Even though I pride myself on being a constitutional cynic, truth be told even I harbor a wee bit of optimism. For instance, even thought I regularly write about how Things Are Going to Hell, Fast, I privately assume I am a pessimist and maybe a bit of a crank too, so things might not […]
Read more...We’ve warned for some time that this downturn is likely to see more companies entering bankruptcy wind up being liquidated rather than continuing to operate thanks to Chapter 11, which allows companies to hold creditors at bay, renegotiate debt and restructure operations, with the idea that an ongoing concern will be able to provide better […]
Read more...Note the dramatic fall in Japanese exports in February was relative to the year-ago level, but that does not make the outcome any less ugly. From Bloomberg: Overseas shipments fell 49.4 percent from a year earlier, the sharpest decline since at least 1980, when the government started to keep comparable data, the Finance Ministry said […]
Read more...When some deemed the Fed’s move today to expand its balance sheet by as much as a trillion dollars plus as “shock and awe”, I recalled that when that term was first used, at the beginning of the US invasion of Iraq. The notion was a display of superior force would lead to quick capitulation. […]
Read more...Too much corn pone personal story, not enough real interview. But I must say, Bernanke is either an astoundingly self contained man or is on the best meds modern science has to offer. Paul Kedrosky thinks this appearance is either wildly bullish or wildly bearish, and is somewhat inclined to the former view. I see […]
Read more...So much for Ken Lewis’ cheery prediction that Bank of America would be profitable in 2009, although Bank of America could always be the exception. McKinsey is generally considered to have the best financial services practice among the major consulting firms, and being overly gloomy does not endear one to clients. The profit forecast is […]
Read more...Readers may have noticed that Team Obama has put on a pre-G-20 session push to have participants spend more to pull the global economy out of its nosedive. The New York Times gave a short summary: In recent days, the White House has begun signaling that when leaders of the Group of 20 nations meet […]
Read more...Submitted by Rolfe Winkler, CFA, publisher of OptionARMageddon.com Policy-makers not only misunderstand the economic crisis, they continue to underestimate it. Consequently, solutions to date have not only failed to “fix” anything, they have made the problem worse. The problem isn’t falling asset prices, it’s not rising foreclosures, it’s too much debt. With an assist from […]
Read more...While Wolfgang Munchau’s latest comment for the Financial Times, “An L of a recession – reform is the way out,” fell short of being apocalyptic, it was the gloomiest piece I can recall coming from him. Munchau argues that the world is going into what is politely referred to as an L shaped recession, but […]
Read more...Reader Nivethan pointed to a Bloomberg story, “China Says 8% Growth Within Reach Using $585 Billion Stimulus.” This may be a tad more significant than it appears (I also looked at Xinhua, but got the singular, and probably completely unfair impression that Wen’s speech to the party Congress was of the “give everyone at least […]
Read more...Lousy economic conditions are leading many consumers to postpone car purchases. Lower levels of industry sales will increase the bleeding at GM and Chrysler. One factor I have not seen mentioned much in any of the bailout discussions is whether we might see a reversal of the long-term trend of an increasing number of cars […]
Read more...Note the wording Goldman used in describing the implications of the decline in income tax revenues in China, via Bloomberg (hat tip reader MIchael): “Tax data show much sharper deceleration in income and consumption in the past few months than suggested by official retail sales or income growth figures,” Goldman Sachs analysts Joshua Lu, Caroline […]
Read more...Japan has been hit by a double-whammy: the global fall in trade, made worse by its (formerly) rising yen. While deteriorating conditions in China generally get more media attention, the falloff in Japan is stunning and serious. Japan has spent more than a decade stagnant, but the overall growth figures mask the fact that the […]
Read more...In case you managed to miss it, Japan has taken a huge fall in its relative economic standing by more or less standing still for almost a generation. The comparative fall is 30%. And even though visitors to Japan do not see the superficial signs of distress (infrastructure is well maintained, people are neatly dressed, […]
Read more...Economy could begin to recover in April, claims Gordon Brown Telegraph. Subhead: “The economy could begin to recover as early as April 2, Gordon Brown has signaled.” If by “recover” one means “temporarily looks as if it is no longer getting worse,” even I might agree that is possible. From Merrill Lynch’s Fund Manager Survey […]
Read more...