Iran War: Israel Again Bombs Lebanon, Defying Trump and Killing “Deal”; Middle East Straits as Foundations for New Security Architecture; Alon Mizrahi’s Zionism Delenda Est; Debate Over Oil Cliff Timing

[As happens too often, today’s Iran war update launched before complete. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]

That halt of hostilities did not last long.¹ I expected Israel to defy Trump and again strike Lebanon, but did not expect it to happen this fast, as within the same news cycle in which Trump claimed he told Israel that it was on its own if it hit Lebanon again and incredibly tried denying that Netanyahu had defied him in launching the last round of attacks.

As we will unpack soon, this predictable raised middle finger to Trump hopelessly sinks what little prospect there was of a “deal” even though too many people will keep carrying that corpse around.² Iran needs to have some evidence that the US can constrain Israel. That is simply na ga happen.

As we will also discuss, the considerable discussion of the idea that the Russia and/or China might midwife a new security architecture for the region is way behind the pace of events. The US was able to impose its post World-War II order due to being the dominant industrial power and once-powerful European powers being prostrated (or in the case of the UK, severely depleted) by the war. Iran with its allies, most notably the Houthis, will be able to impose a new order in the region via having sufficient control over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. If they can continue to deny transit to petroleum and gas exporting Gulf nations, it will be able to force them to adopt at least Austria-style neutrality as a condition of passage. That among other things means no US bases.

That is why the US is still trying to impose its blockade and engaging in dust-ups with Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. It is demonstrating that Iran does not sufficiently control the area of the Strait of Hormuz to assure safe passage to the Gulf states that Iran ultimately needs to peel away them from the US. But of course, neither does the US.

The wee problem is that the US has means to continue this standoff after the point when the global economy starts to come apart in a big way. So will Mr. Market or domestic forces get Trump to blink before there is severe and lasting damage?

First to the kinetic updates. From Aljazeera’s live feed, which as of 5:15 PM EDT carries the headline Iran war live: Israel bombs Lebanon after Trump warns Netanyahu to stop:

• US President Donald Trump says he’s in the “final throes” of a peace deal with Iran after a dangerous escalation with Israel and suggests an agreement will be done in days.
• Israeli forces kill eight people in Tyre city after issuing forced displacement orders as it continues deadly attacks on southern Lebanon ignoring Trump’s warning to halt strikes.

Israel officials had already said that attacks would resume soon:

⚡️ Channel 14 Hebrew:
A senior official in the Israeli security system estimates tonight that a return to a violent and intense round of fighting with Iran is a matter of a short time, and may occur within the next few days.
– Maintaining a state of alert and maximum readiness…

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) June 8, 2026

Keep in mind that CNN just reported 37 – that’s how many times Trump has claimed to be close to Iran deal.

Germane entries in the Aljazeera live feed:

• Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, said negotiations between Washington and Tehran have “nothing to do with Lebanon”, accusing Iran of trying to connect the two issues. Speaking to Fox News, Leiter said Israeli operations against Hezbollah are separate from the US-Iran talks and warned that “Lebanon will not have a future if it remains linked to Iran”.
• Analysts say Israel’s decision to launch new strikes on Iran despite Trump’s calls for restraint was intended to signal to the US that no lasting agreement with Tehran can ignore Israeli interests. Military historian Danny Orbach said the strikes were a message to Washington that Israel retains the ability to disrupt negotiations if it believes its security concerns are being overlooked.

Clearly, Iran does not see it that way. As of when this post first went live, there is no report of Iran retaliation but it seems awfully likely. As the The Cradle recapped on Twitter:

Iran says it will no longer wait for threats, declaring new strategic regional defense doctrine
——
Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council chairman Sadeq Larijani said Tehran’s intervention in support of Lebanon constitutes a formal declaration of a new strategic doctrine, under which attacks on any component of the Restance Axis will trigger a response that extends beyond geographical boundaries and reshapes regional equations.

Larijani said Iran has entered a new phase in which it no longer waits for threats to emerge before acting to preserve its regional position, but instead takes the initiative. He also warned that any expansion of the conflict or attack on critical Iranian infrastructure would be met with a comprehensive and deterrent response.

PressTV also warns: Leader’s adviser: Iran will shatter US naval blockade on Hormuz if talks fail. From the story:

Mohsen Rezaei, advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, says Iran remains committed to diplomacy but will not hesitate to decisively break the US naval blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz if negotiations fail.

“At the moment, we are pursuing our goals through negotiations. However, since a naval blockade constitutes a violation of our rights, we do not accept this situation and will definitely break any naval blockade,” Rezaei said in an interview with Russia Today television network aired on Monday…

Iran will not compromise on its right to enrichment

The Russia Today correspondent asked: “What is Iran’s position regarding the US condition to halt uranium enrichment and hand over its enriched uranium stockpiles?”

Rezaei said, “We have enriched uranium within the framework of our international commitments, that is, in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and we will continue to do so in the future.”

He added, “We will not back down from our right to enrichment…”

Rezaei emphasized, “Regarding the enriched uranium reserves, it is the Islamic Republic of Iran that decides in this matter. We will not hand over the enriched material to any person or entity. Therefore, we will not accept any conditions regarding the enriched materials.”

‘Trump is simply incapable of negotiating’

Commenting on US President Donald Trump’s repeated claims about wanting a deal with Iran…He expressed deep skepticism about reaching a genuine agreement with the United States, citing Trump’s well-known inconsistency and subservience to the Zionist regime.

“Mr. Trump does not demonstrate the necessary courage in negotiations”

Another reading on the US-Israel dynamics, before Israel resumed its attack on Lebanon, from the Financial Times in Who calls the shots? Trump and Netanyahu clash over diverging goals:

“I call the shots. I call all the shots. [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots,” Trump exclaimed in an interview with the FT on Sunday. Would Netanyahu ultimately have to accept a deal with Iran? “He won’t have a choice.”…

A US defence official on Monday said American forces had not joined Israel’s attacks on Iran over the previous day, in a sign of Washington’s displeasure at the last strikes on Lebanon and Iran. The official said the US did launch interceptors to defend its troops in Israel, however….

But despite the friction, there is scant indication that Trump is prepared to deploy stronger leverage, such as denying US military aid to Israel…

Polls suggest a majority of Israelis favour continuing the fighting with Iran, with most believing that the country has failed to achieve its goals. A survey by the Institute for National Security Studies last month found only 37 per cent of the population was satisfied with the results so far.

In the “Kill me now” category, see the BBC video, Trump tells BBC Netanyahu did not defy him.

Keep in mind that Trump made his attempts at stand-down orders to Netanyahu over the weekend and then on Monday. That timing means was unlikely to yet have gotten enormous and predictable pushback from the Israel lobby and billionaire Zionists and evangelicals.

On top of that, Israel could still defy the US even if Trump were to do something wildly out of character, which is to show a bit of courage and start to meter down Israel access to intel or weapons supplies. He could also tell the Gulf states to deny Israel use of their airspace (recall that the latest attacks on Iran were from standoff distances, using Iraqi and Saudi airspace).

But Israel was born as a terrorist state and can still fall back on that even if the US were to try to clip its wings.

And dream if Israel will fall into line. It never does, as this anecdote from former CIA officer John Kiriakou, in a talk with Thom Von, illustrates:

From a mildly-cleaned up machine transcript:

Kiriakou: So, the Iraqis have electrical towers like we have everywhere, but ours have four legs and the Iraqis have three legs. So, just a few days before we attacked Iraq, at that time I’m the I’m the executive assistant to the deputy director for operations at the CIA. So, it’s the most serious job I ever had in my life.

Von: So, you have access to a lot.

Kiriakou: Literally everything.

Von: Wow.

Kiriakou: And the Israelis come to us and they said, “Listen, you guys are going to attack Iraq in a couple days. We want in.”

We said “Absolutely not. We put this coalition together with all these Arab countries. As soon as you guys jump in, all the Arabs are going to drop out. Just let us do it.”

Next thing you know, every one of these electrical towers just begins to topple over like 150 miles worth in the Western Desert because somebody put explosives on just one of the three legs.

And I remember my boss saying, “These damn Israelis, they just can’t leave well enough alone.”

“They just don’t ever do as they’re told.”

This Janta Ka segment gave a fine overview of the state of play right before the new strikes. A key section that bears on the current discussion is the full clip of Tom Massie describing the Israel attack on the USS Liberty in detail, starting at 15:15. The details are harrowing:

Trita Parsi³ provided a key bit of information on US perceptions a talk with Owen Jones. Keep in mind that this was recorded before the latest Israel attack on Lebanon:

From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:

Trita: I think there’s some reporting now that suggests that because the Israelis struck at Iranian oil infrastructure, we may already see a closing of uh the Red Sea. The Houthis have also sent missiles towards Israel and they said that they’re going to close that. I don’t know for certain if that is a a finalized decision.

At a minimum, it is something that is being thrown out there as a threat. And that is the attempt again to have escalation dominance. If the Red Sea is closed, that means that uh a significant portion of additional traffic including oil is going to be closed down. It’s going to shoot up oil prices even further. It’s going to create significant problems.

If on top of that, the Iranians start striking at GCC oil infrastructure, particularly against the UAE, in retaliation for what the Irvan Israelis have done, then we’re going to have a production problem, not just a bottleneck problem. And that in of itself is not only going to push up oil prices, it’s going to push up oil prices in a prolonged way.

That is now happening simultaneously with the US side believing that the Iranians actually are having an increased difficulty to close the Strait of Hormuz and that there’s going to be an increase of traffic going through regardless because the Iranians simply don’t have, they’re losing their ability to be able to completely close down all different areas of the Straight of Hormuz. And as a result, there was a degree of optimism on the American side that oil prices actually could be pushed down to $60 a barrel, now instead we’re seeing that as a result of this fighting is now creeping closer to 100.

On the status of the Bab el-Mandeb, in comments on our post yesterday, we pointed to a video clip that showed a Yemini military spokesman saying that strait was closed to Israel. However, that was also translated and thus could have been one of those “running dog enemy” formulations that stood not just for Israel but also its presumed allies. But I don’t see anything yet from a source that looks adequately careful that says that anything other than Israel-connected ships are barred. For instance, Lloyd’s List reports:
Houthis declare ‘total ban’ on Israeli ships in Red Sea as Israel-Iran strikes shatter ceasefire.

And even though there is ample evidence that the US operations in and near the Strait of Hormuz are not going swimmingly (see for instance from Anadolu Agency in Crew rescued after US attack helicopter goes down near Strait of Hormuz), Trump is a binge-watcher of Fox News, and Fox is still loudly proclaiming that the Iran military is just about reduced to fighting with shovels.

The US confidence in Iran’s weakness is bizarre in that the only reason the US navy is still trundling about is that Iran has refrained from doing much more than firing warning shots. Iran is clearly capable of sinking destroyers and aircraft carriers (it might hold off from the latter even if severely provoked due to the resulting contamination). What might induce Iran to stop exercising restraint?

But consistent with the US beliefs about the Iranian not being able to bar ships all that well:

Significant amount of Middle Eastern oil is leaving the Persian Gulf by tanker via the Strait of Hormuz (in addition of the bypass pipelines).

The telltale is the decline over the last few weeks of onshore crude inventories. Plus the surge in STS activity just outside Hormuz. https://t.co/bSjG7Fc4yh

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 9, 2026

However, Javier Blas also believes things that no one credible, from shipping experts to Saudi Aramco executive, believe:

COLUMN: When the day comes, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be extraordinary: restarting about 10,000 oil wells, pumping roughly 15% of the world’s production.

When it happens, it would go quicker than many think: weeks, not months.@Opinionhttps://t.co/oav02e1Rdk

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 8, 2026

See by contrast:

Hormuz traffic remains constrained

Strait of Hormuz transit activity remained constrained over 5 to 7 June, with only eight monitored crossings across commercial and non-commercial traffic. The total was one below the single-day count on 4 June and 14 below the previous weekend,… pic.twitter.com/41cpmoF8Qf

— Kpler (@Kpler) June 9, 2026

We are now turning, a bit late, to an absolutely must-read indictment of Zionism by Alon Mizrahi in Normalize (Voicing) the Demand to End Israel. The text is far more ferocious than his headline. Please read it in full and circulate widely. From the top

Israel is fundamentally, intrinsically, irrevocably, openly evil beyond the wildest fantasies of a non-Zionist human being.

I could end here, but I won’t.

There is no letting anyone off the hook anymore, and I will do whatever I can to not allow it

___

It never, for a single day of its cursed existence (I will not take a neutral tone, and if that’s what you’re looking for, go fuck yourself) (bye), behaved differently. It is measurably becoming insaner, deadlier, and more dangerous for the very existence of a functioning human society everywhere.

It is a colonial, genocidal presence in the middle of human consciousness. It seeks to normalize the worst acts of barbarism in recorded or unrecorded history. It has no shame, no conscience, no remorse, no regret, no obligation to anything and anyone but its dark wishes; it sees itself as beholden to no one, while expecting every living thing to worship and support it for every second of their miserable existence – which is only miserable because nothing humiliates a human like being forced to coexist with open and openly satanic evil; the only thing making it worse is the complicity of an entire human class of Zionist whores in high places, who rule like an alien species over hundreds of millions of people who abhor and detest Israel and Zionism with every fiber of their healthy, beautiful, living soul.

What we should never do is let that class of traitors to humanity think and feel that they can force us into accepting Zionism and all the horrors it connotes by bullying and intimidating the popular majority in every country under the sun.

Again, be sure to take the time to read Mizahi’s essay and publicize it.

Due to this post already being on the long side, we will treat only briefly the final headline topic, the debate over when the oil price cliff will hit. Recall that a clutch of top experts, such as Jeff Currie, as well as executives at Exxon and Chevron, have issued warning that the expect the inventories and reserves that have succeeded so far in buffering the effect of the loss of supply from the Gulf area to hit critically low levels roughly in July, with the result that prices will jump then.

In an indication that there seems a lot of pressure to suppress bad news to protect the Confidence Fairy, I was stunned to learn that jet fuel prices have shot up in many key hubs due to shortages…a fact I have yet to see reported in the mainstream media, even in the affected regions, based on a quick search. Indeed, the in-your-face Google AI agent denies that any such thing is happening.

Jeff Currie thinks we are sleepwalking into one of the biggest commodity shocks since Covid and the market is still pricing it like a headline risk instead of a physical crisis (Save this).

He calls it molecular contagion and last week, jet fuel shortages were concentrated in… pic.twitter.com/fJ9rFuMk9u

— StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) June 6, 2026

From the body of this tweet, based on the Bloomberg News segment:

He calls it molecular contagion and last week, jet fuel shortages were concentrated in Singapore, where prices spiked to roughly 230 dollars a barrel.

This week the same pattern has shown up in Rotterdam at around 220 dollars and in Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, and Australia which means the dislocation has gone intercontinental.

In his words, there is no longer any meaningful spread between Singapore and Rotterdam, no spare barrels to re route, and no policy lever that can solve the problem in the short term.

But oil expert Arthur Berman disagrees with how Currie and HFI Research are reading data. The core of the argument in his, Hormuz: A Logistics Crisis, Not Yet an Inventory Crisis:

I am not disputing that the disruption HFI describes is real. It is. The disagreement is about the rate at which inventories are being depleted. HFI argues that the available buffers are insufficient to prevent U.S. commercial crude inventories from reaching operational minimums in the near future. My reading of the data is different. Current inventory deficits simply do not suggest depletion is occurring fast enough to reach “tank bottom” levels by late July.

The wee problem is that, in addition to the readings of Exxon and Chevron, who will have access to far more data and anecdata than Currie or HFI or Berman could have, is that OilPrice headlines and articles are also taking an alarmist tone. Admittedly, OilPrice has sometimes gotten out over its skis, such as year-past warnings about possible tightness in diesel markets. But its reporters spend all day talking to industry members and its commentators are often in or near the oil biz.

Some headlines from its landing page now:

The Countdown to a Major Oil Price Surge Has Begun

Risks to Red Sea Oil Exports Could Roil Oil Market Further

Morgan Stanley Sees Asian LNG Prices Soaring to 3.5-Year High

Global Economy Is One Oil Price Spike Away From Trouble

Airfares Are Set to Rise Again as the Fuel Crisis Deepens

What is telling is the difference in tone from an industry specialist site compared to weird calm at Bloomberg, the Financial Times, and the Wall Street Journal. Part of this is no doubt the undue faith in oil futures prices, which are no longer reliable indicators:

Spot on: "That tells me @LukeGromen is right, and all the oil traders, who are not admin insiders, are sitting on the sidelines because they are tired of being front-run by insiders, which, to be clear, is not healthy for a market because it effectively acts as a price control." https://t.co/NNNIFxtD7q

— JustDario (@DarioCpx) June 9, 2026

So Berman may be correct, but drawing down inventories to keep prices suppressed is subsidizing consumption when the officialdom should be aggressively trying to discourage consumption, if not by price, then by other means. Perhape the officialdom in a lot of countries will get religion before the crunch hits. But even if so, it strikes me a likely to be too little, too late.

Done for today! See you tomorrow!

_____

¹ For the record, from PressTV in PressTV Iran announces suspension of operations after ‘painful response’ to Zionist regime

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has announced the cessation of military operations against Israel, stating that a “painful response” has been delivered to the Zionist regime in support of the oppressed people of Lebanon.

The headquarters said in a statement on Monday that the halt comes after Iran’s powerful armed forces delivered a response to the “atrocities and mischief” of the “savage Zionist regime” in southern Lebanon and the Dahiyeh district, which were carried out with the support of “criminal America”….

The announcement follows a series of missile strikes by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) on Sunday targeting Israel’s Ramat David Air Base in northern occupied territories.

The IRGC said the operation was in response to Israel’s “widespread crimes” in southern Lebanon, including the killing and displacement of civilians, and that the air base had served as the origin of aggressions against Lebanon.

On Monday, the IRGC struck Israel’s strategic Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases in northern occupied territories after Israeli aggression on several Iranian cities.

Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted that the ceasefire between Iran, the United States and Israel that took effect on April 8 was conditional on a truce on all fronts.

However, Israel, with a US greenlight and the silence of international organizations, has continued its “malicious actions” against the Lebanese people on a daily basis, committing war crimes by using banned weapons, including phosphorus bombs, Iranian officials say.

The headquarters emphasized that while operations have been halted, “much more intense and crushing measures than before” will be taken if aggression and mischief, including in southern Lebanon, continue….

He [Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a senior commander in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and the spokesman of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters] also issued a stark warning to the United States and Israel, saying “criminal America and the brutal Zionist regime must know that a strong and proud Iran and the honorable resistance forces in the region will stand firm under any circumstances and against any threat, and will never bow their heads in surrender to the losing enemies of war”.

“If aggression and mischief continue, they will be dealt with even greater intensity,” he added.

² A cinematic version of what that looks like:

² It is puzzling to see Trita keep saying that Iran is insisting on getting $12 billion of its frozen assets as a condition of entering into the memorandum of understanding when a top Iran official publicly said on June 6 that the price of entry was $24 billion:

Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, told CNN that a potential peace deal between Iran and the United States is currently blocked, and that this deadlock can only be broken by the Trump Administration agreeing to release $24 billion in… pic.twitter.com/kKInFE1hhn

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 5, 2026

Obviously, Trita is hearing something different from his contacts….who are intermediaries, not principals. It is not uncommon in negotiations for those trying to broker a deal to get ahead their principals.