Links 10/19/2025


NASA Scientist Proposes Theory of Alien Civilizations Throughout Milky Way Futurism

Markov Chains: The Strange Math That Predicts (Almost) Anything 3 Quarks Daily

How the Brain Moves From Waking Life to Sleep (and Back Again) Quanta Magazine

Rise in youth mortality fuelled by mental illness, drugs, violence and other preventable causes The Conversation

COVID-19/Pandemics

Pozniak: Are we really ready for next pandemic? Boston Herald

Pandemic fears grow amid alarming rise of variant in China Daily Mail

Climate/Environment

Sea Levels Rising Faster than at Any Time in 4,000 Years, Study Warns SciTech Daily

World’s landscapes may soon be ‘devoid of wild animals’, says nature photographer The Guardian

South of the Border

Is the US about to attack Venezuela? Vox

Mexican and U.S. Officials Don’t Think Trump Admin Will Conduct a Military Intervention in Mexico: Report The Latin Times

Treasury’s $20 Billion Swap with Argentina and the Complementary ESF Credit Facility VeriDelis substack

China?


China Seizes The Master’s Weapon As It Makes Itself The New Hegemon Ian Welsh blog

Nexperia China unit asserts its independence as tensions with the Netherlands run high Reuters

China Wins Its Largest Ever Fighter Export Deal: Pushing U.S., Russian and Korean Competition Out of Indonesia Military Watch magazine

The First 48 Hours of a War With China ‘Could Be Ugly’ National Security Journal

India

India cutting Russian oil imports by 50%? After Donald Trump, White House makes big claim; refiners await clarity The Times of India

“India Working On 2 nm Chip”: Ashwini Vaishnaw Shows ‘Wafer’ At NDTV Summit NDTV World

Africa

American Private Military Companies Are Poised to Become Major Players in Africa’s Security Landscape SOFREP

Gen Z protesters toppled Madagascar’s president. Should other African leaders worry? CNN

European Disunion

Europe and the US Are Drifting Apart and It Isn’t Just Because of Trump Jacobin

Is mandatory military service returning in Europe? Turkiye Today

Twenty countries pressure EU for more deportations to Afghanistan DPA International

Old Blighty

The new favourite bolthole for Britain’s wealth creators: They are being driven out by Labour’s ‘attack on hard work’… and finding happier and ‘more sophisticated’ alternative Daily Mail

Brexit impact on UK economy will be negative for foreseeable future, Bailey warns The Independent

Israel v. Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iran


Rebuilding Gaza will take ‘decades,’ cost $70B, experts say ABC News

Egypt expected to lead global stabilisation force in Gaza, say diplomats The Guardian

Israeli forces stage new incursion near Syria’s Quneitra Shafaq News

UN rapporteur says deadly Israel strikes on vehicles in Lebanon could be war crimes The New Arab

New Not-So-Cold War

Hungary for a Change (No Kings Update) Oliver Boyd Barrett substack

The Wizard of the Kremlin News Forensics substack

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant repairs begin in Ukraine as ceasefire zones set Al Jazeera

Ukraine’s Zelensky leaves D.C. without Tomahawk missiles he sought UPI

Big Brother Is Watching You Watch

Google’s Ambitious Privacy Sandbox Project Signals Its End Gizmodo

Quantum threat looming large to privacy Bizz Buzz

Imperial Collapse Watch

Ohio community frustrated over homeless encampment in cemetery News 5 Cleveland

Maryland Lawmaker Seeks Tougher Sentences for Fentanyl Dealers Amidst Climbing Overdose Deaths in Baltimore and Rural Counties Hoodline

Trump 2.0

Prosecutor Who Rejected Trump’s Pressure to Charge James Is Fired NY Times

When could the shutdown end? Five key dates to watch The Hill

US to repatriate survivors of strike on ‘drug-carrying submarine’, Trump says BBC

Protesters gather nationwide for ‘No Kings’ rallies opposing Trump administration Andolu Agency

Musk Matters

Key facts: Analyst questions Tesla’s valuation; ISS advises against Musk’s pay TradingView

Elon Musk is looking for 100,000 people to send to Mars zamin

SpaceX has big, destructive plans for its big rocket in Florida The Bradenton Times

Democrat Death Watch

Newt Gingrich sees nationwide shift to GOP as voters flee ‘crazy’ Democratic Party Fox News

Democrats Have Let Republicans Become the ‘Peace’ Party Common Dreams

Immigration

Trump’s immigration crackdown weighs heavy on the US labor market AP

Internal documents suggest Salesforce offered AI services to expand Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown Times of India

Judge orders federal immigration agents to use body cameras in Chicago The Spokesman-Review

Our No Longer Free Press

Former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Johnson Decries Trump Administration Curbs on Pentagon Press Insider NJ

Pentagon Press Exodus Erupts Over New Access Rules Grand Pinnacle Tribune

Mr. Market Is Moody

Fragility of the dollar system: balance sheets to blockchains Kraken blog

Smart Investor: AI Boom or Bubble, Stocks on a Tightrope, and Why the Market Could Get More Concentrated Morningstar

AI

Game over. AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there. Marcus on AI substack

How sexy should AI be? OpenAI is one of many companies hoping to cash in Euronews

Inside San Francisco’s new AI school: is this the future of US education? The Guardian

People are using AI to talk to God BBC

People Who Lost Their Jobs To AI Are Opening Up About Their Experiences, And It’s Genuinely Scary BuzzFeed

The Bezzle

South Koreans freed from Cambodian scam centres return home under arrest Al Jazeera

Myanmar scam cities booming despite crackdown – using Elon Musk’s Starlink AFP

Guillotine Watch

Antidote du jour (via)

Lioness and cub

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here

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98 comments

  1. Wukchumni

    Elon Musk is looking for 100,000 people to send to Mars zamin
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Take me home Elon!

    Let me back up a little, how was I to know that Mars Air would go bankrupt when I was on vacay on this nice little orb you’ve got, effectively stranding me here since.

    Needless to say i’ve been living off of mileage points for some time now and have gotten used to earthling ways, and to be honest the food is such much better here than on the red planet.

    Reply
    1. Ksum Nole

      He is also looking for 100,000 people that want to buy Cybertruck. I wonder which miestone will be reached first. :)

      Reply
    2. Michaelmas

      Elon’s Martian Death March.

      [1]
      The cosmic radiation exposure involved in a round-trip to Mars aboard one of Musk’s crappy chemical rockets — he doesn’t have a launcher that can directly reach GEO yet — would expose astronauts to ~660 mSv of radiation, nearly 20 times the annual limit for nuclear workers.

      [2] Mars doesn’t have a magnetosphere and is too small to have enough gravity to ever retain an atmosphere so can’t be terraformed — pace Kim Stanley Robinson — so any survivors of the trip would then be exposed on the Martian surface to radiation levels almost as bad at about ~0.67 mSv/day, or over 20 times Earth’s background level. So there’s a chicken-and-egg problem there

      [3] What about the shielding challenges? Effective protection would require underground habitats or regolith-based shielding, which besides not yet being proven at scale, means that construction workers — many of them riddled with tumors by that point — would have to be on the Martian surface for however long that construction takes (as the Mars Rovers may be the full scope of what we can do in the way of long-distance robotics currently). Kind of a Catch-22 there.

      ~ ~

      Musk can no more deliver a thousand living humans to Mars than P.T. Barnum. The terrifying thing is that he may not even know this — he dropped out of Stanford’s physics masters program and most of the people who’ve encountered him and I’ve asked think it was because he wasn’t bright enough to hack it

      Reply
      1. Trees&Trunks

        If they miss the sun, there are plenty of other places they can hit… the universe is huuuuuugeeee. No reverse-gear allowed on that rocket though…

        What would aliens think about us sending a bunch of crap into their space? Offended? Happy to recieve specimen for their trials? Advanced recycling systems? How would they reuse this waste? Not returning to us, I hope.

        So many questions.

        Reply
      2. Pat

        I would pledge what little disposable income I have towards ridding our planet of the top 100,000 wealthiest people in the world. I don’t think I am alone. Sure getting rid of the other almost 411,000 would be wonderful, but the billionaires and near billionaires would be a good start.

        If there were a second I might go with 100,000 current and past Presidents, Premieres, MPs, and legislative heads, but it would be a tough call not to go one more rung down the wealth ladder.

        But whoever ends up on Musk’s Mars expedition it does need to include Musk, Thiel, Ellison, Bezos etc no matter what.

        Reply
        1. Wukchumni

          We did Venus as part of a universe package tour in the 70’s, with humidity it feels like 800 degrees~thank goodness for skin rebreathers.

          Reply
  2. The Rev Kev

    “American Private Military Companies Are Poised to Become Major Players in Africa’s Security Landscape”

    Because if there is one thing that the continent of Africa is in desperate need of is mercs. There were whole companies of them running around Africa in the 50s and 60s which really made the people there happy. The difference is that back then was that these were small groups recruited by people like “Mad Mike” Hoare under contract by local governments. These days you have major multinational corporations that have cornered the market of mercs and are only one step away from major governments-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Mike_Hoare#Congo_Crisis_(1961%E2%80%9365)

    Reply
  3. Ignacio

    Pandemic fears grow amid alarming rise of variant in China Daily Mail

    Surprisingly good reporting in the Daily Mail, and sounds alarming. I haven’t yet completely read the scientific paper but this, just before winter, is something to watch closely. I am missing a comparative analysis of this strain to well known human infecting variants in the very same paper and the serologic analysis is incomplete, IMO, and would have required simultaneous analyses with human Influenza antisera even if they claim there is no cross reactivity citing references that supposedly say so. The fact that the virus spreads airborne amongst ferrets is something to note. Yet again, comparative transmission analyses with other flu strains are missing there. The human sample consisted in >600 samples obtained between 2020-2024 with positivity rates not dissected by year of sample but origin (rural/urban) and that makes me suspicious. A few grains of salt on this paper after a very fast read.

    Reply
    1. Expat2uruguay

      I found the article strange because it never mentioned what the symptoms were. Nor did it talk about how this pandemic could be deadly or dangerous.

      Also, whatever happened to bird flu? I just noticed that it has disappeared from the headlines completely, after being the most terrible thing going on. Where can I get an update?

      Reply
      1. GramSci

        It’s here in Outer Pentagonia. Until mid-September I would refill my feeder 2 or 3 times per week. Today I refilled it for the first time since Oct. 3.

        It’s not just my feeder or seed-eaters. the robins and wrens and bluebirds have also disappeared. The birds are all gone from the surronding woods. Apart from one sickly finch, my only customers seem to be juncos heading south.

        Reply
      2. Ignacio

        There was an article linked (Substack) here about 1-2 days ago saying (not verbatim) something like “avian flu is one mutation away from a new pandemic”. This was a good one but the mutations being discussed there were found not in China but somewhere else in SE Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam… I don’t remember). The recommendation was that vaccination against H1N1 could be the best approach from a personal point of view.

        Reply
  4. DJG, Reality Czar

    NASA Scientist Offers Another Flimsy Opinion on Alien CIvilizations…

    This non-theory is indeed a weak Pan Galactic Gargle Blaster.

    First, the Fermi Paradox, which Wikipedia, of all places, reports amusingly and anecdotally. On the way to lunch, our hero Enrico: Fermi blurted a question variously recalled as: “Where is everybody?” (Teller), “Don’t you ever wonder where everybody is?” (York), or “But where is everybody?” (Konopinski).[19] According to Teller, “The result of his question was general laughter because of the strange fact that, in spite of Fermi’s question coming out of the blue, everybody around the table seemed to understand at once that he was talking about extraterrestrial life.”[20]

    Yep. And Fermi was right.

    The reason is fairly simple. The famous Drake Equation. Plug in one low value (and there is a variable for technological development) among the variables, and the number of space-traveling civilizations in our Orion Arm of the Milky Way Galaxy drops to, ooooh, a dozen.

    Habitable worlds are too far apart.

    And by now, the Lucy Show in reruns has reached everyone else by radio waves, so they know not to show up on Earth.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      Of course there is the time factor. Not everybody is developing at the some time and at the same rate. So as an example, suppose that we develop warp drive and can visit stars several hundred light years away. So we may find that one on planet they they are still going through their age of dinosaurs and there is no sapient life. On another, it may be that we missed them in that they developed a major civilization, reached into space but then eventually died out only leaving only stuff for our archaeologists to sort through. We might be able to get enough of their equipment working to see them moving and to here their voices but there would always be the incredibly sad realization – ‘Oh we just missed you’.

      Reply
    2. HH

      There is a very simple answer. A sufficiently advanced civilization collapses into virtual space. Freed from biological evolution, it no longer needs to deal with mass and distance, and travel becomes moot.

      However, even if we assume life forms similar to our type, the current estimate of over 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 habitable planets in the observable universe renders the idea of space exploration ridiculous.

      Reply
      1. Judith

        The assumption of similar life forms is a curious one. And whatever the form, maybe “they” just don’t care.

        Reply
      2. Ken Murphy

        Some societies may collapse into virtual navel gazing, but humanity is a strange beast, and there will likely always be the marginalized, the dissatisfied, the independent thinkers, and the weirdos who are ready and willing to travel to one of those 10 sextillion habitable planets to try something different and see new things. The only moot for me is that 10 sextillion habitable planets sounds like opportunity and what are we waiting for?
        And yes, I do get the scale of cosmic distances, which makes the project of exploring the Milky Way an exercise on the order of hundreds of thousands if not a few million years. But unlike some, I see no particular reason for humanity to go extinct. Which is the -only- endgame of staying on this particular object in the universe.

        Reply
        1. ISL

          Yes! Why would navel-gazing provide an evolutionary advantage? A recipe for a predator to have a field day, and the species to have gone extinct before it became technological.

          Reply
    3. Lee

      “Habitable worlds are too far apart.”

      From More Everything Forever by Adam Becker. Much thanks to NC commentariat for recommending this book.

      No human has traveled faster than Apollo 10’s Earth reentry speed of 24,816 mph.

      The fastest speed of any man made object is the Parker solar probe, 430,000 mph or 0.64 percent of the speed of light. These speeds are made possible not so much by propulsion as by the enormous gravitational force of the sun.

      “After millennia of technological advances, humanity’s best method for making things go really fast is to drop them.”

      Reply
  5. Wukchumni

    re: Guillotine Watch

    Funny how that $60k bottle of water kinda looks after the fact of a very quick hack, Marie.

    My bubbly water is sourced from Mexico, and a liter of Topo Chico is $2.50

    Reply
      1. Wukchumni

        Soda Springs is about a mile or so walk from the trailhead parking lot in Mineral King Valley, it’s a little off trail and right next to Farewell Creek, and easily identifiable as the area around it is orange-ish brown from high iron content.

        You bring a cup to draw from the source, which is about a foot deep, and add it to the lemonade powder in your Nalgene and give it a shake-presto sparkling lemon soda on the house.

        Reply
    1. Lefty Godot

      One hundred bottles of Acqua di Cristallo Tributo a Modigliani on the wall, one hundred bottles on the wall, take one down and pass it around, ninety-nine…

      On the other hand, if it was one hundred bottles of AI, all the money in the world would be spent by the time you got to ninety-six or so.

      Reply
  6. DJG, Reality Czar

    The new favorite bolthole for British “wealth creators” and other creatures out of a Monty Python sketch.

    Believe me, their presence has been duly noted. Given the current gigantic real-estate investment and permitting scandal currently going on in Milano, the ultra-wealthy Brits are considered part of the problem. There are plenty of articles in the Italian press about this, errrr, debatable tax break.

    And there’s this smidgeon (and it doesn’t get more Brit than this): “Natasha Slater, founder of The Robin Club, a private members’ club in Milan that connects wealthy entrepreneurs across cities, told the Daily Mail why Brits are moving to the city.” Enrollment fee: 5,000 euro.

    And this bit of geographic / cultural info: “Many Brits moving to Milan head for the upmarket Brera and Concilazione districts – which both Nicola and Antonia describe as ‘the south Kensington villagey part’ – although prices in both areas have begun to creep up.”

    Picio da corsa, as we say in the Undisclosed Region, which will remain undisclosed. It’s as if the Brits haven’t already fucked up Tuscanyland!

    Pass the bonet.

    Reply
      1. DJG, Reality Czar

        gk:

        They’re screwing with the Valsesia and Varallo?

        Varallo is a gem. I was there a year ago, a lapsed lapsed lapsed Catholic making a pilgrimage to the monte sacro, which is a remarkable place.

        From article caption: “The town of Varallo, in the Valsesia valley in northwestern Italy, where one Israeli couple paid 57,000 for a spacious home on a large plot of land, adding 10,000 euros for renovations. “The surroundings here are a dream that words can’t describe,” they say.”

        At a certain point, though, these dreamy intentionalists (of any stripe) are going to run up against reality. Varallo has been a (minor) center of power and major center for the arts for more than 500 years. As self-absorbed as the Israelis are, they may come to find out that they are just a blip. Also, too, there is a limit on the number of dog groomers needed in a mini-metropolis of 7 500 inhabitants.

        Reply
    1. Maxwell Johnston

      An amusing little article courtesy of the Daily Mail. Italy is a tax haven? Really? Who’d a thunk? I ought to inform my local tax accountant, but he might die of laughter at the very idea.

      Tax havens, like beauty, are in the eye of the beholder. It’s just a question of where you live and whom you’re trying to hide your money from. Back in the day, flying across the Atlantic on Lufty business class, I would skim the inflight magazine and see ads (auf Deutsch, with a smiling attractive young lady) for Delaware corporations. Privacy! Security! Confidentiality! America! Incredible nonsense, this Yankee propaganda, but lots of people buy into it. And I recall a taxi ride in Geneva in 2012 or so where I was asking the taxi driver (in my atrocious French, but of course he wasn’t a Swissie so his wasn’t exactly flawless either) how things were in lovely Geneve (supposedly the richest city on earth), and of course (like all taxi drivers worldwide) he began ranting about how bad everything was. “But you live in a tax haven, no?” That shut him up briefly.

      “Tuscanyland” is largely confined to Chiantishire. Up here in the far north of Tuscany, English voices are few and far between. The locals are proudly monolingual and speak very good Italian. Suits me fine.

      Reply
      1. DJG, Reality Czar

        Maxwell Johnston:
        Touché. The city I like most in Tuscany is Lucca, which is its own strange historic principality and wrinkle in spacetime. On the other hand, I am hearing that Firenze is more overrun with Anglos than ever. On a few trips in the summers to/from Roma, I marvelled at how the train empties at Firenze.

        You are right in that the tax break has many restrictions. One must establish residence. The break is on foreign income only (which isn’t much of a break because Italy doesn’t claim extraterritoriality with regard to its tax laws, as the U S of A does). Income that the suffering tax exiles make in Italy gets the usual treatment.

        Two articles. The flat tax max is going to 300 000 euro:
        https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2025/10/18/flat-tax-aumento-300mila-ricchi-stranieri-notizie/8165090/

        The many rules:
        https://www.quotidiano.net/economia/flat-tax-ricchi-stranieri-rktbkrqv

        Reply
  7. Henry Moon Pie

    People talking to God/AI–

    What a friend we have in AI Jesus! All our sins and griefs to bear. Feuerbach, the man who said we had created YHWH in our image rather than the other way around, would feel affirmed.

    On a related note, I’m noticing a lot of YouTube talkers addressing the origins of Zionism, and I’ve commented here about Darby-ism and the Scofield Bible. Here’s a YouTube discussion with a fellow who’s written a book (published by Oxford Academic) traces Christian Zionism back even further to the early Reformation and an English Presbyterian (i.e. Calvinist) preacher. The thread continues through the Pilgrims to the New Jerusalem in the Americas and even the new Zion, first in Independence, MO, then in Salt Lake City. The guy may be a little off-putting, but he knows his stuff. I learned a lot.

    The Christian Zionists are a big part of why AIPAC has such clout.

    Reply
    1. mrsyk

      Your own personal Jesus
      Someone to hear your prayers
      Someone who cares
      Your own personal Jesus
      Someone to hear your prayers
      Someone who’s there

      Johnny Cash, covering Depeche Mode

      Reply
    2. Wukchumni

      Arkies. Okies, et al that made it to Godzone during the Dust Bowl brought their dogma with them, Christian Zionism.

      So much in regards to religion is based upon what your parents did, you having no say in the matter.

      Reply
    3. Wukchumni

      The thread continues through the Pilgrims to the New Jerusalem in the Americas and even the new Zion, first in Independence, MO, then in Salt Lake City.

      Utah might be the prettiest state in the union, in particular the southern part.

      Mormonism strikes me as a most orderly order-little old towns have ancient orchards still bearing fruit, and everything is neat and in its place-kinda like Germany in terms of how the people are order oriented in Oder and elsewhere.

      It’s essentially Scientology of the 19th century, in that the gobbledygook its derived from is often nonsensical, with the difference being that they bred like rabbits early on, ensuring a return on their investment.

      Zion or Zions is the name of everything you can imagine in the Beehive State, Zions Muffler, Zions Bank, Zion NP, etc.

      Reply
  8. The Rev Kev

    “Rebuilding Gaza will take ‘decades,’ cost $70B, experts say”

    On the bright side, Israel has agreed to put their hands in their own pockets and offered to build the foundation for every new building in Gaza.

    Reply
  9. ocypode

    The First 48 Hours of a War With China ‘Could Be Ugly’ National Security Journal

    Probably Battle of Adrianople level of ugly. The delusions run high; I guess the US not fighting someone their own size for almost a century meant they forgot what actual total war is like.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      Completely ignored in this article is the question of logistics which tells me that this is not a serious article. Like, how do you re-supply all those units that you have scattered around the Pacific like so much confetti. Supply drones? Submarine supply? More to the point, how will the Pentagon replace all those weapons and missiles after the first coupla days if they do not have the refined earths to build them or the years that it will take to actually build them if they did have those refined rare earths.

      Reply
      1. Michaelmas

        Rev Kev: Completely ignored in this article is the question of logistics which tells me that this is not a serious article.

        It was beyond ‘not serious’ into Qing dynasty-level delusional, with passages saying things like the US will somehow meet such a war’s demands for “magazine depth—surging production of key munitions and operationalizing at-sea reloading—and fully integrating allied firepower.”

        Hilarious. Comedy gold.

        Reply
    2. Louis Fyne

      Marianas Turkey Shoot but in reverse. Historically, the US military has performed awfully in a debut battle against peers and non-peers, more often than not.

      In any modern 1st wold hypothetical war, there won’t be a 2nd chance. So goes the first 48 hours, there goes the war.

      theonly question becomes will the losing side (the US) graciously accept defeat or escalate to tactical nukes over an island (or NATO ally) that the majority of Americans cannot locate without Google’s help

      Reply
      1. Yalt

        Remember, Mommy
        I’m off to get a Commie
        So send me a salami
        And try to smile somehow
        I’ll look for you when the war is over
        An hour and a half from now

        Reply
      1. Geo

        That was my first thought as well. Even Vizzini in “The Princess Bride” knew one of the great blunders is to get involved in a land war in Asia.

        Best case scenario we’d suffer societal collapse due to loss of modern tech. Worst case we’d start a nuclear war and life on earth would be eradicated.

        Reply
    3. Donald

      The argument seemed to ignore the fact that Chinas has a vastly greater manufacturing capability. To use the WW2 analogy, it would be as if Japan launched a surprise attack knowing it would be able to manufacture 50,000 war planes per year while the U.S. coukd make a tiny fraction of that number.

      I think the field of national security studies must attract a lot of strange Walter Mitty types.

      Reply
      1. chris

        These are all spreadsheet cultists now. If I change a number in a database or spreadsheet, I am changing reality.

        It does not matter if I didn’t talk to anyone about changing that number. It doesn’t matter if I don’t understand the conditions which derived that number. Gantt charts be damned. Production time tables are stuff to be ignored. Stress testing supply chains is unnecessary. I did all I needed to do by changing the number in the cell on the spreadsheet. Others will work to make that happen.

        AI hallucinations are just an example of a child emulating its parent.

        Reply
  10. Polar Socialist

    I’d just like to point out that with Isabella’s Islay you pay for the bottle, not the content. The bottle is carved from crystal and covered with white cold, diamonds and rubies. I think they may even have diamond inside the bottle. Indeed one for the guillotine watch.

    The highest price paid for actual whisky is $2.7 million for the Macallan Fine & Rare 1926. It was distilled in 1926, bottled in 1986 (60 year old whisky) and auctioned in 2023. Only ten remains from the original 12, which Macallan never sold publicly, but reserved for high-end customers. Macallan was the first whisky to be granted the Royal Warrant in the early 19th century, so it’s The Whisky for the English upper classes and the most overpriced one, too.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      It is probably far too expensive to ever open and drink. That makes it an asset that give status like a mansion or a yacht as big as a frigate. Waiting for stone pyramids to become a trend among such people.

      Reply
      1. hk

        Eating Egyptian mummies was a thing in the Middle Ages–as medicine or something–presumably those taken from stone pyramids, too, if they could be managed. Just wondering aloud.

        Reply
    2. mrsyk

      Luxury packaging is not a novel idea.
      Somewhere down in the cellar I’ve a 70 yo Cognac bottled in a Baccarat crystal decanter. It’s been designated “apocalypse booze” and with some luck I may never crack the seal.

      Reply
      1. Wukchumni

        My ‘apocalypse food’ is a can of Underwood deviled ham that I hope never to use the pull back tab on the lid, to be honest.

        I appreciate that it has been pre-masticated for easier chewing, and as far as I know, is the only canned foodstuff that is wrapped in paper-just add a festive bow and you’ve got the Xmas gift exchange dilemma down pat.

        Reply
      2. Wukchumni

        Back when people played tennis, ‘tennis bracelets’ were popular and a jewelers whet dream as it solved the issue of smaller sized diamonds, what do you do with them?

        An earlier way to get rid of smaller goods was the cocktail ring-which is a funny name, as if booze and a bunch of small time diamonds got together.

        Getting rid of diamonds on a spendy bottle of booze, perfect.

        Reply
  11. Acacia

    Regarding new films of note: One Battle After Another (2025).

    This is Paul Thomas Anderson’s new and rather free adaptation of Pynchon’s Vineland.

    It’s a pretty fun ride with a Honkywood-competent vibe.

    I will go out on a limb to say that if there is any single new film in 2025 that comes close to capturing the current insanity in the U.S., this is it.

    Reply
    1. Geo

      Been an interesting year for auteur directors making social upheaval films. From Alex Garland’s “Civil War” to Ari Aster’s “Eddington” to PTA’s “On Battle After Another”.

      I really like all three directors but have not watched any of these films. Reading NC and keeping up with current events – and just existing in our current society – is enough of that subject for me. Not looking for a cinematic version of it at the movies.

      Was talking with a feisty 80+ year old woman while in Amsterdam last week. She asked why I was there and I said I was doing video work for a corporate client. She replied, “That’s stupid. Don’t do stupid work in our country. Go home and do good work to fix your stupid country.”

      It got me thinking about not just the work I’m doing but what I have done. What I can do. I’ve tried to make films that unify, bridge divides, and offer positive visions of our humanity. That few have seen them is not the main concern. What concerns me is how media that divides and perpetuates negative visions of humanity saturate our landscape. Chicken or the egg: does negative media create our negative society or vice versa? The old “if it bleeds it leads” mentality?

      Went to see Abby Martin’s new film “Earth’s Greatest Enemy” last night. Happy to support her stellar work. But couldn’t help noticing it was an echo chamber audience. I’d be willing to bet not a single mind was changed in that theater.

      That’s what I love about Naked Capitalism. Every day we get a cross section of news and opinions to digest and see real in real time as debates go down in the comments. Open minds meeting each other respectfully to engage in ideas and facts. Sure, it can be depressing but such is life. It is also hopeful because it shows growth and change is possible.

      That’s what I want to bring more to in my own work and see in the work of others. And why I have no interest in Hollywood tales of division and unrest even if made by the best filmmakers in the business. Give me Iranian filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof‘s “There is No Evil” (one of the greatest films of the past decade in my opinion) any day over that stuff. Maybe no one will watch it (I don’t know anyone else whose seen that film, and as I said, few have seen my own films) but I’d rather create and support positive visions of humanity and unity then more divisiveness.

      But that’s just me. To each their own.

      Reply
      1. DJG, Reality Czar

        Geo:

        Hmmm. You didn’t receive advice. You received a disquisition from John Calvin in a brassiere. To wit:

        She asked why I was there and I said I was doing video work for a corporate client. She replied, “That’s stupid. Don’t do stupid work in our country. Go home and do good work to fix your stupid country.”

        Why order you around? It may be that, living here in Italy, the mother culture of the West, and along with Greece, the great teacher and preserver of classical and Western culture, I would present a response to you to observe what the Italians do and then make contrasts.

        Since I have arrived in Italy, I have still — still — to spend time dismantling U.S. daft racial categories and the tendency toward racial categorization. That’s something you could start in Amsterdam.

        Further, outside the U S of A looking in, one sees how badly that U.S. government and the powers-that-be treat the citizens. It is stark from afar. So you can use the distance to reshape your ideas.

        And then (hypothetically, here in the Undisclosed Region), you could indulge in bonet and make choices about what your work is.

        Reply
  12. eg

    “Europe and the US Are Drifting Apart and It Isn’t Just Because of Trump”

    If there even is a “Europe” as a unitary actor of sorts (which is debatable), it cannot craft a coherent trade position in the world until it seriously engages with Russia in a mutually acceptable security architecture. Until then it will remain a plaything of the US State Department.

    Reply
    1. pjay

      Exactly.

      I was very interested in reading what this author, writing in Jacobin, thought about the devastating effects of the Ukraine war on the European economy, not to mention its politics and social policies. Imagine my surprise when I found out that this barely merits a mention. Here is the mention:

      “After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, security suddenly became the scarce and costly good — and only the United States could provide it, as Europe’s post–Cold War order had prioritized the “peace dividend” over defense.”

      “This tilted the balance of power toward Washington, giving America leverage to demand a higher premium in other areas, including trade.”

      That’s it. Perhaps it’s a clue. There is another line about Trump whining about Europe continuing to buy Russian oil. Perhaps that is another hint about the costs to Europe in completely severing economic ties with that rather large and resource-rich country to its East. These ties were mutually beneficial and promised increased opportunities as Russia was reintegrated into the European economy after the Cold War. This was recognized by many European leaders at the time. But those leaders no longer exist.

      The number one goal of the Ukraine war was to severe this growing economic relationship between Europe and Russia. It has almost succeeded. How was this accomplished? By whom? Who benefits? Was ending this “dependency” on Russian energy and the resulting increase in “American leverage” worth it? To whom?

      There are a whole bunch of related questions that seem crucial to me if you are going to discuss the European economy in the context of geopolitics. This author does not seem to want to deal with them. The unstated assumption seems to be that Russia started the war in 2022, and that reliance on the “peace dividend” might have been a mistake but regardless Europe can no longer afford it. Sounds about right for the “socialism” of Jacobin.

      Reply
      1. Aurelien

        It repeats the tired old idea that the US can “guarantee security,” which is taking a long time to die. Without much of a security capability, the US has very little security leverage, and what it has now is in the process of disappearing. For the moment, the Europeans are prepared to make sacrifices to avoid the consistent nightmare of a US/Russia deal which affects their interests but where they have no voice. But I suspect that’s a lost cause as well. The idea that Russia invaded Ukraine to destroy its economic relationship with Europe is, well, innovative ….

        Reply
        1. pjay

          To be clear, if you are referirng to my own view, it is that it was the US/NATO and their European compradors that wanted to sever the economic ties between Europe and Russia, once it became clear that Russia could not be completely dismantled and looted from within. And so they did so, by continuing to back Russia into a corner for 30 years. Russia desired quite the opposite.

          You will likely see this as an ethnocentric view with the US as the center of the world that does not give enough “agency” to the many complex European interests involved in this history. Again, my response is: we had people writing about this strategy, predicting the outcomes, getting themselves into positions of power, taking advantage of these many competing and conflicting interests (including those in Eastern Europe and Ukraine itself) and doing what was necessary to get the task done. We had Putin desiring closer ties with Europe, then issuing plea and warning after plea and warning as the West continued to reject these with disdain while moving closer to Russian borders. This is not to deny the existence of Russophobia in Europe, especially in the East. These fears and historical tensions, and the leaders pushing them, proved quite useful in constructing this new Iron Curtain that benefits neither Europe nor Russia.

          Reply
        2. Michaelmas

          It repeats the tired old idea that the US can “guarantee security,” which is taking a long time to die.

          Thank you.

          Reply
        3. AG

          re: ending Russia – Germany

          Another item of evidence is the most recent appearance of former Chancellor Schröder at this totally ignored NordStream 2 investigation Committee by the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

          announcement of the hearing:
          https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/untersuchungsausschuss-zur-stiftung-klima-und-umweltschutz-mv-befragt-gerhard-schroeder-und-helge-braun-1

          The Committee:

          https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles?tx_news_pi1%5Bcontroller%5D=News&tx_news_pi1%5Bsearch%5D%5BfilteredCategory%5D=115&tx_news_pi1%5Bsearch%5D%5Byear%5D=2022&tx_news_pi1%5Bsearch%5D%5Bsubject%5D=&tx_news_pi1%5BcurrentPage%5D=1

          It had been set up in June of 2022 to investigate the events surrounding the construction of NS2, because of the alleged environmental impact.

          They since tried to somehow not entirely ignore the elephant – that is the destruction of the very subject of their investigation in autumn 2022 – without seriously drawing conclusions.

          This farce has been going on for 3 years now.

          Schröder had been supposed to give testimony months ago but apparently was ill.

          Schröder´s appearance was streamed on October 17th.
          I have not yet found the original record of this hearing.
          I hope it will be soon released.

          MSM have reported but needless to say in an insane, demonising way.

          As far as I understand none of the people involved in building NS2 heard on Oct. 17th were sorry for their decision.
          MSM of course cried foul and pestilence and pictured Schröder as Putin’s one-man-5th column.

          So I have no 100% assurance based on those MSM-reports what was really said (and what not.).

          We do know from past hearings that witnesses did mention odd visits by most likely CIA in Northern Germany or those threats by the Trump I administration to stop NS2. Back then Scholz was “dealing” with that (he did nothing of course) under Merkle as her minister of finance.

          Considering all this background and all the personnel involved the way how this decoupling from Russia has been taking place defies any serious debate. It´s merely “Daddy”-level of acting.

          Everybody involved knows the truth.

          Another rather comical one is the ongoing attempt to spread that idiotic tale about ANDROMEDA and using those Ukrainians as patsies. Most embarrassing is the unbelievable fact that it actually is being taken seriously enough even by German alternative media (yes I am talking about NACHDENKSEITEN but also smaller ones.)

          Reply
  13. Hank Linderman

    I want those heavy truck eyes for my minivan. They appear to be mimicking what the drivers eyes are doing – this might be a good thing if all cars had it… or not!

    Best…H

    Reply
    1. ADU

      They remind me of the beautifully painted trucks in Pakistan. However, with all the flashing lights and glitter, it may be difficult to see the basics, such as a turn signal.

      Reply
  14. The Rev Kev

    “Is the US about to attack Venezuela?”

    Funny thing you know. Trump has been having random boats being blown up because they were all full of drugs and crewed by narcoterrorists. Or so he says. But he just had another boat blown up but this time there was a difference – there were two survivors. The Navy went in and grabbed them instead of machine gunning them in the water. So what did they do with those two narcoterrorist? Send them to Guantanamo Bay for an extended visit? Keep them in the ship’s brig while they undergo intensive question-answer sessions by teams of burly men? No, they sent them home. One to Colombia and one to Ecuador so that the courts there could deal with them. Unfortunately for Trump, neither was from Venezuela. Strange treatment for a pair of narcoterrorists who pose a deadly threat to the US I would say.

    Reply
    1. Geo

      I’m sure our bombing of little fishing boats in the Caribbean is striking fear into the hearts of the Chinese government and all other global adversaries. Between the Trump military parade, our DoW Hegseth spouting “FAFO”, and these shows of force, we must look so macho and not at all like a clown car with the wheels falling off.

      Reply
  15. Wukchumni

    Antidote…

    Lions, by Dire Straits

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YN0QOg3FLxk&list=RDYN0QOg3FLxk

    My hair’m is down to a couple of 12 year old boys-and as luck would have it, we’re all the same age in cat years.

    They really are little lions, Blackie approximating a mini-Black Panther-1/14th scale that is, who would prefer to be out at night to better blend in, while Einstein (brains of the outfit) the white cat in a grey flannel suit is a stone cold killer who’ll have nothing to do with the wild turkeys, staring up at their snood is enough to give you the willies. How’d they survive when the dinosaurs didn’t?

    Reply
  16. The Rev Kev

    “Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant repairs begin in Ukraine as ceasefire zones set”

    Did Director General Rafael Grossi ever work out who has been shelling this nuke plant? There is equipment that will tell you from where a shell came from and how far away but it seems strange that Grossi never asked for them to be deployed at that plant so he could find out who to blame.

    Reply
    1. moog

      Grossi cant even properly operate mark 1 eyeball, let alone advanced equipment (like the counter-battery radar you are talking about).

      Reply
  17. MicaT

    Nexperia.
    I was reading an article yesterday and it said if nexperia will stop selling its chips unless this whole thing is reversed. If it does stop selling car chips it’ll cause most of Europes auto makers to not be able to make cars in just a few weeks. And will also have a big impact on US automakers.
    Just another realism about the west has no control over China, it’s not just rare earths.

    And the classification on this company started under Biden.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      It’s like the Dutch government went into pirate mode and just stole this company from the Chinese but never stopped to game out how the Chinese could retaliate and what it would means for chip supply in the EU. What is wrong with this people? Do they really believe that actions never have any consequences? If so, I have news for them and it is all bad.

      Reply
    2. Ignacio

      In a article published yesterday, and which states the same as you wrote (in Spanish) it says that the EU Commission is evaluating if the decision by the Netherlands government breaks the rules of free competition or if it simply jeopardizes the security of supply. Yet i don’t believe this stance. the Commission has apparently endorsed the decision and there are voices asking for “a more offensive way” toward (against) China. EU policymakers have definitely lost their minds if this is true.

      Reply
    3. Michaelmas

      MicaT: the west has no control over China, it’s not just rare earths.

      Meanwhile, just China’s control over rare earths is enough to shut down the AI bubble and crash the US’s stock market and economy any time Beijing wishes.

      Reply
  18. Wukchumni

    World’s landscapes may soon be ‘devoid of wild animals’, says nature photographer The Guardian
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    With the exception of the Marmot Cong hanging out in lower altitude haunts than usual in clandestine troop movements along the Ho Chi-Mineral King Cong trail, there was less deer and bears this summer, everybody in the community being in agreement.

    Reply
  19. Nikkikat

    Regarding the “No kings” protest. What a load of crap. Obvious democrat party nonsense. Trump thinking he is a king, the least of our troubles. It’s the policies he is using. Typical, distracting nincompoops with some pretend crapola like this! Not worth anyone time!
    F the Dem party to hell and back!!!!!

    Reply
      1. Pat

        Only makes you wonder if missing one brunch in ten months to protest because your candidate was incompetent and lost constitutes commitment.

        (And it really makes me happy that I haven’t been at the almost forty brunches to hear the wailing and complaints when so much of what is wrong would be happening with their preferred ruler anyway just with less bombast and chaos. That is not to say that authoritarian overload we are experiencing is good just merely experiencing less of it doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.)

        Reply
  20. Ben Panga

    GAS STATION DOG WITH EMPLOYEE BADGE BECOMES INTERNET STAR (Khao Sod)

    A brown stray dog who became an unofficial employee at a local gas station has captured Thailand’s heart after photos of his employee ID card went viral on social media.

    Namtan—a name that means both “brown sugar” and references his coat color—has been working at the PTT station on Thanyaburi-Wang Noi Road in Klong Luang district for four years. His official employee card lists his full name as “Namtan Klong 7,” with the nickname “Tan” and his position as “Patrol Unit.”…

    What started as an act of kindness has evolved into something special. Station owner Thirapong Lappholtaweying found Namtan wandering the streets years ago and decided to take him in.

    “I felt sorry for him,” Thirapong said. “But he turned out to be naturally friendly and liked approaching people, so we made him our patrol unit to help look after customers.”…

    Reply
  21. hamstak

    For more evidence of the devolution of US politics, and the current administration in particular, into juvenile delinquency, the latest Simplicius post “Zelensky Gets the Fig Amid Trump Admin’s Whacky Day” offers a couple of morsels.

    >>>

    [in re: potential US-Russia summit] HuffPost asked the White House: Who picked Budapest?

    White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded minutes later with: “Your mom did.

    White House Communications Director Steven Cheung after a minute added the far more succinct: “Your mom.

    >>>

    The adults are in charge!.

    Additionally, JD Vance apparently posted an image on Bluesky of Trump wearing a crown (presumably mocking No Kings). I wonder if he recognizes the ambiguity in this.

    If I may offer an analogy for the Trump II admin (with apologies for anyone who may have earlier formulated the same): he has obtained the keys to the country and is taking it for a joy ride.

    Reply
  22. Wukchumni

    {knock Knock}

    Grammar police, open up!

    Drudge headline:

    ‘Heist At The Louvre
    Napolen’s Jewels Stolen’

    Napoleon is a pretty hard word to butcher, and also doubles as a decadent desert.

    Reply
  23. Tom Stone

    I have been somewhat surprised to see the Supremes piss away their legitimacy so casually.
    With the exception of Thomas they are presumably Men and Women of above average intelligence…yet their abuse of the Shadow Docket has been so obviously partisan and so lacking in respect for precedent that a large percentage of Federal Judges have lost respect for their opinions.
    Efffing Stoopid behaviour, of which I see much more of as time passes.
    Public figures take no Covid precautions and I wonder how much Covid induced brain damage contributes to
    the increasingly risky and stupid behavior of the “elites”.

    Reply
  24. Jason Boxman

    I was lately considering that I’ve gotten the timeline for COVID wrong; I thought that perhaps by 2030 there might be enough of a population level heath burden that some kind of awareness might kindle an idea that as a society we should maybe do something.

    But I’m beginning to realize that this is a slow moving generational health catastrophe that is going to take place over the course of lifetimes, well beyond my own. Even repeat infection isn’t fatal enough to spur some kind of public awareness and response. What damage is done is often sub-clinical, the immediate symptoms from infection brief in duration, however unpleasant. Other damage is not easily relatable to a recent or past SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    I was wondering what kind of effect this might have over a millennia on humanity. Searching the Internet didn’t turn up much. We seem to use death as a proxy for the severity of epidemics; what kind of historical proxy would you use for mass disability? So I haven’t been able to come up with any historical analogues for what happens to a population due to some pathogen that causes a wide variety of impairments, over a time, to a population.

    I did come across this, which I agree with (The rise and fall of diseases: reflections on the history of population health in Europe since ca. 1700):

    It is in the confrontation with cholera that public health developed its paradigmatic approach, which can be summarized in three axioms. (1) Most diseases arise in the interaction between people and the environment, (2) so we can and must try to radically remove their causes, and (3) this can only be done if we take collective responsibility for these measures, i.e., if the government takes the lead [24].

    Public health has played a decisive role in the decline of many diseases, not only of plague, smallpox, typhus and cholera, but also of pneumoconiosis, lung cancer, cirrhosis of the liver, road traffic injuries and many other health problems. Over the last three centuries, public health clearly wins out over other forms of human intervention [3] (pp. 284–287).

    I’m probably thinking about something like this, but for the past 1,000 years, given how slow COVID is unfolding: Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

    For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions.

    Looks like someone made an attempt: The greatest health problem of the Middle Ages? Estimating the burden of disease in medieval England (paywalled sadly)

    And this is my point

    Among medieval health problems, we estimate that plague was probably 7th–10th in overall importance. Although lethal and disruptive, it struck only periodically and had less cumulative long-term human consequences than chronically endemic conditions (e.g. bacterial and viral infections causing infant and child death, tuberculosis, and other pathogens).

    Anyway, my contention is that COVID is going to break humanity over lifetimes, and what’s happening is opaque to the overwhelming majority of people, so there is no end date where we’ll begin to see broad awareness and a desperately necessary course correction.

    We’re cooked, like with Climate.

    This timeline is lit.

    Reply
  25. Jason Boxman

    Surprise, surprise, Israel is already violating the cease fire

    Israel strikes Gaza and orders halt to aid after accusing Hamas of violating ceasefire (CNN, paywall) (CNBC, working link)

    Not agreement capable.

    Israel on Sunday struck targets in southern Gaza after saying its troops came under fire from Hamas militants, in the first major test of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire meant to halt more than two years of war.

    Militants used a rocket-propelled grenade, and Israel responded with airstrikes and artillery, the military said.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consulted with Israel’s security heads and directed the military to take “strong action” against any ceasefire violations, but didn’t threaten to return to war.

    Reply

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