For the record, I actually do NOT like it when markets fall apart, even when I anticipate it and am correctly positioned for it (2007 and 2008). It’s very upsetting to watch.
Every savvy investor I know has been expecting a mild to meaningful correction. So independent of its seriousness, the Dubai World frisson could take a bit of the air out of a market that was starting to look pretty bubbly.
Futures are now saying that the US will open nearly 3% down and even everyone’s new favorite store of value, gold, has taken a 2.5% hit. Treasuries have rallied. So many assumed that dollar is a one-way trade, to the degree that even a modest reversal could lead to a short-covering rally. This may not be the reversal of the dollar carry trade that Roubini has predicted, but if when we get real news out of Dubai (probably not till next week) it gives little relief, we might get a mini preview of the Big One. The timing of this is either world class inept or says something not pretty is indeed up. Why did they announce prior to a four-day religious holiday AND a major US holiday? Why would they think a move like this prior to a news black hole would be a plus?
I seem to have some very weird personal karma at work. I got my book deal March 1. The big rally kicks in almost immediately thereafter. While we had a lot of interesting (and frankly depressing) political shenanigans, and I felt bad about not being as on top of the markets and news as I normally am, it wasn’t as if there were world shaking market events to chronicle.
My page proofs have to go in on Saturday. After that, my only additional contact with the manuscript prior to publication is that I get two days to look at them right before Christmas to make sure the changes I indicated went in. So basically I am about to be free of the book.
And the markets obligingly stayed bullish virtually the entire time I was working on it. Go figure.