[As happens too often, today’s Iran war update launched before complete. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
That halt of hostilities did not last long.1 I expected Israel to defy Trump and again strike Lebanon, but did not expect it to happen this fast, as within the same news cycle in which Trump claimed he told Israel that it was on its own if it hit Lebanon again and incredibly tried denying that Netanyahu had defied him in launching the last round of attacks.
As we will unpack soon, this predictable raised middle finger to Trump hopelessly sinks what little prospect there was of a “deal” even though too many people will keep carrying that corpse around.2 Iran needs to have some evidence that the US can constrain Israel. That is simply na ga happen.
As we will also discuss, the considerable discussion of the idea that the Russia and/or China might midwife a new security architecture for the region is way behind the pace of events. The US was able to impose its post World-War II order due to being the dominant industrial power and once-powerful European powers being prostrated (or in the case of the UK, severely depleted) by the war. Iran with its allies, most notably the Houthis, will be able to impose a new order in the region via having sufficient control over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. If they can continue to deny transit to petroleum and gas exporting Gulf nations, it will be able to force them to adopt at least Austria-style neutrality as a condition of passage. That among other things means no US bases.
That is why the US is still trying to impose its blockade and engaging in dust-ups with Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. It is demonstrating that Iran does not sufficiently control the area of the Strait of Hormuz to assure safe passage to the Gulf states that Iran ultimately needs to peel away them from the US. But of course, neither does the US.
The wee problem is that the US has means to continue this standoff after the point when the global economy starts to come apart in a big way. So will Mr. Market or domestic forces get Trump to blink before there is severe and lasting damage?
First to the kinetic updates. From Aljazeera’s live feed, which as of 5:15 PM EDT carries the headline Iran war live: Israel bombs Lebanon after Trump warns Netanyahu to stop:
- US President Donald Trump says he’s in the “final throes” of a peace deal with Iran after a dangerous escalation with Israel and suggests an agreement will be done in days.
- Israeli forces kill eight people in Tyre city after issuing forced displacement orders as it continues deadly attacks on southern Lebanon ignoring Trump’s warning to halt strikes.
Israel officials had already said that attacks would resume soon:
⚡️ Channel 14 Hebrew:
A senior official in the Israeli security system estimates tonight that a return to a violent and intense round of fighting with Iran is a matter of a short time, and may occur within the next few days.
– Maintaining a state of alert and maximum readiness…— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) June 8, 2026
Keep in mind that CNN just reported 37 – that’s how many times Trump has claimed to be close to Iran deal.
Germane entries in the Aljazeera live feed:
- Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, said negotiations between Washington and Tehran have “nothing to do with Lebanon”, accusing Iran of trying to connect the two issues. Speaking to Fox News, Leiter said Israeli operations against Hezbollah are separate from the US-Iran talks and warned that “Lebanon will not have a future if it remains linked to Iran”.
- Analysts say Israel’s decision to launch new strikes on Iran despite Trump’s calls for restraint was intended to signal to the US that no lasting agreement with Tehran can ignore Israeli interests. Military historian Danny Orbach said the strikes were a message to Washington that Israel retains the ability to disrupt negotiations if it believes its security concerns are being overlooked.
Clearly, Iran does not see it that way. As of when this post first went live, there is no report of Iran retaliation but it seems awfully likely. As the The Cradle recapped on Twitter:
Iran says it will no longer wait for threats, declaring new strategic regional defense doctrine
——
Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council chairman Sadeq Larijani said Tehran’s intervention in support of Lebanon constitutes a formal declaration of a new strategic doctrine, under which attacks on any component of the Restance Axis will trigger a response that extends beyond geographical boundaries and reshapes regional equations.Larijani said Iran has entered a new phase in which it no longer waits for threats to emerge before acting to preserve its regional position, but instead takes the initiative. He also warned that any expansion of the conflict or attack on critical Iranian infrastructure would be met with a comprehensive and deterrent response.
PressTV also warns: Leader’s adviser: Iran will shatter US naval blockade on Hormuz if talks fail. From the story:
Mohsen Rezaei, advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, says Iran remains committed to diplomacy but will not hesitate to decisively break the US naval blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz if negotiations fail.
“At the moment, we are pursuing our goals through negotiations. However, since a naval blockade constitutes a violation of our rights, we do not accept this situation and will definitely break any naval blockade,” Rezaei said in an interview with Russia Today television network aired on Monday…
Iran will not compromise on its right to enrichment
The Russia Today correspondent asked: “What is Iran’s position regarding the US condition to halt uranium enrichment and hand over its enriched uranium stockpiles?”
Rezaei said, “We have enriched uranium within the framework of our international commitments, that is, in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and we will continue to do so in the future.”
He added, “We will not back down from our right to enrichment…”
Rezaei emphasized, “Regarding the enriched uranium reserves, it is the Islamic Republic of Iran that decides in this matter. We will not hand over the enriched material to any person or entity. Therefore, we will not accept any conditions regarding the enriched materials.”
‘Trump is simply incapable of negotiating’
Commenting on US President Donald Trump’s repeated claims about wanting a deal with Iran…He expressed deep skepticism about reaching a genuine agreement with the United States, citing Trump’s well-known inconsistency and subservience to the Zionist regime.
“Mr. Trump does not demonstrate the necessary courage in negotiations”
Another reading on the US-Israel dynamics, before Israel resumed its attack on Lebanon, from the Financial Times in Who calls the shots? Trump and Netanyahu clash over diverging goals:
“I call the shots. I call all the shots. [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots,” Trump exclaimed in an interview with the FT on Sunday. Would Netanyahu ultimately have to accept a deal with Iran? “He won’t have a choice.”…
A US defence official on Monday said American forces had not joined Israel’s attacks on Iran over the previous day, in a sign of Washington’s displeasure at the last strikes on Lebanon and Iran. The official said the US did launch interceptors to defend its troops in Israel, however….
But despite the friction, there is scant indication that Trump is prepared to deploy stronger leverage, such as denying US military aid to Israel…
Polls suggest a majority of Israelis favour continuing the fighting with Iran, with most believing that the country has failed to achieve its goals. A survey by the Institute for National Security Studies last month found only 37 per cent of the population was satisfied with the results so far.
In the “Kill me now” category, see the BBC video, Trump tells BBC Netanyahu did not defy him.
Keep in mind that Trump made his attempts at stand-down orders to Netanyahu over the weekend and then on Monday. That timing means was unlikely to yet have gotten enormous and predictable pushback from the Israel lobby and billionaire Zionists and evangelicals.
On top of that, Israel could still defy the US even if Trump were to do something wildly out of character, which is to show a bit of courage and start to meter down Israel access to intel or weapons supplies. He could also tell the Gulf states to deny Israel use of their airspace (recall that the latest attacks on Iran were from standoff distances, using Iraqi and Saudi airspace).
But Israel was born as a terrorist state and can still fall back on that even if the US were to try to clip its wings.
And dream if Israel will fall into line. It never does, as this anecdote from former CIA officer John Kiriakou, in a talk with Theo Von, illustrates:
From a mildly-cleaned up machine transcript:
Kiriakou: So, the Iraqis have electrical towers like we have everywhere, but ours have four legs and the Iraqis have three legs. So, just a few days before we attacked Iraq, at that time I’m the I’m the executive assistant to the deputy director for operations at the CIA. So, it’s the most serious job I ever had in my life.
Von: So, you have access to a lot.
Kiriakou: Literally everything.
Von: Wow.
Kiriakou: And the Israelis come to us and they said, “Listen, you guys are going to attack Iraq in a couple days. We want in.”
We said “Absolutely not. We put this coalition together with all these Arab countries. As soon as you guys jump in, all the Arabs are going to drop out. Just let us do it.”
Next thing you know, every one of these electrical towers just begins to topple over like 150 miles worth in the Western Desert because somebody put explosives on just one of the three legs.
And I remember my boss saying, “These damn Israelis, they just can’t leave well enough alone.”
“They just don’t ever do as they’re told.”
This Janta Ka segment gave a fine overview of the state of play right before the new strikes. A key section that bears on the current discussion is the full clip of Tom Massie describing the Israel attack on the USS Liberty in detail, starting at 15:15. The details are harrowing:
Trita Parsi3 provided a key bit of information on US perceptions a talk with Owen Jones. Keep in mind that this was recorded before the latest Israel attack on Lebanon:
From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
Trita: I think there’s some reporting now that suggests that because the Israelis struck at Iranian oil infrastructure, we may already see a closing of uh the Red Sea. The Houthis have also sent missiles towards Israel and they said that they’re going to close that. I don’t know for certain if that is a a finalized decision.
At a minimum, it is something that is being thrown out there as a threat. And that is the attempt again to have escalation dominance. If the Red Sea is closed, that means that uh a significant portion of additional traffic including oil is going to be closed down. It’s going to shoot up oil prices even further. It’s going to create significant problems.
If on top of that, the Iranians start striking at GCC oil infrastructure, particularly against the UAE, in retaliation for what the Irvan Israelis have done, then we’re going to have a production problem, not just a bottleneck problem. And that in of itself is not only going to push up oil prices, it’s going to push up oil prices in a prolonged way.
That is now happening simultaneously with the US side believing that the Iranians actually are having an increased difficulty to close the Strait of Hormuz and that there’s going to be an increase of traffic going through regardless because the Iranians simply don’t have, they’re losing their ability to be able to completely close down all different areas of the Straight of Hormuz. And as a result, there was a degree of optimism on the American side that oil prices actually could be pushed down to $60 a barrel, now instead we’re seeing that as a result of this fighting is now creeping closer to 100.
On the status of the Bab el-Mandeb, in comments on our post yesterday, we pointed to a video clip that showed a Yemini military spokesman saying that strait was closed to Israel. However, that was also translated and thus could have been one of those “running dog enemy” formulations that stood not just for Israel but also its presumed allies. But I don’t see anything yet from a source that looks adequately careful that says that anything other than Israel-connected ships are barred. For instance, Lloyd’s List reports:
Houthis declare ‘total ban’ on Israeli ships in Red Sea as Israel-Iran strikes shatter ceasefire.
And even though there is ample evidence that the US operations in and near the Strait of Hormuz are not going swimmingly (see for instance from Anadolu Agency in Crew rescued after US attack helicopter goes down near Strait of Hormuz), Trump is a binge-watcher of Fox News, and Fox is still loudly proclaiming that the Iran military is just about reduced to fighting with shovels.
The US confidence in Iran’s weakness is bizarre in that the only reason the US navy is still trundling about is that Iran has refrained from doing much more than firing warning shots. Iran is clearly capable of sinking destroyers and aircraft carriers (it might hold off from the latter even if severely provoked due to the resulting contamination). What might induce Iran to stop exercising restraint?
But consistent with the US beliefs about the Iranian not being able to bar ships all that well:
Significant amount of Middle Eastern oil is leaving the Persian Gulf by tanker via the Strait of Hormuz (in addition of the bypass pipelines).
The telltale is the decline over the last few weeks of onshore crude inventories. Plus the surge in STS activity just outside Hormuz. https://t.co/bSjG7Fc4yh
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 9, 2026
However, Javier Blas also believes things that no one credible, from shipping experts to Saudi Aramco executive, believe:
COLUMN: When the day comes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be extraordinary: restarting about 10,000 oil wells, pumping roughly 15% of the world’s production.
When it happens, it would go quicker than many think: weeks, not months.@Opinionhttps://t.co/oav02e1Rdk
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 8, 2026
See by contrast:
Hormuz traffic remains constrained
Strait of Hormuz transit activity remained constrained over 5 to 7 June, with only eight monitored crossings across commercial and non-commercial traffic. The total was one below the single-day count on 4 June and 14 below the previous weekend,… pic.twitter.com/41cpmoF8Qf
— Kpler (@Kpler) June 9, 2026
We are now turning, a bit late, to an absolutely must-read indictment of Zionism by Alon Mizrahi in Normalize (Voicing) the Demand to End Israel. The text is far more ferocious than his headline. Please read it in full and circulate widely. From the top
Israel is fundamentally, intrinsically, irrevocably, openly evil beyond the wildest fantasies of a non-Zionist human being.
I could end here, but I won’t.
There is no letting anyone off the hook anymore, and I will do whatever I can to not allow it
___
It never, for a single day of its cursed existence (I will not take a neutral tone, and if that’s what you’re looking for, go fuck yourself) (bye), behaved differently. It is measurably becoming insaner, deadlier, and more dangerous for the very existence of a functioning human society everywhere.
It is a colonial, genocidal presence in the middle of human consciousness. It seeks to normalize the worst acts of barbarism in recorded or unrecorded history. It has no shame, no conscience, no remorse, no regret, no obligation to anything and anyone but its dark wishes; it sees itself as beholden to no one, while expecting every living thing to worship and support it for every second of their miserable existence – which is only miserable because nothing humiliates a human like being forced to coexist with open and openly satanic evil; the only thing making it worse is the complicity of an entire human class of Zionist whores in high places, who rule like an alien species over hundreds of millions of people who abhor and detest Israel and Zionism with every fiber of their healthy, beautiful, living soul.
What we should never do is let that class of traitors to humanity think and feel that they can force us into accepting Zionism and all the horrors it connotes by bullying and intimidating the popular majority in every country under the sun.
Again, be sure to take the time to read Mizahi’s essay and publicize it.
Due to this post already being on the long side, we will treat only briefly the final headline topic, the debate over when the oil price cliff will hit. Recall that a clutch of top experts, such as Jeff Currie, as well as executives at Exxon and Chevron, have issued warning that the expect the inventories and reserves that have succeeded so far in buffering the effect of the loss of supply from the Gulf area to hit critically low levels roughly in July, with the result that prices will jump then.
In an indication that there seems a lot of pressure to suppress bad news to protect the Confidence Fairy, I was stunned to learn that jet fuel prices have shot up in many key hubs due to shortages…a fact I have yet to see reported in the mainstream media, even in the affected regions, based on a quick search. Indeed, the in-your-face Google AI agent denies that any such thing is happening.
Jeff Currie thinks we are sleepwalking into one of the biggest commodity shocks since Covid and the market is still pricing it like a headline risk instead of a physical crisis (Save this).
He calls it molecular contagion and last week, jet fuel shortages were concentrated in… pic.twitter.com/fJ9rFuMk9u
— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) June 6, 2026
From the body of this tweet, based on the Bloomberg News segment:
He calls it molecular contagion and last week, jet fuel shortages were concentrated in Singapore, where prices spiked to roughly 230 dollars a barrel.
This week the same pattern has shown up in Rotterdam at around 220 dollars and in Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Australia which means the dislocation has gone intercontinental.
In his words, there is no longer any meaningful spread between Singapore and Rotterdam, no spare barrels to re route, and no policy lever that can solve the problem in the short term.
But oil expert Arthur Berman disagrees with how Currie and HFI Research are reading data. The core of the argument in his, Hormuz: A Logistics Crisis, Not Yet an Inventory Crisis:
I am not disputing that the disruption HFI describes is real. It is. The disagreement is about the rate at which inventories are being depleted. HFI argues that the available buffers are insufficient to prevent U.S. commercial crude inventories from reaching operational minimums in the near future. My reading of the data is different. Current inventory deficits simply do not suggest depletion is occurring fast enough to reach “tank bottom” levels by late July.
The wee problem is that, in addition to the readings of Exxon and Chevron, who will have access to far more data and anecdata than Currie or HFI or Berman could have, is that OilPrice headlines and articles are also taking an alarmist tone. Admittedly, OilPrice has sometimes gotten out over its skis, such as year-past warnings about possible tightness in diesel markets. But its reporters spend all day talking to industry members and its commentators are often in or near the oil biz.
Some headlines from its landing page now:
The Countdown to a Major Oil Price Surge Has Begun
Risks to Red Sea Oil Exports Could Roil Oil Market Further
Morgan Stanley Sees Asian LNG Prices Soaring to 3.5-Year High
What is telling is the difference in tone from an industry specialist site compared to weird calm at Bloomberg, the Financial Times, and the Wall Street Journal. Part of this is no doubt the undue faith in oil futures prices, which are no longer reliable indicators:
Spot on: "That tells me @LukeGromen is right, and all the oil traders, who are not admin insiders, are sitting on the sidelines because they are tired of being front-run by insiders, which, to be clear, is not healthy for a market because it effectively acts as a price control." https://t.co/NNNIFxtD7q
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) June 9, 2026
So Berman may be correct, but drawing down inventories to keep prices suppressed is subsidizing consumption when the officialdom should be aggressively trying to discourage consumption, if not by price, then by other means. Perhape the officialdom in a lot of countries will get religion before the crunch hits. But even if so, it strikes me a likely to be too little, too late.
Done for today! See you tomorrow!
_____
1 For the record, from PressTV in PressTV Iran announces suspension of operations after ‘painful response’ to Zionist regime
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has announced the cessation of military operations against Israel, stating that a “painful response” has been delivered to the Zionist regime in support of the oppressed people of Lebanon.
The headquarters said in a statement on Monday that the halt comes after Iran’s powerful armed forces delivered a response to the “atrocities and mischief” of the “savage Zionist regime” in southern Lebanon and the Dahiyeh district, which were carried out with the support of “criminal America”….
The announcement follows a series of missile strikes by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) on Sunday targeting Israel’s Ramat David Air Base in northern occupied territories.
The IRGC said the operation was in response to Israel’s “widespread crimes” in southern Lebanon, including the killing and displacement of civilians, and that the air base had served as the origin of aggressions against Lebanon.
On Monday, the IRGC struck Israel’s strategic Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases in northern occupied territories after Israeli aggression on several Iranian cities.
Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted that the ceasefire between Iran, the United States and Israel that took effect on April 8 was conditional on a truce on all fronts.
However, Israel, with a US greenlight and the silence of international organizations, has continued its “malicious actions” against the Lebanese people on a daily basis, committing war crimes by using banned weapons, including phosphorus bombs, Iranian officials say.
The headquarters emphasized that while operations have been halted, “much more intense and crushing measures than before” will be taken if aggression and mischief, including in southern Lebanon, continue….
He [Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a senior commander in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and the spokesman of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters] also issued a stark warning to the United States and Israel, saying “criminal America and the brutal Zionist regime must know that a strong and proud Iran and the honorable resistance forces in the region will stand firm under any circumstances and against any threat, and will never bow their heads in surrender to the losing enemies of war”.
“If aggression and mischief continue, they will be dealt with even greater intensity,” he added.
2 A cinematic version of what that looks like:
2 It is puzzling to see Trita keep saying that Iran is insisting on getting $12 billion of its frozen assets as a condition of entering into the memorandum of understanding when a top Iran official publicly said on June 6 that the price of entry was $24 billion:
Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, told CNN that a potential peace deal between Iran and the United States is currently blocked, and that this deadlock can only be broken by the Trump Administration agreeing to release $24 billion in… pic.twitter.com/kKInFE1hhn
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 5, 2026
Obviously, Trita is hearing something different from his contacts….who are intermediaries, not principals. It is not uncommon in negotiations for those trying to broker a deal to get ahead their principals.
‘Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
COLUMN: When the day comes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be extraordinary: restarting about 10,000 oil wells, pumping roughly 15% of the world’s production. When it happens, it would go quicker than many think: weeks, not months.’
Javier Blas further states that gas prices in America will become so cheap, that gas coming out of gas pumps will be too cheap to measure.
I want to know what he’s smoking. Must be some good shit.
damn! – must be mainlining the pure stuff – pure delusion –
Very soon the magical fairy-bug is due to go splat against the windshield.
Just to focus on Trump, the #1 mouth-piece who has been claiming that oil-prices will be at pre-war levels within weeks for months now, that claim is indelibly seared into the brain of even die-hard MAGA who’d rather chew on glass than accept any alternate reality– but it’s a claim that will be impossible to walk-back, especially considering that our society needs hydrocarbons nearly as much as the air we breathe and the water we drink: we’re all in for big-hurt, MAGA included, so on some level Trump must know he’s running out of time.
And then what?
I’d be surprised if he can hang on to the presidency for another six-months, let alone for another year: public outrage will simply be too great, and someone will need to go down– get blamed– for all of this long before we can figure-out what is to be done..
Maybe I need to check my knee-jerk reaction here, but I think we make a key mistake in thinking that “Trump must know he’s running out of time.”
He may know the score, but he personally has all the time in the world, and his actions really are all about him.
The elections may go badly, and his political control may slip (which is ultimately arguable given the nature of MAGA), but he personally is beyond giving a flip what happens to you or me…or even those MAGA people, really.
If the elections begin to go against him, then he’ll unleash DOJ/ICE/MAGA on the key elections he needs to maintain control. He wins by bending the rules or breaking them; it’s the easy way or the hard way. I see him as feeling himself in complete control.
Even if this were not true, he’ll still be set until 2028, and he is on tract to being set regardless. Isn’t as though he’s paying for gas or has to worry about eating or his lifestyle being impacted.
It’s all about him. I hate to sound like I’m trolling, but there it is.
NOW, ]he may feel constrained, due to his pathological need to win and dominate. And due to how easy it is for him to be manipulated by the Usual Suspects and his own bottomless vanity, but we need to look for where the true levers on him really are.
I read the column here. It seems he was told to write an upbeat opinion piece on the possible fast recovery of oil deliveries if some day Hormuz reopens. He admits that that depends on some elusive diplomatic achievement between Iran and the US. He says that supertankers are parked close to the Persian Gulf and oil deliveries would go smooth and fast because that’s what the industry soundings tell him. Weeks, even days… to full recovery. Yihaaa! Happy days all over again!
IMO Mr. Blas makes here a good representation of deluded Western PMC thinking. “If only…” being one of the favourite phrase starting “things go back to where they were not long ago…”. Those people are simply unable to understand that the times they are changing and we are not going back to the past by pushing the rewind button.
Am I the only one wondering WTH Iran is doing, barely responding at all to Israel’s ongoing depredations? I keep wondering why they don’t unload on the genocidaires, and I’m starting to think they must be a lot weaker than they are claiming. Otherwise, it looks from here like they are not actually trying to stop Israel in Lebanon, as Israel has made it clear they are not stopping (or even slowing down), yet all Iran does is a strike here, a strike there. It looks weak to me. Very weak. Ditto with the spokesperson saying they will break the blockade. Ok, well, do it already…because from where I’m sitting both Iran and the US are nothing but bluster, and only the Israelis seem to have the will to actually do what they say they will. If I were Palestinian or Lebanese right now, I think I’d be full of hate for every single government in the region (and frankly the world) as they all seem to be basically ok letting Israel run rampant, with not but some harshly worded rebukes and the occasional missile salvo (when Israel is killing people on the daily). The military or political benefits of pretending that negotiations are possible with US/Israel is mystifying to me. What are they gaining by dragging their feet?
What about “war of attrition” don’t you understand?
The US and Israel cannot take a long war, either politically or materially. Iran has prepared for and indeed relishes a long war.
Leith Marouf says wars of decolonization typically take six years to succeed.
We are not even four months into this conflict, or even three years if you make October 7 the start (although Iran had nothing to do with the Hamas raid and was upset that they launched it without consulting them, since they would have put the kibosh on it).
indeed. ive also used the analogy of a 4 foot rattler in my greenhouse.
one must be careful, because one cannot be sure what the dern thing is gonna do.
in this case, “if they can sink a carrier, why dont they?” is the same thing as me “just shooting it”, without considering ricochet or missing and it racing between my feet.
as Tom has said, i reckon Iran will eventually disable/mangle the screws of one of these boats…to avoid mass casualties that might rally the american people.
(in the case of my snake, it was under the greenhouse woodstove, so i hit it with the waterhose until it had had enough and attempted to get under the house, and shot it with ratshot as it headed thataway….cut it in half, and only put a small hole in a window)
“…and only put a small hole in a window”, lol, an analogy to root for.
Rattlers are as rare as honest politicians around here, and I’m grateful for the snake half of that formula.
@ amfortas. Have you ever considered wearing WW2-style leggings when dealing with snakes? Read how one guy was doing training back in WW2 out in the field when he felt something hit his leg. Seeing nothing he continued on but when he returned to barracks and removed his leggings, found two fangs embedded in them.
That’s why cowboy boots are high. No need of leggings. In rural Texas boots are not necessarily a fashion statement. They keep the venomous snakes from biting. We have a neighbor who moved out of our neighborhood in Dallas to go live with family in the country NE of Dallas. Their adult daughter got bit by a snake. She went to the hospital and had a seriously swollen leg before recovering. Lots of pain and anxiety. I bet she wears boots now. 😁
And these days they’re serving double duty to help deter the dastardly Lone Star ticks. Alpha Gal is a brutal malady, but for Texans, it’s simply soul destroying.
Did it taste like chicken?
Or do you have to treat it like ticks and screwworm and marinade it overnight in food grade acetone? Asking for a fiend.
Food-grade propylene glycol (anti-freeze) adds a certain sweetness to the terroir of the tick…
That’s a good analogy. Strategizing how to wrap up the Israel project and handle the extraordinarily rapid decline of the USA with the minimum of damage to everyone else should be high on BRICS agenda.
Israel is already overextended and it becomes more so every day, this is a War of attrition and both the Israeli military and its society are becoming more stressed and brittle with every exchange of missiles and with every Kilometer its military advances.
At some point it will simply shatter.
The Iranians know this and so does any thoughtful observer, it is only a matter of time.
You are not alone, it’s disheartening to see them constantly back down and pretend to be “negotiating” when it’s clear no agreement is possible. Why haven’t they simply turned off the lights and water in Tel Aviv? Why put the Lebanese through all this?
And much more concerning, why are the US military and intelligence services ok with being constantly made fools of? It was always clear Israel was in charge but not to the degree we see here. Pure humiliation.
You really do not get this.
Iran is fighting the world’s biggest military power plus Israel, which has nukes.
Tell me how often and eagerly you have gotten into a fist fight with not one but two people who have made clear they intend to kill you. I bet never. So who are you to sit in judgement?!?!
Iran has preformed remarkably given its givens.
Iran has done a good job of setting the terms and appearing to stick to them.
The concern that the banksters have something up their sleeves in the realm of financial warfare should be considered. To date they have a good record of breaking things and coming out on top, and no, they don’t care if a lot of people die.
It’s still a toss up.
The Iranians were the only neighbors to show up as two big, rabid dogs roamed the street. Rabid dogs with nukes. These things must be done delicately.
Rev,
There might be a good reason for the nuclear powers to move “delicately” as well. At this point there are two theaters where nukes could be used:
-Russia against euoropaean poodles
– izzies aginst Iran
If either of the above goes first, the other will probably follow in quick order.
Predicting what might happen after such use against a non-nuclear opponent was not included in standard Army training. I would not even speculate.
BTW, –I do not see US using a nuke, tactical or strategic; that opens a larger game.
Remember the Liberty!
If the Russians go first I could definitely see the Israelis taking advantage of that precedence to immediately launch nuclear missiles at different places.
On the other hand if the Israelis went first I don’t see the Russians taking advantage of that precedence to immediately launch nuclear missiles. Reporting is that the whole reasoning for the Russians to launch nuclear weapons is to re-establish deterrence through demonstration. Following that logic, Russia would wait for some time after the Israel launch to see if it was sufficient to sober up the Europeans.
Perhaps they are afraid that a country that so willingly embraces Kissinger’s “madman theory” may indeed start firing off nuclear missiles. Whereas the “Hormuz strategy” punishes Israel’s enablers across the planet and undermines Israel’s true source of support which is not their military but rather their narrative control.
At any rate thanks to Yves for once again sorting through the mess. However re “evil” I think this merely reinforces that narrative by suggesting there’s something unique about all those Brooklyn and Russian transplants. Whereas they are merely exhibiting the historic irrationality that always plays a role in violence. The are deluded in the same way that my Southern ancestors were deluded or the French Ancien Regime was deluded. Eventually reality always has to step in.
Iran is working to defend its own people and land without unleashing massive bloodshed. The last thing it needs right now is to “take Lebanon to raise”. A better question is why the US keeps letting Israel act like a vicious bully, and subsidizing its activities.
Iran needs the whole world to repudiate Israel and the USA. It is a war of moral and geopolitical attrition as well as of stand-off weapons. This will happen at $200 oil or, more pertinently, at the uneven global incidence of supply destruction and this demand destruction consistent with $200 oil.
At the moment, Israel and the USA are clearly in the wrong invading Lebanon and blocking the Gulf of Oman whereas Iran is defending itself and exercising sovereignty in territorial waters, by the book.
Using Israeli attacks on specific Lebanese targets as a justification for attacks by Iran on Israel is a new step and one where Iran is taking the imitative and thus risks undermining its victim status in the coming oil crisis and allocation of blame.
Iran should deflect from this and mess with the Evangelical Zionists in the USA by giving Israel an ultimatum not attack the Christians of Tyre….
“Iran needs the whole world to repudiate Israel and the USA. […] This will happen at $200 oil or, more pertinently, at the uneven global incidence of supply destruction and this demand destruction consistent with $200 oil.”
I have my doubts, at least in the case of Europe. The agitprop machinery in the West is so well oiled and so dominant that it will make sure the population there remains convinced that it is all the fault of Iran (and of Ansarallah). It may even manage to inculcate the population of a number of other countries (esp. Latin America, where the USA is on a roll) with the proper view of things.
After all, Russia is the aggressor led by a despot and there are no naughties in Ukraine. And Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destructions (more people in the USA believe that nowadays than did 20 years ago). And Syria is now a free country. And Russia has been meddling in every possible democratic election (France, UK, Moldavia, Armenia, Romania, Czechia, Spain, you name it). And the war in the Near East started because Hamas terrorist perpetrated a massacre on hapless Israelis. Forget about Libya. And Mali. And Niger. And Somalia. And…
European elites are now eargerly offering themselves as catamites to the USA, and establishing a stupendous censorship and repression regime to prop up Israel.
All in all, it will take a massive discrepancy between
(1) Europe’s economic demise, its diplomatic descent into nothingness, and its final military decrepitude;
(2) the propaganda about how things are going and who is responsible for problems;
(3) how inept European elites tackle the issues in (1) and especially how much the interests of Europe are sacrificed for those of Israel and the USA;
to cause a repudiation of USA and Israel amongst the European population. It is increasingly suspicious of the USA and disgusted by Israel, but put Iran and the Palestinians into the mix, and these may still be considered as the gravest dangers.
I do not see an opinion shift towards a “repudiation” happening that fast.
Iran needs the whole world to repudiate Israel and the USA.
This really does seem to be the key. And it only happens over time with Iran needing to play its cards carefully and slowly, less they trigger the two bullies, who possess a psychology that will have a very hard time responding to the realities. For the US the stakes are hardly existential and they can eventually do what they must; the real problem is Israel, where the stakes have become genuinely existential.
Granted, the zionazis are worse than Ingsoc when it comes to info getting out about damage and I do understand the war of attrition thing, but too am underwhelmed when seeing the Iranian hits.
Why is Ben Gurion airport (usually with dozens of USAF sitting there) still functioning? Why have not their multiple military airports been reduced to rubble? Why is Dimona still functioning? Why are there Palantir and Unit 8200 buildings still standing?
It might just be the plan: https://open.substack.com/pub/realleft/p/the-programmable-crisis-iran-and?r=1om48m&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
Am I the only one wondering WTH Iran is doing, barely responding at all to Israel’s ongoing depredations?
The most depressing (implicit) aspect of your question is that you, along with the rest of the world, has long since stopped wondering why no other country outside of Yemen even verbally responds anymore.
That aside, try to really think through the implications of all the different responses Iran can make, and think a few steps ahead. It may be that Iran is better off by escalating and responding more strongly, but it is not necessarily obvious once you consider the second and third order effects.
Just to be clear, if I were Iran, I would have responded in a slightly escalating manner starting a long time ago, but I do not have their information or understanding of the situation. However, I don’t think that an overwhelming “shock and awe” campaign would have worked, no matter how emotionally cathartic it may have been.
Ditto with the spokesperson saying they will break the blockade. Ok, well, do it already…
And then what? Escort all the vessels all over the world for the foreseeable future? Why not just wait until the US and Rest of World are desperate for the blockade to end and drop this of their own accord? Or target the blockade when there is some kind of de facto or de jure guarantee that it will be the final blow?
The military or political benefits of pretending that negotiations are possible with US/Israel is mystifying to me. What are they gaining by dragging their feet?
I dunno–honestly, as best I can tell, Iran is better off dragging this on as long as it can while the fuel supplies dwindle, the Israeli army collapses, and the US weakens. From my perspective, a better question is why didn’t the US escalate weeks ago? What does it possibly gain by delaying?
This too is not rhetorical–no matter how much of a buffoon Trump is, the DoD and IC must be positioning for something, and they clearly need some time to implement it. No idea what it is, though.
All done! Please refresh this page and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment.
in a nutshell….
The Iranian Letter
@TheIranianzg3z
·
5h
BREAKING: A U.S. official told Axios that Netanyahu needs the war to continue to stay politically alive in Israel, while Trump needs the war to end to stay politically alive in the United States.
Trump also says the U.S. will declare “total victory” over Iran in about two weeks.
Funny that you should say that. I mean that bit about two weeks. It almost became a meme with Trump last year how he would say X was about to happen ‘in about two weeks.’
2 weeks: the T time unit. Possibly replacing the Tom Friedman 6-months time unit in popular discourse. / ;)
And Javier Blas in his Bloomberg column cited in his X post above in the article. He says a “matter of weeks, even days” to recover Middle East Oil trade. Trump isn’t alone in his deluded thinking. On the contrary he has a lot of company among the professional-managerial castes.
Brain event horizon – Tom forgot what he’d written after three months, Trump forgets what he says after one week.
Groundhog day.
Every night I watch the news to see what the latest narrative is. Tonight they said that Iran and Israel were shooting at each other so Trump told them to stop and they did. Seriously. They then said that a peace deal was almost here. At this point, the main stream media is as deluded as Mr. Market. In a functional society, the media should act as the nervous system for the body. That way people can decide and act on the information reported by the media. Yeah, that hasn’t happened for a very long time now and modern day journalist say that their job is being gatekeepers of whatever facts appear – and got upset when the internet bypassed them.
who owns the MSM? / ;)
No kidding. The headline last night was absurd. And then the price of oil dropped again:
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-iran-israel-halted-attacks-after-intervention/
Trump says deal in “two or three days”. Lines up nicely with Friday 4PM … just in time for the markets to close for the weekend. Rinse, lather, repeat …
It would nice if the media would “stick a pin in it” and, on Friday, when the lie is once again exposed, run a big banner headline blaring “Taco lies again! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Or, if they are really feeling like journalists, do an expose on Barak Ravid and how he is shamelessly acting as an Israeli agent disguised as a member of the press.
But it seems that our press would rather take a toaster bath than report honestly.
In the 1970’s there were around 50 major news organizations in the US, now there are 6. If they’re not controlled by an individual or family, their boards are controlled by the same few major corporations – BlackRock, State Street, Vanguard, etc.
https://www.webfx.com/blog/internet/the-6-companies-that-own-almost-all-media-infographic/
Did you mean years instead of months?
We are not even four months from February 28.
I had revised the comment (I had the discussion of time 2x) and managed to lose “years” with respect to October 7. Will fix.
All of this “he said she said” argumentation between “experts” in the energy field sounds a lot like the old “rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic as it sinks” meme. This is a situation where we must admit and adjust to having at best ‘insecure’ knowledge. I wonder if those in control of the various strategic petroleum reserves really know how much is available. They might also be working with “best guess” figures, like the rest of us.
On a related note, I am having a very hard time convincing friends and family that a real problem is coming. Propaganda, despite this insular groups (commentariat) best efforts, is powerful and often effective. I fear it will take the imposition of great and lasting pain to “wake up” the general public. By then, of course, it will be too late for many.
Stay safe. Stack deep.
My neighbors drive around in their hulking vehicles as though in open defiance of any notion that limits may be coming. Whereas my grandparents didn’t even have indoor plumbing. There was a generation that during and post Vietnam made gestures toward rejecting materialism, but in many cases it was mere play acting.
This time it may be a lot more serious. The country is also a lot more populous than it was back then with more people competing for resources.
You got that right. The present US population is over 335 million people but back during the Vietnam war, it was a little over 200 million people-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_United_States
Indeed. I’ve been wondering how much demand destruction it takes to destroy society.
How about we grab some popcorn, sit down, and then wait awhile. :(
Sadly, that seems to be the path we are on. I do have a solid stash of popcorn downstairs, a habit I picked up years ago reading these pages.
What happens when a hungry guy with a gun decides to jack your popcorn though?
I just drove around the country because I had some good reasons to, and I am well aware it may be the last time it is affordable. Prices are high, but not inflation adjusted, and not compared to Europe. I’ll be darned if DJT is going to clip my wings and confine me to quarters while the Pentagon pisses away jet fuel like it’s water, and I’m not going to wait for the next life to go places.
Now I’ll settle in for a hiatus from travel and being careful with fuel, because yes, it is going to hit the fan.
On that related note, same here. Nobody wants to hear it, nobody wants to think about it.
What do you get for pretending the danger’s not real
Meek and obedient you follow the leader
Down well trodden corridors into the valley of steel
What a surprise
Pink Floyd, Sheep.
Meanwhile, I have been stacking deep, but the rule of thumb is one’s larder, no matter how robust, is only as resilient as their neighbors’ stores collectively are.
Stay alert.
It seems the Iranian retaliation to Israel’s aggression in Lebanon surprised many Israelis…
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iranian-strikes-surprise-israel-and-raise-concern-strategic-setback
The attitude of “would not dare fire” shows the Israelis still underestimate the will of the Iranians.
The Israelis still have difficulty in dealing with a nation that has the capability to shoot back if attacked. I’m sure that their first reaction to the latest Iranian barrage was to ask ‘Wait! Are they even allowed to do that?’
I was amazed that no one at one of Rubio’s press conferences last week broke out laughing when he said that Iran’s blockage of the strait was illegal. They may be sociopaths, but no one could claim that they are high functioning ones.
Trump states that Bibi is NOT in control, Trump is in control.
I am thinking back to Trump declaring that Zelinsky had no cards.
The karmic return of Trump’s premature ejaculations regarding “the game”- Trump can’t count, and is certainly not playing with a full deck or any ego-checked objectivity.
On another note, with the new federal law kicking in and cutbacks on food aid to Americans, I saw where a person’s $200/ month was reduced to $50.00 per month.
The Next Hot Thing: Real Estate futures for bridge-deck walk-outs…mid-90’s sedans are so declassee!
America needs a re-set on values and the folks running the show. The tragi-comedy has lost the thread and is not funny- at all, just like the wanna-be stand-up on stage.
Yep. T is driving the car. / ;)
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/98/62/e9/9862e9e9012f6c7c948b4f4894ca3811.jpg
Just like Thelma and Louise.
Food for thought…
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
hm. 2022, did something happen then?
Market manipulations for war, selling off the commons for the benefit of the PTB.
Socialism for rich people and corpses.
End Citizens United, repeal the Patriot Act.
Shop Consumer!
What? no more financial parasites, kleptocracy and oligarchy? Why, that’s “un-American”! Be careful, you might be accused of being a Communist infiltrator and interrogated in front of the HUAC. ;-)
‘Middle East Observer
@ME_Observer_
⚡️ Channel 14 Hebrew:
A senior official in the Israeli security system estimates tonight that a return to a violent and intense round of fighting with Iran is a matter of a short time, and may occur within the next few days.
– Maintaining a state of alert and maximum readiness until further notice, at both defensive and offensive levels.’
Bibi: ‘Hey Donald, Watch me pull an Israeli victory over Iran out of this hat.’
Don: ‘That trick never works!’
Bibi: ‘This time for sure!’
Iranian Lion roars.
Bibi: ‘I think I need to get a different hat.’
loved Rocky & Bullwinkle – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIBdVkJ9L-k
CNN: US Apache helicopter downed over Strait of Hormuz:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/middleeast/trump-pilots-helicopter-apache-hormuz-intl-hnk
I’ve got some issues right away with this story. First, CNN properly uses the passive voice “went down” here, but other MSM are already jumping to the conclusion that it was an accident, not Iranian fire that took it down.
Second – only two crew members on an Apache helicopter? I would think that would be the bare minimum, as you need a redundant pilot in case the first one gets shot/injured. What about other crew, it seems suspicious that there would only be two on this kind of helicopter, there should be mission specialists, gunners, spotters, etc.
Maybe someone w/ actual military experience (not me!) can chime in.
Telegram analysts are exploring all other possible angles, e.g., friendly fire, the “Hormuz Triangle”, aliens, or the laundry room. ;)
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/186140
And that is at least another thirty million dollars in the drink. At this point I am wondering about the effect of wear and tear on those aircraft operating in this region. You have had naval ships suffer breakdowns so it is only logical that you would have the same with aircraft and helicopters. By the time this is all over and those aircraft sent home, they will all be in for a major overhaul and maintenance.
only two crew members on an Apache helicopter?
Yes, that’s what it’s designed for– close air-support– kinda like an A-10.
You may be thinking of Blackhawk helicopters of which there are multiple variations and configurations.
The two crew are both pilots. The guns and missiles are mounted on the side and fired like the thing is a fighter plane. It’s called a “helicopter gunship” and I believe was first used in Vietnam.
Thanks. I guess the alleged detail that both pilots were rescued (I say alleged, because we still haven’t seen the infamous pilot rescued in the desert back in March, have we?) points to an accident. Though it is possible it could have been hit with something away from the cockpit, like the tail, and the pilots were able to ditch in the water.
Either way, as Rev Kev points out, oops there goes another 30 million. That would have bought a lot of Space X stock!
ChrisFromGA at 10:18 am
“oops there goes another 30 million.”
Yes. Another 30 million dollar order for the military industrial complex. It’s a plus for them. They are one of the major factions running the U.S.
No doubt the grifters are gonna grift, but I prefer to look at it from a real-world thermodynamic perspective.
How much energy will it take to produce a replacement Apache? How many “rare earths”? Where are they going to come from, now that Xi Jinpeng has chucked an electric toaster into the free traders bath tub, fully plugged in while they bathe?
And slices of that $30M will end up in the campaign chests of Congress critters year you.
You are thinking of the Cobra attack helicopter for Vietnam.
The Apache prototypes started flying in 1975. Production of the Apache was authorized in 1982 and it entered service in 1986.
Thanks.
Damned lint. Get’s everywhere 🤭
Wall Street Journal:
“I have just been informed by our Great Military that last night the Iranians shot down one of our highly sophisticated Apache Helicopters while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said on Truth Social. “There were two pilots involved, both are safe and uninjured. Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/apache-helicopter-crash-coast-oman-4de26c6d?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Interesting event. The Apache was on the western side of the Strait of Hormuz, over the horizon. Additionally its hardened, crew compartment and rotor blades are designed to sustain a hit from 23 mm rounds. Its difficult ponder much as there is no video of a hit, only thing I’ve seen is a clip of one descending in a slow arch.
I’ve seen reports that it might have been a Missile-358 SAM or a next gen Ghaem-118. Also reported that one of these is what shot down a MQ-4C Triton drone. At the end of the day – all this – points out the fundamental difference in how Russia/China/Iran military R&D/Mfg operate vs the West. The for profit/share holder/WS investor model makes a few people rich, employs a few people at above avg income but, can’t ***compete*** with nations that have been under sanctions for decades. Another victory lap for neoliberalism …
Here you go …
Blake Scholl 🛫
@bscholl
It takes 400 companies >2 years to build a Patriot missile. Perhaps this is why USA suddenly gave up in Iran.
Incompetent manufacturing will cause us to lose future wars too. Boom is building vertically integrated factories that can do in 24h what otherwise takes years. 🧵
https://x.com/bscholl/status/2064406095180022187
I used to work with Blake at Amazon. Smart guy. He gave me my first LinkedIn endorsement.
Pars Today has reported several snippets from Israel Hayom. Reposting, ’cause.
—–
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/208198
Israeli media on Monday reported, that despite statements in American media, CENTCOM assisted Israel in both attacking Iran and in defending against Iranian missiles.
CBS had earlier stated that the American army did not participate in the first Israeli attacks on Iran after the ceasefire, and that Washington did not give orders to defend the Israeli regime against Iranian missiles.
However, Israel Hayom reported that America provided reconnaissance data and air coordination in support of Israeli strikes and anti-missile defense.
—–
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/208206
Israeli sources in security services admitted in an interview to Israel Hayom that prior to deciding on a strike against a southern suburb of Beirut they did not think it likely that Iran will respond by shelling the territory of Israel.
In fact, even after the Iranians had threatened to respond with strikes against Israel, some in Israel still believed that they would not carry these threats out.
Now Tel Aviv finds itself in a very difficult situation, as Iran has established a highly concerning formula, according to which a strike against a southern suburb of Beirut automatically leads to missile strikes on Israel from Iranian territory.
The question now is will Israel maintain its attacks on the southern suburbs of Beirut, or will it “tolerate” the current state of affairs to avoid Iranian strikes.
—–
https://t.me/parstodayrussian/208260
The newspaper Israel Hayom reports that in the course of 12 hours of Iranian strikes on Israeli territory the damage to infrastructure amounted to over $500 million. According to the article, despite customary censorship the extent of the damage and human losses have been revealed in public.
A former head of Israeli military intelligence stated that the new “formula” established by Iran constitutes a significant victory for Teheran. He added that Iran demonstrated its ability to fully support the forces of resistance.
Israeli regime’s Channel 12 also admitted that Israel now finds itself in a situation where it is effectively “stuck in a trap” while the rules of the game are set by Iran.
Which is more indication that the exchanges between the emperor and provincial prefect were most likely more political theater. The US “good cop” to Israel “bad cop”. I would think that the US assists Israeli aircraft with refueling.
The US similarly tries to hide the fact it is actively engaged in providing Ukraine with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
Prof. Robert Pape with Mario Nawfal.
BREAKING: HEZBOLLAH INFILTRATES ISRAEL, APACHE SHOT DOWN – w/ Prof. Robert Pape
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wfVXkp9eGs
Stresses, stresses everywhere…. I had been hoping Trump would fall asleep at the Knicks game, shown on the Jumbotron, but he must have chugged his Diet Coke…
1). US troops, families adjust to new normal of Iran war
“To maintain this constant state of ‘Level 10’ alert vigilance, to be ready to go at the drop of a hat, is a very stressful and difficult operational mission,” said one U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Joseph Votel, the former commander of the U.S. military’s Central Command, described the current conflict phase as “a very, very dangerous period for us.” He said keeping troops ready during the ceasefire is no small challenge.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-troops-families-adjust-to-new-normal-iran-war-2026-06-07/
2). ‘Red meat is a dream’: Iran inflation hits highest level since World War II
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/5/red-meat-is-a-dream-iran-inflation-hits-highest-level-since-world-war-ii
Bro says Trump was heartily booed at the game.
Something like “Let’s go, Biden!” ? / ;)
He was caught asleep at the game, loudly booed/jeered both inside and outside MSG.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/trump-at-the-knicks-game
And the Knicks lost after stealing two on the road from San Antonio.
@ 7am PDT I see this:
Israel launches deadly strikes on Lebanon’s Tyre after warning
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/israel-launches-deadly-strikes-lebanons-114214655.html
Israel launches new Lebanon strikes even as Trump insists Iran deal coming soon
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/trump-iran-deal-israel-lebanon-strikes-tyre-christians-rcna349149
Trump says Iran deal could be reached in ‘two or three days’ and Strait of Hormuz will reopen ‘immediately’
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/trump-iran-war-deal-days.html
Can’t stop, won’t stop [bombing Lebanon].
Israel launches new Lebanon strikes even as Trump insists Iran deal coming soon
This is absolutely nothing compared to hte amount of bombing they will do after the deal is signed
0830 PDT
In A First, India Deploys 12 Nuclear Warheads In Big Policy Shift
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/in-a-first-india-deploys-12-nuclear-warhead-in-big-policy-shift-report-11611678/amp/1
Does the CPI for May get released tomorrow?
I think so
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
But good news! (paper) WTI is down, below 88/bbl. today. Hooray! inflation is tamed and prices will start going down. The emperor promised
Ask, and ye shall receive:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4912861-markets-dont-like-good-news-anymore
Kevin Warsh may wish that he hadn’t taken the Fed Chair job. Is it “too late” to beg Jay Powell to stay on as Fed Chair?
This is probably the most infuriating and insulting remark that an Iranian official could have said about Trump, short of dumping a bowl of mashed potatoes on his head at a press conference. Seems like they really have his number.
The Dems should use this in campaign material going forward (great bumper sticker!).
If only they can demonstrate the necessary courage…
Another good Dem bumper sticker.
Except Dem leadership, such as it is, supports the embodiment of evil that is Zionism.
Dem leadership is fundamentally, intrinsically, irrevocably, openly as evil as the worst of the Zionist human(?) beings (and so are their Republican counterparts).
0930 PDT
Fuel supply disruptions spark panic-buying in southern Russian region
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fuel-supply-disruptions-spark-panic-buying-southern-russian-region-2026-06-09/
Canada sanctions more ‘extremist’ West Bank settlers
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/canada-sanctions-more-extremist-west-bank-settlers/
Having consulted certain recesses of the internet, I now understand the significance of Trump’s 37 assurances that a deal with Iran is in its final stages. Numerologically, 37 is influenced on a deep level by physical power, the dominant expression of which is sexuality. People with an intermediate number of 37 will use physical power or sexuality to create the expansion of awareness required to dominate. Plus, 37 is not only the 13th prime, but when added to its constituent primes totals 66! Hello?? Tell me the man doesn’t know exactly what he’s doing!
Wonder if Trump’s frequent highlighting of 47 years of ‘Iran at war with the USreal is him being obsessed that he is also the 47th President. I seem to remember him assigning the new 6-th gen military jet the tag F-47 too. Now is this a product of dementia or just plain narcissism?
0940 PDT
US leads record rise in spending on nuclear arsenals, campaign group says
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-leads-record-rise-spending-nuclear-arsenals-campaign-group-says-2026-06-08/
US carriers spent $6.5B on fuel in April; global profit forecast is cut nearly in half
https://apnews.com/article/jet-fuel-airlines-iran-war-fbcdb0882feaf57045555a586a1a3d8b
I woke up this morning to a photo of a dozen smiling people I know in Israel holding up passports they just secured. Half of these folks served in the IDF and all have lived in Israel all their lives. This would have been unimaginable five years ago, but they felt they had no choice but to have an option outside Israel and the United States. This is another way Israel is losing.
The US is stating that Iran shot down the Apache helicopter over the SoH…
Trump vows to respond…
From Aljazeera live feed…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/9/iran-war-live-trump-warns-netanyahu-as-israel-tehran-halt
Just the excuse he was looking for.
Aljazeera does have an article…
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/9/trump-says-iran-shot-down-us-helicopters-over-hormuz-vows-to-respond
CENTCOM statement on X:
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces began launching self-defense strikes against Iran at 5 p.m. ET today at the Commander in Chief’s direction, in response to yesterday’s downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter. The mission is a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression.
Seems keen to make clear it’s not relaunching the full war.
Strikes reported on Bandar Abbas and Queshm.
I also see Iran denying it was them that shot down the Apache (if it was indeed shot down rather than had an accident). And Iran saying they will respond proportionally.
Curious. Tit-for-seeming-tat in the wrestle for Hormuz dominance.
None of which leads to Hormuz being both open and trusted as safe by shippers.
The part that I find very curious is that Iran has apparently left Saudi alone in its retaliation. I wonder if KSA promised to not intercept any missiles in return?
Daniel Davis and Stas Krapivnik have both called BS on the Centcom story. Maybe they’s believe the story if the chopper was said to have been brought down by a manpad or machine guns, but not by a Shahed: it’s extremely difficult for a suicide drone to hit a helicopter gunship, and, if it did, nobody could have survived the fireball.
re Mizrahi’s article –
In this piece Mizrahi writes, “It seeks to normalize the worst acts of barbarism…”
A confirmation of Mizrahi’s sentiments found at the Cradle.co.
Quoting a Jerusalem Post article, the Cradle’s aricle:
Ben Gvir said, according to the Jerusalem Post:
“Let’s start thinking outside the box about Hezbollah…Also, conquering territory and killing many terrorists, but also arresting their women and youth and taking them to terrorist prisons,” he went on to demand.
https://thecradle.co/articles/imprison-their-women-and-children-supremacist-israeli-minister-calls-on-troops-to-abduct-lebanese-civilians
writ large send people to “terrorist prisons”, hmm… IMHO seems like these words may have been read by at least one Iranian observer
These fiends in human shape (thank you, P.G. Wodehouse) are so brazen they publicly advertise their crimes against humanity.
Well, it worked in the Boer Wars….
Wasn’t that what they decided at Wannsee?
Interesting how history may not repeat, but sure seems to rhyme:
The 1956 Suez Crisis: Israel’s geopolitical turning point
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826811
Seems like Israel has some prior history on empire wrecking – but it seems to be their allies that get wrecked.
In fairness, neither country was really an empire by that point–Suez just made them finally drop their pretentions and recognize the fact.
When google AI lies (as it does often), I like to ask it why it is lying.
So I just put into the google search engine:
“why is google AI lying about jet fuel shortages that are occuring now?”
and got:
“Google AI is not deliberately lying; rather, it is pulling from a deeply conflicted and rapidly shifting news landscape regarding global fuel supplies. The confusion stems from a major divide between real supply realities and airline public relations statements.
The Conflict: The U.S. blockade and closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war disrupted approximately 14% of global oil supplies. This caused the price of jet fuel to double.
The “Shortage” Side: Industry groups like the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have raised alarms about reduced availability, prompting thousands of flight cuts and capacity reductions.
The “No Shortage” Side: Simultaneously, many major airlines, government transport officials (like those in the EU), and private aviation executives are publicly stating that a literal physical shortage of fuel isn’t occurring. Instead, they argue that supplies are available on the open market, but the prices are simply incredibly high.”
I am not claiming that this is a valuable answer although it is closer to the truth. Mainly it is satisfying to point out to google that it is obvious that it lies.
Google didn’t answer the question of why. Why?
Also, within the answer it gives for the “no shortage” argument is the admission that prices are “simply incredibly high”. Oh, could that be a result of shortages? Of course not, because they’re simply incredibly high
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YldNU-eTlMQ
i dont really trust mario, but this malcolm nance guy is the shit,lol
Malcolm Nance really seems to know about what drones can do, and more understands the long game of dragging out the closure. Iran seems ready to prolong the world pain till something cracks. Like Usreal.
d’you mean this M. Nance?
yeah, he’s the shit, indeed…
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/7
he’s a f’ing clown
Nawfal is ridiculously naive yet he seems to be learning.
Nance is malignant