Links 12/18/2025

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1. Ignacio December 18, 2025 at 7:06 am

   Live. ‘We won’t leave without a solution’: EU leaders meet to decide Ukraine financing Euronews.

   Current headline in this live stream is: ‘I won’t give up,’ says Belgian PM as EU leaders debate reparations loan for Ukraine.

   Very right to say that. So far the best criticism I have found on this matter is in the next link:
   A Cost-Free Reparation Loan that Costs Billions and Reconstructs Nothing – A Critical Look at the Wrangling over the Russian Assets Held at Euroclear

   Main conclusion: And what’s to be gained by taking these risks? The most likely outcome is that Ukraine will not repay the reparation loan and that EU taxpayers will ultimately foot the bill. Why then assume the additional financial, reputational, and geopolitical risks of deploying Russia’s frozen assets at all?

   So yes. EU taxpayers on the hook, nothing solved and risks assumed for exactly what? Today we might witness peak EU stupidity. Let’s hope not.

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   1. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 7:18 am

      Maybe the EU is hoping that their 20th sanction package will be the one to finally topple the Russian economy. This could be the one. And that would mean that all these EU countries would be able to zoom in and hoover up all those Russian natural resources for free which will let them pay off those debts. If not, the economies of most EU countries will resemble a smoking hole in the ground with guess who lumbered with all those debts – both official and secret.

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      1. Ignacio December 18, 2025 at 7:35 am

         Well yes. Taking important decisions urgently on the basis of beliefs and hopes without supporting evidence and without serious analysis is a recipe for disasters to come. One question that some hadn’t thought is that, if the seizure is finally done, the people involved today won’t be able to escape blame later.

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         1. bertl December 18, 2025 at 7:46 pm

            Am I correct in thinking that if Russia’s assets are infinitely frozen, it is in all likelihood a war crime, and that all those who vote in favour of this act can be regarded individually as war criminals, giving Russia cause to charge in one of the many war tribunals they will establish to clear the fog of war. Similarly, following the precedent set by the US in Panama and the Jewish state in the Argentine, if any signatory chooses not to turn up for trial when requested, although I’m sure that alternative national governments will co-operate in extraditing them, if no can they be snatched anywhere in the world by Russia or its allies so that they can be presented to the appropriate tribunal? I’m sure it will be a great gift to all those European taxpayer whose money has be spent on dealing out death in the Ukraine rather than helping their own people.

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   2. Samuel Conner December 18, 2025 at 8:14 am

      > nothing solved and risks assumed for exactly what?

      Alexander Mercouris, in commentary 2 or 3 days ago, suggested that the emergency procedures contemplated to impose these costs on EU member states would establish a precedent for centralized budgeting and, in effect, taxation on member states.

      It has long been noted that the Eurozone needs a centralized fiscal authority to complement its centralized monetary authority. Perhaps there is an element of ‘not letting a crisis go to waste’ at work.

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      1. Ignacio December 18, 2025 at 9:22 am

         Here at the EU everyone is saying that pensions must be cut, salaries must be cut and social benefits must be cut because debt, debt debt! and productivity! The same does not apply to expenses in Ukraine (a country which very few want integrated in the EU) because… er… values? The EU is risking a lot politically speaking.

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   3. NN Cassandra December 18, 2025 at 8:42 am

      I again note that this all amounts to paper shuffling, or in these days bit shuffling. It will not result in Ukraine getting Russian tanks and drones built by Russian workers in Russian factories using Russian equipment and electricity. All this will be taken from Ukrainian/Western people, narrative of Russian “paying for the war” is here just to hide the truth.

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      1. eg December 18, 2025 at 10:54 pm

         This. It’s not the spreadsheet that matters — it’s the molecules.

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   4. DJG, Reality Czar December 18, 2025 at 1:43 pm

      Ignacio: Fatto Quotidiano reported this morning that the Italian government has said no to the confiscation, using the words “senza solidi basi giuridiche” — not to be done without a solid foundation in the law. Which, of course, the Euroclear confiscation lacks — it is all a power grab by Ursula von der Leyen with an assist from Kaja Kallas (who just sanctioned Jacques Baud and many in the Valdai Discussion Club with no legal basis). [Trump lurks somewhere in the background, ranging between dementia and resentments.]

      The Council of Europe meets (tomorrow?), which is the meeting attended by each member state. If Meloni says no, the deal may die. Orbán doesn’t have the pull.

      Natch, the crotch-scratching warmongers like Merz and Macron want to ignore Italy. That’s what the Italians are there for — yet if the EU is to be reformed, the impetus has to come from one of the original states. Germany is too addled. In France, the bills for bad politics are falling due. Belgium is controlled chaos. The Netherlands is retreating into insignificance.

      Spain has heft, like Italy, but Spain arrived later.

      The remainder of the EU countries either have no heft, no history, or are too busy gorging like a pig at the trough (yep, looking at you, Polska).

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      1. bertl December 18, 2025 at 7:53 pm

         Germany is likely to be less addled after the next general election.

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      2. Ignacio December 19, 2025 at 4:29 am

         “After long hours of negotiations, the reparations loan for Ukraine has fallen apart. Instead, EU leaders will raise €90 billon on the financial markets to support the country’s fight against Russia. ”

         I believe Spain was playing “i am so in favour of the loan” but at the same time hoping it would fall apart. Typical Sánchez. A piece of good news today. Yet they apparently agreed on joint debt in the last minute though I guess this will require further negotiations on the “joint” side of that agreement.

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2. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 7:13 am

   “Trump administration asking US oil industry to return to Venezuela — but getting no takers”

   Not hard to work out why. If those oil companies tried to return to Venezuela on the back of a US invasion force, then that would make them priority targets. Their personnel might be killed by insurgents and the oil facilities would be under frequent attack as well meaning that they would be able to pump zero oil out of the country. There might even be attacks on US oil tankers waiting to take aboard oil there. And it would not matter what Machado and her wonky opposition promised as they would not be able to deliver.

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   1. rob December 18, 2025 at 7:46 am

      let’s hope the Venezuelans don’t start to send out booby-trapped oil tankers through the blockade, knowing that trump the chump , and his dupes would then haul their trojan oil horse right into some US port…. only to have a disaster on their hands. Then americans might actually wake up.
      or
      maybe chevron just told everyone else….. they “own” Venezuela….and contracts will need to be signed with them before anyone else can help liberate those resources….from those people who actually were born there.

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   2. vao December 18, 2025 at 7:49 am

      I believe the crux of the matter is explained towards the end of the article:

      “Years of sanctions, insufficient investment and political turmoil have since turned what had been a top oil-producing country with vast deposits into one that industry representatives have called a junkyard.”

      A dilapidated oil extraction and processing infrastructure, which would sustain further damages (through bombing or sabotage) in case of a military intervention by the USA. Those oil majors are reluctant to invest billions upon billions to restore all those derricks, pipelines, and terminals even if the access to the oil fields of Venezuela are secured by the military of the USA.

      I suspect that, assuming an intervention ordered by Trump succeeds in overthrowing Maduro and placing the economy of Venezuela under the control of the North American hegemon, the situation will evolve in a way similar to the one after the invasion of Iraq: despite their privileged position, corporations from the USA were reluctant to take over, which gave the Chinese and Russian firms an opportunity to swoop up the Iraqi oil assets.

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   3. jefemt December 18, 2025 at 10:43 am

      Recalling The Prize, it seems the oil folks are ‘bootstrappers’ like no other— believers in markets and consideration being paid. Occasionally, this dovetails with the M I C, hand in glove.

      The M I C seems to drive the bus, but it does need its oil.

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   4. jhallc December 18, 2025 at 12:48 pm

      I remember the days back in the 1980’s to 2010 when Hugo Chavez and Venezuela (Citgo) used to donate oil to Joe Kennedy’s fuel oil program “Citizens Energy” to help US poor. I’m thinking that stopped when pressure to sanction them was brought to bear.
      I also saw the post on Israel and Chevron’s gas deal to Egypt which made me wonder if the gas will be coming from the fields they just usurped off the coast of Gaza. What a wonderful world it is.

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   5. Chris N December 18, 2025 at 1:00 pm

      Not only that, but the US oil industry is sitting on unused US permits right now. That article was written back when WTI was about $70 a barrel, and now it’s down to ~$55-$60, and continuing to slowly trend downwards. Not only would they risk losing massive investments in rebuilding, but they would be waiting a long time after those investments were made to enter a profitable situation, if at all.

      I’m more inclined to believe any regime change or invasion is less about getting the oil out of the ground, than keeping it in the ground to stop non-US aligned producers from undercutting US-aligned ones.

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3. Wukchumni December 18, 2025 at 7:29 am

   Trump Administration announces plans to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research and close its famed Mesa Lab Balanced Weather
   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   My great grandfather saw the moon with his eyes, my grandfather saw the moon through a telescope, my father and I watched the moon landing together, my children watched the moon through a telescope, and my grandchildren only ever see the moon on their phone.

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   1. mrsyk December 18, 2025 at 11:03 am

      And have a look at who’s work it is, Vought says National Center for Atmospheric Research will be dismantled, Politico.

      Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought is Project 2025’s Whip.

      NWT devoted a chapter to him in his post this past Monday, Trump Loses in Indiana as the MAGA Civil War Rages On, NC.

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      1. Alex Cox December 18, 2025 at 9:49 pm

         The NCAR building was designed by IM Pei ( of WTC 1 & 2). It is a striking building with magnificent views.

         In the interest of bipartisanship, Gov Jared Polis will be happy to see it turned into a hotel.

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         1. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 10:21 pm

            That NCAR building looks like it was inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright-

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesa_Laboratory

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4. herman_sampson December 18, 2025 at 7:40 am

   Bond dismisses charges against plastic surgeon: what bullpippy! That doctor committed fraud – vaccines are beside the point. He signed up for a government program that he either knew he would not follow or should have resigned from when he resolved he would not follow. That is how trust is lost. Did he also commit insurance fraud with falsified vaccines? He committed theft by destroying vaccines- he could have returned them when he stopped providing them.
   I was a mere bench chemist but the overriding principle in my work was honest reporting – fraud disqualifies one’s status as a scientist.

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   1. IM Doc December 18, 2025 at 8:41 am

      This is absolutely correct. There are so many egregious abuses of trust on all sides, you just cannot keep up with it anymore.

      There were all kinds of reasons going on not to trust the case being made by the federal agencies during COVID. I talked about them all the time right on this site. Almost all of that skepticism has now been shown to be valid. They simply had thrown out generations of medical practice, ethics and science. And what they did in their actions affected so many lives in so many ways. The trust has been lost for a generation or two. This trust has been lost not only by the public but also a sizable chunk of the profession. I see it unfortunately every day.

      There are certainly ways to bring forth valid concerns without defrauding patients or anyone else. One of the big issues we must figure out going forward is how we are not going to allow those bringing up good faith concerns to be censored and silenced. I think this is of the utmost concern. Intense vigorous public debate is the only way. Unfortunately, I do not get the idea that many of the censors have learned that lesson. For one example, the vaccine mandate. Any and all of us on the ground knew the disaster that was – especially politically for the Dems. I have no doubt that single thing was a huge reason Trump won. I talked to way too many angered Dem patients and all kinds of family members who were equally upset. And it was all for naught – the vaccine was known to be non-sterilizing at the time the mandates began. The definition of hubris and stupid. But the issue is, listening to these same people in my profession today, I have no doubt they have failed to learn a single lesson. They would happily do it all over again today. A fellow practitioner like me can see why this surgeon thought he was doing the right thing; however, what he did was clearly not the way.

      Honesty, truth, and transparency on all sides…….the very essence of science. We have fallen so far away from that ideal it is incredible for me to fathom how far. To be clear, my profession has never fully lived up to that ideal. There have been huge egregious moral and ethical mistakes even in our lifetimes. But the unfortunate difference I see now that Pharma, Insurance and Hospital have taken over is that going forward, the problems are likely to get more egregious and the correcting medical ethics and history ever more ignored.

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5. Adam1 December 18, 2025 at 7:49 am

   “Category ‘6’ tropical cyclone hot spots are growing”

   When the article posted in Links a week or so ago about the reforecast failure of the AMOC in the North Atlantic, my first thought was that hurricanes in the Caribbean and Gulf would likely get stronger as less heat was moved north out of the region by the AMOC.

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   1. mrsyk December 18, 2025 at 9:24 am

      File under Climate Collapse, Live updates: US 12 closes due to high winds, fallen trees; hundreds of thousands without power in Washington, King5. Reports over 245,000 “accounts” have lost power, that has to be over a half million people.

      That’s Ukraine level scale and without any bombs.

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6. JohnA December 18, 2025 at 7:55 am

   Re ‘Clock is ticking’: Starmer tells Roman Abramovich to transfer money from Chelsea sale to Ukraine fund

   This is classic western media propaganda by omission and false reporting. Abramovich actually agreed that the proceeds of the enforced sale of his asset – Chelsea soccer club – would go to ‘victims of the war in Ukraine’. And by that he clarified that victims on both sides of the divide should receive support. Of course, the perfidious British demand that only Ukrainian victims are ‘worthy’ of support and financial aid. However, the way things are going, the 2.5 bn, were the British to win the case, is likely to be sent straight to Zelensky as part of the war effort to keep Ukraine afloat.
   As with the attempted Euroclear blackmail by the EU to seize Russian funds, it is unlikely to succeed, but if it were to, how safe and secure would anyone’s personal assets be in future? Social media support for Palestine or any attempts to present a more balanced picture of events in Ukraine, heaven forbid depicting Putin as anything or than a monstrous dictator determined to conquer the whole of Europe, could be grounds to freeze your bank accounts and seize the contents. Graham Phillips reporting from Donbass suffered that, and of course Jacques Baud has been sanctioned this week for not toeing the official western line.

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   1. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 8:08 am

      Details are a bit hazy on my part but there was a young, German female reporter that was showing what was happening on the other side of the hill in her video reports. The German government took umbrage at that and if she returns to Germany, there will be a prison cell waiting for her. They not only froze her bank accounts but I think her mother’s as well.

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      1. JohnA December 18, 2025 at 8:45 am

         Yes, that is correct. In the case of Graham Phillips, in freezing his bank account, his mortgage payments could not be made, and his house was repossessed. IIRC, his parents tried to intervene to help him avoid losing his house, but they were prevented from doing this. His ‘crime’ was to report on the ground in Donbass what was actually happening. Reporting that sharply contrasted with the BBC coverage, let alone the fiction provided by Luke Harding of the Guardian, who, when forensically interviewed by Aaron Mate about ridiculous inaccuracies in his book on Putin/Russia, put forward the defence “I am a storyteller”, before hanging up before the end of the interview.

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      2. vao December 18, 2025 at 11:07 am

         The person in question is Alina Lipp; she was sanctioned by the EU earlier this year. Her mother indeed got lots of problems with banking (allegedly because of money laundering after she sold possessions in Germany and transferred the money to Russia) and ended up leaving Germany to join her daughter in Russia.

         At the same time this occurred, another German, Thomas Röper, was placed under EU sanctions.

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         1. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 5:49 pm

            Alina Lipp. That was the name. Thanks for that. Seems that like Julian Assange, she was convicted of the crime of journalism. It seems too that the list of free-thinkers and dissidents having to go live in Russia is getting longer and longer. When I was young, free-thinkers and dissidents were fleeing Russia to go to the free west. How things have changed.

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            1. outofjoint December 18, 2025 at 7:36 pm

               The direction the free-thinkers migrate depends on who they are criticizing. Alina Lipp will be quite safe criticizing western Europe from Russia. Others are quite safe criticizing Russia in France or Germany.

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   2. bertl December 18, 2025 at 7:59 pm

      Then, perhaps, it is arguable that the agreement has been breached by the British and Abramovich should ask for the money to be returned to him simply because it is his,

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7. .Tom December 18, 2025 at 8:00 am

   Larry Summers’ contrition here again appears to be limited, only for the poor judgement of his relationship with Epstein,blah blah. I haven’t seen any contrition or taking responsibility for his atrocious behavior towards women, as he documented in his emails to Epstein. A sequences of them were read in a podcast I listened to. Summers is a creep and so far did not cop to that and apologize.

   Now two students are in trouble from Harvard for documenting his statement before he began a lecture. I’m guessing this is the video they are in trouble for https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hnfg2dkH5kA (30 seconds)

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   1. Cutrano December 18, 2025 at 2:48 pm

      That whole article is shuck and jive to avoid mentioning Mossad or Israel.

      Of course a used car dealer type can attract ex presidents and world leaders and just happens to end up owning blackmail videos of them…uh huh.

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8. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 8:03 am

   ‘Arya – آریا
   @AryJeay
   🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷| NEW: The WP quoting Israeli & US officials confirm that US-Iran talks were a ruse to strike Iran’

   I have no idea why but people that do this sort of crap have a need to boast of it to show that they were the smart ones and that they got one over on the other guy. Does not matter if it makes negotiating ten times more harder afterwards, they can’t resist the temptation. They are telling the Iranians not to trust them as they will lie their faces off. It’s like the Minsk 3 agreements with the Russians where the main signatories – Merkel, Poroshenko & Holland – have come out and said that the agreements were bogus and they did it to give the Ukrainian army time to build up so that it could fight the Russian army. Anybody think that the Russians will be interested in a Minsk 3 agreement?

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9. kriptid December 18, 2025 at 8:45 am

   Thoughts on Trump’s speech last night from the commentariat?

   I’ll start: if anyone needed convincing that Trump and the Republicans are in for a trouncing in the midterms, have them watch Trump’s diatribe.

   From what little I could stomach I gathered:

   1. Everything is Biden’s fault

   2. The economy is just fine, nothing to see here

   3. Illegal immigrants…. blah, blah, blah

   4. Something, something, men in women’s sports

   5. Did I mentioned everything is Biden’s fault?

   This, coupled with the insane Rob Reiner take, among the latest gaffes, should leave no doubt in anyone’s mind that Trump is cooked.

   I just fear what comes next.

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   1. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 9:00 am

      If Trump and the Republicans figure that they will lose the midterms less than 11 months from now, they may seek to double down and do all sorts of crazy stuff while they have the chance before then. And Trump is so unstable at the moment, who knows what he might decide to do.

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   2. Louis Fyne December 18, 2025 at 9:18 am

      No Normies were watching. Trump hater/lovers continue to love/hate.

      unless it’s 9/11 agai , the era of prime time presidential address is *dead*….regardless of party in DC

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      1. ChrisFromGA December 18, 2025 at 9:28 am

         I tried watching and could only take about 15 seconds of his lies. Flipped the channel to watch some mindless show on Prime.

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      2. Dr. John Carpenter December 18, 2025 at 9:52 am

         Plus the combination of the short news cycle, dropping attention spans and a media that doesn’t do it’s job insures any potential impact is blunted.

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   3. flora December 18, 2025 at 9:43 am

      My opinion is T was trying to get his mojo back with a campaign-like speech, surrounded by Patel and Pam Bondi and other who said what a great, great job T is doing.

      T’s poll numbers are underwater, his policies both foreign and domestic are alienated his base. The GOP will likely lose the midterms. (Not that I think the Dem side of the Uniparty will improve anything.)

      Watching his speech made me think of press conferences Nixon held when the Watergate scandal was heating up: a very defensive presentation given to put a good face on an increasingly untenable political situation for a president. / my 2 cents.

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   4. Carolinian December 18, 2025 at 10:14 am

      I only caught a minute or so where he seemed to be snarling at the camera–not exactly a fireside chat.

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      1. chuck roast December 18, 2025 at 3:40 pm

         He was simply forcefully reminding us that we now live in Nirvana…whether we like it or not.

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         1. Carolinian December 18, 2025 at 4:27 pm

            The beatings will continue until morale improves.

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   5. Paul W. December 18, 2025 at 10:34 am

      I’m not so sure about a blue wave at mid-terms. I see all the videos about Trump voters bankruptcy and job losses. I think that when the time comes to vote, they will vote Republican again. If the people that didn’t vote last time sit this out, I’m not so sure Democrats will win.

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   6. Leftcoastindie December 18, 2025 at 1:57 pm

      I.M. Doc made a comment the other day about Trumps mental condition calling it White Matter Disease. Although not dementia or Alzheimer’s disease it can affect their personality and their mental state.
      I think last nights speech would have been a good example of that condition assuming he is afflicted with that disease.

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   7. gf December 18, 2025 at 3:13 pm

      Still way too much time to even think about elections.

      A *hit ton will no doubt happen between now and September and that is the earliest one should look at polls.

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   8. anahuna December 18, 2025 at 4:23 pm

      The joke, I think, is that part of Trump’s insane “it’s all about me” Rob Reiner pronouncement is accurate. “You know, it was the Russia hoax. He was one of the people behind it. I think he hurt himself in career-wise. He became like a deranged person. Trump derangement syndrome.”

      According to Aaron Mate on Judge Nap, Reiner was indeed heavily involved in anti-Russian activities and the promotion of the Russiagate hoax.

      Choosing this line of attack right after a horrifying murder is one more indication that the president has lost whatever touch he had. IMdoc’s helpful information about white-matter disease comes to mind. And there seems to be no one to drag Trump away from his phone and off the public stage.

      Suzy Wiles comes to mind. I don’t know whether she is a well-behaved and circumspect psychopath or simply the typical model child of an alcoholic who is keeping the family together at any cost.

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10. ilpalazzo December 18, 2025 at 9:08 am

    Re Computer parts Crash

    It almost looks like they want to crash demand for Chinese open source models that can be run locally if one has enough RAM. Not enough RAM? – please log on to our online service.

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    1. raspberry jam December 18, 2025 at 10:06 am

       I wondered this as well, there has been a concentrated effort to crush the usage of the Chinese open source models in US/EU and the majority of the customers I work with – even the hold outs – have now started saying they’re unable to use the Chinese open source models. Bonus: the shitty US and French models require a lot more H200/B200 GPUs

       ETA: the customers I work with are enterprises, often in security-conscious industries requiring air gaps, so the commercial frontier models are not an option for them. Consumer usage of the Chinese open source models is pretty much universal because of GPU load of the western models, it’s probably more to do with profit margins than crushing peon usage but maybe they also think computer usage by peons should shift to a cloud-based model too instead of building/buying your own rig

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       1. ChrisFromGA December 18, 2025 at 11:54 am

          I have a large, security-conscious client who just announced to their staff that all public LLMs are now banned by order of the CISO.

          Only local LLMs running inside the network are permitted for staff. This might get interesting.

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          1. ilsm December 18, 2025 at 2:13 pm

             US Dept of War just directed all employees, soldiers, indentured contractors, etc to use any ChatGPT, Claude or whatever to make their surfing more useful.

             I wonder how much US war data is already in the cloudosphere, in data centers, etc. to where DeepSeek surfers can figure out what Hegseth has in mind to please Caligula.

             I doubt computer security matters bc US must not lose to aChinese SputnikAI.

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          2. raspberry jam December 18, 2025 at 5:13 pm

             If your client is permitted to use clouds then they can still access private endpoints for OpenAI and Anthropic provisioned within their VPC in those clouds. But if they are restricted to bare metal then they will need to run open source models and the GPU load of those for anything requiring agents is high. A lot of my customers are using GPT-OSS for non-agent stuff if they’re restricted to western models and Devstral2 for agents. I made a comment a week or so ago about the H200 export rules changing for China and opined it might be because NVIDIA was looking to dump them to get higher profits on B200s but China shouldn’t bother since they were doing so well with their restrictions on their smaller indigenous GPU

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       2. Steve H. December 18, 2025 at 1:08 pm

          > Consumer usage of the Chinese open source models is pretty much universal because of GPU load of the western models

          Thank you, raspberry jam, again you clarify.

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11. Louis Fyne December 18, 2025 at 9:15 am

    SSDs and RTX chips different beasts, that tweet is lazy with its analysis

    SSDs (the complete package, not the NAND chips) are under big price pressures and margins have become compressed.

    RTX 50xx are consumer gaming cards (not referring to data center chips)….expensive discretionary items that skews towards younger buyers

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12. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 9:16 am

    ‘Victor vicktop55 commentary
    @vick55top
    Venezuelan Navy escorting oil tankers through blockade zone — reports’

    Venezuela just called Trump’s bluff. Going after that tanker would mean going through that Venezuelan naval escort. And if it gets into a shooting match, then any US ship will be regarded as fair game. Once you go there, you never know how it will end. Sure the Venezuelan navy are amateurs compared to that US fleet, but even amateurs get lucky. And then there is the fact that there is a Russian tanker that is about to sail through these waters but this one is flying under a Russian flag. Things are getting complicated in these waters.

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    1. XXYY December 18, 2025 at 3:07 pm

       Remember, the US Navy was chased off in short order by the Houthis.

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    2. Glen December 18, 2025 at 3:43 pm

       As far as I can tell, America is already “at war” with Venezuela. It really reminds one of Iraq except this time our leaders didn’t bother with the UN, Congress, or the American people, it just started blowing $hit up, and killing people for what even they have acknowledged were BS reasons:

       Blockading Venezuela: The International Law Consequences
       https://www.justsecurity.org/127396/venezuela-military-blockade-international-law/

       Parsing Trump’s Venezuela Claims: The Oil Case Behind The Rhetoric
       https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2025/12/16/parsing-trumps-venezuela-claims-the-oil-case-behind-the-rhetoric/

       So last week it was narcoterrorism, this week it’s stolen oil. Next week maybe it’ll be they hate Santa Claus, who knows. All I can see is there is a significant and growing American military presence down there to threaten another country.

       Apparently another potential reason is to “counteract” China’s influence in the Americas. Well, if that’s the case why aren’t they going after their good buddy in Argentina?

       The Evolution of Chinese Engagement in Argentina under Javier Milei
       https://www.csis.org/analysis/evolution-chinese-engagement-argentina-under-javier-milei

       This doesn’t look like an example of how America is securing it’s sphere of influence. It looks like all America knows how to do foreign policy wise is [family blog] a country up unless we’re bailing out a Wall St hedge fund buddy. Bummer.

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13. pjay December 18, 2025 at 9:22 am

    – ‘800 days of genocide in Gaza’ – Andy Worthington

    Under the “ceasefire” we only have a Bondi Beach massacre in Gaza every two or three days instead of the four Bondis every day that occurred before it. No wonder our media sees no need to report on this any more; it would be antisemitic to do so given such progress!

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14. ChrisFromGA December 18, 2025 at 9:24 am

    That gutless weasel Mike Johnson is going to cut and run, adjourning the House without voting on a clean extension of the Obamacare subsidies. Without that, something like 20 million people will see their Obamacare premiums soar in two weeks. Johnson is an incredibly weak speaker. He lost several moderates who signed a democrats discharge petition, which will force a vote once the House returns to DC, but who knows when that will be. Maybe Valentine’s Day? This creep has a history of disappearing for months, as the House basically took the fall off. When they could have been working on a fix to Obamacare.

    There is a reasonable argument that the subsidies are just a band-aid, and the real problem is the skyrocketing Obamacare premiums. I was listening to CNBC this morning, and the Senator from Oklahoma stated that under Biden the number of enrolled in the program went from 10 million to 21 million. A larger pool of insurance participants should result in lower, not higher premiums, unless they are all very sick people making large claims. So something rotten is going on.

    COVID era largesse has to end, but this is not the way to do it.

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    1. Wukchumni December 18, 2025 at 9:31 am

       That gutless weasel Mike Johnson is going to cut and run, adjourning the House without voting on a clean extension of the Obamacare subsidies.

       Mike Johnson is a real clocksucker…

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       1. Henry Moon Pie December 19, 2025 at 2:17 am

          Now Wuk, you just miss your Kevin. ;)

          Reply ↓
    2. mrsyk December 18, 2025 at 9:31 am

       Thanks for another honest take on the Speaker’s character.
       If I were proxy for the have-nots I would argue that continuing Covid era largess would be great if were focused on the “bottom half” and not special interests. That, of course, is never going to happen.

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15. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 9:28 am

    ‘Vaughn Hillyard
    @VaughnHillyard
    WH has installed a series of plaques under Trump’s new “Presidential Walk of Fame.” ‘

    Some of these plaques are fair but you can see the ones that Trump wrote. They sound like a Truth Social post-

    https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/politics/2025/12/17/see-the-new-white-house-presidential-walk-of-fame-plaques/87817924007/

    But it is so petty.

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16. Colonel Smithers December 18, 2025 at 9:38 am

    Thank you, Yves.

    Further to the Moon Of Alabama link, this community may be interested to read that British forces are deployed in Baluchistan and Bolivia. Over lunch a fortnight ago, including with an army officer, a list was literally rattled off, but I just caught these two. As I listened in amazement, I was puzzled by what Britain’s interests were there, other than business interests and keeping in Uncle Sam’s good books.

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    1. AG December 18, 2025 at 12:35 pm

       Thanks for this “intel”, Colonel!
       reminds me of “Nostromo”…
       p.s. any imagination of the size?

       Reply ↓
       1. Colonel Smithers December 18, 2025 at 3:14 pm

          Thank you, AG.

          By the sounds of it, special forces in platoon size, about 30 – 40, and drawn from a variety of units. This officer is an engineer.

          Reply ↓
17. The Rev Kev December 18, 2025 at 9:54 am

    “Live. ‘I won’t give up,’ says Belgian PM as EU leaders debate reparations loan for Ukraine”

    That Belgium PM had his spine stiffened a day or so ago by this news story-

    ‘Fitch Ratings has placed Euroclear Bank, the Belgium-based depository holding frozen Russian assets, on notice for a possible downgrade, citing legal and liquidity risks linked to the EU’s attempt to use the funds to finance a “reparations loan” to Ukraine.

    The move on Tuesday to place Euroclear on “Rating Watch Negative” means there is a higher chance its AA credit rating could be cut soon. Fitch said it may downgrade the bank if the European Commission’s plan goes ahead without strong legal and liquidity safeguards.’

    https://www.rt.com/news/629554-fitch-euroclear-downgrade-warning/

    If I were that Belgium PM, I would station armed police in the Euroclear building in case Ursula got any funny ideas.

    Reply ↓
    1. ilsm December 18, 2025 at 2:04 pm

       Brussels is not Kansas (as in we are in Oz, n, not the down under one).

       VdL and advisors think they can find buyers (can ECB issue bonds/bills?) for notes backed by collateral the issuer does not own? Or buyers that accept that Russia will lose the war and pay reparations?

       I am pretty sure the green witch from Wicked won’t be under that house when it falls in Munchkinland.

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18. Steve H. December 18, 2025 at 10:07 am

    > The World At Eleven. Aurelien

    >> As for me, I’m no good at shouting

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19. pjay December 18, 2025 at 10:40 am

    – ‘How I Almost Became a Palantir Democrat’ – Un-Diplomatic

    This provides and excellent description of how many “Palantir Democrats” are created and go on to exhibit today’s version of the Banality of Evil. As I was reading the Thomas Neuburger piece (“… if the Right Wins Absolutely”) posted by Yves today, I kept thinking that there was something missing. What was missing, especially for Neuburger’s last three categories (Big Money, the War Machine, and the Tech Overlords) were these people – all the “Palantir Democrats” today who are crucial in supporting these factions of what Neuburger calls the “Hard Right.”

    I continue to be impressed with this blog Un-Diplomatic. Van Jackson, its creator and author, has an interesting biography, especially for someone so young:

    https://www.vanjackson.org/biography

    Normally I’d be suspicious of someone with this background. But he seems to have “escaped” from its clutches, and so far it has served him well in providing an insider account of the Establishment, especially its lib-Dem elements. Thanks.

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    1. alrhundi December 18, 2025 at 8:33 pm

       My only complaint is I thought the story would go on longer and it felt like a cliffhanger.

       Reply ↓
20. TimH December 18, 2025 at 11:40 am

    This is great news, since EU is trying hard to de-fang GDPR:

    https://noyb.eu/en/austrian-supreme-court-meta-must-give-users-full-access-their-data

    Kudos to Max Schrems and noyb.

    Reply ↓
21. Carolinian December 18, 2025 at 12:22 pm

    Judge Nap and Carlson worth a look.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sgUp-Q2kWg

    Carlson says that a person in Congress thought Trump would declare war against Venezuela last night. He didn’t but will he?

    Reply ↓
    1. gf December 18, 2025 at 3:27 pm

       Carlson really outed himself in that one.

       I never fell for hes shtick though.

       Total white conservative victim-hood disease.

       Reply ↓
22. AG December 18, 2025 at 12:50 pm

    re: Jacques Baud

    German NACHDENKSEITEN briefly summing up well the legal sit and all-over-assessment

    Now even Jacques Baud is being sanctioned – The EU continues to fight freedom of expression
    Dec. 16th
    https://archive.is/OCxoh

    p.s. So far sanctions mean “only” financial punishment. No criminal charges or prison as stated by Florian Rötzer by German “Overton Magazin” in this longer personal comment:

    EU sanctions Jacques Baud: “Spokesperson of Russian propaganda”
    Dec. 15th
    https://archive.is/412kQ

    And since I had been doing my rants – I had forgotten that Michael von der Schulenberg had already filed a complaint against the earlier sanctions list including Dogru, Lipp, Röper, via EU-Parliament which he belongs to as BSW.
    So there is some little action taken.

    Reply ↓
23. AG December 18, 2025 at 12:54 pm

    re: global fertility industry

    NYT
    They Answered an Ad for Surrogates, and Found Themselves in a Nightmare
    Eve was one of dozens of Thai women who traveled 4,000 miles — only to be trapped by the dark side of the global fertility industry.
    https://archive.is/9w5HB

    Reply ↓
24. AG December 18, 2025 at 1:25 pm

    re: on Hollywood by …Elizabeth Warren

    Matt Belloni on his Hollywood biz podcast

    Antitrust Debate With Senator Elizabeth Warren, and the Oscars Go to… YouTube
    25 min.
    https://podcasts.apple.com/is/podcast/a-warner-bros-antitrust-debate-with-senator/id1612131897?i=1000741753577

    Matt is joined by United States Senator Elizabeth Warren to discuss what should happen to Warner Bros., why it should not go to Netflix or Paramount Skydance, whether Democrats and Republicans could unite to block this sale, and how Hollywood should fight to survive in the era of big tech consolidation (02:08). Matt finishes the show reacting to the Oscars moving exclusively to YouTube in 2029

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25. DJG, Reality Czar December 18, 2025 at 2:10 pm

    Craftsmanship in the culture, by Matthew Crawford, at Archedelia.

    Yep. Matthew Crawford describes the issue, which isn’t confined to film. As a writer, I see the same middle-man-ization and middle-woman-ization of the literary world. Publishing is crawling with agents, all wanting to skim, while blabbing about their “passion” for literature. (And, oh, goonie fiction, if you happen to have a manuscript at hand.)

    Crawford: “I believe one source of it is what you might call alien ownership, in which an enterprise is controlled by parties who have no history with, and no special sympathy for, the product or service that the firm exists to provide — no emotional or intellectual investment in the craft of it.”

    The old saying is “stick to the knitting.” Frankly, skills don’t transfer — unless you’re in the marketing department, where the main skill is Excel spreadsheets. Management (Taylorism) exists to oppress workers. Gramsci was working on Taylorism and its ill effects when his health finally gave out.

    The reason there are no towering figures in U.S. culture (although I admire Amy Sherald, the painter, immensely) has nothing to do with smashing the patriarchy and pulping John Updike’s novels. It has everything to do with middle-man/woman-ization: The M.F.A. programs and their standardized products. The insistence on flimsy theories (queer / gender / “toxic masculinity”). The bureaucratic art world infantilizes the artist, who then spends an inordinate amount of time begging for grants.

    You won’t see anyone with the authority of William Faulkner or Edith Wharton or Sinclair Lewis or John Dos Passos. And you aren’t seeing much of the great mastery of poetic language and theatrical dialogue of people like Marianne Moore, Elizabeth Bishop, Arthur Miller, and Tennessee Williams. Let alone Walt Whitman and Emily Dickinson. Craft is so, errrr, patriarchal. Let’s “devise” a play, instead.

    The other great diagnosis is by Pankaj Mishra in recent Harper’s Magazine: “Speaking Reassurance to Power.”

    https://harpers.org/archive/2025/08/speaking-reassurance-to-power-pankaj-mishra-easy-chair/

    And you wonder why I still write scripts and stories in longhand on pads of paper…

    Reply ↓
    1. Jeremy Grimm December 18, 2025 at 9:12 pm

       I thought “Craftsmanship…” one of the best short essays I have read in a while. The instinct of workmanship is indeed what is lacking in the arts and the design and manufacture of goods, products, and services. However, discussing workmanship and craftsmanship with regard to the arts raises what I regard an interesting question. To me workmanship refers to the drive to perform whatever task you are doing with a kind of respect, a drive to make everything just right, just so. In art this same instinct keeps an artist working on a piece that to other eyes appears complete — finished. Craftsmanship is something different. To me craftsmanship refers to the ability to execute a task with great skill and beauty of execution, but I do not believe just craftsmanship and workmanship are sufficient to produce art. Art must be executed with workmanship, but I am not entirely sure whether it must be executed with craftsmanship. Art communicates a deep feeling and a sense of awe beyond the awe I have for works of great craftsmanship. And I believe there can be personal art that expresses something the artist feels driven to create, but it may be only the artist or some few other might receive its communication.

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26. Cutrano December 18, 2025 at 2:21 pm

    Power Brokers, behind your soaring utility bills

    Not just money, but lives and billions in property damages.

    Gavin Newsom appoints all the California Public Utilities Commissioners.
    He is in the pocket of PG&E, whose CEO, Patti Poppe, “earned” $52 million a year ago, through, as article explains, not maintaining power and gas lines, but rather new “investments” for AI, solar etc.

    Hundreds burned to death because of PG&E’s lack of maintenance in Paradise and other fires.

    Janisse Quiñones,in charge of power line distribution “left” PG&E, a.k.a. Fired.
    Immediately hired by Karen Bass, mayor of L.A. at Los Angeles Department of Power and Water. The Palisades fire was caused by empty reservoirs and sparking power lines in Altadena.

    “Quiñones said. “I will have to look into all the energy efficiency projects, understand how we’re performing and how we’re making those equitable for the communities that we’re serving.”

    https://www.dailynews.com/2024/05/14/la-city-council-set-to-confirm-pge-executive-as-new-ladwp-general-manager-with-750000-salary/

    Reply ↓
27. scott s. December 18, 2025 at 5:49 pm

    re: “Border Patrol, ICE and Christian Nationalism”

    Don’t know what Bovino thinks/believes, but can’t agree with the exegesis of Isaiah 6 presented in that post. Typical Christian perspective is to interpret / understand old Testament writings in view of the New Testament. As Apostle John writes in John 12:39 specifically referring to Isaiah 6 as a reference to Christ the King of the Universe and the need to witness to an unhearing people. That witness must continue even as “the cities are laid waste and without inhabitant”. Though as Isaiah writes a remnant of the Hebrews will understand and be re-grafted into the root as Paul explains in the letter to the Romans.

    John’s Revelations is another depiction of this process.

    Reply ↓
28. mrsyk December 18, 2025 at 6:59 pm

    Oh Canada. Following controversy, all names will be left off Canadian monument to ‘victims of communism’, the Art Newspaper. So, an abstract installation then.

    The lede,
    More than half the names originally planned to be inscribed on the Ottawa monument have been linked to Nazis

    Reply ↓
29. ambrit December 18, 2025 at 10:18 pm

    While looking at a far-right podcast a while ago, I suddenly realized that Trump’s “1776” USD bonus cheque to military members sounds suspiciously like a Roman Emperor ‘granting’ “bonuses” to the Praetorian Guard during times of crisis. Is the Emperor Donald trying to buy protection?
    I’m increasingly getting the feeling that the “Next Turning” will be more chaotic and sanguinary than we expect.
    Stay safe.

    Reply ↓
30. AG December 18, 2025 at 11:17 pm

    When I told a friend that much of current geopolitical shakeup is due to the US trying to get back industrial base etc. (China) I was asked why the US elites did allow the rise of China happen in the first place. Didn´t they see this come? This was a very good question which I couldn´t answer.

    Reply ↓
    1. LY December 19, 2025 at 6:00 am

       For profit and to put labor in its place. The profit was from new markets (a billion people!) and cheap labor. That’s from first hand experience with expats working in China in the 90’s and with the offshoring that continues today.

       Ideologically, it’s something like the hope was financialization would spur political change, and McDonalds, Starbucks, Hollywood, etc. would spur social/cultural change. I’d point to Thomas Friedman and Francis Fukuyama.

       Reply ↓