Category Archives: Doomsday scenarios

Negotiations with Greece Close to Breakdown as Budget Strains Worsen

Things are not looking good for Greece.

Nomi Prins: The Volatility/Quantitative Easing Dance of Doom

The battle between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ of global financial policy is escalating to the point where the ‘haves’ might start to sweat – a tiny little. This phase of heightened volatility in the markets is a harbinger of the inevitable meltdown that will follow the grand plastering-over of a systemically fraudulent global financial system.

Is There an Easy Way Out? Private Marketable Debt and Its Implications for a Eurozone Break-up

What are some of the more granular costs and risks of a Eurozone exit? This post looks at France as a test case.

Yanis Varoufakis: Presenting an Agenda for Europe at Ambrosetti

If you followed Yanis Varoufakis before he became a household word (at least in Europe and in finance circles), you’ll recognize that he is making a layperson-friendly case for the Eurozone reforms that he, Stuart Holland, and Jamie Galbraith call A Modest Proposal. A new wrinkle is that he argues that the scarcity of bonds eligible for QE argues for one of its ideas, infrastructure spending funded by the EIB (those bonds would presumably be eligible for QE purchases).

“File Under Improving Economy, Not”

Some economic sightings from house skeptics.

Penciling Out Greece’s Payment Deadlines and Budget Needs

Yves here. Unlike many other comments on the state of Greece’s finances, this post takes a stab at Greece’s ongoing budget needs as well as its various debt due dates. Note that one uncertainty flagged here has been resolved in Greece’s favor. The Greek government will receive €550 million this month from the Hellenic Financial Stability Facility.

The Obama Administration, Shell, and the Fate of the Arctic Ocean

Royal Dutch Shell wants to drill in the Chukchi Sea this summer and that could, in the long term, spell doom for one of the last great, relatively untouched oceanic environments on the planet.

John Helmer: Cyprus is More Important to Russia than Greece, but Not This Important

What is the significance of Cyrprus’ military basing agreement with Russia for Russia’s naval and air forces in the Mediterranean?

Greek Kolotumbas Increasing at Disconcerting Rate

I’m at risk of getting whiplash from watching the speed at which Greece is changing its position on key issues. And while I’d be delighted to be proven wrong, there are reasons to think this pattern does not bode well for the government’s ongoing negotiations.

John Helmer: What is Russia’s Answer to Greece’s Plan B? Smile, Blow the Whistle, Pass the Red Card

Helmer’s post confirms our view that Russia will not rescue Greece, and for many of the same reasons that we’ve stated.

The Cost of Delaying Action to Stem Climate Change

The cost of delaying climate action has been studied extensively. A one-decade delay in addressing climate change would lead to about a 40% increase in the net present value cost of addressing climate change.

The Alternative in Greece

Let us begin with what should be indisputable: the Eurogroup agreement that the Greek government was dragged into on Friday amounts to a headlong retreat.

ECB and IMF to Greece: No Escaping the Austerity Hairshirt

We warned readers who are still keen to take the Syriza “Hope is coming” slogan as something more promising that a subconscious echo of the Obama 2008 “Hope and change” campaign, that the memo that Greece signed with the Eurogroup last week did not represent a victory or a lessening of austerity. The comments by the ECB and the IMF on the reform list from Greece submitted Monday confirmed our earlier readings, that austerity is still very much on in Greece.

Mathew D. Rose: Greece – Dead Man Walking

Rose focuses on an issue that reader Swedish Lex and other have pointed out: the heavy-handed actions of Germany in the tempestuous negotiations between the Eurozone and Greece have wound up being a major own goal.

But the bigger issue that Rose raises is that last week’s ugly negotiations, in combination with the fiasco in Ukraine, is exposing Germany as a lousy hegemon, which he argues is producing a political crisis in Germany and fracture lines in Europe.