Author Archives: Yves Smith

Bitcoin Bubble or New Virtual Currency?

Yves here. I’ve heretofore avoided the topic of Bitcoin, since I recall the brief fad of the Second Life currency, which then flamed out impressively. And Bitcoin already has had the US Treasury clear its throat and say if market participants try exchanging Bitcoin for dollars, it takes a dim view of that. Recall that the IRS threatened to tax frequent flier miles, but later dropped that idea. But there is a more obvious choke point with Bitcoin, and the Treasury may come up with others if it were to be used as commercial tender. Nevertheless, the fact that Treasury has taken notice suggests that at least some readers are interested in it as well.

Will Cyprus Be Contained? (Updated)

In March 2007, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said that he thought the impact of losses on subprime mortgages was likely to be contained. It took five months for events to start proving him wrong. August 2007 marked the onset of the first acute phase of the global financial crisis, when the asset backed commercial paper market seized up.

Last week, in a press conference, Bernanke indicated that he thought the likelihood of the crisis in Cyprus having larger ramifications was limited, and avoided using the “c” word. But the message was similar to that of March 2007.

So are we likely to see the sort of delay between the assessment and the onset of trouble, as we did in 2007, or is Cyprus a nothingburger, as the Troika and many investors contend?

Links 3/23/13

Repeat After Me, Cyprus Is (Was) Not a Tax Haven

Cyprus is over as an international banking center, which the Financial Times reports was one of Berlin’s objectives for its rescue. However, the business press (and yours truly following them) has referred to Cyprus as a tax haven. That description is part of the PR campaign to justify punishing the island.

Sheila Bair Talks about Bank Greed, JP Morgan London Whale Hearings on Bill Moyers

Not surprisingly, Sheila Bair was appalled by the revelations from Carl Levin’s hearings on the JP Morgan London Whale losses. She discusses not only what it says about the bank, but about the state of regulation in the US.

BRICs Cook the Climate (Part Two)

By Patrick Bond, a political economist with longstanding research interests and NGO work in urban communities and with global justice movements in several countries. He teaches political economy and eco-social policy, directs the Centre for Civil Society and is involved in research on economic justice, geopolitics, climate, energy and water. Cross posted from Triple Crisis

A secondary objective of the Copenhagen deal – aside from avoiding emissions cuts the world so desperately requires – was to maintain a modicum of confidence in carbon markets. Especially after the 2008 financial meltdown and rapid decline of European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, BASIC leaders felt renewed desperation to prop up the ‘Clean Development Mechanism’ (CDM), the Third World’s version of carbon trading

Cyprus Capitulates to Eurozone (Updated)

Bloomberg tweeted about 40 minutes ago that Cyprus had approved the legislation necessary for the EU bailout, but still does not have a news story up. The Wall Street Journal as of now has a “Breaking News” item on its website, again no story yet, “Cyprus lawmakers approve key bills aiming to secure broader bailout package.” So this looks to be a done deal.

Links 3/22/13

Wolf Richter: A CEO Explains Why He Sold A German Soul To The Chinese

Yves here. I find this story of a Chinese acquisition gone pear shaped interesting for several reasons. Since academic research consistently finds that the majority of acquisitions are losers for the buyers, it’s not a surprise that the deal did not work out. But this one looks to be a particularly extreme fail. Having worked a bit on international deals, and for companies operating in foreign markets, cross border transactions have an even lower success rate than domestic ones. The big reason is the one mentioned here, which is marked cultural incompatibility between the seller and buyer. Here the Chinese did less badly than they could have (they could have tried forcing Chinese practices on the German operation, which would have destroyed the value of the asset). But the logic of the transaction was unclear. Was it technology transfer? Consolidation? It appears both might have been goals, and neither happened very much.

While Cyprus Sinks, France and Slovenia Start to Founder

The official sick man list of Europe has long been the PIIGS, or if you prefer, the GIPSI: Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal. As the Cyprus restructuring drama has moved into high gear, it’s obscured news of a serious deterioration in the French economy and the weakened condition of Slovenia, which has a population and GDP roughly 1.5 times as large as that of Cyprus.

Krugman’s Bad Math on Cyprus

Paul Krugman, in a post earlier today, Cyprus: The Sum of All FUBAR, acts as if he has figured out what is the real problem with Cyprus. The only problem is his math is all wrong, and a better analysis undermines his major assertions.

Link 3/21/13

ECB to Push Cyprus Over the Brink

Mr. Market decided yesterday that the fact that the Cypriot finance minister, Michalis Sarris, was meeting as previously scheduled with Russian officials meant all would be well. And even better…Bernanke said the Cyprus banking mess would be contained. So why worry?

The ECB just announced that it will extend the ELA to Cyprus only through Monday. After that, it will cut off Cyprus if it has not knuckled under to an EU/IMF deal.