Elections are this Sunday in Armenia in a contest that is in large part about which direction the country will take on the geopolitical stage: toward “the West” or remaining with Russia.
The current government headed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is clear on its preferred course: full steam ahead for the EU regardless of the consequences. The opposition prefers continued strong ties with Moscow, which means an end for now of the idea of joining the EU.
For what it’s worth, Armenian polls show Pashinyan leading, although not by enough to form a single-party government. Regardless, it’s a lose-lose situation for Armenia.
If Pashinyan wins it is expected that relations with Russia will be further poisoned bringing serious economic pain. If Pashinyan loses, well, all bets are off. Western governments have already accused Russia of meddling, which is usually a precursor to a refusal to accept the results if the other side wins.
Russia has surely made its preference clear, and it’s not the only one.
Outside Meddling
Moscow has made it clear that it prefers the opposition and hints at the obvious economic consequences should the Pashinyan government continue to turn its back on Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
To reiterate the point, Russia on Saturday recalled its ambassador to Armenia “for consultations.” The Russian Foreign Ministry website explained the move:
“Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Armenia Sergey Kopyrkin has been called to Moscow for consultations in connection with steps by the Armenian leadership aimed at rapprochement with the EU that are causing damage to interaction within the EAEU.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova, along with denouncing Armenia for deleting the phrase “Great Patriotic War” from state documents, recently revealed that Moscow has told Armenia that agreements on Russian supplies of oil and gas at favorable prices could be cut if Armenia continues on the path toward the EU, which is the preferred one in the Pashinyan government.
According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, should Armenia leave the EEU, exports of Armenian goods will shrink by 70-80 per cent while energy and food prices skyrocket.
On the other side, for all the talk of the Trump administration and EU at odds, they continue to work in tandem here.
Trump endorses Pashinyan for re-election in Armenia. pic.twitter.com/cgRZJGsHXS
— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 28, 2026
Earlier in May, the EU held its European Political Community summit in Armenia:
lol yes hosting this in Armenia was definitely not to foster stability but to taunt Russia inside the country they had good relations with until recently. As a bonus, hosting it in Armenia is to further punish Georgia by having it next to us for not doing EU’s bidding and… https://t.co/AUn26a2wIA
— Sopo Japaridze (@sopjap) May 4, 2026
The mission is clear:
Macron in Yerevan: “there are still 4,000 Russian soldiers on Armenian territory & more than 1,000 border guards. Europe must commit to helping this country manage its borders more independently. Europe must commit to serving Armenian sovereignty and the choice for Europe” https://t.co/p2XLsxdhHx pic.twitter.com/m2FqUGpKYQ
— Hov Nazaretyan (@HovhanNaz) May 4, 2026
And spirits were high not dissimilar to when Victoria Nuland was handing out cookies in Kiev:
🇫🇷🇦🇲 Armenians sing the French anthem to Macron, who is walking through the streets of Yerevan
Macron feels like a powerful world leader again … he surely enjoys this pic.twitter.com/sJ2pwNnQvk
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) May 4, 2026
Pashinyan’s victory is so important to both US and EU efforts of expanding influence into the Caucasus —and potentially into Central Asia— that it is likely any loss will not be accepted and will be followed by color revolution attempts and violence.
A Pashinyan victory could be even worse.
Economic Suicide
Armenia has been dependent on Russia economically and for security ever since the dissolution of the USSR. It has always made sense for the country to try to broaden its international ties beyond that dependence, and it recently began to do so—yet in a fashion that torpedoes its most important relationship.
The Pashinyan government has gone out of its way to emphatically burn bridges with Moscow in recent years. Some examples:
- Not allowing the head of the Russian Society for Friendship and Cooperation with Armenia into the country.
- A visit by Pashinyan’s wife to Kiev along with a shipment of humanitarian aid, the first sent by Armenia to Ukraine since the outbreak of the war.
- In 2024, Armenia joined the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. The ICC, which much of the world views as no more than a political tool of the West, has an outstanding arrest warrant for Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. That now means that if Putin were to visit Armenia he should face arrest there, and the Pashinyan government might just be crazy enough to do it. Moscow called the ratification by Yerevan a “hostile act.” It’s certainly interesting timing on Armenia’s part considering the statute came into effect all the way back in 2002.
- Armenia has hosted military exercises with the US for the past few years.
- There have been media reports that Armenia will supply weaponry to Ukraine, although those haven’t been reliably confirmed.
- Armenia “froze” its CSTO participation after Pashinyan met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the head of MI6, Richard Moore, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Pashinyan’s office released only a brief notice of the gathering without mentioning anything that was discussed, so we can only guess.
- Armenian opposition leader and dual Russian citizen Samvel Karapetyan has been jailed and his electric company nationalized.
- Taking the Russian keys to the southern Armenia corridor and handing them to Washington (the route is now named after Trump). Russia had designs on a controlling stake in such a corridor, with a point from the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan specifically calling for Russian involvement in such a route. Instead Washington and Yerevan have a deal for the US to hold a 74 percent stake in corridor infrastructure for fifty years, before dropping to a 51 percent stake.Not only does this upset Moscow’s plans for more trade connectivity, but TRIPP will cut Iran out of its role as a go-around between Azerbaijan and its exclave—and Türkiye. From Tehran’s perspective TRIPP looks a lot more like an effort to sever its land border with Armenia—and with it, a land route to Russia—further encircle the country and bring hostile actors to its border, and march US/Turkish/NATO influence across the Caucasus to the Caspian—and potentially beyond into Central Asia.
Do not fear, Pashinyan says.
Armenia doesn’t need to fear possible high prices, as Armenia will soon have a lot of money and visa-free travel to the EU, – stated Pashinyan.
We’ve heard this one somewhere before. pic.twitter.com/V62ltk19Kp
— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) May 28, 2026
It’s an odd strategy considering Armenia is wholly dependent on Russia economically.
- Russia is Armenia’s number one trading partner with about 40% of Armenian exports going to Russia.
- More than 60% of Armenia’s natural gas supplies come from Russia. Armenia also currently pays Russia $165 per thousand cubic meters of gas, well below the market price in Europe.
- Upwards of 7% per cent of Armenia’s GDP comes from remittances from Armenian migrants working in Russia.
Russia also controls Armenia’s railways and Russian companies own or manage Armenian electricity, gas, electronics, and defense-related sectors.
Yet Moscow has kept the kid gloves on, thus far only issuing warnings and cutting imports of some Armenian products like flowers, cognac, wine, and mineral water.
Some Duma officials have issued strong threats but the government line has been one of patience, largely in anticipation of the election and the hope that a more pro-Russian government will replace the current one.
If it doesn’t, it is expected Moscow will take stronger action. It’s a difficult spot for Russia as any economic measures can increase anti-Russian sentiment in the country, which Pashinyan and parts of the media have done their best to stir up.
TRIPP’d Up
The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a 43-kilometer (27 miles) corridor across southern Armenia that would connect Azerbaijan to its autonomous Nakhchivan exclave bordered by Armenia, Türkiye, and Iran, causes fears of a NATO spear into the heart of Asia and control over a Middle Corridor bottleneck.
Yet while it could help Türkiye expand its influence eastwards, there are major flaws to this line of thinking.
The first is simple geography.
None of it will happen without cooperation from Iran and Russia. As we wrote back in November:
Supporters of the Trans-Caspian route envision it linking up with a new pipeline through TRIPP or the existing Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that runs from Azerbaijan to Türkiye via Georgia and then onto Europe.There are reasons why the pipeline hasn’t been built, chief among them that the 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea signed between Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan didn’t solve disputes over submarine cables and pipelines.
Those are governed by the 2003 Tehran Convention, which stipulates environmental standards. Moscow and Tehran repeatedly invoke the Convention to effectively block the construction of pipelines between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
If countries in the region try to proceed despite Moscow and Tehran’s objections, well, good luck with that.
Second, China already looks to be turning away from the Caucasus chaos. It’s all but abandoned its plans to build a deep water port in Georgia on the Black Sea and looks to instead be prioritizing land routes to Iran that could eventually link up to Europe via Türkiye—if those latter two have their heads on straight.
Third, and this is a big one. Climate is wrecking the Caspian where 50 kilometers has already been lost off the coast of Kazakhstan.
What TRIPP does do is inject chaos into the Caucasus region, much the same way Project Ukraine did across Europe, and the way Washington is trying to do in Central Asia as well. It helps ruin Armenian relations with Russia, helps pressure Iran, and it helps prevent connectivity and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization goal of stability of prosperity across Eurasia.
As of now, while Azerbaijan and Türkiye near completion of railway lines intended to link up to TRIPP, construction of anything in southern Armenia has yet to begin. ANy rail project for TRIPP will be another headache in the Moscow-yerevan relationship. That’s because back in 2008 Armenia signed an agreement granting full control over state-owned Armenian Railways to a subsidiary of Russian Railways, which controls investment decisions and development. Pashinyan says this doesn’t apply to TRIPP.
Moscow might feel otherwise.
Meanwhile, Russia might be trying to set up competing connections. For decades, Armenia’s only international rail connection has been to its north through Georgia to Russia and the Black Sea, but Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk recently stated that Russia is beginning negotiations to restore railway lines that would connect to Azerbaijan and Türkiye outside of the TRIPP corridor.
Speaking of Türkiye and Azerbaijan
They are much stronger militarily than Armenia. What kept them in check was Russia.
And they are much stronger economically than Armenia. What kept Armenia afloat was Russia.
What will happen now? It’s highly likely that the two will dominate Armenia economically, if not militarily. The EU and US, which Armenia is turning to, are unlikely to hold Türkiye (a NATO member) and Azerbaijan (a key Israel ally and gas supplier to the EU) in check.
And both Türkiye and Azerbaijan continue to walk a thin line with regards to Russia and Iran.
Türkiye has continued to import plenty of Russia oil and gas but it is now proposing a “military pipeline” to fuel NATO in eastern Europe. The word is the supply will come from Azerbaijan through TRIPP, but it’s more likely it will come from Russia. Azerbaijan oil production is actually in decline while Türkiye still imports nearly half of its supplies from Russia and is the third largest importer of Russian oil after China and India.
The situation in Azerbaijan with regards to Russia is not so different from what is happening in Armenia as ties have been systematically torpedoed by the Azeri side over the past year and a half. Azerbaijan just signed agreements with Ukraine to co-produce weaponry with Ukraine.
Another SMO?
Popular Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov recently made waves when he suggested it’s time for a special military operation in Armenia. His comments:
“We must very clearly formulate our goals and objectives. We must explain: the games are over. To hell with international law and the international order. If, for our national security, it was necessary to start a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, why, based on the same considerations, can we not start a special military operation in other points of our zone of influence?”
While Armenia is not Ukraine (it has a comparatively miniscule population and hardly any defense sector), if it allows itself to be controlled and increasingly armed by NATO states or we see drones launching from Armenia, it is not out of the question.
The situation could become much more tense following a Pashinyan victory, especially if Armenia tries to evict Russia from its military base in Gyrumi, Armenia, which hosts roughly 3,000 troops. For now Moscow doesn’t think that’ll happen. Here’s secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu:
“As for the Russian base, it is still active and functioning, and we do not yet see any reasons or threats that would prevent it from remaining where it is.” The signing of the strategic partnership agreement between Armenia and the United States “looks more like an election campaign or assistance in an election campaign.”
I guess we’ll see.
Loads of Russians fearing that they would be mobilized moved to Erevan after the outbreak of the SMO. They have pushed rents up in the city. Not appreciated by the Armenians so there are also micro-tensions that could play out.
Hard not to call Russia an idiot. What amazes is that after decade of chaos western money still flows to NGO’s like in Belarus and other Russian influence spheres.
In case of Armenia, Russia could have crushed their economy securing a 100% win for a Russian friendly election party. Never underestimate how stupid voters are, never underestimate how corrupt the EU is. Well see you at the next SMO.
Please, us mere mortals are not fit to divine St Gorby (RIP) and St Putin’s 7D chess moves. ♟️
‘Hov Nazaretyan
@HovhanNaz
Macron in Yerevan: “there are still 4,000 Russian soldiers on Armenian territory & more than 1,000 border guards. Europe must commit to helping this country manage its borders more independently. Europe must commit to serving Armenian sovereignty and the choice for Europe”‘
I put that through my semantic analyzer and came up with the following-
‘Macon in Yerevan: “There will be 4,000 NATO soldiers on Armenian territory & more than 1,000 NATO border guards. Europe will take control of Armenia’s borders via Brussels. Europe will ensure Armenian sovereignty serves Europe and we will make the choices. They don’t get to choose’.
This is all starting to sound like the Ukraine back in late 2013.
I can’t believe Armenians are big on CSTO, EAEU, and Russia after all of them failed to protect Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh against Azerbaijan. They’re all useless, might as well get it on with the EU! 🇪🇺
It was the current Armenian government that willingly abandoned Nagorno Karabakh. The current prime minister, the one you likely support, just literally said so. Please take your propaganda elsewhere.
It may be difficult to comprehend, but many Armenians believe Russia, not Pashinyan, is responsible for the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. This is why Pashinyan has their support.
So let me get this straight –
1. Azerbaijan invades Karabakh while CSTO and Russia failed to prevent it.
2. Russia brokers a ceasefire while Azerbaijan continued to strangle Karabakh with blockades.
3. Armenia under Pashinyan sees the writing on the wall – that there is no way to militarily unblock Karabakh by Armenia alone without the help of the CSTO which they won’t do – and gets into realpolitik mode, the lack of which was/is the reason for the long drawn out Ukraine conflict as opined by Mearshimer and others.
Armenia under Pashinyan hedges by turning to the EU and the West and somehow he’s the one at fault while CSTO and Russia are completely faultless? If the CSTO worked as promised, none of this would’ve / should’ve happened. Since it is clearly and demonstrably not working, only a fool would continue to pin all their hopes on these failed institutions for their country’s safety.
My comment is only looking at this from Armenia’s perspective, not the grand strategy which is the domain of the Great Powers like Russia and the US.
In this you could say the Azeris armed by Turkey and Israel (NATO/US) was fighting against Russia and a CSTO member Armenia. Since Russia and the CSTO are clearly unable (or rather unwilling) to defend Armenia then what else can they do but turn to the “other side”?
St Putin’s 7D chess is working as brilliantly as dead-n-buried Gorby’s! Great success! 🤦♀️
Armenia never recognized NK as their own territory, so why on Earth would Russia jump in to defend it?
Your supposed argument is that Armenia should turn to the side of the two nation’s that killed most Armenians the last 100 years and abandon the side of the country that guaranteed its access to energy and security. While waiving a EU flag in your comment.
Armenia risks being eaten alive by Turkey and Azerbaijan and the EU will do absolutely nothing.
Some nations just seem to actively pursue disaster.
You did not get it straight —
1. Pashinyan gets rid of his military’s top echelon, and then gets sorely beaten by Azeri forces
2. Russia saves his bacon, and he starts telling everyone that Karabakh is not Armenia and pulls Armenian troops from there
3. Russia will not fight for Armenia, especially if Armenia is not fighting for Armenia and Azerbaijan takes over the Karabakh and Pashinyan’s main opposition loses it’s power base. Oops.
4. Pashinyan blames Russia for all this.
With the full support of the EU and US propaganda machines and some not-completely-honest electoral procedures he can convince enough Armenians of his shenanigans to win elections.
Honestly, neither EU, NATO or USA can provide any military or economic support worth a crap to Armenia. Geography still means a lot.
Meanwhile, Russia just ended the North-Caucasus Economic Forum: apparently Russia, China and the Gulf Wealth Funds will start investing heavily in the Russian regions just North of the border. Too bad Armenia is going to miss all that economic activity…
The idiocy. Well, it doesn’t burn. It has become too typical.
Armenia, with one (count ‘em), one international train line, with no border with an EU member (Turkiye doesn’t count because the EU claque no longer wants Turkiye — too many Turks), is in what kind of position?
Geographically: untenable. Historically: errrr, complicated. See: Georgia, its northern un-EU’d neighbor.
Problems:
—Armenia is one more baby basket case being asked to get into a car with a stranger (okay, it’s that nice Ursula von der Leyen). See: Kosovo. See: the unfortunate Bosnia and Herzegovina. See: Moldova.
—Here in the “old EU,” Italy, I am already seeing opposition to further expansion because the center of gravity of the EU is now pitched into the Lands of Resentment. See: Kaja Kallas. See: Polish delusions of grandeur.
—And there’s Ukraine. The opposition to Ukraine going into “fast-track” talks with the EU just because Zelenskyyy sez so is already eliciting loud and tart opposition here.
—As for me, as I have mentioned before: The candidate waiting the longest is Albania. I will wait till Albania joins up before entertaining any talk of Armenia or Moldova. (And maybe I’ll start insisting that the EU hypocrites revive the Turkish application — but that would be asking too much of the Franco-German Axis of Dubious Decisions.)
PS: I’m getting more vu jà dé. Let us recall, brethern and sistren, our discussions of how Iran’s rugged mountain ranges and control of the narrow, shallow Persian Gulf mean that any adventure by the Coalition of Servitors of Big Oil would run into reality. Subito subito, as we say here in Torino.
And here we are.
‘Here in the “old EU,” Italy, I am already seeing opposition to further expansion because the center of gravity of the EU is now pitched into the Lands of Resentment.’ — Yes, the natives are getting restless. I’m sure you noticed last Friday’s general strike. The strike schedule for June is impressive:
https://striketracker.app/strikes-in-italy
“The Lands of Resentment” is a very polite phrase. I prefer “The Butthurt Zone”, but that’s just me. De gustibus non disputandum est.
Maxwell Johnston: Here in Piemonte, source of the Risorgimento, and bonet, things in general are rather calm. The strike was complicated by this weekend being a holiday weekend, and today, Monday, makes a ponte to the official holiday tomorrow.
I went to the marches (I think that I attended four demonstrations) during the general strikes last fall. It is a good way to “take the temperature” of Italians.
And Italians truly do not want Kaja Kallas and the ultracorrupt government of Latvia running things in the EU.
domani: Viva la Repubblica!
Wow. Some of the previous commenters.
Anyway.
1. I would add that in addition to Russia, there is the Iran energy angle. Specifically, and I think I’ve mentioned this in one of my comments a month or two ago, right now Armenia and Iran have a gas-for-electricity swap agreement, whereby the Iranians send in pipeline gas, and the Armenians provide them with…I think 600 MW worth of electricity in exchange? But basically, the terms are 75% of the electricity generated from that gas goes back to Iran, and the other 25% stays in Armenia.
I have to believe that Pashinyan, at the behest of his Euro-American masters, is out to wreck this agreement as well, though I do not think he has explicitly said so thus far. Witness Vance in Yerevan recently blathering on about building “modular nuclear reactors” (which, the American version, are all still in prototype design stage, though to be fair, at least one company actually broke ground somewhere in Kansas, I think). This is at the precise point when the Iranians were negotiating about expanding it…
…so the point is, this is multi-dimensional economic suicide. Fortunately, we’ve seen this sort of thing many times before, and look at how well places like Latvia and Bulgaria are doing…
2. I am a little surprised that you didn’t just quote Putin’s direct comments from his Astana presser, which were along the lines of – the moment trade association with the EU switches on, quasi-free trade with Russia switches off. For obvious reasons, it’s like the Northern Ireland problem in Brexit, there has to be a customs border established somewhere. Similarly with cheap gas, the discounted price arrangement is per some EAEU statute, but the moment Armenia switches to EU, the discount goes away.
At least, that’s how Putin the lawyer phrased it. I haven’t read the actual docs myself, as a disclaimer.
As well, there is an immigration angle for those Armenians who are in Russia. Because, apparently, under EAEU auspices Armenians do not have to follow all the statutory immigration policies – and here I am completely relying on Putin’s description of it – but exiting from the EAEU would mean a bunch of them, basically, would have to go back to Armenia, at least for a time. Parenthetically, the Russian government has been really tightening the screws on immigration and migrant workers in the past year, legislatively, I mean.
Funny thing is, Russian media in the past week did a full court press on explaining all of these economic consequences, but at the same time kind of admitted that no-one in Armenia is listening. That the old “join the EU and you’ll have EU salaries with local prices” propaganda trick is still working, for Pashinyan. I guess after the elections we’ll have a week’s worth of the same Russian media bemoaning their lack of influence abroad relative to the West…again.
3. The SMO talk. Right now, it all sounds to me like hot air, for several reasons.
– The logistics of it for the Russians would be…fairly complex, to put it mildly.
– Neutralizing any American military presence there could conceivably be outsourced to Iran. Which would be just as antsy about US bases in the area as the Russians, perhaps even more so.
– There is not the same strategic (read: nuclear) threat as of US missiles in Eastern Ukraine (3 minute flight time to Moscow).
HOWEVER. Prospectively, if the US firmly establishes itself in the (now greatly impoverished) Armenia, the next logical step is…Georgia. Right next door, and studiously neutral since the 2008 war, and on the US naughty list as evidenced by the Western-driven protests a year or two ago, when Tbilisi passed that “foreign agents” law cribbed from FARA.
If, down the line, US uses Armenia to foment a “color revolution” in Georgia, and if this succeeds, then the Russians would almost certainly be drawn into some kind of a military confrontation – to protect their Black Sea assets (right next door), to protect the two unrecognized breakaway regions, etc. That’s when the Armenian question can really come into play for Moscow, I think…
Safety First (and Maxwell Johnston below): Thanks for your comments with their focus on economic integration, mobility of labor, status of residents, and EU propaganda.
I tend to focus on geography, EU propaganda, historical problems, and the obvious self-absorption of the EU elites.
The long and the short of it is that the U S of A is making mischief because Trump and his yes-men and yes-women focus on finding weakness. This is a “special talent” of Trump that Yves Smith has pointed out repeatedly. And like the international rinky-dink trade route proposed by the U S of A to link India with Saudi Arabia with Haifa with Piraeus by land, sea, train, camel, and dog sled, the trippy idea of TRIPP is not likely to succeed.
Conor, thanks for your regular updates on the situation in the south Caucasus. With everything else going elsewhere, it’s easy to overlook this smoldering mess.
All three members of the Caucasus Trio (in contrast to the Baltic Trio) are tightly linked to Russia, both economically and socially (all three have huge diasporas in Russia, both guest workers traveling to Russia visa-free and also Russian citizens of Armenian/Azeri/Georgian descent). If you live in Moscow for a few years, it’s nearly impossible not to encounter a doctor/lawyer/accountant with an Armenian surname (they are heavily over-represented in the professions, like another ethnic group which I won’t name).
“…..it is likely any loss will not be accepted and will be followed by color revolution attempts and violence.” — I agree with this 100%.
“A Pashinyan victory could be even worse.” — It will be worse, at least for ordinary Armenians, if Russia really turns the screws economically.
Pashinyan’s policies are so utterly foolish and contrary to Armenia’s long-term interests that I can only assume that he’s personally on the receiving end of all manner of lavish promises from the EU and USA.
The other two members of the Trio are getting on reasonably well with Moscow. Azerbaijan and Russia recently agreed to close the ugly chapter of the December 2024 Azerbaijan jet crash (Russia agreed to pay compensation), and trade is thriving. Georgia and Russia still do not have official diplomatic relations following the 2008 dust-up, but trading relations are good. No hard proof to offer up here, but I suspect that Georgian middlemen are making a mint on sanctions dodging. In Moscow, I have drunk many a bottle of genuine Coca-Cola with Georgian labeling.
We don’t live in a world of good and evil, but competing evils. Waring Mafia states, and the Russian state is as cynical and ruthless as it’s English speaking rivals.
Russia is no protector of Armenia: she stood by during the genocide in 1915, opposed Sevres Armenia, handed back Armenian lands around Kara and Ani to Turkey because she didn’t want a viable Armenian state. In all her forms (Tsarist, Bolshevik, Putinist) – this has been the policy. Nahivhevan was given to Azerbaijan (after the genocide of its Armenian majority) and Karabhak was forced in the Azeri SSR (absent the Lachin corridor to connect to Armenia), petitioning Soviet officials repeatedly to accede to Armenia. Request denied! Moscow wanted frozen conflicts to “I termediate as a stabilizing force”: Transdnieatria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Karabhak.
After the wars of the 1990s, much Azeri territory was taken and the more liberal Ter Petrosyan wanted to pursue a land for peace deal with Baku, knowing Azerbaijan would recover her strength so better to press for autonomy while there was still leverage. Moscow maneuvered with the “Karabakh mafia” of Armenian hard-line nationalists to scuttle the deal. The internal dimension that many people skim over is that this witches brew of Refuseniks (Russia linked Armenian oligarchs and Karabhak linked ultranationalists) had taken Armenia’s as a “hostage, for safekeeping ” but ran it into the ground through corruption and nepotism and allowed it to stagnate and fester just to maintain their political control. The old school defense officials and ministers were part of this and were dismissed, when they were needed most.
There are no heros here, and Pashinyan is engaged in a dangerous game. My guess is that Russia & Iran will intervene (with China’s support), but against Azerbaijan via the land border at the most vulnerable point in the Caucuses against a brittle regime. Turkey will do nothing, she specialises in hybrid warfare,.attacking civilians and looting weaker neighbours.