2:00PM Water Cooler 9/16/2024

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Patient readers, the post on the latest Trump assassination attempt took much much longer than I expected, and so I had to cut my prep and writing time for Water Cooler. I’ll make it up to you tomorrow, I swear! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

I say stick with the catbirds!

Gray Catbird, Shadehill State Rec Area – Merrimans Grove, Perkins, South Dakota, United States.

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In Case You Might Miss…

1. Kamala’s latest promotion: ice cream. Needs a better name, though.
2. Stein on the ballot in Georgia.
3. Boeing takes cash flow measures, butchers messaging.
4. Naming waypoints in the air!

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempt

“Sen. Josh Hawley: Whistleblower Says Lead Secret Service Agent On Day Trump Was Shot Was Promoted After Failing Key Exam” [RealClearPolitics]. Hawley: “The pattern that is emerging here from whistleblowers who come forward to me now over and over again is that the Trump rally was undermanned, it was understaffed, they did not have people who had experience on it. And now this advance agent I’m told may have failed one or more for training exams and was known not to be a top-quality agent. This is absurd.” And: “One other thing — I’m told by people who are close to and have knowledge of the Secret Service’s own internal investigation that the Department of Homeland Security is leaning on the Secret Service not to comply with document requests to Congress. This is really getting to be outrageous. The American people need the truth here.” • Makes you wonder how they’ll stonewall the second assassination attempt!

2024

Less than sixty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

A few polls post-debate, but as of this reading little change. To be fair, it might take some time for sentiment to settle; and the winning margins may at this point be so minute as to be undetectable. Still, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the debate — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

“One in four US Black men under 50 support Trump for president, NAACP poll finds” [Reuters]. “Over one quarter of younger Black men say they would support Republican candidate Donald Trump in this year’s U.S. presidential election, an NAACP poll showed on Friday. Black voters have long been the most loyal Democratic constituency, but during Democratic President Joe Biden’s term, some younger Black voters and Black men of all ages lost faith in the Democratic Party. Black voters played a large role in sending Biden to the White House in 2020, and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harrishopes to secure their support to win the Nov. 5 presidential election. Most Black voters, 63%, plan to support Harris, compared with 13% for Trump, according to the new NAACP survey, which interviewed 1,000 registered Black voters across the U.S. from Aug. 6 to Aug. 12. But 26% of Black men under 50 years old said they supported Trump, versus 49% who backed Harris. For Black men above 50, 77% said they supported Harris. Sixty-seven percent of Black women said they supported Harris, while 8% said they supported Trump. Top issues for Black voters were the economy, crime, and public safety, the survey found, with the cost of food and groceries, housing, and utilities being the biggest economic stressors. Eighty-two percent of Black men under 50 listed economic issues among the most important issues facing the country today, compared with 75% of Black women of all ages. Voter messaging that emphasizes rights ‘being under attack’ has the most significant chance to motivate undecided voters and younger Black men, the survey found.” • “We’re not going back” might do that.

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Kamala (D): The pints aren’t the only thing that’s churning:

I’m not sure that “Kamala’s Cocunut Jubilee” makes it for me. Nor the recipe. Can readers suggest alternatives? (Adding: The Swing States are in good hands. But I’m not sure MoveOn’s promotion is going to bring out anybody who isn’t already going to the polls (maybe because they admire Pelosi for having a whole ice cream freezer).

Kamala (D): “Harris needs incredible turnout among Black voters. But there are warning signs” [Politico]. “The hard work, which Harris also called joyous, starts with the vice president’s ability to make an effective policy pitch to Black voters — particularly those outside urban areas — and mobilize them to get to the polls in November. Driving up Black voter turnout is crucial to her chances of winning in swing states across the county…. Though there is continuity in platform and campaign staff between President Joe Biden’s and now-Harris’ campaign, instead of a doom-and-gloom warning over lofty democratic ideals, Harris has emphasized a more practical message of freedom focused on economic opportunity and reproductive rights.” • That phrase Harris keeps using — “Hard work is good work” — drives me nuts. Plenty of hard work is bad work. Working in a meat packing plant. Working in a Covid-filled nursing home. “Meeting the public.” Proving once again that Harris and Democrats generally have a tin ear for working class concerns. And don’t give me this “economic opportunity” horse patootie. I can’t pay my bills with “opportunity.”

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Trump (R): “Trump’s swing-state plan targets ‘sometimes’ voters” [Axios]. “The Trump campaign’s internal materials prioritize getting to “hard-to-reach, low-propensity voters” — those who’ve shown interest in Trump by attending a rally, for example, but aren’t necessarily likely to show up at the polls. The campaign’s volunteers have been given a list of 25 “unreachable” and “sometimes” voters, with a goal of visiting at least 10 in person. As they contact and engage more unlikely voters, volunteers earn rewards. Those include T-shirts and MAGA caps and “expedited” entry into Trump rallies, and a top prize for the most active volunteers: an invitation to a party at Mar-a-Lago or Trump’s inauguration, along with being dubbed a ‘Trump Force Precinct Caption.'” “Caption”? Did an AI write this? More: “The volunteers are explicitly told to encourage those they contact to vote before Election Day, either by signing them up to vote by mail or securing their commitment to vote early in person.” • Trump is known for stretching the campaign dollar.

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Stein (G): A handout:

FEEL FREE TO SHARE –

I created this to counter establishment propaganda about Jill Stein and the Green Party: pic.twitter.com/EQqTDloaub

— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) September 3, 2024

Stein (G):

BREAKING: We won in Georgia! The anti-Democratic Party has lost multiple lawsuits trying to kick the Green Party off the ballot in Georgia.

Spread the word and help us celebrate by pitching in for ads to get out our message and get out the vote: https://t.co/P5prJQbth6 pic.twitter.com/R11pdSRXKW

— Team Stein/Ware 2024 (@TeamJillStein) September 14, 2024

Stein (G):

Wow: @Lis_Smith, the operative chosen by the @DNC to lead the Democratic Party's coordinated attack on our campaign, is the same person Andrew Cuomo paid to smear the women he sexually harassed. https://t.co/0V12tg9vCU

— Dr. Jill Stein🌻 (@DrJillStein) September 14, 2024

Also Mayo Pete’s campaign manager. IIRC, Smith was better than most at talking to the press (and most are very good).

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PA: “Pennsylvania is the swing state that matters in November” [Unherd]. This is very good, worth reading in full. The conclusion:

“Though Pennsylvania ranks fifth among states with the most colleges, it’s still a bastion of working-class voters without higher-education degrees. It is this bloc — black voters in Harrisburg, the capital city; Latinos in Reading, the fourth-largest city; formerly Democratic white Catholics in northeastern Pennsylvania; a cross-section of Trump supporters in Philadelphia’s Northeast — that has turned against the Democratic Party. This election will test whether these groups can overcome Democratic-trending suburban growth in formerly GOP communities. This week, on the question of predicting Pennsylvania’s electoral outcome, journalist Mark Halperin responded: ‘The answer is ‘don’t know.’ It is this ambiguity, driven by those demographic ‘middles,’ that make Pennsylvania so pivotal in November.” • Perhaps some Pennsylvania readers would care to comment?

PA: “How Does the Harris-Walz Campaign Solve a Problem Like Pennsylvania?” [The Daily Beast]. “‘Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between,’ James Carville, Bill Clinton’s campaign guru, wisecracked in 1991. Had Gov. Shapiro been on the ticket, navigating that terrain would be much easier.” • Not after Thomas Crooks, I’m betting.

PA: “Pennsylvania Court Throws Out Ruling Requiring Misdated Ballots to Count” [New York Times]. “Friday’s ruling means that state election officials will not be counting misdated or undated ballots in the general election unless the courts decide to intervene again between now and Nov. 5. The plaintiffs could file a new lawsuit that tries to address the jurisdiction issue, but whether they will do so is unclear.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Welcome to the Third World:

Hello FBI you may also want to look into why this fire chief was driving a lambo around Chelsea last week https://t.co/9FZ4XDhHb0 pic.twitter.com/EWBbR5dZq7

— Huge Ma (@turbovax) September 16, 2024

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Transmission: H5N1

“H5 Influenza Vaccines—Moving Forward Against Pandemic Threats” [JAMA]. “The current extent of mammalian infection appears unprecedented, and a 2024 study suggested the virus may have acquired enhanced ability to bind mammalian airway receptors.2 The widespread presence of H5N1 among animals in proximity to humans, despite biocontainment efforts, increases risks for reassortment between human and animal viruses and selection of mutations that could enhance human transmission and threaten a pandemic.” • Yep. Better plan a multi-layered defense. Oh wait, it’s going to be vax-only again, isn’t it?

Vaccines: Covid

The Jetsons have nothing on this:

📞 Another cheat code for getting a live person through the CVS phone menu:

Press 2 for provider.

The pharmacy answers normally and don't necessarily realize you selected the provider option.

If CVS doesn't like it, they can add Novavax stock to their site. https://t.co/fw7WmnVuqX

— Friesein (@Friesein) September 13, 2024

Helpful if you’re trying to get Novavax from CVS.

More tips on pharmacies:

Here are some helpful Medicare billing tips if you have trouble getting pharmacies to bill Medicare for Novavax:

"Former tech here. Many customer facing employees are undertrained in billing.

If you've already explained that they need to bill part B (not D) and given them your… https://t.co/gwq0YU8mft

— Friesein (@Friesein) September 12, 2024

Elite Maleficence

“Why Didn’t Facing a Common Enemy Bring Us Together?” [Francis Collins, The Atlantic]. • Not a word on airborne transmission. Stunning. An enormous dereliction of duty. (It’s also Collins’s NIH that blew through a billion bucks on Long Covid with nothing to show for it but a framework for further study.

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: First time in a long time I’ve seen national trends downward for both positivity and hospitalization. Even if wastewater still looks pretty ugly, that’s very good news. I assume that what’s going on is the end of the Summer Vacation cycle of infection, and there will be a short lull until the beginning of the Back to School cycle. If not, that will be a very good sign.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 9	Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):
Variants [3] CDC August 31	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 7
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data September 13:	National [6] CDC August 24:
Positivity
★ National[7] Walgreens September 16:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC August 26:	Variants[10] CDC August 26:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 7:	Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 9:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 11.5 in September 2024, the highest since April 2022, compared to -4.7 in August and forecasts of -3.9. The reading showed business activity in New York state grew for the first time in nearly a year.”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing strike: bosses bruised, blindsided and on brink of crisis” [Reuters]. “Two days after Boeing announced its offer, as union member frustration seeped into the media, commercial planes chief Stephanie Pope wrote an open letter to workers, saying the company had held nothing back and this was the best deal they would get. CEO Kelly Ortberg followed up with an open letter the next day, telling workers that voting against the deal would send them down a path ‘where no one wins’. Rather than rallying the troops, the letters backfired, according to four workers who said many union members saw them as ultimatums. ‘I thought they were unprofessional and threatening,’ said Josh King, a quality control inspector at a Boeing Seattle factory. Boeing finance chief Brian West acknowledged the disconnect with staff. ‘We had an unprecedented temporary agreement that was unanimously endorsed by union leadership. And over the last few days, it became very clear, loud and clear, with our union members that that offer didn’t meet the mark,’ he told a Morgan Stanley conference at the beachside Ritz-Carlton in Dana Point, California on Friday.” • The workers were voting against the union leadership just as much as they were Boeing management. Unsurprisingly.

“Boeing freezes hiring in sweeping cost cuts as it grapples with factory worker strike” [CNBC]. “The manufacturer will make ‘significant reductions’ to supplier spending and stop most purchase orders for its 737 Max, 767 and 777 jetliners, CFO Brian West said in a note to staff. It was the first clear sign of how the strike will affect the hundreds of suppliers that rely on Boeing work. ‘We are working in good faith to reach a new contract agreement that reflects their feedback and enables operations to resume,’ West said in his note. “However, our business is in a difficult period. This strike jeopardizes our recovery in a significant way and we must take necessary actions to preserve cash and safeguard our shared future.’ He added that Boeing is not making cuts to funding for safety, quality and direct customer support work.” • Why West? Why not Ortberg? Anyhow, West’s message:

NEWS: Boeing CFO Brian West issues a companywide memo detailing the steps it is taking conserve cash during the IAM strike. Its austerity measures will reverberate across the aerospace industry and broader U.S. and global economy. pic.twitter.com/bxLMSfKXY7

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) September 16, 2024

Manufacturing: “Boeing Strikers Have Leverage to Extract Meaningful Change” [Bloomberg]. “The union now has the upper hand because Boeing desperately needs to ramp up production of planes to help heal its supply chain and stem its losses. The company offered a general wage increase of 25% over four years and a $3,000 bonus for approving a new contract. Workers wanted a 40% raise and annual performance bonuses. How does Boeing pay up without breaking its finances? Here’s a quirky suggestion for both sides of the bargaining table: tie an extra bonus to any future share repurchases.” • See the post for the logic, which seems too clever by half. Why not just give the workers what they want and deserve?

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 49 Neutral (previous close: 43 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 39 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 13 at 1:58:23 PM ET.

Gallery

Yikes:

The Roses of Heliogabalus, Lawrence Alma-Tadema, 1888 – detail pic.twitter.com/TzgyOYXhhd

— Art or Other Things (@ArtorOtherThing) September 13, 2024

Zeitgeist Watch

My childhood was a lot like this, except no oiuja boards:

pic.twitter.com/OLOIkrIfwI

— Retro Toys and Cartoons (@toys_retro) September 12, 2024

Apparently, this is no longer true.

News of the Wired

“Greetings, Stranger” [Use Nothing]. “Nothing—a timer that tracks your intentional choice to do… nothing. No goals to chase, no notifications clamoring for your attention, no pressure to fill the silence with productivity. It simply exists, quietly counting each second you allow to pass. This is a space where inactivity is the point—a digital oasis amidst the chaos of endless tasks and to-dos.”

If you stan for toponymics, this is for you:

To streamline traffic, large airports have Standard Terminal ARrivals (STARs).

Points on the route are named. They must be 5 characters & unique – can’t match any other nav point out there

They often have themes; it helps you know how to pronounce the points on the radio when… pic.twitter.com/olwoDLCeEg

— KC-10 Driver ✈️ 👨‍✈️ B-737 Wrangler (@MCCCANM) September 16, 2024

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From TH:

TH writes: ” Aeonium haworthii, also known as Haworth’s aeonium or pinwheel— I don’t blame you if you wish that bee were in focus— I liked the background and colors of this one. Disappointing harvest? He appears to be going away empty handed.” I’m a big fan of blur, as a technique. What do readers think?