Yves here. There’s been a heated debate among members of the commentariat as to whether the latest proposal by the Greek government to the Eurogroup ministers was a significant concession or a carefully worded formulation that did not give much ground. This interview with Dimitri Lascaris, a top securities lawyer in Canada, gives a nuanced discussion of that issue, including the politics on the Greek and German sides.
Read more...Things are not going well for Greece. It appears Syriza has largely capitulated to the demands of the Troika.
Read more...Greece is facing a cash shortfall even sooner than expected.
Read more...The ECB seems to be keeping Greece on a short leash by approving only a small increase in the ELA.
Read more...As Greece’s struggles to secure relief from impossible-to-pay-debt that served to prop up otherwise insolvent French and German banks, and to be permitted to implement measures to reduce distress and restore growth, more and more observers are recognizing that this is really a struggle over democratic self-control versus rule by an unaccountable technocracy with inflexible rules, using finance as their enforcement weapon. This speech in the European Parliament today by UKIP leader Neil Farage echoes some of the themes of Mathew Rose’s post. Rose also explains how the many Germans justify the counterproductive destruction of a society that they have turned into a vassal state.
Read more...The negotiations between Greece and the Eurogroup are on a worse trajectory than conventional wisdom would have you believe.
Read more...his is an excellent background piece on how Greece got where it is and how its various bailouts were structured. It also helps explain the past and current roles the various members of the Troika play and discusses the prospects for Greece achieving its aims.
Read more...Yanis Varoufakis describes how he was presented with one memo before the Eurogroup meeting and a very different one at the meeting proper. No wonder the Greek side got upset with how the meeting was conducted.
Read more...As we indicated, we were doubtful that a deal with Greece on its bailout could get done, since if nothing else the two sides had irreconcilable positions on structural reforms. That was one of the biggest reasons for Greece rejecting the idea of extending the current bailout, that they did not want the strings attached, such as continued privatizations and further “progress” on labor-crushing market reform. The only way an agreement could have been reached would have been for Greece to capitulate on these issues, which seemed unlikely given how Syriza had risen to 80% approval ratings in the polls based on its Troika-defying stance.
So it is not surprising to learn that the bailout talks are over, with no agreement reached. But what is suprising, and not encouraging, is that if anything the Eurogroup hardened its stance against Greece and expected it to capitulate.
Read more...Will America’s insistence that Europe, Russia, and Ukraine act against their economic interest ultimately lead the US to lose Europe?
Read more...We’re offering two posts on Ukraine tonight, in part because Greece dominated our coverage last week, and each post covers a different aspect of this devolving situation. Ilargi focuses on the thin, as in WMD-in-Iraq-like, justifications for escalation
Read more...Ukraine is going into an IMF program in even worse condition that Greece with its various loans from the Troika in 2010, and we can see how well borrowing more when you were already overindebted worked out for Greece. In addition, this interview with Michael Hudson makes clear that the loan to Ukraine is wildly out of line with IMF rules, making it painfully obvious that this “rescue” is all about propping up the government so it can continue to wage war rather than economic development.
Read more...Yves here. I know some readers have begged to differ, but Very Serious People are not described in the same terms as pop culture icons. Thus, as Bill Black points out, the “rock star” branding of Varoufakis is a way to depict him as a colorful, entertaining lightweight.
Read more...After a collapse of negotiations over whether and how to resolve Syriza’s demands for a new deal with the Eurozone with the insistence of its counterparties that the new government adhere to the terms of its existing deal, technical discussions are set to resume Friday. The drop-dead date is Monday, since any extension or modification of the current so-called bailout needs to happen by February 28, when it expires. The lead time is necessary because the Germany Bundestag and the Finnish Parliament must approve any new or extended deal. But what is the real state of play?
Read more...Helmer’s deep dives into Ukraine’s corruption are a cross between Graham Greene underworldliness with a contemporary veneer of financial wheeling and dealing, plus lots of think tank laundered influence peddling. For those not up on the dramatis personae in Ukraine, Igor (also spelled Ihor) Kolomoisky is one of the wealthiest men in Ukraine.
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