POTUS Trump, much of his regime and many American CEOs were in China yesterday to meet with President Xi Jinping so the Iran War was on the backburner to some extent.
UPDATED: May 15, 8:15AM ET
I missed the Saudi non-aggression pact proposal and they did a massive prisoner swap with the Houthis. Added that after the Straits section.
But there was a little bit of ship seizing, a sprinkle of ship sinking, continued fighting in Lebanon, and some votes in Washington, D.C.
Trump responds to Xi’s “Thucydides Trap”
Xi’s opening remarks included a reference to the “Thucydides Trap” which is popularly understood to mean that conflict between a rising and a declining power is inevitable:
Xi Jinping: The whole world is watching our meeting. Currently, transformation not seen in a century is accelerating across the globe and the international situation is fluid and turbulent. The world has come to a new crossroads. Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major country relations? Can we meet global challenges together and provide more stability for the world?
Trump interpreted this to mean that Xi was putting China in the rising power position and the U.S. in the declining power position and he responded on Truth Social to Xi’s remarks and here are the key bits:
When President Xi very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden Administration, and on that score, he was 100% correct. Our Country suffered immeasurably with open borders, high taxes, transgender for everybody, men in women’s sports, DEI, horrible trade deals, rampant crime, and so much more!
President Xi was not referring to the incredible rise that the United States has displayed to the world during the 16 spectacular months of the Trump Administration, which includes all-time high stock markets and 401K’s, military victory and thriving relationship in Venezuela, the military decimation of Iran (to be continued!) — Strongest military on earth by far, economic powerhouse again…
Trump also spoke to Fox News’ Sean Hannity and added the following about the Iran War, via the NYT:
“He said he’s not going to give military equipment, that’s a big statement,” Trump said, attributing the remarks to Xi. “He said that today, that’s a big statement, said that strongly. But at the same time, he said, you know, they buy a lot of their oil there, and they’d like to keep doing that. He’d like to see Hormuz Strait open.”
Today Xi and Trump will engage in smaller meetings that Trump likely hopes will produce some of those famous “deals” he likes to brag about so much.
Now let’s move from East Asia to West Asia and talk about the Strait of Hormuz.
Ship Seized, Another Sunk
The AP reported on the day’s maritime doings in the war zone:
A ship anchored off the United Arab Emirates was seized and taken toward Iran and another — a cargo ship near Oman — sank after being attacked, authorities said Thursday, as tensions escalated near the Strait of Hormuz.
It wasn’t immediately clear who was behind these incidents, but they happened as a senior Iranian official reiterated his country’s claim of control over the waterway and another said it had a right to seize oil tankers connected to the U.S.
The BBC had more on the ship that got seized:
A vessel reportedly operating as a “floating armoury” in the Gulf of Oman has been seized by Iranian military personnel, according to the maritime risk management company Vanguard.
The ship is now “bound for Iranian territorial waters”, the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) organisation said.
BBC Verify has checked ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic which shows the vessel – identified by Vanguard as the Honduras-flagged Hui Chuan – last broadcast its location 70km (40 miles) north-east of Fujairah in the UAE on Wednesday.
Hui Chuan’s operators told Vanguard it was operating as a floating armoury which stores weapons for security firms who protect ships at sea from attack by pirates.
And the ship that got sunk:
…an Indian-flagged vessel was attacked off the coast of Oman on Wednesday, according to Indian officials.
The Haji Ali “reportedly sank” off the coast of Oman, following a suspected explosion believed to have been caused by a “drone or missile”, according to Vanguard.
“All Indian crew on board are safe and we thank the Omani authorities for rescuing them,” Indian authorities said on Thursday.Ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic shows the 57m (187ft) vessel left Berbera Port in Somalia on 6 May. Its intended destination was Sharjah in the UAE, the Indian shipping ministry said.
The ship was carrying livestock “when a fire reportedly broke out onboard, forcing the crew to abandon ship before the vessel sank,” Vanguard said.
Iranian leadership also went on the offensive on social media with Parliamentary Speaker MB Ghalibaf hitting the US defense budget and Trump’s Secretary of Defense War Pete Hegseth:
So you're funding Hegseth the failed TV host at rates unheard of since 2007, so he can cosplay as Secretary of War in our backyard in Hormuz?
You know what's crazier than $39 trillion in debt? Paying a pre-GFC premium to fund a LARP and all you'll get is a brand new GFC. pic.twitter.com/YBGWEzYgru
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) May 14, 2026
The Saudis have been busy.
Saudis Making Moves Against the War
Saudi Arabia has discussed the idea of a non-aggression pact between Middle East states and Iran as part of talks with allies on how to manage regional tensions once the US-Israeli war with the Islamic republic ends, diplomats said.
Riyadh is eyeing as a potential model the 1970s Helsinki Process that eased tensions in Europe during the cold war, said two western diplomats, as the region anticipates a postwar Iran that is weakened but still poses a threat to its neighbours. They added that the non-aggression pact was among various ideas being considered.
…the months of war have created a new sense of urgency among Arab and Muslim states to rethink their alliances and the region’s security apparatus.
Many European capitals, and the EU institutions, have swung behind the Saudi idea and have urged other Gulf countries to support it, the diplomats said. They view it as the best way to avoid future conflict and provide Tehran with guarantees that it also would not be attacked.
They also did a prisoner swap with Ansar Allah, again per the FT:
Yemen’s warring parties have agreed to the biggest prisoner swap in more than a decade in a sign that Saudi Arabia is stepping up efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Arab state and keep Houthi rebels out of the war in Iran.
Under the deal, the Iranian-aligned Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni government will release 1,750 detainees, including seven Saudis held by the rebels.
It is the largest prisoner swap since Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen’s civil war in 2015 to lead a coalition against the Houthis, after the rebels ousted the internationally recognised government and seized control of the capital, Sana’a.
Analysts say the deal is an important trust-building step as Saudi Arabia seeks to revive a stalled UN-led peace process, keep a check on tensions in Yemen and encourage the powerful Houthis not to become further involved in the US-Israeli war with Iran.
Now let’s drop by Lebanon.
Hezbollah Support Still Strong
This is per the BBC:
Last Saturday an Israeli air strike, at lunchtime and without warning, destroyed a building where a family displaced by the war were sheltering in a town in southern Lebanon called Saksakiyeh. A ceasefire, announced last month, has failed to stop the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the Shia Muslim armed group. In this part of the country, Israel’s attacks come day and night.
…
Nine people were killed there. The Israeli military said it had targeted Hezbollah members who were operating from a building that was being used for military purposes, and that they had posed an “immediate threat”.It did not give details. Relatives said the victims were a woman in her 70s, a son and his wife, another son, her four grandchildren, and her great-granddaughter, who was two years old. (The Israeli military said it was “reviewing reports regarding harm to uninvolved civilians”.)
…
Some of the people I met were exhausted from constant wars but, as the Israeli attacks and occupation continued, many still believed Hezbollah was the only force capable of defending them.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese government, a force capable of defending no one, and Israel continued their negotiations in Washington per Reuters:
The United States cast Israel-Lebanon talks held in Washington on Thursday as “productive and positive” and a State Department official said more discussions aimed at ending their conflict will continue on Friday.
A senior Lebanese official said earlier that Lebanon will demand that U.S. ally Israel cease fire in the face-to-face talks, as Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah continued to trade blows despite a U.S.-backed truce declared last month. An Israeli government spokesperson said the talks were taking place with the goal of disarming Hezbollah and reaching a peace agreement.
That wasn’t the only Iran War related action happening in DC on Thursday.
War Powers Vote Fails in the House
The Democrats’ “Rotating Villain” game was strong as they lost a War Powers resolution by one vote, when the co-sponsor of the bill voted against, via the WaPo (archived):
The House on Thursday failed to advance a resolution requiring the Trump administration to end its war in Iran — the first time it has considered such a measure since the lapsing of a legal deadline for lawmakers to authorize the conflict.
The measure failed after a dramatic tie vote of 212 to 212, with three Republicans joining nearly all Democrats.
The Senate on Wednesday rejected a similar initiative.
Rep. Jared Golden (Maine), the lone Democrat to vote no, indicated in a statement that he would support a forthcoming “clean” bid to halt the war.The measure that failed Thursday was proposed early in the war by a faction of pro-Israel Democrats — Golden among them — as a compromise intended to win some Republican backing. It would have given the Trump administration 30 days to seek lawmakers’ explicit authorization to prolong the conflict.
In explaining his no vote, Golden argued that those terms are no longer relevant because hostilities have already gone on longer than the War Powers Act permits.
Three Republicans voted to end the war in the House: Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, and Tom Barrett of Michigan.
Wednesday’s failed vote in the Senate featured three GOPers breaking with Trump: Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, and Rand Paul of Kentucky.
That wasn’t the only Iran War related activity in the Senate this week.
Before we get to the depressing lies of the Trump regime, I want to shout out Virginia Senator Tim Kaine for telling the Iranian side of the conflict with the U.S. in the Senate. He reviews the 1953 coup, the brutal U.S. backed dictatorship of the Shah, America’s role in backing the Iraq-Iran War and shooting down an Iranian passenger jet:
This is by far the smartest , and most honest take I have seen coming out from our elected officials in Congress.
Kudos to Senator @timkaine for telling the truth: pic.twitter.com/kqSDUY7JrJ— Sina Azodi (@Azodiac83) May 14, 2026
Now let’s get back to the usual lies.
Only One “Civilian Casualty Event”
US Admiral Brad Cooper testified in the Upper House and the NYT typed it up:
The senior officer overseeing U.S. combat operations in Iran told senators on Thursday that the destruction of an Iranian school, which Iranian officials said killed 175 people, may have been caused by a U.S. bomb and was the only civilian casualty event he knew of in a campaign of more than 13,600 strikes.
Admiral Brad Cooper’s testimony suggested that he believed that the U.S. military’s record since that Feb. 28 strike had been near perfect, a fact belied by investigations from human rights groups and news media organizations. Senators greeted Admiral Cooper’s claims with deep skepticism, and a human rights group that investigates civilian casualties in war called it “ridiculous.”
The U.S. military still has not taken responsibility for the school strike, which Admiral Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, said remained under investigation.
The New York Times has verified damage to 22 schools and 17 health care facilities. The Iranian Red Crescent Society, the country’s primary humanitarian relief organization, said on April 2 that at least 763 schools and 316 health care facilities had been damaged or destroyed in the war.
At least 1,700 Iranian civilians have been killed in the war, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency.
University of Chicago Prof. Robert Pape argues we likely haven’t seen the last casualties of America and Israel’s war on Iran, civilian and otherwise.
Escalation Trap Snapping
Pape responded to Robert Kagan’s “Checkmate in Iran” piece on his Substack:
…Kagan argued that the United States may already have suffered what he called a strategic defeat “that can neither be repaired nor ignored.” He warned that “there will be no return to the status quo ante” and acknowledged that Iran had fundamentally altered the regional balance despite weeks of devastating American and Israeli strikes.
That assessment matters because it amounts to a delayed recognition of the very structural problem many of us warned about before the war began.
For months, I argued that limited bombing campaigns against Iran were unlikely to produce decisive political outcomes because Iran’s dispersed missile systems, denial capabilities, and regional leverage made durable coercion extraordinarily difficult. The danger was never simply failed airstrikes.
The danger was that tactical frustration would generate pressure for broader escalation.
Kagan is now implicitly acknowledging the first half of that mechanism.
But his conclusion points toward more escalation.
Once policymakers accept that tactical military success has failed to produce strategic resolution, pressure grows inside Washington for expanded escalation. If short bombing campaigns fail, advocates demand longer campaigns. If airpower alone proves insufficient, pressure shifts toward broader targeting, expanded regional operations, cyber escalation, maritime confrontation, or eventually some form of ground commitment tied to securing missile sites or nuclear infrastructure.
That is the “trap” in the Escalation Trap.
Let’s wrap with some videos.
Prof Marandi Meets Sneako
Sneako is a massively popular live streamer with more than 1 million followers on YouTube and another million on X, and lately he’s been hosting Iranian spokesprofessor Seyed Mohammad Marandi on some of his Kick.com livestreams.
The link above should go directly to the 48 minute mark of the livestream which is where Sneako welcomes Prof. Marandi and their hour-long discussion begins.
But here’s the excerpt that’s getting shared on X:
Professor Mohammad Marandi claims Iran will help any sect of people that are being OPPRESSED, not matter the the race, religion or gender, even if they are Jewish 🤯🇮🇷
"We will defend the oppressed, even if the people being oppressed are Jewish" 💯 pic.twitter.com/lMKTcDLqrz
— GOATKO (@Goatedko) May 14, 2026
Readers may enjoy comparing Marandi’s discussion with Sneako with his visit with Judge Napolitano yesterday.
Janta Ka on the Xi-Trump Summit
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday failed to convince his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to pressure Iran to allow the free passage of ships through the Persian Gulf. On the other hand, the Chinese president warned the US to not meddle with affairs in Taiwan. Rifat Jawaid argues that this a huge setback to Trump, who was hoping to get China on his side during this historic visit.
Aguilar on Nima
Green Beret Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar is best known as a whistleblower on Israeli atrocities in Gaza but he was talking tactics with Nima:
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar: What’s very interesting to me is that the battlefield in southern Lebanon has not only become a peripheral conflict in the war with Iran in a way it has become the driving factor because Israel’s stance on the war in Iran not ending overall because Iran has tied Lebanon to (ceasefire negotiations) and that Israel intends to continue to fight in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has gained not only motivation for standing against an existential threat to Lebanon, but they are having quantifiable, measurable effects against the IDF in southern Lebanon militarily and psychologically.
When you look at the success that Hezbollah is having on the battlefield in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River (it) has become the the the rock of the Litani.
That is not surprising because it is clear to see the Israeli defense forces are designed to conduct defensive homeland style operations. They are very good in Gaza when they are dropping 2,000 pound bombs on neighborhoods and fighting unarmed women and children. when they have to go up against an enemy that is well equipped, well-trained, has motivation to defend, we see that they are not doing well.
Next let’s widen our scope a tad from the usual alt-media suspects.
That’s all for today, hang tough, y’all.
“Pape responded to Fred Kagan’s “Checkmate in Iran ””
Correction: Robert Kagan
Though they’re both neocons and their opinions are largely interchangeable.
Fixed. Thank you! I should have put Mr. Victoria Nuland, it’s the only thing that distinguishes Fred and his brother in my mind.
It’s Donald, the father, who was the root of this particular familial evil. I remember trying to listen to his Yale course on Ancient Greece, and lasting all of 35 minutes before deciding to spare my delicate sensibilities any further damage. The sons are pretty much interchangeable to me…
Regarding Trump’s long explanation why the US is not the declining power when Xi talked about the Thucydides Trap. Wasn’t it Trump that once said that if you are explaining, that you are losing?
IMHO, using 5th century BC Greek city-states as an analogy is about as convincing as the Munich Analogy was during the Vietnam War. In the present case, history isn’t just not repeating itself. It’s not even rhyming.
Even though it has been correct more times than not?
Since the concept was created (around 2011 by political scientist Graham Allison) it has been used multiple times when analyzing both recent and historic events.
I’m open to hearing why it’s not useful, but at present I think your position is not supported.
perhaps, but others have looked at the end of empires, and it is usually (very high percentage) in a conflict with a rising power. The old empire uses old tactics that do not work, have overextended themselves and have too many entrenched interests demanding their defense, and after having modernized decades prior, resist expensive updating. Add in hubris (MAGA) and nothing has changed in human nature.
The thing that immediately occurred to me is that this is rich language coming from DJT in 2026. What was the 2016 “Make America Great Again” rhetoric about if US was not already at that time a declining power?
—
Regarding G.O.A.T, perhaps a better framing would be GROFAZ.
But I do think that DJT will in future be seen to have been one of the most consequential US presidents, right up there with James Buchanan.
Attributed to Reagan. But very applicable in this instance. Trump didn’t even have a good explanation. That tweet was sad, low energy.
Poor Old Trump Always Tuckers Out Early
Heavy is the head that wears that crown!
That reminds me. I saw a comment the other day where someone was pining for the days when Dan Quayle misspelling potato was enough to disqualify him from being president.
Israeli army’s poor performance in Lebanon is interesting to watch. I watches one of the videos where Israeli post is demolished by repeated fibreoptic drone strikes. Tanks, APCs, mobile command post, Iron Dome launcher, all taken out one by one in a leasurly manner. No defenses, one tanks with a high top mesh that drone easily flies under to hit the engine deck.
It’s amazing that we are seeing this from a modern military four years into the Ukraine war.
The video of an operation carried out on the 12th May against an Israeli stronghold shows how fast Hezbollah is learning the tactics of drone engagement: in quick succession, drones struck a SUV driven by Israeli soldiers, then a lorry with communication gear, then a main battle tank, then a second communication lorry. Swarms of FPV drones guided by optical fibre: standard operating procedure in Ukraine by end 2024, early 2025.
On the other hand, I continue to be baffled by Israeli practices. A number of tanks have the very early, 2022-era grid atop turret add-on, but most tanks and armoured vehicles do not carry even that basic anti-drone protection.
From the videos, one can see that the Lebanese operators still have some way to become completely proficient with their tools (many drones seem to be pirouetting in very odd ways before striking), but they are learning really fast. In contrast, the Israelis seem to have preferred perfecting their skills in blowing up buildings.
I recently read that the Israeli military is frantically trying to set up a crash project to manufacture and deploy optical-fibre-guided FPV drones. I wonder why it took them so long to try adopting what has been state-of-the-art warfare for a couple of years; after all, Hezbollah and the IRGC have been shooting down the large, expensive Israeli Heron and Hermes MALE drones in numbers for quite a while already — just like the Russians had made the large MALE Bayraktars fielded by the Ukrainians unsurvivable by the second half 2022.
At the moment the IDF is deploying hundreds of thousands of square meters of anti-drone netting in Lebanon to protect their troops, not that that is a foolproof solution-
‘To date, approximately 158,000 square meters of this netting have been distributed to forces in the field. This volume is already staggering, but the military is currently in the process of procuring an additional 188,000 square meters to be delivered in the coming weeks. To put the scale into perspective, the total amount of netting acquired so far is equivalent to the area of roughly 20 soccer fields, marking one of the largest defensive engineering projects of the current war.’
https://www.jfeed.com/news-israel/idf-anti-drone-netting-lebanon
Of course once those vehicles are on the move, they have to leave that cover then whamo!
Wondering how long Hezbollah will take to adopt another technique applied at least since 2024 in the Russo-Ukrainian war: drones spreading thermite on enemy positions.
Well turnaround is only fair play. The IDF has been keen in using white phosphorous in southern Lebanon so it only seems just.
Holy crap, that’s War of the Worlds-level stuff.
Ironically, by leveling the whole settlements, Israelis are destroying the most effective form of cover against drones, urban areas. It makes it even easier for Hezbollah to find them and hit them.
It’s been said that the IDF is not really a military as it is more of an internal security force, not prepared for nor expecting actual opposition.
It’s not wrong.
See further examples at “US military” in regard to not prepared for actual opposition.
Trump may talk up coming to agreements with President Xi but I do not think that it will last. Trump came to all sorts of agreements with Putin in the Alaska Summit last year but as soon as he was back in DC, then it was business as usual and the agreements forgotten. You will probably find that within a week or two of returning home, that he will agree to ship a coupla billion dollars of weaponry to Taiwan while seizing more oil tankers headed to China. Then Putin will ring up Xi and say ‘I told you so, bro.’
Ever notice that these are always “handshake agreements” that somehow never make it to paper form? No Congressional approval needed. Sort of like the Ukraine “rare earths” malarkey that nobody talks about anymore. Strange how that disappeared like mist!
We have always been handshaking with Eastasia…. ;-)
In a recent commentary, Alexander Mercouris observed that the Alaska summit occurred with minimal preparation by the US side, and that DJT may not have understood the meaning of the understandings that the Russians believed had been agreed. He reported that there appeared to similarly be minimal preparation for the summit with Xi.
One gets the sense that from DJT’s perspective, these meetings are performative, for the sake of the appearance of being a consequential figure on the world stage.
It appears that USG has lost its capacity to do constructive things, and the changes DJT has made since Jan 2025 cannot have helped. Hopefully competencies of this kind still persist in US at lower levels of government and social organization.
“DJT may not have understood the meaning of the understandings that the Russians believed had been agreed”
THIS! 1000 times, THIS!
I think not Trump, neither Xi are in the mood for agreements. In the case of Trump this is the default position. If anything this summit is a show of positions diverging wider and wider. Start with the Thucydides trap talk and the slope is downwards towards Hormuz and Taiwan.
I found the reference to the “Rock of the Marne” interesting on several levels.
As the Iran War becomes more obviously a failure I expect Trump’s rage and need to dominate to be turned on the “Homeland”, there are already signs of this happening.
Palantir’s population management tools are being implemented already and the CBP/ICE enforcers are now 20,000 strong and well armed.
It won’t work, but it is going to be a horrific mess.
If Vance takes over soon it won’t change much due to his lack of political clout, I would simply expect the various factions to become more extreme and out of control.
Vance is also wholly owned and operated by Peter Thiel. The datacenters are coming.
Not if they can’t manufacture those chips needed for those datacenters because of a shortage of helium and sulpher to manufacture those chips with. Those materials can’t get out of the Gulf right now.
It won’t help that, per Ed Zitron, they can’t be operated profitably. Investor subsidies can keep things going only so long.
El Niño may have a thing to say here as well, as well as inadequate grid capacity. Toss in the naphtha shortages. Theres got to be loads of plastic parts used in these things. And lubricants. There are some stiff headwinds here.
To add more difficulties: is it really the case that consumers (not persons or individuals, consumer is the best word here), companies and public institutions, big and small, are all waiting anxiously to be served by those LLMs as all the business plans seem to be discounting, and pay handsomely for whatever crap these produce? This might be a case in which the winner f$c&s it all.
I don’t think the data centers are part of a for profit play, I think the purpose is surveillance and control.
Thank you NWT,
I’ve been waiting for someone to say this out loud.
It seems to me ALL recent tech endeavors are “for profit plays”, especially high tech ones involving data centers. Surveillance and control are just two more “investments” that can be monetized. Which does not guarantee they will be successful.
On the emerging shortages/limited resources I figure we will see an acceleration in the “falling out amongst thieves” department.
I had meant to thank you for that observation in your Musk/Altman piece.
Thanks, I need to follow up on the Musk/Altman fiasco. Both made damning admissions under oath.
The US Electrical grid has not been maintained, let alone upgraded in
many years , an ungodly number of transformers will need to be replaced over the next decade just to stay where we are.
At least the Country where they are made is on good terms with the USA!
Spain.
Oh,wait.
“Theres got to be loads of plastic parts used in these things. And lubricants.”
My guess is the amount of plastics in these data centres is pretty tiny compared to the vast amounts in just about everything else nowadays. Likewise lubricants.
But the S&P at record highs again today! There is no bubble, no trouble, the US economy is doing great! Mr. Market says no problems with shortages. (what about those “rare earths” eh)
The oligarchy is asset stripping the place at record pace, and we plebs are told to worship them, not criticize the neo-aristocracy ordained by God to rule over us
Maybe Trump has selectively provided information to important investors that helps to encourage their animal spirits? If I were Trump, I would do that. I would tell them exactly what I reckoned they wanted to hear. I also suspect that important investors would be grateful to have their bullish sentiment supported.
But I know nothing. I’m content to be an ignorant poor.
I think the derivatives markets are putting relentless upward pressure on the market. What we are witnessing may be a “melt up”
That, though, might make it even worse. There were authoritarian totalitarian thug regimes cracking down on dissent long before computer chips were a thing.
Worse – the current brownshirts are less likely to be literate enough to at least read the paperwork and records. And courts have been pretty clear on their lack of liability for uncivilized behavior.
I’m guessing there will come a day that people with the intention to sabotage those expensive data centers will realize that a lot of damage can be done with rifles poking holes through all those racks of processors. So many seem to be in rows where a stray bullet or a thousand can wreak havoc. just try finding everything a bullet chews through. In one side, out the other…
all from some kid with nothing better to do than shoot at thin walled metal buildings in the desert.. or better yet from the trees in Tennessee. After all data processors are in a much lighter gauge enclosure than the transformers people were shooting up, a while back. These billionaires are the terrorists using his electricity and water…. Thousands of kids…. maybe it will go viral. Just a guess.
I think some elements of the kakostrochy are trying to inspire exactly such violent reactions to justify the massive ICE clampdown the duopoly already budgeted for
These are likely clustered servers so while some bullets may affect redundancy they wouldn’t necessarily halt the running processes.
If it were me, I’d go for the cooling towers (specifically the pumps … break those and it could be a long time to get a replacement.
There was a guy who shut off the Cooling Water to a MSFT server array.
Later known as the “six million dollar man” and banned from many projects.
Never thought about cooling. Power lines, diesel backup generators would have to come on line. Fiber lines, no data in our out. Some pretty low hanging fruit, coordinated across a few locations and the economy is done. Even a simple CloudFlare bug did it recently.
I keep thinking that some enterprising person/group could make flyers pointing out that the data centers are sparsely manned and filled with copper, then distribute them to the more distressed parts of the community and let nature take its course.
Noticed in the Janta Ka video that Sean Hannity was sporting an old glory flag lapel pin perhaps a smidge bigger than Benedict Donald, and can our country afford a flag lapel pin gap at this juncture?
By the way, the first leader of a country to regularly wear a flag lapel pin was Leonid Brezhnev, of unabrow fame among other accomplishments.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_Brezhnev#/media/File:1977_CPA_4774.jpg
Dude should be wearing an Israeli flag lapel pin. The bald-faced, suit-and-tie-wearing clown gets paid a tidy sum to spread BS. If BS from the US gov and media could be used as fertilizer, the US could supply the world and still have a surplus
IMHO, using 5th century BC Greek city-states as an analogy is about as convincing as the Munich Analogy was during the Vietnam War. In the present case, history isn’t just not repeating itself. It’s not even rhyming.
I loathe the term “Thucydides trap” with every fiber of my being, because it has nothing, n-o-t-h-i-n-g, to do with Thucydides or with his history of the Peloponnesian War. It’s a term some twit thought up in 2012 or thereabouts to sell a book, and now everyone is throwing it around to seem smart or some such. It doesn’t even reflect the actual war between Sparta and Athens, who were both established “great powers” in Greece at the time; Thucydides, to the extent one can rely on him as a narrator, paints the conflict as “greed” vs. “fear”, or the acquisition of wealth vs. the acquisition of security in more modern terms. If anything, it’s Sparta vs. Thebes, well after the defeat of Athens, that has any resemblance to the “trap” scenario, however vague…
Good morning, Nat, and thanks for a very fine summary update. I enjoyed reading it very much.
[Yesterday Yves instructed us to be nice.]
Excellent instruction following! And it had the desired effect of making me feel good.
I somehow missed the instructions yesterday and was wondering why the post seemed a bit “off” in regards to tone (not content or quality, just the size and shape…).
Nice to have an answer and I’ll add a “Thank you hugely for a good job as always, Nat!” to the pile!
Thanks!
China: ‘No Point’ In Continuing Iran War
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5879585-china-us-iran-war-end/
‘All of Israel is ours’: Smotrich calls to annex West Bank in Jerusalem Day speech
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-896309
BRICS talks end without joint statement, exposing divisions over war in Iran
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-issues-chair-statement-after-brics-meeting-amid-differences-over-gulf-2026-05-15/
The ICC prosecutor admits that he has not found evidence of genocide in Gaza
https://www.21news.be/le-procureur-de-la-cpi-admet-quil-na-pas-trouve-de-preuves-de-genocide-a-gaza/
UAE Tried in Vain to Get Saudis to Coordinate on Iran Response
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/uae-tried-in-vain-to-get-saudis-to-coordinate-on-iran-response
Russia’s Putin is heading to China next week, days after historic Xi-Trump summit
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3353648/russias-putin-heading-china-next-week-days-after-historic-xi-trump-summit
Iran says Chinese ships passed through Hormuz overnight
https://www.dw.com/en/iran-says-chinese-ships-passed-through-hormuz-overnight/a-77163709
India-bound LPG tankers add to uptick in Hormuz transits
https://gcaptain.com/two-india-bound-lpg-tankers-add-to-uptick-in-hormuz-transits/
Japan wary of US concessions on Taiwan, eyes PM-Trump phone talks
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260514/p2g/00m/0na/049000c
Trump says Xi offered help on Iran as China seeks to keep Hormuz open
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3353610/trump-says-xi-offered-help-iran-china-seeks-keep-hormuz-open
Is Polymarket offering odds that Putin will get a very different welcome than Taco did?
A big hug at the airport, maybe Xi brings balloons saying “we love Russia?” Can we wager on these?
Thanks Ann.
Another one for perusal:
Aftermath: Trump Is Wrecking the U.S. Military
https://prospect.org/2026/05/15/aftermath-trump-wrecking-us-military-iran-war/
I actually think this degradation of the US military started with W’s senseless wars, but there is no doubt that it has vastly accelerated under Trump.
21news is an extreme right outfit financed and partially by Bolloré. The article highly exaggerates the reticence of the ICC prosecutor, who only said that he takes charges very seriously and nearly conceded the point.
Anyone have a hypothesis of what the Strait closure will do to US home prices. On one hand, you have inflation on the Producer/Consumer sides which could drive values higher. The other hand, you have a recession/depression whew job lost and reduced spending causes prices to fall (along with higher interest rates). My guess is the later, but curious on everyone else’s take informed by history or other data points.
A few things are delivered by diesel loving big rigs in this country among other nations, and its 40% higher in cost than it was on February 29th in Cali, so why wouldn’t a number approximating that be baked into the new and improved inflation?
Inflation will drive new home prices/sq ft higher, but only the top 10% will be able to afford to purchase.
Existing home prices are sticky on the downside but may erode somewhat. Any price erosion will be offset by higher carrying costs–higher interest rates and property taxes.
Bottom line: grim prospects for buyers, particularly first time homeowners.
I tend to agree with that. In certain inflated markets, like the SF Bay Area, there are still housing shortages which will keep prices from falling, even with demand destruction, higher rates, high taxes etc.
Going forward, higher material costs, overhead etc. will make any new construction even more expensive.
Essentials necessary for life: food, energy, housing, medical care will be more expensive and those without the means will go without. I expect homeless/houseless populations to rise further and the average life expectancy to continue to decline.
But then again, my speculation is “optimistic” compared to the recent opinions given by Steve Keen, Michael Hudson, Richard Wolff and other critical economists.
Depending on the area, of course. Existing home prices are dropping in this military town in SoCal. And mortgage interest rates are rising.
No one ever has to buy a home, but someone always has to sell a home.
We will see at least a severe recession and quite possibly a World wide great depression worse than 1929
Lots of BK’s for builders, lots of foreclosures for people who bought near the peak.
It takes a few years to play out, but here in Sonoma County I expect the drop to be 50% in inflation adjusted dollars over five or six years.
This assumes that things will more or less hold together in the USA…
I believe that it is going to be a very different World in five years…
I think rates will have to come down one way or another to prop up asset prices. I can’t see the financial capitalist system letting them drop significantly more. Either high oil prices will force a recession and rate cuts or the Trump admin will start pressuring the Fed to lower them again.
I’m in Canada and a lot of home construction has stopped. Immigration was cut as well but is expected to resume sometime in the next year (albeit lower) as per a recent deal with India. I don’t see Canada cutting rates unless the US does for currency defense concerns.
At the same time if you listen to Michael Hudson (assuming I’m interpreting him right) there could be a lot more pain in a deflationary spiral if defaults begin.
markets are regional
sand states much more prone to sudden price crashes than rich metros built on coasts, salt or freshwater.
Worst food/fuel shortages we’ve ever seen imo will lead to demand destruction of all things and cause serious recession. Cure for high prices of many things, not just oil, is high prices. AFAIK recessions always lead to house price declines. In the current situation with pretty low p/e’s a recession might be accelerated by market collapse and investors turn to income rather than promises of growth, and if so house prices might fall in even the priciest regions. Vacation places maybe most vulnerable.
Zeitgeist report from the South: Local wine and liquor store is far less busy than usual. Went in to get a couple bottles of wine and for the first time in ages I was the only one in the store. It’s a small place, so not a whole lot of traffic in and out anyway, but the clerk said business is down suddenly. Guess those gas prices are already having an effect.
As for home prices, the local demand is low anyway where I live, so my guess is that they will drop further as buyers need to dip into that down-payment savings account to survive the inflation. Either that or we will see a revisit of the 2007-8 mess with funny mortgages making a comeback.
Its gonna suck.
“‘Floating armoury’ ship reportedly seized by Iran”
Being so close to the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian suspicion is that this ship would be used to arm up some of the ships caught up in the Gulf so that they could shoot their way out. Such an idea sounds like the Iranians are getting paranoid but with the Trump regime, this might have actually been a scheme thought up by someone like Jack Keane and implemented.
Wouldn’t it be a hoot if it turned out that these weapons were from a batch that were earmarked for the Green t-shirt, and “fell off the truck” in Ukraine? It could be that the Green T-shirt made some good money on that deal; he’s recently been making noises about offering help to the Gulf States.
You might actually be onto something. I recently heard that one third of tube artillery given to the Ukraine has gone missing. How do you hide a piece of artillery? You can’t put it in the boot of your car. You need a truck to even tow the damn thing. Who are the Ukes selling them to?
Plenty of boats could carry them in the cargo holds.
Highest bidder. The Green T-shirt’s lifestyle won’t pay for itself.
All fun and speculation aside, the Iranians might be able to shed some light on the origin of the cache. Something tells me that the serial numbers have been filed off, though.
I have no insight, but if you wanted to monetize stolen equipment in conditions of scarcity without being too obvious, perhaps you could dismantle it and sell the parts as OEM replacements.
After the perfidy of Feb 28 I don’t think it would be possible for the Iranians to be paranoid vis-a-vis the Trump regime.
My emphasis:
First the Saudis were scared of them, then Israel, then the US, now the Financial Times.
Looks like that Houthis are punching way beyond their weight!
If things hot up again my guess is that U.A.E. will be seriously damaged, and maybe saudis won’t mind that so much.
I’m certainly not a China expert, but given all the time and inches this China trip got on the national news here, it sure looks like this trip was a big nothing. Sometimes I wish the Chinese diplomatic style was not so subtle.
Here’s the take from someone more qualified:
Lawrence Wilkerson: Trump-Xi Meeting After U.S. Defeat in Iran
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HO-Z7dmhHPM
Did Benedict Donald really have to go to China in order to blame things on Joe Biden, couldn’t he have just posted it on Truth Social @ 3:10 am in the White House?
Photo Ops?
came across this:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uboO2yfu8pA
and got sucked immediately(and i aint really a video guy).
dont know who any of these people are, but its worth your time.
I’ve never seen the interviewer before but the guests: Ryan Dawson is perma-linked on Larry Johnson’s website and the professor, Setareh Sadeqi, has been on Rachel Blevins three or four times in the last couple of months.
Inside the Secret Mission to Fly Taiwan’s President to Africa
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/asia/taiwan-eswatini-china-flight.html
First Palestinian ICC filing against Hamas alleges war crimes, seeks arrests – exclusive
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-896327
ICC Denies ‘Genocide’ Accusations Against Israel
https://www.algemeiner.com/2026/05/08/icc-prosecutor-karim-khan-sidesteps-genocide-accusations-against-israel/
Trump weighs Taiwan arms package after summit aimed at steadying US-China ties
https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-taiwan-iran-trade-e7a3cdf161c608de152ac1c6e5755452
‘A $1,700,000,000 Fraud on the American Taxpayer’: Trump to Drop IRS Suit in Exchange for MAGA Slush Fund
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-irs-lawsuit-slush-fund
Donald Trump traded hundreds of millions of dollars in US securities in first quarter
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/f5896500-cab6-457f-9558-11ef8b3cd362
Pete Hegseth can’t explain why America needs a $1.5 trillion military budget
https://reason.com/2026/05/14/pete-hegseth-cant-explain-why-america-needs-a-1-5-trillion-military-budget/
The greatest heist in American history? This Trump shakedown is flying under the radar.
https://www.ms.now/all-in/trump-irs-lawsuit-greatest-heist-in-american-history-corruption
US man convicted of running secret Chinese ‘police station’ in NYC
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy72yy7z1dyo
The Christian right hijacks America’s 250th: Trump’s Rededicate 250 event erases the U.S.’s secular history
https://www.salon.com/2026/05/15/the-christian-right-hijacks-americas-250th/
At 17, He Was Tear-Gassed at Selma. At 78, He’s Watching Kids Tear-Gassed During Trump’s Deportation Campaign.
https://www.propublica.org/article/charles-mauldin-selma-tear-gas
FBI offers $200,000 for information on former Air Force intelligence specialist charged with spying for Iran
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/politics/fbi-reward-iran-spying
Trump demands a ballroom like China in Truth Social tirade from Air Force One after lavish reception in Beijing
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-ballroom-china-truth-social-b2977288.html
‘Point of no return’: 36 countries join special tribunal to prosecute Vladimir Putin
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/05/15/point-of-no-return-36-countries-join-special-tribunal-to-prosecute-vladimir-putin
You’re Getting Robbed. By Trump. In Broad Daylight.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/youre-getting-robbed-by-trump-in-broad-daylight-irs-tax-returns-lawsuit-settlement-slush-fund-january-6-china-summit
Americans overwhelmingly believe the cost of living, from groceries to housing, was lower under Biden
https://www.ms.now/news/americans-overwhelmingly-believe-the-cost-of-living-from-groceries-to-housing-was-lower-under-biden
The U.S. is turning into Uganda with nukes.
Point of no return’: 36 countries join special tribunal to prosecute Vladimir Putin
Don’t these people have better things to do than make utter fools of themselves?
The last I checked Putin had a 2 million man army, an ~80% approval rate, and most Russians are getting really, really annoyed with the rest of Europe. Oh, and the Duma has jut passed legislation allowing military force to protect Russian citizens outside of the RF
Who is going to bell the cat?
Nearly 50,000 Lake Tahoe residents have one year to find new power as their utility pivots to data centers
https://www.techspot.com/news/112403-nearly-50000-lake-tahoe-residents-have-one-year.html
Exclusive: Hackers have breached tank readers at US gas stations; officials suspect Iran is responsible
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/15/politics/iran-hackers-tank-readers-gas-stations
Powerful GOP Congressman Dismisses Rising Gas Prices from Iran War: ‘That’s Life’
https://people.com/gop-congressman-dismisses-rising-gas-prices-from-iran-war-thats-life-11975782
Americans: We’re Broke. Donald Trump: No, You’re Not.
https://jacobin.com/2026/05/trump-gop-economy-financial-stress
Trump warns Taiwan against declaring independence, hours after summit with China’s Xi
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8p61v7l68o
Trump says he is losing patience with Iran, did not ask China for favors
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-he-chinas-xi-agree-iran-cannot-have-nuclear-weapons-2026-05-15/
Turkey renames Central Asia as Turkestan in new school curriculum
https://m.akipress.com/news:895888:Turkey_renames_Central_Asia_as_Turkestan_in_new_school_curriculum/
Israel and Lebanon agree to extend ceasefire by 45 days, US State Dept says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-lebanon-agree-extend-ceasefire-by-45-days-us-state-dept-says-2026-05-15/
US and Iran appear to postpone uranium talks – Bloomberg
https://unn.ua/en/news/us-and-iran-appear-to-postpone-uranium-talks-bloomberg
Iran Announces Strait Of Hormuz Is Open To All Ships If They Cooperate With Its Navy
https://www.marineinsight.com/iran-announces-strait-of-hormuz-is-open-to-all-ships-if-they-cooperate-with-its-navy-2/
Modi in UAE: $5 billion investment; India’s oil reserves gets 30M barrels boost, LPG pact signed
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/modi-in-uae-5-billion-investment-indias-oil-reserves-gets-30m-barrels-boost-lpg-pact-signed/videoshow/131122336.cms
Israel announces: We attempted to eliminate Izz al-Din Haddad, Hamas’s number 1 in Gaza
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/z08c2f8i6
Iraqi national charged with coordinating terror attacks that aimed to stop Iran war
https://abcnews.com/US/iraqi-national-charged-coordinating-terror-attacks-aimed-stop/story
‘Rogue state behaviour’: Israel carrying out covert influence operations in Canada, report says
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/rogue-state-behaviour-israel-carrying-out-covert-influence-operations-canada-report-says
Ann, Thanks for the links!
You’re very welcome, debug.