Iran War: New Reports of Agreement on Memo of Understanding Effectively Shot Down by Bessent as He Also Repeats Threats Against Oman; Israel Attacks Beirut; More Warnings of Energy Price Cliff Plus Claim Trump Made Illegal Below-Market SPR Sales

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1. The Rev Kev May 29, 2026 at 7:26 am

   My analysis of the current state of negotiations shows that the US and Iran are finally about to sign a peace deal after a few more minor things are agreed upon. That would be sanctions relief, Iran’s nuclear program, exit fees for shipping from the Gulf of Hormuz, reparations for Iran, the return of Iran’s currency seized by other countries, the state of Iran’s nuclear dust and its future location, the withdrawal of US bases in the region, an end to all attacks on Iran and it’s allies, the state of Iran’s missile program and a UN security council resolution making any deal binding. Otherwise a signing ceremony is all good to go.

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   1. JohnnyGL May 29, 2026 at 7:58 am

      Sooo…around 95% there, it sounds like…

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   2. JW May 29, 2026 at 8:07 am

      You missed out the ‘insignificant’ detail of Israel/Gaza/West Bank and Lebanon. Yeah, almost good to go!

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      1. jrkrideau May 29, 2026 at 8:18 pm

         I’d say Lebanon is the key point. Iran is not going to abandon a key ally on political grounds and I suspect some aspects of Shi’a’ jurisprudence also forbid it.

         Danny Davis of Deep Dive has just had Nima Alkhorshid as an interviewee and Nima is definite that peace in Lebanon is non-negotiable.

         As far as I know Nima does not have any “in’s” with senior Gov’t officials but he was in visiting family, etc., during the last riots and probably contacting old friends from University plus he keeps up with the Farsi media so I tend to think he may have a decent grasp on the general opinion in Iran.

         It’s a rather fascinating interview.
         https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lyrJ6xbrxw

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   3. DJG, Reality Czar May 29, 2026 at 8:40 am

      Rev Kev: Yep, I already have my invitation to the peace-document signing and the dinner afterwards with Volodymyr Zelensky as master of ceremonies, for a fee, and special Chicken Kiev as the entrée, all at the golden ballroom of the Baku Hilton.

      Or else, we get blabbermouth Bessent blabbering again:

      we will have no reason to stop Netanyahu from carrying out his normal work.

      Translation: Accomplice Bessent explains Dr. Mengele to the world.

      There is no forgiveness for a statement like that.

      The U.S. elites have no resolution to the mess that they have made. They cannot negotiate with Iran — because they no longer know how to nor care to. They have no resolution to the slaughter in the Levant — just let the Israelis continue on in Gaza, the West Bank, and, now, Lebanon. They can’t deal with the Russians. U.S. colonialism and imperialism go on and on.

      But Scott Bessent is a gay icon!

      And the Hitler Rants on YouTube are, without a doubt, wildly funny. But they are fiction. Now we are seeing new Hitler Rants — Bessent, Hegseth (who talks like a defective robot from the Jetsons), Trump. Maybe someone should remind them what happens at the very (real) end of those Hitler Rants. Necropolitics and cyanide capsules.

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      1. t May 29, 2026 at 9:09 am

         “His normal work” is quite a phrase.

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      2. tegnost May 29, 2026 at 10:22 am

         we will have no reason to stop Netanyahu from carrying out his normal work.

         I think that was Hegseth, which to my eye makes it more astonishing…

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         1. DJG, Reality Czar May 29, 2026 at 10:41 am

            tegnost: You are correct. The quote is from Hegseth, and I made a mistake.

            The kindest way of describing what should be Hegseth’s fate is a Nuremberg Trial.

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   4. Dingleberry May 29, 2026 at 12:01 pm

      If this happens while Israel continues to subsume Gaza, West Bank, and southern Lebanon it would be a strategic defeat for the Resistance but a victory for Iran.

      But Iran must know that once the Resistance is defeated, they’re next (again) on the chopping block.

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      1. EY Oakland May 29, 2026 at 12:34 pm

         Well, you have to add Turkey to that scenario, Bibi doing his normal work and all. There’s quite a list growing in Tel Aviv.

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   5. EY Oakland May 29, 2026 at 12:28 pm

      Can’t believe you left out a very important detail, the agreement by Iran to change it’s official name to Trumplandia. It seems there’s one holdout on that but progress is being made.

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2. Carolinian May 29, 2026 at 8:01 am

   Re Israel can be saved by secularism–the problem is that we’ve been hearing this same claim for decades now. The counter is that this state founded by atheists has at base a settler/colonial mentality that has little to do with religion. Ben Gurion’s widely quoted crack was “I don’t believe in God but I do believe God gave Palestine to the Jews.”

   And personally I don’t believe the claimed to be powerful Christian Zionist faction in this country is all it is said to be. Here’s suggesting most of them came for the prosperity gospel and got their Israel ideas from their heavily bribed preachers. Take away the prosperity and they’ll start taking real life Armageddon a lot more seriously.

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   1. swm009 May 29, 2026 at 8:34 am

      As someone who grew up in the Evangelical community, I would agree and disagree with your statement on Christian Zionism.

      First off, not everyone came for the “prosperity gospel”, the church I grew up in did not even really teach it. What made it appealing, I believe, was that they would not have to live through the hardships of the end times.

      As it is with most groups (or cults if you want to be harsh), the leaders are never true believers in what they speak, they are simply cynics taking advantage of the people around them for their own gain.

      However as the movement progress, the people who were indoctrinated DO believe, they believe that it is true and they become the next propagators of the faith. Also, this leadership does not like to be challenged, if you disagree you are basically cast out, so they protect their positions by disposing of those who would challenge their doctrinal positions.

      So at this point, the movement has survived and calcified long enough to have true believers in positions of authority within these religious organizations and they will continue to believe, at least amongst the over 50 crowd. So, unfortunately, I do not see Christian Zionism dying out for at least the next 20 years, if not longer.

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      1. Laughingsong May 29, 2026 at 1:01 pm

         “As it is with most groups (or cults if you want to be harsh), the leaders are never true believers in what they speak, they are simply cynics taking advantage of the people around them for their own gain.”

         Reminds me of Voltaire: ”Religion began when the first scoundrel met the first fool.”

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      2. Richard May 29, 2026 at 3:41 pm

         “Also, this leadership does not like to be challenged, if you disagree you are basically cast out, so they protect their positions by disposing of those who would challenge their doctrinal positions.”

         This is also a good way of looking at what Trump is doing to the Republicans.

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   2. LawnDart May 29, 2026 at 9:38 am

      Do not underestimate them: the Christian Zionists are very powerful and well-organized– Chris Hedges has covered the movement extensively. And most of them don’t broadcast their affiliations, so how would one recognize them? We don’t exactly see them sporting “CZ” armbands and marching around in jackboots, yet.

      CZs began infiltrating government through school boards and small, local elected office at least 50-years ago, and today they are rife throughout the highest levels of government– including the White House. Make no mistake, if you are not one of them, you are a contaminant that needs to be removed from their vision of society. I worked against them in elections, and I was married to one for long enough to get a peek into their world. Most of them personally are “authoritarian follower” types psychologically, and move through the world blinders on, focused on their leaders: the gospel these leaders preach is truth, and all else is lies– Satan’s lies.

      Compared to these folk, Jim Jones was a piker.

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   3. vidimi May 29, 2026 at 9:41 am

      zionism is primarily a supremacist movement, religion is its primary justification

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   4. Lefty Godot May 29, 2026 at 12:01 pm

      There are too many very rich men behind the Christian Zionist heresy. It will stick around as long as they have the money to keep backing it. Some followers may peel away, but for most, as with Democrat voters, it’s a matter of where else would they go?

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3. John Wright May 29, 2026 at 8:04 am

   I don’t understand why China is pulling oil from reserves.

   It would seem better for them to buy oil for current consumption on the world market while the USA is attempting to keep the price low.

   Then, when the looming oil shortage occurs, China would be in a better place relative to the USA and China’s reserves would have a higher market and strategic value.

   China pulling oil from reserves is helping the USA.

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   1. JW May 29, 2026 at 8:13 am

      As the people saying this probably don’t have much of a clue about how much oil China is now getting from Russia, Brazil, Nigeria etc they assume a net calculated ‘guess’ amount is coming from reserves. I agree with you, it would be pretty daft given the ability to play the market.

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      1. ISL May 29, 2026 at 10:57 am

         Absolutely.

         Well-informed commentators, like Inside China Business, clearly state NO ONE outside the CCP upper-level officials knows the size of China’s reserves. It’s all (three significant digits) guesses. If China was to announce official numbers, I would argue China should not report the real numbers.

         Probably what happened is that some of the reserves were sold to friendly nations (recorded) for geopolitical reasons (while more oil was brought into the reserves (as you note) from non-Western-integrated sources).

         Also, China is a major oil producer. That means they easily could have lots of underground storage. Which is exactly what you want if you foresee a US war (repeatedly stated by the US) where the US bombs your above-ground storage.

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   2. Cardiac May 29, 2026 at 9:36 am

      As an export-economy already struggling with an overproduction / overcapacity problem, China’s economy depends on American consumer-spending (and the consumer spending of other countries, of course). High oil prices = demand destruction = reduced spending. China is helping China, at least in the short term.

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      1. ISL May 29, 2026 at 11:14 am

         A simple google search reveals NO. China depends on the US for 14.8% 2023 (rapidly decreasing! I have heard it is estimated currently at 11%) – 4% its economy. A 25% Great Depression level reduction (and the US has no alternative for most products) is 1% of its economy.

         China depends on the global economy. China does NOT depend on the US economy anymore (except if a US Great Depression kills the global economy).

         But that raises the real (Thucydides’ trap) question: Global Great Depression versus the US no longer a geopolitical wild cannon. China makes stuff! They would come out of it intact. The US loses half its population in a few years – no meds, no diesel, no food, and then China/Russia foment civil wars, aka Syria – karma. Drive the US population to 50 million, and the main threat to world peace will be absent for decades to a century.

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         1. Yves Smith Post authorMay 29, 2026 at 11:33 am

            That is not so clear.

            Immediately after the US imposed tariffs, China exports to the US fell sharply and to SE Asia rose a lot…..in a period of so-so growth here.

            Was China channel-stuffing? Maybe but it seems more likely routing product through SE Asia. US controls re country of origin are poor.

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            1. Peter Steckel May 29, 2026 at 1:17 pm

               Agreed. I was teaching English in Shanghai in the early 2000s and that gave me entre in to some circles one would normally not get entrance to (something akin to a music teacher going to teach the rich kids’ piano, one could pick up something about the lay of the land just by hanging out with the family, so to speak). Several industrialists’ college age children told me their families simply exported materials from China to a third country, such as Indonesia, where it was relabeled and sent on its way.

               I expect it has only become more widespread.

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         2. John k May 29, 2026 at 1:24 pm

            Us was biggest exporter in 1929, we were hardest hit in 30’s. China is in that position now.
            Imo 15% loss of gulf oil means 15% less all activity, except 30% less fertilizer means food production probably falls further. It takes 100mmb/d good quality oil to support 8+ b people, 15% reduction implies fewer people. But not necessarily less co2, closed coal plants might belch back into life.

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         3. ISL May 30, 2026 at 6:30 pm

            If we assume half US exports are rerouted and then drop by 25% due to a great depression level downturn, that still is not enough to shift growth rates negative.

            As the Russian joke goes – two guys in a tent are awakened by the roar of an oncoming bear. One starts running barefoot, the other instead puts on his running shoes. Why asks the running guy. The other answers – I do not have to outrun the bear, just you.

            However, a global downturn (very likely) is a different beast entirely. But the solution to the global downturn is not arising from the US.

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4. raspberry jam May 29, 2026 at 8:06 am

   a little more context on the secular-theocratic split in Israel:

   – the great Ilan Pappe essay The Collapse of Zionism from 2024 describes the shape of the split

   – for those who say, But the next PM will just do the same as Netanyahu – please read an overview of the 2018-2022 Israeli political crisis, where it took 5 tries to hold a governing coalition longer than 6 months because the seculars were rioting to prevent Netanyahu from getting back into office. The only way Netanyahu was able to cross the coalition threshold was by doing the unthinkable, allying with the Kahanists and exploiting the split which had previously been seen as too far (Ben Gvir was on terrorist sanction lists until he was appointed to the cabinet). The split has been building since the Second Intifada and had already gone critical before 10/7. Paradoxically, the Gaza War was the only thing that could have held it off this long. But this does not mean the majority of the population has coalesced behind the theocratic wing: if it had we would be seeing a strong theocratic front runner in the election right now, and there is none.

   – There are major historical fault lines within Judaism around allowing the rabbis to take control over civilian and non-religious matters. These were part of the early founding memories of the state and that is a big reason why the state initially skewed social Democratic and secular instead of theocratic. These fault lines have been exacerbated by the Kahanists as part of the settler project. You see this in the disgusting abuses by the settler rabbis and their communities regarding sexual violence against minors and the ongoing problems Netanyahu has had in ramming through some of the things the Kahanist and Haredi parties wanted, like religious courts over secular matters.

   – the Kahanists do not have the backing to remain in any ruling coalition after Netanyahu. They are the most likely target for blame after this is over, especially by the larger haredi parties and certainly the seculars. The Kahanists are not “normal” ultra-orthodox; the best introduction to them are the Sarah Kendzior piece and this In These Times piece.

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   1. Carolinian May 29, 2026 at 8:50 am

      There are those who say Israel’s real religion is not Judaism but the Holocaust. Their children are heavily indoctrinated with a narrative saying that the world has an irrational hatred of Jews that a fresh Holocaust can happen at any time.

      And yes indeed before the state was formed many religious Jews said that forming it was contrary to the beliefs of Judaism.

      So your notion that the end of Netanyahu will save Israel doesn’t address the true origins of the state and why it is there. One must ask whether the defeat of the Kahanists will bring Israel any closer to the “one state solution” that is anathema to all factions in the state going by reports I have read.

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      1. raspberry jam May 29, 2026 at 9:00 am

         Quite a lot of assumptions and straw mans in your comment and I am not playing your game! If you want to pick fights over your perception of my beliefs because of your own beliefs about Israel and Judaism you need to learn how to engage without making accusations like “my notion of the end of Netanyahu will save Israel” is part of my commentary here! Why don’t you read some of the links I shared about the split and consider you are simply looking for reasons to argue against a point I am not making!

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         1. Carolinian May 29, 2026 at 9:17 am

            You are correct that I am removed from this issue compared to yourself and I believe the USA should be equally removed–totally removed.

            By this view it is the elites and the Israelis who are playing a game and manipulating the world into an obsession with the tiny country’s fate and policies. The mess that Yves has been describing in these columns never should have happened!

            If you want to argue that there’s a rational way out you might want to start with Gaza.

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   2. DJG, Reality Czar May 29, 2026 at 8:57 am

      raspberry jam: Your analysis is good, and you marshal your facts. But the secularists cannot and will not guide the Israeli government toward any meaningful peace.

      —The secularists cannot and will not end the torture regime in the prisons and against the Flotilla, just as U.S. liberals cannot and will not end the systemic abuses and torture by DHS and ICE.
      —The secularists cannot and will not deal with politicians like Smotrich, who should go on trial, let alone Ben-Gvir.
      —The secularists are much too compromised to deal with the situation in the West Bank. Who is going to prevail over the lawlessness of the illegal settlements? We will be back to the usual “but it could become a civil war” excuse. And who is going to revoke the bogus permits given to the illegal settlers — not even to mention shutting down the settlements.
      —The secularists, like U.S. liberals, have no intention of reforming themselves.
      —And Lebanon, which Israelis of all stripes have enjoyed bullying.
      —And who controls the rightwing violence? The secularists?

      The situation is dire, but expecting some Elizabeth Warren (sheesh) or J.D. Vance (sheesh) to show up and get the Israelis out of their mess is a matter of low probability. The best anyone can expect is another hung parliament, not that a hung parliament will change the pattern of war crimes against the Palestinians and Lebanese.

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      1. raspberry jam May 29, 2026 at 9:12 am

         DJG, I respect your commentary here, but I said nothing about the secularists saving Israel or the US coming to save the day. In fact I’ve been very consistent that my position is the only possible way a state of Israel survives the current conflagration is a combination of rejecting the Kahanists, switching vassalage from the US to Russia, becoming neutral, and full citizenship rights for Palestinians in a single state.

         The only route there is a humiliating and violent defeat that is seen as being the fault of Netanyahu and the settler project. What do you think is underway?

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         1. Oregon Lawhobbit May 29, 2026 at 9:49 am

            and full citizenship rights for Palestinians in a single state.

            Is that even possible? From either side? Would there be – CAN there be – any social coalition of Israelis that would accept Palestinians as full citizens of Israel (setting aside what I understand are some seriously disparate birthrate issues)? And is there really any chance of Palestinians going forgive and forget (or at least forgive) decades of abuse?

            My take on the second, at least, is that there are a lot of Palestinians who’d just like to get on with their lives without worrying about lawless behavior by a different tribe in the area. But as for the first….well, that’s why I’m asking the opinion of a demonstrated Local Source. :-)

            I know enough to have some opinions, and one of those opinions is “I don’t know enough and would like to know more.”

            An opinion not limited to the ME issue by any means… ;-)

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            1. raspberry jam May 29, 2026 at 10:10 am

               Is it possible from the Palestinian side? Read the Pappe piece I linked above, point 6. Pappe is an (anti-Zionist) Israeli historian, despite this being from 2024 I suspect the energy on the Palestinian side remains the same now as then.

               Is it possible from the Israeli side? For the first time since 10/7 the current electoral front runners are talking about potentially forming coalitions with Arab Israeli parties instead of ultra-orthodox parties to keep Likud (and any potential Netanyahu or Netanyahu-designated successor) out of the coalition. Further, Bennett (the current front runner) has stated he is in favor of full citizenship provided they serve in the IDF. Yes, that is batshit and unlikely in this moment. The fact remains that this is even being discussed seriously in public means the tectonic shift is already happening.

               Finally, the entire rationale for a hyper-militarized state falls apart if the military is seen as unable to do their duty (as is now playing out with the ongoing inability to decisively defeat Hezbollah, Hamas or Iran). So the citizenship based on IDF service is kind of a red herring IMHO. When the defeat can be pinned on Netanyahu there is a small chance that a Bennett PM can make the switch to Russia when the US abandons Israel (Bennett has good relations with Putin) and the price for Russia enforcing a form of security over Israel will be neutrality, demobilization, and full rights for Palestinians in a single state.

               I refuse to get drawn into discussions about whether the seculars are “capable” of this. Nor will I lay odds on any of this actually happening. I’m saying there is a slim path to peace where a Jewish state of Israel isn’t fully obliterated, and based on my familiarity with the country I see indications movements are being made in that direction, but there is no guarantee it will happen. What I do NOT see is evidence there is some huge groundswell of support for further theocratic militarization, which is what I see a lot of assumptions around, especially related to the use of nukes.

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               1. hemeantwell May 29, 2026 at 11:28 am

                  Thank you for your analysis, rj. The question I have is the extent to which sections of the Israeli far right are convinced that they are in an eschatologically-defined situation, implying that all actions are permitted and that they will succeed if they fight hard enough, if they are “sincerely” ruthless. If they see their political position eroding without a possibility of recovery by pursuing strategies that have brought them this far, would they resort to terrorism against both secular and non-Kahanist right wingers? Something like the Bennett option you mention would be absolutely intolerable to them.

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                  1. raspberry jam May 29, 2026 at 1:30 pm

                     If they see their political position eroding without a possibility of recovery by pursuing strategies that have brought them this far, would they resort to terrorism against both secular and non-Kahanist right wingers?

                     This is what I was alluding to in the quote Yves posted today about internal pressures. I’ve stated here before that one possible end to this is Israel collapses into civil war. This is very likely if there is no clear denouement of Gaza and Lebanon after Netanyahu but the theocratic wing does not fully regain power. Compounded by Iran going kinetic against civilian infrastructure after Israel is given a chance at electoral regime change.

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               2. Oregon Lawhobbit May 29, 2026 at 12:25 pm

                  The Pappe article was definitely worth the read! Thank you for the recommendation.

                  There do seem to be a lot of parallels to South Africa, with the possibility of a fight between factions tossed in as well.

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               3. vao May 29, 2026 at 12:42 pm

                  “Bennett has good relations with Putin”

                  As a reminder: Bennett mediated between Ukraine and Russia in 2022, during the negotiations to put an early end to the war. Later, he publicly revealed that an agreement was at hand but that Boris Johnson sabotaged it.

                  So perhaps Bennett is better atuned to the necessity of compromises and dealing honestly with the people sitting on the other side of the table — but what I could gather from his Wikipedia page did not give me the definite impression of an accommodating politician.

                  His positions do not look different from those of any other active high-ranking Israeli politician (a Palestinian state is out of question; Israel should not care about Gaza civilians; should proceed with the annexation of large parts of the West Bank; should inflict a “thousand cuts” to Iran…). He started his political career by leading a religious party after all, and according to Wikipedia “is Israel’s first kippah-wearing prime minister.” Thus his commitment to secularism seems doubtful to me. Furthermore, he is described as “more right wing than Netanyahu.”

                  On the other hand, it was a stallwart proponent of Apartheid, Frederik de Klerk, who freed Mandela and initiated the end of the regime, so…

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                  1. raspberry jam May 29, 2026 at 1:44 pm

                     Bennett is a coward, a war criminal, and above all, an opportunist obsessed with being a big man of history. I do not “like” him in any way. But it’s the particular combination of his opportunism, ambition, and connection to Putin plus his current very hard opposition to the Haredi and Kahanists that make me think he could be the only one to wind down the settler state.

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                     1. Offtrail May 29, 2026 at 3:07 pm

                        rj, trusting for tactical reasons in a leader whose character is rotten is futile. Look at Trump. I didn’t vote for him, but I did think that his opposition to war was genuine.

                        Thank you for posting here. You must have a strong constitution.

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                     2. vao May 29, 2026 at 4:15 pm

                        After reading (or re-reading, I had already read Pappe’s contribution) the articles you listed, I am even more uncertain as to what role Bennett would play.

                        Obviously, Kahanists and their like are dangerous fanatics. One would have to be not just shrewed and cunning, but also ruthless to keep them at bay. And ready to take deadly risks, as Kahanists are obviously not adverse to assault those whom they view as enemies (the case of Yitzhak Rabin comes to mind; his killer seems to have come from a similar ideological movement even if not directly from the Kahanist party).

                        All that would imply somebody with strong convictions as to what the social and political future of Israel should be.

                        And now Bennett, whom you deem a coward and an opportunist, should fill that role and “wind down the settler state”? I am puzzled. Or are suggesting his thrashing about in the muddle of Israeli politics and Near Easter diplomacy may achieve that inadvertently or unwittingly?

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                        1. raspberry jam May 29, 2026 at 5:27 pm

                           I call Bennett a coward because of his involvement in the Qana massacre (links from multiple perspectives: 1, 2, 3). I call him an opportunist because he has changed his political stance multiple times throughout his career (up until 2020 or so he was considered Netanyahu’s successor and served as his chief of staff at least once). Another relevant bit of detail is that he has very strong connections to the Silicon Valley miltech startup scene in the US. This is just background to understanding his political character.

                           You say this,

                           Obviously, Kahanists and their like are dangerous fanatics. One would have to be not just shrewed and cunning, but also ruthless to keep them at bay.

                           I have to tell you, I think you’re giving the Kahanists too much credit in terms of staying power. While they are dangerous fanatics, what Ben Gvir is good at is media manipulation for his base. What Smotrich is good at is diverting government money to the settlements. Neither of them command a political voting bloc larger than 2-3%. Netanyahu pulled them into the coalition to save his ass after he failed to hold a government together multiple times because the centrist and further left parties tried to push him out of politics by refusing to form a government with him, despite winning the electoral contests. He had to cultivate Ben Gvir (for the Israeli media) across at least one of those cycles to even get that far. Israel suffers from a similar problem as the US where the cost of living relative to wages is so high that there is a huge (Jewish Israeli) population living in poverty. This is the source of voting power for the various patchwork of right and religious parties: like in the US, the political and religious parties buy votes with various types of entitlements or grants to offset the poverty, but this cannot ever interfere with the property valuations.

                           I presume the majority here agree that we are heading towards a set of inflection points with regard to Israel:

                           – Iran will, at some point, directly target Israeli civilian infrastructure if there is no clear change in Zionist trajectory;
                           – US will, at some point, run out of materiel and be forced to abandon military support of Israel;
                           – Israel will, later this year, hold an election where potentially new leadership will be elected in (but there is no guarantee that election will produce a governing coalition because the underlying split has still not resolved);

                           Consider the possible state of play in late November of this year when the US midterms and the Israeli elections are over and the global economy has seized up. Let’s suppose we have Bennett as a PM in a weak (non-supermajority) coalition with a mixed group of centrist, center-right, and one of the Arab parties. The Kahanists are out of power, but Gaza and Lebanon are still smoldering. No military breakthrough, US dealing with political and economic chaos, Israel is further isolated internationally but possibly selling weapons to Europe if they’re stupid enough to be more direct against Russia. In this situation, Iran and Russia can make a simple offer: end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, turn over your nukes to Russia, and Russia will guarantee Israel’s safety against Iran. If no, evacuate the civilians and prepare for Iran to destroy anything that could be plausibly utilized to continue the war.

                           If you are an opportunist and a coward you’re not going to counter that with letting the nukes fly? No, you’re going to accept the terms and spin it as a pivot to a new “big brother” while bemoaning how the US stabbed you in the back and abandoned you in your time of need. While simultaneously speaking privately to the US miltech power base: Israel can continue to be of assistance even in this new state, but keep it quiet.

                           And even if it plays out similar to this it is still very possible there is a civil war.

                           Remember though: I say this is a SLIM possibility. Israelis have also been heavily propagandized against Russia since 2022. When I’ve probed the Israelis I know about this outcome they are horrified: they simply cannot imagine the US will ever abandon them. In the event (when) it happens, the psychological damage will be immense and shattering. It’s easy to imagine an extinction burst reaction (aka firing the nukes) but there are so, so many people who have to make the same decision in order for that to happen. Only one has to disagree for the chain to fail. I presume there are enough who care about themselves, their own children, their own wealth to take the offer of safety when it comes.

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                           1. vao May 29, 2026 at 6:04 pm

                              Regarding the Kahanists, the articles you suggested clearly imply that they are enduring (since the early 1970s) across ups and downs. The movement survived the death of its founder, found new leaders; it has an influence that reaches well beyond its raw membership or electorate — and it has grown over the decades. Besides, Kahanists are armed and dangerous; who knows what young, ambitious Kahanists are waiting to succeed Ben Gvir & co. So I am not sure they can be dismissed that lightly (again, the fate of Yitzhak Rabin comes to mind).

                              The scenario you depict regarding a shift towards Russia is intriguing, but since you assign it a slim chance of succeeding, I tend even more to believe that an inconsistent person like Bennett will not achieve much. To bring a historical analogy: the settlers in the West Bank seem to form the storm troops of the Kahanists. One would need somebody as resolute as De Gaulle, who sent the army to crush the OAS (the armed organization of French settlers in Algeria) — despite the fact that a part of the French army sided with the OAS (and rebelled against him), and that De Gaulle himself escaped (sometimes narrowly) several assassination attempts by the OAS (even after Algeria was lost and the OAS had been defeated).

                              My view is from far away of course, but to me it seems that the future of Israel is one big uncertainty — with the possibility of internal chaos that you mention, or simply politicians kicking the can down the road somehow while the situation rots further. I always found internal Israeli politics confusing, and the information you just brought leaves quite many question marks standing.
                           2. raspberry jam May 29, 2026 at 6:42 pm

                              (this is a reply to Vao)

                              I think the OAS is an imperfect analogy for the settlers because the OAS was, based on my understanding, far better trained and possessed far more cohesion compared to the settlers. The IDF and the settlers are already regularly skirmishing and it’s literally rocks and sticks vs an actual military force. What has been lacking until this point is the political will to rein them in, because it has been useful for the political leadership to see how much land grabbing they can get away with. A further issue with the settlers acting as the Kahanist shock troops is each settlement for the most part has their own rabbi(s) and they may or may not be Kahanist. I agree they’re dangerous, obviously, but I think the danger is more around assassinations and terror attacks against the urban dwellers and political leadership.

                              I agree with you that the future of Israel is very uncertain and likely to be chaotic. I’m really not sure how much longer they can continue to keep kicking the can down the road, though. I think if Israel returns to political crisis then we could see something like Iran making a few high-value strikes on military and weapons manufacturing sites and then just sit back while Israel collapses into civil war. Kind of a reverse mowing the lawn. As long as there is no government Israel won’t be able to do much in terms of big strikes in retaliation. At that point the internal pressure from the northern and southern communities due to Lebanon and Gaza respectively would probably force some type of state change in the occupations (eg invasion from an outside army) but that’s just too far out in conjecture for me to really have a feel for what would happen then.
         2. Steve H. May 29, 2026 at 10:13 am

            Thank you, raspberry jam. Janet introduced me to Sarah Kendzior, it’s confirmation to have you highlight the piece.

            Reply ↓
            1. Nat Wilson Turner May 29, 2026 at 11:41 pm

               The thing about Sarah is that she was 1000% on board with Russiagate. Spewed tons of nonsense on that topic. Tons.

               Reply ↓
         3. John Steinbach May 29, 2026 at 6:57 pm

            I agree with SJ on the Israeli ideological split. Israel Shahak was writing about the emerging Kahanist menace back in the 80s & 9s. I subscribed to his “Notes From the Hebrew Press” back when Herbrew was seldom translated,

            Reply ↓
5. Michael Hudson May 29, 2026 at 8:13 am

   None of the proposed peace deals announced by Trump can be realized in practice.
   Iran has said, rightly so, that for starters it needs a release of the funds that the U.S. has grabbed, including its recent seizure of Stablecoin.
   The U.S. can’t possibly agree to any payment to Iran. The U.S. confiscation and its related bank sanctions can’t be released without Congressional approval. That seems unlikely, given South Carolina’s Lindsay Graham’s firm opposition, and that of the AIPAC-backed congressmen and senators. And Israel will not stop killing Shia in Lebanon, or Palestinians on the West Bank.
   So whatever Trump’s negotiators agree to are IRRELEVANT in practice. Trump doesn’t control the pro-war Congress or Israel.

   Reply ↓
   1. ChrisRUEcon May 29, 2026 at 8:23 am

      Yep! All this phony peace posturing is just kicking the back-to-war can down the road.

      Israel effectively dictates US policy for all the reasons MacGregor lays out. The only question is when full hostilities will return. As others have commented before, the only possible out is the GCC countries pivoting to support for Iran and withdrawing any financial support for Trump-linked businesses. The GCC Emirs are a coward lot, though. It will take a lot more “Hegsthereats” before they finally realize that the US is not a friend to them.

      Reply ↓
      1. cfraenkel May 29, 2026 at 10:08 am

         Oh it’s more than just kicking the can down the road….. it’s fluffing up the markets for another perfectly timed short sale 15 minutes before the missiles fire.

         Reply ↓
         1. ChrisRUEcon May 29, 2026 at 11:01 pm

            I never stop chortling at the “fluffer” analogy … :)

            Reply ↓
      2. Travis Bickle May 29, 2026 at 11:32 am

         The GCC reaching collective/individual understanding/s with Iran seems to be the only way out here. A remodeling of regional security could be done quietly and implemented over time (ie, closing down US bases; staging reparation). And it’d naturally start with a meaningless ease-fire.

         Otherwise, it’s a matter of regime change in Tel Aviv or Tehran, messy and hardly conclusive, assuming it happens.

         OTOH, the Gulf states may be weak and spineless, but they also have a reputation for being clever and sneaky, and they have more relevant agency and power here than commentators generally consider.

         Reply ↓
         1. Yves Smith Post authorMay 29, 2026 at 11:41 am

            We suggested that very early on as a way out but dropped that line of discussion when they all (at least for a while) sidled up even more tightly with the US and Israel.

            Reply ↓
            1. Oregon Lawhobbit May 29, 2026 at 1:03 pm

               Maybe Iran will take them on as vassal states after the dust finally settles. The Persian Empire didn’t reach into that part of the world, but BP (Before Petroleum) there wasn’t a lot there to extend the empire into.

               Reply ↓
         2. vao May 29, 2026 at 12:53 pm

            “And it’d naturally start with a meaningless ease-fire.”

            What a wonderful typo which describes perfectly how Israelis view each agreement they conclude with Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, etc: an ease-fire.

            Reply ↓
            1. Alice X May 29, 2026 at 2:47 pm

               Indeed, so apropos. Except the actual ease-fire is typically not much longer than the ink takes to dry.

               Reply ↓
   2. The Rev Kev May 29, 2026 at 8:28 am

      Iran may be taking a leaf from Richard Nixon’s playbook (from the Chapter on Chile) and intend to make the world economy scream until the US has no choice, Zionists be damned. If they don’t, then they will for sure have to contend with another US/Israel attack in the new year. Wouldn’t even matter if it was Vance as the Prez by then, the attack will come.

      Reply ↓
   3. Carolinian May 29, 2026 at 8:51 am

      We here in SC will try to help by booting Lindsey. This may be too little too late.

      Reply ↓
      1. ISL May 30, 2026 at 10:44 am

         I would appreciate the favor so the judge no longer tortures the world with Lindsey clips; but sadly, it is highly doubtful the policy would change, and he plays the role of the pig without lipstick.

         Reply ↓
   4. Yves Smith Post authorMay 29, 2026 at 10:17 am

      The sanctions have been imposed in multiple waves. From what I can tell, Congress did NOT stipulate that they approve a reversal but that the President make certifications that Trump would be unable to make. Oh, and that that requirement applies only to later sanctions:

      Congressional action has been critical to the development and expansion of U.S. sanctions on Iran. Congress authorized sanctions targeting Iran’s proliferation activities beginning in 1992 and, in 1996, enacted landmark legislation mandating the first Iran-related secondary sanctions, on foreign firms involved in the development of Iran’s oil resources (Iran has the world’s third largest proven oil reserves). After the Iranian government’s violent crackdown on mass protests over its disputed 2009 presidential election, Congress authorized sanctions on officials responsible for the crackdown and other human rights abuses. As international concern about Iran’s nuclear program increased, Congress, beginning in 2010, increased the scope of U.S. sanctions, targeting Iran’s oil exports and other economic sectors in a bid to deny the Iranian government financial resources and compel it to make policy changes. In enacting these authorities, Congress mandated that to waive or lift sanctions, the President must certify that Iran is meeting certain conditions, including that the Iranian government has ceased its support of international terrorism and its proliferation activities.

      https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12452

      That may be why $24 billion, as opposed to $100+ billion, is under discussion. That amount may be clearly not subject to the requirement above.

      Reply ↓
   5. JonnyJames May 29, 2026 at 12:21 pm

      I agree. And not to mention emperor’s mental state is not exactly stable. Even in the unlikely event of Congressional approval, it seems doubtful that the WH would follow through. They have expressed contempt for the law many times, and so many crimes and so much corruption, it is difficult to keep track.

      All this contrived theater appears to deceive in order to quell the so-called markets. Bloomberg this morning implies a settlement is “coming soon” again!

      Nothing to worry about, the US regime and Epstein Media all say things are great: S&P 500 at record levels, crude is DOWN again today! Things are great, no bubbles to be seen eh :-)

      Reply ↓
6. thoughtfulperson May 29, 2026 at 8:18 am

   Typo I believe:

   “From the machine translation:

   Arab countries are still in shock over Oman’s threat against Oman, as reported by an Al-Hadath network correspondent: Hegseth personally threatened the Qatari Prime Minister with assassination during a phone call.”

   Thanks for your reporting as always!

   Reply ↓
   1. Yves Smith Post authorMay 29, 2026 at 8:27 am

      The typo is in the machine translation!

      Reply ↓
      1. Oregon Lawhobbit May 29, 2026 at 9:51 am

         Or maybe Oman has some serious self-esteem issues?

         Reply ↓
7. Yves Smith Post authorMay 29, 2026 at 8:28 am

   All done! If you arrived before the time of this comment. please do re-skim, since the late additions were consequential.

   Reply ↓
   1. ChrisRUEcon May 29, 2026 at 8:31 am

      Thank you!

      Reply ↓
   2. JW May 29, 2026 at 8:34 am

      Thank you for a daily ‘unmissable’ event!

      Reply ↓
   3. The Rev Kev May 29, 2026 at 8:39 am

      Same here.The only sane analysis of current events to be found on the net.

      Reply ↓
   4. mrsyk May 29, 2026 at 10:01 am

      Same, thank you for keeping us informed. This is my first read every morning, save for when I’m taking a mental health break from the madness.

      Reply ↓
      1. JonnyJames May 29, 2026 at 1:33 pm

         I agree with the above: thank you NC. Yves kicks ass! Any site where Michael Hudson comments has to be the highest caliber. And the commentariat is the best, and we have some great humor to help with the dismal nature of current events.

         I too take breaks from the madness, hikes in the redwood forest up in the coast range, hangin out by the ocean, a bit of fishing now and then. We all need to take care of mental health

         Reply ↓
8. JW May 29, 2026 at 8:33 am

   Apologies if its already been linked, courtesy of ‘indi.ca’, Hezbollah’s Greatest Hits, the last video of the orchestra on the hill top ranks up there with the best of the ‘Iranian lego’.
   https://indi.ca/hezbollahs-greatest-hits/

   Reply ↓
   1. The Rev Kev May 29, 2026 at 9:23 am

      Thanks for that link as it is quite interesting. Not often you can see terrorists being actually terrorized themselves. Just from those film clips you can see that the IDF is lying about casualties in Lebanon. Funny thing. They sometimes show those Hezbollah attack clips on the TV news here in Oz – but make sure to cut that video before the FPV drone starts to make its final dive. Guess that it would upset too many people to show Hezbollah successes.

      Reply ↓
      1. vao May 29, 2026 at 1:07 pm

         I prefer to view those battlefield reports when they are individually published by Hezbollah instead of those large compilations, because the succession of videos makes it easier to detect changes in tactics (by both sides), and to observe the evolution of the propaganda that Hezbollah is addressing to the public (which includes Israelis).

         For instance, there has been a progressive reduction in showing Hezbollah fighters lobbing barrages of rockets and artillery rounds in favour of filming FPV drones flying over the countryside and crashing into hapless Israeli targets — which seem to include less Merkavas, and more iron dome launchers and communication vehicles recently.

         Reply ↓
   2. Silo Man May 29, 2026 at 11:36 am

      And speaking of https://indi.ca there is this relating to the above Israel discussion:
      https://indi.ca/israel-is-the-last-jewish-ghetto/

      Reply ↓
      1. Lefty Godot May 29, 2026 at 12:21 pm

         Well, indi is fun when he’s on a roll, like all great ranters, but he leans too heavily into his “evil White people” shtick as the explanation for everything wrong in the world. And he may think Jews are not true “White” people and that Israel is the last ghetto, but he apparently forgets that there are more Jews in the US and that they are overrepresented in every category of economic well-being and social influence here. For 2¼% of the US population overall, they have around 30% of the millionaires, probably a greater percentage of the actors and actresses familiar to most people, majority control of the “news” and “entertainment” media, and very high numbers in senior government positions and among tenured faculty at prestige universities. That is the kind of ghetto most ethnic groups would love to live in.

         Reply ↓
      2. vao May 29, 2026 at 3:12 pm

         This article at indi.ca jibes with my own contention — which I exposed in this forum repeatedly — that those who so staunchly “stand with Israel” are covert antisemites who want to keep Jews away from Europe.

         Since those same people are racists who also deeply hate Arabs and Muslims in general, having a Jewish state in the Levant kills two birds with one stone since Israelis are so proficient at killing Arabs.

         Israel is not an (imperial) asset, but a liability: geostrategically poorly located, too small and narrow to be defensible, economically dispensible, without major agricultural or mineral resources, technologically replaceable, militarily useless (Western nations are always coming to the rescue of Israel, never the converse), culturally ignored. Its only interest is to keep Jews far and away from Europe (and the USA).

         Reply ↓
   3. lyman alpha blob May 29, 2026 at 11:51 am

      Here’s another from Electronic Intifada. It has many of the same videos as the ones in your link. Check it around the 19:30 mark where a Hezbollah drone attacks a Zionist command center that looks to have been set up in a residential building. A guard sees the drone coming and runs away, but leaves the door open. The drone flies right in and detonates, and I believe one of the casualties was the IDF commander who had ordered the attack on the little Palestinian girl, Hind Rajib.

      Reply ↓
9. Objective Ace May 29, 2026 at 8:47 am

   >U.S. War Minister Hegseth, in a direct call on Monday night, June 4, with Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Rahman, threatened him with assassination

   So last year?.. or is this a typo with respect to the date

   Reply ↓
   1. Yves Smith Post authorMay 29, 2026 at 10:22 am

      June 4 2025 was not a Monday.

      This seems to be a second error in the Twitter machine translation.

      Reply ↓
      1. Irrational May 29, 2026 at 11:25 am

         May 4?

         Reply ↓
10. ilsm May 29, 2026 at 8:57 am

    We talk a lot about crude oil, but what about natural gas (NG)?

    IIRC the SOH transits ~20% of internationally traded LNG. That is off the market since March.

    While US is depleting the crude oil from SPR, it has modestly increased already elevated exports of LNG to cover some of the lost Persian Gulf delivery.

    NG in Northeast USA produces a lot of electricity, so much so that in cold snaps generation is switched from NG to oil so that the more existential use of NG to heat homes and businesses does not interrupt!

    US export of LNG spiked and stayed up after the Ukraine SMO, it is modestly higher since March.

    Reply ↓
    1. In Cold Chud May 29, 2026 at 11:04 am

       The natural gas situation is interesting. Natural gas generates just over 40% of US electricity. Peaker plants tend to be natural gas, and so peak electricity generation by natural gas is even higher (though I could not quickly find a number on this).

       A major driver of peak electricity demand is air conditioning, a fact that could take on outsized importance this summer, given that we are set to experience the most powerful El Nino on record.

       Then there are those data centers.

       And while every discussion of US natural gas includes the fact that there’s so much of it in the Permian Basin that it’s being flared, this represents a bottleneck, which pipeline capacity has not yet been eliminated (though there are a couple of projects set to be completed later this year).

       Reply ↓
11. Tom Stone May 29, 2026 at 9:08 am

    The Ramadan War is widely seen as Israel’s War for good reason and Israel’s support in the USA was rapidly declining before the War.
    Massie’s crack about Gallrein being hard to get on the phone because “He’s in Tel Aviv” struck home.
    Many Americans feel that the Zionists now own the USG and they are becoming increasingly unhappy about it, which is further destabilizing Civil Society at a time of real crisis., climate change.
    It’s going to be a lively Summer.

    Reply ↓
    1. Oregon Lawhobbit May 29, 2026 at 9:54 am

       It’s going to be a lively Summer

       Fortunately Molotov Cocktails will be too expensive for the typical malcontent to produce…. :-)

       Reply ↓
       1. ambrit May 29, 2026 at 11:58 am

          s/ I think you can buy them in bulk for a reasonable price on Alibaba. /s

          Reply ↓
       2. vao May 29, 2026 at 1:13 pm

          Those who would like to go for the out-of-fashion “tipping kettle” are also out of luck — it requires sulphuric acid (becoming scarce because of Hormuz), and sugar (becoming expensive because not enough fertilizer).

          Reply ↓
    2. Rex May 29, 2026 at 2:59 pm

       Many younger Americans think the government is run and owned by Zionists. Unfortunately, they have limited political influence. Even though they will bear the costs of prior generations’ wasteful support of that country.

       Older Americans are still heavily pro-Israel and their political influence will not fade for another 20-30 years.

       Maybe one day we will find a solution to 50-80-year-olds governing this country on a short-term basis. Because they know they will not have to live with the consequences of such a mindset.

       Reply ↓
12. The Rev Kev May 29, 2026 at 10:00 am

    I sometimes think that this is Trump’s methodology for negotiating-

    ‘If I don’t know what I am doing, then the Iranians won’t know either.’

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit May 29, 2026 at 12:15 pm

       I flashed on an image of the ending of the film “White Heat.”
       The Orange hued one standing on top of a huge oil storage tank screaming at the crowd below:
       “Made it Dad! Top of the World!”
       See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miQkf4YHgVo
       We are toast! By fall, make that flatbread, pan fried over a hobo stove.
       Stay safe.

       Reply ↓
13. Ann May 29, 2026 at 10:09 am

    Nato ready to defend ‘every inch’ of territory as Russian drone hits Romania

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/29/russian-drone-romanian-apartments-wounding-two-people-and-starting-fire

    Romanian foreign minister says Russian drone incident could justify invoking NATO Article 4 consultations

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/29/8036886/

    Leaks reveal US authorities concerned about the rise of ‘anti-tech extremists’ as AI data center issues become increasingly contentious — critics say this could lead to surveillance, criminalization of peaceful opposition

    https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/leaks-reveal-us-authorities-concerned-about-the-rise-of-anti-tech-extremists-as-ai-data-center-issues-become-increasingly-contentious-critics-say-this-could-lead-to-surveillance-criminalization-of-peaceful-opposition

    Israeli minister confirms goal of large-scale expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/28/israels-defence-minister-says-large-scale-palestinian-migration-from-gaza-will-go-ahead

    Reply ↓
    1. tegnost May 29, 2026 at 10:46 am

       critics say this could lead to surveillance, criminalization of peaceful opposition

       The barn door closed on that a loooong time ago…

       Reply ↓
       1. ambrit May 29, 2026 at 12:18 pm

          We’re just waiting for “Wrongthink” being made justification for involuntary commitment to a FEMA Re-education Centre.
          Stay safe. Avoid Imperial Entanglements.

          Reply ↓
          1. Alice X May 29, 2026 at 3:07 pm

             May I now reinforce what those who have taken too much would mis-describe as a darker side? My Re-education camps would be for them, those who have taken too much; too much wealth, too much power. I mean to liberate them from what must be an internal hollowness of the human heart. I mean to set them free of their folly, if I could wave a wand I would. Be kind to and of this world.

             Reply ↓
             1. Ex-PFC Chuck May 29, 2026 at 4:01 pm

                At this point it’s appropriate to repeat an anecdote Yves passed on while introducing a post a couple of months ago:

                “At a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel Catch-22 over its whole history. Heller responds, “Yes, but I have something he will never have … enough.”

                https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/economic-questions-the-thorstein-veblen-question.html

                Reply ↓
14. Acacia May 29, 2026 at 11:08 am

    Regarding the USian SPR, I looked at this a little bit yesterday…

    It was at ~374 mbbl as of May 15th, and during the previous two weeks there were 8.6 mbbl followed by 9.9 mbbl extracted. For the week of May 22nd, it fell by another 2.8 mbbl.

    For the big picture, here’s a long-term drawdown chart:

    https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2059300662286918058

    Per Jeff Currie et alia, the absolute minimum level for the SPR is around 150 mbbl, i.e., required for “pipe fill” etc. leaving around 221 mbbl actually available on May 22nd. Yet there is apparently a current policy in place that the total SPR should not drop below 243 mbbl, though Hegseth can change this.

    Assuming that the current rate of drawdown continues at a rate of 8.5 mbbl — this is assuming close to worst case per what we have seen this past month — that means 15 weeks (09/11) until the SPR hits 243 mbbl, and 26 weeks (11/27) until it hits 150 mbbl.

    I see no reason Hegseth would push back against Trump and refuse to change the current policy on 243 mbbl, and so this clown car could pretty much continue rolling until the Fall.

    Disclaimer: I claim no special expertise on this and these are just back-of-napkin calculations. Please feel free to offer corrected numbers.

    The cynical part of me tends to think that this schedule offers more than enough time for some sort of “graceful fade-out” and Trump climb-down on either Hormuz or the Uranium or both, and the media obediently will move on to something else while the actual supply disruption issues play out over a period of several years. In the same way that we were told “SARS-CoV-2 is over” we will be told that the Iran conflict has been resolved. Trump will claim victory and Axios will carry water and spread lies as needed.

    Accordingly, FWIW, UKOIL is down to 90 right now and oil prices have been on a clear downward trend for the past 10 days. Financial news media keeps peddling “U.S.-Iran Deal Optimism” hopium. It’s become tiresome. The US continues to attack Iran during “negotiations” but we are supposed to believe that a “deal” is near.

    Reply ↓
    1. Carolinian May 29, 2026 at 12:38 pm

       Gasoline is dropping here.

       And food inflation is not too noticeable compared to Covid time. However it sounds like Yves is predicting a slowly and then all at once scenario–perhaps just in time for the election.

       Reply ↓
       1. JonnyJames May 29, 2026 at 12:48 pm

          Gasoline price average in Cal. is still over 6 bucks/gal., and food inflation is still strong. The Campari tomatoes I usually buy went from 7.59/lb. to 9.79/lb. in just a few weeks time! WTF? Tomato prices are ridiculous, and that’s just one example. But since Cal has high average wealth and income, there appears to be more price-gouging here
          Gotta price gouge what the “market will bear”

          Reply ↓
          1. Randall Flagg May 29, 2026 at 1:09 pm

             Dynamic pricing??

             Reply ↓
          2. JP May 29, 2026 at 2:24 pm

             Over 6 bucks on the coast but cheaper in the hinterlands. I bought diesel this morning for $6.69 with a card. I have now filled all my containers. In the past I have been able to make the stock market decline by buying in. If my luck holds the straights will open and the price will drop.

             Reply ↓
          3. Don May 30, 2026 at 12:12 am

             Massive price increases for tomatoes specifically (49% sticks in my mind, but I definitely could be mistaken) are making headlines and prompting political debate in Mexico. I haven’t delved into this so don’t know if this is about fertilizer or energy prices…

             Reply ↓
       2. Oregon Lawhobbit May 29, 2026 at 1:11 pm

          The AAA fuel price page has it down about a dime from a week ago. But I would agree that the “all at once” is going to be the final result.

          Reply ↓
    2. Chris in OK May 29, 2026 at 3:14 pm

       Fuel is also dropping here. Diesel down to $4.89 from $5.29 recently. I filled all of my cans early (treated with BioBor for storage) but topped up the Jeep this afternoon in expectation of Sunday fireworks.

       As for your math, this is a global story, but just a US story. Other countries have smaller (or zero) SPRs and/or are having to draw them down more quickly due to less (or zero) domestic production. Other countries will be hitting the wall sooner and at that point the US can sell them more and drain our SPR faster or tell them to jump in a lake.

       There was a Macrovoices with Louis Gave a few weeks back where he said that in order to close the supply gap, prices will go up. The rich countries will pay and the poor countries will have to do without.
       https://youtu.be/5t9dGe5l9KA?si=JVFG7OtUVHaKNv0I

       Reply ↓
       1. Alan Sutton May 29, 2026 at 7:59 pm

          Here in NSW diesel went from $1.69 a litre to $3.30 within two weeks of the war starting.

          In the last two weeks it has dropped from about $2.80 to about $2.05 yesterday.

          Completely mystifying to me every time I go past a petrol station.

          Reply ↓
15. Yalt May 29, 2026 at 11:29 am

    I don’t know what to make of this so I’ll post it without comment; it’s about half an hour old.

    Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

    Reply ↓
    1. lyman alpha blob May 29, 2026 at 11:57 am

       Sounds like Trump negotiating with himself again. Probably frustrated after getting the runaround from the Strait of Hormuz helpline.

       Reply ↓
    2. Jason Boxman May 29, 2026 at 12:36 pm

       Confusing indeed

       Here are some of the details under discussion in the latest proposal, according to an Iranian official, U.S. officials and two diplomats involved in the latest talks, who all spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the draft.

       True or false? We don’t know. It’s the western press. At least the NY Times admits we have no idea

       Yet, lingering vagaries remain. Because the negotiations have taken place through the Pakistanis and Qataris, it has never been clear whether the Americans and the Iranians have been working on the same version of the memorandum, or who exactly has the authority on the Iranian side to signal an agreement.

       The two diplomats briefed on the latest terms said the preliminary agreement outlined an end to hostilities for an initial 60-day period, allowing for negotiations between the two sides, with the possibility for that to be extended.

       The version of the draft described by the Iranian official, however, says the terms included a “declaration of the end of war” on all fronts, including Lebanon, for the duration of the negotiations. Two Iranian officials said the terms in the memorandum of understanding pertain only to the period of negotiations for a broader, more permanent deal.

       and

       Perhaps the most surprising, and apparently recent, addition to the agreement is a reference to an investment fund for Iran. The Iranian official and one diplomat put it at $300 billion, but other officials involved in mediation would not confirm the amount.

       The Iranian official described it as a “reconstruction program” that would be promised to Iran in the event a final agreement was signed. Earlier in the negotiations, Tehran had demanded reparations for bombardment damage that some Iranian officials estimate at $300 billion to $1 trillion.

       Two diplomats briefed on the latest draft called it an international “investment fund,” which the United States would help facilitate in the event of a final deal. Plans for such a fund would be further discussed during the negotiations period, the diplomats said.

       meanwhile Trump just lifted the blockade anyway?

       Under the U.S. understanding of the memorandum, the strait would reopen immediately, an official said, but the U.S. blockade would remain, but reduced in stages depending how much prewar ship traffic is restored by Iran. The idea is to incentivize Iran to demine the strait quickly.

       https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/28/world/middleeast/iran-us-agreement-plan.html?smid=url-share

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       1. JonnyJames May 29, 2026 at 1:19 pm

          From AJ live feed:

          Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, says in negotiations with the United States, “we have no trust in guarantees or words – only actions are the measure”

          The Iranians grew tired of the irrational blah blah a long time ago. The emperor is mentally unstable, irrational, mercurial, and according to some, mentally unfit for the presidency. In the local vernacular: “dude aint right in the head”

          Reply ↓
          1. ISL May 30, 2026 at 10:57 am

             I, too, have grown tired and decline to spend time thinking about or listening to the gloriously oracular statements of the golden leader – I also do not listen to when my chickens tell me they desperately need scratch (all day! – thankfully they cannot tweet feed my social media – ok I do not have a social media presence and am happier for the lack).

             Reply ↓
       2. Yalt May 29, 2026 at 4:40 pm

          Two diplomats briefed on the latest draft called it an international “investment fund,” which the United States would help facilitate in the event of a final deal.

          I look forward to tonight’s AI-generated Tehran Trump hotel and golf resort.

          In all seriousness, turning Iran’s reparations claim into a slush investment fund is one way to keep Trump awake through the briefing.

          Reply ↓
    3. Randall Flagg May 29, 2026 at 1:30 pm

       I don’t think Trump realizes that Iran is creating a new “Rules Based Order” in the world and he can’t do a damn thing about it except make things worse

       Reply ↓
16. Ann May 29, 2026 at 11:42 am

    US accuses Swiss firms of helping Iran dodge oil sanctions

    https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/us-accuses-swiss-firms-of-helping-iran-dodge-oil-sanctions/91494020

    Report Finds ‘Remarkable Increase in Food Insecurity’ Across US Under Trump

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/hunger-rises-under-trump

    Keystone Kash Sends Agents to Election Officials’ Homes in Key Swing State

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/kash-patel-sends-agents-to-election-officials-homes-in-wisconsin/

    Netanyahu says military crossed Lebanon’s Litani River as Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates

    https://www.firstpost.com/world/netanyahu-says-military-crossed-lebanons-litani-river-as-israel-hezbollah-conflict-escalates-14016769.html/amp

    Trump lays out Iran deal demands, says he’s about to make ‘final determination’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/trump-iran-deal-hormuz-nuclear-war.html

    Global heating is making hajj ever more dangerous, report finds

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/may/29/global-heating-hajj-muslim-pilgrimage-saudi-arabia-dangerous

    Trump should come clean about his all-too-obvious decline

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/29/trump-mental-physical-health

    Devastating Poll Reveals Trump’s Nightmare Is Only Getting Worse

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/devastating-poll-reveals-trumps-nightmare-is-only-getting-worse/

    Trump Official Tells Millions Kicked Off Food Aid That They’re ‘Moving Into the American Dream’

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/brooke-rollins-snap-changes

    Reply ↓
17. Bill B May 29, 2026 at 11:59 am

    “…US oil isn’t very good for making diesel.”

    This is because US refineries aren’t good for processing the bulk of US oil into diesel:

    “Heavier crude is now an essential feedstock for many U.S. refineries. Substituting it for U.S. light sweet crude oil would make these facilities less efficient and competitive, leading to a decline in fuel production and higher costs for consumers.”

    https://www.afpm.org/newsroom/blog/whats-difference-between-heavy-and-light-crude-oils-and-why-do-american-refineries

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit May 29, 2026 at 12:23 pm

       Now, every scenario leads to “higher costs for consumers.”
       “Higher costs” coupled with falling employment and lower “average” wages adds up to trouble ahead.
       Go long Guillotines Manufacturing Company, Et. Cie.

       Reply ↓
       1. Oregon Lawhobbit May 29, 2026 at 2:55 pm

          Now, every scenario leads to “higher costs for consumers.”

          Well, not EVERY scenario. Any scenario – and there are a few – that ends inWWIII would definitely bring prices way down…. ;-)

          Reply ↓
          1. Lefty Godot May 29, 2026 at 4:45 pm

             That’s when you get into the “whenever I run out of bullets” limit on economic transactions.

             Reply ↓
             1. Oregon Lawhobbit May 29, 2026 at 5:20 pm

                “run out of bullets.”

                What an interesting concept! :-)

                Reply ↓
          2. ambrit May 29, 2026 at 8:53 pm

             Ah. The Elites demand destruction and get it.

             Reply ↓
    2. Mikel May 29, 2026 at 1:38 pm

       https://factually.co/fact-checks/business/us-refineries-heavy-sour-crude-which-can-process-and-supply-sources-6877a5/

       Reply ↓
    3. ACF May 29, 2026 at 9:33 pm

       Why is heavier feed stock what US refineries are set up for when we produce the light stuff?

       Was it a bet on Venezuela becoming a vassal?

       Reply ↓
       1. ISL May 30, 2026 at 11:06 am

          diesel isn’t the light stuff, which is why it has a much higher energy density, and without diesel, the economy doesn’t run.

          It takes a decade-ish of no to low yields to retune a refinery (while costs continue), so you are seeing legacy – the world was very different in terms of oil trade in the 60s and 70s. No one is going to change a refinery source feed unless forced by lack of availability (and then often cheaper to shut down and import – US refining capacity is shrinking) or massive (ain’t happening politically) gov’t subsidization.

          Reply ↓
18. redleg May 29, 2026 at 12:47 pm

    Nobody talks about the accrual purpose of the SPR: it is supposed to be used for strategic purposes, i.e. in case of a war, there’s oil to use that isn’t vulnerable to interdiction.
    Instead of this, ignorant politicians have used and are using it to suppress prices. This particularly idiotic administration is using it up to suppress prices while fighting wars!!!
    How these geniuses expect to mantain warfighting capability, which includes manufacturing munitions in addition to powering and lubricating ships and aircraft, without adequate oil is apparently something they haven’t thought about.

    Reply ↓
    1. John Wright May 29, 2026 at 2:14 pm

       Perhaps the USA war leaders are actually sleeper peace-niks listening to John Lennon’s “Give peace a chance”.

       But, petroleum products can be diverted from the USA civilian market for war efforts when necessary.

       There are other industrial shortages for strategists to worry about, gallium and antimony come to mind.

       But releasing from the SPR is similar to George W. Bush’s “go shopping” suggestion when USA troops were moving overseas.

       Which reminds me, has Bush Jr recently shared his wisdom about middle east /West Asia with the media?

       In my view, he has been quiet about the events in the area despite his vast “experience” in the area.

       Reply ↓
       1. redleg May 29, 2026 at 4:59 pm

          There is no way that the US population will willingly accept this under the current circumstances. For example, yesterday i had a meeting with emergency managers for a county and city in the MSP metro to discuss geological hazards. Their shop talk before the meeting was about planning for civil and political unrest that they consider highly likely in the next 2 years, if not this summer. If the pros are worried about this now, without a fuel shortage, there’s no chance that the general population of the USA (or the Feds for that matter) will simply roll over and take it. There will not be any buy-in from the public like there was (mostly, anyway) in WW2.

          Reply ↓
          1. Oregon Lawhobbit May 29, 2026 at 5:24 pm

             There will not be any buy-in from the public like there was (mostly, anyway) in WW2.

             Yeah, that would require a much higher level of social solidarity and commonality of purpose than you’re going to find here in the US to get any sort of public buy-in.

             Add to that the joys of social media….

             Reply ↓
    2. Chris in OK May 29, 2026 at 2:56 pm

       We can’t manufacture munitions without Chinese rare earths so withholding the SPR for fighting wars is moot.

       Reply ↓
       1. redleg May 29, 2026 at 5:12 pm

          That’s entirely not true and here’s why:
          1. That only applies to high tech weapons. This war won’t end when the wunderwaffen are expended.
          2. Explosives and propellants do not require REE. They do require oil and fertilizer.
          3. In the ongoing land wars, which the US is involved in on several fronts other than Iran, artillery is still causing the bulk of casualties. The Russian MOD recently released a report showing this (i can’t find the link- i read a translated summary a week of so ago and its gone). Artillery shells and tubes don’t require REE. They do require oil and metals (Al, Fe, Cr, Ni, Zn, Pb, etc).

          Reply ↓
19. Mikel May 29, 2026 at 1:09 pm

    Berman: “So all of the transport in the world, the shipping, the trains, the trucks, they all run on diesel. All of the mining, the extraction runs on diesel. All the oil drilling runs on diesel. Diesel is the hemoglobin of the global economy.
    And what I just got done telling you is that US oil isn’t very good for making diesel. So now if you want to make an argument and say the US is energy independent but it can’t make diesel which is the hemoglobin of the global economy then we can have a very interesting conversation because that ain’t going to work.”

    Isn’t that the reason for controlling the Venezuelan crude? This is the kind of crisis that would light the fire to spur the investments (and any other incentives requested by oil companies) to increase production there.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post authorMay 29, 2026 at 1:52 pm

       I normally appreciate your comments but I cannot have readers making demands of me.

       Please listen to the entire presentation as I suggested, or generate a machine transcript and read it. I don’t have the energy to spoon feed you. I am exhausted.

       Reply ↓
       1. John k May 29, 2026 at 2:03 pm

          That you provide your readers with news we can’t get elsewhere is fabulous for us, but it’s not worth your health. Please take a break at least until you are feeling better.

          Reply ↓
    2. John k May 29, 2026 at 1:58 pm

       Imo that’s the 2030 plan.
       Granted, rerouting their modest exports from China to us has happened.

       Reply ↓
       1. Socal Rhino May 29, 2026 at 3:58 pm

          Berman covers the relative utility of Venezuelan and Canadian crude. Also in the news as recently as today, Exxon Mobile execs have been looking at the state of play in Venezuela and finding it dismal. Lot of time and money needed.

          Maybe Trump will invade Italy if he hears about their olive oil.

          Reply ↓
    3. Bugs May 30, 2026 at 6:17 am

       Diesel is nearly the same thing as heating fuel oil. You can use either in a diesel engine but fuel oil will put out more sulfur emissions and doesn’t have detergent. Fuel oil is practically untaxed (at least in France), and it’s against the law here to use it in a vehicle. I’ve done the opposite when my boiler ran out on a weekend. The diesel seemed to burn more efficiently. Most of rural France has oil heating so if this hits later in the year, not only will the farmers be stuck on powering their machines, but they’re going to be burning wood for heat.

       Reply ↓
20. ChrisFromGA May 29, 2026 at 2:32 pm

    I’m wondering if Taco is hoping that some big news story breaks to distract everyone away from Iran. That way, he could quietly agree to Iran’s terms while everyone is focused elsewhere. Paging an earthquake, or maybe another sportsball scandal. This is my crazy theory to explain his dithering and lack of resolve.

    We’re basically going into the weekend the same as last Memorial Day weekend – with Trump having to decide whether to take a deal or restart the war. Groundhog day, again and again. With a side of fake news from Axios.

    Meanwhile, the Walrus is not happy:

    https://thehill.com/national-security/5901492-iran-negotiations-bolton-trump/

    Reply ↓
    1. Chris in OK May 29, 2026 at 2:52 pm

       I think the reason for his dithering is waiting for the Hajj to end. He can’t risk angering the GCC and losing access to their land and airspace. I expect the fireworks to start on Sunday. Agree that it would be out of character to start on Sunday vs Friday because markets but the Hajj schedule has pushed it.

       Trump has to be seen as winning and has to be able to brag about his accomplishments. Besides, even if he wants to Taco, Israel won’t let him.

       Reply ↓
       1. GF May 29, 2026 at 7:43 pm

          Trump would also like to finish off Iran before the World Cup play starts in about 2 weeks – which is about the length of time the US has before it runs out of bombs and such.

          Reply ↓
          1. The Rev Kev May 29, 2026 at 7:52 pm

             He had better hurry then. The World Cup starts in only 12 days. Popular sentiment was for this year’s cup to be held in Morocco but the US muscled FIFA into holding it in North America instead but through the insatiable greed of FIFA, hotel owners, venue owners, etc. atop high gas/jet fuel prices and an unfriendly local climate courtesy of the Trump regime, I think that it is going to be a bust.

             Reply ↓
21. Cat Fancier May 29, 2026 at 3:34 pm

    I was taking so much hope from raspberry jam’s posts above, because I have known for some time that, despite US media speaking of Israel and the Israeli public as a monolith who all agree with every policy of Ben-Gvir’s or Netanyahu’s, the hope for anything different from Israel would depend on a shift away from the far-Right policies of the Kahanists (Otzma Yehudit and I’ve forgotten Smotrich’s party’s name). And then I logged on and looked at X/Twitter and saw this. Tony Seruga as I remember is pretty much a right-wing source himself, but sometimes those on the right are more astute about these takeovers in the US than liberal Democrats or progressives are. https://x.com/TonySeruga/status/2060382988459012191?s=20

    Reply ↓
    1. raspberry jam May 29, 2026 at 4:12 pm

       I can’t speak to this particular bit of information. I can say that recent (last few months) conversations with Israelis about the eventual outcome had multiple tell me the “solution” was the US make Israel a state (like the Belarus/Russia Union State). I demurred and reminded them the US power structure only cared about a subset of Israel, specifically the intelligence and military arms. I also reminded them of the infamous Kissinger quote (“To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal”).

       I believe Smotrich’s party is called Religious Zionism.

       Reply ↓
    2. Samuel Conner May 29, 2026 at 5:08 pm

       I have no idea what the provisions are in the NDAA that are referenced in that tweet, but I think as a matter of law that future Congresses are not bound by laws enacted by prior Congresses. Any law can be repealed, at least in principle.

       Reply ↓
22. Craig Dempsey May 29, 2026 at 5:28 pm

    Meanwhile, out in the shadows, is a path, by a Jew and a Palestinian: The Future Is Peace (2026).

    Reply ↓
23. Jason Boxman May 29, 2026 at 7:26 pm

    Raise, or call?

    U.S. has not confirmed that Iran placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz, sources say (NBC News, paywalled)

    The U.S. military has not definitively identified any mines during repeated searches of the waterway, raising questions about how “robust” the threat may be, sources say.

    Reply ↓
24. amfortas May 29, 2026 at 8:43 pm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qmi9NgCsyA

    larry j, abt 25 or so min in says a buncha cagey shit that leans towards iran has a pakistani nuke….but he’s hearing it on backchannels, and cant frell with his source.
    then wilkerson goes on abt how relatively silent official us has been since then.

    who the hell knows?

    i been busy shooting a .410 into bushes where i could hear a rattlesnake, but not see her.
    expended 12 shells…my whole magazine depth, as it were(goin to feedstore manana)…until she finally stopped rattling.
    ill cut that brush and dig her out in the mornin to confirm.
    bury the head in fire pit and feed rest to chickens.

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit May 29, 2026 at 9:13 pm

       If you see the rattlesnake after he or she rattles, it is already too late.
       Stock up on shells you expect to use. They will be yet another ‘victim’ of the economic “downturn” looming on the horizon. Don’t forget the lever gun ammo as well.

       Reply ↓
    2. Glenda May 30, 2026 at 12:53 am

       I’ve heard that Rattle snake meat tastes like chicken.

       Reply ↓
       1. MH May 30, 2026 at 3:06 am

          I was told it was Mexican barbecued chicken before being informed that it was rattlesnake after I ate it. If I hadn’t been told I would’ve never suspected. Doesn’t just taste like chicken but smells like and has the same texture.

          Reply ↓
25. Ann May 29, 2026 at 10:26 pm

    Putin Claims Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion Nears End Without Providing Timeline

    https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/putin-claims-russias-full-scale-invasion-nears-end-without-providing-timeline-19325

    Fox host admits Trump naps in meetings – but begs viewers to ‘please stop’ highlighting it

    https://www.rawstory.com/trump-sleeping-2676971194/

    Judge Reopens Trump’s Lawsuit Demanding $10 Billion From IRS

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/us/politics/trump-irs-lawsuit-ruling.html

    U.S President FCC warns all broadcasters to follow orders or be punished like ABC | ABC says early renewal for all stations is unprecedented, has no legitimate purpose.

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/trump-fcc-warns-all-broadcasters-to-follow-orders-or-be-punished-like-abc/

    Russian official warns Europe to brace for more drone incidents after Romania episode

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-official-warns-europe-brace-more-drone-incidents-after-romania-episode-2026-05-29/

    Disney is calling Trump’s FCC “unconstitutional.” It paid him $15 million 2 years ago

    https://fortune.com/2026/05/29/disney-abc-fcc-trump-unconstitutional-license-fight/

    Japan Sends Officers to NATO’s Ukraine Mission for the First Time as Tokyo Deepens Defense Ties

    https://united24media.com/world/japan-sends-officers-to-natos-ukraine-mission-for-the-first-time-as-tokyo-deepens-defense-ties-19309

    We’re at War with Iran Because We Never Punished Bush for Iraq

    https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/were-at-war-with-iran-because-we-never-punished-bush-for-iraq

    Canada slips into technical recession as economy stalls in Q1: StatCan

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/canada-slips-into-technical-recession-as-economy-stalls-in-q1-statcan/

    Reply ↓
26. les online May 29, 2026 at 11:26 pm

    Someone online has pointed out that the captured US corporate propaganda media is most likely primed to start shrieking, the moment Trump claims ‘a deal’ with Iran has been reached, that “It’s A BAD Deal !”. Worse: “It’s A BAD BAD Deal !”… Even worser: “It’s A BAD,BAD, BAD Deal !”
    Giving Trump no option but to return to pummelling the sh*t out of Iran – until it agrees to the expected Deal…
    …….
    Should happen any moment now…

    Reply ↓
27. Joe Martin May 31, 2026 at 5:38 pm

    I’m impressed by Trump’s ability to bs the markets

    Reply ↓