manufacturing work done by the Chinese over his term as Apple poobah. Maybe geopolitics will stay in the background.
We’re all dancing around the obvious. What can Trump bring to China to “negotiate”?
Trump ‘tried to use nuclear codes but was stopped by military chief’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-tried-to-use-nuclear-codes-but-was-stopped-by-military-chief/ar-AA21nbUt
A certain willingness to wreck it all and and walk away saying “Iran did it, not me.”
One needs to understand, this is not a Trump “super power”, this is one of the American billionaire super powers: acquire it, wreck it, and walk away (normally with a big pile of loot). Not a good way for “the most powerful man in the world” to “manage” the world, but it’s pretty routine American billionaire behavior.
Tom and Daisy Buchanan. We’ll shoot Gatsby and pretend that justice has been done. Nothing changed in the past 100 years.
I wouldn’t dignify the jibber jabber going on with Iran as “talks.”
Same for “talks” between Israel and its victims…same for NATO/Ukraine and the US.
Talks with North Vietnam started in 1968 but didn’t get serious until 1972. As I recall, the negotiators in Paris just sat across the table from each other and looked at each other, though eventually some pleasantries probably surfaced about French wine and women.
(bold mine)
Oops.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/trump-xi-summit.html
One agenda item has already been announced:
Trump says he plans to raise Jimmy Lai imprisonment during China visit
Interesting. Jin is an ethnic Korean (Jin is Mandarin pronunciation of Kim.) While the share of Korean Chinese among Chinese evangelicals is fairly small, a rather large fraction of Korean Chinese are evangelicals with links to South Korea (and evangelicals in both countries do have Southern US roots–Southern Methodists were heavily involved in missionary activities in both countries.), although I don’t think his church has much to do wiyh US or SK…
I take it back: SK media has apparently been abuzz about this since last October and searching Korean media shows that he’d been interacting with Korean and Korean American evangelicals extensively for all his career.
Ironically, if I were Chinese government, this makes him even more suspicious than not….
I don’t know if galvanized is the right word. The Iraqi leadership was never super excited to develop an actual exploding nuclear device from what I understand. They may properly realize that the potential to develop a bomb makes them a much more important player on the world stage and gives them a huge bargaining chip when it comes to other things, all of which is correct in my opinion. They could certainly have developed nuclear weapons any time since the 1970s, as Israel did, if that were in fact something they put a huge value on.
The development of very accurate long-range missiles by Iran probably changes their calculations somewhat, since credible delivery systems are one of the elements of a functioning nuclear power. Nuclear weapons make more sense as something for Iran to have and hold then they did in the past. It gives them a powerful reposte to Israel, for one thing, which becomes more and more important every year as Israel foams at the mouth to a greater and greater extent. A country armed with nuclear-tipped longish-range missiles can increasingly consider tiny Israel to be one of those annoying dogs that’s all bark and no bite, which I think is going to save a lot of lives and eliminate a lot of suffering.
If Robert (Victoria Nuland) Kagan is correct, and we have suffered a defeat in the war with Iran, then perhaps there is a glimmer of hope. These armchair warlords have created enough mayhem in the world, and it is faintly encouraging that some of them are getting a whiff of reality.
The insanity of the current ‘military operation’ seems ultimately directed towards China. After all, Reichs Kommandant Hegseth has repeatedly warned us to prepare for “the coming war with China.” And why, one might ask, War with China.?” Because they’re beating us at our own game? It would be a most welcome breath of fresh air if someone, anyone, in our Administration would say, “Let’s prepare for deeply integrated cooperation with China, Russia, et al , to face the monumental challenges of Climate Change, and of course, the ever-growing threat of nuclear annihilation.”
We don’t have infinite amounts of time to figure out how to resolve the mess we’ve made of this planet, and we need to begin now. How this country has fallen under the sway of the psychopath in the White House will require deep soul-searching to prevent it happening again, but we’d better start now in finding some kind of leadership that cares about humanity, and not solely their portfolios. And if its the Democrats to lead the way (perhaps wishful thinking), please ask Kamala to stay away (that includes not trying to become the Gov. of California).
“Perhaps there is a glimmer of hope,” because the only language that the US and Israel understand is force…exactly what Ben Gurion said about Arabs.
“because the only language that the US and Israel understand is force”
I disagree: at least the USA is bilingual, since it also understands the language of money.
And the little hats aren’t?
It is pretty obvious that, for the right price, one can obtain whatever from US governments and businessmen, even if it goes against the rational interests of the USA. Trump and his cabal of relatives, accomplices, and other fellow travellers prove the point.
I am not at all certain that, even after paying them the price, the Israelis will deliver. But perhaps you have some good examples that can dispel my suspicions and confirm that they are truly bilingual.
Kagan has a sane, enlightened view on the US failure and defeat in the Iran war. But he hasn’t written any articles about the US failure and defeat in the Ukraine war, even after 4 years. As far as I know, it’s still we must fight to the last Ukrainian alive because we must destroy Russia. No mea culpa, no calls for realism. Why is this?
Oh he and his wife Victoria Nuland actually started the Ukraine war? Well then I guess rational analysis goes out the window when it’s your own personal pet neocon project.
re: FT article
Is it possible that the archived versions do not contain 2 of the 3 above graphics in contrast to the paywalled?
https://archive.is/LqFgX
Yves refers to the “US edition of the Financial Times”, as opposed to the one distributed in Europe.
Perhaps the difference comes from there — does anybody know how the European and North American editions of the Financial Times differ?
Trump vents over Secret Service removing ‘little boy’ JD Vance from DC dinner shooting faster than him
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-vance-shooting-little-boy-b2974975.html
Iran now defines Strait of Hormuz as far larger zone, IRGC officer says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-now-defines-strait-hormuz-far-larger-zone-irgc-officer-says-2026-05-12/
The First U.S. Presidential Visit to China in 9 Years. The Impact Goes Far Beyond Any Trade Deal
https://www.ebc.com/forex/the-first-u-s-presidential-visit-to-china-in-9-years-the-impact-goes-far-beyond-any-trade-deal
What will Xi do if he can’t stand the smell?
UAE sees rapidly growing trade with Syria, as ties warm
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-sees-rapidly-growing-trade-with-syria-ties-warm-2026-05-12/
Iran could enrich uranium to weapons grade (90%) if attacked, lawmaker warns
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-could-enrich-uranium-weapons-grade-if-attacked-lawmaker-warns-2026-05-12/
India, Russia in advanced talks on critical minerals pact, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-russia-advanced-talks-critical-minerals-pact-sources-say-2026-05-12/
Iran war to accelerate China’s shift to electric trucks from diesel
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-war-accelerate-chinas-shift-electric-trucks-diesel-2026-05-07/
Trump is at breaking point. His answer may be fresh violence
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trump-breaking-point-answer-may-fresh-violence-4412428
Need to get Americans to start referring to their increased expenses as the “Israel tax”, since that is what it is.
I do wonder if Xi’s people have not cooked up some face saving plan to get Donald out of his mess–China gets ships moving again through Hormuz, albeit with tolls for some and no Iranian permissions for others, the US Navy sails away, and US tacitly gives up Taiwan (which it can’t defend anyway, as all have now seen), China loosens up on rare minerals, and US lets China build car factories in the US.
My opinion is that a grand bargain is impossible under these conditions. Trump was supposed to be coming to China triumphant, after racking up a bunch of wins, taking over the Strait, deposing the IRGC, and replacing them with a bunch of supplicants willing to do whatever Blackrock and Kushner want them to. Remember, he promised the war would be over by Sunday, March 1st, in time for the futures to open.
Instead, he’s coming with a string of “Ls”. Why would Xi’s peeps bail this clown out?
Traitors all! He is going to China triumphant. You’re just watching the wrong “videos.”
It occurs to me that this is probably the content of his morning Iran briefings. That would explain…
“Oh yes, dear leader, the war is going most excellent! And please, don’t watch any lego videos!
Would be lovely. It does assume trump has agency in leaving, so far seems israel has called the shots.
Plus, hawks would shriek trump lost Taiwan as well as mid-east and oil control while maybe pissing off us big oil.
But you sure get my vote.
A sticker reading “‘Zionist War Tax: $2/gallon” on every gas pump?
A sticker (like the Biden one) of Netanyahu pointing at the price window with the caption “I did this.”
More tidbits of the oncoming lubricant shortages, this time from Costa Kapothanasis, the owner of Costa Oil company quick lube: Costa Kapothanasis twitter (May 11 2026)
also from him, a Toyota bulletin he links to with subsitution guidelines:
…going to run out of 0w20 soon…
Good thing I’ve transitioned from that weak sauce to 5w30.
A further clarification from a Reddit post about why the lighter viscosity oils will be in shorter supply than the heavier grades:
“ The higher viscosity oils are reliant on extremely expensive additives derived from group III base oil. Since the pearl GTL plant was taken offline thanks to 🤡, the world’s supply is constrained.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/Justrolledintotheshop/comments/1tbie81/comment/oli8inh/?context=1
Also: this discussion is about the US supply…not a foreign market!
About those too-well timed bets on price of oil:
Is T running a bucket shop ? / ;)
One thing I have found fascinating about Robert A. Pape is his analysis of the severe limitations of the punishment model of military coercion that he documented in his 1996 book “Bombing to Win.”
For Pape, at a more abstract level, a key assumption behind the punishment perspective consists of the idea that air bombardment leads to greater and greater pain, and this pain then leads to the necessary behavior change in your military opponent.
He argued that this type of air-bombing campaign (in the 39 of the 40 historical air campaigns since WWII), actually leads to a more cohesive military opponent in that it stiffens civilian morale and makes the regime even more aggressive and united.
For Pape, this is a key reason why US strategy is failing in Iran.
The end result is that, even though the US may have the strongest military power on the planet, it has failed to translate that military power into a successful coercive military outcome–getting Iran to do what it wants.
This punishment model of military coercion (as applied in Iran) now appears bankrupt.
” Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results.”
– quote attributed to Einstein and others.
Amusingly, the motivational industry can supply many inspirational quotes in support of insanity, I mean persistence.
A small sample:
“It’s not that I’m so smart, it’s just that I stay with problems longer.” Albert Einstein
“Energy and persistence conquer all things.” Benjamin Franklin
“Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up. Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is to always try just one more time.” Thomas Edison
“Permanence, perseverance, and persistence in spite of all obstacles, discouragement, and impossibilities: It is this, that in all things distinguishes the strong soul from the weak.” Thomas Carlyle
Source:
https://rickconlow.com/50-persistence-quotes-inspire-motivate/
an aphorism that my youngest son learned in headstart: “cant never could until try came along”
i thought it was wonderful, and added to the myriad aphorisms and quotes i carry around in me head.
indeed, my superpower is, apparently, patient endurance.
its how ive done all that ive done.
in spite of it all.
On the other hand: “Don’t be afraid of missing opportunities. Behind every failure is an opportunity somebody wishes they had missed.” Lily Tomlin
Well, I guess we can call Trump Herr Meyer amd feed him hats.
(NB: both are attributed to Goering–he allegedly said, if Brotish retaliate for bombing London by bombing Berlin or the Ruhr (I keep forgetting which was which), he’ll change his name to Meyer and/or he’ll eat his hat.)
I could’ve sworn Bibi was supposed to be visiting the White House this week, maybe yesterday, but Google insists his most recent visit was the one in February. How is he going to coordinate the next attack on Iran with Trump if the latter is swanning off to China instead? All those F-35s need to be used before they break down!
at times i think y’all want the ‘end-o-the-world.’ trump’s admin understood weeks ago, no ‘victory’ is possible, small or short term or otherwise. look again at the messaging: even bibi is backing down.
the damage has been done; america must accept itself as a lesser power one does not negotiate with. the ramifications of this will outlive our children.
what you do about your own societies, god only knows.
The American world I have lived in from birth has been one dominated by a genocidal bully that has been sucking all of the human goodness out of everything and everyone it touches. Yes, that world needs to end.
Iran War Leaks: Trump Handed His Acting AG A Sticky Note Saying “Treason.” Days Later, The DOJ Subpoenaed The Reporters Who Warned You.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/11/politics/trump-doj-subpoenas-iran-war-leaks
Trump Accuses Obama of Treason in Unhinged Crashout About Black People: ‘Trump posted multiple times implying that Black people are a public menace’
https://newrepublic.com/post/210294/donald-trump-accuses-obama-treason-crashout-racism
Head of Microsoft’s Israel branch to step down after inquiry into dealings with Israeli military
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/may/12/microsoft-head-israel-step-down
China and US agree on opposing Hormuz tolls, State Department says
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-us-agree-opposing-hormuz-tolls-state-department-says-2026-05-12/
Britain to deploy drones in Strait of Hormuz
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/05/12/britain-to-deploy-drones-strait-of-hormuz-iran/
Putin hails Russia’s test launch of new ICMB known as Satan II, calls it “most powerful missile in the world”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-test-launch-missile-satan-ii-calls-putin-worlds-most-powerful/
Moscow is hitting American businesses in Ukraine, while White House is not reacting
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/moscow-is-hitting-american-businesses-in-1778612089.html
US inflation jumped to 3.8% in April
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/12/us-inflation-april-iran-war
Trump Says He Doesn’t Care “Even a Little Bit” About People’s Finances
https://newrepublic.com/post/210325/trump-doesnt-care-even-little-bit-americans-finances-iran-war
Donald Trump Is Going For His Third ‘Dentist Visit’ This Year … And It’s Hard Not To Speculate
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-dentist-visit-health_n_6a034498e4b0eb62f9550a58
Mysterious Meddling in Democratic Primaries Has G.O.P. Fingerprints
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/gop-mystery-pac-midterms.html
Kuwait says Iran attacked an island where China is helping to build a port
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-uae-iron-dome-f3d5738853111cfc80985c157edab7c3
“US inflation jumped to 3.8% in April” Remember back in 2021 when inflation was taking off, and everyone, including the Fed, was shouting “transitory?” Then when higher prices stuck and rose more slowly, they all shouted, “we don’t have high inflation anymore, we just have a higher price level.” The electorate didn’t buy it…
It makes you wonder what marvels economists will come up with this time around to convince the public to not believe their lying eyes.
From the Ukraine story:
Folks, I believe the name for that is “insurance fraud.” Also, an attack that damages a facility is a material event that must be reported to investors for compliance reasons. I am sure that Coke and Cargill would never mislead investors … no, that would never happen /s
Trump Legacy? Nada. Trump Dynasty? Nada. Read my lips: No more inflation and no more foreign endless wars. MAGA. HA! HA!
I feel the end is coming sooner than later to the madcap charade party in power… and true to form, Galligula will likely blame the American people for letting him down-it’s what he does.
Trump to the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera:
“Italy was not there when we needed it, and I am considering moving our troops from Italian bases.”
Hmm. How does one say “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out” in Italian?
E chi ti ferma?
“And who’s stopping you?”
Vai pure, non sentirò la tua mancanza.
“Go right ahead, nobody will miss you.”
Era ora. La porta è quella.
“About time. The door is over there.”
vai via brutta …..
Y’all are way too polite. The version we use hereabouts: “Don’t let the door hit you where the Good Lord split you“. Rhymes better.
Haha. Yeah, I almost started with that one.
Maybe the Vatican can weigh in with a Pope-approved Latin phrase? ;)
From the FT article”Economists expect a roughly six-month lag until the higher costs of diesel translate into a noticeable rise in grocery prices, with perishable goods such as fruit, vegetables, meat and seafood, which rely on refrigeration and rapid distribution, likely to lead the way….”
So, November? I wonder about that. I think a majority of vegetables in the US come out of the Southern California and part of Arizona, IIRC. Which means trucks going long. Wonder if we will be looking back to now and saying we were living high on the hog then and took it for granted. Or no one could have known.
CIA escalates secret war on cartels with deadly operations inside Mexico
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/12/politics/cia-drug-cartels-deadly-operations-mexico
$1.5b Trump Tower deal on Gold Coast, Australia scrapped. Developer says the brand is “toxic”.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-13/trump-tower-gold-coast-plans-scrapped/106673096
Donald J. Trump Is Not a Member of the KKK—But He Sure Sounds Like One
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/donald-trump-kkk
If the US objective is actually to restore its dominance, and if the control of oil offers a lever to re-achieve it, the closure of the Strait is a win. It is possible that all the other bluster is aimed at prolonging the closure.
The recent numerous refinery and other oil infrastructure fires may indicate a low level deniable attack on global non-controlled production and distribution. After years of probing Russian and Iranian (and Chinese?) reactions to provocations, it may be that low level drone, missile, sabotage attacks can be mounted that do not tip into war. Meanwhile the cumulative effect may be the loss of production and distribution. Maintaining conflicts proximate to critical areas may help launch such deniable attacks.
Weak Europe in previous military affairs may think in the new they may be a superpower, specializing in drones and small missiles, with affordable budgets. Unless it really is Ukraine overflying the Balkans. The pestering of Russian infrastructure may be a new permanent feature. Similarly, any size rump Ukraine presents the same problem. How can Russia solve that situation? And how much provocation would it take?
This is to say Kagan’s loss may be a win. And one must ask then, what exactly is his position in the firmament, if any.
Trump, the man, who, acting on behalf of Bibi doesn’t care about US citizens’s fianances , continues to wage war on the lower classes with no end on sight. Winning winning winning ad infinitum
“The Kobeissi Letter’s Post
While April CPI inflation rose to 3.8%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities:
1. Energy Commodity Inflation: +29.2%
2. Gasoline Inflation: +28.4%
3. Airfare Inflation: +20.7%
4. Energy Inflation: +17.9%
5. Electricity Inflation: +6.1%
6. Fruits and Vegetables Inflation: +6.1%
7. Hospital Services Inflation: +5.5%
8. Motor Vehicle Repair Inflation: +5.1%
9. Apparel Inflation: +4.2%
This has driven cumulative inflation since 2020 to +29%, meaning goods that cost $100 in 2020 now cost $129 today.
Inflation remains a major issue for Americans.
Pentagon considering renaming Iran war ‘Sledgehammer’ if ceasefire collapses
The Iranians should state that if the US does this, then they will commence Operation Newton’s Third Law.
‘Make a choice’: Huckabee warns Gulf to choose between Iran and Israel
That doesn’t make sense. Shouldn’t that be that the Gulf has to choose between Iran and the US? The UAE is already being sidelined because of their allegiance to Israel. Also, Iran is their neighbour while Israel is a long way off. Huckabee should remember that he is the US Ambassador to Israel, not the Israeli Ambassador to the Gulf.
Because “iron dome” works so well for the Zionists… follow the UAE, painting an even bigger target on their territory.
What could go wrong?
The Iran war boosts Brazil oil export to China