Category Archives: Risk and risk management

Rajiv Sethi: Information, Beliefs, and Trading

Yves here. This is a terrific post, and I think readers who are in the unfortunate position of having to invest in the markets will relate to Sethi’s analysis (personally, I hate trading, I wish it were possible to be a long-term investor, but that’s become an awful lot like driving a Model T on a Nascar track). The use of Intrade data and discussing Obama v. Romney-biased speculators is both clever and makes the discussion accessible. And I must confess to being very attached to my “priors” and too willing to fight the tape!

Treasury Department’s Disingenuous Answers to Elizabeth Warren on Dodd Frank, Too Big to Fail

One of the aggravating facts of life in bureaucracies is having to contend regularly with misrepresentation. And I don’t mean faux friendly corporate bromides like “We’re here to help,” but weasely, technically accurate but substantively misleading statements. A Treasury reply to some questions from Elizabeth Warren is a classic in this genre.

Bill Black: Higher Bank Capital Requirements are Necessary but not Sufficient to Prevent the Next Crisis

By Bill Black, the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One and an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Cross posed from Benzinga

The last ditch efforts to save Larry Summers’ prospective nomination to run the Fed and the comments about his withdrawing from consideration have prompted further discussions of financial regulation. The thrust of the comments is that Summers’ big regulatory idea was that capital requirements are the key and other forms of rules are worthless because they are easy to evade.

The last ditch efforts to save Larry Summers’ prospective nomination to run the Fed and the comments about his withdrawing from consideration have prompted further discussions of financial regulation. The thrust of the comments is that Summers’ big regulatory idea was that capital requirements are the key and other forms of rules are worthless because they are easy to evade.

It’s not only not a good idea, it’s not good because capital requirements can be gamed just like other rules.

James Galbraith, Neil Barofsky, and John Coffee Discuss Lessons from Lehman Meltdown

I have to confess that given the length of this panel discussion presented by Better Markets, I’ve looked only at the start, which is quite promising. Given the caliber of the participants, I’m hoping to get to it over the weekend, since it will be a departure from the bromides the MSM seems to be serving up on this anniversary of the Lehman collapse. This talk is oriented towards a discerning audience and offer more insider detail.

Gaius Publius: Are We Having “Bank Deregulation” Crises or “Unrestricted Capital Flow” Crises?

Yves here. For the last four years, we’ve been highlighting research that has found that high levels of international capital flows are strongly associated with frequent and severe financial crises. Gaius describes how more economists are endorsing this idea, and how the proposed trade deals, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the US-EU trade agreement, will only make matters worse.

Fed’s Jackson Hole Participants to QE-Exit Whacked Emerging Economies: Drop Dead

The latest Fed confab at Jackson Hole is demonstrating that central bankers were so keen to avoid taking much blame for the global financial crisis that they also failed to learn critical lessons from it. That lapse in turn is directly related to the present emerging markets upheaval that has the potential to morph into something worse.

What is Shadow Banking?

There is much confusion about what shadow banking is and why it might create systemic risks. This column presents shadow banking as ‘all financial activities, except traditional banking, which require a private or public backstop to operate’. The idea that shadow banking is something that needs a backstop changes how we think about regulation. Although it won’t be easy, regulation is possible

On the SEC’s Too Little, Too Late “Fabulous Fab” CDO Victory

Narrowly speaking, it’s good that the SEC won its case against ex-Goldman staffer Fabrice Tourre for his role in marketing a toxic CDO to bond insurer ACA. But let’s not kid ourselves as to what this verdict amounts to.

David Dayen: A Revealing Episode in DC Groupthink

So this week I got an education in the mentality of “official” Washington.

Last week I was asked by a DC-based publication to give a comment on Corker-Warner, the flavor-of-the-month proposal to abolish Fannie and Freddie and reform mortgage finance. I basically take the same position as Yves on this issue: all of these GSE 2.0 plans assume a private label MBS market the way the proverbial economist on a desert island assumes a can opener.

Gensler Staring Down Administration and Banks on Derivatives Reform

Yves here. Readers may recall that Gary Gensler, the head of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, is being pushed out by Obama. His planned replacement is so appallingly lightweight (oh, and formerly in a very junior role at Goldman) as to assure that all she’ll be able to do is take dictation from financial firm lobbyists.

But Gensler may be having a last laugh before he leaves office.

Sasha Breger: More Ways That Financiers Suck Wealth From Agricultural Providers (and Ultimately, You)

By Sasha Breger, a lecturer at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver and author of the recent book Derivatives and Development. Her research includes global finance, derivatives, social policy, food, and farming. Cross posted from Triple Crisis

In my last two posts (http://triplecrisis.com/a-great-sucking-sound-part-2/, http://triplecrisis.com/a-great-sucking-sound-part-1/), I addressed the roles of debt, farmland acquisition, and physical commodity hoarding in helping finance siphon wealth from global agriculture. In this final post, I discuss the role of derivatives and insurance markets in this redistributive process.

Sheila Bair: Everything the IMF Wanted to Know About Financial Regulation and Wasn’t Afraid to Ask

Does anybody have a clear vision of the desirable financial system of the future?

Quelle Surprise! US and UK to File Criminal Charges Against Small Fry for Barclay’s Libor Abuses

Now before anyone gets excited about the specter of bankers doing a perp walk, the early word in a Wall Street Journal story on criminal charges being readied against former Barclays bankers says that the prosecutions will target “midlevel traders.” This exercise thus continues the established pattern of small fry serving as human shields for managers and executives.