Category Archives: Investment outlook

Five Year TIPS Yields Below Zero

The movement in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities is a sign of investor desperation to find any shelter from inflation. And TIPS are only a partial inflation hedge. Their yield adjustment keys off the consumer price index, which due to modification to the index (to contain CPI adjusted Federal benefits) lags broader measures of inflation. From […]

"When Bankers Fear to Act"

Floyd Norris in the New York Times has an interesting article that laments the fact that, unlike past financial crises, no one has stepped forward to encourage the sort of risk-taking needed to restore order to the markets. Even though I enjoyed the piece, ultimately, the effort to look for a single agent to rally […]

The Fed’s Self-Delusion (Inflation Edition)

Individuals and institutions are capable of considerable self-deception when faced with difficult choices. The Fed’s latest signals about what it intends to do about inflation are a classic example. Both Bloomberg and the Financial Times tell us that the central bank stands ready to raise rates quickly to ward off inflation. From Bloomberg: Federal Reserve […]

On the Continuing Equity/Credit Market Disconnect

Two pieces today in the Financial Times address the striking disparity in sentiment and prevailing valuations between the credit and equity markets. Debt market investors are (for the most part) acting as if the floor might collapse beneath them, while equity investors are talking as if the downturn is coming to an end. And interestingly, […]

UBS Posts Loss After $14 Billion Writedown

$14 billion? I thought I’d be inured to big negative numbers coming from investment banks by now, but I caught my breath when I read the headline of the Bloomberg story reporting that UBS is taking a further $14 billion in writedowns, resulting in a $11.4 billion loss for the fourth quarter. Remember, when UBS […]

Ben Stein Tells Us It’s All the Traders’ Fault

Here we go again. We have another Ben Stein column, “Can Their Wish Be the Market’s Command?” which says, I kid you not, that we have a bear because a whole bunch of traders got together and made it so. Since undue contemplation of Ben Stein logic is bad for anyone’s mental health, I will […]

"Welfare for Wall Street, Federal Reserve-Style"

Thomas Palley posts only occasionally, but just about everything he writes is first rate, and today’s offering is no exception. Palley argues one of our favorite views, that the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have had more to do with trying to prop up asset values than with stimulating growth. He points out that this […]

Willem Buiter Heaps Scorn on Fed’s 75 Basis Point Rate Cut

Willem Buiter’s immediate reaction to the Fed’s emergency rate cut earlier this week was sharply negative, and upon reflection, his view has become even more critical. Buiter sees the reason for the cut as a “knee jerk” response to the prospect of a sharp fall in equity prices. He looks at the proximate causes of […]

Some Very Blunt Warnings from Soros, El-Erian, Setser, and Other Sensible People

Sentiment has gotten so bad even among CEOs that there is reason to expect a bounce in equities in the not-so-distant future once frayed nerves have calmed a bit, particularly given the report in Bloomberg that Bernanke & Co. are much more sanguine about inflation and therefore are perceived to be ready to make further […]

Less Than Respectful Commentary on the Fed Put and Fiscal Rescue Efforts

It wasn’t enough that the Administration’s fiscal stimulus plan announced last Friday was sufficiently off beam so as to precipitate a global stock market rout. The Fed then put its credibility and some of its remaining firepower on the line to try reverse the gap-downward stock market opening with the in-panic-mode pre-session 75 basis point […]

The Rout in Japan Continues

Another very bad open, and no reason to expect much improvement. From the related Bloomberg story: Japan’s stocks plunged, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average set for its worst two-day drop in more than a decade. The yen strengthened while commodities prices and European shares plunged, adding to concern world economic growth is faltering. Honda […]

Nikkei is Tanking

Normally I don’t go for intra-day fever charts, and the Nikkei was down considerably on Friday before rallying and winding up in positive territory. Nevertheless, the current state of play gives cause for pause: Update 3:00 AM. Yikes: That’s down nearly 4%. Back to the original post: The related Bloomberg story attributes the decline to […]

Inflation or Deflation?

Mere mortal investors and their professional colleagues are (at least if they are honest and have a modicum of sense) a bit confounded as to what to do at this juncture. By all measures, inflationary pressures are gaining strength, and yet recessions lower aggregate demand and with it, price pressures. Ah, but what about the […]

Sentiment Indicators, Sort Of

One thing that market mavens will tell you is that any measures of investment sentiment need to be read with considerable care. For instance, high short interest is considered bullish. Why? If stocks move upwards (and remember, just due to daily noise, stocks move around quite a bit), shorts will have to buy stocks if […]

Markets Want Christmas in January (Rate Cuts Edition)

Although a good deal can happen between now and January 31, the date of the next Fed Open Markets Committee meeting, a 50 basis point rate cut looks more consistent with present economic conditions than do deeper cuts. Most important (and widely ignored) is that the seize-up the money markets is largely a thing of […]