Links 1/28/2026

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1. lyman alpha blob January 28, 2026 at 7:36 am

   Snow leopard 1, Tourist 0

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   1. The Rev Kev January 28, 2026 at 7:40 am

      Is that headline comparable to the old Roman scoreboard? ‘Lions five, Christians nil.’

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2. The Rev Kev January 28, 2026 at 7:38 am

   “Hungary to challenge EU ban on Russian gas imports at European Court”

   If the EU has a just justice system, Hungary should win. The EU has tried to sanction all Russian gas but needing a unanimous vote, Fico and Orban have made sure to vote against it. But now the EU is doing the same proposal but pretending that it is a trading agreement which only needs a majority vote. In the EU, the law can be such a flexible thing or even ignored.

   If this goes through, then the EU is borked. It gets a bit of gas from Algeria and Qatar but the bulk majority comes from the US and this change would mean that the EU is totally dependent on the US. But I also heard that US gas is starting to run down so that in 10-15 years the US will have to cut gas exports to save that gas for the local market. At that point, the people of Europe will be reduced to rubbing two sticks together for warmth in the wintertime. This is the most idiotic timeline.

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   1. Skip Intro January 28, 2026 at 10:36 am

      Slovakia reportedly is also suing the EU over the ban. I can see the suits succeeding as the EU finds a face saving way to back off of the suicidal policy without appearing to be soft on Putin.
      And of course, oil & gas revenue from the EU is irrelevant to Russia’s ability to produce arms and fight in Ukraine, so the self-sacrifice is stupidly pointless as well.

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3. Ben Panga January 28, 2026 at 7:40 am

   The Trump Truth Social Post is satire

   It says a lot about where we are that it’s believable though.

   Stay safe everyone.

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   1. Yves Smith Post authorJanuary 28, 2026 at 8:00 am

      Shit will remove.

      It was re-posted by some reputable Twitter accounts….

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      1. Ben Panga January 28, 2026 at 8:13 am

         The debunk link had a link to a searchable archive of Trump’s truth posts

         https://trumpstruth.org/

         I had a dabble and you seem to be able to search by keyword OR date range.

         Maybe useful for those of us who want to see what he says without using his platform.

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4. TimH January 28, 2026 at 8:08 am

   Stephanie “LB” post is a must-read to cheer you up on the good side of human nature.

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5. flora January 28, 2026 at 8:23 am

   An aside:
   Whenever I see a photo of Stephan Miller I think of the title of Hannah Arendt’s famous book Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil .

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   1. ChiGal January 28, 2026 at 9:31 am

      I think of Gollum *shivers*

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   2. redleg January 28, 2026 at 10:39 am

      The dude looks and acts like Mussolini.

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      1. Michael Fiorillo January 28, 2026 at 10:48 am

         I was thinking more along the lines of Himmler.

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         1. JMH January 28, 2026 at 12:41 pm

            Needs the glasses for a near perfect match

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   3. Sam Culotte January 28, 2026 at 12:11 pm

      George Orwell once said that he wasn’t surprised that people could be evil. He was surprised, however, that they were never ashamed.

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6. ThirtyOne January 28, 2026 at 8:29 am

   War Secretary Greenlights ICE Using Military Base in Minnesota

   Maybe they found some “extra fresh” ingredients in their food.

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   1. ilsm January 28, 2026 at 8:46 am

      As far as I can see, Ft Snelling is an Army Reserve Post. The remnants of a once large army post.

      It probably has a fairly large system of barracks for the weekend warriors, most of which less than the standard Hampton Inn!

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      1. redleg January 28, 2026 at 11:00 am

         Having worked on that site back in the day (surveyor and construction QC), most of the post housing is not useable. The majority of the buildings are lovely limestone structures that have been awaiting restoration for years. The newer brick structures don’t look big enough to hold a brigade but I haven’t been in them. Even the (once nice) O club has been abandoned since 2010 or so. I suppose that DHS/ICE funding to restore the structures to a habitable state is a positive for Minnesota, but JFC where in the wide wide world of sports are they going to get a construction crew to work on that project?

         The Navy and Air Force Reserve bases at MSP might have additional housing, although it might be cots on the drill floor instead of barracks or rooms. I would question their per diem if thay get government housing and a mess hall.

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   2. Bugs January 28, 2026 at 1:17 pm

      50ml castor oil per person should do the trick. Clean as a whistle in the morning.

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7. The Rev Kev January 28, 2026 at 8:35 am

   “Trump splits with Vance over Minneapolis shooting”

   Trump screwed up badly here – twice. He either had to admit that he believed the lie told to him that Alex Pretti was an assassin without checking the evidence or he would have had to admit that he lied himself about Alex Pretti. So he did the only thing that he could. He threw his team members – including Vance – under a bus so hard that they bounced.

   But then came his second error. He blathered that ‘That being said, you can’t have guns, you can’t walk in with guns… it’s a very unfortunate incident.’ This automatically infuriated the Second Amendment believers as well as the all powerful National Rifle Association. He really needs to put his brain into gear before engaging his mouth.

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   1. ilsm January 28, 2026 at 8:56 am

      Will wait and see if the MAGA crazies (some are X bots) stop referring to JD Vance as “48”.

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      1. The Rev Kev January 28, 2026 at 9:47 am

         I don’t know why those MAGA crazies have to be so insulting to JD Vance. Yeah, the guy is short and reminds me of Trump’s mini-me (as depicted in South Park) but he is definitely taller that 48 inches.

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   2. flora January 28, 2026 at 8:59 am

      Well T was obviously just repeating what Kash Patel has been saying this week. Kash is clearly wrong. The Constitution is whole. The Bill of Rights are whole. They aren’t a pick-and-choose list of options.

      Then Rep. Barbara Jordan on the Constitution.
      utube, ~13+ minutes.

      B Jordan impeachment speech

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG6xMglSMdk

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   3. voislav January 28, 2026 at 9:18 am

      I remember IM Doc (IIRC) mentioning that Trump might have white matter disease, so there may not be a gear to put the brain into.

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      1. ambrit January 28, 2026 at 10:48 am

         That would be cog-nitive decline, no?

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         1. JP January 28, 2026 at 2:04 pm

            Ratshit

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8. mrsyk January 28, 2026 at 8:41 am

   “Meet Melinda”, I am ever so curious as to how that post made it through TikTok’s moderation.

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   1. The Rev Kev January 28, 2026 at 9:52 am

      She is crazy enough and is virtually confessing on those videos to encouraging felonies. Then the thought occurred to me that this is the exact personality type that would kill babies as a midwife or would kill old people through various drugs because they can. They are out there and I have read about such people. But to see one talking about their plans is kinda freaky.

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      1. t January 28, 2026 at 10:09 am

         Or, she is just desperate for attention and crashed around looking for something outrageous to post. Which isn’t much better.

         There was a trend a while back for OBGYN nurses to squirt lube on the perfectly unwrinkled paper of an exam table that had not been used and then film themselves making fun of a fictional patient who was meant to be leaking something. A witless form of slut shaming I guess. Incoherent cruelty.

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   2. pjay January 28, 2026 at 10:13 am

      Yes. It is certainly possible this is real. But my first knee jerk reaction was different than IM Doc’s. To begin with, it was posted by ‘Libs of Tik Tok’, a right-wing propaganda site that specializes in highlighting such extreme examples to smear “liberals.” My first question was whether this person was real. But even if she was – and crazy enough to risk the consequences suggested by both IM Doc and Rev Kev – this is not representative of the mindset or philosophy of the majority of protesters.

      It certainly provides propaganda ammunition to the Miller-Noem-Vance narrative though, and therefore is doing a tremendous disservice to those who are literally risking their lives against these thugs. Yes, there are crazies of all political persuasions. But this seems just a little too convenient.

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      1. Yves Smith Post authorJanuary 28, 2026 at 10:56 am

         I thought this was likely AI and did not run the tweet until IM Doc tracked down the tweet from her employer, to which I linked above to substantiate her clips.

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      2. IM Doc January 28, 2026 at 11:10 am

         Yes – but as I point out above – these health care workers have been “supplying propaganda” all week. Some of them are just egregious. These are absolutely real. This has nothing to do with libs of tiktok. I gave Yves the Libs of Tik Tok link because she had kindly put together in one place all the crazy videos this individual has been creating for days with the wild cheers of supporters in the comments. Libs of Tik Tok is just the National Enquirer exposing it to the world. Except in this case – she does not need to embellish – the health care workers have the hideous behavior down to the tee.

         And again, unfortunately, this is not isolated behavior. This is going on with all kinds of medical students. You can rest assured that this CRNA, Melinda, has been building up to this for a long time. There is nothing “a little too convenient” about what I hear in my own world and the stories I hear all the time.

         I long ago realized that our culture and our politics is in a death spiral. We have absolutely horrible people on all sides egging this on. I am a Democrat – I could not even begin to consider voting for them now. I feel the same about the GOP. The crazy is all around us. Until ALL SIDES realize the danger we are in – we are just going to be in a never-ending slide. I would encourage everyone to have their eyes and ears open.

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         1. flora January 28, 2026 at 11:26 am

            an aside: I received a begging letter from Minnesota’s Ken Martin today. Yes. That guy. Current chair of the DNC. (Donkeys Need Cash / ;)

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         2. Jason Boxman January 28, 2026 at 12:18 pm

            It is a shame that hospital systems aren’t freaking out over infecting patients with SARS-CoV-2; no one masked in the cardiac ICU my dad briefly inhabited before he died. No one. I find it doubtful that contracting SARS-CoV-2 would improve the outcome prospects for a patient in an ICU.

            This timeline is stupid.

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      3. alrhundi January 28, 2026 at 11:55 am

         Good point. Libs of Tik Tok is a propaganda outlet. Either this is real and they found it to post for outrage or its fake for the same reason.

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         1. IM Doc January 28, 2026 at 12:00 pm

            It has become very tedious for those of us trying to rationally figure out what is going on to have constantly valid issues from the other side dismissed as propaganda.

            Neither the numerous videos this individual, and many others this week, posted on their own accounts – which I saw before pulled down, or all the comments and issues I have to deal with these students are propaganda.

            Again, part of the nuts on both sides problem is the absolute unwilling behavior to acknowledge the problems on your own side.

            These nuts are on the side that I have belonged to for years. They are damaging so much about what valid issues that others have. I am very tough on them – because I can see right through it.

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   3. IM Doc January 28, 2026 at 10:16 am

      Well, I suppose it was the same way they allowed any number of comments on some of those videos when I was first made aware of them a few days ago. Pages and pages and pages of absolutely psychotic stuff. Mind you, a lot of that may very well be bots – I am certain that there are malign actors all around us that are egging this polarization on. But many of them were clearly not. And unfortunately, at least a few of them appeared to be from people in the same institution. In other words, others knew, and were backing this behavior to the hilt. This has all been removed now of course. I would dare say that the VCU institution has a lot of investigation and hopefully soul-searching in its future. There may also be a lot of “get out the checkbook and start writing” fun.

      I think I should make something very clear. This nurse was a CRNA – a certified registered nurse anesthetist. My understanding is that she mainly worked in the pediatrics area. Because of her position, she not only had access to succinylcholine, but countless other drugs that could kill a patient in the blink of an eye. There have been numerous stories across the nation of anesthesia professionals gone bad and killing patients under their care. The scary part of this story is her patients were apparently kids. In other words, she sees grandpa is a deputy – and takes it all out on the innocent child. There is no evidence of anything like this as of now, but I guarantee you that every medicine cabinet, Pyxis, and delivery system in that entire hospital system is being thoroughly investigated down to the lot numbers. These stories always involve sticky fingers on the part of the perpetrators.

      In case you have not noticed, this week has seen a flurry of health care workers going on social media, and announcing all kinds of unhinged statements, threats, bullying, and crazy behavior directed at MAGA patients, ICE, local law enforcement, etc. I have seen some of these – and to say they are unhinged is a vast understatement. There is no universe in which this is appropriate in any kind of way. It is perfectly acceptable to make ones voice heard to protest. We are in a whole other world when we are suborning murder in real time.

      Of course, this Melinda one was so over the top that the medical group on this site immediately thought it was AI. That is a whole other problem in our world today. But within hours I knew it was not. I also know that in every case of the other videos I have seen this week, the employer and/or the licensing boards have already taken action. These are not fake.

      What has happened to my profession that this kind of thing is allowed? What would cause a young person to take their entire life’s work and throw it down the drain? I have made it crystal clear to my medical colleagues, to my old professors, and multiple cases in medical boards that I am seeing a very alarming rise in the young in my profession of just absolute callous disregard, of refusal to live up to their oaths, of absolute racial or creed discrimination, of absolutely egregious behavior like this. It is palpable. They refuse to even address Jewish people as patients, some of them refuse to see men, some of them refuse to see white people, on and on and on. So many times I hear all kinds of vicious comments under the breath. I am at most tangentially involved. To contemplate that this behavior is not being addressed by their professors back home is so very concerning to me. Part of my job is to train young people to have a successful career. This kind of behavior is not going to be consistent with that goal. I in no way think this behavior is widespread. What is widespread however, is the underlying tolerance of it – and not nipping it in the bud.

      Every person no matter their creed, race, religion, etc. deserves a physician to be their advocate. In my wildest dreams, I would never have thought this kind of behavior would be present at the end of my career, much less being tolerated. The same young people who were laughing and chortling at the unvaccinated as they were suffocating to death are the same ones in these videos. Never ever forget that medical ethicists at our leading medical schools got on TV and did not strike this behavior down. Instead, they seemed to almost support it. The public deserves so much better than this from my profession.

      When I think of my father, and my old professors of medicine who taught me all I know, I weep. They would all be so ashamed.

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      1. .human January 28, 2026 at 10:36 am

         I truly do not relish saying this, but, everything is going according to plan :-(

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         1. JMH January 28, 2026 at 12:34 pm

            Please outline the plan. Whose plan is it? How do you know of its existence?

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      2. mrsyk January 28, 2026 at 10:56 am

         Thank you for taking the time. I wholly agree.
         I’ll point at 94K likes and speculate that this post has the endorsement of X (I misattributed to TikTok above). Sadly, Team brown-shirts will point at this while defending the goons with guns in the street.
         The specter spiraling violence is in the room, waiting for a nod.
         Stay safe.

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      3. flora January 28, 2026 at 11:18 am

         It’s my understanding that some good med colleges now do not require graduating med students to take the Hippocratic Oath. They are allowed to write their own personal oath, or the class as a whole is allowed to write the an oath. The new oath idea all sounds very… optional, temporary, and subject to change. School A students take a different oath than school B students. Thus putting future docs on different obligation understands from the beginning. What could go wrong?

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         1. flora January 28, 2026 at 11:38 am

            adding: there are groups paying people to make certain kinds of comments on social media to influence readers’ opinions. It’s known as Dark Money influence on the web.

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      4. pjay January 28, 2026 at 11:33 am

         I do not condone such language; as I said above (posted before I read this comment), it is extremely counter-productive. Of course if I wanted to play the whataboutism game, I could easily find innumerable equally sociopathic statements from right-wing influencers and MAGA identifiers – which doesn’t make it right. I could also suggest watching the videos now available that clearly show ICE (or Border Control) agents throwing a man trying to protect a woman protester onto his hands and knees and executing him in cold blood. Without condoning, I can understand how people, especially idealistic young people, might see violent resistance as justified against such thugs. Of course all the damage done that you mention is real. And not even all ICE agents are fascistic thugs deserving of a horrible death; some of the more experienced have been quite critical of the actions of these individuals.

         I am very concerned about these events for all the reasons discussed here daily. But those who think this a uniquely chaotic time with regard to state-sponsored violence, political polarization, or advocacy of violent resistance must have forgotten the 1960s. I remember it well, though I was too young to have been a direct participant. Back then there was certainly a segment of the “resistance” who felt a violent response against state-sponsored violence and repression was justified.In my view have not yet approached the degree of violence, or violent rhetoric, of that era. I don’t even think we have reached its degree of political polarization. But as you rightly point out, we didn’t have social media then.

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         1. IM Doc January 28, 2026 at 12:34 pm

            I am certainly not a big fan of what is going on the right. But I am not of the right. I have little or no control over anything on the right. When my side is screwing things up beyond recognition I feel it is imperative to do what I can to get things back on the right track. And we are screwing things up – and giving the other side all kinds of ammunition. It is very difficult for the twitter addicts, and those in the blue bubbles to understand just how bad the Dem Party and the Left is viewed out here in the hinterlands. I know these videos do not represent the views of the majority of people on the left. But the excusing, tolerating, cries of “whataboutism” etc only damage any efforts to get people to listen. Unless and until there are those on the left stating to their own side – THIS IS BULL SHIT STOP IT RIGHT NOW, no excuses given, we are stuck in a loop of doom.

            I was not a direct participant either. Unless you count the numerous times I went to the jail with an older neighbor or other adults to bail out my those who had been arrested. Or the couple of times that one of these people had physical harm – I distinctly remember the broken nose. Their attitude was – “you break my nose, I will turn to you the other side of my face – have fun. You are the one who looks not so good in the eyes of the world.” The style of protest that was happening back then – the MLK version – was distinctly different than what we are seeing now. It is hard for me to tell which issues were worse – theirs or ours. After all, my elders then were protesting the hundreds of thousands being sent to the meat grinder and the hundreds of thousands of body bags coming home. They were protesting the history of absolute racial issues that the country had tolerated for far too long. The goal for their protest was for it to be peaceful and ever-growing. It was meant to shine the light on the other side’s moral bankruptcy. It was meant to slowly but surely show the world that what was happening was not OK – but part of that was NOT TO BE “NOT OK” YOURSELF. The protests back then were not done to show the world your own moral bankruptcy. I spent a large amount of my life talking to my own elders, patients and so many of their friends who were involved. They all knew that if they were confronted by the law, they would be suffering the consequences. I have heard over and over again when I have talked to these protestors of long ago the basic thought “do what you need to do – just do not do anything to get yourself killed”. The ones I knew and the vast majority of what I see happened in that era realized that being arrested, etc was part of the process and they were just not going to resist it. It was part of the process. I can assure you that my elders, patients and all of their friends would really not recognize what is going on today. But they did indeed suffer consequences in their lives. I have numerous acquaintances in my life who are still around from those days – and I for the most part am not hearing glowing positivity about what is going on today.

            It is so hard for me to contemplate the maelstrom of what is going on today from both sides and not just be sick unto death – especially thinking about all those who managed to do this and to get something done.

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            1. flora January 28, 2026 at 1:13 pm

               Thank you. From the National Archives:

               Confrontations for Justice
               John Lewis – March from Selma to Montgomery, “Bloody Sunday,” 1965

               https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/eyewitness/html.php?section=2

               I think MLK studied the work of India’s Mahatma Gandhi.

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      5. redleg January 28, 2026 at 12:30 pm

         In a time when Federal paramilitaries are executing, beating, and disappearing people with impunity, I’m surprised that anyone is surprised by this. The most obvious barometer of where the US attitude on taking extreme extrajudicial action was the reaction to the assassination of the United Health CEO.
         The easiest way to reverse this problem is to restore the rights of citizens and punish the cops/executives causing the problem. Lawlessness eventually becomes a two-way street and, since this situation has no end in sight, i fully expect to see this person’s advice be deployed to more applause than is safe.

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   4. ThirtyOne January 28, 2026 at 10:47 am

      How old do you suppose Melinda is? She acts like social media sociopath.

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9. AG January 28, 2026 at 8:51 am

   re: Ukraine War casualty numbers

   When inconvenient numbers from Ukraine are leaked/made public after a hack/being estimated indirectly (via phone numbers or cemetary satellite images or dating figures) – they are being ignored.

   Now US “think tank” CSIS has published a “study” and it´s of course at once picked up and discussed.

   Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine
   Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power
   January 27, 2026
   https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine

   German TELEPOLIS blog which has been positioning itself between oppositional media and those parroting establishment views has a brief piece onf this study and is trying to voice doubts.

   But as CSIS is using fake numbers the German article´s skepticism in the light of what really is going on at the front and what it means for the war, for “peace” talks, for Europe at large and the world itself – is not really serious or adequate.

   machine-translation

   Ukraine War: How reliable are the new casualty figures?
   https://archive.is/6U8rD

   They do point out that numbers provided by Kiev are not 100% trustworthy (really?!)
   However their scrutiy goes only so far:

   “(…)
   A closer look reveals an asymmetry in the data collection, which is relevant for readers critical of sources:
   For the Russian side, a robust database exists thanks to the Mediazona project and the BBC Russian Service. Journalists there count confirmed deaths by name – through obituaries, cemetery photos, and social media posts. This “hard” lower limit is then extrapolated using multipliers.
   (…)”.

   Multipliers? What multipliers? What are they talking about? They just put this in. Without any further explanation.

   The fact that a formerly 10:1 ratio in artillery shells and by now much more obviously will result in correspondingly higher deaths among AFU has been completely forgotten.

   Also I have not seen a single item in German media quoting the numbers provided by the RU MoD.
   Not once.

   I am now waiting for German antiwar party to use this embarrassing CSIS-report, sigh. Not understanding that by adopting the propaganda they are doing NATO´s job.

   How can you not go insane seeing all this?

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   1. voislav January 28, 2026 at 9:28 am

      It’s very simple to estimate the maximum potential number of Russian casualties. Russian Armed Forces started the war with ~900K personnel, they have since expanded to 1.55M. So that’s extra 650K. Russia has mobilized 300 K in year 1 and has been recruiting 300-400K a year since, so let’s say 300K, 350K, 400K, 400K over 4 year for a total of 1.65M.

      So the maximum number of losses from all causes (casualties, desertion, demobilization) is 1 million. Unlike Ukrainians, who are signed for the duration, Russians are signed on 1- or 2-year contracts and are routinely demobilized, so there is probably several hundred thousand demobilized troops in Russia so far. So realistically, we are looking at 150K killed and 450K wounded (typical 3-1 ratio) for a total of 600K casualties over the course of the whole war, in line with reliable reporting from sources like Mediazona.

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      1. AG January 28, 2026 at 1:33 pm

         Losses to me are always forces which are lost and cannot be recovered. Either KIA or MIA or maimed. To add demobilized among losses makes no sense to me. To my understanding RUs are rotating for the very reason to prolong the viability of their available soldiers. Instead of wearing them out until not recoverable any more (a method German Luftwaffe was applying in WWII which is why e.g. their pilots in average had more so-called aces until they would eventually die in combat instead of using more pilots with fewer dogfight victories.)

         When exactly did the RU numbers reach 900k? Can´t find it, sorry. We know they did start out with 90k-120k vs. by April according to Zelensky´s public statement 750k AFU.

         Or more exact via Jacques Baud´s numbers:

         „(…)
         In May 2022, with the mobilization of Ukraine, 700,000 troops faced the 100,000 to 190,000 troops of the Russian coalition (Russia, DPR and LPR). This means a 3-4:1 ratio in favor of Ukraine during phase 1 of the operation.
         (…)“

         So one has to take into account the different size and continuous increase of forces on both sides during the conflict to assess the effectiveness and the applicable kill ratios of weapons.

         The 1:3 ratio is merely an average standad applied for the old-style of conducting an offensive.

         Baud on this:
         „(…)
         Our TV strategists keep repeating that the rules of military art call for a superiority of 3 to 1 to be successful in an attack. In fact, this is only a planning value, valid for a frontal attack. An examination of the great battles of history shows that in 57% of cases, the attacker achieved victory despite a ratio that was unfavorable to him. The explanation for this apparent contradiction lies in the art of operations: it is maneuver and the succession of actions within an operation that can compensate for an unfavorable ratio. The maneuver must prevent the adversary from regrouping in order to organize his defense. This is what the Ukrainians failed to do in 2022, as they no longer had any maneuvering capability.
         (…)“

         (quotes from “THE RUSSIAN ART OF WAR”)

         Besides, the rules to such a kind of offensive today have fundamentally changed. You can´t just go out on and attack any more. You are spotted and within 20 minutes wiped out. Which is one reason why the SMO is not tied to a time window but instead to minimizing RU losses.

         Also US military models as most likely used by US think tanks are operating with US style air dominance which is just not the case here.

         So any standard variables might not be appropriate (any more ) under the new conditions of a large war. Which is the overarching issue with all the military discussions in the West.

         They are applying non-realistic schemes. And when those schemes fail even in simulations (like against China) they rewrite the rules, repeat the simulation until they win. That´s not serious. And the CSIS environment is breathing and operating in this bubble of complete fraud I have the impression.

         p.s. I just cannot reach https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation.htm
         Maybe someone has the latest tally.

         – I seem to have some Internet issues which causes trouble when posting – editing is a problem –

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         1. Aurelien January 28, 2026 at 2:04 pm

            The so-called “3 to 1” ratio was just a rule of thumb developed before 1914 by the Prussians in their Kriegspiel operational level war-games. Because the focus was on operational manoeuvring, they did not try to play the outcome of individual battles. It was assumed for simplicity that if you could bring your enemy to battle with that kind of advantage, you would win.

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   2. The Rev Kev January 28, 2026 at 9:56 am

      Meanwhile, Zelensky has had a brilliant idea-

      ‘The Ukrainian military should focus on inflicting the highest possible casualties on Russia, Vladimir Zelensky has said, naming a figure of 50,000 Russian losses per month as an “optimal level” that troops should target.

      Speaking at an event dedicated to an assessment of Ukrainian drone units’ effectiveness, Zelensky said that “when it comes to 50,000 Russian losses per month, this is the optimal level,” calling it “the task of the Ministry of Defense… the task of our army, all… the security forces of Ukraine to guarantee exactly such a level of Russian losses.”’

      https://www.rt.com/russia/631617-zelensky-military-kill-russians/

      Yep, that should work a treat.

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      1. Ignacio January 28, 2026 at 12:56 pm

         Per Mediazona the last monthly count was 7500 Russians KIA. If we estimate 22.500 wounded using voislav´s rule of thumb (3X) total casualties were 30.000 (which looks comparatively high with previous numbers). The Ukrainian army has to improve a lot. It is a pity that Zelensky did not specify what is the “optimal level” of Ukrainian casualties. Probably because this is what matters the least to him and his supporters.

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   3. JohnA January 28, 2026 at 11:05 am

      The BBC has literally zero credibility as an objective news source these days. Perhaps it never really did. But the propaganda has become so blatant, even normally non critical news consumers can smell a hint of rat, if not the actual stinking container ship load of rat carcasses.

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10. johnnyme January 28, 2026 at 8:57 am

    Ecuador says ICE agent tried to enter consulate in Minneapolis

    MINNEAPOLIS, Jan 27 (Reuters) – A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent tried to get into Ecuador’s consulate in Minneapolis on Tuesday but was prevented from entering the premises by consulate staffers, the country’s Foreign Ministry said.

    “I saw the officers going after two people in the street, and then those people went into the consulate and the officers tried to go in after them,” said one woman, who asked not to be named, citing a fear of retribution by the federal government.

    The agents “weren’t able to enter the consulate, from what I could see,” she said.

    I’m curious to know what convinced them to back off.

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    1. flora January 28, 2026 at 9:44 am

       Legal status of consulates. From a longer article linked.

       “Legal Status of Consular Premises

       Consular premises are not considered “foreign soil” or extraterritorial in the same manner as diplomatic missions. Instead, the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations (1963) grants them “inviolability.” This inviolability means that host state authorities generally cannot enter consular premises without the consent of the head of the consular post or the head of the sending state’s diplomatic mission. Consular archives and documents are also inviolable. Despite these protections, the territory remains under host state sovereignty, and its laws generally apply within the consular premises.”

       https://legalclarity.org/is-a-consulate-considered-foreign-soil/

       The last thing ICE needs now is video of them invading a foreign consulate being broadcast on the nightly news. /my 2 cents.

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       1. johnnyme January 28, 2026 at 10:05 am

          I agree but they’ve shown absolutely no regard for laws or norms of any kind before now which has me curious as to why things unfolded the way they did.

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          1. flora January 28, 2026 at 10:18 am

             Mad Bovine out, Tom Homan in?
             From The Hill:

             What to know about Tom Homan, Trump border czar sent to Minnesota

             https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5708043-trump-homan-immigration-agenda-minnesota

             Also, Minn Gov Walz activated the Minn national guard.

             Reply ↓
11. Anonymous January 28, 2026 at 8:59 am

    Re: Just How High Can Silver Really Go?

    Yves mentions people selling their silver flatware and candleholders for melt value during the last run-up in silver prices.

    In 2024, post that earlier inflation and prior to the current one in the silver market, I was responsible for disposing of a relative’s household goods when the individual moved into nursing care. I learned very quickly (as I believe Yves did when she vacated her NYC apt.) that very few if any antiques retain any value, and that goes double for any household goods that tarnish, and therefore must be polished and carefully stored between uses.

    All “downsizing specialists” and estate sale managers insisted that sterling silver items be sold for melt value — and this was 18 months ago, when silver prices were low.

    Nobody wants anything old anymore. In fact, since “possessions” are entirely transitory, they may last for only a few uses, or a few months, before being landfilled to make room for the latest piece of junk from Wayfair, TEMU or Best Buy. The disposable society: a disaster in every respect.

    I have a sterling flatware service for 12 in Gorham’s Versailles pattern that was a wedding gift to my great aunt in 1896. It includes standard items for the time: 12 cream soup spoons AND 12 bouillon spoons. These were separate dinner courses and so naturally required their own implements. It would make sense to sell the whole lot for its melt value now, but I just can’t.

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    1. Wukchumni January 28, 2026 at 11:45 am

       A good amount of numismatic value in coins has been erased, take 5 piece US proof sets from 1955 to 1964 that contain about 6/10’s of an ounce of silver, a 1955 used to be worth $50, while a 1960-64 proof set was worth around $10.

       Well, they all have $65 worth of silver in content now~

       Gold has been even more so, when I retired 20 years ago a $20 St Gaudens gold coin graded MS 65 by PCGS or NGC which contained just under an ounce in content was worth $2500 when gold was $400 an ounce, they’re worth the melt value now of $5150, crazy that.

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    2. Joe Renter January 28, 2026 at 12:08 pm

       I was a sucker for silver when the Hunt brothers did their market manipulation in the early 80’s.
       Fast forward my Mother gifted me 40 silver eagles a few years back. I am now ahead of the game.
       Crazy times. Can we get a new economic system please. You know one that fair to all. Silly me.

       Reply ↓
12. AG January 28, 2026 at 9:07 am

    re: Germany sanctions vs. free speech

    important (especially as it will be ignored by German MSM)

    Sanction regime getting worse. I guess the term “chilling effect” is in place here. Denunciation is now an established element of the legal framework organizing everyday life.

    German OVERTON-MAGAZIN

    machine-translation

    Reichsgericht 2.0: Anyone who helps is committing a crime.
    https://archive.is/dtt2i

    “(…)
    With the implementation of the new EU regulations, Germany is tightening EU sanctions law. What was previously considered an administrative offense will now be a criminal offense – punishable by high prison sentences and fines, and a far-reaching extension of obligations to the entire environment of sanctioned individuals.

    With the law passed on January 15, 2026, to adapt criminal offenses and sanctions for violations of restrictive measures of the European Union, Germany has fundamentally tightened its sanctions law – and aligned it with Brussels’ requirements. Businesses are particularly affected. But the law also has implications for sanctioned individuals, as their economic, professional, and personal freedoms are now considerably restricted.
    (…)
    Violations of EU sanctions can now be classified as criminal offenses in almost all relevant situations. This applies not only to classic trade or export bans, but also to financial services, investments, consulting services, and even the failure to report frozen assets. Companies face fines of up to €40 million, while individuals face prison sentences of up to ten years in particularly serious cases.
    (…)
    A key element is the expansion of reporting obligations. Anyone who, in the course of their professional activities – for example, as a journalist, consultant, publisher, bank employee, or business partner – gains knowledge of the funds or economic resources of a sanctioned person must report this information to the authorities. Failure to report or late reporting can be a criminal offense.
    (…)”
    
    Scandal? What scandal? To use the old proverb – if it´s not in the paper, it´s not real.

    Reply ↓
    1. ambrit January 28, 2026 at 12:05 pm

       This looks like something the old Stasi would have implemented.
       Tell me now, who really won the War?

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13. ciroc January 28, 2026 at 9:07 am

    >Xi’s Military Meltdown

    Often overlooked is the fact that the leaders of major powers opposing the United States have limited options. Tolerating corruption weakens a nation and leads to its downfall. In order to strengthen its military, China must eradicate corruption within its most corrupt institution: the People’s Liberation Army. Xi’s “purges” of generals demonstrate his unwavering resolve to show no mercy, even to his allies. Reducing these actions to mere power struggles misses the fundamental point.

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    1. lyman alpha blob January 28, 2026 at 10:43 am

       The article mentions he is getting rid of older leaders and it occurred to me that maybe Xi looked at the elderly, sclerotic “leadership” in the US and decided he didn’t want China going down that route and did something about it because China’s political system allows him to.

       In the US we have techbros trying to take over everything, and those tasked with regulating them are so out of touch they think email is cutting edge. I could see why Xi would want to avoid that and bring in some younger leadership able to converse with the current tech business leaders in China and rein them in if necessary.

       That doesn’t explain why those currently being purged couldn’t have been quietly allowed to retire after being given a little nudge though…

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       1. PlutoniumKun January 28, 2026 at 12:14 pm

          China generally enforces retirement on older leaders. Zhang Youxia was an exception – Xi specifically asked him to stay on longer as previous clear outs had removed much of the most experienced higher levels in the military. The two go back a long way – their fathers were comrades. As you say, his removal was brutal and very public, this was far more than just getting rid of some dead weight.

          There is now a real problem at the higher levels of China’s military with a lack of experienced, seasoned leaders. Xi has done several culls of mid to high level officers, and there have always been questions about the quality of senior officers, as loyalty to the party has always been seen as more important than competence (in contrast, for example, to Vietnam, where the military has always had a less subservient role to the Party). It’s possible of course that he is bringing forward a new, highly competent and non-corrupt cohort of officers, but if there is any convincing evidence of this I’ve not seen it.

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14. mrsyk January 28, 2026 at 9:09 am

    PRESS RELEASE: It is 85 seconds to midnight, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’.
    AI is mentioned (emphasis mine),

    The Doomsday Clock time is annually determined by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board (SASB) in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes eight Nobel Laureates. Major factors in 2026 included growing nuclear weapons threats, disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), multiple biological security concerns, and the continuing climate crisis. The Clock’s time changed most recently in January 2025, when the Doomsday Clock was set at 89 seconds to midnight.

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15. Christopher Mann January 28, 2026 at 9:12 am

    Re: EU-India trade deal

    IT is cooked as a profession. If you know, you know. Anyone in healthcare knows that the quality of Indian healthcare workers varies wildly. I had a relative catch a nurse looking up how to insert a catheter on YouTube. Also impossible to verify agency nurses ID. Student visas will be unlimited. I recently interviewed a semi-literate Indian for a content creation role. ALL certs were fake and then he told me Indian English is the “greatest English in world” and that Irish people “very bad English”. I know for a fact that he will still find employment with an Indian-owned shop.

    The curse of Von de Leyen has struck again. Good luck out there, it will be tsunami of tshit if this deal goes through.

    Reply ↓
    1. Bugs January 28, 2026 at 1:46 pm

       Even internally at my evil multinational, no one takes anything listed in an Indian CV (I’m talking about lawyers) as truthful. You’ll see real howlers like long lists of high level experience in various arcane and unconnected areas of the law that are simply impossible to obtain based on the time scales of the career. But hey, if everyone in the country is in on the scam, just go with it until you’re at the upper levels of management in all the big companies, right? That said, there’s plenty of real talent in India and I see it all the time when working with colleagues or when I’m in India. Just not in the lawyers’ CVs I get!

       Reply ↓
16. The Rev Kev January 28, 2026 at 9:43 am

    ‘Science girl
    @sciencegirl
    A compilation of seals and sea lions being funny, playful, and effortlessly adorable’

    It may be that in the far distant future that you will have a sub-species of humans come about that will have gills in live in the seas and oceans. And if that ever happens, then I am pretty sure that seals will be their “dogs.”

    Reply ↓
    1. .human January 28, 2026 at 11:02 am

       A little too much Neal Stephenson there, Rev :-)

       Reply ↓
    2. Richard Price January 28, 2026 at 12:08 pm

       Yes, A merman I should turn to be…

       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STqIt30wt2M

       Reply ↓
    3. Lefty Godot January 28, 2026 at 1:18 pm

       Galápagos is Kurt Vonnegut’s riff on this.

       Reply ↓
17. Carolinian January 28, 2026 at 9:58 am

    This is good. Varoufakis. He’s very articulate.

    https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/is-the-new-world-order-really-new

    Reply ↓
18. The Rev Kev January 28, 2026 at 10:01 am

    ‘Volcaholic 🌋
    @volcaholic1
    The scale of this landslide is mind-blowing!
    About 1,500 people have been evacuated from Niscemi in Sicily after a landslide caused by heavy rain from Cyclone Harry tore through a hillside on the town’s edge.’

    This is crazy wild. They will have to abandon a large zone that parallels that cliff face and it could be a hundred meters or more deep meaning that tens of thousands of people are now homeless.

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19. Michael Fiorillo January 28, 2026 at 10:38 am

    The Welsh article states unequivocally that each Tomahawk missile contains five hundred ounces of silver, while the article cited to support that statement makes no such claim. It makes me question what the author says about everything else, even though I see similar claims elsewhere online.

    We do seem to be experiencing a price reset with silver, for various reasons, but like everything else these days, it’s hard to separate fact and reality from wishful thinking, carnival barking and wheels-within-wheels manipulation. Be very careful.

    Reply ↓
    1. micaT January 28, 2026 at 11:14 am

       31 pounds of silver, not a chance. Could be 500 grams.
       But mistakes like that usually make me discount the article in whole.

       Reply ↓
       1. mrsyk January 28, 2026 at 11:49 am

          Demon Slayers. Every warlord needs ‘em.

          Reply ↓
    2. vidimi January 28, 2026 at 1:08 pm

       from the first paragraph:

       The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM), made by Raytheon, is a long-range cruise missile for land attack, typically launched from U.S. and British vessels. Each missile contains a warhead, engine, fuel tank, guidance system, booster rocket, and of course, silver — up to 500 ounces, according to estimates.

       Read More: https://www.slashgear.com/1897698/tomahawk-missiles-silver-use-quantity/

       Reply ↓
20. BlueMoose January 28, 2026 at 11:31 am

    Could someone add some explanation regarding the link to Social Security and travel outside the US? I checked the linked article but it did not reveal (at least to me) what the problem/issue is. What should I be worried about? What should anyone be worried about? Is it related to people claiming a US address but living abroad?

    I have been living in Poland as a permanent resident and my wife (Polish) and I have not had any problems with our Social Security payments (direct deposit into a Polish Bank). The staff at the US Embassy in Warsaw have been nothing but helpful over the years.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post authorJanuary 28, 2026 at 12:32 pm

       I mentioned this to a friend who has colleagues who get SS in Europe and he said he heard the same thing.

       This is the brochure I found in a search but it seems out of date: https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10137.pdf

       This seems to be the issue:

       Under long-standing rules, SSI and Social Security recipients must self-report foreign travel that lasts 30 days or more. If you are a citizen, you may still be able to collect Social Security while residing abroad, but SSI is strictly limited to residents of the U.S. and certain U.S. territories

       https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-government-passes-surprising-tracking-170000003.html

       I never once had any “retire abroad” guide mention the reporting issue.

       If it is only reporting, that may not be so terrible, but I wonder if the intent is to kick retirees off the rolls for non-reporting and/or reporting at odds with border control records.

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       1. OIFVet January 28, 2026 at 1:14 pm

          These rules seem to apply mostly to recipients who are not US citizens and who are not receiving SS retirement payments on their own work record, or who are on SSI or SSDI payments. Form the SSA website (https://www.ssa.gov/international/payments.html?tl=0%2C1):

          “1. Can I receive Social Security benefits if I am not a U.S. citizen and I live outside the United States?
          Generally, we cannot pay Retirement, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefits to noncitizens after their sixth calendar month outside the United States. However, you might qualify for an exception, which could allow you to receive benefits without visiting the United States. If an exception does not apply, you must be physically and lawfully present in the United States for a full calendar month to begin receiving benefits. If you leave the U.S., we will stop your benefits the month after the sixth calendar month in a row that you are outside the country. You can make visits to the United States for specific periods of time, depending on how long you’ve been outside, to continue receiving your benefits.”

          It also depends on which country they reside in. Here is a screening tool (no need to enter SS number) that helps figure out how your personal situation affects your payment: https://www.ssa.gov/international/payments_outsideUS.html

          I did check since my mother (a US citizen) resides abroad and receives retirement payments to her US bank, but everything I see points to the rule affecting non-citizen recipients.

          Reply ↓
21. ProNewerDeal January 28, 2026 at 11:42 am

    Question for Yves/NC financial gurus: If the Limits to Growth scenario occurs, I wonder if an personal investing asset allocation (AA) with gold & silver will be key to mitigating USD negative real (inflation-adjusted, dividends-reinvested) return.

    If world GDP declines for a decade+, I guesstimate all or supermajority of stock indices would decline in real return terms. Already many stock indices like USA & India are very overvalued (pick your metric, Robert Shiller 10-yr CAPE, Warren Buffet Market/GDP, etc). OTOH, some currently are inexpensive like Australia Brazil. But even the inexpensive national stock markets could become expensive if the world GDP say reduces by 30%+ over 10 years.

    Long term sovereign bonds, like the US 30-yr Treasury index, were key for AAs in the 2008 GFC. But in Limits To Growth, it seems there would be secular high inflation, which would likely reduce the real return of all existing bonds.

    Gold & silver, with some of their demand being industrial as opposed to investing (personal, central banks, etc), would be among the Limited Resources that are Limiting Growth, and would be likely post real returns.

    Historical backtesting will not note this situation, as a major dire Limits To Growth scenario NEVER occurred yet globally during the capitalist era (1750? or 1900?-now) where both stocks & bonds were “mature”/institutionalized known financial assets that were widely owned by institutions and at least 20% of individuals (if including stock indices instead of individual company stock) in some developed nations.

    Is my reasoning valid here? What do ya think?! (c) Ed Schultz

    Reply ↓
    1. Steve H. January 28, 2026 at 12:22 pm

       In the Limits to Growth scenarios, it was not limited resources that caused collapse, it was pollution. They mentioned CO2 once, but didn’t have climate change as a major scenario. The costs associated with climate change are beyond comprehension or summary.

       Deflation is as likely as inflation. For the past: ‘The average Pacific Palisades, CA home value is $3,076,739, down 7.8% over the past year.’ Check back next month: ‘The average home value in Hatteras, NC is $506244, down 1.3% over the past year.’

       Reply ↓
22. DJG, Reality Czar January 28, 2026 at 11:55 am

    The article on U.S. government tracking Social Security recipients and their trips, plus the underlying article at Yahoo.

    It seems to me from the numbers given that the U.S. government is trying to target recipients of SSI. U.S. citizens have a recognized right to their SSA pension. But the U.S. government — you know, looking for welfare Cadillacs — makes it hard to get SSI and can even get crappy about survivors’ benefits. So they are the groups that are now being DOGEd.

    From the Yahoo Finance article underlying the MSN article : “Under long-standing rules, SSI and Social Security recipients must self-report foreign travel that lasts 30 days or more. If you are a citizen, you may still be able to collect Social Security while residing abroad, but SSI is strictly limited to residents of the U.S. and certain U.S. territories (3).”

    That reference 3 leads to this brochure, which all of us on SSA have downloaded for our own safety:
    https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10137.pdf

    I’m not sure where the enforcement of this new Purity Campaign is going to come from: DOGE already has gotten rid of SSA employees.

    Is this why ICE feels compelled to visit Italy for the Winter Olympics? A scandal now spreading endless joy among the Italians…

    Reply ↓
23. Jason Boxman January 28, 2026 at 12:06 pm

    Lyle McDonald has a diet based around protein, with no carbs, and very little fats, titled “Rapid Fat Loss”, which I’ve used with success while maintaining muscle and workout performance. It’s for a short term duration, at most a few months. As he’s written elsewhere, though, to lose weight a diet is successful if you’ve got a caloric imbalance. At a high level the rest is implementation details. Over longer periods there are consequences though, and it’s useful to know what those are. I’ve never tried Keto, I’ve stuck with what works. I prefer RFL to eating whatever I want with a severe caloric restriction; RFL is more palatable, I’m less hungry focusing on lean proteins and cooked vegetables.

    Reply ↓
    1. Yves Smith Post authorJanuary 28, 2026 at 12:11 pm

       What you were doing was keto. No or very low carbs is keto. You put your body in what is called a ketogenic state where it has to break down fats or protein to make blood sugar.

       You lose more weight on keto than on a normal diet because your body cannot make glucose as efficiently. If 3500 calories (with enough carbs for blood sugar making purpose) = one pound, it takes more than 3500 with no carbs to create the needed amount of glucose. Or your body can draw on stored fat but that is similarly inefficient.

       Reply ↓
24. XXYY January 28, 2026 at 12:22 pm

    Cat bullying dogs

    I read recently that female cats are much more commonly “left-handed” and male cats are much more commonly “right-handed.”

    I wonder if we are seeing evidence of that in these video clips where a cat bonks a dog 10 times in a second. The cats do seem to have a preferred paw for striking with, though maybe it’s just a matter of where the dog is or what it’s expecting, like a human boxer would do.

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25. Jason Boxman January 28, 2026 at 12:48 pm

    Garbage in, garbage out

    Researchers Are Using A.I. to Decode the Human Genome (NY Times)

    Dr. Salzberg of Johns Hopkins is less sanguine about AlphaGenome, in part because he thinks its creators put too much trust in the data they trained it on. Scientists who study splice sites don’t agree on which sites are real and which are genetic mirages. As a result, they have created databases that contain different catalogs of splice sites.

    “The community has been working for 25 years to try to figure out what are all the splice sites in the human genome, and we’re still not really there,” Dr. Salzberg said. “We don’t have an agreed-upon gold-standard set.”

    Reply ↓
26. mrsyk January 28, 2026 at 12:54 pm

    This video could be titled What dogs put up with, lol. I don’t know about the lefty/righty thing, but notice that no claws are used in most of those dustups.

    Reply ↓
27. flora January 28, 2026 at 12:56 pm

    Judge Napolitano and Max Blumenthal. utube, ~25+ minutes.

    Max Blumenthal : Venezuela at a Crossroads

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwCSOocvHKw

    Reply ↓
28. Alice X January 28, 2026 at 1:53 pm

    NYT

    Live Updates: 2 Federal Agents Who Shot Minneapolis Man Are Placed on Leave

    Okie Dokie then, Sheriff David Hathaway explained to Judge Nap yesterday how Federal non-investigations prevent local jurisdiction’s investigations and prosecutions.

    Wet noodles across the wrist will be the worst these two will likely experience.

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