[This Iran war update is again launching when not done because overly dynamic situation. I expect to be done by 8:30 AM EDT. I am also sure to be making additions in the midst as well as at the end, so if you are an early arrival, do refresh the page and reskim at that time]
I had mistakenly thought that Trump going on and on and on about US vassals not being sufficiently suicidal so as to join the US in trying pry open the Strait of Hormuz meant it was starting to dawn on him that the US was running out of non-hugely-self-destructive escalation options and might assuage his manhood with more terrorism. Wrong! The shockingly stupid move of someone, clearly not Iran, lobbing a missile at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, which appears to have done no real damage, and strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, which supplies roughly 80% of Iran’s electricity.
Iran promised a speed retaliation, identifying 5 energy infrastructure sites across the region. Its most consequential attack was on Qatar’s gas facilities, which experts say will take many years to repair. Aside from the damage to the world economy, this loss is catastrophic for Qatar.
Even with the mainstream media oddly taking not much not of Iran’s other strikes on energy infrastructure (I had also notice in real time how slow Bloomberg et al were to report on the big Qatar his), gas prices in the UK and Europe jumped. And remember, both were in an energy price world of hurt even before the Iran response. The current headline at the BBC live feed:
But even richer is the current Bloomberg landing page:
As we’ll unpack soon, Trump bleated on Truth Social that these strikes on Iran were not his doing, that Israel acted unilaterally. Barak Ravid of Axios reports otherwise:
John Mearsheimer, in a must-watch talk with Daniel Davis embedded below, observed before the retaliation wave launched, that Trump was sensitive to oil getting over $100 a barrel and that was why he was relaxing sanctions on Russian oil (Scott Bessent applied ample porcine maquillage, depicting it as for 30 days only and to let oil at sea get into the system).
The Bloomberg take on Trump’s de-escalation simply quoted from a Truth Social post, which we reproduce in full:
It isn’t much of a de-escalation if you are threatening to escalate. So Bloomberg and likely others are unduly carrying Trump’s water.
In a fresh entry on the Bloomberg live feed, Iran says it is continuing its attacks (emphasis theirs):
Iran is signaling more attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure are in the offing.
The Islamic Republic’s response to yesterday’s strikes on its South Pars gas field “is underway and not yet complete,” the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency cited a military spokesman as saying.
“If repeated again, the next attacks on your energy infrastructure and that of your allies will not stop until their complete destruction,” he added.
And even in the seemingly unlikely event that Israel did not get a green light from Trump, who is he trying to kid? The US is culpable because Israel relies on US satellite and other surveillance for targeting, and we have not cut that off.
Briefly back to the BBC live feed sightings:
Price of gas rises sharply in Europe and UK
QatarEnergy’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City on March 2
The price of gas has risen sharply following the attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex. In early trading it was up more than 25% on wholesale markets in the UK and Europe, before easing back slightly.
The price of gas in Europe is more than double the level seen before the conflict began.
And just below that:
UK gas prices soar more than 20%
UK gas prices this morning have soared over 20% after fresh strikes hit energy infrastructure in the Middle East, including Qatar’s main gas facility.
UK gas prices are currently up by 23% to 171p per therm.
The oil price is trading at around 5% higher, at $113 a barrel.
Two waves of Iranian strikes caused “extensive damage” at Qatar’s main gas hub, the country’s state-run energy firm has said.
Iran also seems to be continuing its attacks on energy infrastructure across the region. A recent entry in the BBC live feed:
Second Kuwaiti oil refinery attacked
A second oil refinery in Kuwait has been the target of a drone strike, according to the state-run Kuwait News Agency.
It says a drone struck part of the Mina Abdullah oil refinery, south of Kuwait City, resulting in a fire breaking out at the site.
It follows a reported attack on the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, just a few miles down the road, which resulted in a “limited fire” that has been contained.
A few hours ago, Simplicius gave an overview of the energy attacks as of then. From Things Go Haywire as Israeli Escalation Throws Iran Conflict into Dangerous New Phase:
This led to Iran immediately escalating with strikes against energy targets in both Israel and the Gulf, particularly hitting Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas hub said to be the world’s largest:
The strike was successful and was said to have done massive damage to the facility, which some experts are writing is irreparable.
Worlds most sophisticated gas processing plant, took 14 years to build
Source
Saudi Arabia likewise claims they “intercepted” several ballistic missiles headed to Riyadh.
Although Simplicius buys Trump’s Truth Social handwave (I do not), he is not alone in this line of thinking:
Israel is obviously escalating the conflict deliberately in order to ensure no off-ramp exists, and that US—and preferably its Gulf allies—commit to a total and decisive destruction of Iran.
Israel is doing this via two simultaneous strategies: first by eliminating all the “moderates” and rational people within Iran’s leadership to ensure that only hardliners remain who will push for maximum punishment against the region. And second, by crossing Iran’s “red lines” in hitting its most sensitive economic and energy sites in order to spur Iran’s retaliation against equally critical sites throughout the region to ignite as big a firestorm as possible which can engulf everyone and coerce the entire world into “finishing off” Iran once and for all.
In an important new talk with Glenn Diesen, Professor Marandi gives more details of Iran’s preparedness and potential responses.
Some key items: Marandi goes through what ought to be obvious from anyone who looked at a map: that even if the US were to succeed at Mission Impossible and open the Strait of Hormuz, Iran would still control the north side of the Persian Gulf and could destroy US vessels and unduly frisky tankers from there. Simplicius note in his post that the Strait of Hormuz had been empty for the preceding 24 hours.
In a brand-new update, Aljazeera confirms that Iran is attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which is leading to a bigger and bigger pile-up:
Marandi also said that Iran was producing more missiles, but not more drones right now, because its drone storage was jam packed. He also said Iran would be able to carry on the war for years.
Another important new discussion, albeit after the attacks on Iran and before its retaliatory strikes began:
Items that stood out for me included me include Mearsheimer stressing US impatience (a consequence of our limited military means), and his long-form discussion, with comparisons to Gallipoli, of how disastrous it would be for the US to attempt military operations to open the Strait of Hormuz. Daniel Davis also described how high the odds were of an embarrassing failure it would be for the US to try to snatch and remove Iran’s enriched uranium. In case you missed it, this idea really truly was getting consideration, see a New York Times spook whisperer David Sanger’s Trump’s Next Decision: Whether to Retrieve Iran’s Nuclear Fuel, Whatever the Risk from earlier this week.
Mearsheimer also points out that despite the Trump move to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian tankers, the EU, which enjoys trying to mess with them in the Baltic, is not playing ball. But again, Kaja Kallas’s brave words came before the new energy price spike.
This new talk from Janta Ka made me realize I had been a bit thick about the Iran reparations demand and its so-far trial balloon (the remark was only one official on CNN, and not in Iranian media) about having shipments through the Strait of Hormuz being paid in yuan, This seemed a big favor to do for China, since how does Iran benefit if the Saudis and Qataris pay in yuan?
I had assumed that the level of reparations would be so large that Iran would need to take a big piece out of the various sovereign wealth funds of Gulf States.
But charitably assuming the flows of oil and gas (and of course fertilizer) through the Strait resume and eventually get back to old normalish-levels (as in the infrastructure is not destroyed and we do not wind up in a global depression), the value of the transit through the Gulf is so large that Iran could charge a toll, say 10%, and get its reparations over time that way. Ff the entire payment is in yuan, Iran can find out via whatever the yuan payment processing is what was paid and assign a 10% toll. The video below includes an estimate that that could yield $70 billion a year:
But keep in mind trade transactions are not enough to dethrone the dollar, even ones as big as this. Trade in its entirety accounts for only 3% to 7% of all foreign exchange transactions. China would need to drop capital controls for the yuan to be see sufficiently safe for foreign investors to put large holdings in it. That is a monster impediment to the yuan replacing the dollar.
However…..the destruction of paper wealth on a mass scale would reduce the importance of the dollar in foreign exchange, since so much is related to investment. A depression would greatly reduce the level and value of financial asset trading.
To continue on the economic front. From OilPrice in $200 Oil No Longer Crazy Idea as Middle East Supply Collapses:
- Middle East oil exports and production have collapsed, removing over 7–10 million bpd from global supply and creating a severe physical shortage.
- Tight supply and limited storage mean prices could surge to $150–$200+ per barrel, with some analysts warning of extreme spikes if disruptions persist.
- Even if the conflict ends, recovery will be slow, and temporary relief won’t fully offset the shortage, keeping prices elevated….
Oil and fuel exports from the Middle East stood at 25.13 million barrels daily in February, Reuters reported this month, citing data from Kpler. By mid-March, this had plummeted by close to two-thirds, to 9.71 million barrels a day. Vortexa has even more worrying figures, putting the February daily average at 26.1 million barrels of crude and fuels, and the mid—March average at just 7.5 million barrels daily.
Yet even worse than daily shipments is the situation in production. Everyone in the Middle East is cutting oil production—and those wells take a while to restart….
Iraq has reportedly curbed oil production by some 2.9 million barrels daily, ING commodity strategists said in a note earlier today. In Saudi Arabia, the cuts are to the tune of between 2 million barrels daily and 2.5 million barrels daily. The UAE has reduced production by 1.5 million bpd, and Kuwait has slashed output by a reported 1.3 million barrels daily. That makes a total of over 7 million barrels daily gone.
For context, the International Energy Agency had predicted the oil market would this year be in a surplus of around 3.7 million barrels daily. Not only is that now gone—if it was ever here at all—but there is more supply frozen because of the crisis. Indeed, the IEA itself estimates shut-in production at 10 million barrels daily.
What all this means is that there is no physical oil to respond to demand. And when physical supply is tight, prices fly high and take a while to go back down if the situation normalizes, even accounting for the destruction in demand that high oil prices would inevitably cause.
Recall Iran promised oil at $200 a barrel. So far they have delivered on their promises
And let us not forget Axios in What $5 diesel fuel means for the U.S. economy (note AAA now shows the national average for diesel as $5.09, so a nickel higher than in the chart below):
>Most Americans have little direct exposure to diesel prices; gasoline-fueled (and, increasingly, electric or hybrid) cars are the norm.
- Many houses, especially in the Northeast, rely on heating oil, a close chemical cousin of diesel. Thankfully, spring is arriving.
- The indirect effects of higher diesel prices, however, are enormous, flowing through to essentially all goods, at a time when supply chains are already stressed by higher tariffs.
- Tractor-trailers, trains and many ships rely on the fuel, so the price of bringing virtually all goods to market has risen markedly in the space of a few weeks.
Between the lines: That isn’t likely to result in immediate price increases, but will shape the pricing decisions companies make in the weeks ahead — especially for heavy, bulky and inexpensive goods for which transportation is a large share of their total cost.
- That means that higher diesel prices could thus drive core inflation measures higher, not just the headline measures that include the direct cost of higher energy.
- The Federal Reserve will have a harder time looking through those price hikes if they show up in core goods, as opposed to just in retail gasoline or electricity prices.
We have heard rumors that gas rationing will be implemented in the UK but so far I see no confirmation. But it was seen as necessary even before the destruction of Qatar’s gas transit operations, per Independent on March 16: UK should brace for fuel rationing over Iran war crisis, former BP chief warns Starmer
Our H Alexander Ivey noted yesterday:
FYI, here in Sri Lanka, we already have gasoline rationing in place, complete with scan cards, companies registered for the amount of gasoline they can get, and the government declaring a 4 day work week to ease the problem – like to see the US or UK respond so quickly or as well. /snark).
On the kinetic front. Hindustan Times continues to track the punishment Israel is taking:
In Hebron:
Al-Manar correspondent details how Israeli forces were drawn into a prepared ambush in Taybeh after attempting a multi-axis advance from Khallet al-Dabsh and the Taybeh Project toward Al-Baydar Al-Faq’ani to encircle the town. pic.twitter.com/7ZcNGKkkg2
— Thomas Keith (@iwasnevrhere_) March 19, 2026
Things are not going well for the US and Israel in Iraq either. Note the demands of the militia:
To zoom out for a bigger picture vantage, Pascal Lottaz spoke to former Royal Navy commodore Steve Jermy. The talk includes very informative war nerdery, such as the implication of the loss of the US THAAD radars for how the US manages operations and how the belligerents can compensate:
From reader playa gold, not verified, but in the “big if true” category:
Finally, forgive me for only briefly mentioning some other big political stories, such as the shambolic performance of Tulsi Gabbard in a Senate hearing (you can find the key bits in the Daniel Davis talk above) and the Tucker Carlson interview of Joe Kent. With the Republicans having a majority in the House, even with Kent drawing blood of Trump and his Administration, this is still in the ‘death of a thousand cuts” category as opposed to a lethal blow. Given that Trump and this war was already deeply unpopular, it seems likely that durable impact of Kent’s resignation and his public appearances will be on the power of Israel in the US.
Wow.
Joe Kent just revealed the last thing Charlie Kirk said to him:
“The last time I saw Charlie Kirk on this Earth was in June, in the West Wing.”
“He looked me in the eye and he said … Joe, stop us from getting into a war with Iran.”
“One of President Trump’s closest… pic.twitter.com/dUcl3Etj0X
— Holden Culotta (@Holden_Culotta) March 19, 2026
Nevertheless, Larry Johnson laments how this interview reveals US ignorance of Iran:
Joe Kent’s interview with Tucker tonight was quite revealing. Joe went out of his way to praise Donald Trump — a wise strategy when dealing with a toxic narcissist — and tamped down his anger over the attacks being hurled at him by Trump loyalists That said, Joe demonstrated a woeful ignorance about the history of the region, especially with respect to Iran. He described much of his combat experience as “fighting against Iranian proxies,” apparently buying into the nonsense that groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda and Al Nusra were supported by Iran. While Joe served with four different elite units in the US Army and the CIA, I know from personal experience that most of the soldiers serving in those units didn’t know the difference between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
All for today! See you tomorrow!
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WRT the laundry fire in the aircraft carrier from yesterday (sorry for posting today, but I’m in Straya and my bedtime is about the same as your posting time), I have come to reflect on the differences in human perceptions of “acceptable inconvenience” now and in the past.
Consider a 74 gun ship of the line in the late 18th, early 19th century – ~600 crew in a leaky wooden ship perhaps 180 feet long with a dunny that consisted of a few holes in a plank slung under the bowsprit (the ‘head’) which all had to share in all weathers. Sleeping accomodation was a hammock for which fourteen inches per crewman was the standard (working two watches, the actual space per sailor off watch was twenty eight inches – I measure 27” from shoulder to shoulder and I can’t imagine sleeping in that sort of proximity). Commissions that could run into years away from home, an active press, not dissimilar to that seen in Ukraine these days, living on salt pork, salt beef and ship’s biscuit, with only a pint of rum a day to make it more tolerable.
Seems to me we have all gone soft…
As a bit of backround for the above, since my late teens, when I started crewing on a square rigged sailing ship, I became enamoured of Napoleonic era naval fiction, in particular the very well researched stuff by Patrick O’Brian. Since then I’ve done a fair bit of reading on the subject and have come to the conclusion that O’Brian was pretty well on the mark, certainly far more realistic that Forrester or Kent in that regard. If you haven’t read his stuff, I commend it to you – it’s certianly far more entertaining than reality today…
Closer to home, I heartily recommend Richard Henry Dana’s Two Years Before The Mast, complete with tyrannical captain and about 27 different types of sail (Top Gallant was my favorite named one) as he makes his way from Boston to California in the early 1830’s around Cape Horn.
It’s a beautiful period piece of the pre-Golden State~
seconded, if you know san diego it’s even better, quite the frontier tale
Thirded 🤓. Note this is not a book of fiction, but a true story written by a man who undertook this for health reasons. The foreword to the edition I read noted that it caused a bit of a stir on publication, and may have led to at least some improvements in regulations regarding conditions for sailors – at least under u.s.flags.
if I might add a nautical reading recommendation.
a true story that reads as an historical novel and that then turns into a horror story. Well researched and fascinating.
not a lot of softness
Were the press ganged men on those ships specialists with one of more degrees and/or multiple certifications? Were they promised something other than a year long deployment in substandard conditions? Did they have options? Because even navy reservists these days have a lot of options to do anything other than be on a failing ship for a year. Lastly, did those Napoleonic era crews you mention know that they were doing something wrong? Because many of these sailors disagreed with Midnight Hammer and also disagree with their operations to support Epic Fury. It is entirely possible that both the clogged toilet episode and the laundry fire were sabotage by sailors on board ship.
We are subjecting people to repeated deployments to support wars of choice. We’ve worn down their bodies and their souls by abusing their commitments. I would never suggest our modern armed forces is less hardy than past soldiers simply because they no longer suffer from scurvy and don’t choke down hardtack.
I don’t know how sailors thought of the wars they were pressed into, but the midshipmans knot (this of course may be just a legend) was called such because if the sailors threw the midshipman off the boat, he could pull himself back to the boat using the midshipman, which both binds and slips. This is just hearsay, but conflict between the officers and the crew did exist, as did the cat’o’nine tails and the noose. Martial Law.
The Royal Marines were on board British ships to keep order….
I’ll bet that if, hypothetically, the navy offered the ratings a choice between a ship with modern comforts fighting an unjust war and a ship with WW2 or worse privations fighting a just war, the modern ship would get filled first….
I believe that at least legally thee Press could only take actual seamen. LeMon3 will know better than I but it appears most navy crews were majority volunteers though at the height of the Napoleonic Wars this might not always be true.
If you were a seaman there were advantages to serving in the navy versus on a civilian ship. The pay was less but the food usually was much better and there was less work. A commercial vessel would want to minimize crew size; the navy wanted many more crew members to fight the ship.
The standard navy diet may not look like much to us but it may well have been better and more ample than that of many a farm labourer or day labourer in a city. It was three squares a day and don’t forget the grog.
‘Seems to me we have all gone soft…’
Yeah, nah. It is just that the technology changed. I once imagined a scene where a time traveler was telling Captain Jack Aubrey and his officers what Royal Navy ships would look like by the end of their century. The changes in armour, armament, propulsion and all the rest of it. Can you imagine? Look at modern seaman and the technical skills that they have to possess to fight their ship. Those Napoleonic sailors were extremely skilled with sail and cannonry – and my hat is off to them – but there came a point where those skills no longer mattered and new skills were needed.
“Rum, buggery and the lash”. Life in the Royal Navy was indeed harsh. Denied by him but attributed to Winston Churchill is the comment ” That the tradition of the Royal Navy consisted of nothing more than rum, buggery and the lash.” This along with reference to gays and military service is discussed in a publication from the Mariner’s Museum in Newport News, VA. https://www.marinersmuseum.org/2019/rum-buggery-and-the-lash . I’ve not been, but the museum seems worth a visit. I very much recommend visiting the Mystic Seaport museum in Mystic, Ct.
It’s “Rum, Sodomy and the Lash” at least according to my Pouges’ album.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZIISfOm3dI&list=PL68D998D2C9FC89B8
“Rum, bum, and the lash” is a prosodically memorable version.
Don’t forget Gilbert and Sullivan’s “HMS Pinafore.” A work curiously appropriate to today I’ll venture.
My grandma would refer to small spaces as ‘not enough room to swing a cat,’ which left my 5 year old self wondering if I could test this out by swinging our pet Michelina around by her tail. It was not until I read – and reread – Patrick O’Brian’s series that I found out what the ‘cat’ really was, and how it was used to maintain discipline in the British navy.
My grandpa referred to local ‘evil-doers’, as ‘d*mned buggers,’ and, again, it was in O’Brian’s books that I realized what a ‘bugger’ really did and what the punishment was for this pastime. And why I had my mouth washed out with Lifeboy soap for using this term to describe a pesky neighbor boy. ‘He hung from the yardarm’ was not just colorful sea-goinglanguage, but the result of being tried and convicted of this ‘sin,’ while serving on one of His Majesty’s ships.
life in general was harsh at the time. but sailors were better fed and cared for than the bulk of the population, say agricultural workers. they were well fed with “square meals” on square plates and 4,000 calories a day. poor food was the result of long times on station without being properly resupplied. not all were press ganged. there were many volunteers.
If you have a just course, … (Hamas, Iranians, also the astronauts, …)
Or if you pay people enough money, … (Some of the reality TVs, and the astronauts again.)
And in Economics, there’s a concept called “opportunity cost.”
If you want to suffer hardship so you can kill little girls of faraway countries, that, frankly, is not about anyone being “not soft”, … there’s no polite words for you.
Shame on those cowardly sailors.
Trouble is that the modern navy is a carreer choice, with the notion that you are their to defend the fatherland, not act as a muscle for genuinely cowardly ethnogenocidaires.
As for the rough living conditions, it’s more tolerable if the leadership is in the same boat (figuratively and literally). Or paraphrasing the principle, “leaders eat last”.
What you call soft, I call failure of morale. Take your pick for why it’s low. Poor leadership? Lack of belief in the mission? Broken promises? Too much *ullshit?
Many of those British sailors were desperately poor people coerced, press-ganged, shanghaied and routinely mistreated (see Linebaugh and Rediker’s *The Many-Headed Hydra’ which discusses the forms of mutiny and solidarity formed by such people aboard ship and in their travels to colonial settings where they saw how other fellow poor people were treated). Who knows were the OP even thought he was going with the post.
Other rumors of mutinous noises and a petition circulating at some US bases this morning, with forces questioning the mission and its legality. Can anyone confirm?
SIAP: https://michaelwalshwriter.com/2026/03/17/mass-mutiny-through-the-ranks-of-the-american-armed-forces/
While stuff like this might not catch on like prairie fire, it definitely can sap wider enthusiasm. . .
Careful, that might be a bogus story.
Umm…it appears the author of that website you linked to is a nazi (as in, he’s the author of numerous books praising Hitler)
LY: As for the rough living conditions, it’s more tolerable if the leadership is in the same boat (figuratively and literally).
Along those lines, to become a captain in the Royal Navy, you started as an 11 or 12 year old midshipman. Nelson was 12.
Plenty of those boys died in battle or otherwise. There’s a Kipling poem with the line: ‘We have fed our sea.’ No kidding.
Cool, looks like I can read those for years, given how slow a read I am. Thanks! (If this conflict doesn’t go nuclear, that is…)
See this book on the Jason Voyage by Tim Severin – https://www.amazon.co.uk/Jason-Voyage-Quest-Golden-Fleece/dp/0099461803
I’m the one standing upright, closest to the mast.
Looks like Iran is also targeting T owned luxury real estate in Dubai. From Due Dissidence, utube, ~41+ minutes.
Dubai’s Influencer Utopia Turned UPSIDE DOWN by Iran War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TvLcOWJiJ0
flora, you can’t do that without prior notice on what arqueologists will find digging in Dubai in 500 years.
I just can’t stop laughing.
Then the rest of the video is wow! I found it very interesting thank you.
Trump tower might go boom-boom shaka-lakalaka boom!
Hilarious clips starting at around 4:50 and onward. The Influencer and OF models beach evacuation is the best use of AI slop video I’ve seen in a hot minute. Thanks for lightening up another frightening day in news, flora.
I love the fellows at Due Dissidence. Good mix of comedy and serious critique.
I thought I was supposed to be mad at Iran for their treatment of women, not UAE.
/me confused
Shine, shine brightly, thank you🔥🐴🧲
Oh. Ma. Gawd.
Thank you!
I watched/listened to the WHOLE thing!
Truly a fine distillation of Western moral squalor.
Trump is reaching a high level of frustration because all the vassal countries refuse to send their ships into the Hormuz shooting gallery. And in a video that I was watching today, an Israeli official was also criticizing those countries as well. I got an idea.
All us vassal states could put together a naval squadron and would park it about 700 kilometers away from Hormuz like the US Navy has done. At that point, the Israelis could send a naval squadron of their own to go charging into that breach to show us how it is done. Since they caused this war it only seems fair and why should they not do what they criticize other countries for not doing. If they did this I would personally buy a box of popcorn for every commenter on Naked Capitalism while we watched how it played out.
All we need are latter day Lords Raglan and Cardigan (of the sleeves) to lead the fearless sailors:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
The Reason Why, first book I read in my first history class in college. As the publisher’s note says:
This history is a war story of astonishing courage and honor, of stupidity, of blood, death, agony — and waste.
Nothing in British campaign history has ever equaled the tragic farce that was the charge of the Light Brigade during the Crimean War’s Battle of Balaclava on October 25, 1854. In this fascinating study, Cecil Woodham-Smith shows that responsibility for the fatal mismanagement of the affair rested with the Earls of Cardigan and Lucan, brothers-in-law and sworn enemies for more than thirty years.
Some things never change.
To be fair, if it weren’t for this needless tragic loss of life, we would call Balaclavas ‘Bank Robber Hoods’ instead.
Funny, my history professor assigned that book as well. It was a mandatory writing intensive course and I enjoyed it a lot.
George MacDonald Fraser. Flashman at the Charge! From the Flashman Series. LOL!
Have some fun while learning history!
Ben Wallace – the failed UK candidate for head of NATO ( Biden said no ) was keen to mount a second charge for the (very ) Light Brigade .
https://en.topwar.ru/amp/192648-rossijskoe-minoborony-napomnilo-benu-uollesu-proishozhdenie-vyrazhenija-pushechnoe-mjaso.html
as the british army currently has only 25 serviceable tanks (compared with 500 horses) wallace might have something there. a 2nd charge of the light brigade might be one of the few options open to it. the charge could be mounted by the 207 generals in the army (or 208 if you count king charles.)
Trump’s blaming it to Israel looks as simple as trying to discharge some of the pressure he must be feeling. Very much like blaming his “allies” (man, you are not ally of anybody and nobody is your ally!) for not helping with the Hormuz partial blockade by Iran. This game of shifting blames between idiots is the new normal in the pathetic political landscape of the West.
It is pathetic. Who knows if any of it is accurate or not? I can imagine someone in the administration agreed to something and maybe Trump wasn’t actually informed about it. I can also imagine Trump raging and directing someone to execute that decision regardless of any objecting staff. We are where we are right now because all of our countries worst tendencies have been released. Worse, they’ve been encouraged by a delusional Israeli leadership.
The only way I can see this ending now is if the US actually betrays Israel and forces a situation in it that crushes it completely.
It’s just a rehash of the same tired lies from the ‘Biden’ administration; “Ohh look at all the discord with Israel! Biden’s getting angry at Netenyahu! Biden wants a ceasefire but the dastardly Israeli’s are stopping him!” etc etc ad nauseum. All the while they ship thousands of tons of munitions and endless money to Israel 2 years straight to help them commit genocide. “Aww shucks, we had no idea!” True kabuki.
I would be chuckling at the sheer brazen chutzpah of trying this same BS routine again, if it weren’t for the thousands of people being slaughtered.
agree completely, k harris would have been led down this garden path as well as she proved by scolding protesters that she was “speaking” when she ought to have been listening. We would just be hearing a different narrative of the same old tired tale of poor, misbegotten zion.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Kamala And Friends™ would have been exactly the same result, re:war with Iran. I mean, we have the receipts, it’s not like they were even trying to hide it: (October 12 2024) Harris to Jewish voters: ‘All options on the table’ to stop Iran from going nuclear
and
And on and on. Absolute scum, literally working hand-in-glove with foreign interests and pretending all these disasters are somehow in American interests. Even after this ends, if it ends in utter disaster they will foist the blame on Trump to deflect from their treasonous Israeli connections and jump right into bed with them once again when the dust settles. “Aww shucks!”
Let’s not forget her Herness who also vowed to attack Iran as POTUS – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtiJqng9jy8 She had to settle for trashing Libya as SecState instead.
These conflicts are bipartisan.
I find this whole issue of “what did Trump know” very disturbing. I’m assuming that Israel did not strike the South Pars gas field without the knowledge or complicity of the US/Centcom. So that means either (1) Trump ordered it in an impulsive reaction – which would be quite typical for him – and is lying to cover his f**k-up (also typical); or (2) Trump actually did *not* know about the strike in advance, so this seriously escalatory action was allowed by our national security apparatus behind his back. Either one is scary. And with either scenario my mind is silently yelling: “Aren’t there *any* sane people left in the administration or military or intelligence community with any influence on policy? As the Simplicius post emphasizes, Israel clearly wants to eliminate any conciliatory options in promoting total war. Do our own military “experts” actually want this as well?
Door #3: Trump’s brain has become pudding and by the time news of the strike became public, he honestly believes he had nothing to do with it and it came as a surprise to him. I find this as likely as anything else.
Or Trump just didn’t get to the part of the briefing where they informed him because that stuff is boring and he has the attention span of a gnat.
At the very least, barring even more egregious incompetence than we’ve seen so far, US Command was informed at some level, because allied air forces need to do that in order to avoid any unfortunate encounters in the corridors being used for the missions
Recall how Rubio explained how the war started. He told us how the USA allows Israel’s finger on the trigger of its enormous war machine. So for me the question of the proximal cause in decision making yesterday, who knew exactly what and when about the attack on South Pars and what they did or didn’t agree to, isn’t as important as the question of the ultimate cause, why the USA allows Israel such a level of influence, to let them start our war with Iran for us. This state of affairs has existed for a long time and I infer therefore it must have been reviewed often and is always approved. Pearl Rangefinder’s comment just above shows how Harris and the Dems pledged not to change anything in these arrangements.
That’s the very disturbing thing for me to consider. We’ll do anything we can for that eastern Mediterranean death cult up to and including letting them lead us in war with Iran that may lead to the destruction of a quarter of the world’s energy production capital.
This relationship is so interwoven, even if Trump did stop shooting, we’re not going to stop supporting Israel as they keep shooting. Trump lost control over the bus here, and we’re heading right off a cliff.
Ignacio: With regard to the Trump tweet, Singing the Anger of Israel (hmmm, Trump goes Homeric):
Given the other Truth Social twixts we have read here at Naked Capitalism, I have my doubts that Trump was in charge of this one.
Stylistically, it is missing the usual inappropriate Caps on Words every Which Way he likes.
The language includes expressions that just don’t smack of Trump: “in which instance” “a very innocent” “in no way, shape, or form”
These all strike me as expressions favored by over-educated forty-ish ideologues.
So (1) either Trump was forced into writing this twixt by committee, or (2) he isn’t doing as much on Truth Social as we have come to expect. I’m reminded of other recent rhetorical messes that have focus-group checking slathered all over them: Hillary Clinton and “deplorables” and “inflict pain.” Kamala Harris and “I’m speaking.” In short: Is that you J.D. Vance?
The twixt is propaganda by what Naked Capitalism has often described as an elite lacking in confidence. Or as an Italian writer put it in an essay published here about current foreign affairs, Americans acting as ever as if they know everything when it turns out they don’t know anything.
I also thought the post out of the ordinary in literary style and must have been written not by his usual drafters. But what does this tell us that we didn’t already know? Indeed Yves said it back in February well before the 28th: Israel is in charge. Israel got to start the USA’s war with Iran, as Rubio confirmed, and Israel gets to escalate to this new phase of destroying energy infra.
I got the same impression. Way too coherent and legalese sounding.
Prolly put Trump in timeout.
I can’t wait for “Iran-linked hackers” to do a massive cyberattack on Truth Social that knocks them offline for a few days. The silence would be deafening. Heavens, where would our daily quota of lies come from?? (I know Israel could easily pick up the slack, but maybe Iran could keep them too busy for that, so we could experience blessed relief for a day or two anyway.)
Yeah, that’s the sense I get also….
The degree of coordination between the two countries wants intensive study, incl the question of whether the US military or command has any veto-power at all. Could reveal a lot, esp. historically. For instance, Khalidi’s The 100 Years War on Palestine says that they US was quite aware in real time, of the Sharon-led massacres at Sabra and Shatila.
I see, per the paper of record (lol),* that Israel has already insisted that Trump knew the attack was coming.
*which quietly led the charge piling on Iran in the run-up, ed staff now trying to flee the wreckage. . .
you have to be fairly gullible to believe anything trumpy says. he has totally defeated iran. he is defeating iran. he will defeat iran. he doesn’t need any help to defeat iran. he needs help to defeat iran etc. etc. etc.
Me thinks that we may see a return of the concept of the household “Victory Garden”, though perhaps the modern framing will be “Subsistence Garden”.
An internet search from years ago has stuck in my memory — urine and wood ash make a decent fertilizer for tomatoes.
Here’s the sole “hit” on the subject at PubMed
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19645508/
This is only an abstract, but it should be possible to compute the urine application rate from the stated application rate of 135 kg N per hectare. (I recall from other reading that one is advised to substantially dilute collected urine. It might also be helpful to cut back on salt consumption if one is accustomed to heavily salting one’s meals). Ash application rate may require additional research, depending on the kind of wood.
Nitrogen fertilizer seems certain to become more expensive (IIRC, it got pricey during the supply chain disruption phase of the CV pandemic in 2020, too) but urine will remain plentiful (perhaps with less Nitrogen content austerity compels a scaling back of protein consumption) and those who can may be supplementing home heating with firewood. The materials for this DIY fertilizer should be reasonably plentiful.
Thanks for this Samuel. I agree that Victory Garden branding doesn’t suit the present moment. How about Resistance Gardening? I find that growing, harvesting, preparing, and storing fresh garden produce is invigorating (in part because it gets me outside and abreacts doom scrolling.) These deserve to be life skills imo. But to garden effectively and restore soil fertility, biomass is required i.e. lots of compost. If woody materials are on your property, burning it and charging it with water or urine is another fertilizer strategy. Called biochar, it’s gaining a lot of attention, tho permaculture has long embraced this Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK). To avoid leeching soil nutrients, biochar should be composted before applying to garden beds.
Tell it like what it most likely will be and call it a Defeat Garden.
Or maybe an Affordability Garden? Since we may all come to value tomatoes that cost only $20/lb…
Food for thought. One can even imagine that livestock populations might boom if manure production becomes much more important. And hiring a yard service might start to involve traveling sheep flocks if fuel gets crazy high. Think about how much fuel we spend maintaining a hundred million lawns. Yet our fashion for lawns originally came about from those around manor houses, and they had lots of animals to keep the things trimmed down.
Lawns originated in France where rich lords would hire poor suckers to cut the lawn by hand. A bigger lawn meant you were richer then the next guy and could afford more peasants to keep the grass looking nice.
Shortly after this discovery another French invention became popular, the guillotine.
We here in the US can only hope.
We put in for a whole bunch of potato starts before this conflict erupted, happy we did so, and have decided to grow tomatoes for canning again despite labor being hard with two littles. N fertilizer not a problem thanks to hens, and P not a problem thanks to wood burning. Glad we’ve been practicing for the past 7 years!
Could you expand the comment a bit? I have the hens and we compost. I have a wood stove and expect it to get much more use in the near future.
the chicken poop is a good nitro source. our garden compost is the chicken poop, the shavings, coffee and banana peels from the house, and end of season clean up from the garden. add the wood ash (and remnants of the bonfires from burning brush) and its a great, complete compose. We could do better with adding grass and leaf matter, but its not worth it for the labor given the easy pickings from the garden
pro-tip:put the little ones to work. make turning over compost a game, etc. eat tomatoes right off the vine, hands free, like a fucking dinosaur.
they always love to help with the berry harvesting. this is the first year we’re willing to let the littlest, 2, into the garden, before now the dino action just resulted in tramped plants!
More than that, food sovereignty is how we will survive. Communities and regions that can feed themselves, and are now preparing, will fare much better than (for instance) the third of the country that lives on vegetables from the San Joaquin. We all live in food deserts, truth be told.
See:
https://viacampesina.org/en/what-is-food-sovereignty/
This, btw, is the world’s largest social movement org, completely ignored here.
The state of Maine has a FS ordinance; Porto Alegre is a FS city.
Urine is not garden ready – it will burn the plant roots without composting. I prefer to leave chicken manure (50% urine) for 6 months before adding it to the soil. That said, a cupful of fertilizer is the equivalent of about 50 pounds of chicken manure – particularly in terms of speed. Sorry, but there is a reason modern highly productive agriculture is able to feed the population while employing a percent or two of the population.
i leave the hay bedding in chicken houses for a year(laziness, cripplehood, unpleasant, etc)
urine needs to sit in a jug or something for a few days before it is applied, and then only to rootzone(see:anna edey)
with the former, charcoal and wood ashes and abundant rotted manure, and yer good to go.
locate your nearest horse people.
because horseshit is the best.
also, spent coffee grounds should go into the garden, not the trash.
waste not, and all.
Coffee grounds also keep the ants away…
Just picked up a piece on the Russian Rybar in English telegram channel, entitled ‘its not just about oil’.
A fairly detailed piece about how easy it would be for Iran and the Houthis to cut the internet cables going into the Gulf and up the Red Sea. The consequences for global communications would be substantial apparently.
Oh my. Hadn’t thought of that.
They could also blow more pipelines very easily at the moment when oil is already at a fever pitch to really send the markets into a tizzy. Since economic warfare is their (winning) strategy, I bet they have some more well timed attacks coming when the market wants it least. They have so many cards we probably haven’t thought of, and thanks for sharing it’s an obvious one for the list (after you hear it).
They have to play those cards very cautiously.
With all the talk about fuel / food / chip inflation in Western countries, the ones that are really being whacked by the economic impact of the war are to be found primarily in Asia and Africa. And they do not just have to contend with a growing physical lack of oil, gas, fertilizers, sulphur, or helium, the war has further consequences that are of no import to Western countries, but prove devastating for those countries: e.g. collapsing remittances from workers in the Gulf States.
At some point the pain in Asia and Africa may become so unbearable that those continents may well turn against Iran and Yemen, accusing them of being “irresponsible”. Of course, the USA, the EU, and even Israel will do plenty of prodding to arrive at such a state of diplomatic affairs.
Remember that Iran was completely isolated in the recent vote at the UNO about the war. How long will Russia and China quietly support Iran with military and technical means if the entire world sours on the Persians?
They are next (as announced by the US again and again and again).
Perhaps the world will sour on the US. After all the US doesnt make anything, and has no military industrial base (without rare earths).
More likely, most countries will decide to get nukes, and next US colonial adventurism will end in the joys of nuclear war.
Specifically the Turkish one feeding israel and the 2 saudi pipes across the peninsula, 5 and 2 mbd. The latter easy enough, eastern pumping station just across the gulf from Iran. Can’t miss it.
Both Iran and Israel have vowed to destroy the world rather than allow their own nations to be destroyed, and neither shows any sign of backing down. In other words, we are now closer to global annihilation than we were during the Cold War.
When did Iran say that, or do you mean the retaliatory strikes that they make after their infrastructure has already been damaged?
Steady on there with the false equivalency: Israel will indeed try to destroy the world in furtherance of their lunacy; Iran will quite rightly destroy the Western World in their defence.
This is false. Asia is first in the line of fire. Sri Lanka, India, Vietnam, Thailand and the rest of Southeast Asia are hit harder and faster by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz than the Western world. We are looking at drug shortages within a very few months.
Poor countries, meaning pretty much all of Africa, will also be very hard hit by more costly energy and fertilizer shortages.
Agreed. Here in Phuket Thailand there was an initial rush to gas up cars, scooters, cabs, buses etc but was just there today to fill some gas cans and there were no crowds. However in the rural areas – farming areas the queues are hours long until the pumps run dry.
Thailand subsidizes prices and they are running a budget deficit in doing so. Not sure how long they will be able to keep doing that. They are reaching out to Russia (thankfully) and have already cut exports to Vietnam ( who is hurting). Laos is hurting as well.
Maybe Thailand will become a full BRICS member this summer.
BRICS meeting will be interesting to say the least. India is hosting. Ugh!
I expect China, Russia, and Iran to apply some pressure on Modi. Of course who knows what Modi is thinking. Probably graduated from the same school as Erdogan. Going to have to chose sides one day.
BTW Thanks for posting the Two Majors item. Have not been able to find anything yet to verify. They focus on the SMO primarily and are pretty accurate and objective IMHO.
Understand you were actively trading during the Thai Baht crisis. Me too.
Ahh LTCM don’t get me started!! Was recruited out of college in 1990 by Nikko Securities of Japan. Actually an investment bank newly formed by them and WFC based in San Francisco.
We handled corporate pension plans.
Ended up as laison with SF Fed Res Bk.
Then traded on my own with a couple former CBOT pit traders during the Internet craze.
Now just long term investing. Too old and too smart to trade successfully against the MMs on a daily basis.There is a reason why its mostly blue collar guys in the pits. Too much thinking is not an asset.
I do commodities for the most part now. Money to made there for sure.
Anyway sorry for the lengthy post. No need to reply as I am sure you are busy. Great work on your site. I stumbled upon it a few weeks ago. Some good folks here.
Keep up the good work.
Thanks for the local reporting. I always appreciate reading that kind of thing.
same here
Maybe Iran will get some targeting data from its allies all aimed at Israel.
Iran should (if it hasn’t already done so), turn to inflicting its most serious pain on Israel, with day and night attacks. To the extent that Gazans depend on the desalinization plants, leave them (and Dimona) alone. Everything else should be fair game.
I think it is doing that but in a more boiled frog manner.
I think that Gaza gets it’s drinking water from wells . A few years ago I read an article which stated that Israel was stealing water from Gaza’s aquifer by using obliquely angled wells .
I get up in the morning on Trump Social, sir
So that every excuse from my mouth can be fed
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
My allies and their navies they packed up and leave me
Daringly said, they were nowhere to be seen
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
Well, it wasn’t me, Qatar gas refineries are gone
I don’t want to end up like Richard Milhous Nixon
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
And after a missile storm there must be a calm
They catch me in my lies, you sound your alarm
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
I get up in the morning on Trump Social, sir
So that every excuse from my mouth can be fed
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
My allies and their navies they packed up and leave me
Daringly said, they were nowhere to be seen
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
Well, it wasn’t me, Qatar gas refineries are gone
I don’t want to end up like Richard Milhous Nixon
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
Wasn’t me, it was the Israelites
Israelites, by Desmond Dekker and the Aces
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wSXTN2EfRo&list=RD0wSXTN2EfRo
Nice catchy tune to stick in my brain today.
Original song was a theme in the movie Drugstore Cowboy, one of my dark twisted favorites.
absolute kudos –
from the end of the road at Banana Shout –
Negril a short hop back down da coast road man –
tank you –
immediately thought of Jimmy Cliff and “The Harder They Come” –
great flick and absolutely best sound track – whole flick free on youtube –
here’s one i hum frequently – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twf7LhQIBkQ
Rabid warmongering on the NYT editorial page:
There’s Only One Path to Victory in Iran
The second criteria seems to imply seizure of Iranian territory. This is implicit boots on the ground. Where are those willing bodies/cannon fodder going to come from? They can be conjured out of thin air in a matter of weeks or even months.
Field Marshalls of NYT!
“Necessary targets” destruction of which are “sufficient” to do what? I doubt Hegseth can answer, much less whoever is directing Bibi and Trump.
Establish “control of the Strait of Hormuz.” This requires an airmobile land force sized by LBJ for 1967 Vietnam, all the A-10’s flying from fields in UAE, with all USMC Cobra attack helos. Desert Storm build up in hostile fires.
That is about 4 years to mobilize while Iran gets ready to whack anyone within 300 klicks of Hormuz.
One of the big lessons i had to digest from the russia-ukraine war is that it is IMPOSSIBLE to stop a war when both sides are telling themselves they’re winning.
Clearly, this problem is also present in the US right now.
Yesterday Alastair Crooke posted some feelers from the Hebrew press suggesting that Netanyahu is now looking for a way to spin his way out of this.
https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/netanyahu-concedes-on-total-victory
Your link is to an op-ed so perhaps NYT can alo give Bibi some space for his “just kidding about the whole thing” announcement.
Yes, I was remiss for not including that. I had intended to just take a transcript of that section; most of the rest of his talk was a reprise of themes familiar to readers here.
I read this as not Netanyahu retreating but moving the goal posts so as to be able to still claim the war against Iran was a worthwhile enterprise. But Crooke did a great job of making clear how strained his claims were…not just one but several.
Do we even know where Netanyahu is or whether he is still in charge of Israeli actions? Some of us see him as being a completely cynical actor similar to Trump in that respect. In the past his warmongering has often been seen as little more than an excuse to keep himself in power and out of jail.
So, it could be complete coincidence, but his son went back to tweeting full bore after being 100% offline for the same duration as sitting Shiva.
Is the fruit of the poisonous tree still abiding in sunny Miami? Perhaps some intrepid reporter should go ask him about it.
and all the mirrors turned backward – must have been tough for the scamp – had to break loose – (sarc)
A few elements of this editorial really stood out to me. First, the author Mark Montgomery “is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,” which is one of the leading Zionist “think-tanks” in Washington. So he is basically a neocon mouthpiece. But second, his discussion of how we would wrest control of Hormuz is, in my admittedly non-military opinion, completely unrealistic. He cites the use of US convoys to protect shipping in the Gulf during the Iran-Iraq war – but his example, and almost his entire discussion, concerns the use of and defense against mines. He is able to do this because he simply assumes that we can take out all of Iran’s drones and missiles that threaten traffic in the Strait with air power. Montgomery is also “a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral” who was part of this “convoy” operation 40 years ago. So… an “expert” of the type that seems to have all of Trump’s attention these days. Let’s see if there are other “experts” who raise questions about sending in those ships (and troops?).
Houthis ran off two USNavy carrier groups, who enjoyed un contested ground based air cover from Djibouti!
Iran off the strait is more geologically diverse than Yemen!
They believe 2026 Scud hunting works.
Follows hard on the heels of their Brett Stephens “how grand it all is” editorial.
Prices got jacked up in the ’22- ’23 period and have not retreated much. Corporations got used to inflated profits. I guess it’ll happen again…
All done! Please refresh your browsers and re-skim.
A sense of goings on inside Wall Street…
For the most part, everyone is MSM-captured at mid- and senior-level management. There is some noticeable confusion from those types about why we haven’t just ended this already. Last week, a senior guy was recounting a golf course meeting with a highly placed general, recently retired, who assured him that US tech was “at least 30 years ahead of what they’ve got.” That gives you a sense of it.
Inside my shop, we have been getting daily missives from our energy trading desk about the war. The tone has shifted markedly from “this should be over soon” and “don’t see how Iran can sustain against the combined might of US/Israel” towards the realm of “the sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could wreak havoc” and “we think Trump will soon seek an off ramp.”
Myself, I’ve been telling everyone in my little corner of the office that the LNG situation is precarious given (1) the number of tankers bottled up in the gulf is a large proportion of the global fleet (2) LNG has lower stockpiles and less marine infrastructure to support it than oil and (3) the gas field shared between Iran and Qatar is the most easily accessed escalatory lever, and as this drags on, someone will be tempted to use it.
I did not expect it to happen this quickly. I expect this will sharpen the focus a lot of minds in the energy markets today.
Thanks for that report. You would hope that in the coming months there would be mass firings of mid- and senior-level management for failure to see the obvious but I can’t see that happening. Just don’t speak the truth too loudly. Remember what happened to Cassandra?
I thought these were the most savvy, cynical, smartest guys in the room. This conflict isn’t rocket science. Maybe it’s another casualty of enshitification.
Related to this, with all eyes looking at energy flows, take a good look around your living room, fridge, car, and inside your kitchen garbage bag. As was pointed out in links yesterday, plastic is in every conceivable process chain. Plastic consumes about 8% of global crude oil. Everything is made from plastic, or with plastic, stored in plastic, or protected by plastic. Just follow plastic through any manufacturing plant, it’s in the tools, it holds the raw materials, it’s in the employee’s lunch bag and the washroom’s dispensers. Plastic is practically meta in our society when or as the wheels come off.
Regarding the impact of rising oil prices, its derivative products, and “pricing decisions”, certainly the largest US corporations have the ability to absorb costs since profit margins are near all-time highs; however, the majority of firms (SMEs) have no choice really–it’s raise prices or go bankrupt. Maybe the only hope for US is for him to TACO?
I realized yesterday that Trump lies so obviously and constantly, his speeches and posts on Truth Social are so incoherent and subliterate that he could get pretty deep into dementia and it would be very hard to notice. Did Israel attack the South Pars gas field without his approval? Did he simply forget the conversation occurred? Is he lying? Did they actually not tell him?
Then there’s that whole statement about talking to former presidents when all four came out to deny it. Once again, is he lying like usual? Is he deluded enough to think he actually talked to one of the ex presidents? Has he lied so profusely that the first casualty of his dementia is the inability to remember which things he remembers were made up and which ones aren’t?
There’s no way to know.
Roquentin, 47 confirmed the decision with 45 dontcha know!
For Trump the gut, and his is substantial (if largely adipose baggage), knows, or thinks it knows, all. He goes far beyond Reagan’s “facts are stupid things” (which Reagan quickly corrected). For him lies are smart things. He lives by them. What’s that proverb about swords? And the one about fooling all the people all the time?
I lean toward a lifetime of habitual, reflexive, outrageous lying. Most won’t call him on it; the few who dare he can bully and insult into withdrawal or groveling submission. With that baseline it’s hard to differentiate his SOP from cognitive decline or, to borrow a phrase from a longtime Trump watcher, s***house-rat insanity. Ladies and gentlemen (if that’s not too reductive), place your bets.
‘RUSSIA JUST CHANGED THE US-IRAN WAR AND NOBODY IS READY FOR WHAT COMES NEXT !!!’
Frankly I found that tweet to be somewhat deluded. Did they mentioned that the US helped kill tens of thousands of Russians by supplying intelligence, training, financing and weaponry to the Ukraine for the past four years? This is payback, big time. Should Russia abandon an ally and see a US Navy base being built on the Caspian sea? I think that the Russian idea is that if the US suffers a strategic defeat and depletes its weapons stocks, that it will not be so prone to rampaging around the planet attacking country after country for the next coupla years. Though hesitant at first, I think that the Chines have come to the same conclusion as they know they they are next on the menu.
Rev Kev: Thanks. You are ahead of me on the obtuseness of that Xitter.
Two things: We all know that the U.S. of A. and the U.K. have been running the Ukraine war down to a micro level, as in, how much bribery is acceptable. Does the Anglosphere truly believe that the Russians were buffaloed? I’m so old I remember when Blinken let himself be dragged into Veterano Pizzeria of Kieva for the fascistopeperoni delights:
https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-05-23-blinken-ukraine-pizza-joint-nazi-symbols.html
… but the Russians didn’t notice that either, eh.
Second: Tactically, for the Russians, this is an obvious move. Surely, the many many generals in the U.S. armed forces would have thought about this eventuality. Surely?
“In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field”
Extremely curious phrasing, so up until now their consent was required?
Irony Dome is now up and functioning in Israel, with the capacity to ward off incoming missiles, brickbats & drones, by sheer will.
I should think that by next week Iran can ease up on the missiles and go with massive swarms of drones. The air defenses should be pretty much exhausted by then, if we trust Larry Johnson’s estimates back when the (latest) war kicked off. Not sure if Iran has many of those FPV drones, but, if so, they could go IDF hunting till the season closes.
Jay Powell plans to “retire in place”:
https://thehill.com/newsletters/business-economy/5790759-powell-im-not-leaving/
No longer any rate cuts priced in for 2026:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4566345-fed-rate-cut-no-longer-priced-in-for-2026
Tantrum incoming … hide the china and breakables.
Apologies, this should have been posted in “morning links.”
Although, arguably relevant to the Iran war as the higher oil and fertilizer prices have no doubt helped to put the Fed on hold for the foreseeable future.
Just wanted to give a big thumbs up to Yves for her daily briefings. Nowhere else can you find details of the Iran war distilled in such an excellent format. Three cheers Yves!
Aaaw!
Yves, Near the beginning of your analysis about whether Israel attacked unilaterally you say that “axios reports otherwise” followed by a tweet from Barak Ravid that doesn’t seem to be what you intended. Perhaps you intended a tweet from axios?
Ravid is an Axios reporter
https://www.axios.com/authors/barak_ravid
Admittedly it would have been tidier to quote Ravid from his piece at Axios than Twitter:
https://archive.is/1p9Av#selection-707.169-755.25
When two sources who are both known to lie consistently contradict each other, how does one know who is telling the truth?
Nice! The war became a philosophial endeavour too. Put your brains into the liar cycle.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/liar-paradox/
This is the Cretin Paradox.
The answer to your question is to discount both answers as attempts at misdirection and look for the actual, often different, question which the remarks seek to bury. With statements by self-interested parties it is not the content of the replies that is key but how that content fits the larger context.
Trump must have thinking that, well, we blew up Nordstream and Germany did nothing, so why would Iran care if we blew up South Pars?
Sorry I see this was the wrong tweet. Rajiv had a tweet which replied to the tweet above that denied what Trump said. I got the Truth Social tweet and not the conversation. Fixing.
Regarding the effects of diesel fuel prices, heating oil doesn’t just fuel heating. Many older systems in my neck of the woods also heat their water that way year round. So spring may mean the worst inflation from cost rises will be missed, but there will still be pain on that front.
But the effect on goods…I dread the shock on food prices. And that is even before fertilizer prices go through the roof.
I fully believe that the propaganda will not save this war. Sure the Republican base has been holding on and supportive but as the cascading damage from this self inflicted massive wound gets harder, even impossible, to ignore that will change. By the end of the year the economic fall out, reputational loss, and yes the dead coming home will destroy the Trump administration. Unfortunately taking out the head, in this case Trump, will not actually change enough. Yves talks a thousand cuts, but honestly most of those currently inflicting the cuts are just getting to the front of the parade. The so-called opposition has been about as oppositional as marshmallow fluff. Because they really only oppose the failure not the attitudes and choices and alliances that allowed it to happen.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/9u2e4ABIe2E
Here we have Vance trying to convince everyone that it’s only temporary and that other people overseas will and do have it worse. I’m not sure this is encouraging messaging
This only ends, as compared to stops, when regeime change happens. As legend has it,
The regeimes that require changing are the US and Isr. I only hope that the new regeimes are better than the existing ones.
That is correct. Also, as more facilities have shifted to using NG, service pressure and supply become challenges during peak use. Which is why many larger institutions have to have a store of alternative fuel in case their NG provider requires them to switch off. Large boilers and other such equipment have these kind of “flex fuel” options where switching from fuel oil to NG and back again is not difficult. These kinds of requests from utilities tend to occur around the holidays and summer. So even if a system nominally uses NG, it may still assume reliable access to fuel oil.
Make it make sense -Scott Bessent edition
Per Guardian blog
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may “unsanction” Iranian oil that is already being shipped, as he tried to allay concerns over the rising price of oil amid the war.
“In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days as we continue this campaign,” he told Fox Business.
—
Full Bessent interview (video/Fox Business)
I see this as another admission against interest.
Nobody would pay for a tanker full of sanctioned oil to just sit out at sea. Those barrels were likely headed for China, or perhaps North Korea. Likely “dark fleet” tankers, whatever that means.
For Bessent to claim that the US can just magically wave a magic wand and re-direct them to other countries is likely another big, fat lie, probably meant to jawbone markets. It also undermines the notion that sanctions were doing anything other than sending cheap oil to China.
Good news! I woke up this morning and it’s 1984. We get a redo on the last forty years, maybe we can chart a course with longer legs this time.
US detects drones over base where Rubio, Hegseth live, Washington Post reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-detects-drones-over-base-where-rubio-hegseth-live-washington-post-reports-2026-03-19/
That’ll be a boon for Trump Jrs.:
Defense Stock Alert: Trump Family Enters Booming Defense Tech Race with New Drone Startup
Dated March 9, 2026…
Barak Ravid is really shameless, eh? He was the one who announced the attack on South Pars was orchestrated with the US. Now he barefacedly reports on Trump’s denial without a single mention to his previous announcement. He should at least have told another Axios grunt to report on the denial.
And what I hate the most of all this is that so far the explanation of “break the Old World for China to deal with while we retreat into Fortress America”, seems to make some sense. Mind you, I don’t mean that the conflagration was aimed as containing China: I agree that Europe is gonna be much more affected than China, and the latter has its own problems already. But the idea that the best way to preserve the US’s present dominance is for the Old World to become less functional while the US tends to “its backyard” is at least not completely delusional.
The problem is that I live in said backyard and I see the Shield of the Americas coming. And with half of Latin America in the hands of Millei-type grovelling nutters, it appears that if the US can get out of the ME mess in one piece, they’ll succeed in putting a yoke on LatAm for many years. Especially if Bolsonaro’s son wins the Brazilian election this year. Our comprador elites will be all too happy to harness the productive forces of our countries to supply commodities to the US for peanuts so long as they get to keep cavorting around the US jet set. And the Latin American left has been back-footed for decades now.
My only hope is that the US might find itself in social upheaval mode after this debacle. I don’t see the preconditions for a full-fledged popular revolution to happen there given the total demoralisation of the US left, so a slide into full-blown fascism (the Mussolini definition, corporatocracy) is more likely, but I’d love to be wrong. Major establishment ruptures normally happen after a failed military adventure, and an economic crisis also helps. One can dream.
No, go look at the record. Trump and Hillary, among others, hated Iran WAY WAY WAY before China was seen as a threat. There are clips of Trump from the 1980s (no typo!) where he seems to feel the US failure v. the mullahs then as a personal humiliation. I will need to find the clip again, but Hillary in her 2008 campaign pledged to go to war with Iran or some formulation that pretty much meant the same thing.
There was a recent clip going around X from her 2008 Presidential run indicating her intent to strike Iran, but some comments suggested it was selective editing and she was responding to a question of how she would respond if Iran attacked Israel. I cannot comment on which version is accurate, but HRC never saw a war she didn’t like and during a 2016 debate stood there with a smug look on her face while Trump blasted the JCPOA.
I linked to it above and nippersdad has it just below. I’d say it’s some vague sabre rattling and unclear if she would attack Iran only if it nuked Israel, or if she’d attack it she felt Iran were a threat to Israel. I think we all know she’d have gone for what’s behind door #2 though.
It goes all the way back to the removal of the Shah’s regime and Carter’s ill conceived op to free the embassy hostages.
It was the US that supported Saddam Husain’s war on Iraq.
Iran was the last country on the list of 7 countries to be overthrown in 5 years, as shared by Wesley Clark in 2001.
Saddam Husain’s war on Iran…
Haig Hovaness posted a tweet in links on the fifteenth that may be what you are thinking about:
https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/2032464025762615682?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2032876507387830636%7Ctwgr%5Eec338ed983b25d801c2b8f7944886eab22c53ebd%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nakedcapitalism.com%2F2026%2F03%2Flinks-3-15-2026.html
Two thoughts.
More than half of American households are right on the edge financially, $7 gas and a 20% increase in food prices will break them and the increases are likely to be higher than that.
Food riots and serious civil unrest are likely and the likelyresponse of the Trump administration to that will be…unsettling.
Going after Joe Kent, hoo boy.
He “looks Right”, handles himself well on camera and his credentials are hard earned, this is the kind of Man the video games and propaganda of the last decade have made into the ideal American Hero, Wife Killed and scalped by the Injuns and all…..straight out of a Western novel.
And I do suspect that Vance will leverage this, it looks like he has begun to make his move.
WASS, but it is a heck of a show.
That first thought has been on my mind. “A hungry mob is an angry mob.”
Watching and reading contemporary “Western” media and commentators I find it beyond belief that there is no mention of resistance and revolutionary thought. A cursory reading of Marx, Lenin, Trotsky, Mao, General Võ Nguyên Giáp Viet Nam, Che Guevera, Amilcar Cabral, etc. would more than give an inkling of what the objectives of the Iranian state are at this time. These writers cited above put forward placed emphasis on short term goals necessary to achieve the task at hand. In this case it is obvious given the US/European history in the “Levant” that these the US, European and their vassals want the total destruction of Iran. The current war is as has been explained by the US military as the “last” of 7 Middle Eastern states to be destroyed is a fight to the end — just as it was for Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Irak, Lebanon, etc. Iran is the last domino. I am not sure if the current political, economic and mainstream media elite are willfully ignorant or just plain stupid in their surprise of Iranian resistance. Since at least 1953 (Iran) and practically speaking the division of Africa by the European powers in the 19th century, the overall imperial goal has to be and been to fragment whatever state(s) existed and continue to exist. There is no other credible theory given the historical record.
Because the Western media are in the business of manufacturing consent, not enlightening the public. Even decades later, Chomsky’s theory of propaganda still holds true.
‘Things are not going well for the US and Israel in Iraq either.’
Stanislav Krapivnik was talking about these troops in a video the other day. He says you have the ones in the Green Zone, one in Kurdish Iraq and one other. He says that they are under constant attack and may start to run out of supplies and that columns should go in to evacuate them. He also mentioned that the Kurds may turn on the US if they try to evacuate from their territory. They keep on blaming the Iran linked militias but I am not so sure about that. An entire generation has grown up since the invasion of Iraq and many would have lost family members under the American occupation. The see that their Parliament has voted for them to leave but they refuse to go so I would not be surprised to see ordinary Iraqis helping with these attacks. In one of the videos above there is a drone flying between buildings and I bet that it was the unarmed one that flew through the Green Zone. Can you imagine more and more actual suicide drones flying there.
So, after all this time, there may yet be a real Iraqi nation after all, thanks to us and Israel.
If they were to be evacuated, it should have already been done. I don’t think that either the sending of “columns” (whence?) or air mobile evacuation in a drone-rich environment are exactly comfortable options.
I heard similar statements many times. As someone who is not familiar with the nuts and bolts of the oil industry, I’d be interested in hearing a brief explanation from someone who is about why this is true. It seems a bit counterintuitive, but that’s all I can say about it.
IIRC, the cinematic “gusher” is rare. A lot of oil fields require make-up fluid (water, CO2 etc) to be injected down one well to ensure flow at the production well. Also oil at depth is hotter and less viscous. If the column of oil in the well is allowed to stagnate, presumably it thickens and can effectively plug the well. I imagine there is a delicate balance of pressure, too much may blow the well casing or reservoir, and perhaps heating required to reopen it.
This Halliburton product sheet corroborates that.
https://cdn.brandfolder.io/M1UO7IXR/as/hsmzkz79h4vf3t5j6hcmkn4/Restarting-Wells-After-Extended-Shut-In-Periods.pdf
Middle East fields are old. Saudi Arabia gets mots of its crude from the Ghawar field (80+ years old). The flow from the wells is kept up by injecting seawater under pressure to push up the remaining oil. This water is injected from wells around the periphery of a field. If the field is shut in, the oil and water tend to migrate, complicating the restart. Also, as has been mentioned, shut down wells can plug.
This will be a decisive test of power between the U.S. plutocracy and the Trump personality cult, and the plutocrats are likely to win. I think Trump may be removed before the end of his term. To quote from Apocalypse Now, “his methods have become…unsound.”
Two things (#Blade 2):
1. That embed from Two Majors on Russian assistance to Iran. I’m not saying that there isn’t any such assistance – and, frankly, the Russians would be foolish not to provide some level of support to the Iranians, not the least due to Russian logistical corridor plans for the region. But Two Majors as a blogger has always seemed to me 70% facts, 15% hopium and 15% really getting ahead of their skis. Or maybe 60/20/20 on some issues. Rybar regularly reposts them on his channel, but Rybar himself has a get-ahead-of-skis issues (especially on a couple of his pet subjects).
In other words, anything posted specifically by Two Majors should be taken with at least a couple of teaspoons of salt.
2. Yesterday Boris Rozhin reposted a screenshot from, I think, Lloyds, showing a new Iranian-approved tanker path through the Strait of Hormuz. [https://t.me/boris_rozhin/203356#] Essentially, instead of sailing down the middle of the strait, the few tankers that are allowed out are a) looping between two islands on Iran’s side of the Strait and b) spending some time sailing directly through Iran’s territorial waters. Which, of course, means not only are they closer to any missiles or drones on the Iranian side, but – from what little I’ve read on maritime law – Iran can potentially seize them, inspect them, and so on.
Presumably this fits in with the new regime proposed by Iran of letting through only “friendly” tankers that settle oil trades in Yuan. And charging transit fees, of course. It would also then make sense for the Iranians to mine the center and south (Oman side) of the Strait to ensure everyone has to traffic through Iranian waters – though I am not sure whether they have started to actually so do. And then there is the concept of “escorts” for tankers – a US ship sailing into Iran’s territorial waters is a different legal matter than a US ship going through the neutral middle of the Strait, methinks…
Sounds like Iran is setting up the perfect path for charging tolls…
“Charging tolls…” is exactly how the Ur Robber Barons made their livelihoods. It would be ironically appropriate if Iran turned the Neo-liberal playbook “on its head” to the discomfort of its adversaries.
“Beat them at their own game,” indeed.
Those countries are going to need a s*** load of dimes!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbWg-mozGsU (32 secs)
I watched Laith Marouf on Nima’s program this morning. He indicated some highlights to expect next week:
1.) Last US radar for THADD/Patriot System in Turkey. Iran will strike it next week.
2.) US is using air bases in Cypris and Greece for attacks on Iran. Iran will also strike these bases next week.
3.) If/when US ground forces arrive, probably in Saudi, Houthi’s will get back in the game, shutting off the prospects of moving Persian Gulf petro to the Red Sea to circumvent the Persian Gulf. Also, presumably Houthi’s can serve up short range, ultra-cheap shots on US deployment, which will result in costly use of any remaining AD capabilities. Because basing will be in other parts of Africa and Europe, it will take too long to respond to protect troops via air power.
Obviously, I am just repeating, I have no idea regarding the accuracy.
He also recounts that there was a protest in Turkey last Friday where all the ladies threw their head coverings down from the second floor onto the Imam and the men below, because they said it was unnecessary: the men must all be castrated because if they were real men they would be rising up to help their brothers in Gaza. Also don’t know if this anecdote is correct, but I suspect Turkey is going to be placed on the horn of the dilemma, and the saying one thing and doing another policy will not work by the end of March. It is bad enough in the US where there is an impression that Trump is a tool of the Israeli’s. Its not clear that Erdogan can survive if the Turkish polity concludes he is a tool of Israel as well.
If the Greece/Cyprus strikes happen, that is sure to raise discussions of Article V (I recognize that the argument may be made that the strikes were defensive, not offensive, but remember who will be arguing about Article V). You have to wonder what the NATO response will be, and I have to wonder what the Russians will do viz. Germany and Poland now the US has mostly expended its air defense, and if Iran strikes NATO bases. I don’t see given the domestic pressures in Russia how Putin avoids escalating by striking NATO bases as well.
Fortunately for the US Administration, there is no plan, and because there is no plan, there is no strategy, and because there is no strategy, there is no thought about how the enemy responds, and because there is no thought given to how the enemy responds, things will come as a complete surprise because no one would have the audacity to strike out at NATO or Team America, or try to shut the Straights of Hormuz.
Anyways, if Iran strikes NATO bases and Russia starts striking NATO bases, the conflict will begin to broaden beyond the ME. Obviously, it will be hard for China to sit on the sidelines at that point, although they may be patient and strategic about when they wade into things.
Sounds like “Germany” is back in 1914 again: world war or their stupid alliance? I fear that two world wars haven’t taught us anything.
“If the Greece/Cyprus strikes happen, […] [y]ou have to wonder what the NATO response will be”
Israel has been know to park some of its aircraft on that Cyprus base, and use it as a transfer point to bring in military supplies by air.
If Iran strikes when Israeli aircraft is present, then NATO members can indulge on some casuistry to avoid any kind of forceful response that would induce an escalation.
I mean, even if they invoke Article V, does that actually change anything for Iran? The United States is NATO for all practical purposes, and Iran is already fighting them and Israel. Normally the real threat of NATO is triggering the United States getting involved in a conflict, but in this case that’s already happened, and realistically the Euro countries are so weak militarily that there is little they could bring to the table that the US hasn’t already. The only real exception to this is Turkey, and there is no way I can see that Erdo sends his army off to die for the glory of Netenyahu, especially after the Israeli’s (keep!) flapping their gums about how the Turks are next.
Invoking article V and trying to cajole Europeans into this deeply unpopular war alongside a deeply unpopular United States will just be a nail in NATO’s corpse.
I’ve got $5 that says if Iran strikes the Cretan naval base, the Greek government falls.
Regarding China, they do have a 2/3 controlling financial interest in Piraeus, Greece’s largest port. All because of the austerity measures that forced Greece to sell off national assets.
My understanding is the strikes in Greece would be on air fields, not port facilities. The point would be to push American air power so far back it would not be effective defending ground forces deployed in the ME.
Doesn’t seem like the playing one against the other in the Mid-East/West Asia for the benefit of some other country started or will end with the moves the USA eventually makes.
And there used to be a quip about what was the actual biggest USA aircraft carrier in the region.
Been wondering about this since start of Iran war 2: would the gulf countries be worried about the US ability to “freeze” sovereign wealth fund assets if any of them feel compelled to not toe the US line?
Yes, if the US sanctioned any of them for ‘switching sides’, they wouldn’t be able to get any of those assets they’ve bought in the US.
We did it to Venezuela. We stole Citgo from them and gave it to Juan Guaido’s crew of theives.
Famously, the Europeans did it to Libya, too. They grabbed all the central bank reserves held.
Some updates:
Bloomberg banner headline, catches up with independent media hours late. How is this good for investors:
Directionally consistent with the Naptha Shock article we’ve mentioned a couple of times:
If I’m correctly interpreting what I’ve been reading lately, the “backwardation” of oil futures is growing for several grades. (ie, the spread between the price of futures contracts and the actual spot price of the physical oil is growing.)
That seems like a thing that can’t be made to last long.
Well except, and I need to discuss this, Brent not a really a deliverable contract. Formally it is but practically it isn’t due to pretty much no North Sea oil. So there must be a gentleman’s understanding not to try to take delivery.
However, as I have discovered in my picayune foray into the silver market, there are no “gentlemen” anywhere to be found. Just a raft of cliques and allied “interests.”
If there is a dollar to be made in “breaking” any “gentleman’s agreement,” someone or other will do so. See all the big institutional players in the precious metals market “standing” for delivery over the past few months. (Out of the ordinary enough to be noticed by longer term ‘players.’)
Stay safe. Stay liquid.
Indeed, the “gentlemen” are all ruthless speculators, and until all commodity speculators are required to take delivery we non-speculators will remain well and truly screwed.
better for the world to compost them
I’m reminded of the first thing I was taught over 45 years back on my first days working for a big commodities outfit. “In the delivery month, in the delivery market, cash and futures are the same. The rest of the time, and in all other places, the relationship between cash and futures depends.” It’s less a gentleman’s understanding about making/taking delivery than it is this. The rules surrounding the delivery process are intentionally made both difficult and expensive to make and take delivery.
I’ve been looking at UKOIL and CL1!, and noticing the latter is less volatile. There are definitely some massive spreads, especially with DME Oman and the OPEC Basket, though the question is whether they are being measured against price levels or panic spikes into the supply zone.
It could be enlightening to have some more discussion of this, because oil markets are pretty complicated and it has been pointed out that there are a lot of variables at play in terms of which refineries can actually process which varieties of crude, e.g., Japan is not geared up to refine US-sourced oil.
This is not an assignment, of course.
Interesting suggestion on X, endorsed by Brad Setser: countries needing to stabilize their FX should sell US equities rather than treasuries, since the one thing we know get’s Trump’s attention is equity prices.
I almost posted a few days ago the suggestion that we boomers should move our retirement funds out of equities and into “cash” to drive down equities–for that same reason. I am essentially in that position myself.
https://oilchange.org/publications/an-update-on-the-origins-of-israels-fuel-supply/
From Nov. 2025.
A quick grab of some info and don’t know if there any updates since. But maybe it should be more included in some discussions?
Israel is virtually self sufficient in gas and cut off the supply to Egypt.
Platforms could become targets.
https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/israels-offshore-gas-and-the-new-maritime-security-frontier
Ahahahahaha!
How very on-brand for the Israeli’s. Apparently even $35 billion dollars doesn’t guarantee you gas supplies. Better luck next time, Egypt.
And there is the natural gas from Gaza.
No, Israel steals Palestinian gas and Egypt buys the stolen gas. The fields are largely in Gazan waters.
No, Israel steals Palestinian gas and Egypt buys the stolen gas. The fields are largely in Gazan waters.
Is there any media coverage of how the Iranian damage to the Middle East plants making polyethylene plastic could be a positive for the world’s plastic pollution problem?
Restricting the supply of plastic could be good to force the world to use less.
Well, since food stuffs are packaged in plastic I would imagine the shortage of plastics will affect food price. (And the ability to reduce spoilage.)
AND your automobile uses massive amount of plastic.
If there’s no food we won’t need the plastic packaging.
Twofer
ive been being forced to design a plastics recycling facility for school and it is really making me reflect on how dumb plastics are as a class of product. there are so many use cases we really should be cutting down on. (trinkets like funko pops, clothing.) but simultaneously it will make many genuinely useful and lifesaving plastic products more expensive. (a lot of medical supplies for one.)
like ive been pro oil prices spike for years for climate change reasons, but u gotta weight how much destruction and death will happen bc of an oil price spike against the environmental benefits. it’s one of those questions for utilitarian philosophers who get paid to consider the costs and benefits of each side in depth, not me.
Press release
Joint statement from the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan on the Strait of Hormuz: 19 March 2026
“We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces…..” yada, yada, yada
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-kingdom-france-germany-italy-the-netherlands-and-japan-on-the-strait-of-hormuz-19-march-2026
Air Force Academy Prepares Ideological Overhaul, With Erika Kirk Bringing “Bold Christian Faith”
The academy’s oversight board records show leaders dismantling DEI to align with Trump directives. Critics warn the military is becoming “a Christian nationalist praetorian guard.”
https://theintercept.com/2026/03/19/air-force-academy-charlie-erika-kirk/
We condemn in strongest terms the acts of aggression by Poland on the National Socialist Germany at Gleiwitz and elsewhere blah blah blah…
We condemn in strongest terms the acts of aggression by Ethiopia against Italy blah blah blah…
We condemn in the strongest terms the acts of aggression by Ruritania against the Duchy of Grand Fenwick…
We are at this level of absurdity now. The Narrative is All. (Don’t let that pesky Objective Reality get in the way…)
Christian Nationalist Praytorian Guard
>>>While Joe served with four different elite units in the US Army and the CIA, I know from personal experience that most of the soldiers serving in those units didn’t know the difference between Sunni and Shia Muslims
In a post full of surprises, depressing facts, and general stupidity, this last bit feels the worst to me.
I’m hardly knowledgeable about Islam, but not knowing about the differences between the Shia and Sunni is like not knowing about the differences between the Lutherans and the Orthodox or the Catholics and the Baptists.
If you don’t know even the most basic of things, you can’t do your.
It’s also worrisome not because they don’t know the most basic of things but they don’t know because they don’t care to know, it makes no difference to them, doesn’t matter, is not important. The other guy is the wrong color or wearing the wrong things or speaking the wrong language, and that’s it. And this speaks to the kind of world they want to live in, the world they’re trying to build.
I’ve heard, and even seen some newsreels confirming it partially, that Russian troops in Syria, at least those operating outside the bases (military police, medics, trainers, advisors), always are either formed of or contain a large contingent of Tatars, Chechens, Bashkirs or other Muslim people living in Russia who can converse in Arabic.
Would it be any easier for various non Arab Muslims to learn Arabic than non Muslins? We are talking about very different languages. Yes, they may know a bit of Arabic religious lingo, but that has little connection to living languages.
The religious Arabic may not have much connection to the living languages, but as far as I know, it’s what most Arabian speaking people fall back to, when they have to speak with each other but come from different parts of the Arabic world. At least so said my Libyan friend years ago.
It is a head start to know the writing and pronunciation, in any case.
I don’t know: one experience that really gave me a sense of how varied Arabic was two of my colleagues, one Tunisian and the other Lebanese, speaking to each other in French rather than Arabic, claiming that their Arabic dialects are too different to be mutually understandable. I have hard time imagining Russians with mostly Turkic language backgrounds managing to speak Arabic that well…unless they had training, in which case it would be the training rather than their backgroubd doing the talking, so to speak.
i got the same general impression from the palestinians i knew 30 years ago in austin, and the lebanese and iraqis i know in san antone. arabic is a universal language in the ummah.
The late Robert Fisk reported Arabic speaking Russian officers when Russia first sent troops into Syria. I think it was he who also pointed out that Soviet forces had been there for years to the point one was getting Syrian_USSR marriages.
I suppose that in the early years of the Iraq occupation this might have roughly conformed to the hostility both groups felt towards the US, even as they fought each other. But as ISIS developed in the 2010s and the US worked in some sort of coordinated fashion with Shiite units fighting ISIS … that’s not blissful ignorance, it’s dangerous. Was that phase so brief it never really sunk in?
George Bush famously never knew that you even had Sunni and Shia Muslims before invading Iraq.
>>>While Joe served with four different elite units in the US Army and the CIA, I know from personal experience that most of the soldiers serving in those units didn’t know the difference between Sunni and Shia Muslims
Obviously not true in Kent’s case, as in the interview with Tucker he talks about Iran and their proxies fighting against ISIS and Al Qaeda at different points in that whole sandbox mess (all true.) I suspect this is just sniping by the type of people who sit at desks against the type of people who actually go do things. The former must imagine themselves to be mentally superior to the latter or else their whole self-image implodes.
Power outages in Haifa area, Iran claims: We struck energy facility
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/55x8y0am1
Despite Trump remarks, Israeli officials say US knew of strike on Iran gas field
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/despite-trump-comments-israeli-officials-say-us-knew-iran-gas-field-strike-2026-03-19/
Remember how a comment by April Glaspie was interpreted by Saddam Hussein as being official permission by the US for Iraq to attack Kuwait?
Does anyone suppose history will record Mike Huckabee’s comment to Tucker Carlson, that he as no problem with Israel taking over the entire middle east including Turkey and the GCC countries, as a green light for Israel to begin to do so – leading to the unprovoked attack on Iran by Israel?
There would definitely have been an echo of the Glaspie moment if, when Israel had attacked Iran, we had rallied the world to attack Israel in response. War what is it good for nothing et cetera, but at least being on the right side in the war would’ve made it somewhat more tolerable.
This is assuming Israel feels any need to ask permission, because meanwhile we have Rubio and the director of the CIA saying the Zionists informed Trump they were going in, thereby forcing his hand.
West Point Modern War Institute report: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/19/west-point-analysis-iran-war-costs
Half of the world’s seaborne sulphur trade passes through the strait. The article calls out impacts on copper, cobalt, explosives, and fertilizers.
Taiwan has rejected offer from China linking energy security to reunification, as reported by Reuters and other outlets.
This will be something to watch in coming weeks.
“We wanted surprise, who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor?” – Trump, beside the Japanese PM, when asked why didn’t he inform allies about attacking Iran.
Japanese were inspired by the British (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Copenhagen_(1801)).
Wow, he actually said that? (Just saw xwits about translators going silent after the Pearl Harbor joke–presumably this one.) :O
Japan-US summit report: (in Japanese)
https://news.web.nhk/newsweb/na/na-k10015080131000
Google xlate appears to do a reasonable job.
A number of references to Japan investing in Alaska oil production, but no mention of this ongoing issue:
Japan’s Refineries Can’t Handle All the U.S. Crude Trump Wants
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Japans-Refineries-Cant-Handle-All-the-US-Crude-Trump-Wants.html
P.S. This is tangential, but I’ve noticed that Google has upped their game in machine translation of Japanese. For a long while it was pretty weak and DeepL was a better option, but sometime in the past year or so, Google upgraded their service and IMHO now does a better job. In particular, DeepL has a lot of trouble getting dates correct and frequently loses track of quoted text (i.e., quotation marks in the original text regularly drop out of the translation).
Martyanov repeats over and over again that the US is a continental power: and a continental power without ever having to fight on its homeland and in its homeland real and potential external threats. As a result US state power is almost purely expeditionary with no sense of REAL (Zizek sense) purpose. A continental power in the American sense is one side of a coin labelled continental and isolationism on the other side. US isolationism conditions “bigly” its ability, or perhaps better expressed, its inability to comprehend the world outside its borders.
As a result USsians (in the Gore Vidal sense of the term) “la plupart d’entre vous ne sont pas des colons, mais une espèce d’innocents. Dans le sens du joual québécois.”
It has been noted that the US is actually a maritime and aerospace power. But what that means is that if things go wrong, that they can sail and fly away from a war. See Vietnam and Afghanistan as examples.
I’m seeing a pinned tweet on Thomas Keith that seems to claim an F-35 has been shot down with an Iranian missile. Interesting if true.
It seems it was hit and this has been admitted but the US says it made it back to base.
Times of India claims to have video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ucmyQ5B1KA
My question is: where the jet was when it was hit and still able to land at a US base. My guess it was hit over Iraq, in which case, this is more evidence that Iraq is no longer uncontested airspace.
Per Moon of Alabama, the US is out of standoff munitions, F35s were ordered to fly into Iran, and Iran’s airspace is definitely NOT under US control. We do not know how many F35s were almost hit and had to flee.
At 30 hours maintenance per hour of of flight (Col Wilkerson), they are 97% not useful.
Wall St falls as oil surge stokes inflation fears; Russell 2000 slips
Indexes off: Dow 0.92%, S&P 500 0.77%, Nasdaq 0.93%
Micron Technology down 4% as higher spending plans draw scrutiny
Brent crude near $112/barrel on Middle East tensions, clouding inflation outlook
Small-cap Russell 2000 briefly falls 10% from record high
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-soaring-oil-prices-fed-outlook-spook-investors-2026-03-19/
Bessent Floats Lifting Sanctions on Iran as Oil Prices Skyrocket
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. may remove sanctions on Iranian oil, as prices globally skyrocket.
https://newrepublic.com/post/207973/trump-may-lift-sanctions-iran-bessent-oil-prices
Trump says US is not putting troops in Middle East region
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-not-putting-us-troops-region-amid-iran-war-2026-03-19/
Less than 1% is daily noise.
re: last sane Germans standing
nice Martin Sonneborn comment (former MEP):
“Trullah Regime
In case you haven’t heard: The US and Israel are currently normalizing terrorist assassinations of government officials—and thus political assassinations. Without the EU having the slightest say in the matter.
Are the millions of EU citizens who feel threatened by von der Leyen now allowed to arm drones and crash them into the EU Commission building?
To eliminate her and the other terrorist trullahs (Roberta Metaxa, the Kallas family, Strack-Rheinmetall)? Pure self-defense! To the cheers of the media and the public, with 30,000 Commission officials killed as collateral damage…
Image: Sepp Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Iranian Security Council”
I would like to point out that it is not simply a matter of a lack of THAADs and PAC-3s that are being squandered. The E-11A planes are being run ragged right now. The AWACs have been on their last legs for a decade. And I am not seeing any reporting on it, but the satellites have inevitably been used to compensate for lack of ground equipment by changing their orbits. This is a huge deal–to maneuver a satellite requires lots of fuel. To do so frequently requires lots of fuel.
My very amateurish guess is that satellites that are intended to run for 15 years are probably going to be useless over a period of months, and these are not (yet) commercial off-the-shelf lego-like blocks to fit together–they are customized, exquisite systems that take yeads to build. And they are few enough in number that their early burnout is going to have massive implications for all other theatres.
The costs of this war to replace the military and intelligence capabilities that existed **even the day before this misadventure began** are absolutely staggering, even if we forget about how to compensate for the destruction of bases. The US simply can’t pay it, and anyway doesn’t have the production capability to produce it, over the next decade. Add to this all the other “stuff” such as nuclear modernization, submarine building, golden dome (which was likely simply a headline-generating way to grift anyway), and the only logical conclusion is that the US will not even be able to hold on to its own hemisphere for very long (and by “very long”, I am talking about years, not decades).
Hand in hand with this, the defense companies are in for an interesting ride. Except for the very large players, most of the industry is actually struggling (and has been for well over a decade), and many of the large players are on fixed price contracts for big ticket items. But the really interesting part for me is that since the US can’t afford to pay or all of its replacements under any circumstances anyway, the industry as a whole will begin to see absolutely enormous pressures on their margins to USG sales while also facing increased competition and barriers to entry to allied countries, who have likely figured out by now that a lot of US weaponry is just overhyped junk sold by an unreliable used car salesman.
The country has absolutely decimated itself militarily in order to kill a guy in his 80s who was going to die son anyway at the cost of destroying its next decade of economic growth in the process
…and this…
but have the ‘mehricans figured out this overpriced junk, which is so obviously useful and handy and an effective deterrent and easy to replace etc etc, isn’t worth bupkus?
but without the MIC driving the US manufacturing sector, what’s left? financial gambling and oppressive health care? finance and real estate bubbles galore?
There’s another aspect to this that will also have forseeably bad consequences, incidentally.
So many countries have bought (and are implicitly depending on) the F-35 for their fleets and have few or no backup options.
1. They are unlikely to get many of them any time soon (meaning never)
2. The jets are clearly junk anyway
3. The countries are also unlikely to get their money back
I am picking the F-35 in particular because of its visibility, but there are many other army and navy equipment that play a similar role to the allied militaries.
I assume that Australia has more or less completely given up on getting its super-duper nuclear subs, for example.
Even if the US had the people to draft (and they don’t) and the time and the logistics to actually conduct a draft (they don’t) and people willing to actually get drafted (and they don’t), and the time to train the draftees in time (and they don’t) before the military collapses, I don’t think they actually have the means to even **arm** the people they draft to the point of making these people effective enough to be worth drafting in the first place. And same with all the other NATO and FVEY and Asian-allied countries other than Turkey.
This is really checkmate under any conceivable set of circumstances barring massive far-fetched super-advanced alien tech that nobody knows about
US F-35 forced to make emergency landing after Iran combat mission
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/03/19/us-f-35-forced-to-make-emergency-landing-after-iran-combat-mission/
F-35 Hit By Iran: IRGC Releases Video Claiming To Show US Fighter Jet Shot Down Over Iranian Territory
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/us/us-news/f-35-hit-by-iran-irgc-releases-video-claiming-to-show-us-fighter-jet-shot-down-over-iranian-territory-article-153875894
Landed? Shot down? May be a distinction without a difference if you’re looking at buying F-35s.
p.s. the Sonneborn Tweet link
https://x.com/MartinSonneborn/status/2034559567665803385
Various Telegram channels have it that Iran “shot down” and F35, while US sources are saying an F35 flying combat mission over Iran “had to make an emergency landing”. Hard to know what’s true.
From Aljazeera: IRGC says it was attacked and damaged. US Central Command says it was forced to make a landing.
https://aje.news/fs4nzb?update=4417272
If the plane never flies again because of the damages, I think it counts as “shot down”.
My initial thought when I saw the claim of an F35 having a problem was the wear and tear on the frames from extended use. It seems everyone has made a stink about the Ford and the US shooting off its wad, but I think the ongoing maintenance of the planes are going to be a major part of the story.
Shades of what happened in Serbia in 1999.
Famously, the Serbs shot down a stealth F-117, which immediately crashed — the pilot managed to evade capture and was later exfiltrated by US forces.
Less well-known is that the Serbs shot a second F-117, which barely made it back to a NATO base. The airplane was subsequently deemed unrepairable.
Ripplebrain likes to post Serbian memes about the F-117 saying “sorry, we didn’t know it was invisible.”
Just based on the video alone, I would be skeptical about the shoot-down. However, CNN (which let’s not forget is a US govt propaganda outlet) confirmed that the jet was damaged and made an emergency landing. So yeah, it looks like Iranians managed to score a hit on a F-35 and damage it.
Interesting that it looks to be a surface-to-air IR missile, and it seemed to have been guided from the ground (video footage was shot from the ground station tracking it with a thermal camera). Note that F-35 is only stealthy to radar. Its heat stealth is pretty poor.
The answer to this question is over my pay grade, but perhaps you know. Is it a surprise that the Iranians have this type of weapon?
Yes I was surprised that such systems existed. I was not aware of any ground-based SAM in use today that used infrared guidance, aside from very small MANPADS like the Stinger.
I just saw mentioned on the interwebs that this Iranian system is a hybrid drone/missile system. Not sure how that works, but maybe instead of launching the interceptor directly from the ground like in a normal ADS, they launch a drone which flies halfway to the target then the drone launches an air-to-air missile. Seems to me like it would be very hard to make it work, but apparently the Iranians got it to work.
There was mention some time last week of Russia supplying upgraded Iranian drones with air-to-air missiles built in.
I’ve now seen that the IRGC claims it’s an Iranian designed weapon.
It was rumoured by OSINTers like Deep Dive Defense back in 2020 that Iran had started to field systems with IR terminal guidance seekers: @Pataramesh (Oct 2020 post on Twitter)
Another posting on Twitter: (Oct 2020) @Pataramesh
Russia supposedly provided Iran with “Verba” manpads in Feb of this year, and those definitely have IR seekers, but the chances of a manpad shoot-down of something like an F-35 is pretty slim.
I believe Iran has at least 4 domestic systems with optical/IR targeting capability, and also Russian Pantsir S-1 with opto-electrical targeting.
All of them are, of course, line-of-sight medium or short range air-defense systems, designed to be cheap(er) and for operations under a strong EW. If networked, they are rather good for ambushes, as they don’t really emit anything while having good view of the battle space.
IRIS SAMs. Ukraine has used them. Upgraded Sidewinder missiles. Ground launched, radar guided, infrared homing.
There are a few: IRIS-T being the best known Western wxample, but who knows what non Western countries are fielding? As far as I understand, so called anti stealth radars nowadays are good wnough to track, but not target. IR imaging (not IR homing) seems the most obvious way to go (speaking with minimal tech knowledge.)
So, the Pentagon is asking for $200 billion for the war.
s/ Cheap at twice the price! Get two for the price of one! /s
That deal is only for Players Club International card holders.
Oh come on, lets just round it up to a trillion and save ourselves from needing to have a bake sale to round up the difference later
I was going to suggest a good old fashioned “Artillery Cook Off” to go with the bake sale, but America has a serious problem with shell production, so that idea bites the dust.
Now that I think about it a bit more, I do believe that this is a case for Military Money Theory (MMT). World domination is just a key stroke away.
Depends on which key player is having the stroke.
I think that’s just for Pentagram Petey’s lobster tail supply. Easier to obtain than the rare earths needed to make all the weapons systems that the brass are dreaming of.
Pete Hegseth says ‘It takes money to kill bad guys.’ And they say that Trump talks like a toddler.
They’re asking congress to appropriate more money for a war that congress never declared.
Lindsay must be all for it.
Netanyahu outlines three goals in Iran war (BBC)
Good luck with that.
Basically an open-ended war, with unachievable strategic goals.
These read as justifications for what he’s about to do. And perhaps in his mind highlighting American complicity helps with the justification.
Also, he seems compelled to reinforce that complicity, which makes me wonder if American resolve is failing.
Bibi’s “we’re bombing to free the people to rise up” is a false reason as it has never worked in reality. Rather, it is just the usual tired pabulum about “liberation”. The true goal is long-term destabilization. It’s about giving Iran the Libya treatment, such that nobody can stand in the way of the Zionist plans for mehr Lebensraum.
Netanyahu’s three goals? Lol, I gotta be me.
1. Beachfront property in Miami
2. “Get out of jail free” card
3. Sharks with ray guns
The leadership of Iran has earned my respect over the last few Months.
They have acted with integrity and restraint, in good faith and in some cases with remarkable dignity.
They have won their “Greater Jihad”, whether that leads to victory in their “Lesser Jihad” ( The current War) or not, it is something to be proud of.
They are “Stand up Guys” or someone you could “Ride the River with” in American terms.
They are Honorable Men.
I don’t want to gush, but yeah, and not just the leaders.
I was taught this is how we are supposed to be.
MrSyk, many of us were taught to be “Stand Up Guys”, My father ran away to become a Cowboy the summer he turned 16, the “Cowboy Ethic” became part of who he was.
Dad had a stutter and was spastic from birth, a high forceps baby.
For myself, I had someone kindly take me aside to let me know that I ” lacked the necessary ethical flexibility to succeed” in the biz I was working in.
He was right, I moved on.
Ali Khamenei’s edict against building nuclear weapons was a moral position that the world should emulate. I have said this before. He also advised against building missiles that could go beyond Iran’s immediate region of concern. The US Manhattan Project may be understood according to the real threats of the time, but by Autumn 1944 the establishment knew that Germany had not pursued the prospect. Yet the US continued. Truman’s dropping of the two bombs on Japan may have been the most immoral act in human history (there was competition). Japan had no such program and were ready to surrender in May of ’45 except for quibbles about their Emperor.
Today it would be a rational response for Iran to build such weapons. Khamenei’s edict may have died with him.
That’s where we are at.
If anyone again breaks the nuclear taboo then hold onto your loved ones tight.
Khamenei’s edict may have died with him.
It did. A few days ago I saw an interview with an Iranian who said fatwas[1] stopped applying when the author of them dies. A bit of digging indicates this is generally the case, though of course it’s complicated among the Shi’a in ways I don’t fully grasp yet.
_____
[1] Fatwas are answers to questions put to certain kinds of scholars, rather than legal judgements.
However, Iranian authorities upheld Khomeini’s fatwa against Rushdie even after the issuer died. I seem to recall they even said that when the issuer dies, nobody can revoke it any more, and as long as followers of the issuer’s exist, it can be observed or pursued.
Alice, the Japanese did have a nuclear program in 1944 and 1945, they lacked Uranium with which to build a bomb, uranium which was on the way in a German U boat when Germany surrendered.
That U Boat surrendered to US Forces when Germany surrendered instead of completing its mission.
IIRC it was the U232.
Linkey-poo?
Here is the link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_submarine_U-234
Iranian missiles and drone launches have been increasing steaqdyly since the 13th – currently at 60 missiles (>1 ton) and 250 dones per day. Given that Iran is planning a long war, suggests these are sustainable rates – either matching production (I have heard Shahed production is paused due to lack of storage – more need to be fired daily.
https://no01.substack.com/p/march-16-19-diplomatic-impunity
Many other interesting points on this site – 10% reaper fleet destroyed. 1973 was 4.4 mbpd, 1978 was 5.6 mbpd (and led to 20% interest rates), and now, in 2026, 20 mbpd already (Houthis will stop Red Sea, and Iran will eventually destroy Azerbaijani production. Given the trend in Israeli military strategy, it will not be “switched on” when hostilities end, its being destroyed.
And back in the 1970s, the US has an industrial base and did not have debt payments at 1 trillion per year.
Interior Generates over $163 million from National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska Oil and Gas Lease Sale
India Unveils Ambitious Plan to Quadruple Solar Power by 2035
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Unveils-Ambitious-Plan-to-Quadruple-Solar-Power-by-2035.html
US issues new 30-day waiver for sale of Russian oil, adding Cuba, N.Korea exceptions
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-issues-new-license-authorizing-sale-russian-oil-tankers-march-12-2026-03-19/
Netanyahu says Iran has ‘no capacity’ to enrich uranium; denies ‘dragging’ US into Middle East conflict
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/netanyahu-says-iran-has-no-capacity-to-enrich-uranium-denies-dragging-us-into-middle-east-conflict-101773946707026.html
The third one is interesting. Is the Zionutter-in-chief making stuff up, or does he have intelligence that confirms the enrichment infrastructure was in fact destroyed by Midnight Hammer? One can only guess.
BRIAN BERLETIC with GLENN DIESEN
Brian Berletic: Iran War – A Gateway to War with China & Russia
March 19
60 min.
https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/brian-berletic-iran-war-a-gateway
my 2 cents:
Recommended with major wrinkels.
Berletic doesn´t get into the thick of actual military affairs and neither does he endeavour (at least in this show) how the US is hurting itself economically this very moment in ways it possibly may not recover from any more.
So while he is digging into those think tank papers their “wisdom” takes you only so far. In doing so and explaining how all US administrations were following those outlines (him argueing a bit slavishly to make his preperceived point) – without putting think tank allegations and predictions under real scrutiny – he inadvertently affirms the US narrative.
I would never invoke the notion of useful idiot here, for that he is way too scathing, damnening and insightful – but if we consider the myth of US supremacy to be a very powerful tool he kinda bolsters this myth.
He already did so in the SMO when argueing that the US had invested not that much and would have hurt mainly Russia – just as RAND had predicted. (Did Berletic e.g. ever acknowlegde that the Russian technocrats themselves thanked the sanctions in interviews?).
So his take scratches only on the mere surface of the matter rather unfortunately. His audience might take his views a bit like the gospel and therefore follow the US supremacy assumption. Which drops 90% of what is actually happening in the tactical and strategic context of SMO and probably Iran too.
Myth-making and power of fiction are crucial:
We have learned e.g. under Nazi occupation of the East that loss of narrative supremacy as was the case with the assassination of Heydrich can fuel actual material resistance and the faith that the enemy is vulnerable and have severe material consequences to the occupier.
I assume (I haven´t studied it admittedly) that Slovakian resistance which was one of the strongest in Eastern Europe then, in 1944 when rising up eventually used the insight and strength of conviction following the successful Heydrich killing (the guy after all regarded as #3 in 3rd Reich hierarchy.)
So Berletic lacks the scholarly expertise of someone like Martyanov.
That´s my major critique.
What I appreciate very much is his making the point counter the Israel Lobby narrative, which to an extent has captured public perception IMO. His argument is that the lobby is mostly a front. And the US can use Israel as a scapegoat.
If we look at who is taking the hits in be it in the wars over Syria, the genocide in Gaza or on Iran – it is never the US mainland. It is Israel.
This may seem a banal fact. But I feel it´s not given enough credit by far vis-á-vis the inter-US/ISR relationship.
Whether US personnel sponsored by AIPAC believe some of the BS they spread doesn´t change the actual cold calculus of US geopolitics
AG at 5:18 pm
Larry Wilkerson has stated repeatedly that despite what many believe Israel is a US proxy.
To underscore your point: who provides the weapons and the funding? The US. What country takes the hits: Israel. Whose soldiers do the dying? Israel’s.
It doesn’t mean Israel has no agency. But it does explain which country is really in control.
My contention is that ‘countries’ is such an antiquated view. Because who is in control of the US are powerful interests like Adelson, Ellison, Thiel, Singer, Soros, etc. It seems that these oligarchs are viceroys to geographic regions in some sense (Singer mostly Latam, Soros mostly Europe, etc). And even some of these are instruments of yet more powerful interests. Thiel, for example, is definitely a creation of the intelligence agencies, who are themselves controled by real old money, much of it based in Europe. But even the others never would have made their fortunes without old money patronage.
The US will certainly remain favoured because of its geography and access to resources, but the attachment to Israel is very real albeit narrative based.
US however only became an Israel-buddy after some time. I think many argue as the most obvious date 1967.
Rashid Khalidi often stresses an important fact – one which has nothing to do with hard materialist factors – shared culture and roots between Zionists and the Western imperial elites. Zionists were extremely successful in coopting British and US elites for their cause opposite the Palestinians.
Former spoke the same tongue, knew the same clubs, shared the same social space of cohesion.
(To this day. All were part of elite Western ivy league culture at some point: Netanyahu, Barak, Sharon, Peres and so on. Of course even more so around the nascency of Zionism.)
Arabs were incapable he criticizes to even get near this skill of developing and using this kind of soft power.
“intelligence agencies, who are themselves controled by real old money” – maybe you could give a few examples that´d be helpful. I know this argument but never looked into how that played out in detail.
I understand how drug money has a role. But that is a different area.
With all due respect. I know Brian and his family. They live here in Thailand. In Bangkok to be precise.
What he focuses on – he does better than anyone. His research is world class and easily verifiable.
And unlike most arm chair quarterbacks, he spends a great deal of time helping his local community.
That alone – speaks volumes about the man.
Having said that, and perhaps because of that, he does not step back far enough or look deep enough to the true underlying causes of all the current crises happening all over the globe.
All wars are Bankers Wars. All of them – through out history. From the Roman Empire to today.
We can start in the City of London. When was that established? People would be shocked to know how long that has stood there. If indeed they were aware of it’s existence. Hell most people in London do not know of it.
Add the tentacles of Zionism to the mix and you start to finally get the picture.
What family is the wealthiest in the world? In history? Not Musk, not even close.
The Rothschild Dynasty. Well over a trillion.
First you get the money, then you get the power, then you get the……………under age girls.
To paraphrase! LOL
Anyway, I could go down that rabbit hole for hours. And as I too, work with the local Thai people and business – I simply do not have the time to waste.
Suffice to say Brian understands one layer of US policy but not the true driving force behind it.
His research on US soft power is without peer. CIA, USAID, NED etc. Should read his work on the Philippines.
BTW, when I sold my house in Vegas last year – I had to figure out where to move to. I narrowed it down to 3 cities – Moscow, Beijing, and Phuket. Where is the most freedom? My brain told me Moscow but my heart told me Phuket. Despite the massive US meddling inside Thailand. That and the fact that it is the only country in Asia not to have been colonized. And Buddhism of course. Ok. And I love to Scuba dive.
And Songkran !! The best party in the world. If you do not count Burning Man!!
Sorry for going off topic.
And for the rant.
Feel free to ignore.
Sorry, I did not intend to attack Berletic. He has done same great work but I don´t have to agree with everything he suggests. I tried to walk that narrow line…
I have major issues with Berletic. He sees US regime change operations under every bed. The fact that the US may want that and even has some efforts to achieve that does not mean that we were effective. See Hong Kong and Thailand as examples where Berletic depicts the US as having a major role where very well placed locals disagree.
I hate to say this but I see him as having a common US bias, of not being willing to see yellow, brown and black people as having agency.
I wouldn´t even claim he denies agency. It is just the result of his static approach of US supremacy as unalterable. That eclipses space to acknowledge successes of other smaller actors opposed to USA. It would contradict his analysis.
In fact he might even regard “yellow, brown and black” as more “developed” and cultured for the very reason that they seem to not wanting to solve everything with a sword or a machine-gun. (If this were true is another question.)
p.s. in this similiar context earlier this year you briefly criticized China´s “imperial” behaviour in “its” region of influence. Something a few commentators here opposed.
Perhaps you will find time to expand on this topic if we get out of this clusterfuck. A serious, adult view of China…I too tend to look at them with a lot of generosity (but that´s of course because where I live.)
You may not claim that but other people in Thailand who read him read his take on Thailand exactly the same way I do, and further see his attitude as typically American. You apparently have not listened to enough of his talks on topics outside Ukraine, where his takes on weapons and tactics have been excellent.
No apologies necessary. I agree that you have every right to disagree. Huh? What’s that called again? Oh yeah Free Speech. We have to use it while we still can…………
Of course we agree on “The First”. But I always try to not come across as righteous. There is a certain tradition in Germany (I don´t know about other places) which I detest – to double down for the simple reason because one can because the law allows it.
Yves, I wonder if it’s possible to cool it on the Rothschild bullshit? There is such a thing as ACTUAL antisemitism and I see it sneaking out under the cover of the very legitimate criticisms most of us are making of Israel’s behavior. Sorry, I know I’m being THAT guy.
playa gold may not be the most fluid writer but the is absolutely correct with the central role of the Rothschilds in war financing in the 19th century and into the 20th. They had the power to a large degree to greenlight particular conflicts
And he is also correct about the Rothschilds and Zionism:
https://www.edrf.org.il/en/history-heritage/
However, he is completely wrong about their current wealth and influence. The heirs together are worth less than $30 billion:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-super-rich-old-money-113000642.html
They do not operate or control either of the boutique investment bank operating under the Rothschild name, which has total assets of less than $300 billion, which is a minnow in a world of JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup. And they are mainly money managers, so they do not “own” most of these assets either.
Well… just a few minor tweaks needed on that angle. ;)
I will provide proof in the future for everything stated. Including this post.
Having nothing but time (I think) and money (for sure) I do so love a challenge.
I will have my people contact your people and they will arrange a time and place that is mutually acceptable. Swords or pistols? Keyboards it is then!
I hate to say it but you are new here. The criticism you got is pretty mild compared to what many get, including regulars when they go off the rails.
I believe that the visible Rothschild wealth is only the tip of the iceberg and most of their ownership is indirect or off-record, similar to the British Royal Family, whose official wealth is in the single-billions. But the Crown Corporation owns 90% of Canada’s and Australia’s land, for example, so it gets royalties on any resource extraction there in perpetuity.
The list of Rothschild-linked companies on wikipedia is enormous, and includes giants like De Beers, Rio Tinto, and Royal Dutch Shell, where they own significant stakes.
“Rothschild linked” does not mean any significant ownership.
The fortunes of other absolute top wealth of their day, the JP Morgans, the Rockefellers, are very much diluted generationally, even ones that set up family offices (the Kennedys) to prevent that sort of thing.
O.k. Now that I know that the Rothschilds DO control international finance and ARE responsible for all wars I feel much better.
That is a straw man, big time.
I trust you will find your happiness on the Internet elsewhere.
Obamafone, I share your uneasiness about the hairs-breadth bridge we are currently walking. In playa gold, the “tentacles” of Zionism is a comparatively mild indication of the way that attitudes become embedded in language, often quite unconsciously.When skimming through comment threads on Tucker or Glenn Greenwald, who repeatedly draw careful distinctions between Zionists and Jews, I have noticed actual anti-semitism not so much sneaking in as raising its ugly head, jaws bared. This applies to a certain percentage of the comments, but the tone is unmistakable and nauseating. As others have said, the Zionists, in choosing to defend the atrocities committed in Gaza, have put all Jews at risk.
True, Gaza was only the latest and suddenly visible example of the indignities suffered by the Palestinians over many decades, but it caught the attention of the world. Hatred so conspicuously flaunted and indulged begets hatred.
I see no way beyond this at the moment. The heavy-handed and well-funded attempts –from laws against BDS to buying CBS– are so obviously repressive that they will only provoke a counter-reaction, as they should.
every yellow Labrador is a dog but not all dogs are Labradors
every zionist is a Jew but not all Jews are zionists
Jews i know aren’t zionists but are getting nervous –
of being smeared because, of course untrue, all Jews are zionists –
Every Zionist is a Jew except the Christian Zionists?
The version of Buddhism here is not at all nice. Adherents believe that poor people ave bad karma and feel they should not interfere via charitable actions
Well put AG. If you’re the one taking the hits, you aren’t wagging the dog.
He also argued based on Israeli maps that Gaza had no chance to resist. He apparently had not researched their tunnel systems and that surface maps do not tell the full story.
I used to listen regularly to Brian, but I found he mostly repeats the same themes (the same Rand study detailed hundreds of times), so I rarely follow him – unlike say Stanislav Krapivnik who has sources and drops little info gems.
US approves $16.5bn arms deal to Gulf states amid rising Iran tensions
The proposed deal includes the sale of drones, missiles and radars for Gulf allies, including UAE, Kuwait and Jordan.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/19/us-approves-16-5bn-arms-deal-to-gulf-states-amid-rising-iran-tensions
Netanyahu: ‘You can’t make a revolution from the air, there are ground options’
In a statement with foreign media present, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in response to a journalist’s question that “you can’t make revolutions from the air. We are doing many things from the air but there must be a ground component – I won’t share with you all the options.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/8148y4dvk
Maybe I’m just a jaded old coot American, but let’s let the IDF march thru the GCC states and do a land invasion first if that’s an “option” for them.
I’m sorta tired of Bibi writing checks that only American blood and treasure can cash.
I’m not sure the us can cash a ‘ground invasion’ check. Or, they could try, end up with the invaders wearing body bags.
I said to wife and a friend that Iran was chasing us out of its ME bases. They scoffed, but didn’t answer ‘what is us gonna do to stop the bombing? Maybe they stop it with evacuation.
Trump did not like Qatari gas field/exports ruined for 5 years, maybe he gets it now that escalation takes out all gulf energy exports.
They may try, I hope sanity prevails. Any realistic thought that the IDF would try is a joke.
Maybe Congress can call the Commander in Chief of the US Military to the hill and see who shows up to clarify who’s running this war. And then Congress can ask why we attacked Iran while negotiating with them because Iran doesn’t have a nuke, and as we all heard today, there was no imminent threat.
Maybe the ground invasion will be led by Israelis after Hezbollah gets done with them!
If we add the request from the US Armed Forces for 200 billion USD as a supplementary appropriation, it takes the belief in the Magical Money Tree to the next level: now it’s not just making money out of thin air, it’s believing the money can conjure up stuff instantly. What makes them believe these 16.5 billion will make a difference in terms of materiel for the GCC countries in time? When the first weapons are delivered, a couple of those countries may not even exist any more, or have very different governments from the ones that requested the weapons.
Will $200 billion even cover the repairs needed on Gerald R. Ford, one wonders.
If it’s like the situation with the Bonhomme Richard, the Ford may not even get repaired….
I haven’t seen the details of the request, but it seems plausible to me that much of this will go for replacement of the equipment and consumables that will be used up in the current conflict. If that’s right, it’s for production that would take years to occur given the current rate that US MIC makes things and the apparent lack of surge capacity.
(I want my, I want my MMT)
(I want my, I want my MMT)
(I want my, I want my MMT)
(I want my, I want my MMT)
Now look at them 1’s & 0’s, that’s the way to do it
Ginning up money via the MMT
That ain’t workin’, that’s the way to do it
Money for nothin’ from the mouse clique for free
Now that ain’t workin’, that’s the way you do it
Lemme tell ya, them guys ain’t dumb
Maybe get a blister on your little finger
Maybe get a blister on your thumb
Look at that, look at that
Money for nothin’ QWERTY clicks for free (I want my, I want my MMT)
Money for nothin’ clicks for free (I want my, I want my MMT)
Money for nothin’ clicks for free (I want my, I want my MMT)
Money for nothin’ clicks for free (I want my, I want my MMT)
Easy, easy money for nothin’ (I want my, I want my MMT)
Easy, easy clicks for free (I want my, I want my My MMT)
Clicks for free (I want my, I want my MMT)
That ain’t workin’
He shoulda learned to play the market
He shoulda learned to gin up MIC funds
Look at that MMT manna, we could get some, man
We could have some
Money for nothing, clicks for free
Money for nothing, clicks for free
Money For Nothing, by Dire Straits
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC1Pdsppch4&list=RDZC1Pdsppch4
Ok I liked this one, bro
Money 4 Nuthin was my ole college roommate’s doobie rolling song.
When I heard the Straits, I knew it was time to get GASSED 💨
Let’s see…$200 Billion should be enough to cover lifetime costs of a handful of THAAD systems, including inflation, cost overruns and contractor war premiums. Current life cycle cost is $23 Billion. https://www.govconexec.com/articles/thaad-terminal-high-altitude-area-defense-breaking-down-the-economics-of-missile-defense/
I expect they could manage to deliver them by 2036.
Financial Times:
‘Armageddon scenario’ for gas markets as Qatar hit by missiles
https://archive.md/9I4kI (de-paywalled)
Protest in Tokyo
11,000 turnout at National Diet against the attacks on Iran
https://x.com/musabianpo/status/2034569103533637995
Not as many headlines today. One more and then sleep, I hope.
High-speed combat drone production starts at new US Anduril plant in days
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/high-speed-combat-drone-production-starts-new-us-anduril-plant-days-2026-03-19/
I’m sure Palmer Luckey smiled when he heard about the F35 downing…
Crews at risk in the Gulf
Danny Haiphong interviews Alistaire Crooke
Crooke brings well sourced information forward (Danny baubles)
Current with the attack on the Iranian gas field facilities.
Alastair Crooke: Iran’s Missiles AVENGE Larijani, Tel Aviv BURNS as Trump Panics
Iranian Handala group has hacked Deborah Oppenheimer, the former Deputy Head of Foreign Relations and Cooperation at Mossad, and the current Head of International Affairs at Israel’s National Security Institute:
https://handala-team.to/zionist-propaganda-chief-and-former-mossad-deputy-exposed-by-handala-hack/
Oh wow, this could be very huge.
thanks!
But why do they address Deborah as a male?