Links 1/28/2026

Devoted Bernese Puppy Loves Taking Blind Chow Chow on Walks Laughing Squid (resilc)

Cuttlefish use polarized light to create a dramatic mating display invisible to humans PhysOrg

Keto diet weight loss may come with a hidden cost Science Daily (Kevin W). n=1 but yours truly has experimented with keto (the NIH should pay me for all the dietary supplement and diet experiments I have conducted on myself). It does work. It sort of has to because when you are in a ketogenic state, you metabolize consumed calories less efficiently. You have to break down proteins and fats to make blood sugar, which is less efficient than using carbs for that. Your brain works fine on keto but exercise, particularly cardio, becomes really arduous. I have never thought keto was a good idea other than for short term (say weeks to a couple of months) because you have to so restrict the types of food you eat that it is pretty hard not to be limiting the micronutrients you get from fruit and veg. This shows it has other negatives when practiced on an ongoing basis.

Climate/Environment

In polar regions, microbes are influencing climate change as frozen ecosystems thaw PhysOrg

Collapse at Lake Chad: How Climate Stress Transforms Resources Into Flashpoints International Affairs Review

China places blankets on ice: the experimental strategy that could slow glacier melting Noticias Ambientales

‘Air conditioners are struggling’: parts of NSW, Queensland and Victoria swelter as heat records tumble Guardian (resilc)

Dire Colorado River outcomes may be unavoidable, US report shows HavausNews

China?

Xi’s Military Meltdown China Talk

Prime minister flies to China for three-day visit BBC (Kevin W)

India

‘Mother of all deals’: EU and India sign free trade agreement Guardian

Southeast Asia

Myanmar’s war headed for a tipping point in 2026 Asia Times

South of the Border

Venezuelan Crude Is Losing Its Appeal in China OilPrice (resilc)

Venezuela’s Strategic Oil Reorientation: Defying The Blockade, Securing Sovereignty Popular Resistance

European Disunion

Now others are blackmailing: Europe is dissolving in self-pity Overton via machine translation (Micael T)

From Politico’s morning European newsletter:

WHAT EUROPE WAS TOLD ABOUT TRUMP’S STATE OF MIND: One of Europe’s most pro-Donald Trump leaders came back from a meeting with the U.S. president badly rattled — and told this to some of his counterparts at last week’s EU summit, according to five diplomats who spoke to POLITICO for a major story published on our website this morning….

Dangerous: Fico’s conversation with his European counterparts took place in an informal huddle on the sidelines of last Thursday’s emergency EU summit, with the Slovak PM and a small bunch of other leaders and EU officials. Fico said he was concerned about the U.S. president’s “psychological state,” two of the diplomats said. Fico used the word “dangerous” to describe how the U.S. president came across during their face-to-face meeting at Trump’s estate, according to two of the diplomats.

A notable verdict: These remarks carry extra weight because Fico is no Trump skeptic. Quite the opposite. He regularly echoes Trump’s critique of Europe, has spoken of him in glowing terms and — even after the Mar-a-Lago meeting — posted a Facebook video touting Trump’s “respect and trust.” Publicly, Fico said their talks were “informal and open.”

Hungary to challenge EU ban on Russian gas imports at European Court IntelliNews

Old Blighty

Bailey warns shadow banking could threaten financial system The Times

UK: Pro-Palestine protesters charged with calling for ‘intifada’ Middle East Eye (resilc)

The great Ministry of Defence-to-Palantir pipeline openDemocracy (Colonel Smithers)

Record number of people in UK live in ‘very deep poverty’, analysis shows Guardian

Why Britain’s crumbling canals are a ticking timebomb Daily Mail

Sewage Map (Colonel Smithers). Aieee!

Israel v. the Resistance

Map shows what would happen to Gaza under the US ‘master plan’ Aljazeera (Kevin W)

Iranian government braces for possible attack as US navy arrives in region Guardian

If war with Iran happens, it could be a disaster for Trump Conflicts Forum

War w/Iran Would NOT be Short /Alastair Crooke & Lt Col Daniel Davis YouTube

Syraqistan

Beyond a reset: US-Pakistan ties exemplify new era of pragmatism Asia Times (Kevin W)

New Not-So-Cold War

Kommersant Interviews Dmitri Medvedev Karl Sanchez

Germany decided that it needed air defense systems more than Ukraine TopWar (Micael T)

How history punished Finland for its aggression toward Russia Vzglyad via maching translation. Micael T: “After you read this, you really wonder what the hell the Finns are thinking, if at all, in their aggression towards Russia. Seinähullu!”

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

TikTok Is Now Collecting Even More Data About Its Users. Here Are the 3 Biggest Changes Wired (resilc)

Police Told to Be ‘as Vague as Permissible’ About Why They Use Flock 404 Media

Imperial Collapse Watch

Davos, Carney and the staged revolt against American hegemony Thomas Fazi

Managing The Powerful Aurelien

Trump’s Board of Peace Cracks the BRICS Wall Foreign Policy. We have said that the significance of BRICS has been considerably exaggerated, aside from one very important initiative, that of serving as a venue for promoting the development of bi-lateral trade plumbing. Most BRICS members individually and key BRICS official position statements make clear that most BRICS members want to get on with the West and in particular preserve the current international institutional architecture (World Bank, IMF, WTO, UN) but have Global South countries exercise more power in them. So the positioning of the piece is a straw man…..albeit many anti-globalists have also been way out over their skis re BRICS.

The military is babying F-35s to hide their true cost to taxpayers Responsible Statescraft (Kevin W)

READING: THOUKYDIDES: On the Civil War in Korkyra Brad DeLong

Trump 2.0

US quietly passes new rule to track millions on Social Security – will your trips be watched? Daily Observer. Note this is a plan to enforce existing Security rules aggressively. I read a lot of “retire abroad” books and articles. Not a single one mentioned these Social Security regulations. This would screw a lot of expat retirees, many of whom can’t afford to live in the US on Social Security or could not live anywhere near as well. A decent % also depend on Social Security to provide an adequate income level to meet visa requirements in their new home country. And don’t assume that you can fly under the radar (say by taking your Social Security in the US and transferring it overseas and relying on enforcement efforts going after those who have their Social Security direct deposited abroad, which here seems to be just about everyone). Getting paid too much in Social Security due to a failure to report = fraud. They will claw back the money. From what I have seen here, the foreign recipient bank (only one, Bangkok Bank, receives Social Security payments), is extremely sensitive to potential Social Security fraud and would jump if Social Security asked them to.

Trump’s Adaptability Is a Virtue, Not a Vice American Conservative. resilc: “Too funny.”

ICE Rampage

Trump Backs Noem After Sending Border Czar to Revamp Minnesota Deportation Effort Bloomberg

Man tackled after spraying Omar with unknown substance at Minneapolis town hall The Hill

War Secretary Greenlights ICE Using Military Base in Minnesota Antiwar.com (Kevin W). Haha, can’t get hotel space.

Masked thugs, sneering elites and terrified citizens: a picture of the US today. We used to have a name for this Guardian. resilc: “All this gets lots of TV time in France.”

ICE Math YouTube (resilc). Those ICE bonuses are not what they seem to be!

Tillis says Noem should be ‘out of a job’ over Minneapolis response The Hill versus Palantir Defends Work With ICE to Staff Following Killing of Alex Pretti Wired (resilc)

Emerson Poll shows Trump’s support slipping nationwide James Dorsey

Trump splits with Vance over Minneapolis shooting Telegraph

Trump Advisers Quietly Turn on Stephen Miller as Brutal ICE Poll Hits New Republic (resilc). One can hope…

Not AI, her employer reacted:

IM Doc’s comments:

Succinylcholine is an instant paralytic. It will knock out every muscle in your body in seconds. Including your diaphragm. The sensory system is 100% intact. The victim will be unable to move, breathe, scream, say anything – all the while they will feel themselves dying over several minutes. So heinous that not even the most horrific of criminals in the USA is executed this way – they are given succinylcholine in lethal injection – but only after they are completely knocked out with multiple other drugs. This CRNA is suborning murder in the most hideous fashion possible. This is just incredible to me. The cheering squad I read through in its original post is for the ages. I no longer even remotely recognize my country, much less my profession. Again, how are we attracting these psychos? Does the thought ever cross her mind that she is literally throwing her entire career down the toilet? All the years of work?

The risk and legal departments at VCU are now going to have a shit storm. Every single death under her care is now going to have to be thoroughly investigated – every single death under her care is now likely to be a lawsuit – and if the victim is MAGA or law enforcement – sorry to say – they are absolutely screwed.

This is just incredible. It is what I am saying all along – we are surrounded by psychos on every side. This country is really in for it.

Our No Longer Free Press

Social Media Giants Face Landmark Legal Tests on Child Safety New York Times

The Lies Get So Tedious Caitlin Johnstone (Micael T)

Economy

What Do Truck Shipping Indexes Say About the US Economy? Michael Shedlock. Props for an exacting analysis

US consumer confidence plunges to 12-year low Financial Times

Mr. Market is Giddy

Just How High Can Silver Really Go? Ian Welsh. I remember at the height of the Hunt silver squeeze that consumers were bringing in silver sets and candlesticks to be melted for their metal content.

Frosts overheated the EU and US gas markets Vzglyad via machine translation (Micael T)

Investors bet on ‘hot’ US economy heading into midterm elections Financial Times. Lead story

AI

Computers can’t surprise aeon (Micael T)

Data centers are facing an image problem. The tech industry is spending millions to rebrand them Grist

Microsoft’s plans for 15 more data centers win approval at former Wisconsin Foxconn site CNBC (Kevin W

The Bezzle

Private credit firms sell debt to themselves at record rate Financial Times

Guillotine Watch

Elon Musk Haters Have Found a Hilariously Easy Way to Make Money on Polymarket Futurism

The billionaire boys fight the wealth tax Oligarch Watch

Class Warfare

Scott Galloway Explains How YOU Can Stop Government Overreach Using the Power of Your Purse Open Culture. Micael T: “I do like the concrete proposals but ffs the problem is not government overreach but oligarch overreach.”

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus:

A second bonus:

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here

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145 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “Hungary to challenge EU ban on Russian gas imports at European Court”

    If the EU has a just justice system, Hungary should win. The EU has tried to sanction all Russian gas but needing a unanimous vote, Fico and Orban have made sure to vote against it. But now the EU is doing the same proposal but pretending that it is a trading agreement which only needs a majority vote. In the EU, the law can be such a flexible thing or even ignored.

    If this goes through, then the EU is borked. It gets a bit of gas from Algeria and Qatar but the bulk majority comes from the US and this change would mean that the EU is totally dependent on the US. But I also heard that US gas is starting to run down so that in 10-15 years the US will have to cut gas exports to save that gas for the local market. At that point, the people of Europe will be reduced to rubbing two sticks together for warmth in the wintertime. This is the most idiotic timeline.

    1. Skip Intro

      Slovakia reportedly is also suing the EU over the ban. I can see the suits succeeding as the EU finds a face saving way to back off of the suicidal policy without appearing to be soft on Putin.
      And of course, oil & gas revenue from the EU is irrelevant to Russia’s ability to produce arms and fight in Ukraine, so the self-sacrifice is stupidly pointless as well.

      1. Ben Panga

        The debunk link had a link to a searchable archive of Trump’s truth posts

        https://trumpstruth.org/

        I had a dabble and you seem to be able to search by keyword OR date range.

        Maybe useful for those of us who want to see what he says without using his platform.

  2. flora

    An aside:
    Whenever I see a photo of Stephan Miller I think of the title of Hannah Arendt’s famous book Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil .

    1. Sam Culotte

      George Orwell once said that he wasn’t surprised that people could be evil. He was surprised, however, that they were never ashamed.

  3. ThirtyOne

    War Secretary Greenlights ICE Using Military Base in Minnesota

    Maybe they found some “extra fresh” ingredients in their food.

    1. ilsm

      As far as I can see, Ft Snelling is an Army Reserve Post. The remnants of a once large army post.

      It probably has a fairly large system of barracks for the weekend warriors, most of which less than the standard Hampton Inn!

      1. redleg

        Having worked on that site back in the day (surveyor and construction QC), most of the post housing is not useable. The majority of the buildings are lovely limestone structures that have been awaiting restoration for years. The newer brick structures don’t look big enough to hold a brigade but I haven’t been in them. Even the (once nice) O club has been abandoned since 2010 or so. I suppose that DHS/ICE funding to restore the structures to a habitable state is a positive for Minnesota, but JFC where in the wide wide world of sports are they going to get a construction crew to work on that project?

        The Navy and Air Force Reserve bases at MSP might have additional housing, although it might be cots on the drill floor instead of barracks or rooms. I would question their per diem if thay get government housing and a mess hall.

        1. danpaco

          Being a contractor for ICE right now would be like winning the lottery. You could charge any price you wanted and with their tech start-up like budget approvals it would be accepted.
          Morals be damned!

  4. The Rev Kev

    “Trump splits with Vance over Minneapolis shooting”

    Trump screwed up badly here – twice. He either had to admit that he believed the lie told to him that Alex Pretti was an assassin without checking the evidence or he would have had to admit that he lied himself about Alex Pretti. So he did the only thing that he could. He threw his team members – including Vance – under a bus so hard that they bounced.

    But then came his second error. He blathered that ‘That being said, you can’t have guns, you can’t walk in with guns… it’s a very unfortunate incident.’ This automatically infuriated the Second Amendment believers as well as the all powerful National Rifle Association. He really needs to put his brain into gear before engaging his mouth.

      1. The Rev Kev

        I don’t know why those MAGA crazies have to be so insulting to JD Vance. Yeah, the guy is short and reminds me of Trump’s mini-me (as depicted in South Park) but he is definitely taller that 48 inches.

    1. flora

      Well T was obviously just repeating what Kash Patel has been saying this week. Kash is clearly wrong. The Constitution is whole. The Bill of Rights are whole. They aren’t a pick-and-choose list of options.

      Then Rep. Barbara Jordan on the Constitution.
      utube, ~13+ minutes.

      B Jordan impeachment speech

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG6xMglSMdk

    2. voislav

      I remember IM Doc (IIRC) mentioning that Trump might have white matter disease, so there may not be a gear to put the brain into.

  5. mrsyk

    “Meet Melinda”, I am ever so curious as to how that post made it through TikTok’s moderation.

    1. The Rev Kev

      She is crazy enough and is virtually confessing on those videos to encouraging felonies. Then the thought occurred to me that this is the exact personality type that would kill babies as a midwife or would kill old people through various drugs because they can. They are out there and I have read about such people. But to see one talking about their plans is kinda freaky.

      1. t

        Or, she is just desperate for attention and crashed around looking for something outrageous to post. Which isn’t much better.

        There was a trend a while back for OBGYN nurses to squirt lube on the perfectly unwrinkled paper of an exam table that had not been used and then film themselves making fun of a fictional patient who was meant to be leaking something. A witless form of slut shaming I guess. Incoherent cruelty.

    2. pjay

      Yes. It is certainly possible this is real. But my first knee jerk reaction was different than IM Doc’s. To begin with, it was posted by ‘Libs of Tik Tok’, a right-wing propaganda site that specializes in highlighting such extreme examples to smear “liberals.” My first question was whether this person was real. But even if she was – and crazy enough to risk the consequences suggested by both IM Doc and Rev Kev – this is not representative of the mindset or philosophy of the majority of protesters.

      It certainly provides propaganda ammunition to the Miller-Noem-Vance narrative though, and therefore is doing a tremendous disservice to those who are literally risking their lives against these thugs. Yes, there are crazies of all political persuasions. But this seems just a little too convenient.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        I thought this was likely AI and did not run the tweet until IM Doc tracked down the tweet from her employer, to which I linked above to substantiate her clips.

      2. IM Doc

        Yes – but as I point out above – these health care workers have been “supplying propaganda” all week. Some of them are just egregious. These are absolutely real. This has nothing to do with libs of tiktok. I gave Yves the Libs of Tik Tok link because she had kindly put together in one place all the crazy videos this individual has been creating for days with the wild cheers of supporters in the comments. Libs of Tik Tok is just the National Enquirer exposing it to the world. Except in this case – she does not need to embellish – the health care workers have the hideous behavior down to the tee.

        And again, unfortunately, this is not isolated behavior. This is going on with all kinds of medical students. You can rest assured that this CRNA, Melinda, has been building up to this for a long time. There is nothing “a little too convenient” about what I hear in my own world and the stories I hear all the time.

        I long ago realized that our culture and our politics is in a death spiral. We have absolutely horrible people on all sides egging this on. I am a Democrat – I could not even begin to consider voting for them now. I feel the same about the GOP. The crazy is all around us. Until ALL SIDES realize the danger we are in – we are just going to be in a never-ending slide. I would encourage everyone to have their eyes and ears open.

        1. flora

          an aside: I received a begging letter from Minnesota’s Ken Martin today. Yes. That guy. Current chair of the DNC. (Donkeys Need Cash / ;)

        2. Jason Boxman

          It is a shame that hospital systems aren’t freaking out over infecting patients with SARS-CoV-2; no one masked in the cardiac ICU my dad briefly inhabited before he died. No one. I find it doubtful that contracting SARS-CoV-2 would improve the outcome prospects for a patient in an ICU.

          This timeline is stupid.

      3. alrhundi

        Good point. Libs of Tik Tok is a propaganda outlet. Either this is real and they found it to post for outrage or its fake for the same reason.

        1. IM Doc

          It has become very tedious for those of us trying to rationally figure out what is going on to have constantly valid issues from the other side dismissed as propaganda.

          Neither the numerous videos this individual, and many others this week, posted on their own accounts – which I saw before pulled down, or all the comments and issues I have to deal with these students are propaganda.

          Again, part of the nuts on both sides problem is the absolute unwilling behavior to acknowledge the problems on your own side.

          These nuts are on the side that I have belonged to for years. They are damaging so much about what valid issues that others have. I am very tough on them – because I can see right through it.

    3. IM Doc

      Well, I suppose it was the same way they allowed any number of comments on some of those videos when I was first made aware of them a few days ago. Pages and pages and pages of absolutely psychotic stuff. Mind you, a lot of that may very well be bots – I am certain that there are malign actors all around us that are egging this polarization on. But many of them were clearly not. And unfortunately, at least a few of them appeared to be from people in the same institution. In other words, others knew, and were backing this behavior to the hilt. This has all been removed now of course. I would dare say that the VCU institution has a lot of investigation and hopefully soul-searching in its future. There may also be a lot of “get out the checkbook and start writing” fun.

      I think I should make something very clear. This nurse was a CRNA – a certified registered nurse anesthetist. My understanding is that she mainly worked in the pediatrics area. Because of her position, she not only had access to succinylcholine, but countless other drugs that could kill a patient in the blink of an eye. There have been numerous stories across the nation of anesthesia professionals gone bad and killing patients under their care. The scary part of this story is her patients were apparently kids. In other words, she sees grandpa is a deputy – and takes it all out on the innocent child. There is no evidence of anything like this as of now, but I guarantee you that every medicine cabinet, Pyxis, and delivery system in that entire hospital system is being thoroughly investigated down to the lot numbers. These stories always involve sticky fingers on the part of the perpetrators.

      In case you have not noticed, this week has seen a flurry of health care workers going on social media, and announcing all kinds of unhinged statements, threats, bullying, and crazy behavior directed at MAGA patients, ICE, local law enforcement, etc. I have seen some of these – and to say they are unhinged is a vast understatement. There is no universe in which this is appropriate in any kind of way. It is perfectly acceptable to make ones voice heard to protest. We are in a whole other world when we are suborning murder in real time.

      Of course, this Melinda one was so over the top that the medical group on this site immediately thought it was AI. That is a whole other problem in our world today. But within hours I knew it was not. I also know that in every case of the other videos I have seen this week, the employer and/or the licensing boards have already taken action. These are not fake.

      What has happened to my profession that this kind of thing is allowed? What would cause a young person to take their entire life’s work and throw it down the drain? I have made it crystal clear to my medical colleagues, to my old professors, and multiple cases in medical boards that I am seeing a very alarming rise in the young in my profession of just absolute callous disregard, of refusal to live up to their oaths, of absolute racial or creed discrimination, of absolutely egregious behavior like this. It is palpable. They refuse to even address Jewish people as patients, some of them refuse to see men, some of them refuse to see white people, on and on and on. So many times I hear all kinds of vicious comments under the breath. I am at most tangentially involved. To contemplate that this behavior is not being addressed by their professors back home is so very concerning to me. Part of my job is to train young people to have a successful career. This kind of behavior is not going to be consistent with that goal. I in no way think this behavior is widespread. What is widespread however, is the underlying tolerance of it – and not nipping it in the bud.

      Every person no matter their creed, race, religion, etc. deserves a physician to be their advocate. In my wildest dreams, I would never have thought this kind of behavior would be present at the end of my career, much less being tolerated. The same young people who were laughing and chortling at the unvaccinated as they were suffocating to death are the same ones in these videos. Never ever forget that medical ethicists at our leading medical schools got on TV and did not strike this behavior down. Instead, they seemed to almost support it. The public deserves so much better than this from my profession.

      When I think of my father, and my old professors of medicine who taught me all I know, I weep. They would all be so ashamed.

      1. mrsyk

        Thank you for taking the time. I wholly agree.
        I’ll point at 94K likes and speculate that this post has the endorsement of X (I misattributed to TikTok above). Sadly, Team brown-shirts will point at this while defending the goons with guns in the street.
        The specter spiraling violence is in the room, waiting for a nod.
        Stay safe.

      2. flora

        It’s my understanding that some good med colleges now do not require graduating med students to take the Hippocratic Oath. They are allowed to write their own personal oath, or the class as a whole is allowed to write the an oath. The new oath idea all sounds very… optional, temporary, and subject to change. School A students take a different oath than school B students. Thus putting future docs on different obligation understands from the beginning. What could go wrong?

        1. flora

          adding: there are groups paying people to make certain kinds of comments on social media to influence readers’ opinions. It’s known as Dark Money influence on the web.

        2. Rabid groundhog

          The original, authentic “Oath of Hippocrates” has been absolutely verboten since the 1960’s.
          If understood correctly it forbids physicians from commiting abortion or providing birth control, so after Roe v Wade it obviously had to go. It also implicitly normalizes both slavery and homosexual behavior and is after all an oath to a pagan god, so plenty of people could find something to object to.

          Enter some nobody by the name of Lasagna(I kid you not) who cooked up some bastardized oath of Lasagna that has been allowed to masquerade as THE “Hippocratic Oath” since before almost any physician still in practice recited it.

          Your point is spot on, but convienient, meaningless oaths have been ongoing for a long time.

      3. pjay

        I do not condone such language; as I said above (posted before I read this comment), it is extremely counter-productive. Of course if I wanted to play the whataboutism game, I could easily find innumerable equally sociopathic statements from right-wing influencers and MAGA identifiers – which doesn’t make it right. I could also suggest watching the videos now available that clearly show ICE (or Border Control) agents throwing a man trying to protect a woman protester onto his hands and knees and executing him in cold blood. Without condoning, I can understand how people, especially idealistic young people, might see violent resistance as justified against such thugs. Of course all the damage done that you mention is real. And not even all ICE agents are fascistic thugs deserving of a horrible death; some of the more experienced have been quite critical of the actions of these individuals.

        I am very concerned about these events for all the reasons discussed here daily. But those who think this a uniquely chaotic time with regard to state-sponsored violence, political polarization, or advocacy of violent resistance must have forgotten the 1960s. I remember it well, though I was too young to have been a direct participant. Back then there was certainly a segment of the “resistance” who felt a violent response against state-sponsored violence and repression was justified.In my view have not yet approached the degree of violence, or violent rhetoric, of that era. I don’t even think we have reached its degree of political polarization. But as you rightly point out, we didn’t have social media then.

        1. IM Doc

          I am certainly not a big fan of what is going on the right. But I am not of the right. I have little or no control over anything on the right. When my side is screwing things up beyond recognition I feel it is imperative to do what I can to get things back on the right track. And we are screwing things up – and giving the other side all kinds of ammunition. It is very difficult for the twitter addicts, and those in the blue bubbles to understand just how bad the Dem Party and the Left is viewed out here in the hinterlands. I know these videos do not represent the views of the majority of people on the left. But the excusing, tolerating, cries of “whataboutism” etc only damage any efforts to get people to listen. Unless and until there are those on the left stating to their own side – THIS IS BULL SHIT STOP IT RIGHT NOW, no excuses given, we are stuck in a loop of doom.

          I was not a direct participant either. Unless you count the numerous times I went to the jail with an older neighbor or other adults to bail out my those who had been arrested. Or the couple of times that one of these people had physical harm – I distinctly remember the broken nose. Their attitude was – “you break my nose, I will turn to you the other side of my face – have fun. You are the one who looks not so good in the eyes of the world.” The style of protest that was happening back then – the MLK version – was distinctly different than what we are seeing now. It is hard for me to tell which issues were worse – theirs or ours. After all, my elders then were protesting the hundreds of thousands being sent to the meat grinder and the hundreds of thousands of body bags coming home. They were protesting the history of absolute racial issues that the country had tolerated for far too long. The goal for their protest was for it to be peaceful and ever-growing. It was meant to shine the light on the other side’s moral bankruptcy. It was meant to slowly but surely show the world that what was happening was not OK – but part of that was NOT TO BE “NOT OK” YOURSELF. The protests back then were not done to show the world your own moral bankruptcy. I spent a large amount of my life talking to my own elders, patients and so many of their friends who were involved. They all knew that if they were confronted by the law, they would be suffering the consequences. I have heard over and over again when I have talked to these protestors of long ago the basic thought “do what you need to do – just do not do anything to get yourself killed”. The ones I knew and the vast majority of what I see happened in that era realized that being arrested, etc was part of the process and they were just not going to resist it. It was part of the process. I can assure you that my elders, patients and all of their friends would really not recognize what is going on today. But they did indeed suffer consequences in their lives. I have numerous acquaintances in my life who are still around from those days – and I for the most part am not hearing glowing positivity about what is going on today.

          It is so hard for me to contemplate the maelstrom of what is going on today from both sides and not just be sick unto death – especially thinking about all those who managed to do this and to get something done.

            1. pjay

              Since IM Doc’s concerns focus on the problematic behavior of Democrats, I feel I am forced to respond. John Lewis was a longtime hero of mine. But unfortunately I will now always remember him for his last significant political act: using this past reputation to stab Bernie Sanders in the back to help former Goldwater Girl Hillary Clinton gain the 2016 Democratic nomination. For me that is an even more symbolic example of the devolution of the Democratic Party than the intolerance of “woke” liberals. Both examples, and many others, help explain why we are discussing the evils of Trump today.

              1. flora

                I know. I had the same response to that what I can only call a betrayal not just of Bernie’s voters but of all his good and brave early work.

              2. IM Doc

                I would like to say a thing or two. And sorry about the length…..I have been a physician for decades. I have seen up close and personal what encounters with police can do to people. It horrifies me in a big way. I am personally still trying to weigh in my mind the horrors I saw inflicted upon people by ICE and other agencies in the Obama administration. I saw no one killed – but I did see people beaten up in a big way – and I saw kids separated from parents multiple times right in the ER. I did all I could back then to get people’s attention and was told to sit down and shut up. I am really trying to reconcile why there is such a violent reaction now when this has been going on for so long and no one cared.

                It seems to me that in the modern world, there are two overarching goals for any protest…..

                1) To completely tear down your opponents system in every way. To disrupt to the point of destruction. This would be done with the realization that absolute chaos would be released. Once a system goes down, it would become a “victor goes the spoils” situation.

                2) To do everything possible to make meaningful change in the system but to not completely destroy it. To realize that there are huge flaws in the system but overall the system is worth saving. There would also be the realization that this method would be rather arduous. It will be a war in the sense that there will be battles won and battles lost. But overall, the system would not be collapsed but would be fundamentally altered going forward. There is an acknowledgement that this may require sacrifice – but it will be for the greater good. Individual sacrifices in this kind of protest would tend to draw the attention of everyone else.

                I have not given up on our system to the point that I want to have released upon it total chaos. I have kids, and neighbors, and all kinds of people I care about that will still be here years from now. I vote for #2.

                And this is where I think it is important to think about the fact that almost every single 1960s protestor that I know is really not OK with how things are going right now. The majority of them feel we are opting for #1 and that is most certainly not how they managed their protests all those years ago.

                Let’s take a look at the last 2 big incidents – and I would like to share with you what I have heard from 1960s protestors the past few weeks about this entire situation.

                1) The Melinda nurse situation. This young woman has sacrificed her life and her videos make it unquestioned that she is a protestor. She is urging people to harm others that are on the other side. She has given up her career, her livelihood and likely ever being employed again ( I seriously doubt she can work at Starbucks after that performance). So many protestors in the 1960s lost their lives too. But there is a huge difference. The Kent State kids got the attention of the entire country. It was a shock. They were there protesting and were killed. This young woman in giving up her career, has suborned the commission of at least 2 felonies that I can determine in the video. She is guilty of a crime. She has made herself look bad and at the same time supplied the opponents with all kinds of ammunition. The sacrifice of her life has not only been done for nothing – the behavior has aided the other side.

                2) The Pretti situation in Minneapolis. This is the one that profoundly disturbs every 1960s age protestor I have talked to. When MLK was around, and people threatened him, maligned him, insulted him, spit on him…….he did not lash out. He humbled himself, he got on his knees and he started PRAYING FOR THEM. It is quite simply one of the hardest things ever for a human being to do. But it is so much more effective. “You wanna hit me, shoot me, spray me, go for it buddy, I am praying for you.” And when they did retaliate those so many times to others, it was profoundly decisive in the mind of the country about who was actually in the right.

                As much as I despise what happened to this young man, his sacrifice has done no such thing. He decided to go to this protest with a Sig Sauer P320 – a semi-automatic weapon and 2 magazines. He has the RIGHT to do that. But with rights always come responsibility. When you carry a weapon like that into any situation in your life, you have the reponsibility to make sure things are OK if the situation goes sideways. You see, I also own a Sig Sauer P320. My family and I live in a part of the country where if we are out on a hike big animals can say Hi at any time. We all know how to defuse situations with big animals, but you just have to have insurance. I have trained with that weapon relentlessly because I have such respect for its power. Thankfully, I have never ever had to come close to using it. But I know what it is capable of – and I would never ever dream of taking it into an already fraught protest situation in an urban area. My family was pulled over a few years ago when I had it with me. The African American officer came up to the car. We had already lowered the windows – and I had instructed everyone in the car to raise their hands in the air. I calmly told the officer that I was armed, and where the weapon was and where the magazines were. And we proceeded from there without incident. Again, I have a responsibility to everyone around me when I am armed. When all was done, the officer looked at my kids and said your Dad has done the right thing here today – never forget how to handle this. I will ask anyone – would MLK show up to a protest armed with a semi-automatic weapon? I think we all know the answer. And they were facing in his day officers of the law who were just as out of control as what we have here today………..But there is yet another problem. There is no doubt that young man was literally executed. It makes me ill to think about. But as is so often in our social media culture – we are making huge assessments based on video clips. We have no idea what had gone on before. So often in our world today, with all kinds of things, critical pieces of evidence come to light after we have already beaten each other up for days about incidents. So, imagine my surprise, in my blue area, with my blue very liberal high school students this PM when one of them started the day off – “Did you see this video?” This is from a news channel that the rest of the internet assures me is for Gen Z – it is liberal leaning – and is helmed by former reporters from the BBC and NYT. The kid looked at me and said – “that is not really how you should behave at a protest is it?” My heart sank when I saw this – because I knew right then that this was going to detonate. Just as MLK knew and Gandhi knew – you do not go into a protest armed with a semi-automatic weapon ( even though you have the right to have it) and act like this – and then show up a week later and expect everything to be OK….again – I am assuming this is not AI – this is on the news channel that Gen Z kids live for. But one never knows. It affirms a lesson I learned long ago – do not make judgements in life on the spur of the moment. There may be all kinds of things you do not know. I honestly did not know what to tell the kids this PM. Instead of our class work, we had a long talk about the history of their country. Is the video even real? Make no suppositions – we now have that added layer of complexity in the moral decision-making. Is it appropriate for anyone to be acting like this who is armed ( the man is clearly armed) with overwrought law enforcement people? Is it appropriate to behave like this as a protestor? What results are you trying to achieve? While this kind of behavior may win the battle……is it going to win the war? How will law enforcement behave towards you if you act like this one week and then show up a week later armed with an automatic weapon? What is the rule of law?

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRWR13BAIEs

                Again, I am horrified to the core of my being about what is going on. But I also have grave concerns how it is being handled by the opposition. But one thing is for sure, this country could really use a MLK figure right now – I see that person nowhere – and that is tragic.

                1. anahuna

                  Dear IM Doc, I notice tha in your general condemnation, you seem to include Pritti when you allude to “this kind of behavior”. But how did he behave. Yes, he had a gun. Did he take it out, brandish it, threaten anyone with it? Threaten anyone with violence of any kind? I presume you know that he did none of those things.So possession of the gun is enough to discredit hom in your eyes and the eyes of those you speak for.

                  I can’t help wondering: were you as quick to condemn Karl Rittenhouse, who not only threatened, but killed outright

                  1. IM Doc

                    I find the most interesting thing of the past 2 weeks is the extreme hypocrisy of both sides. It has been amazingly illuminating. It would even be entertaining if it were not for the extreme tragedy we are dealing with.

                    On one side we have the 2nd Amendment crowd – the “Don’t Tread on Me” crowd up to and including POTUS saying all the time “Why, how dare he bring a gun into a protest…..” – Please read what I said above – he has a right to carry that gun anywhere – but he also has a responsibility to know he has in his hand a weapon that could take out 2 dozen people in seconds. The first rule of training is when you have a weapon like that on your person – you must absolutely know the consequences of what occurs if things go sideways and be able to act accordingly. If you are not tempered to do that – do not bring the weapon. Again – you have the right to do so – but are you ready for the responsibility? –

                    2) On the other side – we have those who have been screaming as long as I have been alive that no one should be allowed to have a weapon like this – that they are the cause of everything evil in our society – that things can get out of control very rapidly just like this situation. And yet all they can say – “Yeah he had a gun – but he did not brandish it”……I seriously can tell by reading some of the comments on social media this week that so many of these people do not even have the slightest comprehension of what “brandish” even means.

                    Again, very illuminating. Very disquieting. I do not know what else to say. Other than I have spent my entire life watching bodies brought into the ER blown apart by these things. And this is largely because people view these things as jewelry. They completely ignore the immense power they have. Again, what would MLK do?

                    1. flora

                      Thanks, IMDoc.
                      One largely unrecognized danger of carrying a gun in a protest where encounters with law enforcement could happen is the effect it might have on the person carrying. They may act bolder in a tense situation than they otherwise would, or should. The useful sense of caution may be dulled. That is dangerous in itself. /imo

                    1. IM Doc

                      Please read my above statement about my experience with law enforcement while armed with the same gun as this gentleman had. I will reiterate again. For better or worse, we live in a country where concealed weapons are allowed. He has every right to have the gun. But with rights come responsibilities. Please compare the behavior that I did and what I made my family do when we had an encounter with law enforcement. And then compare it to this gentleman and his behavior. Looking at this video, it appears he had priors. Looking at the scene in this wider view of the video – it is hard to tell if this is a protest or an incipient riot. We have absolutely no idea what happened in the minutes leading up to this. I am also of the opinion from the other video that the law enforcement officers were ENTIRELY inappropriate in that encounter. Again, we do not have the video of the minutes leading up to the problem. But how they behaved is as reckless as can be. Brutes? Thugs? Horribly trained? Scared? Overworked? Investigation please. Unfortunately, I have worked for decades in ERs where profoundly violent peolpe are brought and have seen what police have to go through. No excuses, but it is quite intense. I could never do that job. Nevertheless, it is my opinion that although you may have the right to conceal a firearm, this is absolutely not any kind of situation where it would be responsible to do so. The responsible thing to do if you are concealing in this situation would be to as calmly as possible walk away. If approached by law enforcement, hold your hands up high and calmly tell them that you are armed and where is the weapon. If they need to take you to jail, let them take you to jail. You will be safe there until everything is straightened out. I do not know what else to say. From a public service standpoint, far far too many times in my life I have had bodies rolled into the ER with 15 shots through them all because someone was acting a fool with a gun in an inappropriate situation and not exiting an unstable situation immediately. This kind of scene is absolutely NOT appropriate for a concealed semi-automatic weapon. What I am saying is literally chapter and verse from every gun safety class I have ever taken. My soul-felt question is did this gentleman take a gun safety class? If not, why did he feel it appropriate to walk into that situation with a gun that can take out 20 people in 10 seconds? What was he trying to do?

                2. ilsm

                  Thank you IMDoc.

                  If MLK were Catholic I think he would be Saint. He was among the best examples in my recall of what being a follower of Christ should be!

                  As to the Pretti manslaughter, I would not carry to a protest. But I am also a nonviolent Christian respecting Christ, MLK and Gandhi!

                  I was not always. My guns are long barrel, one a deer rifle of high power. I have knives, and I have a cane. The cane is as violent as i would get and only for domicile protection. Outside my home I go passive!

                  That said, my observation of Good and Pretti is we may have officers that panic, are poorly trained, ill-motivated and having no interest in law or morality. The extent of this condition in ICE/BP/HHS is worrisome, we just don’t know.

                  In my early adulthood I was a USAF officer. One assignment was a remote AF Station in CONUS. I was second ranking officer. One afternoon I was walking the station with the security forces NCO. He was armed GI revolver in holster. As we approached one of the barracks we saw an airman resident carrying a rifle toward the barracks. That was explicitly against regulations. Guns if owned by airmen in barracks were stored in the security office arms safe.

                  We calmly approached the airman and easily talked him out of the weapon…..

                  We were in our mid-twenties and the incident was between the three of us.

                  I wish the two groups of ICE/BP in the headlines were better trained, supervised and properly motivated.

                  Thanks Doc!

                3. johnnyme

                  For everyone in this thread, I would advise caution in characterizing him as a protester and comparing his behavior as a protester with those protesters of 60 years ago.

                  There was no protest taking place at 26th and Nicollet when he was murdered — just one of the countless ICE/CBP assaults that have been going on non-stop here. The protest you saw on television started after he was murdered.

                  I have not seen any discussion about what exactly he was doing on 26th and Nicollet that morning. Was he out standing watch (which is a common sight on the arterial streets) or was he simply on the way to pick up some doughnuts at Glam Doll (which are very good, by the way), saw what was going down and stepped up, as many of my fellow angry Minnesotans have done?

                  Based on what we’ve learned about him, either explanation is entirely plausible and I think it is unfair to come to any conclusions without better information.

                  1. Acacia

                    Was he out standing watch (which is a common sight on the arterial streets) or was he simply on the way to pick up some doughnuts at Glam Doll (which are very good, by the way), saw what was going down and stepped up, as many of my fellow angry Minnesotans have done?

                    Well, I have not studied this event in depth, but if you look at the video of the previous encounter that IM Doc has brought to our attention, and then look at the alternate angle in the clip to which I linked above, you will see a loose group of people milling around, and then at 16:48, the individual said to be Pretti comes running up to the intersection and directly confronting the ICE goons before spitting on their vehicle and then kicking out the taillight.

                    I think we can say that he was neither out standing watch, nor was he just on the way to pick up some donuts.

                    There were quite a few cameras there, so hopefully more video will surface and we can try to sort out what we are actually seeing here.

                    1. johnnyme

                      Your video is interesting but it was not filmed on the morning of January 24 and was not filmed at 26th and Nicollet (you can see Park avenue in the street sign) and unless Alex admitted, prior to his death, that this indeed was him being filmed, I don’t see how this can be used to come to any conclusions about why he was present at 26th and Nicollet and what he was doing there the morning he was murdered.

      4. redleg

        In a time when Federal paramilitaries are executing, beating, and disappearing people with impunity, I’m surprised that anyone is surprised by this. The most obvious barometer of where the US attitude on taking extreme extrajudicial action was the reaction to the assassination of the United Health CEO.
        The easiest way to reverse this problem is to restore the rights of citizens and punish the cops/executives causing the problem. Lawlessness eventually becomes a two-way street and, since this situation has no end in sight, i fully expect to see this person’s advice be deployed to more applause than is safe.

    4. Kouros

      That post went very well with de Long’s posting on Thucydides and Corcyria…

      We are definitely, as a species much more emotional than rational, with ration always seeming to serve emotions…

  6. AG

    re: Ukraine War casualty numbers

    When inconvenient numbers from Ukraine are leaked/made public after a hack/being estimated indirectly (via phone numbers or cemetary satellite images or dating figures) – they are being ignored.

    Now US “think tank” CSIS has published a “study” and it´s of course at once picked up and discussed.

    Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine
    Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power

    January 27, 2026
    https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine

    German TELEPOLIS blog which has been positioning itself between oppositional media and those parroting establishment views has a brief piece onf this study and is trying to voice doubts.

    But as CSIS is using fake numbers the German article´s skepticism in the light of what really is going on at the front and what it means for the war, for “peace” talks, for Europe at large and the world itself – is not really serious or adequate.

    machine-translation

    Ukraine War: How reliable are the new casualty figures?
    https://archive.is/6U8rD

    They do point out that numbers provided by Kiev are not 100% trustworthy (really?!)
    However their scrutiy goes only so far:

    “(…)
    A closer look reveals an asymmetry in the data collection, which is relevant for readers critical of sources:
    For the Russian side, a robust database exists thanks to the Mediazona project and the BBC Russian Service. Journalists there count confirmed deaths by name – through obituaries, cemetery photos, and social media posts. This “hard” lower limit is then extrapolated using multipliers.
    (…)”.

    Multipliers? What multipliers? What are they talking about? They just put this in. Without any further explanation.

    The fact that a formerly 10:1 ratio in artillery shells and by now much more obviously will result in correspondingly higher deaths among AFU has been completely forgotten.

    Also I have not seen a single item in German media quoting the numbers provided by the RU MoD.
    Not once.

    I am now waiting for German antiwar party to use this embarrassing CSIS-report, sigh. Not understanding that by adopting the propaganda they are doing NATO´s job.

    How can you not go insane seeing all this?

    1. voislav

      It’s very simple to estimate the maximum potential number of Russian casualties. Russian Armed Forces started the war with ~900K personnel, they have since expanded to 1.55M. So that’s extra 650K. Russia has mobilized 300 K in year 1 and has been recruiting 300-400K a year since, so let’s say 300K, 350K, 400K, 400K over 4 year for a total of 1.65M.

      So the maximum number of losses from all causes (casualties, desertion, demobilization) is 1 million. Unlike Ukrainians, who are signed for the duration, Russians are signed on 1- or 2-year contracts and are routinely demobilized, so there is probably several hundred thousand demobilized troops in Russia so far. So realistically, we are looking at 150K killed and 450K wounded (typical 3-1 ratio) for a total of 600K casualties over the course of the whole war, in line with reliable reporting from sources like Mediazona.

      1. AG

        Losses to me are always forces which are lost and cannot be recovered. Either KIA or MIA or maimed. To add demobilized among losses makes no sense to me. To my understanding RUs are rotating for the very reason to prolong the viability of their available soldiers. Instead of wearing them out until not recoverable any more (a method German Luftwaffe was applying in WWII which is why e.g. their pilots in average had more so-called aces until they would eventually die in combat instead of using more pilots with fewer dogfight victories.)

        When exactly did the RU numbers reach 900k? Can´t find it, sorry. We know they did start out with 90k-120k vs. by April according to Zelensky´s public statement 750k AFU.

        Or more exact via Jacques Baud´s numbers:

        „(…)
        In May 2022, with the mobilization of Ukraine, 700,000 troops faced the 100,000 to 190,000 troops of the Russian coalition (Russia, DPR and LPR). This means a 3-4:1 ratio in favor of Ukraine during phase 1 of the operation.
        (…)“

        So one has to take into account the different size and continuous increase of forces on both sides during the conflict to assess the effectiveness and the applicable kill ratios of weapons.

        The 1:3 ratio is merely an average standad applied for the old-style of conducting an offensive.

        Baud on this:
        „(…)
        Our TV strategists keep repeating that the rules of military art call for a superiority of 3 to 1 to be successful in an attack. In fact, this is only a planning value, valid for a frontal attack. An examination of the great battles of history shows that in 57% of cases, the attacker achieved victory despite a ratio that was unfavorable to him. The explanation for this apparent contradiction lies in the art of operations: it is maneuver and the succession of actions within an operation that can compensate for an unfavorable ratio. The maneuver must prevent the adversary from regrouping in order to organize his defense. This is what the Ukrainians failed to do in 2022, as they no longer had any maneuvering capability.
        (…)“

        (quotes from “THE RUSSIAN ART OF WAR”)

        Besides, the rules to such a kind of offensive today have fundamentally changed. You can´t just go out on and attack any more. You are spotted and within 20 minutes wiped out. Which is one reason why the SMO is not tied to a time window but instead to minimizing RU losses.

        Also US military models as most likely used by US think tanks are operating with US style air dominance which is just not the case here.

        So any standard variables might not be appropriate (any more ) under the new conditions of a large war. Which is the overarching issue with all the military discussions in the West.

        They are applying non-realistic schemes. And when those schemes fail even in simulations (like against China) they rewrite the rules, repeat the simulation until they win. That´s not serious. And the CSIS environment is breathing and operating in this bubble of complete fraud I have the impression.

        p.s. I just cannot reach https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation.htm
        Maybe someone has the latest tally.

        – I seem to have some Internet issues which causes trouble when posting – editing is a problem –

        1. Aurelien

          The so-called “3 to 1” ratio was just a rule of thumb developed before 1914 by the Prussians in their Kriegspiel operational level war-games. Because the focus was on operational manoeuvring, they did not try to play the outcome of individual battles. It was assumed for simplicity that if you could bring your enemy to battle with that kind of advantage, you would win.

          1. Polar Socialist

            When it comes to captain von Reisswitz’ Kriegsspiel from 1824, it was an actual rule.

            The game tried to make officers beware of hand-to-hand combat as it was – in the real battlefield – an uncontrollable and very uncertain event likely to render the unit unavailable for the rest of the battle regardless of the outcome. This was reflected in the way the Umpire used charts and dices to decide the victor almost purely by chance.

            In order to prevent the players taking advantage of this (by sacrificing small units hoping miraculous success), there was a rule that a unit facing 3 times or more stronger unit in a hand-to-hand combat would automatically flee.

            1. AG

              would it make sense to assume that with the introduction of machine guns these numbers changed whatever they were at the end of the century?

              I thought this 3:1 was already used early 19th cent.

              p.s. related:

              Garland Nixon, Martyanov, Ritter – there is some mention of the current changes on the battlefield (drone warfare).

              Martyanov briefly hints at the reason why the US in the 19th century “went ballistic” with turning into a naval power alluding to a – if I understood correctly – “Chilean” gun that would outmatch other guns with 20 miles range???

              54 min.
              https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2026/01/later-today_27.html

              Maybe someone knows this stuff…

      2. Alice X

        The numbers I recall from Feb 2022 were that the Russians invaded with ca 200k against the Ukraine’s 600k. A one to three disadvantage.

    2. The Rev Kev

      Meanwhile, Zelensky has had a brilliant idea-

      ‘The Ukrainian military should focus on inflicting the highest possible casualties on Russia, Vladimir Zelensky has said, naming a figure of 50,000 Russian losses per month as an “optimal level” that troops should target.

      Speaking at an event dedicated to an assessment of Ukrainian drone units’ effectiveness, Zelensky said that “when it comes to 50,000 Russian losses per month, this is the optimal level,” calling it “the task of the Ministry of Defense… the task of our army, all… the security forces of Ukraine to guarantee exactly such a level of Russian losses.”’

      https://www.rt.com/russia/631617-zelensky-military-kill-russians/

      Yep, that should work a treat.

      1. Ignacio

        Per Mediazona the last monthly count was 7500 Russians KIA. If we estimate 22.500 wounded using voislav´s rule of thumb (3X) total casualties were 30.000 (which looks comparatively high with previous numbers). The Ukrainian army has to improve a lot. It is a pity that Zelensky did not specify what is the “optimal level” of Ukrainian casualties. Probably because this is what matters the least to him and his supporters.

        1. scott s.

          I’m certainly no expert, but I think you need to be careful citing things like “22,500 wounded” in the context of casualties. Since my father-in-law served in a medical battalion (specifically a company that provided med/surg support to an infantry regiment) I’ve done some reading of Army Medical reports from WWII. US doctrine, which I assume is typical, attempts to triage care at various levels with ultimate transport out of theater if required. But only a fraction of casualties (don’t know the %) are due to combat wounding. Much of the patient load is due to disease or other non-combat conditions (such as “trench-foot”). Venereal disease was also a non-trivial factor. How many casualties are evacuated from theater compared to returned to their units?

        2. Polar Socialist

          There are in the literature general rules based on observations of about a century of warfare or so. Of the wounded about 1/3 returns to unit within 72 hours, 1/3 within a month and 1/3 is “unrecoverable” casualty.

          That said, the ratio of killed to wounded depends on too many factors for there to be a generic rule of any kind. In the Afghanistan war, when USA had the firepower to disengage at will and capability to bring casualties into the operating room within 60 minutes, only one in ten was lost. In WW2 one in three was lost, usually by hemorrhaging before being treated.

          According to Belousov 97% of the Russian wounded eventually return to duty. It doesn’t say much about the unrecoverable vs recoverable losses, but it’s much better than 66% of the “general rule”.

    3. JohnA

      The BBC has literally zero credibility as an objective news source these days. Perhaps it never really did. But the propaganda has become so blatant, even normally non critical news consumers can smell a hint of rat, if not the actual stinking container ship load of rat carcasses.

  7. johnnyme

    Ecuador says ICE agent tried to enter consulate in Minneapolis

    MINNEAPOLIS, Jan 27 (Reuters) – A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent tried to get into Ecuador’s consulate in Minneapolis on Tuesday but was prevented from entering the premises by consulate staffers, the country’s Foreign Ministry said.

    “I saw the officers going after two people in the street, and then those people went into the consulate and the officers tried to go in after them,” said one woman, who asked not to be named, citing a fear of retribution by the federal government.

    The agents “weren’t able to enter the consulate, from what I could see,” she said.

    I’m curious to know what convinced them to back off.

    1. flora

      Legal status of consulates. From a longer article linked.

      “Legal Status of Consular Premises

      Consular premises are not considered “foreign soil” or extraterritorial in the same manner as diplomatic missions. Instead, the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations (1963) grants them “inviolability.” This inviolability means that host state authorities generally cannot enter consular premises without the consent of the head of the consular post or the head of the sending state’s diplomatic mission. Consular archives and documents are also inviolable. Despite these protections, the territory remains under host state sovereignty, and its laws generally apply within the consular premises.”

      https://legalclarity.org/is-a-consulate-considered-foreign-soil/

      The last thing ICE needs now is video of them invading a foreign consulate being broadcast on the nightly news. /my 2 cents.

      1. johnnyme

        I agree but they’ve shown absolutely no regard for laws or norms of any kind before now which has me curious as to why things unfolded the way they did.

  8. Anonymous

    Re: Just How High Can Silver Really Go?

    Yves mentions people selling their silver flatware and candleholders for melt value during the last run-up in silver prices.

    In 2024, post that earlier inflation and prior to the current one in the silver market, I was responsible for disposing of a relative’s household goods when the individual moved into nursing care. I learned very quickly (as I believe Yves did when she vacated her NYC apt.) that very few if any antiques retain any value, and that goes double for any household goods that tarnish, and therefore must be polished and carefully stored between uses.

    All “downsizing specialists” and estate sale managers insisted that sterling silver items be sold for melt value — and this was 18 months ago, when silver prices were low.

    Nobody wants anything old anymore. In fact, since “possessions” are entirely transitory, they may last for only a few uses, or a few months, before being landfilled to make room for the latest piece of junk from Wayfair, TEMU or Best Buy. The disposable society: a disaster in every respect.

    I have a sterling flatware service for 12 in Gorham’s Versailles pattern that was a wedding gift to my great aunt in 1896. It includes standard items for the time: 12 cream soup spoons AND 12 bouillon spoons. These were separate dinner courses and so naturally required their own implements. It would make sense to sell the whole lot for its melt value now, but I just can’t.

    1. Wukchumni

      A good amount of numismatic value in coins has been erased, take 5 piece US proof sets from 1955 to 1964 that contain about 6/10’s of an ounce of silver, a 1955 used to be worth $50, while a 1960-64 proof set was worth around $10.

      Well, they all have $65 worth of silver in content now~

      Gold has been even more so, when I retired 20 years ago a $20 St Gaudens gold coin graded MS 65 by PCGS or NGC which contained just under an ounce in content was worth $2500 when gold was $400 an ounce, they’re worth the melt value now of $5150, crazy that.

      1. Milton

        Just got into my old coin collection and counted around $19 in Silver coins. Melt value today is over $1600. I imagine a lot of common coins, today, will become rare in the near future.

    2. Joe Renter

      I was a sucker for silver when the Hunt brothers did their market manipulation in the early 80’s.
      Fast forward my Mother gifted me 40 silver eagles a few years back. I am now ahead of the game.
      Crazy times. Can we get a new economic system please. You know one that fair to all. Silly me.

    3. Stephanie

      The “Millenial Inheritance Is Just Emptional Baggage: https://youtu.be/nvK8FIKoGM4

      Title is click-baity but video discusses the real problem of our emotional relationship to our stuff. Frequently mentioned in the comments: the size of available/affordable housing doesn’t allow many currently middle-aged people to keep the large furniture they inherited or store anything but necessities. This was a problem for me after my father’s death, and I still occasionally grapple with guilt over the fact that I gave away items my mother cherished that I simply had nowhere to put.

  9. AG

    re: Germany sanctions vs. free speech

    important (especially as it will be ignored by German MSM)

    Sanction regime getting worse. I guess the term “chilling effect” is in place here. Denunciation is now an established element of the legal framework organizing everyday life.

    German OVERTON-MAGAZIN

    machine-translation

    Reichsgericht 2.0: Anyone who helps is committing a crime.
    https://archive.is/dtt2i

    “(…)
    With the implementation of the new EU regulations, Germany is tightening EU sanctions law. What was previously considered an administrative offense will now be a criminal offense – punishable by high prison sentences and fines, and a far-reaching extension of obligations to the entire environment of sanctioned individuals.

    With the law passed on January 15, 2026, to adapt criminal offenses and sanctions for violations of restrictive measures of the European Union, Germany has fundamentally tightened its sanctions law – and aligned it with Brussels’ requirements. Businesses are particularly affected. But the law also has implications for sanctioned individuals, as their economic, professional, and personal freedoms are now considerably restricted.
    (…)
    Violations of EU sanctions can now be classified as criminal offenses in almost all relevant situations. This applies not only to classic trade or export bans, but also to financial services, investments, consulting services, and even the failure to report frozen assets. Companies face fines of up to €40 million, while individuals face prison sentences of up to ten years in particularly serious cases.
    (…)
    A key element is the expansion of reporting obligations. Anyone who, in the course of their professional activities – for example, as a journalist, consultant, publisher, bank employee, or business partner – gains knowledge of the funds or economic resources of a sanctioned person must report this information to the authorities. Failure to report or late reporting can be a criminal offense.
    (…)”

    Scandal? What scandal? To use the old proverb – if it´s not in the paper, it´s not real.

  10. ciroc

    >Xi’s Military Meltdown

    Often overlooked is the fact that the leaders of major powers opposing the United States have limited options. Tolerating corruption weakens a nation and leads to its downfall. In order to strengthen its military, China must eradicate corruption within its most corrupt institution: the People’s Liberation Army. Xi’s “purges” of generals demonstrate his unwavering resolve to show no mercy, even to his allies. Reducing these actions to mere power struggles misses the fundamental point.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      The article mentions he is getting rid of older leaders and it occurred to me that maybe Xi looked at the elderly, sclerotic “leadership” in the US and decided he didn’t want China going down that route and did something about it because China’s political system allows him to.

      In the US we have techbros trying to take over everything, and those tasked with regulating them are so out of touch they think email is cutting edge. I could see why Xi would want to avoid that and bring in some younger leadership able to converse with the current tech business leaders in China and rein them in if necessary.

      That doesn’t explain why those currently being purged couldn’t have been quietly allowed to retire after being given a little nudge though…

      1. PlutoniumKun

        China generally enforces retirement on older leaders. Zhang Youxia was an exception – Xi specifically asked him to stay on longer as previous clear outs had removed much of the most experienced higher levels in the military. The two go back a long way – their fathers were comrades. As you say, his removal was brutal and very public, this was far more than just getting rid of some dead weight.

        There is now a real problem at the higher levels of China’s military with a lack of experienced, seasoned leaders. Xi has done several culls of mid to high level officers, and there have always been questions about the quality of senior officers, as loyalty to the party has always been seen as more important than competence (in contrast, for example, to Vietnam, where the military has always had a less subservient role to the Party). It’s possible of course that he is bringing forward a new, highly competent and non-corrupt cohort of officers, but if there is any convincing evidence of this I’ve not seen it.

        1. ilsm

          “There is now a real problem at the higher levels of China’s military with a lack of experienced, seasoned leaders.”

          You could say that about the US’ Depts of war and Navy in late 1941.

          Or in 1861 and the troubles Lincoln had finding proficient military leaders.

          Looking at how ICE works if you extrapolate to the pentagon who cannot pass an audit?

          A purge here and there.

          Marshall and Ike fired a lot of officers!

  11. mrsyk

    PRESS RELEASE: It is 85 seconds to midnight, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’.
    AI is mentioned (emphasis mine),

    The Doomsday Clock time is annually determined by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board (SASB) in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes eight Nobel Laureates. Major factors in 2026 included growing nuclear weapons threats, disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), multiple biological security concerns, and the continuing climate crisis. The Clock’s time changed most recently in January 2025, when the Doomsday Clock was set at 89 seconds to midnight.

  12. Christopher Mann

    Re: EU-India trade deal

    IT is cooked as a profession. If you know, you know. Anyone in healthcare knows that the quality of Indian healthcare workers varies wildly. I had a relative catch a nurse looking up how to insert a catheter on YouTube. Also impossible to verify agency nurses ID. Student visas will be unlimited. I recently interviewed a semi-literate Indian for a content creation role. ALL certs were fake and then he told me Indian English is the “greatest English in world” and that Irish people “very bad English”. I know for a fact that he will still find employment with an Indian-owned shop.

    The curse of Von de Leyen has struck again. Good luck out there, it will be tsunami of tshit if this deal goes through.

    1. Bugs

      Even internally at my evil multinational, no one takes anything listed in an Indian CV (I’m talking about lawyers) as truthful. You’ll see real howlers like long lists of high level experience in various arcane and unconnected areas of the law that are simply impossible to obtain based on the time scales of the career. But hey, if everyone in the country is in on the scam, just go with it until you’re at the upper levels of management in all the big companies, right? That said, there’s plenty of real talent in India and I see it all the time when working with colleagues or when I’m in India. Just not in the lawyers’ CVs I get!

  13. The Rev Kev

    ‘Science girl
    @sciencegirl
    A compilation of seals and sea lions being funny, playful, and effortlessly adorable’

    It may be that in the far distant future that you will have a sub-species of humans come about that will have gills in live in the seas and oceans. And if that ever happens, then I am pretty sure that seals will be their “dogs.”

    1. Mikel

      A taste of the juice:

      While the context Trump faces with China rising on the world stage has pushed the United States into a new paradigm, Varoufakis casts doubt on the idea that Trump’s colonialism is much different than that conducted within the liberal international world order. “Well, I don’t want to mythologize the world we’re exiting,” he says. “Because you see, this is what liberal centrists do, radical centrists. They say, everything was so good until this man [Trump] came and destroyed it. I’m sorry, it wasn’t good. You know…I grew up in a NATO country that was a fascist dictatorship. So when people say, NATO is democracy. No, I’m sorry. It’s not for me.”

  14. The Rev Kev

    ‘Volcaholic 🌋
    @volcaholic1
    The scale of this landslide is mind-blowing!
    About 1,500 people have been evacuated from Niscemi in Sicily after a landslide caused by heavy rain from Cyclone Harry tore through a hillside on the town’s edge.’

    This is crazy wild. They will have to abandon a large zone that parallels that cliff face and it could be a hundred meters or more deep meaning that tens of thousands of people are now homeless.

  15. Michael Fiorillo

    The Welsh article states unequivocally that each Tomahawk missile contains five hundred ounces of silver, while the article cited to support that statement makes no such claim. It makes me question what the author says about everything else, even though I see similar claims elsewhere online.

    We do seem to be experiencing a price reset with silver, for various reasons, but like everything else these days, it’s hard to separate fact and reality from wishful thinking, carnival barking and wheels-within-wheels manipulation. Be very careful.

    1. micaT

      31 pounds of silver, not a chance. Could be 500 grams.
      But mistakes like that usually make me discount the article in whole.

      1. scott s.

        Dunno. In my time there certainly was not any “secrecy” around silver content in Tomahawk. I don’t think anyone cared. Maybe at today’s prices they do?

  16. BlueMoose

    Could someone add some explanation regarding the link to Social Security and travel outside the US? I checked the linked article but it did not reveal (at least to me) what the problem/issue is. What should I be worried about? What should anyone be worried about? Is it related to people claiming a US address but living abroad?

    I have been living in Poland as a permanent resident and my wife (Polish) and I have not had any problems with our Social Security payments (direct deposit into a Polish Bank). The staff at the US Embassy in Warsaw have been nothing but helpful over the years.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I mentioned this to a friend who has colleagues who get SS in Europe and he said he heard the same thing.

      This is the brochure I found in a search but it seems out of date: https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10137.pdf

      This seems to be the issue:

      Under long-standing rules, SSI and Social Security recipients must self-report foreign travel that lasts 30 days or more. If you are a citizen, you may still be able to collect Social Security while residing abroad, but SSI is strictly limited to residents of the U.S. and certain U.S. territories

      https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-government-passes-surprising-tracking-170000003.html

      I never once had any “retire abroad” guide mention the reporting issue.

      If it is only reporting, that may not be so terrible, but I wonder if the intent is to kick retirees off the rolls for non-reporting and/or reporting at odds with border control records.

      1. OIFVet

        These rules seem to apply mostly to recipients who are not US citizens and who are not receiving SS retirement payments on their own work record, or who are on SSI or SSDI payments. Form the SSA website (https://www.ssa.gov/international/payments.html?tl=0%2C1):

        “1. Can I receive Social Security benefits if I am not a U.S. citizen and I live outside the United States?
        Generally, we cannot pay Retirement, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefits to noncitizens after their sixth calendar month outside the United States. However, you might qualify for an exception, which could allow you to receive benefits without visiting the United States. If an exception does not apply, you must be physically and lawfully present in the United States for a full calendar month to begin receiving benefits. If you leave the U.S., we will stop your benefits the month after the sixth calendar month in a row that you are outside the country. You can make visits to the United States for specific periods of time, depending on how long you’ve been outside, to continue receiving your benefits.”

        It also depends on which country they reside in. Here is a screening tool (no need to enter SS number) that helps figure out how your personal situation affects your payment: https://www.ssa.gov/international/payments_outsideUS.html

        I did check since my mother (a US citizen) resides abroad and receives retirement payments to her US bank, but everything I see points to the rule affecting non-citizen recipients.

        1. Timh

          This summary makes no distinction between citizen/not:
          https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/cfr20/416/416-1327.htm

          § 416.1327. Suspension due to absence from the United States.
          (a) Suspension effective date. A recipient is not eligible for SSI benefits if he is outside the United States for a full calendar month. For purposes of this paragraph—

          (1) United States means the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and the Northern Mariana Islands:

          (2) Day means a full 24-hour day; and

          (3) In determining whether a recipient has been outside the United States for a full calendar month, it must be established whether the recipient is outside the United States for 30 consecutive days or more. If yes, he or she will be treated as remaining outside the United States until he or she has returned to and remained in the United States for a period of 30 consecutive days. When a recipient has been outside the United States, the first period of 30 consecutive days of absence is counted beginning with the day after the day the recipient departs from the United States and ending with the day before the day on which he or she returns to the United States. When a recipient has returned to the United States, the second period of 30 consecutive days starts on the day the individual returned and ends on the 30th day of continuous presence in the United States. Benefits will be suspended effective with the first full calendar month in which a recipient is outside the United States.

          (b) Resumption of payments after absence from the United States. If benefits are otherwise payable they will be resumed—

          (1) Effective with the day following the 30th day of continuous presence in the United States after the recipient’s return if the absence was for 30 consecutive days or more.

          (2) Effective with the day the recipient returned to the United States, if the absence from the United States was for a full calendar month, but for less than 30 consecutive days (this can occur only for the calendar month of February).

          Example 1: Mike left the United States on March 1 and returned on April 1. Counting March 2 through March 31, he was outside the United States for 30 consecutive days; thus he is also deemed to be outside the United States for 30 additional consecutive days. Therefore, for April 1 through April 30, he is deemed to be outside the United States and not eligible for the calendar month of April. Payments start effective May 1.

          Example 2: Mary left the United States on April 15 and returned on July 1. Counting April 16 through June 30, she was actually outside the United States and not eligible for the calendar months of May and June. Since she was absent for more than 30 consecutive days, she is deemed to be outside the United States for 30 additional consecutive days. Therefore, for July 1 through July 30, she is deemed to be outside the United States and not eligible for payment until July 31.

          1. OIFVet

            This concerns SSI recipients, something that I did mention. As far as retirement benefits based on one’s own work record and paying into the system, those remain unaffected.

  17. ProNewerDeal

    Question for Yves/NC financial gurus: If the Limits to Growth scenario occurs, I wonder if an personal investing asset allocation (AA) with gold & silver will be key to mitigating USD negative real (inflation-adjusted, dividends-reinvested) return.

    If world GDP declines for a decade+, I guesstimate all or supermajority of stock indices would decline in real return terms. Already many stock indices like USA & India are very overvalued (pick your metric, Robert Shiller 10-yr CAPE, Warren Buffet Market/GDP, etc). OTOH, some currently are inexpensive like Australia Brazil. But even the inexpensive national stock markets could become expensive if the world GDP say reduces by 30%+ over 10 years.

    Long term sovereign bonds, like the US 30-yr Treasury index, were key for AAs in the 2008 GFC. But in Limits To Growth, it seems there would be secular high inflation, which would likely reduce the real return of all existing bonds.

    Gold & silver, with some of their demand being industrial as opposed to investing (personal, central banks, etc), would be among the Limited Resources that are Limiting Growth, and would be likely post real returns.

    Historical backtesting will not note this situation, as a major dire Limits To Growth scenario NEVER occurred yet globally during the capitalist era (1750? or 1900?-now) where both stocks & bonds were “mature”/institutionalized known financial assets that were widely owned by institutions and at least 20% of individuals (if including stock indices instead of individual company stock) in some developed nations.

    Is my reasoning valid here? What do ya think?! (c) Ed Schultz

    1. Steve H.

      In the Limits to Growth scenarios, it was not limited resources that caused collapse, it was pollution. They mentioned CO2 once, but didn’t have climate change as a major scenario. The costs associated with climate change are beyond comprehension or summary.

      Deflation is as likely as inflation. For the past: ‘The average Pacific Palisades, CA home value is $3,076,739, down 7.8% over the past year.’ Check back next month: ‘The average home value in Hatteras, NC is $506244, down 1.3% over the past year.’

  18. DJG, Reality Czar

    The article on U.S. government tracking Social Security recipients and their trips, plus the underlying article at Yahoo.

    It seems to me from the numbers given that the U.S. government is trying to target recipients of SSI. U.S. citizens have a recognized right to their SSA pension. But the U.S. government — you know, looking for welfare Cadillacs — makes it hard to get SSI and can even get crappy about survivors’ benefits. So they are the groups that are now being DOGEd.

    From the Yahoo Finance article underlying the MSN article : “Under long-standing rules, SSI and Social Security recipients must self-report foreign travel that lasts 30 days or more. If you are a citizen, you may still be able to collect Social Security while residing abroad, but SSI is strictly limited to residents of the U.S. and certain U.S. territories (3).”

    That reference 3 leads to this brochure, which all of us on SSA have downloaded for our own safety:
    https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10137.pdf

    I’m not sure where the enforcement of this new Purity Campaign is going to come from: DOGE already has gotten rid of SSA employees.

    Is this why ICE feels compelled to visit Italy for the Winter Olympics? A scandal now spreading endless joy among the Italians…

  19. Jason Boxman

    Lyle McDonald has a diet based around protein, with no carbs, and very little fats, titled “Rapid Fat Loss”, which I’ve used with success while maintaining muscle and workout performance. It’s for a short term duration, at most a few months. As he’s written elsewhere, though, to lose weight a diet is successful if you’ve got a caloric imbalance. At a high level the rest is implementation details. Over longer periods there are consequences though, and it’s useful to know what those are. I’ve never tried Keto, I’ve stuck with what works. I prefer RFL to eating whatever I want with a severe caloric restriction; RFL is more palatable, I’m less hungry focusing on lean proteins and cooked vegetables.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      What you were doing was keto. No or very low carbs is keto. You put your body in what is called a ketogenic state where it has to break down fats or protein to make blood sugar.

      You lose more weight on keto than on a normal diet because your body cannot make glucose as efficiently. If 3500 calories (with enough carbs for blood sugar making purpose) = one pound, it takes more than 3500 with no carbs to create the needed amount of glucose. Or your body can draw on stored fat but that is similarly inefficient.

    2. Jacktish

      I do Keto as I would be full blown diabetic otherwise. My only “guilt” foods are occasional fruit, but no grains or carb rich veggies. Keeps my hba1c down.

  20. XXYY

    Cat bullying dogs

    I read recently that female cats are much more commonly “left-handed” and male cats are much more commonly “right-handed.”

    I wonder if we are seeing evidence of that in these video clips where a cat bonks a dog 10 times in a second. The cats do seem to have a preferred paw for striking with, though maybe it’s just a matter of where the dog is or what it’s expecting, like a human boxer would do.

  21. Jason Boxman

    Garbage in, garbage out

    Researchers Are Using A.I. to Decode the Human Genome (NY Times)

    Dr. Salzberg of Johns Hopkins is less sanguine about AlphaGenome, in part because he thinks its creators put too much trust in the data they trained it on. Scientists who study splice sites don’t agree on which sites are real and which are genetic mirages. As a result, they have created databases that contain different catalogs of splice sites.

    “The community has been working for 25 years to try to figure out what are all the splice sites in the human genome, and we’re still not really there,” Dr. Salzberg said. “We don’t have an agreed-upon gold-standard set.”

  22. mrsyk

    This video could be titled What dogs put up with, lol. I don’t know about the lefty/righty thing, but notice that no claws are used in most of those dustups.

    1. LifelongLib

      I haven’t seen the Judge Nap video, but similar events involving federal agents have happened before:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lon_Horiuchi

      See especially the “Manslaughter Charge” section. If I understand the outcome right, a federal appeals court said the state prosecution could proceed, but the state decided to drop the case.

  23. Jason Boxman

    Fed still thinks the economy is mooning

    Fed holds key interest rate steady as economic view improves (CNBC)

    The Federal Reserve held its key interest steady in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% after a recent run of interest rate cuts.
    “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization,” the central bank said in its post-meeting statement. “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

    No one cares about ObamaCare subsidy expiration anymore, except, I guess, the people that got hosed.

    We get serious AI bubble

    Growth as measured by the widest measure, gross domestic product, has been robust. The third quarter motored ahead at a 4.4% clip and the final three months of the year are tracking at a 5.4% rate, according to the Atlanta Fed.

    1. Sam Culotte

      Garbage in: Economic statistics including, among many others, GDP
      Garbage out: Any Fed statement.

    2. ilsm

      Can’t be the dollar sell off the past couple of days….

      While Trump keep tooting his horn on the great economy since he took over.

  24. LifelongLib

    Sorry, look under “Ruby Ridge” for the “Manslaughter Charge” section.

    Also, this was quite a few years ago and laws/court rulings may have changed.

    1. Lefty Godot

      There is a Jon Ronson essay about Ruby Ridge called “Running Through the Grass” which I recommend to everyone. But it will make your blood boil if you have any love for the Bill of Rights and the principles our country was supposedly founded on. And, again, this trend toward giving federal agents more and more “immunity” for entrapment, agent provocateur tactics, and lethal violence is a bipartisan project going back a long way.

  25. Wukchumni

    Was told by a liftie @ Deer Valley that this winter is the least in snow accumulation since 1938, and if it wasn’t for manmade snow, there’d be hardly anything on the ground, which is the situation when you look towards bare mountains in the distance.

    My sister in Denver related that it might be even bleaker there.

    Water may become a very big issue in the west, later in the year~

  26. Tom Stone

    That “Hawaiian” shirt that Palmer Lucky is pictured wearing appears to show palm trees at first glance, look a little closer and you will see the explosion knocking the tree down and and blowing a brown skinned human through the air.
    Just Palmer having a few yucks.

  27. Tom Stone

    What happens when it becomes undeniable that Trump is bonkers and the 25th Amendment starts being discussed in the MSM?
    I expect Vance to become Trump enemy #1 instantly, those around Trump to encourage him to Fight,Fight,Fight! because they have more than ricebowls to protect, prison is a distinct possibility for some.
    I don’t think the votes are there for impeachment yet, however I do expect incandescent rage from Trump.
    He has no filters any more, he has lost it.
    Maybe we’ll get lucky…

    1. The Rev Kev

      ‘What happens when it becomes undeniable that Trump is bonkers and the 25th Amendment starts being discussed in the MSM?’

      Why nothing of course. Ronald Reagan was going of into la-la land in his second term but he stayed. Joe Biden had symptoms of dementia before even being elected President but he was carried for his full four years. Trump may go raving nuts but the political establishment will carry him through to 2028 as well. It’s the DC way.

  28. Noone from Nowheresville

    Bystander video reveals confrontation between Alex Pretti and federal agents 11 days before killing
    Star Tribune
    5 min ago

    https://www.startribune.com/bystander-video-reveals-confrontation-between-alex-pretti-and-federal-agents-11-days-before-killing/601572009

    “A week before Alex was gunned down in the street — despite posing no threat to anyone — he was violently assaulted by a group of ICE agents,” Steve Schleicher, an attorney representing the family, said in a statement after reviewing footage and still images from the incident. Nothing that happened a full week before could possibly have justified Alex’s killing at the hands of ICE on Jan 24.”

  29. AG

    re: Germany deindustrialization

    BERLINER ZEITUNG

    machine-translation

    Exodus of German companies: BMW, Henkel and ZF relocate to Hungary and Serbia

    It’s not just in eastern Germany that the lights are going out, while factories are springing up in Debrecen and Novi Sad. German companies are relocating to where politicians listen to them.
    https://archive.is/XDm09

  30. KD

    US quietly passes new rule to track millions on Social Security – will your trips be watched?

    I don’t get it. You work, you pay into the system, then you retire, and you don’t get your money unless you live in some country with overpriced housing, shitty and overpriced health care, rampant crime, civil unrest, crazy unhoused addicts inhabiting major urban areas, a hollowed out land of disconnected workaholics with no sense of family or tradition hiding in gated communities, with federal agents running around fragging peaceful protesters and putting people on some federal registry as a domestic terrorists because they don’t like their political opinions, and partisan politics which are just an alternating dumpster fire which grinds on making life more miserable for the average person no matter who wins.

    You pay into the system, you should get your money back, no matter where you live. If politicians want people not to move to more affordable and frankly, better managed societies, why not make their own country more livable for normal people, instead of shittier and shittier and then stealing their benefits if they try to leave. How is that possibly fair or reasonable?

  31. Jonathan Holland Becnel?

    Micael T: “I do like the concrete proposals but ffs the problem is not government overreach but oligarch overreach.”

    Facts bro

    The next step in my little personal persuasion campaign of ordinary workers involves their wholly blaming the government for everything. Like bro WHERE DO YOU THINK ALL MONEY WENT?!

  32. Noone from Nowheresville

    IM Doc January 28, 2026 at 6:03 pm,

    The world has already dramatically shifted. I think perhaps one change your 60s protesters overlook is that now MLK might very well be shot in the head while kneeling / praying and society would find a way to victim blame him. Then another media circus would be created and he’d been mostly forgotten in 2 weeks. Or worse, most wouldn’t know who he was or even why it mattered.

    From NC 01/12 Daily links

    Enforcement Regime Michale Macher, Phenomenal World. Well worth a read.

    The administration’s opening salvo in the transformation of federal policing involved systematically removing legal and institutional barriers to immigration enforcement. Executive actions dismantled watchdog agencies, exposed sensitive data and spaces to immigration authorities, expanded “expedited” removal, and disregarded due process for legal residents and citizens. Millions have been made ineligible for bond and asylum hearings, while temporary protected status (TPS) has been revoked for one group after another. These moves came alongside a break with the fifteen-year-long trend away from interior enforcement. ICE has now shifted its attention away from the US-Mexico border and onto major cities, increasing the rate of interior arrests at an alarming clip, with government data showing ICE on track to deport upwards of 300,000 noncitizens this year.1

    If this article is accurate on the level of funding, legal framework and resource changes. What happens when this new improved department is fully online? You don’t build a federal police force like this without using it, especially if the plan is to minimize your undocumented immigrant population via direct and self-deportation. Immigrant numbers should get much much smaller, right? Yet the funding continues to increase.

    Anyway, I do remember the increased immigrant policing after the tomato pickers won their penny per pound raise from Wendy’s, Taco Bell, etc. I also remember the 17-city paramilitary strike with federal and local law enforcement to disband Occupy.

    Burn it all down is a multi-decade governmental path. Chicken Little said the sky is falling. Eight years later, the falling sky has been Fast Tracked and there’s no real resistance in sight.

    If we look at Minneapolis, There’s a multi-pronged carrot & stick effort. Give us this and we’ll temporarily remove federal immigrant policing even while we torch your state managed federal programs.

    Local & State official are ill-prepared. Citizens and Residents are on their own. Honking horns, blowing whistles, tracking unmarked vehicles, taking videos, trying to make sure that someone sees when someone is taken or state actor violence occurs….

    ====
    Pretti. 36th & Park vs. 26th & Nicollet. Same man, different person. We are all tested and we’ve all made choices (large and small) we wish we could take back. I understand your critique but don’t let Pretti’s gun be a distraction.

    The NRA & gun owners have been brought to the table. They are paying attention to something they would’ve ignored. Perhaps the gun will play out in important and unexpected ways.

    e.g., Maybe Border Patrol wouldn’t have bothered with Pretti without his previous encounter with ICE. Maybe there is an actual domestic terrorist database with Pretti & his concealed weapon in it. Maybe there’s a Signal Chat transcript informing Border Patrol who Pretti was before he was shot. Maybe this is the only way Border Patrol bodycam footage gets shown to the public.

    Either we see the possibilities offered by Pretti’s & Good’s deaths to counter the Burn It All Down / Plan #1 or we don’t. These opportunities quickly close and it’s doubtful they will come again.

    ====
    People I know who lived through MLK’s arrival to their cities and agreed with the overall goals of the movement, have told me that the protests and protesters weren’t as peaceful as history currently remembers them.

    At a guess because only multi-pronged demands and tactics from multiple groups could effect change.

    What are the multi-pronged citizen demands to counter Plan #1 and the current phase of further stripping US citizens & residents of their rights?

    If Citizens have no rights then immigrants have no rights.

Comments are closed.