[This Iran war post yet again launched before complete. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or reload this page then for the final version]
We’ll presumably know by the end of the upcoming weekend whether Operation Freedom was merely yet another Trump stunt to keep Mr. Market on side and buy more time for a resumption of hostilities, or whether the US really believed a lame show of force would lead Iran to stand down. If the latter, the momentary inaction may mask big internal fights over what to do next. Recall that in simple terms, we have the armed services and other realists pitted against politically powerful and seriously deluded Zionists and hawks.
Recall also that the clock is moving very much against Trump. As Professor Marandi pointed out early on, May is when temperatures start rising to intolerable levels in the Gulf. Those who remember the Iraq War will recall that the massive buildup was seen as proof of a ground operation in March, that if the US did not go live then, it would have to wait until October for another hospitable period, and it would be too costly to keep forces idle in the theater for that long.
The economic clock is also not on Trump’s side, but most the ultimate effects of current actions are going to happen months and even years after the incremental impact of the additional duration of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Honestly, most of the investor class needs to be guillotined for its role in playing along with Trump’s antics for its own profit. We said early on that Mr. Market was the one force that could bring Trump quickly to heel. We now have mainstream financial outlets (as we will soon show below) describing how paper oil and stock prices are massively disconnected from fundamentals. Investors are actively enabling and increasing the severity of the coming depression
Nevertheless, as we will also describe, real economy distress is set to become acute by the end of May. The US is less insulated than it seems, since the rest of the world will buy up products where it can, including from the US, to alleviate shortages. That will lower supplies and increase prices in the US. And there are some key categories going into scarcity, like lubricants1 , where the US is no better situated than other counties.
First to an update on the latest Trump retreat. From the horse’s mouth:2
Operation Freedumb became an embarrassing failure on its second day. From Lloyd’s List in Shipping unconvinced by US ‘Project Freedom’ as Hormuz remains closed. The part outside the paywall is more than sufficient:
- Commercial traffic remains at a standstill, with no traceable transits on Tuesday and owners still unsure whether the US would intervene if Iran targeted ships
- US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s claims of ‘hundreds’ of ships preparing to move and a protective military ‘dome’, is now in place
- Operators with vessels trapped inside the Middle East Gulf insist nothing has changed, describing a disconnect between US statements and the on‑the‑ground security reality
So yes, sports fans, Trump for the moment is not engaging in an active operation but is still extending the considerable economic damage of Strait of Hormuz de facto closure by keeping the US blockade on Daniel Davies gave a fine overview on Twitter:
More alarming news from the White House: after not even 48 hours, President Trump has ended the so-called “project freedom” claiming success, where it is embarrassingly obvious there is none.
So far as we are aware, two individual ships left through the SOH and that’s it. Two other ships attempted and were fired on by Iran and prevented from leaving, and last I saw, no other ships exited the SOH today.
By keeping the blockade in place, he guarantees there will be no negotiations w the other side. Pretending that there are negotiations happening with Iran, is starkly refuted by Iranian statements.
This is just more evidence of an administration foundering, desperate for any kind of a solution, but with no northstar as to what they’re even looking for.
We remain in a very dangerous situation, as every day that passes with the strait closed, the economic damage to our country piles on.
But having said that, there is evidence of Trump trying to lay the groundwork for an actual retreat. This video contains extended comments from Marco Rubio starting at 4:20 that look like an Epic Climbdown:
Rubio: What was Iran’s plan? You have tounderstand what their plan was. Their plan was they were going to build this conventional shield where they would have so many thousands of missiles and drones and rockets that they couldn’t be attacked. And behind that conventional shield that they were trying to build, they would then break out and do whatever they wanted with their nuclear program. They no longer have that conventional shield. Okay, we told you guys from the very beginning and and and and we’re very consistent in this messaging. The operation that has concluded was going to destroy their navy. They have no navy left. They don’t not a navy. They have small boats and Boston whalers, but they don’t have a navy left. They don’t have an air force. I challenge you. When is the last time you read or heard about an Iranian jet flying anywhere? They don’t have an air force. Their missile launching capability has been substantially degraded and their industrial base, their defense industrial base has been severely severely damaged. So their ability to build a shield behind which they could hide their nuclear program was wiped out. That’s a very substantial achievement and that was the purpose of this operation from day one.
Reporter: [Muffled] Their nuclear material in order for this war to end.
Rubio: Well, that’s one of the topics that needs to be discussed. I don’t knowabout I think you’re linking it. The the the operation is over. Uh Epic Fury is, the president notified Congress. We’re done with that stage of it.
Okay, we’re now on to this Project of Freedom. As far as a negotiation is concerned, I think the president’s been clear that part of the negotiation process has to be not just the enrichment, but what happens to this material that’s buried deep somewhere that they have still have access to if they ever wanted to dig it out. That has to be addressed and that’s being addressed in the negotiation. I’m not going to go further on what progress has been made on that topic because I don’t want to endanger the negotiations.
While this would seem to be a big step in the right direction, if you listen to the rest of Rubio’s remarks, he bangs on about economic damage to Iran. At 7:12:
Rubio: …they are facing real catastrophic destruction to their economy, generational destruction to their economy, generational destruction to the wealth of their country, imposed on themselves by the by the actions that they’re taking.
So Iran imposed economic sanctions on itself? Seriously?
Recall that Trump has contradicted Rubio before. But Trump may confirm Rubio in deciding to stick with economic sanctions only, based on the bogus assumption that they will inflict unbearable pain on Iran when Iran has already shown it can take tons of pain and continuing the present course indefinitely will inflict severe and even irreversible damage on the US and the rest of the world long before Iran would submit.
Team Trump is building on happy messaging, as attested by the Bloomberg landing page:
From the lead story, which has an anonymous single source effectively confirming an Axios account:
Iran is evaluating a new proposal from the US to end their near 10-week war, according to a person familiar with the matter, as China added its voice to global diplomatic pressure to wrap up the conflict.
Washington’s one-page memorandum of understanding will, if Iran accepts it, lead to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports, according to the person, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information. Nothing has yet been agreed upon, the person said, and detailed negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program will come later in the process.
And from Axios in Exclusive: U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say:
The White House believes it’s getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.
The big picture: The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.
- Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached, leaving the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.
I do not see how Iran can accept a one-page napkin doodle from the US. This is unserious unless the US actually does set a timetable for releasing frozen asset. But this is politically untenable from the US end. So this looks like a big market (and China) appeasing headfake.
This also may mean the pause in US weapons deliveries was show for China, to show the US was a tad more serious about peace than it had been before.
And cynics will note that 48 hours allows for the US to still go live with kinetic action over the weekend.
This Aljazeera story went live after I first launched the post. It points out that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is now in China. No doubt Team Trump hopes China will muscle Araghchi in person.
A sanity check of sorts. The US needs to make a big climbdown. It is not clear whether this very thin document goes far enough or to use a Wall Street term I alway hated but is apt here, is doable:
As we recently reported, Iran submitted amendments to a 14-point proposal to agree to a framework to end the war. The U.S. has since responded and Iran is in the process of responding to that. Here is how this round of diplomacy began to move: pic.twitter.com/ULXCVSCFdN
— jeremy scahill (@jeremyscahill) May 6, 2026
Not surprisingly, official and officially-connected Iranian accounts have yet to opine, but this seems reasonable:
As what I understand, while the ball largely lies in Iranian court when it comes to US – Iran negotiations, i would not be surprised if there is an incoming Iranian proposal to Washington via Islamabad, soon.
— Anas Mallick (@AnasMallick) May 6, 2026
Keep in mind Israel is predictably demanding more escalation:
⚡️ Israeli Kan Channel: The Israeli message to Trump: Negotiations with Iran are a waste of time, and the current escalation should be exploited to return to fighting. The Israeli army informed the political leadership that without removing enriched uranium, the campaign’s…
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) May 5, 2026
But it may actually be the case that Trump is at least on his back foot about more escalation. Larry Johnson reports that the mass movement of military men and materiel to the Middle East suddenly stopped. From his latest post:
I honestly do not know what Trump is going to do. I can only tell you what I am being told. A friend of mine who happens to live in the UAE, reached out to me late last night with info he had received from an Emirati official who is plugged into the UAE defense establishment. That official told my friend that the US would attack Iran on 7 May… That is Thursday…
Following Trump’s Truth post, the US Air Force just went strangely quiet over Europe and West Asia. In the last 24 hours, American military aircraft airborne across the region have collapsed — from over 27 yesterday to just 7 right now. All logistics and tankers: C-17 Globemasters, a C-5M Super Galaxy, and KC-135 Stratotankers shuttling between Ramstein, Spangdahlem, Tel Aviv, Abu Dhabi, and Al Udeid. No combat birds. No surge.
I learned from another source — unverified — a possible explanation for Trump’s apparent reversal may have something to do with his upcoming trip to China… Beijing put an implicit ultimatum around the upcoming Trump / Xi trip, threatening to cancel or downgrade the visit if there is any further escalation by the US against Iran.
About the same time that Trump announced he was putting Operation Project Freedom on pause, the IRGC strongly denied that they had fired any missiles or drones at UAE.
It is remotely possible that more evidence of US vulnerability played into the buildup pause:
We now know that at least two Air Force tankers suddenly broadcast an emergency signal over the Gulf this morning.
Shortly after an Airforce Search and Rescue team was deployed and *ALL* 30 other tankers were grounded.
It seems *very* likely that Iran shot down two US tankers. https://t.co/ibmP98EaSz
— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) May 5, 2026
On the IRCG’s late denial of any role in the UAE attacks, playing along with Trump climbdown messaging (and related actions) is consistent with “tit for tat,” in that players reward cooperation. Mind you, this does damage Iran’s credibility, since just about no one buys this story. For instance:
The Iranian military has now officially denied it launched missile and drone attacks against the UAE yesterday and today, and warns that any action taken by the UAE against Iranian territory will result in a “crushing” response by Iran. pic.twitter.com/a5h8iH6Og2
— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) May 5, 2026
To be clear: I don’t buy this, everybody on the Iranian side seems to be denying it but also winking that it’s awesome. But if I was trying to further drive a wedge between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and ratchet up pressure on the GCC’s ineffectual nature, this is what I would do.
— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) May 5, 2026
Similarly, a serious as opposed to showy (merely big-fire producing) attack on the Fujairah port seems a bit much for a false flag. The US should not want to reduce oil flows or scare Mr. Market.
On the economic front, the number and intensity of alarms on the financial and mainstream media are rising fast.
When an ex-IDF member, lobbyist and known Zionist is having to convey unpleasant truths about the oil market, to investors, you know the situation is serious. And look at the baby talk Hochstein has to use to talk to the reporters.
This segment describes that an average price of gas in the US of $5.00 is coming sooner than many think:
See the undue reporter surprise at idea that a lot of flights from the US to Europe in July and August will likely be cancelled:
This Aljazeera segment is unlikely to get the attention it warrants in the US, but it makes an essential point a7 17:55: “The US economy relies on air travel to function.”
While on the topic of jet fuel shortages:
Global airlines are cancelling flights at an unprecedented pace:
Airlines have cut 2 million seats and 12,000 flights worldwide from their May schedules over the last 2 weeks, reducing the total available seats to 130 million.
This comes as jet fuel costs have DOUBLED since the… pic.twitter.com/r5N8ErWs5Z
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 5, 2026
Notice the contrast with the tweet we featured yesterday on the countries most exposed to jet fuel shortages. Does that say the profile will change markedly by the end of May?
Top 20 countries at the heart of a jet fuel crisis pic.twitter.com/lJDGyJLTW8
— Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) April 26, 2026
We have been carrying on for some time about the even bigger looming crisis, that of food shortages and famines. Take the time to listen to the entire segment and circulate it widely:3
Turning to other noteworthy items:
This Janta Ka segment is particularly good. At the top, it shows official US messaging about the Project Freedom climbdown and the Rubio claim that Epic Fury is all over too. It then continues with IRCG presentations on the ineffectiveness of US naval action. The reporter does not call out that the first part, with an exchange between an IRCG operator and a US destroyer, was broadcast earlier, IIRC about a month ago. However, I find the next part intriguing, in that (as much as I do hate AI), it shows how AI is democratizing propaganda. The Iran mock-up of US vessels encountering Iranian threats is very well done and likely persuasive to a lay audience.
Next, the Janta Ka speaker takes apart the latest disgraceful UK messaging about arson at a synagogue. It turns out it was an ex synagogue recently bought by Muslims!
It ends with a new Lego music video, not by Explosive Media but of a similarly high standard.
Let us note Iran is moving forward with regularizing its control over the Strait of Hormuz (the fact of a logo strikes me as cute):
⚡️BREAKING
Iran has launched the Persian Gulf Strait Authority
Ships must contact this authority, fill out the necessary forms, and pay the toll
They will then receive an email and permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz – Tasnim pic.twitter.com/rUPcmief0w
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) May 5, 2026
BREAKING: French vessel attacked and damaged in the Strait of Hormuz.
And a last item:
Evacuations underway.
— Douglas Macgregor (@DougAMacgregor) May 6, 2026
Done for today! See you tomorrow.
____
1 The big cause is serious damage to the Jubail petrochemical facility in Saudi Arabia.
2 More like “horse’s ass”.
3 I quibble about some small points. Adams understates the loss of global natural gas due not just to the Strait of Hormuz stalemate but more important to the damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, which he does allude to. It’s ~30%, worse than the loss of oil supply. He also attribute the Covid inflation to “money printing” which is a red flag to anyone MMT literate. The Covid inflation was first and foremost due to a supply shock, and then due to net fiscal spending not directed to increasing productive capacity and well in excess of what was needed to mobilize slack resources.
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Operation Freedom = Sinko de Mayo, on TACO Tuesday… no less!
Taco is simply manipulating the news cycle. What’s amazing is that the idiots trading stonks and paper futures fall for the lies. Maybe someday a psychologist will publish a paper on it.
Not idiots, but traders making a guaranteed fast profit. I (and you?) would do it too if we had a pro trading setup.
So, who was buying stock futures 5 minutes before the fake Axios story was leaked?
We ought to have a proper investigation. The Democrats could step up here … oh wait, nevermind.
I’m pretty sure it was Nancy Pelosi.
WEF is now fully merged with WWF.
Turns out, the TV Reality of Reality TV IS the Jackpot.
Thank you, jsn.
A bit of humor is welcome in these times!
However, perhaps you mean WWE? It’s been 24 years since the World Wrestling Federation changed their name to WWE.
“Following a trademark dispute with the World Wildlife Fund, the W[orld] W[restling] F[ederation] was renamed World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) in 2002.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WWE
I completely missed that!
My experience with WWF was back in 1998 when the wife of one of my clients was Executive Assistant to one of the execs at the WWF, which of course was entertainment if your entertained by that sort of thing!
Whoever it was, they were pretty sure no one would ever look into it and find out.
I think he was given “the Talk” by the serious people. Zionists may have influence inside the White House but the people who control the money have the power. Their interests sometime overlap and there’s no problem with doing genocide but once the the whole edifice on which that power rests gets threatened, Trumpstein will be given the message: Back the F Off, or get kennendyied. For anyone needing a quick primer on the reality of the American system, this quote from Killing them Softly, (2012) captures it most succintly:
Jackie Cogan: My friend, Jefferson’s an American saint because he wrote the words, “All men are created equal.” Words he clearly didn’t believe, since he allowed his own children to live in slavery. He was a rich wine snob who was sick of paying taxes to the Brits. So yeah, he wrote some lovely words and aroused the rabble, and they went out and died for those words, while he sat back and drank his wine and f***** his slave girl. This guy wants to tell me we’re living in a community. Don’t make me laugh. I’m living in America, and in America, you’re on your own. America’s not a country. It’s just a business. Now f***ing pay me.
Um, did you miss how many Zionists are billionaires? While not all Jewish billionaires are Zionists, from what I have seen in the press, the overwhelming majority are Israel backers. They are of the generation that was strongly pro-Israel
163 are Jewish:
https://forbes.co.il/e/rankings/2025-jewish-billionaires/
Out of 902 total:
https://fortune.com/2025/12/08/how-many-billionaires-does-america-world-have-ubs/
That is before getting to non-Zionists that see this war as profitable, such as those with defense industry, intel/surveillance industry, and US energy industry holdings.
All true. Many are old enough to care more about dreams of a legacy than a future. And always worth remembering that Jews, as in Judeo-Christian, are the white people of heathen Muslim Middle East. White men should just naturally be in charge and nothing is worth anything if they’re not.
“International law does not apply to Jews. That’s the difference between the Chosen People and the others.”
– Bezalel Smotrich, Israeli Defense Minister
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/entrepreneurdm_israeli-finance-minister-smotrich-says-international-activity-7381171371244044288-aWzB
That was a great ending! Also noteworthy that the Cogan character was a hitman.
It also brings to mind Bill Hicks’ routine from the early 90s where he speculates what happens right after a president gets elected. The elite donors take the new POTUS into a dark room, show him a brief film of the Kennedy assassination taken from an angle that’s never been seen publicly before, and then ask “Any questions?”
Which way are the bets going on polymarket and like betting sites? Someones have been making a bundle (billion dollar bets always on the winning side) at every step of “the straight is opening’, ‘the war is suspended/over’, type claims. ( Almost like insiders know ahead of time what T is going to say or twt and how that will move the market. And how did Barron recently amass a multi-million dollar fortune in his own name?)
Cattle futures?
Can you imagine how prices would go if Trump decides to attack Iran – just before the markets open up? Brent oil may be way down but none of those shortages have gone away. And none of the problems backed into the pie of the world economy have been solved either. I never thought that the market could be this deluded nor for so long but then again they have more money than me.
Maybe it’s a casino, not a market. / ;)
Everyone is in the market to make money so as long as players are given a reason for optimism and believe everyone else is going along, the market isn’t going to tank.
As a professional speculator, these are glorious times in the markets
I hate the way the world is going but am trained to profit from it
I may be a fool but I’m able to trade with greater fools. Just have to time the liquidation right so someone else is holding the bag.
FYI I loaded up on puts today… just for the record
Hahahahahahahahahahahah… I like it because it fits perfectly with all this stupid, though tragic, stupidity. Europedo Stocks climbing today by more than 2% on dreams that there is a memo of understanding ready to be signed soon. All this courtesy of Zionist Axios citing unnamed US officials. And i have a bridge… The question here is that why are markets so willing to run with this shit?– As I see it this could be nothing but blaming game all over again: It is Iran, Iran, the guys going baaad for nearly sinkuenta años and now unwilling to reach an agreement with oh so rational guys that we are.
“Europedo”… Can I use that?
Now I’m pissed I didn’t think of it myself.
Does this mean that the world no longer needs Hegseth’s Red, White & Blue Dome over the Strait of Hormuz anymore? I swear to god that I am not making that up-
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ifZD2ZjMep8 (1:26 mins)
Oh. gawd, I did miss the opportunity to call out that embarrassment.
But we appreciate that you left at least SOME stuff for the rest of us! ;-)
Along with all the appreciation for the stuff you put up there so the rest of us can just one-stop-shop for all our media minimum daily requirements!
Bloody hell! Unbelievable. This must have been one of the highest points of this tragicomic US Administration. Take me to the moon!
I thought he was talking about birth control!
How do they believe their own bullshit? I mean, when taking a good long look into their own eyes in the mirror what do they think of themselves?
Baffling beyond words.
So if Trump tacos out on all this will he say it is for humanitarian reasons because he cares so much about the rest of the world?
when taking a good long look into their own eyes in the mirror what do they think of themselves?
“I’m Rich!”
Just don’t ask them how they sleep at night-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GO0JaecRWy0
Disturbed sleep would imply a conscience, which the overwhelming majority of these types don’t have.
I’m sufficiently cynical about the peoples that I default to an underlying premise encapsulated by the title of Kurosawa’s noir film “The Bad Sleep Well.”
“Hey, handsome…”
The possibilities are endless!
Alcohol is a hell of a drug.
The world is my oyster……..
Ha ha ha ha ha……..
Tattooed SecWar winding me up
The bungled call
The bungled call
Who-ha who-ha who-ha who-ha
In Hormuz did convoy come
A Red, White & Blue Dome erect
Moving on keep moving on-yeah
Moving at once to scour
Using my power
I give it 24 hours
I have it so I’m mocking it
You really can’t afford it-yeah
Really can’t afford it
Shooting stars never stop
Even when they reach the top
Shooting stars never stop
Even when they reach the top
There goes a supernova
What a pushover-yeah
There goes a supernova
What a pushover
We’re a long way from home
Welcome to the Red, White & Blue Dome
On our way home
Going home where sore losers roam
Long way from home
Welcome to the Red, White & Blue Dome
Moving on
Keep moving on
Welcome to the Pleasuredome by Frankie Goes to Hollywood
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j29hcwG9jUE&list=RDj29hcwG9jUE
Sounds like some of the game changer advertising from Kiev.
Red White and Blue Dome is problematic. Very expensive in a profit generation mode.
A likely effect is friendly fire intercepts.
First problem is surveillance. The Aegis radars are not good on sea skimming tracks. That would demand a look down airborne radar like E-3. To be in range/line of sight it would be easy target for mid range SAM.
Maybe two KC 135 were examples…..
The winner here is the MIC
FWIW, the price of oil has just collapsed by over 10% in the past few hours.
Light Crude Futures (CL1!) https://www.tradingview.com/x/W2tSS0u4/
Brent (UKOIL) https://www.tradingview.com/x/dncofXT8/
Largest daily drop since the end of March.
Trading volume low, i.e., little resistance to this move.
Moi, I would be long doomium, but it is what it is.
Paper oil. Real economy oil is unchanged
Yves, not to be obtuse, but… what is “real economy” oil? Which ticker, specifically?
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#prices
Atm, they are mostly all dropping, though Brent has just rebounded from 98 to 102 (dip buyers jumped in?).
This has been a recurring topic of discussion here in the NC forum, and as far as I can tell Mr. Market is still quite disconnected from reality and mainly just following whatever the current talking points are on Truth Social. E.g., WSJ reports “Oil Accelerates Drop on Optimism Over Mideast Diplomacy“, and they are quoting Axios (!) and DJT that “Project Freedom” is showing “great progress.”
This is “diplomacy”? Lol
So, on the one hand “financial time moves faster than political time ” but OTOH, “the market is a lagging indicator”….?
If you or I created a fake press release, saying that some material event was happening, and it moved a stock, we would go to jail.
When Taco does it, nobody bats an eye.
BTW, crude futures have recovered nearly all of the pre-market loss. Somebody should put yellow crime scene tape around the NYSE.
If I understand correctly, Brent Futures (commonly referred to as Brent) are post-dated contracts that are normally settled in cash, not physical delivery. Dated Brent is Brent sold as physical delivery contracts. Prices for Brent Futures and Dated Brent are normally fairly close, within a few dollars, but have widely diverged since the conflict has started, with Dated Brent trading in the $120-$150 range vs. $90-$110 for Brent Futures.
Thank you! I had read that but did not recall it well enough to recount it properly.
WTI is physical settlement (with a cash settlement option) so you don’t see divergences like that.
Okay, but I am talking about actual market prices.
I am not sure about WTI, but it has been widely reported that Brent volumes are way down. I should have highlighted those discussions in recent articles on paper versus real crude.
A market with thin trading volumes stops acting like a real market. And they are very easily manipulated. See penny stocks, where insiders do pump and dump operations
I noticed some odd behavior in the US paper stock market this morning, as well. Wide bid/asks spreads on Chevron at market open – like close to $1.00!
That should never happen … it suggests that nobody trusts anyone, and that liquidity is thin.
Brent spot price volume is down right now, but I do not see any significant change over the past month. The pattern of surges in volume has not appreciably changed, e.g.:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5ZlFZAZK/
If you look at the VMA line in blue, below, note that it is near the highest point for the past month.
Also, @vioslav above mentioned a range for dated Brent — 120-150 — but I would submit that we need links to actual charts, for that is not the range of UKOILSPOT vs. UKOIL per above.
Further, “Dated Brent” on NYMEX is associated with a number of futures, so, again, an actual ticker would be helpful.
I am finding it difficult to not conclude that markets have been played, yet again, by DJT on Truth Social, and “enablers” like Axios.
I have noticed pump prices have gone up about $0.40/g in the past 4 days.
The AAA price comparison website is always worth a visit.
Or at least it seems to me. FWIW.
https://gasprices.aaa.com/
Real economy oil is spot price.
Can anyone shed any light on what Trump might think had already been agreed to? This went up about ten minutes ago…
It’s Axios, so we know it’s a lie designed to manipulate markets.
You may not have seen the current version of the post which includes the US having made a one-page proposal to Iran. I was remiss in not running down and including an image of the tweet.
Sorry, Yves. Silly me for thinking there’s a distinction between making a proposal and having it agreed to; I must have forgotten who we were talking about.
I have wondered whether sometimes DJT’s language about “nearing agreement” may reflect internal discussions in USG (along the lines of Yves’ observations that the West tends to negotiate with itself rather than with the actual adversary) about “how much can we surrender and still claim a ‘win’? “
I also wonder if it reflects T’s subordinates’ unwillingness to confront him with unwelcome information. Multiple copies of possible MOUs are floating around; Trump only sees the one most favorable to the US and is told that agreement is nigh.
There is a qualitative leap though from “nearing agreement” to “has been agreed.” The NYP has done Trump the favor of inserting an “if” in there, but it wasn’t in the original.
I am pretty sure this is all about market manipulation (and it works!). As long as markets remain giddy, I cannot see Trump capitulating to the degree he would need to get some sort of agreement from Iran.
FWIW:
US and Iran nearing one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war – Axios
https://x.com/criptopaul/status/2051969104827888002
Is there any correlation between the imminence of a deal and the resumption of kinetic action? Is anyone keeping track of that?
Now it looks like it was officially denied by Iran:
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/news/breaking#13665185
I saw Trump being interviewed and he was whinging that he has these massive talks & agreements with the Iranians in private but afterwards Iran says that they have no idea what he is talking about in public. Maybe he is getting embarrassed about how many times that he says that some leader said something when it never actually happened and they call him out on it. Does Trump ever get embarrassed though?
I’m not surprised that men should do evil, but rather they should have no shame. Jonathan Swift
It could be he really believes he’s had these conversations. It’s possible that his brain is that far gone. Of course, with the rumblings of how the people around him have created a bubble around him, would it be out of the realm of possibility for Trump to have participated in fake phone calls? (Don’t ask me to accomplish what? I’ve given up trying to apply logic to anyone in this administration.)
The person at Axios who keeps reporting this is an Israeli with close ties to Kushner and Witkoff, according to this from X.com:
https://x.com/KC_Invests/status/2051963431486411198
The NY Times or some remaining paper with a shred of integrity left should at least keep a scorecard and do an expose. It sucks that only random folks on the Interwebs are reporting the truth.
Some useful background on Ravid and other relevant information:
https://www.mintpressnews.com/revealed-israel-unit-8200-spies-american-media/288457/
The whole thing is being walked back now, including by Trump himself:
Source – ZH
I apologize in advance for using ZH as a source, but this is moving fast, and it is starting to look like this guy Ravid has been outed.
My read is that both sides have a proposal that is the unconditional surrender of the other side. And Trump claims they are close to agreement.
I think, if he could, Trump would unconditionally surrender (TACO Tuesday on SINKO De MAYO (h/t Wukuchumi – luv it)), but… Epstein and Netanyahoo.
I expect Trump will announce peace, and then Israel will (using US refuelers) hit Iran, and the US will just “have to” attack. Once markets close. Can’t waste a (manufactured) crisis (h/t Naomi Klein) to grift the suckers (h/t PT Barnum.
Reading that last paragraph, which is a fairly accurate description of the last few months, sounds like a rift in the space-time continuum occurred and Logic was replaced by the Absurd (Salvador Dali comes to mind).
I think the tweet speaks for itself. He’s trying to pass off a US proposal as “what has been agreed to” for the good vibes, but he can’t focus his brain for one sentence of time so he also characterizes it as waiting for Iranian agreement which reveals his dishonest premise. Lmao.
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Yesterday, for the first time, I paid over $4 for gas. A station closer to me had jumped their price 30 cents overnight and was even more expensive.
It looks like it’s all happening–just as NC predicted.
> It looks like it’s all happening–just as NC predicted.
Yes. Why then is NC not the hottest indi news property on the net? I would hazard it’s because limiting analytic and predictive statements to those that can be backed up by reliably sourced facts is less fun than … you know … the other thing.
I, for one, prefer to separate the pursuit of fun from the pursuit of news info and their respective methods. That certain NC links and comments are easily identifiable as jokes or antidotes that step out of the NC crit-think method only helps to reinforce the method.
You give me the perfect segue to re-poast this for-comic-relief that Yves included in one of her reports earlier in the war. If anything it’s getting more relevant as time goes by. Coffee warning.
https://x.com/fan_fintwit/status/2038359107107967232
“Why then is NC not the hottest indi news property on the net?” – Reading is required LOL
Most people just want to be spoon fed 30 sec videos devoid of information but high on confirmation bias.
…and they need to have flashy graphics with clickbait every other line so they can feel clever ignoring them.
We are not hot. Trump called the US the hottest country in the world. We are NOT that.
We are like the tortoise in the tale of the tortoise and the hare. We chug along at a determined pace and to the surprise of most, wind up in the lead.
That’s what I said, isn’t it? “less fun than … you know … the other thing”
Anecdata:
Chevron station owned by a large local fuel and lubricant dealer at a major intersection on I-75 last week had 93-grade gasoline (w/10% ethanol) at $5.199 per gallon.
Their other large station that I pass by frequently in “the interior” had the same gas/ethanol mix at $4.799.
Sharp business practice!
Such “Yankee Trading” seems to increase with proximity to major transportation conduits. I remember on long trips turning off the Interstate for fuel and moving into the hearts of small towns and cities searching for the usually cheaper ‘local’ gas stations. Counterintuitively, I found that the ‘local’ stations set in upper middle class regions were the cheapest. The worst prices were usually in the poorest parts of town.
Stay safe. Happy motoring!
Unfortunately stores and stations in poorer areas have to deal with increased costs due to crime – shoplifting, drive-aways without paying, and even armed holdups. Whilst it’s a small proportion of the population it’s a big problem. Many stores in poorer areas can’t absorb these costs and close down. I have worked in retail and know this for a fact!
ambrit, May 6@9:11am
It’s the same with food. Several years ago, someone did a visit in Vancouver, BC to number of major supermarkets, and logged prices for the same items. The wealthier suburbs were less expensive than the downtown markets in poor neighbourhoods.
It all seems very shady. But, I just crossed most of the US twice, and what I’m really seeing is ‘when did this station last fill its tanks, and what did it pay then’. I’ve gotten sweet deals at small rural stations that are still doling out gas bought earlier, while the super high volume ones are charging more because they paid more.
There is also the effect of ‘how greedy is the local distributor, and what are state taxes running’, if prices seem high, drive 200 more miles and it will change.
Israel to supply Germany with jet fuel amid shortages caused by Iran war
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-895288
sure thing – with which refinery? will germany grasp at israeli propaganda to send weapons to continue genocide against muslims? probably. nothing changes.
Since when did Israel become an oil producer? It steals oil from Syria (not widely reported) and I believe that is being cut back bigly.
Although it does refine and export petroleum. Maybe Israel will send Germany the itty bit of jet fuel it is saving by pretty much not allowing Israelis to leave by air.
Germany stopped opposing the ICJ genocide case. Is this a bribe to get them to make noise against that suit again?
Buddy in Houston, where all the refineries are, told me gas was about to hit $4.00 there where it’s normally cheaper. It was $4.50 or so around New England this past weekend.
Loves, which is a big rig/auto gas station of size has been at $2.00 more per gallon per diesel versus 87 octane gas in price since the war got going, and I notice many other retailers at closer to a buck difference in price, and why would Loves not be competitive on diesel, as they are on regular gas-always the low price leader?
My best guess is that Love’s caters to the Interstate crowd. Most long haul trucking happens on Interstates. “Big rigs” which rely on Diesel fuel are a large niche market that is almost constrained to use Interstate adjacent stations for several reasons. The grift involved comes “with the territory.”
Stay safe. “See the USA before it goes away.”
See it via Route 66 – which is now 100 years old this November-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Route_66
If you ever plan to wreck the west
Travel my way
Take the highway that’s the best
Get your kicks on Route 666
The resupply line runs frayed
More than two thousand miles all the way
Get your kicks on Route 666
Now you go through Kabul
Helmand Province, the whole kit and kaboodle
And Sadr City looks mighty pretty
You’ll see Fallujah
Trip on Tripoli
Caracas, Venezuela
Don’t forget Damascus
Tehran, Hormuz, or Mogadishu
Won’t you get hip to this timely tip
When you make that Hellaponnesian trip
Get your kicks on Route 666
Won’t you get hip to this timely tip
When you make that Hellaponnesian trip
Get your kicks on Route 666
Get your kicks on Route 666
Get your kicks on Route 666
Route 66, performed by Nat King Cole
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRX_NZ7kTt0&list=RDuRX_NZ7kTt0
Inspired. I can hear the syncopated six sixty six on the chorus.
There once was a TV show called Route 66 where the two heroes would drive around in their, yes, Chevrolet (Corvette) encountering slice of life stories.
Most of Route 66 no longer exists although Interstate 40 follows much of it. However out West Route 66 tourist sites are ubiquitous.
We of a certain age got more of our car saga ideas from On the Road where a fictionalized Kerouac and pal zoomed to Denver at 100 mph in their Hudson. Cars back then could be boho.
The old highway persists even in Illinois. For more authentic time travel, try US 30 across Nebraska, along the opposite bank of the broad Platte River from I-80. It’s a fossilized tourist strip with cement dinosaurs, frontier parks and Oregon Trail shrines galore, with the Union Pacific main line keeping the towns alive for meatpacking by immigrants. Still a fine drive.
US 30 is a fine, fascinating drive indeed. Amazing display of hometown movie houses. Well worth the time and effort to break up a transcontinental trip—daylight drive Rts 2/30/40/50/60 and Interstate the nights…
If you’re driving to look on the US Rts, it’s taking more and more intentionality to stay on the ‘Business’ road and skirt the ‘Bypass’ set-ups.
I have a book about route 30 aka The Lincoln Highway. It was the first cross country auto route.
And snippets of 66 exist out west but that’s about it. I haven’t driven much in Illinois.
There is in fact an actual Rt. 666, though it’s been renamed 191 and 491, because, you know…
In southern Arizona it is an “unpatrolled” road over an incredibly beautiful landscape, with massive vistas, and no guardrails on any of the many curves. It can take weeks to find missing motorcyclists.
In ’76, a musician girlfriend and I drove to CA on said route. We both had sisters there in Frisco. It was early January but past Missouri the weather was fair. We had agreed to not have anything to drink along the way but by the TX panhandle we had a thirst and picked up a big bottle of beer each. Just after I’m not sure whether it was the road or the desert we were driving on, they looked so similar. It hardly seemed to matter, it was desolate. We got to Albuquerque and we needed a layover. There was an adjoining bar/grille at the motel (we had two rooms, I meant to play my violin, she was a percussionist and could pound on anything – :-)). We met two guys, I brushed mine off but she took hers back and got laid. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Something to keep in mind but big trucks do not pay the retail price for fuel. They are on some kind of fuel contract where, depending on their volume, they negotiate prices with the big chains like Loves, Pilot, etc.
It is the same with jet fuel. At my local airport, the contract price is $1/g below retail. The big boys that have higher volumes than little old me have even better pricing.
That being said, diesel and jet fuel/kerosene come from the same part of the barrel. Also, the light sweet crude we produce in the US does not produce much of those products. Those products require heavier crude that must be imported. that drives up costs for diesel vs gasoline.
On day one my local gas was $2.64 gallon. Now it is $4.99.
On another note, does anyone want to make polymarket bets on whether Trump cancels/postpones the visit to China?
You’re lucky, I live in Newfoundland, Canada and gas is 2.10 a litre so about 7.95 a gallon. Furnace oil is 1.80 a litre. Food prices are sky rocketing, ground beef is close to 16 dollars a kg or just under 8 dollars a pound, a tray of 8 chicken thighs is only a dollar cheaper, potatoes and other root veg have doubled and tripled in price.
I’m using these example because these are staple foods that are produced in province. Most everything else we have to get shipped in as we are an island. I honestly have no idea how families will feed and heat themselves when the real pain starts hitting an the next two months.
As each days goes by Iran holds more leverage over Trump.
Maybe there is actually someone who has enough sway to have stopped Trump from more bombing of Iran and the repercussions it would bring. But who?
‘No doubt Team Trump hopes China will muscle Araghchi in person.’
Good thing I wasn’t drinking my coffee when I read that. China and Iran are de facto allies and both are In BRICS. Why should China help Trump throttle Iran so that Trump can cut the delivery of oil to China from that country? It’s like when the US and EU were demanding that China lean on Russia to halt the war in the Ukraine. You do wonder what Araghchi and Xi are talking about and what will transpire out of their talks.
Despite conflicting reports as to how exposed China is & will be to coming shocks, there is certainly a need for their flow of inputs to resume. Plus as a net exporter China’s economy will suffer in a global recession / depression, so it’s reasonable to imagine that they would pressure the Iranians to accept deescalation if a viable offramp exists (keyword ‘viable’, and yes I’m aware of the absurdity when discussing the agreement-incapable US and foaming-at-the-mouth Israel). For leverage there is the Chinese assistance with ISR we’ve heard so much about, and which the Iranians no doubt rely on as part of their deterrence.
To assume that China is not always going to put China’s interests first would be silly.
Do not underestimate US arrogance. Trump again tweeted in the last week that China should send ships to open the Strait of Hormuz.
But see above, this looks like at best a trial balloon floated through a favorite White House stenographer to again successfully snooker a happily complicit Mr. Market.
I am in awe. Has the stock market even been so thoroughly manipulated in this century? The disconnect is a sight to behold, truly.
I appreciate the partial explanation of markets moved by algorithms that read happy headlines and buy.
Maybe they should, by taking out the blockading USN ships.
CNN is starting to report real information about the war.
From Jimmy Dore with Ray McGovern. utube.
Iran Inflicted “UNPRECEDENTED DESTRUCTION” On U.S. Bases Reports CNN! w/ Ray McGovern
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifMs0JsvDsw
T’was but a scratch.
Monty Python. / ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs
I drop by the online site of the SF Paper to look at what they feel is important on a daily basis, for the last week there has been no War coverage.
None.
Nothing to see here, move along.
Correction, there is a post about the strait being reopened and the War being over this morning.
Now that Trump has ended another War he should be a lock for the Nobel Peace prize.
So much winning!
Premium gas was already $7.07 yesterday morning in lovely Santa Rosa, with $8 on the way to start the tourist season.
There’s nothing but blue skies and good times ahead!
He should have been a shoe-in from day 1.
With previous recipients being Kissinger and Obama, it means the opposite of what it’s named.
Rreport on China-Iran Foreign Minister meeting
https://english.news.cn/20260506/e3f72c220645489584c38a9f12913cf9/c.html
Thanks a ton.
It basically says China wants a pony, as in the Strait repoened (“an immediate and full ceasefire” would have to include the US ending its blockade, which is an act of war).
The Iranians oh so politely are giving no ground:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4586937-massive-oil-short-trade-raises-questions-after-iran-deal-reports
NO1 is saying that late last week the number of May 2026 WTI futures went from 60,000 to 3,000 in 48 hours. They didn’t transfer further along the curve, they were deleted and not rolled.
Sellers refused to deliver at the paper price and buyers agreed to forget the contracts ever existed. I don’t know if their is true but imagine the same thing happening to Treasury futures one day.
Russia to start buying forex as Middle East war oil windfall arrives
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russia-start-buying-forex-middle-east-war-oil-windfall-arrives-2026-05-06/
The U.S. continues transferring aid to Israel even as it flouts American redlines in the West Bank.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/israeli-settler-violence-continues-under-american-neglect/
Just wondering out loud — supposing that, taking an example, the hospitality industry goes into depression due to collapse in air travel, would it be feasible for some sort of PPP-like program to ameliorate some of the impacts on workers?
—
I’m trying to imagine what major resource shortages looks like. I would think it would be desirable to have orderly prioritization of scarce goods toward the most vital uses (of course, “most vital” is a policy choice, and our politics does not favor human flourishing).
’40s era style rationing and command economy would be politically unpalatable because socialism; OTOH, this kind of socialism did win WWII (at least in the Pacific; Soviet socialism won the war in the European theatre). Does USG have operational capacity to do something like this? Government got quite big and muscular in the ’30s and ’40s. Perhaps it could happen again, though the domestic resource base is more limited than at that time.
Does USG have operational capacity to do something like this?
Can pigs fly? No.
The USG as currently constituted no way and no how remotely has any of the competencies for anything like you suggest, and anyway the people now on top wouldn’t be the people on top any more and would do everything in their power to stop such changes.
The US is going down.
It … might.
So long as the pain was suffered by only the Little Peoples and so long as it was carefully curated and presented as being for good cause (after some sort of horrible incident, preferably), it’s quite possible that the USG could kick something into gear.
See further examples at “what happened during COVID.”
Can US pigs fly? No.
In the case of 155 mm shells US was producing 14000 per month in 2021.
Since then US gave away 3,000,000 155 mm shells to Kiev.
It was producing 40000 per month through late 2025.
Can US build B-21 without waivered specs and huge cost overruns, can pigs fly?
Same for new ICBM and fixes to make F-35 reliable!
Look at USS Laundry fire! aka USS poopie Ford.
Dig into some of the winners in the last 2 major ‘main street help’ packages bestowed upon us – Covid and TARP:
https://www.citizen.org/news/corporations-that-received-billions-during-the-pandemic-laid-off-thousands-of-workers-and-gave-ceos-millions/
https://www.propublica.org/article/these-billionaires-received-taxpayer-funded-stimulus-checks-during-the-pandemic
https://fastercapital.com/content/TARP-Recipients–Who-Benefited-from-the-Bailout.html
https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/
In short, yes, there are always trillions to give to the top 10%.
Note on the jet fuel crisis, flights from non-fuel crisis nations to fuel crisis nations become infeasible due to the inability to refuel for the return!
Additionally, although I believe jet fuel reserves are known, I do not believe anyone has a clue about refinery resupply, as I do not believe anyone knows what refineries need what Gulf input to continue producing jet fuel*. The global refining industry is a very complex, proprietary web with first and second-order strands everywhere.
*except the autarchic Russia and likely China, which emphasizes resiliency as much as possible.
Carriers can haul more fuel than they require for the flight. But your point is generally correct.
I worry about an upcoming trip to Hong Kong….. Cross Pacific is too far, so even if Chinese carriers have fuel in China, if LAX does not, they are not flying here.
Yves, confused about the footnote regarding loss of lubricants due to attack on the Jubail facility. SABIC is a very small player in this market, which has a lot of suppliers. The big boys (BP, Shell, Exxon, Sinopec) are probably around 40% market share combined. Is there a source for your concern?
Not relating to the Jubail facility specifically, but my comment from April 25th was on the lubricant industry woes stemming from the war on Iran here. The big issue is the hit to base oils production, where US imports mostly come from either the Persian Gulf area or from Asia, which is…dependent on Persian Gulf oil imports to create the base oils. I’ll repost the meat and potatoes, which comes from a Lyden Oil Company newsletter they sent to their clients in April:
Rafe Britton, an oil industry engineer based in Australia, runs a lubrication channel on YouTube that highlighted the lubricant industry supply shock that is incoming back in early April which goes through the supply chain issues: No Oil, No Business: How to Prepare for the Biggest Lubricant Supply Disruption in History
From the video description:
Thank you.
On Chevron operations at Jubail:
https://www.chevron.com/worldwide/saudi-arabia
Olefins are primarily required to create Group IV polyalphaolefin (PAO) synthetic base oils.
See more:
https://www.machinerylubrication.com/Read/29113/base-oil-groups
A minor pedantic quibble… the bolded line in paragraph 3 should substitute “speculators” for “investors “…
This is not a game of fundamentals today, it’s momentum and poker.
The stock market has not been based on fundamentals since Greenspan backed down on his “irrational exuberance” remark in 1996. So I stand by my comment. I hate hate stocks because they are entirely speculative instruments. The confer holders with extremely poor legal rights, as in to a dividend if the company makes money and decides to pay a dividend, and a vote on a very few matters which can be diluted at any time. If you try investing on fundamentals (unless you can get a control block), you wind up as road kill.
Look at how most CEOs prioritize price manipulation (buybacks) over investing in their business. They even borrowed in the ZIRP era to buy back stock!
In software engineering the last 20 years or so there has been the rise of a methodology going by various names but commonly called agile, where, instead of writing a gigantic design document up front that no one is ever going to read and may or may not describe something that works, the agile developers evolve a series of short implementation steps. These steps are then implemented one at a time, verified to work or not work, and then the team gets together and decides how to build on that.
The result is the gradual evolution of a system that works at any particular point, and gradually adds more working capabilities over time. A big advantage of this process is that you learn what works as you go, and can easily back up or change course when that seems like the best approach.
It seems like the political process to end a war would benefit from something like that, where small steps are taken to bring the belligerents into a state of closer and closer cooperation, and doing it in a way that the parties find workable and self-reforcing at each step. This would minimize the amount of trust needed and show real world progress every step of the way that encouraged additional cooperation going forward. It would also involve wider and wider segments of the belligerent countries in the program of ending the war, rather than having 20 people go sit in a room for 6 months.
I don’t know if there are already real world examples of a political accommodation being reached over time by this strategy. There probably are, though nothing comes to mind at the moment. It’s a fun thought experiment to imagine how you might end the current war through a series of small forward steps (user stories in agile).
Although in the real world, what you’d get instead, is adherence to ceremony, and no agile process actually taking place. We get stand-up fetishism instead. But not agile. Perhaps still an improvement upon the current process of Trump negotiating with himself though.
In some sense, we have been doing exactly that. Trump et al like to stick together short term solutions that stablizes things for next week or two, or maybe a few months, but does absolutely nothing to address the “root causes” (to paraphrase the Russians) of the problem, does not set up any broad framework to deal with problems in larger context, etc. (and, to be fair, this long preceded Trump–thus, the obsession with ceasefire first, then deal with everything else later mentality in Ukraine and elsewhere that went on for a long time.) To be honest, there is a genuine appeal to this: whatever the “real” problems are, that’s going to be difficult to solve. If you stop fighting now, that’s going to create some short to medium term buy in to the “not fighting” status and you can go on from there. And that’s how the Korean War “ended,” to be fair.
I also don’t think it’ll work in many instances, though: the end of the fighting last summer in the Middle East being the prima facie example: the fight was halted on rather flimsy set of “narratives.: But there was no buy-in to the state of not fighting, only preparations for more serious fighting later, which duly took place half a year later.
XXYY: It seems like the political process to end a war would benefit from something like that, where small steps are taken to bring the belligerents into a state of closer and closer cooperation, and doing it in a way that the parties find workable and self-reforcing at each step. This would minimize the amount of trust needed and show real world progress every step of the way that encouraged additional cooperation going forward.
In the real world exactly that would be a large part of how people like Alastair Crooke worked as an intermediary setting up negotiations between bitterly opposed enemies, as SIS (MI6) had him doing.
As an addendum, when I first heard Crooke, I’d occasionally note that he talked so slowly and and calmly and carefully — like a sleepy dormouse, as I thought of it. But, of course, that’s exactly the kind of manner and person called for in such contexts.
Thanks for the “sleepy dormouse”! I recently forwarded a friend one of Alastair’s talks, and she complained about the slow pace.
Myself, I’m fond of Alastair and quite happy to proceed at the pace of a dormouse.
It’s generally called diplomacy. Many countries have people trained at this art, called diplomats. Sadly, the US is not one of those countries.
As Yves has pointed out, for negotiations to work you need at least some overlap in goals. When the goals are mutually exclusive, negotiations can’t lead to agreement, and countries move to war until one imposes conditions on the other.
The US has been trying to impose conditions on Iran, but failing. Iran has been resisting those attempts and succeeding. The US is having difficulty understanding this outcome. Like my poodle trying to understanding what I say (with apologies to the poodle, she’s actually pretty smart).
The Trump message to Israel: Great idea! Over the next two weeks, therefore, the United States will be embarking on Operation Let’s You and Him Fight. This will consist of permanently rotating US soldiers and equipment out of the Persian Gulf area, to be replaced on a man for man basis with Israeli soldiers and equipment.
By eliminating the middleman in this way, the US expects the war on Iran to wrap up very quickly.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Israel’s attacked Beirut again.
Must be a day ending in “y.”
It’s interesting after making a fuss about Lebanon being included in the ceasefire, there are no apparent consequences for it not being included in the ceasefire.
It’s … confusing.
It’s apparently the first time since it agreed to the ‘ceasefire’ in Lebanon. But fairly predictable if you assume Israel doesn’t want peace in Iran or Lebanon. The USA’s supposedly considering a memorandum of understanding with Iran? Sabotage it. And how, when the US seems to have forbidden further Israeli strikes on Iran? Beirut. Should make Iran even less likely to agree to whatever the US proposes.
World doesn’t grasp implications of ‘largest energy crisis in history’: IEA executive director
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/mideast-conflict/article/world-doesnt-grasp-implications-of-largest-energy-crisis-in-history-iea-executive-director/
Japan-China tensions have no visible off-ramp
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/05/06/japan/politics/china-japan-security-tensions/
Capitalism, stupidly based on the hopelessly reductionist signal that is price, cannot really grasp the implications, when the price signaling itself is broken due to impressive market manipulation.
Sooner or later, reality is gonna intrude.
6 in 10 Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling Iran, new poll finds
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/6-in-10-americans-disapprove-of-how-trump-is-handling-iran-new-poll-finds
Trump Embarrasses His Own Officials as He Ditches Latest Iran Plan; President Trump has abandoned his own plan to fix the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, much to the surprise of his Cabinet.
https://newrepublic.com/post/210003/trump-embarrasses-officials-hegseth-rubio-ditches-iran-plan-srait-hormuz
Newsmax reporter to Hegseth: ‘When did the president decide to capitulate?’
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5864147-newsmax-reporter-hegseth-press-briefing-trump-iran-war/
Expert Puts True Cost of Trump’s Iran War at $72 Billion—Nearly 3 Times Higher Than Pentagon Said; “The $25 billion war cost given by Pentagon Secretary Hegseth and acting Comptroller Hurst before Congress was a lie. It was a denial of the Iran war’s spiraling costs.”
https://www.commondreams.org/news/pentagon-cost-iran-war
France moves aircraft carrier to Red Sea with eye on Hormuz mission
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/french-aircraft-carrier-group-moving-into-red-sea-gulf-aden-2026-05-06/
The Charles de Gaulle” has now passed through the Suez Canal and is heading towards the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
It wouldn’t be surprising that Trump is suffering from ‘choice overload’ coupled with diminished cognitive capacity. Also, his anxiety will probably increase as gas prices increase, inflation increases, & bond rates increase, all of which will make his disapproval rates go up. Once the decision making ability goes, then more blunders will follow suit., E.G To open the door, Instead of twisting the handle, he will wrench himself while pulling on the knob. In addition, the pattern seems to be developing that for each Trump action, Iran’s reaction is to ‘hand the hot potato’ back to him in order to further imbalance him. In a zero sum game, doubling down on zero, won’t produce a ‘win’. Whatever Trump does or doesn’t do, it seems an economic tsunami is on its way.
Also, when one considers Iran’s strategic objectives ,as outlined in their 10 or 14 points, then one has to consider when will they consider that they have obtained security (freedom from attacks ) , i.e. if they last long enough to achieve that. Their operational strategy seems to be directed at neutralising the Arabian Peninsula, neutralising Israel, and neutralising the Trump regime. Note: The Persian Gulf is the pivot point and if regime change in DC, then Israel strength is potentially diminished. If If one assumes that Trump will not be the one to solve the problem of another forever war, then the question becomes who will rise to that task.Here is will it it gets interesting, Trump has no apparent successor/heir and those want to be ‘s face the same dilemma that Harris encountered – how to act independently of the superior whom they might wish to replace. Rubio? Vance? Or will it be some Democrat on a stallion, etc?
Anthony Martin:.… then the question becomes who will rise to that task
No one in the US will ‘rise to the task’ of ‘solving the problem of another forever war.’
Reality will solve that problem — is solving it now — by demonstrating every day that there is no correlation whatsoever between the US’s delusional global hegemonic self-image and its existing pitiful military capabilities in the real world.
I think project freedom was a genuine attempt to escort ships in Hurmuz not with warships but with warplanes. Likely loss of two air-tankers seems to put a lid on that attempt as well.
Quite likely.
In order to provide surveillance, and command and control large, high flying, slow aircraft such as refuelers and E-3 AWACS must fly at altitude in repeated “racetracks” that are susceptible to mid and long-range surface to air defensive systems.
In short, “project freedom” was not tactically feasible unless US were willing to lose a number of KC-135 and E-3 aircraft the E-3 is crewed by over 20 radar operators……
If any ship owners would trust Trump’s insurance pan.
Hegseth’s red, white and blue dome “don’t hunt” as an old country boy would observe.
US forces disable Iranian-flagged tanker, CENTCOM says
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605062820
The pro-Israel political consensus is collapsing in both parties
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/05/06/israel-political-division-democrats-republicans/
The Scandal That Should Be the End for Fratboy Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-scandal-that-should-be-the-end-for-fratboy-defense-secretary-pete-hegseth/
Downstream effects are piling up
Higher Gas Prices Are Hitting Lower-Income Americans the Hardest (NY Times)
This has been quite the experiment since Obama’s jobless recovery over just how much squeeze is possible before something breaks; So far, it seems like a lot of squeeze. Although we’ve gotten Trump. Twice. What happens when we move outside the realm of the purely political? Ongoing decay under the hood.
Re: Benedict Donald
You can’t go far with a blown head gasket, combined with a pair of vocal cords.
Iran ‘may not know’ it is militarily defeated, Trump says
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605068821
A 600-person search continues for missing US soldiers off Morocco’s coast
https://apnews.com/article/us-soldiers-missing-morocco-7ffe6fd1915c0c4bfedf6231b7e92b28
This Trump Proposal Could Result in Millions of Americans Losing Their Retirement Savings
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/opinion/trump-retirement-private-equity-401k.html
Trump’s New Counterterrorism Strategy Focuses on Combatting Transgender “Ideology”
https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/05/trumps-new-counterterrorism-strategy-focuses-on-combatting-transgender-ideology/
Trump’s grim retreat shows there’s no easy way out of the crisis he’s created
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trump-grim-retreat-shows-no-easy-way-out-crisis-created-4401000
Keep quiet ‘so we don’t go to jail’: the Israelis charged with bribery after suspicious bets placed on Iran strikes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/06/polymarket-israel-iran-war-arrest
Keep quiet ‘so we don’t go to jail’: the Israelis charged with bribery after suspicious bets placed on Iran strikes
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/06/polymarket-israel-iran-war-arrest
How the AP uncovered US big tech’s role in China’s digital police state
https://apnews.com/article/chinese-surveillance-silicon-valley-uyghurs-tech-xinjiang-00bed6421ad8d2ccc6e69f104babe892
US fires on Iranian oil tanker as Trump pressures Tehran for deal to end war
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-war-china-may-6-2026-3d061a90ccde095178d9b988d94d08f3
Isn’t it supposed to be over now?
Russia’s seaborne oil export revenue has surged to its highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reports
https://united24media.com/world/iran-war-pushes-russian-oil-revenue-to-highest-level-since-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine-18519
Latvian defense chief says NATO must be ‘ready to fight Russia tonight’
https://tvpworld.com/93112560/latvian-minister-sprds-says-nato-must-be-ready-to-fight-russia-immediately
It’s official, Trump has declared war on the citizens of the USA:
https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/insane-pre-crime-strategy-unveiled
I thought this already happened with the memo but I guess its moving up from a memo to a policy and eventually statutes? Is there any implication of it being in the strategy other than it being a guideline for further implementations?
This is in keeping with something I’ve been saying since Trump won in Dec ’24:
There are a whole load of gen-x age men involved in the Trump2 project and their formative experience was the War on Terror. They are applying the lessons they took from that experience to governing. The American people are now the “hostile population”.
It’s true for the nutbags behind this CT policy (Gorka, and I’m guessing Miller was involved); it’s true for all the extended Palantir family (in private sector and gov sector).
Trump will die someday and these guys hope to inherit the Realm. They have new values and an ideology that the wider population still hasn’t grasped. They are eager to kill and neutralise as many “enemies” as they can.
IMO They are the real threat, not Trump.
I would include millenials and Zillenials as well. For this group there was strong influences from unmoderated internet like 4chan and early Reddit, war on terror, bigotry towards queer folk, and later on influences like Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson who captured elements of all that culture. Many young men and boys from those generations played video games which brought them to the mentioned online spaces and exposed them to those ideas. Some of us grew up and got out of it and others got trapped in the pipeline
I don’t disagree but it’s specific gen x men driving it.
It’s a long term project to get younger followers. Thiel’s first first into this was a failed NASCAR and Conservative Politics magazine in the early 2000s. He (and others) fund a lot of the manosphere content.
theres a snippet of a poem written out here on the bar that i see every day, but is also continually bubbling up in my consciousness during these times:
“the age of political reason is long departed, so teach us madness”
-Nizar Gabbani.
i thought the teabilly times were weird…
Iran has hit far more U.S. military assets than reported, satellite images show
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/05/06/iran-us-bases-satellite-images/
Great!
Now I wonder why we can’t see images showing whether or not Iran has also hit far more Israeli military assets than reported.
larry wilkerson has become my third fave in the youtube interview space(after hudson and crooke):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzCI7IDtzXg
i am pleased that there are people who dont live on a dead end dirt road in nowhere texas thinking like this
Iran apparently not enthused about Axis report either.
See also
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/06/768177/Iran-United-States-Axios-Qalibaf-Trump
“Operation Trust Me Bro” lol
Iran Is Using Alternative Routes To Bypass US Naval Blockade
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-pakistan-turkey-russia-caspian-china/33751260.html
Didn’t anyone else notice Amos Hochstein lying in his interview?
At 4:30 of the Hochstein interview, the reporter asked Hochstein:
“If it was President Biden and you were advising him, you know, were you guys pushing to do something of this effect in Iran?”
Hochstein answered: “No.”
Yet two weeks earlier, on Face the Nation, Hochstein said:
“And that’s why I was supportive of President Trump joining it in June to take the strikes that we had thought internally in the Biden administration we may have to take if there was a second term. We thought that the spring summer of 2025 was probably we may have to be there in the same place.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuhJS1d-F6Y&t=200s