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Iran War: Negotiations Deadlocked on Fundamental Issues as Media Keeps Up Happy Talk; Iran Promises Retaliation as US Still Coiled to Strike

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It has been frustrating to see the media, particularly Bloomberg, latch on to the thinnest shred of positive developments and present it as if it was representative of the state of play. We are seeing that continue as the US again attacked Iran during negotiations, albeit not as seriously before but still another demonstration of bad faith and bad intent, Trump alienates Arab allies by trying to push them into the Abrams Accords, and Israel doubles down on its attacks in Southern Lebanon. All of these are negatives for any negotiated settlement. Yet the orthodox press continues to portray the talks as making progress. That can be true if you equate activity to being progress.

Specifically much of the Western press is misrepresenting these Iran positions, which it has held and has not changed:

1. No discussion of nuclear issues now. Iran is insisting on sequencing, as in a cessation of hostilities, acknowledgement of it and Oman’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, freeing of at least some of the frozen assets in the first 60 days, and relief of sanctions of Iran’s energy.

2. Even though #1 means Iran is making no commitments whatsoever regarding the status of its enriched uranium, the most credible sources indicate it will not leave Iran (if there is ever a deal, dilution seems a more realistic outcome)

3. Iran also requires that $12 billon of its frozen assets be returned at the publication of the agreed memorandum of understanding. There is simply no way that will happen. Even though this demand is entirely reasonable form the Iran side, the US will choke on it.

Iran has also reiterated that it will not sign a partial “deal”:

Larry Johnson confirms this assessment in his latest post:

The Pakistan-Qatar mediation channel toward a possible memorandum of understanding remains active. But “active” does not mean “settled.” The unresolved center of gravity remains sequencing. The following is based on information I received from a knowledgeable source with access to the negotiations. It mirrors my analysis.

Washington and Israel want Iranian concessions first, while Tehran wants tangible, front-loaded economic and security relief before it gives ground on anything that matters. That is the heart of the present deadlock.

Iran’s position is not theatrical. It is rooted in a clear strategic doctrine: after decades of sanctions, pressure, assassinations, sabotage, and military threats, Tehran will not trade hard leverage for verbal assurances or a memorandum of understanding.

Promises are not enough. Mechanisms matter. Sequencing matters. Asset movement matters. Enforcement matters. The central judgment is this: Iran is not blinking…

The Nuclear File: Sovereignty Is the Red Line

According to a knowledgeable source, enrichment is not a negotiable bargaining chip. Tehran views enrichment as three things simultaneously:

1. A sovereign right;
2. A deterrence instrument;
3. A domestic legitimacy anchor.

No meaningful quantity of enriched uranium will leave Iranian territory under the present framework. That line is firm…

Strait of Hormuz: Tehran’s Non-Nuclear Strategic Lever

The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s most powerful non-nuclear instrument. The logic from Tehran is blunt: the United States cannot freeze Iranian assets, sanction Iranian exports, suffocate Iranian banking channels, and then expect unconditional maritime passage as though nothing has happened.

Iran’s emerging posture appears tiered and deliberate. Friendly states receive passage. Neutral states are handled selectively. Hostile or adversary-linked shipping will face interdiction, delay, or denial. This is not simply military posturing. Tehran is attempting to convert maritime geography into a regional security architecture based on reciprocity: if Iran’s economy is strangled, the economic arteries of others will not remain entirely immune.

The reported MOU framework involving the Strait appears real: Iranian de-escalation in exchange for sanctions relief, asset movement, and restoration of commercial access. But the sequencing dispute remains unresolved. Iran wants assets released before surrendering maritime leverage. Washington wants compliance in the Strait before releasing assets. As I write this (Tuesday evening eastern time) this issues remains unresolved….

Lebanon and Hezbollah: The Detonator Built Into the System

Lebanon remains the most dangerous variable in the entire equation. The diplomatic architecture now being constructed contains a structural flaw, and that flaw runs directly through Beirut. Lebanon is not a side theater. It is the tripwire.

Israel wants continued freedom of operation in southern Lebanon. Iran views Hezbollah as a central pillar of its regional deterrence architecture. From Tehran’s perspective, Hezbollah is not a disposable card. It is non-negotiable.

This update in the Aljazeera live feed is consistent with Johnson’s take, albeit it pre-supposes a fig-leaf-level memorandum of understanding:

US, Iran ‘closer than ever to a deal’, but that deal is ‘very superficial’

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group think tank, explains that the deal being negotiated “is only going to try to consolidate the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz”.

“But it is not really going to fundamentally resolve any of the problems between Iran and the United States. It is going to defer them to a 60-day, negotiating period that would start once the memorandum of understanding is finalised,” he said.

Vaez told Al Jazeera that Iran – given its mistrust of the US and the Trump administration, in particular – wants to ensure that sanctions relief is a “real and verifiable and concrete” element of any agreement.

“That’s why you saw Iran’s parliamentary speaker, foreign minister, and head of the central bank in Doha yesterday to try to negotiate the very details of that mechanism,” he said, adding that Tehran also wants an end to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.

For Washington’s part, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a major red line. “There are mismatches in expectations,” Vaez said. “But I think given that the alternative to a negotiated settlement is so much more unattractive for both sides, there is a high likelihood that they will cross the finish line.”

And look as schizophrenic messages like this:

Again, to point to the elephant in the room: Israel has agency and is continuing to pound Lebanon. Iran will not accept a “deal” unless fighting ends on all fronts. Even if Trump wanted to drop a hammer on Israel (like denying intelligence support), the screams of betrayal from Zionists and evangelical Christian nutters would force him to relent. Recall how quickly the Biden Administration went into reverse over a rumored intel cut-off to the vastly-less-influential Ukraine (less than a week along with media muddying as to whether it had happened).

To confirm the degree of coordination between Israel and the US, Netanyahu paused a security meeting to take a call from Trump..1

There is also the question of what the US thought it was accomplishing with its attack on Iran. If you though it might move Iran, think twice. As Press TV pointed out. Iran says latest ceasefire violations prove US ‘ill-will’, vows decisive response PressTV

Larry Wilkerson contends this strike was a manifestation of how Trump thinks negotiations go: punch out the other side if they are not giving in to your demands. Karen Kwatkowski argues that it was a probing attack and she does expect the US to launch big strikes, even as she stresses that that is a very bad idea. Note that Iran may be holding back on its promised retaliation due to the Hajj; see Almayadeen as an example of the coverage given to the pilgrimage.

We will also cover more discussion in the business media of the approaching energy cliff and other signs of below-the-waterline damage.

From a fresh talk between Larry Wilkerson and Nima. Wilkerson does say he was convinced the US would take one more big whack at Iran but is now confused as to what is going on on the US side.

From a lightly-edited machine transcript:

Nima: Let me start Larry with what has happened last night and the night before the confrontation between Iran and the United States firing at each other. It was started by a by fighter jets, US fighter jets attacking speedboats in the Persian Gulf….

Wiilkerson: Well, it’s the Trump method of diplomacy.

It’s a method that I think is pretty obvious to the world now that particularly with the case of Iran and the United States that we get into diplomacy and we feel like that part of the diplomacy this is the only way we can operate anymore Nima is sanctions and military force military force and sanctions and we get in the middle of the diplomacy such as it is it isn’t real diplomacy and if they’re not adhering to our points the way we want them to adhere or we want to move them a certain direction, we start the bombing over again. We start the kinetic action over again. That’s the only way we know how to negotiate. The only way we know how to deal. Um, and we’re teaching the world in many respects this sort of technique. So, we can expect it back at us, if not soon, more so than not. And it’s a terrible thing, terrible precedent we’re setting.

First of all, if you look at this very closely, there has been no contact between an Iranian diplomat or an Iranian government representative or both and an American of equivalent stature.

There there simply hasn’t because we’ve put no diplomats forward. There are no diplomats dealing with this. There’s only people like Jared Kushner and Steve Whitoff. And I don’t even include Marco Rubio in what I would call a diplomat.

He’s made it clear that he’s not a diplomat. He’s an advocate of bombs, bullets, bayonets, and sanctions, just typical of the empire. So, this is the strangest diplomacy. At no point in time since we commenced this quote diplomacy unquote, have we actually talked with Iranians, nor are they with us, probably at their behest on their side or their decision on their side because they don’t trust us worth of crap and certainly because Trump won’t let anybody talk directly with Iranians…..So there’s no diplomacy going on, Nima.

Period. There is no diplomacy going on.

There’s only a pronouncement here and a pronouncement here and then Bibi in the center saying I don’t like that. I’ll start the bombing again in Lebanon or I’ll do something else.

Karen Kwiatkawski, in a talk with Mario Nawfal, by contrast, views the US as readying an attack and the dustup in the Strait of Hormuz as probing.

From a lightly-edited machine transcript:

Kwiatkowski: It’s sad that we’re reduced to trying to interpret um the whole entirety of US foreign policy by how many tweets uh or how many truth social posts the president makes. Um you know, Israel had uh doesn’t want the war to end. And they had just ordered an acceleration, intensification, of their campaign in Lebanon. So, um and they’ve done this before.

I mean it’s so predictable like when the war comes close to an end or there’s talk that hey we can come to some solution Israel accelerates. It is they’re doing and they don’t really listen to the United States even though Trump periodically says, you know, like he said last week “Netanyahu does whatever I tell him.” That’s not that’s not true. But it’s nice that Trump is aware that he has to actually vocalize that because everybody thinks it’s not true…

I’m not optimistic and I see really, not that I know any more than anybody else. I don’t. But the I think what we were doing with the shooting of the boats and some of the land targets that we had that to me that’s a probe. that’s practice and probe to test. What are they gonna do?

Kwiatkowski also argues that Zionists are taking advantage of Trump’s cognitively challenged state. She believes the sure-to-alienate-the-Gulf-States-and-Pakistan Abraham Accords pressure was their bright idea to undermine the talks.

The continued movement of aircraft into theater lends credence to Witkowski’s warning. From Anadolu Agency in US deploys F-22 fighter jets, dozens of refueling aircraft in Israel: Report:

The US has deployed F-22 fighter jets and dozens of refueling aircraft across military facilities and airports in Israel in what Israeli media described Tuesday as an unprecedented military presence.

Israel’s public broadcaster KAN, citing Israeli security sources, said Washington is interested in maintaining the deployment at least through the end of the year, in addition to longstanding US military forces stationed across the Middle East.

The broadcaster said satellite imagery reviewed over recent months showed an unprecedented deployment of US fighter jets and refueling aircraft inside Israel.

The analysis covered the period from the start of Israel’s attacks on Iran on Feb. 28 through last week.

According to the report, F-22 fighter jets were deployed at Ovda Air Base in southern Israel, while dozens of US refueling aircraft were stationed at Ben Gurion and Ramon airports…

Israel’s Channel 12 previously reported that dozens of US refueling aircraft stationed at Ben Gurion and Ramon airports were already affecting airport operations and airline ticket prices.

The broadcaster also cited Civil Aviation Authority chief Shmuel Zakai as warning that Ben Gurion was being operated “as a military base rather than a civilian airport.”…

KAN said the unusually large US deployment in Israel has remained intact since the ceasefire with Iran took effect last month.

And Israel is inflicting plenty of pain in Southern Lebanon.

From the Aljazeera live feed:

Humanitarian crisis deepens in southern Lebanon as Israel invades

Israel has issued about 50 forced displacement orders for Lebanese towns and villages over the past 24 hours, as well as a blanket displacement order for the entire city of Nabatieh.

This, combined with the recent attacks, is causing a huge humanitarian crisis that is only continuing to grow, putting pressure on the Lebanese government to find a fast end to this conflict.

But as Israel says, it is going to continue expanding its military “operations”. It’s not clear how that’s going to end, but this is going to have a huge impact on civilian life as the attacks continue to intensify and the death toll continues to go up.

And on the economic front. Reread the sections above on progress to a deal, which is actually nada. The Strait of Hormuz is certain to remain under tight Iranian control for a bare minimum of 60 days after a memorandum of understanding is inked, if that ever happens. That means that even if traffic were to move towards normalization, the level would still stay well below where it is now. And that charitably assumes no kinetic action which would correctly deter operators from moving into the Strait of Hormuz.

Lloyd’s List provides a reality check in a new story, Strait of Hormuz traffic falls as reopening efforts make little headway:2

  • According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, traffic volumes slumped 48% last week on the previous week
  • Despite the overall collapse in transits, at least half of all transits continued to involve Iranian cargoes
  • Towards the end of the week, dark transits peaked as the security situation deteriorated

Hormuz transits plunged to nearly half their previous levels last week, with US interdictions, Iran’s new traffic authority and stalled negotiations combining to push vessel movements below early war lows

And some are waking up to the implications:

In the meantime, the US is in close to party-on mode as the energy cliff approaches:

Done for today! See you tomorrow!
_____

.1

2 Some misinformation yesterday, apparently triggered by the Wall Street Journal:

But then again, this is the sort of “play stupid games, win stupid prizes” behavior that appeals to the Trump Administration:

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138 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    Regarding the US attack on Iran a day or so. It could be the Trump regime thinking that doing so puts pressure on the Iranians to back down on their demands though I suspect that it will only increase their resolve instead. But what it could also be is a campaign to normalize such attacks on Iran so that the US can go in and ‘mow the lawn’ from time to time. Sort of like they were doing to Iraq in the years leading up to the actual invasion. I think that the Iranians will be quick to jump on that idea pretty hard. And may be that they are waiting – in deference to the Saudis – for the Haj to finish before their counterattack. It’s the only way to deal with a bully. Just hit them back as hard if not harder.

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    1. Michaelmas

      But what it could also be is a campaign to normalize such attacks on Iran so that the US can go in and ‘mow the lawn’ from time to time. Sort of like they were doing to Iraq in the years leading up to the actual invasion.

      That makes a lot of sense — though only in the context of customary US operational behaviors, I hasten to add.

      But yes, that’s exactly what the US will think it’ll do going forward, since it’s failed dismally to get the whole enchilada.

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      1. mrsyk

        I like the mowing the lawn analogy, but that’s been the status quo for half a century or so. Thus the sequencing demanded by Iran.
        If Iran can impose and hold an embargo of Gulf products on the aggressor nations, that would establish a hard and short timeline to sort things out, forcing Trump’s hand.

        Not one drop.

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        2. ilsm

          Seems Trump said no sanction relief until enrcihed uranium surrendered.

          Looks like no start for MOU!

          IDF demands right to kill at random 5 year old future terrorists.

          Who is talking to whom?

          Reply ↓
    1. Eclair

      Yves, my admiration for you knows no bounds. You wallow in this toxic stuff, day after day, to produce concise summaries for your most appreciative commentariat.

      I am taking the rest of the day off and driving my Amish friend, L, about as she picks up deliveries for her dry-goods store. (There is a big shipment of glass oil-lamp chimneys waiting at a remote farm. Do not ask how UPS gets out there!). Then we are off to get a load of straw bales for my potato patch; L’s nephew has some nice straw from last summer’s crop tucked away in his barn.)

      And, yeah, I drive a pretty big pickup, as do half the English population here. (How else you gonna haul straw bales? And rolls of poultry wire? And deer carcases?) But, things get bad, I have a lot of neighbors who drive buggies. :-)

      By early evening I will again be ready to delve into the morass that is our world.

      Reply ↓
      1. hk

        How the Amish actually live in the modern world (as opposed to how we “English” who also in distant places) is something that I have always found and keep finding fascinating. One day, hopefully things will calm down enough that folks will be able yo talk about such things without distraction on these pages.

        Reply ↓
    1. Cardiac

      You’ll find that it is an intention swap, a bit of Yves humor. See prior posts for more evidence of this.

      Reply ↓
      1. Oregon Lawhobbit

        Subliminal interest in buying a tank? Russian ones are better than American if you want a tracked fighting vehicle. Be sure to get the “Dandelion” option in this age of drone warfare.

        Reply ↓
            1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

              Yeah..should probably muzzle myself, since I am sorta rolling into a minefield with that one…better hatch a new plan before I am over the barrel…

              Reply ↓
      2. Cassandra

        I thought it might be a reference to Elliott and his deft approach to American statecraft in the Persian Gulf…

        But then, I’m old.

        Reply ↓
    3. ilsm

      Abraham was referred to as Abram early in the book of Genesis in the Old Testament. When he was shown the multitude of his descendants is when he assumed Abraham (father of nations), Genesis 17.

      Same patriarch different boundaries.

      Reply ↓
  5. The Rev Kev

    ‘Ahmed Shihab-Eldin
    @aseisfree
    Israel’s Channel 12 reports Israeli forces have crossed the “Yellow Line” in Lebanon, the ceasefire boundary that, until now, marked the outer limit of Israeli ground presence since 2006.’

    Is that wise? IDF forces will be more in the open now as they advance past the Litani river and be attacked accordingly. In addition, IDF supply lines will be much longer while those of Hezbollah will be shorter. Can you imagine those fuel tankers driving north to support those advancing tanks – and then being hit by a FPV drone? Kaboom! Same with ammo trucks. Double kaboom! What if Hezbollah makes use of IEDs? So is Netanyahu doing this so that he can be seen as ‘doing something?’ Or is he throwing the dice hoping that something good will happen out of it? Something that will help his political survival.

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      1. The Rev Kev

        Sure, but what sort of shape would they be in if they got there? Hezbollah pushed the Israelis out of Lebanon back in 2000 and curb-stomped them when they tried to invade in 2006. In neither war were FPV drones a thing like they are now. Don’t know why the IDF was not ready for them, especially after watching the war in the Ukraine the past four years. I guess that hubris is a helluva drug.

        Reply ↓
      2. Lefty Godot

        And Aoun will welcome them with open arms. It’s so wonderful to have bought-and-paid-for stooges at the top level of every government (with our US Congress as the shining example to the world in this regard).

        Reply ↓
  7. LawnDart

    Re; Energy cliff…

    Kicking the can until the end of the road… the short-term thinking by Team Trump is exceptional, even by measure against previous administrations.

    Foreign buyers snap up nearly half of oil released from US reserve in sign of supply crunch

    America First, huh?

    It does look like Team Trump is trying to keep the pain and panic to a minimum until we get past the Fourth of July holiday (America! F**k Yeah!!!), but then the road on which they were kicking the can quickly runs out. And then what? Labor Day riots?

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    1. David Vogt

      Are you kidding? They’re a dictatorship. That’s what Americans said they wanted. Dictatorships aren’t competent. There isn’t some master plan for “and then we’ll do this” for after July 4th. There’s just what you see. After two weeks, a new, definitely-real agreement with Iran will be announced, and it will be excitedly reported on uncritically. We have always been at war with Eastasia. Until we’re at peace with them, at which point, we’ll have always been at peace with them.

      Reply ↓
      1. tegnost

        That’s what Americans said they wanted.

        BS. It’s not a dictatorship it’s a cabal of douchbags taking advantage of a relentlessly deregulated country. Americans also did not at any time say they want a dictatorship. I’ll goone step further and point out that only dems are competent rulers has a tinge of the “my way or the highway” dictator to it.
        Both parties suck, almost equally.

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      2. Jonathan Holland Becnel

        By Americans, do you mean the Rich?

        But yeah I’ll take a Huey Long style dictatorship of the people right about now!

        Reply ↓
        1. Henry Moon Pie

          Who took on the Standard Oil men
          And whipped their ass,
          Just like he promised he’d do?
          Ain’t no Standard Oil men gonna run this state.
          Gonna be run by little folks like me and you.
          Kingfish, Kingfish!
          Friend of the working man.
          Kingfish, Kingfish!
          The Kingfish gonna save this land.

          Randy Newman, “Kingfish” (from the Good Old Boys album)

          Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      I really don’t understand this. I mean exporting oil like crazy with looming oil shortages at home. If I go on the assumption that the Trump White House thinks that this conflict will be over soon, then it is a high stakes risk. But since there is no sign of this conflict ending any time soon, then this becomes a reckless gamble – with the devil to pay. I’m suddenly reminded of the German WW2 joke that ends with the punchline ‘But does the Fuhrer know about this?’

      Reply ↓
      2. mzza

        It’s baffling. This particular slow train wreck reads like the inevitable result of a) an incompetent administration focused on superficial appearance over policy, b) with a core ideology where “success” is everyone taking the most money where and when they can find it tomorrow-be-damned, and c) neoliberal devotion to the idea that a deregulated corporation can do no wrong.

        Dumping US reserves (check), exporting those reserves (check), rolling in high margin profits that can only go on forever, while the last actual gallon of US gas is used to fuel the Thelma & Louise 8-cylinder convertible’s inevitable plunge over the cliff. Except in this scenario both Thelma & Louise are played by Major T. J. “King” Kong from Dr. Strangelove.

        Reply ↓
      3. ISL

        its very profitable (before the demand destruction). I assume the oil is sold to a crony* at spot who then resells it at delivery ($50-$70/bbl x 10 million bbl/wk = some real money.

        * I have no evidence for this, and haven’t looked (it should be semi-hidden through front companies, but then again…); but it would be consistent with the admin modus operandi.

        Reply ↓
          1. ACF

            Thank you very much for this article.

            I was struck by this sentence:

            “A sudden diplomatic breakthrough reopening the Strait of Hormuz would quickly deflate the geopolitical risk premium baked into refined product prices, normalizing crack spreads.”

            “Quickly” in that sentence, in the context of an otherwise rational and informative article, reflects how that’s accepted wisdom. If quickly = several months to years, fine. But that’s not what consumers think when they hear it.

            As to this, don’t I wish:

            “Finally, should gasoline prices remain elevated at the pump, refiners could face policy risk in the form of a potential windfall profits tax, which could be debated in Washington as a measure to appease consumers.”

            Reply ↓
    3. What? No!

      I’m trying to work out the correct short-hand for describing present day dynamics. While I agree with Stein’s Law:

      If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.

      I think it is mislabeled; it should probably be referred to as Stein’s Exception.

      There are just too many conflicts of interest, too many opportunities for making money out of this thing. So if there is any conceivable way for a thing to continue, no matter how slim, harmful, or ridiculous, it will continue.

      Reply ↓
      1. What? No!

        Maybe some kind of mashup with Sherlock Holmes’:

        When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

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      2. John k

        Imo a great point. I suspect there’s significant overlap between the hawks around trump and those in the know of the next trump tweet that offers great profit potential.
        Why would any of them want to stop this fat gravy train? Because we will soon hit the point that oil rockets? Good god no… that will be one more big profit op. And so would be a market crash, the trick is to just place your shorts at the right time.

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    4. ilsm

      Not only crude LNG outbound from U.S. is up!

      War is good for business.

      EIA Weekly petroleum balance sheet out 10:30 AM EDT tomorrow, how low can crude stocks go!

      Reply ↓
  8. David Vogt

    My politically formative years during and after college were shaped by the Bush administration’s lies on Iraq and that performance — which seemed transparent at the time — looks like a masterclass in comparison to this one. It is genuinely stunning to see the media happily taken in every time with the same “Oh, the agreement’s done, definitely this time, unlike last time, we’re just letting the ink dry! Yeah, I know we said that six times already, but this time it’s for real!” What is this, kindergarten?

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    1. Vicky Cookies

      When reading liberal mainstream news, I most often go to the Guardian, which is sometimes more palatable than its American counterparts. For several days, they have reported an agreement without bothering to check whether the other side is party to it. My best guess for their reasons is a combination of Western exceptionalism clouding their analysis and a convergence of interests in keeping the stock market high.

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      1. paul

        The guardian can be relied on for football scores.

        Not much else since the ritual gelding over the wikileaks affair.

        It remains useful for monitoring what useful misinformation they might regard their audience will swallow.

        Otherwise t just a place for freedland, sub professor garton ash and whoever the editor’s current lumber is, to flap their gums and collect their wages of sin.

        Reply ↓
        1. Jason Boxman

          I recall Guardian for both their incessant fundraising appeals and their stream of anti-Sanders hit pieces back when he was running for president and I still acknowledged his existence.

          Reply ↓
      2. David Vogt

        Yes, I’m afraid that’s precisely the point. The Bush administration advanced a fairly thought-through series of lies about WMD in Iraq and while a depressing amount of mainstream media went along with it, many notable voices — like the Guardian — did not.

        The Trump administration advances transparently obvious flimflam and even the Guardian runs with it.

        You cannot say that Western exceptionalism demanded they back the second and not the first. Something fundamental has clearly changed.

        Reply ↓
        1. John Wright

          As I recall, the US media landscape during the Iraq War runup had the New York Times and the Washington Post as Iraq war pimps and Knight Ridder as quite skeptical.

          Like other war skeptics such as Chris Hedges and Phil Donahue, Knight-Ridder was marginalized.

          The New York Times got the war it wanted and did a “how we got it wrong on Iraq” retrospective to mollify its nominal liberal-peace loving readers.

          But Knight-Ridder’s Washington bureau was a skeptical voice at the time.

          Reply ↓
          1. Abigail Field

            I remember this too—that a major paper group was correctly skeptical, and Judith Miller/NYT & WaPo were stenographic war cheerleaders. I didn’t remember which, thx

            Reply ↓
          2. Offtrail

            You’re right. Knight-Ridder questioned the war.

            On the other side, The Atlantic was also a major villain, with Jeffery Goldberg promoting the lie that Saddam was in league with al Qaeda. I can’t stomach seeing him leading Washington Week on PBS. But then, PBS very happily allowed itself to be swept along by the pro-war tide.

            Reply ↓
          3. Lefty Godot

            I seem to recall McClatchy also being skeptical on Iraq. And there was a visible anti-war movement out in the streets then. Now the most you get is few disheveled boomers with “No Kings” placards and the occasional rainbow flag in the center of their safe suburban town. Thank God we still have Medea Benjamin around though. I just don’t see that she has much company in talking sense.

            Reply ↓
      3. Dr. Nod

        I read the Guardian every day in the early 1970s and subscribed to the Guardian weekly for decades afterI left the UK. For a very long time it was a great newspaper. The correspondents were knowledgeable and thoughtful (and often entertaining). There was a bit of British quirkiness and, in the Guardian Weekly, amusing and mind expanading correspondence from around the world. Who else had weekly letters from places like Bamako. Now, like the Labour Party, it is a cruel parody of its former self.

        Reply ↓
      4. chuck roast

        The Guardian appears to be getting its information from the Financial Times. Here we have the “apparent agreement”; the “draft agreement”; the “understanding” and whatnot. All leading back to business as usual. So, we are going to getting back to normal really soon, and the future will take of itself the way it always does. They have an editorial team led by Alfred E. Newman.

        Reply ↓
    2. Samuel Conner

      Craig Tindale would probably argue that it’s structural.

      Serious journalists who challenge the official line can’t get access; stenographers can and get more by-lines, even if what is published bears little connection to what is actually happening.

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      1. David Vogt

        Well of course it is structural, but I’m old enough to remember reading Chomsky’s commentaries on the media and consent. This is the dunce’s farce version and I fail to understand how people who used to take themselves very seriously are still dancing. The lights have been turned off, the props and backdrop have been hauled off stage, and they are still standing there insisting “No no, I’m not even an actor actually, it’s all very real!!!”

        Reply ↓
  9. Randall Flagg

    Don’t worry about this fuel thing.
    Anecdota here but just got off the phone with a building material supplier asking if they had any polyurethane foam
    Insulation panels in stock (they sell seconds, appearance doesn’t matter in our situation on this, plenty of the regular stuff around). Guy says none is available as the trucking company wants a grand to bring it up from NJ to mid VT and that’s too much. Sympathetically I just say wow, I know diesel is going up but I didn’t think the prices were that bad yet. Guy replies it’s 7$ a gallon down there ( $5.50+/- around here), but it’s going to come down as next week Trump is going to tell the oil companies to cut it out and quit gouging everyone.

    I was flabbergasted by his stating that as if Trump is a God that can order anything to happen as he wants. Clearly the man is a MAGA fan.

    I was also traveling this weekend in NE Pa and noticed a Trump Store in a strip mall. I didn’t have the stomach to make a trip into it.

    Reply ↓
    1. David Vogt

      Ah, so that’s what Biden did wrong, he was supposed to press the big “bring prices down” button.

      Why hasn’t Trump pressed it already, what is he waiting for???

      Reply ↓
      1. paul

        I don’t think he is sufficiently incentivised to do so.

        If want him to do something, get in touch with his family office.

        Reply ↓
      2. tegnost

        Vax and relax.
        Biden went to great lengths to paper over covid including lots of SPR releases.
        Hows that war to topple russia going?
        Both parties re pushing the billionaires get richer button, the AI button, the surveillance button, the we’ve already taken over the world button.
        Yes, the list does go on, and on, and on…

        Reply ↓
    2. paul

      You have roll your eyes, raise your eyebrows and put a gun to your head if you think DJT can do anything but make everything worse for the hard working americaneses.

      Reply ↓
      1. tegnost

        Working americans have been screwed since forever.
        Al Marilagi is looking to plunder the professional managerial caste.

        Reply ↓
    3. LaRuse

      I had the same kind of interaction with my dad last week, who is an OG MAGA fan. He said not to worry about gasoline (now $4.55 /gal) because Trump will have it all sorted out in the next week or so. It’ll go right back down where it was, if not lower because America makes all it’s own gas and we’re just being gouged and … yada yada yada.
      There comes a point where all I can conclude is that Trumpism is something of a cult. He is a miracle-working higher power for a startling number of people.

      Reply ↓
      1. ACF

        Once upon a time, admission to the cult was believing 2020 was stolen from Trump. Now it’s more diffuse. Nonetheless, I have to imagine there will come a point at which the stubbornly high, and continuing to increase, prices will break the alternative reality the cultists are currently living in.

        Reply ↓
        1. Samuel Conner

          I speculate that DJT’s “pursue independent policy” admonition to incoming Fed Chair Warsh may be a setup to blame him for real economy problems.

          Reply ↓
          1. ACF

            He may well try that
            But not sure people seeing gas prices and store shelf items more expensive will believe him

            Reply ↓
            1. Samuel Conner

              I’m not sure that DJT cares whether people believe what he says. I get the sense that his verbal emissions are primarily for the purpose of navigating the present moment. As Michael Wolff has repeatedly said, it’s an “audience of one.”

              One can imagine press conferences where DJT is challenged about high prices — “Hey, you’re talking about inflation and controlling that is the job of the Fed. I thought Warsh would do a great job and I gave him full freedom to pursue the right interest rate policy but he’s disappointing me, just like my appointee Powell disappointed me before him!”

              It won’t convince the masses but DJT will feel good about the interaction.

              Reply ↓
      2. Bugs

        There’s some AI slop art meme going around of Trump feeding a gathering of MAGA baseball-hatted followers with with a spoon saying, “here you go, you dumb #%*$s, straight from my diaper”. It’s a truly disturbing image but captures just how discordant the cult seems to anyone on the outside paying attention.

        Reply ↓
      3. Retaj

        Trump’s argument during his bankruptcies was that his real estate business value fluctuated based on his carnival barking, so his loans were totally legit and he was not bankrupt. Ultimately, courts forced him to sell and divest ownership of the underwater properties.

        His posts similarly will not be able to conjure molecules of diesel fuel. Congress will not be acting like bankruptcy court did in the near or medium term it appears. So the slow motion crisis continues.

        Reply ↓
      4. Lee

        Received a text from friends traveling by car from SF bay area to New Mexico: “I have seen the future, and it’s $7.45 a gallon.”

        I assume they’re in the boonies and still west of the Great Divide.

        Reply ↓
  10. Pyrrho

    The bull market is only running on bullsh*t at this stage. Iran must be counting on real demand destruction due to real shortages in critical commodities to eventually rupture America’s vast strategic reserve of bovine excrement. That will take time, I would think.

    It seems Trump will do his dead level best to keep things from imploding beyond the Fourth until at least the end of the World Cup. Are the betting markets taking bets on how loudly he is going to get booed? If I were a betting man, I would place my bet on “deafening.” Boomercons don’t attend soccer games.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      For what it is worth, the World Cup starts in only 14 days and 10 hours. That’s not very far away.

      Reply ↓
    2. Ignacio

      Mr Market and Western MSM are only doing what they believe is their role in this conflict. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, the Western PMCs do their best to pretend that this doesn’t hurt their economies as much as Iranians had thought before. For instance, NC run yesterday an article on how Resilient is Now Europe to Fossil Fuel Shocks. Call me cynical but this was an indirect way of supporting USrael’s conflict with Iran. This was written by policymakers but you can see that the MSM and Mr. Market are both complicit downplaying the impacts the war is already having in the Economies That Really Matter, which are very few. In this way they help to exert pressure on the Iranians: Pledge to our demands, We are implacable, and You will suffer the most, not us.

      It will not work but we have been pretending to be winning the war in Ukraine for more than 4 years and this conflict will probably take for much longer that anticipated because our PMCs are unable to admit defeat. Markets will probably keep pretending that everything is fine for much longer that in any other previous oil crises.

      Reply ↓
    1. leaf

      I have the sinking suspicion that Mr. Johnson is outsourcing more and more of his writing to AI based on the length and writing style of his blog posts now. Or more likely I am just becoming schizophrenic. Unfortunate

      Reply ↓
  12. Tom Stone

    All the USA wants is a rainbow colored pony that poops magic skittles, what’s unreasonable about that?

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit

      Magic skittles ain’t free you know! Do you have any idea how much economic “input” goes into the Rainbow Pony to produce that level of “output?” Now, if Trump produced those Magic Skittles out of his Depends, I’d believe it in a heartbeat!
      “Please Sir. Can I have some more?”
      MAGA = Miserly American Government Agencies

      Reply ↓
  13. Verifyfirst

    It is all quite baffling. No concern in Congress or the media for the extended force deployments, frozen in place, which must be very taxing for the military and the troops.

    I can only think of Trump as a Borscht Belt comic doing his schtick on stage, dancing around, riffing on this then riffing on that, searching desperately for a joke that will land. Stringing his audience along, desperately trying not to lose them. I don’t think he has any idea where he is headed, he is just stringing this along, hoping a solution will appear because he has none. Maybe that worked for him in his bankruptcies and other business dealings, I don’t know.

    I’m confident the average Borscht belt crowd would long ago have thrown him out the door, with jeers and thrown tomatoes, but the financial industry is apparently much less savvy, or more likely, has too much to lose if they call the bluff.

    Reply ↓
    1. Oregon Lawhobbit

      It is all quite baffling. No concern in Congress or the media for the extended force deployments, frozen in place, which must be very taxing for the military and the troops.

      Why would they be concerned? It’s not like they or anyone they know is deployed.

      Reply ↓
  14. Ann

    Iran says draft deal with US would reopen Hormuz shipping, end naval blockade

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-draft-us-deal-would-reopen-hormuz-shipping-end-naval-blockade-2026-05-27/

    Zelensky sends Trump urgent letter warning of Ukraine’s critical missile defense shortages

    https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-sends-trump-urgent-letter-warning-of-critical-missile-defense-shortages/

    Lebanon ceasefire falters as Trump pushes for Iran deal

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/26/lebanon-ceasefire-falters-trump-pushes-iran-deal/

    Board of Peace blames breakdown of ceasefire in Gaza on Hamas’s refusal to disarm

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-897395

    Reply ↓
      1. ambrit

        Notice that Zelensky is reduced to sending letters, sternly worded no doubt, while Netanyahoo calls Trump direct.

        Reply ↓
    2. mrsyk

      Thanks again Ann for the additional links.
      The Beggar of Kiev on form, but the US larder is close to bare.

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA

        What part of “the cupboard is bare” does the Green T-shirt not understand? Or is it merely performative, e.g. he knows there is nothing left to give, but has to do his circus monkey act as a sort of ritual?

        Also, it seems that even if there were defense missiles to give, they don’t work anyways. The last attack on Kiev featured a video of Patriot interceptors helplessly firing in vain to stop an Oreshnik. A very expensive roman candle display for the locals. No doubt someone in the Pentagon is taking note and saying to themselves that those expensive missiles are being wasted on the Green T-shirt, and better to husband them for the real priority, the Israelites.

        I mean, we can’t have evang tourists getting blown to Kingdom Come on their tours of the Holy Lands. That would be bad for business.

        Reply ↓
        1. LawnDart

          Z-man knows, and knows that Kiev is about to be blown to shit by Russian retaliation for deliberately murdering Russian children. Z-man makes the ask anyway so he can fix blame for the smoking rubble that remains of Kiev elsewhere: “See? NATO and the USA let us down…”

          Patriots didn’t work in ’91 and they don’t work now. Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing all APAIC-connected congress-critters sent to Tel Aviv to fact-find during the next phase of the conflict.

          Reply ↓
    3. Oregon Lawhobbit

      Iran says draft deal with US would reopen Hormuz shipping, end naval blockade

      “…a draft of an initial, unofficial framework for a memorandum of understanding.”

      But was the napkin it was written on clean?

      I’m not sure you can get any more vague than that, other than maybe “a rumor of a draft….”

      Gonna second the “Thanks again for your link-work, Ann!” sentiment expressed hereinabove…

      Reply ↓
      1. ChrisFromGA

        I think that the napkin was found in the bathroom of the local disco, soaked in gin … sounds like a binding contract to me!

        Reply ↓
      3. David Vogt

        Well, the Trump administration has said the Iranian-published terms of the draft agreement are fake news, so I guess we’re back to square one, no deal…

        Reply ↓
        1. Irrational

          I find it hilarious that the Iranians are using the Trump admin playbook – claim a deal is near, let the US deny.

          Reply ↓
  15. PVDSteve

    For all the folks who find the incompetence of our elites baffling, why would they change? No one in the Western power bloc has been held accountable for anything in my lifetime. The damage caused by their decisions is felt almost entirely by people they view as little more than automatons to bring them coffee and mow their lawn. Their stock prices keep going up and when they don’t the government will take more of the little people’s money and give it to them as a bailout. Even when they “lose” they win, with Biden’s team of polished genocide merchants finding lucrative gigs at law firms, think tanks, and universities, and Trump’s cronies will cash in just the same should he be voted out.

    Our ruling class is playing a game they can’t lose with money that isn’t theirs, maybe the greatest structural arrangement of moral hazard in human history. Both their depravity and their inability (or unwillingness) to learn or adapt to changing conditions are downstream of the lack of accountability for their actions. Absent revolutionary pressure from below, which they’ve invested enormous sums of money and ideological capital to repress, there’s no reason for them to change.

    Reply ↓
    1. Andrew

      The incompetence of the elites and failure to do anything other than pump the stock market and enrich themselves is astounding. Perhaps democracy is salvageable, but the structure needs so much overhaul I’m not sure how we get to some sane functioning.

      Reply ↓
  17. Mikel

    “negatives for any negotiated settlement. Yet the orthodox press continues to portray the talks as making progress.”

    If one compares this to a time line of negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine war, it can appear to be a method of slow walking people into longer conflicts.

    Reply ↓
    1. Mikel

      And I’m saying look at the Russia-Ukraine “negotiations” timeline from 2022 until now…beyond the current administration.

      Reply ↓
  18. Ann

    U.S. oil falls below $90 on report Iran agreement would restore Hormuz traffic in one month

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/oil-price-today-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html

    Tony Blair tells Starmer and rivals: abandon net zero and move closer to Trump

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/26/tony-blair-labour-abandon-net-zero-support-donald-trump

    EU countries back EU-US deal, paving the way for its final adoption

    https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/05/27/eu-countries-back-eu-us-deal-paving-the-way-for-its-final-adoption

    Reply ↓
    1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

      U.S. oil falls below $90 on report Iran agreement would restore Hormuz traffic in one month

      These are not connected events (the headline is misleading). But even if Iran chooses restore Hormuz traffic in one month and all of the ships can get there instantaneously, all those countries that have been running down their supplies will need to urgently replenish at least some of them immediately, and thus compete with the non government entities.

      In other words, oil prices are going to increase dramatically in the short term no matter what.

      Reply ↓
    2. ISL

      EU agrees to zero tariffs on US goods, while US goods receive 15% tarriff. Clear to all who is the vassal!

      And the EUcrats think the US will help them with their war with Russia? They do not understand the definition of the word vassal.

      Reply ↓
  20. Jason Boxman

    whoa boy

    Iranian state television said Wednesday that it had obtained a draft of a preliminary deal with the United States, which the White House quickly dismissed as untrue, calling the described memorandum a “complete fabrication” amid tense negotiations.

    According to the reported draft, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial marine traffic in return for the United States lifting its naval blockade. Iran’s broadcaster projected the “initial, unofficial” 14-point agreement as one in which Iran “cemented its power in the Strait,” while laying out a potential path to peace with the United States.

    President Trump, speaking at the start of a Cabinet meeting, did not immediately address the back-and-forth or any of the details under negotiations. He said that the U.S. side was “not satisfied” so far with the state of talks, adding a familiar threat: “Maybe we’ll have to go back and finish it, maybe we won’t.”

    Mr. Trump also said he did not feel political pressure to end the war, which has raised fuel prices around the globe. Iranian officials “thought they were going to outwait me,” he said, adding, “I don’t care about the midterms.”

    (bold mine)

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/27/world/iran-war-trump-deal/heres-the-latest?smid=url-share

    It is gonna be pretty lit when we hit tank bottom, no? The Trump administration is less equipped to manage an energy shock than even Biden’s team would have been. Hello, brick wall!

    Reply ↓
    1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

      “He said that the U.S. side was “not satisfied” so far with the state of talks, adding a familiar threat: “Maybe we’ll have to go back and finish it, maybe we won’t.””

      Who is this a threat to, exactly? Iran is very clearly just fine–and at least one Iranian faction is clearly eager– with the idea of the US resuming.

      If this is the “leverage” that the US is wielding, the Iranians must be pissing themselves laughing

      Reply ↓
      1. leaf

        “Asked about negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas that Iran has effectively closed, President Trump said that “the strait’s going to be open for everybody” as international waters and not in Iran’s control. “Nobody’s going to control it, we’re going to watch over it,” he said. Responding to a question from a reporter about the possibility that a deal might include a pact between Iran and Oman, a U.S. ally on the other side of the strait, to jointly control the waterway, President Trump rejected the notion: “Oman will behave just like everybody else or we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that. They’ll be fine.””
        Crazy!

        Reply ↓
        1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

          In Trump speak, I think this means that he is about to concede something big.

          Every time he says something outrageously stupid (as opposed to saying something that is merely outrageous or merely stupid), it’s bluster to draw attention away from something else.

          We shall see, I guess. If he actually follows through on this threat (and to reiterate, I put the odds at about 0), though, it would be interesting–essentially bombing the only neutral country in this entire fiasco and agreeing not to bomb the country the us deems an enemy…

          Reply ↓
            1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

              Good catch–thanks for that.

              Now I know what to look into over this weekend… :)

              Reply ↓
    2. nyleta

      At the Russian cabinet meeting today it looks like in June Russia is going to ban jet fuel and diesel exports on top of their usual petrol export ban . Still cheerfully exporting 2 million barrels of crude a day to India. The markets have been upended. By the way much of the reported Venezuelan shipments recently reported was already on ships waiting out sanctions, not new production.

      Reply ↓
      1. Bugs

        The ruble is in strong demand. Not sure how good that is for the average Russian, but it must confound the Russia haters, bigly.

        Reply ↓
  21. Ann

    Carney picks Swedish early-warning aircraft tech over U.S. bidders

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-military-aircraft-sweden-saab/

    U.S. floats tariff breaks for Canada, Mexico if they co-ordinate on external levies

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-usmca-talks-to-focus-on-us-content-tariff-coordination-greer-says/

    Corporations Can Vote in Some Delaware Elections, Judge Says

    https://news.bloomberglaw.com/esg/corporations-have-the-right-to-vote-in-delaware-town-judge-says

    Trump Board of Peace’s official Gaza fund is empty despite billions pledged, source says

    https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260527-trump-board-of-peace-official-gaza-fund-is-empty-despite-billions-pledged-source-says

    Israel orders evacuation of Lebanese city as Hezbollah conflict escalates

    https://bbc.com/news/articles/cj3pgrpmlklo

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      ‘Corporations Can Vote in Some Delaware Elections, Judge Says’

      When you think how many corporations are registered in Delaware, they could easily turn an election.

      Reply ↓
  22. lyman alpha blob

    Mixed myth alert.

    Further proving that clankers just cannot get it right, the “AI” image in the Art Berman tweet depicts Odysseus tied to the mast as he attempts to sail between Scylla and Charybdis, which is not at all mythologically accurate. Odysseus was tied to a mast when he passed by the Sirens so he wouldn’t be tempted to leap from the boat and be killed when he heard their songs . Had he tied himself and the other sailors down when he passed by Scylla, perhaps fewer of them would have been eaten by it.

    Now that I’ve gotten that bit of pedantry of my chest, I will continue reading about the attempts by Western elites at modern day myth making surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

    Reply ↓
  23. johnnyme

    Trump says Oman will ‘behave,’ or will be attacked by US

    President Donald Trump issued a stark threat to Oman on Wednesday, telling the Gulf country to “behave” or face attack from the US.

    “Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow them up. They understand that. They’ll be fine,” the president said in remarks during a Cabinet meeting at the White House.

    It is unclear what prompted Trump to make the charge against the Kingdom. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

    Reply ↓
    1. The Rev Kev

      Would Trump attack Oman using the three air bases that they use in Oman itself? Or would they outsource any such attack too the Ukrainians in this region?

      Reply ↓
  24. simpleton

    Iran really wants to end this war if Israel viciously violating the Lebanese ceasefire means nothing to them. I guess the promise of releasing frozen assets and integration with the global economy was all it took. Not to mention repeated US attacks that they choose to ignore for whatever reason.

    Such a shame too, but that’s my fault for thinking people believed in anything besides getting rich!

    Reply ↓
      1. simpleton

        Until the Supreme Leader replies with an explanation for his behavior, I will continue believing everybody is a cynical operator, yes.

        Reply ↓
  25. Ann

    German submarine bid promises Canada $86B economic boost and tens of thousands of jobs

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/subs-germany-canada-economy-jobs-9.7213216

    ICE detainees are dying by suicide at an ‘alarming’ rate, an AP investigation finds

    https://apnews.com/article/ice-suicide-deaths-detention-custody-d902169055292dfd27f5079e609e86ad

    Federal charges for Israeli connected to Las Vegas illegal biolab dropped

    https://www.ktnv.com/news/crime/federal-charges-for-property-manager-connected-to-las-vegas-illegal-biolab-dropped

    Biden sues DOJ to block release of audio recordings tied to special counsel probe

    https://abcnews.com/Politics/biden-sues-doj-block-release-audio-recordings-tied/story

    Trump DOJ mass-deletes info on Jan. 6 riot cases, including violent assaults on cops

    https://www.npr.org/2026/05/26/nx-s1-5834992/trump-deletes-jan-6-info

    Putin’s chilling announcement on Baltic states paves way for invasion

    https://www.themirror.com/news/world-news/putins-chilling-announcement-latvia-lithuania-1857053

    What is wrong with these people?

    Reply ↓
  26. Ann

    Brussels watchdog moves to ban Alternative for Germany’s EU party

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-watchdog-moves-ban-afd-far-right-party-over-breach-eu-values/

    US envoy warns Spain to be ‘very careful’ in deepening ties with China

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-envoy-warns-spain-be-very-careful-deepening-ties-with-china-2026-05-27/

    ‘We are not criminals’: protests erupt as hunger strike rocks New Jersey ICE jail

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/27/new-jersey-ice-immigration

    Energy bills to rise for millions as impact of Iran war hits UK

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8pw464986o

    Reply ↓
  27. Jeff W

    Today:
    Daniel Davis / Deep Dive | Oil Supply Crisis Won’t End Quickly /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Art Berman
    Here.
    ~~~~
    Very informative and realistic talk re oil prices with geologist/energy consultant Art Berman. Berman says, in essence, that everything coming out of the Trump administration concerning oil prices is false—no surprise there—and that oil is never coming down to $80/barrel again, except very sporadically.

    I’m sure you’ll catch this video, Yves, but “just in case,” I’m mentioning it in the comments.

    Reply ↓
      1. Sibiriak

        Go “here ” (same link as above.)
        Scroll down to “** NEW MERCH ** Rocks Glasses, Thermo Mugs, T-shirts & more! …more ”
        Click on the last bolded “more”
        More info appears.
        Click on “show transcript” (bold blue)
        See time-stamped auto transcript pop-up on the right.

        Reply ↓
      2. Sibiriak

        Excerpt, lightly cleaned up:
        ———————————————————————

        [50:46] Art Berman : … I don’t know how many times—how sick I am of hearing people say this is unprecedented. You know, everything’s unprecedented. Well, I’ve got news for you. In the oil industry, and I’ve been in this business for 50 years, there is no historical precedent for what’s happening right now. Nobody knows how to evaluate it. Nobody. Because it’s never happened before. We don’t have any analog. We can’t say what’s going to happen. And so, every day there’s new information, and some of that information is valuable and some of it is bogus.

        But the way a futures contract gets settled is there two people, or two parties. There’s one party that listens to President Trump—and I’ll call that party the “dumb money,” for lack of a better word—and they’re saying, “Oh, you know, the price of oil is going to be…” or “Kevin Hassett said it’s going to be $80 in a couple of weeks.” So that person’s going to go out, he’s going to put his life savings on $80 oil.

        And there’s going to be somebody who has to be on the other side of that trade that bets, “No, that’s not right. You’re wrong. I’m going to make a bunch of money off this trade.” But how far am I willing to go? I’m going to say it’s $90. You say it’s $80, I say it’s $90. Because I don’t need to say it’s $100. I don’t need to say it’s $110. All I need to do is win the bet. And I know if you say $80, you’re going to lose. So I’ve already won. I’ve already made a ton of money. Okay, that’s what’s called price discovery.

        And so we are in a period where the entire structure of the oil market is up in the air. Nobody knows where it’s going because we’ve never been here before. Every piece of information, whether it’s true, false, or a rumor, motivates somebody to put some money on the table. And that’s why the price is so volatile. It goes up and down and up and down because there’s dumb money and there’s smart money. Maybe, you know, I say it’s dumb money—maybe that’s too negative—but less informed money that actually believes the propaganda that you just shown. And they wouldn’t put that out there if people didn’t believe it.

        So it takes time before the market digests all of this. Eventually, what’s going to happen is the reality on the ground is going to show those guys who lost their ass saying it’s going to be $80 in July—they’re going to stop making those bids. They’re going to say, “Well, okay, I’m going to make another bet here for August. Only this time it’s going to be $90. It’s not going to be $80.”And there’s going to be somebody that says, “Okay, that’s wrong too. I’ll say $100.”

        Eventually, you’re going to run out of dumb money. You’re going to run out of people willing to bet low. And by that time, all the downstream effects of this disruption are going to land big time in places like Europe and the United States. And then no matter what Kevin Hassett says, everybody’s going to say, “That’s a lie. That’s not true, because I just went to the gas station and I know.” And when is that going to be? That’s going to be by July. Okay, so right now we’re living off of our savings account. We’re living off inventories.

        [audio issues dealt with]

        Daniel Davis …Just what is the difference? Right now it’s the dumb money and the smart money, whatever has to do with the price here. What happens when it gets to the point where there’s just not enough diesel fuel to put in the tank and we can’t do commerce?

        [audio issues dealt with]

        Art Berman: Well, that’s when the price takes off. And that’s what I’m saying. I’ve done modeling on this, and other people have too. And once places like the United States get hit with the reality of this—and I’ve already said it’s going to happen sometime—it’s not going to happen overnight, it’s going to happen in stages. But end of June, mid-July, it’s going to hit hard.[…]And by then, the price on your screen is going to be pretty darn close to the spot price. Then we’re going to be at $150. And I think it’s going to go higher. I mean, I’ve modeled it out to $160, $180.

        At which point, demand destruction kicks in.

        Reply ↓
    2. Socal Rhino

      Berman is a good person to follow on X. He mentioned several other industry experts that can also be found there like Jeff Currie, HFI research, and Rory Johnston. The oil industry people remain much more grounded that traders (forget the administration).

      Reply ↓
  28. Sibiriak

    Drop Site News: Jeremy Scahill reported this morning that Iranian officials say the U.S. has accepted Iran’s red lines in the latest revisions to the ceasefire declaration, but is asking for time to “manage domestic public opinion” before formally announcing acceptance of the interim agreement

    Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        ‘”This does not affect the ceasefire.” – U.S. official to Faytuks’

        Are they sure about that?

        Reply ↓
        1. Huey

          Usrael is that over the top villain you want to see shoved into a shark tank. They’ve had decades of backstory to get fleshed out and we’ve already seen all the tropes. Are they finally due their comeuppance or are we still only 5 minutes into The Empire Strikes Back?

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        2. Jason Boxman

          BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC announces it just targeted a US airbase in Kuwait as direct retaliation for last night’s US strikes near Bandar Abbas, calling the base “the origin of the aggression,” per Tasnim.

          The IRGC warned “if repeated, our response will be more decisive.”

          That’s a nice ceasefire you got there. Shame is something happened.

          https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2059836353982976433?s=46

          Reply ↓
          1. The Rev Kev

            This must be the Finding Out part of the process. Can’t wait for the Iranians to announce that this too will not effect the peace negotiations.

            Reply ↓

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