[Today’s Iran war post fired before finished. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
It would be better if I were proven wrong, but it looks as if your humble blogger’s initial prediction that the Iran war would be a test to destruction is proving to be valid. Unfortunately, it is looking more and more like what will be destroyed is the global economy and with it, the living standards of billions.
We were confident that settlement talks would fail due to the Marianas-trench level distance between the negotiating positions of the two sides…even before getting to Israeli determination to scupper any nascent “deal”.
The latest dustup, of the US fabricating an excuse to attack Iran (and even worse, insultingly depicting the bombing as “self defense” and “proportional) and Iran promptly retaliating, shows that all of Trump’s talk about peace deals is merely to keep oil prices at a tolerably bad level. As much as some commentators, such as Robert Barnes, keep saying that Trump wants an exit, his actions scream otherwise, not just his backing of continued attacks on Iran but also his demonization and doubling down on unattainable negotiation positions, like not giving Iran any of its frozen assets at the outset, and demanding that Iran export its “nuclear dust”.
The reality is that Trump’s ego needs plus continued information pollution via Fox News and Zionist insiders plus the fact that the Israel Lobby would eat him alive if he put the choke chain on Israel confirms there will no negotiated settlement. That also means that Trump will not attempt to declare victory and throw up his hands and leave.
We had harbored a smidge of unwarranted hope that the Gulf states would vote for their economic survival and peel away from the US, which would considerably constrain US operations in the theater. Sadly, the latest unwarranted US attacks on Iran produced neither disapproving noises nor denial of use of their airspaces.
So the US plan seems to be to continue a low level of ongoing harassment of Iran, which amounts to extremely high cost political theater. It allow Trump to regularly generate news clips that show that yessiree, the US is in there regularly punching the nose of those bad and intransigent Iranians. It allows him to placate Zionists and Christian evangelicals by Doing Something.
Bizarrely, the US is choosing to wage the sort of conflict that suits Iran best. They have planned and even more important, built up weapons stockpiles based on their plan to wage a long war. Iran recognized decades ago that the US and Israel were not set up to conduct long campaigns. An additional factor operating in Iran’s favor is loss intolerance in the US and Israel.
Now admittedly, there is the not-inconsiderable risk of the current tit-for-tat and Iranian measured pacing of escalation to spiral out of control. Iran has promised ferocious punishment if the US or Israel meaningfully hits its energy infrastructure again, as in assuredly returning world development levels to before the 1930s by taking out Gulf State energy infrastructure and desalination plants.
We’ll unpack the foregoing in more depth soon. But one final concern: recall of late we have been trying to get a handle on when the oil cliff will hit the US, as in when inventories will no longer be able to make up for the loss of energy supplies from the Middle East, and gas and diesel prices in the US will rise suddenly. This cliff effect is important not simply for its impact on the economy and financial markets, but also for its potential to force Trump out of his too-comfortable stasis of not recognizing his monster loss in Iran.
However, seeing Trump use a ridiculous, bogus pretext to again attack Iran should demonstrate beyond all possible doubt that he has no interest in settling the conflict. And than means even if gas prices were to rise to $10.00 a gallon or the US economy were to start to break due to high diesel costs and/or shortages.
Recall that reader Ben Panga, who has a lot of experience with severe narcissists, said that they fear humiliation more than death.
Retreating from the Iran war would crystalize his humiliation. Or to put it in finance terms, it would mark his and the Zionists’ wildly inflated claims to market.
By contrast, continuing to fight allows Trump to pretend that victory can be achieved. I am told Fox News is still running that line, bigly.
Trump would also keep proclaiming that Iran will nuke the US and that he personally is the only one willing to prevent that, and that line that high prices are merely short term pain to achieve that essential end.
I don’t see how anyone can stop Trump if he persists in his present course. America is too geographically and politically fragmented to allow for organized opposition, even before getting to the massive growth of surveillance and Trump building up his ICE brownshirts.
Now to the latest kinetic war events. We had not bothered flagging the downing of an Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz environs since it was not clear how the incident happened and both its operators were unharmed. Trump initially seemed inclined to minimize it (US birds falling into the drink, potentially as a result of friendly fire or mechanical failures, is not a good look).
That did not last long:1
Mind you, this is one friggin’ helicopter and no one died, which given how fragile helicopters are, seems like a vanishingly unlikely outcome if Iran had intended to destroy it.
The IRCG has denied that it attacked the Apache. Professor Mohammed Marandi, at the top of a talk with Daniel Davis, said he had asked two top military officials about the incident. Both said Iran had nothing to do with it. He reaffirmed that position on Twitter:
For the record, Iran did not shoot down the helicopter, and Trump is lying, but the Islamic Republic is more than prepared to teach the Epstein Coalition a lesson. pic.twitter.com/mb5sG4x24c
— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) June 9, 2026
Davis separately debunked the US claims as implausible:
Plus, if a Shahid drone hit a helicopter, it would’ve blown it into a massive fireball, and no one would’ve survived. That both Pilots allegedly walked away without serious injury, implies this was a mechanical failure, or accident, not a shootdown. It is nearly impossible to…
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) June 9, 2026
And Davis elaborated further in a stand-alone talk:
From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
On our show early this morning said that CENTCOM was not responding to anything…But then then things started getting a little bit more strange…..right before one of our shows earlier today and President Trump said that he was informed by the military that the Iranians shot down one of our sophisticated Apache helicopters while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. There were two pilots involved…. So first of all, the president was not clear on what shot it down. Was it small arms fire, machine guns, uh was it in anti-aircraft missile of some sort?…
Well, subsequent in the day, apparently citing sources in the Pentagon, you had CNN and CBS both reporting that it was a Shahed drone. Now, that got my alarm bells flowing because I’m saying it, hang on a second. First of all, a Shahed drone is a point-to-point target. It it you launch it from wherever your origin point is and then it lands at the target it’s sent to. It flies from point A to point B. It doesn’t have any kind of internal navigation that can allow it to go in different directions other than to follow a course…Not designed to hit a moving target. It’s designed to hit a ground target.
And so the idea that these this that a drone that drone in particular is going to be able to hit an AH64 which is one of our most sophisticated helicopters. So one can wonder how is it that they didn’t even know that there was another aircraft in the area. That’s another part that just doesn’t quite add up.
But that this enemy aircraft that can’t maneuver was able to apparently sneak up on an AH64 and then hit it. But then even that doesn’t pass a common sense test. An a Shahed drone has a large warhead on its nose. That’s the whole point of it. It’s a it’s a suicide drone….They have a large explosive warhead in the front. And so if it had hit a helicopter, I promise you the p the pilots would not be safe and unharmed….And even if you just accidentally flew into the flight path, then it’s going to destroy the thing entirely. It’s a huge explosion.
Larry Johnson was similarly skeptical. From Battle of the Missiles — The Apache Scam:
A truly bizarre series of events off the coast of Iran today that in my opinion were entirely provoked, if not staged, by the US. It started with multiple news reports that a US Army Apache helicopter had been shot down in the Persian Gulf but the two pilots emerged unscathed. What the hell was an Apache helicopter doing? The AH-64 Apache is a twin-engine attack helicopter primarily designed for anti-armor warfare, close air support, and armed reconnaissance. Apparently it was conducting reconnaissance. The US claims that Iran shot it down, but Iran insists it did no such thing.
I am bothered by the claim it was shot down… If the rocket or bullets had hit the cockpit or damaged the main rotor, the craft would have plunged into the water and the pilots would not have survived. So what happened? Was one of the twin engines damaged but still able to function? Was the rear rotor damaged? Those are the only two scenarios I can imagine that would not have caused a catastrophic crash. Once the helo landed in the water, the pilots had to open the canopy and jump into the water. Hopefully the main rotor — assuming it was intact when the copter hit the water — shattered on impact. Otherwise, the pilots would have been shredded trying to escape.
But Trump’s obviously thin pretext was done one better by CENTCOM:
Indeed, the response was proportional with Israeli characteristics:
United States central command claimed that this attack was “proportional“ to the allegation that Iran took down a single Apache helicopter. And yet here we are, 20 targets attacked.
In what universe is that “proportional“?
And then the idea “if Iran retaliates…“ I doubt… https://t.co/wnGviDGaIS
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) June 10, 2026
More on the US strikes:
🇮🇷🇺🇸Middle East war update
– American attacks today 6/9/2026
– In response to the IRGC shooting down a US AH- 64 Apache Helicopter the Americans have struck the following towns/ cities of Bandar Abbas, Ahvaz, Sirik, Bandar-e- Jansk, Jam, Nahavand, and they also carried out… pic.twitter.com/jOVkcNOppd— WarMapper🇺🇸 (@CKMapss) June 10, 2026
And self-defense? Puhleeze.
Some unconfirmed reports on the Iranian response. Taking out two Reapers would be a meaningful cost to the US:
During the US attack on Iran tonight, the United States lost 2 highly sophisticated MQ-9 Reaper drones over Iranian airspace, with their combined value estimated $80 million. pic.twitter.com/nHf7HRGKxw
— Current Report (@Currentreport1) June 10, 2026
And:
The New York Times reports that "nearly all" Iranian missiles and drones were intercepted, suggesting there were some impacts. pic.twitter.com/QCZyRbocy3
— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) June 10, 2026
More detail from Aljazeera’s live feed on the US attacks and the Iran response:
Iran warns of more attacks if US strikes continue
President Donald Trump spoke about Iranians shooting down an Apache helicopter. The Iranian deputy foreign minister denied that the attack on the helicopter was deliberate.
The IRGC has published several statements confirming that Jask and Sirik have been targeted by the US, with a telecommunications tower in Sirik among the sites impacted.
In response, the IRGC says it has conducted drone attacks on US assets and bases across the region, with naval forces also reported to have carried out attacks on US assets.
The IRGC has spoken about additional attacks, including on four significant targets, among them F-35 fighter jet hangars at a US base and a command and control centre in Jordan.
Overall, the message from Iran is twofold: First, condemning the US attacks, and second, warning that if the attacks continue, further responses will follow.
Nevertheless, most experts assessed the speedy Iran punch back as proportional rather than escalatory.
Some readers yesterday expressed their frustration as to why Iran was participating in negotiations and not hitting the US and Israel much harder. First, as we indicated above, a slower, longer war will bleed out US and Israel will and materiel must more cost effectively than a hotter war. If the talks serve as a device for Trump and his allies to grift massively via market manipulation2 and thus incentivize them to keep the conflict at a lower level of intensity, so be it. There is no cost to Iran as long as it is not lulled into a sense of complacency.
Second, a slower pace, which the negotiation theater facilitates, also lowers the odds of extremely bad outcomes like the US attacking Iran energy infrastructure (as in move to one of its few remaining higher rungs on the escalation ladder) which would lead Iran to destroy most Gulf state energy assets, either directly or by destroying desalination plants. It also should reduce the likelihood of escalation to nuclear attacks. Experts have repeatedly said that any use of nuclear weapons, even the much-ballyhooed tactical nuke, quickly becomes a global conflagration.
Third, both the Aljazeera and Guardian live feeds featured statements from Russia and China urging the combatants to exercise restraint. So it is not hard to imagine that both of Iran’s important backers want Iran to keep up with the largely fictional talks in the remote hope that something breaks on the US side.3
Several commentators, such as Matthew Hoh and Robert Pape, have argued that the US and Iran could continue in a moderately intense tit-for-tat on an extended basis. Both Hoh and Pape peculiarly overlooked that the global economy would fall apart if that continued for all that long, since Strait of Hormuz traffic would remain chocked.
Douglas Macgregor, who knows Trump personally, made similar observations in a new talk with Glenn Diesen.
From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
We have an insoluble problem in the Persian Gulf. There’s no easy way for Donald Trump and his administration and Washington to escape from the trap of self-destruction.
We started this. We can’t win it, so we’re leaving. Well, that means you lost. Yes, we lost. But it’s better to lose now than drag this tragedy out for many more months. But that’s exactly what we are positioned to do.
And you have the same group of people that want to maintain this blockade and keep the war with Iran at a low boil in Washington and in Israel. And they are the same people that want to keep things going in Ukraine. Even if it means no real change, no real reversal of any kind, because they all know the war, as far as Ukraine is concerned, is lost militarily. They’re just banking that Putin will sit there and simmer. So they’ll sit and simmer. So we’re simmering quietly in Ukraine, simmering quietly, not so quietly, but we’re simmering in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman. And things just get worse.
You know, the Houthis just said that the Red Sea is now blocked to Israel and all friends of Israel. That helps the the global economy enormously, doesn’t it?
So, you know, there’s no end in sight.
There’s no imminent agreement because President Trump and his friends cannot back down…
And what have we heard from President Trump? When someone brings up the economy and the impact on the American, I don’t care about that.
He was very, very straightforward. He didn’t hesitate. He came back later and said, well, that’s not really what I meant.
He said exactly what he meant.
And while you were busy watching the US and Iran exchange blows, the Lebanon front remains hot. Iran may have held back its fire with the US because it intends to smite Israel again, which is something neither the US nor Israel cope with well. Again from the Aljazeera live feed:
Heavy fighting between Hezbollah and Israeli forces in Lebanon
The early morning hours were very intense in terms of the number of Israeli air strikes around the city of Tyre that resulted in deaths.
A wave of missile strikes targeted the town of Tayr, which is just outside of Tyre city, and there was another strike on the Palestinian refugee camp al-Bas.
Here in Tyre artillery shelling hasn’t stopped throughout the night. We’ve also heard exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israeli troops.
Hezbollah said targeted Israeli soldiers in the town of Bayada in the southwestern front. The Lebanese armed group also targeted troops in the town of Khiam just in the past hour or so.
Hezbollah also announced a new operation against Israeli forces in the Nabatieh district where the fighting continues after Israeli troops took the high ground around Beaufort Castle.
Israel’s military is also intensifying attacks on Niha, north of the Litani River, trying to take more ground in eastern of Lebanon.
And more seems likely to come:
The war between Iran and Israel is coming soon. Nothing to do with the US helicopter downing. Israel rejects the Iranian ROE and will attack the suburb of Beirut soon to trigger Iran's retaliation.
All in my latest article.
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 9, 2026
This ought to be comic relief save for the stakes in lives and infrastructure:
🇺🇸🇮🇱⚔️🇱🇧🇮🇷 Israeli media: “The stubbornness of the Iranians and Hezbollah has indeed proven to us last year that we are facing unexpecting enemies.”
“It is difficult to subdue the Iranians and Hezbollah as they possess a very high capacity for endurance.”
“The Israeli Army…
— dana (@dana916) June 10, 2026
On the real economy front, warnings keep coming in on the further draining of reserves:
This puts Cushing right around 21k with operational limit claimed to be at 20k, so 1 week left. https://t.co/luEbpbj4rx
— 471TO (@TOzgokmen) June 9, 2026
From the largest oil trader in the world. https://t.co/fHLbsWIeA8
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) June 10, 2026
Oil strategists keep raising alarms over shrinking oil reserves. Carlyle's Jeff Currie: "It is robbing Peter to pay Paul -liquidating the buffer built over decades to suppress the very price signal that would trigger the investment response the mkt needs" https://t.co/tXF2pWyUo6 https://t.co/whq2xJKnKK
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 10, 2026
However, again confirming the difficulty of getting a good reading, some sources claim that more fuel is getting out of the Persian Gulf than the reported movement of ships would lead you to believe. From Gulf News in Oil holds near $92: ‘Ghost’ tankers ease nerves amid rising US-Iran military clashes
Global oil prices remained elevated but relatively stable on Wednesday after fresh US military strikes on Iran heightened tensions in the Middle East, suggesting traders remain cautious but are not yet pricing in a worst-case disruption to global energy supplies….
Recent research from JPMorgan suggests visible commercial traffic through the strait remains far below pre-war levels, yet significant volumes of oil continue moving through “ghost” ships, unofficial channels and alternative export routes, helping prevent a severe supply shock.
Energy markets appeared to reflect that assessment Wednesday.
Gasoline futures climbed 0.51% and heating oil gained 0.24%, while US natural gas slipped 0.73%.
Among regional crude benchmarks, Murban crude, a key Middle Eastern grade exported from the United Arab Emirates, fell nearly 4% to $88.24 per barrel, while Mars crude, a major US Gulf Coast benchmark, dropped more than 3% to $110.04.
By contrast, there are still many many vessels still bottled up in the Gulf, when to get adequate energy and cargo shipments, there needs to be a good level of two-way traffic. From Lloyd’s List in Quarter of mainstream tankers have exited Gulf but over 160 ships still marooned:
- More than 160 mainstream tankers have remained stranded in the Middle East Gulf for over 100 days since hostilities began in late February
- While some 25% of the tankers present at the start of the crisis have managed to leave, departures have slowed significantly of late
_____
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Donald Trump was not convinced of the need to retaliate against Iran after the Apache Helicopter went down earlier on Tuesday. He spent much of the day playing down the incident, telling reporters that it wasn’t a big deal.
But according to the WSJ, his mind was changed after a briefing from defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Dan Caine.
The Associated Press has reported that the Apache helicopter that crashed went down after colliding with an Iranian drone. It is not clear whether the collision was intentional, but US officials reportedly told the president that the attack merited a response nonetheless.
Trump would then go on to say that Iran shot down the helicopter, in a post on Truth Social, and declared that the US must “respond to this attack.” Hours later the US began the strikes on Iran.
2 The financial press is still selling settlement hopium hard, as this Bloomberg landing page screenshot illustrates:
3 I know for someone like me, well removed from the front row, to question reporters like Jeremy Scahill, who speaks directly to Iranian official, may seem presumptuous. But I am at a loss to understand how he cannot see that these negotiators who keep regularly telling him that a deal is near do not see that they are pulling on levers that are not connected to anything. Or perhaps at best they do not want to be accused of spiking a “deal” by getting Trump pissed off via contradicting his patter. See the first half of this show for a long-form illustration.
Having said that, the second part of this show is very informative. The two guests are experts on maritime law and treaties and explain long-form that Iran is seeking to rely on transit rules it has consistently advocated for and existed before UNCLOS was “innocent passage” which gives state like Iran some ability to regulate, particularly in the name of security, as opposed to the UNCLOS regime of “transit passage,” which does not.
Done for today! See you tomorrow!
‘Daniel Davis Deep Dive
@DanielLDavis1
United States central command claimed that this attack was “proportional“ to the allegation that Iran took down a single Apache helicopter. And yet here we are, 20 targets attacked.’
Trump & Co. looking for any excuse to attrite the Iranians and hope that they do not hit back that hard. Sort of like what was done to Iraq over many years until that country was hollowed out. It would be one thing if these were military targets but instead it included civilian targets such as ‘two water reservoirs in the Bomani district of Sirik country, temporarily cutting off water supplies.’ Not sure but I think that that counts as a war crime. Luckily the US has Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of War Crimes to lead the way-
https://news.antiwar.com/2026/06/09/trump-says-us-must-respond-after-us-apache-helicopter-shot-down-near-iran/
From MoA commenter ‘Watcher’:
“Thought people might be interested in the “tale” about the helicopter from the ABC today
Here goes:
There was an Iranian shahed missile going somewhere in the Gulf not to a US asset
There was a US helicopter nearby
The guys in the helicopter thought it might be an idea to shoot at the missile
They “accidentally” set of the charge in the missile which exploded
Helicopter was too close and was hit by debris
guys ejected and were rescued by a sea based drone and then by another helicopter”
end MoA.
Sounds plausible to me and suggests the pilot and gunner made a huge mistake not considering blast effects of firing tracers into a suicide drone.
Iran is making a big deal of the war crime of destroying drinking water infrastructure!
Plausible, but also supports the MIC agenda that our weapon systems are invincible, but may our soldiers are not. Don’t want potential customers questioning our weapon superiority when there’s a couple grunts that can be thrown under the bus.
Checked wiki. AH 64 has no ejection system. Rotors are dangerous and accidents happen no chance an accident could blow rotor blades.
Apparently the doors have emergency open system,
Listening to Daniel Davis’ Deep Dive[1] with Larry Johnson … with clips from Trump’s typical heavy-lidded explanation: a Shahed drone lodged in the helo “between the two pilots” (therefore on the side of the airframe, as pilots sit en enchelon for-aft, not side-by-side), but somehow didn’t explode … and the pilots were then rescued by an unmanned boat traveling at incredible speeds …
JFC. The whole fabrication is too ridiculous … SMH
US and its MSM has zero credibility. Zero. Just Lies.
[1] Followed his podcast with Alastair Crooke — really worth watching.
I don’t suppose many Americans are going to be visiting the holy land this year – circling indirectly back to another early NC call.
You’d be surprised, I have a FB friend who was robo-posting pics of her daughter’s recent trip to the holy land.
These folks tend to be hidebound in their subservience to Israel and their idolization of Zionism, putting them in direct violation of the first commandment from Exodus:
“You shall have no other gods before me” Exodus 20:1-17
No doubt they’re having to shell out a lot more $, and possibly fly through multiple airports on multiple airlines to get there. I checked Delta’s website, and there are no flights offered to Tel-Aviv in June. There are some in July, but the cheapest I could find is around $2400.
Knowing some of these religious hypocrites, they worship the “prosperity gospel” so they may have the money to blow on such a junket.
Based on Christian Zionist members of my family, war or unrest won’t stop them. If anything happens, good or bad, they declare “God’s will! Hallelujah!”
Interestingly, that roughly translates to “Allahu Akbar!”
There’s no end to humans’ ability to obsess over their imaginary gods.
In Trump’s first term the global economy was shut down… and the US money supply was quadrupled in two months… between March and May 2020. Because there was a liquidity crisis.
The same type of crisis is happening now… largely due to AI being a black hole for cash. They can’t print any more because the USD is devalued as far as it can without going full Weimar.
Trump is purposefully shutting down the economy… problem… launch CBDC’s and/or digital currencies… solution… so the system can continue to be manipulated by those who created the problem.
That’s my two cents.
I have to disagree. 2020 was due to an external crisis, covid; not some internally driven liquidity crisis. The money supply increased from the extreme fiscal reaction to support the economy at that time.
Currently, spending on AI is driven by corporate cash flows and borrowing. There may be a borrowing constraint for corporations, but a general “liquidity crisis” can’t happen unless the Fed decides to restrict liquidity via raising the overnight bank funding rate. Lastly, the dollar index is actually up ytd.
I’ll disagree as well… Covid was created to cover for the market meltdown… there is no Covid.
The overnight repo market crashed on Sept. 17, 2019… right after that Covid showed up.
Our overarching comments rule is:
On top of that, we do not tolerate those who pollute with comments section with abject fabrications, both your first one and this one.
You put your foot in mouth and chewed with Covid denisalism and them repo panic hyping. The repo panic was a nothingburger, caused by the Fed never having managed monetary operations during an interest rate tightening cycle with its stupid unnecessary bank subsidizing interest on reserves system (as opposed to traditional NY money market desk operation). This was 100% a Fed cock up which it quickly corrected.
Catherine Austin Fitts has the same opinion.
From Gregg Hunter on Rumble:
Economy Floating on Many Non-Sustainable Games – Catherine Austin Fitts
https://rumble.com/v7axcpy-economy-floating-on-many-non-sustainable-games-catherine-austin-fits.html
> Mind you, this is one friggin’ helicopter and no one died, which given how fragile helicopters are, seems like a vanishingly unlikely outcome if Iran had intended to destroy it.
Yes, and I’d go further. CENTCOM’s form so far has been that when Iran does land a lick they deny it and blame anything but Iran: friendly fire, pilot error, mechanical, laundry…
I had the exact same thought. Immediately I knew this wasn’t an Iran attack because the US was claiming it was. Down is up. Peace is war…
Gulf of Tonkin II ?
You have to be careful with this. Just because everything the US says in wartime is propaganda does not mean they always lie. Sometimes it serves their interests better to tell the truth.
(Learned this lesson when I assumed, wrongly, that the 2022 reports of Russia being about to invade Ukraine were a lie).
Along with “sometimes reasonable initial assessments turn out to be incorrect.” I also would distinguish between propaganda and intentional efforts to mislead the other side – that whole Sun Tzu “appear strong when you are weak” and all that.
That said, I’ve found that I have reasonably good luck by starting with the presumption that anything the US says that’s favorable to its preferred narrative is a lie. Sure, I’ve been mistaken in that presumption now and again, but I have a waaaay better track record regarding accuracy than, say, the American MSM. Or Congress.
The real question relating to the US/Iran War is not whether “the deal” is coming or not, it is what happens after the world goes over the waterfall. Oil spikes, demand destruction, bond yields up, equities crash out, global recession/depression. Will there be a deal at that point? It is important to consider how little anything changes for political decision-makers if these conditions emerge. Trump will still need a “victory” that allows him to save face, Iran will still need a victory that results in the political destruction and humiliation of Trump, Israel is going to be Israel even if Bibi is out with its revisionist and expansionist goals in the region.
Global economic catastrophe will likely increase political pressure on Trump to end the war, and the war will be more unpopular with the public, but he will still be beholden to the Lobby, as will be the rest of DC, and further, the US imperial project is basically on the line in this conflict, and he will be under massive pressure not to walk away from the conflict from the Mike Pompeo and Victoria Nuland-types in the US foreign policy establishment (and their friends in Congress). Yes, its possible that the Dems will sweep in the midterms, but they are equally beholden to the Lobby so I wouldn’t expect any non-performative action to shut down the Iran war. Exhibit 1 would be Hillary Clinton’s public statements on this war. Further, in the absence of a protracted ground war and conscription, its unlikely that the unpopularity of the war necessarily leads to a level of public unrest where decision-makers feel compelled to “do something.”
This conflict could go on for years, and at some point, the economic pain will get resolved gradually through alternative production and transportation, through electrification and alternative energy, etc., so if it goes long enough, the GCC ends up economically marginal in the world economy, and the economic pressure ultimately diminishes on the US to get out. If the US government can keep a lid on the civil unrest until the economic pain subsides, they can continue the game and maybe convince themselves that they can win. If you put yourself in the shoes of an American Imperialist, this war is existential to the Empire, you are confident that you are better than Iran, and that you can wear them down if you just keep up the pressure like Syria. From this perspective, the economic impact of the war becomes a subject for population management and psyops, not a rationale for ending the conflict. Your biggest issue is securing rare earths and other materials from China to keep up your MIC production (and maybe China wants to sell if the US cuts arms sales to Taiwan and pledges to use the materials for another endless war in the ME). I think people may need to start thinking of this conflict in terms of maybe a decade or two, instead of months or even years.
The issue with the idea that the US can win a long war because electrification and alternative energy supplies will keep the global economy from totally collapsing is that the economic power of the US is based on controlling oil and finance. If green energy becomes the norm, that money is all flowing to China not the US, and the US loses its leverage on the control of the energy supply to countries around the world. Who manufactures transformers, switchgears, transfer switches, solar panels, wind turbines, nuclear reactors, and all the support and grid equipment to run them? It’s not American companies.
Additionally, on the kinetic side of the material ledger, the more back and forth exchanges like this recent one, the more precious standoff weapons the US and Israel use which take far longer to replace than to use, even in a slow simmering fight.
There is no way the US wins in a long war here. Either the US accepts that it lost and leaves, whatever form that takes, or this conflict drastically accelerates the end of US global dominance.
But the US doesn’t need to be able to win a long war here, and there is no claim made that they will. US decision-makers just need to convince themselves that there is a plausible story that the US is able to win a long war here. We are talking about people like Trump, Hegseth, General Keane and Lindsey Graham. Look at Robert Kagan–he says “Trump lost” but his solution is to come back with a protracted ground war. The US Establishment’s solution to the failure of military force is always to escalate with more military force. Then when that doesn’t work and it gets shut down, they blame the loss on the failure of a will to fight and use of kid gloves. This is a continuation of the same Establishment that spent 10 years+ in Vietnam, for what? Even if the US had won in Vietnam, would it have even mattered on the margins?
I believe “Trump wants a deal on this war,” e.g. Trump would probably settle for a return to the status-quo-ante on Feb. 27, 2026, with some kind of symbolic gesture on nukes to save face. But Iran is never going to give him the terms he wants, and Israel and their domestic friends are never going to allow a deal. So it is reasonable that the world goes over the cliff, but once that happens, there is very little to prevent the belligerent parties from continuing. People will endure great economic hardship to prevail in a conflict, especially when the decision-makers will be mostly insulated from the consequences (and probably profiting off insider trading) and have all kinds of tools available to keep the population in line.
I don’t mean to come down on you, but “What about global depression” don’t you understand?
We will have that, plus large scale famine, well before mid 2027, if traffic in the Strait is not at least at 50% of old normal by then.
I think there should at least be an open question of whether a global depression would actually stop the American/Israeli war machine, especially when the world empire is on the line.
I guarantee that Trump and Bibi could give two $#!+$ about people starving in Africa because of their quest for World Domination. Look at what they did to Gaza. These governments can print money, even in a depression, they won’t disband the army and navy, it seems like they can keep the war on, provided they can manage their own domestic populations. Would putative democracy be a casualty of war? Perhaps, but I doubt you would see Bibi and Trump in tears over that outcome.
I don’t think you remotely comprehend what a global depressions would look like, particularly in our modern world with its extreme fragility due to widespread adoption of just in time practices.
The risk of going back to 1930s standards of living is real if Iran destroys Gulf energy infrastructure on a large scale basis.
Even if things to not go that far, It would break global supply chains and lead to the failure of many many businesses.
There would be mass unemployment and unrest.
Disease rates would spike due to the breakdown of public health and great rise in the number unable to pay for care.
It would be impossible for the US to prosecute a meaningful war ex in defense, on its own territory, in conditions like that.
The US was not a serious military power during our own Great Depression. We were able to serve as the arms factory to the Allies in World War II by being the leader in automobiles, which enables us to play a particularly role in tank and vehicle manufacture, as well as other weapons. Manufacture was more general purpose then, so it was not hard to convert a job shop to military production.
I live in a small mountain town in Vermont. It is sparsely populated-I think there is around 350 dwellings and approximately one half of the houses here are second homes.
Every home has its own well and septic system. About half the town has fiber internet. we have grid-tied solar panels, but don’t know how many others do. Like much of Vermont, we do not have any law enforcement. I don’t have and have never had a key to my house. What would be the point of locking your doors when a burglar could chainsaw through a wall without being noticed.
The town is in a curious river-less valley with entry in and out mostly limited to the north and south ends.
The town is in a food desert and the nearest thing to a grocery store is about 10 miles away and caters mostly to the well-heeled who come during ski season and holidays. Unsurprisingly their prices are higher than other, more distant stores.
So what happens in a place like this if the consequences of the war on Iran become dystopian and people resort to whatever they must to stay alive. If it happens I’d expect that to start earlier and become more awful in large cities. So will the folks owning these second homes here in VT decide that retreating here will be the best place to ride it out? How long will that be? Can we imagine there wont be any going back?
There’s a lot of towns here in VT like mine with lots of second home owners, but would they be better off here? They could be physically safer but the nearest medical care is miles away and so is the nearest pharmacy. Here’s what the state says about the EMS:
“Vermont’s Emergency Medical Services face significant challenges that compromise effectiveness and sustainability. Access to EMS varies widely across the state, with inconsistent service delivery, response times, and reliability from town to town. The system struggles with increasing call volumes that strain capacity, while emergency and non-emergency interfacility transportation remains unreliable in parts of the State.”
How can a town like mine plan for the possibility that people do retreat here? What can we expect and what should be expected of us?
My guess is that high oil price arriving in summer driving season will push the us into recession – which won’t bother trump or Zionists – but a market crash would bother trump and his oligarchs big time. And my further guess that this crash will be at least as big as dot com, fueled not just by overvalued low/no income ai and related corps but also by crashing demand from record energy… granted that brings low prices but it takes time; oil continued rising for the first 9 months, or halfway through the GR market crash before reaching its record mid 2009. Plus total us margin debt reached another record at 1.3T in April, that’s an avalanche of selling primed to go, we maybe saw some Friday.
So, how much stomach does trump and his cronies have if the market drops 20%? 30%? That doesn’t hurt the bottom half, it’s concentrated in the top 10%.
“Establishment that spent 10 years+ in Vietnam, for what?”
1) MIC spending and profits
2) It killed the LBJ administration’s “Great Society” spending plans.
3) Other international financial and social networks of power and control were being built at the same time that are currently running wild.
4) Vietnam ultimately integrated into the current economic order – no matter what name they want to give to their system
“But the US doesn’t need to be able to win a long war here, and there is no claim made that they will. US decision-makers just need to convince themselves that there is a plausible story that the US is able to win a long war here.”
Once the world economy goes over the cliff, there will be chaos and devastation on a global scale.
1) The USA and its NATO allies have been exhausting their arsenals supporting Ukraine against Russia, Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah, and fighting Yemen and Iran; there will not be enough ammunition, vessels, aircraft, vehicles, and soldiers left to secure their geopolitical and economic interests once simultaneous crises erupt everywhere. Many of those 750 bases the USA scattered all over the world will become death traps for those manning them.
2) Once the entire world is in trouble, getting the raw materials and components required to develop “alternative production and transportation, through electrification and alternative energy” will become exponentially more difficult and more expensive. For instance, forget about the copper from Zambia, the cobalt from Papua, the tantalum from Congo, the uranium from Niger, the nickel from Indonesia, the zinc from India… Yes, something will still make its way out — but contraband in a collapsed state does not substitute for well-regulated industrial flows from a stable polity (especially with maritime, aerial, and land-based transport networks crippled because of the lack of fuel). Hence, the USA will not be able to rise again slowly while it still trades blows with Iran.
Also imagine the grapes of wrath times ten – tens of millions of hungry armed americans drifting across the country. That glorious military will be back home to fight the civil war. And hungry people have nothing to lose. And the oligarchy know they are outnumbered. are they really willing to relocate to New Zealand (with no tech)? or will they re-organize the US govt to avoid their asses getting caught in an internal war (aka the Russian Revolution – or French Revolution or ??)
I think the key to the duration of this mess is dependent on the Muslim nations’ decisions. They’re stuck with the “Devil You Know” mindset and as long as they side with USrael the current status quo can continue. By status quo I mean that the USrael side can continue their foolish adherence to a negotiated end while clinging to terms that they know will never work. How ironic is it that bin laden did what he did in order to get the US out of the ME, yet his brethren are the ones who continue to want to “work with us” while the US works against them. Seriously, I’ll never understand how it can be that there is not a super majority in the Muslim world that can see that Israel is the problem and the only way the problem goes away is if the US is out of the region? With the US out, Israel is no longer the problem and the only way that the US is out is if the Muslims agree and cut their ties. I know, easier said than done. But compared to having to deal with USrael it’s a no brainer.
There always has been a super majority in the Muslim world that sees that Israel is the problem. Hasn’t meant anything then, doesn’t mean anything now, because what the majority sees doesn’t make the decisions. ($$$ does)
And if the magic spell of super copium ends, GCC infrastructure gets smoked (Iran can do this, of course), and the price of oil begins to really move… reaching 200 by, for example, the beginning of October?
There is no real incentive for the US to keep this up for even a year.
Unlike Afghanistan, there’s no opium for the CIA coffers. Now they have crypto and AI scams for funding.
An event that could radically change the current dynamic would be the removal/end of either Trump or Nuttyahoo. This may be an ultra-simplistic scenario, given the entrenched interests and parties involved in both the USA and the Zionist state. BUT, because both of these two creatures are extravagantly outsized figures, with the support of a minority of the population, the successor(s) would at least have the opportunity to claim “it was all his fault”. An opportunity that might not be seized, but would at least be available.
Taco has gone off his meds, again:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602120-trump-warns-iran-will-pay-the-price-says-new-strikes-remain-on-the-table
(emphasis mine)
Gee, what happened to yesterday’s false and misleading statement that we’d have a deal in “two or three days?”
A lying liar who lies, lies, lies ™!!!!
How about “Ultimate American President”? (with “ultimate” understood in the sense that JRB was “penultimate”.)
Here he is again with the Praise be to Allah. Unreal.
Trump is too busy worrying whether his ballroom and UFC fighting event will be cancelled to also take time to fret about Americans and their standard of living. Narcissus gazes into the pool and only sees himself.
But I would think other Republicans would be worrying about their own jobs. Even we cynics have started voting again, because however bad the Dems are they are still preferable to a party that can willingly back up the lunatic.
Trump will also be thinking of the FIFA Word Cup which stars in a few hours time so that he can claim credit for it being the most successful in history. All the stories that I am reading say that it is going to be anything but. Oh, well. In a few days time he will be able to watch that cage match on the White House lawns for his 80th birthday which should distract him.
Is there a prediction market wager for trump falling asleep at the match?
Note to the eventual winning team: if he poses with you for a photo, DO NOT hand him the Cup. If you do, you’re not getting it back.
All done! Please refresh this page and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment.
An alternative explanation for the Apache loss is debris collision after a “successful” intercept of a Shahed drone. The AH-64 has the speed to overtake a slow drone and its cannon can destroy it. The problem is miscalculation of the safe engagement distance. If the drone warhead explodes and the helicopter is too close, it will fly into the debris cloud. The Apache helicopter is armored, but the engines can ingest debris that will damage them and require an emergency landing. This scenario fits the account of the incident being a “collision.”
This sounds very likely and plausible, the not a good look for the Apache pilots if this becomes the accepted explanation in military circles.
I’m always surprised there hasn’t been a big project to protect jet engine intakes from foreign objects. Seems like it’s a huge threat to all types of jet powered aircraft, which are prone to sucking in birds, sand, volcanic ash, hailstones, heavy rain, objects from the runway, and perhaps airborne debris from nearby explosions. Jet engines are otherwise so reliable that this seems to be one of the big remaining reasons for in-flight engine failure.
I realize this would not be super simple given the air demands of a jet engine.
According to the information above, “the AH-64 Apache is a twin-engine attack helicopter primarily designed for anti-armor warfare, close air support, and armed reconnaissance”.
In other words: to shoot at ground targets — not to engage aircraft.
If this story about firing at an Iranian drone that subsequently exploded is correct, then the pilots used their helicopter for a task it is neither supposed, nor designed to fulfil, and for which they were probably not trained on that model. Given the outcome, does this entail a demotion, a dishonorable discharge, or even a court-martial?
“…the pilots used their helicopter for a task it is neither supposed, nor designed to fulfil, and for which they were probably not trained on that model.”
Necessity is the mother of invention!
Have you never watched MacGyver or Star Trek? (Jordie: “Captain, I have reconfigured the warp core transducer and linked it to the proton torpedoes so they can emit a pulse beam of gamma radiation directed to the exhaust ports of the Borg vessel. It should render their defenses inoperable for a period of up to 7 seconds, which will give us enough time to beam a response team into the Borg’s engineering room.” Captain Picard: “Good work, Jordie!”)
They might get medals.
“Photon” torpedoes. Your nerd card is hereby revoked, despite the high quality of the rest of the trekblather. :-)
Or Dr. Who and his infamous “reverse the polarity,” which was lampooned in the Day of the Doctor when 10 states that the two Doctors trying to both “reverse the polarity” of a timewarp were just “confusing the polarity.”
But military gear gets repurposed all the time, often to good effect. The British in the Zulu Wars were issued ammunition in crates that required special screwdrivers to open … or carefully applied rifle bayonets (the History Channel video on the search to prove that was excellent).
TOW missiles (Tube launched Optically tracked Wire guided – put the crosshairs there and that’s where she goes!) are teh suxor as anti-tank weapons because tanks have a nasty habit of moving … but the things are awesome as bunker busters. Seventeen and a half pounds of high explosive through the front window gives the inhabitants a lot of things to think about besides shooting at you.
And C4 makes for a decent ration heater – just don’t try and stamp it out after you’re done using it. ;-)
Well, maybe a court martial to determine culpability in the loss of the aircraft.
Well, a dishonorable discharge (though I’m pretty sure warrants don’t get “discharges”) can only be awarded by a general court martial, likewise reduction in rank for a warrant, but if the ROE allows for operations (and I assume it would) then the aircrew is to be commended for their initiative. Guess what? In war things get shot down or crash or whatever.
The real news is that CTF-59 apparently has these Corsair ASV operating in the straits and I imagine they were not designed nor trained for CSAR but they did it anyway.
If you come from the right family, losing an aircraft or two who result in no punishment and perhaps even a run for President–think John McCain, who lost two aircraft.
That’s my suspicion too. In other scenarios, like direct collision or a shoot-down, crew survival is far less likely. Ukrainians and Russians have been using helicopters to hunt drones with great success, so it wouldn’t be surprising that US is doing the same.
This happened repeatedly to overly-enthusiastic Ukrainian pilots early in their war when it seems like there were maybe 50 of those guys left.
Maybe they learned, but it actually would take some excellent gunnery for a fighter to shoot down a target this small and slow down safely, given their far higher minimum airspeed. It’d be far easier for helicopter that can easily fly up from behind one, only to have this problem.
I question Col. MacGregor’s confident assertion that DJT’s “I don’t care” rhetoric was “exactly what he meant”.
My perception is that it is nearly impossible to discern what DJT means in any verbal emission. The emissions seem to be tuned to the specific situation in which he finds himself. Challenged about the economic and financial problems facing the people who voted for him, and presumably not wanted to engage with that intractable problem, he deflected the question with a glib remark. Does he actually not care (not even in a political self-interest sense)? I think it’s impossible to know.
Look at Trump’s actions, not his words. In this case they align- it’s clear that he couldn’t care less.
Spot on (and can apply to any pol, really.) Trump has his own reality distortion field, but he also occasionally accidentally lets a truth slip through. In this case, his actions are consistent with him not caring a whit about the economic impact of his war to average Americans. I think his “I don’t care” statements are the most truthful things he’s said to the public during this whole affair.
Trump is actually one of the most ‘honest’ presidents ever.
As many leftist writers have said, he is the epitome or apex of the US system, not just a symptom. For the most part, he has laid bare the graft, kleptocracy and greed all others before tried to hide. Prior to Reagan, they took great pains to keep it all hidden. Hell, maybe that’s why MSM ‘reporters’ don’t bother being journalists anymore.
He does lie all the time, especially on trivial matters, but I think he honestly believes most of them, the pathology shining through.
May CPI comes in smoking hot, at 4.2% YoY:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602138-cpi-read-airfares-spike-27-in-may-as-higher-jet-fuel-costs-factor-in
Airfares up 27%!
Next week’s Fed meeting with “Too late” Warsh at the helm ought to be a scream.
And average hourly earnings (from the employment report last Friday) were up only 3.4%, the second straight month of negative real earnings according to Bloomberg. Eat less, people!
Services minus energy-related service up 3.4%. So, your massage, dog-walking, landscaping, and cleaning services all have to charge more just to keep up.
I’d say learn how to clean your own house, walk your own dog, cut your own grass and buy one of those massage guns. These services are going to be the first thing to go in a recession.
What percentage of people unaware of how to do the above will actually get dragged down to that level though? I would like to imagine that only people who have/could afford live-in help wouldn’t know how to clean their house, and I’m sure those persons will find a way to keep their lifestyle going, albeit somewhat diminished.
Then what do the massage therapists, dog walkers, gardeners and house cleaners cut back on to feed their children?
Before getting too glib… I expect that the combined effect is going to mean that whoever is paying for your paycheck will be ‘doing without’. It was only 5 years since we saw what happened when demand goes away, and it seems we’ve all developed collective amnesia. And this time, it’s not going to last only months…..
Eat Less People? That comma throws off my admonishment to the Epstein class…
The birth rate decline means less available Soylent for us, if the rich want to maintain their current level of slaves. For the time being anyway.
Confusing to me, or maybe the calm before the storm – from Dean Baker:
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/06/10/five-big-takeaways-from-the-may-jobs-report/
I have five main takeaways from the May report.
1. Jobs are growing far faster than the breakeven rate
2. Wages are not keeping pace with inflation
3. Workers are still reluctant to leave jobs
4. Job-killing AI is not visible in the data
5. Self-employment is lagging
Recent purchase from CA to Kenya up 57% from
last 10 year average
Three thoughts that I hope are associated. You can critique ‘em if you want.
1. “the Israel Lobby would eat him alive if he put the choke chain on Israel confirms there will no negotiated settlement”
–After I read the grim anecdote from John Kiriakou in yesterday’s war bulletin from Yves Smith, I spent some time thinking it over. The U.S. military / government tells the Israelis to keep out of Iraq. Instead, the Israelis send in special-operations people to blow up electric pylons.
–In our discussions here, we often assume that what controls these Epstein-organization people is the threat of exposure: “You don’t want us to release that video of you having sex with the eleven-year-old boy in bondage, now do you, Lex?”
–What is the control, instead, may be plain organized-crime violence: “But The Donald, you wouldn’t want Grand Central Station to be vaporized during rush hour, now would you?”
–Or a personal, mysterious demise.
2. Problems with ubiquitous narcissism: “By contrast, continuing to fight allows Trump to pretend that victory can be achieved. I am told Fox News is still running that line, bigly.” We all know, though, that the same line is what shores up the liberals in the Democratic Party in their support for the nonstop fun of the Ukraine Adventure.
3. I have mentioned ways of thinking about the war in Iran, the genocide in Palestine, and, by extension, the Russian operation in Ukraine. The reason that Trump can’t figure out what the Iranians are up to is that this is a liberation war for Iran. They are cleaning the colonialists out of the Gulf. Likewise, 7 October reminds me of the Tet Offensive – which was and remains a mystery to the U.S. elites. Yet the Tet Offensive was a signal to the U.S. of A. that the Vietnam war was over and the U.S. of A. had lost. Similarly, the Russians discuss what is happening in Ukraine as an extension of the Great Patriotic War (of WW II). Hence, denazification isn’t just a word the Russians have made up.
–The response from the colonizers is always misunderstanding, disdain, and more racism. Think of the messes that that Brits made in Kenya and in Malaya.
–The level of delusion and disdain is so thick that I can’t avoid that second-to-last paragraph of the notes: “intentional collision” or not? Sheesh.
Clarifying the last point. The second-to-last paragraph of note 1:
the Apache helicopter that crashed went down after colliding with an Iranian drone. It is not clear whether the collision was intentional,
Oh. The satire almost writes itself.
So where are the interviews with the pilots talking about their experience? What did they say about what caused the crash? On the news they were talking about how a drone boat was sent out to pick them up. Why? Don’t know. Good thing that they were not injured as a drone boat would be able to do zip for them. But it makes a great pitch by the MIC to sell more of these boats to the Pentagon.
The helicopter pilots are in a shared top-secret debriefing/R&R resort for downed US pilots
We’ll here more about them and from then in due course.
Like for the F-15 pilot downed over Iran and that had to be rescued at great loss?
Until we get confirmation of the downed helicopter pilots names-an interview et al, maybe they’re quite dead?
Re: your point 1
I assume it’s all of these, rather than either or. Definitely 1 and 3. I also assume DJT observed his “mentor” Roy Cohn astutely enough to understand this.
Many ways to destroy a man for a resourceful mob, be they the US Jewish Mafia, or the Israeli spook-state (2 entities with so much overlap they may be 1 entity).
I suggest that they have simply threatened family members. How are these Congress people going to protect all of their family members? Nieces nephews grandchildren etc etc? They wouldn’t be able to get SS protection for all of their family. Seems the easiest thing in the world for a genocidal regime to threaten. Straight up terrorism, but the more personalized variety.
We seem to believe that journalists and activists are in danger of changing their behavior, or even their thinking, based on vague threats to their livelihood.
Do we think our leaders are made of stronger stuff than our journalists and activists? That they would be unpulsed by threats to the lives of the people around them? I find this hard to imagine.
ICE are doing protection now? Or do you mean Secret Service, not SchutzStaffel?
Here’s some more color on Cushing, Why Cushing Crude Inventories Are Plunging as U.S. Oil Exports Hit Record Highs, Pipeline and Gas journal, from June 5, the lede,
One of the world’s most important crude oil hubs is seeing inventories fall rapidly, raising questions about how much further stockpiles can decline before operational challenges emerge.
Cushing does have very limited storage so this factoid has to be treated with a bit of care.
I have seen a few strategists express optimism about developing workarounds to oil transit through the strait. I think they are missing a critical point.
To borrow a familiar saying, amateurs focus on oil, professionals focus on fertilizer. I have not seen any reports of alternative fertilizer production being arranged.
The longer this continues, the more likely that low harvests cause starvation, perhaps on a large scale. The growing probability of a record el nino and a world of people with compromised immune systems hit with famine… I guess feed them AI.
At this point, if Elon Musk turned up and said that his Boring Company could build a tunnel to avoid the Gulf and have the oil flow through that, that he would be taken seriously. It is that sort of timeline.
I’ve seen some tweets from neurologists that say most of the world’s population shows some degree of brain damage from covid infection. That would explain a lot.
Not to worry!
SpaceX (IPO plus) intends to raise a couple trillion bucks to put a huge cluster of 4400 pound “compute” satellites in solar synchronous orbits 150 kw (roughly one NVIDIA rack of chips) per satellite, to sell a few GW of AI compute all solar powered in orbit!
SpaceX hyperscale will do SpaceX level revenues with 3 more zeroes!
I wish it were sarc!
starvation, perhaps on a large scale.
I am confident this would be seen as a positive outcome by many who wield power.
I’m not so sure. This is the ultimate in demand destruction.
And isn’t there a theory that wages went up after the plague killed off many workers?
Demand destruction for markets combined with increased demand for wages
It makes sense if you are a clear thinking sociopathic oligarch planning to thrive through The Jackpot
See: Thiel, P and others
Good time to cash out with some IPOs
Not a theory. Wages and bargaining power went up a lot after the Black Plague.
And you can expect mass migration too.
“ And you can expect mass migration too.” Yes, and I don’t imagine there will be warm welcomes for refugees.
Maybe the US will have better luck enforcing a modern version of Statute of Laborers than Edward III did. It will certainly have better tools than were available in the 14th century.
The Plague had opposite effects in Western and Eastern Europe. In the West, it gave bargaining levetage to workers In the East, it intensified the drive towards serfdom. I’ll bet the elites (at least those who think about these) are trying for the latter.
In the West, TPTB were not long on reacting to the increased bargaining power of the working classes. Thus, in the UK, a whole series of laws were enacted to cap wages, prevent workers from moving from one employer to another, or from one place to another, and even restrict how people could spend their income. Contrarily to what is often assumed about the effectiveness of legislation on market forces, those laws were far from being entirely unusuccessful.
Too many interlocking catalysms coming up shortly, not just oil. Natural gas, fertilizer, AI, private equity, climate(El Nino), harvests, and then oil again as more refinery infrastructure gets destroyed. It could be the Year of the Jackpot.
The fertilizer/famine consequences of our rulers’ folly will be massive. I am currently reading Late Victorian Holocausts (Mike Davis, 2001) — recommended by a commenter here, which is one of the great benefits of NC. It is appalling and stunning. We will probably see events such as occurred after the El Nino/drought/epidemic catastrophe of 1877 and following years. But this time it will be televised. I don’t think it is possible to predict how this impending chaotic collapse will affect large-scale international and political arrangements.
We are looking at a repeat of the Big Burn of 1910 that scorched over 3 million acres in late August that year after a winter that wasn’t in the mountain west, just like what occurred this winter.
Add in severe water shortages for a daily double of bad news-
Oregon has had a couple of huge ones, including the Gorge Fire in recent memory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see repeat of the season from a couple years back that had the eastern half of the state so covered in smoke that houses just a couple blocks away were invisible from my front porch.
An anecdote on the Sierra water situation: I’m about 200 miles north of you (Wuk) in the Sierra. I have a seasonal creek that runs next to my abode; most years it runs until around July 4 give or take a few days. This year: bone dry on June 8 – roughly 4 weeks earlier than usual. Make of that what you will.
One of the latest rants by Trump on his Truth Social account-
‘Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore – They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP’
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116725476229257491
At the future Trump Presidential Library, they will have to have monitor stations so that people can read all this stuff for themselves. And it will take days and days and days to get through them all.
The data isn’t reliably available, but it would be interesting to have a timeline showing cumulative value of US/Isr mil infrastructure/munitions destroyed/deployed, remaining US/Isr aircraft and airborne munitions, plus DJTs comment at each time point.
Oh Donny Boy. If “The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!!” why are you still begging them for a “deal”?
Funny how Iran’s Very Messy Military can still manage to take down an Apache helicopter.
@yves asserts in this article: “Experts have repeatedly said that any use of nuclear weapons, even the much-ballyhooed tactical nuke, quickly becomes a global conflagration.” While I concede that this is technically correct (that experts have repeatedly said this) the statement is confined to the past tense.
There has been discussion recently, specifically around the use of a small nuclear weapon by the Russians, that supports a theory completely in the opposite. I would like to see more discussion on this possible adjustment to old thinking. The new thinking argues, “why would the major nuclear powers want to unleash Armageddon just to protect some European country?”
So, to repeat my point clearly, while the quote is technically correct, the position is currently in a state of flux and further discussion is ongoing.
I am long time away from thinking about gaming nuclear conflict.
In the (my old) day scuttle butt was “ every situation where a player opted for nukes it spiraled to MAD”. The standard of the war games supposedly followed game theory etc. See Tom Schelling and his early work at RAND.
I had heard that a big push by Soviets thru Fulda would go nuke if they advanced past…. The idea was MAD would come.
All that said; would Trump escalate when RF put a nuke on Ramstein?
Game theory with a president who bombs water supply in deserts.
My biggest question to this line of argument is simple: if MAD is a deterrent, why wouldn’t MAD apply to the Iranians?
The only answer I can think of is that Israel is trying to exempt themselves from the repercussions of MAD doctrine. They want to be able to use nukes against their Islamic neighbors without worrying about a retaliatory nucular strike. In this sense, Iran MUST be given a bomb to prevent Israel from entertaining that idea.
Because the Iranians (or at least the Shia majority) view it as violation of their religion to harm civilians in war. They can’t do MAD. They refused to use WMD against Iraq when Iraq deployed chemical weapons against Iran, for instance.
There are certainly people who consider themselves “experts” who have said such things, but I’m not sure how many have a background in government nuclear war planning. Most of what I’ve read on this confuses two things. One is that Cold War crisis management exercises, like NATO’s bi-annual WINTEX series, were designed to practice all levels of escalation and all possible scenarios, including what was then called, I think, “general nuclear release.” The argument was that you should put in the exercise everything you might conceivably have to do in some future crisis. Thus, scenarios, and the exercise play itself, were tightly controlled, and not intended to be predictive. The other is that actual crisis management practice generally tried to stabilise the situation at as low a level of escalation as possible. The early use of tactical nuclear weapons by NATO, which was part of NATO doctrine, was specifically intended to deliver a shock to Moscow which would persuade them to stop the war before it escalated further. You can argue for or against the realism of that doctrine, but that was the hope. By contrast, the idea of automatic nuclear escalation seems to me completely unrealistic, and based on a misunderstanding.
I’d read that this approach by NATO itself fed misunderstanding, though.
In this approach, a “limited” nuclear strike by NATO was supposed to be just a “message,” not an act of escalation that invites retaliation. However, the way Soviet nuclear doctrine supposedly operated (or, so I think I read), they’d have responded instead with a bigger retaliatory nuclear strike of their own. So rather than deescalate, such a “message” would have led to mutual annihilation quickly, regardless of whatever NATO planners might have thought. This species of analyses, mostly written fairly soon after Cold War ended, I think, are what Yves might be referring to.
The bottom line is, if you draw real blood, you are not just messaging any more.
Usually the effects of nuclear detonations are considered with respect to their impact to the mindset of military leaders on the opposite side. I suppose this is how our military leaders are trained to think, and war games are thus considered exclusively on this basis.
IMO the much more serious danger is the effect of nuclear detonations on Earth’s atmosphere and biosphere, which is generally not considered and consequently, I guess, assumed to be nil.
It doesn’t take much imagination to consider the effect of hundreds of cubic miles of radioactive dust and particles being ejected at extremely high speed from the ground zero of each warhead detonation. These particles will travel very high in the atmosphere, and will be distributed across the globe by prevailing winds. Not only will global radioactive contamination take place (with effects lasting for many centuries), but the increase in albedo of the Earth will have an unpredictable effect on temperature, and the reduction of solar energy reaching the Earth’s surface will likely cause a global famine that will exist for many years (this is the so-called “Global Winter” effect that was in vogue in the popular press for a while).
Perturbing a complex system like the Earth’s biosphere has unavoidably unpredictable consequences, and cannot be studied or even talked about intelligently, not that any leading decision makers want it to be talked about anyway. In any case, it should be in the back of all our minds when the use of nuclear weapons is discussed.
Rutgers has the best animations and charts of post-detonation global soot dispersal.
Also, Threads, and I’m pretty sure “Global Winter” was in vogue in peer reviewed journals as well.
None of these arguments or previous exercises take into account the psychopathy of the zionazis.
Maybe I’m missing something, but aside from the ‘rogue actors and stolen warheads’ (True Lies) or ‘dirty bomb’ scenario, no one has seriously considered a death wish arrogance bringing everyone down with them. Until now that is.
[“Friends”]Oh my god![/”Friends”]
Some sanity, please.
Russian military bloggers (like Colonel Cassad) have reported, from sources unknown, that the Apache was downed by the “358 missile” (SA-67 in NATO nomenclature, “Saqr-1” according to Global Security). It’s basically a heat seeker with a 20 pound warhead attached, literally an analog of the AIM-9 Sidewinder, but is loads cheaper (~$10k vs. $400k for a Sidewinder, at least according to Global Security). See here (https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/saqr.htm). Apparently it’s great against lower-speed targets like MQ-9s and helos.
Also, too, against air targets you’d typically see a proximity fuse, which means an armored helo like the Apache wouldn’t be “destroyed” by it (home in on one of the engines, which are at the top, detonate a little ways away to hit it with shrapnel; the helo will lose power and start going down, but there is still a chance for a crash landing, especially if only one engine is hit and it’s over water). So IF this was a shootdown, and IF this were a 358 missile, then the story makes complete sense, as does both of the pilots surviving (a 50/50, but definitely not a zero chance).
Moreover, this particular missile has been exported to both the Iraqi militias and the Houthis, so even if it weren’t the Iranians it is not THAT difficult to get one’s hands on.
Instead we have somebody at the Pentagon feeding the “Shahed” story to CNN, because they know that professional journalists are idiots who know nothing about anything. I’m assuming. Surely no-one at the Pentagon can be that stupid. All of the time.
EDIT I should also note the Russians are reporting that the pilots were rescued by a water-based drone, claiming that the US couldn’t send any of the big ships to the location for fear of Iranian attack. Which means the Apache would have been hanging out pretty close to Iranian waters and airspace, probably on the very edge of it. Why? My hypothesis would be to shoot some fishermen in their boats to claim victory of some description – again. You send a drone to do recon, not an Apache. But whatever.
The 358 is unlikely to have had the range to threaten a helicopter off the coast of Oman (it depends of course on precisely where it was downed). If the Iranians are flying them directly at Oman to hit opportunistic targets, then this would be a significant escalation as civilian aircraft are still operating over that country.
The Russians have experimented with Manpads on Shahad’s, and I would imagine the Iranians have too, so that seems the likeliest explanation if it was the cause. The advantage of this type of set up is that there would be a very short time between launch and hitting a target if, say, the helicopter was trying to get close enough to get off a shot, so the Apache would only have seconds to release flares and decoys. Its also to some degree ‘deniable’ if necessary.
But its not unlikely a Shadad could take down an Apache by accident. There is a history as old as air combat of aircraft being taken down by their own target, whether from flying debris, shock waves, or the target spinning out of control. There is at least one video floating around of a UAE helicopter being slightly damaged from debris from a Shahad it was targeting. If an Apache was getting close enough to use its 30mm cannon, then a misjudgement by the pilots or a sudden course change by a targeted drone could have caused them all sorts of problems.
There is one recorded incident where a USAF fighter shot itself down. It was diving and firing off its ammunition but in the dive, it got ahead of its own bullets so that the plane was shot up by its own bullets. I bet that the pilot never lived that down.
Not unlike the Axios Cheat Seeking missile ™, launched right before market open on Monday, or Sunday at 5PM before the overnight futures session begins. It is usually armed with a Barak Ravid warhead, consisting of 50 lbs of lies stuffed into a 20 lb sack.
You know who else refused to back down in the face of looming defeat? Custer.
Maybe Custer was not the hapless soldier he is proported to be.
https://historynet.com/custer-battle-decisions/
Trump may eventually be in a failed leadership class of his own, perhaps eclipsing George W Bush’s Afghanistan/Iraq military adventure with its estimated loaded cost of 8 trillion USD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Little_Bighorn
Custer underestimated the enemy. Gatling guns were unsurpassed engagement-distance weapons in 1876.
Custer was also a cavalryman, not an infantryman. The cavalry always thinks speed trumps firepower.
The history.net article discusses the pros and cons of the Gatling gun.
Maybe Custer was more reasonable than commonly depicted.
Trump’s history is unfolding for all the world to see.
Maybe he can pull out a “great deal” to save his legacy, but he may be eventually viewed as a malevolent Herbert Hoover, responsible for Trumpvilles all over the world.
I tend to think Custer’s military ability gets bad rep undeservingly You don’t go from a WP cadet to a (temp) two star general in 4 years without some sort of serious skill. Alas, rising in ranks so quickly only to revert to his regular rank (a captain) after the fighting ended supposedly did a number on his psyche, although his promotion rate in regular ranks was still pretty impressive (he was lt col 15 years after WP, not bad for late 19th c US Army).
After Meade was given command of the AoP in July 1863 he was allowed to nominate three cavalrymen to BG. On the recommendation of Gen Pleasenton, his chief of cavalry, Custer was one of the colonels picked. Largely I think due to performance in the Battle of Brandy Station which is generally considered the first time union cavalry successfully stood up to the ANV cavalry. Historians generally suggest the Stuart, licking his wounds after that, launched his movement that separated his command from the ANV as a way of redemption.
That decision to promote Custer was vindicated days later at the East Cavalry Field during Gettysburg.
Custer, though was known as ambitious. He managed to get an appointment as McClellan’s AdC early in the war, giving him a temporary rank of Captain. When McClellan’s staff was getting down-sized Custer was in danger of getting reverted but he was able to get into the cavalry.
After the war, like most officers, the fastest way to promotion was to get appointment to a newly authorized regiment. So with formation of the 7th Cav he won a field grade commission as the regiment’s LCOL. (At the outset of the war the regular army had two regiments of dragoons and the regiment of mounted riflemen, intended for frontier duty. In the years preceding the war under Secy of War Jeff Davis two regiments of cavalry were created. That set off a promotion scramble with engineers/topogs getting many of the field grade positions (RE Lee, AS Johnston, GB McClellan etc). Early on in the war all the mounted regiments were redesignated as 1-5 cavalry. While all were then “cavalry”, dragoon history — more akin to mounted infantry — can be seen in how former dragoon officers like David McM Gregg fought compared to cavalry.)
bossman/owner at the last job i had was a gun-nut and rich(inherited it, natch) and randian libertardian.
he obtained, among other things, a real gatling gun. and i had the opportunity to fire it, after helping him set it up.
they are not light, by any means.
in custer’s time, the wagons with all the baggage…food, tents, etc…followed behind the cavalry, not with it…as they were slower.
such a weapon would need to be on hand to be useful at all…which would require a wagon.
so yeah, i can see why custer refused them.
(says on one of the in the bushes signs around here “Custer died for your sins”…which elicited much confusion and then discussion when Eldest’s Krewe began hanging out out here.)
As one of the local (only local?) NC gun nut libertarians (note more conventional spelling ;-) I would also point out that the Gatling* guns of the era were also somewhat temperamental regarding ammunition, required LOTS of it (also very heavy) to perform their duties adequately, and, like all rapid-firing firearms, have physical performances that are somewhat below their mythical ones as propagated by Hollywood.
I say this as someone who spent a day on a range in Korea with 6 gun jeeps armed with M60 machineguns and several thousand rounds of taxpayer-funded fodder for them, facing a range filled with … balloons. Hits, ricochets, tossed up rock, ANY of that could have popped a balloon, and yet at the end of the day about half of the two hundred were still surviving. I would have wiped out the entire two hundred with my issue M16A1 and a basic ammunition load.
Automatic weapons tend to be good ways to turn money into noise….
*”Which 19th century physician was instrumental in aiding the military in learning how to treat bullet wounds? Dr. Richard Jordan Gatling.”
I always wondered how they got minie balls to be shot at full auto…l
A Gatling gun, oddly enough, is technically not “full auto.” You can buy one without going through the hassle of all that tiresome paperwork necessary for a non-police/non-military to purchase, say, an Uzi or a Thompson SMG. You can snag one* for $4,200 on sale, in .22LR, should you feel the desire to turn money into noise on the cheap.
It’s actually between 6-10 (google sez) barrels that are individually loaded and then fired in sequence, very quickly. A “normal” machine gun is just one bolt, one barrel. So basically a Gatling gun is just 6-10 “regular” guns that load and fire individually. Very fast.
So all you need is your regular Minie ball loaded brass cartridges in the ammo hopper and as the mechanism cranks around each round is individually picked up, loaded, and fired, cycle repeating until ammo runs out or the darned thing jams.
The modern equivalents are VERY efficient and VERY not-jam-prone, unlike the original.
*consult your state and local laws, obviously, before purchase. ;-)
That’s crazy. I had to look it up just to make sure you aren’t pulling our leg.
https://tippmannordnance.com/22lr-gatling-gun/
Howcum Hollywood doesn’t know about this?
…just to make sure you aren’t pulling our leg.
I believe that “spreading misinformation” is one of the mortal sins here at NC. I have no desire to incur Yves’s wrath for doing so. Or, to be honest, for any OTHER NC sins…
What would you want Hollywood to know, given that HW wouldn’t last a day here at NC, given its inherent propensity for “making s**t up?” And I don’t mean light sabers and warp drives….
Wow, that’s positively nuts! :O
Custer merely followed then current US Army doctrine of fighting Indians based on the misunderstanding* that the village and the families were the key. According to the doctrine one element fixes the Indian warriors, while the other element goes around and captures the village (and the women and the children). It was assumed that the braves would either run or surrender at this point of the battle leading to an easy victory.
At Little Big Horn the braves did not follow the doctrine and the divided, separated cavalry units were unable to fight in a coherent way. Against an enemy with the numbers, the firepower and the morale.
* it was later understood that it was the horse and especially the buffalo that allowed Indians to escape, evade, recover, recapture (their families), rebuild (the village) and keep on fighting.
I see a few mistakes in that argument.
1. Custer absolutely knew about how many Indians he would be fighting. His scouts told him repeatedly, both the civilian scouts as well as the Crow scouts. Sure he didnt know when he started the campaign but he absolutely knew before he ordered the attack.
2. Custer absolutely was supposed to wait for the other two commands. He deliberately did a forced march the day/night before so he could get there early.
Custer: “Should I go down there? ”
Scout: ” General, you go down there. […] There are thousands of Indians down there. And when they get done with you, there won’t be nothing left but a greasy spot. This ain’t the Washi-da River, General. And them ain’t helpless women and children waiting for you They’re Cheyenne braves, and Sioux. You go down there, if you got the nerve.”
Custer: “Still trying to outsmart me, aren’t you, muleskinner? You want me to think that you don’t want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is… you really don’t want me to go down there! […]The hour of victory is at hand! Onward to Little Bighorn!
That famous day in history, memorialized in song….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fe0q8Lq3L2Q
2026: Bluster’s Last Stand?
‘dana
@dana916
🇺🇸🇮🇱⚔️🇱🇧🇮🇷 Israeli media: “The stubbornness of the Iranians and Hezbollah has indeed proven to us last year that we are facing unexpecting enemies.”
“It is difficult to subdue the Iranians and Hezbollah as they possess a very high capacity for endurance.”
“The Israeli Army openly admits that there will be no 100% solution against the explosive drones of Hezbollah, which continue to impose a heavy blood price.”’
Hezbollah has a message for the Israelis and it is this-
‘There is room in the grave for both of us.’
We’ll see who cracks first.
Perhaps the helicopter crash never happened (or was fabricated). Occurring on the same day (or evening), Trump went to a basketball game at which he was booed. As much as he’d prefer to bomb the stadium, going to bomb Iran would be his next best choice. No one boos at Trump and gets away with it, directly or indirectly.
I had the same thought. Unfortunately, the “fog of war” allows for straight-up fabrications. How would we know? Somethings can be proven by enough cross-referencing, but events that don’t have enough evidence could be true or false. And yes, I bet Trump was furious over being boo’ed and would want to show his power bigly.
0647 PDT
Erdogan threatens attacks against Israel
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/428420
I’ll believe this when he cuts off oil to Israel.
Erdogan VS Trump, Who lies the most? Tough call
OTOH, while they both talk a tough game, only Trump follows through.
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned in awhile is that Iran turned back on the Internet after it killed the internet for a month. Is it still on? If it is, why?
I personally think they turned it off because of US Israeli signals intelligence had their entire network hacked and that contributed to the initial decapitation strike.
In this video one of the speakers says that the internet is back on. Perhaps around 16:30 minutes…
(This is the dropsite news video that is included in today’s Iran post.)
https://www.youtube.com/live/LfqNEIG35pQ
What if
xx
What if Russia, China and Iran played a long game? They could deal with the tit for tat warfare of the hegemon while reducing its armory? They could talk of partnership and coexistence, but privately among themselves make moves that work against the hegemon. They could invest heavily in their clandestine activities, both to obtain intelligence as well as to undermine cooperation among the hegemon and vassals.
As needed they would protect their own resources using violence.
It will take many years to play out, because the hegemon is strong, and its resources and strength will persist. This is why the long game, with deception, clandestine activities, and violence as needed, would be played.
(@DanielLDavis1): “And then the idea “if Iran retaliates…“ I doubt seriously anyone in central command or the US Armed Forces is naïve enough to believe that Iran will not retaliate, and likely in a bigger way than 20 targets.”
“if Iran retaliates” is just as much word salad as when Iranian officials/reps utter the phrase “if USA/Israel strikes”…
Yes an the reasons argued for attacks and retaliations are word salads too. The US didn’t bother to find any kind of credible excuse and they possibly used a stupid excuse with the intention to state they do whatever they want, and excuses are a simple formality nobody cares about.
How come Malcolm Nance isn’t cited anymore? Is he compromised? He says it was brought down with a loitering drone.
He is a fabulist and thus not reliable.
i didnt do any due diligence yesterday when i linked that. in me cups and found him funny, contropois to the usual dour people we usually listen to.
Crooke is still prolly my favorite.
From footnote 1:
according to the WSJ, his mind was changed after a briefing from defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Dan Caine.
What a way to run a war.
It’s safe to say Hegseth’s loyalty is not actually to Trump, right? That it’s actually to whatever batshit preacher he follows and the wider Armageddon project?
Caine is more of an enigma to me. I commented here when he was appointed that his recent “outside work” appointments was suggestive if cooption by the Thielites. Furthermore, he was apparently part of the “this seems like a bad idea” faction at the beginning of the war. Whether that was genuine is it course open to debate.
Neither of them (or Trump obviously) gives any reason to think they are loyal to America, or it’s people.
More than just Trump, I think we are truly encountering the ego or perhaps id of the US empire itself. This used to be known as the deep state but it seems to have metastasized well beyond government bureaucracy. “Epstein class” does seem to be a better description.
Rationally, we would assume that economic security and prosperity for the US public, not to mention the world, would be a primary concern. This in turn, as Yves has pointed out, would represent a pressure point for trying to force a rational ending to this unfolding nightmare.
Nope. The US or perhaps the empire of the world’s ruling elite seems to be tightly in the grip of the psychotic Epstein class. The ego or id of this ruling elite is just as do or die as is Trump’s own narcissism. They have no intention of giving up or lessening anything, neither wealth nor status, so long as they themselves are nominally secure. In regards to the US and world’s peoples, it is truly, “Let them eat cake…” No different than the approach we have witnessed over the last decade toward an ever approaching climate catastrophe.
A safe bet for them either way.
All gets resolved and they continue to control a majority of the resources.
Everything goes to hell and they are safe on their $500m yachts or in one of their many well-stocked bunkers in whatever place is farthest away like New Zealand.
No one could ever claim the Epstein class is benevolent but stupid they are not. The stupidity actually lies in those who do their bidding for a few crumbs, like the icestapo, mercenaries and other hired goons.
The head of our engineering division once explained to us, when we asked in a meeting why he wasn’t taking action on something, that his job reminded him of those car seats we used to have for little kids which included a fake plastic steering wheel. The kid is sitting there happily with a big grin on his face, thinking he’s driving the car, when in fact his steering wheel is not hooked up.
This metaphor has stayed with me for 30 years. It seems like there are a lot of situations where illusory control is functional for everyone involved. The kid stays happy and quiet, and the adults are free to go wherever they want without having to answer any questions, while also convincing themselves that they are doing the best for everyone involved.
And it also creates an unexpectedly large market for plastic steering wheels! I remember the one on my sister’s car seat was bright yellow, and had a push-button pneumatic horn in the middle. What’s not to like?
EIA Petroleum Balance Sheet week ending 5 June.
Commercial crude stocks down 7.2 million barrels to 426.5
Strategic Petroleum Reserve down 7.9 to 349.2 million barrels
gasoline and kerosene holding steady distillate down 6.2% year on year at 102.1 million barrels
Maybe this war could go on for years for the Iranian side, with support from China and Russia, but how long can the US Navy keep its ships in theater? Will they make it through a summer (which hasn’t even started yet) in the Gulf, and be able to keep supplies being delivered, and keep morale from sinking through the hull into the deeps? For that matter, can Israel survive another year or two of this? Obviously the US and Israel can continue doing what they are especially good at, killing civilians and destroying civil infrastructure, but will that lead to anything like victory, or even a durable cessation of fighting that lets them get relief from the strain of war on their societies?
All the oceans and seas have been the US military’s “theater” for a long time.
Yes, in my day since 79 or so there was continuous presence of a CVBG (now CVSG) in the NAS. Granted, we have a couple less carriers now but back then we also kept two CVBG in the Med.
0945 PDT
UN inquiry finds Israeli forces shield settlers during attacks on Palestinians
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-inquiry-finds-israeli-forces-shield-settlers-during-attacks-palestinians-2026-06-09/
The Apache has a range of 300 miles (480km), a relatively short range. Where did it come from? Kuwait? Qatar? UAE? Oman? It almost certainly didn’t come from the Arabian Sea.
Interesting that the price of oil steadfastly refuses to spike upwards. Commodity traders, in my experience, are tightly attuned to market realities and largely immune to BS hand-waving narratives. Maybe there really is a lot of oil slipping out quietly from the Persian Gulf, and maybe a lot is also being discreetly pipelined to the Red Sea.
Also interesting that the price of Ye Olde Yellow Metal (which went sharply upwards in February) has been plunging these past two weeks. Maybe it’s a forced liquidation, but maybe key market players know something and are feeling relaxed about the overall situation.
The lack of panic in the financial markets is either reassuring (not my take) or highly disturbing (my take): I have read on many occasions that when airplanes crash, one of the problems during post-crash evacuation is that passengers tend to freeze up (instead of panicking), because they’re so accustomed to 100% safe and routine airplane flights that they simply don’t expect a life-threatening emergency. I suspect that’s where we are right now, globally speaking.
Wars tend to go on much longer than people expect. WW1 being the perfect example, but who seriously thought that RU and UKR would still be duking it out after four and a half years with no end in sight? The Soviets were in Afghanistan for 10 years, the Yankees for 20. Vietnam. The 30 Years War. The Hundred Years War. The Punic Wars.
This one can easily drag on for months, if not longer.
“…but who seriously thought that RU and UKR would still be duking it out after four and a half years with no end in sight?”
I’m old enough to remember when people were denying that Russia was building up for their move into Ukraine…even weeks before.
Weeks before the invasion, Biden’s puppeteers were claiming that Russia was about to invade, with Russia flatly denying it had any intention of doing so. My recollection is that there was military build up on both sides of the border. Russia only invaded after Ukraine drastically increased the shelling on the Donbass region. And even then the SMO would have been over and done with in a month if the US hadn’t sent in BoJo the Clown to scupper the peace agreement about to be signed.
I do wonder if Russia would have invaded at all absent that provocation against Russian speaking Ukrainians. I suspect they would not have. I don’t think it is a coincidence at all that provocations against Russia increased mere months after the US was forced out of Afghanistan in humiliation. War, along with dubious financial instruments, is about the only large economic export the US has to offer the rest of the world, and any long cessation of hostilities could have made Mr. Market have a sad. That, and the need for chickenhawk old men to somehow save face is what brougt the world to this point. I didn’t think it would last as long as it has either – I thought Russia would have lost patience with the US/EU/Ukraine clown show a long time ago.
Here is a likely suspect. David Kelly is JPMorgan’s Global Investment Strategist. Speaking as a reformed former member of his sect, I will tell you that he has a cult-like following in the retail financial advisor community where I encountered him for more than a decade on his widely attended quarterly conference calls. This morning he told Bloomberg that inflation may be at its peak for the cycle. He cited falling gasoline prices in the US – down 9% from a May 20 peak – as evidence of diminishing cost pressures. No energy cliff for David!!! This view holds that this price pressure is just temporary and, further, it only applies to energy. El Nino or Screw Worm? No, the food supply is fine. The disciplined investor looks through these issues to the pastures of pink AI ponies and warm fuzzy data centers.
Here in NSW, Aus diesel is 5c a litre cheaper now than before the war started.
Seriously.
“Transitory” inflation is back!!! It was all the rage in 2021 at the Fed and among its fellow travelers in economics. Eventually they were right and even cheered its decline.
But they mostly kept mum on the permanent rise in the price level, which is how most people think about when they experience inflation and affordability. And it’s what contributed to Biden’s overdue unpopularity and will affect Trump’s.
The Graeco-Romano-American Persian War? Marathon, Thermopylae, Arbela, Carrhae, Constantinople, and still going after 2500 years?
…but who seriously thought that RU and UKR would still be duking it out after four and a half years with no end in sight?
Anyone who thought it was going to be a war of attrition, rather than a war of conquest?
Oh boy, Yves is going to be so embarassed. Our great leader has been sneaking oil out at night, right under the nose of those Persians! In response to a question about today’s inflation numbers, Trump said:
“No, I love it. The numbers were great,” he said, before adding that the US has been taking out “millions of barrels of oil” without Iran’s knowledge.
“We took out the other night 22 ships late at night, with no lights because they don’t have any radar, because we blasted the crap out of it,” Trump said, making a claim that has not been independently verified by the Guardian. “That’s why oil is at $85 a barrel.”
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/economy/articles/trump-says-i-love-the-inflation-as-rate-rises-to-42-amid-iran-war-pressure-173706222.html
I’m new to this whole “commit crimes” thing. Is it a good idea to advertise to your victim that you have been stealing their oil? Good strategy there, Master Chief. I’m reminded of the scene in Shawshank Redemption where Tim Robbins casually drops dirt from his dug-out escape tunnel in the courtyard by sneaking it out in his pants.
I took a quick scroll of comments and did not see this, but apologies if there:
US to launch harsh strikes in coming hours https://tass.com/world/2145165
Maybe they can hit some Qataris too:
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260610-qatari-delegation-arrives-in-iran-for-talks-on-bilateral-ties-regional-developments/
While KSA is not playing ball: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260610-saudi-arabia-condemns-iranian-attacks-on-gulf-neighbors-says-assaults-undermine-efforts-to-restore-security/
Today El Pais, being a mildly Zionist outlet but at the same time trying to look somehow progressive, or socialist, published an Op-Ed co-authored by Stefan Löfven (Swedish, ex Prime Minister currently head of the European Socialist Party) Leo Varadkar (Irish, ex-Taoiseach and ex-leader of Fine Gael) and Joaquín Almunia (Spanish, Vicepresident of EU’s Commission, ex-Minister in Spain) which runs by the headline “La UE debe parar los pies a Israel” (The EU Must Stand up to Israel). The article, first and foremost admits the EU is loosing credibility at a fast pace amongst it’s own citizenry, though speaking properly “EU citizenry” does not have much legal basis. But here we have the excessive influence of Merz’s Germany with too many votes in its back (watch Munchau here i think it is quite early among the first 10 minutes of the podcast) to do anything like, for instance, force Israel to comply with the terms of the EU-Israel Association Agreement or cancel it.
As you can see the European division between blind Zionists and milder elements is a political one: the more conservative the more Zionist. I agree with vao that the further you go to the right of the political spectrum the more Zionist and probably antisemitic. So this is a battle lost by the Socialists and Europeans in general. But at least a few let their disagreement to be known by the public.
On the home front:
10 yr. Treasuries: 4.53%
CPI: 4.2%
Brent: $94
Note: It seems for the most part, CPI buries rising insurance costs. On a personal level, automobile, homeowners, and health have gone upwards in the neighborhood of 30%, i.e. a susbstanial amount of money.
Yes, and in my experience, insurance companies are getting more aggressive about raising deductibles, denying claims, or threatening to dump you if you file too many claims (you get punished for having the nerve to try and use it for what it was designed for).
Heads they win, tails we lose.
Heck, you don’t even have to file any claims. We were with one company for both home and auto insurance since 2011. Paid in full every year, on time, no claims.
In 2023, knowing that I would be retiring in 3-5 years, we started major work on the house, starting with the roof and gutters, but other stuff like addressing dry rot, painting, windows, etc.
That all happened over spring and summer. Last fall, we got a letter from the insurance company stating that the roof had been deemed unacceptable and that we would be dropped unless we replaced it (they sent what looked like Google Street View pictures of the old roof). No biggie, I thought, I sent back pictures of the new roof and a copy of the paid invoice. We renewed that November as usual, no more problems.
Then a week after I retired this past February, they sent another letter threatening to drop us again unless we allowed an inspector into our home, or conversely, use their AI internet tool to upload pictures of our home (including the interior) to one of their sites.
We are now with a different insurance company. We were not going to agree to either of those intrusive asks.
But who knows how long it will be until this new insurance company tries the same thing? We have discussed it, and given the many stories I’ve read recently about the high rates of claims denial, Himself and I have decided that we will risk having no home insurance at that point.
my cousin’s main construction gig for the last 25 years has been hurricane cleanup and repair, all along the gulf coast, but mostly in houston.
for 4 plus years, he’s been having to fight with insurance companies dragging their feet…sometimes for years…on paying up on work that he did that was obviously covered and approved(w pics and paperwork and approvals and all that).
one of his long term girlfriends has been an insurance agent(either state farm or allstate, i can never tell), and she told me 2 years ago that they just arent writing policies south of I-10.
both of these anecdatapoints indicate to me that the insurance industry is in big trouble….catching up with the reinsururs who, a long time ago, were already aware that their bidness model was frelled.
add this feature to the Jackpot.
mom has home insurance…and is a big believer in it.
i had it on the 40 year old trailerhouse when there was still a mortgage.
now, i dont have anything of the sort. just liability on the vehicles, which is required by state law.
i have never made a claim on any insurance(save life insurance, who were remarkably helpful…which surprised me, given my experience with other layers of that industry, mostly second hand).
save life insurance, who were remarkably helpful…
Would you buy life insurance if beneficiaries weren’t collecting? To a large extent, it’s just the insurer and you, so I tend to think the regulatory framework that exists for life and annuities isn’t as opaque as healthcare. There is no room for “well, these syringes cost WAY TOO MUCH.” The state legislators can handle this issue, and as long as they don’t drop the ball, they are largely responsible for the regulatory environment.
I don’t have dental, and I saw my bill being put together on the screen by the private equity outfit. I didn’t get charged this, but they are charging insurance for cancer screenings. That means they tell you if they see an odd sore in your mouth. My guess is the insurer would fight that but miss something else. It was an odd-looking bill that was being put together.
There’s a reason life insurance is different. The risk is *assured* to happen, hence why the industry historically calls itself life assurance in the UK.
Every policy they write will either lapse or payout and they make their money on investing the “float”, not by denying claims (beyond clear, objective breaches like fraud, suicide, standstill periods etc). Getting a reputation for screwing the grieving is a quick road to seeing your premium income and positive cashflows dry up….
Recall that reader Ben Panga, who has a lot of experience with severe narcissists, said that they fear humiliation more than death.
OK, story-time:
Unfortunately, I too have lots of experience with severe narcissists, both professionally and through life-experience. Sadly, many of us do, even if our dealings with narcissists aren’t something we deliberately select through our choice of professional roles such as shrink, therapist, personal assistant, etc., let alone by social misfortune such as family-ties. It sure does seem that the problem of malignant narcissism is becoming worse, or rather, that the actions of narcissists are having a greater, more outsized effect on many more lives today than in times past.
To be clear, I am no specialist or academic who possesses expertise on the subject of narcissism or abnormal psychology. Narcissism is something I find icky and disdainful, unfortunately, immediate present circumstances demand that I know something about the subject, have more knowledge of narcissism than I’d otherwise prefer in an effort to attempt to manage an ugly and messy personal and legal situation that I’d at least partially characterize as “murder by neglect.”
This particular situation has been ongoing since 2022, and now there are multiple attorneys involved, accountants, a judge, and quite likely law enforcement stepping back in to this case as evidence continues to accumulate (to support charges of fraud, forgery, financial exploitation, and more). In short, someone died because someone else wanted their stuff; a lot of people got hurt along the way, a lot of wrong was done… one of the oldest stories in the book, and I’m sure each of us can provide plenty of examples of this happening today as well as others throughout history.
People are messy and our minds make this mess messier– well, both ours, and theirs. Now, the primary goal of the malevolent actors in my particular situation was money. But this as a goal is shared by many across the entire psychological spectrum, and it’s kinda normal considering that money is required for normal participation in our society, but we generally have rules that govern how one may obtain this money. In the situation that I am directly involved in, these lines were clearly crossed, and I am obligated to take action– which I have done, hence lawyers, etc..
OK, to simplify things, the goal of the primary malevolent actors was money– material personal gain. Yeah, simple enough to understand, but I’ve found that when looking past that, I find myself entering a damn rabbit-hole, murky and unfamiliar terrain: what are these people? Are they grifters? Sociopaths? Malignant narcissists? What, exactly, am I up against? What lays behind the motivation for the goal, money?
I have a tendency to overthink things. No, not a tendency– I do overthink things. A professor once said that my mind often resembles an elephant: slow to get started, but once it gets moving it crushes everything in its path. I doubt this was a complement, but fair enough. And I did soon enough realize that I was looking for a word, a label, a something that would simplify things and make everything clear: what is a sociopath as compared to a narcissist, a grifter, psychopath or greedy scumbag?
I decided that labels and classifications are something best left to others: there’s too much overlap of behaviors, similar or shared characteristics, for a layman like myself to ascribe singular authoritative definition to– leave that to the judges, lawyers and shrinks to figure-out when all’s said and done. As an ex-agent and investigator, I’d best do what do; study the evidence and work-out the M.O., and figure out how to end it.
Ben Panga, who has a lot of experience with severe narcissists, said that they fear humiliation more than death.
I don’t believe that this is meant to be taken literally, at least in most cases, but humiliation should be feared by a narcissist because it would hinder their ability to manipulate others into taking actions that the narcissist desires or needs in order to attain their ends.
Without the cooperation of others, the narcissist has no power.
In my case, this cooperation by others included perjury and forgery. These others could be considered accomplices or co-conspirators, but in relation to narcissism, these people who cooperate with narcissists are known as “Flying Monkeys” (a Wizard of Oz reference).
Now, broadly speaking, there are two types of flying monkeys: malevolent flying monkeys and benevolent flying monkeys. Malevolent flying monkeys are often narcissists themselves, and they’re cooperating with the narcissist to enhance their own power, or they’re in it for the drama, or maybe simply for the joy of watching someone get hurt. Benevolent flying monkeys are helpers– dupes, but trying to wholeheartedly help or please, unaware that they’re being manipulated by a narcissist and causing real harm to others.
In my case, flying monkeys helped to kill my stepmother and nearly killed my father.
Donald Trump, if he is a narcissist, he is a very successful narcissist. But he couldn’t have caused the harm which he has caused without the cooperation of others… the willing and knowing cooperation of many people, of many flying monkeys. The same can be said for Netanyaho and many other… “leaders…” I choke on that term, but realize they wouldn’t be “leaders” without followers who support them in that role.
The Donald Trumps will come and go, and we’ll deal with them as we must, but we will get nowhere but into more hurt if we don’t make an effort to clip the wings of their flying monkeys and to hold them personally accountable for their actions as well.
…they fear humiliation more than death.
What leads to humiliation?
Truth.
aye. it took me 40 years, almost, to accidentally land on a diagnosis of covert narcissism to explain 4 decades of my mom’s behavior towards me, and many others.
(i am the default scapegoat, and now the only one left, because i have schooled my boys in all of this)
and weirdly, trump helped in this.
i was doing a wikiwander(but not just on wiki, i follow links) attempting to figger out my own psychology, after one of her blowups(until that night, believing that it was me that was fucked up), after Don died.
and one of the blue links in wiki said “narcissist”…which i had never explored…since i reckoned thats trump, and extravagant loud people like him. so i clicked on it, and yep, theres the donald,lol…but there was another blue link, to “covert narcissism”, and i clicked on that…and there was my momma…described perfectly.
it was like a light shew forth in the darkness, and a great weight was lifted from me.
naming a thing accurately gives one power over it.
so i endeavor to deny her her narcissistic supply, and walk away when she pokes at me.
many other strategies have been developed when i hafta, say, drive her 120 miles there and back to a doctor or whatever.
sometimes i slip…ill hafta be especially wary this friday(Tam’s Day), because thats the sort of day that she will likely attempt to attack me.
and i cannot react.
wont let her ruin Tam’s Day, for me.
having also studied this intensely for almost 5 years, i think that the crazies we’ve endured before in the white house, etc, were mostly of the covert kind.
trump is the first real out of the closet malignant narcissist we’ve been inflicted with, hence his seeming anomolousness.
Thank you for sharing this LawnDart, that’s a really effed up situation that happened to you. I hope you can get some resolution.
I decided that labels and classifications are something best left to others: there’s too much overlap of behaviors, similar or shared characteristics, for a layman like myself to ascribe singular authoritative definition to– leave that to the judges, lawyers and shrinks to figure-out when all’s said and done. As an ex-agent and investigator, I’d best do what do; study the evidence and work-out the M.O., and figure out how to end it.
I think this is a smart take and isn’t dissimilar to how I work with individuals when I do emotional work. Labels are prevalent and often counterproductive in therapy. [disclosure: I am not a credentialed therapist] I think it’s imprecise to say “XXX is a narcissist” and use that template as a full understanding of the individual. A mistaking the map for the territory type mistake. Narcissism is a behaviour pattern (or a thought/emotion/response pattern) that appears differently with different people. It does not fully define the person and usually a bunch of other function gives the narcissist their individual flavour.
At its root, narcissism is a dysfunction in the brain/emotional system that (I believe) arises in response to deep feelings of inadequacy usually triggered by critical unempathetic (in Trump’s case sociopathic) parenting.
When we experience strong emotions as small children (or later) it leaves an imprint connected to the pain or pleasure it brought. Much of later life involves chasing or avoiding those emotional experiences. If an imprint is very very painful, avoiding it’s repetition becomes the driving force in ones life. Almost always, this is an unconscious process.
On Trump specifically, I’m persuaded by Mary Trump’s retelling of the mash potato story. I believe Yves is referring to a comment on it I made a couple of months back
The links in the comment are instructive I think.
The short version: Trump’s existence/purpose is to try and escape nagging inner feelings of inadequacy. The mash potato incident was humiliating, and that pain (humiliation and inadequacy) left a very strong imprint. It would be one of many early life experiences that taught him to fear being a loser, being weak, etc. The fear of re-experiencing that emotional state trumps everything else in his decision-making.
Note: it doesn’t matter what others actually think of him, it matters what insane lies he can tell himself about what others think of him. It’s not rational, coherent or sane. In any situation he needs to exit with a mental defence against his inner voice saying “loser!”.
Thus, he will make insane self-defeating choices, up to and including those that might lead to his own death rather than take a choice that feels deeply humiliating. (Thinking of my own late father as I write this bit!).
This would fit well with Yves’ position that ex regime change no settlement is possible in this war.
There’s probably a deeper point to be made about Trump as avatar for American national psychological dysfunction during the time of Imperial collapse but it’s still early and I need coffee :)
Edit: if I was fighting a war with Trump I would be including “Trump with mash on head” in all my Lego movies and many memes. It’s a dirty tactic, but hit ’em where it hurts.
Have to pick GF up at airport or I would wobble on a bit about this albeit I still find the idea of mythomaniac disorder applicable here ….. so much evidence over decades …
on this comment, which is really a call for help, I am not well clued.
As it seems to me that the globe is dividing into two economic spheres (slowly) with many long term contracts for oil delivery to China, etc. Then oil escaping the Gulf covertly most likely is heading to China (at least some plus they have the most money and demand), and thus never was part of the western reserves / flow. If you remove the China Russia Iran oil that was never on the market (and their reserves) it seems to me the situation is more grim than global analysis would make. Or maybe I am missing something. Same for fertilizer and helium, and…
So there was a ceasefire?
We’re all pretty screwed. I wonder if at some point the Gulf monarchies might kick out the US; I guess the economic pain isn’t there yet. Trump keeps sticking his camel’s nose under the tent. His latest pronouncement that we exfiltrated secretly tons of Iranian oil without their knowledge was pretty hilarious, because if we really did have total dominance over the strait as Trump said, there’d be no need for secrecy.
This timeline is lit.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/10/world/iran-war-trump-us/105e7bf8-4df4-579d-bc6b-d59890ea4232?smid=url-share
My understanding is that Iraq has asked us to leave and we won’t.
Just watched a sequence of about 5 clips of Trump saying “very close to a deal” over the last couple of months on NHK.
I’m guessing the Japanese aren’t buying what Trump is selling.
Iran’s top joint military command says Strait of Hormuz closed
A few Mid-East Spectator Telegram posts from the last couple of hours (oldest to newest):
BREAKING: Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiyaa Central Command announces the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing zero ships to pass from now on, with or without tolls
Every single movement through the Strait will be targeted. Previously, about 10-30 ships transited per day.
—
Anyways, this basically means even Chinese, Russian and Pakistani ships will no longer be allowed to cross.
Unfortunate for them, but it’s been decided by Iran that the price of oil must skyrocket.
—–
NEW: Iran blew up two ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz
—-
Iran to begin large scale naval mining of the Strait of Hormuz
Previously, only a very limited number of mines was deployed.
—-
NEW: President Trump, talking to Fox News, claims he called directly with an Iranian official and they ‘asked him to stop’, so he said he will ‘stop the bombing soon’
—
Contrast with Trumps latest post:
Last month, I directed our Great U.S. Military to execute a secret mission to support Oil Tankers and other Commercial Ships through the Straight of Hormuz. Today, I am pleased to announce that this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Straight, and into the Open Market. More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait. This wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran. Their military is defeated, and their economy is lost. It’s over for Iran! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
The New York Times trying to unsuccessfully explain away the US attack on Iranian water facilities-
‘It is unclear if the U.S. intentionally struck the water facilities, or knew what was in the buildings. Deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime under international law.’
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/world/middleeast/precision-strike-iran-water.html
Maybe they targeted it by mistake thinking it was a little girl’s school?