Yves here. Andrew Korybko takes a contrarian position. While the aim of Trump’s policies are clearly to cut back Russia’s influence, objectives and successes are two different matters. As John Mearsheimer has described long-form. Trump is doing an marvelous job of diminishing US power by alienating and even attacking one-time allies ex Israel (witness stripping South Korea of THAAD interceptors to bolster Middle Eastern operations, or the new threat to Germany to reduce US deployments there). And unlike the Reagan era, where Sino-Soviet relations were rocky, Russia and China in February 2022 jointly declared that their friendship had no limits. They seem to be living up to that commitment.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
Absent a deal with Trump, which Putin could be further induced to agree to if Trump promises to reduce US pressure on some – but not all – of these countries, Russia might lose all 15 of these partners (and possibly even more) with time.
It was assessed shortly after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture that “The ‘Trump Doctrine’ Is Shaped By Elbridge Colby’s ‘Strategy Of Denial’”, which argues that the US now prioritizes denying China the resources required for maintaining its economic growth. The aim is to derail China’s superpower trajectory and thus make Xi more likely to accept a lopsided trade deal with the US for institutionalizing China’s junior status. The Third Gulf War advances this goal as explained here and here.
As applied towards Russia, however, the Trump Doctrine more closely resembles the Reagan Doctrine. The Strategy of Denial is much less relevant towards Russia than towards China due to Russia’s natural resource wealth enabling it to develop autarkically (but at the cost of falling behind in the tech race). That said, Maduro’s capture and the Third Gulf War affected both China and Russia, albeit differently; China was denied resources, while a Russian partner was removed from power and another weakened.
This observation of those two outcomes segues into the essence of the Trump Doctrine’s Reagan-esque application towards Russia. It’s all about “rolling back” Russian influence across the world for the purpose of pressuring Putin into accepting a lopsided deal in Ukraine that would institutionalize Russia’s junior status. Trump called for freezing the conflict last spring, which Putin rejected since that scenario doesn’t address the root security issues, ergo why it continues to this day with no deal in sight.
Russia and the US each still dangle the promise of a mutually beneficial resource-centric strategic partnership, which was touched upon here and here, as a reward for compromising on their position that the other considers to be unacceptable. These concern Russia’s refusal to freeze the conflict without addressing the root security issues and the US’ refusal to address them as well as its refusal to coerce Ukraine and NATO into doing the same. Neither has agreed to compromise in spite of this reward.
The resultant dilemma led to the Trump Doctrine’s transformation. Putin placed Trump in a zugzwang whereby he could either retain the conflict’s tempo at the risk of another “forever war” or “escalate to de-escalate” at the risk of World War III. Trump creatively extricated himself from this trap by replicating Reagan’s “rollback” policy in modern conditions. By the time he “rolled back” Russia’s influence in Venezuela and Iran, he already made major moves in Armenia-Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and even Belarus.
The first made peace in DC and agreed to a US-controlled trade corridor that’ll function as a dual military logistics route for injecting Western, including NATO, influence along Russia’s entire southern periphery. This emboldened the second to agree to a critical minerals deal and announce its planned production of NATO-standard shells. As for the third, its talks with the US are aimed at encouraging its defection from Russia, which would greatly complicate the special operation’s hypothetically indefinite continuance.
These six countries – Venezuela, Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Belarus – aren’t the only ones where the US is “rolling back” Russian influence since Serbia, Cuba, Syria, Libya, and the Sahelian Alliance (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) are being targeted too. Myanmar and Nicaragua might be next. Absent a deal with Trump, which Putin could be further induced to agree to if Trump promises to reduce US pressure on some – but not all – of these countries, Russia might lose all these partners with time.
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‘Absent a deal with Trump, which Putin could be further induced to agree to if Trump promises to reduce US pressure on some – but not all – of these countries’
And that is where it all falls apart. Not only is the US incapable of holding to any agreements, Trump in particular has proven himself to be extremely treacherous to the extent of trying to assassinate Putin himself. How spectacularly stupid was that? Even if you could get Trump to agree, the deep state, epitomized by Lindsey Graham, would work behind the scenes to wreck any agreements. It’s all a lost cause I am afraid.
So Russia will have to take their own measures. In Mali, 12,000 militants backed by Ukrainian & European mercs/instructors launched an attack but suffered 20% casualties with the help of the Russians. In the Caucus, it would not surprise me if Russia took a leaf out of the US playbook and stood up “terrorist” groups to launch attacks in this region. It is all a matter of playing the long game and ramping up pressure on the US in the long time. The US may have 800 bases around the world but Iran as proved that they are also places that can be attacked with relative ease.
I had to check the date. No, it is the First of May, not the First of April.
The US doesn’t make agreements. It buys people off and threatens them. How about a little color revolution? It’s all a protection racket. Play ball with us and no one gets hurt. Putin still doesn’t get what gangsters we are.
What is going on in Belarus is part of the Anchorage agreement, the only real problem there is Kazakhstan, they are the only real vulnerability. Russia would have to act there, the rest don’t count.
Will be interesting to see if the recent rise in tempo in Ukraine operations continues scaling up.
Kazakhstan is economically totally dependent on Russia. Now even more so, with the access to Indian Ocean blocked by the Ramadan War and the Afghan-Pakistan tension.
It seems that one out of four citizens is an ethnic Russian (after the influx in 2022). There was a big effort of Kazakhization in the 1990’s, but Russia has remained as the second language, albeit unofficial.
And the only real alternative to Russia is China, which won’t change the situation that much for Russia.
Applying strategies from days long gone isn’t going to work.
Back then the world was less complex, had fewer dependencies and less connections.
Back then the US had the highest industrial production.
Back then the US hadn’t ruined the relations to the allies.
Back then the US had more credibility.
The problem I see with this power strategy is that there’s no guarantee that Venezuela will act any differently when the end of Trumps presidency comes around.
Is President Vance or President Newsom et al going to enforce the Trump doctrine in three years time? Likely not, given how the midterms are probably going to be bad for republicans. All these foreign policy adventures are fairly unpopular.
The main weakness that I see with Mr. Korybko’s thesis is the accelerating decline of America’s capabilities. This is not even the America of the Afghan War, much less the Iraq War. America has yet to fully grasp its weakening strength.
America will have to be forcefully confronted with its emerging lowered world power status. Losing a war against a so called Second Tier Power might just do the trick.
Until then, prepare for “Stormy Weather.”
Stay safe. Prepare.
Right. Korybko likes to spin provocative theses that sometimes seem like castles in air. If you look at current facts on the ground as opposed to theories the US and Israel don’t at all seem to be “winning.” The Trumpies are boobs, not geopolitical Einsteins.
They are, however, geopolitical Epsteins.
The other side of this coin, as for example Richard Medhurst has talked about at length, is the retrenchment of peripheral states’ dependencies on USA – eg the smaller SEA countries who previously received most of their energy via the SoH and now are desperately cutting deals with creepy Uncle Sam. It’s a contrary position insofar as what’s loosely called alternative media tends to be pro Russia/China/Not-The-West (understandably) and this colors the collective analytical frame, but I don’t think the work smarter not harder thesis (wherein the USA might have less overall military dominance, for example, but is using it to manipulate resource realities in a way that’s more effective for realist objectives than previous actual ground wars) can be so easily rejected.
At the same time the general alt-media frame and the Medhurst/Berletic/Korybko? etc theses can be synthesized without contradiction. Retrenching dependencies in the moment is done at the cost of trust and international legitimacy, and to the extent victimized and threatened countries are planning past the short term, you have to imagine they’re considering treating with the Not-West in ways that would’ve previously been unthinkable. As a deeply anecdata example, I know some Japanese speakers (not subject matter experts, but locals/expats/people who spend too much time on forums) who’re actually convinced Japan is no more than a generation from a serious rejection of American vassalage and diplomatic rapprochement with China – even at a moment when during the Takaichi administration those relations seem to be worsening. Now, personally I find this unbelievable, and I think Japan is sunk-cost’d into submission to the USA for the foreseeable future but I’m also not reading Japanese forums, so who knows. I would’ve thought what’s happened in the gulf was impossible before February 28.
From my long study of Japan, the Japanese will, at a heartbeat, dump the US (and offer elephant tears and tut-tuts as it disunites into warring statelets). To imagine that Japan “forgets” the US for using nuclear weapons on civilians or killing 100,000 in a night by firebombing Tokyo and a thousand other insults is to know nothing about Japan, or Asia, and the importance of face and history. Only in the United States of Amnesia is yesterday forgotten and balances expected to go away in bankruptcy court (for the wealthy – the poor get debtor’s prison).
I agree of course that it is unfathomable that Japan should’ve forgotten the many atrocities visited upon it by the Great Satan (dai maou? akuma?) within, if just barely, living memory. The part I myself find unbelievable is rapprochement with China and, the geopolitical system being what it is, this more or less necessitates political alignment with the US going forward. That being the case I suppose it’s dealer’s choice as to whether this alignment is because of similar historical enmities between Japan and China, sunk cost in the Japanese political class as I allude to above, or just sheer pragmatism as the US may be better equipped to choke Japan of its resource lifelines – perhaps an acidic cocktail of all three, although if the third is the greater part of the drink that is much more contingent on real kinetic capacity.
The US and prior UK Empire have ALWAYS been active in stirring up troubles in these regions and others besides. Now, it is more costly on diminishing superiority. The beat goes on.
Col McGregor may beg to differ, citing Russia’s diplomatic coup in Iran-Saudi relationship advances.
https://youtu.be/WJF_ozNN7pQ?si=BiRPieabhGK8Izlt
The premise of this analysis is a bit tupsy turvy and is denying any agency for the involved countries. None of these countries necessarily sought an “alliance” with Russia, and with the exception of Belarus, Russia hasn’t really pushed for much. What US and Trump are doing is the good old denial of sovereignity making anyone on the face of the earth a vassal to its plutocratic interests.
It is the similar stick as done in the 50s, and 60s, and 70s, with any country gaining independence attacked or subverted on the scare of “communism” when those polities just wanted a deeper independence, away from the clutches of the western capital and its debt bondages.
Also, I don’t see any evidence of Iran being rolled back, or that Venezuela truly capitulated, or that Kazakhstan is truly in the pocket of the US, with both Russia and China breathing heavily from west, north and east… Also Belarus…
Agree with the commentators above that there is not much evidence of successful rollingback and in fact I go with those commentators that this reckless war of choice on Iran has done great damage to US interests, militarily, alliance wise, forcing countries to join against the US, prestige etc, and has starkly exposed the limits of the US military and what Colonel Douglas McGregor calls its legacy or WWII military paradigm in the 21st century (which btw applies to all western countries, Japan and S. Korea). Nevertheless, it’s not at all a simple story and Korybko’s article is worthwhile simply for reminding us of the global game being played.
For a fantastic takedown of the Trump regime’s utter incompetence and arrogant recklessness, I think there is none other better than this Nima interview of a clearly angry and deeply sarcastic Lt Col Anthony Aguilar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoMzkVMD3Tw
It is a heck of thing to watch as one guy who segued from a sleazy used car level RE developer [lmmao at all the laws he broke]/TV reality show personality to a candidate for preznit, previously being a liberal democrat who seamlessly transitioned to the GOP. Better yet exposed the raw white[tm] underbelly of the GOP which has been endlessly groomed for generations and multivariate in its construct. Morally superior to all others, go all Rome on Christianity = $$$$$ = is a captains pick from above, totalitarian authority is fine when its their mob delivering it, best for last, should rule the world …..
Mean time most people on the orb can clearly see or now reevaluating, regardless of decades of propaganda, how the U.S. rolls + most of the West. Just in my network here in Oz there is a huge shift occurring, regardless of the MSM suggestion that its the ME people being bad bad bad ….