Yves here. This sighting from Andrew Korybko describes one of the many ways Russia is securing its position, politically as well as militarily, in the event that NATO or the EU reconfigured on martial lines manages to get out of its underwear and pose a real threat. Russia remembers all too well how a seemingly prostrated Germany managed to rise again after World War I.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
Representatives from the Presidential Administration, Ministry of Defense, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs have recently addressed these threats, which risk spiraling into a three-front proxy war against Russia in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia if they aren’t preemptively thwarted.
Last August’s announcement of the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) caught Russia completely by surprise. Prior to this megaproject’s unveiling, Russia assumed that Armenia and Azerbaijan would abide by the last point of the Moscow-mediated November 2020 ceasefire for opening a regional connectivity corridor that would be protected by the FSB. Instead, they replaced Russia’s role with the US, and this route now has the dual function of a NATO military logistics corridor to Central Asia.
The UK swiftly lifted its arms embargo on Armenia and Azerbaijan prior to separately strengthening military ties with the latter. In between these two moves, Azerbaijan announced that its armed forces completed their years-long effort to conform to NATO standards. Kazakhstan also clinched a critical minerals deal with the US before announcing that it’ll begin producing NATO-standard shells. Vance then visited Armenia and Azerbaijan in February. All of this amounts to NATO’s encirclement of Russia.
It wasn’t till recently that Russia overcame this military-strategic shock. Prior to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s trip to Moscow in early April, which was assessed here as the moment of truth in their ties, the Russian Triad – the Presidential Administration, the Ministry of Defense, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia’s three premier policymaking institutions – was silent. After that fateful meeting, however, their representatives finally started warning about southern-emanating threats from NATO.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk told TASS right afterwards that TRIPP “upset the regional balance that had existed since 1828”. By late April, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov informed the SCO that “We are closely monitoring the attempts of extra-regional states to ensure military presence and logistical missions in Central Asia.” By then, Azerbaijan had just entered into a de facto military alliance with Ukraine, which complements its close military ties with the US, Turkiye, and the UK.
Just this week, the final part of the Russian Triad chimed in on this subject after Director of the Third CIS Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexander Sternik told TASS that “[EU countries] make no secret of their intention to inflict a ‘strategic defeat’ on Russia in the West and are working with our partners [in Central Asia] toward roughly the same, slightly veiled, goals. They do this using vague terms such as ‘economic diversification’ and ‘protection against external threats.’”
Left unsaid but self-evident to all honest officials observing NATO’s TRIPP-driven encirclement of Russia is that Turkiye’s “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS), which is consolidating as a united military–security bloc, threatens to replace the CSTO for joint members Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The purpose is to “poach” those two like NATO and the EU are respectively in the process of “poaching” Armenia from the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union. That would be catastrophic for Russian security if it happens.
Azerbaijan’s location imbues it with an irreplaceable role in NATO’s TRIPP-driven and OTS-fronted encirclement of Russia. If this process isn’t soon halted and instead uncontrollably accelerates, then shadow NATO member Azerbaijan and nearby Kazakhstan, which the bloc wants to follow in its footsteps, could coordinate a three-front proxy war on Russia with Ukraine. The Russian Triad is finally aware of these threats, so the Kremlin might soon try to preemptively thwart them, but it’s unclear how.
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NATO and the EU are turning an imagined Russian threat into a reality by repeatedly invoking self-fulfilling prophecies.
Nato needs justification for massive increases in defense spending, and eventually, somewhere to discharge all those weapons, so more purchases can be justified – if nato works anything like the u.s. MIC, which I suspect it does. Of course proxy wars are far preferable to fighting a war in ones own country which can be unpopular with voters.
Frankly I would welcome a weighed counterview by other informed people.
I somehow doubt any genuine shock within Russia to anything going on in that area. Is it possible Korybko underestimates the depth of Russian expertise and personnel in foreign affairs. After all this is not Central America or South Korea (and this may be too a wrong example).
I faintly remember that Azerbaijan understood late last year that Russia has some red lines and they won´t allow stepping over those. Gutting Azerbaijani “mafia” and their sources of revenue in Moscow was one such demonstration. Attacking their domestic oil infrastructure another.
It even seemed as if Aliyev was consciously testing the limits fully aware like a decent gambler of the rules of the game.
Considering that Korybko suggested recently that Karaganov had Putin´s ear on the WMD issue eventually, I am always reading with a grain of salt. To quote from Korybko´s headline from May 8th:
“Kremlin is contemplating, under the newfound influence of hardliners like Sergey Karaganov whose sway over Putin“.
Where are the proportions here?
Setting Korybko aside, the issue is that the Russian government a) is not a monolithic and uniform structure, and b) is not the sole key stakeholder in the Russian state.
In other words, yes, at different government levels, and with different key stakeholders (e.g. the military and intelligence bodies), there has been a recognition for quite some time that after Ukraine – the Caucasus or Central Asia, or both. The latter especially important since it is also a vital region to China.
But, other levels of government are “stuck in the past” on this – presumably the same ones that Lavrov had publically criticized last year as “still hoping” for going back to pre-war relations with the US – and at least some of the economic and financial key stakeholders (separating the oligarchs, who run businesses, and the finance guys, who run banks and play the market ponies) would very much like to not rock the boat due to their ongoing economic and financial relationships with the Caucasus and Central Asia. I mean, someone has got to be making a lot of money from all the new sanctions-circumventing trade through Armenia and the like.
You can sort of get a sense of this internal battle of views through the press (and the blogosphere, but let’s stick to the press) – you’ve got the business-affiliated papers like “The Kommersant” in one corner, and the esteemed foreign policy journals or the MoD-friendly “Komsomol’skaya Pravda” in the other corner, for instance. Meanwhile, in the middle of all this sits Putin, who presumably styles himself as a sort of an arbiter between the various camps, which is why everything. Moves. So. Bloody. Slowly. On. Every. Issue.
Parenthetically, at least some commentators on Solov’ev’s media channel insist that still, today, there are some individuals in government (never named, however), who want the Ukrainian war to “just be over” so that “we could go back to business as usual”. Solov’ev is very friendly with the MoD (and a good portion of his hosts and guests are ex-military), and typically takes the more hawkish view of things, so, naturally, spends a lot of time attacking this very idea of a “rapprochement”.
My point is that what Korybko seems to be pointing to is that finally, there has been a formal statement that Houston, we have a problem, and something needs to be done about it. The key player here is the Presidential Administration, because I’m pretty sure the military and foreign policy guys were already there for a while. This is a signal that Putin has finally “arbitrated” in favor of the hawks, if you will, at least for the time being. Which still means the Russian response, whatever it will be, will be too late 50% of the time, but at least now it’s 50%, not 100%. [To wit – Ukraine, where in 2014 it was triage after the fact, with Crimea and so on, rather than preventive action beforehand to avert the February coup or the conditions that had enabled it. This is not often discussed in government-adjacent media, though Putin himself has expressed regrets in a couple of his speeches.]
Excellent comment. Complements the article nicely.
Question on a different topic: what do you make of the Rusia-Israel relationship? What is driving the Russian strategic patience (I don’t know what to call it, really) with Israel. It is quite puzzling to me and I don’t have a remotely satisfying answer to it.
There was an article by Korybko on the subject in case you missed it.
e.g.:
Putin’s Misleading Factoids on Russia-Israel Ties
May 11th
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/05/putins-misleading-factoids-on-russia-israel-ties.html
Thanks.
Keep in mind the Russian Armed Forces 2014 were by no means the Russian Armed Forces of 2026.
With that “power projection” and real means to intervene are – I dare speculate – on a different level today than they used to be.
So the game itself has changed and verdicts of today based on past may not be entirely substantiated by the change in material realities since.
I at least have the impression Korybko and other Western oriented analysts still judge Russia by her potential from 10 years ago.
“…but it’s unclear how.”
Maybe they’d like to hire Explosive Media, which seems to have had the desired effect of increasing sympathy for Iran’s position. Perhaps a media campaign emphasizing how countries who align with the Uncle Sugar so often get turned to rubble as thanks for their assistance. That and some diplomacy, while continuing to hold a big stick.
On the diplomatic front, perhaps some summits in partnership with China, to remind these would-be Western allies which very large countries with ample resources are actually much closer to their smaller, vulnerable selves. Maybe show a few pics of the abject poverty and despair one can find in just about any medium to large city in the US these days. When it’s a clear choice between hitching one’s wagon to a blind and hobbled old nag headed for the glue factory or an up and coming young philly about to make the big time, that might help even the most corrupt Asian leaders get their minds right.
Russia can do nothing, not even military escalation after their strategic defeat in Ukraine.
Putin has recently stated he’s winding down the war in Ukraine with none of the core objectives – demilitarization, denazification, neutrality – achieved. He hasn’t even took territorial control of all the Oblasts inducted into the Russian Federation. 🤦♀️
Huh?
What strategic defeat? The SMO, for the most part, has gone the way the Russians have wanted. The biggest issue for Putin now is the strikes within Russia that the Ukraine has been able to pull off over the past several months.
And with regards to Putin “winding down the war” I’ve seen nothing to support such statements. His recent speeches have, if nothing, been quite the opposite. I welcome any evidence that I’ve completely misunderstood the meaning of his recent statements.
If $400 Billion in US funding grafted into the personal accounts of Ukraine’s “leaders” who built and destroyed a NATO-styled military three times is a strategic defeat for Putin, then the upcoming demise of the rump Ukraine will be a complete surprise.
Yes, he’ll wind it down when The West runs out of munitions and declares victory in the Red Sea, and then retire to Sochi to enjoy the quiet of defeat.
Before or after Russia tanks arrive in Paris?
Sorry, I sometimes get confused between the “Russia is coming hide the children” and “Russian soldiers don’t have boots” Western narratives.
Is there a possibility of a Mossad-Modi connection? The elections use electronic ballot machines. No one knows who owns the source code. One cannot ask or question or ever try to test the machines independently without being charged for treason by the state. There is no supporting paper ballot. After the Hindenburg report on Adani, there were reports of Mossad led investigations on anti Adani agents behind the report. India has a leader and oligargh pair who have handed the country back to the imperialists. There were robust anti imperialist protests until Modi came to power and began throwing people into jail. Is the middle class love of imperialism some kind of Stockholm syndrome?
As the Ukraine war ends, I would imagine have the largest, battle hardened army in the world with the best technology, while the US arsenal is depleted will encourage the soft underbelly to figure out the smart (and stupid) choice. And Iran can always erase the US / NATO bases for Russia as a favor.
I do not think Korybko will be able to philosophically process the defeat and its implications in the US Iran war – his bias are super apparent.
I largely agree with you, but Ukraine is metastasizing to Nigeria, the Sahel, Armenia and Azerbaijan. While The West can’t wage conventional war, so long as our industrial infrastructure is functional we can supply terrorist organizations up to and including the Zionist one wherever The Blob sees fit.
Part of me wants Xi to lay all this out for Trump and finish it by telling him China is cutting all trade with The West in favor of a Marshall Plan for the ROW whom we’ve recently kneecapped in the Red Sea. That and Oreshniks to all the EU drone manufactureres.
After explaining all this, the other part of me wants Xi to offer Trump a Nobel Peace Prize for ending the Israel, Iran, and Ukraine conflicts unilaterally, which Trump is uniquely positioned to do when Iran offers him the Leggo Video team to manage the Epstien problem.
And the Persian Gulf (I honestly wonder how many Ukrainian “drone and air defense specialists” are actually there, though…)
How this goes depends, I think on how you interpret recent Russian overtures to Ukraine about conditions for a ceasefire. Is this, as Ben Hodges suggests, a sign of Russian exhaustion? More likely to me, it’s Russia giving Ukraine a way out before dropping the hammer in the Summer.
Also, how the issue of Ukraine drones being produced in and overflying Nato countries is resolved. Should Russia, say, launch massive missile strikes in Germany and France, some of these other countries might rethink their strategic options.
depends. the yippy dogs in the baltics are in severe overreach,imo.
high on own supply, etc.
but who is there to back them up?
rest of EU?
lol. looks like they’ll all be doin good to keep the lights on and the current people in their seats.
and with what army/navy/air force/weapons/money?
perhaps Turkeye can be persueded to step up?
lol.
as for Uncle Sugar…well, that wad appears to be shot…and but good.
with what weapons/army/etc?
it may be mere inertia for Putin, et alia, to tiptoe right up to Nato lines, and back down.
and while im thinking about what usa could do if russia slapped down a yippie dog or two…what is the current operational status of the usa nuke stockpile? isnt all that crap like 60 years old?
i remember peace prize obama yammering in a corner about updating all that hellfire weaponry, but dont remember if anything came of it.
i havent the bandwidth to chase down any of this, of course…i am rather overwhelmed with farm stuff, since at least january.
A billion here, a trillion there…
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/us-modernization-2024-update
while ther appears to be some capability still remaining, per that link…ie:im certain we could frell up the world real bad…theres too many wishcasting hopium type assertions.
as if we can just order up some new nukes.
with the chinese rare earth blockade, and other outsourcing issues that are becoming existential, i wonder just how capable usa is, after all.
i should prolly ask a russian or a chinese person,lol.
reading that, still looks like a bunch of ancient tech with multiple patches.
does it run on cobalt software, too?
ive had a few B52 overflights, out here…and , as ive said, that sound is the footsteps of Doom…but those things are all older than i am.
i reckon that, rather, we are waving branches and beating our chest, like any aging silverback…then we’ll wander off and die, suddenly.
To be fair to the US, we’ve been busy making billionaires. Around 300 in 2000, nearly 1000 in 2026.
Nobody is looking at the map? The border of Azerbaidjan with Russia is quite small and easily defended. As for Kazakhstan, they are pretty well isolated in Central Asia. There is a Sea controlled by a convention between Kazakhstan and Azerbaidjan. If Kazakhstan wants to export oil and gas will have to play nice with Russia and Teheran. And behind it looks China.
Haven’t drone attacks on Russian refineries been launched from both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan? That’s all the Empire needs, is a compliant regime looking the other way while infiltrators use those border areas to launch terrorist or other asymmetric type attacks. The Empire is not going to launch a frontal attack on the most powerful military in the world, they’re going to try for the thousand cuts approach instead. Russia needs to drop the hammer on somebody just to show, as Radiohead sang, “This is what you get…when you mess with us.” (Hence my previous suggestion of “Seven Oreshniks to Demilitarize and Denazify the UK”, a country that no one else in the EU would mourn in the slightest, but that would make a fine example.)
Some sleuths argue that the Caspian was the place of launching, and ultimately that can be rectified.
What is with all these states lining up to be cannon fodder for the USSA?? I don’t get it. Neutrality is the way with no foreign military bases on your soil. The bribes must be huge. Haven’t they seen what the USSA + NATOSTAN have done to Ukraine?
Slow learners my species. Very slow.
It’s all those Yankee fiat dollars, delivered on pallets stacked with hundred dollar bills (like in Iraq) or just deposited electronically in your Swiss bank account (like in Ukraine). The good of the state and the people is irrelevant, it’s the pecuniary benefit to the ruling class traitors and their senior bureaucrats that drives these insane policies. They can always abscond to Florida or Monaco or New Zealand if things get too nasty.