Category Archives: Coffee Break

From the Narrative Collapse, a New World Will Emerge: Will It Be Different?

In the information age, it is difficult to make sense of events. Endless amounts of information do not necessarily coalesce into a coherent narrative with explanatory meaning. The breakdown of the international order is precipitating the emergence of different narratives that engender competing truths. The German writer Goethe said: “When eras are on the decline, […]

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Coffee Break: Armed Madhouse – Trump’s Falklands Temptation

In 1982, the Falklands War rescued Margaret Thatcher from political collapse and turned her into a wartime icon. But the deeper lesson of that conflict is more dangerous: diversionary war is appealing to failing leaders, whether democratic or authoritarian. Donald Trump’s long-standing fascination with invading Venezuela, documented in his first term and now echoed by renewed U.S. deployments, a favored opposition proxy, and drug-war legal framing, fits the same dual pattern that produced the Falklands: a desperate leader seeking escape through external confrontation, and the hope of political resurrection through a short, decisive victory. The Falklands Effect turned crisis into triumph for Thatcher, but a Venezuelan conflict today could result in disaster for Trump. The danger is serious, but the power of Trump’s temptation is quietly growing.

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Coffee Break: Unstable Climate-Unstable Economy, Gambling and the Decline of Sport, the Last of the Great Men of Molecular Biology, and SNAP

Part the First: Financial Stability and Climate Instability.  Or, could a climate-related shock trigger a recession?  This is a question that could be asked only by an economist, or two, as in Advancing research on financial stability and climate-related financial risk, an editorial last week in Science: Climate change–related natural disasters such as floods, fires, […]

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Coffee Break: Armed Madhouse – The Future of Elite Forces

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have exposed a new reality: the battlefield is becoming too transparent, too fast, and too automated for mass, low-skill infantry to survive. In that environment, militaries will not get rid of human fighters — they will narrow them. The future elite will be smaller, more cognitively trained, and embedded inside human–machine combat cells that can sense, decide, and act without higher headquarters. Their defining virtue won’t be brute courage but restraint: the ability to override automation, to make lawful and proportional choices when AI reaches its limits. But we should not mistake this refinement for stability. As more states adopt AI-enabled elite formations, the competition for speed, autonomy, and informational dominance may actually make escalation easier, not harder.

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Coffee Break: Wither Sport, Unwellness, Chimpanzee Metacognition, The Sokal Hoax, and a Political Temblor

Part the First: Wither Sport in This Modern World? The World Series ended last week with two games for the ages.  These were the only MLB baseball games I watched all season, and as a baseball man of the old school, I picked well.  Both games between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue […]

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Coffee Break: Armed Madhouse – The Poseidon Problem

Russia’s new Poseidon weapon, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed undersea drone, threatens coastal cities with massive radioactive destruction. Its speed, stealth, and long range make very difficult to defend against, forcing adversaries to consider ruinously expensive countermeasures. This article examines Poseidon’s capabilities, the challenge of undersea defense, and why renewed arms control is the only rational response.

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Coffee Break: Political Grownups, Bending Time, CDC at Sea, Snakebites, and AI Again

Part the First: Where Have All the Grownups Gone?  Corey Robin is always worth reading (the first edition of The Reactionary Mind is much better than the second), and lately he has been more active publicly, here asking about the grownups: For a long time now, I’ve thought that you’re never really a grownup until […]

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