[Today’s Iran war post is launching before complete because I had really hoped not to have to write one today. Please come back at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]
Today’s post will be telegraphic because the great unwashed public is reduced to drawing inferences from thin but very worrisome sightings. So a lot of what is presented below will be res ipsa loquitur, as in from tweets.
The overarching story is that the negotiations, which we said from the outset would fail, have failed. The US and Iran are at loggerheads on two major issues. One is the status of Iran’s enriched uranium, which the US wants in its possession while Iran has said it will not leave the country. Mind you, there are other outtrades on nuclear issues but this one is the high profile one now. Second is control of the Strait of Hormuz which Iran is refusing to cede.
The Iran side is saying further negotiations are pointless, given Trump’s timing demands:
“The differences between Iran and the United States are so deep and extensive that it cannot be said we must necessarily reach a result after a few rounds of visits or negotiations within a few weeks," Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Friday. https://t.co/DYRWXiR1Kk
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) May 22, 2026
The Iranians are even becoming borderline rude in making clear how frustrating it is to deal with US negotiation incompetence:
سخنگوی وزارت خارجه: درباره اورانیوم غنیشده مواضعمان را روشن بیان کردهایم
در این مرحله اگر بخواهیم در این مباحث گفتوگو کنیم قاعدتاً به نتیجه نمیرسیم
ما قبلا این مسیر را رفتیم و اختلافنظرها آنقدر زیاد بود که نتوانستیم به نتیجه برسیم و طرف مقابل با حمله به ایران جنایت کرد
— خبرگزاری تسنیم – خبر فوری (@Tasnimbrk) May 22, 2026
Translated from Persian
Foreign Ministry Spokesman: We have clearly expressed our positions regarding enriched uraniumAt this stage, if we want to engage in discussions on these matters, we will naturally not reach a conclusion
We have previously taken this path, and the disagreements were so extensive that we could not arrive at a result, and the opposing side committed a crime by attacking Iran
Iran has made clear it expects reparations from Gulf States + Jordan:
Note that even though the resumption-of-Iran-war drums are beating loudly, Mario Nawfal in conversation with former Lt. Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski in a video clip further down in this post, suggests that Trump might attack Cuba to achieve an easy win. But the problem with that at most buys time in the conflict with Iran when time is not on Trump’s side. And Nawfal was providing incoming information snippets during the discussion Moreover, Chas Freeman, who has participated in negotiations with Cuba, in a fresh talk with Nima, gives creedence to the Cuban government promise that if the US tries to invade, it will be a bloodbath.
The US Navy has also made a belated admission of what is widely recognized: it cannot being to do Tanker Wars 2.0 and escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz:
🚢🇺🇸🇮🇷 "If we try to provide escort servises to ship in the Strait of Hormuz, that's a very challenging mission in this narrow strait, when it's contested. It's not something that's easy to do.
It EXCEEDS the capacity of the Navy to do it effectively. We'll have to wait until… pic.twitter.com/MCU7ouJgTd
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) May 22, 2026
And Iran’s ambassador to France has said Iran wants to set up a permanent tolling system:
However, I have seen no evidence that Oman is taking this plan up. Oman, unlike Iran, is a signatory to UNCLOS, the law of the sea treaty that requires states to grant safe passage through what would otherwise be internal to provide states beyond the choke-point with naval transit. Consistent with Oman not being on board (yet? ever?), Iran’s maps showing its Strait of Hormuz zone of control routinely extend to the Oman and UAE coast, basically saying that formalities like territorial waterways count for little if you have a big enough stock of drones and fast boats.
Now to updates:
BREAKING: Trump has just cancelled his Trump National Golf Club trip this weekend and officially cancelled attending his son's wedding, citing "circumstances pertaining to Government" and an "important period of time," choosing to remain at the White House for the entire…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 22, 2026
Donald Trump said he won't be attending his son's wedding this weekend. You know the one named after him. My guess is if Miriam Adelson wanted him somewhere, he'd find a way to make it happen. But this might be because Miriam has already ordered him to focus on Iran this weekend.
— Cenk Uygur (@cenkuygur) May 22, 2026
Note that the Donald Jr. was married before and had five children with that wife. Missing a second marriage is a less big deal than skipping the first.
From NO1’s just-released daily wrap:
US preparing fresh Iran strikes over Memorial Day weekend. CBS reports the Trump administration was preparing Friday for a new round of military strikes, with no final decision reached. Trump and intelligence officials canceled weekend plans including Trump’s own son’s wedding. Qatari delegation instructed to leave Iran immediately. Iran shut down airspace. Massive GPS jamming detected across Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, and the Persian Gulf per DD Geopolitics. American fighter jets and refueling tankers spotted over Baghdad. Iran’s Hormuz Letter source claims IRGC’s “third struggle” plan will close Bab el-Mandeb and disable submarine internet cables in response to strikes assessed as “inevitable”.
And:
The removal of Tulsi Gabbard is a strong indication that the US is planning more, broader military action in the Persian Gulf
— Alon Mizrahi (@alon_mizrahi) May 22, 2026
Even Piers Morgan sees this coming:
All the signs are pointing to the U.S. and Israel launching another huge attack on Iran.
I urge President @realDonaldTrump not to do it. This war’s been damaging enough without yet more mayhem being unleashed.— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) May 23, 2026
And from Simpilcius in US Admits No Hormuz Plan B as Preparations for Next Wave Begin:
Now Trump is reportedly getting ready for resumption of attacks, though some reports continue to plausibly claim he’s still clinging on for hope that Iran will send him some favorable “deal” terms. Trump knows there is little he can accomplish with further strikes, but it would be the only face-saving action he could possibly take to chip away at the now-universal skepticism of his “triumphant” operation.
Note that the rest of his post focuses on Iran’s threatened retaliation and Gulf State vulnerability, such at the full text of this Hormuz Letter tweet:
BREAKING: A source close to Iran’s Ghalibaf says Iran’s “third struggle” plan announced by the IRGC will close Bab el-Mandeb Strait “by fire” and disable the seven submarine internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz, in immediate response to upcoming US strikes that Iran has assessed as “inevitable,” for this weekend.
The source adds that Iran will also respond with “next-generation missiles and drones” firing hundreds daily at the Gulf energy infrastructure, and that the US and Israel are playing “Russian roulette” with the outcome being the “collapse of the global economy and unprecedented gas prices.”
Below is the afore-mentioned talk between Karen Kwiatkowski and Mario Nawfal. Kwiatkowski makes a lot of sound, experience-based observations; it is a shame she is less in circulation than some other ex-military talking heads:
On the economic front, yet more evidence of major US consumer stress. Per the Financial Times, in Walmart warns of petrol rationing as Iran war hits customers’ wallets, Walmart reports that consumers are self-rationing gas:
Walmart said higher petrol prices were leading stressed consumers to ration purchases at the pump and warned of inflation in its store aisles as the retail behemoth confronts a rise in energy costs caused by the war in Iran.
Customers visiting Walmart’s US petrol stations are buying less than 10 gallons per visit for the first time since 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine had driven up oil prices. “That’s an indication of stress,” said John David Rainey, chief financial officer, on a call discussing quarterly results with analysts on Thursday.
The largest US retailer’s vast trucking fleet was not left unscathed, as higher fuel costs shaved 2.5 percentage points off the company’s operating profit growth in the three months to the end of April. The resulting rise of 5 per cent left operating income at $7.5bn, falling short of analyst estimates.
With thousands of stores and hundreds of millions of customers, Walmart offers a window into the health of the US consumer at a time when elevated petrol prices and resurgent inflation are bringing strain. Walmart again benefited in the quarter from shoppers seeking out its low prices, with comparable sales at its US division rising 4.1 per cent, beating estimates.
“When I look at the consumer, especially here in the US, they’re telling us they’re feeling some pressure and they’re looking to Walmart for value,” John Furner, chief executive, told analysts.
And this chart should focus the mind:
🚨 UMich Consumer Sentiment revises to 44.8 from 48.2, a new all-time low. pic.twitter.com/7q8DrIka58
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) May 22, 2026
Done for today! Let us hope that all this noise is a false positive or yet another Trump market manipulation scheme, and you don’t hear from me about Iran again until Tuesday.
____
1 See:
Trump definitely has a thing going on called Iran-
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uXL5Esm8-cs
Nice, first Legos, now the Muppets.
I want to hear what the two old guys, Statler and Waldorf have to say from their Balcony box seats.
If Saudi Arabia – especially during the Haj which is about to commence – and other GCC members refuse to cooperate militarily, a US military response in the near term may be severely handicapped.
Attacking Iran again during the Haj would not be a popular thing in this region. It would have a worse look than attacking during Ramadan.
The US can fly in through Iraq but having a narrow flight path = more exposure to Iran attack.
And what about the Yom Kippur War?
Iran would be wise, in that case, to move air defense systems (passive, loitering) into Iraq. Refueling aircraft are particularly juicy targets. I am sure the Iraqis would cheer every downing.
If the US decides to fly routes through Saudi or Kuwait, what can those countries realistically do to prevent them? I’m not clear on whether this issue is just a matter of diplomatic niceties or if there is an actual military necessity for vassal regime cooperation on aerial attacks.
That’s basically my thought. They have played that two-faced game before. I would think that if the Gulf dictatorships were serious, they would cancel all SOFA, DCA or other agreements with the US and kick out all US military and “intelligence” personnel from their territory. Otherwise, this is probably just more blah blah. The Iranians must just laugh when they hear this BS, maybe a new Lego video will take the piss
They could say that they want to negotiate with Iran directly without US coordination, they could request Russia/China help in various things or state that they want stronger alliances with them, they can publicly state that they whole-heartedly agree with Iran’s toll as a means of their share of reparations, etc.
None of these are well thought out since I am just answering off the cuff and have zero background in diplomacy, but it is a mistake to assume that smaller countries in critical locations have no leverage. In this particular case, they have a tremendous amount of leverage if they want to use it, and doubly so if they choose to act in a coordinated manner.
cut off electric power and water to the US base.
The bases have their own generators, but cutting off the water would work. None of the bases are on the coast, so they don’t have desalinization plants,
Could they fly in enough diesel? Cut off truck diesel deliveries.
IDK but suspect there’s something to this only more like in a protection racket. I’ve mentioned before that even under Biden, certain US maneuvers billed as against Iran made more sense as veiled threats against Saudi Arabia. Plus they were always suspiciously timed around Saudi talks with US adversaries.
Assuming it’s true, the detail that the recent Pakistani deployment is strictly using only Chinese kit would fit with that. There’s so much fog & playing both sides that it’s hard to be sure of anything though.
well,
the last time there was a round of actual “kinetic deployments”, the kuwaiti’s shot down what? 3 “f” something fighter jets? like they say,,, with friends like those….
My guess is that trump will screw things up no matter what he does. Judging from past performance.
I bet that the NC commentariat are assiduously keeping their fuel tanks topped up in preparation for supply problems, which will be under 10 gallons per top up (exception being Wuk’s ancient truck with ‘normous tank because 8 mpg).
I’m driving electric 99% of the time, home charging at just over .10$kw
An intelligent USG preparation for this war would have included flooding US market with inexpensive, high quality Chinese* EVs, starting years ago, so that US could better weather at least the gasoline shortage.
* It goes without saying that solving this problem quickly through domestic production is no longer within national competencies.
The above thought is offered mostly as snark, but it’s a fact of arithmetic and history that what USG spent in the Iraq and Afghanistan forever wars would pay for a $10,000-class EV far every family in US, … multiple times over.
We are ruled by sociopaths.
That would probably mean having the Chinese build recharging stations built to their specs across the country. Your idea is a good one but since it is an idea that would benefit the little guy, it would find no political support from either political party.
When I resettle near tiny city, I’ll probably pick up a Chinese electric trike off of Temu. They have plenty of range and enough cargo-capacity for most of my trips– the prices are right, research and reviews look favorable.
I’d love to do hybrid or a fast-charging electric car/small truck, but that doesn’t look like that’ll be possible or practical any time soon.
Consider repairability. Most of the reviews are probably written by people who just took their first ride and think the bike is great.
I volunteer at a bike co-op and people bring these in. They’re all different, no standardized parts. We generally can’t do anything, even flat tires are often super hard to repair. If the customers give us a hard time I say go call the guy in China you bought it from and complain to him.
Shops for major manufacturers such as Trek mostly won’t mess with Temu bikes. In theory you should have tinkerers opening little shops to fix the off-brands, but it doesn’t seem to have happened so far.
It’s $3000, but I’d prefer one of these. https://powersports.honda.com/motorcycle/scooter/metropolitan/2026/metropolitan
A full 1.2 gal tank goes a long way.
Thanks for the report– repairability is certainly a valid consideration, and I was mostly looking at price-point.
A eBike shop in a college town could do very well by sourcing from a handful of top Chinese manufacturers, offering rentals, repairs, and service in addition to sales of these.
Trek is an excellent bike, but OMG that’s a serious investment…
If I was sticking with a gas-powered bike, Kawasaki’s KLRs are what I’d go with as I just can’t see what advantages scooters have to offer (plus, I’m not a small person… 6’3″ 250#).
Yes, Trek’s prices are insane, especially considering all their stuff comes from China. I’m not recommending them, but understand they have shops in towns all over the country to service what they sell and not what they don’t sell.
Probably paid for by the company
Also ; the batteries. A lot of those cheap e-whatever’s don’t have the safest battery standards, lithium ion batteries are hazardous materials, you can’t ship them under regular protocols. Keep in mind you’re going to be repeatedly charging this for YEARS in your HOUSE, it only has to fail once for you to lose everything.
A lot of electric generation in US is from natural gas, US response to shutting Hormuz is to increase LNG exports to cover some of the net lose. US electricity will cost more.
The other response is to limit crude oil imports the past few weeks.
Reduction of US crude stock week ending 15 May 17.9 million barrels. Tank bottoms just after Independence Day!
Then we will watch rapid draw on gasoline and diesel stocks.
Iran has US over a leaking barrel.
‘The other response is to limit crude oil imports the past few weeks.’
Pretty sure that I read that the US is exporting a lot of oil lately which must have an effect at the gas pump.
Yes US crude exports are raised since start of the Ramadan decapitation attempt.
Cumulative average for 2026 is about 4 million barrels per day, last week export around 5 million.
Import trend since Feb around 6 million. Weekly petrol balance sheet.
Yes US exports crude, while importing grades that I think yield more diesel. US is normally net import about 2 million barrels per day, lately net imports of crude down.
Exporting LNG is very big for US since U.S. makes up for EU not importing pipeline gas from Russia.
The item to track is draw on both SPR and commercial crude oil stores,
My wife is a bit of a prepper, and I have standing orders to keep vehicles above 3/4ths tank. Can’t remember when I last bought > 10 gal.
I just bought $20, when I normally fill up. Not because broke, but because the cash discount at that station was 15 cents a gallon, and I’ll be in higher-cost territory next week. Because I don’t want to go in the store twice, I just paid for an amount I knew it would hold with slack to spare. Times change, habits change.
Actually it’s a bet that each day I don’t fill my tank the price per gallon is going to be higher the next time I do.
Israeli faction trying to push Trump or just fog/distraction?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/23/world/middleeast/israel-trump-iran.html
Quote:
Reestablishing discipline with threatening spectacular display is more on-brand and on-strat for typical militant national elites. And if it’s aposematic for me to notice that, then so be it.
Aposematic, I’m going to steal that one.
Surely the Israelis have other ways of keeping tabs.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/12/israel-white-house-spying-devices-1491351
Old school People magazine caught in the act of journalism:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/celebrity/donald-trump-jr-and-bettina-anderson-quietly-married-in-florida-before-weekend-wedding-ceremony/ar-AA23Q2Er/
“But a Florida marriage license obtained by PEOPLE reveals the couple already quietly got married in West Palm Beach on Thursday, May 21.”
Could mean that no wedding was missed by his father.
Aha! Good catch!
At 9:00 AM Pacific Time MSN’s website says this story is no longer available.
Curious
https://people.com/donald-trump-jr-bettina-anderson-already-quietly-married-11982660/
“Donald Trump Jr. and Bettina Anderson are expected to hold their wedding ceremony in the Bahamas this weekend, but a Florida marriage license obtained by PEOPLE reveals the couple already quietly made it official on Thursday, May 21.
The document, which they applied for on May 14, is affixed with signatures from Don Jr., 48, and Bettina, 39, and indicates the couple was married at Bettina’s twin sister Kristina Anderson McPherson’s home in West Palm Beach, Fla.
Bettina’s brother-in-law, real estate attorney Bradley McPherson, officiated the wedding, the license shows.
PEOPLE has reached out to reps for Don Jr. and Bettina for more details on the quiet ceremony and its participants. “
I am told it is common to get legally married before the wedding ceremony.
And Trump may not like the new wife much.
What Being a Patriot Looks Like Now (Apparently)-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhvtnaXd3Zk
Re the Walmart thing–I often gas up at the Walmart stations and, being a reader of NC, I’ve lately been topping off my tank when convenient on the belief that the price may shoot up at any time. It’s more a “beat the system” mentality than a poverty mentality.
That said, Walmart probably knows their customers better than I do (they are famous for it) and therefore many are indeed buying less gas due to shortage of funds. Also people may still be in a state of disbelief and hope that prices will go down.
We are all commodity speculators now??
FWIW, I try to gas up at Walmart because I get the plus discount. Prior to the war, I stopped going because the place was usually absolute chaos (too few pumps, too many impatient customers). Lately, I’ve been filling up there again as the volume of traffic is way down. Just one persons observation at one station but I found it notable even before today’s mention.
Supporting anecdotal from the Piedmont:
I often fill/top at the Neighborhood WM. Gas was $4.03 last Monday. Surprised to see it at $3.95 just yesterday. An anomaly as far as I observed in my drive about. Both days packed.
Looking for a spare oil change supply, another local WM was stripped bare last Monday but fully replenished yesterday-w both conventional and synthetic/blends. I stocked up. No filters though.
5qts Conventional 5w-30@16.95$+1qt@4.95$
But a pint of Slick50@17.95$
Wow, 3.95 is dirt cheap, even 4.50 would be cheap. We are getting gouged for well over 6 bucks for cheap-grade gasoline, diesel is around 7.50.https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=CA
I hear you. We can all “top up” or fill up as often as we can, but there will be no avoiding high prices in future. Even if we have a large storage tank for gasoline/petrol, it does not have a long storage life (a few months). I understand you can add “fuel stabilizer” to extend the storage life to a couple of years, but that stuff is expensive, so no cost savings there.
Diesel, will store for a bit longer, but still has a limited shelf life.
Chas Freeman suggested that Trump should favor a War Powers vote. Would allow him to blame Congress and claim he would have won if they hadn’t betrayed them. The stabbed in the back bit.
Second the comment on Kwiatkowski, glad to see her somewhere other than Judging Freedom.
Something about putting old wine into new bottles…
Under a large supply shock, standard “It’s not my fault” and “If only” rhetoric is not going to cut it.
Freeman (like many others) is applying a hopelessly outdated model to the world right now; the fact that so many people are still applying this reflexively is a very good indicator that the world hasn’t quite internalized how brutal things are about become.
“The US Navy has also made a belated admission of what is widely recognized: it cannot being to do Tanker Wars 2.0 and escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz”
As anyone paying attention to Operation Prosperity Guardian and Operation Rough Rider ought to have realized — because Iran is Ansarallah (aka “the Houthis”) on steroids …🤨
Let us hope that all this noise is a false positive or yet another Trump market manipulation scheme, and you don’t hear from me about Iran again until Tuesday.
When this goes kinetic, there’s no point of even a remark until some of the dust clears: all regular readers here have a pretty good idea what to expect and “Links” should be sufficient to fill the gap for a couple of days.
Step back. Take aim. Hit hard. Can’t wait to see what you’ve laid on the mat come Tuesday.
The trouble with Trump though is that he is more a ‘ready, fire, aim’ sort of guy. Then afterwards he will say that it was the greatest thing ever done in history and people were amazed to see it and had never se it done before.
“Ready, Fire, Aim” implies the concept of readiness and a pretense that aiming will be performed at some point in the future. The US government and our executive are just button mashing “Fire!” There is no readiness. There is no aiming.
They’ll stop button mashing when they run out of ammo and can’t reload.
“Aim” is a euphemism for drawing a target around the bullet hole.
The trouble with Trump though is that he is more a ‘ready, fire, aim’ sort of guy.
Without the “aim” part…. ;-)
Or the ‘ready’ part
UAE joins Saudi Arabia, Qatar in urging Trump not to restart Iran war
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/uae-joins-saudi-arabia-qatar-in-urging-trump-not-to-restart-iran-war
Australia joins the UK, Italy, France, Germany, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands and New Zealand in calling for an end to Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/23/albanese-joins-coalition-of-nations-calling-for-an-end-to-israeli-settlement-expansion-in-the-west-bank-ntwnfb
Israeli bombardment reduces buildings to craters in southern Lebanon
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/23/israel-lebanon-strikes-deaths-paramedics-health-ministry-says
Chas Freeman has said it is not credible that the UAE is opposed, so it looks like someone is running a big spin operation.
The UAE likely suspects it’s gonna get slammed hard in the next round if it publicly says anything even remotely resembling instigation or approval.
What it’s saying in private is, of course, a whole different matter….
It will get slammed hard regardless.
‘Australia joins the UK, Italy, France, Germany, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands and New Zealand in calling for an end to Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank’
But we will continue to sell them all the military equipment that they want to buy.
I believe this is referred to as ‘hypocrisy’.
Exactly, their cynical deception and hypocrisy meter broke, and it even went to “11”.
And of course, they support the genocide in Lebanon, Palestine etc., support the war crimes on Iran, sanction Iran etc. and have no problem with Israel being part of the silly, cringe-worthy Eurovision song contest. Herr Merz says Israel doing our “dirty work” for us. European values and all that…
When it comes time to write the history of this war, the chapter describing this period will be titled ‘All Quiet on the Western Asian Front.’
Sitzkreig redux.
If the weather app on my Mack Book is accurate, the temperature as of 17:00 today 5/23 in Riyadh is 102°F, Dubai 90°, Kuwait City 93°. The next days including all of next week, Riyadh will be >100° every day, all day, with a high of 112°, Dubai and Kuwait City will hover at 100+every day. Tehran runs about 10° cooler. If they’re deploying troops on the ground, I don’t envy anyone.
I had some former colleagues who used to live in Dubai: I hear the humidity on the Gulf can be very high as well, bringing the heat index even higher. It sounds unbearable
On a warm day in summer, say 45℃ , (113°F), humidity will be ~100%. It can be a trifle uncomfortable. If you are out in it for long your water consumption shoots up madly.
45C and 100% humidity sounds like heat stroke and possible death. I would not survive for more than 10 minutes in that.
I live in Phoenix so I usually think heat concerns are overstated, but water consumption doesn’t help all that much at 113°F and near 100% humidity. Sweat doesn’t cool when it doesn’t evaporate. If you don’t have AC you just gotta sit quietly in the shade and hope for the best.
We used to joke that the Saudi Meteo Office never said the temperature was 50℃ or more as Saudi Labour law stipulated that all outside workers had to be pulled.
I’ve been to Dubai at this time of year. If the other side of the straight is similar, it’s not humanly possible to be in body armor and carrying 50lb around for more than an hour without something very bad happening to your body, no matter what shape you’re in. Even in the lighter clothing that the indentured South Asian workers wear, they go into the shade and pause frequently. I spent about half a day down in the port area just taking it in and it’s edifying at least to see what these folks go thorough to keep it running. If you do visit, I recommend going down there, if they still let people in.
IF I am reading some maps correctly, the temperatures on the Iranian coas, say in Bander Abbas will be the same. Further inland the land is much higher and it looks like temperature moderate.
At the moment “2026-05-23 15:42:36 EDT” Damman Saudi Arabia & Bander Abbas Iran are reporting (via Google) 30℃ & 27℃ respectively. Reading are from about 10:10 PM in Dammam
Shiraz, Iran at a much higher altitude is reporting 21℃.
After Saudi Arabia’s population exploded, it depleted its aquifers. Due to very little rain and high temperatures, the aquifers will never refill, so they are dependent on the desalination plants which makes them vulnerable. 20% and growing of its oil revenues go to desalination. Its population is concentrated in two narrow strips, and its citizens are dependent on welfare and cush government jobs. The immigrants do the real work.
Pretty interesting report from Electronic Intifada on the war in Lebanon, which I hope isn’t considered off topic from the Iran war proper. This week, Hezbollah has included a lot of after action footage. They seem to have gotten the rhythm down: send one drone in to surveil the site and attack a target, then send a second one some minutes later, which surveys the damage of the first, and then proceeds to another target, repeat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YwCJGO3rIE
Yes, but at least Judge Napolitano regularly has her on his show, usually weekly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nT3BOQyAwZ8
LOL! Strange how it is always ex-colonels who get these gigs and not the ex-generals, who seem to prefer think-tanks and defense advisory groups.
There must be some set of hidden reasons behind this pattern…./s
I think that the independent-minded officers retire at or before LtCol and Col rank.
A retired officer called it a 30-year single-elimination suck-up tournament.
Getting to flag rank (one or more stars) is a political exercise. Congress has to approve all promotions to and within flag officer ranks, so it makes sense to a degree as that’s how the system works. IMO the system sucks. Not all flag officers are barely competent political hacks, but many are.
The field grade officers (O4 through O6, major through colonel or lt. commander through captain in the Navy) in my experience can be separated into careerists and leaders. Careerists want promotions and will do whatever it takes to get one. Leaders will do what’s right for the mission or their people (or both). Some officers can navigate both tracks. The ones who “don’t play the game” and downplay the ass-kissing that’s necessary for promotion don’t get promoted unless (or sometime even if) they are exceptional leaders.
Wilkerson, Macgregor, Kwaitkowski, Davis all come off to me as leaders, Ritter as a high-end technical expert with unwavering ethical standards. IMO none of them would ever make flag, but I’ll bet that the soldiers, airmen, sailors, and marines whom they led think the world of them. These are the people, the majors, colonels, captains, who are willing to lead and take on difficult tasks.
“These are the people, the majors, colonels, captains, who are willing to lead and take on difficult tasks.”
These are also the military personnel most often associated with successful military coups. Think Nasser and his cohort in Egypt.
Also of note is that these groups often claim that their actions are “in the Nation’s best interests.”
Poli sci ppl distinguish between “colonels'” and “generals'” coups. The former is a coup against the army command as much as the rest of government. The latter is the coup by the entire army (or army plus navy plus air force or whatever.) As you note, most historically interesting coups belong to colonels (even if not literal colonels) although they can go very badly too–see the Greek or Syrian colonels (before Assad the elder).
If an officer reaches the rank of Captain he has to decide whether that’s as far as he goes, or struggles to make Major. That’s the critical decision point. You’re not allowed to stay on active duty for 20 years. If you make Major you can stay for at least 30 years, bringing your pension to 75% of your “base pay.” Thanks to President Gerald Ford, if you stay on active duty beyond 30 years you get an additional 2.5% per year until you reach 100%. Most generals go for 100%, which reaches a quarter million dollars a year. Up until 1945, the saying was, “You’ll never get rich as a soldier.” That’s no longer true, although I guess if you’re getting a quarter million a year you feel like you’re finally middle class.
I met Lt Col (O-5) Kwiatkowski well before she got to the pentagon, she was a young to my status, captain (O-3). I did not work directly with her. The Judge does good to have her on!
She seemed bright, and articulate.
That said a dedication to honor and truth are not assets to achieve promotion to O-6 and about.
Think tanks and revolving door MIC jobs are marketing.
Yep! She is great.
The latest from Barak Ravid:
Exclusive: Trump says he’s “50/50” on Iran deal or bombs, will meet envoys to decide
From Intelsky
https://x.com/Intel_Sky/status/2058242769630400839
Assuming that take is correct, what’s the point of this next stage of the charade? It can’t possibly be fooling the Iranians and I don’t understand what’s gained by giving the can another kick.
Trump wants out.
Unconfirmed reported M.O.U. provisions :
hoytmonger: ‘It just dawned on me that this report may be a pretext for Israel to launch an attack on Iran…”
We’ll see fairly soon, imagine.
Two additional reported provisions I inadvertently left out;
Al-Jazeera has had the best feed of live updates today. It just posted the following, suggesting we are now waiting for the US response.
Iran, Pakistan send revised war-ending proposal to US
Iran and Pakistan have submitted a revised proposal to the United States to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a news report says.
A response to the proposal from Washington is expected by Sunday, two unnamed Pakistani sources told Reuters.
Let’s update this McCain era classic
Bomb bomb bomb
Bomb bomb Iran
Bomb bomb bomb
Bomb bomb Iran
Watching the trends, no dividends
Trading oil futures to satisfy our friends let’s
Bomb Iran
Because we can
They’ll be rocking and a rollin’
Blasting through the ceiling
Bomb Iran
Straight to Hormuz, now we gotta choose
Call Netanyahu to tell me what to do let’s
Bomb Iran
Because we can
They’ll be rocking and a rollin’
Blasting through the ceiling
Bomb Iran
It seems that the Israelis are in a ‘panic’ about an actual deal between Trump and Iran ( I say ‘Trump” because he took ownership of the war)…
I can’t see Witkoff betraying Israeli interests, so this may just be propaganda…
https://www.southfront.press/israel-in-panic-over-very-bad-deal-with-iran/
It just dawned on me that this report may be a pretext for Israel to launch an attack on Iran…
Which would draw the US into it…
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” DJT
One hopes (against all reason) Trump just leaves Israel to their own devices should that happen…
How could we forget our dear Sen. McCain, whadda guy eh.
And we thought the idea was something new, the song goes back to 1980 apparently.
I think this is the original version. The lyrics were just copied and pasted to 2026 US war policy. It’s freaky
(“put the Ayatollah in a box, gonna turn em into a parking lot, gonna nuke em etc.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcoFQ5rDWUg&list=RDVcoFQ5rDWUg&start_radio=1
World has 6 months to avert major food crisis, says UN as Hormuz struggle drags on
https://www.politico.eu/article/un-6-month-window-to-avert-food-price-crisis-from-hormuz-closure/
Agreement on Iran war ‘largely negotiated,’ Trump says amid fragile ceasefire
The president posted on Truth Social that “final aspects and details” of a deal that would open the Strait of Hormuz would be announced shortly.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/us-iran-officials-signal-progress-negotiations-fragile-ceasefire-war-rcna346636
It seemed too much to hope that US leadership might not be as stupid and beholden to Israeli interests as has been suggested. It would be great if during Memorial Day weekend my government could decide not to support this insane war any more.
I fear that what others on here have already suggested will still come to pass. The US agreeing to end hostilities with Iran will result in Israel doing something drastic. Perhaps the pro-Israel neocons have had enough of losing? Perhaps Miriam and the other mega donors are more interested in their money than further bloodshed? I can only hope.
It seemed too much to hope that US leadership might not be as stupid and beholden to Israeli interests as has been suggested.
——————————————————————————————————————————-
Trita Parsi:
Look, if the talks, you know, the 60-day, 30-day doesn’t go anywhere, as you said, you know, the Israelis may not need to do much for it to be sabotaged. So, you know, this whole thing, the memorandum falls apart. Doesn’t mean necessarily that we’ll go back to a blockade of the blockade or that they will go back to warfare because that’s very costly, of course.
But it will nevertheless be a more preferable situation from the Israeli standpoint if there never is that real agreement because I suspect that there will not be any real sanctions relief until there is a final agreement. There may be some sanctions relief you know opening of the… unfreezing of assets and things of that nature but, the real sanctions relief I doubt will going to come very early– it will come once there is an actual agreement.
So from the Israeli standpoint that gives them all the incentives to try to prevent the agreement to actually be found.
Will they be able to convince him? Keep in mind the Israelis are going to be in their own election season and they will have to focus on other things. it will be very difficult to see the Israelis taking a very strong public position against the deal. In fact, what you’re looking at right now is a lot of folks that are more or less acting in inadvertently, deliberately, whatever as proxies of Netanyahu in Washington DC. They are very vocal.
I’ve not seen any reaction from the Israeli government so far because it’s very tough for the Israeli government to go up directly against Trump, particularly in this election season that they’re now faced with.
But they will do everything they can. They’re not going to um uh roll over and play dead in any way, shape, or form. They have a track record with the JCPOA that even when the deal was struck, even when it was reached, even when it was implemented, they never gave up. They did everything they could to destroy it. And eventually they were successful because they managed to convince Trump to do so. And I wouldn’t be surprised that there will be a similar thing.
But if Trump, and I’ve heard this from folk in the administration, if there is a deal, if Trump is happy with it, and if Trump chooses to look at it as his real point of legacy, not these nameless seven to eight peace deals that he made, no one remembers it…he can’t even pronounce the names of the countries that he supposedly did peace with… but actually something that he really treats as his legacy. That will create another protection ring of protection around it in which it will be more difficult, more costly for elements to go after it because they’re essentially targeting his legacy.
Don’t know if that’s where things are going to go, but I’ve heard that, from administration officials saying that if this actually ends up a deal that he really thinks is going to be his legacy, then he will do everything he can to protect it.
But all of that nevertheless depends on whether they manage to go beyond this agreement. And this memorandum has been extremely difficult to negotiate undoubtedly. But now they’re going to go into a much more difficult phase which is to actually translate that into an actual agreement.
That Politico article links to a good podcast from the UN on it: https://youtu.be/tUYsXroGIns
They are basically saying this is a guaranteed supply choke and that if higher income countries who have the capacity to reduce demand do not reduce their demand, then lower income countries will absorb it due to affordability. It’s not a good outlook considering rich countries are already dealing with food affordability concerns…
Iran Moved Billions Through Binance to Fund Regime—Continuing Into This Month
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-binance-crypto-military-e755b218
Trump Says He “Gets a Kick” Out of Criticisms He Receives for US Military Deaths
https://truthout.org/articles/trump-says-he-gets-a-kick-out-of-criticisms-he-receives-for-us-military-deaths/
‘Canada is handing people over to ICE’: refugees rejected at border face US detention
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/23/canadians-refugees-rejected-face-ice-detention
Trita “Mr. Negotiation” Parsi analyzes purported Iran deal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auvOADLjg50
He emphasizes Israeli potential to undermine it.
Sounds of gunfire heard near White House
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/23/politics/white-house-area-gunshots
Anyone else picking up on how Trump’s unstable personality and pain body attracts other lunatics?
At the rate we’re going, every crackpot out there will be drawn to him like a moth to the flames.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTFVMMCwsss&list=RDsTFVMMCwsss
More on the agreement here:
Iran war live: Trump says Iran ‘agreement has been largely negotiated’
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/23/iran-war-live-tehran-says-diplomacy-continues-but-no-deal-yet-with-us
And here:
BREAKING: Trump Announces New Iran Deal With Major Concessions – w/ Shipping Expert Sal Mercogliano
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0_ibXh3Nko
Major concessions?
It’s a Trump announcement so could be his usual bs. We have to wait and see what the Iranians say was actually negotiated.
It’s a Trump announcement so could be his usual bs.
————————————————————————
Triti Parsi made some astute observations on that point:
I’m having a little trouble taking this seriously:
Iran Agreed to Give Up Enriched Uranium in Deal Announced by Trump, U.S. Officials Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/23/world/middleeast/iran-deal-uranium-nuclear.html
No archived version yet so I haven’t read the full article but I’m going to guess the “deal announced by Trump” and the version the Iranians agreed to will turn out to be as far apart as ever.
OK, getting past the headline…
…
…
I’ll believe there’s some sort of deal when the US actually implements some provision of it.
‘Iran will only get access to the bulk of those assets that the United States and allies would put into the reconstruction fund’
Located where exactly? In a New York bank at Trump’s discretion? In one of the Gulf countries where some of it already is? And who does the construction work exactly that this money will be used for? Will Trump demand that it not include any Chinese construction companies? Yet more lies and boobie traps.
Hmm. Isn’t Witkoff is supposedly the one pushing hardest in favor of a deal?
Maybe they could bring Jared aboard as well. Why not? They are after all two real estate hustlers. Not much chance of a Trump hotel in Tehran though.
But it is the New York Times saying this.The New York Times, man. But yeah, why would Iran agree to give up its enriched uranium when the Ayatollah came out this week and said that it is not going anywhere. And would they give it up on the basis of a Trump promise? Maybe Iran would agree to ship it to Russia but only if all the money seized from Iran was returned first. Sort of like no tickee, no shirtee.
No doubt over the next couple of days the Iranians will reveal what they actually proposed, and the White House will say “We didn’t agree to that MOU; the President threw that version in the trash.” Axios will run an article on supposed divisions in the Iranian leadership that explain the two different memoranda. And Trump will pull another all-nighter with Natalie Harp, rage-posting about how this time he’s really going to obliterate Iran even though they’re already obliterated etc. etc.
Bit of a monotonous timeline, isn’t it? Even the business with bringing all the VIPs to the White House and having a shooting incident seems like a re-run.
Trump never fails to disappoint and it all gets so monotonous as you point out. Maybe the whole deal is to wear the Iranians down with all these shenanigans and mini-dramas.
I’m thinking they want the new Fed headmaster to do an interest rate cut. This “deal” gives the juice.
Let’s see how long the “negotiations” last.
An Anchorage agreement for Iran. Did Russia get the diplomatic premises back or airline flights restarted ? Iran will get nothing either. A comedown for Israel though, it now ranks near Ukraine.
And now…a blast from the past:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/06/are-us-talks-with-moscow-and-tehran-just-propaganda-in-the-destabilization-campaigns.html/
If Trump doesn’t end this War soon and steps aren’t seen to be taken to restore supply chains there won’t be many Republicans winning in the mid terms.
There’s a lot of pressure from both sides and the Zionists see this as an existential War with no chance of survival if US Support diminishes substantially.
More Drama and more Crazy is on the way and no one is going to be happy whichever way Trump Jumps.
The best off ramp?
Trump dies of a stroke, soon, and Vance is smart enough to take the deal Iran offers while blaming Trump’s mental incapacity for the disaster.
Thiel is more interested in expanding Palantir’s reach and establishing a techno utopia here in the USA, an updated version of South Africa in its Golden Past.
Some fellow Oligarchs share that ideal and they have a LOT of Money to spread around…
Israel is not their priority.
I’d hoped that my to the right of right brother in laws would show a little contrition in regards to the never ending saga, but it was a false hope and they’ve gone even deeper into the dank, ye gads.
Among the utter nonsense that emanated out of their mouths, one made a point of saying that Iranians weren’t allowed to have dogs, which frankly I’d never given 1 iota of thought in passing, and curious-I looked it up and 1 out of 10 Persians have dogs as pets, and as luck would have it, that’s the same amount of canines owned in our family group, 1 out of 10. Cats are a much higher percentage among us at 6 cats out of 10.
Maybe you should introduce your right of right brother in laws to a new technological innovation – search engines. Come to think of it, that having no dogs was a conservative trope I heard years ago. Guess that it is still around. Anyway, enjoy your holidays. Lucky bugger.
They tried to gang up on me, in particular after I mentioned I’d never heard of Charlie Kirk before the Zionists did him in (pure speculation on my part) and they were a bit incredulous and kept telling me I had ‘to get out of my bubble!’
Vacay is going great, what an arty city Prague is, and all because the English and the French knuckled under to Adolf in Munich, leaving everything built over the last thousand years or so largely intact.
Considering the fact that you are in Prague, just make sure that you are not near any windows when debating your brother in laws. :)
Was at the Prague Castle yesterday and saw the windows where the first defenestration took place circa 1618, effectively kicking off the Thirty Years War
https://substack.com/@hfir/note/c-264200384
The two sides are confused about what the other is agreeing to? These are verbal commitments?
And what do we have here?
https://houseofsaud.com/houthi-three-oceans-ceasefire-gap/
Did the Houthis Really Strike Three Oceans at Once?
“…Two strikes are confirmed; one remains disputed. CENTCOM verified two anti-ship ballistic missiles fired into the Red Sea on May 24, consistent with attacks on the Yannis and the MSC Alexandra. The Essex claim in the Mediterranean is contested by Zodiac Maritime, which manages the vessel and found no evidence of a hit. Whether or not the Mediterranean missile landed, the three-zone claim was transmitted simultaneously — and the insurance markets do not wait for CENTCOM confirmation…”